Carjacking calls for a specialized analysis because it occurs at lightning speed within very brie... more Carjacking calls for a specialized analysis because it occurs at lightning speed within very brief windows of opportunity. This article describes the geographic distribution of carjacking in Campinas, Brazil, and then compares this pattern with Detroit, Michigan. We learn that raw numbers of carjackings are widely dispersed in both cities. Although these cities differ greatly in daily transportation systems, in both cities the carjacking risk estimate is greatest where motorists stop for other reasons—at gas stations or corners (Detroit); on short street blocks (Campinas). We make very limited inferences about carjacking around the world due to the limited number of cities studied thus far. However, we do suggest that carjacking reduction is most amenable to product-based forms of situational crime prevention.
O Brasil elevou sua taxa de aprisionamento em aproximadamente 200% nos últimos 20 anos. O present... more O Brasil elevou sua taxa de aprisionamento em aproximadamente 200% nos últimos 20 anos. O presente trabalho tem dois objetivos: primeiro, o de caracterizar o sistema carcerário do Brasil por estado, a partir da análise de indicadores fornecidos pelo Ministério da Justiça e Departamento Penitenciário Nacional – DEPEN. Segundo traçar o perfil socioespacial das unidades prisionais do Estado do Maranhão com base nos dados do Tribunal de Justiça e Secretaria Estadual de Administração Penitenciária - SEAP. Em consonância com outros estudos, nossos resultados apontam para o “buraco negro” que se tornou o sistema prisional brasileiro. Já no Maranhão, o aumento progressivo da população carcerária deve-se mais a uma política de repressão e criminalização à pobreza, do que a uma política capaz de reduzir as ocorrências criminais letais ou não letais.
Embora os incêndios urbanos façam centenas de vítimas fatais e causem inúmeros prejuízos materiai... more Embora os incêndios urbanos façam centenas de vítimas fatais e causem inúmeros prejuízos materiais a cada ano e em todo o mundo, poucos estudos se dedicam à formulação de um modelo simples de estimação do risco de incêndios urbanos. Nesse sentido, o objetivo do presente artigo é criar e implementar um modelo espacial de risco de incêndio intraurbano com apenas duas variáveis: população e valor de carga de incêndio. Uma área urbana brasileira de porte médio foi selecionada para análise empírica. Foram utilizados mapas e técnicas estatísticas como os índices de Moran, regressão linear e regressão de erro espacial. Os resultados evidenciam que as ocorrências de incêndio são concentradas no espaço intraurbano, bem como a variável população não foi estatisticamente significativa, mas a variável carga de incêndio foi positiva e significativa na associação com o risco de incêndio. As implicações dos resultados, em termos de políticas públicas, normas técnicas e protocolos são discutidas na...
Homicide rates have been increasing worldwide, especially in Latin America, where it is considere... more Homicide rates have been increasing worldwide, especially in Latin America, where it is considered one of the most lethal of the continents. Despite that, the occurrence of homicides are not homogeneous in time and space on the continent or in the Brazilian cities. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to present a spatial analysis of homicides in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, between the years of 2016 and 2019, by the use of an exploratory analysis of spatial homicide data with five variables that could explain its occurrence. In addition to that, it was applied the Global and Local Moran’s Index, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), all implemented in the Geographic Information System (GIS) software. Thus, the distribution of clusters revealed a spatial autocorrelation for homicide rates, confirming a spatial dependence. This data also showed the polarization of the rate between the coast and the interior of the state o...
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the spatial patterns of different phenomena in th... more Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the spatial patterns of different phenomena in the same geographical space. Andresen’s spatial point pattern test computes a global index (the S-index) that informs on the similarity or dissimilarity of spatial patterns. This paper suggests a generalized S-index that allows perfect similarity and dissimilarity in all situations. Design/methodology/approach The relevance of the generalized S-index is illustrated with police data from the San Francisco Police Department. In all cases, the original S-index, its robust version – which excludes zero-crime areas – and the generalized alternative were computed. Findings In the first example, the number of crimes greatly exceeds the number of areas and there are no zero-value areas. A key feature of the second example is that most street segments were free of any criminal activity in both patterns. Finally, in the third case, one type of event is considerably rarer than the other. The original...
Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice
The identification of hot spots of crime – areas of high crime intensity – is of primary importan... more The identification of hot spots of crime – areas of high crime intensity – is of primary importance for crime prevention strategies. While the notion of crime hot spots is well accepted in Anglo-Saxon criminology, its empirical foundation is largely drawn from U.S. studies, and comparatively little literature is available for other countries, including Canada. Taking advantage of their respective “open data” initiatives, this study compares the spatial pattern of the two largest Canadian cities, Montreal and Toronto. The authors also review and empirically explore five propositions from the existing literature: (1) that a small proportion of places account for a large proportion of recorded criminal incidents; (2) that crime concentration is inversely correlated with the size of geographic units; (3) that crime concentration drastically varies whether all places or only places where at least one crime occurred are considered; (4) that different hot spots are identified at particular...
