Abstract-This paper addresses some results obtained within the EU funded project DITTY as concern... more Abstract-This paper addresses some results obtained within the EU funded project DITTY as concerns the development of a decision support system for the management of Southern European lagoons. The first contribution is a general model-based decision support structure, whose development was motivated by the need for a common and flexible framework to ease the integration of the outputs of different project work-packages, as well as to deal with the diversity of socio-economic and environmental characteristics of the project case studies. The proposed structure helps integrate and manage in a clear and structured fashion the information provided by different kinds of mathematical and analytical models (e.g., biogeochemical, hydrodynamic, ecological, socio-economic models of a lagoon ecosystem). Data and information obtained from the models can be used to accomplish the decision task by application of multicriteria analysis approaches. Robustness of the decision is explicitly taken int...
... 1 Benché il presente contributo sia frutto di analisi e riflessioni comuni, Elena Giovannoni ... more ... 1 Benché il presente contributo sia frutto di analisi e riflessioni comuni, Elena Giovannoni ha curato il paragrafo 1, Emiliano Sparacino il paragrafo 2, Chiara ... genererà la matrice nxn A che verrà poi utilizzata per creare il vettore dei pesi percentuali (priorità) di ogni singolo criterio ...
The concentration of atmospheric CC^ is expected to double from 365 to 700 ppm by volume by the m... more The concentration of atmospheric CC^ is expected to double from 365 to 700 ppm by volume by the middle of the next century. Projections of CC^-induced climate change are less certain, but most of them predict a 2-4°C temperature increase, i.e. "global warming" [1]. On the other hand the effects of temperature in ecosystems are well known [2] regarding the solubility of O? and the limitations imposed to the photosynthetic process. We study the simulation effects of such a temperature increase of 2-3 °C in a structural mathematical model describing the dynamics of a coastal shallow water ecosystem located in the Natural Park of Circeo (Rome, Italy) [3]. Preliminary results of the simulations with the changed temperature show that in a 3 years time period an anomaly in the phytoplankton concentration will occur. Such behaviour, due to the stronger activation of photosynthetic activity, leads to an exceptional growth of phytoplankton and brings the whole system towards the ext...
In this paper we propose a model of natural recovery, a widespread yet unexplained aspect of addi... more In this paper we propose a model of natural recovery, a widespread yet unexplained aspect of addictive behavior, starting from the recent theory developed by Bernheim and Rangel (2004). While the Bernheim and Rangel model generates many distinctive patterns of addiction, it does not explicitly consider pathways to natural recovery. Based on insights from neurosciences, we introduce an ”implicit cognitive appraisal” process depending on past experiences as well as on future expected consequences of addictive consumption. Such function affects the individual in two ways: it erodes the payoff from use as the decision maker grows older and it increases the cognitive control competing with the hedonic impulses to use, thus reducing the probability of making mistakes. While we do recognize the importance of allowing for cue-triggered mistakes in individual decision making, our model recovers an important role for cognitive processes, such as subjective cost-benefit evaluations, in explain...
Cooperative behavior in real social dilemmas is often perceived as a phenomenon emerging from nor... more Cooperative behavior in real social dilemmas is often perceived as a phenomenon emerging from norms and punishment. To overcome this paradigm, we highlight the interplay between the influence of social networks on individuals, and the activation of spontaneous self-regulating mechanisms, which may lead them to behave cooperatively, while interacting with others and taking conflicting decisions over time. By extending Evolutionary game theory over networks, we prove that cooperation partially or fully emerges whether self-regulating mechanisms are sufficiently stronger than social pressure. Interestingly, even few cooperative individuals act as catalyzing agents for the cooperation of others, thus activating a recruiting mechanism, eventually driving the whole population to cooperate.
Obiettivi di apprendimento: Comprendere quale possa essere l’uso di strumenti e tecniche di simul... more Obiettivi di apprendimento: Comprendere quale possa essere l’uso di strumenti e tecniche di simulazione per la risoluzione di problemi manageriali ed a supporto della funzione di controllo di gestione. Assimilare i principi di base della Teoria dei Sistemi Dinamici e della metodologia denominata System Dynamics. Capire quali siano le caratteristiche fondamentali di un progetto volto a sviluppare un modello di simulazione relativo ad un tipico problema dinamico aziendale, come quello connesso alla gestione della Supply Chain.
We investigate strong Nash equilibria in the max k-cut game on an undirected and unweighted graph... more We investigate strong Nash equilibria in the max k-cut game on an undirected and unweighted graph with a set of k colors, where vertices represent players and the edges indicate their relations. Each player v chooses one of the available colors as its own strategy, and its payoff (or utility) is the number of neighbors of v that has chosen a different color. Such games are significant since the model loads of real-worlds scenario with selfish agents and, moreover, they are related to fundamental classes of games. Few results are known concerning the existence of strong equilibria in max k-cut games in this direction. In this paper we make some progress in the understanding the properties of strong equilibria. In particular, our main result is to show that optimal solutions are 7-strong equilibria. This means that in order a coalition of nodes is able to deviate and drive the system towards a different configuration, i.e. a different coloring, a number of nodes of the coalition stric...
