Background: We studied Riveaux Road Fire, which was ignited by multiple lightning strikes in Janu... more Background: We studied Riveaux Road Fire, which was ignited by multiple lightning strikes in January 2019 and burnt more than 637.19 km2 in southern Tasmania, Australia. Aims: We focused on fire weather, such as identification of dynamic wind and vegetation type, in a valley of the study area. Methods: We employed two methods: numerical weather model vertical sounding (NWMVS) and the use of a fire simulator, to quantify and examine the contribution of dynamic winds to fire behaviour. The NWMVSs allow rapid diagnosis of changes in wind, temperature, dew point temperature and cloud coverage. Prototype 2 is a fire simulator based on the specification of Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS). Key results: We found fires to be guided by terrain-forced channelling primarily and by downslope wind conditionally in the valleys. In addition, the fire intensity periodically changed with the magnitude of surface wind, in buttongrass moorland, in which the fire often smoulders, during the fire period according to the satellite image. Conclusions and Implications: Therefore, there should be caution for not only terrain and dynamic wind but also vegetation type during fire spread in rugged terrain.
Although mountain areas account for approximately one fifth of the terrestrial surface, there has... more Although mountain areas account for approximately one fifth of the terrestrial surface, there has been less research focused on fire in these areas compared to lowlands. Mountain fires have distinct behavior due to dynamic winds interacting with the terrain, which can influence the fireline intensity and propagation. For the sake of fire safety of fire crews, it is essential to know how difficult to control the fire is in the mountain regions, with fireline intensity providing a useful indicator of risk and suppressibility. We studied one of the major disasters, wildfire, in Australia in such a highland by using the Great Pine Tier Fire, which occurred 15th January in 2019, ending up burning approximately 511.86km2. Weather and fire intensity at pseudo weather stations located at key points of fire progression were analyzed by wind vector maps and numerical weather model vertical sounding (NWMVS). Fire propagation was then simulated in Prototype 2, a fire simulator capable of detecting the potential for lateral fire channeling (LFC), and simulating fireline intensity using Australian vegetation sub-models. We found that the synoptic wind appeared to be modified by the interaction with the terrain in windward and the fire intensified the most in its leeward. In practice, the fire moved out of the valley axis and up its sidehill by following the wind which had been modified by local vertex of the curved valley axis before reaching this location.
Extreme fire weather and fire behavior occurred during the New Year’s Eve period 30–31 December 2... more Extreme fire weather and fire behavior occurred during the New Year’s Eve period 30–31 December 2019 in southeast New South Wales, Australia. Fire progressed rapidly during the late evening and early morning periods, and significant extreme pyrocumulonimbus behavior developed, sometimes repeatedly in the same area. This occurred within a broader context of an unprecedented fire season in eastern Australia. Several aspects of the synoptic and mesoscale meteorology are examined, to identify contributions to fire behavior during this period. The passage of a cold front through the region was a key factor in the event, but other processes contributed to the severity of fire weather. Additional important features during this period included the movement of a negatively tilted upper-tropospheric trough, the interaction of the front with topography, and the occurrence of low-level overnight jets and of horizontal boundary layer rolls in the vicinity of the fireground. Significance Statemen...
Flash flooding is a significant risk to public safety in Australia. It typically occurs over sma... more Flash flooding is a significant risk to public safety in Australia. It typically occurs over small spatial scales within 6 hours of the onset of rainfall and is generally difficult to predict. This is largely because of uncertainties in forecasting the intensity and spatio-temporal distribution of heavy rainfall and the landscape response. This means that accurate forecasts of the timing and location of flash flooding are often not possible with certainty ahead of an event. These issues around the current predictive capability exacerbate existing communication challenges. Current approaches to flash flooding prediction, public information and warning are informed by evidence but are not yet sufficiently effective. A recent inquiry into severe rainfall and flooding events in Eastern Australia in 2022 highlighted the need for further research to improve predictions of extreme rainfall and associated impacts. Communicating the uncertainty in forecasts and predictions to enable emergen...
