A FORMER DIPLOMAT. WAS RESIDENT AMBASSADOR TO FOUR COUNTRIES. NOW RETIRED. AUTHORED TWO BOOKS. PUBLISHED HUNDREDS OF ARTICLES IN LOCAL AND FOREIGN NEWS PAPERS AND JOURNALS. INTERESTED IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND GLOBAL AND SOUTH ASIAN POLITICO -ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS.
IS WORLD WAR THREE POSSIBLE?
ARTICLE BY AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWRUL MASUD.
THE RISE AND DECLINE OF ... more IS WORLD WAR THREE POSSIBLE?
ARTICLE BY AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWRUL MASUD.
THE RISE AND DECLINE OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER?
Preventing the Spread of nuclear weapons: The Nonproliferation Treaty and Regime Somewhat miraculously, it proved possible to negotiate a legally binding multilateral treaty that acknowledged and accepted the five nuclear weapon states that existed at the time but prohibited all other signatories from building or otherwise acquiring nuclear weapons. Across time, also perhaps somewhat miraculously, nearly every state in the international system (191 member states) signed the treaty; every state that does not possess nuclear weapons (with the single exception of South Sudan) has signed a legal instrument in which they accept a binding obligation to remain non-nuclear. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty entered into force in 1970 and became the legal foundation for an evolving regime of technology controls and mandated inspections of nuclear facilities aimed both at preventing the spread of weapons-related nuclear technology and at discouraging the use of civilian nuclear facilities for illicit weapons-related purposes. Adaptions in the regime often came after some undesirable development or challenge to the system. After the 1974 Indian nuclear test, for example, a Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) was established to harmonize export controls on sensitive nuclear technologies and to deny weapons-related technologies to potentially worrisome recipients. Similarly, after the discovery of Iraq’s illicit nuclear weapons program in 1990, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) developed a new set of information requirements and inspection measures, enumerated in a document called the Additional Protocol, that enhanced the IAEA’s access to information and its powers of inspection.
IN RECENT DECADES CHINA HAS DEVELOPED RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA AS A COUNTER TO THE WEST
In recent d... more IN RECENT DECADES CHINA HAS DEVELOPED RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA AS A COUNTER TO THE WEST In recent decades, China has shunned formal alliances for both pragmatic and ideological reasons and has criticized the United States’ vast alliance network as a “vestige of the Cold War.” But Beijing has increasingly resorted to semantic gymnastics to talk about its alignment with Russia. Chinese statements regularly insist that the bilateral partnership is “not an alliance” and “not targeted” against any third party while also making the case that China and Russia’s relationship “surpasses” traditional alliances. Even before the joint statement in February 2022, Beijing had stressed that no areas of cooperation were off limits and that the partnership would stand firm in the face of international headwinds. .
The two frigates are central to India's ability to launch nuclear weapons from land, sea and air.... more The two frigates are central to India's ability to launch nuclear weapons from land, sea and air. India’s recent launch of its second nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine may have boosted its deterrence capabilities, but analysts say the country has a long way to go in closing the gap on China's naval power. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh expressed confidence that the new submarine would fortify India's nuclear deterrence and play a decisive role in national security. The submarine's introduction was timely, according to former chief of India's naval staff Admiral Arun Prakash, amid challenges posed by the country's two nuclear-armed neighbors: Pakistan and China. He highlighted the stark contrasts in nuclear policies among these nations. "India's 2003 doctrine states that it will not be the first to use a nuclear weapon ever whereas Pakistan has made no such commitment and it keeps threatening it would use nuclear weapons when required," he told This Week in Asia. "China also adopts the 'no first use' policy but its intentions are not clear." In an article another analyst opined that the growing China-Pakistan nexus raises the threat to India. Their strategic and territorial interests have been cemented by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). With the flow of Chinese military power into Pakistan, China veritably straddles India, with its armed forces present on India’s northern, eastern and western borders. This not only raises the real specter of a ‘two-front’ war, but positions China to play a role in Kashmir and the region. The only other country with which China has a special category of strategic partnership is Russia.
ASSESSING CHINA’S EXPANDING NUCLEAR ARSENAL
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL
I am deeply indebted to Robe... more ASSESSING CHINA’S EXPANDING NUCLEAR ARSENAL AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL I am deeply indebted to Robert Peters, Sarah Alison and Andrew J Harding of the Heritage Foundation for indicating the way forward in writing my article on assessing China’s expanding nuclear arsenal. Their article has been not only to me but I presume many scholars in articulating the difficulties one faces in trying to understand the complexities of China’s ambition in not only edging out the USA from the leadership in South Asia but also to establish herself for a seat, along with Russia, in their challenge to the multipolar world now peopled by the USA, the European Union and the rest of the Western world. CHANGE IN CHINA’S NUCLEAR POLICY SINCE XI- JINPING’S RULE Since General Secretary Xi Jinping’s tenure, China has slowly but nevertheless effectively walked back its “no first use” policy to say that it would only use nuclear weapons if China was the victim of a “strategic attack”—without defining what constitutes a strategic attack. Such a change in nuclear declaratory policy is of course China’s right. Until a few years ago, the United States did not see any change to Chinese fielded nuclear forces—until a 2021 report that made it clear that China was fielding theater-range ballistic and cruise missiles that could carry nuclear or conventional explosives. These theater missiles, it turns out, are optimized to strike large capital ships—such as American aircraft carriers—and large fixed land targets, such as American bases on Guam or Japan. Couple the sensor packages that can target ships steaming at 30 knots over the horizon with a theater-range missile carrying a nuclear weapon, and it became clear that China was building and fielding nuclear theater warfighting weapons—not the type of weapons that are part of a minimal deterrence posture meant to prevent nuclear attack in the first place.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the West not to cross a "red line" with Russia, sayin... more Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the West not to cross a "red line" with Russia, saying such a move would trigger an "asymmetrical, rapid and harsh" response he warning came in his annual state of the nation address, amid heightened tension with the West over Ukraine and jailed Putin critic Alexei Navalny. Putin said Western powers were constantly trying to "pick on" Russia. Police have detained nearly 100 Navalny supporters rallying in several cities. Hundreds staged pro-Navalny protests on Wednesday in eastern cities including Vladivostok, Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk. The authorities have declared them illegal. The anticorruption campaigner is being treated at a prison hospital in Vladimir, about 180km (112 miles) east of Moscow. He is on hunger strike and his allies say his life is in danger. In central Moscow police cordoned off the area around Manezh exhibition hall, where President Putin addressed both houses of parliament.
Nicholas K Gvosdev, an expert in Russian Affairs and Professor in National Security at the US Def... more Nicholas K Gvosdev, an expert in Russian Affairs and Professor in National Security at the US Defense College wrote an article on whether Russia is a US adversary or just a “competitor. He wrote and I quote the world as it is moved into the middle decades of the twenty-first century is starting to look more “normal”. The United States remains the globe’s predominant military and economic power, to be sure, with additional vast reserves of soft and “sticky” power that helps incentivize other countries to align themselves with U.S. preferences. But other countries have resurged or obtained greater wherewithal to push back on U.S. agenda-setting or insist on their own agendas. The United States policy establishment, however, lacks experience and, daresay, comfort, with dealing with rivals.
Russian diplomats faced off in Geneva. Then NATO received a Russian delegation in Brussels. The O... more Russian diplomats faced off in Geneva. Then NATO received a Russian delegation in Brussels. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe sponsored talks in Vienna. And finally, the U.S. and Russian chief diplomat met again in Geneva, last week. First U.S. and Russian diplomats faced off in Geneva. Then NATO received a Russian delegation in Brussels. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe sponsored talks in Vienna. And finally, the U.S. and Russian chief diplomat met again in Geneva, last week. Ukraine crisis deepens after U.K. says Russia may try to install a pro-Kremlin leader. Russia courted all this attention by massing some 100,000 troops and military equipment near Ukraine, raising fears of a Russian invasion. Analysts read Russia's buildup as an attempt to pressure the U.S. and its European allies into concessions on a series of far-reaching "security guarantees" sought by Moscow. 90 tons of U.S. military aid arrives in Ukraine as border tensions with Russia rise.
IHSAAN THAROOR REPORTS IN THE WASHINGTON POST
Ihsan Tharoor in a report in The Washington Post ... more IHSAAN THAROOR REPORTS IN THE WASHINGTON POST
Ihsan Tharoor in a report in The Washington Post said that long before shock election results released eroded Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political mandate, the seeds of discontent were planted in the poor, zigzagging alleys housing Indians at the foot of society. Months ago, upper-caste members of Modi’s party boasted they would gain so much political power that they would amend India’s constitution to remove affirmative action, said villager Yogendra Kumar.
SURPRISE REVOLT BY THE DALITS
There was another problem. Modi never delivered jobs to the poor or kept inflation in check. Dalits, formerly known as untouchables, and part of the crucial voter bloc that delivered the biggest surprise this week. Low-caste Hindus in the Hindi-speaking heartland who unexpectedly rebelled against Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. While the BJP won the most parliamentary seats, it fell well short of securing the majority needed to form a government. In a bruising campaign over the past seven weeks, Modi often appealed to religion, portraying himself as a champion of Hindus anointed by God and denouncing Muslims as “infiltrators.” But ultimately, according to political analysts, the election was decided along the fault lines of caste and class. In the key state of Uttar Pradesh, where Modi had inaugurated a massive temple in January in an effort to consolidate the Hindu vote, many low-caste Hindus voted in a similar fashion as Muslims, another group that has been dissatisfied with Modi’s rule.
GEORGE FRIEDMAN OF POLITICAL FUTURES ON CHANGES IN MOSCOW
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD.
In Ma... more GEORGE FRIEDMAN OF POLITICAL FUTURES ON CHANGES IN MOSCOW
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD.
In May this year George Friedman of Geo-Political Futures wrote an article on the recent shake up in Moscow. He termed the shakeup as “massive” reflected in the departure of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his replacement by a former Minister of Economic Development. It is not clear, I wrote, what the shakeup means. Perhaps President Vladimir Putin wants a better balance between military and economic affairs. It also indicates Russia-China deep friendship and their combined opposition to the almost fifty years’ uninterrupted rule by the US over the so-called “rule based” world. Many developing countries have flocked to Chinese call for infra-structural development in their countries which hey needed but did not have the money. Their preference for the Chinese call was despite the open call by Donald Trump’s Vice President Michael Pence of a “Chinese Debt Trap”.
