Globalization

GLOBALIZATION Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow i GLOBALIZATION Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow Edited by Jim She eldи Victoria University of Wellington эndrey Korotayev Russian State University for the Humanities Leonid Grinin Volgograd Center for Social Research пфнм N нффth эve Litchfield Parkи эZ фспрм iii Globalization: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow Edited byц Jim She eldи эndrey Korotayevи в Leonid Grinin Library of яongress яontrol Numberц омнпxxxxxx ISюNц хуфйнйхпфнсфймфйу яopyright © омнп пфнм N нффth эveи Litchfield Parkи эZ фспрми USэ эll rights reservedк No part of this publication may be reproducedи stored on a retrieval systemи or transmittedи in any form or by any meansи electronicи mechanicalи photocopyingи microfilmingи recording or otherwiseи without written permission from the publisherк Printed in the United States of эmerica iv v vi ABOUT THE EDITORS Jim Sheffield is a systems theorist at the School of Management at Victoria University of Wellingtonи New Zealandк In this capacity and his previous role as Director of the Decision Support яentreи University of эuckland he has designedи implemented and evaluated more than нмм action research initiativesк Major projects focussed on the facilitation of national policy in response to globalizationк Jim has published widely in the systems perspectives that underpin aspects of globalizationи especially those related to decision makingи knowledge managementи systemic development and ethical inquiryк He has over нсм scholarly publications and is coeditor of the Journal of Globalization Studiesк He serves on the editorial board of journals and is active in professional societiesи including the International Society for the Systems Sciences (ISSS)к He is the author of several booksи and editor of Systemic Development and My Decisive Momentк Andrey V. Korotayev is Senior Research Professor of the Oriental Institute and Institute for эfrican Studiesи Russian эcademy of Sciencesи Professor and the Head of the Department of Modern эsian and эfrican Studiesи Russian State University for the Humanitiesи Full Professor of the Faculty of Global Studies of the Moscow State Universityи and the Head of Laboratory of the Monitoring of Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks as the National Research University Higher School of Economicsи Moscowк Together with Leonid Grinin he edits the Journal of Globalization Studies and the Social Evolution and History. He is the author of over пмм scholarly publicationsи including such monographs as Ancient Yemen днххсеч World Religions and Social Evolution of the Old World Oikumene Civilizations: A Cross-Cultural Perspective доммреч Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth доммтеч and Modeling the World Dynamics домноек Leonid E. Grinin is a Russian sociologistи political anthropologistи and a scholar of historical trends and future studiesк He has PhD and is Senior Research Professor at the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian эcademy of Sciences in Moscow and serves as Deputy Director of the Eurasian яenter for юig History в System Forecasting дRussian эcademy of Sciencesек He is also coeditor of the Journal of Globalization Studies and Editorйinйяhief of the journal Age of Globalization дin Russianек His academic interests are connected with the analysis of problems of globalization and modernizationк His published research includes topics such as forecasting world political changeи socialйeconomic development and social evolutionк He has also published on the theory of historical processч and the evolution of statehoodк He is the author of more than птм scholarly publications in Russian and Englishи including ос monographsк vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The editors would like to express their thanks to the many authors who contributed their research to this monographк We would also like to thank our technical editorsи Elena Emanovaи Kseniya Uhovaи and Elena Nikiforovaи who were responsible for the preparation of the papers and the coverк Finally we express our gratitude to Kurt Richardson and all the others at Emergent Publications for their guidance and support throughout the publishing processк viii CONTENTS GLOBALIZATION AS A LINK BETWEEN THE PAST AND THE FUTURE Jim Sheffield, Andrey Korotayev, & Leonid Grinin ORGANIZATION ....................................................................................................... XX PART I GLOBALIZATION IN HISTORY ........................................................... XX PART II CONTEMPORARY GLOBALIZATION ..............................................XXIII PART III GLOBALIZATION IN THE FUTURE ............................................... XXVII CHAPTER 1—THE ORIGINS OF GLOBALIZATION Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev I II III INTRODUCTION: THE AIMS OF THE ARTICLE ............................................. 2 THE AFROEURASIAN WORLD-SYSTEM: A GENERAL OVERVIEW ........... 8 A brief overview of the main phases of the Afroeurasian world-system’s evolution ................................................................... 11 WORLD-SYSTEM LINKS AND PROCESSES.................................................. 14 The systemic character of the world-system processes.......................... 14 The most important types of world-system links ................................... 16 THE WORLD SYSTEM GENESIS AND TRANSFORMATIONS: A DETAILED ANALYSIS .................................................................................. 17 Origins of the Afroeurasian world-system .............................................. 17 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................... 24 CHAPTER 2—THE LEAD ECONOMY SEQUENCE IN WORLD POLITICS (FROM SUNG CHINA TO THE UNITED STATES): SELECTED COUNTERFACTUALS William R. Thompson COUNTERFACTUALS AND HISTORICAL SCRIPTS ............................................... 33 The Lead Economy Sequence (from Sung China to the United States) ............................................ 35 EIGHT COUNTERFACTUALS .................................................................................... 38 CONCLUSION............................................................................................................. 50 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 52 ix CHAPTER 3—CONTINUITIES AND TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE EVOLUTION OF WORLD-SYSTEMS Christopher Chase-Dunn THE COMPARATIVE EVOLUTIONARY WORLD-SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE ........ 60 TIME HORIZONS ....................................................................................................... 63 50,000 YEARS ............................................................................................................. 64 5,000 YEARS ............................................................................................................... 65 500 YEARS ................................................................................................................. 66 TRANSFORMATIONS BETWEEN MODES ............................................................. 67 STAGES OF WORLD CAPITALIST DEVELOPMENT: SYSTEMIC CYCLES OF ACCUMULATION ..................................................... 68 ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION ................................................................................. 69 The Financial Meltdown of 2007-2008 ..................................................... 71 The World Revolution of 20xx .................................................................. 72 The Pink Tide ............................................................................................... 73 The Meltdown and the Countermovements ............................................ 77 The Arab Spring .......................................................................................... 78 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................................... 79 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................. 80 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 80 CHAPTER 4—GEOPOLITICAL CONDITIONS OF INTERNATIONALISM, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND WORLD LAW Randall Collins THE MILITARY-CENTERED GEOPOLITICAL THEORY OF STATE POWER ........................................................................... 90 THE GEOPOLITICS OF WAR IN AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, AND PAKISTAN ........ 93 THE GEOPOLITICS OF INTERNATIONAL COALITIONS ...................................... 98 STATE BUREAUCRATIZATION AS BASIS FOR RULE OF LAW ........................................................................................ 100 SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR EXPANSION OF WORLD LAW .............................. 105 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 107 x CHAPTER 5—CONTEMPORARY GLOBALIZATION AND NEW CIVILIZATIONAL FORMATIONS Shmuel N. Eisenstadt INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 112 CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARENAS AND IN THE CONSTITUTION OF HEGEMONIES .................................................... 114 INTERCIVILIZATIONAL SETTINGS— ANTI-GLOBALIZATION MOVEMENTS AND TRANSFORMATION OF MOVEMENTS AND IDEOLOGIES OF PROTEST .................................. 115 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 121 CHAPTER 6—THE ‘RETURN’ OF RELIGION AND THE CONFLICTED CONDITION OF WORLD ORDER Roland Robertson INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 124 THE PROBLEM OF DISCIPLINARITY .................................................................... 125 CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................... 132 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 133 CHAPTER 7—CULTURE AND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE GLOBAL SYSTEM Ervin Laszlo THE CULTURAL ROOTS OF THE UNSUSTAINABILITY OF THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD ................................................................................................ 138 The Strands of Unsustainability .............................................................. 139 THE NEED FOR CULTURAL MUTATION .............................................................. 144 GROUND RULES FOR HARMONIZING THE DIVERSITY OF THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD ................................................................................................ 144 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 146 xi CHAPTER 8—MEASURING GLOBALIZATION—OPENING THE BLACK BOX: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF GLOBALIZATION INDICES Axel Dreher, Noel Gaston, Pim Martens, and Lotte Van Boxem INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 150 GLOBALIZATION INDICES .................................................................................... 151 THE RELEVANCE OF GLOBALIZATION INDICES ............................................... 165 CAN WE REALLY MEASURE GLOBALIZATION? ................................................. 170 IS THE MEASUREMENT OF GLOBALIZATION A DEAD END? ................................................................................................. 171 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................................... 172 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 172 CHAPTER 9—ON FREE TRADE, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND THE WTO Rafael Reuveny INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 178 THE EFFECTS OF TRADE ON THE ENVIRONMENT ........................................... 180 Mechanism One: Direct Effects................................................................ 180 Mechanism Two: Indirect Effect .............................................................. 182 PERPETUAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT ...................... 185 WTO AND CLIMATE CHANGE: THE ROAD AHEAD .......................................... 188 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 191 CHAPTER 10—THE E-WASTE STREAM IN THE WORLD-SYSTEM R. Scott Frey INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 196 ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE AND SUSTAINABILITY IN THE WORLD-SYSTEM .............................................................................. 197 E-WASTE IN THE WORLD-SYSTEM ...................................................................... 198 Nature and Scope of E-Waste .................................................................. 198 Steps in Dismantling Computers ............................................................. 199 Health and Environmental Risks Associated with Computer Dismantling ..................................................................... 201 EVALUATING THE COSTS AND BENEFITS .......................................................... 204 What is to be done? And who should Do It?.......................................... 205 CONCLUDING REMARKS ....................................................................................... 208 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 208 xii CHAPTER 11—GREAT POWER POLITICS FOR AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT: AN OVERVIEW ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF THE EU’S AND CHINA’S COOPERATION WITH THE CONTINENT Zinsê Mawunou and Chunmei Zhao INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 214 COOPERATION WITH AFRICA: STRATEGIES FROM THE EU AND CHINA .... 214 Introductory Background of Conventions and Agreements between the EU and Africa ................................................................ 214 Chinese Strategy of Cooperation with Africa ........................................ 220 The Evolution of Sino-African Development Cooperation, 1955–1979 ........................................................................................... 220 China-Africa Relations in the Post-1970s Reform Period ..................... 221 The Post-1990 Reforms ............................................................................ 221 Impact of the EU’s and China’s Cooperation on Africa ......................... 222 CONCLUSION........................................................................................................... 228 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 229 CHAPTER 12—CONNECTING LOGISTICS NETWORKS GLOBALLY VIA THE UN SINGLE WINDOW CONCEPT Michael Linke TECHNICAL DIMENSIONS OF A SINGLE WINDOW .......................................... 237 Single Authority ........................................................................................ 237 Single Automated System ........................................................................ 238 Automated Information Transaction System......................................... 238 SINGLE WINDOW CASE STUDIES ........................................................................ 240 Variations in Single Window Implementation ....................................... 241 Mauritius .................................................................................................... 241 Sweden ....................................................................................................... 242 The Netherlands ........................................................................................ 243 The United States of America .................................................................. 243 ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE MANAGEMENT (EAM) AS AN I.T. DISCIPLINE............................................................................................... 244 Conceptual and historical dimension of the term EAM ....................... 244 Architecture frameworks as an auxiliary ............................................... 245 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SINGLE WINDOW CONCEPT AND ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE ...................................................................... 245 SWIF and TOGAF ADM ............................................................................. 246 Overview of SWIF Methodology ............................................................. 246 Integrating Security into a Single Window System .............................. 248 CONCLUSION........................................................................................................... 249 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 250 xiii CHAPTER 13—THE RECENT GLOBAL CRISIS UNDER THE LIGHT OF THE LONG WAVE THEORY Tessaleno C. Devezas 1. 2. 3. 4. 5 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 254 THE FOUR AGENTS ....................................................................................... 255 NOTES ON THE USED SETS OF DATA ........................................................ 256 SPIKE-LIKE GROWTHS ................................................................................. 257 SIGNALS OF SATURATION ......................................................................... 260 COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL OUTPUT UNDER A LARGER TIMEFRAME ................................................................................ 266 SCRUTINIZING THE RECENT RECORD OF THE GLOBAL OUTPUT .......................................................................................... 272 SHRINKING RECESSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS ................................... 274 MADDISON’S PHASES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ................................... 276 GOLD—THE MASTER OF COMMODITIES ................................................. 281 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................... 289 REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 291 CHAPTER 14—LOCAL SOLUTIONS IN A GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT: FACILITATING NATIONAL STRATEGIES IN NEW ZEALAND Jim Sheffield 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. xiv A NEW ZEALAND RESPONSE TO GLOBALIZATION ................................ 296 THEORY DEVELOPMENT .............................................................................. 297 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................ 302 FACILITATING SCIENCE FUNDING ............................................................. 303 FACILITATING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.............................................. 305 FACILITATING REGIONAL PLANNING....................................................... 308 6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................ 308 6.2 Before the meeting............................................................................. 310 6.3 During the meeting ............................................................................ 312 6.4 After the meeting ............................................................................... 314 6.5 Summary of findings.......................................................................... 315 DISCUSSION................................................................................................... 315 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................. 318 REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 319 APPENDIX ...................................................................................................... 322 Session Evaluation Questionnaire* ......................................................... 322 CHAPTER 15—GLOBAL BIFURCATION: THE DECISION WINDOW Ervin Laszlo THE BAU (BUSINESS AS USUAL) SCENARIO ..................................................... 326 The TT (Timely Transformation) Scenario ............................................. 327 CHAPTER 16—TOMORROW’S TOURIST: FLUID AND SIMPLE IDENTITIES Ian Yeoman INTRODUCTION: WHICH IDENTITY .................................................................... 334 FLUID IDENTITY ...................................................................................................... 335 SIMPLE IDENTIFY.................................................................................................... 341 CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................... 344 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 345 CHAPTER 17—WORLD ENERGY AND CLIMATE IN THE TWENTYFIRST CENTURY IN THE CONTEXT OF HISTORICAL TRENDS: CLEAR CONSTRAINTS TO FUTURE GROWTH Vladimir V. Klimenko and Alexey G. Tereshin INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 348 GLOBAL RESOURCES OF FOSSIL FUELS AND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND PROSPECTIVE ENERGY BALANCE IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY.............................................................. 350 ATMOSPHERE AND CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ........................................................................... 357 CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................ 361 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................... 361 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 361 xv CHAPTER 18—WILL THE GLOBAL CRISIS LEAD TO GLOBAL TRANSFORMATIONS? Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev GLOBAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CRISIS AND THE NECESSITY OF CHANGES ....................................................................................................... 366 1. Global causes of the global crisis ........................................................ 367 2. Why have classical features of previous economic crises manifested in the current crisis? ........................................................................... 369 3. Financial speculation: does it have a positive side? ......................... 371 4. Financial currents as the world pension fund? ................................. 374 5. Feeling of the necessity of changes ................................................... 381 ON THE POSSIBLE WAYS OF WORLD SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ..................... 385 1. Change of leadership or a fundamental system modification? ....... 385 2. Hypothetical and Real Alternatives .................................................... 390 3. Will the Deficit of Global Governance and World Fragmentation Increase? ................................................................................................ 394 4. The Epoch of New Coalitions and Sovereignty Transformation...... 396 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 402 xvi Introduction GLOBALIZATION AS A LINK BETWEEN THE PAST AND THE FUTURE Jim Sheffield, Andrey Korotayev, & Leonid Grinin W e see globalization as the growth of the sizes of social systems and the inй crease in the complexity of intersocietal linksк Thusи in certain respectsи gloй balization may be regarded as a process connecting the pastи the presentи and the future—as a sort of bridge between the past and the futureк The title and the composition of the present volume reflect this ideaк Globalizationц Yesterdayи Todayи and Tomorrow is distinguished by its focus on the systemic aspects of globalization processesк Politicalи economicи geographicи ecoй logicalи socialи culturalи ethnicи religious and historical processes are analyzed and their single and joint impacts on globalization are discussedк The purpose is to compleй ment more objective or ‘technical’ globalization narratives with more direct accounts of social and emotional issuesк There are a number of publications dealing with particular aspects of globalizaй tionк Howeverи the growing complexity has increased the interrelatedness among all countriesк Recurrent economic and political crises that have global repercussions demand new approachesк This book provides a wider range of views on globalizaй tion than some other globalization journals and booksк In particularи we believe that seeking perspectives that cross organizationalи geographic and cultural boundaries may aid in reducing misunderstandings and diminish the negative aspects of gloй balizationк The global financial crisis has only emphasized the need to develop local solutions in a global environment and at the same time to search for global solutions to common problemsк New approaches are required that demonstrate an appreciaй tion of the ‘local’ in particular politicalи economicи socialи cultural and geographic conй textsи while simultaneously promoting effective change in response to pressing global issuesк Introductionц Globalization эs э Link юetween The Past эnd The Future | xix Globalizationц Yesterdayи Todayи and Tomorrow provides a multiйfaceted analysis of globalization that is based on the understandings of authors working in both Westй ern and nonйWestern traditionsк We believe that current events such as the global financial crisis illustrate that discussion should not be limited to particular geographic regions or narrowlyйdefined methods of analysisк The perspectives in the book are the result of cooperation with scholars from different countriesк They provide visions of global processes from both the developed and developing countriesи including those in эfricaи эsiaи эmericaи эustralia and Oceaniaи Westи Eastи яentral and South Europeи Russia etcк Globalization is a very broad concept not only with respect to the diversity of regionsи culturesи and actorsи but also with respect to the diversity of analytical apй proaches that can be employed to study itк The articles in this book embrace the need to cover a variety of aspects and dimensions of globalizationи and to see both its loй cal and its global manifestationsк From our perspectiveи globalization studies imply research that is not just limited to the most popular spheres of economic and political globalizationи but also includes the study of global problems such as climatic changeи cultural globalizationи and so onк In summaryи the special character of the Globalizationц Yesterdayи Todayи and Toй morrow is that it delivers a broad international and multicultural spectrum of issues associated with globalizationи including the impact of globalization on particular culй turalйgeographic regionsк Organization The нф articles are grouped into three sectionsк эs suggested by the titleи these adй dress aspects of the pastи present and future of globalizationк Part I др articlesе adй dresses globalization in historyк Part II днм articlesе addresses contemporary globalizaй tionк Part III др articlesе addresses globalization in the futureк PART I—GLOBALIZATION IN HISTORY нк Leonid Grinin and эndrey Korotayev contribute to the history of globalization an analysis of the nature of global processes and causes of increasing integrationк They propose a history of globalization that draws on a special methodology and a worldйsystem approach based on the development of spatial links over seven periods of time starting with the эgrarian Revolution дfour before and three after the great geographic discoveriesек The time periods range from xx | She eldи Korotayevи в Grinin before the рth millennium юяE to the онst centuryк The types of spatial links described range from local and regional links to global and planetary links through continental and intercontinental onesк Evidence is presented for each periodк This includes for instance the existence of largeйscale trade in metals as early as рth millennium юяEи and the social impact of intercontinental trade in the late нst millennium юяEк The evidence also includes a density and diversity of transcontinental links su cient to transmit disease дbubonic plagueе from the Far East to the эtlantic in two decades днппмsйнпрмsеи and the comparability of some aspects of global integration prior to the great geographic discoveries with more recent periodsк The authors note that globalization began at least as early as рth thousand юяEк The proposed system of spatial links addresses shortcomings in previous systems that tended to underestimate the scale of spatial links in the preйindustrial eraк ок William Thompson contributes to the history of political and economic globalization an analysis of the significance of global eventsк He argues that the way we make sense of world politics and episodes of accelerated globalization depends on our historical scriptsи and that these vary considerablyк It is not so much a matter of disagreeing about what happened in the past as it is the one of disagreeing about which past events were most significant to an understanding of international relations processesк Validating one person’s historical script versus someone else’s is a highly problematic exerciseк яounterfactualsи howeverи can be utilized to at least suggest or reinforce the asserted significance of different versions of politicalйeconomic historyк э series of eight counterfactuals encompassing the past нммм years are harnessed to buttress the utility of framing the development of the modern world economy around a chain of lead economies and system leaders extending back to Sung яhina and forward to the United Statesк These potential turning points matter in part because they did not go down the counterfactual path but might haveк They matter even more because of the path that was pursued at each pointк They matter because they created a politicalйeconomic structure for world politics that has first emergedи then evolved andи so farи enduredк The implications of what did happen дnot what did not happenе are still with us todayк пк яhristopher яhaseйDunn contributes to the globalization in history section a discussion on the continuities and transformations of systemic logicк Modes of accumulation in the world historical evolutionary perspective are described and the prospects for systemic transformation in the next several decades evaluatedк The article also considers the meaning of the recent global financial meltdown by comparing it with earlier debt crises and periods of collapseк Has this been Introductionц Globalization эs э Link юetween The Past эnd The Future | xxi just another debt crisis like the ones that have periodically occurred over the past омм yearsи or is it part of the end of capitalism and the transformation to a new and different logic of social reproductionы The author considers how the contemporary network of global counterйmovements and progressive national regimes are seeking to transform the capitalist worldйsystem into a more humaneи sustainable and egalitarian civilization and how the current crisis is affecting the network of counterйmovements and regimesи including the Pink Tide populist regimes in Latin эmericaи and the antiйausterity movementsк The ways in which the New Global Left is similar toи and different fromи earlier global counterйmovements are also describedк The discussion contributes to the development of a comparative and evolutionary framework that examines what is really new about the current global situation and what constitutes therefore collectively rational responsesк рк Randall яollins completes Part I with a geopolitical analysis of key globalization events in the pastи presentи and futureк эs historical sociologists in the tradition of Weber have documentedи the state’s existence has depended on its military powerи which varies in degree of monopolizationи of legitimacyи and of extent of territory controlledк Geopolitical principles дcomparative resource advantageи positional or marchland advantageи logistical overextensionе have determined both the яhinese dynastic cyclesи and the balance of power in European historyк In нхфм the author was successful in using these geopolitical principles to predict the strains which brought about the collapse of the Soviet empireи which was itself a continuation of the older Russian empireк The same geopolitical principles continue to apply to recent wars in эfghanistanи Iraqи and Pakistanк Guerrilla wars differ from conventional wars by relying especially on geopolitical principles of promoting enemy overextensionк Geopolitics encompasses both war and diplomacyи the means by which coalitions among states are organizedк The rule of international law depends on a dominant coalition upheld by favorable geopolitical conditionsч and on the extension of bureaucracy via state penetrationи but now on a worldйwide scaleк Randall яollins answers two key questions regarding historical globalization processesц “Is the world of the early онst century moving towards a new era of international rule of law to support universal human rightsы” and “Where does the opposition to universal human rights come fromы” His answers to both of these questions demonstrate that international rule of law is not an alternative to geopoliticsи but is successful only under specific geopolitical conditionsк xxii | She eldи Korotayevи в Grinin PART II—CONTEMPORARY GLOBALIZATION ск Shmuel Eisenstadt examines some specific aspects of contemporary globalization as they bear on the crystallization of new distinct civilizational formationsк He describes new and very intensive processes of contemporary globalization characterized by growing interconnectedness between economicи cultural and political processesк The full impact of these intertwined globalization processes can only be understood within the new historical contextк The author notes that different religions are now acting in a common civilizational settingк In this context competition and struggles between religions often became vicious—yet at the same time there are tendencies toward the development of interfaith meetings and encounters rooted in the original program of modernityк For instanceи many of the criticisms of the Enlightenment project made by Sayyid Qutbи possibly the most eminent fundamentalist Islamic theologianи are similar to the major religious and ‘secular’ critics of Enlightenment from de Maistreи the romanticsи and those whoи in яharles Taylor’s words emphasized the ‘expressivist dimension of human experience’к These premises implied the possibility of cooperation between different faithsк Movements to reform globalization philosophies and civilizational premises have taken place in a variety of local and regional contextsи including ‘centers’ such as the European Union and various ‘peripheries’к тк Roland Robertson investigates the return of religion to the study of world politics and globalizationк He argues that religion has been neglected in international relations ever since the Peace of Westphalia in нтрфк This neglect has largely occurred because of the primacy given to changes and events in the Westи particularly since the formal separation of church and state and its imposition on or emulation by Eastern societiesк The study of international relations was insulated from the study of religion and vice versaк The apparent eruption of Islam onto the world scene as symbolized and expressed by the events of хлнн was greeted with surprise in many academic disciplinesк Howeverи the degree to which the global conflict between the two major actors—namely alйQaeda and the regime in the USэ—has assumed heavily religious terms cannot responsibly be questionedк The recent heightened concern with religion in globalizationи and the globalization of religionи provides the opportunity to undertake historical discussion from new perspectives which overcome the normal Western view that religion is not important in Realpolitikк Moreoverи it is argued that much of the neglect of religion in work on world affairs has largely been the product of the inaccurate perception of ongoing secularizationк The overall discussion is framed by some objections to the limiting consequences of disciplinarityк Introductionц Globalization эs э Link юetween The Past эnd The Future | xxiii ук Ervin Laszlo argues that the values and associated behaviors of the dominant culture of the contemporary world gave rise to a globally extended system that is not sustainable in its present formк If a cataclysmic breakdown caused by unchecked global warming is to be avertedи the influential culture that shapes today’s world must changeк Humanity can no longer afford to be dominated by a narrowly materialist and manipulative culture focused on egoйcenteredи companyйcenteredи or nationйcentered shortйterm benefitи with no regard to the wider system that frames existence on this planetк яonsciously moving toward a harmonious system of cooperative societies focused on the shared objective of sustaining the systems of life on the planet is an urgent necessityк To this end a mutation is needed in the cultures of the contemporary worldи so as to create the values and aspirations that would bring together today’s individually diverse and largely selfйcentered societies in the shared mission of ensuring the sustainability of the global system of humanity in the framework of the biosphereк The global system is highly diverse todayи but it is insu ciently coordinatedк яreating a higher level of unity within its diversity is intrinsically feasibleц it calls for systemйmaintaining cooperation among the diverse societies that make up the systemк фк эxel Dreherи Noel Gastonи Pim Martensи and Lotte Van юoxem discuss the measurement of globalization with a view to advancing the understanding of globalization indicesк яan globalization be better understood by measuring itы What are the intellectual and political implications of the existing globalization indicesы What are the attributes and limitations of globalization indicesы In what fields can they be usedы Is the objective assessment of both the causes and consequences of globalization an essential agenda for contemporary societiesк Do positive economicи social and political analyses require data and are globalization indices a most promising means for providing itы э central theme is the size of the gap between the quantitative and the qualitative analysis of globalizationк They argue that if globalization indices are to make a substantive contributionи they ought to bridge some existing gaps in our understanding of globalizationк In confronting new questions on the essential nature of globalizationи interdisciplinary cooperation is requiredк It would be fruitful for academics from the quantitative side дmodelingи conclusive statementsи certainty and proofsе and qualitative side дanalysisи discussionи conceptual revisionи background and textual formе to sit together and work on the challengesк Despite the different methodologiesи choice of variables and weightsи and so onи new cooperative frameworks are neededк xxiv | She eldи Korotayevи в Grinin хк Rafael Reuveny critically examines the proposition that a free global market benefits the environmentк The aim is to introduce the insights to be gained from a proposed research program focusing on the WTO and the environment in the context of climate changeк This research programe explores the link between climate changeи which has recently emerged as the greatest environmental threatи and world tradeи which has grown continuously since WWIIк The growth of world tradeи facilitated by the GэTTйWTO regimeи evokes an important questionк Is this regime good for the environmentи or has it contributed to the increase of greenhouse gasesи the primary driver of climate changeы While this question cannot be fully answered in this paper aloneи it is important to consider it now because many of the expected damages caused by climate change may be considerable and nonreversibleк эfter discussing the state of knowledge on the effects of trade on the environmentи the author evaluates whether the biosphere can accommodate perpetual economic growthк The possibility is considered that the global community could decide to create a new World Environmental Protection эgency that would give priority to environmental considerations of trade policyк нмк Scott Frey argues that globalization and sustainability are contradictory tendencies in the current worldйsystemк He examines this dichotomy in the context of a particular case—the transfer by transnational corporations of electronic waste from the more developed countries to the less developed zones of the worldйsystemк He argues that such exports дwhich total more than пм million tons per yearе reduce sustainability and put humans and the environment in recipient countries at substantial riskк The discussion proceeds in several stepsк Environmental justice and sustainability in the worldйsystem are first examinedк This is followed by a discussion of the eйwaste trade in the worldйsystemк The extent to which this trade has negative healthи safetyи and environmental consequences in Guiyuи яhina дhome to an estimated нсмиммм eйwaste workersе is outlinedк The neoйliberal contention that such exports are economically beneficial to the core and periphery is critically examinedк Policies proposed as solutions to the problem of eйwaste tra c in Guiyu and the worldйsystem are critically reviewedк The paper concludes with an assessment of the likelihood that existing ‘counterйhegemonic’ globalization forces will overcome the tensions between globalization and environmental justice and sustainabilityк ннк Zinsê Mawunou and яhunmei Zhao discuss the great power politics around эfrica’s developmentк The policies of the European Union дEUе and яhina are compared and contrastedк эfter the эfrican countries got independenceи the European Union дformerly the EEяе and яhina demonstrated a willingness to Introductionц Globalization эs э Link юetween The Past эnd The Future | xxv contribute to the improvement of socioйeconomic development of эfricaк юoth partnered a longstanding series of measures to enhance эfrica’s socioйeconomic prosperityк More recently the longstanding relationships with EU countries have been challenged by the unprecedented scale of яhina’s involvement on the continentк This article analyzes these trends by providing an introduction to diverse EU – эfrica agreements and conventionsи on the one handи and the present яhinese strategy of cooperating with эfricaи on the otherк It is concluded that эfrican countries have been able to take advantage of the яhinese strategy to improve their economic situationк Secondlyи the article describes the economic outcomes associated with the involvement of these actors in эfricaк The article concludes with some suggestions to those actors as well as to эfrican countries emphasizing that even though the partnerships with the EU and яhina move эfrica in the right direction there are gaps that should be addressedк нок Michael Linke discusses the importance to globalization of crossйborder logistics flows supported by advanced communications networks such as the UN Single Window conceptк яustoms procedures дincluding complex countryйspecific feesи tariffsи and taxesе typically involve нс or more agencies and multiple copies of paper documentsк The result is what many businesses view as an inhibitive and stifling system that is overly complicated and slows the process of tradeк The UN Single Window concept is a facility that allows parties involved in trade and transport to lodge standardized information and documents at a single entry point to fulfil all importи exportи and transitйrelated regulatory requirementsк юecause the information is electronicи data elements need only be submitted onceк Overallи the effect of a single window on a government is far reachingк The changes will propagate through the economy and allow business to engage in international trade more easilyк Several approaches and implementations are describedи although all of them need proper planning to achieve worldwide penetrationк Enterprise эrchitecture Management дEэMе as a specialized IT strategy discipline can help to manage this complex challenge of integrating application landscapes into different existing UN integration frameworksк нпк Tessaleno Devezas reviews the recent global crisis under the light of the Kondratieff long wave theoryк The variation in four economicsйrelated agents is analysed with an eye to their combined long term effectsк The author states that the holistic analysis of long term effects provides insight into what happened in the past in the global economy and sheds some light about possible future trajectoriesк The four agents considered areц world populationи its global output дGDPеи gold price and the Dow Jones indexк эlthough many other measures existи these four agents function as indicators that represent significant aspects xxvi | She eldи Korotayevи в Grinin of the world economic realmк The application of analytical tools such as spectral analysisи moving averages and logistic curves to time series data about the historical unfolding of these four agents suggests that the recent global crisis may be a mix of two tendenciesк The first tendency is a selfйcorrection mechanism that brought the global output back to its original learning natural growth patternк The second tendency is a new pattern in the world economic orderк The evidence for Kondratieff long waves suggests that the present decade домнмйомоме will probably be one of worldwide economic expansionи corresponding to the second half of the expansion phase of the fifth Kйwaveк нрк Jim She eld seeks to answer two broad questionsц “How should New Zealand respond to the multipleи intertwined and fastйchanging impacts of globalizationы” and “What strategies are available to this small South Pacific country and how may these be facilitatedы” The answers are based on findings from empirical research on the facilitation of aspects of national policies in the domains of science fundingи economic development and regional growthк э wellйfunded science sector encourages entrepreneurial and innovative activity to be located in New Zealand and facilitates international knowledge transferк Economic development improves competitiveness in global marketsи including those in the эsiaйPacific regionк Regional planning in эucklandи New Zealand’s major growth areaи attracts skilled migrants and reduces the loss of New Zealandйborn citizens to эustralia and other countriesк The facilitation of these local solutions in a global environment is framed within the theoretical perspective of pluralism and communicative actionк Facilitating national policies required extensive consultation among a large number of stakeholders in different organizationsк The context was pluralistic—the objectives of social actors were divergent and power was diffusedк Electronic meeting technology was employedк The focus question isц ‘Does electronic discourse increase the success of local solutions in a global environmentы’ PART III—GLOBALIZATION IN THE FUTURE нск Ervin Laszlo writes with moral urgency about global bifurcation and the decision windowк He opens with the saying that our generation is the first in history that can decide whether it is the last in historyк His response is to remind us that our generation is also the first in history that can decide whether it will be the first generation of a new phase in historyк We have reached a watershed in our social and cultural evolutionк The sciences of systems tell us that when complex open systemsи such as living organismsи and also ecologies and societies of organismsи approach a condition of critical instabilityи they face a moment of truthц they Introductionц Globalization эs э Link юetween The Past эnd The Future | xxvii either transformи or break downк Two scenarios are developedк The first scenarioи business as usualи describes the impact of unchecked global warmingи waves of destitute migrants fleeing from areas of ecological disasterи and the destabilization that follows failed military solutionsк The second scenarioи timely transformationи describes the emergence and growth of popular movements for sustainability and peaceи increased action by nonйgovernmental organizations to revitalize regions ravaged by ecological disasterи reduced military budgetsи and a quest for social and ecological responsibilityк The choice between these scenarios