Crowd Science and risk management

Applied Crowd Dynamics SF610 Crowd dynamics is ‘the study of the how and where crowds form and move above the critical density of more than one person per square metre. At this density there is the potential for over crowding and personal injury’ (Still, 1989 - 2015). Contents Page 1. Introduction 3 2. Report aim’s 4 3. Key Theories 5 4. Methodology 8 5. Key learning from research 21 Appendix A 25 Appendix B 26 Appendix C 27 Appendix D 28 Appendix E 29 Assignment task - Applied Crowd Dynamics 1. Introduction One of the key elements of crowd modelling is to understand the capacity of the space, how quickly it will fill and what time it will take to reach critical density1. This essay will examine, discuss and make recommendations on a specific venue site from the point of view of a consultant, examining the crowd management planning for MK Dons at Stadium MK, Bletchley, Milton Keynes. This will discuss and examine the key issues of operating a stadium capacity of 30,500. So, why should crowd modeling be utilised? The arrival and movement of spectators at a venue is a vitally important aspect of safety management for a crowd safety manager. Crowd behaviour and dynamics will determine how a space fills over time. In his report on the 1989 Hillsborough Stadium Disaster Inquiry Rt Hon Lord Justice Taylor wrote (paragraph 59): A new ethos – “It is not enough to aim only at the minimum measures for safety. That has been, at best, the approach in the past and too often not even that standard has been achieved. What is required is the vision and imagination to achieve a new ethos for football. Grounds should be upgraded. Attitudes should be more welcoming. The aim should be to provide more modern and comfortable accommodation, better and more varied facilities, more consultation with the supporters and more positive leadership. If such a policy is implemented it will not only improve safety. There will also be an improvement in behaviour, making crowd control easier1. This tragedy and its aftermath heavily influenced the changes in outlook from a police led methodology of crowd control towards a professional crowd safety officer ethos of managing a crowd based on known theories of crowd behaviour and dynamics. Football tragedies such as the Hillsborough disaster can be said to have shaped crowd safety requirements and control. Isn’t it better to manage a crowd to ensure everyone’s safety at an event, to anticipant and plan for risks to crowd safety? Critical to this will be determining the risk factors determined for the ingress phases of an event as people arrive, the circulation phases during the event and the egress phases as they leave (SF610 Applied Crowd Dynamics Assignment Task Supplementary information Sheet 2014/15). Alexander E. Berlonghi2 (1993) stated in his paper - Understanding and planning for different spectator crowds; “Those involved in crowd management and crowd control cannot be excused from the significant responsibility of providing the public with the highest standard of safety and security that is both possible and feasible. They must first foresee the nature of the crowd that will be in attendance. Secondly, they must be able to observe the behaviour of a crowd while an event is taking place and make timely decisions for effective action. Finally, they must have the ability to establish policies, design plans and execute operations taking into consideration the configuration of the venue and the set-up of the particular special event.” An event safety officer will also need to take account of legislation. Safety teams and venue management teams will have a duty to ensure the safety of people attending the event and working at the event (Health and Safety At Work Act 1974 section 7). The Occupiers Liability Act 1957 establishes a uniform duty towards all lawful visitors. Section 2 of the act provides that the occupier extend a "common duty of care" to all lawful visitors. This duty is described as "a duty to take such care as in all the circumstances of the case is reasonable to see that the visitor will be reasonably safe in using the premises for the purposes for which he is invited or permitted by the occupier to be there" (Abstract from Occupiers Liability Act 1957 section 2(2)3 The Corporate Manslaughter and Homicide Act 2007 sets out the criminal liabilities placed on companies who can be prosecuted for a serious failure to manage the health and safety in the work place incidents where workplace fatalities occur4. John J. Fruin, Ph.D., P.E. (1992) in his paper5 - The Causes and Prevention of Crowd Disasters stated that, “Crowds occur frequently, usually without serious problems. Occasionally venue inadequacies and deficient crowd management result in injuries and fatalities. Major crowd incidents are described. Extreme crowding results in individual loss of control, and both psychological and physiological problems”. Fruin