Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
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p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¶V/LQN3HUIRUPDQFH $WPRVSKHULF$WWHQXDWLRQ 6FDWWHULQJ   $WPRVSKHULF7XUEXOHQFH 0RGXODWLRQ6FKHPHV(YDOXDWLRQ 3KRWRGHWHFWRU3HUIRUPDQFH LY )626\VWHP$QDO\VLV  &+$37(5 )626<67(0¶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á 6  '5 '7 *5 *7 ,  , ,  ,S ,W   ,[ ,\  L7 . N - ?  /5 /7 37 35 T 5 5/  7 9 = D  Á Û ¨I K 5 7 5 7  7  êå 6 5HIUDFWLYHLQGH[SDUDPHWHU 5HFHLYHUDSHUWXUHGLDPHWHU 7UDQVPLWWHUDSHUWXUHGLDPHWHU 5HFHLYLQJDQWHQQDJDLQ 7UDQVPLWWLQJDQWHQQDJDLQ 7RWDOFXUUHQW $YHUDJHSKRWRGHWHFWRUFXUUHQWIRU³´ELWUHFHLYHG $YHUDJHSKRWRGHWHFWRUFXUUHQWIRU³´ELWUHFHLYHG $YHUDJHSKRWRGHWHFWRUFXUUHQWZLWKRXWQRLVHHIIHFW 5HFHLYHGLUUDGLDQFH /DUJHVFDOHHGGLHVLUUDGLDQFH 6PDOOVFDOHHGGLHVLUUDGLDQFH 7KHUPDOQRLVHFXUUHQWIOXFWXDWLRQ %ROW]PDQQFRQVWDQW :DYHQXPEHU 0RGLILHG%HVVHOIXQFWLRQRIVHFRQGNLQG 3RLQWLQJHUURUORVVIDFWRUDWWKHUHFHLYHU 3RLQWQLJHUURUORVVIDFWRUDWWKHWUDQVPLWWHU 3RZHUWUDQVPLWWHG 3RZHUUHFHLYHG 6L]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIVFDWWHULQJSDUWLFOHV 5HVSRQVLYLW\RISKRWRGHWHFWRU /RDGUHVLVWDQFH $EVROXWHWHPSHUDWXUH 9LVLELOLW\ /LQNUDQJH $WPRVSKHULFDWWHQXDWLRQFRHIILFLHQW 1XPEHURIVPDOOVFDOHHGGLHV *DPPDIXQFWLRQ 1XPEHURIODUJHVFDOHHGGLHV (IIHFWLYHQRLVHEDQGZLGWK 4XDQWDPHIILFLHQF\ 5HFHLYHUHIILFLHQF\ 7UDQVPLWWHUHIILFLHQF\ 5HFHLYHUSRLQWLQJHUURU 7UDQVPLWWHUSRLQWLQJHUURU 7UDQVPLWWLQJZDYHOHQJWK 7KHUPDOQRLVHYDULDQFH 5\WRYYDULDQFH YL /,672)$%%5(9,$7,216 $(/ $16, $3' $:*1 %(3 %(5 %36. &(1(/(& '36. '436. )62 ,(& ,0'' /'3& /(' /26 /6& 0,02 15= 22. 3'$V SGI 3,1 330 4&/ 5) 5= 6'57 6,0 615 9&6(/ :2& $OORZDEOH([SRVXUH/LPLW $PHULFDQ1DWLRQDO6WDQGDUGV ,QVWLWXWH $YDODQFKH3KRWRGHWHFWRU $GGLWLYH:KLWH*DXVVLQ1RLVH %LW(UURU3UREDELOLW\ %LW(UURU5DWH %LQDU\3KDVH6KLIW.H\LQJ (XURSHDQ&RPPLWWHHIRU(OHFWURWHFKQLFDO 6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQ 'LIIHUHQWLDO3KDVH6KLIW.H\LQJ 'LIIHUHQWLDO4XDGUDWXUH3KDVH6KLIW.H\LQJ )UHH6SDFH2SWLFDO ,QWHUQDWLRQDO (OHFWURWHFKQLFDO&RPPLVVLRQ ,QWHQVLW\0RGXODWLRQ'LUHFW'HWHFWLRQ /RZ'HQVLW\3DULW\&KHFN /LJKW(PLWWLQJ'LRGH /LQHRI6LJKW /DVHU6DWHOOLWH&RPPXQLFDWLRQ 0XOWL,QSXW0XOWL2XWSXW 1RQ5HWXUQWR=HUR 2Q2II.H\LQJ 3HUVRQDO'LJLWDO$VVLVWDQWV 3UREDELOLW\'HQVLW\)XQFWLRQ 3RVLWLYH,QWULQVLF1HJDWLYH 3XOVH3RVLWLRQ0RGXODWLRQ 4XDQWDP&DVFDGHG/DVHU 5DGLR)UHTXHQF\ 5HWXUQWR=HUR 6SDFH'LYHUVLW\5HFHSWLRQ7HFKQLTXH 6XEFDUULHU,QWHQVLW\0RGXODWLRQ 6LJQDOWR1RLVH5DWLR 9HUWLFDO&DYLW\6XUIDFH(PLWWLQJ/DVHU :LUHOHVV2SWLFDO&RPPXQLFDWLRQV YLL )LJXUH                          /,672)),*85(6  3DJH )62YVILEHUOLQN¶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¶VSRZHUIRUQPXQGHUFOHDUDLUDQGVWURQJ  WXUEXOHQFH 3RLQWLQJ HUURU YHUVXV VLJQDO¶V SRZHU IRU  QP XQGHU KD]H DQG PRGHUDWH  WXUEXOHQFH 3RLQWLQJHUURUYHUVXVVLJQDO¶VSRZHUIRUQPXQGHUIRJDQGZHDN  WXUEXOHQFH 3RLQWLQJ HUURU YHUVXV VLJQDO¶V SRZHU IRU  QP XQGHU FOHDU DLUVWURQJ  WXUEXOHQFHKD]HPRGHUDWHWXUEXOHQFHDQGIRJZHDNWXUEXOHQFH 3RLQWLQJHUURUYHUVXVVLJQDO¶VSRZHUIRUQPXQGHUFOHDUDLUDQGVWURQJ  WXUEXOHQFH 3RLQWLQJHUURUYHUVXVVLJQDO¶VSRZHUIRUQPXQGHUKD]HDQGPRGHUDWH  WXUEXOHQFH 3RLQWLQJ HUURU YHUVXV VLJQDO¶V SRZHU IRU  QP XQGHU IRJ DQG ZHDN  WXUEXOHQFH 3RLQWLQJ HUURU YHUVXV VLJQDO¶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Ȝ QP 0D[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURUVDQGUHFHLYHGVLJQDOSRZHUDWGLIIHUHQW ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQVIRU15=5=OLQHFRGHVDQG$3'3,1UHFHLYHUVȜ QP 0D[LPXP SRLQWLQJ HUURUV DQG UHFHLYHG VLJQDO¶V SRZHU DW GLIIHUHQW ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQV IRU 15=5= OLQH FRGHV DQG $3'3,1 UHFHLYHUV Ȝ  QP 5HIUDFWLYHLQGH[SDUDPHWHU&Q IRUGLIIHUHQWWXUEXOHQFHOHYHOV 0D[LPXP DOORZDEOH SRLQWLQJ HUURU DW GLIIHUHQW DWPRVSKHULF SKHQRPHQD IRUQP 0D[LPXP DOORZDEOH SRLQWLQJ HUURU DW GLIIHUHQW DWPRVSKHULF SKHQRPHQD IRUQP L[ 3DJH             &KDSWHU,QWURGXFWLRQ ±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ϭ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¶VPRGHO>@ .UXVH¶V0RGHO >@$O1DERXOVL¶V DGYHFWLRQIRJPRGHO>@>@DQG$O1DERXOVL¶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±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Ϯ ±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ϯ &KDSWHU%DFNJURXQGDQG/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ ±,QWURGXFWLRQ ,QWKHSDVWIHZGHFDGHVDQXQSUHFHGHQWHGGHPDQGIRUZLUHOHVVWHFKQRORJLHVKDVEHHQWDNLQJ SODFH %RWK LQGXVWULDO DQG SULYDWH FXVWRPHUV DUH GHPDQGLQJ SURGXFWV  IRU D ZLGH UDQJH RI DSSOLFDWLRQV WKDW LQFRUSRUDWH ZLUHOHVV IHDWXUHV ZKLFK DOORZ WKHP WR H[FKDQJH UHFHLYH RU WUDQVPLW LQIRUPDWLRQ ZLWKRXW WKH LQFRQYHQLHQFH RI KDYLQJ WR EH IL[HG WR DQ\ SDUWLFXODU ORFDWLRQ /DSWRSV SHUVRQDO GLJLWDO DVVLVWDQWV DQG PRELOH SKRQHV WR QDPH MXVW D IHZ H[DPSOHVDUHEHFRPLQJSDUWRIWKH HYHU\GD\OLIHRID JURZLQJQXPEHU RISHRSOH$OOWKHVH GHYLFHVDUHLQFUHDVLQJO\LQFRUSRUDWLQJWHFKQRORJLHVWKDWDOORZWKHPWRZRUNZLWKRXWFDEOHV 7KH EHQHILWV RI ZLUHOHVV WHFKQRORJLHV DUH QRW OLPLWHG WR XVHU FRQYHQLHQFH LQ WHUPV RI PRELOLW\DQGIOH[LELOLW\LQWKHSODFHPHQWRIWHUPLQDOV6LJQLILFDQWUHGXFWLRQVLQFRVWDQGWLPH DOVR FDQ EH DFKLHYHG LQ D QXPEHU RI DSSOLFDWLRQV XVLQJ ZLUHOHVV VROXWLRQV 5HFRQILJXULQJ FRPSXWHU WHUPLQDOV RU PLFURFRQWUROOHU V\VWHPV LQ SODFHV VXFK DV ODERUDWRULHV FRQIHUHQFH URRPVRIILFHVKRVSLWDOVSURGXFWLRQIORRUVRU HGXFDWLRQDO LQVWLWXWLRQV IRULQVWDQFH FDQEH GRQH UHODWLYHO\ FKHDSO\ DQG TXLFNO\ ZLWK ZLUHOHVV QHWZRUNV 0DLQWDLQLQJ DQG UHFRQILJXULQJ ZLUHGQHWZRUNVRQWKHRWKHUKDQGLVXVXDOO\FDUULHGRXWLQPRUHH[SHQVLYHWLPHFRQVXPLQJ DQG FRPSOLFDWHG ZD\V HVSHFLDOO\ LQ VLWXDWLRQV ZKHUH FDEOHV DUH JURXQGHG RU LQVWDOOHG LQ LQDFFHVVLEOH SODFHV  )XUWKHUPRUH FDEOHV DUH VXVFHSWLEOH WR GDPDJH ZKLFK PHDQV SRWHQWLDO GLVUXSWLRQWRWKHQHWZRUNRSHUDWLRQ>@ )62 FRPPXQLFDWLRQ QRZDGD\V LV RQH RI WKH PDMRU KRW WRSLFV LQ WKH ZRUOG RI RSWLFDO DQG ZLUHOHVVFRPPXQLFDWLRQV)62LVRIWHQUHIHUUHGWRDV³ILEHUOHVVRSWLFV´RU³RSWLFDOZLUHOHVV´ WUDQVPLVVLRQ 7KLV W\SH RI ILEHUOHVV RSWLFDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQV WHFKQRORJ\ XVHV D KLJKO\ GLUHFWHG QDUURZ OLJKW EHDP WR WUDQVPLW GDWD EHWZHHQ WZR IL[HG SRLQWV WKURXJK XQJXLGHG FKDQQHOV>@ /26WRSRORJ\LVXVHGIRU)62OLQNVDVWKHWUDQVPLWWHUDQG UHFHLYHU DUHDOLJQHGZLWKRXWDQ\ EDUULHUWKDWFRXOGOHDGWROLQNIDLOXUH)62XQJXLGHGFKDQQHOVFRXOGEHVSDFHDWPRVSKHUHDQG VHDZDWHURUDFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHVHPHGLD>@   ϰ )62 LV FRPPHUFLDOO\ HPHUJHG DV DQ DOWHUQDWLYH WR UDGLR IUHTXHQF\ DQG PLOOLPHWHU ZDYHV ZLUHOHVVV\VWHPVHQKDQFLQJSHUIRUPDQFHRIGDWD DQGYRLFHQHWZRUNV&RQVLGHULQJ HPHUJLQJ OLFHQVHIUHHEDQGVLQUDGLRIUHTXHQF\V\VWHPVEDQGZLGWKDQGUDQJHOLPLWDWLRQVVKRZVDEHWWHU SHUIRUPDQFHRI)62FRPSDUHGWRRWKHUOLFHQVHIUHHEDQGV 