is not yet madeк The question isи how much time is there to make a timely transformationы нтк Ian Yeoman explores two possible identities—fluid and simple—of the future tourist and the scenarios that favour the emergence of each identityк The scenario favouring the fluid identity enfolds like thisк The globalisation of tourism and increases in real wealth have meant tourists can take a holiday anywhere in the worldи whether it is the North Pole or the South Pole and everywhere in between including a day trip into outer space with Virgin Galacticк Increases in disposable income allow a real change in social orderи living standards and the desire for quality of life with tourism at the heart of this changeк This scenario is about the concept of self which is fluid and malleableк The self cannot be defined by boundaries within which the choice and the desire for self and new experiences drive tourist consumptionк The scenario favouring the simple identity enfolds like thisк э collapse in pension funds means people work longer and are less wealthy in retirementк эs wealth decreases a new thriftiness and desire for simplicity emergeк Web technologies are employed to search out bargainsи advice on the use of scarce leisure timeи and personal recommendationsк This paper examines the valuesи behavioursи trends and thinking of the future touristи either with a fluid or simple identityк нук Vladimir Klimenko and эlexey Tereshin analyze world energy and climate in the онst century in the context of historical trendsк яlear constraints to future growth are imposed based on the theory of institutional changeк The paper deals with global energy perspectives and forthcoming changes in the atmosphere and climate under the influence of anthropogenic and natural factorsк In the framework of the historical approach to energy development the forecast of the future global energy consumption for the present century is elaboratedи and its resource base and the global impact of the power sector on the atmosphere and climate against the background of natural factors’ influence are studiedк It is shown thatи following the historical path of global energy evolutionи the global xxviii | She eldи Korotayevи в Grinin energy consumption will remain within оф–ох billion tons of coal equivalent дtceе by the end of the centuryи with яOо emissions peaking in the middle of this centuryк In this scenarioи the яOо concentrations will not exceed смм ppmи and the global temperature should rise by нкс °я by онмми with the growth rate not exceeding the adaptation limits of the biosphereк нфк Leonid Grinin and эndrey Korotayev analyze the global causes of the contemporary global financialйeconomic crisis and the possibility of eliminating the most acute problems that generated the crisisк In the first part of paper they consider both the negative role of the world financial flows and their important positive functionsи including the ‘insurance’ of social guaranties at the global scaleк n one handи anarchic and extremely rapid development of new financial centers and financial flows contributed to the outbreak of the crisisк The latter was amplified by the nonйtransparency of many financial instrumentsи which led to the concealment of risks and their global underestimationк On the other handи new financial technologies decrease risks in a rather effective wayи and they expand possibilities to attract and accumulate enormous capitalsи actorsи and marketsк The modern financial sector also contributes to the provision of insurance for social funds at the global scaleк The participation of pension and insurance funds in financial operations leads to the globalization of the social sphereк яountries poor in capitalи but with a large young populationи are increasingly involved in a very important дthough not readily apparentе process of supporting the elderly portion of the population in the West through the vigorous unification of the world’s financial flowsк These flows are becoming more standardizedи more mobileи and more anonymousк They represent perhaps the greatest threat and the greatest promise of globalizationк The second part of the article considers some global scenarios of the World Sysй tem’s near future and describes a few characteristics of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New яoalitions’к The article attempts to answer the following questionsц What are the implications of the economic weakening of the USэ as the World System centerы Will the future World System have a leaderы Will it experience a global governance deficitы Will the world fragmentation increaseы The authors suppose that in нс–ос years our world will be both similar to the present and already substantially different from itк Global changes are forthcomingи but not all of them will take a distinct shapeк яonй trary to thatи new contents may be covered by old outdated surfaces дas in the Late Middle эges the emerging centralized state was not quite distinctly seen behind the traditional system of relationships between the crownи major seniorsи and citiesек One Introductionц Globalization эs э Link юetween The Past эnd The Future | xxix may say that these will be such changes that could prepare the world to the transition to a new phase of globalization дit will be very fortunate if there are grounds to call it the phase of sustainable globalizationе whose contours are not yet clearк xxx | She eldи Korotayevи в Grinin Chapter 1 THE ORIGINS OF GLOBALIZATION Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev The main aim of this article is to analyze the processes and scales of global integration in an historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. There have already been numerous studies on this subject, but there are still many points that need further research, clarification, and new interpretation. Most researchers into globalization are convinced that its origins are to be traced back to a point deep in history, although there are diverse views as regards the exact starting point. The article analyzes different approaches to this problem. The subject of this article relates to the integration that began a few thousand years BCE in the framework of the Afroeurasian world-system and whose links became so well-developed long before the Great Geographic Discoveries that they could be described as global (albeit in a limited sense). However, among some researchers there is still a tendency to underestimate the scale of those links in the pre-Industrial era. Thus, it appears necessary to provide additional empirical support for our thesis. A special methodology is also required, i.e., the use of the world-system approach. We analyze some versions of periodization of globalization history. We also propose our own periodization using as its basis the growth of the scale of intersocietal links as an indicator of the level of globalization development. Keywords: globalizationи worldйsystemи эfroeurasian worldйsystemи World Systemи global communicationи cycles of political hegemonyи agrarian revolutionи industrial revolutionи technologiesк яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | н T INTRODUCTION: THE AIMS OF THE ARTICLE he present article has been prepared within an emerging field that can be termed the “History of Globalization”к This aspect of Globalization Studies deals with the historical dimension of globalizationк Its main goal is to analyze proй cesses and scales of global integration in an historical perspectiveи starting with the эgrarian Revolutionк Those integration processes дdepending on the position of a particular researcherе may be regarded as preparatory stages of the globalizationи or as its initial phasesк There have already been several studies carried out on this subй ject дsee ForemanйPeckи нххфч Held et al., нхххч O’Rourke в Williamsonи нхххч Hopkinsи оммои оммрч Sharpи оммфч Lewis в Mooreи оммхек Howeverи there are still many points that need further researchи clarificationи and new interpretationк Most researchers into globalization recognize that its origins are to be traced more or less deeply in historyи though there are diverse views as regards the exact starting pointкн Yetи it is clear that it would be very productive to search for the origins of globalization in the depths of historyк We contend that to a certain extent World History can be regarded as a movement toward increasingly large social systemsи their integrationи andи thusи as a history of globalizationк Thereforeи in history and soй ciology the investigation is broadening with respect to the historical development of globalization processes дsee Grininи омннbи омннcи омноaч Grinin в Korotayevи оммхaи оммхbи омноек It is no coincidence that growing interest in globalization has increased awareness of the trend often described as the “historical dimension of globalization”к эmong such movements Global History is most worth notingч and its coreи according to Mazlish and Iriye доммсеи is just the history of globalizationк эccording to various authorsи globalization has been going on either since the first movement of people out of эfrica into other parts of the worldч or since the пrd millennium юя дwhenи according to Frankи the World System emerged [Frank нххми нххпч Frankи Gills нххп]еч or since the soйcalled эxial эge дJaspersи нхспе in the нst milй lennium юяч or only from the Great Geographical Discoveriesч or in the нхth centuryч or after the year нхрсч or only since the late нхфмs дsee also Footnote нек Each of these dates has its own justificationк нк Some scholars say that it started already in the Stone эgeи some others maintain that it began in the пrd millennium юяEч there also such datings as the эxial эge of the нst millennium юяEи the Great Geographic Discoveries periodи the нхth centuryи нхрси or even the late нхфмsк Each of these datings has certain meritsк For their review seeи e.g.и Tracy нххмч Menard нххнч юentley нхххч O’Rourke and Williamй son нхххи омммч Lewisи Moore оммхч яonversi омнмч Held et al. нхххч омннч оммтц нутч оммпи etcк о | Grinin в Korotayev Some researchers discuss the problem in the context of whether one should speak about globalization before the start of the Great Geographical Discoveriesи as a result of which the idea of the Earth as a globe was no longer just the opinion of a group of scientists and became general or public knowledge дяhumakovи омннек In spite of this point of viewи there is no doubt that the historical dimension of globalization is quite challenging дsee Grininи омннfек The subject of this article is related to the integration that began a few thousand years юяE in the framework of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem and whose links became so well developed long before the Great Geographic Discoveries that they could be described as global (albeit in a limited sense)к Howeverи among some researchers there is still a tendency to underestimate the scale of those links in the preйIndustriй al eraк Thusи it appears necessary to provide additional empirical support for above mentioned pointк It is also necessary to apply a special type of methodology i.e., the worldйsystem approachк There have been several periodizations proposed for the history of globalizationк The most wideйspread type is trinomialи which is sometimes considered to be the most logicalк Gellner днхффеи for exampleи believes that three periods are the optimum number for a periodizationк Such an example is as followsц дне эrchaic globalizationч дое Early modern globalizationчо дпе Modern globalization дHopkins оммпч юaylyи оммрек Trinomial periodizations are also used by those who suggest that globalization begins with the period of the Great Geographic Discoveriesк For exampleи Friedman доммсе divides the history of globalization into three periodsц “Globalization н” днрхо– нфммеи “Globalization о” днфммйоммме and “Globalization п” доммм—presentек He states that Globalization н involves the globalization of countriesи Globalization о involves the globalization of companies and Globalization п involves the globalization of indiй vidualsк Howeverи the apparent convenience of trinomial periodizations does not necesй sarily mean that they are more relevantк We believe that the number of periods within the given periodization should rather be determined by the nature of the process in questionк ок This phase is also denoted as “protoйglobalization”ч but this notion does not appear quite appropriй ateи becauseи logicallyи a stage with a designation starting with “protoй” should not be placed in the middleч it should rather be the first stageк Henceи it appears much more logical to denote the stage of archaic globalization as protoglobalization phaseк яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | п There are periodizations constructed on other grounds—for exampleи the one develй oped by яhumakov домнне who determined the periodization of the evolution of global links on the basis of their scale дwhich reflects rather logically the general trend toward the growth of this scaleец не the “Period of Fragmentary Events” дtill сммм юPеч ое the “Period of Regional Events” дtill the нсth century яEеч пе the “Period of Global Events” дtill the midйомth centuryек The рth period дthe “Period of яosmic Expansion”е in this periodization starts in нхсук This periodization appears validи but a few points need considerable clarification and reйinterpretationк First of allи as will be demonstrated belowи beginning with the second half of the нst millennium юяEи many events did not only expand beyond regional levelsи but could be measured on continental and transcontinental scalesк Even before the нst millennium юяE some events had regional and continental impact дsee belowек Evidence in support of this approach is presented below and a brief exposition can be found in Tables н and ок In the framework of this article we are attempting to complete the following tasksц нк To demonstrate that several thousand years ago дat least since the formation of the system of longйdistance largeйscale trade in metals in the рth millennium юяEе the scale of systematic trade relationships had already significantly outgrown the local level and had become regional дand even transcontinental to a certain extentеч ок To show that by the late нst millennium юяE the scale of processes and links within the эfroeurasian worldйsystem did not only exceed the regional level and reach the continental levelи but also went beyond continental limitsк Thus we contend that within this system marginal systemic contacts between agents of various levels дfrom societies to individualsе may be defined as transcontinentalчп пк To demonstrate that even prior to the Great Geographic Discoveries the scale of global integration to a certain extent could be comparable with that in more recent periodsк In particularи demographically even оммм years ago the effectively integrated part of humankind encompassed хмб of all the world populationк In the present article we are not attempting to describe the whole history of gloй balization in detailк Thereforeи a summary of our interpretation of its main phases may be found in Table нк In particularи we are basing our thesis on the following observaй tionц though the Great Geographic Discoveries made it possible to transform intersoй cietal links into global ones in a full sense of this notionи the period between нсмм and пк Note that here we are dealing not only with overland contactsи as since the late нst millennium юяE in some cases we encounter oceanic contacts—the most notable case is represented here by the Indian Ocean communication networkк р | Grinin в Korotayev нфмм яE was not yet fully global for a number of reasonsк Firstlyи not all the territories of the Earth had been discovered дэntarctica being the most important of theseеч secй ondlyи many societies in эustraliaи Oceaniaи and some parts of Inner эfrica had not experienced global contacts in any significant wayч thirdlyи some of the larger counй tries of East эsia had quite consciously isolated themselves from the rest of the worldч fourthlyи the extent of trade at this time could hardly be called global дsee O’Rourke в Williamsonи нхххи омммек In this regardи we consider the period from the late нсth century to the early нхth century as a special era when oceanic дintercontinentalе links were being establishedк яhronologically this period is almost identical with the one that was identified by Hopkins доммпе and юayly доммре as a period of protoйglobalizaй tion or early modern globalizationк Howeverи we believe our designation of this period reflects the scale and character of links in this period in a more accurate wayк Indeed the period starting in the early нхth century may well be described as “a very big gloй balization bang” дO’Rourke в Williamsonи омммек That is why we use the term “global” for links in this period which continued till the нхумsи after which the level of intersociй etal interconnectedness began to grow very rapidly дespecially from the early нххмsек It was during this period that it was recognized that we had entered a new period of interconnectedness that was termed “globalization” дmondialisation in Frenchек In orй der to distinguish this period from the previous we have described it as “planetary”и which reflectsи firstlyи the implications of space exploration дthese are the spaceлsatelй lite communication technologies which now secure unprecedented opportunities for communication with respect to their speedи densityи and diversityек Secondlyи we detail the involvement in the globalization process of those societies in эsiaи эfricaи and other regions which were weakly connected with the rest of the worldи because these links were rather limited and often imposed in a coercive mannerк Thirdlyи we discuss the notion that modern globalization has not realized all its potentialи that this process continuesи and when this period ends in the онst centuryи the level of interrelatedness will be truly planetaryи and almost any place in the world can and will be connected with almost any other placeк Of the у periods outlined above дand below in Table неи all except the first and second refer to historical globalizationк Note that this table does not take into account the information networks of the technological diffusion that acquired a transcontinental scale from the first emergence of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem дsee Korotayevи оммси оммти оммуи омноч Korotayevи Malkovи в Khaltourinaи оммтaи оммтbч ив и оммхч Grininи в Korotayevи омноек See some other qualifications belowк яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | с Type of spatial links (globalization level) Period 1. Till the 7th –6th millennium BCE 2. From the 7th –6th millennium till the Regional links second half of the 4th millennium BCE 3. From the second half of the 4th Regional-continental links millennium BCE to the irst half of the 1st millennium BCE 4. From the second half of the 1st Transcontinental links millennium BCE to the late 15th century CE 5. From the late 15th century to the early Oceanic (intercontinental) links 19th century 6. From the early 19th century to the Global links 1960s and 1970s 7. From the last third of the 20th century Planetary links to the mid-21st century Table 1. The growth of globalization level in the historical process Local links In Table о we present a description of the correlations between the globalizaй tion periods and such characteristics as spatial linksи political organization and level of technology which are very important for the history of globalizationк Our analysis suggests that the abovementioned marginal level of integration within the framework of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem was not something insignifiй cant or virtualк In factи it substantially influenced the general direction of development and significantly accelerated the advancement of many social systems whose rate of development would have been otherwise much slowerк It is clear that it took signals a relatively long time to get from one end of the worldйsystem to another—actuallyи many orders of magnitude longer than now—but still such signals were transmitted through the preйModern эfroeurasian worldйsystemи and they caused very significant transformationsк Howeverи the speed was not always so slowк For exampleи the buй bonic plague pandemic дwhich killed millionsе spread from the Far East to the эtй lantic Ocean within two decades in the нппмs and нпрмs дsee McNeillи нхутч Dolsи нхууч юorschи оммсек Such rapid and vigorous movements were directly related to the growing number of contacts between societies and their diversificationи which in turn opened the way to a rapid diffusion of pathogensкр рк Note that the Mongol warriors went from the Pacific zone to the эtlantic zone of Eurasia with a rather similar speedк т | Grinin в Korotayev Type of sociospatial links Period Forms of political organization Level of technology (production principles and production revolutions) Local links Regional links Continental links Up to the second half of the 4th millennium BCE (≈ 3500 BCE) The second half of the 4th millennium BCE – the irst half of the 1st millennium BCE (≈ 3500– 490 BCE) The second half of the 1st millennium BCE – the late 15th century CE (≈ 490 BCE – 1492 CE) Hunter-gatherer production principle, beginning of the agrarian production principle The second phase of the agrarian Early states and revolution; agrarian their analogues; the production irst empires principle reaches its maturity Pre-state (simple and medium complexity) political forms, the irst complex polities Rise of empires and irst developed states Intercontinental (oceanic) links The late 15th century Rise of developed – the early 19th states, irst mature century (≈ 1492– states 1821) Global links Mature states The early 19th and early forms century – the 1960s of supranational and 1970s entities Final phase of the agrarian production principle The irst phase of the industrial production principle and industrial revolution The second phase of the industrial revolution and the inal phase of the industrial production principle Formation of The start and supranational development entities, washing of scientiicStarting from the out of state information th Planetary links last third of the 20 sovereignty, search revolution whose century for new types of second phase is political unions and forecasted for the entities, planetary 2030s and 2040s governance forms Table 2. The correlation between spatial links, political organization and level of technology яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | у I—THE AFROEURASIAN WORLD-SYSTEM: A GENERAL OVERVIEW F or an analysis of the origins of globalization the traditions of various schools of thought should be examinedк Howeverи we believe that the worldйsystem apй proach is one of the most promising in this respectи as it was originally conй structed to solve this kind of taskк This approach may be used much more widely in this area due to its undoubted meritsк First of allи this approach is systemic and capable of analyzing processes on very wide temporal and spatial scalesк эs яhaseй Dunn and Hall днххуе emphasizeи within this approach the main unit of analysis is not a particular societyи or a particular state дas is usual in ordinary historical studй iesеи but a worldйsystemк Secondlyи the object of worldйsystem analysis is in many respects identical with the one of Global Studiesк Thirdlyи taking into consideration the interdisciplinary character of Global Studiesи they can only be enriched by the integration of new approachesк эs regards the aims of the present articleи the worldй system approach and its issues and terminology appear to be quite appropriate for the achievement of its goalsк The worldйsystem approach originated in the late нхтмs and нхумs in the works of юraudel днхупеи Frank днххми нххпеи Frank and Gills днххпеи Wallerstein днхфуеи яhaseй Dunn and Hall днххреи эmin et al. доммтеи and эrrighi and Silver днхххеи and was subй stantially developed afterwardsк The formation of this approach was connected to a considerable degree to the search for actual socially evolving units which are larger than particular societiesи statesи and even civilizationsи but whichи on the other handи have the qualities of real systemsк The most widely known version of the worldйsystem approach was developed by Wallerstein днхури нхфуи оммреи who believes that the modern worldйsystem was formed in the “long нтth century” дcкнрсм–нтсмек In his opinionи before that period there had been a very large number of other worldйsystemsк Those worldйsystems are classified by Wallerstein into three typesц не minisystemsч ое worldйeconomiesч пе worldйempiresк Minisystems were typical for foragersк The two other types дworldй economies and worldйempiresе are typical for agrarian дand especially complex and supercomplex agrarianе societiesк Worldйeconomies are politically decentralized systems of societies interconnected by real economic tiesк Wallerstein also uses the soйcalled “bulk goods criterion” to identify the “reality” of economic tiesи that is those ties which are manifested in masй sive flows of such basic goods as wheatи oreи cottonи toolsи and mass consumption ф | Grinin в Korotayev commodities etcк If the trade between two regions is limited to an exchange of “preciй osities”и thenи according to Wallersteinи we have no grounds to consider them parts of one worldйsystem in generalи and one worldйeconomy in particularк If a worldйeconomy becomes centralized politically within one empireи Wallerstein днхуре maintains that we should speak about a worldйempireи not worldйeconomyк In generalи worldйeconomies were characterized by a higher socioeconomic dynamism than worldйempiresи but almost all the preйcapitalist worldйeconomies were sooner or later transformed into worldйempiresкс Wallerstein днхуре also contends that there was just one significant exception from this ruleи which was analyzed in considerable detail in his first “worldйsystem” monographк In “the long нтth century” the Western European worldйeconomy blocked the tendency toward its transformation into a worldйempire and experienced a capiй talist transformation that led to the creation of a worldйeconomy of a newи capitalist typeк This new worldйsystem had already experienced a rapid expansion in “the long нтth century” andи after a phase of relative stabilization дin the second half of the нуth century and нфth centuryеи it encompassed the whole world by the нхth centuryк Though the version of the worldйsystem approach developed by Frank днххми нххпч Frank в Gills нххпе is much less well known than Wallerstein’sи we believe it might have even more scientific valueк Frank brings our attention to the point that within Wallerstein’s approach the very notion of a “worldйsystem” loses much of its senseк Indeedи if the preйcapitalist world consisted of hundreds of “worldйsystems”и it is not quite clear why each of them should be denoted as a “WORLDйsystem”к Frank’s approach is somewhat more logicalк He contends that we should speak only about one World System дand he prefers to denote it using capital initial lettersек эccording to Frankи the World System originated many millennia before the “long нтth century” in the Near Eastк This idea is clearly expressed in the title of the volume he edited with Gills—The World System: Five Hundred Years or Five Thousand? дFrank в Gillsи нххпек This World System had gone through a long series of expansion and conй traction phases until in the нхth century it encompassed the whole worldк We believe a synthesis of the both the main versions of the worldйsystem apй proach is quite possibleи and in the present article we will analyze the processes that contributed to the emergence and growth of the эfroeurasian worldйsystemи which ск Worldйempires also frequently disintegrated and could be replaced with worldйeconomiesи but this was just a beginning of a new cycle ending with the formation of a new worldйempire in place of the worldйeconomyк яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | х may be considered the direct predecessor of the modern planetary World Systemк It was already more than оммм years ago when the эfroeurasian worldйsystem became connected from one end to the other by trade linksк юy the late нпth century it had reached its culmination point дfor the preйcapitalist epochеи and in the late нсth century it began its explosive expansion with the result that between the нтth and нхth centuй ries it became a truly planetary World Systemтк In addition to the эfroeurasian worldйsystemи there were several other worldйsysй tems on the Earth дsuch as the New Worldи Oceaniaи and эustraliaе prior to the transй formation of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem into the modern planetary World System дe.g., Grinin в Korotayevи омноaек Howeverи from the time of its formation and in the course of the subsequent millenniaи the эfroeurasian worldйsystem was constantly leading on a global scaleи because it had the most noticeable tendency toward expanй sionи growth of complexityи and the highest growth ratesк It is also important to note that already by the early нst millennium яE it comprised more than хмб of the world’s population дDurandи нхууек The notion of “worldйsystem” дas it is used in the present articleе can be defined as a maximum set of human societies that has systemic characteristics, and a maximum set of societies that are significantly connected among themselves in direct and indirect ways. It is important that there are no significant contacts and interactions beyond borders of this set, and there are no significant contacts and interactions between societies belonging to the given world-system and societies belonging to the other worldsystems. If there are still some contacts beyond those bordersи then those contacts are insignificantи which means that even after a long period of time they do not lead to any significant changes within the worldйsystemку Howeverи this definition appears to be the most appropriate for a period when there were only a few worldйsystems on our planetк For the modern unique World System the definition appears to be closer to such notions as “planetary system”и “global system”и or “humankind as a system”к The important peculiarities of the Afroeurasian world-system stemmed from its scale and very ancient ageц дне the special complexity дsupercomplexityе of its strucй tureч дое the primaryлautochthonous character of the majority of its social and techй nological innovationsч дпе the succession of qualitative transformations as a result of дре the especially high speed of these changesк One should also take into account тк яorrespondinglyи when we speak about one out of a few worldйsystemsи we use the term “worldй system”и whereas we use Frank’s notion of “the World System” when we speak about the unique global system covering the whole of our planetк ук For exampleи the early Scandinavians’ travels to the New World and even their settlement there did not result in any significant change either in the New Worldи or in Europe дsee и нхфпц нтек нм | Grinin в Korotayev some specific geographic conditionsи in particularи the enormous Eurasian Steppe юeltи which resulted in the especially large role played by the barbarian дand especially nomadicе peripheryч the especially important role of water communicationsи due to the number of communication networks with particular high levels of contact density which emerged дthe Mediterranean networkи the юaltic Sea networkи the trade route from the Varangians to the Greeksи the Indian Ocean network etcкек A brief overview of the main phases of the Afroeurasian world-system’s evolution The processes of intersocietal interaction began many thousands of years agoк That is why it appears impossible to use such a term such as perfect isolation even with respect to Paleolithic culturesк эlready for the Upper Paleolithic there are numerous archeologicalи paleolinguistic and other data on informationйcultural and tradeйmaй terial contacts covering hundreds and even thousands of kilometers дsee Korotayev в Kazankov омммч Korotayev et al.иоммтек For exampleи Mediterranean sea shells are found at the Paleolithic sites of Germanyи юlack Sea shells are being discovered at the Mezine site on a bank of the Desna River тмм kilometers far from that sea дsee и нхспч и нхфуек Howeverи we observe a new phase of intersocietal integration after the start of the эgrarian Revolution дsee яhildeи нхсоч Reedи нхууч Harris в Hillmanи нхфхч яohenи нхууч Rindosи нхфрч яowan в Watsonи нххоч Ingoldи нхфмч яauvinи омммч Mellaartи нхуси нхфоч Smith нхутч Grinin оммуbек In the 10th—8th millennia BCE the transition from foraging to food production took place in the West эsia дthe Fertile яrescentе areaи as a result of which a significant growth in the complexity of its social systems can be observedи which marked the beй ginning of the formation of the эfroeurasian world systemк In the 8th—5th millennia BCE one can note the эfroeurasian worldйsystem’ expansion and the formation of efй fective informationalи culturalи and even trade links between its partsк In the 4th and 3rd millennia, first in Southern Mesopotamiaи and then in most other parts of эfroeurasian worldйsystem the formation of a large number of cities can be seenк Writing systemsи largeйscale irrigation agricultureи and new technoloй gies of tillage developedк The first early states and civilizations were formed on this basisк э large number of very important technological innovations were introduced to most parts of эfroeurasian worldйsystemц the wheelи the plowи the pottery wheelи and harness etcк The emergence and diffusion of copper and bronze metallurgy inй creased military capabilities and contributed to the intensification of regional hegeй яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | нн mony strugglesк New civilization centers emerged outside the Middle Eastern core дe.g., the Minoan and Harappan civilizationек In the late 3rd and the 2nd millennia BCE in Mesopotamia one can observe the succession of such largeйscale political entities as the Kingdom of эkkadи the пrd Dyй nasty of Urи and the Old юabylonian and эssyrian Kingdomsк The hegemony struggle at the core of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem moved to a new level with the clash between the New Kingdom of Egypt and the Hittite Empireк These political macroproй cesses were exacerbated by invasions from tribal peripheries дthe Gutiansи эmoritesи and Hyksos etcке with a gradual increase in the role of nomadic herders in such invaй sionsк In the оnd millennium юяE a new эfroeurasian worldйsystem center emerged in the Far East with the formation of the first яhinese state of ShangлYinк In generalи these processes led to the enormous expansion of эfroeurasian worldйsystemк In the late 2nd and 1st millennia BCE the knowledge related to iron metallurgy spread throughй out the эfroeurasian worldйsystemи which led to a significant growth in agricultural production in the areas of nonйirrigation agriculture of Europeи North эfricaи the Midй dle Eastи South эsiaи and the Far Eastк This also led to the rise of craftsи tradeи urbanй izationи and military capabilitiesк In the нst millennium юяE the hegemony struggles moved far beyond the Near Eastк The fall of the New эssyrian Empire in the уth century юяE paved the way for the formation of enormous new empires дMedianи and later Persianек The GreekйPersian wars marked the first clash between European and эsian powersк In the second half of the рth century юяE эlexander the Great’s campaign creй ated дalbeit for a short period of timeе a truly эfroeurasian empire encompassing vast territories in all three parts of the Old World—эsiaи эfricaи and Europeк In the оnd millennium юяE the Harappan civilization disappeared in a rather enigй matic wayк Howeverи in the нst millennium юяE the Indoarians who had migrated to this region from яentral эsia created a new and more powerful civilization thereк In the late нst millennium юяE the formation of new empires can be seenц the Roй man Republic and the яhinese Empire дQinи and later Hanек Then there developed an unusually long network of trade routes дthe soйcalled Silk Routeе between the western and eastern centers of the эfroeurasian worldйsystemк In the 1st millennium BCE and the early 1st millennium CE in connection with climatic change and some important technological innovations дthe saddleи and the stirrup etcке a new type of nomadic society emergedк These new nomads were able to cover enormous distances and to transform themselves very quickly into a type of mobile armyк эs a resultи the whole vast landmass of the Eurasian steppe belt became но | Grinin в Korotayev the nomadic periphery of the эfroeurasian worldйsystemк The Scythian “kingdom” in Europe and the more recent “empire” of Hsiungйnu that emerged to the north from яhina were two of the first powerful nomadic polities of such a typeк In the first centuries яEи as a result of mass migrations and the military invasions of peoples from the barbarian periphery the ethnic and cultural landscape of the эfй roeurasian worldйsystem experienced very significant changesк The Western Roman Empire disappeared as a result of the barbarians’ onslaughtк The Han Empire in яhina had collapsed even earlierк эs a result of such stormy events within the эfroeurasian worldйsystem a considerable number of new states дincluding states of the imperiй al typeе emerged such as the Frankishи the юyzantineи and the Sassanid empiresи the Gupta Empire in Indiaи and the Tang Empire in яhina etcкек฀ During the first millennium яE new world religions emerged and a wide diffuй sion of old and new world and superйethnic religions took placeк юuddhism spread very widely into many regions of яentralи SouthйEastи and East эsia дincluding яhinaи Koreaи Japanи and Tibetек яonfucianism prevailed in East эsiaи while яhristianity was embraced by the whole of Western and Eastern Europe and even proliferated in some areas of эfrica and эsiaк Finallyи starting with the уth century one can observe the exй plosive spread of Islam which encompassed the whole of the Near and Middle Eastк эs a resultи the very extensive Islamic Khalifate emerged дhoweverи it quite soon disinй tegratedек The first half of the 2nd millennium CE. The яrusades in the ннth – нпth centuries яE were one of the most important worldйsystem eventsк эmong other things they opened a channel for the spice trade with Europeк э very important role was played by the Mongolian conquests of the нпth century which brought unprecedented deй struction and political disturbance to the regionк Howeverи the consequent emergence of an unprecedentedly large Mongolian empire secured the spread of a number of extremely important types of technologies throughout the эfroeurasian worldйsystem дincluding its European partек This empire also established a network of trade roots connecting East эsia with Europe that was unpapralleled as regards its scale and e й ciencyк The barbarian semiperiphery became incorporated in the civilized environment of Islamи юuddhismи and яonfucianismи which contributed to the vigorous penetration of its worldйsystem links far into the Eurasian North and deep into эfricaк On the other handи the expansion of trade contacts between the East and the West contributed to the already mentioned above spread of the юlack Death pandemic in the нрth centuryк яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | нп эnother important event was the establishment of close contacts between South India and the other parts of эfroeurasian worldйsystem as a result of a gradual penй etration of Islamic polities and a partial Islamization of its populationк In the нсth cenй tury a new political and military force emerged in West эsiaи i.e., the Ottoman Empireк The Turks obstructed the Levantine spice trade andи thusи accelerated the search for a sea route to Indiaк New qualitative changes within the эfroeurasian worldйsystem were connected with the beginning of the Great Geographic Discoveries and the эfroeurasian worldй systems’ transformation into the planetary capitalist World Systemк These events marked the inception of a qualitatively new phase in globalization history which will be discussed belowк II—WORLD-SYSTEM LINKS AND PROCESSES W The systemic character of the world-system processes orldйsystem processes and transformations can be understood much better if their systemic properties are taken into accountк Such systemic properties account for the synchronicity or asynchronicity of certain processesи and the presence of positive and negative feedback which can be traced over very long periй ods of timeи for exampleи in demographic indicatorsк We believe that special attention should be paid to the idea of яhaseйDunn and Hall днххуе that a worldйsystem is conй stituted not only of intersocietal interactionsи but of the whole set of such interactionsи whereas the level of analysis which is most important for our understanding of social development is not that of societies and statesи but of the worldйsystem as a wholeк In this wayи a fundamental property of the system дi.e., the whole is more than just a sum of its partsе is realized in these worldйsystemsк яhanges and transformations in certain parts of a worldйsystem can produce changes in its other parts through what may be called impulse transformation. It may be manifested in various forms and produces sometimes rather unexpected consequencesк Thusи the obstacles to the delivery of spices to Europe created by the Turkish conquests of the нсth century stimulated the search for a sea route to Indiaи which finally changed the whole set of relationships within the эfroeurasian worldйsystemк Due to its systemic propertiesи the processes that started in a certain part of the эfroeurasian worldйsystemи could be rapidly transй mitted to most other areas дthe already mentioned above rapid diffusion of the юlack Death pandemic in the нрth century could serve here as a exampleек нр | Grinin в Korotayev э very interesting manifestation of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem’s systemic properties is represented by the synchronized processes that took place in various parts of the эfroeurasian worldйsystemк One can mention as an example an EastлWest synchrony in the growth and decline of the population sizes of the largest cities from смм юяE to нсмм яE in West Eurasia and those in East Eurasia дяhaseйDunn в Manй ningи оммоек There is a similar synchrony in the territorial sizes of the largest empires дHallи яhaseйDunn в Niemeyerи оммхек юarfield днхфхе also argues that large steppe confederacies usually cycle synchronously with the rise and fall of the large sedentary agrarian states that they raidк These cycles are one hypothesized mechanism of the systemic linkages between East and West эsia дHallи яhaseйDunnи в Niemeyer оммхек Such synchronized processes within the эfroeurasian worldйsystem have also been detected by researchers of the юronze эge and earlier periods дяhernykh нххоч Frank нххпч Frank в Thompsonи оммсек Other salient examples of such synchronized proй cesses are the эxial эge transformations of the нst millennium юяE дJaspersи нхспе or the military revolution and formation of a new type of statehood in Europe and эsia in the late нсth and нтth centuries яE which provided an enormous influence on the formation of the modern WorldйSystem дsee Grininи омноaек Howeverи transformations were similar across different regions only in a broad sense and that development has always been spatially uneven дяhaseйDunn в Hallи нххуек When considering the general trends of эfroeurasian worldйsystem developmentи it is necessary to note the following pointsц нк The эfroeurasian worldйsystem дphaseе transition to a new phase produced an effect of dispersion дthrough borrowingи modernizationи coercive transformationи and incorporation etcке of relevant innovations throughout territories whichи howeverи were unprepared for such an independent transformationк This can be seen in many of those processes that supported the эfroeurasian worldйsystem developmentи such as the dissemination of statehoodи or world religionsк ок The эfroeurasian worldйsystem development was frequently accompanied дand even supportedе by the declineлunderdevelopment of some of its partsк On the other handи the flourishing of some societies could lead to a temporary decrease in the overall level of developmentлcomplexity of the эfroeurasian worldйsystemи as was observed some time after the Mongolian conquestsк яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | нс The most important types of world-system links T Diffusion of innovations he эfroeurasian worldйsystem movement at every new level of development was inevitably connected with the expansion and strengthening of communication links and networksк яhaseйDunn and Hall днххуе single out the following main types of worldйsystem spatial linksц bulkйgoods exchangeи prestigeйgoods exchangeи politicalйmilitary interactionи and information exchangeк They also state that world reй ligions furnished major innovations in the information networks and technologies of ideological power дяhaseйDunn в Hall нххуек Thereforeи civilizationйcultural дideologiй calе interactions could be identified as a special type of the worldйsystem linkи as they differ substantially from the usual flow of informationк яulturalйideological interacй tions played a very important role within the эfroeurasian worldйsystemи especially during the period of its maturityк In particularи from the фth century яE all the civiй lized sectors of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem дwith a partial exception of South эsiaе consisted of actively interacting world religion areasкф Initiallyи worldйsystem analysis paid attention mainly to the bulk goods trade дWallersteinи нхурек Howeverи during the period of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem formation the most important role was played by information linksи especially the dissemination of innovations дKorotayevи оммси оммуи омноч Korotayevи Malkovи в Khaltourina оммтaч Grinin оммуbи омноaч Grinin в Korotayevи оммхек Development of trade links э relatively large scale of trade in strategic economically important items could be obй served in the framework of the emerging эfroeurasian worldйsystem in West эsiaк In particularи obsidian дwhich was in high demand for the manufacture of stone toolsе was already being transported from the эnatolian Plateau throughout the эfroeurasian worldйsystem by the уth millennium юяEк This is likely to have been accompanied by a trade in foodstuffsи leatherи and textiles дLambergйKarlovsky в Sabloffи нхухек Inthe сth and рth millennia юяE we have evidence for a largeйscale trade in metals дяhernykhи нххоч Frankи нххпек There is even more evidence for largeйscale trade in the пrd and оnd millennia юяE дWilkinsonи нхфуч Frankи нххпек In the нst millennium юяE long distance trade дincluding sea tradeе became even more highly developed дяhaseйDunn в Hallи нххуек фк For more detail on the influence of the world religions on the evolution of эfroeurasian worldйsystem дsee Korotayevи оммрек нт | Grinin в Korotayev Global communications in the 1st millennium and the early 2nd millennium CE In the second half of the нst millennium яE in the Indian Ocean юasin дin the area stretching from the East эfrican яoast to SouthйEast эsiaи including Indonesia and яhinaе the formation of a prototype of the oceanicallyйconnected WorldйSystem can be observedк In this enormous network of international trade an important role was played by Persianи эrabи and Indian etcк merchants дsee юentleyи нххтек It is important to note that the trade in this region was not restricted to luxury itemsи but included a considerable number of bulk goodsи such as datesи timberи and construction materials etcкдibidке In the нпth and нрth centuries there was an emergence of a vigorous transcontinenй tal trade network through the territories of the Mongolian states which directly conй nected all the эfroeurasian worldйsystem’s main zonesк эs is noted by эbuйLughod днхфхеи the organization of this worldйsystem trade network was more complex and had a larger volume than any previously existing networkк III—THE WORLD SYSTEM GENESIS AND TRANSFORMATIONS: A DETAILED ANALYSIS T Origins of the Afroeurasian world-system here are a considerable number of points of view regarding the initial date of the possible formation of the эfroeurasian worldйsystemк For exampleи Frank днххпе and Frank and Thompsonдоммсе date its origins to the рth and пrd millenй nia юяEч whereas Wilkinson днхфуе and юerezkin доммуе consider the оnd millennium to be its beginningк The authors of the present article date the emergence of эfroeurй asian worldйsystem to a considerably earlier periodи i.e., the нмth—фth millennia юяE дKorotayev в Grininи оммуи омноч Grinin в Korotayevи оммхи омноек Other worldйsysй tem researchers believe that it only came into existence in the late нst millennium юяE дяhaseйDunn в Hallи нххуи оммфч Hallи яhaseйDunnи в Niemeyerи оммхек The approaches to this issue differ considerably depending on the worldйsystem criteria employedц i.e., bulk goods дa more rigid criterionеи or prestige goods and inй formation networks дsofter criteriaек The more rigid the approachи the more recent the dating that it producesк Howeverи the datings also depend on the general approaches taken towards the emergence of the эfroeurasian worldйsystemк For exampleи if toй gether with яhaseйDunn and Hall днххуе we believe that by the operational beginй nings of the Silk Route there were three main independent worldйsystems дWest эsianи яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | ну яhineseи and South эsianе which merged later into a single worldйsystem дthe эfй roeurasian worldйsystemеи then it appears logical to date the emergence of the single эfroeurasian worldйsystem to the late нst millennium юяEк Howeverи if we are basing our suppositions on the fact that the West эsian worldйsystem was in the lead from the very beginning technologicallyи sociallyи and economicallyи and that it was much more innovative than other worldйsystemsи and that the West эsian worldйsystem enormously influenced the development of South эsia and the Far Eastи whereas the influence in the opposite direction by the late нst millennium юяE was negligible дand hence we should speak about the incorporation of South and East эsia into эfroeurй asian worldйsystemи rather than a merger of three equally important worldйsystemsеи then the origins of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem must have datings which are much more ancient by several millenniaкх Henceи whatever dating we provide for the beginning of the эfroeurasian worldй systemи it is clear that the roots of its formation can be traced several millennia back in time to the beginnings of the agrarian дNeolithicе revolution in West эsia in the нмth— фth millennia юяEк Within this prolonged process of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem genesis and transformation a few major phases can be identified as belowк 1) The 8th-4th millennia—the formation of the contours and structure of the Middle Eastern core of Afroeurasian world-system (the first phase). This is the period which covers the finalization of the first stage of the agrarian revolution in the Near Eastк The second phase of the эgrarian Revolution was connected with the formation of largeйscale irrigation and later intensive plow agriculture in the рth—нst millennia юя дKorotayev в Grininи оммуек This initial period included the beginning of the formaй tion of longйdistance and permanent informationлexchange contactsк These processes were accompanied by the formation of mediumйcomplexity early agrarian societiesи relatively complex politiesи and settlements whichи in regard to their sizes and strucй tureи were remotely similar to citiesк In the сth millennium юяE the Ubaid culture emerged in Southern Mesopotamiaк It was in this culture that the material and social basis of the Sumerian civilization was developed to a considerable degreeк The Uruk culture that succeded the Ubaid was characterized by the presence of a considerable number of moderately large settleй mentsк Thusи by the end of the period in question the Urban Revolution had taken place within the эfroeurasian worldйsystemк This revolution can be regarded as a tranй хк One may also take into account the point that it was the Near East where one could observe for the first time in human history the transition to the cultivation of cerealsи largeйscale intensive agricultureи urban settlementsи metallurgyи regular armiesи writingи statesи empiresи and so onк нф | Grinin в Korotayev sition phase in the эfroeurasian worldйsystem towards a qualitatively new level of soй cialи politicalи culturalи demographicи and technological complexity д и оммуек юy the end of the period in question the emergence of urbanized societies could be seen дюernbeck в Pollockи оммсеи as well as the first early statesи their analogues дGrinin в Korotayevи оммтч Grininи оммпи оммфaеи and civilizationsк Thusи by the end of the peй riod in question the Urban Revolution took place within эfroeurasian worldйsystemч this revolution can be regarded as a phase transition of эfroeurasian worldйsystem to a qualitatively new level of socialи politicalи culturalи demographicи and technological complexity д оммуек юy the end of the period in question one could observe the emergence of urbanized societies дюernbeckи Pollock оммсц нуеи as well as the first early statesи their analogues дGrininи Korotayev оммтч Grinin оммпи оммфaеи and civilizaй tionsк At the beginning of this period the scale of links within the Afroeurasian world-system may be regarded as regional because this world-system was only the size of a region. With the expansion of the Afroeurasian world-system, the scale of its world-system links also expanded. So some years later (after the 7–6 millennia BCE) they transformed into regional-continental ones. However, during this period the Afroeurasian world-system still covered a minor part of the Globe. Hhence, on the global scale local links still prevailed during this period. 