proposed a simple acronym “FIST” to describe the basic elements which can lead to a crowd disaster: F = the Force a crowd exerts I = the information upon which a crowd acts S = the physical Space involved, both in terms of individual density and larger scale architectural features; T = the time or duration of the incident Gustave le Bon6 in his book “The Crowd” (1895) argues that a forming crowd will act through the existence of anonymity, with a diminishing of personal responsibility towards a “contagion” of ideas rapidly moving through a crowd influencing a “collective personality”. F.H. Allport (1954) in his publication on - The structuring of events: outline of a general theory with applications to psychology7 described crowd behaviour by two overriding characteristics. One being social facilitation where a common stimulus will prepare two individuals for the same response so that when they come together the sight of each other will heighten their expectation of a certain event and releases a similar response in reach other. The second being that once they come together they will be an inter - stimulation where both start to behave in similar manners. John Drury and Stephen D. Reicher in their paper on Crowd Control: How to avoid mass panic8 (Scientific American Mind 2010) discussed the concept of mass panic, as a myth stating, “The idea of mass panic shapes how we plan for, and respond to, emergency events. In Pennsylvania, for example, the very term is inscribed in safety regulations known as the state’s Fire and Panic Code. Many public officials assume that ordinary people will become highly emotional in an emergency, especially in a crowded situation and that providing information about the true nature of the danger is likely to make individuals panic even more.” It is popular in the press to describe the outcomes of progressive over capacity of a space followed by crowd collapse as a “Stampede”. This is wrong. Keith Still states when talking through this issue “Crowd forces can reach levels that are almost impossible to resist or control. Virtually all crowd deaths are due to compressive asphyxia and not the "trampling" reported by the news media. Evidence of bent steel railings after several fatal crowd incidents show that forces of more than 4500N (1,000lbs) occurred. Forces are due to pushing, and the domino effect of people leaning against each other.” (Crowd Safety and Risk Analysis © 1989 – 2015). Given these factors as forces increase a crowd collapse will have an impact similar to popping a cork from a champagne bottle. The crowd will as the forces impacting on them are released will “surge” and quickly turn into a forward movement which looks as the crowd is suddenly stampeding. It can be seen that the task for an event safety officer will be to make an assessment of crowd risks, determine the control measures appropriate to eliminate or mitigate the risk and incorporate this when drafting the Event Safety Plan (Guide to Safety at Sports Grounds 2008 p.13). Risk assessments should take into account present information and not just a “cut and paste” from a previous event. Other legislation such as the Regulatory (Fire Safety) Order 2005 places a legal duty on occupiers of commercial premises to conduct risk assessment to calculate the safe occupancy levels and capacity based on the ability to evacuate the premises safely in the event of an emergency. These exit times will vary but 8 minutes to safely evacuate in an emergency would be considered normal to 6 minutes for a higher risk venues (Guide to Safety at Sports Grounds 2008 p.16, p28 and p190-202). As part of the licensing process to gain a safety certificate for a stadium such as MK Dons playing at Stadium MK, safe occupancy capacities will have to be supplied to MK Licensing Authority (Licensing Act 2003). 2. Report Aim’s The assignment task is to submit a dynamic risk site map, flow diagrams, calculations, a decision matrix and a meta-model for the event or crowd management plan ( assignment brief SF610 CW1 ). The structure of this report will be: An Illustration of the Key theories DIM ICE matrix for study event venues Arrival profile for study event venues Crowd flow analysis – normal and emergency crowd movements Risk mapping Matrix analysis of 1. Density v location v time, 2. location v time v deployment 3.Key Theories Fruin’s FIST model has already been introduced. This acronym can be applied to identify the key areas to examine and collect data to determine the basic elements present that can lead to crowd disasters. This information can assist in analysis using the DIM ICE model and meta model for potential crowd congestion. DIM ICE allows us to contrast and compare crowd behaviour, environment and management systems in place to respond to these elements. Normal Ingress Circulation Egress Design ? ? ? Information ? ? ? Management ? ? ? Emergency Ingress Circulation Egress Design ? ? ? Information ? ? ? Management ? ? ? DIM – ICE Model © K Still9 There are three primary phases of crowd movement utilising the DIM ICE model: Ingress – getting in, queuing, barrier design, gate design, information, managing flow rates, arrival profiles. Early detection of problems Circulation – moving around, queuing, design, information/signage, management, contingency planning – Red flagging Egress – getting out, flow rates, egress times. Normal and emergency. Red Flagging Design – venue location, design, construction, access Information – information available to the crowd Management - systems in place to anticipate, respond to and mitigate crowd behaviour. Using this system of risk management allows crowd management to plan ahead and anticipate possible contingencies in advance allowing them to be mitigated before they become a reality on the day of the event. It also allows for the deployment of resources in expectation of crowd contingencies arising such as the provision of engineering controls such as barriers and or additional stewarding numbers at transport hubs or messages directing patrons to exits using Variable Message Signage Boards. (Managing Crowds Safely, 2000) In Keith Still’s Crowd Risk Analysis workshop he describes Crowd modelling as having four key elements - Space, Time, Direction and Flow.  Space - what is the capacity at low/high density. Define each area in the site as a density profile. Different areas have different uses and therefore different crowd requirements (such as queuing, front of stage, bars, toilets etc.)  Time - over what period will the crowds arrive? Do you have sufficient welfare in place?  Direction - which direction will the crowds approach the site? Specifically the loads from and to the local transport infrastructure. Flow - what is the maximum flow rate of the arriving crowds - this determines the flow-fill-fail times. Some areas will require two way flow calculations. Short cuts Crowds will exploit the shortest and convenient route Sight lines Operational sightlines can be deceptive Spaces Not all space is used evenly Speed High density crowds will move at the pace of the slowest person An event planner will also take into account: R routes A area M movement P (crowd) profile By examining pedestrian flow and speed, the density of the crowd and how the crowd moves (single lane flow, contra/cross flows), plus the behaviours of the crowd an event planner can determine the factors necessary to ensure safety at the event10. 4. Methodology Introduction and background to Stadium MK: Stadium MK was built in 2007 at a cost of 50m with a capacity of 22,000. In 2014 funded by retail development of the site this was raised to 30,500 at a cost of a further 56m. The stadium was used as one of the venues for the Rugby World Cup in 2015. The permission to include the following information has been provided by the Safety Officer for Stadium MK, Andrew Standen. Stadium MK capacities: See diagram (Appendix A) with seating block capacities.  The seating areas are colour coded. Yellow stand is Away, and there is a ‘hard segregation’ at Lower aisle 30-38 and Upper 27A to 38.  The other stands are as they are shown as a mixture of home seating.  Block 22 & 23 Upper are usually for corporate clients. Adding the block capacities together totals 30,500 overall, which figures on the stadium turnstile monitoring programme. This is the allowed capacity stated in the Safety Certificate with a P and S factor of 1 (SGSA 2014). There are 8 emergency exits gates with one pitch side level tunnel exit at gate 5. Gates 1 – 3 allow entry into the yellow stand lower and upper seating. On the lower tier, there is a walkway or vomitory that is open to pitch side. This walkway circulates around the entire stadium. There are gates segregating the yellow stand from the other three sides. Gates 4 – 7 give access therefore to stands green, blue and red. Gate 8 allows access from the One Tree Hotel into the members bar area and corporate boxes. There is doorway access from the bar area directly onto the seating area of red stand. Ingress flow rates are calculated as 660/hour/turnstile.  This is the figure stated in the Safety Certificate. Typically turnstiles open 90 minutes before kick off. Report analysis based on 4th Round FA Cup match between MK Dons and Chelsea on 29th January 2016. Scheduled Kick off – 1600 Match day Attendance – 28,127 Flow rates used: en13200/2012 - 82 people per metre per minute (level ground) 66 people per metre per minute (on stairs) Number of turnstiles: Gate 1 – 6 Lower, 4 Upper Gate 2 – 6 Lower only Gate 3 – 6 Lower, 4 Upper Gate 4 – 6 Lower only Gate 5 – 6 Lower, 4 Upper Gate 6 – 4 Lower Gate 7 – 6 Lower & Upper (unique gate arrangement with stairs and lifts to both concourses) Gate 8 / Hotel reception – no turnstiles but hand scanners on match day for corporate and VIP clients.  