7KHSKRWRSKRQHRI$OH[DQGHU*UDKDP%HOOLQYHQWHGLQLVWKHHDUOLHVWIRUPRI)62,Q WKLVH[SHULPHQWVXQ¶VUDGLDWLRQZDVPRGXODWHGZLWKYRLFHVLJQDOVDQGZDVWUDQVPLWWHGRYHUD GLVWDQFHRIDERXW PHWHUV 7KHUHFHLYHUZDVPDGHRIDSDUDEROLFPLUURUZLWK DVHOHQLXP FHOO DW LWV IRFDO SRLQW +RZHYHU WKH H[SHULPHQW GLG QRW JR YHU\ ZHOO EHFDXVH RI WKH EDG SHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHGHYLFHVXVHGDQGWKHQDWXUHRIWKHVXQ¶VUDGLDWLRQDVDFDUULHU%\WKHWLPH RIWKHGLVFRYHU\RIODVHULQWKHSUREOHPRIEDGVRXUFHRIIUHTXHQF\FDUULHUVZDVVROYHG >@ ±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±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ϱ &RPSDUHGWRILEHUOLQNV)62LVFRVWVDYLQJDVQRQHHGWRGLJXSDVVKRZQLQ)LJXUHV DQG>@>@   &ŝŐƵƌĞϮ͘ϭ͗&^Ks^ĨŝďĞƌůŝŶŬ͛ƐĐŽƐƚ >@    )LJXUH%DQGZLGWK96FRVWFRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQ)625)DQGILEHUOLQNV>@ H  4XLFN WR GHSOR\ DQG UHGHSOR\ 7KH WLPH LW WDNHV IRU DQ )62 OLQN WR EHFRPH IXOO\ RSHUDWLRQDOVWDUWLQJIURPLQVWDOODWLRQGRZQWROLQNDOLJQPHQWFRXOGEHDVORZDVIRXU   ϲ KRXUV7KHVHIRXUKRXUVDUHWKHWLPHWDNHQWRPDNH/26EHWZHHQWKHWUDQVPLWWHUDQG WKHUHFHLYHU ,WFDQDVZHOOEHWDNHQGRZQDQGUHGHSOR\HGWR DQRWKHUORFDWLRQTXLWH HDVLO\)LJXUHVKRZVDSUDFWLFDO)62OLQNGHSOR\PHQW>@   )LJXUH3UDFWLFDO)62OLQN'HSOR\PHQW I  :HDWKHU GHSHQGHQW )62 V\VWHPV DUH DOVR OHVV YXOQHUDEOH WR VQRZ DQG UDLQ FRPSDUHGWR5)V\VWHPV2QWKHRWKHUKDQGDQ)62OLQNLVKLJKO\DIIHFWHGE\IRJDQG DWPRVSKHULFWXUEXOHQFH>@ ±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ϳ F  6DWHOOLWH FRPPXQLFDWLRQ /DVHU 6DWHOOLWH &RPPXQLFDWLRQ /6&  LV XVHG DV D UHSODFHPHQWRIWKHUDGLRFRPPXQLFDWLRQLQVDWHOOLWHVDVVKRZQLQ )LJ7KH /6& WHUPLQDOLQFOXGHVDQRSWLFDOWUDQVPLWWHUDQGDUHFHLYHUWKDWDUHSODFHGRQVDWHOOLWHVDWD VHSDUDWLRQGLVWDQFHRIEHWZHHQKXQGUHGVDQGWKRXVDQGVRINLORPHWHUV>@   )LJXUH/DVHUVDWHOOLWHQHWZRUN>@ G  &HOOXODU FRPPXQLFDWLRQ EDFN±KDXO FDQ EH XVHG WR EDFN±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ϴ  )LJXUH)62OLQNHPHUJHGLQ0REL1LO(J\SWFHOOXODUQHWZRUN>@   )LJXUH)RXUKLJKFDSDFLW\)62V\VWHPVLQSDUDOOHORYHU+XGVRQ5LYHU1HZ<RUN>@ ±)62%ORFN'LDJUDP )62 &RPPXQLFDWLRQ V\VWHP OLNH RWKHU V\VWHPV FRQVLVWV RI WKUHH SDUWV WUDQVPLWWHU FKDQQHO DQG UHFHLYHU7KHEORFNGLDJUDPRIWKH)62V\VWHPLVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJ>@   ϵ  )LJXUH)62OLQNEORFNGLDJUDP>@ ±7KH7UDQVPLWWHU 7DEOH2SWLFDOVRXUFHV 2SWLFDO6RXUFH 2SHUDWLQJ:DYHOHQJWK 9HUWLFDOFDYLW\VXUIDFH HPLWWLQJODVHU 9&6(/  aQP )DEU\±3HURWDQG 'LVWULEXWHGIHHGEDFNODVHUV aaQP /LJKW(PLWWLQJ'LRGHV /('  aaQP  &KDUDFWHULVWLFV &KHDS 3RZHUOHYHORIPLOOLZDWV 'DWDUDWHXSWR*ESV /RQJOLIH /RZHUH\HVDIHW\FULWHULD +LJKSRZHUOHYHOVUHDFKLQJ : +LJKGDWDUDWHVWR*ESV &KHDS 6DIH /RZGDWDUDWHV  0SEV  /RZSRZHUOHYHOV  P:  7UDQVPLWWHU¶V EORFN LV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU PRGXODWLQJ WKH GHVLUHG PHVVDJH WR EH WUDQVPLWWHG WKURXJK WKH DWPRVSKHULF FKDQQHO WR LWV GHVWLQDWLRQ 0RGXODWLQJ PHVVDJHV LV XVXDOO\ KHOG WKURXJK LQWHQVLW\ PRGXODWLRQ E\ YDU\LQJ WKH GULYLQJ FXUUHQW RI WKH RSWLFDO VRXUFH GLUHFWO\ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH PHVVDJH ELWV RU XVLQJ DQ H[WHUQDO PRGXODWRU VXFK DV 0DFK=HKQGHU LQWHUIHURPHWHU   ϭϬ 7KHWUDQVPLWWHU¶VWHOHVFRSHLVXVHGIRUFROOHFWLQJDQGGLUHFWLQJWKHPRGXODWHGVLJQDOWRZDUGV WKH UHFHLYHU 7KH PRVW FRPPRQO\ RSWLFDO VRXUFHV XVHG LQ IUHH VSDFH RSWLFDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DUHSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH ,Q)62OLQNVRSHUDWLQJ ZDYHOHQJWKV LV XVXDOO\ VHOHFWHG EHWZHHQ QPDQGEDQGV>@>@ ±7KH5HFHLYHU )62¶V RSWLFDO UHFHLYHU LV XVHG LQ UHFRYHULQJ WKH WUDQVPLWWHG GDWD 7KH UHFHLYHU FRQVLVWV RI WHOHVFRSHEDQGSDVVILOWHUSKRWRGHWHFWRUDQGGHFLVLRQFLUFXLW>@ 5HFHLYHU¶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ȘLVDPHDVXUHRIWKHDYHUDJHQXPEHURIHOHFWURQKROHSDLUV JHQHUDWHGSHULQFLGHQWSKRWRQ,QDSUDFWLFDO3,1SKRWRGLRGHȘUDQJHVIURPWR>@ 7KH$3'LVFRQVWUXFWHGVLPLODUO\WRD3,1SKRWRGLRGH,QVRPHPRGHOVWKHUHLVDVHFRQGS W\SH OD\HU EHWZHHQ WKH LQWULQVLF OD\HU DQG WKH QW\SH OD\HU WKH OD\HUV DUH SLSQ  ,QFLGHQW SKRWRQV VWLOO JHQHUDWH HOHFWURQKROH SDLUV EXW QRZ WKHUH LV DQ ³DYDODQFKH´ HIIHFW (DFK IUHH HOHFWURQRUKROHKDVWKHSRWHQWLDOWRFUHDWHPRUHIUHHHOHFWURQVRUKROHVDVLWWUDYHUVHVWKHJDLQ UHJLRQ WKH H[WUD SW\SH OD\HU DQG SDUW RI WKH QW\SH OD\HU  (DFK QHZO\ FUHDWHG HOHFWURQ RU KROHFDQWKHQUHSHDWWKHSURFHVVXQWLODOOFDUULHUVKDYHH[LWHGWKHJDLQUHJLRQ7KLVDYDODQFKH SURFHVV FUHDWHV PXOWLSOH FDUULHUV IRU HYHU\ LQFLGHQW SKRWRQ 7KLV LQFUHDVH LQ WKH QXPEHU RI FDUULHUVLVNQRZQDVWKH$3'JDLQ 7DEOHVKRZVOLVWVRPHRIFRPPHUFLDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFV IRU3,1VDQG$3'VIDEULFDWHGIURPGLIIHUHQWPDWHULDOV>@   ϭϭ 7DEOH&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRI3,1DQG$3'SKRWRGLRGHVIDEULFDWHGIURPGLIIHUHQWPDWHULDOV>@  0DWHULDODQG 6WUXFWXUH 6L3,1  :DYHOHQJWK QP  5HVSRQVLYLW\ $:  *H3,1 ,Q*D$V3,1 6L$3' *H$3' ,Q*D$V$3'                            *DLQ             )LQDOO\WKHGHFLVLRQFLUFXLWLVZKHUHDQ\W\SHRIDPSOLILFDWLRQRUVLJQDOSURFHVVLQJQHHGHGLQ GDWDUHFRYHU\FDUULHGRXW>@ ±$WPRVSKHULF(IIHFWV $WPRVSKHUHLVGHILQHGDVWKHJDVHRXVPDVVRUHQYHORSHVXUURXQGLQJDFHOHVWLDOERG\ (DUWK  7KHDWPRVSKHUHUHDFKHVRYHUNPIURPWKH(DUWK¶VVXUIDFHDQGLWLVUHWDLQHGE\WKH(DUWK¶V JUDYLWDWLRQDOIRUFH)62OLQNVRSHUDWHDWWKHORZHUSDUWRIWKHDWPRVSKHUH ZKLFKLVWKHRQH FORVHVW WR WKH (DUWK¶V VXUIDFH DQG LV FDOOHG WKH WURSRVSKHUH  ZKHUH LW EHKDYHV DV D IOXLG LQ K\GURVWDWLFHTXLOLEULXPDQGLWVGHQVLW\LVKLJKHU>@ 7KHSHUIRUPDQFHRID)62OLQNLVSULPDULO\GHSHQGHQWXSRQWKHFOLPDWRORJ\DQGWKHSK\VLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI LWV LQVWDOODWLRQ ORFDWLRQ :HDWKHU FRQGLWLRQV UHGXFH YLVLELOLW\ ZKLFK DOVR DIIHFWV WKH )62 OLQN SHUIRUPDQFH 7KH SULPDU\ IDFWRUV DIIHFWLQJ SHUIRUPDQFH LQFOXGH DWPRVSKHULFDWWHQXDWLRQWXUEXOHQFHDQGZLQGRZDWWHQXDWLRQ ±$WPRVSKHULF$WWHQXDWLRQ $WPRVSKHULF DWWHQXDWLRQ LV WKH SURFHVV ZKHUHE\ VRPH RU DOO RI WKH HQHUJ\ RI DQ HOHFWURPDJQHWLF ZDYH LV ORVW DEVRUEHG DQGRU VFDWWHUHG  ZKHQ WUDYHUVLQJ WKH DWPRVSKHUH $EVRUSWLRQ LV GHILQHG DV WKH SURFHVV RI FRQYHUVLRQ RI WKH HQHUJ\ RI D SKRWRQ WR LQWHUQDO HQHUJ\ ZKHQ HOHFWURPDJQHWLF UDGLDWLRQ LV FDSWXUHG E\ PDWWHU :KHQ SDUWLFOHV LQ WKH DWPRVSKHUHDEVRUEOLJKWWKLVDEVRUSWLRQSURYRNHVDWUDQVLWLRQ RUH[FLWDWLRQ LQWKHSDUWLFOH¶V PROHFXOHVIURPDORZHUHQHUJ\OHYHOWRDKLJKHURQH7KHRQO\OLJKWWKDWFDQEHDEVRUEHGLV   ϭϮ WKH RQH IURP HQHUJ\ WKDW FDQ FUHDWH WUDQVLWLRQV IURP RQH HQHUJ\ OHYHO WR DQRWKHU 7KH PROHFXOHV JREDFNWRWKHLURULJLQDOXQH[FLWHGVWDWHVWKURXJKGLVFUHWHHPLVVLRQVRIUDGLDWLRQ )LJXUHVKRZVWKHHIIHFWRIZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVRQ)62OLQN>@  )LJXUH'HQYHU&RORUDGRIRJHYHQW>@ 6FDWWHULQJ LV GHILQHG DV WKH GLVSHUVDO RI D EHDP RI SDUWLFOHV RU RI UDGLDWLRQ LQWR D UDQJH RI GLUHFWLRQVDV DUHVXOWRI SK\VLFDOLQWHUDFWLRQV:KHQDSDUWLFOHLQWHUFHSWV DQHOHFWURPDJQHWLF