Confounding most predictions, by far the most significant housing impact of the pandemic in Austr... more Confounding most predictions, by far the most significant housing impact of the pandemic in Australia has been the house price boom that took off in late 2020; stimulated by Government measures to boost private market demand, this has compounded longstanding unaffordability, inequality and indebtednessLess reported has been the rapid escalation in rent inflation from mid-2020, with annual national increases accelerating to over 8% by Q3 2021 – the fastest rate of increase for well over a decade, and far ahead of wage growth (at 1.7%); rents in regional Australia meanwhile surged by a remarkable 12.4% in the year to August 2021Damaging impacts of recent trends on rental affordability in regional Australia are confirmed by detailed figures for non-metropolitan Victoria showing the proportion of tenancies affordable to low-income tenants declining from 41% to 33% in the year to Q2 2021The key causes of recent regional rent inflation are likely to lie in new demand hitting markets where there is currently unusually low turnover in existing rental properties and new properties entering the rental sector – measured by new tenancy bonds lodged, private rental supply fell by 6% in 2020-21 in regional NSW and by 15% in regional VictoriaAfter the extraordinary rental policy responses of 2020 – eviction moratoriums, rent variation and rent relief schemes – similar actions in reaction to 2021 lockdowns were comparatively light. Whereas in 2020 all states and territories implemented eviction moratoriums, in 2021 only half imposed similar restrictions during Delta outbreaks – and notably the jurisdiction most affected, Victoria, enacted no second moratorium.The few published data indicate the incompleteness of the moratoriums: almost 3,000 South Australian tenancies were subject to eviction proceedings during the moratorium in 2020, and almost 4,600 tenancies were subject to termination proceedings in New South Wales in the first 10 weeks of its 2021 ‘stay at home’ lockdown.Most of the 2020 rent relief schemes were undersubscribed, reflecting the significance of federal income support programs, lack of engagement in rent negotiations and the weak delivery of relief through rebates on land tax (from which most landlords are already exempt).In both the boarding house sector, and in international student support, there are highly knowledgeable workers engaged directly with persons in need; their capacity could be enhanced and leveraged to inform support strategies for each sector.During 2020 at least 12,073 rough sleepers benefited from COVID-19 Emergency Accommodation (EA) programs staged by NSW, South Australia, Queensland, and Victoria, although in the first two of these, there has been no significant follow-through in terms of expanding permanent social and affordable housing provisionBy 2022 EA placements and move-on housing programs in NSW and Victoria alone will have facilitated safe, secure and supported accommodation pathways for around 3,500 former rough sleepers with complex needs; at least partially relieving the growing backlog of chronic rough sleepers built up over previous years.Unlike Victoria, the NSW Government has resisted calls for stimulus investment to significantly expand permanent social housing provision; as a result, longer term housing pathways for assisted former rough sleepers assisted in the state will be at the expense of others in severe housing need.In 2020 and 2021 four state governments announced significant self-funded social housing construction programs as a component of post-pandemic stimulus investment; these add up to nearly $10 billion to be invested over the next few years.In all, state/territory governments plan to construct over 23,000 social housing units over the three years from 2021-22; a threefold increase on national social housebuilding rates during the late 2010s, and comparable in scale to the Rudd Government’s post-GFC Social Housing Initiative (2009-12).The scale of planned development in Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania, will (at least temporarily) reverse historically declining representation of social housing in these states; in other jurisdictions a continuing contraction in the sector’s share of all dwellings is in prospect, with NSW’s social housing set to fall below 4% of total occupied stock within 10 years (for reference, the OECD average is 7.1%).While both remarkable and badly needed, Australia’s recent social housing construction revival is not only patchy across the country, but also unsustainable without a reversal in current Australian Government policy eschewing additional financial support to enable social housing growth (whether via public or community housing)
The rising tide of counter-anti-social behaviour (ASB) legislation and the continuing salience of... more The rising tide of counter-anti-social behaviour (ASB) legislation and the continuing salience of the issue in political and media debates in part reflect how unruly and yobbish behaviour blights some local communities. However, the prominence of ASB as a'national problem'is ...