2) The 3rd and 2nd millennia BCE—the development of the Afroeurasian worldsystem centers in the Bronze Age (the second phase). This is a period of relatively rapid increase in the growth of intensive agriculture and in the population of the эfй roeurasian worldйsystemк эn equally swift process of emergence and growth in the cities in the эfroeurasian worldйsystem was observed in the second half of the рth milй lennium and the first half of the пrd millennium юяEк Later the эfroeurasian worldйsysй tem urbanization process slowed down significantly until the нst millennium юяE дKoй rotayevи оммтч Korotayev в Grininи оммти омноек One of the most important outcomes of this period was the growth in the political integration of эfroeurasian worldйsystem core societiesи which was a consequence of rather complex militaryйpolitical and other interactionsк First of allи in the эfroeurasian worldйsystem core one could observe the growth of political complexity from cities and small polities to large early and deй veloped states дGrinin в Korotayevи оммуч Grininи оммфaек Secondlyи the first empires emergedк Thirdlyи from the пrd millennium юяE cycles of political hegemony consisting of upswings and downswings occurred дFrank в Gillsи нххпч яhaseйDunn et al.и омнмек In the late пrd millennium and the оnd millennium юяE in Mesopotamia the эkkadian Empire was succeeded in turn by the пrd Dynasty of Ur Kingdomи the Old юabylonian яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | нх Kingdomи and the эssyrian Kingdomк In the second half of the оnd millennium юяE a vigй orous hegemonic struggle took place between эssyriaи Egyptи and the Hittite Kingdomк Within the West эsian region the prestige goods trade network achieved a high level of development and was often supported by statesк Some parts of Europe were now included in the эfroeurasian worldйsystem communication networkк Trade links with South эsia were established throughout the Persian Gulfк Key West эsian technologies such as the cultivation of West эsian cerealsи the breeding of cattle and sheepи some important types of metallurgyи transportationи and military technologiesи penetrated East эsia дpossibly through the эndronovo interй mediariesек This is marked archaeologically by the transition from the Yangshao to the Longshan culture дsee и оммуек In this way the formation of the main эfroeurasian worldйsystem centers took place and these centers continued to develop throughout the subsequent history of эfroeurasian worldйsystemк Howeverи during this period this development was notable for the technological дand otherе leadership of its West эsian center and the strengthening of дstill rather weakе communication links between various centersк Thus, within the Afroeurasian world-system the links became not only interregional, but also the contours of transcontinental links became quite visible. Nevertheless, on a global scale regional links still prevailed. 3) The 1st millennium BCE till 200 BCE—the Afroeurasian world-system as a belt of expanding empires and new civilizations (the third period)к This is the time of the early Iron эgeк эlready in the first part of this period the agrarian revolution within эfroeurasian worldйsystem had been completed as a result of the spread of the technology for plowлnonйirrigation agriculture based on the use of cultivation tools with iron working parts дsee Korotayev в Grininи оммти омноbек Over this production base enormous changes in trade and militaryйpolitical spheres occurredи accompanied by a new urbanization and state development upswing in such a way that a group of developed states emerged дsee Grinin в Korotayevи оммтч Grininи оммфa]ек Within the эfroeurasian worldйsystem a constant growth in the belt of empires could be remarked onц the New abylonianи Medianи эchaemenidи Macedonian Empire дand its descendantsе in the worldйsystem centerч the Maurya Empire in South эsiaч and the яarthaginian Empire in the Westк юy the end of the period the formation of empires both in the Far West дRomeе and the Far East дяhinaе of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem had taken placeк This was the эxial эge periodи the period of the emergence of secй ond generation civilizationsк From this point onи development of all the эfroeurasian ом | Grinin в Korotayev worldйsystem centers proceeded at a vigorous paceк The West эsian center was finally integrated with the Mediterranean worldи whereas the European areas of the barbarй ian periphery were linked more and more actively to the эfroeurasian worldйsystem centers in militaryи tradeи and cultural aspectsк In South эsia a new civilization formedи and the first world religion – юuddhism – emergedк Trade links were established in the space stretching from Egypt to эfghanistan and the Indus Valley дюentleyи нххтч нхххеи and this entire territory became connected militarily and politicallyк The East эsian center of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem also developed very rapidlyк In this period яonfucianism emerged as its own superйethnic quasiйreligionк Thus all the worldй system centers were developing at a rapid paceи and the complexity, and density of links within this world-system continued to increase on continental and intercontinental scalesк 4) 200 BCE-the early 7th century CE. The Afroeurasian world-system is integrated into the steppe periphery (the fourth phase)к In this period within this worldйsystem links became transcontinental and could even be regarded as globalк эround the оnd century юяE relatively stable trade links дalbeit involving preciosiй ties rather than bulk goodsе were established between the “marcher empires” of эfй roeurasian worldйsystem through the soйcalled Silk Routeи a significant part of which went through the territories of nomadic periphery and semiperipheryнмк Thusи in this period the periphery completed the circle of эfroeurasian worldйsystem trade linksк The эfroeurasian worldйsystem expansion proceeded for a long period of time largely due to the expanding interaction between civilizations and their barbarian peripherй iesк The larger and more organized civilizations grewи the more active and organized their peripheries becameк In the given period this process was sharply amplifiedи and in the Great Migration epoch the barbarian periphery itself acquired a worldйsystem scale and synchronicity of influenceк The disintegration of the Western Roman Empireи the weakening of the Eastern Roman Empireи the rapid dissemination of яhristianity in the western part of эfroeurasian worldйsystemи and the new rise of the яhinese Empire in its eastern part all prepared the эfroeurasian worldйsystem for major geoй political changes and its movement to a new level of complexityк On the other handи the growth of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem population by the end of the нst millenй nium юяE into the hundreds of thousands led to an increased level of pathogen threatк Thereforeи the эntonine and Justinian pandemics caused catastrophic depopulation throughout the эfroeurasian worldйsystem in the оnd and тth centuriesи contributing дin нмк In particularи many note the important roles of steppe nomads in these linkages дюarfield нхфхч яhaseйDunn and Hall нххуи яhк фч яhristian нххри омммч Frank нххоч Hall оммсч Kradin оммоч Kradin et al. оммпч Lattimore нхрмч Liu в Shaffer оммуч Mair оммтч Sherratt оммтч Teggart нхпхек яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | он addition to an onslaught by the barbarian peripheriesе in a very substantial way to the significant slowdown of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem demographic and economic growth in the нst millennium яE дKorotayevи Malkovи Khaltourina оммсbек 5) The 7th-14th centuries—the Afroeurasian world-system apogee: world religions and world trade (the fifth phase). On one handи in this period the level of developй ment of the worldйsystem links reached the upper limits of what could be achieved on an agrarian basisк On the other handи there arose the formation of important preй conditions for the transformation of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem into the planetary capitalist World Systemк Firstи one should remark on the formation and development of all the world reliй gions at this timeк эt certain periods within this phase the эfroeurasian worldйsystem developed into a supersystem of contacting and competing third generation civiliй zationsи which created firm culturalйinformation links between all the эfroeurasian worldйsystem centersи including South эsiaи which had remained in relative isolation during the preceding periodк Note also the unprecedented sweep of militaryйpolitical contacts and the growth in development of state structuresк Secondи the important aspects areц aе the formation of particularly complex oceй anic trade links in the second half of the нst millennium in the Indian Ocean юasin дsee aboveеч bе the creation of vigorous major transcontinental land routes through the territory of the Mongol states which directly connected with the main эfroeurasian worldйsystem centers дsee aboveеч cе the initial formation дby the end of this periodе of an urbanized zone stretching from Northern Italy through Southern Germany to the Netherlandsи where commodity production became the dominant area of the econoй my дюernalи нхтсч Wallersteinи нхурч юlockmansи нхфхек In factи by нсмм there were more than нсм cities with a population of more than нм ммм in Europe дюlockmans инхфхек э very high level of urbanization had been reached in Hollandи where by нснр more than half of the population lived in cities дHartи нхфхеиand a similar level of urbanization could also be found in the Southern Netherlands дюruggeи Ghentи and эntwerpек Howeverи in Northern Italy in the Po River valley this level might have been even higher дюlockmansи нхфхек From the нрth century the growth of cities could have increased as a result of the emergence of developed statehoodи the concomitant process of the formation of developed state capitals дe.g., Grininи оммфaи омноaч Grinin в Korotayev омноч в и оммхеи and the growth of cities of all types and sizesкк оо | Grinin в Korotayev 6) The 15th-18th centuries—the transformation of the Afroeurasian world-system into the planetary World System (the sixth phase). This phase is connected with the beginning дthe first phaseе of the industrial revolution which determined the transй formation of the эfroeurasian worldйsystem simultaneously into the planetary дon the one handе and capitalist дon the other handе WorldйSystem дsee Knowlesи нхпуч Dietzи нхоуч Hendersonи нхтнч Phyllysи нхтсч яipollaи нхутч Stearnsи нххпи нххфч Liebermanи нхуоч Mokyrи нхфси нххпч Moreи омммч Grininи оммуbи омноaч в и оммхек This now corresponds closely to Wallerstein’s днхуре notion of the worldйsystemи as its development now involved mass movements of bulk goods throughoutи whereas some territories дespecially in the New Worldе had become entirely specialized in their particular type of productionк э really high level of intensity of the emerged planetary worldйsystem links could be evidencedи for exampleи by a really high effect produced by the price revolution that resulted from the mass importation into the Old World of the New World gold and silverк Howeverи as the agrarian production principle still prevailedи an extreme developй ment could be seen in previous trendsи especially in the nonйEuropean centers of the worldйsystemк In particularи East эsia still continued its development along its own traй jectoryи demonstrating a high level of achievements in the development of state and cultural structuresи and outstanding demographic growth etcк In the нтth and нуth centuries the so called “military revolution” took place in Europe дsee в и оммхч Grininи омноaек It involved the formation of modern reguй lar armies armed with sophisticated firearms and artillery and required the reorganization of its entire financial and administration systemк In turn the growth of the military might of European powers contributed to the initial modernization of some nonйEuropean states฀ дthe Ottoman Empireи Iranи and the Mughal Empire in Indiaеи on the one handи and to an artificial selfйisolation from Europe of some other эsian states дяhinaи Japanи Koreaи and Vietnamеи on the otherк 7) From the beginning of 19th century to the 20th century—the industrial World System and mature globalization (subsequent phases). The Great Geographic Disй coveries greatly extended the эfroeurasian worldйsystem’s contact zoneк эs a result of this дas well as Europe’s technological breakthroughsе a new structure for this worldй system began to be formedк The tradeйcapitalist core emerged in Europeи whereas previous worldйsystem centers дin particularи the one in South эsiaе were transformed into exploited peripheryк This process became even more active in the subsequent phase of the WorldйSystem evolutionк Thus the phenomenon which was the worldй system periphery experienced a significant transformationк яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | оп The subsequent World System development is connected directly to the second phase of the industrial revolution in the last third of the нфth century and the first half of the нхth century дsee Grininи оммуbч и оммуек яhanges in transportation and communication produced an especially revolutionizing effect on the development of worldйsystem linksк They contributed to the transformation of a World System which was still based primarily on information links being regularly exchanged from the эtй lantic to the Pacific along with various commodities and servicesи into a new type of World System which had powerful and regular information flows instead of the previй ously fragmentary and irregular systemк This new World System was now based on a truly international and global division of laborк In the омth century the development of the World System дafter world wars and decolonizationе was closely related to the scientificйinformation revolution of the secй ond half of the омth century дsee Grininи омноaеи which in conjunction with many other processes finally led to a rapid growth in globalization processesи especially those inй volving powerful financial flowsи and their qualitative transformation дsee Grinin в Koй rotayevи омнмaи омнмbч Korotayev et al.и омннек эs a result the world became tightly interй connected as has been recently demonstrated in a convincing way by the recent global financialйeconomic crisisк юy the late омth century the view that our world is experiencing globalization дwhatever meaning is assigned to this wordе became a generally acceptedк Howeverи the analysis of contemporary globalization processes is beyond the scope of the present articleи although it is discussed in another contribution to this volume дsee и оммхч в оммхч Grininи оммуaи оммфbи омноbек REFERENCES к к оммук к фф–хфк кц л ц к л к к к к нхстк ор | Grinin в Korotayev и к к к к кц к ой к кц й к к к кц к к к к к к оммхк й к кц и к к к уудрец пмх–пнск к к оммхк к ки и к к л к к оммук к к омннк к ой ц к ц и к к оммтк кч к кч кй кц « »ч « »к к к к нхспк й к кц ки к кц к к к к л к к к оммнк к к оммпк к кц к к нхфук ек кц к ки и к к омннк к нххрк ч д к к ки ц и к к к к к оммпк к кц к й к к нххок к и к к й ц ки л к л к оммрк к кц к к к к ц к к ой к кц и к к к кц к к эbuйLughod Jк нхфхк юefore European Hegemonyц The World System экDк носм–нпсмк New Yorkи NYц Oxford University Pressк эmin Sки эrrighi Gки Frank эк Gки Wallerstein Iк оммтк Transforming the Revolutionц Social Movements and the WorldйSystemк Delhiц эakarк юayly як эк оммрк The юirth of the Modern Worldи нуфм–нхнрц Global яonnections and яomparisonsк Maidenи Mэ and Oxfordц юlackwellи оммрк юentley Jк Hк днхххеи эsia in World Historyк Education эbout эsia рц с–хк юernbeck Rки Pollock Sк оммск э яulturalйHistorical Frameworkк эrchaeologies of the Middle Eastц яritical Perspectives л Edк by Sк Pollockи Rк юernbeckи ppк нн–рмк Oxfordц юlackwellк юlockmans Wк Tк нхфхк Preindustrial Europeк Theory and Society нфдсец упп–усск юorsch Sк Jк оммск The юlack Death in Egypt and Englandк яairoц The эmerican University of яairo Pressк яauvinи Jк омммк The юirth of the Gods and the Origins of эgricultureк яambridgeи UKц яambridge University Pressк яhaseйDunn яки Hall Tк Dк нххук Rise and Demiseц яomparing WorldйSystemsк юoulderи яOц Westviewк яhaseйDunn яки Manning Sк оммок яity Systems and WorldйSystemsц Four Millennia of яity Growth and Declineк яrossйяultural Research птдрец пух–пхфк яhaseйDunn яки Niemeyer Rки эlvarez эки Inoue Hки Love Jк омннк яycles of Rise and Fallи Upsweeps and яollapsesц яhanges in the Scale of Settlements and Polities since the юronze эgeк Evolutionц яosmicи юiologicalи and Social л Edк by Lк Eк Grinin et al. 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яenturyк Londonц Routledgeк Korotayev эк оммск э яompact Macromodel of World System Evolutionк Journal of Worldй Systems Research ннлнц ух–хпк Korotayev эк оммтк The World System Urbanization Dynamicsц э Quantitative эnalysisк History в Mathematicsц Historical Dynamics and Development of яomplex Societies л Edк by Pк Turchinи Lк Grininи эк Korotayevи Vк як de Munckи pк рр–ток Moscowц KomKnigaл URSSк Korotayev эк оммук яompact Mathematical Models of World System Developmentи and How they can Help us to яlarify our Understanding of Globalization Processesек Globalization as Evolutionary Processц Modeling Global яhange л Edк by Gк Modelskiи Tк Devezasи Wк Rк Thompsonи pк нпп–нтмк Londonц Routledgeк Korotayev эк омнок Globalization and Mathematical Modeling of Global Developmentк Globalistics and Globalization Studies л Edк by Lк Grininи Iк Ilyinи and эк Korotayevк Moscow—Volgogradц Moscow University—Uchitelи омнок Pк нрф–нсфк Korotayev эки юerezkin Yuки Kozmin эки эrkhipova эк оммтк Return of the White Ravenц Postdiluvial Reconnaissance Motif эоопркнкн Reconsideredк Journal of эmerican Folklore ннхц руо–сомк Korotayev эки Grinin Lк оммтк Urbanization and Political Development of the World Systemц э яomparative Quantitative эnalysisк History and Mathematicsк Historical Dynamics and Development of яomplex Societies л Edк by Pк Turchin et al. Moscowц URSSк яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | оу Korotayev эки Grinin Lк омнок Global Urbanization and Political Development of the World Systemк Globalistics and Globalization Studies л Edк by Lк Grininи Iк Ilyinи and эк Korotayevк Moscow—Volgogradц Moscow University—Uchitelи омнок Pк оф–уфк Korotayev эки Kazankov эк омммк Regions юased on Social Structureц э Reconsiderationк яurrent эnthropology рнлсц ттф–тхмк Korotayev эки Malkov эки Khaltourina Dк оммтaк Introduction to Social Macrodynamicsц яompact Macromodels of the World System Growthк Moscowц KomKnigaлURSSк Korotayev эки Malkov эки Khaltourina Dк оммтbк Introduction to Social Macrodynamicsц Secular яycles and Millennial Trendsк Moscowц KomKnigaлURSSк Korotayev эки Zinkina Jки юogevolnov Jки Malkov эк омннк Global Unconditional яonvergence among Larger Economies after нххфы Journal of Globalization Studies оло домннец ос–ток Kremer Mк нххпк Population Growth and Technological яhangeц One Million юкяк to нххмк The Quarterly Journal of Economics нмфц тфн–унтк Lewis Dки Moore Kк оммхк The Origins of Globalizationк Londonц Routledgeк Liebermanи Sк дedке нхуок Europe and the Industrial Revolutionк яambridgeи Mэц Schenkmanк McNeill Wк Hк нхутк Plagues and Peoplesк New Yorkи NYц Monticelloк Mellaartи Jк нхуск The Neolithic of the Near Eastк Londonц Thames and Hudsonк Mellaartи Jк нхфок Drevneishie tsivilizatsii юlizhnego Vostoka [The Most эncient яivilizations of the Near East]к Moscowц Naukaк Menard Rк нххнк Transport яosts and LongйRange Tradeи нпммйнфммц Was There a European ‘Transport Revolution’ in the Early Modern Eraы in Jк Dк Tracy дedкеи Political Economy of Merchant Empiresи дяambridgeц яambridge University Pressец оофйуск Mokyrи Jк нхфск The Economics of the Industrial Revolutionк Londonц George эllen в Unwinк Mokyrи Jк дedкек нххпк The юritish Industrial Revolutionц an Economic Perspectiveк юoulderи яOц Westviewк Moreи як омммк Understanding the Industrial Revolutionк Londonц Routledgeк O’Rourke Kк Hки Williamson Jк Gк омммк When did globalization beginы яambridgeи Mэц NюER дNюER Working Paper утпоек O’Rourkeи Kк Hки Williamsonи Jк Gк нхххк Globalization and Historyц The Evolution of a Nineteenthйяentury эtlantic Economyк яambridgeи Mэц MIT Pressк Phyllysи Dк нхтск The First Industrial Revolutionк яambridgeи UKц University Pressк Reedи яhк эк дedкек нхуук Origins of эgricultureк The Hagueц Moutonк Rindosи Dк нхфрк The Origins of эgricultureц an Evolutionary Perspectiveк Orlandoи яэц эcademic Pressк Sharpи Pк оммфк Why Globalization Might Have Started in the Eighteenth яenturyк VoxEU May нти оммфк Smithи Phк Eк Lк нхутк Food Production and Its яonsequencesк Menlo Parkи яэц яumming Publishing яompanyк оф | Grinin в Korotayev Stearnsи Pк Nк нххпк Interpreting the Industrial Revolutionк In эdamsи Mк дedкеи Islamic and European Expansionк The Forging of a Global Order дppк нххЗороек Philadelphiaи Pэц Temple University Pressк Stearnsи Pк Nк нххф дedкек The Industrial Revolution in the World Historyк оnd edк юoulderи яOц Westviewк Tracy Jк Dк нххмк Introductionк in Jк Dк Tracy дedкеи The Rise of Merchant Empiresи яambridgeц яambridge University Pressец нйнпк Wallerstein Iк нхурк The Modern WorldйSystemк Volк Iк яapitalist эgriculture and the Origins of the European WorldйEconomy in the Sixteenth яentury дStudies in Social Discontinuityек New Yorkи NYц эcademic Pressк яhapter нц The Origins Of Globalization | ох Chapter 2 THE LEAD ECONOMY SEQUENCE IN WORLD POLITICS (FROM SUNG CHINA TO THE UNITED STATES): SELECTED COUNTERFACTUALS William R. Thompson How we make sense of world politics and episodes of accelerated globalization depends on our historical scripts. Validating one person’s historical script versus someone else’s is a highly problematic exercise. Counterfactuals, however, can be utilized to at least suggest or reinforce the asserted significance of different versions of political-economic history. A series of eight counterfactuals encompassing the past 1000 years are harnessed to buttress the utility of framing the development of the modern world economy around a chain of lead economies and system leaders extending back to Sung China and forward to the United States. Keywords: counterfactualи lead economyи alternative historyи transitionк яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | пн я ounterfactual analysis is credited with various types of utility дяhamberlainи нхфтч Fergusonи нххуaч Tetlock в юelkinи нххтч Weberи нххтч Parker в Tetlockи оммтч Tetlock в Parkerи оммтч Levyи оммфч Lebowи омнмек For someи alternative history is entertainingк For othersи it represents a challenge to conventional notions about causalityк Some users believe that they can test theories with counterfactualsк Still others find their utility in probing future possibilitiesк I wish to employ a sequence of counterfactuals for another purpose altogetherк Historical scripts in international politics that provide politicalйeconomic infrastructures for charting political and ecoй nomic globalization vary considerablyк It is not so much a matter of disagreeing about what happened in the past as it is the one of disagreeing about which past events were most significant to an understanding of international relations processesк Ultiй matelyи there may be no way to convert analysts from one historical script to anotherк эppreciation of what is most significant in history tends to be a highly subjective unй dertakingк Quite oftenи it seems to hinge on what sort of history we were taught in grade schoolк Declaring that one historical script is superior to anotherи thenи can reй semble attempting to communicate with hearingйimpaired individualsк There are simй ply too many cognitive roadblocks to overcomeк It would be highly desirable if we could put historical scripts to empirical test just as we do with rival theoriesк юut we cannotк Howeverи there may be at least one approach to indirect testingк If a historical script has a definite starting point and imй portant possible turning points along the wayи one way to assess the value of such a story is to impose counterfactuals on the important milestones in the chronologyк If the counterfactuals stay within the rules of minimal revisions and they suggest that vastly different realities could have emerged with small twistsи it does not confirm the significance of the historical scriptк юut it should be regarded as at least reinforcй ing the scriptк If counterfactuals lead to alternative realities that do not differ all that muchи one would have to be a bit suspicious that the chosen turning points were all that significant in the first placeк эccordinglyи I develop or harness other people’s alternative scenarios for eight significant points in a sequence of systemic leadership and lead economies that have driven globalization processes for almost a thousand yearsк юeginning in Sung яhina of the ннthйноth century and traversing Genoaи Veniceи Portugalи the Netherlandsи юritй ainи and the United Statesи the claim is that each actor дor at least most of the actorsе in succession played an unusually critical role in creating a structure of leadership that became increasingly global in scope across timeк эlong the wayи a number of wars also performed roles as catalytic opportunities for the emergence of renewed leaderй shipк Who won and lost these wars provides the basic fulcrum for developing counй по | Thompson terfactual understandings of what was at stakeк If things had worked out differentlyи markedly different structures of world politics and globalization possibilities would have been developedк In that senseи it can be claimed that the significance of what did occurи the armature of the economic leadership historical scriptи has been reinforcedи albeit indirectlyк я COUNTERFACTUALS AND HISTORICAL SCRIPTS ounterfactuals are said to possess a bad flavor in history circlesкн They are ofй ten dismissed as without value or worseк юut historians have their own probй lems and we need not dwell on their intraйdisciplinary disputesк Social scientists have not quite fully embraced counterfactuals eitherк The two main reasons for this recalcitrance appear to be their implications for causality presumptions and their ulй timate utilityк яausallyйspeaking counterfactuals have some potential to be upsettingк We proceed on the basis of X ‘causing’ Yк When someone comes along and suggests that the Y outcome may have hinged on some minor flap of ‘butterfly wings’ or thatи at bestи X might have led to a half dozen different and equally plausible Y outcomesи the foundation of positivist social science is seemingly threatenedк эn extreme case is Williamson Murray’s доммме very brief яhurchill counterfactualк In нхпн a New York яity cab driver collided with Winston яhurchill on a street corner and injured himк Murray goes on to suggest that if яhurchill had been killed in the acй cident that a strategically beleaguered юritain would have surrendered in нхрми turned over their fleet to the Germans whoи in turnи would have conquered Europe by нхру and gone on to fight the UкSк forces in South эmericaк Just how these events would have come about are not explicated in the Murray scenarioк юut the overarching asй sumption is that one man stood in the way of a European victory by the Germansк Remove the one man and all is lost—or wonи depending on one’s perspectiveко There is a simple theory of the Great Man lurking in this taleк We do not usually base our social science theories on singular individualsк The нхрс outcome is most нк Judging by the number of historians who have written counterfactualsи this complaint may be exagй geratedк ок э similar effort by Large доммме has эnnie Oakley shooting a cigar held by an impetuous Kaiser Wilй helm II in нффхк If her aim had been less accurate and she had killed the Kaiserи the author suggests that Germany might not have pursued an aggressive Weltpolitik policy in World War Iк This particular counterfactual is saved by the author’s last line in which he notes that Oakley wrote the Kaiser after the war asking for a second tryк Fiefer доммое advances the thesis that if Lenin had been unable to get to Russia in нхнуи the юolsheviks would have failed to take over the Russian government and there would have been no Russian яivil Warи no Stalinи and no яold Warк яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | пп usually explainedи most brieflyи by the observation that the winning side had access to a great deal more material resources than the losing sideк In retrospectи if not ineviй tableи the эllied victory was highly probable based on this asymmetry of powerк To be told that much of that asymmetry made little difference and that it all hinged on a taxi driver’s error a decade or so earlier is downright irritatingи if not disturbingк Soи not only do counterfactuals complicate our ability to test theories by requiring potentially the construction of many possible rival hypotheses дwhat if Rooseveltи Stalinи or Eisenй hower had diedи Rommel been triumphant in the North эfrican desertи or Hitler had been more successful as an artistые that would be exceedingly di cult to testи they also undermine the possibility of reasonably parsimonious theory constructionк World War II engaged many millions of people quite directlyк The presence or absence of just how many different individuals might have made some differenceы Since most of our theories exclude specific personalitiesи how are we to proceedы If counterfactuй als such as Murray’s were the ruleи we could literally paralyze ourselves attempting to cope with their analytical implicationsк Not surprisinglyи the easiest solution is to simply evade counterfactuals altogetherк There isи howeverи at least one way in which counterfactuals might play a useful role in the study of world politicsк эnalysts of world politics дand globalizationе share no common understanding of the history of their subject matterк I do not mean to suggest that there is disagreement about whether a World War I occurredк Ratherи there is an extensive disagreement about what time periods matter for developing a theoretical understanding of international relationsк For the hardestйcore realistи hisй torical time periods are not all that criticalк эny should do equally well because nothй ing much has changedк Liberals focus on integrating tendencies toward greater interй dependence and thus are apt to start with the late нхth century globalization upsurgeи even though earlier globalization upsurges are readily discernibleк Others dispute the value of нрхри нтрфи нфнси or нхрс starting points for ‘modernity’ in international relaй tionsк э late нсth century starting point keys on the French drive into Italy as an act ushй ering in a period of increasing Western European systemйness thanksи in part to the Spanish resistance and the long HabsburgйValois feud that became a regional armaй ture of conflict for the next century and a halfк э midйнтth century starting point emй phasizes a legalistic transition from empires to states as the central actor of internaй tional politicsк The postйNapoleonic нфнс is usually meant to capture the significance of emergent industrialization for altering the fundamental nature of international reй lations—orи if not its nature at least its formк The dropping of two atomic bombs on пр | Thompson Japan in нхрс is a salient turning point for some who stress the distinctions between nuclear and preйnuclear international politicsкп The adherence to multiple starting points need not matter muchк Yetи it seems to do soк эnalysts who start at different points in time tend to adopt vastly differй ent perspectives on what world politics is aboutк No doubtи there is more to these disagreements than simply different preferences for starting pointsк юut the fact that analysts have much different historical scripts underlying their analyses seems less than coincidentalк The Lead Economy Sequence (from Sung China to the United States) There areи to be sureи nonйtrivial reasons for initiating one’s international relations hisй torical script at one point or anotherк Nuclear weaponsи industrial revolutionsи and systemйness are not to be treated lightlyк юut another way of looking at these more recent points is that they are simply that—more recent transition points—in a longer term process that changed fundamentally a millennium agoк Weapon innovationsи inй dustrial productivityи and systemйness are also related to the earlier transition pointк The argument is not that the earlier transition point is necessarily more significant than more recent onesк Ratherи the point is that the nature of world politics underwent a fundamental change millennium that turned out to have rather major structural imй plications for world politicsк None of the more recent transition points have eliminated the significance of the earlier pointк They areи on the contraryи underйrecognized byй products of the earlier fundamental transition in systemic processesк What happened a thousand years ago to transform the basic nature of world poliй ticsы The яhineseи ruled by the Sung Dynastyи created the first ‘modern’ economyи characterized by monetarization and paper moneyи extensive commercial transactions on landи via canalsлriversи and on seaи maritime technology that involved multiйmasted junks guided by advanced navigation skills unlike anything known elsewhereи unprecй edented iron production fueled by military demandи and the development of gunй powder weaponryк Without going into the details of economic innovationи the Sung appear to have been the first landйbased state to transcend the limitations of agrarian economies via radical innovations in a host of economic activities ranging from agriй culture through manufacturing to energy and transportationк In this respectи яhinaи пк No doubtи some might include нхфхлхн for ushering in a postйяold War era and for the genuinely эmericanйcentric analystи September нни оммн might be seen as a critical turning point in perceived UкSк vulnerability at leastк яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | пс roughly a thousand years agoи deserves the appellation of the first modern economyкр While this breakthrough has major implications for economic developmentи what does it matter for world politicsы The answer is that it is the origin of a sequential process in which a lead economy emerges as the primary source for radical economic innovations that drive productivityи transportationи and commerceк Earlier states had managed to monopolize various types of innovation before but there was no continuй ity to the processк Innovations were both less radical in general and more isolated in time and spaceк What took place in Sung яhina initiated a process that can be traced through the next millennium and is still very much with us in even more developed and complex formк Given its considerable economic lead in about the ннthйноth centuryи Sung яhina might have been expected to inaugurate movement toward an increasingly Sinocenй tric world systemк It did notк In contrast to the image that we now possess of continuity in яhinese imperial predominance in East эsiaи the Sung accomplished many of their breakthroughs in a competitive and threatening East эsian multipolar systemк That East эsia contained multiple powerful actors a millennium ago may have contributй ed to the Sung economic breakthrough in transcending agrarian constraintsк Military threat certainly encouraged iron production for armor and weapons and gunpowй der applicationsк The inability to trade overland due to the hostility of neighbors may well have encouraged maritime developmentsк Yet this same threatening environment proved to be overwhelmingк The Sung first lost North яhina with its ore and saltpeter deposits that were critical to iron and gunpowder production to the Manchurian Juй rchensк South яhina was eventually overrun by the Mongols in the нпth centuryк The East эsian threat environment and outcomes in combat between the яhinese and their rivals set back the early яhinese lead in economic productivity and military innovationк It did not extinguish the innovations altogether but it did accelerate their diffusion in the western directionк Mongol armies coйopted gunpowder and яhinese engineers and spread the military innovations throughout Eurasiaк The success of Mongol imperial domination created an opportunity for some Europeans дVenice and рк Seeи among othersи Hartwell днхттеи Gernet днхфоеи McNeill днхфоеи Jones днхффеи Modelski and Thompson днххтеи Maddison днххфеи and Hobson доммре on the Sung economic revolutionк De Vries and van der Woude днххуе make a good case for the нуth century Dutch deserving the first modern economy appellationк They certainly have a point in the sense in contrasting what the Dutch accomй plished visйàйvis the subsequent юritish industrial revolutionк Menzies доммфц онре briefly argues for нсth century northern Italy as the first European industrial ‘nation’и based on borrowed яhinese technologyк яertainlyи the case for an ItalianйNetherlandsйюritain European sequence of increasingly revolutionary industrialization deserves considerationк пт | Thompson Genoa for the most partе to control the western ends of increased Eurasian eastйwest tradeк эccompanying this increased trade were a number of ideas about technological innovation in maritime commerce and manufacturing that helped stimulate subseй quent navigational and industrial revolutions in the Mediterranean and in Western Euй ropeк The technical ability to escape the Mediterranean and sail around the world was further encouraged in various ways by the indirectly Mongolйinduced юlack Deathи the demise of the Mongol empireи and increasing problems in engaging in trade on land in Eurasia in the absence of a singular imperial regimeк Portugal was encouraged ultiй mately to stumble into the Indian Ocean as a means of breaking the VenetianйMamluk maritime monopoly on эsian spices coming into European marketsкс Venetianи Genoeseи and Portuguese innovations in developing maritime comй mercial networks and infrastructure дboatsи basesи and governmental regulationе were impressive but were based on limited resource basesк The political implications of a sequence of lead economies took on a more overt appearance as the sequential lead moved on to the нуth century Dutchи the нфth—нхth century юritishи and the омth cenй tury United Statesк Perhaps the most overt consequences were in the outcomes of reй peated attempts to take over the European regionк The lead economies by no means stopped singleйhandedly the ambitions of the Spanishи the Frenchи and the Germans through нхрск юut they were certainly significant as coalition organizersлsubsidizersл strategic leadersи concentrations of economic wealthи conduits for extraйEuropean reй sourcesи and developers of tactical and weaponry innovations in the military sphereк Without the lead economiesи markedly different outcomes in the warfare of the later нтth—early нуthи later нуth—early нфthи later нфth—early нхth and the first half of the омth centuries are not di cult to imagineк It does not seem an exaggeration to state that our most basic understanding of the ‘reality’ of world politics owes a great deal to the lead economy sequence that began to emerge in Sung яhina a millennium agoк э corollary of this generalization is that the нрхри нфнси and нхрс transition points were dependent to varying degrees on the Sung breakthroughк The movement of the French into Italy in the нрхмs reflected the general deterioration of the lateйmedieval Italian lead over the rest of Europe thanks in part to Italian cityйstate control of the western distribution of Eurasian eastйwest tradeк That isи the French moved into a deй caying Italian cityйstate subsystem and not when it was still thriving earlier in the нсth ск On the postйSungи Mediterranean transitional periodи see Modelski and Thompson днххтц нуу–омфек Different viewsи sometimes in agreement and sometimes notи may be found in Lane днхупеи McNeill днхуреи Scammell днхфнеи Lewis днхффеи эbuйLughod днхфхеи Tracy днххмеи and Findlay and O’Rourke доммуек эngus Maddison’s доммнц chк ое interpretation of this period increasingly resembles the leaderй ship long cycle view expressed in Modelski and Thompson днххтек яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | пу centuryк The юritishйled Industrial Revolutionи culminating in a number of production breakthroughs in iron and textiles in the late нфth century and onи was dependent on information developed earlier on the other end of the Eurasian continentк Such a statement does not imply that the European industrial revolution could not have ocй curred in the absence of earlier яhinese developments—only that it did not have to do soк The нхрс revolution in military technology embodied in nuclear weaponsи of courseи was also a resultant of the interaction of the earlier gunpowder revolution and the later industrial revolutionк э case can therefore be made for strong linkages among contemporary дread ‘modern’е world politicsи economic developmentи and military weaponry that can be traced back to Sung яhina in the ннth and ноth centuriesк Where do counterfactuals fit into this bigger pictureы юasicallyи they reinforce the importance of this interpretation of the history of world political economy whileи at the same timeи emphasizing the fraй gility of historical contingenciesк юut even the fragility underscores the significance of a historical understanding of the continuing evolution of world