A substantial fraction of individuals with a history of pathological addiction quits without prof... more A substantial fraction of individuals with a history of pathological addiction quits without professional assistance. This paper proposes a model of natural recovery, this widespread yet unexplained aspect of addictive behavior. The model is grounded on the neuroscience and on recent theories regarding addiction as a progressive susceptibility to stochastic environmental cues that can trigger mistaken usage. We introduce a ”cognitive appraisal” process in individual decision making depending on past addiction experiences as well as on the future expected consequences of addictive consumption. Individual choice is affected in two ways: the reward from use decreases as the decision maker grows older and cognitive incentives emerge reducing the probability of making mistakes. While allowing for cue-triggered mistakes in individual decision making, our model recovers a role for other factors, such as subjective self evaluation, with implications for social policy and the treatment of dr...
We study the max k-cut game on an undirected and unweighted graph in order to find out whether an... more We study the max k-cut game on an undirected and unweighted graph in order to find out whether an optimal solution is also a strong equilibrium. While we do fail to show that, by proving an alternate formula for computing the cut value difference for a strong deviation, we show that optimal solutions are 7-stable equilibria. Furthermore, we prove some properties of minimal subsets with respect to a strong deviation, showing that each of their nodes will deviate towards the color of one of their neighbors and that those subsets induce connected subgraphs.
Air pollution control is a major environmental concern. The quality of air is an important factor... more Air pollution control is a major environmental concern. The quality of air is an important factor for everyday life in cities, since it af- fects the health of the community and directly influences the sustainability of our lifestyles and production methods. In this paper we propose a cy- clostationary neural network (CNN) model for the prediction of the NO2 concentration. The cyclostationary nature of the problem guides the con- struction of the CNN architecture, which is composed by a number of MLP blocks equal to the cyclostationary period in the analyzed phenomenon, and is independent of exogenous inputs. Some preliminary experimenta- tion shows that the CNN model significantly outperforms standard statis- tical tools usually employed for this task.
Abstract-This paper addresses some results obtained within the EU funded project DITTY as concern... more Abstract-This paper addresses some results obtained within the EU funded project DITTY as concerns the development of a decision support system for the management of Southern European lagoons. The first contribution is a general model-based decision support structure, whose development was motivated by the need for a common and flexible framework to ease the integration of the outputs of different project work-packages, as well as to deal with the diversity of socio-economic and environmental characteristics of the project case studies. The proposed structure helps integrate and manage in a clear and structured fashion the information provided by different kinds of mathematical and analytical models (e.g., biogeochemical, hydrodynamic, ecological, socio-economic models of a lagoon ecosystem). Data and information obtained from the models can be used to accomplish the decision task by application of multicriteria analysis approaches. Robustness of the decision is explicitly taken int...
... 1 Benché il presente contributo sia frutto di analisi e riflessioni comuni, Elena Giovannoni ... more ... 1 Benché il presente contributo sia frutto di analisi e riflessioni comuni, Elena Giovannoni ha curato il paragrafo 1, Emiliano Sparacino il paragrafo 2, Chiara ... genererà la matrice nxn A che verrà poi utilizzata per creare il vettore dei pesi percentuali (priorità) di ogni singolo criterio ...
The concentration of atmospheric CC^ is expected to double from 365 to 700 ppm by volume by the m... more The concentration of atmospheric CC^ is expected to double from 365 to 700 ppm by volume by the middle of the next century. Projections of CC^-induced climate change are less certain, but most of them predict a 2-4°C temperature increase, i.e. "global warming" [1]. On the other hand the effects of temperature in ecosystems are well known [2] regarding the solubility of O? and the limitations imposed to the photosynthetic process. We study the simulation effects of such a temperature increase of 2-3 °C in a structural mathematical model describing the dynamics of a coastal shallow water ecosystem located in the Natural Park of Circeo (Rome, Italy) [3]. Preliminary results of the simulations with the changed temperature show that in a 3 years time period an anomaly in the phytoplankton concentration will occur. Such behaviour, due to the stronger activation of photosynthetic activity, leads to an exceptional growth of phytoplankton and brings the whole system towards the ext...
