This paper examines empirically the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s policy under different... more This paper examines empirically the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s policy under different levels of transparency by using a dynamic and continuous market-based index proposed by Kia (2011) on inflation volatility and output volatility. In theory, the more transparent the monetary policy, the less volatile the money market will be with fewer disturbances and thus the more stable will be the economy. First, a bivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model is estimated for inflation and output variables in the US economy in order to produce conditional variances and covariance over the period October 1982 to December 2011. Second, by incorporating conditional variances and transparency in a VAR model, impulse response functions reveal that after a positive shock in the Federal Reserve’s transparency (i.e. market participants consider the Federal Reserve’s actions to be more transparent), there is a statistically significant decrease in both inflation volatility and output volatility. Our results reveal the dynamic and crucial role that a central bank’s transparency plays in retaining economic stability and assuring the forecasts concerning inflation and economic growth made by the economic units.
This paper, tests the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a series ... more This paper, tests the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a series of European countries since the Euro currency circulation. By disaggregating bank loans to households for consumer, housing and other purposes over the period 2003:Q1 to 2012:Q4, we try to shed light to any hidden dynamics by aggregate data. An unrestricted VAR model and impulse response analysis provide empirical evidence of an active bank lending channel working via housing loans for the majority of countries studied (Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Sweden and UK). Additionally, there is evidence of a transmission mechanism proceed through consumer credit in Austria, Belgium and Netherlands. Moreover our results reveal that monetary transmission to housing loans proceeds quickly in Germany, Spain, Sweden and UK compared to the others. However in Belgium, Germany and UK, consumer credits reduction also amplifies the initial shock on GDP and on inflation produced by a tightening ...
This paper examines empirically the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s policy under different... more This paper examines empirically the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s policy under different levels of transparency by using a dynamic and continuous market-based index proposed by Kia (2011) on inflation volatility and output volatility. In theory, the more transparent the monetary policy, the less volatile the money market will be with fewer disturbances and thus the more stable will be the economy. First, a bivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model is estimated for inflation and output variables in the US economy in order to produce conditional variances and covariance over the period October 1982 to December 2011. Second, by incorporating conditional variances and transparency in a VAR model, impulse response functions reveal that after a positive shock in the Federal Reserve’s transparency (i.e. market participants consider the Federal Reserve’s actions to be more transparent), there is a statistically significant decrease in both inflation volatility and output volatility. Our results reveal the dynamic and crucial role that a central bank’s transparency plays in retaining economic stability and assuring the forecasts concerning inflation and economic growth made by the economic units.
This paper, tests the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a series ... more This paper, tests the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a series of European countries since the Euro currency circulation. By disaggregating bank loans to households for consumer, housing and other purposes over the period 2003:Q1 to 2012:Q4, we try to shed light to any hidden dynamics by aggregate data. An unrestricted VAR model and impulse response analysis provide empirical evidence of an active bank lending channel working via housing loans for the majority of countries studied (Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Sweden and UK). Additionally, there is evidence of a transmission mechanism proceed through consumer credit in Austria, Belgium and Netherlands. Moreover our results reveal that monetary transmission to housing loans proceeds quickly in Germany, Spain, Sweden and UK compared to the others. However in Belgium, Germany and UK, consumer credits reduction also amplifies the initial shock on GDP and on inflation produced by a tightening monetary policy. Finally, banks' lending behaviour varies significantly according to the purposes of household loans. In Belgium, Sweden and UK, housing loans reductions coexist with increase of loans for consumption and other reasons, implying that the former is driven by supply forces while the latter by demand forces. JEL classification numbers: E40 E52 G21
Using daily stock and bond returns data from four European countries—France, Germany, Spain, and ... more Using daily stock and bond returns data from four European countries—France, Germany, Spain, and Great Britain—that have been the victims of significant terrorist activity, this study addresses the issue of whether transnational and/or domestic terrorist attacks have affected in any significant manner the time-varying stock–bond covariance, their returns, and their variances. Stock and bond markets can be influenced and determined not only by the usual array of macroeconomic factors but also by security shocks, such as a terrorist incident, that have the potential to affect investors’ sentiment and portfolio allocation decisions. The issue at hand is addressed using a VAR(p)-GARCH(1,1)-in-mean model, and the results reported herein indicate that terrorist attacks trigger a flight-to-safety effect primarily in France and Germany and to a smaller degree in Great Britain and Spain.