ZDYHDSDUWRIWKHZDYH¶VHQHUJ\LVUHPRYHGE\WKHSDUWLFOHDQGUHUDGLDWHGLQWRDVROLGDQJOH FHQWHUHGDWLW7KHEHKDYLRURIWKHUHUDGLDWLRQ VFDWWHULQJ GHSHQGVRQWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRI WKH SDUWLFOH LWV VL]H LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH ZDYHOHQJWK RI WKH LQWHUFHSWHG HQHUJ\ LWV LQGH[ RI UHIUDFWLRQ5D\OHLJKVFDWWHULQJ0LHVFDWWHULQJDQGQRQVHOHFWLYHVFDWWHULQJDUHWKHWKUHHPDLQ W\SHVRIWKHDWPRVSKHULFVFDWWHULQJ>@>@ ±7XUEXOHQFH 6RODUUDGLDWLRQDEVRUEHGE\WKH(DUWK¶VVXUIDFHFDXVHVDLUDURXQGWKHHDUWKVXUIDFHWREHZDUPHU WKDQ WKDW DW WKH KLJKHU DOWLWXGH 7KLV OD\HU RI ZDUPHU DLU EHFRPHV OHVV GHQVH DQG ULVHV WR PL[ WXUEXOHQWO\ ZLWK WKH VXUURXQGLQJ FRROHU DLU FDXVLQJ WKH DLU WHPSHUDWXUH WR IOXFWXDWH UDQGRPO\ ,QKRPRJHQHLWLHV FDXVHG E\ WXUEXOHQFH FDQ EH YLHZHG DV GLVFUHWH FHOOV DV VKRZQ LQ )LJ  RU HGGLHV RI GLIIHUHQW WHPSHUDWXUH DFWLQJ OLNH UHIUDFWLYH SULVPV RI GLIIHUHQW VL]HV DQG LQGLFHV RI UHIUDFWLRQ>@͘   ϭϯ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±:LQGRZ$WWHQXDWLRQ 2QHRIWKHDGYDQWDJHVRIWKH)62V\VWHPVLVWKDWWKH\DOORZFRPPXQLFDWLRQWKURXJKZLQGRZV ZLWKRXW WKH QHHG IRU URRIWRSPRXQWHG DQWHQQDV >@ 7KLV LV HVSHFLDOO\ DGYDQWDJHRXV IRU FRQQHFWLQJLQGLYLGXDOFXVWRPHUVZKRPD\RUPD\QRWKDYHDFFHVVWRDEXLOGLQJURRIDQGDOVR PD\ KDYH WR SD\ IRU DFFHVV WR WKH ULVHU ZLULQJ RI D EXLOGLQJ (YHQ WKRXJK ZLQGRZV DOORZ RSWLFDOVLJQDOVWRSDVVWKURXJKWKHPWKH\DOODGGVRPHDPRXQWRIDWWHQXDWLRQWRWKHVLJQDO   ϭϰ ±%HDP'LYHUJHQFH 0DLQWDLQLQJWUDQVFHLYHUDOLJQPHQWLVDQLPSRUWDQWLVVXHIRU)62V\VWHPV$KLJKO\GLUHFWLRQDO DQGQDUURZEHDPRIOLJKWDUHWUDQVPLWWHGE\)62WUDQVFHLYHUVRIWRPUDGGLYHUJHQFH DWWKHWUDQVPLWWHUDQGW\SLFDOO\VSUHDGVWRURXJKO\FPWRPLQGLDPHWHUDWDUDQJHRINP 6RWKHV\VWHPPXVWEHIL[HGHIILFLHQWO\WRHQVXUHVXIILFLHQWHQHUJ\UHDFKLQJWKHUHFHLYHU>@ ±1RLVH 2SWLFDO UHFHLYHUV FRQYHUW LQFLGHQW RSWLFDO SRZHU LQWR HOHFWULF FXUUHQW WKURXJK D SKRWRGLRGH 'LIIHUHQWQRLVHPHFKDQLVPVOHDGWRIOXFWXDWLRQVLQWKHFXUUHQWHYHQZKHQWKHLQFLGHQWRSWLFDO VLJQDOKDVDFRQVWDQWSRZHU7KHPDLQQRLVHPHFKDQLVPVLQ)62SKRWRGHWHFWRUVDUHWKHUPDO QRLVHVKRWQRLVHDQGEDFNJURXQGQRLVH ±7KHUPDO1RLVH (OHFWURQVPRYHUDQGRPO\LQDQ\FRQGXFWRUDWDFHUWDLQWHPSHUDWXUHUDQGRPWKHUPDOPRWLRQ RIHOHFWURQVLQDUHVLVWRUPDQLIHVWVDVDIOXFWXDWLQJFXUUHQWHYHQLQWKHDEVHQFHRIDQDSSOLHG YROWDJH7KHORDGUHVLVWRULQWKHIURQWHQGRIDQRSWLFDOUHFHLYHUDGGVVXFKIOXFWXDWLRQVWRWKH FXUUHQWJHQHUDWHGE\WKHSKRWRGLRGH>@ ±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ϭϱ ±%DFNJURXQG1RLVH %DFNJURXQG UDGLDWLRQ IURP WKH VXQ DUWLILFLDO LOOXPLQDWLRQ RU RWKHU VRXUFHV RI UHIOHFWHG RU VFDWWHUHG OLJKW DUH DQ XQGHVLUHG VRXUFH RI SRZHU WR UHFHLYHUV >@ 7KLV LV D VSHFLILF RSWLFDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQSUREOHPUHVXOWLQJIURPKLJKHQHUJ\SKRWRQVDWRSWLFDOZDYHOHQJWKV ±0RGXODWLRQ6FKHPHV 2Q2II.H\LQJ 22. LVWKHPRVWXVHGPRGXODWLRQVFKHPHLQWKHFRPPHUFLDO)62V\VWHPV ,WVLPSO\GHSHQGVRQWKHQRQUHWXUQWR]HUR 15= DQGUHWXUQWR]HUR 5= OLQHFRGHVGXHLWLWV VLPSOLFLW\)RU15=22.WKHSXOVHV\PERO³´LVUHSUHVHQWHGE\SXOVHRSWLFDOSHDNDQGWKH SXOVH ³´ LV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ D IDFWRU RI WKH SXOVH RSWLFDO SHDN )RU 5=22. SXOVH ³´ LV UHSUHVHQWHG DV WKH VDPH RI 15=22. DQG SXOVH ³´ LV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ ]HUR SRZHU 2WKHU PRGXODWLRQ VFKHPHV OLNH SXOVH SRVLWLRQ PRGXODWLRQ 330  DQG VXEFDUULHU LQWHQVLW\ PRGXODWLRQ 6,0 FRXOGEHXVHGLQ)62V\VWHPV>@ ±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¶V FDSDELOLW\ RI VHHLQJ WKH EHDP 7KH PRUH WKH UHFHLYHU LV FDSDEOH RI UHFHLYLQJ WKH EHDP WKH PRUHWKHV\VWHPLVUHOLDEOH   ϭϲ  )LJ&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI:2&OLQNV>@ ±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±(\HDQG6NLQ6DIHW\ 6DIHW\ FRQVLGHUDWLRQV PXVW EH WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW ZKHQ GHVLJQLQJ D ZLUHOHVV RSWLFDO OLQN 6LQFHWKHHQHUJ\LVSURSDJDWHGLQDIUHHVSDFHFKDQQHOWKHLPSDFWRIWKLVUDGLDWLRQRQKXPDQ VDIHW\ PXVW EH FRQVLGHUHG 7KHUH DUH D QXPEHU RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO VWDQGDUGV ERGLHV ZKLFK   ϭϳ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Ȝ QP  6DIHIRUYLHZLQJZLWKXQDLGHGH\H'LUHFWLQWUDEHDPYLHZLQJ ZLWKRSWLFDODLGVPD\EHKD]DUGRXV 'LUHFWLQWUDEHDPYLHZLQJLVDOZD\VKD]DUGRXV9LHZLQJGLIIXVH UHIOHFWLRQVLVQRUPDOO\VDIH 7KHFULWLFDOSDUDPHWHUZKLFKGHWHUPLQHVZKHWKHUDVRXUFHIDOOVLQWRDJLYHQFODVVGHSHQGVRQ WKHDSSOLFDWLRQ7KHDOORZDEOHH[SRVXUHOLPLW $(/ GHSHQGVRQWKHZDYHOHQJWKRIWKHRSWLFDO VRXUFHWKHJHRPHWU\RIWKHHPLWWHUDQGWKHLQWHQVLW\RIWKHVRXUFH>@͘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ϭϴ ±)62LQ0DUNHW )62FRPPXQLFDWLRQOLQNVDUHDYDLODEOHLQPDUNHWVDQGDUHXVHGLQVHYHUDODSSOLFDWLRQV'DWD UDWHVRISUDFWLFDO)62OLQNVYDULHVEHWZHHQ0ESV*ESVDQGOLQNGLVWDQFHVFRXOGUHDFK NP)LJXUHVKRZVPDUNHWOHDGLQJFRPSDQLHVWKDWSURYLGHV)62OLQNV>@>@  )LJ)62PDUNHWOHDGLQJFRPSDQLHV ±/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ ±,QWURGXFWLRQ 7KH SHUIRUPDQFH HYDOXDWLRQV IRU )62 OLQN WUDQVPLWWHUV UHFHLYHUV ZDYHOHQJWKV FOLPDWLF HIIHFWV HQYLURQPHQWDO HIIHFWV DUH WKH PDLQ LQWHUHVWLQJ WRSLFV LQ )62 UHVHDUFKHV ,Q WKLV VHFWLRQPRVWLPSRUWDQWVWXGLHVWKDWJXLGHXVWKURXJKRXUZRUNZLOOEHEULHIO\SUHVHQWHG ±)62¶V7UDQVPLWWLQJ:DYHOHQJWKV ,QHIIHFWVRIGLIIHUHQWZDYHOHQJWKVZLQGRZVRQ)62OLQNSHUIRUPDQFHZHUHSUHVHQWHG E\ +DLQ 0DQRU >@ $ PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHO IRU VKRUW UDQJH )62 OLQNV ZHUH GHULYHG DQG VLPXODWLRQVSURYHWKDWWKHZDYHOHQJWKUDQJHRI—PDFKLHYHVKLJKHUDYDLODELOLW\E\ WKDQWKHZDYHOHQJWKZLGRZRI—PKLJKOLJKWLQJWKHFRPSOH[LW\DQGWKHFRVWRIWKH ODVHUVRXUFHUHTXLUHGIRUZDYHOHQJWKVRIWKH —P UDQJH:DYHOHQJWKSHUIRUPDQFH HIIHFWV RQ)62OLQNVZHUHWHVWHGIRUYDULRXVZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV   ϭϵ  ±(IIHFWVRI$WPRVSKHULF3KHQRPHQDRQ)62¶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±)HEUXDU\ HLJKWGD\V -XQH±-XO\ DQGWZR PRQWKV 6HSWHPEHU 'HFHPEHU UHVSHFWLYHO\ ,WZDVFRQFOXGHGWKDWIRJLV WKH PRVWOLPLWLQJIDFWRUDVFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHORVVHVLQFXUUHGE\UDLQDQGVQRZ ,QFRQWLQHQWDODQGGU\IRJDWWHQXDWLRQH[SHULPHQWDOGDWDFROOHFWHGE\06$ZDQRQ P)62OLQNLQVWDOOHGDW*UD]LQFRPSDULVRQZLWKWKHLUSDUWLFOHDQGIODNHGHQVLW\UHVSHFWLYHO\ >@ %DVHG RQ REVHUYHG UHODWLYH KXPLGLW\ WHPSHUDWXUH DQG VSHFLILF DWWHQXDWLRQ YDOXHV IRU WKH)62OLQNFDVHKHSURSRVHGDVLPSOHHPSLULFDOPRGHOWRSUHGLFWRSWLFDODWWHQXDWLRQLQFDVH RIFRQWLQHQWDOIRJWKDWVKRZHGVWURQJFRUUHODWLRQZLWKWKHWHPSHUDWXUHDQGUHODWLYHKXPLGLW\ $FRQFOXGHGOLQNPDUJLQZDVSUHVHQWHGWRWKHGLIIHUHQWZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQFDVHV    ϮϬ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±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a G% RI 615 LV UHTXLUHG LQ ZHDN WXUEXOHQFH FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ ORJ LQWHQVLW\ YDULDQFH RI  7KH YDOXH RI WKH UHTXLUHG 615 LQFUHDVHV DV