Abstract Introduction We are just beginning to be able to detect the policy implications and publ... more Abstract Introduction We are just beginning to be able to detect the policy implications and public health effects of changes in marijuana laws and consumption in the United States on motor vehicle related fatalities. Most studies to date use classical regression methods to study these and are thus susceptible to both model and parameter uncertainty. This study examines the associations between marijuana and motor vehicle fatality rates taking these two issues of uncertainty into account using Bayesian sturdy-values, i.e., s-values. Method This study utilizes a new balanced panel dataset across all states and Washington, D.C. for the period 2010 to 2016 in the context of linear models using Bayesian s-values. It addresses the association between marijuana and alcohol consumption along with the legal environment across states and through time on crash fatalities. Other important factors such as the distractive influence of cell phones are studied. The s-value approach considers a vast number of model specifications and provides robust policy guidelines. Results A strong association between marijuana and alcohol use on motor vehicle crash rates is found. The statistical results are both substantial and robust, i.e., non-fragile. Other important variables include cell phone use, seat belt use, speed limit laws, and fleet modernization. Conclusion Our results have found strong evidence of a life-taking relationship between marijuana use and vehicle crashes. This suggests that policy makers recognize that legislation liberalizing marijuana use may have tragic ramifications regarding motor vehicle fatalities.
This paper examines the determinants of motorcycle fatality rates using panel data and classical ... more This paper examines the determinants of motorcycle fatality rates using panel data and classical and Bayesian statistical methods. It focuses on five variables in particular: universal helmet laws, partial helmet laws, cell phone use, suicidal propensities, and beer consumption. Universal helmet laws are found to be favored over partial helmet laws to reduce motorcycle fatality rates while cell phone use is found to be a significant contributor to motorcycle fatalities as is alcohol consumption. Suicidal propensities are also shown to contribute to these accidents.
Transportation Policy and Economic Regulation, 2018
Abstract Motor vehicle crashes continue to result in a large number of fatalities each year and r... more Abstract Motor vehicle crashes continue to result in a large number of fatalities each year and represent the leading cause of death for young persons. This study is the first to examine specifically the effects of a set of focus variables thought to be major contributors to motor vehicle fatalities including distractions caused by, for example, cell phones, suicidal propensities among others using a newly developed Bayesian technique designed to measure the \sturdiness of the results. The analysis is conducted using a rich panel data set for the period 1980–2010 by the State and the District of Columbia which includes motor vehicle, economic, and driver-related variables. As mentioned, the analysis makes use of a new Bayesian statistic developed by Leamer, that is, S-values. This statistic summarizes both estimation uncertainty and model ambiguity by considering millions of potential models of motor vehicle fatalities. Once the major factors of motor vehicle fatalities are unambiguously determined and their influences measured, the study considers the ameliorating potential of driverless cars on such fatalities as well as their costs to society. In particular, the ability of driverless cars with, for example, their self-braking capacity, to reduce the number of crashes, and their associated fatalities and injuries in a significant manner is examined. In addition, they may offer individuals the ability to use cell phones for calls and texting while not enhancing risks to vehicle occupants and pedestrians. Obviously, they may also serve in place of a designated driver should alcohol use be an issue. However, the ability of driverless vehicles to provide safe transportation is not without costs. These include developing and maintaining reliable computer systems and sensors along with back-up systems while addressing legal and possible environmental issues. We conclude that driverless cars offer the potential to ameliorate motor vehicle fatalities due to distractions, such as with the use of cell phones, alcohol use, and suicidal propensities. In addition, modernization of the vehicle fleet is expected to reduce motor vehicle fatalities since newer vehicles are expected to incorporate technologies which may be life saving.
Henry Brady Class of 1941 Monroe Deutsch Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the ... more Henry Brady Class of 1941 Monroe Deutsch Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley, with appointments in the Department of Political Science and the Goldman School of Public Policy. Faculty director of Berkeley’s Survey Research Center and the University of California Data Archive and Technical Assistance (UC DATA) program. Dr. Brady has written extensively on research methods and statistical techniques for analyzing social science data as well as on social welfare policy, political participation, and voting systems.