International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology, 2017
Temporal and spatial patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil, are analyzed considering the relevanc... more Temporal and spatial patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil, are analyzed considering the relevance of routine activity theory in a Latin American context. We use geo-referenced criminal event data, 2010-2013, analyzing spatial patterns using census tracts and temporal patterns considering seasons, months, days, and hours. Our analyses include difference in means tests, count-based regression models, and Kulldorff's scan test. We find that crime in Campinas, Brazil, exhibits both temporal and spatial-temporal patterns. However, the presence of these patterns at the different temporal scales varies by crime type. Specifically, not all crime types have statistically significant temporal patterns at all scales of analysis. As such, routine activity theory works well to explain temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil. However, local knowledge of Brazilian culture is necessary for understanding a portion of these crime patterns.
The reporting of rape to police is an important component of this crime to have the criminal just... more The reporting of rape to police is an important component of this crime to have the criminal justice system involved and, potentially, punish offenders. However, for a number of reasons (fear of retribution, self-blame, etc.), most rapes are not reported to police. Most often, the research investigating this phenomenon considers incident and victim factors with little attention to the spatio-temporal factors of the rape. In this study, we consider incident, victim, and spatio-temporal factors relating to rape reporting in Campinas, Brazil. Our primary research question is whether or not the spatio-temporal factors play a significant role in the reporting of rape, over and above incident and victim factors. The subjects under study are women who were admitted to the Women's Integrated Healthcare Center at the State University of Campinas, Brazil, and surveyed by a psychologist or a social worker. Rape reporting to police was measured using a dichotomous variable. Logistic regress...
... Silas Nogueira de Melo ... CARACTERIZAÇÃO DA PAISAGEM EM SÃO JOSÉ DO RIO PRETO ... dominadas ... more ... Silas Nogueira de Melo ... CARACTERIZAÇÃO DA PAISAGEM EM SÃO JOSÉ DO RIO PRETO ... dominadas por macrófitas aquáticas, faixas ocupadas pelas redes de alta tensão (ie, Linhões), carreadores e rodovias, áreas urbanas, além das áreas de drenagem de rios e córregos ...
Carjacking calls for a specialized analysis because it occurs at lightning speed within very brie... more Carjacking calls for a specialized analysis because it occurs at lightning speed within very brief windows of opportunity. This article describes the geographic distribution of carjacking in Campinas, Brazil, and then compares this pattern with Detroit, Michigan. We learn that raw numbers of carjackings are widely dispersed in both cities. Although these cities differ greatly in daily transportation systems, in both cities the carjacking risk estimate is greatest where motorists stop for other reasons—at gas stations or corners (Detroit); on short street blocks (Campinas). We make very limited inferences about carjacking around the world due to the limited number of cities studied thus far. However, we do suggest that carjacking reduction is most amenable to product-based forms of situational crime prevention.
O Brasil elevou sua taxa de aprisionamento em aproximadamente 200% nos últimos 20 anos. O present... more O Brasil elevou sua taxa de aprisionamento em aproximadamente 200% nos últimos 20 anos. O presente trabalho tem dois objetivos: primeiro, o de caracterizar o sistema carcerário do Brasil por estado, a partir da análise de indicadores fornecidos pelo Ministério da Justiça e Departamento Penitenciário Nacional – DEPEN. Segundo traçar o perfil socioespacial das unidades prisionais do Estado do Maranhão com base nos dados do Tribunal de Justiça e Secretaria Estadual de Administração Penitenciária - SEAP. Em consonância com outros estudos, nossos resultados apontam para o “buraco negro” que se tornou o sistema prisional brasileiro. Já no Maranhão, o aumento progressivo da população carcerária deve-se mais a uma política de repressão e criminalização à pobreza, do que a uma política capaz de reduzir as ocorrências criminais letais ou não letais.
Embora os incêndios urbanos façam centenas de vítimas fatais e causem inúmeros prejuízos materiai... more Embora os incêndios urbanos façam centenas de vítimas fatais e causem inúmeros prejuízos materiais a cada ano e em todo o mundo, poucos estudos se dedicam à formulação de um modelo simples de estimação do risco de incêndios urbanos. Nesse sentido, o objetivo do presente artigo é criar e implementar um modelo espacial de risco de incêndio intraurbano com apenas duas variáveis: população e valor de carga de incêndio. Uma área urbana brasileira de porte médio foi selecionada para análise empírica. Foram utilizados mapas e técnicas estatísticas como os índices de Moran, regressão linear e regressão de erro espacial. Os resultados evidenciam que as ocorrências de incêndio são concentradas no espaço intraurbano, bem como a variável população não foi estatisticamente significativa, mas a variável carga de incêndio foi positiva e significativa na associação com o risco de incêndio. As implicações dos resultados, em termos de políticas públicas, normas técnicas e protocolos são discutidas na...