A GOVERNMENT SHAKEUP IN MOSCOW
The Russian government announced recently a massive shakeup of its senior staff. Several ministers in civilian sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and trade, and transportation were relieved of their positions, but the most notable departure was Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was replaced by Andrei Belousov, a former assistant to Vladimir Putin and a former minister of economic development. Putin has insisted that Shoigu, the architect of the war in Ukraine, will still be involved in military affairs, and his appointment as secretary of the Security Council is perhaps a testament to the president’s sincerity. Indeed, there is little reason to believe this is some kind of Stalinist purge. Putin has made every effort to dismiss the idea that the team that managed the war failed. PUTIN WANTS A BETTER BALANCE OF MILATARY AND ECONOMIC AFFAIRS Recent government statements suggest that Putin needs a better balance of military and economic affairs, so installing a former economic development minister to the top defense post makes sense in this regard. Even so, we would be remiss if we neglected to mention reports that one senior Defense Ministry official was arrested and charged with corruption. Whether this is a single event or the beginning of more arrests (or worse) is yet unknown. WHAT DOES THE SHAKEUP MEAN? It isn’t immediately clear what Putin means in practical terms when he speaks of balancing military and economic affairs, which must be balanced in all wars if armies are to be supplied and citizens fed. Things do not seem especially out of balance in this war, so it might simply be a means of glossing over a radical shift, a way to avoid, to the extent possible, a sense of crisis. There is in fact not so much a crisis but rather a long-term reality the Kremlin tried to ignore and other participants cannot seem to grasp.
FAULTY ASSUMPTION OF QUICK VICTORY OVER UKRAINE Moscow started the war under the assumption Ukraine would be rapidly defeated. That obviously was wishful thinking. Over two years later, Russia holds only 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. Kyiv has even recovered some parts Moscow had taken earlier. There has been a sense throughout the war that Ukraine could be breaking. It hasn’t broken yet, and neither has Russia. But as expectations continue to diverge from reality, that sense has eroded. The emphasis on the economy might be a diversion, part of a belief that the war could be sustained and the public placated if the Russian economy recovered. CHINA’S ENTRY IN RUSSIA’S COMBAT Putin also met last week with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China has long made it clear that it will not join Russia in combat. But it might support Moscow on the economy. But the Chinese economy has weakened dramatically in the last two years, and the Russians know this. Putin has mentioned negotiations, which the United States has been floating for some time. Russia has set terms, most notably the ouster of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He remains in place, and it would seem that if Russia were to choose between continuing the war and ousting Zelenskyy, it would choose the latter. It’s hard to know exactly what to make of the government reshuffle. Many familiar names are still in power, and some are overtaking portfolios they seem to have no experience in. This makes little obvious sense, even if it conveys a feeling that time is running out on the war. Of course, it could be a clearing of the deck for a major attack. It makes a good cover. But after two years and limited advances, you don’t need a diversion of weakness. It’s already there.
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD
FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTION OF STRATEGY
The fundamental presumption of... more AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD
FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTION OF STRATEGY
The fundamental presumption of strategy, be it local or far-reaching, is that far-reaching is that the strategy would not be so costly that it would be self-defeating and suicidal. Since no country would like to commit suicide the possibility of nuclear confrontation among nations is not a possibility despite whatever Russia may be threatening Ukraine with. The question that may arise in the White House and the US partners is whether Ukraine is worth boots on the ground when Benjamin Netanyahu remains in charge with the US getting nothing from him. How long the US would tolerate Netanyahu’s disregard of US pressure on Israel to ease its campaign of genocide of the Palestinians remains to be seen. PRESIDENT VLADIMIR’S WARNING TO THE WEST ON RUSSIAN SECURITY In an important speech in April 2021, Vladimir Putin In April 2021 Russian President Vladimir Putin sternly warned the West against encroaching further on Russia's security interests, saying Moscow's response would be "quick and tough" and make the culprits feel bitterly sorry for their actions. The warning came during Putin's annual state-of-the-nation address amid a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine, where cease-fire violations in the seven-year conflict between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have escalated in recent weeks. The United States and its allies have urged the Kremlin to pull the troops back. “I hope that no one dares to cross the red line concerning Russia, and we will determine where it is in each specific case," Putin said. "Those who organize any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their deeds more than they regretted anything for a long time." In his speech, Putin pointed to Russia's moves to modernize its nuclear arsenals and said the military would continue to procure a growing number of state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles and other new weapons. He added that the development of the nuclear-armed Poseidon underwater drone and the nuclear-powered cruise missile continues successfully. In an apparent reference to the U.S. and its allies, the Russian leader denounced those who impose "unlawful, politically motivated economic sanctions and crude attempts to enforce its will on others." He said Russia has shown restraint and often refrained from responding to "openly boorish" actions by others. Putin further warned the West against encroaching further on Russia's security interests, saying Moscow's response would be "quick and tough" and make the culprits feel bitterly sorry for their actions. The warning came during Putin's annual state-of-the-nation address amid a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine, where cease-fire violations in the seven-year conflict between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have escalated in recent weeks. The United States and its allies have urged the Kremlin to pull the troops back. “I hope that no one dares to cross the red line concerning Russia, and we will determine where it is in each specific case," Putin said. "Those who organize any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their deeds more than they regretted anything for a long time." In his speech, Putin pointed to Russia's moves to modernize its nuclear arsenals and said the military would continue to procure a growing number of state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles and other new weapons. In an apparent reference to the U.S. and its allies, the Russian leader denounced those who impose "unlawful, politically motivated economic sanctions and crude attempts to enforce its will on others." He said Russia has shown restraint and often refrained from responding to "openly boorish" actions by others. The question that arises is how seriously President Joe Biden takes Russia as a competitor for a place in the table setting up the so-called rule-based world that the West had been imposing on the shackled world in Africa and in Asia.
ARTICLE BY AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD.
THE RISK OF PUTTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SPACE
Incredible... more ARTICLE BY AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD. THE RISK OF PUTTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SPACE Incredible yet frightening at the same time that according to US intelligence President Vladimir Putin is planning to put nuclear weapons in space. But then it was not the first time. In 1962 the US had done it in the tiny Johnstone Atoll in the middle of the Pacific. Elsewhere around the region, people gathered to watch, expecting to see a small burst of light, maybe something like a shooting star. Instead, the entire sky lit up, bringing daylight to the middle of the night. A giant ball of plasma erupted above them, particles of radiation raining down on the atmosphere. ‘It looked as though the heavens had belched forth a new sun that flared briefly, but long enough to set the sky on fire,’ said one account in the Hilo Tribune-Herald. The bomb was launched from Johnston Atoll in the South Pacific. This was Starfish Prime, a 1.4 megaton bomb, 500 times as powerful as Hiroshima. It aimed to examine how a nuclear bomb in space would affect Earth’s atmosphere. One could compare the decision of US President Harry Truman to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki, albeit no evidence is still available that though the main enemy of World War II was Germany, Truman decided to bomb Japanese cities, which were not the main theater of the War. Decidedly the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the destruction that followed forced President Franklin Roosevelt to declare war on Japan. One could construct a scenario that Japan was destroyed because it was an Asian country and not a part of Europe when Churchill, Stalin, and Franklin Roosevelt were engaged in the Yalta Conference busy dividing the defeated Germany and constructing the edifice of the Nuremberg Trial.
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD
Pakistani saga continues unabated. Imran Khan and his political Par... more AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD Pakistani saga continues unabated. Imran Khan and his political Party Pakistan Tehrik of Insaf, once favored by the army establishment, are banned from participating in the elections. Imran Khan is now serving fourteen years on corruption charges. In a letter to the famous British Journal, The Economist Imran Khan called the election a farce. His “ fault” was reading out to the National Assembly a coded telegram the Pakistani ambassador in the US had sent home. He is also accused of selling jewelry he and his wife received from places they visited which according to rules should have been deposited in government-maintained treasury. The Army Establishment has been in control of Pakistani politics either through martial law or through controlling the country from behind. ARMY’S STRANGLEHOLD ON PAKISTAN CONTINUES Except for a brief period of civilian rule after independence from British rule in 1947 the Army establishment has been in control of the country. The latest tally announced by the Election Commission on 13th February this year shows that the election of the leader of the house, or prime minister must win a simple majority - 169 of the 336 seats. There can be multiple candidates for prime minister. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a second vote is held between the top two candidates. Voting will continue till one person can secure a majority. Negotiations for a coalition government are taking place between former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's party, with 75 seats. The party of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of a former President and assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto whose father was also a former Prime Minister but was assassinated by the army establishment, with 54 seats, as well as other smaller parties. Independent candidates backed by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats - 93 - and they are also jostling for allies to form government. Candidates were vying for 264 seats out of the assembly's 336 total number of seats.
A CRUCIAL ELEMENT IN JEWISH OCCUPATION WAS US RECOGNITION OF ISRAEL
It is most surprising that th... more A CRUCIAL ELEMENT IN JEWISH OCCUPATION WAS US RECOGNITION OF ISRAEL It is most surprising that the people who are known to have suffered the most horrific genocide in the world is today insist on inflicting incredible suffering on a people who have been legitimate residents of this land for centuries. According to the British newspaper The Guardian (Chris McGreal-16th November 2023) Jewish settlement in Palestine started with the late 19th-century Jewish migration to what was then the Ottoman Empire – to escape the pogroms and other persecutions in Eastern Europe – and the rise of Zionism. Others think that the settlement started with the Balfour declaration by the British government in 1917 in support of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine and the ensuing conflicts with Arab communities there. But the starting point for many people is the United Nations’ vote in 1947 to partition land in the British mandate of Palestine into two states – one Jewish, one Arab – following the destruction of much of European Jewry in the Holocaust. Neither the Palestinians nor the neighboring Arab countries accepted the founding of modern Israel. The crucial element in my opinion was the recognition by President Harry Truman of Israel as the homeland for the Jews. With American support in the background, an armistice agreement in 1949 saw new de facto borders that gave the fledgling Jewish state considerably more territory than it was awarded under the UN partition plan.
