CORRESPONDENCE
Complexity clouds
finance-risk models
We question the usefulness
of focusing on sophisticated
ecosystem or other models for
assessing financial risks (Nature
469, 302–303 and 351–355;
2011) when practical solutions
are to hand.
The main bottleneck is more
political than technical, driven
by a US banking oligarchy that
effectively controls the economy.
(Europe’s and China’s banks have
more complex interactions with
the state.)
We agree that traditional
economic models need to be
enhanced with interdisciplinary
system theory in the medium and
long term. But known short-term
solutions have demonstrated
their value in previous successful
policies, and we should relearn
and expand some of the old
economic wisdom about the
specific role of banks.
Banks are important because
they create credit in a fractional
reserve system, and credit
markets are crucial allocators
of capital to entrepreneurs.
However, this is not considered
in macro-economic models
used by central banks (indirect
influence through interest rates
aside). The Austrian school of
economists and scholars in the
1930s correctly emphasized that
too much credit, encouraged by
artificially low interest rates set
by the central banks, can lead
to bubbles and unsustainable
booms. This is what happened
in the run-up to the current
financial crisis.
One problem that is often
overlooked is the misalignment
of interests between credit
creation by banks for profit
maximization versus the
amount of credit required
by the economy. The Glass–
Steagall Act of 1933 reconciled
these interests by separating
investment, commercial and
retail banking and insurance.
Most scholars attribute much
of the economic stability after
the Second World War to this
legislation. Its repeal in 1999
was the culmination of a decade
of deregulation justified by the
‘great moderation’ (go.nature.
com/ehkgvv), which turned
out to be just a consequence
of the actuation of a perpetual
money machine that promised
unrealistic economic growth.
We need to stop being blinded
by complexity so that policymakers can develop effective
responses to the financial crisis
and academics can create a
genuine science of out-ofequilibrium system economics.
Didier Sornette, Susanne
von der Becke ETH Zürich,
Switzerland.
dsornette@ethz.ch
Science and religion
are wise to talk
As recipients of several peerreviewed grants from the John
Templeton Foundation over the
past decade, we agree with other
recipients who report that the
foundation has never sought to
interfere with their grant-funded
projects (Nature 470, 323–325;
2011).
For those who think that this
grant-giving body should not
have funded some projects, we
might say the same about all the
other agencies that have funded
our research in biomedical
science and geophysics. Receiving
a grant does not entail accepting
the worth of all the other grants
given by the same body.
As far as the mingling of
scientific and religious language is
concerned, we agree that this is a
justifiable concern. In the United
Kingdom, the Faraday Institute
(our institution) is well known for
its criticism of both creationism
and intelligent design. Attempts
to introduce theological language
into the practice of science is as
damaging for theology as it is for
science. Each academic discipline
has its own specialized language
and its own criteria for justifying
its claims; mixing them only
creates confusion.
However, we disagree with the
scientists you cite who oppose
any kind of interdisciplinary
engagement between science
and religion, or who maintain
that they are in conflict. Given
that almost all organized science
education in Europe was carried
out by religious institutions for
many centuries, and that the
premises and practices of science
have deep theological roots,
such a stance is implausible. The
world is as religious as it has ever
been — perhaps more so. The
scientific community is often
embedded in highly religious
societies, the United States
being a prime example. Friendly
dialogue is a wiser strategy than
aloof isolationism.
Denis Alexander, Bob White
The Faraday Institute for Science
and Religion, Cambridge, UK.
dra24@hermes.cam.ac.uk
Infrastructure vital
to genome success
Eric Lander’s assessment of the
impact of the publication of
the human genome sequence
(Nature 470, 187–197; 2011)
does not comment on the
substantial progress made
in research-infrastructure
development in areas such
as resources, technology,
computational biology, training,
education and ethical, legal and
societal issues, as envisaged by
the genome community (Nature
422, 835–847; 2004).
Look at the key experimental
resource of human cohorts.
For example, more than
500,000 volunteers have now
signed up for the world’s
largest prospective study, UK
Biobank. Comparable studies
are ongoing in Norway and
China. A retrospective study,
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© 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
Biobank Japan, has already
proved its investigational value.
Researchers are also building a
global network of cohort studies
through the Canada-based
Public Population Project in
Genomics.
Biobanking networks are
emerging across the European
Union. Examples are the
Biobanking and Biomolecular
Resources Research
Infrastructure and the UK DNA
Banking Network.
Advanced data-management
systems at the Cancer
Biomedical Informatics Grid,
the US National Center for
Biotechnology Information and
the European Bioinformatics
Institute near Cambridge, UK,
are facilitating meta-analysis and
experimental design.
Across the European
Research Area, under the aegis
of the Innovative Medicines
Initiative and the European
Strategy Forum on Research
Infrastructures, an ambitious
programme of researchinfrastructure development is
under way for the entire ‘value
chain’ of medicines. As part of
this, biomedical education and
training are being revamped
through, for example, the
public–private European
Medicines Research Training
Network.
Without such experimentation
in and development of its
research infrastructure, the
fecundity of genome-based
research will not fulfil its promise
for health and society.
Martin Yuille University of
Manchester, UK.
martin.yuille@manchester.ac.uk
SEE COMMENT P.159
CONTRIBUTIONS
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