The northeast Caribbean as other insular regions lack reliable high-resolution weather forecast d... more The northeast Caribbean as other insular regions lack reliable high-resolution weather forecast data of 10meter winds to serve as the engine of numerical ocean models targeting high resolution waves and currents forecasts for nearshore areas. This issue is exacerbated due to the complex orographic features of the Antilles, which govern topographic shadowing and incoming solar radiation fields responsible for the diurnally forced convection typical of tropical island weather. A solution to this problem is currently under evaluation for the CariCOOS region. This solution employs both dynamical numerical solvers of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, which are referred to as the ARW (Advanced Research WRF), and the NMM (Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model) cores. CariCOOS research and development efforts are executed in collaboration with the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Juan (NWS WFO SJU). CariCOOS current operational WRF model setups are based on the NMM core at resolutions of 6-km, 2-km, and 1-km. These models target short and medium range forecast; the latest experimental WRF model setup is based on the ARW with resolutions of up to 500-m. The WRF-ARW setup is currently under evaluation to improve very-short-term weather forecast, in support of maritime operations of high-traffic ports and harbors (Bay of San Juan, PR, and Port of Yabucoa, PR). Noteworthy improvement have been achieved as evidenced by model skill assessments of forecasted wind speed, and wind direction of these WRF model setups when compared to in-situ observations of CariCOOS assets (land base weather stations and coastal buoys). The numerical weather prediction forecasting improvements realized via the implementation of both WRF dynamical cores are primarily driven by the increase in horizontal resolution. The most prominent improvements in weather forecasts is were achieved for the leeward side of Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands and harbor regions when simulated at very fine horizontal grid spacing resolution (less than 1-km). Considering forecast lead time requirements of the NWS WFO SJU, CariCOOS researchers constantly strive to optimize WRF model setups to its limit. Details of the various CariCOOS WRF model setups and implementations will be presented in this paper along with validation statistics.
Ocean acidification is changing surface water chemistry, but natural variability due to nearshore... more Ocean acidification is changing surface water chemistry, but natural variability due to nearshore processes can mask its effects on ecosystem responses. We present an approach of quantitatively resolving net ecosystem metabolism from an array of long‐term time series stations, offering perhaps the longest record of such processes over a reef to date. We used 8 and 6 yr of in situ, high‐quality frequency observations to characterize the changes in dissolved inorganic carbon and oxygen in La Parguera, Puerto Rico and Cheeca Rocks, Florida, respectively. Net respiration and net dissolution are the dominant metabolic processes at both systems, with a narrow window of ~ 4 months under net calcification. The annual mean net ecosystem calcification (NEC) rates for La Parguera (−0.68 ± 0.91 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) and Cheeca Rocks (−0.48 ± 0.89 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) were on the lower end of typical NEC ranges determined for other reef areas using chemistry‐ and census‐based approaches. At Cheeca Ro...
CariCOOS has implemented a mirror run of the operational numerical weather prediction model emplo... more CariCOOS has implemented a mirror run of the operational numerical weather prediction model employed by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Juan (NWS WFO SJU), which is based on the WRF NMM model. The model configuration consists of a one-way nesting of two domains with a horizontal resolution of 6-km and 2-km, respectively. CariCOOS developed a single domain configuration of the WRF NMM model having a finer horizontal spatial resolution of 1-km. These models, in general, are discrete approximations in space and time of a continuous geophysical medium being simulated. The solutions to these models are not an exact representation of reality. The goal is to keep track of the relative ability of a model to make accurate predictions. A real-time validation MATLAB® script, for numerical weather prediction (NWP), was developed to assist CariCOOS end-users in comparing the forecasts to actual data. The validation of these models was conducted by comparing in-situ wind observations (Oi), of CariCOOS observing network, with model forecast (Mi). Time histories plots of in-situ and modeled wind speed and direction are compared in real time; while also solving statistical algorithms with various validation parameters as outputs. The statistical parameters included in the real-time validation tool are: (i) the Pearson's moment correlation coefficient (r), (ii) mean bias (MB), (iii) mean absolute gross error (MAGE), (iv) root mean square error (RMSE), (v) Willmott index of agreement (IOA) and (vi) hit rate (HR). This useful real-time validation tool allows NWS WFO SJU forecasters and CariCOOS researchers to measure the skill of the model and quantify the error to determine future needs for modeling enhancements. The real-time validation framework developed facilitates CariCOOS researchers to set any validation date range, which can vary from days to months. The validation skill appraisal revealed noticeable improvement in the forecasting for both wind speed and direction by the WRF-1KM when compared to the WRF-2KM and the NWS National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) operational product. Typically the most improved locations are noticed for weather stations in regions surrounded by complex topographic features,, particularly the lee side of islands. These findings suggest that the 1-km model resolves better the local orographic forcing generated by the fine-scale topography, typical of the coastal meteorology of Caribbean islands. The improvement in forecasting 10-m winds is due to a better depiction of the 1-km resolution model of complex terrain. These findings may lead to better understanding of local convection process, which dominates the diurnal and nocturnal wind cycles of sea and land breeze, respectively.