The world appears to be on the verge of disquiet and even famous analysts are confused as to whic... more The world appears to be on the verge of disquiet and even famous analysts are confused as to which direction the global unease will take shape. At the Extraordinary Summit of the Muslim World held in Riyadh on 12 November 2023, Bangladesh's Prime Minister put forward a five-point proposal to ease the Israeli aggression in Gaza. Describing Gaza as the most densely populated open-air prison in the world for decades, she said that the once-persecuted Jewish people are now pitilessly destroying the homes, hopes, and families of hapless Palestinians who gave them shelter during their difficult days. Expressing Bangladesh’s support for the Palestinians she expressed Palestinians right to self-determination, sovereignty, and independence based on the 1967 border and the Two-State Solution with Al-Quds Al-Sharif as its capital.
ADB HOPEFUL ON BANGLADESH’S GROWTH
According to Asian Development Bank Bangladesh is doing well. ... more ADB HOPEFUL ON BANGLADESH’S GROWTH According to Asian Development Bank Bangladesh is doing well. The ADB report states that exports, remittances, and domestic consumption buoyed Bangladesh’s economy in fiscal year (FY) 2022, which ended on 30 June 2022. Gross domestic product growth was at 7.1%, up from 6.9% in FY 2021. Growth, however, was dampened by the global economic slowdown caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which affected Bangladesh’s economy through a widening external balance and rising inflation. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is a key source of external assistance for Bangladesh, providing $2 billion on average every year since 2016. ADB’s assistance is aligned with the country’s Eighth Five-Year Plan, 2021–2025, and the Perspective Plan, 2021–2041. To date, ADB has committed 701 public sector loans, grants, and technical assistance totaling $28.3 billion to Bangladesh. Cumulative loan and grant disbursements to Bangladesh amount to $21.19 billion. These were financed by regular and concessional ordinary capital resources, the Asian Development Fund, and other special funds. ADB’s ongoing sovereign portfolio in Bangladesh includes 70 loans and 4 grants worth $11.31 billion.1 ADB committed $1.6 billion in public sector loans and grants to Bangladesh in 2022. This included $250 million for social protection and $200 million in microenterprise financing for job creation to support recovery from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The report is encouraging.
IS WORLD WAR THREE POSSIBLE?
ARTICLE BY AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWRUL MASUD.
THE RISE AND DECLINE OF ... more IS WORLD WAR THREE POSSIBLE?
ARTICLE BY AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWRUL MASUD.
THE RISE AND DECLINE OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER?
Preventing the Spread of nuclear weapons: The Nonproliferation Treaty and Regime Somewhat miraculously, it proved possible to negotiate a legally binding multilateral treaty that acknowledged and accepted the five nuclear weapon states that existed at the time but prohibited all other signatories from building or otherwise acquiring nuclear weapons. Across time, also perhaps somewhat miraculously, nearly every state in the international system (191 member states) signed the treaty; every state that does not possess nuclear weapons (with the single exception of South Sudan) has signed a legal instrument in which they accept a binding obligation to remain non-nuclear. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty entered into force in 1970 and became the legal foundation for an evolving regime of technology controls and mandated inspections of nuclear facilities aimed both at preventing the spread of weapons-related nuclear technology and at discouraging the use of civilian nuclear facilities for illicit weapons-related purposes. Adaptions in the regime often came after some undesirable development or challenge to the system. After the 1974 Indian nuclear test, for example, a Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) was established to harmonize export controls on sensitive nuclear technologies and to deny weapons-related technologies to potentially worrisome recipients. Similarly, after the discovery of Iraq’s illicit nuclear weapons program in 1990, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) developed a new set of information requirements and inspection measures, enumerated in a document called the Additional Protocol, that enhanced the IAEA’s access to information and its powers of inspection.
IN RECENT DECADES CHINA HAS DEVELOPED RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA AS A COUNTER TO THE WEST
In recent d... more IN RECENT DECADES CHINA HAS DEVELOPED RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA AS A COUNTER TO THE WEST In recent decades, China has shunned formal alliances for both pragmatic and ideological reasons and has criticized the United States’ vast alliance network as a “vestige of the Cold War.” But Beijing has increasingly resorted to semantic gymnastics to talk about its alignment with Russia. Chinese statements regularly insist that the bilateral partnership is “not an alliance” and “not targeted” against any third party while also making the case that China and Russia’s relationship “surpasses” traditional alliances. Even before the joint statement in February 2022, Beijing had stressed that no areas of cooperation were off limits and that the partnership would stand firm in the face of international headwinds. .
The two frigates are central to India's ability to launch nuclear weapons from land, sea and air.... more The two frigates are central to India's ability to launch nuclear weapons from land, sea and air. India’s recent launch of its second nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine may have boosted its deterrence capabilities, but analysts say the country has a long way to go in closing the gap on China's naval power. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh expressed confidence that the new submarine would fortify India's nuclear deterrence and play a decisive role in national security. The submarine's introduction was timely, according to former chief of India's naval staff Admiral Arun Prakash, amid challenges posed by the country's two nuclear-armed neighbors: Pakistan and China. He highlighted the stark contrasts in nuclear policies among these nations. "India's 2003 doctrine states that it will not be the first to use a nuclear weapon ever whereas Pakistan has made no such commitment and it keeps threatening it would use nuclear weapons when required," he told This Week in Asia. "China also adopts the 'no first use' policy but its intentions are not clear." In an article another analyst opined that the growing China-Pakistan nexus raises the threat to India. Their strategic and territorial interests have been cemented by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). With the flow of Chinese military power into Pakistan, China veritably straddles India, with its armed forces present on India’s northern, eastern and western borders. This not only raises the real specter of a ‘two-front’ war, but positions China to play a role in Kashmir and the region. The only other country with which China has a special category of strategic partnership is Russia.
ASSESSING CHINA’S EXPANDING NUCLEAR ARSENAL
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL
I am deeply indebted to Robe... more ASSESSING CHINA’S EXPANDING NUCLEAR ARSENAL AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL I am deeply indebted to Robert Peters, Sarah Alison and Andrew J Harding of the Heritage Foundation for indicating the way forward in writing my article on assessing China’s expanding nuclear arsenal. Their article has been not only to me but I presume many scholars in articulating the difficulties one faces in trying to understand the complexities of China’s ambition in not only edging out the USA from the leadership in South Asia but also to establish herself for a seat, along with Russia, in their challenge to the multipolar world now peopled by the USA, the European Union and the rest of the Western world. CHANGE IN CHINA’S NUCLEAR POLICY SINCE XI- JINPING’S RULE Since General Secretary Xi Jinping’s tenure, China has slowly but nevertheless effectively walked back its “no first use” policy to say that it would only use nuclear weapons if China was the victim of a “strategic attack”—without defining what constitutes a strategic attack. Such a change in nuclear declaratory policy is of course China’s right. Until a few years ago, the United States did not see any change to Chinese fielded nuclear forces—until a 2021 report that made it clear that China was fielding theater-range ballistic and cruise missiles that could carry nuclear or conventional explosives. These theater missiles, it turns out, are optimized to strike large capital ships—such as American aircraft carriers—and large fixed land targets, such as American bases on Guam or Japan. Couple the sensor packages that can target ships steaming at 30 knots over the horizon with a theater-range missile carrying a nuclear weapon, and it became clear that China was building and fielding nuclear theater warfighting weapons—not the type of weapons that are part of a minimal deterrence posture meant to prevent nuclear attack in the first place.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the West not to cross a "red line" with Russia, sayin... more Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the West not to cross a "red line" with Russia, saying such a move would trigger an "asymmetrical, rapid and harsh" response he warning came in his annual state of the nation address, amid heightened tension with the West over Ukraine and jailed Putin critic Alexei Navalny. Putin said Western powers were constantly trying to "pick on" Russia. Police have detained nearly 100 Navalny supporters rallying in several cities. Hundreds staged pro-Navalny protests on Wednesday in eastern cities including Vladivostok, Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk. The authorities have declared them illegal. The anticorruption campaigner is being treated at a prison hospital in Vladimir, about 180km (112 miles) east of Moscow. He is on hunger strike and his allies say his life is in danger. In central Moscow police cordoned off the area around Manezh exhibition hall, where President Putin addressed both houses of parliament.
Nicholas K Gvosdev, an expert in Russian Affairs and Professor in National Security at the US Def... more Nicholas K Gvosdev, an expert in Russian Affairs and Professor in National Security at the US Defense College wrote an article on whether Russia is a US adversary or just a “competitor. He wrote and I quote the world as it is moved into the middle decades of the twenty-first century is starting to look more “normal”. The United States remains the globe’s predominant military and economic power, to be sure, with additional vast reserves of soft and “sticky” power that helps incentivize other countries to align themselves with U.S. preferences. But other countries have resurged or obtained greater wherewithal to push back on U.S. agenda-setting or insist on their own agendas. The United States policy establishment, however, lacks experience and, daresay, comfort, with dealing with rivals.
Russian diplomats faced off in Geneva. Then NATO received a Russian delegation in Brussels. The O... more Russian diplomats faced off in Geneva. Then NATO received a Russian delegation in Brussels. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe sponsored talks in Vienna. And finally, the U.S. and Russian chief diplomat met again in Geneva, last week. First U.S. and Russian diplomats faced off in Geneva. Then NATO received a Russian delegation in Brussels. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe sponsored talks in Vienna. And finally, the U.S. and Russian chief diplomat met again in Geneva, last week. Ukraine crisis deepens after U.K. says Russia may try to install a pro-Kremlin leader. Russia courted all this attention by massing some 100,000 troops and military equipment near Ukraine, raising fears of a Russian invasion. Analysts read Russia's buildup as an attempt to pressure the U.S. and its European allies into concessions on a series of far-reaching "security guarantees" sought by Moscow. 90 tons of U.S. military aid arrives in Ukraine as border tensions with Russia rise.