Mountain fire can become more complex than fires at lower elevation due to the complex interactio... more Mountain fire can become more complex than fires at lower elevation due to the complex interaction of fire, topography, and weather. The Gell River Fire in Tasmania, Australia occurred in rugged terrain where there are abundant fire sensitive vegetation communities, as well as the presence of infrastructure including high-voltage transmission lines. The fire began at the end of December 2018 and lasted a few months, with a final burnt area of approximately 350km2 despite significant fire suppression effort. The fire was investigated by employing wind vector maps, numerical weather model vertical sounding charts (NWMVS) and Prototype 2, which is an integrated fire simulator and can detect lateral fire channeling (LFC). Our analysis of the fire found its spread was likely to be introduced into a valley by forced channeling (FC), which is modified synoptic wind, and showed rapid spread in the valley. The simulated fire also showed wider spread than the observed data in the valley, with...
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2019
Wildfire, a natural part of many ecosystems, has also resulted in significant disasters impacting... more Wildfire, a natural part of many ecosystems, has also resulted in significant disasters impacting ecology and human life in Australia. This study proposes a prototype of fire propagation prediction as an extension of preceding research; this system is called “Cloud computing based bushfire prediction”, the computational performance of which is expected to be about twice that of the traditional client-server (CS) model. As the first step in the modelling approach, this prototype focuses on the prediction of fire propagation. The direction of fire is limited in regular grid approaches, such as cellular automata, due to the shape of the uniformed grid, while irregular grids are freed from this constraint. In this prototype, fire propagation is computed from a centroid regardless of grid shape to remove the above constraint. Additionally, the prototype employs existing fire indices, including the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI), Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and Button Grass Moorla...
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2019
Epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETA) is an emerging public health threat in Australia, highlighted ... more Epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETA) is an emerging public health threat in Australia, highlighted by the 2016 event in Melbourne, Victoria, that overwhelmed health services and caused loss of life. However, there is limited understanding of the regional variations in risk. We evaluated the public health risk of ETA in the nearby state of Tasmania by quantifying the frequency of potential ETA episodes and applying a standardized natural disaster risk assessment framework. Using a case–control approach, we analyzed emergency presentations in Tasmania’s public hospitals from 2002 to 2017. Cases were defined as days when asthma presentations exceeded four standard deviations from the mean, and controls as days when asthma presentations were less than one standard deviation from the mean. Four controls were randomly selected for each case. Independently, a meteorologist identified the dates of potential high-risk thunderstorm events. No case days coincided with thunderstorms during the st...
Background: We studied Riveaux Road Fire, which was ignited by multiple lightning strikes in Janu... more Background: We studied Riveaux Road Fire, which was ignited by multiple lightning strikes in January 2019 and burnt more than 637.19 km2 in southern Tasmania, Australia. Aims: We focused on fire weather, such as identification of dynamic wind and vegetation type, in a valley of the study area. Methods: We employed two methods: numerical weather model vertical sounding (NWMVS) and the use of a fire simulator, to quantify and examine the contribution of dynamic winds to fire behaviour. The NWMVSs allow rapid diagnosis of changes in wind, temperature, dew point temperature and cloud coverage. Prototype 2 is a fire simulator based on the specification of Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS). Key results: We found fires to be guided by terrain-forced channelling primarily and by downslope wind conditionally in the valleys. In addition, the fire intensity periodically changed with the magnitude of surface wind, in buttongrass moorland, in which the fire often smoulders, during the fire period according to the satellite image. Conclusions and Implications: Therefore, there should be caution for not only terrain and dynamic wind but also vegetation type during fire spread in rugged terrain.
Although mountain areas account for approximately one fifth of the terrestrial surface, there has... more Although mountain areas account for approximately one fifth of the terrestrial surface, there has been less research focused on fire in these areas compared to lowlands. Mountain fires have distinct behavior due to dynamic winds interacting with the terrain, which can influence the fireline intensity and propagation. For the sake of fire safety of fire crews, it is essential to know how difficult to control the fire is in the mountain regions, with fireline intensity providing a useful indicator of risk and suppressibility. We studied one of the major disasters, wildfire, in Australia in such a highland by using the Great Pine Tier Fire, which occurred 15th January in 2019, ending up burning approximately 511.86km2. Weather and fire intensity at pseudo weather stations located at key points of fire progression were analyzed by wind vector maps and numerical weather model vertical sounding (NWMVS). Fire propagation was then simulated in Prototype 2, a fire simulator capable of detecting the potential for lateral fire channeling (LFC), and simulating fireline intensity using Australian vegetation sub-models. We found that the synoptic wind appeared to be modified by the interaction with the terrain in windward and the fire intensified the most in its leeward. In practice, the fire moved out of the valley axis and up its sidehill by following the wind which had been modified by local vertex of the curved valley axis before reaching this location.