Typically 3 on match days, but can be increased based on anticipated sales. Each turnstile is controlled by ticket bar code readers. Normal egress & emergency egress: Typically 10-15 minutes when no pressure to exit. In an emergency evacuation this drops to a maximum 8 minutes. Turnstile widths are: 600mm Emergency gate widths are: 2m Seating Capacity Yellow Stand capacity = 8193 Green Stand capacity = 8126 Blue Stand capacity = 6738 Red Stand capacity = 6930 50 x Corporate Boxes = 513 Total Capacity = 30500 (Appendix A) Ingress capacity by stand Yellow (Gates 2-3) - 14 x 660pph x 1.5hr (90mins) = 13860 Red (Gates 1-7) - 16 x 660pph x 1.5hr (90mins) = 15840 Blue (Gate 4) - 6 x 660pph x 1.5hr (90mins) = 5940 Green (Gates 5 – 6) - 14 x 660pph x 1.5hr (90mins) = 13860 Corporate Red (Gate 8) - 3 x 660pph x 1.5hr (90mins) = 2970 Total Turnstile capacity is 52470 Excess Capacity = Turnstile capacity - Stadium Capacity: 52470 – 30500 = 21970 The turnstiles for lower and upper seating are sited at each gate on lower tier (photos Appendix B). There are short stairways leading from turnstiles to upper seating area. Normal egress capacities @ 82 people per metre per minute (level ground) and 66 people per metre per minute (stairs) At each gate there is one stairway leading from the upper tier to the exit gate that is 4m wide. At each exit there is at least a 4m exit for the upper tiers and 6m for the lower tiers (Appendix C and D). Normal egress times for upper and lower tiers has been set at a minimum of 10 minutes when there is no pressure on the exit gates and 8 minutes in an emergency evacuation (Stadium MK Operational Plan). Gate 1 (4 x 66 x 10) + ( 6 x 82 x 10) = 7560 Gate 2 6 x 82 x 10 = 4920 Gate 3 (4 x 66 x 10) + (6 x 82 x 10) = 7560 Gate 4 6 x 82 x 10 = 4920 Gate 5 (4 x 66 x 10) + (6 x 82 x 10) = 7560 Gate 6 6 x 82 x 10 = 4920 Gate 7 6 x 82 x 10 = 4920 Gate 8 3 x 82 x 10 = 2460 Total = 44820 Emergency egress capacities @ 82 people per metre per minute (level ground) and 66 people per metre per minute (stairs) Gate 1 (4 x 66 x 8) + (6 x 82 x 8) = 6048 Gate 2 6 x 82 x 8 = 3936 Gate 3 (4 x 66 x 8) + (6 x 82 x 8) = 6048 Gate 4 6 x 82 x 8 = 3936 Gate 5 (4 x 66 x 8) + (6 x 82 x 8) = 6048 Gate 6 6 x 82 x 8 = 3936 Gate 7 6 x 82 x 8 = 3936 Gate 8 3 x 82 x 8 = 1968 Total = 35856 Traffic Management There is an established match day traffic plan. Most spectators travel to the stadium by car, bus, private coach hire and on foot. There is designated parking for match day traffic, including a coach park. The footprint of the stadium complex includes a commercial shopping and entertainment area. Congestion is often experienced due to significant increases in vehicular traffic converging onto the site, which mixes with local traffic visiting the shopping complexes, restaurants, multiplex cinema and arena. An agency stewarding company supply car parking stewards to monitor and direct vehicles to the allocated parking, ensuring the local hotel and VIP parking is controlled and unauthorised parking is restricted. Ensuring emergency services have clear access to the stadium. Policing Plan There is an appointed Police liaison officer for the Stadium MK who will attend each home fixture. The scale of Policing presence will be determined by the category of the match judged by the crowd profile and historical incidents of disorder. Match Day Plans The Safety Officer Andy Standen, together with his Deputy Peter Downing have responsibility for reviewing and updating the following plans annually In preparation for and before the start of each season and reviewing risk assessments and stewarding plans before each match. Consultation with external agencies such as Police, Fire Service, Ambulance Service and Local Authority will also be included in the preparation for each match. Stadium Event Safety Plan Health and Safety Policy Risk Assessments Match Day Management and Stewarding Plan Contingency Plans Emergency Evacuation Plan FIST Analysis F Identifying Impact factors include areas where likelihood of increases in crowd density at over 4 per m2. What tolerable forces apply at barriers, turnstiles, in relation to age and gender and disabilities? Time duration of risk at identified areas. Unaccounted for queuing and congestion where queuing crowd mass becomes static. I Type of event, signage, crowd behaviour, demeanor, dynamics, safety management intentions for event, Emergency instructions to safety personnel/public. S Identifying restrictions to crowd flow. Barriers, corners, stairs, reducing spaces in corridors, pathways, and stairs. T Duration of impact factors and likely outcomes. Using the FIST acronym model will allow the event safety manager to identify areas of concern and use this information to support further analysis and reduce the risk of crowd disaster. DIM ICE Analysis Normal Ingress Circulation Egress Design Careful monitoring as crowd builds up progressively before turnstiles open and during critical period 90 mins before KO. Pedestrian flow