IHSAAN THAROOR REPORTS IN THE WASHINGTON POST
Ihsan Tharoor in a report in The Washington Post ... more IHSAAN THAROOR REPORTS IN THE WASHINGTON POST
Ihsan Tharoor in a report in The Washington Post said that long before shock election results released eroded Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political mandate, the seeds of discontent were planted in the poor, zigzagging alleys housing Indians at the foot of society. Months ago, upper-caste members of Modi’s party boasted they would gain so much political power that they would amend India’s constitution to remove affirmative action, said villager Yogendra Kumar.
SURPRISE REVOLT BY THE DALITS
There was another problem. Modi never delivered jobs to the poor or kept inflation in check. Dalits, formerly known as untouchables, and part of the crucial voter bloc that delivered the biggest surprise this week. Low-caste Hindus in the Hindi-speaking heartland who unexpectedly rebelled against Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. While the BJP won the most parliamentary seats, it fell well short of securing the majority needed to form a government. In a bruising campaign over the past seven weeks, Modi often appealed to religion, portraying himself as a champion of Hindus anointed by God and denouncing Muslims as “infiltrators.” But ultimately, according to political analysts, the election was decided along the fault lines of caste and class. In the key state of Uttar Pradesh, where Modi had inaugurated a massive temple in January in an effort to consolidate the Hindu vote, many low-caste Hindus voted in a similar fashion as Muslims, another group that has been dissatisfied with Modi’s rule.
GEORGE FRIEDMAN OF POLITICAL FUTURES ON CHANGES IN MOSCOW
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD.
In Ma... more GEORGE FRIEDMAN OF POLITICAL FUTURES ON CHANGES IN MOSCOW
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD.
In May this year George Friedman of Geo-Political Futures wrote an article on the recent shake up in Moscow. He termed the shakeup as “massive” reflected in the departure of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his replacement by a former Minister of Economic Development. It is not clear, I wrote, what the shakeup means. Perhaps President Vladimir Putin wants a better balance between military and economic affairs. It also indicates Russia-China deep friendship and their combined opposition to the almost fifty years’ uninterrupted rule by the US over the so-called “rule based” world. Many developing countries have flocked to Chinese call for infra-structural development in their countries which hey needed but did not have the money. Their preference for the Chinese call was despite the open call by Donald Trump’s Vice President Michael Pence of a “Chinese Debt Trap”.
A GOVERNMENT SHAKEUP IN MOSCOW
The Russian government announced recently a massive shakeup of its senior staff. Several ministers in civilian sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and trade, and transportation were relieved of their positions, but the most notable departure was Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was replaced by Andrei Belousov, a former assistant to Vladimir Putin and a former minister of economic development. Putin has insisted that Shoigu, the architect of the war in Ukraine, will still be involved in military affairs, and his appointment as secretary of the Security Council is perhaps a testament to the president’s sincerity. Indeed, there is little reason to believe this is some kind of Stalinist purge. Putin has made every effort to dismiss the idea that the team that managed the war failed. PUTIN WANTS A BETTER BALANCE OF MILATARY AND ECONOMIC AFFAIRS Recent government statements suggest that Putin needs a better balance of military and economic affairs, so installing a former economic development minister to the top defense post makes sense in this regard. Even so, we would be remiss if we neglected to mention reports that one senior Defense Ministry official was arrested and charged with corruption. Whether this is a single event or the beginning of more arrests (or worse) is yet unknown. WHAT DOES THE SHAKEUP MEAN? It isn’t immediately clear what Putin means in practical terms when he speaks of balancing military and economic affairs, which must be balanced in all wars if armies are to be supplied and citizens fed. Things do not seem especially out of balance in this war, so it might simply be a means of glossing over a radical shift, a way to avoid, to the extent possible, a sense of crisis. There is in fact not so much a crisis but rather a long-term reality the Kremlin tried to ignore and other participants cannot seem to grasp.
FAULTY ASSUMPTION OF QUICK VICTORY OVER UKRAINE Moscow started the war under the assumption Ukraine would be rapidly defeated. That obviously was wishful thinking. Over two years later, Russia holds only 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. Kyiv has even recovered some parts Moscow had taken earlier. There has been a sense throughout the war that Ukraine could be breaking. It hasn’t broken yet, and neither has Russia. But as expectations continue to diverge from reality, that sense has eroded. The emphasis on the economy might be a diversion, part of a belief that the war could be sustained and the public placated if the Russian economy recovered. CHINA’S ENTRY IN RUSSIA’S COMBAT Putin also met last week with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China has long made it clear that it will not join Russia in combat. But it might support Moscow on the economy. But the Chinese economy has weakened dramatically in the last two years, and the Russians know this. Putin has mentioned negotiations, which the United States has been floating for some time. Russia has set terms, most notably the ouster of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He remains in place, and it would seem that if Russia were to choose between continuing the war and ousting Zelenskyy, it would choose the latter. It’s hard to know exactly what to make of the government reshuffle. Many familiar names are still in power, and some are overtaking portfolios they seem to have no experience in. This makes little obvious sense, even if it conveys a feeling that time is running out on the war. Of course, it could be a clearing of the deck for a major attack. It makes a good cover. But after two years and limited advances, you don’t need a diversion of weakness. It’s already there.
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD
FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTION OF STRATEGY
The fundamental presumption of... more AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD
FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTION OF STRATEGY
The fundamental presumption of strategy, be it local or far-reaching, is that far-reaching is that the strategy would not be so costly that it would be self-defeating and suicidal. Since no country would like to commit suicide the possibility of nuclear confrontation among nations is not a possibility despite whatever Russia may be threatening Ukraine with. The question that may arise in the White House and the US partners is whether Ukraine is worth boots on the ground when Benjamin Netanyahu remains in charge with the US getting nothing from him. How long the US would tolerate Netanyahu’s disregard of US pressure on Israel to ease its campaign of genocide of the Palestinians remains to be seen. PRESIDENT VLADIMIR’S WARNING TO THE WEST ON RUSSIAN SECURITY In an important speech in April 2021, Vladimir Putin In April 2021 Russian President Vladimir Putin sternly warned the West against encroaching further on Russia's security interests, saying Moscow's response would be "quick and tough" and make the culprits feel bitterly sorry for their actions. The warning came during Putin's annual state-of-the-nation address amid a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine, where cease-fire violations in the seven-year conflict between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have escalated in recent weeks. The United States and its allies have urged the Kremlin to pull the troops back. “I hope that no one dares to cross the red line concerning Russia, and we will determine where it is in each specific case," Putin said. "Those who organize any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their deeds more than they regretted anything for a long time." In his speech, Putin pointed to Russia's moves to modernize its nuclear arsenals and said the military would continue to procure a growing number of state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles and other new weapons. He added that the development of the nuclear-armed Poseidon underwater drone and the nuclear-powered cruise missile continues successfully. In an apparent reference to the U.S. and its allies, the Russian leader denounced those who impose "unlawful, politically motivated economic sanctions and crude attempts to enforce its will on others." He said Russia has shown restraint and often refrained from responding to "openly boorish" actions by others. Putin further warned the West against encroaching further on Russia's security interests, saying Moscow's response would be "quick and tough" and make the culprits feel bitterly sorry for their actions. The warning came during Putin's annual state-of-the-nation address amid a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine, where cease-fire violations in the seven-year conflict between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have escalated in recent weeks. The United States and its allies have urged the Kremlin to pull the troops back. “I hope that no one dares to cross the red line concerning Russia, and we will determine where it is in each specific case," Putin said. "Those who organize any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their deeds more than they regretted anything for a long time." In his speech, Putin pointed to Russia's moves to modernize its nuclear arsenals and said the military would continue to procure a growing number of state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles and other new weapons. In an apparent reference to the U.S. and its allies, the Russian leader denounced those who impose "unlawful, politically motivated economic sanctions and crude attempts to enforce its will on others." He said Russia has shown restraint and often refrained from responding to "openly boorish" actions by others. The question that arises is how seriously President Joe Biden takes Russia as a competitor for a place in the table setting up the so-called rule-based world that the West had been imposing on the shackled world in Africa and in Asia.
ARTICLE BY AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD.
THE RISK OF PUTTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SPACE
Incredible... more ARTICLE BY AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD. THE RISK OF PUTTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SPACE Incredible yet frightening at the same time that according to US intelligence President Vladimir Putin is planning to put nuclear weapons in space. But then it was not the first time. In 1962 the US had done it in the tiny Johnstone Atoll in the middle of the Pacific. Elsewhere around the region, people gathered to watch, expecting to see a small burst of light, maybe something like a shooting star. Instead, the entire sky lit up, bringing daylight to the middle of the night. A giant ball of plasma erupted above them, particles of radiation raining down on the atmosphere. ‘It looked as though the heavens had belched forth a new sun that flared briefly, but long enough to set the sky on fire,’ said one account in the Hilo Tribune-Herald. The bomb was launched from Johnston Atoll in the South Pacific. This was Starfish Prime, a 1.4 megaton bomb, 500 times as powerful as Hiroshima. It aimed to examine how a nuclear bomb in space would affect Earth’s atmosphere. One could compare the decision of US President Harry Truman to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki, albeit no evidence is still available that though the main enemy of World War II was Germany, Truman decided to bomb Japanese cities, which were not the main theater of the War. Decidedly the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the destruction that followed forced President Franklin Roosevelt to declare war on Japan. One could construct a scenario that Japan was destroyed because it was an Asian country and not a part of Europe when Churchill, Stalin, and Franklin Roosevelt were engaged in the Yalta Conference busy dividing the defeated Germany and constructing the edifice of the Nuremberg Trial.