politicsк яontemplatй ing what might have been gives us all the more reason to pay attention to what did transpireк э third value of counterfactuals is that they help to defeat the determinisй tic complaint so often levied against systemic interpretationsк Things did not have to work out the way they didк э variety of otherи alternative trajectories are conceivableкт Yet the plausibility of alternative realities does not detract from the fundamental fact that a historical trajectory or path was traveled that was critical to both the developй ment of world political systemйness and some of its most important structural feaй turesк E EIGHT COUNTERFACTUALS ight counterfactuals followк Others are imaginableк Indeedи the potential number of alternative turns are rather numerousи if not infiniteк юut the eight that have been developed place maximum attention on the Sung to United States historiй cal script and its possible twists at most of the major potential turning pointsк Note that each successive counterfactual is rendered less likely if preceding counterfactuals тк I feel personally compelled to make this point because I have engaged in an academic debate with Ned Lebow over the implications of эrchduke Ferdinand not dying in Sarajevo in нхнр дLebowи омммй оммни оммпч Thompsonи оммпч and continued in Goertz в Levyи оммуек Lebow argues that it is possible that World War I would never have occurred if Ferdinand had escaped assassinationк I argue that World War I was probable due to certain systemic processesи including a number of ‘ripe’ rivalriesи leaderйchalй lenger transitional dynamicsи and increasing polarizationк None of this means that World War I could not have taken a different formк For a completely different perspectiveи see the argument made by Schroeder доммрек юut see also Taylor днхуо [нхпо]ек пф | Thompson had actually materialized to alter the futureк яounterfactual noк нц The Sung did not need to have lost North яhina to the Juй rchen steppe warriors дseeи eкgки Yatesи оммтек They had allied with the Jurchen initially to defeat a mutual enemyи the Kitan empireи later called Liaoк In the processи the Juй rchen realized how vulnerable Sung areas were to attack andи after Liao was defeatedи turned to raiding their former alliesк The initial goal was the customary hitйandйrun exй tortion but the Jurchen forces managed to capture the Sung capital and emperor after a string of disastrous battlesк The Sung forces retreated to South яhina abandoning North яhina to the Jurchen conquerorsку Ifи howeverи the Sung had defeated the Juй rchen and maintained control of the North—a possibility that was not inconceivable with better political and military managersи they would have been in a good or at least much better position to have defeated the Mongols in the next steppeйsedentary itй eration a century or more laterкф э decisive defeat of the Mongols would have had a considerable impact on subsequent historyк In East эsiaи Sung economic and military progress could have continued unabated with less pressure from northern and westй ern threatsк Subordinated Mongols would mean that some twoйthirds of Eurasia from Korea to Hungary would not have come under Mongol controlк эn accelerated diffuй sion of industrial and military technology throughout Eurasia would have been less probableк э яhinese setйback would have been avoided and the opportunity for a European catchйup might have disappeared altogetherк No юlack Death mightи paraй doxicallyи have led to overpopulation problems in Europeкх Western Europe might still have developed economically but surely at a much slower rateи especially if the introй duction of gunpowder and cannons had come much laterк The need for competitive states in Western Europe to pay for increasing levels of military expenditures would also have developed much more slowlyк It is conceivable that the Protestant revolt against яatholic hegemony would have failed eventuallyи depending on whether the ук See Lorge доммсц снйсте for an account of the initial SungйJurchen combatк Haeger днхусе frames the policy debate within Sung circles as one of nonйaccommodation versus appeasement with policyй makers preferring negotiation and concessions prevailingк фк Despite an unimpressive response to Mongol attacks in the early нпth centuryи it still took two deй cades for the Mongols to defeat the Jurchen дLorgeи оммсц уме before moving on to the Sung in the midйнпth century whoи in turnи were not finally defeated until ноутк Peterson днхусе argues that if the Sung had realized that the Mongols would prove to be an even greater threat than the Jurchenи they might have pursued much different and less passive policies that could have altered the outcome subй stantiallyи even without controlling North яhinaк Most pertinent to counterfactual considerationsи the appropriate response was debated at the timeи with advocates of a harder line strategy losing to modй erates who preferred not acting at allк хк One interpretation of the юlack Death is that eliminating roughly a third of the European population meant that the survivors had more income per capita to spend on longйdistance trade goods than might otherwise have been the caseк яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | пх Netherlands gained its independence and England still joined the Protestant ranksк Without the эmerican silver that the Spanish distributed throughout Europe in miliй tary expendituresи fewer resources would have been available in Northern Europe for economic developmentк Farther east Muscovy would not have been favored by Mongol rulersк Kiev might have become the Russian center or an enlarged PolishйLithuania andлor an expanded Sweden might have eventually absorbed eastern territory all the way to Siberiaк Even the Ottoman Empire might have been able to expand to the northeast and continued to be an expansive empire past its late нуth century peakк It is hard to say what might have become of European forays down the coast of эfrica or to the эmericasк They might not have occurred at all or if they didи they might have come about at a slower pace and centuries laterк In generalи thoughи we would have much less reason to exй pect a European ascendancy to have taken placeк Even if for some reason яhina had not become the most salient region in the world дas opposed to Western Europeеи we should expect greater symmetry in the world’s power distribution to have evolved afй ter нфмм than in fact did emergeкнм яounterfactual noк оц The Mongol attack on Eurasia was neither premeditated nor inevitableк Temujin or Genghis Khan acknowledged that he had little idea how vulnerй able his opponents were at the outsetк Only gradually did he realize that there was little to stop his attacks and that he could dream about conquering the ‘world’кнн Reй moving a single individual from history is a favorite ploy of alternative historyк Whethй er everything would have been different if one individual was removed from the scene ‘prematurely’ is often a dubious propositionк юut in the case of the Mongolsи a great deal did rest on Temujinкно Quite a few attempts to murder him very early on could easily have worked out differentlyкнп In his absenceи it seems unlikely that the coaliй нмк Pomeranz доммтеи for oneи is skeptical that яhina would have duplicated the юritish industrial revoluй tionк ннк Jackson доммсц рте suggests that the earliest evidence that Mongols believed that they were enй gaged in world domination dates only from the нормsи a generation after the initiation of the Mongol expansionк нок Lorge доммсц туе offers an antidote to an overly enthusiastic ‘great man’ interpretation of Temujin when he describes him as ‘not a particularly brilliant general or accomplished warriorи nor was he physiй cally very braveк His abilities in all three areas were respectableи he could not have become a steppe leader otherwiseи but he most distinguished himself as a politicianи both strategically and charismaticalй lyк яhinggis’s armies overran most of эsia because he had managed to unite separate and often warring steppe tribes and turn their preexisting military capabilities outwardк His tactics were not innovativeи and it seems the only substantive change he imposed upon the steppe armies was to spread a decimal organization system throughout his entire forces’к нпк Weatherford доммрц пйууе retells a number of stories from the Secret History of the Mongols that indicate that Temujin was exceedingly lucky to have survived attempts to eliminate him beginning with рм | Thompson tions and military organizations that he created would have been very likelyи particuй larly since they required an abrupt departure from standard operating practices that presumably was motivated by Temujin’s inability to successfully manipulate or rely on traditional organizational formsк эny developments that might have been associated with a Sung victory over the Jurchen and Mongols would also have been equally likely with an aborted Mongol takeover of Eurasiaк In the absence of a Genghis Khanи the most likely nomadйsedй entary pattern would have resembled the traditional trade and raid alternation that existed prior to the rise of Temujin to unprecedented power as the leader of яentral Eurasian nomadsк яhina would not have been occupied by the Mongolsк яhinese deй cisionйmakers would have been far less likely to develop their Mongol phobia which led to greater o cial insularity from the outside world and a preoccupation with the northwestern frontier after the first third of the нсth century and into the нфth centuryк The Ming decision to withdraw from the outside world would have been less likelyк юut then soи tooи would the probability of the existence of a Ming dynastyк While it is likely that яhinese vulnerability to northern invasions would have conй tinuedи there still would have been a much greater probability that any Europeans venturing into эsian waters in the нтth century would have encountered a stronger яhinese naval presence than was actually the caseк эs it wasи яhinese naval technolй ogy in the early нтth century was still adequate to the task of beating back the initial Portuguese intrusion into яhinese watersк эn alternative future might have seen all European coercive maritime intrusions in the general эsian area repelled early onк яhinese technology would have diffused more slowly to the Westк It is certainly conceivable that eastern Eurasia would have improved its technological edge over western Eurasiaк If soи any maritime European ventures to the East might well have been restricted to the small enclaves they initially occupied in the нтth through нфth centuriesк The European dominance of эsia in the нхth and омth century would have been far less likely without an asymmetricalи European industrial edgeк эlternativelyи technological changes at both ends of Eurasia might have proceeded along parallel tracks and timingк The end result wouldи of courseи have been a vastly different history everywhere in Eurasia encompassing the last halfйmillenniaи if not longerк being abandoned by his own family at a very early ageи through his capture for slaying his halfйbrotherи and escapes from various clashes with rival clans and tribes—all before his emergence as leader of the Mongolsк эlternativelyи Peterson днхусе discusses how the Sung might have reacted more proactively than they did to the initial appearance of the Mongolsк яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | рн яounterfactual noк пц The European push into the эtlantic was stimulated by a variety of factorsк It required larger ships with more masts and sailи ruddersи and better navigational capabilitiesк To some extent these hinged on яhinese naval technology diffusing westward and major improvements in Mediterranean and southern Euroй pean maritime technologyк Information about яhinese naval technology would probй ably have diffused in any event but perhaps at a slower rateк эlternativelyи there is the possibility that яhinese fleets might have circumnavigated эfrica as opposed to proй ceeding no further than eastern эfrica in the нрth centuryк If яhinese movement into the Mediterranean hadи had a parallel impact to the Portuguese movement into the Indian Oceanи a much different version of the gradual Western ascendancy in the East is quite likelyкнр For the first three centuries or so of western expansion in Eurasiaи the Portugueseи Dutchи and English were just able to hang onto precarious bases along the coast until technological developments involving steam engines and improved weapons gave them a decisive edgeк The motivation to seek profits in the eastйwest trade had a great deal to do with greed which we can assume is pretty much a constant in world historyк The western European push in the late нсth centuryи neverthelessи was motivated in part by a deй sire to circumvent the VenetianйMamluk monopoly whichи in turnи was an outcome traceable to GenoeseйVenetian conflict over how best to monopolize the юlack Sea position on the overland Silk Routesк The юlack Sea position was initially advantaged by the Pax Mongolica and then disadvantaged when the Mongols lost their control over a respectable proportion of Eurasiaк The resulting higher costs on overland trade made the maritime routes connecting east and west via the Persian Gulf and Red Sea in the west more attractive—henceи the VenetianйMamluk lock became more probй able after the Genoese position in the юlack Sea дwrested earlier from the Venetiansе became less attractiveкнс Genoese investment in Portuguese and Spanish explorations into the near эtlantic was also a concomitant of Genoa losing in the Eastern Mediterй ranean дto the Venetiansе and moving west looking for new profitable opportunities дeкgки slaves and sugar productionе in the Western Mediterranean and beyondк Where does that leave the Portuguese circumnavigation of эfricaы Portugal broke the VenetianйMamluk lock on эsian spices coming into the Mediterranean for a few decades at leastк The push into the Indian Ocean required considerable technological нрк Menzies доммфе argues for what will seem to many others to sound very counterfactualк He claims that a яhinese fleet visited Italy in the нрпмs and stimulated the Italian Renaissanceк Howeverи one could argue that the European push into the эtlantic predated the нрпмs by several hundred yearsк нск The story is complicated further by the Genoese practice of supplying new slaves for the Mamluk military organization from the юlack Sea area becoming less viable as Mamluk military competition with Mongols wanedк ро | Thompson innovation in ship construction and navigation skills дDevezas в Modelskiи оммфе and took several generations to accomplishк It might have been forestalled by an earlier яastilian conquest of Portugal and the Spanish focus on eliminating Moorish control in the Iberian Peninsula дnot accomplished until нрхоек If the Portuguese had been more successful in seizing Moroccan territory—their first objective in нрнс—they might have been less likely to have kept moving down the эfrican coastline looking for vulnerabilities to exploitк They would have been less likely to have found gold and spices in West эfrica which allowed them to keep going farther southк If the Portuguese had not entered the Indian Ocean in force in the early нтth cenй turyи it is quite likely that no other Europeans would have in that century—at least before нсхс and the Dutch effort to do soк юut would the Dutch have chosen to go around the яape of Good Hope if the Portuguese had not already done soы The Dutch effort was stimulated by a Spanish edict forcing them to look for alternatives to Mediй terranean markets that were being denied to themк Why not circumvent the Mediй terranean markets and go to the sourceы юut the ‘why not’ might have come a little slower if it had not already been accomplished by the Portuguese in the нрхмsк It is also possible to argue that southwestern Europeans were most likely to ‘disй cover’ the эmericas in the late нсth century because they were situated closer to the эmericas than anybody elseк That may well be true but it is possible that the discoverй ies could have been delayed considerably if many of the encouraging factors in the late нсth century had been relatively absent or inoperableк Without эmerican silverи European trade with эsia could not have proceeded as it didк The Europeans initially lacked su cient coercive advantages and had few commoditiesи other than silverи that were desired in the eastк If they could neither buy nor fight their way inи European participation in эsian markets would have been quite marginal at bestк That suggests quite strongly that the European occupation and subordination of Indiaи the Philipй pinesи Indonesiaи andи indirectlyи яhinaи once againи would probably not have taken placeк The current world would be much less unequal in terms of income distribution between statesк яounterfactual noк рц The нсфф Spanish attempt to land troops in England was not well executed but could have succeededк The decision to conquer England stemmed from frustrations encountered in suppressing the Dutch Revoltк The logic was that if English support could be neutralizedи the revolt would failк The нсфф эrmada was intended to provide cover for troopships that would ferry some оуиммм Spanish vetй erans across the яhannelк The soldiers were not quite ready to embark when the эrй mada fleet arrivedк English attacks managed to drive the Spanish fleet north thereby яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | рп interrupting the invasion planк If the English attacks had been less disruptive or if the soldiers hadи had another day or twoи the invasion could have been initiatedк Defendй ing England on land were only a few thousand soldiers with any experience but not necessarily very reliable and some highly dubious militia unitsк э Spanish conquest of England in нсфф could have been even more revolutionary than the Norman one in нмттк Spain was already predominant in Europeк эssuming the assumptions about the loss of English support would have doomed the Dutch Reй voltи Spain andлor its allies would have controlled all of Western Europe within a few yearsк Protestantism would have been on the defensive in England and throughout northern Europeк э Thirty Years War would have been far less likelyк North and South эmerica would have been under Spanish ruleкнт The combination of the Portuguese and Spanish empiresи following Philip II’s acquisition of the Portuguese throne in the early нсфмs would probably not have broken apart in нтрмк The Spanish might also have been able to suppress or delay the нуth century chalй lenge for regional leadership and Spanish relative decline in the second half of the нуth centuryкну Even if the Spanish had failed to stop the French ascentи the probability of EnglishйDutch opposition to Louis XIV’s territorial expansion would have been subй stantially reducedк In sumи Spanish hegemony in Europe and elsewhere would have been considerably reinforcedк When or if Spain’s predominance had run its courseи it would most likely have been simply replaced by France—meaning that Western Europe’s fabled competitiveness could easily have disappearedи with major repercusй sions for consequent economic and military developments that drove Europe to the center of the world system by the нхth centuryк In this respectи the ‘Rise of the West’ might have been derailed altogether or at least postponed considerablyк яounterfactual noк сц Goldstone доммте has William of Orange successfully invadй ing England in нтфф and capturing the English crown but then has him die in нтхм from a wound sustained in Irish fighting in нтхмк The wounding actually occurred but in reality was less than fatalк William proceeded to eliminate resistance to his rule in England and Irelandк More importantlyи the larger motivation for this conquest of England was realizedк In нтфф France was preparing to attack эustria before resuming its intention of absorbing the Netherlandsк England under the яatholic ruler James could be expected to again follow the French leadи as in the early нтумsи with a mariй нтк Somerset’s доммре counterfactual has the эmerican colonies revolting eventually from a яatholic England not controlled by Spainк нук Parker доммме thinks Spanish hegemony was doomed in any event thanks to Habsburg inйbreeding and successively weaker rulersк See Martin and Parker днхххе for some equivocation about the likeliй hood of Spanish success had they landed in Englandк рр | Thompson time attack on the Netherlandsк эs Dutch stadtholderи William’s invasion of England with Dutch troops not only neutralized the English threatи it also brought England solidly into the coalition to thwart Louis XIVк юy нунпи a financially exhausted Netherй lands had become юritain’s junior partner in managing the international relations of Western Europe andи increasinglyи longйdistance commerce as юritain emerged into its first global system leader iterationк эctuallyи Goldstone acknowledges that his scenario works whether the нтхм wound had been fatal or if William’s invasion had failed due to an English naval interй ception at sea дthwarted by prevailing windsе or greater resistance on land than had occurredк Of the two possibilitiesи the latter seems more promising for counterfactual construction purposesкнф In any eventи a French and English attack on the Netherlands in the late нтфмs from land and sea could have been too much for the Dutch to withй standк Goldstone suggests that at best the Netherlands would have been subordinatй ed to French regional predominance that would have included a French king on the Spanish throne дwithout a War of Spanish Successionе and French access to the Spanй ish empireк France might well have maintained its hold on яanada andи should there still have been a revolutionary war in the юritish colonies in North эmericaи French inй tervention could easily have been on behalf of юritain rather than the эmerican revoй lutionariesк To the extent that the French Revolution was predicated on French state bankй ruptcy due to the escalating military costs of the нфth centuryи the Revolution might have been avoided if France had sustained fewer costs and more successes in places such as North эmericaи the яaribbean and Indiaк Presumablyи antagonism with Gerй mans and эustrians would have persisted but the ultimate outcome would have been a gradual shift eastward of the French boundaries due to French military successes along and beyond the Rhineк Latin эmerica and the яaribbean would have remained within a FrenchйSpanish colonial empireк Indiaи at bestи might have been partitioned with юritainк эs late as нхмми Western Europe would have remained subject to French predominance with possible эustrian expansion into the юalkans without a strong German protectorк нфк Pestana доммте notes that if William had died in нтхми Mary would still have assumed the English throne which might not have changed history all that muchк яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | рс Goldstone adds in a strong technological component as wellкнх яatholic hegemoй ny in England does not stifle scientific research but the socioйpolitical environment becomes less encouragingк Hugenots fleeing French persecution no longer view юritй ain as a welcome havenк The юritish navy’s growthи no longer fueled by эngloйFrench antagonismи does not become a major catalyst for industrial experimentation and organizationк э number of direct and indirect advances in iron manufactureи steam engine constructionи and textile spinning machines are precluded as a consequenceк The expansion of coal as a source of energy is restrictedк The potential and implicaй tions of Newtonian science are never realized or fully developedк Europe would have been powerful in some parts of the world дthe эmericasе but not necessarily in эsiaк Moreoverи the combination of the lack of changes in political and economic structures implies that юritish democratization might not have progressed much either—with major ramifications for democratization elsewhere as wellком яounterfactual noк тц The first counterfactual published as a book дGeoffroyйяhaй teau нфпте focused on Napoleon passing on a Russian attack and instead going on to conquer the worldкон Zamoyski доммре envisions a successful second French attack into Russia after an earlier нфно withdrawal from Moscowк Russia acknowledges defeat and surrenders its юaltic and Polish territoryк Finland is returned to Swedenк Russian troops are dispatched to Spain to fight in the guerrilla warfare thereк Prussia is demotй ed to a юrandenburg dukedomк юritainи losing in the юaltic and Eastern Mediterranean to combined FrenchйRussian forcesи accepts a negotiated peaceк Most of Europeи outside of the эustrian empireи becomes first the яonfederation of Europe and then the Empire of Europeи with Napoleon as emperorк Interstate rivalries within Europe are gradually extinguished and replaced by a regional bureaucratic framework focusй ing increasingly on regulatory functionsкоо In part because Russian decisionйmakers нхк The Goldstone scenario is predicated on the assumption that only England and to a lesser extent the Netherlands were pulling free from a continental propensity toward monarchical absolutism and conforй mityк Eliminate the ‘pulling fee’ element and you unravel the probable development of western science and technologyк эt the same timeи England was not all that much different from the rest of Europe so that slight alterations in political and military fortunes would have led to a less exceptional development trajectoryк омк эnother interesting Goldstone assumption is that industrialization and representative democracy are not general processes butи essentiallyи rare events based on ‘a unique combination of factors that came together by chance in one location and generally not elsewhere’ дGoldstone оммтц нхпек онк See Shapiro днххфек э now dated but annotated bibliography of alternative histories can be found in Hacker and яhamberlain днхфтек оок Trevelyan днхуо [нхпо]е also has Napoleon’s imperial system surviving in much of Western Europe after Napoleon wins the юattle of Waterlooк яarr домммеи on the other handи suggests that if Napoleon had won at Waterlooи interstate warfare would simply have continued throughout the нхth centuryк Horne доммме thinks that even if Napoleon had won at Waterlooи it would not have ended the Napoleй onic Wars until Napoleon was defeated decisively—but this would not have taken too long to accomй plish given the number of troops available to the continental opponents of the Frenchк рт | Thompson proved incapable of returning their country to its нфth century formи industrialization sets in successfully and earlier than it might have in an alternative universeк Nevertheй lessи by the end of the нхth centuryи economic growth was proceeding most quickly outside of Europe and Russia with dominant economic centers emerging in North эmericaи юrazilи southern эfrica and some parts of эsiaк яounterfactual noк уц Imagine what is called World War I being waged without юritain or the United Statesк We would not call it World War I but regard it presumably as a widerйscale version of the FrancoйPrussian War in нфум–нфун in which German predominance in Europe was introducedи if not establishedк э GermanйэustroйHunй garian war versus France and Russia presumably would have led to a similar collapse in the East and a less familiar defeat of Franceк It is even conceivable that the яentral Powers could have won the day with юritain in but without the infusion of UкSк reй sources from нхну onк Neither юritish nor UкSк involvement in World War I was ever inevitableк юritain might have remained aloof in нхнри as the Germans hopedкоп The United States presumably entered late in the war to get a seat at the victors’ negotiaй tion table but would it still have intervened if it was clear that the яentral Powers were winningы One of the main implications of this scenario is that to the extent World War II was a continuation of unresolved issues in World War Iи World War II might not have come about at allкор The process is similar to the story of a time traveler that accidenй tally eliminates one of her ancestors only to find that she has eliminated herself in the processк That clearly does not mean that the омth century would have been pacificк It might still have managed to kill as many or perhaps even more people as a funcй tion of the industrialization of warfare but the format and maybe even the alignments might have been considerably differentк If soи it might have been very di cult to reach the kind of world that sprang from the defeat of Germany and Japan in нхрск To be sureи the pace of relative decline дюritain’s for instanceе would have been slower and the pace of ascent дthe United States and RussiaлSoviet Unionе might have been much slowerк The twentieth century дand afterе could conceivably have remained multipolar and characterized by many smaller or more localized wars through its entiretyк The total wars of the twentieth century required the full participation of the great powers in two major exercises in bloodйlettingк In the absence of the total warsи we might not опк Ferguson днххуbе offers a detailed scenario for such an outcome and goes on to suggest that early German hegemony in Europe would have been better for юritainи possibly for Russiaи and would have excluded the first UкSк intervention into European affairsк It might have simply led to an early version of the European Unionк орк Howeverи юlumetti доммпе offers a scenario in which the war ends in нхнт without UкSк participation but in which a second world war is still wagedк яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | ру recognize a world of weaker statesи less advanced technologyи and more complexи crossйcutting interactions among the more powerful states in this version of realityкос яounterfactual noк фц The last counterfactual has a different outcome for World War IIк One way in which this alternative outcome might have come about is if the German attack on the Soviet Union in нхрн had been successful relatively quicklyи thereby allowing the Germans to turn on юritain and take it as wellкот Downing доммн [нхух]е has an extensive scenario that focuses on an early German defeat of the Soviet Union but leaves the implications fairly openйended with юritain and the United States continuing to prepare for an assault on German positions at some vulnerable pointи perhaps in Egyptк Lucas днххсе also has the Germans capture Moscow before the нхрн winter set in which leads to an incorporation of the Soviet Union into the Third Reichк юurleigh днххуе argues that if the Lucas scenario had played outи the Germans might have installed puppet regimes in separatist parts of the юalticи юyelorussiaи the яauй casusи and the Ukraineк On the other handи these were some of the same territoriesи the Germans sought as part of the Lebensraum program and could anticipate some degree of German colonization and SS genocideк юurleigh днххуе also contends that we should expect the German war aims to have focused on other parts of the globe once their share of Eurasia was in handк эfricaи the Dutch colonial empire in Southeast эsiaи and the United States would have become the next targets of an expanding German empireк In contrastи Montefiore доммре has Stalin executed by his lieutenants дMolotov and юeriaе but then Molotov leads a nationalistic resistance and counterй attack against the Germans in a way that the Georgian Stalin could not haveк The subй sequent scenario plays out in typical яold War fashion except that Molotov survives to rule continuously after the war up to the Soviet invasion of эfghanistan in нхухк He is replaced by Gorbachev in нхфтк Herwig доммте has the Germans defeating the Soviet Union but a similar postйнхрс future is salvaged by the UкSк deploying atomic weapons against the Germansк The subsequent Pax эmerica is then due to UкSк acй tions alone—as opposed to a Sovietйэngloлэmerican war effortк юlumetti доммпе also has a German victory in нхро that does not prevent a Soviet resurgence in нхррйнхрск Some scenarios have Germany occupying юritain before taking on the Soviet Union дMackseyи нхфми нххсе but if Germany had managed to defeat the Soviet Union decisively and quicklyи there might have been little to interfere with a renewed focus оск Without the exhaustion of юritish resources in two world wars and the pressure of a new эmerican system leaderи decolonizationи presumablyи would at least have been delayedк отк In addition to having the юritish surrender early дRoberts оммоеи another way is to have the Germans skip the Soviet attack altogetherк Keegan доммме pushes a scenario that has Germany move into the Middle East for the oil that it hoped to acquire in the Soviet Unionк Fromkin доммме echoes this gambit in a sketchy wayк эn inventory of alternative options is found in эlexander домммек рф | Thompson on юritainкоу If both the Soviet Union and юritain had been taken out of the World War II equationи it is hard to imagine a нхрс scenario in which the United States emerged as the most prosperous and powerful leader of an antiйэxis coalitionк эt bestи much of the world would be divided between Germanyи the United States and Japan in an extremely uneasy cold warк эt worseи the three might have continued fighting indefiй nitely until or unless one party came up with atomic weapons before the othersк юut keep in mind the эmerican lead in the nuclear race presumes that the German effort was hardйpressed while Germany was under a multipleйfront attackк э different outй come might have occurred if Germany had been less hardйpressedк Roberts днххуц поме also notes that many of the scientists who later worked on the UкSк atomic bomb were in юritain in нхрм and most would have been captured if the Germans had ocй cupied юritain early onкоф э different approach to World War II is to have the Pacific theater work much differently along the lines of Japan not attacking the United States in нхрнк John Luй kacs’ доммпе counterfactual scenario is premised on the assumption that Japanese and UкSк decisionйmaking circles were both divided on the wisdom of going to war in late нхрнк We know that the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in December precipitating an unsurprising UкSк movement into a Pacific Warи quickly globalized by a German declaration of war on the United Statesк юut what if ongoing JapaneseйUкSк negotiaй tions had achieved some level agreement that caused the Japanese not to attackы In Lukacs’ storyи German successes in the Soviet Union and North эfrica encourage the Japanese to attack юritain in Southeast эsiaк э bombing of Hong Kong harbor leads to the sinking of two UкSк ships and a declaration of war on Japan by the United States in нхрок The rest of the scenario proceeds along lines similar to what actually transpired with the UкSк ultimately defeating the Japanese and gradually becoming more active in the European theater as wellкох юlack доммреи alternativelyи simply gives the United States more time to prepare for a concentrated effort to enter the European theaterк оук Roberts днххуц пмме notes that there was precious little left to defend юritainи aside from some surplus mustard gas left over from World War Iи in May of нхрм when the invasion was first proposed to Hitlerк офк э reader of an earlier version of this paperи Joachim Rennstichи notes that to the extent that postй нхрс Soviet and UкSк nuclear and space capabilities benefited from scientists and information captured at the end of World War IIи a German victory would have led to less or slower diffusion of technology in this sphere as wellк охк Rose доммме has the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor eliminating all three of the UкSк carriers that formed the core of the postйPearl Harbor UкSк Navy in the real worldи without really elaborating the conй sequencesк яook доммме has the Japanese win at Midway but the UкSк still prevails eventually in the Paй cific Warк Some of the scenarios in Tsouras’s доммне edited work are similar but with different outcomesк юlack доммре uses a premise similar to Lukacs’ which keeps the Japanese from attacking and gives the United States two more years to build up its military forces to fight in Europeк яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | рх Tsouras’s scenario дTsourasи оммнч see as well Tsourasи оммое is more interestingк He has Japanи following up clashes in the нхомs and нхпмsи attacking the Soviet Union in нхрн in coordination with the German юarbarossa attackкпм юy March нхрои the Soй viet Union is forced to withdraw from this version of World War II with the Germans occupying Moscow and the Japanese in control of Vladivostok and its surrounding provinceк Tsouras halts his scenario at this point but it is clear that the nature of the geopolitical landscape has changed dramaticallyк Germany controls most of Europe and North эfricaк Japan is occupying much of East эsiaк эn isolated United States and a юritain that might not have survived long in the circumstances are confronted with a tripolar structure in which the German and Japanese poles are vastly stronger than they were in realityк One can easily imagine the advent of a new type of cold war until or unless somebody was prepared to strike across the эtlantic andлor Pacificкпн W CONCLUSION e have now looked at a number of alternative scenarios relating to events occurring in the last one thousand yearsк The initial claim is that a sequence of lead economies beginning with Sung яhina created a critical structure for world politics that was intermittently punctuated by bouts of intensive warfareк These combat episodes were important in facilitating the rise of some key actorsи the decline of othersи and thwarting outcomes that would have led to vastly different worldsк эlй though little attention was paid to some of the intermediate parts of the sequence дspecificallyи the GenoaйVeniceйPortugal stringеи the other parts of the sequence lived up to expectationsк Each oneи with some slight twists of chanceи could have led to markedly different world political realitiesк So whatы эfter allи is that not what counterfactuals are almost guaranteed to deй liver—some discernible change in reality that demonstrates how fragile reality really isы Yes and noк It is not clear that all possible turning points are equally linked to mulй tiple alternative realities that matterк How much did it matter whether the Genoese initially outйmaneuvered the Venetians for control of the юlack Sea in the нпth century дthereby establishing a better position to take advantage of the Mongol Paxе or the Venetians later surpassed the Genoese in control of Mediterranean trade дthereby esй пмк э юlumetti доммпе variation has Japan concentrating on the юritish Empire in a ‘southern’ strategy scenario and a postwar tripolar world in нхрс with Germanyи Japanи and the United States as the leadй ing powersк пнк For alternative scenarios to the яold War that did actually emergeи see эlmond днххуеи Haslam днххуеи and O’яonnell доммпек см | Thompson tablishing a better position to take advantage of the Red Sea route for эsian spicesеы The answer is not that the two Italian cityйstate were entirely interchangeable but it is possible that outcomes would have been similar if they had reversed their order in the sequenceк It is even possible to imagine another Italian city stateи such as Pisaи taking their placeк What was important was that some Italian city states took the initiative to organize EuropeanлMediterranean markets for receiving and demanding эsian goodsк What if the French had not intervened in Italy in нрхры The Ottomans had flirted with the idea of landing troops in Italy a few years earlierк It is conceivable that the European reaction to such a move might have led to something similar to what did transpire in European international relations of the first half of the нтth centuryк Imagй ine if the Thirty Years War had been the Sixty Years Warк How would international relations have changedыпо If atomic bombs had not been dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasakiи do we know that the яold War would have been nastier than it wasы Maybe yesи maybe noк юut no Sung intensive economic growth spurt and possibly no Euroй pean industrializationк No Mongol Pax and possibly continuing яhinese ascendance as the world’s lead economy andи againи less diffusion of яhinese technological gains to a wider worldк э Spanish victory in нсффи a defeat for William III in нтффи a Napoleй onic victory sometime in the early нхth centuryи a lessйthanйWorld War Iи or a German victory in the нхрмs and we should expect rather major consequences for the world politics of each respective eraк These potential turning points matter in part because they did not go down the counterfactual path but might haveк They matter even more because of the path that was pursued at each pointк They matter because they created a politicalйeconomic structure for world politics that has first emergedи then evolved andи so farи enduredк The implications of what did happen дnot what did not happenе are still with us toй dayк эs a consequenceи they are a fundamental part of the history of world politics and accelerations of globalization that deserve greater recognition as a sequence of possible forks in the road that might have turned out differently but instead contribй uted mightily to constructing our past and present realityк If soи the lead economy sequence deserves much greater recognition than it has received to dateк The various fragilities associated with the sequence also remind us that future contingencies are apt to be equally chancyк Humility in projecting our interpretations very far into the пок My hunch is not all that much but I start from the premise that the Thirty Years War’s overall signifiй cance has always been exaggeratedк It was important to central Europe but less so as one moves away from this notйalwaysйsoйcritical subйregionк яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | сн future is well advisedк Moreoverи little seems inevitable about the next iteration in the lead economy sequenceкпп REFERENCES эbuйLughodи Jк Lк нхфхк юefore European Hegemonyц The World Systemи экDк носм–нпсмк New Yorkц Oxford University Pressк эlexanderи юк омммк How Hitler яould Have Won World War IIц The Fatal Errors That Led to Nazi Defeatк New Yorkц Three Rivers Pressк эlmondи Mк нххук нхфх Without Gorbachevц What if яommunism Had Not яollapsedы In Fergusonи Nк дedкеи Virtual Historyц эlternatives and яounterfactuals дppк пхо–рнсек Londonц Picadorк юlackи як оммрк The Japanese Do Not эttack Pearl Harborк In Robertsи эк дedкеи What Might Have юeenц Leading Historians on Twelve ‘What Ifs’ of History дppк нсп–нтсек Londonц Weidenfeld and Nicolsonк юlumettiи Rк оммпк What Ifы эlternative Historical Time Linesк New Yorkц iUniverseк юurleighи Mк нххук Nazi Europeц What if Nazi 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дedsкеи Globalization as Evolutionary Processц Modeling Global яhange дppк пм–суек Londonц Routledgeк de Vriesи Jки and van der Woudeи эк нххук The First Modern Economyц Successи Failure and Perseverance of the Dutch Economyи нсмм–нфнск яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк ппк This observation implies that there will be a next iteration in the sequence and thatи tooи needs to remain openйendedк со | Thompson Downingи Dк оммн [нхух]к The Moscow Optionц эn эlternative Second World Warк Londonц Greenhillк Fieferи Gк оммок No Finland Stationц э Russian Revolution without Leninы In яowley оммоц онм–опск Fergusonи Nк нххуaк Virtual Historyч Towards a ‘яhaotic’ Theory of the Pastк In Fergusonи Nк дedкеи Virtual Historyц эlternatives and яounterfactuals дppк н–хмек Londonц Picadorк Fergusonи Nк нххуbк The Kaiser’s European Unionц What if юritain Had ‘Stood эside’ in эugust нхнры In Fergusonи Nк дedкеи Virtual Historyц эlternatives and яounterfactuals дppк ооф– офмек Londonц Picadorк Findlayи Rки and O’Rourkeи Kк Hк оммук Power and Plentyц Tradeи War and the World Economy in the Second Millenniumк Princetonи NJц Princeton University Pressк Fromkinи Dк омммк Triumph of the Dictatorsк In яowley омммц пмф–пмхк Geoffroyйяhateauи LкйNк нфптк Napoleon et la яonquete du Mondeк Parisц Dellayeк Gernetи Jк нхфок э History of яhinese яivilizationк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Goertzи Gки and Levyи Jк Sк оммук дEdsкек Explaining War and Peaceк New Yorkц Routledgeк Goldstoneи Jк эк оммтк Europe’s Peculiar Pathц Would the World юe ‘Modern’ if William III’s Invasion of England in нтфф Had Failedы In Tetlockи Phк Eки Lebowи Rк Nки and Parkerи Gк дedsкеи Unmaking the Westц ‘WhatйIfsы’ Scenarios That Rewrite World History дppк нтф– нхтек эnn эrborц University of Michigan Pressк Hackerи юк яки and яhamberlainи Gк юк нхфтк Pasts That Might Have юeenи IIц э Revised юibiography of эlternative Historyк In Waughи яhк Gки and Greenburgи Mк Hк дedsкеи эlternative Historiesц Eleven Stories of the World as It Might Have юeen дppк пмн–птпек New Yorkц Garlandк Haegerи Jк Wк нхуск ннот–оуц Political яrisis and the Integrity of яultureк In Haegerи Jк Wк дedкеи яrisis and Prosperity in Sung яhinaк Tucsonи эZц University of эrizona Pressк Hartwellи Rк нхттк Marketsи Technology and the Structure of Enterprise in the Development of the Eleventh яentury яhinese Iron and Steel Industriesк Journal of Economic History отц ох–сфк Haslamи Jк нххук Stalin’s War or Peaceц What if the яold War Had юeen эvoidedы In Fergusonи Nк дedкеи Virtual Historyц эlternatives and яounterfactuals дppк прф–птуек Londonц Picadorк Herwigи Hк Hк оммтк Hitler Wins in the East but Germany Still Loses World War IIк In Tetlockи Phк Eки Lebowи Rк Nки and Parkerи Gк дedsкеи Unmaking the Westц ‘Whatйifsы’ Scenarios That Rewrite World History дppк поп–птмек эnn эrborи MIц University of Michigan Pressк Hobsonи Jк Mк оммрк The Eastern Origins of Western яivilisationк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Horneи эк омммк Ruler of the Worldц Napoleon’s Missed Opportunitiesк In яowley омммц омп– онхк Jacksonи Pк оммск The Mongols and the Westк New Yorkц Pearson Longmanк яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | сп Jonesи Eк Lк нхффк Growth Recurringк Oxfordц яlarendon Pressк Keeganи Jк омммк How Hitler could have Won the Warц The Drive for the Middle Eastи нхрнк In яowley омммц охс–пмск Laneи Fк як нхупк Veniceц The Maritime Republicк юaltimoreи MDц Johns Hopkins University Pressк Largeи Dк як омммк Thanksи юut No яigarк In яowley омммц охм–охнк Lebowи Rк Nк оммм–оммнк яontingencyи яatalysts and International System яhangeк Political Science Quarterly ннсц схн–тнтк Lebowи Rк Nк оммпк э Data Set Named Desireц э Reply to William Rк Thompsonк International Studies Quarterly руц рус–руфк Lebowи Rк Nк омнмк Forbidden Fruitц яounterfactuals and International Relationsк Princetonи NJц Princeton University Pressк Levyи Jк Sк оммфк яounterfactuals and яase Studiesк In юoxйSteffensmeierи Jки юradyи Hки and яollierи Dк дedsкеи Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology дppк тоу–тррек New Yorkц Oxford University Pressк Lewisи эк Rк нхффк Nomads and яrusadersи экDк нммм–нптфк юloomingtonи INц Indiana University Pressк Lorgeи Pк оммск Warи Politics and Society in Modern яhinaи хмм–нухск Londonц Routledgeк Lucasи Jк нххск Operation WOTэNц The Panzer Thrust to яapture Moscowи Octoberй November нхрнк In Mackseyи Kк дedкеи The Hitler Optionsц эlternate Decisions of World War II дppк ср–фнек Londonц Greenhill юooksк Lukacsи Jк оммпк No Pearl Harborы FDR Delays the Warк In яowleyи Rк дedкеи What Ifsы of эmerican Historyц Eminent Historian Imagine What Might Have юeen дppк нух–нффек New Yorkц юerkley юooksк Mackseyи Kк нхфмк Invasionц The German Invasion of Englandк July нхрмк Londonц MacMillan Publishing яoк Mackseyи Kк нххск Operation Sea Lionц Germany Invades юritainи нхрмк In Mackseyи Kк дedкеи The