Any analysis of the future of the transition countries needs to be based on the fact that most of the countries west of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) have already made their choice: they want to join the European Union (EU). Since it was not possible to join the EU immediately, a transitional arrangement for trade was created in the early 1990s. The first section describes the existing (transitional) arrangements, and the next section provides a theoretical framework for judging their utility as a process towards EU membership.
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