congestion causing queuing leading up to and around turnstile entrances. Circulation around food outlets and bars before KO and at half time. Clearly signed exit points from open walkways leading down stair ways to exit gates. Each stairway has minimum of 4m exit width leading to minimum of 4m exit gate widths (2 x 2m doorways) Information There is good pre event advertising through local press and social media. good signage to the event from M1, A5 and Central MK. Concise briefing for stewards/security staff and close monitoring from supervisors during event Monitored of key exit routes by Stewards maintaining good communication Key safety staff in radio communication with control room. Management Safety Management fully prepared safety processes and risk assessment to determining stewarding plan. Clear monitoring of stewarding operation for crowd management. Team of SIA response stewards available to respond to crowd issues. Experienced Safety Officer and Deputy conduct pre event stadium checks. Careful monitoring of event and competent management team communicating changes to respond to crowd flows. Robust contingency plans in place. Good site lines around site. Monitoring via CCTV. Good management team experienced in running Stadium MK. Effective contingency plans examined and approved by SAG. P and S factor certified at 1 by Licensing authority. Emergency Ingress Circulation Egress Design Event pause or stop plans in place due to weather or incident. Structural collapse due to terrorist incident. Move crowd to pitch area away from incident Queing system in place. Pedestrian flows becoming congested around exits. More than one exit becoming blocked or closed due to incident outside stadium. Move crowd to pitch area. All exit signage clearly illuminated at exit gates and from walkways leading from seating. All exit gates open and stewarded. All walkways and stairs leadig from seating stewarded and monitored by CCTV. Information There is good pre event advertising through local press and social media. Good signage to the event from M1, A5, Bletchley Railway Station and Central MK. Good Public Address system in place and tested. Use of social media and large information screens around stadium. Clear emergency exit signage. Public address sytem broadcasting clear instruction. Key stewards trained in use of loudhailers to be deployed pitch side and at exits to seating. Stewards with radios to keep control room fully updated. Management Safety Management fully prepared safety processes and risk assessment to determining stewarding plan. Clear monitoring of stewarding operation for crowd management. Team of SIA response stewards available to respond to crowd issues. Experienced Safety Officer and Deputy conduct pre event stadium checks. Careful monitoring of event and competent management team communicating changes to respond to crowd flows. Robust contingency plans in place. Good site lines around site. Monitoring via CCTV. Good management team experienced in running Stadium MK. Effective contingency plans examined and approved by SAG. P and S factor certified at 1 by Licensing authority. Using this model allows the Safety Officer and his deputy to effectively plan for the management of the anticipated crowd and their safety. Effective use of this model can be repeated for each match day profile. The information can be reviewed and updated where needed within the DIM ICE model. Arrival, circulation and egress profile, MK Dons v Chelsea 4th Round FA Cup In determining the arrival, circulation and egress profiles of spectators a decision making matrix can be used to determine the deployment of car parking and crowd safety stewards at parking areas, gates walkways, concourses and stands. The following analysis takes into account the mix of match day vehicular traffic and “shoppers”. Account has been taken of space, time direction and flow. Arrival Profile Car parking Gate 1 -3 Gate 4 Gate 5-6 Gate 7 Gate 8 Club Shop 1300-1330 1330-1400 1400-1430 1430-1500 1500-1530 1530-1600 1600-1630 Areas and times of high crowd density where additional steward deployment required over normal deployment Areas and times of medium crowd density where additional steward deployment may be required over normal deployment Areas and times of low crowd density where normal stewarding levels can be maintained. Circulation Profile Turnstiles Lower tier walkways Upper tier walkways Bar areas Food vendors One Tree Hotel Corporate Boxes Pre kick off 1500-1600 Kick Off 1600-1645 Half Time 1645-1700 Final Whistle 1745 Areas and times of high crowd density where additional steward deployment required over normal deployment Areas and times of medium crowd density where additional steward deployment may be required over normal deployment Areas and times of low crowd density where normal stewarding levels can be maintained. Egress Profile Car parking Gate 1 -3 Gate 4 Gate 5-6 Gate 7 Gate 8 Corporate Boxes 