WKH WXUEXOHQFH OHYHO ULVHV H[SHFWHGO\ :LWK VSDWLDO GLYHUVLW\ HPSOR\LQJ WZR   Ϯϭ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±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±3KRWRGHWHFWRU3HUIRUPDQFH ,Q.DPUDQ.LDVDOHKFKDUDFWHUL]HGWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRID''$3')62FRPPXQLFDWLRQ V\VWHP LQ WHUPV RI WKH RYHUDOO ELWHUURU UDWH >@ 7KH SURSRVHG V\VWHP XVHG 330 DQG LV VXEMHFWHGWRVFLQWLOODWLRQGXHWRRSWLFDOWXUEXOHQFH5HVXOWVFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRI   ϮϮ )62V\VWHPVLVVHYHUHO\LPSDFWHGE\WXUEXOHQFHDQGWKDWDQRSWLPXPDYHUDJHRI$3'JDLQ PXVWEHXVHGWRDYRLGH[FHVVLYH$3'QRLVHLQWKHUHFHLYHU ±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Ϯϯ $EGXOIDWDK$*$EXVKDJXUHYDOXDWHG)62V\VWHPSHUIRUPDQFHLQ>@$WPRVSKHULF VFDWWHULQJ DQG DEVRUSWLRQ HIIHFWV WUDQVFHLYHUV JHRPHWULFDO JDLQ WUDQVFHLYHUV RSWLFV HIILFLHQFLHVEHDPGLYHUJHQFHHIIHFWDQGSRLQWLQJHUURUVZHUHLQYHVWLJDWHG5HVXOWVFRQFOXGHG WKDWLQRUGHUWRDFKLHYHD%(5RIíDWDYLVLELOLW\RINPDG%SRZHUSHQDOW\LV LQFXUUHG IRU DWPRVSKHULF FKDQQHO LQ KD]H FRQGLWLRQ ZKLOH IRU DWPRVSKHULF FKDQQHO LQ UDLQ FRQGLWLRQ DW D UDLQIDOO UDWH  PPK  G% SRZHU SHQDOW\ LV LQGXFHG )RU WKH DWPRVSKHULF FKDQQHOLQIRJFRQGLWLRQWKHYLVLELOLW\FDQUHDFKNPDQGLQGXFHVDSRZHUSHQDOW\RIG% WRPDLQWDLQWKH%(5RIí:KHQWKHSRLQWLQJHUURULVFRQVLGHUHGWKHV\VWHPZLOOVXIIHUDQ DGGLWLRQDOKLJKHUSRZHUSHQDOW\DVDFRQVHTXHQFH                             Ϯϰ &KDSWHU)626\VWHP0RGHODQG6SHFLILFDWLRQV ±,QWURGXFWLRQ ,Q WKLV FKDSWHU WKH PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHO IRU WKH )62 OLQN LV GLVFXVVHG ,Q 6HF  WKH PDWKHPDWLFDOPRGHOGHVFULEHVWKHHIIHFWRIWKHVFDWWHULQJGXHWRGLIIHUHQWZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV /LQN EXGJHW DQDO\VLV LV SUHVHQWHG LQ 6HF  $ PDWKHPDWLFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ IRU QRLVH DQG %(5 FDOFXODWLRQV LV SUHVHQWHG LQ 6HF  6HFWLRQ  GLVFXVVHV WKH HIIHFW RI DWPRVSKHULF WXUEXOHQFHRQWKHWUDQVPLWWLQJRSWLFDOVLJQDOV)62OLQNVSHFVDQGSDUDPHWHUVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ 6HF ±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Į LV DWPRVSKHULF DWWHQXDWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWDQG=LVWKHOLQNUDQJHWKHQ 2Ë L  2Í ‡š’:FÙ<;  7KH FRHIILFLHQW RI DWPRVSKHULF DWWHQXDWLRQ Į GHSHQGV RQ WKH W\SH RI VFDWWHULQJ VLJQDO ZDYHOHQJWKVL]HRIWKHSDUWLFOHVRIWKHDWPRVSKHUHDQGWKHOLQNYLVLELOLW\>@,QWKHOLQNZH   Ϯϱ LQWURGXFHWKHDWPRVSKHULFDWWHQXDWLRQFRHIILFLHQWĮDVFDOFXODWHGWKURXJK.LP¶VPRGHO> @ Ù L  uä{s¤8 :ã¤wwrJI;?ä    9LVWKHYLVLELOLW\DQGTLVWKHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHVFDWWHULQJSDUWLFOHV7KHDWWHQXDWLRQRI WKHWUDQVPLWWHGVLJQDOFDQEHHVWLPDWHGIURPWKHSUHYLRXVPRGHOWRYDULRXVZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV >@XVLQJ M IRUYLVLELOLW\ 8!NP   IRUYLVLELOLW\ NP8NP   8IRUYLVLELOLW\ NP8NP     8IRUYLVLELOLW\ NP8NP   IRUYLVLELOLW\ 8NP  ±/LQN%XGJHW $WPRVSKHULF DWWHQXDWLRQ IUHH VSDFH SDWK ORVV WUDQVPLWWHU DQG UHFHLYHU JDLQ W\SHV RI GHWHFWRUV HIILFLHQFLHV DQG SRLQWLQJ ORVV IDFWRUV DUH FRQVLGHUHG WKH PDLQ IDFWRUV WKDW KLJKO\ DIIHFW OLQN EXGJHW FDOFXODWLRQV)ULLVWUDQVPLVVLRQIRUPXODLVLQWURGXFLQJWKHOLQNEXGJHWPRGHO>@>@E\ 2Ë L  2Í ßÍ ßË :¤8Ó;6 )Í )Ë . Í .Ë ATL:FÙ<;    7KH IUHH VSDFH SDWK ORVV > @ LV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ WKH IDFWRU :¤8Ó;6ZKHUH Ȝ LV WKH VLJQDO ZDYHOHQJWKȘ7DQGȘ5DUHWUDQVPLWWHUDQGUHFHLYHUHIILFLHQFLHV*7DQG*5DUHWKHWUDQVPLWWHU DQGUHFHLYHUJDLQ:KHQWKHWUDQVPLWWHULVDVVXPHGWREHXQLIRUPO\LOOXPLQDWHGIURPDFLUFOH DSHUWXUH WKH RXW EHDP FURVV VHFWLRQ LV FRQVLGHUHG DV D *DXVVLDQ EHDP DQG WKH UHFHLYHU DQWHQQDLVDFLUFXODUDSHUWXUH>@7KHWUDQVPLWWHUDQGUHFHLYHUJDLQH[SUHVVLRQVDUHJLYHQ >@E\   )Í L  :è&Í ¤ã;6  )Í L  :è&Í ¤ã;6    ZKHUH'7DQG'5DUHWKHWUDQVPLWWHUDQGUHFHLYHUDSHUWXUHGLDPHWHUV$VVXPLQJ*DXVVLDQ EHDPWKHWUDQVPLWWHUDQGUHFHLYHUSRLQWLQJORVVIDFWRUVUHVSHFWLYHO\DUH/7DQG/5>@ . Í L ‡š’:F)Í :àÍ ;6 ;    Ϯϲ   .Ë L ‡š’:F)Ë :àË ;6 ;   ZKHUHș7DQGș5DUHWUDQVPLWWHUDQGUHFHLYHUSRLQWLQJHUURUV ±1RLVH0RGHODQG%(5(YDOXDWLRQ 2SWLFDO VLJQDO SRZHU DW WKH UHFHLYHU HQG 35 LV FRQYHUWHG LQWR HOHFWULFDO FXUUHQW WKURXJK WKH SKRWRGHWHFWRUV $3'3,1 >@ 7KHUPDOQRLVHVKRWQRLVHDQGEDFNJURXQGQRLVHDUHWKHPDLQQRLVHPHFKDQLVPVWKDWOHDGWR FXUUHQWIOXFWXDWLRQVDQGQRQSUHFLVHELWGHWHFWLRQ>@>@>@2QO\HIIHFWRIWKHWKHUPDOQRLVH LVFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHSURSRVHGOLQNDQDO\VLV7KHWRWDOFXUUHQW,FRQVLVWVRIWZRFRPSRQHQWV,S DQGL7   + L  +É  E  E Í  ,3LVWKHDYHUDJHFXUUHQWZLWKRXWQRLVHHIIHFW5DQG35DUHUHVSRQVLYLW\DQGUHFHLYHGSRZHU UHVSHFWLYHO\ZKHUH   +ã L 42Ë  L7LVWKHWKHUPDOQRLVHFXUUHQWIOXFWXDWLRQWKDWLVPRGHOHGDVDVWDWLRQDU\*DXVVLDQUDQGRP SURFHVVZLWKYDULDQFHı7>@ êÍ 6 L  :vG6¤4Å ;¿B   NLV%ROW]PDQQFRQVWDQW7LVDEVROXWHWHPSHUDWXUH5/LVWKHUHFHLYHUORDGUHVLVWDQFHDQG¨ILV WKHHIIHFWLYHQRLVHEDQGZLGWK7KHWRWDOYDULDQFHRIFXUUHQWIOXFWXDWLRQVıLV>@   ¿+ L + F +É    ê 6 L  êÍ 6  %(5LVDFULWHULRQWRHYDOXDWHDSHUIRUPDQFHRIDGLJLWDOV\VWHPZKHUHLWLVWKHSUREDELOLW\RI QRQSUHFLVLRQGHFLVLRQIRUWKHUHFHLYHGELWVWUHDP$V2:r¤s;LVWKHSUREDELOLW\RIGHFLGLQJ ZKHQLVUHFHLYHGDQG2:s¤r;LVWKHSUREDELOLW\RIGHFLGLQJZKHQLVUHFHLYHGWKHQ $'4 L  6 >2:r¤s; E 2:s¤r;? 5    7KH%(5H[SUHVVLRQIRU$3'DQG3,1LVGHULYHGDVIROORZVIRU4!>@ $'4 L  ANB? @ A  N 6 5 Ê ¾6    Ϯϳ Øëã:?Ê. ¤6; Ê ¾6     3 L Â- ?Â, - >,    ,DQG,RDUHWKHDYHUDJHFXUUHQWIRUDQGELWVUHVSHFWLYHO\ıDQGıRDUHWKHYDULDQFHVZLWK HTXDOYDOXH ±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ç L  +ë +ì    7KHJDPPDJDPPDPRGHOIRUWKHSGIRIUHFHLYHGLUUDGLDQFHIOXFWXDWLRQZKLFKLVEDVHGRQWKH DVVXPSWLRQWKDWERWKWKHODUJHDQGVPDOOVFDOHHIIHFWVDUHJRYHUQHGE\WKHJDPPDGLVWULEXWLRQ LVWKHUHIRUHGHULYHGDV>@ L:+ç ; L   6: ;:6;¤.  {: ;{: ; +ç @ 6 A?5 .  Û L  H‡š’ F  - ? kt¥ÛÚ+ç o+ç P r   räv{êå 6  G F sI :s E sässêå 56¤9 ;;¤:     Ú L  H‡š’ F   räwsêå 6  G F sI :s E räx{êå 56¤9 ;9¤: Ϯϴ    ZKHUH Á:ä ä ; LV WKH JDPPD IXQFWLRQ DQG - ? :ä ä ; LV WKH PRGLILHG %HVVHO IXQFWLRQ RI VHFRQG NLQG  ϭͬɶ ĂŶĚ ϭͬɴ DUH WKH YDULDQFHV RI WKH ODUJH DQG VPDOO VFDOH HGGLHV UHVSHFWLYHO\ LI WKH RSWLFDOUDGLDWLRQLVDVVXPHGDVDSODQHZDYH êå 6  LVWKHU\WRYYDULDQFHZKLFKLVJLYHQE\> @ êå 6 L sätu?