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD
Pakistani saga continues unabated. Imran Khan and his political Par... more AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD Pakistani saga continues unabated. Imran Khan and his political Party Pakistan Tehrik of Insaf, once favored by the army establishment, are banned from participating in the elections. Imran Khan is now serving fourteen years on corruption charges. In a letter to the famous British Journal, The Economist Imran Khan called the election a farce. His “ fault” was reading out to the National Assembly a coded telegram the Pakistani ambassador in the US had sent home. He is also accused of selling jewelry he and his wife received from places they visited which according to rules should have been deposited in government-maintained treasury. The Army Establishment has been in control of Pakistani politics either through martial law or through controlling the country from behind. ARMY’S STRANGLEHOLD ON PAKISTAN CONTINUES Except for a brief period of civilian rule after independence from British rule in 1947 the Army establishment has been in control of the country. The latest tally announced by the Election Commission on 13th February this year shows that the election of the leader of the house, or prime minister must win a simple majority - 169 of the 336 seats. There can be multiple candidates for prime minister. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a second vote is held between the top two candidates. Voting will continue till one person can secure a majority. Negotiations for a coalition government are taking place between former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's party, with 75 seats. The party of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of a former President and assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto whose father was also a former Prime Minister but was assassinated by the army establishment, with 54 seats, as well as other smaller parties. Independent candidates backed by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats - 93 - and they are also jostling for allies to form government. Candidates were vying for 264 seats out of the assembly's 336 total number of seats.
A CRUCIAL ELEMENT IN JEWISH OCCUPATION WAS US RECOGNITION OF ISRAEL
It is most surprising that th... more A CRUCIAL ELEMENT IN JEWISH OCCUPATION WAS US RECOGNITION OF ISRAEL It is most surprising that the people who are known to have suffered the most horrific genocide in the world is today insist on inflicting incredible suffering on a people who have been legitimate residents of this land for centuries. According to the British newspaper The Guardian (Chris McGreal-16th November 2023) Jewish settlement in Palestine started with the late 19th-century Jewish migration to what was then the Ottoman Empire – to escape the pogroms and other persecutions in Eastern Europe – and the rise of Zionism. Others think that the settlement started with the Balfour declaration by the British government in 1917 in support of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine and the ensuing conflicts with Arab communities there. But the starting point for many people is the United Nations’ vote in 1947 to partition land in the British mandate of Palestine into two states – one Jewish, one Arab – following the destruction of much of European Jewry in the Holocaust. Neither the Palestinians nor the neighboring Arab countries accepted the founding of modern Israel. The crucial element in my opinion was the recognition by President Harry Truman of Israel as the homeland for the Jews. With American support in the background, an armistice agreement in 1949 saw new de facto borders that gave the fledgling Jewish state considerably more territory than it was awarded under the UN partition plan.
The world appears to be on the verge of disquiet and even famous analysts are confused as to whic... more The world appears to be on the verge of disquiet and even famous analysts are confused as to which direction the global unease will take shape. At the Extraordinary Summit of the Muslim World held in Riyadh on 12 November 2023, Bangladesh's Prime Minister put forward a five-point proposal to ease the Israeli aggression in Gaza. Describing Gaza as the most densely populated open-air prison in the world for decades, she said that the once-persecuted Jewish people are now pitilessly destroying the homes, hopes, and families of hapless Palestinians who gave them shelter during their difficult days. Expressing Bangladesh’s support for the Palestinians she expressed Palestinians right to self-determination, sovereignty, and independence based on the 1967 border and the Two-State Solution with Al-Quds Al-Sharif as its capital.
ADB HOPEFUL ON BANGLADESH’S GROWTH
According to Asian Development Bank Bangladesh is doing well. ... more ADB HOPEFUL ON BANGLADESH’S GROWTH According to Asian Development Bank Bangladesh is doing well. The ADB report states that exports, remittances, and domestic consumption buoyed Bangladesh’s economy in fiscal year (FY) 2022, which ended on 30 June 2022. Gross domestic product growth was at 7.1%, up from 6.9% in FY 2021. Growth, however, was dampened by the global economic slowdown caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which affected Bangladesh’s economy through a widening external balance and rising inflation. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is a key source of external assistance for Bangladesh, providing $2 billion on average every year since 2016. ADB’s assistance is aligned with the country’s Eighth Five-Year Plan, 2021–2025, and the Perspective Plan, 2021–2041. To date, ADB has committed 701 public sector loans, grants, and technical assistance totaling $28.3 billion to Bangladesh. Cumulative loan and grant disbursements to Bangladesh amount to $21.19 billion. These were financed by regular and concessional ordinary capital resources, the Asian Development Fund, and other special funds. ADB’s ongoing sovereign portfolio in Bangladesh includes 70 loans and 4 grants worth $11.31 billion.1 ADB committed $1.6 billion in public sector loans and grants to Bangladesh in 2022. This included $250 million for social protection and $200 million in microenterprise financing for job creation to support recovery from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The report is encouraging.
IS CHINA SETTING UP DEBT TRAPS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?
In December 2019 Deborah Brautigham of J... more IS CHINA SETTING UP DEBT TRAPS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?
In December 2019 Deborah Brautigham of John University in New York in the US wrote an interesting paper ( A Critical Look at “ Chinese Debt Trap Diplomacy” The Rise of a Meme). The paper delves into depth into the idea publicly warned by Donald Trump’s Vice President Mike Pence to the developing countries to be aware of the Chinese strategic plan of her aspiration to become a rising superpower that will write the rules to be abided by the rest of the world. Additionally, Deborah Brautigham wrote of the warning to African leaders by Hillary Clinton, then Secretary of State on a visit in 2011, to Africa to warn Africans against ‘the new colonialism’; and at the 2014 US–Africa summit, President Barack Obama’s paternalistic advice to African leaders that they ‘make sure that if China is putting in roads and bridges, that they’re hiring African workers. This US claim that China does not employ African workers, has been proved to be unfounded by scholars such as Barry
It is generally believed that the assassination of Arch-Duke Ferdinand of the Austro-Hungarian Em... more It is generally believed that the assassination of Arch-Duke Ferdinand of the Austro-Hungarian Empire ignited the First World War. Narratives on the Causes of the War differ. WIKIPEDIA'S narrative on the identification of the causes of World War I remains a debated issue. It claims that World War I began in the Balkans on July 28, 1914, and hostilities ended on November 11, 1918. Moreover, the Russian Civil War can in many ways be considered a continuation of World War I, as can various other conflicts in the direct aftermath of 1918. Scholars looking at the long term seek to explain why two rival sets of powers (the German Empire and Austria-Hungary against the Russian Empire, France, the British Empire, and later the United States) came into conflict by 1915. They look at such factors as political, territorial, and economic competition; militarism, a complex web of alliances and alignments; imperialism, the growth of nationalism; and the power vacuum created by the decline of the Ottoman Empire. Other important longterm or structural factors that are often studied include unresolved territorial disputes, the perceived breakdown of the European balance of power, convoluted and fragmented governance, arms race, and security dilemmas, among other factors. Scholars seeking short-term analysis focus on the summer of 1914 and ask whether the conflict could have been stopped, or instead, whether deeper causes made it inevitable. The assassination referred to earlier escalated as the conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia was joined by their allies Russia, Germany, France, and ultimately Belgium and the United Kingdom. Other factors that came into play during the diplomatic crisis leading up to the war included misperceptions of intent (such as the German belief that Britain would remain neutral), the fatalistic belief that war was inevitable, and the speed with which the crisis escalated, partly due to delays and misunderstandings in diplomatic communications. The crisis followed a series of diplomatic clashes among the Great Powers (Italy, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Austria-Hungary, and Russia) over European and colonial issues in the decades before 1914 that had left tensions high. And the cause of the public clashes can be traced to changes in the balance of power in Europe that had been taking place since 1867. Consensus on the origins of the war remains elusive since historians disagree on key factors and place differing emphasis on a variety of factors. That is compounded by as classified historical archives become available, and as the perspectives and ideologies of historians have changed. The deepest division among historians is between those who see Germany and Austria-Hungary as having driven events and those who focus on power dynamics among a wider set of actors and
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Papers by Kazi A Masud
ARTICLE BY AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWRUL MASUD.
THE RISE AND DECLINE OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER?
Preventing the Spread of nuclear weapons: The Nonproliferation Treaty and Regime
Somewhat miraculously, it proved possible to negotiate a legally binding multilateral treaty that acknowledged and accepted the five nuclear weapon states that existed at the time but prohibited all other signatories from building or otherwise acquiring nuclear weapons. Across time, also perhaps somewhat miraculously, nearly every state in the international system (191 member states) signed the treaty; every state that does not possess nuclear weapons (with the single exception of South Sudan) has signed a legal instrument in which they accept a binding obligation to remain non-nuclear. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty entered into force in 1970 and became the legal foundation for an evolving regime of technology controls and mandated inspections of nuclear facilities aimed both at preventing the spread of weapons-related nuclear technology and at discouraging the use of civilian nuclear facilities for illicit weapons-related purposes. Adaptions in the regime often came after some undesirable development or challenge to the system. After the 1974 Indian nuclear test, for example, a Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) was established to harmonize export controls on sensitive nuclear technologies and to deny weapons-related technologies to potentially worrisome recipients. Similarly, after the discovery of Iraq’s illicit nuclear weapons program in 1990, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) developed a new set of information requirements and inspection measures, enumerated in a document called the Additional Protocol, that enhanced the IAEA’s access to information and its powers of inspection.
In recent decades, China has shunned formal alliances for both pragmatic and ideological reasons and has criticized the United States’ vast alliance network as a “vestige of the Cold War.” But Beijing has increasingly resorted to semantic gymnastics to talk about its alignment with Russia. Chinese statements regularly insist that the bilateral partnership is “not an alliance” and “not targeted” against any third party while also making the case that China and Russia’s relationship “surpasses” traditional alliances. Even before the joint statement in February 2022, Beijing had stressed that no areas of cooperation were off limits and that the partnership would stand firm in the face of international headwinds.
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AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL
I am deeply indebted to Robert Peters, Sarah Alison and Andrew J Harding of the Heritage Foundation for indicating the way forward in writing my article on assessing China’s expanding nuclear arsenal. Their article has been not only to me but I presume many scholars in articulating the difficulties one faces in trying to understand the complexities of China’s ambition in not only edging out the USA from the leadership in South Asia but also to establish herself for a seat, along with Russia, in their challenge to the multipolar world now peopled by the USA, the European Union and the rest of the Western world.