In this paper we propose a model of natural recovery, a widespread yet unexplained aspect of addi... more In this paper we propose a model of natural recovery, a widespread yet unexplained aspect of addictive behavior, starting from the recent theory developed by Bernheim and Rangel (2004). While the Bernheim and Rangel model generates many distinctive patterns of addiction, it does not explicitly consider pathways to natural recovery. Based on insights from neurosciences, we introduce an ”implicit cognitive appraisal” process depending on past experiences as well as on future expected consequences of addictive consumption. Such function affects the individual in two ways: it erodes the payoff from use as the decision maker grows older and it increases the cognitive control competing with the hedonic impulses to use, thus reducing the probability of making mistakes. While we do recognize the importance of allowing for cue-triggered mistakes in individual decision making, our model recovers an important role for cognitive processes, such as subjective cost-benefit evaluations, in explain...
Cooperative behavior in real social dilemmas is often perceived as a phenomenon emerging from nor... more Cooperative behavior in real social dilemmas is often perceived as a phenomenon emerging from norms and punishment. To overcome this paradigm, we highlight the interplay between the influence of social networks on individuals, and the activation of spontaneous self-regulating mechanisms, which may lead them to behave cooperatively, while interacting with others and taking conflicting decisions over time. By extending Evolutionary game theory over networks, we prove that cooperation partially or fully emerges whether self-regulating mechanisms are sufficiently stronger than social pressure. Interestingly, even few cooperative individuals act as catalyzing agents for the cooperation of others, thus activating a recruiting mechanism, eventually driving the whole population to cooperate.
Obiettivi di apprendimento: Comprendere quale possa essere l’uso di strumenti e tecniche di simul... more Obiettivi di apprendimento: Comprendere quale possa essere l’uso di strumenti e tecniche di simulazione per la risoluzione di problemi manageriali ed a supporto della funzione di controllo di gestione. Assimilare i principi di base della Teoria dei Sistemi Dinamici e della metodologia denominata System Dynamics. Capire quali siano le caratteristiche fondamentali di un progetto volto a sviluppare un modello di simulazione relativo ad un tipico problema dinamico aziendale, come quello connesso alla gestione della Supply Chain.
We investigate strong Nash equilibria in the max k-cut game on an undirected and unweighted graph... more We investigate strong Nash equilibria in the max k-cut game on an undirected and unweighted graph with a set of k colors, where vertices represent players and the edges indicate their relations. Each player v chooses one of the available colors as its own strategy, and its payoff (or utility) is the number of neighbors of v that has chosen a different color. Such games are significant since the model loads of real-worlds scenario with selfish agents and, moreover, they are related to fundamental classes of games. Few results are known concerning the existence of strong equilibria in max k-cut games in this direction. In this paper we make some progress in the understanding the properties of strong equilibria. In particular, our main result is to show that optimal solutions are 7-strong equilibria. This means that in order a coalition of nodes is able to deviate and drive the system towards a different configuration, i.e. a different coloring, a number of nodes of the coalition stric...
A substantial fraction of individuals with a history of pathological addiction quits without prof... more A substantial fraction of individuals with a history of pathological addiction quits without professional assistance. This paper proposes a model of natural recovery, this widespread yet unexplained aspect of addictive behavior. The model is grounded on the neuroscience and on recent theories regarding addiction as a progressive susceptibility to stochastic environmental cues that can trigger mistaken usage. We introduce a ”cognitive appraisal” process in individual decision making depending on past addiction experiences as well as on the future expected consequences of addictive consumption. Individual choice is affected in two ways: the reward from use decreases as the decision maker grows older and cognitive incentives emerge reducing the probability of making mistakes. While allowing for cue-triggered mistakes in individual decision making, our model recovers a role for other factors, such as subjective self evaluation, with implications for social policy and the treatment of dr...
We study the max k-cut game on an undirected and unweighted graph in order to find out whether an... more We study the max k-cut game on an undirected and unweighted graph in order to find out whether an optimal solution is also a strong equilibrium. While we do fail to show that, by proving an alternate formula for computing the cut value difference for a strong deviation, we show that optimal solutions are 7-stable equilibria. Furthermore, we prove some properties of minimal subsets with respect to a strong deviation, showing that each of their nodes will deviate towards the color of one of their neighbors and that those subsets induce connected subgraphs.
Air pollution control is a major environmental concern. The quality of air is an important factor... more Air pollution control is a major environmental concern. The quality of air is an important factor for everyday life in cities, since it af- fects the health of the community and directly influences the sustainability of our lifestyles and production methods. In this paper we propose a cy- clostationary neural network (CNN) model for the prediction of the NO2 concentration. The cyclostationary nature of the problem guides the con- struction of the CNN architecture, which is composed by a number of MLP blocks equal to the cyclostationary period in the analyzed phenomenon, and is independent of exogenous inputs. Some preliminary experimenta- tion shows that the CNN model significantly outperforms standard statis- tical tools usually employed for this task.
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