1730-1800 1800-1830 1830-1900 1900-1930 Incident related crowd risk It is important in the current environment of a Severe Risk11 (Current International threat level 2015), together with changes to environment and behaviour of individuals, to identify where an incident will affect the risks to the venue. Increases in Crowd pressure Drunken behaviour due to intoxication Terrorist threat, suspicious item/behaviour Extreme hot weather Extreme cold weather Incident of Fire/explosion Gates Corporate boxes Hotel Car parking/ Stadium way Arena (if in use) Bar/food outlet areas Shopping/ entertainment Risk to life. Show stop instigated. Safety management initiates evacuation. Consideration to outer or inner movement of crowd exit (gate exit or pitch side) Areas and times of high crowd density where additional steward deployment required over normal deployment. Police and other Emergency services take command and control if major incident declared. Risk of injury, disruption to event areas and times of medium crowd density where additional steward deployment may be required over normal deployment. Safety Management preparing for contingencies if a threat is confirmed. Crowd anxiety and frustration where areas and times of low crowd density are maintained. Normal stewarding levels can be maintained. The above matrix will assist the venue Safety management to determine staffing deployment and level of safety precautions and activities leading up to and during the event. RAMP Analysis Routes Stadium MK is located south of Central Milton Keynes with excellent road links from M1. Access to the stadium is via (north) A5 leading into V6 Bletcham Way and V7 Saxon Street and (south) Watling Street. Railway networks serve the stadium from Bletchley Station (1.5 mile) and Central Milton Keynes (3 miles). There are regular bus routes between CMK Railway Station and Bletchley. Bletchley Railway Station is 30 minutes walk from Stadium MK and a 5 min bus ride. Central Milton Keynes Railway Station is a 10 minute bus ride. Access to the stadium is via Gates 1 – 8 (Appendix A). There is a Hotel designated as gate 8 (The One Tree) which gives access to the Corporate Boxes and members bar area. The members bar area gives access into the Red Stand of the stadium. Areas The spectator viewing sections of the stadium are colour coded yellow, green, blue and red: Yellow Stand: Turnstile access is from Stadium Way North (Gates 2-3). A covered seating stand with a lower and upper tier. Lower tier seating is 100m wide by 20m deep. Upper tier is 100m by 10m deep. Combined maximum capacity is 8193. There is an open walkway behind the stand seating on the lower tier, which stretches across the yellow stand area. There are bar and food outlets on the outer side of this walkway. Screens are in place behind the stand seating to block viewing of the playing area from the bar areas12 (section 2 Sporting Events (Control of Alcohol) Act 1985). Automatic shutter can be closed to segregate the walkway from the red and green stand walkways. Wicket gates (access) controlled by stewards allow authorised access. There are two food outlets and toilet facilities both in lower and upper tiers. Netting of stand seating at Lower aisle 30-38 and Upper 30 to 38 reduce r capacity to (240 lower + 120 upper) to 7833. The first two row of seating on the upper tier are netted as a control measure to risks of falling over the low retaining wall in from of the seating area which is only 600mm high. There is a drop of 20m to the lower tier. This reduces the capacity further by a further 240 seats. Final capacity is 7593. Green Stand Turnstile access is leads from V7 Saxon Street into Stadium Way East (Gate 4). The Green section is a covered seating stand with a lower and upper tier. Lower tier seating is 150m wide by 20m deep. Upper tier is 150m by 10m deep. Combined maximum capacity is 8126. There is an open walkway behind the stand seating on the lower tier, which stretches across the green stand area. There are bar and food outlets on the outer side of this walkway. There are no screens in place behind the stand viewing of the playing area from the bar areas12 (section 2 Sporting Events (Control of Alcohol) Act 1985) is restricted by hard screen areas across the bar area. The bar serving area is enclosed behind the permanent screening. Automatic shutter are engaged to close off and segregate the walkway from the yellow stand walkway. Wicket gates (access) controlled by stewards allow authorised access. Netting across block 38 is taken into account for the seating capacity in the yellow stand. Away supporter seating can be utilized in the green stand as the shutters when closed screen off block 38 reinforced by netting of the seating. There are two food outlets and toilet facilities both in lower and upper tiers. Blue Stand Turnstile access is leads from V7 Saxon Street and V6 leading into Stadium Way South (Gates 5-6). The Blue section is