Julius Agbor is an example of Africans who have surmounted the difficult challenges of being born and raised by peasant parents. I have experienced poverty as a kid so when I see young people who are disadvantaged in life I realize that I could have been one of them, he notes. Inevitably, Julius's family background oriented his research towards understanding the process by which some individuals as well as nations grow richer than others. He is particularly interested in the interplay between human capital, institutions and macroeconomic policy in the economic growth of nations, particularly, those in sub-Saharan Africa. Intrigued by the relatively poor economic performance of sub-Saharan African countries with seemingly higher human capital endowments, Julius ponders whether human capital formation can deliver economic prosperity to Africans without the accompanying legal, physical and institutional infrastructure. This question, he explains, quickly leads to many more. “Why are human capital institutions growth-enhancing in some countries and growth-inhibiting in others? Is pervasive corruption evidence of weak institutions or depraved human capital? Can poor countries achieve competitiveness in international markets without attaining the requisite threshold levels of human capital in developed countries? The same question can be asked of political regime systems, rule of law, property rights, or economic freedoms. Julius goes to bed each day thinking about these questions.
Using the experience of Ghana during the twentieth century, this paper con…rms the hypothesis of ... more Using the experience of Ghana during the twentieth century, this paper con…rms the hypothesis of a necessary trade-obetween power losses by a coloniser and out- put maximisation contingent on human capital transfers from the coloniser to the indigenous population. In contrast with previous models, I no longer treat human capital as homogenous and technology now varies across the economy. De…ning a coloniser's objective in acquiring colonies as essentially that of maximising it's ex- traction of output, the model suggests that in order to raise output, the coloniser might have to selectively transfer human capital to the indigenous population, re- sulting in the creation of a new group of individuals called the 'elite'. The transfer of human capital to the elite inevitably results in increasing aspirations to power by the latter, which gradually erodes the power of the coloniser culminating in de- colonisation. The model reveals that the coloniser's objective func...
Nearly half a century after independence, the Cameroon economy has experienced little or no growt... more Nearly half a century after independence, the Cameroon economy has experienced little or no growth in per capita incomes in spite of the enormous natural and human potentials of the country and in spite of the huge packages of aid and subsequent debt relief received from the ...
This chapter evaluates the competitiveness of African economies. In contrast to the macroeconomic... more This chapter evaluates the competitiveness of African economies. In contrast to the macroeconomic perspective which focuses on the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate, the framework adopted in the chapter emphasizes the fundamental drivers of a country’s ability to maintain competitive advantage in international markets through high-value production and economies of scale while simultaneously raising the living standards of its citizens. The study compares a novel measure–the Trade Weighted Value added per capita–with the Real Effective Exchange Rate and demonstrates the merits of the former over the latter in evaluating the competitiveness of African economies.
This study evaluates the competitiveness of African countries. In contrast to the macroeconomic p... more This study evaluates the competitiveness of African countries. In contrast to the macroeconomic perspective which focuses on the behavior of the real exchange rate, the framework adopted in this study emphasizes the fundamental determinants of a country’s ability to maintain competitive advantage in international markets through high-value production and economies of scale while at the same time raising the standard of living of its citizens. The study reviews existing measures of competitiveness and in the empirical section analyzes the proposed measure – trade weighted relative GDP per capita. The empirical approach estimates OLS, fixed and random effects models explaining the dependent variable by a set of price and nonprice factors using a panel dataset of 40 African countries during 1980-2011. The results suggests that CFA franc zone countries aren’t necessarily less competitive than their subSaharan African peers and the factors that undermine competitiveness in the franc zone...
This paper investigates the effects of religion on a broad set of development outcomes in sub-Sah... more This paper investigates the effects of religion on a broad set of development outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa. We regroup these outcomes into three broad categories, namely, development process outcomes (growth, investment, conflict, and government quality), institutional outcomes (property rights and the rule of law) and social development outcomes (social and gender protection). Using two new measures of religion – religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) and religious polarization (RELPOL), alongside the traditional measure of religious diversity, our results suggest that broadly speaking, religion or religious diversity has no statistically significant impact on the institutional and social aspects of development in sub-Saharan Africa. However, our findings do suggest that religion has important effects on the development process through its effects on investment. The analysis suggests that African policy-makers need to pay attention to the changing religious dynamics and increasing...