This paper examines empirically the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s policy under different... more This paper examines empirically the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s policy under different levels of transparency by using a dynamic and continuous market-based index proposed by Kia (2011) on inflation volatility and output volatility. In theory, the more transparent the monetary policy, the less volatile the money market will be with fewer disturbances and thus the more stable will be the economy. First, a bivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model is estimated for inflation and output variables in the US economy in order to produce conditional variances and covariance over the period October 1982 to December 2011. Second, by incorporating conditional variances and transparency in a VAR model, impulse response functions reveal that after a positive shock in the Federal Reserve’s transparency (i.e. market participants consider the Federal Reserve’s actions to be more transparent), there is a statistically significant decrease in both inflation volatility and output volatility. Our results reveal the dynamic and crucial role that a central bank’s transparency plays in retaining economic stability and assuring the forecasts concerning inflation and economic growth made by the economic units.
This paper, tests the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a series ... more This paper, tests the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a series of European countries since the Euro currency circulation. By disaggregating bank loans to households for consumer, housing and other purposes over the period 2003:Q1 to 2012:Q4, we try to shed light to any hidden dynamics by aggregate data. An unrestricted VAR model and impulse response analysis provide empirical evidence of an active bank lending channel working via housing loans for the majority of countries studied (Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Sweden and UK). Additionally, there is evidence of a transmission mechanism proceed through consumer credit in Austria, Belgium and Netherlands. Moreover our results reveal that monetary transmission to housing loans proceeds quickly in Germany, Spain, Sweden and UK compared to the others. However in Belgium, Germany and UK, consumer credits reduction also amplifies the initial shock on GDP and on inflation produced by a tightening ...
This paper examines empirically the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s policy under different... more This paper examines empirically the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s policy under different levels of transparency by using a dynamic and continuous market-based index proposed by Kia (2011) on inflation volatility and output volatility. In theory, the more transparent the monetary policy, the less volatile the money market will be with fewer disturbances and thus the more stable will be the economy. First, a bivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model is estimated for inflation and output variables in the US economy in order to produce conditional variances and covariance over the period October 1982 to December 2011. Second, by incorporating conditional variances and transparency in a VAR model, impulse response functions reveal that after a positive shock in the Federal Reserve’s transparency (i.e. market participants consider the Federal Reserve’s actions to be more transparent), there is a statistically significant decrease in both inflation volatility and output volatility. Our results reveal the dynamic and crucial role that a central bank’s transparency plays in retaining economic stability and assuring the forecasts concerning inflation and economic growth made by the economic units.
This paper, tests the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a series ... more This paper, tests the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a series of European countries since the Euro currency circulation. By disaggregating bank loans to households for consumer, housing and other purposes over the period 2003:Q1 to 2012:Q4, we try to shed light to any hidden dynamics by aggregate data. An unrestricted VAR model and impulse response analysis provide empirical evidence of an active bank lending channel working via housing loans for the majority of countries studied (Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Sweden and UK). Additionally, there is evidence of a transmission mechanism proceed through consumer credit in Austria, Belgium and Netherlands. Moreover our results reveal that monetary transmission to housing loans proceeds quickly in Germany, Spain, Sweden and UK compared to the others. However in Belgium, Germany and UK, consumer credits reduction also amplifies the initial shock on GDP and on inflation produced by a tightening monetary policy. Finally, banks' lending behaviour varies significantly according to the purposes of household loans. In Belgium, Sweden and UK, housing loans reductions coexist with increase of loans for consumption and other reasons, implying that the former is driven by supply forces while the latter by demand forces. JEL classification numbers: E40 E52 G21
Using daily stock and bond returns data from four European countries—France, Germany, Spain, and ... more Using daily stock and bond returns data from four European countries—France, Germany, Spain, and Great Britain—that have been the victims of significant terrorist activity, this study addresses the issue of whether transnational and/or domestic terrorist attacks have affected in any significant manner the time-varying stock–bond covariance, their returns, and their variances. Stock and bond markets can be influenced and determined not only by the usual array of macroeconomic factors but also by security shocks, such as a terrorist incident, that have the potential to affect investors’ sentiment and portfolio allocation decisions. The issue at hand is addressed using a VAR(p)-GARCH(1,1)-in-mean model, and the results reported herein indicate that terrorist attacks trigger a flight-to-safety effect primarily in France and Germany and to a smaller degree in Great Britain and Spain.
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