Title: Can democratic reforms promote political activism? Evidence from the Great Reform Act of 1832 (with Gabriel Leon-Ablan)

Abstract: Activists play a key role in the process of democratic transition and consolidation.

How is their activism affected by democratic reforms? We study how local activism responded to

the changes in representation introduced by Britain’s Great Reform Act. This reform

removed all parliamentary representation from some areas; other areas gained

representation for the first time. We exploit exogenous variation in which areas lost

and gained representation and measure activism using the number of petitions each area

sent to parliament. We find that petitioning increased in areas that gained representation,

partly because of greater civil society mobilization. We also find that petitioning fell in

areas that lost representation. This shows that pro-democratic reforms can promote political

activism, while anti-democratic reforms can decrease it. In the case of Britain, there

could have been positive feedback between activism and reform, making democratization a

path-dependent process and the Great Reform Act its critical juncture.

Title: The Labor Market Returns to Delaying Pregnancy (with Y. Gallen, J. Joensen, and E. Johansen)

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Title: Strategic Information Disclosure to Classification Algorithms: An Experiment (with Aurelien Salas).

Abstract: We experimentally study how individuals strategically disclose multidimensional information to a Naive Bayes algorithm trained to guess their characteristics. Subjects' objective is to minimize the algorithm's accuracy in guessing a target characteristic. We vary what participants know about the algorithm's functioning and how obvious are the correlations between the target and other characteristics. Optimal disclosure strategies rely on subjects identifying whether the combination of their characteristics is common or not. Information about the algorithm functioning makes subjects identify correlations they otherwise do not see but also overthink. Overall, this information decreases the frequency of optimal disclosure strategies.

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Title: Bounding High Dimensional Comparative Statics

Abstract: A core purpose of economic modeling is to conduct comparative static analyses. Often one is interested in characterizing the comparative static in terms of the underlying structural parameters. Yet, except in highly-stylized models, the theoretically implied relationships are usually intractable, and empirically demanding, requiring complete identification of the model. I derive novel, sharp bounds on comparative statics that are analytically simpler and are enumerated under partial identification of the model. The model can be of arbitrary dimensionality; I require only that the Jacobian is diagonally dominant - intuitively, there is limited feedback in the model. I show that the theory can be applied in canonical models across many fields in economics. I demonstrate their use by bounding the gains from trade over the past 800 years in the UK, despite there not existing bilateral trade data for this period.

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Title: Self-Control and Attending Class

Title: Parenting styles with externalities

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Title: "Suez".

Abstract: For all its importance, we lack a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the Suez Canal’s opening in 1869. We find that it led to a 72% relative increase in bilateral exports for affected country pairs, potentially suggesting a 12% permanent increase in world trade. We also consider the composition of trade, finding that Suez led to large, concentrated changes in export shares and increased the extensive margin of exports. Finally, shipping cost calculations show that the relative cost of using steamships fell dramatically and immediately after 1869, pointing to a vital role for Suez in the diffusion of steam technology.

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Title: A Theory of Self-Prospection (joint work with Polina Borisova (PSE))

Link to the paper is here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4828663

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Title: Traumatic Financial Experiences and Persistent Changes in Financial Behavior: Evidence from the Freedman's Savings Bank 

Abstract: The failure of the Freedman's Savings Bank (FSB), one of the only Black-serving banks in the early post-bellum South, was an economic catastrophe and one of the great episodes of racial exploitation in post-Emancipation history. It was also most Black Americans' first experience of banking. Can events like these permanently alter financial preferences and behavior? To test this, we examine the impact of FSB collapse on life insurance-holding, an accessible alternative savings vehicle over the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We document a sharp and persistent increase in insurance demand in affected counties following the shock, driven disproportionately by Black customers. We also use FSB migrant flows to disentangle place-based and cohort-based effects, thus identifying psychological and cultural scarring as a distinct mechanism underlying the shift in financial behavior induced by the bank's collapse. Horizontal and intergenerational transmission of preferences help explain the shock’s persistent effects on financial behavior.

Title: Optimal nonparametric inference on network effects with dependent edges

Abstract: Testing network effects in weighted directed networks is a foundational problem in econometrics, sociology, and psychology. Yet, the prevalent edge dependency poses a significant methodological challenge. Most existing methods are model-based and come with stringent assumptions, limiting their applicability. In response, we introduce a novel, fully nonparametric framework that requires only minimal regularity assumptions. While inspired by recent developments in U-statistic literature (Chen and Kato, 2019; Zhang and Xia, 2022), our approach notably broadens their scopes. Specifically, we identified and carefully addressed the challenge of indeterminate degeneracy in the test statistics -- a problem that aforementioned tools do not handle. We established Berry-Esseen type bounds for the accuracy of type-I error rate control. With original analysis, we also proved the minimax power optimality of our test. Simulations underscore the superiority of our method in computation speed, accuracy, and numerical robustness compared to competing methods. We also applied our method to the U.S. faculty hiring network data and discovered intriguing findings.

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