Four years after its announcement, the Queensland government last week cancelled the central plan... more Four years after its announcement, the Queensland government last week cancelled the central plank in the Logan Renewal Initiative: the overhaul of Logan’s 4,900 public housing dwellings by a community-housing-provider-led consortium. The initiative is a planned 20-year strategy to reshape Logan, an outer-suburban centre in Brisbane’s southeast. It would have been Australia’s largest and most-ambitious residential urban regeneration project
This international knowledge exchange project explored the conventional housing policy narratives... more This international knowledge exchange project explored the conventional housing policy narratives that have dominated government thinking in Australia, Britain and Canada (the ABC countries) over the past 20-30 years. It sought to construct more effective, progressive policy narratives robust enough to thrive within the tough competitive environments that prevail within public policy-making and budgetary processes.The collaboration involved three academic partner organisations – University of Glasgow, University of Toronto and UNSW – as well as a constellation of industry and government bodies in the three countries. These included the Australian not-for-profit entities Bridge Housing Ltd, Brisbane Housing Company, Community Housing Ltd, and Housing Choices.The project sought to draw on published and ongoing research, as well as learning from the direct experience of communities, city halls, boardrooms and governments – represented through the non-academic partner organisations. Academic-industry interchange was achieved through international workshop events in Sydney and Toronto, as well as through a series of broader industry consultation events in Australia, Britain and Canada 2016-2018
Confounding most predictions, by far the most significant housing impact of the pandemic in Austr... more Confounding most predictions, by far the most significant housing impact of the pandemic in Australia has been the house price boom that took off in late 2020; stimulated by Government measures to boost private market demand, this has compounded longstanding unaffordability, inequality and indebtednessLess reported has been the rapid escalation in rent inflation from mid-2020, with annual national increases accelerating to over 8% by Q3 2021 – the fastest rate of increase for well over a decade, and far ahead of wage growth (at 1.7%); rents in regional Australia meanwhile surged by a remarkable 12.4% in the year to August 2021Damaging impacts of recent trends on rental affordability in regional Australia are confirmed by detailed figures for non-metropolitan Victoria showing the proportion of tenancies affordable to low-income tenants declining from 41% to 33% in the year to Q2 2021The key causes of recent regional rent inflation are likely to lie in new demand hitting markets where there is currently unusually low turnover in existing rental properties and new properties entering the rental sector – measured by new tenancy bonds lodged, private rental supply fell by 6% in 2020-21 in regional NSW and by 15% in regional VictoriaAfter the extraordinary rental policy responses of 2020 – eviction moratoriums, rent variation and rent relief schemes – similar actions in reaction to 2021 lockdowns were comparatively light. Whereas in 2020 all states and territories implemented eviction moratoriums, in 2021 only half imposed similar restrictions during Delta outbreaks – and notably the jurisdiction most affected, Victoria, enacted no second moratorium.The few published data indicate the incompleteness of the moratoriums: almost 3,000 South Australian tenancies were subject to eviction proceedings during the moratorium in 2020, and almost 4,600 tenancies were subject to termination proceedings in New South Wales in the first 10 weeks of its 2021 ‘stay at home’ lockdown.Most of the 2020 rent relief schemes were undersubscribed, reflecting the significance of federal income support programs, lack of engagement in rent negotiations and the weak delivery of relief through rebates on land tax (from which most landlords are already exempt).In both the boarding house sector, and in international student support, there are highly knowledgeable workers engaged directly with persons in need; their capacity could be enhanced and leveraged to inform support strategies for each sector.During 2020 at least 12,073 rough sleepers benefited from COVID-19 Emergency Accommodation (EA) programs staged by NSW, South Australia, Queensland, and Victoria, although in the first two of these, there has been no significant follow-through in terms of expanding permanent social and affordable housing provisionBy 2022 EA placements and move-on housing programs in NSW and Victoria alone will have facilitated safe, secure and supported accommodation pathways for around 3,500 former rough sleepers with complex needs; at least partially relieving the growing backlog of chronic rough sleepers built up over previous years.Unlike Victoria, the NSW Government has resisted calls for stimulus investment to significantly expand permanent social housing provision; as a result, longer term housing pathways for assisted former rough sleepers assisted in the state will be at the expense of others in severe housing need.In 2020 and 2021 four state governments announced significant self-funded social housing construction programs as a component of post-pandemic stimulus investment; these add up to nearly $10 billion to be invested over the next few years.In all, state/territory governments plan to construct over 23,000 social housing units over the three years from 2021-22; a threefold increase on national social housebuilding rates during the late 2010s, and comparable in scale to the Rudd Government’s post-GFC Social Housing Initiative (2009-12).The scale of planned development in Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania, will (at least temporarily) reverse historically declining representation of social housing in these states; in other jurisdictions a continuing contraction in the sector’s share of all dwellings is in prospect, with NSW’s social housing set to fall below 4% of total occupied stock within 10 years (for reference, the OECD average is 7.1%).While both remarkable and badly needed, Australia’s recent social housing construction revival is not only patchy across the country, but also unsustainable without a reversal in current Australian Government policy eschewing additional financial support to enable social housing growth (whether via public or community housing)
The rising tide of counter-anti-social behaviour (ASB) legislation and the continuing salience of... more The rising tide of counter-anti-social behaviour (ASB) legislation and the continuing salience of the issue in political and media debates in part reflect how unruly and yobbish behaviour blights some local communities. However, the prominence of ASB as a'national problem'is ...