á 6 - ;¤: < 55¤:   ZKHUH?J t LVDWPRVSKHULFUHIUDFWLYHLQGH[SDUDPHWHU͕LVWKHOLQNGLVWDQFHDQG<LVWKHRSWLFDO ZDYHQXPEHUZKLFKJLYHQE\WKHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQ - L  tè¤ã   tŚĞƌĞʄŝƐƚŚĞƚƌĂŶƐŵŝƚƚŝŶŐǁĂǀĞůĞŶŐƚŚ͘ ±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Ϯϵ         3DUDPHWHU 7UDQVPLVVLRQ5DWH /LQN'LVWDQFH 2SWLFDO7UDQVPLWWHG 3RZHU 7UDQVPLWWHUDQG5HFHLYHU $SHUWXUHV 7UDQVPLWWHUDQG5HFHLYHU 2SWLFDO(IILFLHQF\ $3'5HVSRQVLYLW\ 3,15HVSRQVLYLW\ /RDG5HVLVWDQFH /RZ3DVV)LOWHU&XWRII )UHTXHQF\ DWUHFHLYHU  6\PERO %LWUDWH = 15= 3 7 5= 9DOXH *ESV NP G%P G%P '7'5 FP Ș7Ș5  5 5 5/ $: $: 3  [%LWUDWH 15=5= *DXVVLDQ %(5 WHFKQLTXH LV XVHG LQ %(5 HVWLPDWLRQ LQ WKH OLQN DQDO\VLV >@ 7KH UHFHLYHUWKUHVKROGSRZHUDQGVHQVLWLYLW\DUHLQWKHUDQJHRIG%PIRU3,1WRG%PIRU $3'>@7KHUHDUHGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIQRLVHDIIHFWWKH%(5OHYHOVRIWKH)62OLQNOLNH WKHUPDODQGVKRWQRLVH,QWKLVZRUNRQO\WKHUPDOQRLVHLVFRQVLGHUHG>@             ϯϬ &KDSWHU5HVXOWVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ ±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±3HUIRUPDQFH(YDOXDWLRQRI)62/LQN8QGHU15=5=/LQH&RGHV $WPRVSKHULF$WWHQXDWLRQDQG5HFHLYHU7\SHVLQ3UHVHQFHRI3RLQWLQJ (UURUV ±,QWURGXFWLRQ 7KHSURSRVHG)62OLQNLVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJ/LQNSHUIRUPDQFHLVHYDOXDWHGIRUPRGXODWLRQ OLQHFRGHV 15=5= DQGZDYHOHQJWKV QPQPDQGQP 7KLVLVPRGHOHGLQ WKH WUDQVPLWWHU EORFN GLDJUDP 7KH GHVLJQHG OLQN LV HYDOXDWHG XQGHU GLIIHUHQW ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQVLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIIUHHVSDFHSDWKORVV)LQDOO\$3'DQG3,1SKRWRGHWHFWRUVDUH XVHGWRWHVWWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHSURSRVHGOLQN2SWLFDOVSHFWUXPDQDO\]HUVRSWLFDOSRZHU   ϯϭ PHWHUVDQG%(5DQDO\]HUDUHXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHWUDQVPLWWHGUHFHLYHGVLJQDOSRZHUOHYHOV DQGWKHV\VWHP%(5  )LJXUH)62OLQNVWUXFWXUH 2SWLV\VWHPIURPRSWLZDYH,QFLVXVHGWR FRQVWUXFWWKHSUHVHQWHG)62OLQNDQGIRUWKH OLQN DQDO\VLV 0DWODE  LV XVHG LQ WKH DWPRVSKHULF ORVV IDFWRUV FDOFXODWLRQV DQG WKH ORVV IDFWRUVDUHIHGLQWRWKHFRQVWUXFWHGOLQNLQWKH2SWLV\VWHP͘ 7KHREWDLQHGUHVXOWVZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGDVIROORZVWKHHIIHFWRIYDULRXVDWPRVSKHULFFRQGLWLRQV RQ VLJQDO SRZHU DW GLIIHUHQW ZDYHOHQJWKV LV SUHVHQWHGLQ6HF7KHSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKH )62OLQNZLWKGLIIHUHQWZDYHOHQJWKVDQGOLQNVSHFVLVGLVFXVVHGLQ6HFWLRQVDQG ,Q6HFDFRPSUHKHQVLYHSHUIRUPDQFHHYDOXDWLRQIRUWKHSURSRVHG)62V\VWHPLV SUHVHQWHG͘ ±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ϯϮ YDULHVZLWKGLIIHUHQWZDYHOHQJWKVZKHUHWKHODUJHVWDWWHQXDWLRQLVREVHUYHGIRUQP 7KH UHVXOWVREWDLQHGDSSOLHVNLP¶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Ȝ QP Ȝ QP $WWHQXDWLRQ G%NP  $WWHQXDWLRQ G%NP          Ȝ QP $WWHQXDWLRQ G%NP      ±3HUIRUPDQFH$QDO\VLVIRU)62/LQNDWQP2SHUDWLRQ 3HUIRUPDQFHHYDOXDWLRQ RIWKHSURSRVHGOLQNDW QPZLWK15=5=OLQHFRGHVDQG$3' 3,1UHFHLYHUVXQGHUYDULRXVZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVLVDQDO\]HGLQWKLVVHFWLRQ7KHDQDO\VLVDUH SHUIRUPHGDQGVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOHVKRZVWKHPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURUHYDOXDWHGIRUWKH GHVLJQHGOLQNWRWDUJHWD%(5,QWKLVVHFWLRQDQGIROORZLQJVHFWLRQVWRSURYLGHDFOHDU YLVLRQ RQ WKH V\VWHP SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH )62 OLQN D VSHFLILF ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQ ZLWK DQ   ϯϯ RSHUDWLQJ ZDYHOHQJWK ZLOO EH DQDO\]HG XQGHU SURSRVHG W\SHV RI PRGXODWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV DQG UHFHLYHUW\SHV,QWKLVVHFWLRQFOHDUDLUZLWK QPZLOOEHVWXGLHG 7DEOH 0D[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURUVDQGUHFHLYHGVLJQDOSRZHUDWGLIIHUHQWZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVIRU15=5=OLQH FRGHVDQG$3'3,1UHFHLYHUVȜ QP 0RGXODWLRQ 7HFKQLTXH 5HFHLYHU W\SH &OHDUDLU +D]H /LJKWIRJ 0RGHUDWH IRJ 15= 5= $3' 3,1 $3' 5HFHLYHG 5HFHLYHG 0D[ 0D[ SRZHU SRLQWLQJ SRZHU SRLQWLQJ G%P HUURU G%P HUURU —UDG —UDG                 0D[ SRLQWLQJ HUURU —UDG     3,1 0D[ 5HFHLYHG 5HFHLYHG SRZHU SRLQWLQJ SRZHU HUURU G%P  G%P —UDG             )RU FOHDU DLU ZLWK $3' UHFHLYHU WKH PD[LPXP SRLQWLQJ HUURU IRU 15=$3' LV  —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—UDG FRPPRQLQEHKDYLRUWRDOOZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV 15=3,1H[SRVHGWROHVV DWWHQXDWLRQ WKDQ 5=3,1 ZKLOH  %(5 LV DFKLHYHG IRU 15=3,1 DQG  IRU 5=3,1 6LPLODU FRQFOXVLRQ DV $3' UHFHLYHU FDVH  FDQ EH FDUULHG RXW IRU DQ\ ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQV DW QPVKRZLQJWKDW15=LVEHWWHUWKDQ5= 7KHDQDO\VLVLQWKLVVHFWLRQSURYLGHVWKDW$3'UHFHLYHUDOORZVODUJHUSRLQWLQJ HUURUWKDQ3,1 7KLVLVPDLQO\EHFDXVHRIWKH $3'KLJKHUUDQJHRISRVVLEOHUHFHLYHGSRZHUOHYHOVDVDUHVXOW RILWVSK\VLFDOVSHFLILFDWLRQV GDUNFXUUHQWUHVSRQVLYLW\JDLQDQGWKHUPDOQRLVH> @  ϯϰ  $VWKHZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVJHWZRUVHWKHORVVIDFWRURIDWPRVSKHULFDWWHQXDWLRQLQFUHDVHV7KLV LVUHIOHFWHGRQWKHPD[LPXPDOORZDEOHSRLQWLQJHUURULQRUGHUWRNHHSWKH%(5ORZHUWKDQ   )RUFOHDUMXVWLILFDWLRQ)LJ D DQG E VKRZVLQSXWVLJQDODWWUDQVPLWWHURIWKHSURSRVHG V\VWHP IRU 15= DQG 5= OLQH FRGHV UHVSHFWLYHO\ DW  QP 7KHVH WUDQVPLWWHG VLJQDOV DUH XVHGZLWKWKHVDPHSRZHUOHYHOPHQWLRQHGLQ7DEOHIRUDOOWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQVFKDQJLQJ RQO\WKHRSHUDWLQJZDYHOHQJWK7KH15=$3'FDVHSUHVHQWVWKHEHVWSHUIRUPDQFHZKHUH5= 3,1FDVHSUHVHQWVWKHZRUVWSHUIRUPDQFHLQWKHQPOLQNLQFOHDUDLU  D   E  )LJXUH7UDQVPLWWHGVLJQDO9VZDYHOHQJWKDWȜ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ϯϱ  D  E )LJXUH 5HFHLYHGSRZHU9VZDYHOHQJWKLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIFOHDUDLUDWȜ QP D 15=$3' E 5=3,1  ± 3HUIRUPDQFH$QDO\VLVIRU)62/LQN DWQP2SHUDWLRQ 3HUIRUPDQFHHYDOXDWLRQ RIWKHSURSRVHGOLQNDWQPZLWK15=5=OLQHFRGHVDQG$3' 3,1UHFHLYHUVXQGHUYDULRXVZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVLV DQDO\]HGLQWKLVVHFWLRQ7DEOHVKRZV WKHPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURUHYDOXDWHGIRUWKHGHVLJQHGOLQNWRWDUJHWD%(5 7DEOH 0D[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURUVDQGUHFHLYHGVLJQDOSRZHUDWGLIIHUHQWZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVIRU15=5=OLQH FRGHVDQG$3'3,1UHFHLYHUVȜ QP 0RGXODWLRQ 7HFKQLTXH 5HFHLYHU 7\SH &OHDUDLU +D]H /LJKWIRJ 0RGHUDWH IRJ 15= 5= $3' 0D[ SRLQWLQJ HUURU —UDG     3,1 $3'             ϯϲ  3,1 5HFHLYHG 0D[ 5HFHLYHG 0D[ 5HFHLYHG 0D[ SRZHU SRLQWLQJ SRZHU SRLQWLQJ SRZHU SRLQWLQJ G%P HUURU G%P HUURU G%P  HUURU —UDG —UDG —UDG             5HFHLYHG SRZHU G%P     ,QWKLVVHFWLRQWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIQPOLQNLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIKD]HLVDQDO\]HG/LNHWKH SHUYLRXVVHFWLRQEHKDYLRURIWKHGHVLJQHGOLQNIRUWKHFKRVHQZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQ KD]HLQWKLV VHFWLRQ LVVLPLODUIRUUHPDLQLQJZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV ,QKD]HDQG$3'UHFHLYHUWKHPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURUIRU15=$3'DQG5=$3'LV —UDG$VLPLODUPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURULVREVHUYHGIRUERWK15=$3'DQG5=$3'7KLV EHKDYLRU LV VKDUHG WKURXJK DOO ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQV SURYLGLQJ WKH 15=$3' PRUH SRZHU HIILFLHQW)RUKD]H%(5LVREVHUYHGIRU15=$3'DQGIRU5=$3'15=$3'LV DOVREHWWHULQ%(5FDOFXODWLRQV,QKD]HDQG3,1UHFHLYHU—UDGLVWKHPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJ HUURU IRU 15=3,1 DQG  —UDG IRU 5=3,1 7KH UHFHLYHG SRZHU OHYHOV LQ DOO ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQVVKRZWKDW15=3,1LVEHWWHU%(5DQDO\VLV\LHOGVWKDW15=3,1DFKLHYHVEHWWHU %(5OHYHOVIRUDOOZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVDWQP ±3HUIRUPDQFH$QDO\VLVIRU)62/LQNDWQPRSHUDWLRQ 7KHDQDO\VLVGRQHIRUWKHSUHYLRXVWZRVHFWLRQVLVUHSHDWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJDQDO\VLVIRU QP$%(5LVWDUJHWHGWKURXJKPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURUDQGUHFHLYHGSRZHUVKRZQLQ 7DEOH 7DEOH0D[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURUVDQGUHFHLYHGVLJQDO¶VSRZHUDWGLIIHUHQWZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVIRU15=5= OLQHFRGHVDQG$3'3,1UHFHLYHUVȜ QP 0RGXODWLRQ 7HFKQLTXH 5HFHLYHU 7\SH   &OHDUDLU +D]H /LJKWIRJ 0RGHUDWH IRJ 15= 5= $3' 0D[ SRLQWLQJ HUURU —UDG      3,1 $3' 3,1 0D[ 5HFHLYHG 0D[ 5HFHLYHG 0D[ 5HFHLYHG SRLQWLQJ SRZHU SRZHU SRLQWLQJ SRZHU SRLQWLQJ HUURU G%P  HUURU G%P  HUURU G%P  —UDG  —UDG  —UDG                          5HFHLYHG SRZHU G%P      ,QWKLVVHFWLRQPRGHUDWHIRJZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQIRUQPLVDQDO\]HG)RU$3'UHFHLYHUVLQ SUHVHQFHRIPRGHUDWHIRJ15=$3'PD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURULV—UDGZKHUH5=$3' PD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURULV—UDG5=$3'UHFHLYHGVLJQDOLVPRUHDWWHQXDWHGWKDQ15=   ϯϳ $3'LQDOOZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV)RUPRGHUDWHIRJ15=$3'DQG5=$3'KDYH%(5OHYHORI  3HUIRUPDQFHDQDO\VLVIRU3,1VKRZVLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIPRGHUDWHIRJWKHPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJ HUURU IRU 15=3,1 DQG 5=3,1 LV  —UDG DQG  —UDG UHVSHFWLYHO\ ,Q DOO ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQV15=3,1UHFHLYHGVLJQDOSRZHUOHYHOVLVEHWWHUWKDQ5=3,1)RUPRGHUDWHIRJ 15=3,1DQG5=3,1DFKLHYHD%(5RI ±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ϯϴ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¶ VSHFV PHQWLRQHGLQ6HF7KLVUHVXOWLVFRQFOXGHGWKURXJKPRQLWRULQJSRLQWLQJHUURUDOORZDQFH ±(IIHFWVRI'LIIHUHQW:HDWKHU3KHQRPHQD 6FDWWHULQJDQG7XUEXOHQFH  RQ)62/LQN3HUIRUPDQFHIRU15=$3'LQ3UHVHQFHRI3RLQWLQJ(UURUVDW QPDQGQP2SHUDWLRQ ±,QWURGXFWLRQ ,Q WKLV VHFWLRQ WKH VDPH V\VWHP FRQILJXUDWLRQ VWDWHG LQ )LJ  LV XVHG LQ WKH IROORZLQJ HYDOXDWLRQDQGGLVFXVVLRQ&RPSDUHGWR6HFRQO\QPDQGQPDUHLQYHVWLJDWHG DV WKH V\VWHP SHUIRUPDQFH ZLWK VFDWWHULQJ RQO\  DW  ZDV QRW SURPLVLQJ 6\VWHP RSWLPL]DWLRQFDUULHGLQ6HFDQGSUHYLRXVOLWHUDWXUHOHDGWROLPLWWKHDQDO\VLVWR15=$3'   ϯϵ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±&OHDU$LU 5HIUDFWLYHLQGH[SDUDPHWHU&Q HY]?Û¤Ü      ±(IIHFWRI$WPRVSKHULF6FDWWHULQJDQG7XUEXOHQFHRQQP2SHUDWLRQ ,Q WKLV VHFWLRQ V\VWHP SURSRVHG LQ )LJXUH  LV WHVWHG IRU  QP RSHUDWLRQ (IIHFWV RI DWPRVSKHULF VFDWWHULQJ OHYHOV FOHDU DLUKD]HIRJ  WRJHWKHU ZLWK WXUEXOHQFH UHJLPHV VWURQJ PRGHUDWHZHDN DUHSUHVHQWHGLQGHSHQGHQWO\LQ)LJXUHVDQG   ϰϬ  &ŝŐXUH3RLQWLQJHUURUYHUVXVVLJQDOSRZHUIRUQPXQGHUFOHDUDLUDQGVWURQJWXUEXOHQFH )LJXUHVKRZVWKHHIIHFWRIWKHPMRLQWO\)RUDOOWKHIROORZLQJGLVFXVVLRQVWKHPD[LPXP DOORZDEOHSRLQWLQJHUURULVHYDOXDWHGDWWKHWKUHVKROG%(5RIWKDWLVYHU\VXLWDEOHIRU)62 OLQNGHVLJQ7KLVLVGRQHWRPDWFKFRQWULEXWLRQRIWKHSUHVHQWHGZRUN  )LJXUH3RLQWLQJHUURUYHUVXVVLJQDOSRZHUIRUQPXQGHUKD]HDQGPRGHUDWHWXUEXOHQFH   ϰϭ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ϰϮ ,Q RXU DQDO\VLV LW LV FRQVLGHUHG WKDW DW FOHDU DLU WKH OHYHO RI WXUEXOHQFH LV VWURQJ LQ KD]\ FRQGLWLRQVWKHOHYHORIWXUEXOHQFHLVPRGHUDWHDQGLQIRJZHDNWXUEXOHQFHFRXOGRFFXU )URPWKHGLVSOD\HGUHVXOWVLQFDVHRIFOHDUDLUZKHUHVWURQJWXUEXOHQFHRFFXUV)LJVKRZV WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH SURSRVHG )62 OLQN XQGHU WKH WZR SKHQRPHQD FOHDU DLU ± VWURQJ WXUEXOHQFH LQGHSHQGHQWO\,WLVFOHDUO\REVHUYHGWKDWDWDIL[HGYDOXHRISRLQWLQJHUURUWKH VLJQDOGHJUDGDWLRQLQFDVHRIVWURQJWXUEXOHQFHLVKLJKHUWKDQ FOHDUDLU ,QRUGHUWRPDLQWDLQ V\VWHP%(5LQWKHDFFHSWDEOHUDQJHRIWKHPD[LPXPDOORZDEOHSRLQWLQJHUURULQVWURQJ WXUEXOHQFH IRU WKH WUDQVPLWWHU DQG WKH UHFHLYHU LV  —UDG ZKHUH WKH PD[LPXP DOORZDEOH SRLQWLQJ HUURU LQ FOHDU DLU LV  —UDG &RPELQLQJ WKH VLJQDO GHJUDGDWLRQ DQG SRLQWLQJ HUURU RQH FDQ FRQFOXGH WKDW WKH OLQN SHUIRUPV EHWWHU LQ FOHDU DLU WKDQ LQ WKH FDVH RI WKH VWURQJ WXUEXOHQFH ,QFRQWUDVWWRWKHFDVHSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJWKHOLQNUHFHLYHGVLJQDOLVPRUHGHWHULRUDWHGLQWKH FDVHRIKD]HWKDQLQWKHFDVHRIPRGHUDWHWXUEXOHQFH)LJ0RUHHYLGHQFHFDQEHREVHUYHG ZKHQH[DPLQLQJWKHPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURUUHTXLUHGWRDFKLHYH%(59DOXHVDUHIRXQG WREH—UDGDQG—UDGIRUFDVHRIKD]HDQGPRGHUDWHWXUEXOHQFHUHVSHFWLYHO\ )LJXUHVKRZVWKDWLQWKHFDVHRIIRJDQGZHDNWXUEXOHQFHIRJKDVWKHKLJKHUHIIHFWRQWKH SHUIRUPDQFHRI)62OLQN7KHPD[LPXPDOORZDEOHSRLQWLQJHUURULQFDVHRIZHDNWXUEXOHQFH LV—UDGDQGLV—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—UDG)RUKD]HPRGHUDWH WXUEXOHQFH —UDGLV WKHPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURUDQG —UDGIRUIRJZHDNWXUEXOHQFH 5HVXOWVVKRZWKDWWKHHIIHFWRIIRJDQGZHDNWXUEXOHQFHMRLQWO\RQWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRI)62 OLQNLVWKHJUHDWHVW   ϰϯ ±(IIHFWRI$WPRVSKHULF6FDWWHULQJDQG7XUEXOHQFHRQQP2SHUDWLRQ 6LPLODUO\DVPHQWLRQHGLQ6HFLQWKLVVHFWLRQWKH)62OLQNSHUIRUPDQFHHYDOXDWLRQLV FDUULHG RXW IRU  QP )LJXUHV   DQG  UHSUHVHQW WKH LQGHSHQGHQW SHUIRUPDQFH HYDOXDWLRQ IRU VFDWWHULQJWXUEXOHQFH )LJ  UHSUHVHQWV WKH MRLQW HIIHFW RI WKH WZR SKHQRPHQD$OOILJXUHVDUHIXQFWLRQRISRLQWLQJHUURUDQGUHFHLYHGVLJQDOSRZHU  )LJXUH3RLQWLQJHUURUYHUVXVVLJQDOSRZHUIRUQPXQGHUFOHDUDLUDQGVWURQJWXUEXOHQFH   )LJXUH3RLQWLQJHUURUYHUVXVVLJQDOSRZHUIRUQPXQGHUKD]HDQGPRGHUDWHWXUEXOHQFH   ϰϰ  )LJXUH3RLQWLQJHUURUYHUVXVVLJQDOSRZHUIRUQPXQGHUIRJDQGZHDNWXUEXOHQFH $JDLQ FOHDU DLU ZLWK VWURQJ WXUEXOHQFH KD]H ZLWK PRGHUDWH WXUEXOHQFH DQG IRJ ZLWK ZHDN WXUEXOHQFH DUH WKH FRQILJXUDWLRQV XQGHU GLVFXVVLRQ )LQDOO\ DPRQJ DOO WKH IROORZLQJ GLVFXVVLRQV WKH PD[LPXP DOORZDEOH SRLQWLQJ HUURU LV HYDOXDWHG DW D WKUHVKROG %(5 RI   WKDWLVYHU\VXLWDEOHIRU)62OLQNGHVLJQ  )LJXUH3RLQWLQJHUURUYHUVXVVLJQDOSRZHUIRUQPXQGHUFOHDUDLUVWURQJWXUEXOHQFHKD]HPRGHUDWH WXUEXOHQFHDQGIRJZHDNWXUEXOHQFH   ϰϱ )LJXUHVKRZVWKHSRLQWLQJHUURUYHUVXVWKHVLJQDOSRZHUIRUFOHDUDLUDQGVWURQJWXUEXOHQFH LQGHSHQGHQWO\ 7KH PD[LPXP DOORZDEOH SRLQWLQJ HUURU LQ FDVH RI FOHDU DLU LV  —UDG DQG —UDGLQSUHVHQFHRIVWURQJWXUEXOHQFH:LWKUHVSHFWWRWKHUHFHLYHGVLJQDOVSRZHUFOHDU DLU VKRZV D EHWWHU UHFHLYHG SRZHU OHYHOV FRPSDUHG WR VWURQJ WXUEXOHQFH 7KLV REVHUYDWLRQ WRJHWKHUZLWKWKDWIRUSRLQWLQJHUURULQGLFDWHVEHWWHUSHUIRUPDQFHIRU)62OLQNLQFDVHRIFOHDU DLU ,QFDVHRIKD]HDQGPRGHUDWHWXUEXOHQFHWKHPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURULV—UDGDQG —UDGUHVSHFWLYHO\DVVKRZQLQ)LJ0RGHUDWHWXUEXOHQFHDFKLHYHVEHWWHUUHFHLYHGSRZHU