CHANGE IN CHINA’S NUCLEAR POLICY SINCE XI- JINPING’S RULE
Since General Secretary Xi Jinping’s tenure, China has slowly but nevertheless effectively walked back its “no first use” policy to say that it would only use nuclear weapons if China was the victim of a “strategic attack”—without defining what constitutes a strategic attack. Such a change in nuclear declaratory policy is of course China’s right. Until a few years ago, the United States did not see any change to Chinese fielded nuclear forces—until a 2021 report that made it clear that China was fielding theater-range ballistic and cruise missiles that could carry nuclear or conventional explosives. These theater missiles, it turns out, are optimized to strike large capital ships—such as American aircraft carriers—and large fixed land targets, such as American bases on Guam or Japan. Couple the sensor packages that can target ships steaming at 30 knots over the horizon with a theater-range missile carrying a nuclear weapon, and it became clear that China was building and fielding nuclear theater warfighting weapons—not the type of weapons that are part of a minimal deterrence posture meant to prevent nuclear attack in the first place.
Ihsan Tharoor in a report in The Washington Post said that long before shock election results released eroded Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political mandate, the seeds of discontent were planted in the poor, zigzagging alleys housing Indians at the foot of society. Months ago, upper-caste members of Modi’s party boasted they would gain so much political power that they would amend India’s constitution to remove affirmative action, said villager Yogendra Kumar.
SURPRISE REVOLT BY THE DALITS
There was another problem. Modi never delivered jobs to the poor or kept inflation in check. Dalits, formerly known as untouchables, and part of the crucial voter bloc that delivered the biggest surprise this week. Low-caste Hindus in the Hindi-speaking heartland who unexpectedly rebelled against Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. While the BJP won the most parliamentary seats, it fell well short of securing the majority needed to form a government. In a bruising campaign over the past seven weeks, Modi often appealed to religion, portraying himself as a champion of Hindus anointed by God and denouncing Muslims as “infiltrators.” But ultimately, according to political analysts, the election was decided along the fault lines of caste and class. In the key state of Uttar Pradesh, where Modi had inaugurated a massive temple in January in an effort to consolidate the Hindu vote, many low-caste Hindus voted in a similar fashion as Muslims, another group that has been dissatisfied with Modi’s rule.
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD.
In May this year George Friedman of Geo-Political Futures wrote an article on the recent shake up in Moscow. He termed the shakeup as “massive” reflected in the departure of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his replacement by a former Minister of Economic Development. It is not clear, I wrote, what the shakeup means. Perhaps President Vladimir Putin wants a better balance between military and economic affairs. It also indicates Russia-China deep friendship and their combined opposition to the almost fifty years’ uninterrupted rule by the US over the so-called “rule based” world. Many developing countries have flocked to Chinese call for infra-structural development in their countries which hey needed but did not have the money. Their preference for the Chinese call was despite the open call by Donald Trump’s Vice President Michael Pence of a “Chinese Debt Trap”.
A GOVERNMENT SHAKEUP IN MOSCOW
The Russian government announced recently a massive shakeup of its senior staff. Several ministers in civilian sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and trade, and transportation were relieved of their positions, but the most notable departure was Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was replaced by Andrei Belousov, a former assistant to Vladimir Putin and a former minister of economic development. Putin has insisted that Shoigu, the architect of the war in Ukraine, will still be involved in military affairs, and his appointment as secretary of the Security Council is perhaps a testament to the president’s sincerity. Indeed, there is little reason to believe this is some kind of Stalinist purge. Putin has made every effort to dismiss the idea that the team that managed the war failed.
PUTIN WANTS A BETTER BALANCE OF MILATARY AND ECONOMIC AFFAIRS
Recent government statements suggest that Putin needs a better balance of military and economic affairs, so installing a former economic development minister to the top defense post makes sense in this regard. Even so, we would be remiss if we neglected to mention reports that one senior Defense Ministry official was arrested and charged with corruption. Whether this is a single event or the beginning of more arrests (or worse) is yet unknown.
WHAT DOES THE SHAKEUP MEAN?
It isn’t immediately clear what Putin means in practical terms when he speaks of balancing military and economic affairs, which must be balanced in all wars if armies are to be supplied and citizens fed. Things do not seem especially out of balance in this war, so it might simply be a means of glossing over a radical shift, a way to avoid, to the extent possible, a sense of crisis. There is in fact not so much a crisis but rather a long-term reality the Kremlin tried to ignore and other participants cannot seem to grasp.
FAULTY ASSUMPTION OF QUICK VICTORY OVER UKRAINE
Moscow started the war under the assumption Ukraine would be rapidly defeated. That obviously was wishful thinking. Over two years later, Russia holds only 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. Kyiv has even recovered some parts Moscow had taken earlier. There has been a sense throughout the war that Ukraine could be breaking. It hasn’t broken yet, and neither has Russia. But as expectations continue to diverge from reality, that sense has eroded. The emphasis on the economy might be a diversion, part of a belief that the war could be sustained and the public placated if the Russian economy recovered.
CHINA’S ENTRY IN RUSSIA’S COMBAT
Putin also met last week with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China has long made it clear that it will not join Russia in combat. But it might support Moscow on the economy. But the Chinese economy has weakened dramatically in the last two years, and the Russians know this. Putin has mentioned negotiations, which the United States has been floating for some time. Russia has set terms, most notably the ouster of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He remains in place, and it would seem that if Russia were to choose between continuing the war and ousting Zelenskyy, it would choose the latter. It’s hard to know exactly what to make of the government reshuffle. Many familiar names are still in power, and some are overtaking portfolios they seem to have no experience in. This makes little obvious sense, even if it conveys a feeling that time is running out on the war. Of course, it could be a clearing of the deck for a major attack. It makes a good cover. But after two years and limited advances, you don’t need a diversion of weakness. It’s already there.
FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTION OF STRATEGY
The fundamental presumption of strategy, be it local or far-reaching, is that far-reaching is that the strategy would not be so costly that it would be self-defeating and suicidal. Since no country would like to commit suicide the possibility of nuclear confrontation among nations is not a possibility despite whatever Russia may be threatening Ukraine with. The question that may arise in the White House and the US partners is whether Ukraine is worth boots on the ground when Benjamin Netanyahu remains in charge with the US getting nothing from him. How long the US would tolerate Netanyahu’s disregard of US pressure on Israel to ease its campaign of genocide of the Palestinians remains to be seen.
PRESIDENT VLADIMIR’S WARNING TO THE WEST ON RUSSIAN SECURITY
In an important speech in April 2021, Vladimir Putin In April 2021 Russian President Vladimir Putin sternly warned the West against encroaching further on Russia's security interests, saying Moscow's response would be "quick and tough" and make the culprits feel bitterly sorry for their actions. The warning came during Putin's annual state-of-the-nation address amid a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine, where cease-fire violations in the seven-year conflict between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have escalated in recent weeks. The United States and its allies have urged the Kremlin to pull the troops back. “I hope that no one dares to cross the red line concerning Russia, and we will determine where it is in each specific case," Putin said. "Those who organize any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their deeds more than they regretted anything for a long time." In his speech, Putin pointed to Russia's moves to modernize its nuclear arsenals and said the military would continue to procure a growing number of state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles and other new weapons. He added that the development of the nuclear-armed Poseidon underwater drone and the nuclear-powered cruise missile continues successfully. In an apparent reference to the U.S. and its allies, the Russian leader denounced those who impose "unlawful, politically motivated economic sanctions and crude attempts to enforce its will on others." He said Russia has shown restraint and often refrained from responding to "openly boorish" actions by others. Putin further warned the West against encroaching further on Russia's security interests, saying Moscow's response would be "quick and tough" and make the culprits feel bitterly sorry for their actions. The warning came during Putin's annual state-of-the-nation address amid a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine, where cease-fire violations in the seven-year conflict between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have escalated in recent weeks. The United States and its allies have urged the Kremlin to pull the troops back. “I hope that no one dares to cross the red line concerning Russia, and we will determine where it is in each specific case," Putin said. "Those who organize any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their deeds more than they regretted anything for a long time." In his speech, Putin pointed to Russia's moves to modernize its nuclear arsenals and said the military would continue to procure a growing number of state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles and other new weapons. In an apparent reference to the U.S. and its allies, the Russian leader denounced those who impose "unlawful, politically motivated economic sanctions and crude attempts to enforce its will on others." He said Russia has shown restraint and often refrained from responding to "openly boorish" actions by others. The question that arises is how seriously President Joe Biden takes Russia as a competitor for a place in the table setting up the so-called rule-based world that the West had been imposing on the shackled world in Africa and in Asia.
THE RISK OF PUTTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SPACE
Incredible yet frightening at the same time that according to US intelligence President Vladimir Putin is planning to put nuclear weapons in space. But then it was not the first time. In 1962 the US had done it in the tiny Johnstone Atoll in the middle of the Pacific. Elsewhere around the region, people gathered to watch, expecting to see a small burst of light, maybe something like a shooting star. Instead, the entire sky lit up, bringing daylight to the middle of the night. A giant ball of plasma erupted above them, particles of radiation raining down on the atmosphere. ‘It looked as though the heavens had belched forth a new sun that flared briefly, but long enough to set the sky on fire,’ said one account in the Hilo Tribune-Herald. The bomb was launched from Johnston Atoll in the South Pacific. This was Starfish Prime, a 1.4 megaton bomb, 500 times as powerful as Hiroshima. It aimed to examine how a nuclear bomb in space would affect Earth’s atmosphere. One could compare the decision of US President Harry Truman to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki, albeit no evidence is still available that though the main enemy of World War II was Germany, Truman decided to bomb Japanese cities, which were not the main theater of the War. Decidedly the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the destruction that followed forced President Franklin Roosevelt to declare war on Japan. One could construct a scenario that Japan was destroyed because it was an Asian country and not a part of Europe when Churchill, Stalin, and Franklin Roosevelt were engaged in the Yalta Conference busy dividing the defeated Germany and constructing the edifice of the Nuremberg Trial.