The northeast Caribbean as other insular regions lack reliable high-resolution weather forecast d... more The northeast Caribbean as other insular regions lack reliable high-resolution weather forecast data of 10meter winds to serve as the engine of numerical ocean models targeting high resolution waves and currents forecasts for nearshore areas. This issue is exacerbated due to the complex orographic features of the Antilles, which govern topographic shadowing and incoming solar radiation fields responsible for the diurnally forced convection typical of tropical island weather. A solution to this problem is currently under evaluation for the CariCOOS region. This solution employs both dynamical numerical solvers of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, which are referred to as the ARW (Advanced Research WRF), and the NMM (Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model) cores. CariCOOS research and development efforts are executed in collaboration with the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Juan (NWS WFO SJU). CariCOOS current operational WRF model setups are based on the NMM core at resolutions of 6-km, 2-km, and 1-km. These models target short and medium range forecast; the latest experimental WRF model setup is based on the ARW with resolutions of up to 500-m. The WRF-ARW setup is currently under evaluation to improve very-short-term weather forecast, in support of maritime operations of high-traffic ports and harbors (Bay of San Juan, PR, and Port of Yabucoa, PR). Noteworthy improvement have been achieved as evidenced by model skill assessments of forecasted wind speed, and wind direction of these WRF model setups when compared to in-situ observations of CariCOOS assets (land base weather stations and coastal buoys). The numerical weather prediction forecasting improvements realized via the implementation of both WRF dynamical cores are primarily driven by the increase in horizontal resolution. The most prominent improvements in weather forecasts is were achieved for the leeward side of Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands and harbor regions when simulated at very fine horizontal grid spacing resolution (less than 1-km). Considering forecast lead time requirements of the NWS WFO SJU, CariCOOS researchers constantly strive to optimize WRF model setups to its limit. Details of the various CariCOOS WRF model setups and implementations will be presented in this paper along with validation statistics.
Ocean acidification is changing surface water chemistry, but natural variability due to nearshore... more Ocean acidification is changing surface water chemistry, but natural variability due to nearshore processes can mask its effects on ecosystem responses. We present an approach of quantitatively resolving net ecosystem metabolism from an array of long‐term time series stations, offering perhaps the longest record of such processes over a reef to date. We used 8 and 6 yr of in situ, high‐quality frequency observations to characterize the changes in dissolved inorganic carbon and oxygen in La Parguera, Puerto Rico and Cheeca Rocks, Florida, respectively. Net respiration and net dissolution are the dominant metabolic processes at both systems, with a narrow window of ~ 4 months under net calcification. The annual mean net ecosystem calcification (NEC) rates for La Parguera (−0.68 ± 0.91 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) and Cheeca Rocks (−0.48 ± 0.89 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) were on the lower end of typical NEC ranges determined for other reef areas using chemistry‐ and census‐based approaches. At Cheeca Ro...
CariCOOS has implemented a mirror run of the operational numerical weather prediction model emplo... more CariCOOS has implemented a mirror run of the operational numerical weather prediction model employed by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Juan (NWS WFO SJU), which is based on the WRF NMM model. The model configuration consists of a one-way nesting of two domains with a horizontal resolution of 6-km and 2-km, respectively. CariCOOS developed a single domain configuration of the WRF NMM model having a finer horizontal spatial resolution of 1-km. These models, in general, are discrete approximations in space and time of a continuous geophysical medium being simulated. The solutions to these models are not an exact representation of reality. The goal is to keep track of the relative ability of a model to make accurate predictions. A real-time validation MATLAB® script, for numerical weather prediction (NWP), was developed to assist CariCOOS end-users in comparing the forecasts to actual data. The validation of these models was conducted by comparing in-situ wind observations (Oi), of CariCOOS observing network, with model forecast (Mi). Time histories plots of in-situ and modeled wind speed and direction are compared in real time; while also solving statistical algorithms with various validation parameters as outputs. The statistical parameters included in the real-time validation tool are: (i) the Pearson's moment correlation coefficient (r), (ii) mean bias (MB), (iii) mean absolute gross error (MAGE), (iv) root mean square error (RMSE), (v) Willmott index of agreement (IOA) and (vi) hit rate (HR). This useful real-time validation tool allows NWS WFO SJU forecasters and CariCOOS researchers to measure the skill of the model and quantify the error to determine future needs for modeling enhancements. The real-time validation framework developed facilitates CariCOOS researchers to set any validation date range, which can vary from days to months. The validation skill appraisal revealed noticeable improvement in the forecasting for both wind speed and direction by the WRF-1KM when compared to the WRF-2KM and the NWS National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) operational product. Typically the most improved locations are noticed for weather stations in regions surrounded by complex topographic features,, particularly the lee side of islands. These findings suggest that the 1-km model resolves better the local orographic forcing generated by the fine-scale topography, typical of the coastal meteorology of Caribbean islands. The improvement in forecasting 10-m winds is due to a better depiction of the 1-km resolution model of complex terrain. These findings may lead to better understanding of local convection process, which dominates the diurnal and nocturnal wind cycles of sea and land breeze, respectively.
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