Hitler Optionsц эlternate Decisions of World War II дppк нп–прек Londonц Greenhill юooksк Maddisonи эк нххфк яhinese Economic Performance in the Long Runк Parisц OEяDк Maddisonи эк оммнк The World Economyц э Millennial Perspectiveк Parisц OEяDк Martinи яки and Parkerи Gк нхххк The Spanish эrmadaк Manchesterц University of Manchester Pressк McNeillи Wк Hк нхурк Veniceц The Hinge of Europeи нмфн–нухук яhicagoи ILц University of яhicago Pressк McNeillи Wк Hк нхфок The Pursuit of Powerк яhicagoи ILц University of яhicago Pressк Menziesи Gк оммфк нрпрц The Year э Magnificent яhinese Fleet Sailed to Italy and Ignited the Renaissanceк New Yorkц William Morrowк ср | Thompson Modelskiи Gки and Thompsonи Wк Rк нххтк Leading Sectors and World Powersц The яoevolution of Global Politics and Economicsк яolumbiaи Sяц University of South яarolina Pressк Montefioreи Sк Sк оммрк Stalin Flees Moscow in нхрнк In Robertи эк дedкеи What Might Have юeenц Leading Historians on Twelve ‘What Ifs’ of History дppк нпр–нсоек Londonц Weidenfeld and Nicolsonк Murrayи Wк омммк What a Taxi Driver Wroughtк In яowley омммц пмт–пмук O’яonnellи Rк Lк оммпк The яuban Missile яrisisц Second Holocaustк In яowleyи Rк дedкеи What Ifs of эmerican Historyц Eminent Historians Imagine What Might Have юeen дppк осп–оурек New Yorkц юerkley юooksк Parkerи Gк омммк The Repulse of the English Fireshipsц The Spanish эrmada Triumphsи эugust фи нсффк In яowley омммц нрн–нсрк Parkerи Gки and Tetlockи Phк Eк оммтк яounterfactual Historyц Its эdvocatesи Its яriticsи and Its Usesк In Tetlockи Phк Eки Lebowи Rк Nки and Parkerи Gк дedsкеи Unmaking the Westц ‘Whatй If’ Scenarios That Rewrite World History дppк птп–пхоек эnn эrborи MIц University of Michigan Pressк Pestanaи як Gк оммтк Nineteenth яentury юritish Imperialism Undone with a Single Shell Fragmentц э Response to Jack Goldstone’s ‘Europe’s Peculiar Path’к In Tetlockи Phк Eки Lebowи Rк Nки and Parkerи Gк дedsкеи Unmaking the Westц ‘Whatйifsы’ Scenarios That Rewrite World History дppк нху–омоек эnn эrborи MIц University of Michigan Pressк Petersonи яhк эк нхуск First Sung Reactions to the Mongol Invasion of the Northи нонн–нук In Haegerи Jк Wк дedкеи яrisis and Prosperity in Sung яhina дppк онс–осоек Tucsonи эZц University of эrizona Pressк Pomeranzи Kк оммтк Without яoalы яoloniesы яalculusыц яounterfactuals and Industrialization in Europe and яhinaк In Tetlockи Phк Eки and Parkerи Gк дedsкеи Unmaking the Westц ‘Whatй ifsы’ Scenarios That Rewrite World History дppк орн–оутек эnn эrborи MIц University of Michigan Pressк Robertsи эк нххук Hitler’s Englandц What if Germany Had Invaded юritain in May нхрмы In Fergusonи Nк дedкеи Virtual Historyц эlternatives and яounterfactuals дppк офн–помек Londonц Picadorк Robertsи эк оммок Prime Minister Halifaxк In яowley оммоц оух–охмк Roseи Eк омммк The яase of the Missing яarriersк In яowley омммц прмк Scammellи Gк Vк нхфнк The World Encompassedц The First European Maritime Empiresи caк фмм–нтсмк юerkeleyи яэц University of яalifornia Pressк Schroederи Pк Wк оммрк Embedded яounterfactuals and World War I as an Unavoidable Warк In Wetzelи Dки Jervisи Rки and Levyи Jк Sк дedsкеи Schroederи Pк Wк Systemsи Stability and Statecraftц Essays on the International History of Modern Europe дppк нсф–нхнек New Yorkц Palgraveк Shapiroи Sк нххфк What is эlternate Historyы In Dozoisи Gки and Schmidtи Sк дedsкеи Roads Not Takenц Tales of эlternate History дppк xi–xivек New Yorkц Del Reyк яhapter оц The Lead Economy Sequence in World Politics | сс Somersetи эк оммрк The Spanish эrmada Lands in Englandк In Robertsи эк дedкеи What Might Have юeenц Leading Historians on Twelve ‘What Ifs’ of History дppк нс–отек Londonц Weidenfeld and Nicolsonк Taylorи эк Jк Pк нхуо [нхпо]к If эrchduke Ferdinand Had Not Loved His Wifeк In Squireи Jк як дedкеи If It Had Happened Otherwise дppк пнп–помек Londonц Sidgwick and Jacksonк Tetlockи Phк Eки and юelkinи эк нххтк яounterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politicsц Logicalи Methodological and Psychological Perspectivesк In Tetlockи Phк Eки and юelkinи эк дedsкеи яounterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politicsц Logicalи Methodologicalи and Psychological Perspectives дppк п–пфек Princetonи NJц Princeton University Pressк Tetlockи Phк Eки and Parkerи Gк оммтк яounterfactual Thought Experimentsц Why We яan’t Live Without Them and How We Must Learn to Live With Themк In Tetlockи Phк Eки Lebowи Rк Nки and Parkerи Gк дedsкеи Unmaking the Westц ‘WhatйIfы’ Scenarios That Rewrite World History дppк нр–ррек эnn эrborи MIц University of Michigan Pressк Thompsonи Wк Rк оммпк э Streetcar Named Sarajevoц яatalystsи Multiple яausation яhainsи and Rivalry Structuresк International Studies Quarterly руц рсп–рурк Tracyи Jк Dк нххмк дEdкек The Rise of Merchant Empiresц LongйDistance Trade in Early Modern Worldи нпсм–нусмк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Trevelyanи Gк нхуо [нхпо]к If Napoleon Had Won the юattle of Waterlooк In Squireи Jк як дedкеи If It Had Happened Otherwise дppк охх–пноек Londonц Sidgwick and Jacksonк Tsourasи Pк оммнк дEdкек Rising Sun Victoriousц The эlternate History of How the Japanese Won the Pacific Warк Londonц Greenhillк Tsourasи Pк оммок дEdкек Third Reich Victoriousц эlternate Decisions of World War IIк Londonц Greenhillк Weatherfordи Jк оммрк Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern Worldк New Yorkц Three Rivers Pressк Weberи Sк нххтк яounterfactualsи Past and Futureк In Tetlockи Phк Eки and юelkinи эк дedsкеи яounterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics дppк отф–оффек Princetonи NJц Princeton University Pressк Yatesи Rк Dк Sк оммтк The Song Empireц The World’s First Superpowerк In Tetlockи Phк Eки Lebowи Rк Nки and Parkerи Gк дedsкеи Unmaking the Westц ‘WhatйIfsы’ Scenarios That Rewrite World History дppк омс–ормек эnn эrborи MIц University of Michigan Pressк Zamoyskiи эк оммрк Napoleon Triumphs in Russiaк In Robertsи эк дedкеи What Might Have юeenц Leading Historians on Twelve ‘What Ifs’ of History дppк ух–хнек Londonц Weidenfeld and Nicolsonк ст | Thompson Chapter 3 CONTINUITIES AND TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE EVOLUTION OF WORLD-SYSTEMS Christopher Chase-Dunn This paper discusses continuities and transformations of systemic logic and modes of accumulation in world historical evolutionary perspective and the prospects for systemic transformation in the next several decades. It also considers the meaning of the recent global financial meltdown by comparing it with earlier debt crises and periods of collapse. Has this been just another debt crisis like the ones that have periodically occurred over the past 200 years, or is it part of the end of capitalism and the transformation to a new and different logic of social reproduction? I consider the contemporary network of global countermovements and progressive national regimes that are seeking to transform the capitalist world-system into a more humane, sustainable and egalitarian civilization and how the current crisis is affecting the network of countermovements and regimes, including the Pink Tide populist regimes in Latin America, and the anti-austerity movements. I describe how the New Global Left is similar to, and different from, earlier global counter-movements. The point is to develop a comparative and evolutionary framework that can discern what is really new about the current global situation and that can inform collectively rational responses. яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | сх THE COMPARATIVE EVOLUTIONARY WORLD-SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE T his paper will employ three different time horizons in the discussion of continuй ities and transformationsк нк ок пк смиммм yearsч симмм yearsч смм yearsк Hall and яhaseйDunn доммтч see also яhaseйDunn and Hall нххуее have modified the concepts developed by the scholars of the modern worldйsystem to construct a theoretical perspective for comparing the modern system with earlier regional worldй systemsк The main idea is that sociocultural evolution can only be explained if polities are seen to have been in important interaction with each other since the Paleolithic эgeк Hall and яhaseйDunn propose a general model of the continuing causes of the evolution of technology and hierarchy within polities and in linked systems of polities дworldйsystemsек This is called the iteration model and it is driven by population presй sures interacting with environmental degradation and interpolity conflictк This iteraй tion model depicts basic causal forces that were operating in the Stone эge and that continue to operate in the contemporary global system дsee also яhaseйDunn and Hall нххуц яhapter тч Fletcher et al.и омннек These are the continuitiesк The most important idea that comes out of this theoretical perspective is that transformational changes in institutionsи social structures and developmental logics are brought about mainly by the actions of individuals and organizations within poliй ties that are semiperipheral relative to the other polities in the same systemк This is known as the hypothesis of semiperipheral developmentк эs regional worldйsystems became spatially larger and the polities within them grew and became more internally hierarchicalи interpolity relations also became more hierarchical because new means of extracting resources from distant peoples were inventedк Thus did coreлperiphery hierarchies emergeк Semiperipherality is the posiй tion of some of the polities in a coreлperiphery hierarchyк Some of the polities that are located in semiperipheral positions became the agents that formed larger chiefdomsи states and empires by means of conquest дsemiperipheral marcher politiesеи and some specialized trading states in between the tributary empires promoted production for exchange in the regions in which they operatedк So both the spatial and demographic scale of political organization and the spatial scale of trade networks were expanded тм | яhaseйDunn by semiperipheral politiesи eventually leading to the global system in which we now liveк The modern worldйsystem came into being when a formerly peripheral and then semiperipheral region дEuropeе developed an internal core of capitalist states that were eventually able to dominate the polities of all the other regions of the Earthк This Europeйcentered system was the first one in which capitalism became the predomiй nant mode of accumulationи though semiperipheral capitalist cityйstates had existed since the юronze эge in the spaces between the tributary empiresк The Europeйcenй tered system expanded in a series of waves of colonization and incorporation дSee Figure нек яommodification in Europe expandedи evolved and deepened in waves since the thirteenth centuryи which is why historians disagree about when capitalism became the predominant modeк Since the fifteenth century the modern system has seen four periods of hegemony in which leadership in the development of capitalism was taken to new levelsк The first such period was led by a coalition between Genoese finance capitalists and the Portuguese crown дWallerstein омнн[нхур]ч эrrighiи нххрек эfter that the hegemons have been single nationйstatesц the Dutch in the seventeenth centuryи the юritish in the nineteenth century and the United States in the twentieth century дWallersteinи нхфрaек Europe itselfи and all four of the modern hegemonsи were former semiperipheries that first rose to core status and then to hegemonyк Figure 1 Waves of Colonization and Decolonization Since 1400—Number of colonies established and number of decolonizations (Source: Henige (1970)) яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | тн In between these periods of hegemony were periods of hegemonic rivalry in which several contenders strove for global powerк The core of the modern worldй system has remained multicentricи meaning that a number of sovereign states ally and compete with one anotherк Earlier regional worldйsystems sometimes experienced a period of coreйwide empire in which a single empire became so large that there were no serious contenders for predominanceк This did not happen in the modern worldй system until the United States became the single superйpower following the demise of the Soviet Union in нхфхк The sequence of hegemonies can be understood as the evolution of global govй ernance in the modern systemк The interstate system as institutionalized at the Treaty of Westphalia in нтрр is still a fundamental institutional structure of the polity of the modern systemк The system of theoretically sovereign states was expanded to include the peripheral regions in two large waves of decolonization дsee Figure неи eventually resulting in a situation in which the whole modern system became composed of sovй ereign national statesк East эsia was incorporated into this system in the nineteenth centuryи though aspects of the earlier East эsian tributeйtrade state system were not completely obliterated by that incorporation дHamashitaи оммпек Each of the hegemonies was larger as a proportion of the whole system than the earlier one had beenк эnd each developed the institutions of economic and politicalй military control by which it led the larger system such that capitalism increasingly deepened its penetration of all the areas of the Earthк эnd after the Napoleonic Wars in which юritain finally defeated its main competitorи Franceи global political instituй tions began to emerge over the tops of the international system of national statesк The first protoйworldйgovernment was the яoncert of Europeи a fragile flower that wilted when its main proponentsи юritain and the эustroйHungarian Empireи disagreed about how to handle the world revolution of нфрфк The яoncert was followed by the League of Nations and then by the United Nations and the юretton Woods internaй tional financial institutions дThe World юankи the International Monetary Fund and eventually the World Trade Organizationек The political globalization evident in the trajectory of global governance evolved because the powers that be were in heavy contention with one another for geopolitiй cal power and for economic resourcesи but also because resistance emerged within the polities of the core and in the regions of the nonйcoreк The series of hegemoniesи waves of colonial expansion and decolonization and the emergence of a protoйworldй state occurred as the global elites tried to compete with one another and to contain resistance from belowк We have already mentioned the waves of decolonizationк Othй то | яhaseйDunn er important forces of resistance were slave revoltsи the labor movementи the extenй sion of citizenship to men of no propertyи the women’s movementи and other associй ated rebellions and social movementsк These movements affected the evolution of global governance in part because the rebellions often clustered together in timeи forming what have been called “world revolutions” дэrrighi et al.и нхфхек The Protestant Reformation in Europe was an early instance that played a huge role in the rise of the Dutch hegemonyк The French Revoй lution of нуфх was linked in time with the эmerican and Haitian revoltsк The нфрф rebellion in Europe was both synchronous with the Taiping Rebellion in яhina and was linked with it by the diffusion of ideasи as it was also linked with the emergent яhrisй tian Sects in the United Statesк нхну was the year of the юolsheviks in Russiaи but also the same decade saw the яhinese Nationalist revoltи the Mexican Revolutionи the эrab Revolt and the General Strike in Seattle led by the Industrial Workers of the World in the United Statesк нхтф was a revolt of students in the UкSки Europeи Latin эmerica and Red Guards in яhinaк нхфх was mainly in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europeи but important lessons about the value of civil rights beyond justification for capitalist deй mocracy were learned by an emergent global civil societyк The current world revolution of омxx дяhaseйDunn в Niemeyerи оммхе will be disй cussed as the global countermovement in this paperк The big idea here is that the evolution of capitalism and of global governance is importantly a response to resisй tance and rebellions from belowк This has been true in the past and is likely to conй tinue to be true in the futureк юoswell and яhaseйDunn доммме contend that capitalism and socialism have dialectically interacted with one another in a positive feedback loop similar to a spiralк Labor and socialist movements were obviously a reaction to capitalist industrializationи but also the UкSк hegemony and the postйWorld War II global institutions were importantly spurred on by the World Revolution of нхну and the waves of decolonizationк S TIME HORIZONS o what does the comparative and evolutionary worldйsystems perspective tell us about continuities and transformations of system logicы эnd what can be said about the most recent financial meltdown and the contemporary global counй termovement from the longйrun perspectivesы эre recent developments just another bout of financial expansion and collapse and hegemonic declineы Or do they constiй tute or portend a deep structural crisis in the capitalist mode of accumulationк What яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | тп do recent events signify about the evolution of capitalism and its possible transformaй tion into a different mode of accumulationы F 50,000 YEARS rom the perspective of the last смиммм years the big news is demographic and ecologicalк эfter slowly expandingи with cyclical ups and downs in particular reй gionsи for millennia the human population went into a steep upward surge in the last two centuriesк Humans have been degrading the environment locally and reй gionally since they began the intensive use of natural resourcesк юut in the last омм years of industrial production ecological degradation by means of resource depletion and pollution has become global in scopeи with global warming as the biggest conй sequenceк э demographic transition to an equilibrium population size began in the industrialized core countries in the nineteenth century and has spread unevenly to the nonйcore in the twentieth centuryк Public health measures have lowered the mortality rate and the education and employment of women outside of the home is lowering the fertility rateк юut the total number of humans is likely to keep increasing for several more decadesк In the year оммм there were about six billion humans on Earthк юut the time the population stops climbing it will be фи нм or но billionк This population big bang was made possible by industrialization and the vastly expanded use of nonйrenewable fossil fuelsк Fossil fuels are captured ancient sunlight that took millions of years to accrete as plants and forests grewи died and were comй pressed into oil and coalк The arrival of peak oil production is near and energy prices will almost surely rise again after a long fallк The recent financial meltdown is related to these longйrun changes in the sense that it was brought on partly by sectors of the global elite trying to protect their privileges and wealth by seeking greater control over natural resources and by overйexpanding the financial sectorк юut nonйelites are also implicatedк The housing expansionи suburbanizationи and larger houses with fewй er people in them have been important mechanismsи especially in the United Statesи for incorporating some of the nonйelites into the hegemonic globalization project of corporate capitalismк The culture of consumerism has become strongly ensconced both for those who actually have expanded consumption and as a strong aspiration for those who hope to increase their consumption to the levels of the coreк тр | яhaseйDunn T 5,000 YEARS he main significance of the симммйyear time horizon is to point us to the rise and decline of modes of accumulationк The story here is that smallйscale human polities were integrated primarily by normative structures institutionalized as kinship relations—the soйcalled kinshipйbased modes of accumulationк The family was the economy and the polityи and the family was organized as a moral order of obligaй tions that allowed social labor to be mobilized and coordinatedи and that regulated distributionк Kinйbased accumulation was based on shared languages and meaning systemsи consensusйbuilding through oral communicationи and institutionalized reciй procity in sharing and exchangeк эs kinйbased polities got larger they increasingly fought with one another and polities that developed institutionalized inequalities had selection advantages over those that did notк Kinship itself became hierarchical within chiefdomsи taking the form of ranked lineages or conical clansк Social movements usй ing religious discourses have been important forces of social change for millenniaк Kinйbased societies often responded to population pressures on resources by “hivй ingйoff”—a subgroup would emigrateи usually after formulating grievances in terms of violations of the moral orderк Migrations were mainly responses to local resource stress caused by population growth and competition for resourcesк When new unocй cupied or only lightly occupied but resourceйrich lands were reachable the humans moved onи eventually populating all the continents except эntarcticaк Once the land was filled up a situation of “circumscription” raised the level of conflict within and between politiesи producing a demographic regulator дFletcher et al., омннек In these circumstances technological and organization innovations were stimulated and sucй cessful new strategies were strongly selected by interpolity competitionи leading to the emergence of complexityи hierarchy and new logics of social reproductionк эround five thousand years ago the first early states and cities emerged in Mesoй potamia over the tops of the kinйbased institutionsк This was the beginning of the tribй utary modes of accumulation in which state power дlegitimate coercionе became the main organizer of the economyи the mobilizer of labor and the accumulator of wealth and powerк Similar innovations occurred largely independently in Egyptи the Yellow дHuangйHoе river valleyи the Indus river valleyи and later in Mesoamerica and the эnй desк The tributary modes of production evolved as states and empires became larger and as the techniques of imperialismи allowing the exploitation of distant resourcesи were improvedк This was mainly the work of semiperipheral marcher states дэlvarez et al.и омнне эspects of the tributary modes дtaxationи tributeйgatheringи accumulation by dispossessionе are still with usи but they have been largely subsumed and made subй servient to the logic of capitalist accumulationк яrises and countermovements were яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | тс often involved in the wars and conquests that brought about social change and evoй lution of the tributary modesк э tributary mode became predominant in the Mesopotamian worldйsystem in the early юronze эge дaround пммм юяEек The East эsian regional worldйsystem was still predominantly tributary in the nineteenth century яEк That is nearly a симммйyear runк The kinйbased mode lasted even longerк эll human groups were organized around different versions of the kinйbased modes in the Paleolithicи and indeed since human culture first emerged with languageк If we date the beginning of the end of the kinй based modes at the coming to predominance of the tributary mode in Mesopotamia дпммм юяEе this first qualitative change in the basic logic of social reproduction took more than нммиммм yearsк T 500 YEARS his brings us to the capitalist modeи here defined as based on the accumulation of profits returning to commodity production rather than taxation or tributeк эs we have already saidи early forms of capitalism emerged in the юronze эge in the form of small semiperipheral states that specialized in trade and the production of commoditiesк юut it was not until the fifteenth century that this form of accumulation became predominant in a regional worldйsystem дEurope and its coloniesек яapitalism was born in the semiperiphery but in Europe it moved to the coreи and the forereachй ers that further evolved capitalism were former semiperipheral polities that rose to hegemonyк Economic crises and world revolutions have been important elements in the evolution of capitalism and global governance institutions for centuriesк Thusи in comparison with the earlier modesи capitalism is yet youngк It has been around for millenniaи but it has been predominate in a worldйsystem for less than a millenniumк On the other handи many have observed that social change in general has speeded upк The rise of tributeйtaking based on institutionalized coercion took more than нммиммм yearsк яapitalism itself speeds up social change because it revoluй tionizes technology so quickly that other institutions are brought alongи and people have become adjusted to more rapid reconfigurations of culture and institutionsк So it is plausible that the contradictions of capitalism may lead it to reach its limits much faster than the kinйbased and tributary modes didк тт | яhaseйDunn F TRANSFORMATIONS BETWEEN MODES or Immanuel Wallerstein домнн [нхур]еи capitalism started in the long sixteenth century днрсмйнтрмеи grew larger in a series of cycles and upward trendsи and is now nearing “asymptotes” дceilingsе as some of its trends create problems that it cannot solveк Thusи for Wallerstein the worldйsystem became capitalist and then it expanded until it became completely globalи and now it is coming to face a big criй sis because certain longйterm trends cannot be accommodated within the logic of capitalism дWallersteinи оммпек Wallerstein’s evolutionary transformations come at the beginning and at the endк In there is a focus on expansion and deepening as well as cycles and trendsи but no periodization of worldйsystem evolutionary stages of capiй talism дяhaseйDunn нххфц яhapter пек This is very different from both эrrighi’s depicй tion of successive дand overlappingе systemic cycles of accumulation and from the older Marxist stage theories of national developmentк Wallerstein’s emphasis is on the emergence and demise of “historical systems” with capitalism defined as “ceaseless accumulationк” Some of the actors change positions but the system is basically the same as it gets largerк Its internal contradictions will eventually reach limitsи and these limits are thought to be approaching within the next five decadesк эccording to Wallerstein доммпе the three longйterm upward trends дceiling efй fectsе that capitalism cannot manage areц нк The longйterm rise of real wagesч ок The longйterm costs of material inputsч and пк Rising taxesк эll three upward trends cause the average rate of profit to fallк яapitalists devise strategies for combating these trends дautomationи capital flightи job blackmailи atй tacks on the welfare state and unionsеи but they cannot really stop them in the long runк Deindustrialization in one place leads to industrialization and the emergence of labor movements somewhere else дSilverи оммпек The falling rate of profit means that capitalism as a logic of accumulation will face an irreconcilable structural crisis during the next см yearsи and some other system will emergeк Wallerstein calls the next five decades “The эge of Transitionк” Wallerstein sees recent losses by labor unions and the poor as temporaryк He assumes that workers will eventually figure out how to protect themselves against globalized market forces and the “race to the bottom”к This may underestimate someй what the di culties of mobilizing effective labor organization in the era of globalized яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | ту capitalismи but he is probably right in the long runк Global unions and political parties could give workers effective instruments for protecting their wages and working conй ditions from exploitation by global corporations if the NorthлSouth issues that divide workers could be overcomeк Wallerstein is intentionally vague about the organizational nature new system that will replace capitalism дas was Marxе except that he is certain that it will no longer be capitalismк He sees the declining hegemony of the United States and the crisis of neoliberal global capitalism as strong signs that capitalism can no longer adjust to its systemic contradictionsк He contends that world history has now entered a period of chaotic and unpredictable historical transformationк Out of this period of chaos a new and qualitatively different nonйcapitalist system will emergeк It might be an auй thoritarian дtributaryе global state that preserves the privileges of the global elite or it could be an egalitarian system in which nonйprofit institutions serve communities дWallersteinи нххфек STAGES OF WORLD CAPITALIST DEVELOPMENT: SYSTEMIC CYCLES OF ACCUMULATION G iovanni эrrighi’s днххре evolutionary account of “systemic cycles of accumulaй tion” has solved some of the problems of Wallerstein’s notion that world capiй talism started in the long sixteenth century and then went through repetitive cycles and trendsк эrrighi’s account is explicitly evolutionaryи but rather than positing “stages of capitalism” and looking for each country to go through them дas most of the older Marxists didеи he posits somewhat overlapping global cycles of accumulaй tion in which finance capital and state power take on new forms and increasingly penй etrate the whole systemк This was a big improvement over both Wallerstein’s world cycles and trends and the traditional Marxist national stages of capitalism approachк эrrighi’s днххри оммте “systemic cycles of accumulation” are more different from one another than are Wallerstein’s cycles of expansion and contraction and upward secular trendsк эnd эrrighi доммте has made more out of the differences between the current period of UкSк hegemonic decline and the decades at the end of the nineй teenth century and the early twentieth century when юritish hegemony was decliningк The emphasis is less on the beginning and the end of the capitalist worldйsystem and more on the evolution of new institutional forms of accumulation and the increasing incorporation of modes of control into the logic of capitalismк эrrighi доммтеи taking a cue from эndre Gunder Frank днххфеи saw the rise of яhina as portending a new sysй temic cycle of accumulation in which “market society” will eventually come to replace тф | яhaseйDunn rapacious finance capital as the leading institutional form in the next phase of world historyк эrrighi does not discuss the end of capitalism and the emergence of another basic logic of social reproduction and accumulationк His analysis is more in line with the “types of capitalism” and “multiple modernities” literature except that he is analyzй ing the whole system rather than separate national societiesк эrrighi sees the development of market society in яhina as a consequence of the differences between the East эsian and Europeйcentered systems before their merger in the нхth centuryи and as an outcome of the яhinese Revolutionк His discussion of эdam Smith’s notions of societal control over finance capital is interestingи but he is vague as what the forces that can counterйbalance the power of finance capitalк In яhina it is obviously the яommunist Party and the new class of technocratic mandaй rinsк This is somewhat similar in form to Peter Evans’s discussion of the importance of technocrats in юrazilianи Japanese and Korean national developmentи though эrrighi does not say soк эrrighi also provides a more explicit analysis of how the current world situation is similar to and different from the period of declining юritish hegemonic power before World War I дsee summary in яhaseйDunn в Lawrenceи омннц нруйнснек Wallerstein’s version is more apocalyptic and more millenarianк The old world is endingк The new world is beginningк In the coming systemic bifurcation what people do may be prefigurative and causal of the world to comeк Wallerstein agrees with the analysis proposed by the students of the New Left in нхтф дand large numbers of acй tivists in the current global justice movementе that the tactic of taking state power has been shown to be futile because of the disappointing outcomes of the World Revoluй tion of нхну and the decolonization movements дbut see belowек R ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION egarding the issue of whether or not the recent meltdown is itself a structural crisis or the beginning of a long process of transformationи it is relevant to exй amine recent trends in economic globalizationк Is there yet any sign that the world economy has entered a new period of deglobalization of the kind that occurred in the first half of the twentieth centuryы Immanuel Wallerstein contends that globalization has been occurring for five hundred yearsи and so there is little that is importantly new about the soйcalled stage of global capitalism that is alleged to have emerged in the last decades of the twenй яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | тх tieth centuryк Well before the emergence of globalization in the popular consciousй nessи the worldйsystems perspective focused on the world economy and the system of interacting politiesи rather than on single national societiesк Globalizationи in the sense of the expansion and intensification of larger and larger economicи politicalи military and information networksи has been increasing for millenniaи albeit unevenly and in wavesк эnd globalization is as much a cycle as a trend дsee Figure оек The wave of global integration that has swept the world in the decades since World War II is best understood by studying its similarities and differences with the waves of international trade and foreign investment expansion that have occurred in earlier centuriesи espeй cially the last half of the nineteenth centuryк Wallerstein has insisted that UкSк hegemony is continuing to declineк He interpretй ed the UкSк unilateralism of the юush administration as a repetition of the mistakes of earlier declining hegemons that attempted to substitute military superiority for ecoй nomic comparative advantage дWallersteinи оммпек Most of those who denied the noй tion of UкSк hegemonic decline during what Giovanni эrrighi днххре called the “belle epoch” of financialization have now come around to Wallerstein’s position in the wake of the current global financial crisisк Wallerstein contends that once the worldйsystem Figure 2 Trade Globalization 1820–2009: World Imports as a Percentage of World GDP (Sources: Chase-Dunn et al. (2000); World Bank (2011)). ум | яhaseйDunn cycles and trendsи and the game of musical chairs that is capitalist uneven developй mentи are taken into accountи the “new stage of global capitalism” does not seem that different from earlier periodsк Figure о is an updated version of the trade globalization series published in яhaseйDunn et al.и домммек It shows the great nineteenth century wave of global trade integrationи a short and volatile wave between нхмм and нхохи and the postйнхрс upswing that is characterized as the “stage of global capitalismк” The figure indicates that globalization is both a cycle and a bumpy trendк There have been significant periй ods of deglobalization in the late nineteenth century and in the first half of the twenй tieth centuryк Note the steep decline in the level of global trade integration in оммхк The longйterm upward trend has been bumpyи with occasional downturns such as the one shown in the нхумsк юut the downturns since нхрс have all been followed by upturns that restored the overall upward trend of trade globalizationк The large decrease of trade globalization in the wake of the global financial meltdown of оммф represents a онб decrease from the previous yearи the largest reversal in trade globalй ization since World War IIк The question is whether or not this sharp decrease repreй sents a reversal in the long upward trend observed over the past half centuryк Is this the beginning of another period of deglobalizationы The Financial Meltdown of 2007-2008 The recent financial crisis has generated a huge scholarly literature and immense popй ular reflection about its causes and its meaning for the past and for the future of world societyк This contribution is intended to place the current crisisи and the conй temporary network of transnational social movements and progressive national reй gimesи in world historical and evolutionary perspectiveк The main point is to accurately determine the similarities and differences between the current crisis and responses with earlier periods of dislocation and breakdown in the modern worldйsystem and in earlier worldйsystemsк This analysis is reported in яhaseйDunn and Kwon домннек The conclusions are that financial crises are business as usual for the capitalist worldйeconomyк The theories of a “new economy” and “network society” were mainly justifications for financializationк The big difference is the size of the bubble and the greater dependence of the rest of the world on the huge UкSк economy and the UкSк dollar sectorк The somewhat sucй cessful reinflating of the global financial bubble by the government funded bailйout of Wall Street has not resolved the basic structural problemsи but it has avoided дso farе a яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | ун true collapseи deflationи and a wiping out of the bloated mass of paper securities that constitute the financial bubbleк This is not a stable situationи but neither is it the end of capitalismк The World Revolution of 20xx The contemporary world revolution is similar to earlier onesи but also differentк Our conceptualization of the New Global Left includes civil society entitiesц individualsи soй cial movement organizationsи nonйgovernmental organizations дNGOsеи but also poй litical parties and progressive national regimesк In this chapter we will focus mainly on the relationships among the movements and the progressive populist regimes that have emerged in Latin эmerica in the last decade and on the эrab Spring that beй gan in Tunisia in December of омнмк We understand the Latin эmerican “Pink Tide” regimes to be an important part of the New Global Leftи though it is wellйknown that the relationships among the movements and the regimes are both supportive and contentiousк The boundaries of the progressive forces that have come together in the New Global Left are fuzzy and the process of inclusion and exclusion is ongoing дSantosи оммтек The rules of inclusion and exclusion that are contained in the яharter of the World Social Forumи though still debatedи have not changed much since their formuй lation in оммнкн The New Global Left has emerged as resistance toи and a critique ofи global capiй talism дLindholm and Zuqueteи омнмек It is a coalition of social movements that inй cludes recent incarnations of the old social movements that emerged in the nineй teenth century дlaborи anarchismи socialismи communismи feminismи environmentalismи peaceи human rightsе and movements that emerged in the world revolutions of нхтф and нхфх дqueer rightsи antiйcorporateи fair tradeи indigenousе and even more recent movements such as the slow foodлfood rightsи global justiceлalterйglobalizationи antiй globalizationи healthйHIV and alternative media дReese et al.и оммфек The explicit focus on the Global South and global justice is somewhat similar to some earlier instances of the Global Leftи especially the яommunist Internationalи the юandung яonference and the anticolonial movementsк The New Global Left contains remnants and reconй figured elements of earlier Global Leftsи but it is a qualitatively different constellation of forces becauseц нк The Transnational Social Movement Research Working Group at the University of яaliforniaйRiverside has studied the movements participating in the World Social Forum since оммск The project web page is at httpцллwwwкirowsкucrкeduлresearchлtsmstudyкhtmк уо | яhaseйDunn нк There are new elementsч ок The old movements have been reshapedи andч пк э new technology дthe Internetе is being used to mobilize protests in real time and to try to resolve NorthлSouth issues within movements and contradictions among movementsк There has also been a learning process in which the earlier successes and failures of the Global Left are being taken into account in order to not repeat the mistakes of the pastк Many social movements have reacted to the neoliberal globalization project by going transnational to meet the challenges that are obviously not local or national дReitanи оммуек юut some movementsи especially those composing the эrab Springи are focused mainly on regime change at homeк The relations within the family of anй tisystemic movements and among the Latin эmerican Pink Tide populist regimes are both cooperative and competitiveк The issues that divide potential allies need to be brought out into the open and analyzed in order that cooperative efforts may be enй hanced and progressive global collective action may become more effectiveк The Pink Tide The World Social Forum дWSFе is not the only political force that demonstrates the rise of the New Global Leftк The WSF is embedded within a larger socioйhistorical context that is challenging the hegemony of global capitalк It was this larger context that faй cilitated the founding of the WSF in оммнк The antiйIMF protests of the нхфмs and the Zapatista rebellion of нххр were early harbingers of the current world revolution that challenged the neoliberal capitalist orderк эnd the World Social Forum was founded explicitly as a counterйhegemonic project visйàйvis the World Economic Forum дan anй nual gathering of global elites founded in нхунек World history has proceeded in a series of wavesк яapitalist expansions have ebbed and flowedи and egalitarian and humanistic countermovements have emerged in a cyclical dialectical struggleк Polanyi днхрре called this the doubleйmovementи while others have termed it a “spiral of capitalism and socialismк” This spiral of capitalism and socialism describes the undulations of the global economy that have alternated between expansive commodification throughout the global economyи followed by reй sistance movements on behalf of workers and other oppressed groups дюoswell в яhaseйDunnи омммек The ReaganлThatcher neoliberal capitalist globalization project extended the power of transnational capitalк This project has reached its ideologiй cal and material limitsк It has increased inequality within some countriesи exacerbated яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | уп rapid urbanization in the Global South дsoйcalled Planet of Slums [Davisи оммт]еи atй tacked the welfare state and institutional protections for the poorи and led to global financial crisisк э global network of countermovements has arisen to challenge neoliberalismи neoconservatism and corporate capitalism in generalк This progressive network is composed of increasingly transnational social movements as well as a growing numй ber of populist government in Latin эmerica—the soйcalled Pink Tideк The Pink Tide is composed of populist leftist regimes that have come to state power in Latin эmerй icaи some of which advocate dramatic structural transformation of the global political economy and world civilizationк эn important difference between these and many earlier Leftist regimes in the nonйcore is that they have come to head up governments by means of popular elecй tions rather than by violent revolutionsк This signifies an important difference from earlier world revolutionsк The spread of electoral democracy to the nonйcore has been part of a larger political incorporation of former colonies into the European interstate systemк This evolutionary development of the global political system has mainly been caused by the industrialization of the nonйcore and the growing size of the urban working class in nonйcore countries дSilverи оммпек While much of the “democratizaй tion” of the Global South has consisted mainly of the emergence of “polyarchy” in which elites manipulate elections in order to stay in control of the state дRobinsonи нххтеи in some countries the Pink Tide Leftist regimes have been voted into powerк This is a very different form of regime formation than the road taken by earlier Leftй ist regimes in the nonйcoreк With a few exceptions earlier Left regimes came to state power by means of civil war or military coupк The ideologies of the Latin эmerican Pink Tide regimes have been both socialist and indigenistи with different mixes in different countriesк The acknowledged leader of the Pink Tide as a distinctive brand of leftist populism is the юolivarian Revolution led by Venezuelan President Hugo яhavezк юut various other forms of progressive politiй cal ideologies are also heading up states in Latin эmericaк Indigenist and socialist Evo Morales is president of юoliviaк The Fidelistas in яuba remain in powerк The юrazilian Workers’ Party is still an important playerи though its elected presidents have been pragmatic politicians rather than revolutionary leadersк In яhile social democrats are in powerк Sandinistas in Nicaragua and the FMLN in El Salvador have elected national leadersк эrgentina bravely and unilaterally restructured its own debt obligations in оммск The President of Peru is a leftistк эnd several Europeanйstyle social democrats lead some of the яaribbean islandsк ур | яhaseйDunn Most of these regimes are supported by the mobilization of historically subordiй nate populations including the indigenousи poorи and womenк The rise of the voiceless and the challenge to neoliberal capitalism seemed to have its epicenter in Latin эmerй ica before the emergence of the эrab Springк While there are important differences of emphasis among these Latin эmerican regimesи they have much in commonи and as a whole they constitute an important bloc of the New Global Leftк We agree with William Iк Robinson’s доммфе assessment of the юolivarian Revolution and its potential to lead the global working class in a renewed challenge to transnational capitalismк The rise of the left has engulfed nearly all of South эmerica and a considerable portion of яentral эmerica and the яaribbeanк Why has Latin эmerica been the site of both populist Leftist regimes and most of the transnational social movements that contest neoliberal capitalist globalization up until recentlyы We suggest that part of the explanation is that Latin эmerica as a world region has so many semiperipheral countriesк These countries have more options to pursue independent strategies than the mainly peripheral countries of эfrica doк юut some of the Pink Tide countries in Latin эmerica are also peripheralк There has been a regional effect that did not seem to be operating in either эfrica or эsiaк The Pink Tide phenomenon and the antiйneoй liberal social movements may have been concentrated in Latin эmerica because the foremost proponent of the neoliberal policies has been the United Statesк Latin эmerй ica has long been the neocolonial “backyard” of the United Statesк Most of the people of Latin эmerica think of the United States as the “colossus of the Northк” The UкSк has been the titular hegemon during the period of the capitalist globalization projectи and so the political challenge to neoliberalism has been strongest in that region of the worldк юoth эfrica and эsia have a more complicated relationship with former colonial powers and with the UкSк hegemonyк President Hugo яhavez of Venezuela is perhaps the most vocal advocate of an alternative to global capitalismи and his advocacy is greatly aided by the massive Venй ezuelan oil reservesк The юanco del Sur дюank of the Southе that яhavez has foundedи for exampleи has been joined by many Pink Tide nations and seeks to replace the Inй ternational Monetary Fund and the World юank in sponsoring development projects throughout the эmericasк The goal is to become independent of the capitalist finanй cial institutions headquartered in the Global Northк The early Structural эdjustment Programs imposed by the International Monetary Fund in Latin эmerica in the нхфмs were instances of “shock therapy” that emboldй ened domestic neoliberals to attack the “welfare stateи” unions and workers partiesк In many countries these attacks resulted in downsizing and streamlining of urban inй яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | ус dustriesи and workers in the formal sector lost their jobs and were forced into the informal economyи swelling the “planet of slums” дDavisи оммтек This is the formation of a globalized working class as described by юill Robinson доммфек In several countries the swollen urban informal sector was mobilized by political leaders into new popuй list movements and partiesи and in some of theseи the movements were eventually successful in electing their leaders to national powerи creating the Pink Tide regimesк Thus did neoliberal Structural эdjustment Programs provoke counterйmovements that eventuated in the Pink Tide regimesк The very existence of the World Social Forum owes much to the Pink Tide reй gime in юrazilк The юrazilian transition from authoritarian rule in the нхфмs politicized and mobilized civil societyи contributing to the elections of leftist presidentsк One of these was Fernando Henrique яardosoи a famous юrazilian sociologist who was one of the founders of dependency theoryк The юrazilian city of Porto эlegreи where the first World Social Forum meetings were heldи had been a stronghold for the юrazilian Workers’ Partyк The World Social Forum was born in Porto эlegre with indispensable help from the юrazilian Workers’ Party and its former leader who had been elected President of юrazilи Luis Inàcio da Silvaк The political trend of the Pink Tide was an imй portant element in context and conditions that allowed for the rise of the World Social Forumк The relations between the progressive transnational social movements and the reй gimes of the Pink Tide have been both collaborative and contentiousк We have already noted the important role played by the юrazilian Workers’ Party in the creation of the World Social Forumк юut many of the activists in the movements see involvement in struggles to gain and maintain power in existing states as a trap that is likely to simply reproduce the injustices of the pastк These kinds of concerns have been raised by anй archists since the nineteenth centuryи but autonomists from Italyи Spainи Germany and France now echo these concernsк эnd the Zapatista movement in Southern Mexicoи one of the sparks that ignited the global justice movement against neoliberal capitalй ismи has steadfastly refused to participate in Mexican electoral politicsк Indeed the New Left led by students in the World Revolution of нхтф championed a similar critiй cal approach to the old parties and states of the Left as well as involvement in elecй toral politicsк эs mentioned aboveи Immanuel Wallerstein днхфрbи оммпе agrees with this antistatist political stanceк This antipoliticsйasйusual has become embodied in the яharter of the World Social Forumи where representatives of parties and governments are theoretically proscribed from sending representatives to the WSF meetingsко ок The charter of the World Social Forum does not permit participation by those who attend as repй resentatives of organizations that are engaged inи or that advocateи armed struggleк Nor are governй ут | яhaseйDunn The older Leftist organizations and movements are often depicted as hopelessly Eurocentric and undemocratic by the neoйanarchists and autonomistsи who instead prefer participatory and horizontalist network forms of democracy and eschew leadй ership by prominent intellectuals as well as by existing heads of stateк Thus when Lulaи яhavez and Morales have tried to participate in the WSFи crowds have gathered to protest their presenceк The organizers of the WSF have found various compromisesи such as locating the speeches of Pink Tide politicians at adjacentи but separateи venй uesк эn exception to this kind of contention is the support that European autonomists and anarchists have provided to Evo Morales’s regime in юolivia дeкgки López в Iglesias Turriónи оммтек Latin эmerica has been the epicenter of the contemporary world revolutionк If the movements and the progressive regimes could work together this would be an enerй gizing model for the other regions of the globeк The challenges are daunting but the majority of humankind needs organizational instruments with which to democratize global governance and the World Social Forum has been designed to be the venue from which such instruments could be organizedк The Meltdown and the Countermovements What have been the effects of the global financial meltdown on the counterйmoveй ments and the progressive national regimesы The World Social Forum slogan that “эnother World Is Possible” seems far more appealing now than when the capitalist globalization project was boomingк яritical discourse has been taken more seriously by a broader audienceк Marxist geographerи David Harveyи has been interviewed on the ююяк The millenarian discourses of the Pink Tide regimes and the radical social movements seem to be at least partly confirmedк The “end of history” triumphalism and theories of the “new economy” seem to have been swept into the dustbinк The worldйsystems perspective has found greater supportи at least among earlier critics such as the more traditional Marxistsк The insistence of Wallersteinи эrrighiи and others that UкSк hegemony is in longйterm decline has now found wide acceptanceк On a more practical levelи most of the social movement organizations and NGOs have had more di culty raising moneyи but this has been counterbalanced by inй creased participation дэllison et al.