This paper investigates the channels through which colonial origin a¤ects economic growth in sub-... more This paper investigates the channels through which colonial origin a¤ects economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Our ndings suggest that colonial origin matters for growth in SSA and its likely transmission mechanism is human capital. In particular, our results suggests that British former colonies have acquired their superior economic performance over their French counterparts mainly because the negative e¤ects of human capital growth on per capita GDP growth has been comparatively less severe in British former colonies. We do not nd statistical evidence in support of the market distortion, trade openness, geography and natural resources channels. However, some channels that are statistically insigni cant, notably, geography and natural resources, seem to be economically as important as the one that is statistically signi cant. The contribution of the study is in simultaneously exploring several feasible transmission channels between colonial origin and growth, which to the...
Page 1. The Economic Origins of Twentieth Century Decolonisation in West Africa 1 JA Agbor 2 , Wo... more Page 1. The Economic Origins of Twentieth Century Decolonisation in West Africa 1 JA Agbor 2 , Working Paper Number 177 ... Page 2. The Economic Origins of Twentieth Century Decolonisation in West Africa∗ JAAgbor March 16th, 2010 Abstract ...
This study investigates the impact of different dimensions of schooling education (primary, secon... more This study investigates the impact of different dimensions of schooling education (primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment) on the intensity of intra-state conflicts in Africa during 1989-2008. It uses fixed-effects regressions in a panel framework and annual data for 25 African countries. Parameter estimates provide clear evidence that schooling education (irrespective of the dimension considered) reduces the intensity of conflicts in Africa and the channels of transmission vary according to the education dimension considered. While primary schooling works mainly through urbanization; secondary and tertiary schooling reduces conflict through both the urbanization and youth bulge channels. These results suggest that in order to reduce conflict intensity in Africa, policy makers should facilitate the urbanization of a great number of African school leavers; while at the same time raising the number of African youths with secondary and tertiary education. However, the findings also suggest that secondary schooling potentially intensifies conflict intensity through the democratization channel implying that efforts to expand secondary education in Africa need to go in tandem with the rapid entrenchment of democratic institutions. Disaggregating the sample into “Conflict-prone” versus “less Conflict-prone” countries generally confirmed the core finding that all education dimensions are important in reducing conflict intensity in Africa but no insightful results were obtained on the likely channels of transmission. Further research should consider a more robust investigating of this issue while also differentiating the impacts of education dimensions on conflict in “high income” versus “low income” countries.
A total of 80 currency boards have come into existence at some point since the mid-19th century, ... more A total of 80 currency boards have come into existence at some point since the mid-19th century, but to date only about 15 of them still exist, among which is the CFA franc monetary zone. The future sustainability of the CFA franc zone, to which the CEMAC CFA franc belongs, is increasingly questioned in the light of increasing asymmetries in exposure to external shocks, differential speeds of adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks, differential impacts in economic fundamentals, and low levels of intra-regional trade and financial flows between CEMAC and WAEMU. For the CEMAC bloc of countries in particular, the future sustainability of the fixed exchange regime depends crucially on continued oil exports, which currently represent about 90percent of export revenues and 40 percent of GDP. Should oil reserves deplete in the near future or oil prices decline significantly, a substantial source of foreign reserves would be lost, thereby exposing the regime to collapse. Even without resource depletion, continued volatility in global financial markets is increasing the risks of collapse of the fixed exchange regime as oil and commodity price swings ignite currency speculation as well as render reserves much more volatile. Against this backdrop, the present study examines the stakes facing the CEMAC CFA franc, discusses the exit options from the currency board and makes recommendations towards a sustainable monetary policy framework for CEMAC countries going forward. The analysis points to the imperative of pursuing a full monetary union with a single CEMAC franc pegged to the U.S. dollar and further suggest that, like the experience of the eurozone, the CEMAC monetary arrangement can be best implemented only by complying with the principle of political union.
This paper investigates the effects of religion on a broad set of development outcomes in sub-Sah... more This paper investigates the effects of religion on a broad set of development outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa. We regroup these outcomes into three broad categories, namely, development process outcomes (growth, investment, conflict, and government quality), institutional outcomes (property rights and the rule of law) and social development outcomes (social and gender protection). Using two new measures of religion – religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) and religious polarization (RELPOL), alongside the traditional measure of religious diversity, our results suggest that broadly speaking, religion or religious diversity has no statistically significant impact on the institutional and social aspects of development in sub-Saharan Africa. However, our findings do suggest that religion has important effects on the development process through its effects on investment. The analysis suggests that African policy-makers need to pay attention to the changing religious dynamics and increasing religious polarization of African societies.