Pakistani saga continues unabated. Imran Khan and his political Party Pakistan Tehrik of Insaf, once favored by the army establishment, are banned from participating in the elections. Imran Khan is now serving fourteen years on corruption charges. In a letter to the famous British Journal, The Economist Imran Khan called the election a farce. His “ fault” was reading out to the National Assembly a coded telegram the Pakistani ambassador in the US had sent home. He is also accused of selling jewelry he and his wife received from places they visited which according to rules should have been deposited in government-maintained treasury. The Army Establishment has been in control of Pakistani politics either through martial law or through controlling the country from behind.
ARMY’S STRANGLEHOLD ON PAKISTAN CONTINUES
Except for a brief period of civilian rule after independence from British rule in 1947 the Army establishment has been in control of the country. The latest tally announced by the Election Commission on 13th February this year shows that the election of the leader of the house, or prime minister must win a simple majority - 169 of the 336 seats. There can be multiple candidates for prime minister. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a second vote is held between the top two candidates. Voting will continue till one person can secure a majority. Negotiations for a coalition government are taking place between former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's party, with 75 seats. The party of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of a former President and assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto whose father was also a former Prime Minister but was assassinated by the army establishment, with 54 seats, as well as other smaller parties. Independent candidates backed by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats - 93 - and they are also jostling for allies to form government. Candidates were vying for 264 seats out of the assembly's 336 total number of seats.
It is most surprising that the people who are known to have suffered the most horrific genocide in the world is today insist on inflicting incredible suffering on a people who have been legitimate residents of this land for centuries. According to the British newspaper The Guardian (Chris McGreal-16th November 2023) Jewish settlement in Palestine started with the late 19th-century Jewish migration to what was then the Ottoman Empire – to escape the pogroms and other persecutions in Eastern Europe – and the rise of Zionism. Others think that the settlement started with the Balfour declaration by the British government in 1917 in support of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine and the ensuing conflicts with Arab communities there. But the starting point for many people is the United Nations’ vote in 1947 to partition land in the British mandate of Palestine into two states – one Jewish, one Arab – following the destruction of much of European Jewry in the Holocaust. Neither the Palestinians nor the neighboring Arab countries accepted the founding of modern Israel. The crucial element in my opinion was the recognition by President Harry Truman of Israel as the homeland for the Jews. With American support in the background, an armistice agreement in 1949 saw new de facto borders that gave the fledgling Jewish state considerably more territory than it was awarded under the UN partition plan.
According to Asian Development Bank Bangladesh is doing well. The ADB report states that exports, remittances, and domestic consumption buoyed Bangladesh’s economy in fiscal year (FY) 2022, which ended on 30 June 2022. Gross domestic product growth was at 7.1%, up from 6.9% in FY 2021. Growth, however, was dampened by the global economic slowdown caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which affected Bangladesh’s economy through a widening external balance and rising inflation. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is a key source of external assistance for Bangladesh, providing $2 billion on average every year since 2016. ADB’s assistance is aligned with the country’s Eighth Five-Year Plan, 2021–2025, and the Perspective Plan, 2021–2041. To date, ADB has committed 701 public sector loans, grants, and technical assistance totaling $28.3 billion to Bangladesh. Cumulative loan and grant disbursements to Bangladesh amount to $21.19 billion. These were financed by regular and concessional ordinary capital resources, the Asian Development Fund, and other special funds. ADB’s ongoing sovereign portfolio in Bangladesh includes 70 loans and 4 grants worth $11.31 billion.1 ADB committed $1.6 billion in public sector loans and grants to Bangladesh in 2022. This included $250 million for social protection and $200 million in microenterprise financing for job creation to support recovery from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The report is encouraging.
ARTICLE BY AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWRUL MASUD.
THE RISE AND DECLINE OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER?
Preventing the Spread of nuclear weapons: The Nonproliferation Treaty and Regime
Somewhat miraculously, it proved possible to negotiate a legally binding multilateral treaty that acknowledged and accepted the five nuclear weapon states that existed at the time but prohibited all other signatories from building or otherwise acquiring nuclear weapons. Across time, also perhaps somewhat miraculously, nearly every state in the international system (191 member states) signed the treaty; every state that does not possess nuclear weapons (with the single exception of South Sudan) has signed a legal instrument in which they accept a binding obligation to remain non-nuclear. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty entered into force in 1970 and became the legal foundation for an evolving regime of technology controls and mandated inspections of nuclear facilities aimed both at preventing the spread of weapons-related nuclear technology and at discouraging the use of civilian nuclear facilities for illicit weapons-related purposes. Adaptions in the regime often came after some undesirable development or challenge to the system. After the 1974 Indian nuclear test, for example, a Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) was established to harmonize export controls on sensitive nuclear technologies and to deny weapons-related technologies to potentially worrisome recipients. Similarly, after the discovery of Iraq’s illicit nuclear weapons program in 1990, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) developed a new set of information requirements and inspection measures, enumerated in a document called the Additional Protocol, that enhanced the IAEA’s access to information and its powers of inspection.
In recent decades, China has shunned formal alliances for both pragmatic and ideological reasons and has criticized the United States’ vast alliance network as a “vestige of the Cold War.” But Beijing has increasingly resorted to semantic gymnastics to talk about its alignment with Russia. Chinese statements regularly insist that the bilateral partnership is “not an alliance” and “not targeted” against any third party while also making the case that China and Russia’s relationship “surpasses” traditional alliances. Even before the joint statement in February 2022, Beijing had stressed that no areas of cooperation were off limits and that the partnership would stand firm in the face of international headwinds.
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AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL
I am deeply indebted to Robert Peters, Sarah Alison and Andrew J Harding of the Heritage Foundation for indicating the way forward in writing my article on assessing China’s expanding nuclear arsenal. Their article has been not only to me but I presume many scholars in articulating the difficulties one faces in trying to understand the complexities of China’s ambition in not only edging out the USA from the leadership in South Asia but also to establish herself for a seat, along with Russia, in their challenge to the multipolar world now peopled by the USA, the European Union and the rest of the Western world.
CHANGE IN CHINA’S NUCLEAR POLICY SINCE XI- JINPING’S RULE
Since General Secretary Xi Jinping’s tenure, China has slowly but nevertheless effectively walked back its “no first use” policy to say that it would only use nuclear weapons if China was the victim of a “strategic attack”—without defining what constitutes a strategic attack. Such a change in nuclear declaratory policy is of course China’s right. Until a few years ago, the United States did not see any change to Chinese fielded nuclear forces—until a 2021 report that made it clear that China was fielding theater-range ballistic and cruise missiles that could carry nuclear or conventional explosives. These theater missiles, it turns out, are optimized to strike large capital ships—such as American aircraft carriers—and large fixed land targets, such as American bases on Guam or Japan. Couple the sensor packages that can target ships steaming at 30 knots over the horizon with a theater-range missile carrying a nuclear weapon, and it became clear that China was building and fielding nuclear theater warfighting weapons—not the type of weapons that are part of a minimal deterrence posture meant to prevent nuclear attack in the first place.
Ihsan Tharoor in a report in The Washington Post said that long before shock election results released eroded Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political mandate, the seeds of discontent were planted in the poor, zigzagging alleys housing Indians at the foot of society. Months ago, upper-caste members of Modi’s party boasted they would gain so much political power that they would amend India’s constitution to remove affirmative action, said villager Yogendra Kumar.
SURPRISE REVOLT BY THE DALITS
There was another problem. Modi never delivered jobs to the poor or kept inflation in check. Dalits, formerly known as untouchables, and part of the crucial voter bloc that delivered the biggest surprise this week. Low-caste Hindus in the Hindi-speaking heartland who unexpectedly rebelled against Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. While the BJP won the most parliamentary seats, it fell well short of securing the majority needed to form a government. In a bruising campaign over the past seven weeks, Modi often appealed to religion, portraying himself as a champion of Hindus anointed by God and denouncing Muslims as “infiltrators.” But ultimately, according to political analysts, the election was decided along the fault lines of caste and class. In the key state of Uttar Pradesh, where Modi had inaugurated a massive temple in January in an effort to consolidate the Hindu vote, many low-caste Hindus voted in a similar fashion as Muslims, another group that has been dissatisfied with Modi’s rule.
AMBASSADOR KAZI ANWARUL MASUD.
In May this year George Friedman of Geo-Political Futures wrote an article on the recent shake up in Moscow. He termed the shakeup as “massive” reflected in the departure of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his replacement by a former Minister of Economic Development. It is not clear, I wrote, what the shakeup means. Perhaps President Vladimir Putin wants a better balance between military and economic affairs. It also indicates Russia-China deep friendship and their combined opposition to the almost fifty years’ uninterrupted rule by the US over the so-called “rule based” world. Many developing countries have flocked to Chinese call for infra-structural development in their countries which hey needed but did not have the money. Their preference for the Chinese call was despite the open call by Donald Trump’s Vice President Michael Pence of a “Chinese Debt Trap”.
A GOVERNMENT SHAKEUP IN MOSCOW
The Russian government announced recently a massive shakeup of its senior staff. Several ministers in civilian sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and trade, and transportation were relieved of their positions, but the most notable departure was Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was replaced by Andrei Belousov, a former assistant to Vladimir Putin and a former minister of economic development. Putin has insisted that Shoigu, the architect of the war in Ukraine, will still be involved in military affairs, and his appointment as secretary of the Security Council is perhaps a testament to the president’s sincerity. Indeed, there is little reason to believe this is some kind of Stalinist purge. Putin has made every effort to dismiss the idea that the team that managed the war failed.
PUTIN WANTS A BETTER BALANCE OF MILATARY AND ECONOMIC AFFAIRS
Recent government statements suggest that Putin needs a better balance of military and economic affairs, so installing a former economic development minister to the top defense post makes sense in this regard. Even so, we would be remiss if we neglected to mention reports that one senior Defense Ministry official was arrested and charged with corruption. Whether this is a single event or the beginning of more arrests (or worse) is yet unknown.
WHAT DOES THE SHAKEUP MEAN?
It isn’t immediately clear what Putin means in practical terms when he speaks of balancing military and economic affairs, which must be balanced in all wars if armies are to be supplied and citizens fed. Things do not seem especially out of balance in this war, so it might simply be a means of glossing over a radical shift, a way to avoid, to the extent possible, a sense of crisis. There is in fact not so much a crisis but rather a long-term reality the Kremlin tried to ignore and other participants cannot seem to grasp.