и омннек The environmental movement has received some setbacks because the issue of high unemployment has come to the foreк The яopenhagen summit was largely understood to have been a failureк The wide realй mentsи confessional institutions or political parties supposed to send representatives to the WSFк See World Social Forum яharter httpцллwsfоммукorgлprocessлwsfйcharterл яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | уу ization that energy costs are going to go further up has increased the numbers who support the further development of nuclear energyи despite its longйrun environmenй tal costsк юut the Japanese earthquake and nuclear meltdown has led to the declaraй tion of a nonйnuclear future by the German governmentк эnd the radical alternative of indigenous environmentalism has gotten a boost дWallersteinи омнмек The World People’s яonference on яlimate яhange and the Rights of Mother Earthи held in яoй chabambaи юolivia in эpril of омнми discussed a Universal Declaration of the Rights of Mother Earthи a World People’s Referendum on яlimate яhangeи and the establishй ment of a яlimate Justice Tribunalк The meeting was attended by пмиммм activists from more than нмм countriesи and was financially supported by the governments of юolivia and Venezuelaк The Arab Spring The movements that have swept the эrab world since December of омнм are also part of the world revolution of омxx and they may play a role in the New Global Leftк эs in earlier world revolutionsи contagion and new technologies of communication have been important elementsк эnd as in earlier world revolutionsи rather different moveй ments stimulated by different local conditions converge in time to challenge the powй ers that beк The эrab Spring movements have been rather different from the global justice movementsк Their targets have mainly been authoritarian national regimes rather than global capitalismк Youthful demonstrators have used Facebook to orgaй nize mainly peaceful protests that have succeeded in causing several old entrenched regimes to step downк The countries in which these movements have succeeded are not the poorest countries in эfrica and the Middle Eastк Rather they have been semiй peripheral countries in which a large mobilizable group of young people have access to social mediaк In many cases the old autocrats had been trying to implement austerй ity programs in order to be able to borrow more money from abroad and this set the stage for the mass movementsк юut the эrab Spring movements have not explicitly raised the issues of austerity and global financial dependencyкп The issues raised by the эrab Spring movements have mainly been about national democracyи not global justiceк юut the example of masses of young people rallying against unpopular regimes now seems to be spreading to the secondйtier core states of Europeк юoth Spain and Greece have seen large antiйausterity demonstrations that have been inspired by the successes of the эrab Springк эnd in these cases the conй nection with the global financial crisis is even more palpableк The austerity programs пк The NэTO intervention in Libya mainly illustrates the illegitimacy of both Khadafy and of the nascent global state that is seeking to depose himк уф | яhaseйDunn are the conditions imposed by global finance capital for reinflating the accumulation structures of these countries of the European secondйtier coreк The popular antiйausй terity rebellions might provoke an even deeper financial collapse if investors and their institutional agents lose faith in the ability of the system to reproduce the existing structures of accumulationк эnd antiйausterity movements have also spread to the core statesи where severe fiscal crises have led to the dismantling of public servicesк S CONCLUSIONS o do recent developments constitute the beginning of the terminal crisis of capitalism or another systemic cycle of accumulationк эs mentioned aboveи preй dominant capitalism has not been around very long from the point of view of the succession of qualitatively different logics of social reproductionк юut capitalism itself has speeded up social change and its contradictions do seem to be reaching levels that cannot be fixedк Declarations of imminent transformation may be useful for mobilizing social movementsи but the real problem is the clearly specify what is really wrong with capitalism and how these deficiencies can be fixedк Whether or not we are in the midst of a qualitative transformation this task will need to be accomplishedк Regarding a new systemic cycle of accumulationи эrrighi’s bet on the significance of the rise of яhina also needs clarificationк эs he has saidи other countries have not experienced the trajectory that produced “market society” in яhinaи so how can forces emerge elsewhere that can counterйbalance the power of national and global finance capitalк эnd what kind of forces could do thisы The rise of the antiйausterity movements in Spain and Greece and the Occupy Wall Street movement in the UкSк may portend the emergence of strong and effective antiй capitalist social movements in the coreк The Occupy and antiйausterity movements interestingly borrowed tactics from the эrab Springи including the use of Facebook for organizing revolt and camping in central public spacesк The Occupy movement may improve President Obama’s chances of reйelection and might also inspire his adminй istration to more energetically push for reйindustrialization of the UкSк This could slow or even reverse the UкSк economic declineк юut the movements and the regime would have to overcome the stillйstrong legacy of ReaganismйThatcherismи the political musй cle of Wall Street and the Tea Party rightйwing populists who call the юlack President a Muslim and a socialistк яontinued political stalemate in the UкSк is the most likely outй comeи and this will result in the continued slow decline of UкSк hegemonyк This is not surprising from the point of view of worldйsystemic cycles of hegemonic rise and fallк яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | ух юut things seem more interesting in the semiperiphery and the Global Southк So far the UкSк has not used much muscle in opposition to the rise of the Pink Tide in Latin эmericaк Expensive UкSк military involvements in the Middle East and яentral эsia have continuedи and these may partly explain the relative inaction in Latin эmerй icaк яan the progressive transnational social movements and the left populist regimes of the Pink Tide forge a coalition that can move toward greater global democracyы яould the emergent democratic regimes in the эrab world and protests against the austerity imposed by finance capital in the European secondйtier core lead to a situaй tion in which a strong force for global social democracy would challenge the powers that beы эs in earlier world revolutions the institutions of global governance are likely to be reshaped by forces from belowк Hopefully a more democratic and collectively rational global commonwealth can emerge without the violence and totalitarianism that was so prevalent in the first half of the twentieth centuryк ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Thanks to Roy Kwon and Kirk Lawrence for help with this paperк REFERENCES эllisonи Juliannи Ian юreckenridgeйJacksonи Katja Mк Guentherи эli Lairyи Elizabeth Schwarzи Hellen Reeseи Miryam Eк Ruvalcaba and Michael Walker омнн “Is the economic crisis a crisis 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of яaliforniaй Riversideи оммфйоммх яolloquium Series Tuesdayи January нп Evansи Peter юк нхух Dependent Developmentц the alliance of multinationalи state and local capital in юrazilк Princeton Unviersity Pressк Fletcherи Jesse юч эpkarianи Jacobч Hannemanи Robert эч Inoueи Hirokoч Lawrenceи Kirkч яhaseйDunnи яhristopherк омнн”Demographic Regulators in SmallйScale WorldйSystems” Structure and Dynamics си нFrankи эndre Gunder нххф Reorientцц Global Economy in the эsian эgeк юerkeleyц University of яalifornia Press Goldfrankи Walter Lк нххх “юeyond hegemony” in Volker юornschier and яhristopher яhaseй Dunn дedsке The Future of Global яonflictк Londonц Sageк Goldstoneи Jack эк нххн Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern Worldк юerkeleyц University of яalifornia Pressк Gramsciи эntonio нхун Selections for the Prison Notebooksк New Yorkц International Publishers Grinenи Leonid and эndrey Kortayev омнм “Will the global crisis lead to global transformationsыц the global financial system—pros and cons” Journal of Globalization Studies нинцумйфх дMayек Hallи Thomas Dк and яhristopher яhaseйDunn оммт “Global social change in the long run” Ppк ппйсф in як яhaseйDunn and Sк юabones дedsке Global Social яhangeц Historical and яomparative Perspectivesк юaltimoreц Johns Hopkins University Press Hamashitaи Takeshi оммп “Tribute and treatiesц maritime эsia and treaty port netowrks in the era of negotiationsи нфммйнхмм” Ppк нуйсм in Giovanni эrrighiи Takeshi Hamashita and Mark Selden дedsке The Resurgence of East эsiaк Londonц Routledge Harveyи David нхфо The Limits to яapitalк яambridgeи Mэц юlackwell Harveyи David омнм The Enigma of яapitalк фо | яhaseйDunn Harveyи David омнм “The crisis of capitalism” httpцллdavidharveyкorgломнмлмслvideoйtheй crisesйofйcapitalismйatйtheйrsaл Henigeи David Pк нхум яolonial Governors from the Fifteenth яentury to the Presentк Madisonи WIкц University of Wisconsin Pressк Henwoodи Doug нхху Wall Street ц how it works and for whom Londonц Verso Hilferdingи Rudolf нхфн Finance яapitalц э Study Of The Latest Phase Of яapitalist Developmentк London ц Routledge в Kegan Paulк Hobsbawmи Eric нххр The эge of Extremesц э History of the Worldи нхнрйнххнк New Yorkц Pantheonк Kleinи Naomiк омму The Shock Doctrineц The Rise of Disaster яapitalismк New Yorkц Henry Holt and яompanyк Korzeniewiczи Roberto Pк and Timothy Patrick Moranк омммк “Measuring World Income Inequalitiesк” эmerican Journal of Sociology нмтднец омхйоонк Korzeniewiczи Roberto Pк and Timothy Patrick Moranк оммхк Unveiling Inequalityц э World Historical Perspectiveк New Yorkи NYц Russell Sage Foundationк Krippnerи Greta Rк омнм “ The political economy of financial exuberanceи” Ppкнрнйнуп in Michael Lounsbury дedке Markets on Trialц The Economic Sociology of the UкSк Financial яrisisц Part ю дResearch in the Sociology of Organizationsи Volume пме юingleyи UKц Emerald Group Publishing Limited Kueckerи Glen омму “The perfect storm” International Journal of Environmentalи яultural and Social Sustainability п Lawrenceи Kirkк оммх “Toward a democratic and collectively rational global commonwealthц semiperipheral transformation in a postйpeak worldйsystem” in Phoebe Moore and L Owen Worthи Globalization and the Semiperipheryц New Yorkц Palgrave MacMillanк Lindholmи яharles and Jose Pedro Zuquete омнм The Struggle for the Worldц Liberation Movements for the онst яenturyк Palo эltoи яэц Stanford University Pressк Lópezи Jesús Espasandín and Pablo Iglesias Turrión дedsке оммт юolivia en movimientoк эcción colectiva y poder político httpцллwwwкnodoсмкorgлboliviaenmovimientoл Mannи Michael нхфт The Sources of Social Powerи Volume нк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Mannи Michael оммт “The Recent Intensification of эmerican Economic and Military Imperialismц эre They яonnectedы Presented at the annual meeting of the эmerican Sociological эssociationи Montrealи эugust ннк Martinи William Gк et al. оммф Making Wavesц Worldwide Social Movementsи нусмйоммск юoulderи яOц Paradigm Mitchellи юrian Rк нххок International Historical Statisticsц Europe нусмйнхффк пrd editionк New Yorkц Stocktonк Mitchellи юrian Rк нххпк International Historical Statisticsц The эmericas нусмйнхффк оnd editionк New Yorkц Stocktonк яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | фп Mitchellи юrian Rк нххск International Historical Statisticsц эfricaи эsiaи and Oceania нусмйнхффк оnd editionк New Yorkц Stocktonк Modelskiи George and William Rк Thompsonк нххтк Leading Sectors and World Powersц The яoevolution of Global Politics and Economicsк яolumbiaи Sяц University of South яarolina Pressк Monbiotи George оммп Manifesto for a New World Orderк New Yorkц New Press Patomakiи Heikki оммф The Political Economy of Global Securityк New Yorkц Routledgeк Pfisterи Ulrich and яhristian Suter нхфуц “International financial relations as part of the world systemк” International Studies Quarterlyи пндпеи опйуок Polanyiи Karl нхрр The great transformationк New Yorkц Farrar в Rinehart Podobnikи юruce оммт Global Energy Shiftsк Philadelphiaи Pэц Temple University Pressк Reeseи Ellenи яhristopher яhaseйDunnи Kadambari эnantramи Gary яoyneи Matheu Kaneshiroи эshley Nк Kodaи Roy Kwonи and Preeta Saxenaк оммфк “Research Noteц Surveys of World Social Forum Participants Show Influence of Place and юase in the Global Public Sphereк” Mobilizationц эn International Journal нпдрец рпнйррск Revised version in э Handbook of the World Social Forums Editorsц Jackie Smithи Scott юyrdи Ellen Reeseand Elizabeth Smytheк Paradigm Publishers Reiferи Thomas Eк оммхйнм “Lawyersи Guns and Moneyц Wall Street Lawyersи Investment юankers and Global Financial яrisesи Late нхth to Early онst яentury” Nexusц яhapman’s Journal of Law в Policyи нсц ннхйнпп Reinhartи яarmen Mк and Kenneth Sк Rogoff оммф “This time is differentц a panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises” NюER Working Paper нпффо httpцллwwwкnberкorgл papersлwнпффо Reitanи Ruth омму Global эctivismк Londonц Routledgeк Robinsonи William I нххт Promoting Polyarchyц Globalizationи US Intervention and Hegemonyк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Robinsonи William I оммфк Latin эmerica and Globalizationк юaltimoreц Johns Hopkins Unversity Press Robinsonи William I омнм “The crisis of global capitalismц cyclicalи structural or systemicы” Ppк офхйпнм in Martijn Konings дedке The Great яredit яrashк LondonцVersoк Santosи юoaventura de Sousa оммт The Rise of the Global Leftк Londonц Zed Pressк Senи Jaiи and Peter Waterman дedsке World Social Forumц яhallenging Empiresк Montrealц юlack Rose юooks Smithи Jackie Marina Karidesи Marc юeckerи Dorval юrunelleи яhristopher яhaseйDunnи Donatella della Portaи Rosalba Icaza Garzaи Jeffrey Sк Jurisи Lorenzo Moscaи Ellen Reeseи Peter Jay Smith and Rolando Vazquez омму Global Democracy and the World Social Forumsк юoulderи яOц Paradigm Publishers Silverи юeverly Jк оммп Forces of Laborц Workers Movements and Globalization Since нфумк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк фр | яhaseйDunn Suterи яhristian нхфу “Long waves in coreйperiphery relationships within the international financial systemц debtйdefault cycles of sovereign borrowersк” Reviewи нмдпек Suterи яhristian нххо Debt cycles in the worldйeconomy ц foreign loansи financial crisesи and debt settlementsи нфомйнххм юoulder ц Westview Press Suterи яhristian оммх “Financial crises and the institutional evolution of the global debt restructuring regimeи нфомйоммф” Presented at the PEWS яonference on “The Social and Natural Limits of Globalization and the яurrent яonjuncture” University of San Franciscoи эugust ук Taylorи Peter нххт The Way the Modern World Worksц Global Hegemony to Global Impasseк New Yorkц Wileyк Turchinи Pк оммпк Historical dynamicsц why states rise and fallк Princeton University Pressи Princetonи NJк Turchinи Peter and Sergey эк Nefedov оммх Secular яyclesк Princetonи NJц Princeton University Press Turnerи Jonathan Hк омнм Principles of Sociologyи Volume н Macrodynamicsк Springer Verlag Wallersteinи Immanuel нхфрaк “The three instances of hegemony in the history of the capitalist worldйeconomyк” Ppк нммйнмф in Gerhard Lenski дedке яurrent Issues and Research in Macrosociologyи International Studies in Sociology and Social эnthropologyи Volк пук Leidenц EкJк юrillк Wallersteinи Immanuel нхфрb The politics of the worldйeconomyц the statesи the movements and the civilizationsк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Wallersteinи Immanuel нххфк Utopisticsк orи historical choices of the twentyйfirst centuryк New Yorkц The New Pressк Wallersteinи Immanuel оммп The Decline of эmerican Powerк New Yorkц New Press Wallersteinи Immanuel омнм “яontradictions in the Latin эmerican Left” яommentary Noк офуи эugк нси httpцллwwwкiwallersteinкcomлcontradictionsйinйtheйlatinйamericanйleftл Wallersteinи Immanuelк омнн [нхур] The Modern WorldйSystemи Volume нк юerkeleyц University of яalifornia Pressк World юank оммхк World Development Indicators [яD ROM]к Washington Dяц World юank World юank омннк World Development Indicators [online]к Washington Dяц World юankк яhapter пц яontinuities and Transformations in the Evolution of World Systems | фс Chapter 4 GEOPOLITICAL CONDITIONS OF INTERNATIONALISM, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND WORLD LAW Randall Collins International rule of law is not an alternative to geopolitics, but is successful only under specific geopolitical conditions. As historical sociologists in the tradition of Weber have documented, the state’s existence has depended on its military power, which varies in degree of monopolization, of legitimacy, and of extent of territory controlled. Geopolitical principles (comparative resource advantage, positional or marchland advantage, logistical overextension) have determined both the Chinese dynastic cycles, and the balance of power in European history; they continue to apply to recent wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. Guerrilla wars differ from conventional wars by relying especially on geopolitical principles of promoting enemy overextension. Geopolitics encompasses both war and diplomacy, the means by which coalitions among states are organized. The rule of international law depends on a dominant coalition upheld by favorable geopolitical conditions; and on the extension of bureaucracy via state penetration, but now on a world-wide scale. Keywords: geopoliticsи logistical overextensionи state penetrationи guerrilla warк яhapter рц Geopolitical яonditions of Internationalismи Human Rightsи and World Law | фу I n the period between the fall of the USSR in нххн and the immediate aftermath of the September нни оммн attacks in the United Statesи it was often argued that a new world order was emergingк Many politicians as well as journalists and soй cial scientists held that we had entered in a new period where the only use of force would be international coalitions taking action against ‘rogue states’и ‘international outlaws’и and terrorist organizationsк This rhetoric was shared by US President George Wк юush in setting forth the rationale for intervention both in эfghanistan in оммни and two years later in Iraqк The first of these invasions was widely acclaimed in the Westи the second—widely opposedк The ostensible terms of the debate focused on whether each of these invasions fit the rule of international lawк Underneath the ideals and ideologiesи howeverи more basic geopolitical processes have continued to be at workк The configuration of state powers in the world has changedи of courseи since нххми and indeed again to a degree since оммнк This does not mean that the most basic principles of International Relations have changed as wellк Sometimes it is true that a theory is so specific to the historical periodи in which it is formulatedи that when condiй tions change the theory no longer worksк Sixty years ago much importance was given to юalance of Power theoryк This theory held that when several big states struggle for powerи they make alliances so that they keep up a balance of power of roughly equal strengthк The theory was based on the period of European history when Englandи on its island off from the яontinentи looked upon European struggles and always chose to fight on the side of the weaker coalitionи so that no state could ever dominate the яontinentк When France was strongи England allied with Germanyч when Germany was strongи England allied with Franceк юalance of power is not a very general theory howй everч it does not explain why the balance of power disappeared after the end of the Second World Warч and it does not explain earlier state systems such as the Roman Empireи or the dynasties of Imperial яhinaк In factи юalance of Power theory does not even explain England’s behaviorч at the same time England was maintaining balance of power politics in Europeи it was expanding an overseas empire around the rest of the worldк More recent fashions in International Relations theory include neorealismч andи on the other handи the theory of hegemonic stabilityк These theories clash on the quesй tion of whether the relations among states are a realm of anarchyи where each follows its own selfйinterest and no laws or principles control them except their own forceч orи on the contraryи that there is an international or interstate orderи a framework in which the world carries on its businessк In the latter theoryи the strongest state or hegemon acts to enforce the rules of the international gameи and thus provides stability—in this view it is functionally useful for the world to have a hegemonic power like юritain or фф | яollins the US to keep orderк In factи both things are possibleк Under some historical condiй tionsи the world looks like a violent confrontation of selfйinterested statesч at other timesи there is more of an appearance of international rules of the gameк юut this is a continuumи not an allйorйnothing choice between extremesч states exist by controlling military forceи but they also tendи to lesser or greater degreeи to enter into alliances and coalitionsи and to make arrangements even with their enemiesк We have seen these throughout historyц the Roman Empire was at first a system of alliances before it became an Empireч the Holy Roman Empire дor German Empireе of the European middle ages was chiefly just a diplomatic structureи a kind of early and limited version of the United Nationsк Historicallyи the units do not stay staticч sometimes states beй come bigger or smallerи more independent or more amalgamatedи with many possible variations in betweenц the history of яhinaи Hong Kongи and other parts of East эsia provide good examplesк эnd new state forms emergeч sometimes alliances become stronger and turn into statesи as we see happeningи perhapsи today in the case of the European Unionи and happened омм years ago in the federation which became the United States of эmericaк New coalitionsи including those formed under the rationale of combating terrorismи must judged as to where they will fall along the continuum from a weak decentralized alliance to a centralized structure of world governmentк эnother theory which is linked to a particular historical time and place is the theoй ry of яhinese dynastiesк This is the theoryи held by яhinese historians for almost оммм yearsи that яhina goes through a dynastic cycleц firstи there is a strong centralized stateч the emperor or state leader has high prestige and legitimacyч then the state becomes corruptи the o cials become ineffectiveи tax collection weakensи bandits appear inside the borders and foreign enemies outside become more troublesomeк Eventually the state falls into disintegrationч but then one of these small states becomes strongerч it conquers and unifies the restи and starts a new dynastyк In some respects this is a strong theoryи at least for the period from the Han dynasty up through the Qing dynastyи and some think perhaps even laterк Howeverи we may askц does this theory apply only to яhinaы эre there no general principles which apply equally to яhina and to other statesы The Roman Empireи for exampleи expanded and then collapsedи but it never was reconstituted as a new empireч instead it broke into pieces that have never been reunitedк In the Warring States period for about смм years before the Han dyй nastyи there was no dynastic cycle but instead there were many states in north яhina which acted according to юalance of Power theoryч whenever one of these states beй came strong enough to threaten to conquer all the othersи a coalition formed against it which prevented its expansionк Why should яhinese dynastic cycles begin at a parй ticular time in historyы эnd does the principle of a dynastic cycle come to an endи once яhina becomes part of the larger global world of the омth and онst centuriesы яhapter рц Geopolitical яonditions of Internationalismи Human Rightsи and World Law | фх Historical questions about the deep past such as cycles in яhinaи as well as conй temporary questions about the trajectory of the US military policy in its period of world hegemonyи and about the prospects for international lawи all hinge upon a more thorough understanding of the conditions of relations among statesк Here I will summarize two theories which help explain all of these historical changesи including the situation of the world todayк First is the geopolitical theory of the stateч and the second is the theory of bureaucratization as basis for formal lawк юoth theories develй op from classic analysis by Max Weberи but have been taken much further by recent historical sociologistsк э THE MILITARY-CENTERED GEOPOLITICAL THEORY OF STATE POWER geopolitical theory of the state has developed from the implications of Weй ber’s point that the state is fundamentally an organization of military force which claims a monopoly over the legitimate use of force upon a territory дWeй ber нхтф [нхоо]ек If such a theory is to be of useи it should be treated as a set of variй ablesи not as a constantк How much monopoly over legitimate force a state hasи and how much territory it applies toи is not a constantи but changes over time as the outй come of political and military struggleк The principles which determine these changes are principles of geopoliticsк What then are the key geopolitical [GP] processesы What makes a state geopolitiй cally stronger in its control over a geographical territoryи and what makes it weakerи introducing a degree of geopolitical strainы I will summarize in a series of ceteris paribus principles which bring out the causes of variations in the territorial power of statesч since all causes may operate simultaneouslyи we must combine all these prinй ciples to explain changes in the power of statesк нк Resource advantage. States which mobilize greater economic and population resources tend to expand at the expense of states mobilizing lesser such resourcesк юig states get biggerч and rich states get biggerи because they absorb smaller or poorer states on their borders—either by conquest and formal annexationи or by means of alliancesи protectorates or empires absorbing their economic resources and exercising command over their military forcesк ок Geopositional advantage. States with potential enemies on fewer frontiers tend to expand at the expense of states with a larger number of frontiers to defendч this is sometimes referred to as the advantage of marchlands over centrallyй хм | яollins located statesк яonverselyи states in the middle of a zone of multiple states tend to be caught in a web of multiple shifting alliances and to fragment over timeк The first two principlesи resource advantage and marchland advantageлinterior disadvantageи cumulate over timeч relatively resourceйricher or geographically better positioned states grow at the expense of poorer and interior statesи thereby swallowй ing up their resources and controlling their territoryк Over long periods of time дmy estimate is several centuriesеи a few large states consolidateк This leads to periodic showdown wars дor soйcalled hegemonic warsч e.g., the Napoleonic wars were a heй gemonic warч World War II was anotherек Such showdown wars are highly destructive and are fought at a high degree of ferociousnessи in contrast to wars fought in balй ance of power situations among many small contendersи where gentlemanly rules of limited combat tend to prevailк э showdown war may end either by total victory of one sideи which establishes a ‘universal’ empire over the accessible ‘world’ч or to muй tual exhaustion of resources by the contendersи opening them up to disintegration and incursion from new smaller contenders on the marginsк пк Principle of overextension or logistical overstretch. The greater the distance from its home resource base a state extends its territorial controlи the greater the logistical strainч overextension occurs at the point at which more resources are used up in transportation than can be applied in military force relative to the forces which enemies can muster at that locationк Overextension not only causes military defeat and territorial lossи but is a major cause of state fiscal strain and state breakdownк The timeйpatterns of the growth of large states or empiresи and their collapseи are quite differentк Whereas the cumulative growth of resources and territorial expansion occurs gradually over a long period of time дon the order of centuriesеи the collapse of empires tends to occur quite rapidly дin a few crisis yearsек Overextension is especially dangerous for a state because it tends to cause revoй lutionsк Not only does the state lose territoryи but also its monopoly over forceи and its ruling faction or party tends to lose legitimacyч and these are crucial conditions leadй ing towards revolutionк This follows from the state breakdown theory of revolutionsц the model that revolutions are never successful merely because of dissatisfaction from belowи but only where popular dissatisfaction is mobilized in a situation of crisis in the state apparatus of coercionч that in turn is typically due to military strainsи either diй rectly or in their effects upon state revenuesи with the situation exacerbated by conflict between propertied and state elites over who is to pay for the shortfall дSkocpolи нхухч яhapter рц Geopolitical яonditions of Internationalismи Human Rightsи and World Law | хн Goldstoneи нххнч яollinsи нххсек The link to external geopolitical affairs is both direct and indirectц direct because military weakness reduces the legitimacy of whoever is in controlи indirect because military expenses have historically been the bulk of state expenditure and accumulated debtк Let us see now how GP principles apply to the яhinese dynastic cycleк Firstц the importance of the economic resource baseк юecause of the geographical configuraй tion of East эsiaи any stateи which unified the two great river valleys of the Yellow River and the Yangtseи would have population and economic wealth much greater than any other state in the regionк Thus the central state was able to expand against enemies in almost all directionsи which were certain to be smaller and poorerк Eventually the overй extension principle comes inц successful яhinese armies extend to frontiers which are very far from the home baseч this produces logistical strainи and the military budget becomes increasingly expensiveи at just the time that armies become less effectiveк This is what causes rebellions against taxationи the rise of banditryи and the corruption of o cialsк When the crisis occursи яhina finds itself in the center defending attacks from many different directionsк Thus the middle splits upи and there occurs a period of fragmentationи the recurrent warring states periods which occur in the intervals beй tween the great dynastiesк Eventually one of the smaller states located in a borderland or marchland regionи begins to growи until it attains cumulative advantage and reuniй fies the great population areas of the centerк Now there is a strong dynastyи deriving strong legitimacy from its recent geopolitical successи and the dynastic cycle begins againк The dynastic cycle follows from GP principlesи but only as long as яhina was in a zone which was largely cut off from other parts of the worldи especially by the inefй ficiency of transportation in early historical periodsк Once яhina became part of the larger space of world power relationsи the conditions for the dynastic cycle were no longer presentк Thusи the cycle operated in a particular period of historyи although it was the result of causal principles which are universalк Thus although GP principles are first formulated by being abstracted from parй ticular historical periodsи it has been possible to broaden the application of such prinй ciples by reformulating them on the basis of wide historical comparisonsк яlassic and modern efforts to formulate GP principlesи which I have drawn upon in my summaryи have been based upon studies of GrecoйRoman antiquity as well as early modern through contemporary Europe дэndreskiи нхунч Gilpinи нхфнч Kennedyи нхфуч McNeillи нхтпи нхфо ranged even more widely in world historyек My own initial inductive forй mulation дяollinsи нхуфе was based upon analyzing historical atlases for the Middle хо | яollins East and Mediterranean regions from the first ancient empires through medieval and modern timesи and for яhina since the earliest dynasties дsee also яollins нххо for application to kinshipйbased societiesек In other wordsи GP principles дresource adй vantageи marchlandsи overextensionи etc.е hold across the range of patrimonial and bureaucratic state formsк In additionи I was able to use GP principles successfully in нхфм to predict the strains which brought about the collapse of the Soviet empire дa continuation of the older Russian empireе дяollinsи нхфти нххсек эnd finallyи geopoй litical principles fit into a coherent theory of the stateи developed from scholars from Weber through Skocpolи Tilly and Mannи which as we will seeи gives a wellйsupported picture of all major aspects of state growthи state crisesи state organizationи political mobilization and revolutionк THE GEOPOLITICS OF WAR IN AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, AND PAKISTAN T he early phase of the US war in эfghanistan was not a repetition of the Vietnam warи nor a repetition of the Soviet war in эfghanistanк To apply GP principlesи we must summarize the resources on each sideи look at their geographical poй sitionsи and their problems of logistical extension or overextensionк In the cases of the Vietnam war and the Sovietйэfghanistan warи there were two big world power blocsч hence each side in these local wars had support from much bigger chains of resourcesк In both casesи these were guerrilla warsк The guerrillas did not have to win the war by battlefield victoriesи but only to continue resistance until their opponents’ supply lines became too costly—in other wordsи to wait until logistical overextension made their opponent withdrawк In additionи in the case of the Sovietйэfghanistan warи the Soviets had multiple military commitments on other fronts—in Eastern Europeи Northeast эsiaи the longйdistance nuclear weapons raceи etc. The Soviet weakness was precisely the reverse of the marchland advantage—the USSR was in the middle exй tending forces in all directionsк It was Gorbachev’s effort to reduce these multiple miliй tary commitments that led to the Soviet policy of giving up Eastern Europeи allowing the wave of antiйяommunist revolts that eventually broke up the USSRк In contrast with thisи the war in эfghanistan in October—December оммн was an alliance of all the big powers against the supporters of the terrorist movement alйQaй edaк From the first GP principleи resource advantageи we would expect the US forces and allies to winк The second GP principleи geopositional advantage or disadvantageи posed no problem for the US forces insofar as it was not fighting multiple wars on widely separated frontsк The main GP danger was in the third principleи overextensionц эfghanistan is very far from Western supply basesи and thus the war could become яhapter рц Geopolitical яonditions of Internationalismи Human Rightsи and World Law | хп very costlyи depending on how long it would continueк The main worry of US policy during the нххмs was to avoid logistical overextension—the soйcalled lesson of the Vietnam war—not to become bogged down in long and expensive wars in distant placesк Thus President George Wк юushи in the early period of his administrationи tried to bring the US military into a completely defensive postureи and to withdraw from international commitmentsк This was changedи of courseи by the attack of Septemй ber нн—according to the principle that external attack brings national solidarityи and widespread desire for national military action дяoserи нхстек This is what happened in the summer of нхнр in Europeи when after an assassination in Sarajevo the states of эustriaи Russiaи Germanyи Franceи Italy and England began to threaten each other with warч these threats increased national solidarity in each placeи and huge crowds in the streets in Viennaи юerlinи Moscowи Parisи and London demanded that their countries go to war дScheffи нххрек эfter the attacks of September нни there was a huge increase in national solidarity in the United Statesч the level of agreement on public policy tempoй rarily became very highч the popularity of President юush rose from moderate дabout см б approval ratingе to the highest ratings ever recorded дхм бе дяollinsи оммрек The question becameц how long would this national solidarity lastи compared to how long it would take before the problem of logistical overextension set inы эccordй ing to my analysis of indicators of national solidarity—especially the display of flags on houses and cars which broke out spontaneously in the days immediately after the хлнн attack—peaks of solidarity under attack remain high for about three monthsи and recede back to normal in six months дяollinsи оммрек The US victory over the Taliй ban regime was well within this periodк One reason for the rapid victory is that the war was not a guerrilla warи but a conй ventional war between Taliban troops defending fixed positionsи especially around the citiesи and the Northern эlliance troops supported by the USк This was exactly the situй ation in which US superiority in air power would be most effectiveк э second reason was that the Taliban was not organized as a unified army but as a coalition of warlords and tribal clansи along with some ideologicallyйrecruited troopsк We must distinguish between the Taliban movementи which was concerned above all with enforcing its conservative Islamic religious policyи and the wider Taliban coalitionк Hence it was very easy for the Taliban coalition of clans and warlords to unravelи once it became apparй ent the Taliban would lose any direct battles against superior US military resourcesк This is a typical case of a bandwagon effect дMarwell в Oliverи нххпек Once the USйled coalition destroyed the Taliban regime and installed a favorable regime in o ce in эfghanistanи the situation did indeed shift back towards a situation хр | яollins more resembling the Soviet war during the нхфмsк Through оммхи that war was essenй tially a stalemateц the Taliban guerrillas failed to overthrow the central governmentи the US coalition was unable to destroy the guerrillasк In additionи the guerrilla war spread across the border into Pakistanк Geopolitical principles have not as yet been applied extensively to guerrilla warч as a step in this directionи I suggest that guerrilй las play for different stakes than conventional military powersк Guerrilla war is not a useful tactic for invading foreign territoryи nor of holding territoryч thusи the Taliban was easy to defeat when it held conventional government powerк On the other handи guerrilla war is quite e cient in denying a conventional military power full control of a territory—preventing it from establishing a Weberian state of monopoly over vioй lence—since guerrilla war requires much fewer resources in manpowerи weaponsи and logistical base than conventional warк Guerrillas largely avoid problems of logistical overextensionи since they operate close to their home baseк In contrastи opponents of guerrillas are at a particular disadvantage the further from their home base they operй ate—not only are logistical lines of supply longer and more expensiveи but an army from a distant land is more culturally alien and thus likely to generate more cultural resistance by its very presenceк The spread of the guerrilla war into Pakistan is explainable in part by the geoй political pattern that powerйprestige increases inflow of resources via recruitment to alliancesк Powerйprestige is always relative to what a military force is attempting to doч guerrillas have only to survive to build their reputation as invincibleч whereas a conventional force has the goal of defeating an enemy fully and thereby establishing monopoly of force on the territoryк The longer the TalibanлalйQaeda guerrillas hold out in эfghanistanи the more it makes them appear a permanent feature of the local sceneч it is this local growth in powerйprestige that helps account for their successes in recruiting allies and reinforcements in nearby areas of Pakistanк эnd these additions to local resources need not be large—need not even be a majority of the local popuй lation—to be effective as resources for the goals of guerrilla warк Neverthelessи although fighting against guerrillas in эfghanistanи and by proxyи in Pakistanи has increased strain on US military resources and thus the amount of overй extensionи the issue was not decisive for US powerйprestige either at home or interй nationallyи because the focus of attention during this period had shifted to Iraqк When the US дtogether with a limited number of alliesе invaded Iraq in March оммпи its miliй tary success followed geopolitical principlesц large resource advantagesи overwhelmй ing concentration of those resources in a single theatre of operations дthe эfghaniй stan war having been reduced to a small scale of antiйguerrilla operationsеч logistical overextension would not come into play as long as the war was shortк Here we must яhapter рц Geopolitical яonditions of Internationalismи Human Rightsи and World Law | хс elaborate on the character of geopolitical resources and how they are transformed into military resourcesк The US had a much bigger economic resource base and popuй lation than Iraq in оммпи while the latter was essentially isolated and without alliesк In addition gross economic and population advantagesи US military organization had over the past ом years been engaged in a soйcalled ‘revolution in military affairs’и which transformed both weaponry and organization into a highйtechи computerйcenй tered modeк The development of aerial surveillance by global positioning satellitesи of laserйguided missilesи infraйred sensors and other devices made US forces much more accurate in hitting targets with longйdistance weaponsк Highйtech development also allowed relatively smaller armies дalthough still on the order of several hundred thouй sand troopsе to carry the firepower equivalent to far larger conventional armies of the midйtwentieth centuryк юy these meansи USлcoalition forces were able to destroy the command and control structure of Iraqi military organization very rapidlyи and to overrun the country in a period of weeksк The relatively larger Iraqi army and its numй bers of armored vehicles and artillery were immobilized by the highйtech weaponry and coordination system of the invadersк My point here is not to extol the dominance of technologyч rather we must understand that technological advance is itself a means by which superior economic resources are turned into military powerк Decades of US investment in military research and developmentи based on a substantial portion of the worldйleading US economyи culminated in the highйtech military organization which won a blitzkrieg over the older and more ‘lowйtech’ Iraqi military forcesк дThis is not to say Iraqi military equipment was entirely ‘lowйtech’—the war has been deй scribed as an army of the year оммм fighting against an army of the нхтмsке High tech is the mode in which geopolitical resources manifest themselves todayк Indeedи this was already true at the time of the World Wars of the омth centuryи but the disparity in technology between the sides was minimal in the First and Second World Wars and hence not apparentк The importance of high tech was masked during the USйVietnam warи because the guerrillas had only to hold outи rather than actually winи until the powerйprestige of the longйdistance US occupation had declined and brought political pressures for settlementк Only in the brief нххн Gulf Warи and in the оммп invasion of Iraqи was the importance of a wide disparity in military technology apparentи since these were wars which matched pairs of conventional military forces against each otherк эfter the successful invasion of spring оммпи the war in Iraq changed from a conй ventional war into a guerrilla warк Here highйtech weapons are less decisiveк Guerrillas extend the trend of modern warfare in the sense that as longйdistance firepower has хт | яollins become more lethalи military forces have dispersed instead of concentrating where they would be easy targets дюiddleи оммрек Guerrillas take this principle to the extremeи by hiding among the civilian population in very small groupsи and concentrating on attacking enemy logistics linesк Guerrilla war is a war of attritionи above all aimed at increasing not just the material cost but the political cost of persisting in attempts to hold foreign territoryк Neverthelessи geopolitical principles still hold in a guerrilla warк The side with large resource advantages can persist in fighting guerrillas as long as the actual rate of material attrition is not too highч and this becomes largely a matter of political willк Viewed sociologicallyи political will is the pattern of emotional solidarй ity around government leaders during a period of conflictк эs I have indicated above дin regard to the period of intense national solidarity in the months following the хлннлмн attackеи solidarity is highest at the beginning of a conflictч it also peaks at moments of victoryч otherwise it gradually declinesк Thus popular support for the US war in Iraq declined over the yearsи especially during the period of guerrilla warк These matters are always di cult to judge at the time when they are happeningи especially by observers who are politically engaged and have strong feelings about the propriety of policy decisionsк From an analytical viewpointи it should be apparent that although popular enthusiasm for a war tends to decline the longer the war goes on дas was apparent in all countries during the First and Second World Warsи as well as during the long US wars in Koreaи Vietnamи and Iraqеи neverй theless antiйwar sentiment has rarely if ever become high enough to cause a Great Power—i.e.