a covered seating stand with a lower and upper tier. Lower tier seating is 100m wide by 20m deep. Upper tier is 100m by 10m deep. Combined maximum capacity is 6738. There is an open walkway behind the stand seating on the lower tier, which stretches across the blue stand area. There are bar and food outlets on the outer side of this walkway. There are no screens in place behind the stand viewing of the playing area from the bar areas12 (section 2 Sporting Events (Control of Alcohol) Act 1985) The bar area are completed enclosed and a separate bar rooms accessed through doorways. There are no windows allowing viewing to the playing area. There are no segregation shutters between Green and Red stands, as the adjacent stands are entire home supporters seating. There are 3 food outlets and toilet facilities both in lower and upper tiers. Red Stand Turnstile access leads from V6 leading into Stadium Way South (Gates 7-8). The Red section is a covered seating stand with a lower and upper tier. Lower tier seating is 150m wide by 20m deep. Upper tier is 150m by 10m deep. Combined maximum capacity is 6930. The Red Stand also accommodates 50 Corporate Boxes, which are accessed via the One Tree Hotel entrance. There are seating areas outside each box, which varies between 10 and 14 seats dependent on the size of the Box. This accounts for an additional 513 seats. This increases the capacity of the Red Stand to 7443. There is an open walkway behind the stand seating on the lower tier, which is divided in the center by an enclosed members bar area. There are Door ways lead out from this area into the walkways both sides adjacent giving access to towards the Red and Blue stand seating and Red/Yellow seating. There is a segregation shutter which is deployed on match days between Red and Yellow stands on the lower tier. There is a locked doorway giving authorized access from the Corporate Boxes into the Yellow Stand Upper tier. There are bar and food outlets on the outer side of the walkways. There is screening in place to prevent viewing of the playing area from the bar areas12 (section 2 Sporting Events (Control of Alcohol) Act 1985) There is a members bar area which is completed enclosed with separated bar rooms accessed through doorways. There are windows allowing viewing to the playing area have misted glass/blinds so the playing are cannot be viewed. There are no segregation shutters between Red stand and Blue stands, as this is an entirely home supporter seating area. There are food outlets, bars and toilet facilities both in lower and upper tiers. This area gives access to the Corporate Boxes via lifts to the 2nd and 3rd floor of the Hotel. Blinds are deployed on each of the Corporate Boxes during match play to prevent viewing. No alcoholic drinks are allowed to be brought out to the seating area from the dining areas. Revised capacity for this game is 29900. Exit Areas There are 8 main Exit Gates in place for Stadium MK. Normal egress and emergency egress is place at each Gate adjacent to the turnstiles (Appendix C-D) Gate 1 - 3 feeds into Stadium Way North from the Yellow Stand. Combined exit widths is 24m giving an combined exit egress rate of 20040 over a normal egress time of 10 minutes. Gate 4 feeds into Stadium Way East and V7 Saxon Gate combined exit width is 8m which gives a normal egress rate of 4920 over a normal egress time of 10 minutes from the Green Stand. Egress is also attainable here from the Blue Stand, as a contingency measure should Gate 5 become unusable. Gates 5-6 feeds into Stadium Way South from the Blue Stand. Combined exit width is 8m, which gives a normal egress rate of 12480 over a normal egress time of 10 minutes. Gate 7 feeds into Stadium Way West from the Blue/Red Stand corner. Exit width is 6m, which gives a normal egress rate of 3936 over a normal egress time of 10 minutes. Gate 8 feeds from the members bar area and corporate boxes. Exit width at the Hotel entrance is 3m, which gives a normal egress rate of 2460 over a normal egress time of 10 minutes. Exit capacity is 43836 Movement There are established transport links to and from the Stadium. The match day traffic plans incorporate contingencies for high volume attendance such as the 4th Round, serviced by a Park and ride scheme. Otherwise the majority of spectators will leave the Stadium and depart either in private vehicles and coaches. During ingress and egress phases, volume of vehicle traffic is mixed with local traffic to the shopping and entertainment venues around the Stadium. Bus services feed the nearby railways stations at Bletchley and Central Milton Keynes. Exit pedestrian and vehicle flow is shown in Appendix E. Profile Home supporters – MK Dons MK Dons has a loyal family based fan following. There is a mix of families who will mainly occupy seating in the Red Stand. This profile extends to older and younger males, who will form into informal groups on match days with no specific