Differences in trust levels between countries explain the observed discrepancies in entrepreneuri... more Differences in trust levels between countries explain the observed discrepancies in entrepreneurial spirit amongst them. We test this hypothesis with a cross-section of 60 countries in 2010. Our findings suggest that about half of the variation in entrepreneurial spirit across countries in the world is driven by trust considerations. This result is robust to regional clustering, outliers and alternative conditioning variables. The findings of the study indicate that while formal incentives to nurture entrepreneurship must be maintained, policy makers should also seek to pay attention to the role of trust cultivated through informal networks.
Using the experience of Ghana during the twentieth century, this paper con…rms the hypothesis of ... more Using the experience of Ghana during the twentieth century, this paper con…rms the hypothesis of a necessary trade-obetween power losses by a coloniser and out- put maximisation contingent on human capital transfers from the coloniser to the indigenous population. In contrast with previous models, I no longer treat human capital as homogenous and technology now varies across the economy. De…ning a coloniser's objective in acquiring colonies as essentially that of maximising it's ex- traction of output, the model suggests that in order to raise output, the coloniser might have to selectively transfer human capital to the indigenous population, re- sulting in the creation of a new group of individuals called the 'elite'. The transfer of human capital to the elite inevitably results in increasing aspirations to power by the latter, which gradually erodes the power of the coloniser culminating in de- colonisation. The model reveals that the coloniser's objective func...
Nearly half a century after independence, the Cameroon economy has experienced little or no growt... more Nearly half a century after independence, the Cameroon economy has experienced little or no growth in per capita incomes in spite of the enormous natural and human potentials of the country and in spite of the huge packages of aid and subsequent debt relief received from the ...
This chapter evaluates the competitiveness of African economies. In contrast to the macroeconomic... more This chapter evaluates the competitiveness of African economies. In contrast to the macroeconomic perspective which focuses on the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate, the framework adopted in the chapter emphasizes the fundamental drivers of a country’s ability to maintain competitive advantage in international markets through high-value production and economies of scale while simultaneously raising the living standards of its citizens. The study compares a novel measure–the Trade Weighted Value added per capita–with the Real Effective Exchange Rate and demonstrates the merits of the former over the latter in evaluating the competitiveness of African economies.
This study evaluates the competitiveness of African countries. In contrast to the macroeconomic p... more This study evaluates the competitiveness of African countries. In contrast to the macroeconomic perspective which focuses on the behavior of the real exchange rate, the framework adopted in this study emphasizes the fundamental determinants of a country’s ability to maintain competitive advantage in international markets through high-value production and economies of scale while at the same time raising the standard of living of its citizens. The study reviews existing measures of competitiveness and in the empirical section analyzes the proposed measure – trade weighted relative GDP per capita. The empirical approach estimates OLS, fixed and random effects models explaining the dependent variable by a set of price and nonprice factors using a panel dataset of 40 African countries during 1980-2011. The results suggests that CFA franc zone countries aren’t necessarily less competitive than their subSaharan African peers and the factors that undermine competitiveness in the franc zone...
This paper investigates the effects of religion on a broad set of development outcomes in sub-Sah... more This paper investigates the effects of religion on a broad set of development outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa. We regroup these outcomes into three broad categories, namely, development process outcomes (growth, investment, conflict, and government quality), institutional outcomes (property rights and the rule of law) and social development outcomes (social and gender protection). Using two new measures of religion – religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) and religious polarization (RELPOL), alongside the traditional measure of religious diversity, our results suggest that broadly speaking, religion or religious diversity has no statistically significant impact on the institutional and social aspects of development in sub-Saharan Africa. However, our findings do suggest that religion has important effects on the development process through its effects on investment. The analysis suggests that African policy-makers need to pay attention to the changing religious dynamics and increasing...
This paper investigates the channels through which colonial origin a¤ects economic growth in sub-... more This paper investigates the channels through which colonial origin a¤ects economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Our ndings suggest that colonial origin matters for growth in SSA and its likely transmission mechanism is human capital. In particular, our results suggests that British former colonies have acquired their superior economic performance over their French counterparts mainly because the negative e¤ects of human capital growth on per capita GDP growth has been comparatively less severe in British former colonies. We do not nd statistical evidence in support of the market distortion, trade openness, geography and natural resources channels. However, some channels that are statistically insigni cant, notably, geography and natural resources, seem to be economically as important as the one that is statistically signi cant. The contribution of the study is in simultaneously exploring several feasible transmission channels between colonial origin and growth, which to the...