FAULTY ASSUMPTION OF QUICK VICTORY OVER UKRAINE
Moscow started the war under the assumption Ukraine would be rapidly defeated. That obviously was wishful thinking. Over two years later, Russia holds only 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. Kyiv has even recovered some parts Moscow had taken earlier. There has been a sense throughout the war that Ukraine could be breaking. It hasn’t broken yet, and neither has Russia. But as expectations continue to diverge from reality, that sense has eroded. The emphasis on the economy might be a diversion, part of a belief that the war could be sustained and the public placated if the Russian economy recovered.
CHINA’S ENTRY IN RUSSIA’S COMBAT
Putin also met last week with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China has long made it clear that it will not join Russia in combat. But it might support Moscow on the economy. But the Chinese economy has weakened dramatically in the last two years, and the Russians know this. Putin has mentioned negotiations, which the United States has been floating for some time. Russia has set terms, most notably the ouster of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He remains in place, and it would seem that if Russia were to choose between continuing the war and ousting Zelenskyy, it would choose the latter. It’s hard to know exactly what to make of the government reshuffle. Many familiar names are still in power, and some are overtaking portfolios they seem to have no experience in. This makes little obvious sense, even if it conveys a feeling that time is running out on the war. Of course, it could be a clearing of the deck for a major attack. It makes a good cover. But after two years and limited advances, you don’t need a diversion of weakness. It’s already there.
FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTION OF STRATEGY
The fundamental presumption of strategy, be it local or far-reaching, is that far-reaching is that the strategy would not be so costly that it would be self-defeating and suicidal. Since no country would like to commit suicide the possibility of nuclear confrontation among nations is not a possibility despite whatever Russia may be threatening Ukraine with. The question that may arise in the White House and the US partners is whether Ukraine is worth boots on the ground when Benjamin Netanyahu remains in charge with the US getting nothing from him. How long the US would tolerate Netanyahu’s disregard of US pressure on Israel to ease its campaign of genocide of the Palestinians remains to be seen.
PRESIDENT VLADIMIR’S WARNING TO THE WEST ON RUSSIAN SECURITY
In an important speech in April 2021, Vladimir Putin In April 2021 Russian President Vladimir Putin sternly warned the West against encroaching further on Russia's security interests, saying Moscow's response would be "quick and tough" and make the culprits feel bitterly sorry for their actions. The warning came during Putin's annual state-of-the-nation address amid a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine, where cease-fire violations in the seven-year conflict between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have escalated in recent weeks. The United States and its allies have urged the Kremlin to pull the troops back. “I hope that no one dares to cross the red line concerning Russia, and we will determine where it is in each specific case," Putin said. "Those who organize any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their deeds more than they regretted anything for a long time." In his speech, Putin pointed to Russia's moves to modernize its nuclear arsenals and said the military would continue to procure a growing number of state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles and other new weapons. He added that the development of the nuclear-armed Poseidon underwater drone and the nuclear-powered cruise missile continues successfully. In an apparent reference to the U.S. and its allies, the Russian leader denounced those who impose "unlawful, politically motivated economic sanctions and crude attempts to enforce its will on others." He said Russia has shown restraint and often refrained from responding to "openly boorish" actions by others. Putin further warned the West against encroaching further on Russia's security interests, saying Moscow's response would be "quick and tough" and make the culprits feel bitterly sorry for their actions. The warning came during Putin's annual state-of-the-nation address amid a massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine, where cease-fire violations in the seven-year conflict between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have escalated in recent weeks. The United States and its allies have urged the Kremlin to pull the troops back. “I hope that no one dares to cross the red line concerning Russia, and we will determine where it is in each specific case," Putin said. "Those who organize any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their deeds more than they regretted anything for a long time." In his speech, Putin pointed to Russia's moves to modernize its nuclear arsenals and said the military would continue to procure a growing number of state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles and other new weapons. In an apparent reference to the U.S. and its allies, the Russian leader denounced those who impose "unlawful, politically motivated economic sanctions and crude attempts to enforce its will on others." He said Russia has shown restraint and often refrained from responding to "openly boorish" actions by others. The question that arises is how seriously President Joe Biden takes Russia as a competitor for a place in the table setting up the so-called rule-based world that the West had been imposing on the shackled world in Africa and in Asia.
THE RISK OF PUTTING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SPACE
Incredible yet frightening at the same time that according to US intelligence President Vladimir Putin is planning to put nuclear weapons in space. But then it was not the first time. In 1962 the US had done it in the tiny Johnstone Atoll in the middle of the Pacific. Elsewhere around the region, people gathered to watch, expecting to see a small burst of light, maybe something like a shooting star. Instead, the entire sky lit up, bringing daylight to the middle of the night. A giant ball of plasma erupted above them, particles of radiation raining down on the atmosphere. ‘It looked as though the heavens had belched forth a new sun that flared briefly, but long enough to set the sky on fire,’ said one account in the Hilo Tribune-Herald. The bomb was launched from Johnston Atoll in the South Pacific. This was Starfish Prime, a 1.4 megaton bomb, 500 times as powerful as Hiroshima. It aimed to examine how a nuclear bomb in space would affect Earth’s atmosphere. One could compare the decision of US President Harry Truman to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki, albeit no evidence is still available that though the main enemy of World War II was Germany, Truman decided to bomb Japanese cities, which were not the main theater of the War. Decidedly the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the destruction that followed forced President Franklin Roosevelt to declare war on Japan. One could construct a scenario that Japan was destroyed because it was an Asian country and not a part of Europe when Churchill, Stalin, and Franklin Roosevelt were engaged in the Yalta Conference busy dividing the defeated Germany and constructing the edifice of the Nuremberg Trial.
Pakistani saga continues unabated. Imran Khan and his political Party Pakistan Tehrik of Insaf, once favored by the army establishment, are banned from participating in the elections. Imran Khan is now serving fourteen years on corruption charges. In a letter to the famous British Journal, The Economist Imran Khan called the election a farce. His “ fault” was reading out to the National Assembly a coded telegram the Pakistani ambassador in the US had sent home. He is also accused of selling jewelry he and his wife received from places they visited which according to rules should have been deposited in government-maintained treasury. The Army Establishment has been in control of Pakistani politics either through martial law or through controlling the country from behind.
ARMY’S STRANGLEHOLD ON PAKISTAN CONTINUES
Except for a brief period of civilian rule after independence from British rule in 1947 the Army establishment has been in control of the country. The latest tally announced by the Election Commission on 13th February this year shows that the election of the leader of the house, or prime minister must win a simple majority - 169 of the 336 seats. There can be multiple candidates for prime minister. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a second vote is held between the top two candidates. Voting will continue till one person can secure a majority. Negotiations for a coalition government are taking place between former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's party, with 75 seats. The party of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of a former President and assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto whose father was also a former Prime Minister but was assassinated by the army establishment, with 54 seats, as well as other smaller parties. Independent candidates backed by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats - 93 - and they are also jostling for allies to form government. Candidates were vying for 264 seats out of the assembly's 336 total number of seats.
It is most surprising that the people who are known to have suffered the most horrific genocide in the world is today insist on inflicting incredible suffering on a people who have been legitimate residents of this land for centuries. According to the British newspaper The Guardian (Chris McGreal-16th November 2023) Jewish settlement in Palestine started with the late 19th-century Jewish migration to what was then the Ottoman Empire – to escape the pogroms and other persecutions in Eastern Europe – and the rise of Zionism. Others think that the settlement started with the Balfour declaration by the British government in 1917 in support of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine and the ensuing conflicts with Arab communities there. But the starting point for many people is the United Nations’ vote in 1947 to partition land in the British mandate of Palestine into two states – one Jewish, one Arab – following the destruction of much of European Jewry in the Holocaust. Neither the Palestinians nor the neighboring Arab countries accepted the founding of modern Israel. The crucial element in my opinion was the recognition by President Harry Truman of Israel as the homeland for the Jews. With American support in the background, an armistice agreement in 1949 saw new de facto borders that gave the fledgling Jewish state considerably more territory than it was awarded under the UN partition plan.
According to Asian Development Bank Bangladesh is doing well. The ADB report states that exports, remittances, and domestic consumption buoyed Bangladesh’s economy in fiscal year (FY) 2022, which ended on 30 June 2022. Gross domestic product growth was at 7.1%, up from 6.9% in FY 2021. Growth, however, was dampened by the global economic slowdown caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which affected Bangladesh’s economy through a widening external balance and rising inflation. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is a key source of external assistance for Bangladesh, providing $2 billion on average every year since 2016. ADB’s assistance is aligned with the country’s Eighth Five-Year Plan, 2021–2025, and the Perspective Plan, 2021–2041. To date, ADB has committed 701 public sector loans, grants, and technical assistance totaling $28.3 billion to Bangladesh. Cumulative loan and grant disbursements to Bangladesh amount to $21.19 billion. These were financed by regular and concessional ordinary capital resources, the Asian Development Fund, and other special funds. ADB’s ongoing sovereign portfolio in Bangladesh includes 70 loans and 4 grants worth $11.31 billion.1 ADB committed $1.6 billion in public sector loans and grants to Bangladesh in 2022. This included $250 million for social protection and $200 million in microenterprise financing for job creation to support recovery from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The report is encouraging.
In December 2019 Deborah Brautigham of John University in New York in the US wrote an interesting paper ( A Critical Look at “ Chinese Debt Trap Diplomacy” The Rise of a Meme). The paper delves into depth into the idea publicly warned by Donald Trump’s Vice President Mike Pence to the developing countries to be aware of the Chinese strategic plan of her aspiration to become a rising superpower that will write the rules to be abided by the rest of the world. Additionally, Deborah Brautigham wrote of the warning to African leaders by Hillary Clinton, then Secretary of State on a visit in 2011, to Africa to warn Africans against ‘the new colonialism’; and at the 2014 US–Africa summit, President Barack Obama’s paternalistic advice to African leaders that they ‘make sure that if China is putting in roads and bridges, that they’re hiring African workers. This US claim that China does not employ African workers, has been proved to be unfounded by scholars such as Barry