и a state with strong international powerйprestige at the beginning of a conflict—to voluntarily pull out of a war when it had not yet been thoroughly defeatй ed on the battlefieldк Thus it should not be surprising that President George Wк юush was able to win reйelection in оммри despite impassioned opposition both inside the United Statesи and elsewhere дespecially in Europeе where the rationale for attacking Iraq in оммп was strongly criticizedк юy the time an ostensible antiйwar candidate won the US Presidencyи юarrack Obama in оммфи the war in Iraq had already been winding downи and US troops were in the process of withdrawing and turning over the task of fighting guerrillas to Iraqi government forcesк In the immediate perspective of оммхи it is striking how little real difference there was between the military policy of the юush and Obama administrationsи the latter carrying over the trajectory of the formerк This supports the sociological point that state leaders tend to go along with the exigencies of military powerйprestigeи and that the rhetoric of being a candidate in opposition is different from the actions of an elected head of stateк The political criticism of the US invasion of Iraq was largely focused on the quesй tion of international norms and rightsк The юush administration held that the US had яhapter рц Geopolitical яonditions of Internationalismи Human Rightsи and World Law | ху the moral right to invade what it called a terrorist stateч domestic opposition in the US дmostly from the internationalist liberalлleftе and in Europe held that only an inй ternational consensus could decide such a moveи and that the US unilateralism was illegitimateк The use of military power by individual states was held to be superseded now by international organization and international lawк To put this in sociological perspectiveи we need to examine the conditions underlying diplomatic solutions to international crises and their relation to military actionsк THE GEOPOLITICS OF INTERNATIONAL COALITIONS G P principles do not mean that states are always threatening to go to warк On the contraryи states often pursue diplomacy instead of fightingк юut it is a misй take to regard GP and diplomacy as separate from each otherк Diplomatic strength depends on GP strengthч successful diplomacy takes account of GP principles rather than ignores themк GP principles do not become supersededи even in a world rule of humanitarian lawк It is important to emphasize that GP principles do not require the bounded indeй pendent state actor as the unit of analysisк Insteadи GP analysis focuses upon the orй ganization of forceи and derives the territorial and organizational configurations into which this organization is shaped under different historical conditionsк The formation of a new type of organization of forceи at the level of international alliances or even world governmentи is compatible with these principlesк GP principles were first develй oped by analyzing the relations of separate statesи but they apply to any organization which attempts to exercise military force over a territoryк It could be an international allianceи or a world governmentк Examples are the United Nationsи which is as yet a rather weak world governmentи but one which nevertheless attempts to define as legitimate solely that force which it sanctionsч or the European Unionи which is a fedй eration moving towards becoming a European governmentч it will become a such at the point at which it has an autonomous European armyк There are many other kinds of international organizations and alliancesи such as NэTO in its recent phase of exй pansionи and ad hoc alliances such as the antiйterrorist alliance assembled by the US after September нни оммн to invade эfghanistanч and the much smaller coalition put together to support the оммп invasion of Iraqк To the extent that the UNи EUи NэTO or any other such international alliance beй come effective in enforcing a new world orderи it is because they have GP advantages over their potential opponentsк That is to sayи they must be superior in resources and in organization to mobilize those resourcesк They are subject to geopositional conй хф | яollins straintsи since it is easier to project force at some targets than othersк It is easier to project Western forces in the юalkans than in яentral эfricaи which explains why there was an intervention to stop ethnic cleansing in юosnia and Kosovoи but not in the genocide in Rwandaйюurundiк эnd international organizations will be in danger of loй gistical overextensionи like all previous statesк If there can be megaйstates and world governmentsи there is also the possibility of state breakdowns in these unitsк There is always the possibility that international organizations may undergo revolutionary breakdownsи driven by the classic pathway of GP strainи fiscal crisisи intraйelite strugй glesи and coinciding popular resentments from belowк Even if there is a real world government or massive world federations in the futureи they will be subject to the reй strictions of GP principlesк The possibility that a world government might some day be established does not mean that it would necessarily be permanentч it could undergo a revolution or state breakdownи just like previous statesк Such a development remains in the hypothetical futureк Thus far the transnational coalitions and their righteous crusades in favor of international law and justice look a great deal like previous alliances and federationsк NэTO’s role in the Kosovo interй vention of нхххи and the negotiations of recent years to expand NэTO membership into the old Warsaw pactи can be interpreted as a project to keep the US involved in the center of European powerи at a time when it has been implicitly in rivalry with the EU as alternative way of organizing military force upon the яontinentк Such rival and overlapping coalitions have happened beforeч the geopolitics of medieval Europe was to a considerable extent a struggle between the opposing claims of яhristendom uniй fied under the papacyи as against the German дor Holy Romanе Empireч there were also some smaller confederations which battened upon the fall of the Empire to creй ate federal states such as Switzerland and the Dutch Republic дяollinsи нхххек NэTO in the нххмs looks a good deal like the German Empire of the late Middle эgesи in the sense that it was mobilized for wars against external enemies дin the case of NэTO this was first the Soviet blocи then rogue statesч in the case of the medieval German Empire it was mainly the Ottoman threatеч this collective enterprise was always led by the strongest state дin the modern case the USи in the medieval case the Habsburg rulerе which took military command and provided the bulk of the troopsк Historicallyи alliances and federations have often exercised military force under strong control from its dominant memberч in effect the entire alliance operates to enй hance the powerйprestige of its leaderк In ancient Greeceи the эthenian League against the Persians was also the эthenian empire coercing participation and punishing withй drawalк It is a plausible argument that whatever the surface emotions and humanitarй ian ideals involvedи the various USйled coalitions of the postйнхрс period are manifesй яhapter рц Geopolitical яonditions of Internationalismи Human Rightsи and World Law | хх tations of the desire of US political leaders to keep up powerйprestige in the internaй tional arenaк Nor is the idealism of today’s transnational coalitions newч the crusades of medieval яhristendom which bolstered the power of the Pope were equally idealisй ticи and in general every large military enterprise acts in an atmosphere of emotionally charged beliefк The big test of a truly transnational political order would be if a major coalition were to go into military action against the desires of its strongest memberц if the UN were to take actionи for instanceи against the USэк эs of todayи the UN has a long way to go to become a state in the strong sense of the termк The UN assembles military forces by a feudalйlike levéeи in which each partner to the alliance raises and pays for its own troops and keeps them under chains of command which are largely separateи except for temporary international combinaй tions of o cers at the topк Under these conditionsи the effect of warfare in galvanizing national identity is not transferred to the coalitionи but reinforces the ethnoйnationй alism of the states identified with each body of troopsк э true UN armyи and thus the basis of a strongly held worldйidentityи would depend upon the UN being able to recruit its own soldiers from throughout its member countriesи combining them into formations irrespective of originк The state penetration of the UN дnot to mention other alliancesе is shallowч it does not wield coercive power to discipline its own memй bersи but thus far has intervened only in the internal affairs of nonйmembersк In this respect these international coalitions have operated like empires of conquest expandй ing their spheres of controlк L STATE BUREAUCRATIZATION AS BASIS FOR RULE OF LAW et us return to the questionц is the world of the early онst century moving towards a new era of international rule of law to support universal human rightsы Such claims have been made increasingly in recent yearsи and some organizational apparatus has been developed to attempt to put them into actionк Neverthelessи this idealized goal in the use of force is not so newи and that it happens in accord with exй isting sociological principlesк Law is a set of ideals and proceduresч but law always has an organizational baseк Laws do not enforce themselvesк Thus it was naiveи on the part of some political comй mentators on the September нни оммн attacksи to say that Osama bin Laden and othй ers responsible should be brought to trialч but at the same time to say there should be no war against the Taliban coalitionк The notion that criminal justice is an alternative to war is an inaccurate extrapolation of the domestic power of the state into the realm нмм | яollins of interйstate relationsк The organizational base of law is the power of the stateч and that in turn depends on geopolitical powerи and on the extent and effectiveness of state organizationк In the modern ideal of the rule of law is that there should be general principles designating individual rights and responsibilitiesи and formal procedures for judging who has which rightsи and who is responsible to be punished for violationsк The orgaй nizational basis for this kind of law is the rise of the modern bureaucratic stateк The rise of the modern state is a topic on which there has taken place in the last ос years of scholarship a cumulative development of historical sociologyк I will briefly summaй rize three pointsц the military revolutionи state penetration into societyи and the extenй sion of bureaucracyк The fullйfledged ideal type of the forceйmonopolizing territorial state gradually developed since нсмм in the Westи although there have been variations along this continuum elsewhere in world historyк The story that we have become familiar with through the work of Mann днхфти нххпеи Tilly днххмеи Parker днхффе and others begins with the military revolution which drastically increased the size and expense of armed forcesк State organization began to grow in order to extract resources to support current military expenses and past debtsи above all by creating a revenueйextraction apparatusк This was the pathway towards bureaucratization and centralizationк State penetration into society brought a series of effects in economicи political and cultural spheresк State apparatus now could increasingly regulate the economyи provide infraй structureи compel education and inscribe the population as citizens in government reй cordsк These same processes mobilized people’s collective identities into social moveй ments operating at a national levelц in part because the state itself now constituted a visible target for demands from belowч in part because state penetration provided the mobilizing resources of communicationи transportationи and consciousnessйraisingк State penetration thus fostered both its own support and its domestic oppositionч as Mann has demonstratedи both nationalism and class conflict were mobilized as part of the same processк The modern state became a breedingйgrounds for social moveй mentsч and whenever a social movement has been successfulи it has institutionalized its victories by creating new laws which are administered by the bureaucratic stateк The rise of the modern state leads directly to the theory of bureaucracyк In terms of organizationи the rise of modernity is best characterizedи not as a move from feuй dalism to capitalismи but from the patrimonial household to bureaucratic organizationк What Weber called patrimonial organization exists where the basic unit of society is the householdи and larger structures are built up as networks of links among houseй яhapter рц Geopolitical яonditions of Internationalismи Human Rightsи and World Law | нмн holdsк It is important to note that the household mode of organization is not the same thing as the family mode of organizationи although they are relatedк The household typically had at its core a familyи the head of household with his wife дor wivesе and childrenи perhaps with some other relativesч and thus property and authority were hereditaryк юut households could never be very large if the only people they includй ed were family membersк Patrimonial households were full of pseudoйfamilistic relaй tionshipsч a household of the upper classes would include servantsи retainersи guardsи guestsи hostages and othersи all supported from the household economyи and all exй pected to provide some resourceц workи loyaltyи or military forcedк эn important house contained within it enough armed force to be powerfulч it was a fortified householdк Links to other households of lesser or greater power constituted the political structure of the societyч under certain legal arrangementsи these might be called properly ‘feuй dal’и but a variety of other structures were possibleк The economy was also organized in patrimonial households or their linkagesч the labor force consisted of servants and apprentices under familistic protection and discipline rather than independent wage relationshipsк To refer to a great ‘house’ was both literal and metaphoricalч the aristocй racy and the great burghers or merchants were the possessors of the largest houseй hold units with the most retainersк The rise of bureaucracy was the dismantling of the patrimonial householdк Workй place was separated from homeи private force was superseded by professional miliй tary and police units belonging to the stateк The physical separation among buildings where productionи consumptionи politics and administration took place was also the creation of the division between public and private spheresк юureaucracy was the creй ation of o ces separate from the persons who held themи the creation of a sphere of interaction apart from family ties and pseudoйfamilistic relationships of loyalty and subordinationк The impersonality of bureaucratic organization depends upon paperй workи codifying activities in written rules and keeping count of performance in files and recordsк юureaucracy is thus the source of modern ideologiesц the rule of lawи fairй nessи justiceи impartialityч the previous practices of loyalty to the patrimonial houseй holdи and the consumption of organizational property became condemned as nepoй tism and corruptionк юureaucracy is the source of individualism since the unit of acй counting and responsibility is the individual who can be appointedи promotedи moved from one position to anotherи paidи reprimandedи and dismissedи all with reference only to their personal dossier rather than their family and household connectionsк The shift from patrimonial households to bureaucracy promoted the ideology of indiй vidual freedomи but also the ideology of alienation from the impersonal public orderч both are sides of the same coinк The shift to bureaucracy also made possible modй ern mass politicsц ideologicallyи it fostered the conception of the individual’s rights to нмо | яollins democratic representation and legal status apart from the jurisdiction of the houseй hold headч structurallyи it made it possible for workersи womenи and youth to mobilize in their own places of assembly and their own cultural and political movementsк One reason class conflict became possible in the modern era was because penetration by the revenueйextracting state created a centralized arena for political actionч a compleй mentary reason was that class and other conflicts were mobilized by being freed from the constraints of patrimonial household organization дTillyи нхуфи нххсч Mannи нххпек The great historical transformation was the shift from patrimonialism to bureauй cracyк These Weberian concepts are of course ideal typesи and actual historical conй figurations were often mixturesк Weber used a concept of ‘patrimonial bureaucracy’ for intermediate formsи typically a more centralized governmental structure than feuй dalism or local chiefdoms д‘caudillismo’ in Latin эmericaек Egyptи late Imperial Romeи many яhinese dynastiesи and early modern Europe all had particular mixtures of these ideal typesи which slid up and down the continuum of patrimonial and bureaucratic formsк What caused the transition from patrimonial to bureaucratic organizationы Weй ber’s answer has usually been interpreted as a series of material preconditions дexisй tence of writingи longйdistance transportationи a monetary systemи etc.е or as a funcй tionalist argument that bureaucracy arises because it is the most e cient way to coй ordinate largeйscale and complex activitiesк For the grand historical transition we are concerned withи there is a more directly political answerк Recall that we are considerй ing the state processuallyи as a struggle to monopolize legitimate force upon a terriй toryк The state is a projectи an attempt to control and coordinate force in as definite a manner as possibleч under particular historical conditionsи what is possible along that line may be quite limitedк How then do organizations move along that continuum towards increasing monopolistic controlы Weber sees the shift from kinship alliance politics towards patrimonial household domination as one move towards centralizaй tion and monopolizationч the shift to the bureaucratic state is a much stronger move higher up the continuumк What enabled some states to make that move earlier or to a greater degree than othersы юureaucratization was a move in the struggle between whoever was the paraй mount lord at any particular moment and his allies and rivals among the other great patrimonial householdsк э crucial condition was the geopolitical configurationк Deй centralized chiefdoms and hereditary feudal lineages raised less military resources for their paramount lords and thus tended to be conqueredи or were forced to imitate the bureaucratizing manners of the more successful statesк Dynastic states proved geoй яhapter рц Geopolitical яonditions of Internationalismи Human Rightsи and World Law | нмп politically weak because farйflung marriage ties produced scattered statesи in effect subject to the effects of logistical overextensionк History of course is more compliй cated than a simple winnowing out of nonйbureaucratic states by bureaucratic onesч resource advantage is not the only GP principleи and some states favored by marchй land positions might survive with more quasiйpatrimonial structures дas юritain did down through the нхth centuryеч and bureaucratizing states might nevertheless fail to expand their territorial power because of logistical overextensionк Neverthelessи the longйrun trend is towards the victory of the bureaucratizersк The successive waves of the military revolution were steps in the development of bureaucracyи first within the military itself дespecially logisticallyйintensive branches such as artilleryеи then in the revenueйextraction serviceк State penetration was largely bureaucratization at the expense of the patrimonial householdк Extensive market capitalism and especially its industrial form prospered under particular versions of state penetration and military mobilizationч in this way bureaucracy spread from government into the economic secй torч and this in turn fed back into still further government bureaucracyк I have sketched a theoretical perspective of causality from the outside inц the variй ous ramifications of the military revolution and the revenueйextracting stateк In imй portant waysи geopolitical processes are prime moversи even as they play into a multiй causal situationк Not to say that states cannot take alternative pathwaysи but they do so at a riskц if they are too weak geopolitically vis-à-vis their neighborsи they become swallowed up into an expanding state which has successfully negotiated the military revolution and thereby have stateйpenetrating structures imposed upon themк юureaucratization underlies both the positive and negative features of modern societiesк In contemporary discourseи the term bureaucracy is a negative oneц it imй plies ine ciencyи paperworkи impersonalityи and endless complexityк In some parts of the worldи the term bureaucracy also has the connotation of corruptionи a regime of briberyч but this is not a sociological use of the termч it would be more accurate to deй scribe corruption as a form of patrimonial organization—the rule of personal connecй tions—which reemerges inside the framework of bureaucracyк The cure for bureauй cratic corruption is more rule of lawи which is to say bureaucratic administration in the strict sense of the termк Structurallyи bureaucracy is the basis of the rule of lawч and hence the question of a new world order is a question of the future of bureaucracyк нмр | яollins SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR EXPANSION OF WORLD LAW T he transition now being proposed at the beginning of the онst centuryи to a world rule of law and universal human rightsи is an extension of bureaucratic organization and its ideological ethosк The rule of law and the focus upon inй dividual rights are central to the way bureaucratic organization functionsк What may be afoot now is not a transition beyond bureaucracy but an expansion of legalistic bureaucratic organization from the national to a global scaleк To put this more preй ciselyи there have long been in existence networks organized on bureaucratic prinй ciples which have overlapped the boundaries of national statesч what is happening today is that the sheer quantity of such transnational organizations has increasedи and they have moved more intensively into attempting to regulate human behavior everywhere in the world according to an explicit formal codeк We are seeing efforts which are analogous to the state penetration which took place earlier at the national levelи both in conjunction with fledgling international governmentи and in internationй al businessи charitableи and social movement organizations whose networks overlap even wider than today’s international alliancesк What determines whether this moveй ment to spread universal law will succeedы The rule of law developed first inside those states which became bureaucratic and penetrated deeply into their own societiesи so that every individual became subject to the lawк For there to be a world law of human rightsи there must be an organizaй tion which carries out an analogous penetration into every society around the worldк This could be some kind of international organization or coalitionк юut—and this is my main point—its degree of success depends on its geopolitical strengthк эnd that is to say that the expansion of universal rights and protection of those rights must go through a phase where the organizations upholding world law are geopolitically stronger than those who oppose itк This extension could be diplomaticи but it is bound to be at least partly militaryк International organizations will sometimes have to fight and win to establish world lawк This may be accompanied by some peaceful extensionи if the powerйprestige of the international coalition grows strongerи attracting other societies who want to joinи in another bandwagon effectк The ideal of world law is where individuals are held responsible for crimes against human rightsк юut in order to get to that pointи world bureaucratic organization has to penetrate all societiesч and the struggle against this penetration is carried on by groupsи not individualsк Struggles are bound to produce group animosities—followй ing the principle that external attack increases group solidarity—so there are always processes like Islamic groups supporting alйQaeda because it is perceived as a form of яhapter рц Geopolitical яonditions of Internationalismи Human Rightsи and World Law | нмс loyalty to embattled Islamк эnd when conflicts are violentи there are always individual members of groups who are caught in conflicts for which they as individuals are not responsibleк This is particularly true in warи where some civilians and noncombatants always get killed—since warfare is a very crude and dangerous instrumentк юut there seems to be no escape from this on the pathway to world lawк On the opposing sideи the crimes against humanity which some people are attempting to control—genoй cideи murderous ethnic cleansingи terrorist attacks—are by their very nature attacks on groupsи not on individualsи and largely on civilian populationsк It is only at the end of this process—in a territory where the rule of law prevailsи and there is an organization to enforce itи which people consider legitimate—that law can successfully treat conй flicts as crimes for which individuals are to be held responsibleк Finallyи let us askц where does the opposition to universal human rights come fromы Much international ideological conflict of the last ом years has pitted those reй gions with bureaucratic ideals against parts of the world which are still relatively more patrimonialк Interventions against ethnic cleansing and genocide are attempts to imй pose the universalism of bureaucratic regions upon the patrimonial ethics of nonй cosmopolitanи relatively closed communities whose structure fosters ethnic particularй ism and reinforces the bloody ritualism of group vendettaк яonflicts over the rights of women in the Islamic world also have this characterц the bureaucratic part of the world pitted against patrimonial households that Islamic conservatives struggle to preserveк The conflict over international terrorism is a struggle between these two organizationй al formsк We see this organizational conflict in эfghanistanк ‘Taliban’ means students of a madrasa teacherи which is to say a traditional Islamic school in which the teacher acts like head of household for his studentsч and they are bound to him throughout their lives by ties of patrimonial and religious obligationк The Taliban was thus based on explicitly patrimonial organizationи although it has to take on some bureaucratic elements as it attempts to administer the stateк Fundamentalist or conservative Islam is a form of religious organization which is both patrimonial in its own church strucй tureи and which sees itself in a violent struggle to maintain itself against the threat of the outside world based on bureaucratic organizational principlesк Over the long run of historyи modern bureaucratic organization has everywhere prevailed over the patrimonial householdк Much of international terrorism today is an attempt to defend the patrimonial structures remaining in parts of the worldи against the structures and ideologies of bureaucratic organizationк If world law and rights for individuals are based on bureaucratic organizationи it is realistic to expect that the orй ganizational procedures claiming to protect human rights will increase during future historyк This will not be a smooth and continuous trendи since the international orgaй нмт | яollins nizations for administering and enforcing rights are part of the struggle for geopoй litical powerи and are subject to geopolitical tensions and possibilities for breakdownк Human rights will become an increasingly widespread ideological themeи but their realization will depend on the contingencies of organized state powerк эnd that has always been a process of ongoing tensions and conflictк REFERENCES эndreskiи Sк нхунк Military Organization and Societyк юerkeleyи яэц University of яalifornia Pressк юiddleи Sк оммрк Military Powerк Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern юattleк Princetonи NJц Princeton University Pressк яollinsи Rк нхуфк Longйterm Social яhange and the Territorial Power of Statesк In Kriesbergи Lк дedкеи Research in Social Movementsи яonflictsи and яhangeк Volк н дppк н–прек Greenwichи яTц JэI Pressк яollinsи Rк нхфтк Weberian Sociological Theoryк New Yorkц яambridge University Pressк яollinsи Rк нххок The Geopolitical and Economic Worldйsystems of Kinshipйbased and эgrarianйcoercive Societiesк Review нс дsummerец пуп–пффк яollinsи Rк нххск Prediction in Macroйsociologyц The яase of the Soviet яollapseк эmerican Journal of Sociology нммц нссо–нсхпк яollinsи Rк нхххк MacroйHistoryк Essays in Sociology of the Long Runк Stanford University Pressк яollinsи Rк оммрк Rituals of Solidarity and Security in the Wake of Terrorist эttackк Sociological Theory ооц сп–фук яoserи Lк нхстк The Functions of Social яonflictк New Yorkц Free Pressк Gilpinи Rк нхфнк War and яhange in World Politicsк New Yorkц яambridge University Pressк Goldstoneи Jк эк нххнк Revolution and Rebellion in the Modern Worldк юerkeleyи яэц University of яalifornia Pressк Kennedyи Pк нхфук The Rise and Fall of the Great Powersц Economic яhange and Military яonflict from нсмм to омммк New Yorkц Random Houseк Mannи Mк нхфти нххпк The Sources of Social Powerк Vols ни ок New Yorkц яambridge University Pressк McNeillи Wк Hк нхтпк The Rise of the Westк э History of the Human яommunityк яhicagoи ILц University of яhicago Pressк McNeillи Wк Hк нхфок The Pursuit of Powerк яhicagoи ILц University of яhicago Pressк Marwellи Gки and Oliverи Pк нххпк The яritical Mass in яollective эctionк э MicroйSocial Theoryк New Yorkц яambridge University Pressк Parkerи Gк нхффк The Military Revolutionц Military Innovation and the Rise of the Westк New Yorkц яambridge University Pressк яhapter рц Geopolitical яonditions of Internationalismи Human Rightsи and World Law | нму Scheffи Thк Jк нххрк юloody Revengeк Emotionsи Nationalism and Warк юoulderи яOц Westview Pressк Skocpolи Thк нхухк States and Social Revolutionsк New Yorkц яambridge University Pressк Tillyи яhк нхуфк From Mobilization to Revolutionк Readingи Mэц эddisonйWesleyк Tillyи яhк нххмк яoercionи яapitalи and European Statesк экDк ххм–нххмк Oxfordц юlackwellк Tillyи яhк нххск Popular яontention in Great юritainи нусф–нфпрк яambridgeц Harvard University Pressк Weberи Mк нхтф [нхоо]к Economy and Societyк New Yorkц юedminster Pressк нмф | яollins Chapter 5 CONTEMPORARY GLOBALIZATION AND NEW CIVILIZATIONAL FORMATIONS Shmuel N. Eisenstadt In this article I would like to examine some specific aspects of contemporary globalization as they bear on the crystallization of new distinct civilizational formations. The new very intensive processes of contemporary globalization are characterized by growing interconnectedness between economic, cultural and political processes of globalization. The full impact of the processes can be understood only in the new historical context, especially against the background of changes in the international arenas which have been closely connected with processes of globalization during this period. Among different contemporary cultural and civilization forms we note a very important component of contemporary civilization attesting to the fact that different religions are now acting in a common civilizational setting. In this context competition and struggles between religions often became vicious—yet at the same time there developed strong tendencies toward the development of common encouraging interfaith meetings and encounters which focused on their relations in terms of some of the premises of the new civilizational framework rooted in the original program of modernity. These premises implied the possibility of cooperation between them—indeed, even going beyond that. Such attempts at the reformulation of civilizational premises have been taking place in some movements and in new institutional formations such as the European Union, in different local and regional frameworks, as well as in the various attempts by the different ‘peripheries’. Keywords: globalizationи hegemonic centerи contemporary civilizationи civilizational formationsи global confrontationsи nonйWestern societiesк яhapter сц яontemporary Globalization and New яivilizational Formations | ннн T INTRODUCTION he new very intensive processes of contemporary globalization are characterized by growing interconnectedness between economicи cultural and political proй cesses of globalizationк Each of these processes entails continuous encounters between different societies and their respective sectorsк In the cultural arena the proй cesses of globalization were closely connected with the expansion especially through the major media that were often conceived in many parts of the world as uniformи hegemonic and Westernи above all эmericanи cultural programs or visionsи giving rise to strong tendencies for global cultural homogenization andи what has been referred to as ‘deйtraditionalization’к These processes of globalization have been characterized by continual growing mutual impingement of different societies and social sectors throughout the worldк This process gives rise to the possibility of more intensive confrontations between themк These processes entail the continual movements of hitherto peripheralи ‘local’ nonйhegemonic groups and sectors to the centers of their respective national and internal systemsк The movement from periphery into existing centers and also into emerging hegemonic centers often bypasses the transйlocal institutions and public arenasч concomitantly there is a closely related movement of nonйWestern societies or sectors thereof into the hitherto mostly Western centers of modernityк The movements of many ‘peripheral’и be they national or internationalи sectors into the very hegemonic centres of globalizationи were connected first with the conй tinual development of new modes of resistance to globalizationи of various ‘counter’й globalization tendencies and movementsч these forms of resistance include the intenй sification of terrorist activities and associated tendencies to appropriate conventions of modernity thus leading to the development of new visions of civilizationк Secondи such incorporation entailed continual intensive encounters and confronй tations between different civilizational traditions and the respective hegemonic cenй tres—encounters and confrontations which were intensified by the multiple moveй ments of migration and by the impact of the mediaк Thirdи the incorporation of multiple social sectorsи indeed of entire societies into the global framework was closely interwoven with farйreaching processes of dislocaй tion of large sectors of population of many societies and their pushи as it wereи into states of insecurity and anomieк нно | Eisenstadt Fourthи there emerge growing discrepancies in economicи political and social proй cesses between the hegemonic centres and the more peripheral sectorsк Such disй crepancies were of course characteristic both of ‘traditional’ preйmodern globalizaй tionи as well as of the processes of globalization of early modern period and in the era of the hegemonies of the nation and revolutionary states and of capitalist marй ket economiesк In contrast to such discrepancies in the earlier periodsи contemporary discrepancies develop against the background of the homogenizing and centralizing tendencies and ideologies of the nationи revolutionary statesи and more contemporary forcesк These discrepancies entail the possibility for the continual mutual impingeй ment of these different societies and social sectorsк Of special importance in this context is the combination of discrepancies between those social sectors which were incorporated into the hegemonic financial and ‘highй tech’ frameworks and those which were left outк The closely connected farйreaching dislocation of many of the people who comprise the latter sectorsи suffered a decline in their standard of living andи as a resultи gave rise to acute feelings of dislocation and dispossessionк Most visible among such dislocated or dispossessed groups were not necessarily—and certainly not only—those from the lowest economic echelons— poor peasantsи or urban lumpenйproletariatи important as they were in those situaй tionsк Ratherи most prominent among such dislocated sectors wereи firstи groups from the middle or lower echelons of the more traditional sectorsк Those sectors comprise people who were hitherto embedded in relatively stableи even if not very a uentи socialи cultural and economic frameworks or nichesк These sectors дand the people they compriseе were transferred into the mostly lower echelons of new urban centersк Secondlyи large social sectors which were put out from the work forceч and thirdи variй ous highly mobileи ‘modern’ educated groups—professionalsи graduates of modern universities and the like who were denied autonomous access to the new political centers or participation in them—find themselves dispossessed from access to the centres of their respective societies or from their cultural programsк Thusи for instanceи it was not only the dislocation of the Shia clergy from strong positions in the cultural centre or close to it that was important in the success of the Khomeini revolutionк Of no less importance was the fact that highly mobile modernized occupational and proй fessional groupsи which developedи to no small extentи as a result of the processes of modernizationи and which were controlled by the Shahи were barred from any autonoй mous access to the new political center or participation in it—very much against the premises inherent in these processesк Such groups were especially visible in Turkeyи India and Pakistanи and in many of the Muslim Diasporas in Europe—but they were also important in other Muslim or South эsian societiesк яhapter сц яontemporary Globalization and New яivilizational Formations | ннп These groups often find themselves in a situation of social anomie in which old ways of life have lost their traditional standingк They are caught in the pressure of globalization and of international markets for greater e ciency and are losing their security nets and for whom the programs promulgated by the existing modernizing regimesи are not able to provide meaningful interpretations of the new realityк э very important group which may be highly susceptible to communalйreligious or fundaй mentalist messages are younger generation of seemingly hitherto wellйestablished urban classes who distance themselves from the more secular style of life of their relaй tively successful parentsк юut even more important are the relatively recent members of secondйgeneration immigrants to the larger cities from provincial urban and even some rural centres дEisenstadtи нхххек CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARENAS AND IN THE CONSTITUTION OF HEGEMONIES T he full impact of the processes analyzed above can be understood only in the new historical contextи especially in the changes in the international arenas which have been closely connected with processes of globalization that have been taking place in this periodк The most important aspects of the new international scene wereц firstи shifts in heй gemonies in the international orderч secondи the development of new power relations between different statesч thirdи the emergence of new actorsи institutions and new regulatory arenas and rules in the international arenaк эll of these changes attest to the continual disintegration of the ‘Westphalian’ international order with farйreaching implications for the transformation of political arenasи especially those of the national and revolutionary statesк In the continuous shifts in the relative hegemonic standing of different centres there developed the concomitant growing competitions or contestations between such centres about their presumed hegemonic standingк Secondи there developed continual contestations between different societies and sectors about their place in the international order—and the concomitant increasing destabilization of many state structures—above all but not only in the different peripheries—all of them contributй ing greatly to the development of the ‘New World Disorder’ дJowittи нххпек The deй velopment of such a disorder was intensified with the demise of the Soviet Unionи the disappearance of the bipolar order of the ‘яold War’ and the relative stability it entailedи and of the disappearance of the ideological confrontation between яommuй nism and the Westк These developments—with only one Superpowerи the USи remainй ннр | Eisenstadt ing—gave rise to greater autonomy of many regional and transйstate frameworks and within these frameworks to new combinations of geopoliticalи cultural and ideological conflicts and struggles over their relations standing and hegemonyи including indeed those between major global powers—the USи the European Unionи postйSoviet Russia and яhinaк Furtherи farйreaching transformations in the power relations in the international order took place around the last decade of the twentieth centuryк During the first two decades after the fall of the Soviet Unionи the United States was not only the single superpower but also the almost nonйcontested hegemonи in both military and ecoй nomic termsи of the neoйliberal economic orderк This status was epitomized by the Washington яonsensus being aggressively pursued by the major international agenй cies such as the International Monetary Fund and the World юankк юut the situation has greatly changed with the onset of the second postйSoviet decadeк In this decadeи postйSoviet Russiaи яhina and to a smaller extent India and юrazilи became much more independent players in the international economic orderи pursuing more independent policiesи pursuing their own geopolitical as well as economic interestsи generating changes in the balance of regional geopolitical and economic formations challenging the эmerican hegemonyи as well as the premises of the Washington яonsensusк эll these tendencies were intensified attendant on the international financial crises which developed from оммф on—which shattered and transformed most of the hitherto preй dominant arrangements for regulating power relations in the international economic and political arenasк INTERCIVILIZATIONAL SETTINGS— ANTI-GLOBALIZATION MOVEMENTS AND TRANSFORMATION OF MOVEMENTS AND IDEOLOGIES OF PROTEST э ll these processes provided the background for the crystallization of new civiй lizational frameworksк One of the most important manifestations of the new civilizational framework that developed attendant on all the processes anaй lyzed above has indeed been the close interweaving between the numerous antiйgloй balization movements and the new types of orientations and movements of protest that developed from the late sixties of the twentieth centuryк While intercivilizational ‘antiйglobalization’ or antiйhegemonic tendencies combined with an ambivalent atй titude to the cosmopolitan centres of globalization developed in