Page 1. The Economic Origins of Twentieth Century Decolonisation in West Africa 1 JA Agbor 2 , Wo... more Page 1. The Economic Origins of Twentieth Century Decolonisation in West Africa 1 JA Agbor 2 , Working Paper Number 177 ... Page 2. The Economic Origins of Twentieth Century Decolonisation in West Africa∗ JAAgbor March 16th, 2010 Abstract ...
This study investigates the impact of different dimensions of schooling education (primary, secon... more This study investigates the impact of different dimensions of schooling education (primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment) on the intensity of intra-state conflicts in Africa during 1989-2008. It uses fixed-effects regressions in a panel framework and annual data for 25 African countries. Parameter estimates provide clear evidence that schooling education (irrespective of the dimension considered) reduces the intensity of conflicts in Africa and the channels of transmission vary according to the education dimension considered. While primary schooling works mainly through urbanization; secondary and tertiary schooling reduces conflict through both the urbanization and youth bulge channels. These results suggest that in order to reduce conflict intensity in Africa, policy makers should facilitate the urbanization of a great number of African school leavers; while at the same time raising the number of African youths with secondary and tertiary education. However, the findings also suggest that secondary schooling potentially intensifies conflict intensity through the democratization channel implying that efforts to expand secondary education in Africa need to go in tandem with the rapid entrenchment of democratic institutions. Disaggregating the sample into “Conflict-prone” versus “less Conflict-prone” countries generally confirmed the core finding that all education dimensions are important in reducing conflict intensity in Africa but no insightful results were obtained on the likely channels of transmission. Further research should consider a more robust investigating of this issue while also differentiating the impacts of education dimensions on conflict in “high income” versus “low income” countries.
A total of 80 currency boards have come into existence at some point since the mid-19th century, ... more A total of 80 currency boards have come into existence at some point since the mid-19th century, but to date only about 15 of them still exist, among which is the CFA franc monetary zone. The future sustainability of the CFA franc zone, to which the CEMAC CFA franc belongs, is increasingly questioned in the light of increasing asymmetries in exposure to external shocks, differential speeds of adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks, differential impacts in economic fundamentals, and low levels of intra-regional trade and financial flows between CEMAC and WAEMU. For the CEMAC bloc of countries in particular, the future sustainability of the fixed exchange regime depends crucially on continued oil exports, which currently represent about 90percent of export revenues and 40 percent of GDP. Should oil reserves deplete in the near future or oil prices decline significantly, a substantial source of foreign reserves would be lost, thereby exposing the regime to collapse. Even without resource depletion, continued volatility in global financial markets is increasing the risks of collapse of the fixed exchange regime as oil and commodity price swings ignite currency speculation as well as render reserves much more volatile. Against this backdrop, the present study examines the stakes facing the CEMAC CFA franc, discusses the exit options from the currency board and makes recommendations towards a sustainable monetary policy framework for CEMAC countries going forward. The analysis points to the imperative of pursuing a full monetary union with a single CEMAC franc pegged to the U.S. dollar and further suggest that, like the experience of the eurozone, the CEMAC monetary arrangement can be best implemented only by complying with the principle of political union.
This paper investigates the effects of religion on a broad set of development outcomes in sub-Sah... more This paper investigates the effects of religion on a broad set of development outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa. We regroup these outcomes into three broad categories, namely, development process outcomes (growth, investment, conflict, and government quality), institutional outcomes (property rights and the rule of law) and social development outcomes (social and gender protection). Using two new measures of religion – religious fractionalization (RELFRAC) and religious polarization (RELPOL), alongside the traditional measure of religious diversity, our results suggest that broadly speaking, religion or religious diversity has no statistically significant impact on the institutional and social aspects of development in sub-Saharan Africa. However, our findings do suggest that religion has important effects on the development process through its effects on investment. The analysis suggests that African policy-makers need to pay attention to the changing religious dynamics and increasing religious polarization of African societies.
Differences in trust levels between countries explain the observed discrepancies in entrepreneuri... more Differences in trust levels between countries explain the observed discrepancies in entrepreneurial spirit amongst them. We test this hypothesis with a cross-section of 60 countries in 2010. Our findings suggest that about half of the variation in entrepreneurial spirit across countries in the world is driven by trust considerations. This result is robust to regional clustering, outliers and alternative conditioning variables. The findings of the study indicate that while formal incentives to nurture entrepreneurship must be maintained, policy makers should also seek to pay attention to the role of trust cultivated through informal networks.
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Papers by Julius A Agbor