<p>Climate modes can have a large influence on the interannual variability in rainf... more <p>Climate modes can have a large influence on the interannual variability in rainfall and streamflow.  Moreover, changes in their spatial-temporal patterns are likely to shape changes in hydroclimate in the future as a result of a warming climate. Modeling the links between climate modes, rainfall and streamflow is therefore important for understanding the trajectories in water availability. We examined the effects of four climate variability modes, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on variations in annual rainfall and streamflow in four hydroclimate regions in temperate Australian. Climate mode indices, rainfall, and streamflow data from 1975 to 2018 were analyzed for 92 predominately forested catchments in four study regions. The annual variation and long-term fluctuations of rainfall and streamflow in each region were explored using the coefficient of variation, trend analysis, and random forest models to examine relationships to ENSO, IOD, SAM, and IPO. Coefficient of variation analysis showed that the annual variation of streamflow in and among catchments in each region was higher than rainfall. Rainfall and streamflow in each region were strongly influenced by different climate modes, and a higher proportion of variation in rainfall was explained by climate modes. Extreme annual rainfall and streamflow in these regions are related to concurrent phases of regional climate phenomena. These results provide critical baseline information and context for a better understanding of how future spatial and temporal changes in rainfall and streamflow across temperate Australia may manifest.</p>
Abstract Rural communities in the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan are dependant on natural capital fo... more Abstract Rural communities in the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan are dependant on natural capital for their livelihoods. Climate change impacts on ecosystem could have serious consequences for these communities but little research has been done to explore these potential impacts. In this study, we used Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models to model current and potential future distribution of major timber species (Abies densa, Pinus wallichiana, Tsuga dumosa), fuelwood species (Quercus spp, Betula spp, Betula utilis, Rhododendron spp, Rhododendron arboreum) and an important non-timber resource (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Bhutan Himalayan region. Models were based on species presence and absence data from 575 plots and a new high-resolution climate dataset developed for Bhutan. Future projections were based on IPCC's representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s in Bhutan. Mean annual temperature and precipitation of driest quarters were found to be the most influential variables in modelling the current distribution of these species, with the distribution of most of the species projected to decrease significantly and shift to higher elevations. The current distribution of Ophiocordyceps sinensis was modelled to decrease by 79% at the national level with only 21% range overlap between current and future distributions. Current distribution of timber species like Abies densa and Tsuga dumosa were modelled to decline by 98% and 99% respectively at national level with very low range overlaps between current and future distribution suggesting high species vulnerability to climate change. In contrast, fuel wood species like Betula spp, Quercus spp, Rhododendron arboreum all exhibited less vulnerability to climate change with over 50% of their current range overlapping with future distribution across Bhutan and in the Nikachu watershed. These potential changes in distribution patterns of these species could impact on the functions and ecosystem services provided by these species and socio-economic conditions of rural communities reliant on these species for their livelihoods in Bhutan. Lower rates of global greenhouse gas emissions and adoption of adaptation measures and management interventions can reduce these potential impacts.
Wildlife can persist in a range of landscape configurations, but population densities can vary du... more Wildlife can persist in a range of landscape configurations, but population densities can vary due to resource availability. Resources and environmental conditions shaping habitat suitability may be spatially dispersed or clumped, which can drive habitat availability. We explored how spatial configuration and aggregation of favorable feeding resources and climatic conditions affect populations of the greater glider (Petauroides volans), an arboreal marsupial in southeast Australia, vulnerable to climate change and disturbances. We hypothesized home‐range functionality from literature and field observations and used a generalized spatial framework based on neutral landscape models to test how spatial aggregation influences home‐range sizes and population structure. At the landscape scale, any decrease in climatic suitability also decreased potential population density, independent of the initial spatial configuration of the feeding landscape. At the stand scale however, the spatial c...
Links between climate variability modes, rainfall, and streamflow are important for understanding... more Links between climate variability modes, rainfall, and streamflow are important for understanding the trajectories of change and dynamics in water availability. In this study, we examined the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation modes on interannual variations in rainfall and streamflow in four hydroclimate regions. We also explored the link between climate variability modes and extreme rainfall and streamflow years. Climate mode indices, rainfall, and streamflow data from 1975 to 2018 were analyzed for 92 predominately forested catchments located across temperate Australia. Climate modes had divergent influences on streamflow and rainfall between and within regions. Across temperate Australia, a higher proportion of interannual variation in rainfall was explained by climate modes than for streamflow, indicating factors other than atmosphere‐ocean phenomena are important in determining interan...
Ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly recognized as a means to adapt to the ongoing impact of ... more Ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly recognized as a means to adapt to the ongoing impact of climate change and associated impacts. However, these ES itself are facing adverse impact of climate change especially in developing countries where most of the people are dependent on these services for their livelihood. Very little is known about the relationship between the climate change and ES. Here we assess the impact of climate change on ecosystem services in ES rich landscape of Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of western Nepal. The study area was divided into three ecoregions from lowland through midland to the upland region. Focus group discussion, and key informant interview were used to elicit the required data for the study, which was further supported by transect walk, field observation and secondary source of information. Major impacts of climate change were observed are, reduced availability of water, reduced food production, forest ecosystem, shifting species composi...