leadership but with a common purpose to watch their team, drink alcohol both on and off site and chant and sing to encourage their team. Standing in the stand seats is common in the Blue stand. Away supporters - Chelsea Chelsea has a wide and loyal following and will have a high number of fans travelled to Stadium MK for this 4th Round FA Cup tie. Typically 40,000 will attend home games. Since the 1990’s there has been a steep decline in football related violence. Home office statistics13 from 2009 – 2010 season 126 Chelsea fans were arrested for football related offences which was the third highest in their division, 27 banning orders were issued. Congestion areas The ingress phase will over a period of 2.5 hours before the start of the match will alleviate significant congestion. The ingress profiles have shown that the turnstile systems can cope with a sell out game. At full time the situation will be significantly different. A capacity crowd of 28127 will leave over a compressed period of time. This has been illustrated in a congest map (Appendix E). 5. Key learning from research An analysis of ingress flow rates at turnstiles has shown that the ingress system employed at the stadium has clear capacity to cope with a sell out attendance. Calculating the seating capacity in a Ramp Analysis has reduced the overall ground capacity to 29900. This number will vary dependent on the amount of seats lost from employment of segregation netting. Ramp analysis shows the exit capacity to 43836. A combined emergency egress capacity has been identified by calculating each Gate exit capacity. This has been determined at significantly over the ground capacity at an emergency egress rate of 35856. A FIST and DIM ICE analysis has identified key information for Safety Management to respond to, for the Event Safety Planning and Stewarding deployment plan. Meta model matrix examination of Ingress, circulation and egress phases over time and place shows key staffing locations over the duration of the event. This has been reinforced by an Incident v location matrix, which has identified additional key deployment decisions in minor and major incident management. Identifying congestion mapping both on ingress and egress phases will assist decision making for transport contingency planning for off site parking options with park and ride. This will also impact on local railway station and the increased volume of travelling fans choosing to travel by rail. The value of utlising an analysis of the event through the process of established models can identify key safety concerns through a risk profile so that Safety Management can make informed decisions in preparation and during the event. 21331075 SF610 8th February 2016 Word count (6525) References 1. Rt Hon Lord Justice Taylor 1990 The Hillsborough Stadium Disaster Inquiry: 15 April 1989: Final Report, Cm 962, January 1990 2. Berlonghi Alexander (1993) Understanding and planning for different spectator crowds http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/092575359400033Y accessed 1/2/16 3. Occupiers Liability Act 1957 http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Eliz2/5-6/31/contents section 2 - accessed 1/2/16 4. Corporate Manslaughter and Homicide Act 2009 – section 2 http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2007/19/section/2 accessed 1/2/16 5. Fruin J. - Crowd Disasters - A Systems Evaluation of Causes and Counter measures. Inc. in U.S. National Bureau of Standards, pub. NBSIR 81-3261, July 1981 146 pp. 6. Le Bon, Gustave. (1895) The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind, Marston Gate, Filiquarian Publishing (2005), Amazon. 7. Allport, F. H. (1954). The structuring of events: outline of a general theory with applications to psychology. 8. Crowd Control: How We Avoid Mass Panic   http://drury-sussex-the-crowd.blogspot.co.uk/2011/01/crowd-control-how-we-avoid-mass-panic.html Scientific American Mind - November 1, 2010 – accessed 2/2/16 and http://www.sussex.ac.uk/affiliates/panic/SciAmMindwithoutpics.pdf accessed 2/2/16. 9. Still Keith (1989 – 2015) DIMICE model http://www.gkstill.com/Support/WhyModel/EventModelling.html accessed 15/12/15. 10. 21331075 BU510 (2015) Task 1 – What is meant by Crowd Science and Dynamics? P2 – 5. 11. Security Servce M15 threat assessment for UK - https://www.mi5.gov.uk/home/the-threats/terrorism/threat-levels.html -accessed 05/02/16. 12. Sporting Events (Control of Alcohol) Act 1985 http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1985/57/contents - accessed 06/02/16. 13. Home Office Statistics on football-related arrests and banning orders, season 2009 to 2010 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/statistics-on-football-related-arrests-and-banning-orders-season-2009-10 - accessed 06/02/16 End of report  Appendix A  Appendix B  Appendix C Appendix D  Appendix E 21331075 BA Crowd Safety Management Year 3 SF610 Bucks New University 1