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Using Scikit-learn Multiple Regression to Predict NBA Rookies' Third Year Rating from Athletic Test

Published: 01 June 2024 Publication History

Abstract

The target of this paper is to help NBA teams make wise decisions during the draft. Before the draft, the relatively complete statistics of rookies is an official athletic test holds by the NBA. Thus, the paper works on predicting the future rating of the rookies due to their statistics from athletic tests. Our prediction is based on a set of multiple regression models. We filtrate, split, and integrate the data. Then, we do tests to pick out the best set of independent variables that would fit the model best. Finally, our model works with r square in range 0.25-0.45, which is relatively good for models predicting human behaviours. Though, the result provided by our model is not accurate enough to make accurate rating predictions. However, the result of our model can provide an insight for the teams about the potential of the players under regular circumstances. Team cannot pick rookies based on our results. However, considering our results as a reference would be a great choice.

References

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Athletic Staff. 2022. NBA average viewership up 19% for 2021-22 vs. last season across ABC, TNT, ESPN. https://theathletic.com/news/nba-2022-viewership-increase/XGIlWmDSNoPZ/
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Miller, B. 2018. Using Automated Machine Learning to Predict NBA Player Performance. https://www.datarobot.com/blog/using-datarobot-to-predict-nba-player-performance/
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FiveThirtyEight. 2021. How Our NBA Predictions Work. https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nba-predictions-work/
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Hauri, S. Djuric, N. Radosavljevic, V. Vucetic, S, Temple University, Uber ATG, Spotify. 2021. Multi-Modal Trajectory Prediction of NBA Players. https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/WACV2021/papers/Hauri_Multi-Modal_Trajectory_Prediction_of_NBA_Players_WACV_2021_paper.pdf
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Liu, Z. 2018. NBA player improvement prediction. https://github.com/zxl124/NBA_improvement_prediction
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HOOPSTYPE. 2022. Players Rating. https://hoopshype.com/nba2k/
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Statistics How To. 2022. Mean Squared Error: Definition and Example. https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/statistics-definitions/mean-squared-error/
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National Basketball Association. 2022. Draft Combine Strength & Agility. https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-strength-agility/
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Foltz, B. 2014. Statistics 101: Multiple Linear Regression, The Very Basics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQNpSa-bq4M&list=PLIeGtxpvyG-IqjoU8IiF0Yu1WtxNq_4z-&index=2
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Abhigyan. 2020. Understanding Polynomial Regression!!!. https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/understanding-polynomial-regression-5ac25b970e18

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    AIBDF '23: Proceedings of the 2023 3rd Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Forum
    September 2023
    577 pages
    ISBN:9798400716362
    DOI:10.1145/3660395
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected].

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    New York, NY, United States

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    Published: 01 June 2024

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