Homicide rates have been increasing worldwide, especially in Latin America, where it is considere... more Homicide rates have been increasing worldwide, especially in Latin America, where it is considered one of the most lethal of the continents. Despite that, the occurrence of homicides are not homogeneous in time and space on the continent or in the Brazilian cities. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to present a spatial analysis of homicides in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, between the years of 2016 and 2019, by the use of an exploratory analysis of spatial homicide data with five variables that could explain its occurrence. In addition to that, it was applied the Global and Local Moran’s Index, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), all implemented in the Geographic Information System (GIS) software. Thus, the distribution of clusters revealed a spatial autocorrelation for homicide rates, confirming a spatial dependence. This data also showed the polarization of the rate between the coast and the interior of the state o...
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the spatial patterns of different phenomena in th... more Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the spatial patterns of different phenomena in the same geographical space. Andresen’s spatial point pattern test computes a global index (the S-index) that informs on the similarity or dissimilarity of spatial patterns. This paper suggests a generalized S-index that allows perfect similarity and dissimilarity in all situations. Design/methodology/approach The relevance of the generalized S-index is illustrated with police data from the San Francisco Police Department. In all cases, the original S-index, its robust version – which excludes zero-crime areas – and the generalized alternative were computed. Findings In the first example, the number of crimes greatly exceeds the number of areas and there are no zero-value areas. A key feature of the second example is that most street segments were free of any criminal activity in both patterns. Finally, in the third case, one type of event is considerably rarer than the other. The original...
Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice
The identification of hot spots of crime – areas of high crime intensity – is of primary importan... more The identification of hot spots of crime – areas of high crime intensity – is of primary importance for crime prevention strategies. While the notion of crime hot spots is well accepted in Anglo-Saxon criminology, its empirical foundation is largely drawn from U.S. studies, and comparatively little literature is available for other countries, including Canada. Taking advantage of their respective “open data” initiatives, this study compares the spatial pattern of the two largest Canadian cities, Montreal and Toronto. The authors also review and empirically explore five propositions from the existing literature: (1) that a small proportion of places account for a large proportion of recorded criminal incidents; (2) that crime concentration is inversely correlated with the size of geographic units; (3) that crime concentration drastically varies whether all places or only places where at least one crime occurred are considered; (4) that different hot spots are identified at particular...
International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology, 2017
Temporal and spatial patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil, are analyzed considering the relevanc... more Temporal and spatial patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil, are analyzed considering the relevance of routine activity theory in a Latin American context. We use geo-referenced criminal event data, 2010-2013, analyzing spatial patterns using census tracts and temporal patterns considering seasons, months, days, and hours. Our analyses include difference in means tests, count-based regression models, and Kulldorff's scan test. We find that crime in Campinas, Brazil, exhibits both temporal and spatial-temporal patterns. However, the presence of these patterns at the different temporal scales varies by crime type. Specifically, not all crime types have statistically significant temporal patterns at all scales of analysis. As such, routine activity theory works well to explain temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of crime in Campinas, Brazil. However, local knowledge of Brazilian culture is necessary for understanding a portion of these crime patterns.
The reporting of rape to police is an important component of this crime to have the criminal just... more The reporting of rape to police is an important component of this crime to have the criminal justice system involved and, potentially, punish offenders. However, for a number of reasons (fear of retribution, self-blame, etc.), most rapes are not reported to police. Most often, the research investigating this phenomenon considers incident and victim factors with little attention to the spatio-temporal factors of the rape. In this study, we consider incident, victim, and spatio-temporal factors relating to rape reporting in Campinas, Brazil. Our primary research question is whether or not the spatio-temporal factors play a significant role in the reporting of rape, over and above incident and victim factors. The subjects under study are women who were admitted to the Women's Integrated Healthcare Center at the State University of Campinas, Brazil, and surveyed by a psychologist or a social worker. Rape reporting to police was measured using a dichotomous variable. Logistic regress...
... Silas Nogueira de Melo ... CARACTERIZAÇÃO DA PAISAGEM EM SÃO JOSÉ DO RIO PRETO ... dominadas ... more ... Silas Nogueira de Melo ... CARACTERIZAÇÃO DA PAISAGEM EM SÃO JOSÉ DO RIO PRETO ... dominadas por macrófitas aquáticas, faixas ocupadas pelas redes de alta tensão (ie, Linhões), carreadores e rodovias, áreas urbanas, além das áreas de drenagem de rios e córregos ...
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