Four years after its announcement, the Queensland government last week cancelled the central plan... more Four years after its announcement, the Queensland government last week cancelled the central plank in the Logan Renewal Initiative: the overhaul of Logan’s 4,900 public housing dwellings by a community-housing-provider-led consortium. The initiative is a planned 20-year strategy to reshape Logan, an outer-suburban centre in Brisbane’s southeast. It would have been Australia’s largest and most-ambitious residential urban regeneration project
This international knowledge exchange project explored the conventional housing policy narratives... more This international knowledge exchange project explored the conventional housing policy narratives that have dominated government thinking in Australia, Britain and Canada (the ABC countries) over the past 20-30 years. It sought to construct more effective, progressive policy narratives robust enough to thrive within the tough competitive environments that prevail within public policy-making and budgetary processes.The collaboration involved three academic partner organisations – University of Glasgow, University of Toronto and UNSW – as well as a constellation of industry and government bodies in the three countries. These included the Australian not-for-profit entities Bridge Housing Ltd, Brisbane Housing Company, Community Housing Ltd, and Housing Choices.The project sought to draw on published and ongoing research, as well as learning from the direct experience of communities, city halls, boardrooms and governments – represented through the non-academic partner organisations. Academic-industry interchange was achieved through international workshop events in Sydney and Toronto, as well as through a series of broader industry consultation events in Australia, Britain and Canada 2016-2018
Many developed economies, especially in 'liberal welfare regimes', have experienced a substantial... more Many developed economies, especially in 'liberal welfare regimes', have experienced a substantial growth in private rental housing. Bound up with this dynamic is the rising incidence of long-term private renting (private renting for ten years or more). Regulation of the private rental sector in liberal welfare regimes is light and post the written agreement residents are subject to constant de jure insecurity. Drawing on a questionnaire survey and in-depth interviews (the primary focus), this article investigates the impacts of perpetual de jure housing insecurity on long-term private renters in diverse housing markets (low-, medium-and high-rent) in Sydney and Melbourne. The results indicate that de jure insecurity does not necessarily translate into de facto insecurity. Long-term private renters typically respond to perpetual de jure insecurity in one of three ways – incessant anxiety and fear; lack of concern; and concern offset by economic/social capital and traded off against locational preference.
Breaking Ground: Progress update and assessment of Queensland's housing crisis, 2024
This study was commissioned by QCOSS and follows on from our 2023 QCOSS-sponsored report that pre... more This study was commissioned by QCOSS and follows on from our 2023 QCOSS-sponsored report that presented a ‘blueprint’ on possible reforms to address Queensland's housing and homelessness policy challenges. Proposals were structured under four headings: 1. Enhancement of housing policymaking and housing policy governance 2. Funding necessary additional social housing provision 3. Enhancing affordability and security for low-income private tenants 4. Addressing housing policy settings negatively impacting on broader housing affordability. The current report documents and evaluates recent measures enacted by the Queensland Government and the Commonwealth Government that relate to these earlier recommendations. Beyond this, it updates and extends the detailed analysis of recent trends in housing market conditions and housing pressures affecting Queensland, as set out in our 2023 report.
Australian Homelessness Monitor (AHM) 2022 presents an independent analysis of this important soc... more Australian Homelessness Monitor (AHM) 2022 presents an independent analysis of this important social problem. Its overarching purpose is to better inform housing and homelessness policymaking. To this end the report investigates the changing scale and nature of the problem and assesses recent policy and practice developments seen in response.
Managing Access to Social Housing in Australia: Unpacking policy frameworks and service provision outcomes, 2022
As shown in this report, the past 30 years has seen Australia’s social housing sector capacity ef... more As shown in this report, the past 30 years has seen Australia’s social housing sector capacity effectively cut by more than half. This at a time when the incidence of rental housing stress and homelessness has substantially increased. Largely drawing on existing published statistics and policy documents, this research investigates the resulting effects for low income earners seeking social housing.
The report examines the ways that Australia’s state and territory governments have attempted to manage the growing pressures on social housing as an increasingly scarce resource. It reveals the ways that eligibility rules and allocations priorities shape applicants’ social housing prospects and the aggregate outcomes that result. In particular, it attempts to unravel the apparent paradox whereby the point-in-time number of social housing waiting list applications in 2021 remained little changed from 2006, in the face of growing need for such accommodation. The report also highlights gross inadequacies in Australia’s published official statistics on social housing supply and demand as a basis for effective policymaking. It also recommends some key priorities for statistical collection and publication reforms.