The sensitivity of early plant regeneration to environmental change makes regeneration a critical... more The sensitivity of early plant regeneration to environmental change makes regeneration a critical stage for understanding species response to climate change. We investigated the spatial and temporal response of eucalypt trees in the Central Highland region of south eastern Australia to high and low climate change scenarios. We developed a novel mechanistic model incorporating germination processes, TACA‐GEM, to evaluate establishment probabilities of five key eucalypt species, Eucalyptus pauciflora, Eucalyptus delegatensis, Eucalyptus regnans, Eucalyptus nitens and Eucalyptus obliqua. Changes to regeneration potential at landscape and site levels were calculated to determine climate thresholds. Model results demonstrated that climate change is likely to impact plant regeneration. We observed increases and decreases in regeneration potential depending on the ecosystem, indicating that some species will increase in abundance in some forest types, whilst other forest types will become ...
Context Effective conservation planning for species depends on vegetation models that can capture... more Context Effective conservation planning for species depends on vegetation models that can capture the dynamics of habitat elements across both spatial and temporal domains. Incorporating these dynamics at landscape scales is essential for understanding the impact of natural disturbance, management, and climate change on habitat availability and stability on fauna. Objectives To explore the impact of resource availability, wildfire, forest management (timber harvesting and planned burning), and climate change on the habitat of the critically endangered Leadbeater’s possum (LBP; Gymnobelideus leadbeateri McCoy) with the goal of understanding the importance of these factors on future habitat availability. Methods We used a spatially explicit landscape-simulation model, LANDIS-II, linked to habitat suitability and patch modelling, to identify quantity, configuration, and temporal stability of habitat for LBP. We used boosted regression trees and general additive modelling to explore the importance of management and disturbance factors on future LBP habitat availability. Results Wildfire was the main factor determining all habitat components for LBP, both alone and in interaction with climate change and forest management. We identified stable habitat patches that will likely persist under future conditions, and that might be prioritised for conservation in a dynamic landscape. Conclusions We highlight how the current reserve network could be augmented to improve the future conservation status of LBP. Our approach provides conservation planners with a spatially and temporally explicit framework for incorporating the key dynamic processes that are typically omitted in conservation planning.
<p>Climate modes can have a large influence on the interannual variability in rainf... more <p>Climate modes can have a large influence on the interannual variability in rainfall and streamflow.  Moreover, changes in their spatial-temporal patterns are likely to shape changes in hydroclimate in the future as a result of a warming climate. Modeling the links between climate modes, rainfall and streamflow is therefore important for understanding the trajectories in water availability. We examined the effects of four climate variability modes, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on variations in annual rainfall and streamflow in four hydroclimate regions in temperate Australian. Climate mode indices, rainfall, and streamflow data from 1975 to 2018 were analyzed for 92 predominately forested catchments in four study regions. The annual variation and long-term fluctuations of rainfall and streamflow in each region were explored using the coefficient of variation, trend analysis, and random forest models to examine relationships to ENSO, IOD, SAM, and IPO. Coefficient of variation analysis showed that the annual variation of streamflow in and among catchments in each region was higher than rainfall. Rainfall and streamflow in each region were strongly influenced by different climate modes, and a higher proportion of variation in rainfall was explained by climate modes. Extreme annual rainfall and streamflow in these regions are related to concurrent phases of regional climate phenomena. These results provide critical baseline information and context for a better understanding of how future spatial and temporal changes in rainfall and streamflow across temperate Australia may manifest.</p>
Abstract Rural communities in the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan are dependant on natural capital fo... more Abstract Rural communities in the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan are dependant on natural capital for their livelihoods. Climate change impacts on ecosystem could have serious consequences for these communities but little research has been done to explore these potential impacts. In this study, we used Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models to model current and potential future distribution of major timber species (Abies densa, Pinus wallichiana, Tsuga dumosa), fuelwood species (Quercus spp, Betula spp, Betula utilis, Rhododendron spp, Rhododendron arboreum) and an important non-timber resource (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Bhutan Himalayan region. Models were based on species presence and absence data from 575 plots and a new high-resolution climate dataset developed for Bhutan. Future projections were based on IPCC's representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s in Bhutan. Mean annual temperature and precipitation of driest quarters were found to be the most influential variables in modelling the current distribution of these species, with the distribution of most of the species projected to decrease significantly and shift to higher elevations. The current distribution of Ophiocordyceps sinensis was modelled to decrease by 79% at the national level with only 21% range overlap between current and future distributions. Current distribution of timber species like Abies densa and Tsuga dumosa were modelled to decline by 98% and 99% respectively at national level with very low range overlaps between current and future distribution suggesting high species vulnerability to climate change. In contrast, fuel wood species like Betula spp, Quercus spp, Rhododendron arboreum all exhibited less vulnerability to climate change with over 50% of their current range overlapping with future distribution across Bhutan and in the Nikachu watershed. These potential changes in distribution patterns of these species could impact on the functions and ecosystem services provided by these species and socio-economic conditions of rural communities reliant on these species for their livelihoods in Bhutan. Lower rates of global greenhouse gas emissions and adoption of adaptation measures and management interventions can reduce these potential impacts.