Extreme fire weather and fire behavior occurred during the New Year’s Eve period 30–31 December 2... more Extreme fire weather and fire behavior occurred during the New Year’s Eve period 30–31 December 2019 in southeast New South Wales, Australia. Fire progressed rapidly during the late evening and early morning periods, and significant extreme pyrocumulonimbus behavior developed, sometimes repeatedly in the same area. This occurred within a broader context of an unprecedented fire season in eastern Australia. Several aspects of the synoptic and mesoscale meteorology are examined, to identify contributions to fire behavior during this period. The passage of a cold front through the region was a key factor in the event, but other processes contributed to the severity of fire weather. Additional important features during this period included the movement of a negatively tilted upper-tropospheric trough, the interaction of the front with topography, and the occurrence of low-level overnight jets and of horizontal boundary layer rolls in the vicinity of the fireground. Significance Statemen...
Flash flooding is a significant risk to public safety in Australia. It typically occurs over sma... more Flash flooding is a significant risk to public safety in Australia. It typically occurs over small spatial scales within 6 hours of the onset of rainfall and is generally difficult to predict. This is largely because of uncertainties in forecasting the intensity and spatio-temporal distribution of heavy rainfall and the landscape response. This means that accurate forecasts of the timing and location of flash flooding are often not possible with certainty ahead of an event. These issues around the current predictive capability exacerbate existing communication challenges. Current approaches to flash flooding prediction, public information and warning are informed by evidence but are not yet sufficiently effective. A recent inquiry into severe rainfall and flooding events in Eastern Australia in 2022 highlighted the need for further research to improve predictions of extreme rainfall and associated impacts. Communicating the uncertainty in forecasts and predictions to enable emergen...
Mountain fire can become more complex than fires at lower elevation due to the complex interactio... more Mountain fire can become more complex than fires at lower elevation due to the complex interaction of fire, topography, and weather. The Gell River Fire in Tasmania, Australia occurred in rugged terrain where there are abundant fire sensitive vegetation communities, as well as the presence of infrastructure including high-voltage transmission lines. The fire began at the end of December 2018 and lasted a few months, with a final burnt area of approximately 350km2 despite significant fire suppression effort. The fire was investigated by employing wind vector maps, numerical weather model vertical sounding charts (NWMVS) and Prototype 2, which is an integrated fire simulator and can detect lateral fire channeling (LFC). Our analysis of the fire found its spread was likely to be introduced into a valley by forced channeling (FC), which is modified synoptic wind, and showed rapid spread in the valley. The simulated fire also showed wider spread than the observed data in the valley, with...
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2019
Wildfire, a natural part of many ecosystems, has also resulted in significant disasters impacting... more Wildfire, a natural part of many ecosystems, has also resulted in significant disasters impacting ecology and human life in Australia. This study proposes a prototype of fire propagation prediction as an extension of preceding research; this system is called “Cloud computing based bushfire prediction”, the computational performance of which is expected to be about twice that of the traditional client-server (CS) model. As the first step in the modelling approach, this prototype focuses on the prediction of fire propagation. The direction of fire is limited in regular grid approaches, such as cellular automata, due to the shape of the uniformed grid, while irregular grids are freed from this constraint. In this prototype, fire propagation is computed from a centroid regardless of grid shape to remove the above constraint. Additionally, the prototype employs existing fire indices, including the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI), Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and Button Grass Moorla...
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2019
Epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETA) is an emerging public health threat in Australia, highlighted ... more Epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETA) is an emerging public health threat in Australia, highlighted by the 2016 event in Melbourne, Victoria, that overwhelmed health services and caused loss of life. However, there is limited understanding of the regional variations in risk. We evaluated the public health risk of ETA in the nearby state of Tasmania by quantifying the frequency of potential ETA episodes and applying a standardized natural disaster risk assessment framework. Using a case–control approach, we analyzed emergency presentations in Tasmania’s public hospitals from 2002 to 2017. Cases were defined as days when asthma presentations exceeded four standard deviations from the mean, and controls as days when asthma presentations were less than one standard deviation from the mean. Four controls were randomly selected for each case. Independently, a meteorologist identified the dates of potential high-risk thunderstorm events. No case days coincided with thunderstorms during the st...
Uploads
Papers by Paul Fox-Hughes