Build- to-Rent in Australia: Product feasibility and potential affordable housing contribution, 2019
Shifts in international investment markets, in Australia’s demographic profile and in residential... more Shifts in international investment markets, in Australia’s demographic profile and in residential consumer sentiment have recently combined to enhance the prospects for the emergence of a ‘mainstream market’ Build-to-Rent (BtR) sector in this country. This refers to the purpose-built apartment blocks designed for use as rental housing and intended to be held long-term in single ownership as revenue-generating assets. Our report is first in-depth independent study of BtR in Australia, and among the first that has focused specifically on this residential product in any national setting.
Based on a large body of industry, government and not-for-profit housing stakeholder interviews, the report investigates the interpretation of the BtR concept in Australia and the way this might unfold. Drawing on case study evidence from four case study BtR-type projects, the report goes on to calibrate the financial feasibility of various possible BtR archetypes in the Australian urban setting. As part of this, it quantifies the feasibility challenges associated with a range of Federal and state/territory government tax settings and assesses the case for their modification.
In the context of the contribution that a growing BtR sector could make to certain important public policy objectives, the report concludes that Australian governments should be doing more to enable such developments.
This is the first of two evaluation reports on the Better Places, Stronger Communities (BPSC) Pro... more This is the first of two evaluation reports on the Better Places, Stronger Communities (BPSC) Program, which is transferring the management of designated South Australian (SA) public housing dwellings to the community housing sector. The Social Policy Research Centre and City Futures Research Centre, both at UNSW Sydney, were commissioned by Housing SA to conduct a longitudinal evaluation of the BPSC Program, where the management of 1,100 public housing dwellings across two estates in Adelaide was transferred to the community housing sector. The two estates are Mitchell Park, managed by Junction Housing, and Elizabeth Grove, managed by AnglicareSA Housing.
An uncommon ‘homeowner’ protest in Shanghai in 2017 manifested public anger towards a government ... more An uncommon ‘homeowner’ protest in Shanghai in 2017 manifested public anger towards a government crackdown on commercial property converted apartments (CPCAs). Spotlighting this previously hidden but significant Chinese housing submarket, the episode highlighted ‘homeowner’ concerns over insecure property rights. Internationally, commercial-to-residential conversion is nothing new. Indeed, it has been championed as a contributor to addressing housing shortage. How has an internationally well-established practice generated such tensions in China? Focusing on the Shanghai case, this paper analyzes the processes involved in commercial-to-residential apartment conversion by examining interactions between state, market players and ‘homebuyers’, drawing on discourse and policy analysis. Reflecting consideration for short-term gains and conflict avoidance, state regulations were historically vague and open to interpretation. Non-government stakeholder behaviour was underpinned by hopes that legitimacy of residential use would be subsequently confirmed. The 2017 ‘policy clarification’ has placed CPCA owners at risk of major financial losses and possibly even homelessness. Historic policy ambiguity and erratic enforcement stored-up trouble for the future.
Housing Policy in Australia: A case for system reform, 2020
In this, the first comprehensive overview of housing policy in Australia for 25 years, we explore... more In this, the first comprehensive overview of housing policy in Australia for 25 years, we explore the economics, politics and administration of housing provision. We identify and explain the many dimensions of housing affordability and government actions affecting affordability outcomes. Building on this analysis we lay out priorities for the transformational national strategy needed for a fairer and more productive housing system.
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1. Enhancement of housing policymaking and housing policy governance
2. Funding necessary additional social housing provision
3. Enhancing affordability and security for low-income private tenants
4. Addressing housing policy settings negatively impacting on broader housing affordability.
The current report documents and evaluates recent measures enacted by the Queensland Government and the Commonwealth Government that relate to these earlier recommendations. Beyond this, it updates and extends the detailed analysis of recent trends in housing market conditions and housing pressures affecting Queensland, as set out in our 2023 report.
The report examines the ways that Australia’s state and territory governments have attempted to manage the growing pressures on social housing as an increasingly scarce resource. It reveals the ways that eligibility rules and allocations priorities shape applicants’ social housing prospects and the aggregate outcomes that result. In particular, it attempts to unravel the apparent paradox whereby the point-in-time number of social housing waiting list applications in 2021 remained little changed from 2006, in the face of growing need for such accommodation. The report also highlights gross inadequacies in Australia’s published official statistics on social housing supply and demand as a basis for effective policymaking. It also recommends some key priorities for statistical collection and publication reforms.
Based on a large body of industry, government and not-for-profit housing stakeholder interviews, the report investigates the interpretation of the BtR concept in Australia and the way this might unfold. Drawing on case study evidence from four case study BtR-type projects, the report goes on to calibrate the financial feasibility of various possible BtR archetypes in the Australian urban setting. As part of this, it quantifies the feasibility challenges associated with a range of Federal and state/territory government tax settings and assesses the case for their modification.
In the context of the contribution that a growing BtR sector could make to certain important public policy objectives, the report concludes that Australian governments should be doing more to enable such developments.