OHYHOV 7KHPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURULQWKHIRJJ\ZHDNWXUEXOHQFHHQYLURQPHQWLV—UDGIRUIRJ DQG  —UDG IRU ZHDN WXUEXOHQFH 2EVHUYLQJ )LJ  LW LV FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH UHFHLYHG SRZHUOHYHOVIRUZHDNWXUEXOHQFHDUHPXFKEHWWHUWKDQIRJ 7KH SHUHYLRXV DQDO\VLV HYDOXDWHG WKH OLQN SHUIRUPDQFH IRU  QP XQGHU GLIIHUHQW HQYLURPHQWDOSKHQRPHQDLQGHSHQGHQWDO\)LJXUHSUHVHQWVWKHVLJQDOSRZHUOHYHOYHUVXV SRLQWLQJHUURUIRUFRPELQHGSKHQRPHQD ,QWKHFDVHRIFOHDUDLUVWURQJWXUEXOHQFHWKHPD[LPXPDOORZDEOHSRLQWLQJHUURUUHTXLUHGWR PDLQWDLQ WKH %(5 LQ WKH )62 V\VWHP DFFHSWDEOH OHYHO LV  —UDG )RU KD]HPRGHUDWH WXUEXOHQFH—UDGLVWKHPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURUDQG—UDGIRUIRJZHDNWXUEXOHQFH 5HVXOWVVKRZWKDWWKHFRPELQDWLRQRIIRJDQGZHDNWXUEXOHQFHKLJKO\DIIHFWVWKHSHUIRUPDQFH RIWKH)62OLQNODUJHUWKDQDQ\RIWKHMRLQWDOWHUQDWLYHZHDWKHUSKHQRPHQD ±&RPSUHKHQVLYH6WXG\RQWKH3HUIRUPDQFHRIQPDQGQP8QGHU 'LIIHUHQW:HDWKHU3KHQRPHQD $WPRVSKHULF6FDWWHULQJDQG7XUEXOHQFH  ,V WKLV VHFWLRQ D FRPSDUVLRQ EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW )62 FKDQQHO FRQGLWLRQV DQG ZDYHOHQJWKV FRYHUHG LQ 6HFWLRQV  DQG  LV SUHVHQWHG 7KH FRPSDULVRQ VWDUWV WR FRPSDUH GLIIHUHQW RSHDUDWLRQ ZHDUWKHU SKHQRPLQD DW D VSHFLILF ZDYHOHQJWK WKHQ WKH V\VWHP SHUIRUPDQFH ZLWK WKHWZRZDYHOHJWKVLVFRPSDUHG   ϰϲ )RUQPWKH)62OLQNLVVLPXODWHGXQGHUGLIIHUHQWSKHQRPHQDLQGHSHQGDQWO\DQGMRLQWO\ 5HVXOWV VKRZ WKDW LI WKH OLQN LV FRQVLGHUHG WR SHUIRUP XQGHU RQH SKHQRPHQD RQO\ WKH OLQN SHUIRUPVEHWWHU LHKLJKHUUHFLYHGSRZHUIRUDIL[HGSRLQWLQJHUURU RU LHKLJKHUSRLQWLQJ HUURU ZLWK IL[HG UHFLYHG SRZHUIL[HG %(5  LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI DQ\ WXUEXOHQFH W\SH WKDQ DQ\ W\SHRIDWPRVSKHULFFRQGLWLRQVH[FHSWFOHDUDLU 7KHRSWLPXPV\VWHPSHUIRUPDQFHLVREVHUYHGZLWKFOHDUDLUZKHUHWKHPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJ UHTXLUHG WR DFKLYH WKH WDUJHW %(5 RI   LV  —UDG $ UHPDUNDEOH V\VWHP GHJUHGDWLRQ LV QRWHGZLWKIRJDQGPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURURI—UDGIRUWKHVDPH%(5OHYHO &RPELQLQJ GLIIHUHQW ZHDWKHU SKHQRPHQD FOHDU DLUVWURQJ WXUEXOHQFH KD]HPRGHUDWH WXUEXOHQFHIRJZHDNWXUEXOHQFH VKRZWKDWWKHOLQNUHPDUNHGEHVWREVHUYHGSHUIRUPDQFHLQ WKHSUHVHQFHRIFOHDUDLUVWURQJWXUEXOHQFHZKHUHWKHPD[LPXPSRLWQLQJHUURULV—UDG DQGZRUVWSHUIRUPDQFHLQFDVHRIIRJZHDNWXUEXOHQFHDFKLHYLQJPD[LPXPSRLQWLQJHUURURI —UDGIRU%(5RI )RUQPWKURXJK/LQNHYDOXDWLRQDVLPLODUEHKDYLRXUWRWKDWRIQPRSHUDWLRQXQGHU LQGHSHQGHQWSKRQRPHQD $WPRVSKHULFVFDWWHULQJ7XUEXOHQFH LVQRWHG7KHFKDQJHDSSHDUV RQWKHOHYHORIWKHPD[LPXPDOORZDEHOSRLQWLQJHUURUUHTXLUHGWRDYKLYHDWDUJHW%(5   RUWKHOHYHORIWKHUHFLYHGVLJQDOSRZHUIRUDIL[HGSRLQWLQJHUURU &OHDU DLU DFKLHYHV WKH PD[LPXP DOORZDEOH SRLQWLQJ HUURU RI  —UDG )RJJ\ HQYLURPHQW VKRZV WKH ORZHVW SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH )62 OLQN DKFLHYLQJ SRLQWLQJ HUURU RI  —UDG 7KLV OHDGV WR  QP RSHUDWLRQ XQGHU VLQJOH ZHDWKHU SKHQRPHQD $WPRVSKHULF VFDWWHULQJ RU 7XUEXOHQFH  LV EHWWHU WKDQ  QP RSHUDWLRQ XQGHU VDPH FRQGLWLRQ VLQJOH ZHDWKHU SKHQRPHQRQ  $ VLPLODU EHKDYLRXU WR WKDW REVHUYHG IRU  QP LV QRWHG IRU  QP MRLQW SKHQRPHQD RSUWDWLRQ 7KH GLIIHUHQFHV DULVH ZLWK WKH OHYHOV RI SRLQWLQJ HUURU DQG UHFLYHG SRZHU XQGHU FRGLWLRQVLQGLFDWHGSULYLRXVO\ )RUQPMRLQWZHDWKHUSKHQRPHQDRSHUDWLRQFOHDUDLUVWURQJWXUEXOHQFHDFKLYHVRSWLPXP RSHUDWLRQZLWKSRLQWLQJHUURURI—UDGZKLOHWKHORZHVWSHUIRUPDQFHLVQRWHGLQWKHFDVH RIIRJZHDNWXUEXOHQFHZLWKSRLQWLQJHUURURI—UDG   ϰϳ 7DEOHVDQGVXPHUL]HWKHPD[LPXPDOORZDEOHSRLQWLQJHUURUDWQPDQGQP RSHUDWLRQZLWKWKHLUFRUUHVSRQGLQJUHFHLYHGVLJQDOSRZHUDOODWWKHWDUJWHG%(5RI 7DEOH0D[LPXPDOORZDEOHSRLQWLQJHUURUDWGLIIHUHQWDWPRVSKHULFSKHQRPHQDIRUQP $WPRVSKHULF 3KHQRPHQRQ  &OHDUDLU +D]H )RJ :HDN7XUEXOHQFH 0RGHUDWH7XUEXOHQFH 6WURQJ7XUEXOHQFH &OHDU$LU6WURQJ 7XUEXOHQFH +D]H0RGHUDWH 7XUEXOHQFH )RJ:HDN7XUEXOHQFH 0D[DOORZDEOH SRLQWLQJHUURU —UDG         5HFHLYHG3RZHU G%P             7DEOH0D[LPXPDOORZDEOHSRLQWLQJHUURUDWGLIIHUHQWDWPRVSKHULFSKHQRPHQDIRUQP $WPRVSKHULF 3KHQRPHQRQ  &OHDUDLU +D]H )RJ :HDN7XUEXOHQFH 0RGHUDWH7XUEXOHQFH 6WURQJ7XUEXOHQFH &OHDU$LU6WURQJ 7XUEXOHQFH +D]H0RGHUDWH 7XUEXOHQFH )RJ:HDN7XUEXOHQFH 0D[DOORZDEOH SRLQWLQJHUURU —UDG         5HFHLYHG3RZHU G%P           ϰϴ        &KDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQDQG)XWXUH:RUN ±&RQFOXVLRQ ,Q WKH SUHVHQW ZRUN WKH SHUIRUPDQFH HYDOXDWLRQ RI )62 FRPPXQLFDWLRQ V\VWHPV XQGHU GLIIHUHQWHQYLURQPHQWDOSKHQRPHQD $WPRVSKHULFFRQGLWLRQVDQG7XUEXOHQFH LQWKHSUHVHQFH RISRLQWLQJHUURUVLVFDUULHGRXW)URPWKHREWDLQHGUHVXOWVDQGGLVFXVVLRQRQHFDQSRLQWRXW WKHIROORZLQJFRQFOXVLRQV  )62 V\VWHPV SHUIRUPDQFH GHSHQGV RQ YDULRXV HQYLURQPHQWDO LQGXVWULDO DQG FRPPHUFLDOIDFWRUVDQGWUDGHRIIV  )RUWKHWUDQVPLWWHUHYDOXDWLRQRIWZRWUDQVPLWWLQJOLQHFRGHV 15=5= OHDGVWRWKDW LQ VLPSOH ,0'' WHFKQLTXH 15= OLQH FRGH LV SUHIHUUHG GXH LWV KLJKHU WUDQVPLWWLQJ SRZHU  ,QYHVWLJDWLQJWKUHHFRPPHUFLDOO\WUDQVPLWWLQJZDYHOHQJWKV QPQPDQG QP VKRZHGWKDWQPKDVDVXSHULRUSHUIRUPDQFHXQGHUGLIIHUHQWHQYLURQPHQWDO SKHQRPHQDFRPSDUHGWRWKHRWKHUWZRZDYHOHQJWKV  (QYLURQPHQWDO SKHQRPHQD KDYH D JUHDW HIIHFW RQ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI )62 V\VWHPV DWPRVSKHULFZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVDQGWXUEXOHQFH HIIHFWV ZHUH HYDOXDWHGLQGHSHQGHQWO\ DQGMRLQWO\,QGHSHQGHQWO\IRJ LQQPQPDQGQPRSHUDWLRQ VKRZHGD JUHDW HIIHFW RQ WKH VLJQDO¶V SRZHU OHYHO DQG PD[LPXP DOORZDEOH SRLQWLQJ HUURU -RLQWO\ IRJZHDN WXUEXOHQFH LQ  QP DQG  QP RSHUDWLRQ  DPRQJ DOO WKH HYDOXDWHG MRLQW SKHQRPHQD VKRZHG WKH KLJKHVW HIIHFW RQ VLJQDO SRZHU OHYHO DQG PD[LPXPDOORZDEOHSRLQWLQJHUURU  3HUIHFWDOLJQPHQWEHWZHHQ)62WUDQVPLWWHUVDQGUHFHLYHUVLVDKLJKO\UHFRPPHQGHGDV DVPDOOOHYHORISRLQWLQJHUURU UDQJHRIIHZJUDGLDQV FRXOGOHDGWROLQNIDLOXUH %(5 EHORZ   $3'UHFHLYHUVVKRZDEHWWHUSHUIRUPDQFHWKDQ3,1DVWKHUDQJHVHQVLWLYLW\RI$3'  G%P LVEHWWHUWKDQ3,1 G%P    ϰϵ ±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ϱϬ 5HIHUHQFHV >@55,QLJXH]60,GUXVDQG=6XQ2SWLFDO:LUHOHVV&RPPXQLFDWLRQV,5IRU:LUHOHVV &RQQHFWLYLW\%RFD5DWRQ$XHUEDFK3XEOLFDWLRQV >@6+UDQLORYLF:LUHOHVV2SWLFDO&RPPXQLFDWLRQ6\VWHPV%RVWRQ6SULQJHU6FLHQFH >@= :DQJ :' =KRQJ 6 )X DQG & /LQ ³3HUIRUPDQFH &RPSDULVRQ RI 'LIIHUHQW 0RGXODWLRQ )RUPDWV 2YHU )UHH6SDFH 2SWLFDO )62  7XUEXOHQFH /LQNV :LWK 6SDFH 'LYHUVLW\ 5HFHSWLRQ 7HFKQLTXH´ ,((( 3KRWRQLFV -RXUQDO YRO QR  SS ± 'HFHPEHU >@65DMEKDQGDUL=*KDVVHPORR\-3HUH]+/H0LQK0,MD] (/HLWJHE*.DQGXV DQG 9.YLFHUD ³2Q 7KH 6WXG\ RI 7KH )62 /LQN 3HUIRUPDQFH 8QGHU &RQWUROOHG 7XUEXOHQFH DQG )RJ $WPRVSKHULF &RQGLWLRQV´ WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ 7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV&RQ7(/*UD]$XVWULDSS-XQH >@6$UQRQ2SWLFDO:LUHOHVV&RPPXQLFDWLRQV(QF\FORSHGLDRI2SWLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ >@+0DQRUDQG6$UQRQ³3HUIRUPDQFHRIDQ2SWLFDO:LUHOHVV&RPPXQLFDWLRQ6\VWHPDV D)XQFWLRQRI:DYHOHQJWK´$SSO2SWYROQRSS-XO\ >@; /LX ³)UHH6SDFH 2SWLFV 2SWLPL]DWLRQ 0RGHOV IRU %XLOGLQJ 6ZD\ DQG $WPRVSKHULF ,QWHUIHUHQFH 8VLQJ 9DULDEOH :DYHOHQJWK´ ,((( 7UDQV RQ &RPPXQ YRO  QR  SS )HEUXDU\ >@' . %RUDK DQG ' * 9RHO] ³3RLQWLQJ (UURU (IIHFWV RQ )UHH6SDFH 2SWLFDO &RPPXQLFDWLRQ /LQNV LQ 7KH 3UHVHQFH RI $WPRVSKHULF 7XUEXOHQFH´ - /LJKWZDYH 7HFKQROYROQRSS±6HSWHPEHU >@+*6DQGDOLGLV7$7VLIWVLV*..DUDJLDQQLGLVDQG08\VDO³%(53HUIRUPDQFHRI )62 /LQNV RYHU 6WURQJ $WPRVSKHULF 7XUEXOHQFH &KDQQHOV ZLWK 3RLQWLQJ (UURUV´ ,((( &RPPXQ/HWWYROQRSS±-DQXDU\ >@,,.LP%0F$UWKXUDQG(.RUHYDDU³&RPSDULVRQRI/DVHU%HDP3URSDJDWLRQDW QPDQGQPLQ)RJDQG+D]HIRU2SWLFDO:LUHOHVV&RPPXQLFDWLRQV´3URFHHGLQJRI 63,(SS)HEUXDU\ >@0 6 $ZDQ 0DU]XNL ( /HLWJHE ) 1DGHHP 0 6 .KDQ DQG & &DSVRQL ³:HDWKHU (IIHFWV ,PSDFWRQ7KH2SWLFDO3XOVH3URSDJDWLRQLQ)UHH6SDFH´ 3URFHHGLQJRIWKHWK 9HKLFXODU7HFKQRORJ\&RQIHUHQFH 97& %DUFHORQDSS$SULO   ϱϭ >@0 6 $ZDQ 0DU]XNL ( /HLWJHE ) 1DGHHP 0 6 .KDQ DQG & &DSVRQL ³)RJ $WWHQXDWLRQ 'HSHQGHQFH RQ $WPRVSKHULF 9LVLELOLW\ DW 7ZR :DYHOHQJWKV IRU )62 /LQN 3ODQQLQJ´ /RXJKERURXJK $QWHQQDV  3URSDJDWLRQ &RQIHUHQFH 8. SS   1RYHPEHU >@:23RSRRODDQG=*KDVVHPORR\³%36.6XEFDUULHU,QWHQVLW\0RGXODWHG)UHH6SDFH 2SWLFDO&RPPXQLFDWLRQVLQ$WPRVSKHULF7XUEXOHQFH´-/LJKWZDYH7HFKQROYROQR SS±$SULO >@:23RSRROD=*KDVVHPORR\&*/HHDQG$&%RXFRXYDODV³6FLQWLOODWLRQ(IIHFWRQ ,QWHQVLW\ 0RGXODWHG /DVHU &RPPXQLFDWLRQ 6\VWHPV ± $ /DERUDWRU\ 'HPRQVWUDWLRQ´ - 2SWLFV /DVHU7HFKQRORJ\YROQRSS±'HFHPEHU >@. .LDVDOHK ³3HUIRUPDQFH RI $3'%DVHG 330 )UHH6SDFH 2SWLFDO &RPPXQLFDWLRQ 6\VWHPV LQ $WPRVSKHULF 7XUEXOHQFH´ ,((( 7UDQVDFWLRQV RQ &RPPXQLFDWLRQV YRO  QRSS6HSWHPEHU >@);X0 $OL .KDOLJKL DQG6%RXUHQQDQH³,PSDFW RI 'LIIHUHQW1RLVH 6RXUFHV RQ WKH 3HUIRUPDQFHRI3,1 DQG$3'EDVHG)625HFHLYHUV´ WK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ 7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV&RQ7(/*UD]$XVWULDSS-XQH >@$ $ )DULG DQG 6 +UDQLORYLF ³2XWDJH &DSDFLW\ 2SWLPL]DWLRQ IRU )UHH 6SDFH 2SWLFDO /LQNV ZLWK 3RLQWLQJ (UURUV´ - /LJKWZDYH 7HFKQRO YRO  QR  SS± -XO\  >@0,MD]=*KDVVHPORR\6$QVDUL2$GHEDQMR+/H0LQKDQG65DMEKDQGDULDQG$ *KRODPL ³([SHULPHQWDO ,QYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKH 3HUIRUPDQFH RI 'LIIHUHQW 0RGXODWLRQ 7HFKQLTXHVXQGHU&RQWUROOHG)627XUEXOHQFH&KDQQHO´WK,QWHUQDWLRQDO6\PSRVLXPRQ 7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV7HKUDQ,UDQSS'HFHPEHU >@6%ORRP(.RUHYDDU-6FKXVWHUDQG+:LOOHEUDQG³8QGHUVWDQGLQJ7KH3HUIRUPDQFH RI )UHH6SDFH 2SWLFV´ -RXUQDO RI 2SWLFDO 1HWZRUNLQJ YRO  QR  SS  -XQH  >@0$O1DERXOVL+6L]XQDQG)GH)RUQHO³)RJ$WWHQXDWLRQ3UHGLFWLRQIRU2SWLFDODQG ,QIUDUHG:DYHV´MRXUQDORI2SW(QJYROQRSS±)HEUXDU\ >@0 8\VDO - /L DQG 0 <X ³(UURU 5DWH 3HUIRUPDQFH $QDO\VLV RI &RGHG )UHH6SDFH 2SWLFDO /LQNV RYHU *DPPD*DPPD $WPRVSKHULF 7XUEXOHQFH &KDQQHOV´ ,((( 7UDQV :LUHOHVV&RPPXQYROQRSS±-XQH   ϱϮ >@:DVLX 2\HZROH 3RSRROD 6XEFDUULHU ,QWHQVLW\ 0RGXODWHG )UHH6SDFH 2SWLFDO &RPPXQLFDWLRQ6\VWHPV'RFWRUDO'LVVHUWDWLRQ6FKRRORI&RPSXWLQJ(QJLQHHULQJDQG ,QIRUPDWLRQ6FLHQFHV1RUWKXPEULD8QLYHUVLW\1HZFDVWOH8.6HSWHPEHU >@=*KDVVHPORR\ DQG:23RSRROD³7HUUHVWULDO )UHH6SDFH 2SWLFDO &RPPXQLFDWLRQV´ LQ0RELOHDQG:LUHOHVV&RPPXQLFDWLRQV1HWZRUN/D\HUDQG&LUFXLW/HYHO'HVLJQVWHG (GLWHGE\6DOPD$LW)DUHVDQG)XPL\XNL$GDFKL(G,QGLD,Q7HFKSS± >@+HLQ] :LOOHEUDQG ³)UHH 6SDFH 2SWLFV 7KH SDVW 7KH SUHVHQW  )XWXUH´ WK ,1)2&20 7HFKQRORJ\5RDG0DS6HPLQDU ,75 ,1)2&20'HYHORSPHQW$XWKRULW\RI6LQJDSRUH L'$Ϳ 6LQJDSRUH >@6 $UQRQ ³3HUIRUPDQFH RI D /DVHU —6DWHOOLWH 1HWZRUN ZLWK DQ 2SWLFDO 3UHDPSOLILHU´ -2SW6RF$P$YROQRSS$SULO >@³0REL1LO 6HOHFWV &DEOH)UHH IRU *60 1HWZRUN ([SDQVLRQ´ &DVH VWXG\ :LUHOHVV ([FHOOHQFH  KWWSZZZZLUHOHVVH[FHOOHQFHFRPSGI&)&60REL1LOSGI /DVWDFFHVV-DQXDU\ >@0RKDPPHG 5 $ED]D 1D]PL $]]DP DQG 0RXVWDID + $O\ )UHH 6SDFH 2SWLFDO &RPPXQLFDWLRQ 6\VWHPV LQ 7XUEXOHQW &KDQQHOV VW HG /$% /$0%(57 $FDGHPLF 3XEOLVKLQJ*HUPDQ\ >@1D]PL $ 0RKDPHG :LUHOHVV RSWLFDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQV 'RFWRUDO 'LVVHUWDWLRQ )DFXOW\ RI(OHFWULFDO(QJLQHHULQJ$OH[DQGULD8QLYHUVLW\$OH[DQGULD(J\SW-XQH >@*3 $JUDZDO )LEHU 2SWLF &RPPXQLFDWLRQ 6\VWHPV -RKQ :LOH\  6RQV 1HZ <RUN  >@=*KDVVHPORR\DQG$5+D\HV³,QGRRU2SWLFDO:LUHOHVV&RPPXQLFDWLRQV6\VWHPV± 3DUW,5HYLHZ´6FKRRORI(QJLQHHULQJ1RUWKXPEULD8QLYHUVLW\8. >@I621$ 2SWLFDO :LUHOHVV >2QOLQH@ $YDLODEOH KWWSZZZIVRQDFRP /DVW DFFHVV -DQXDU\ >@&DQREHDP>2QOLQH@$YDLOEOHKWWSZZZFDQREHDPFRP/DVWDFFHVV-DQXDU\ >@/,*+732,17( :LUHOHVV >2QOLQH@ $YDLODEOH ZZZOLJKWSRLQWHFRP  /DVW DFFHVV -DQXDU\ >@0 6 $ZDQ 0DU]XNL ( /HLWJHE ) 1DGHHP 0 6 .KDQ DQG & &DSVRQL ³:HDWKHU (IIHFWV ,PSDFWRQ7KH2SWLFDO3XOVH3URSDJDWLRQLQ)UHH6SDFH´ 3URFHHGLQJRIWKHWK 9HKLFXODU7HFKQRORJ\&RQIHUHQFH 97& %DUFHORQDSS$SULO   ϱϯ >@0XKDPPDG 6DOHHP $ZDQ /DV]OR &VXUJDL +RUZDWK 6DMLG 6KHLNK 0XKDPPDG (ULFK /HLWJHE )DUXNK 1DGHHP DQG 0XKDPPDG 6DHHG .KDQ  ³&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI )RJ DQG 6QRZ$WWHQXDWLRQVIRU)UHH6SDFH2SWLFDO3URSDJDWLRQ´-RXUQDORI&RPPXQLFDWLRQVSS 6HSWHPEHU >@0 $ $O+DEDVK / & $QGUHZV DQG 5 / 3KLOOLSV ³0DWKHPDWLFDO 0RGHO IRU WKH ,UUDGLDQFH3UREDELOLW\'HQVLW\)XQFWLRQRI$/DVHU%HDP3URSDJDWLQJ7KURXJK7XUEXOHQW 0HGLD´2SWLFDO(QJLQHHULQJYROQRSS±$XJXVW >@/DUU\&$QGUHZV5RODQG/3KLOOLSVDQG&\QWKLD<+RSHQ/HDVHU%HDP6FLQWLOODWLRQ ZLWK$SSOLFDWLRQV63,(3UHVV%RRN >@- 3HUH] = *KDVVHPORR\ 6 5DMEKDQGDUL 0 ,MD] DQG + /H 0LQK ³(WKHUQHW )62 &RPPXQLFDWLRQV /LQN 3HUIRUPDQFH 6WXG\ 8QGHU D &RQWUROOHG )RJ (QYLURQPHQW´ ,((( &RPPXQ/HWWYROQRSS±0DUFK >@+ 0DQRU DQG 6 $UQRQ ³(IIHFWV RI $WPRVSKHULF 7XUEXOHQFH DQG %XLOGLQJ 6ZD\ RQ 2SWLFDO :LUHOHVV&RPPXQLFDWLRQ 6\VWHPV´ 2SWLFV /HWWHUV YRO  QR  SS  -DQXDU\ >@$3URNHV³$WPRVSKHULF(IIHFWVRQ$YDLODELOLW\RI)UHH6SDFH2SWLFV6\VWHPV´2SWLFDO (QJLQHHULQJYROQRSS±-XQH >@$ $EXVKDJXU ) 0 $EERX 0 $EGXOODK DQG 1 0LVUDQ ³3HUIRUPDQFH DQDO\VLV RI D IUHHVSDFHWHUUHVWULDORSWLFDOV\VWHPLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIDEVRUSWLRQVFDWWHULQJDQGSRLQWLQJ HUURU´2SWLFDO(QJLQHHULQJYROQRSS±-XO\ >@$SSOLHG2SWRHOHFWURQLFV>2QOLQH@$YDLODEOHKWWSZZZDRLQFFRP >@+$0$0$768>2QOLQH@$YDLODEOHKWWSZZZKDPDPDWVXFRP >@0,MD]=*KDVVHPORR\6$QVDUL2$GHEDQMR+/H0LQKDQG65DMEKDQGDULDQG$ *KRODPL ³([SHULPHQWDO ,QYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKH 3HUIRUPDQFH RI 22.15= DQG 5= 0RGXODWLRQ7HFKQLTXHVXQGHU&RQWUROOHG7XUEXOHQFH&KDQQHOLQ)626\VWHPV´7KHWK $QQXDO 3RVW *UDGXDWH 6\PSRVLXP RQ WKH &RQYHUJHQFH RI 7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV 1HWZRUNLQJDQG%URDGFDVWLQJ 3*1HW /LYHUSRRO8.-XQH >@$JUDZDO*3DQG'XWWD1.6HPLFRQGXFWRU/DVHUQGHG9DQ1RVWUDQG5HLQKROG 1HZ<RUN >@6$UQRQ³3HUIRUPDQFH,PSURYHPHQWRI2SWLFDO:LUHOHVV&RPPXQLFDWLRQWKURXJK)RJ ZLWK $ 'HFLVLRQ )HHGEDFN (TXDOL]HU´ -2SW6RF$P $YRO  QR  SS  $XJXVW   ϱϰ