Motorcycle related fatalities continue to be a major concern for public health officials, economi... more Motorcycle related fatalities continue to be a major concern for public health officials, economists, and policy makers interested in such matters. In 2006, 3% of all motor vehicles registered in the United States were 2-3 wheelers (motorcycle type vehicles), while riders of these vehicles accounted for 11% of vehicle related deaths. Such a disproportionate number of fatalities associated with motorcycles is certainly grounds for concern.Most studies of motorcycle fatalities attribute deaths to the avoidance of wearing helmets and the lack of helmet laws, speed, and alcohol usage. This study makes use of a rich panel data set for the period 1980 to 2010 by state and the District of Columbia to examine these factors and others. It is the first study to differentiate between the effects of universal and partial helmet laws on motorcycle fatalities. It also accounts for the effects of cell phone use, alcohol consumption, and suicidal propensities on these crashes after adjusting for a ...
ABSTRACT Little Cottonwood Canyon Highway is a dead-end, two lane road leading to Utah's ... more ABSTRACT Little Cottonwood Canyon Highway is a dead-end, two lane road leading to Utah's Alta and Snowbird ski resorts. It is the only road access to these resorts and is heavily traveled during the ski season. Fifty-seven percent of this road has been calculated to fall within known avalanche paths and the road is ranked among the most dangerous highways in the world relative to avalanche hazard. Professional avalanche forecasters monitor this road throughout the ski season in order to make road closure decisions in the face of avalanche danger. Forecasters at the Utah Department of Transportation avalanche guard station at Alta have maintained an extensive daily winter database on explanatory variables relating to avalanche prediction. Whether or not an avalanche crosses the road is modeled in this paper via Bayesian additive tree methods. Utilizing daily winter data from 1995 to 2010, results show that using Bayesian tree analysis outperforms traditional statistical methods in terms of realized misclassification costs that take into consideration asymmetric losses arising from two types of errors. Closing the road when an avalanche does not occur is an error harmful to resort owners and not closing the road when one does may result in injury or death.
I. Introduction The financial crisis in Southeast Asia has gained widespread attention.1 In parti... more I. Introduction The financial crisis in Southeast Asia has gained widespread attention.1 In particular, the financial problems in Thailand since early February 1997 have been a major focus of this attention. Even enthusiasts for the McKinnon-Shaw arguments for financial ...
Abstract Introduction We are just beginning to be able to detect the policy implications and publ... more Abstract Introduction We are just beginning to be able to detect the policy implications and public health effects of changes in marijuana laws and consumption in the United States on motor vehicle related fatalities. Most studies to date use classical regression methods to study these and are thus susceptible to both model and parameter uncertainty. This study examines the associations between marijuana and motor vehicle fatality rates taking these two issues of uncertainty into account using Bayesian sturdy-values, i.e., s-values. Method This study utilizes a new balanced panel dataset across all states and Washington, D.C. for the period 2010 to 2016 in the context of linear models using Bayesian s-values. It addresses the association between marijuana and alcohol consumption along with the legal environment across states and through time on crash fatalities. Other important factors such as the distractive influence of cell phones are studied. The s-value approach considers a vast number of model specifications and provides robust policy guidelines. Results A strong association between marijuana and alcohol use on motor vehicle crash rates is found. The statistical results are both substantial and robust, i.e., non-fragile. Other important variables include cell phone use, seat belt use, speed limit laws, and fleet modernization. Conclusion Our results have found strong evidence of a life-taking relationship between marijuana use and vehicle crashes. This suggests that policy makers recognize that legislation liberalizing marijuana use may have tragic ramifications regarding motor vehicle fatalities.
This paper examines the determinants of motorcycle fatality rates using panel data and classical ... more This paper examines the determinants of motorcycle fatality rates using panel data and classical and Bayesian statistical methods. It focuses on five variables in particular: universal helmet laws, partial helmet laws, cell phone use, suicidal propensities, and beer consumption. Universal helmet laws are found to be favored over partial helmet laws to reduce motorcycle fatality rates while cell phone use is found to be a significant contributor to motorcycle fatalities as is alcohol consumption. Suicidal propensities are also shown to contribute to these accidents.
