Papers by Jack Santucci
Public Opinion Quarterly, 2022
We explore the role of “political discontent” as a second dimension of American public opinion. O... more We explore the role of “political discontent” as a second dimension of American public opinion. Others have shown that a second dimension tends to capture social and/or racial attitudes. What happens when indicators of discontent are included in such analyses? Using data from two surveys and the ordered optimal classification (OOC) procedure, we scale seven items from the “discontent” literature alongside a larger set of questions that has been shown to capture the two-dimensional structure of mass opinion. Discontent items dominate the second dimension in both data sets. Further, five of the seven items predict voting for “insurgents” in the 2016 presidential primaries. Second-dimension attitudes matter in elections and concern the political system writ large. By extension, the liberal-conservative heuristic gives an incomplete picture of mass political behavior.
According to Freedom House, the number of electoral democracies has declined for three years in a... more According to Freedom House, the number of electoral democracies has declined for three years in a row. This is the first democratic recession since the end of the Cold War. The decline, in part, stems from the policies of the Bush Administration as well as from incomplete democratic transitions. It is also the result of deliberate reforms to strengthen authoritarian regimes. Unless the Obama administration addresses the causes of the democratic recession by focusing more attention on the difficulties of democratic consolidation, it is likely to deepen.
Politics & Governance, 2021
Ranked-choice voting has come to mean a range of electoral systems. Broadly, they can facilitate ... more Ranked-choice voting has come to mean a range of electoral systems. Broadly, they can facilitate (a) majority winners in single-seat districts, (b) majority rule with minority representation in multi-seat districts, or (c) majority sweeps in multiseat districts. Further, such systems can combine with rules to encourage/discourage slate voting. This article describes five major versions used, abandoned, and/or proposed for US public elections: alternative vote, single transferable vote, block-preferential voting, the bottoms-up system, and alternative vote with numbered posts. It then considers each from the perspective of a 'political strategist.' Simple models of voting (one with two parties, another with three) draw attention to real-world strategic issues: effects on minority representation, importance of party cues, and reasons for the political strategist to care about how voters rank choices. Unsurprisingly, different rules produce different outcomes with the same sets of ballots. Specific problems from the strategist's perspective are: 'majority reversal,' serving 'two masters,' and undisciplined third-party voters (or 'pure' independents). Some of these stem from well-known phenomena, e.g., ranking truncation and 'vote leakage.' The article also alludes to 'vote-management' tactics, i.e., rationing nominations and ensuring even distributions of first-choice votes. Illustrative examples come from American history and comparative politics. A running theme is the two-pronged failure of the Progressive Era reform wave: with respect to minority representation, then ranked voting's durability.
Politics & Policy, 2021
Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) is a class of reforms increasingly used in the United States to repl... more Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) is a class of reforms increasingly used in the United States to replace plurality and runoff elections. We ask whether support for RCV taps a larger generational divide in politics. We consult five surveys, two of these from recent adoption campaigns, and all with different ways of asking about RCV support. Generation is a significant predictor in four of these samples, accounting for standard demographic factors and partisanship. This relationship also holds within black and Republican subgroups, two groups often thought to be less likely to support RCV. Finally, we find that dissatisfaction with “the way that democracy works in America” is a plausible link between generation and reform support. For better or worse, RCV has potential to divide two important voting blocs in America. Our results suggest that, rather than turn away from electoral politics, a disaffected young generation may turn to reform.
Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties, 2020
We test the implications of the spatial realignment framework against data from the 2012–2016 ele... more We test the implications of the spatial realignment framework against data from the 2012–2016 electoral cycle. The data, which come from the 2011–2016 Voter Study Group survey, include 19 items asked of the same 4705 respondents in two periods. Social issues improved in their ability to separate liberals from conservatives, as well as Republican from Democratic voters. There was limited but statistically significant decline in polarization on some economic items (except trade). Decreased inter-party division on economic items has come with increased intra-party division, albeit asymmetrically between parties and across issues. Increased intra-party divisions are due to vote-switchers not having adopted their new parties’ positions. The changes we find are small and mostly consistent with spatial realignment. Overall, they amount to diminution of class-based politics, including on some social issues with redistributive implications.
Representation, 2018
Ranked-choice voting (RCV) manufactures an electoral majority in a fragmented candidate field. Fo... more Ranked-choice voting (RCV) manufactures an electoral majority in a fragmented candidate field. For RCV to pass at referendum, part of a reform coalition must be willing to lose election to the other part of that coalition, typically an out-of-power major party. A common enemy enables this sort of coalition by assuring (a) the out-of-power party of sufficient transfer votes to win and (b) a winner that junior reform partners prefer to the incumbent. I test this logic against the November 2016 adoption of RCV in Maine. First, I show that the most recent, runner-up party overwhelmingly supplied votes to the ‘yes’ side. I also show elite endorsements tending to come from this party, albeit not exclusively. Then I show a drift in the mass of public opinion, such that reform partners could coordinate. RCV is likely to find favour where voter preferences are polarised and lopsided, and where multiple candidates split the larger ideological bloc.