Wildlife can persist in a range of landscape configurations, but population densities can vary du... more Wildlife can persist in a range of landscape configurations, but population densities can vary due to resource availability. Resources and environmental conditions shaping habitat suitability may be spatially dispersed or clumped, which can drive habitat availability. We explored how spatial configuration and aggregation of favorable feeding resources and climatic conditions affect populations of the greater glider (Petauroides volans), an arboreal marsupial in southeast Australia, vulnerable to climate change and disturbances. We hypothesized home‐range functionality from literature and field observations and used a generalized spatial framework based on neutral landscape models to test how spatial aggregation influences home‐range sizes and population structure. At the landscape scale, any decrease in climatic suitability also decreased potential population density, independent of the initial spatial configuration of the feeding landscape. At the stand scale however, the spatial c...
Links between climate variability modes, rainfall, and streamflow are important for understanding... more Links between climate variability modes, rainfall, and streamflow are important for understanding the trajectories of change and dynamics in water availability. In this study, we examined the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation modes on interannual variations in rainfall and streamflow in four hydroclimate regions. We also explored the link between climate variability modes and extreme rainfall and streamflow years. Climate mode indices, rainfall, and streamflow data from 1975 to 2018 were analyzed for 92 predominately forested catchments located across temperate Australia. Climate modes had divergent influences on streamflow and rainfall between and within regions. Across temperate Australia, a higher proportion of interannual variation in rainfall was explained by climate modes than for streamflow, indicating factors other than atmosphere‐ocean phenomena are important in determining interan...
Ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly recognized as a means to adapt to the ongoing impact of ... more Ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly recognized as a means to adapt to the ongoing impact of climate change and associated impacts. However, these ES itself are facing adverse impact of climate change especially in developing countries where most of the people are dependent on these services for their livelihood. Very little is known about the relationship between the climate change and ES. Here we assess the impact of climate change on ecosystem services in ES rich landscape of Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of western Nepal. The study area was divided into three ecoregions from lowland through midland to the upland region. Focus group discussion, and key informant interview were used to elicit the required data for the study, which was further supported by transect walk, field observation and secondary source of information. Major impacts of climate change were observed are, reduced availability of water, reduced food production, forest ecosystem, shifting species composi...
The sensitivity of early plant regeneration to environmental change makes regeneration a critical... more The sensitivity of early plant regeneration to environmental change makes regeneration a critical stage for understanding species response to climate change. We investigated the spatial and temporal response of eucalypt trees in the Central Highland region of south eastern Australia to high and low climate change scenarios. We developed a novel mechanistic model incorporating germination processes, TACA‐GEM, to evaluate establishment probabilities of five key eucalypt species, Eucalyptus pauciflora, Eucalyptus delegatensis, Eucalyptus regnans, Eucalyptus nitens and Eucalyptus obliqua. Changes to regeneration potential at landscape and site levels were calculated to determine climate thresholds. Model results demonstrated that climate change is likely to impact plant regeneration. We observed increases and decreases in regeneration potential depending on the ecosystem, indicating that some species will increase in abundance in some forest types, whilst other forest types will become ...
Context Effective conservation planning for species depends on vegetation models that can capture... more Context Effective conservation planning for species depends on vegetation models that can capture the dynamics of habitat elements across both spatial and temporal domains. Incorporating these dynamics at landscape scales is essential for understanding the impact of natural disturbance, management, and climate change on habitat availability and stability on fauna. Objectives To explore the impact of resource availability, wildfire, forest management (timber harvesting and planned burning), and climate change on the habitat of the critically endangered Leadbeater’s possum (LBP; Gymnobelideus leadbeateri McCoy) with the goal of understanding the importance of these factors on future habitat availability. Methods We used a spatially explicit landscape-simulation model, LANDIS-II, linked to habitat suitability and patch modelling, to identify quantity, configuration, and temporal stability of habitat for LBP. We used boosted regression trees and general additive modelling to explore the importance of management and disturbance factors on future LBP habitat availability. Results Wildfire was the main factor determining all habitat components for LBP, both alone and in interaction with climate change and forest management. We identified stable habitat patches that will likely persist under future conditions, and that might be prioritised for conservation in a dynamic landscape. Conclusions We highlight how the current reserve network could be augmented to improve the future conservation status of LBP. Our approach provides conservation planners with a spatially and temporally explicit framework for incorporating the key dynamic processes that are typically omitted in conservation planning.
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