Transportation Policy and Economic Regulation, 2018
Abstract Motor vehicle crashes continue to result in a large number of fatalities each year and r... more Abstract Motor vehicle crashes continue to result in a large number of fatalities each year and represent the leading cause of death for young persons. This study is the first to examine specifically the effects of a set of focus variables thought to be major contributors to motor vehicle fatalities including distractions caused by, for example, cell phones, suicidal propensities among others using a newly developed Bayesian technique designed to measure the \sturdiness of the results. The analysis is conducted using a rich panel data set for the period 1980–2010 by the State and the District of Columbia which includes motor vehicle, economic, and driver-related variables. As mentioned, the analysis makes use of a new Bayesian statistic developed by Leamer, that is, S-values. This statistic summarizes both estimation uncertainty and model ambiguity by considering millions of potential models of motor vehicle fatalities. Once the major factors of motor vehicle fatalities are unambiguously determined and their influences measured, the study considers the ameliorating potential of driverless cars on such fatalities as well as their costs to society. In particular, the ability of driverless cars with, for example, their self-braking capacity, to reduce the number of crashes, and their associated fatalities and injuries in a significant manner is examined. In addition, they may offer individuals the ability to use cell phones for calls and texting while not enhancing risks to vehicle occupants and pedestrians. Obviously, they may also serve in place of a designated driver should alcohol use be an issue. However, the ability of driverless vehicles to provide safe transportation is not without costs. These include developing and maintaining reliable computer systems and sensors along with back-up systems while addressing legal and possible environmental issues. We conclude that driverless cars offer the potential to ameliorate motor vehicle fatalities due to distractions, such as with the use of cell phones, alcohol use, and suicidal propensities. In addition, modernization of the vehicle fleet is expected to reduce motor vehicle fatalities since newer vehicles are expected to incorporate technologies which may be life saving.
Henry Brady Class of 1941 Monroe Deutsch Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the ... more Henry Brady Class of 1941 Monroe Deutsch Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley, with appointments in the Department of Political Science and the Goldman School of Public Policy. Faculty director of Berkeley’s Survey Research Center and the University of California Data Archive and Technical Assistance (UC DATA) program. Dr. Brady has written extensively on research methods and statistical techniques for analyzing social science data as well as on social welfare policy, political participation, and voting systems.
Motorcycle related fatalities continue to be a major concern for public health officials, economi... more Motorcycle related fatalities continue to be a major concern for public health officials, economists, and policy makers interested in such matters. In 2006, 3% of all motor vehicles registered in the United States were 2-3 wheelers (motorcycle type vehicles), while riders of these vehicles accounted for 11% of vehicle related deaths. Such a disproportionate number of fatalities associated with motorcycles is certainly grounds for concern.Most studies of motorcycle fatalities attribute deaths to the avoidance of wearing helmets and the lack of helmet laws, speed, and alcohol usage. This study makes use of a rich panel data set for the period 1980 to 2010 by state and the District of Columbia to examine these factors and others. It is the first study to differentiate between the effects of universal and partial helmet laws on motorcycle fatalities. It also accounts for the effects of cell phone use, alcohol consumption, and suicidal propensities on these crashes after adjusting for a ...
ABSTRACT Little Cottonwood Canyon Highway is a dead-end, two lane road leading to Utah's ... more ABSTRACT Little Cottonwood Canyon Highway is a dead-end, two lane road leading to Utah's Alta and Snowbird ski resorts. It is the only road access to these resorts and is heavily traveled during the ski season. Fifty-seven percent of this road has been calculated to fall within known avalanche paths and the road is ranked among the most dangerous highways in the world relative to avalanche hazard. Professional avalanche forecasters monitor this road throughout the ski season in order to make road closure decisions in the face of avalanche danger. Forecasters at the Utah Department of Transportation avalanche guard station at Alta have maintained an extensive daily winter database on explanatory variables relating to avalanche prediction. Whether or not an avalanche crosses the road is modeled in this paper via Bayesian additive tree methods. Utilizing daily winter data from 1995 to 2010, results show that using Bayesian tree analysis outperforms traditional statistical methods in terms of realized misclassification costs that take into consideration asymmetric losses arising from two types of errors. Closing the road when an avalanche does not occur is an error harmful to resort owners and not closing the road when one does may result in injury or death.
I. Introduction The financial crisis in Southeast Asia has gained widespread attention.1 In parti... more I. Introduction The financial crisis in Southeast Asia has gained widespread attention.1 In particular, the financial problems in Thailand since early February 1997 have been a major focus of this attention. Even enthusiasts for the McKinnon-Shaw arguments for financial ...
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