Electoral Studies, 2018
New interest in "multi-winner ranked-choice voting" raises old questions about effects on party c... more New interest in "multi-winner ranked-choice voting" raises old questions about effects on party cohesion. Earlier scholars thought this single transferable vote (STV) rule was net-problematic for parties. This paper consults the roll-call and electoral records in Cincinnati (1929-57) and Worcester, Mass. (1949-60), two of three American STV implementations that produced conventional wisdom. First, I show how party cohesion could be high or low. Then I show how low-cohesion terms followed elections in which candidates campaigned for themselves over their parties. Finally, I show that parties endorsed such candidates when they needed the votes to expand their seat shares. In sum, the data suggest a strategic environment in which majority-seeking parties reach beyond their traditional bases – potentially at the expense of legislative cohesion. Whether that is good or bad depends on the value we give to cohesion.
American Politics Research, Nov 9, 2017
The choice of proportional representation (PR) is rarely included in work on American local polit... more The choice of proportional representation (PR) is rarely included in work on American local politics. Yet we have long known that 24 cities adopted the single transferable vote form of PR from 1915-48. Breaking with a machine-reform dichotomy that dominates the PR historiography, I investigate two partisan hypotheses about PR’s origins. One concerns the emergence of third parties. A second involves splits in ruling parties. In at least 15 cases, PR choice involved an alliance of convenience between ruling-party defectors and local minority parties. Evidence includes narratives on the partisanship of elite PR backers, comparison of case history and precinct-level referendum outcomes for three similar cities, and aggregate data on big-city charter-change referenda from 1900-50. New in this paper is comparison of PR adopters to non-adopters. Party splits in places with sizable out-parties emerge as a distinctly American path to proportional electoral rules.
National Civic Review, Jan 1, 2006
Book Reviews by Jack Santucci
The Journal of Politics, 2020
Reviews three new books, each making a case for proportional representation and multiparty democr... more Reviews three new books, each making a case for proportional representation and multiparty democracy. Argues that election reform is coalition reshuffling, begins with the choice of reform partners, and, historically in the United States, has curtailed rights instead of expanding voting.
Teaching Documents by Jack Santucci
In 2019 two cities in Utah began using a type of ranked-choice voting for elections. And while ra... more In 2019 two cities in Utah began using a type of ranked-choice voting for elections. And while ranked-choice voting is more effective in increasing minority representation than first past the post voting, Utah's version may be harmful to minorities, argue Jack Santucci and Benjamin Reilly. As votes under this system can 'cascade' downwards from the first winner to others from he same party or group, they write that ‘block-preferential’ voting could lead to unfair outcomes if adopted more widely.
This week voters in the Pine Tree State chose to continue using ranked-choice voting in state-wid... more This week voters in the Pine Tree State chose to continue using ranked-choice voting in state-wide elections. Jack Santucci explains that ranked-choice voting is likely to be adopted in polarized political environments, creating majorities where there currently are none, and as a reaction to unpopular politicians who have won without majorities of votes. He reminds us that the current era of polarization is similar to that of one hundred years ago, the last time ranked-choice voting was in fashion.
The way that state and federal government are elected in the US has changed very little in the pa... more The way that state and federal government are elected in the US has changed very little in the past two centuries. Yet, the entrenched two-party system has led to increasing calls for electoral reform. One reform, used in many other countries, is proportional representation. Jack Santucci writes that some US cities were actually able to institute proportional representation before 1950 when the losing party and ruling party defectors teamed up. He cautions, however, that proportional representation does have its trade-offs.
The Washington Post, 2021
Last month, New York City's primary voters used ranked-choice voting (RCV). In a November 2019 re... more Last month, New York City's primary voters used ranked-choice voting (RCV). In a November 2019 referendum, the city adopted RCV by an overwhelming margin. The reform was touted as a faster and cheaper alternative to the previous runoff system and as an approach that would help eliminate the so-called spoiler effect, through which an unpopular candidate wins because their opponents split all the other votes. But reformers often conflate two types of spoiler effects. In one, the candidate with the most votes-the winner-may take the victory with less than 50 percent of the vote. In the other, the winner-takes-all voting system discourages candidates from running for fear of votesplitting. The way reformers try to "solve" the second effect might actually make the first one more likely.
Books by Jack Santucci
How should we think about electoral reform? What are the prospects for modern-day efforts to refo... more How should we think about electoral reform? What are the prospects for modern-day efforts to reform away the two-party system? This book offers a “shifting coalitions” theory of electoral-system change, puts the Progressive Era in comparative perspective, and warns against repeating history. It casts reform as an effort to get or keep control of government, usually during periods of party realignment. Reform can be used to insulate some coalition, dislodge the one in power, or deal with noncommittal “centrists.” Whether reform lasts depends less on the number of parties than on whether it helps coalitions hold themselves together. This is where the Progressives got it wrong. Unable to win support for “multi-party politics,” they built a reform movement on the idea of “no parties.” They polarized local politics on the issue of “corruption,” won proportional representation in twenty-four cities, then watched (and sometimes joined) its repeal in all but one case. Along the way, they found they needed parties after all, but the rules they had designed were not up to the task. This movement’s legacy still shapes American politics: nonpartisan elections to undersized city councils. Today’s reformers might do well to make peace with parties, and their critics might do well to make peace with having more.
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Papers by Jack Santucci
Book Reviews by Jack Santucci
Teaching Documents by Jack Santucci
Books by Jack Santucci