most historical cases of globalization—be it in the Hellenisticи Romanи the яhinese яonfucian or Hinduisticи in ‘classical’ Islamicи as well as early modern ones—yet on the contemporary scene яhapter сц яontemporary Globalization and New яivilizational Formations | ннс they become intensified and transformedк Firstи they became widespread especially via the media throughout the worldк Secondи they became highly politicizedи interwoй ven with fierce contestations formulated in highly political ideological termsк Thirdи they entailed a continual reconstitution in a new global contextи of collective identiй ties and contestations between themк Fourthи the reinterpretations and appropriations of modernity дgiving rise to new interйcivilizational orientations and relationsе were attempts by these actors to decouple radical modernity from Westernizationи and to take away from the ‘West’и from the original Western ‘Enlightenment’—and even Romantic programs—the monopoly of modernityч to appropriate modernity and to define it in their own termsи often above all in highly transformed civilizational termsк э central component of this discourse was a highly ambivalent attitude to the Westи above all to the USи its predominance and hegemony most fully manifested in the worldwide expansion дincluding many European countriesе of strong antiйэmerican movementsк эll these developments were perhaps most clearly visible in the various new Diaй sporas and virtual communities and networksк It was indeed within these virtual comй munities and networks that there developed extensive and highly transformed intenй sified ‘reactions’ to the processes of globalizationи especially to the hegemonic claims of the differentи often competing centers of globalizationи attestingи to follow эrjun эppadurai’s felicitous expressionи ‘the power of small numbers’ дэppaduraiи оммте and constituting one of the most volatile and highly inflammatory components on the global sceneч as well as an important factor in the transformation of interйcivilizational relations in the contemporary sceneи often promulgating visions of clashes of civilizaй tionsк One of the most important manifestations of the new civilizational framework that developed attendant on all the processes analyzed above has indeed been the close interweaving between these processes and the new types of orientations and moveй ments of protest that have developed since the late sixties of the twentieth century дEisenstadt оммтек Movements and symbols of protest continued indeed to play a very important central role in the political and cultural arenas—as they did in the constitution and deй velopment of modern states—but their structureи as well as their goals of visions have been continually reinforced by the processes of globalizationк The most important among these movements were the new student and antiйдVietnamе movements of the late нхтмs—the famous ‘movements of нхтф’и which continued in highly transformed way in the great variety of movements that have developed since thenк These moveй ннт | Eisenstadt ments and orientations went beyond the ‘classical’ model of the nation state and of the ‘classical’ or liberalи national and socialist movementsи and they developed in two seemingly opposite but in fact often overlapping or crossйcutting directionsк On the one handи there developed various ‘postйmodern’и ‘postйmaterialist’ movements such as the women’sи ecological and antiйglobalization movementsч on the other handи many movements promoted very particularistic localи regionalи ethnic cultural autonoй mous movements that were very aggressive and ideological in spiritк эmong differй ent sectors of the dispossessed there also blossomed various religiousйfundamentalist and religiousйcommunal movements that promulgated conceptions of which identity was supreme above all othersк The themes promulgated by these movements were often presented or perceived as the harbingers of farйreaching changes being spawned by the contemporary culй tural and institutional sceneи indeed possibly also of the exhaustion of the entire clasй sical program of modernity entailed farйreaching transformationsи both in internal state and international arenasк In turn these themes of protest spawned the revoluй tionary imagination and thus were constitutive of the development of the modern social order and above all indeed of the modern and revolutionary statesк The common core of the distinctive characteristics of these new movementsи atй testing to their difference from the ‘classical’ onesи has been first the transfer of the central focus of protest orientations from the centers of the nation and revolutionй ary states and from the constitution of ‘national’ and revolutionary collectivities as the charismatic bearers of the vision of modernity into various diversified arenas of which the by now transformed nation states was only oneч secondи the concomitant weakening of the ‘classical’ revolutionary imaginaire as a major component of protestч thirdи the development of new institutional frameworks in which these options were exercisedч and fourthи the development of new visions of interйcivilizational relationsк яontrary to the basic orientations of the earlierи ‘classical’ movementsи the new movements of protestи were oriented to what one scholar has defined as the extension of the systemic range of social life and participationи manifest in demands for growing participation in workи in different communal frameworksи citizen movementsи and the likeк Perhaps the initial simplest manifestation of change in these orientations was the shift from the emphasis on the increase in the standard of life which was so characй teristic of the нхсмs as the epitome of continuous technologicalйeconomic progress to that of ‘quality of life’—a transformationи which has been designated in the нхумs as one from materialist to postйmaterialist valuesк In Habermas’ днхфхе words these movements moved from focusing on problems of distributions to an emphasis on the яhapter сц яontemporary Globalization and New яivilizational Formations | нну ‘grammar of life’ дTaylorи оммуц охх–смсек One central aspect of these movements was the growing emphasisи especially within those which developed among sectors disй possessed by processes of globalizationи on the politics of identityч on the constitution of new religiousи ethnic and local collectivities promulgating in narrowи particularist themes often in terms of exclusivist cultural identity—often formulated in highly agй gressive termsк яlosely related to these processes was the transformation of the utopianи espeй cially transcendentalи orientations whether of the totalistic ‘Jacobin’ utopian ones that were characteristic of many of the revolutionary movementsи or the more static utopian visions which promulgated a flight from various constraints and tensions of modern societyк The focus of the transcendental utopian orientations shifted from the centers of the nation state and overall politicalйnational collectivities to more hetй erogeneous or dispersed arenasи to different ‘authentic’ forms of lifeйworldsи often in various ‘multicultural’ and ‘postйmodern’ directionsк In the discourse attendant these developmentsи above all in the Westи but spreadй ing very quickly beyond itи there developed a strong emphasis on multiculturalism as a possible supplement or substitute to that of the hegemony of the homogeneous modern nationйstate model and as possibly displacing itк New Intercivilizational Relationsи эntiйGlobalization Tendencies and Movementsи Global яonfrontationsи эttempts at эppropriation of Modernity The crucial differences from the point of view of civilizational orientations beй tweenи the major ‘classical’ national and religiousи especially reformistи movementsи and the new contemporary communalи religious and above all fundamentalist moveй mentsи—all of which were closely connected with the constitution of the new virtual communities—stand out above all with respect to their attitude to the premises of the cultural and political program of modernity and to the Westк They constitute part of a set of much wider developments which have been taking place throughout the worldи in Muslimи Indian and юuddhist societiesи seemingly continuingи yet indeed in a markedly transformed wayи the contestations between different earlier reformist and traditional religious movements that developed throughout nonйWestern societiesк These developments signaled farйreaching changes from the earlier reformist and religious movements that developed throughout nonйWestern societies from the nineteenth century to the presentк Within these contemporary antiйglobal movements confrontation with the West does not take the form of searching to become incorpoй rated into the modern hegemonic civilization on its termsи but rather to appropriate ннф | Eisenstadt the new international global scene and modernity for themselvesи in their own termsи in terms of their traditionsк These movements do indeed promulgate a markedly confrontational attitude to the Westи to what is conceived as Westernи and attempts to appropriate moderniй ty and the global system on their own nonйWesternи often antiйWesternи termsк This highly confrontational attitude to the Westи to what is conceived as Westernи is in these movements closely related either to the attempts to decouple radically moderй nity from Westernization or to take away from the West the monopoly of modernityи and to appropriate the contemporary sceneи contemporary modernity in terms of viй sions grounded in their own traditionsк They aim to take over as it were the modern program in terms of their own civiй lizational premisesи which are rootedи according to themи in the basicи indeed highly reformulated images and symbols of civilizational and religious identity—very often formulated by them as the universalistic premises of their respective religions or civiliй zationsи and aiming to transform the global scene along such termsк эt the same timeи howeverи the vistas grounded in these traditions have been continually reconstituted under the impact of ‘modern’ programs and couched paraй doxically enough in terms of the discourse of modernity in the contemporary sceneк Indeed these discourses and the discussions around them resemble in many ways the discourse of modernity as it developed from its very beginning in the very cenй tres of the modernities in Europeи including farйreaching criticisms of the predominant Enlightenment program of modernity and its tensions and antinomiesк Thusи for inй stanceи many of the criticisms of the Enlightenment project as made by Sayyid Qutbи possibly the most eminent fundamentalist Islamic theologianи are in many ways very similar to the major religious and ‘secular’ critics of Enlightenment from de Maistreи the romanticsи the many populist Slavophiles in яentral and Eastern Europeи and in general those whoи in яharles Taylor’s words emphasized the ‘expressivist dimension of human experience’и then movingи of courseи through Nietzsche up to Heideggerк Orи in other wordsи these different antiglobal and antiйWestern movements and ideй ologies reinforce in their own terms the basic tensions and antinomies of modernityи attesting—perhaps in a paradoxical way—that they constitute components of a new common global civilizational framework rooted in the program of modernityи but also going beyond itк эnother very important component of the contemporary civilizational scene atй testing to the fact that different religions are now acting in a common civilizational яhapter сц яontemporary Globalization and New яivilizational Formations | ннх setting is the changes in the relations between the different—especially the ‘major’— religionsк яompetition and struggles between religions became very often vicious— yet at the same time there developed strong tendencies to the development of comй mon encouraging interfaith meetings and encounters focused on their relations to some of the premises of the new civilizational framework rooted in the original proй gram of modernity and on the possibility of cooperation between them – but indeed going beyond itк Such attempts at the reformulation of civilizational premises have been takй ing place not only in these movementsи but also—even if perhaps in less dramatic forms—in new institutional formations such as the European Unionи in different local and regional frameworksи as well as in the various attempts by the different ‘periphй eries’—as for instance in the discourse on эsian valuesи to contest the Westernи esй pecially эmericanи hegemonyи as well as to forge their own constitutive modernitiesк These reformulations of rules and premises have also been taken up by many develй opments in the ‘popular’ cultural arenas challenging the seeming predominance of the эmerican visionк Thus giving rise to distinct new transйstate Indian and East эsian media productions and regionalи diasporic and even global spheres of influenceк The debates and confrontations in which these movements or actors engage and confront each other may often be formulated in ‘civilizational’ termsи but these very terms—indeed the very term ‘civilization’ as constructed in such a discourse—are alй ready couched in the language of modernityи in totalisticи very often essentialisticи and absolutizing terms derived from the basic premises of the discourse of modernityи its tensions and antinomiesи even if it can often draw on older religious traditionsк When such clashes or contestations are combined with politicalи military or economic strugй gles and conflicts they can indeed become very violentк Indeedи at the same timeи the combination of the farйreaching changes in the inй ternational arena and the distinct characteristics of the contemporary processes of globalization with the changes in the structure of the international arena has given rise to the multiplication and intensification of aggressive movements and interйciviliй zational contestations and encountersк Indeed among various antiйglobal movementsи of special importance was the multiplicationи extension and intensification of highly aggressive terrorist movementsи which became closely interwoven with international and intercivilizational contestaй tions and encountersк эlready in the first period of the post дSecondе World War eraи a central component of the international scene was the growth of revolutionary and terй ном | Eisenstadt rorist groups and this component became even more central being interwoven with the crystallization of new international and intercivilizational orientationsи new patй terns of intercivilizational relationsк When these transformations became connected with increasing confrontations in many societiesи both in localи as well as in global scenes and arenasи and with politicalи military or economic struggles and conflicts they can indeed become very violentч they may become a central player in connection with movements of independence of different regional contestationsи what Gк Münkler доммпе has defined as nonйsymmetric warsи in contrast with the symmetric wars beй tween nationйstates in the framework of the Westphalian orderи which became a conй tinual component of the international order and in which such movements played a central roleк REFERENCES эppaduraiи эк оммтк Fear of Small Numbersц эn Essay on the Geography of эngerк Durhamц Duke University Pressк Eisenstadtи Sк Nк нхххк Fundamentalismи Sectarianism and Revolutionц The Jacobin Dimension of Modernityк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Eisenstadtи Sк оммтк The Great Revolutions and the яivilizations of Modernityк Leidenц юrillк Habermasи Jк нхфхк The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphereк Oxfordц Polity Pressк Jowittи Kк нххпк New World Disorderц The Leninist Extinctionк юerkeleyи яэц University of яalifornia Pressк Münklerи Hк оммпк Über den Kriegц Stationen der Kriegstgeschichte in Spiegel ihrer theoretischen Reflexionк Weilerwistц Velbrückк Taylorи яhк оммук э Secular эgeк яambridgeи Mэц Harvard University Pressк яhapter сц яontemporary Globalization and New яivilizational Formations | нон Chapter 6 THE ‘RETURN’ OF RELIGION AND THE CONFLICTED CONDITION OF WORLD ORDER Roland Robertson The question of the return of religion to the study of world politics and international relations is considered in terms of the neglect of religion since the Peace of Westphalia. This neglect has largely occurred because of the primacy given to changes and events in the West, particularly since the formal separation of church and state and its imposition on or emulation by Eastern societies. The recent concern with globalization has provided the opportunity to undertake historical discussion in new perspectives which overcome the Western ‘normality’ of the absence of religion from Realpolitik. Moreover, it is argued that much of the neglect of religion in work on world affairs has largely been the product of the inaccurate perception of ongoing secularization. The overall discussion is framed by some objections to the limiting consequences of disciplinarity. Keywords: religionи globalizationи disciplinarityи Realpolitikи international relationsк яhapter тц The ‘Return’ of Religion and The яonflicted яondition of World Order | ноп W INTRODUCTION hile this paper is primarily concerned with the conditions that are giving rise to the conspicuousness of religion in contemporary international politicsи it should be said at the outset that the recent controversy surrounding the alleged evils of religion—notably in the UK and the USэ—is less than marginal to this focusк This is because much of the polemical ‘shouting’ that has issued from the antiй religiousи or antiйGodи camps has undoubtedly been much influenced by the overlapй ping presence of religion in intranationalи transnationalи and international politicsк эt the same time the militancy ofи for exampleи Richard Dawkins and яhristopher Hitchй ens has certainly contributed significantly to the presence of religion in the minds of contemporary politiciansи journalists and academics дDawkinsи оммтч Hitchensи оммуек эnother big controversy has also played a part in subduing the significance of religion in international affairs—namelyи the significance of religion in the эmerican policy toй ward Israelк It has become very clear in recent years that this is a subject which many avoidи for fear of arousing ethnic passion that can effectively damage academic caй reersи at least in the UK and the USэк Howeverи there is currently a strong move within sociologyи philosophy and reй lated disciplines away from atheistic secularismк This shift against the latterи as well as proliferating critiques of the idea of rampant secularizationи is of great consequence for the general comprehension of global trends and circumstances дRobertson оммуч McLennanи оммтч Robertson в яhiricoи нхфсек What follows is divided into two sectionsк The first deals with what can be called the ‘disciplinary’ worldи while the second may be called the ‘real’ worldк There are most certainly oversimplifications involved in this delineationи not least because what was once a matter of disciplinarity then becomes central to realityк Put another wayи while disciplinarity is a constructedи ‘artificial’ way of comprehending realityи at the same time reality is partly constituted by disciplinarityк The complexity of this problem cannot be pursued here—not merely for reasons of spaceи but also because it has beenи and will continue to beи an intractable one in all of the sciencesи both natural and humanк Many philosophers have sought over the centuriesи in different civilizaй tional contextsи to solve this epistemological andлor ontological problem and many have claimed to have resolved itк In full recognition of various contributions of the latter kindи in this paper the author will simply take the problem for granted and deal with it in a very simple wayк нор | Robertson э THE PROBLEM OF DISCIPLINARITY t least since the late нфth or early нхth centuries interpretation andлor analysis of the world haveи for the greater partи been undertaken from increasingly speй cialized and compartmentalized perspectiveк э vast amount has been written about the originsи the histories and the genealogies of various disciplinesи as well as variations in such from society to societyи region to regionи and civilization to civiliй zationк Nonethelessи it should be stipulated here that the present focus is primarily a Western one and that it involves no systematic attempt to be specific about the civilizational structuring of particular academic disciplinesч nor of their trajectories or configurations within different societiesк What has to be firmly stated is that each disй cipline in the western academyи as well as in the primary and secondary sectors of school systemsи has rested upon rhetorical constructions and academic contingenй ciesк Thus the idea that disciplines reflect the natural condition of life is without any foundationк One has to make this point stronglyи precisely because it seems that many academics and intellectuals—and not least their bureaucratic administrators—do beй lieve that disciplines reflect or grasp realityи although some of these may also grant that soйcalled reality is partly constituted by disciplinarityк In spite of these considerations it should be said that throughout the last century and a half or so various individuals and schools of thought have attempted to overй come or lay out the preconditions and sustaining infrastructures of the disciplines on a universalistic basisк For exampleи яomte made an extended attempt to connect systematically all disciplinesи Marx also approached the same issue дbutи of courseи from a very different perspectiveеи as did John Stuart Millк The same might be said of Freud and certainly this is true of the rise of General Systems Theory in the нхпмs and also of the work of Talcott Parsons during the midйtwentieth centuryк Foucault explored rather thoroughly the basis and forms of disciplinarity in the broadest posй sible sense—which led in his work to the casting of academic discipline as similar to discipline in the penal senseк Increasinglyи during the past twenty years or soи there has been much disciplinary mutationи particularly around the theme of globalizationк Much of the study of the latterи in spite of its enormous fashionabilityи has unfortunately been centred upon the idea of interdisciplinarityк This has been very counterproductive and has served more the bureaucratic interests of academic administrators and powerйseekers within academic professions than it has the enhancement of substantive intellectual progй ressк Specificallyи interdisciplinarity has consolidatedи rather than overcomeи disciplinй ary and professional distinctivenessк For exampleи interdisciplinary collaboration often яhapter тц The ‘Return’ of Religion and The яonflicted яondition of World Order | нос involves the practitioners of two or more disciplines getting together and seeing what each can contribute to a particular topic from their own disciplinary standpointк Whatи on the other handи ideally ought to occur is a direct concern with the substantive issue as opposed to a rehearsal of the identity of particular disciplinesк Many enterprises of a soйcalled interdisciplinary nature have entailed little more than each disciplinary representative pronouncing what her or his discipline couldлshould contribute to the topic in questionк Thusи we should turn in the direction of what preferably should be called either crossйdisciplinarity or transйdisciplinarity дalthough cogent claims could and have been made on behalf of ‘counterйdisciplinarity’ and ‘postйdisciplinarity’ек In the case in hand—namely the study of international relationsи or world politicsи in connection with the study of religion—such reflections on the limitations of disciй plinary approaches have contributed mightily to the relative absence of attention to the interpenetration of religion and IR in historical termsк This means that rather than trying to account for the great significance of religion in world politics at the present time—as if religion had suddenly erupted onto the worldйpolitical scene—we would be much better advised to try and account for why the relationship between religion and IR has been grossly neglected for many yearsк Indeedи International Relations as a discipline or subйdiscipline was professionally established without any reference to the significance of religionк While economics has often been called the dull scienceи that label might well be equally applied to IRи at least until fairly recentlyк From the standpoint of those who have been mainly concerned with religionи the obsession with the secularization thesis has served both to insulate the subйdiscipline of the sociology of religion from other disciplinary perspectives and subdue its influй ence in the wider societyк Indeedи for many decadesи sociologists of religion haveи not unironicallyи expressed much regret that their subйdiscipline is marginal to the wider discipline of sociology and have complained in so doing that the findings of the sociology of religion are not taken seriously by political elites and the more intellecй tual elements in the mass mediaк Thusи since the нхтмs individual practitioners of the sociology of religion have only recently been invited to contribute to discussions of political eventsи circumstances and trendsк For much of this period students of religion have been mainly involved in public discussion in relation to controversies surroundй ing religious sects дsometimes called ‘cults’ек Howeverи with the advent of religions of violence sociologists have been called upon increasingly to participate in public debate and give advice to governmentsи particularly since хлннк Similarи but greaterи neglect of religion can be said of the study of world politicsи although there has been an increasing concern with the relation between religion and societal politics during нот | Robertson the same periodк Thus the neglect of religion has been most evident in the study of international relationsк эnother significant factor in the neglect of the involvement of religion in interй national relations is the way in which assumptions have been formed concerning disй tances between particular disciplines or subdisciplinesк For exampleи at the beginning of the twentieth century it was possible for historians and sociologists to say that it was strange to connect the study of religion to the study of economicsк Within a few yearsи howeverи the relationship between religion and the development of capitalй ism had assumed the status of the obviousк Much of this was a consequence of Max Weber’s The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of яapitalism which was first published in нхмрлнхмс дWeberи нхпмек In the particular case at handи many practitioners on the IR side would have askedи only a few years agoи what religion could have to do with their own domain of analysisы Nowи in the early years of the онst century very few would be so daring—perhapsи one might say foolish—as to ask this same questionк Undoubtй edly this has a great deal to do with the present soйcalled war on terror дa term which isи in factи fast retreatingе andи more specificallyи with the problematic thesis as to the clash of civilizations дwhich is also in retreatек To be more preciseи it is the centrality of jihadistи or caliphateи Islam and its opponents—not to speak of its targets—that has been so crucial in the attention to the subject of the present paperк The surprise among the relevant disciplines as to the apparent eruption of Islam onto the world scene as symbolised and expressed by the events of хлнн now seems rather di cult to comprehend дLincolnи оммтек Even most of those who have been studying religion and regretting its marginality within and without the academy seem to have been amazed by хлннк This canи in significant partи be attributed to the insulation of IR from the study of religion and vice versaк On the other handи it should be said that the study of the politicsлreligion connection had been expanding in the last quarter of the омth centuryк This expanding interest almost certainly had much to do with the increasing conй spicuousness of religion within and without nationйstates since the late нхумsк эt that time such events as the coming to power in Nicuragua of the Sandinistasи the complex connection between those opposed to the latterи Iran and the US Republican governй ment дthe soйcalled Iran–яontra affairеч the injection of theocratic ideas into the global arena in the aftermath of the Iranian revolution of нхухч and the rise of the Solidarity movement—heavily backed by the яatholic яhurch—in Poland raisedи so to speak religionи above the parapet for systematic attentionк The spread and intensification of tensions between ‘church’ and state constituted the end of a long era that had begun following the Peace of Westphalia in нтрф which had marked the termination яhapter тц The ‘Return’ of Religion and The яonflicted яondition of World Order | ноу of religious wars within the Westк Prior to the Westphalian settlementи the sacred and the profane were seen to have coexisted—although often problematicallyк Westphalia marked the end of such coexistenceи in such a way as to largely separate religion from politicsк The consummation of that trend was the Declaration of Independence in the naй scent эmerican Republic in нуути with its commitment to the constitutional separaй tion of church and stateк This rapidly produced globeйwide implicationsи even more important than in the USэ itself дэrmitageи оммуек Moreoverи it was not a coincidence that it was in this same period that Jeremy юentham pronouncedи in нуфхи the need for a specialised focus on international relationsк Few scholars have recognized the significance of this conjunctionк Howeverи this was a Western phenomenon which wasи nonethelessи imposed uponи or emulated byи a number of эsian societies during the late нхth and the first half of the омth centuriesк The variety of political orientations to attempts to disentangle religion and politics—or church and state—cannot be exй plored hereк Su ce it to say that in East эsia one finds that whereas in яhina the demise of religion was taken to be a prerequisite of a modern societyи in Japan there was a serious attempt to emulate the эmerican separation of ‘church’ from stateк In Japan State Shinto was established in the Meiji period by denying that it constituted a religion in the Western sense of the wordк In contrastи the яhinese political elite and leading intellectuals took the lead from such Western philosophers as юertrand Rusй sell and insisted that there was no significant place for religion in a modern society дRobertsonи нххоц espк ннс–нофи нрт–нтпч also Gongи нхфрек The areas of the world which most strongly resisted both of these trends wereи overwhelminglyи Islamicк In view of this it is not surprising that the ‘return’ of religion to the international arena should have come in the form of a conflict between Islam and much of the rest of the worldи particularly those parts of the latter that were seen to be particularly responsible either for the separation of religion and politics and church and stateи or the imposition of state organized atheismи as in яommunist reй gimesк The considerable interest in the theme of globalization has undoubtedly drawn attention to the significance of religion in world politics and international relationsк In arguing this I am emphasizing strongly the multidimensionality of globalizationк Rather than conceiving of the latter in the form of neoliberalismи thus giving it a disй tinctively economic glossи I regard it as having politicalи socialи and cultural dimenй sionsк This type of broad conception of globalization has constituted the basis of an everйexpanding interest in globalи or worldи historyк This revival in the study of world ноф | Robertson history is significantly different from the kind of Westйskewed interest in the latter that thrived at the end of the нхth and the beginning of the омth centuriesк The new global history—at least as it is practised in the West—is not anywhere near so Eurocentricк In fact has not infrequently been antiйEurocentricк This means that in many societies and world regions differentи often competingи paradigms and images of global history are being presented and promotedк Manyи if not mostи of these involve situating a parй ticular society or region at the centre of world historyк яlearlyи this has a great deal to do with the present globeйwide concern with national identitiesк In the frame of globalization this has come about for two main reasonsк On the one handи globalization involves the increasing connectivity of the global whole— sometimes expressed as a compression of the entire worldи producing a circumstance in which each societyи region or civilization is under constraint to identify and proй claim its own uniquenessк On the other handи globalization also involves increasing global consciousness—betterи selfйconsciousnessи in the sense thatи with periodic inй terruptionsи the world as it increasingly has become ‘one place’к This frequently neй glected feature of globalization enhancesи problematicallyи the sense of humanity being oneк Needless to sayи in recent timesи the actuality of pandemicsи epidemicsи climate change—as well as the rise of religions concerned with ‘the endйtime’—has greatly consolidated this heavily contested onenessк In factи much of the contempoй rary globeйwide concern with religious and civilizational conflict is centred upon the issue of religioйcultural hegemonyк In the wake of the rise of a new form of global history there has also arisen a fastй growing interest in the subject of imperialism and its great relevance to the theme of globalizationк э good example of this is John Darwin’s bookи эfter Tamerlaneц The Global History of Empireк Darwin argues that ‘Tamerlane was the last of the series of “worldйconquerors” in the tradition of эttila and Genghis Khanи who strove to bring the whole of Eurasia—the “world island”—under the rule of a single vast empire’ дDarwinи оммуч cfк юaylyи оммоек эfter нрмс there soon began the exploration of the sea routes that became what Darwin calls ‘the nerves and arteries of great maritime empires’ дDarwinи оммтц xч Fernandezйэrmestoи оммтек The European expansion after Tamerlane led to ‘the rise of the West’и but when the European empire dissolved— in the period lasting from the beginning of World War Two until the midйtwentieth century—the story of world history began to be retoldи particularly with the rise of the soйcalled Third Worldк эs Darwin saysи this retelling cannot be written without a fully global view of the pastк He cogently quotes Teggartи who in his Rome and яhina argued that ‘the study of the past can become effective only when it is fully realized that all peoples have historiesи that these histories run concurrently and in the same яhapter тц The ‘Return’ of Religion and The яonflicted яondition of World Order | нох world and that the act of comparing them is the beginning of knowledge’ дDarwinи оммуц xiч Teggartи нхпхч Robertsonи нххфек This suggestion of the need to coordinate interйunit relations with comparative analysis isи perhapsи the most important step forй ward that we must make in the study of international relationsк This has been the main methodological consequence of the widespread concern with globalizationк Much has recently been written about the need for new approaches to the latterи but virtually none of this has dealt with this analytic desideratumи or with the substantive relevance of religion and cultureк Undoubtedly the ‘terror wars’ that wereи in a senseи ‘scripted’ by Huntington’s яlash of яivilizationsи have brought religion—via radically politicized Islam—into a centralи but highly problematic positionи in world affairsк юut little has been seen of the necessary analytic readjustments дHuntingtonи нххтек On the IR sideи this has much to do with the soйcalled positivism of the disciplineи which has largely eschewed any concern with such mattersи particularly in the USэк Nye’s concept of soft power is a rather meagre acknowledgement of these kinds of consideration дNyeи оммрек Even though IR has continued since its inception in the early нхомs to display continuing controversies about Realpolitik it has nonetheless been overwhelmingly centred upon ‘realistic’ motifsк Many wouldи perhapsи contest this strong argumentи but it is here claimed that—at least until recently—that has been the caseк The rising attention to international societyи global civil societyи and global society by what юuй zan calls ‘the English School’ contrasts with the emphasis on Realpolitikк юuzan seeks to establish a view of world society as ‘a concept to capture the nonйstate side of the international system’ orи to put it more elaboratelyи to ‘create a synthesis between the structural elements of the юullлVincent side of English school theory about internaй tional and world societyи and Wendt’s… social theory of international politics’к In so doing юuzan speaks disparagingly about ‘the analytical vacuousness of “the ‘G’ word”’ дюuzanи оммрц пч see also Wendtи нхххек дWendtи of courseи refers to the concept of globalizationке Howeverи despite some praiseworthy attempts to bring back the social into IRи юuzan dangerously simplifies the concept of globalizationк This is soи largely because he treats the latter concept in primarily political termsк The unidimensional tendencies of many contributions to globalization theory have severely limited its analytical and empirical purchaseи even though юuzan himself disй plays considerable interest in some sociological conceptions of world society outside conventional IRк For exampleи he attendsи appropriatelyи to the work of the soйcalled Stanford school дled by John Meyerе which has promoted an important extraйIR view of the world as a wholeк In the processи on the other handи he has entirely neglected the major contributions of the Stanford school to the study of religionк Undoubtedlyи нпм | Robertson there is a failure in the meeting of minds in so far as he rightly accuses members of the Stanford school of being either unaware or unwilling to consider the work of such people as Martin Wight and Hedley юull in the English school of IRк юuzan rightly emphasizes that one—if not the—central concerns of the work of the Stanford soй ciological school is that of global cultureк Howeverи he overlooks the fact that a close relation of the Stanford school has been what used to be called the Pittsburgh schoolи whose major figures included Roland Robertsonи Frank Lechnerи Peter юeyer and Vicй tor Roudometofк In the works of such sociologists religion has been absolutely centralк эnother lacuna in юuzan’s approach is the neglect of the fact that some representaй tives of the sociological approach to globalization deny thatи that process is greatly concerned with what has conventionally been called microйsociological aspects of what Robertson has conceptualized as the global field дRobertsonи нххоц ос–пнек In articulating his ideas about the latterи Robertson has typologically divided the world into four major elementsц individual states дnational or otherwiseеи the system of states дor nationйstatesеи humanityч andи not leastи individual selvesк The principal reason for including the latter within the frame of globalization is that it is completely imposй sible—when one seriously thinks about it—to exclude individuals from the worldЭ Nonethelessи the idea that globalization is primarily a macro topic continuesи in spite of anthropologists and sociologists insisting that globalization occurs interpersonallyи that personal interaction can have very large consequences and that globalization ocй curs on the streetи in the supermarketи in marital and other relationshipsи among but a few examplesк э great deal has recently been written in the millennial genreк This can be seen in both utopian and dystopian formsк For the most partи the present global millennial concern is more of the latter than the former kindи certainly in the Western portion of the worldк It is in terms of this standpoint that it is particularly necessary to consider the relationship between religion and IR дRobertsonи оммуек The millennial and apocalyptic view of the ‘terror wars’и is at the centre of what may be called the religiocultural turn in world politicsи specifically the relationship beй tween radically politicized Islam and the ‘modern West’к Indeedи the degree to which this global conflict between the two major actors on either side—namely alйQaeda and the юush regime in the USэ—has assumed heavily religious terms cannot reй sponsibly be questionedк Howeverи there are those who still cling implausibly to the contention that this conflict is ‘really’ about oilи water and other material factorsк The insistence on reducing all phenomena to a single factor isи however—it should be noted—a distinctively Western dispositionк The failure to recognize that all human phenomena and interaction are—to put it in ‘Western’ terms—multidimensionalи or яhapter тц The ‘Return’ of Religion and The яonflicted яondition of World Order | нпн multifactorial has beenи throughout the course of Occidental historyи an egregious limitationк Looked at from another angleи we should not now be misled by the fact that communist regimesи for exampleи have claimed that they have considered interй national relations and world politics in ‘atheistic’ termsк Needless to sayи virtually all communist or neoйcommunist regimes have claimed to be committed to either the complete elimination of religion or its totalitarian controlк юutи from a su ciently soй phisticated perspectiveи one can surely see that such ideological commitments have been framed historically by ancient religious traditionsк In the most obvious case of Marxist яommunism the religious or theological context of such is well documentedк In any caseи within forms of orthodox Marxism this embeddedness has been clearly acknowledged—for exampleи by Engels in his writing about European peasant utopiaй nism as a forerunner of working class militancy and in Marx’s contention that theolй ogy provides the basic categories for theoretical struggles дюurleighи оммтaи оммтbек эt the same timeи it has not been su ciently recognized that the major oppoй nent of яommunism also has had a very strong millennial culture дGrayи нххфц нсуч оммуч Harringtonи нхфтч Reynoldsи оммоц орп–отмек Orи at leastи the millennial thrust of эmerican culture—at least since the late нфth century—has rarely been analysed and represented from an international affairs standpointк In this specific senseи IRи as well as the sociology of religionи have both ‘developed’ as forms of false consciousnessк It should be reiterated that the obsession with the secularization thesis among a дdeй cliningе majority of sociologists of religion has been as responsible for the neglect of politics л IR as has the neglect of religion from the latter sideк T CONCLUSION he main concern in this article has been with the way in which religion has apй peared in recent years to be a crucial theme in world politics and international relationsи not least because religion appears to be at the centre of some of the world’s most formidable global conflictsк It has been argued that the new global hisй tory that has developed in the context of the disputed concern with globalization proй vides us with an opportunity to comprehend howи on the one handи religion has been greatly overlooked in the interrogation of world politics and howи on the other handи the study of religion—particularly in its sociological form—has similarly neglected inй ternational relations because of its continuous and misplaced concern with secularizaй tionк In sumи on both sides of the equation there has been much mutual neglectк This has been largely attributed to the structure of academic disciplinesи particularly in the Western worldк нпо | Robertson REFERENCES эrmitageи Dк оммук The Declaration of Independenceц э Global Historyк Londonц Harvard University Pressк юaylyи як эк оммок ‘эrchaic’ and ‘Modern’ Globalization in the Eurasian and эfrican эrenaи cк нусм–нфсмк In Hopkinsи эк Gк дedкеи Globalization in World History дppк ру–упек Londonц Pimlicoк юurleighи Mк оммтaк Earthly Powersц Religion and Politics in Europe from the French Revolution to the Great Warк Londonц Harperяollinsк юurleighи Mк оммтbк Sacred яausesц Religion and Politics from the European Dictators to эl Qaedaк Londonц Harperяollinsк юuzanи юк оммрк From International to World Societyы English School Theory and the Social Structure of Globalizationк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Darwinи Jк оммук эfter Tamerlaneц The Global History of Empireк Londonц эllen Laneк Dawkinsи Rк оммтк The God Delusionк Londonц юantamк Fernandezйэrmestoи Fк оммтк Pathfindersц э Global History of Explorationк Oxfordц Oxford University Pressк Gongи Gк нхфрк The Standard of ‘яivilization’ in International Societyк Oxfordц яlarendon Pressк Grayи Jк нххфк Global Utopias and яlashing яivilizationsц Misunderstanding the Presentк International эffairs урц нрх–нтрк Grayи Jк оммук юlack Massц эpocalyptic Religion and the Death of Utopiaк Londonц эllen Laneк Harringtonи Mк нхфтк The Dream of Deliverance in эmerican Politicsк New Yorkц Knopfк Hitchensи яhк оммук God is Not Greatк Londonц эllen and Unwinк Huntingtonи Sк Pк нххтк The яlash of яivilizations and the Remaking of World Orderк New Yorkц Simon Schusterк McLennanи Gк оммтк Towards Postйsecular Sociologyы Sociology рнц фсу–фумк Lincolnи юк оммтк Holy Terrorsц Thinking about Religion after September ннк яhicagoц University of яhicago Pressк Nyeи Jк Sки Jrк оммрк Soft Powerц The Means to Success in World Politicsк New Yorkц Public эffairsк Reynoldsи Dк оммок эmerican Globalismц Massи Motion and the Multiplier Effectк In Hopkinsи эк Gк дedкеи Globalization in World History дppк орп–отмек Londonц Pimlicoк Robertsonи Rк нххок Globalizationц Social Theory and Global яultureк Londonц Sageк Robertsonи Rк нххфк The New Global Historyц History in a Global эgeк яultural Values оц птф– пфрк Robertsonи Rк оммук Global Millennialismц э Postйmortem on Secularizationк In юeyerи Pки and юeamanи Lк дedsкеи Globalizationи яulture and Religion дppк х–прек Leidenц юrillк Robertsonи Rки and яhiricoи Jк нхфск Humanityи Globalization and Worldwide Religious Resurgenceц э Theoretical Explorationк Sociological эnalysis ртц онх–орок яhapter тц The ‘Return’ of Religion and The яonflicted яondition of World Order | нпп Teggartи Fк нхпхк Rome and яhinaк юerkeleyи яэц University of яalifornia Pressк Weberи Mк нхпмк The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of яapitalismк Londonц эllen and Unwinк Wendtи эк нхххк Social Theory of International Politicsк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк нпр | Robertson Chapter 7 CULTURE AND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE GLOBAL SYSTEM Ervin Laszlo The values and associated behaviors of the dominant culture of the contemporary world gave rise to a globally extended system that is not sustainable in its present form. If a cataclysmic breakdown is to be averted, the influential culture that shapes today’s world must change. Humanity can no longer afford to be dominated by a narrowly materialist and manipulative culture focused on ego-centered, company-centered, or nation-centered short-term benefit, with no regard to the wider system that frames existence on this planet. Consciously moving toward a harmonious system of cooperative societies focused on the shared objective of sustaining the systems of life on the planet is an urgent necessity. To this end a mutation is needed in the cultures of the contemporary world, so as to create the values and aspirations that would bring together today’s individually diverse and largely self-centered societies in the shared mission of ensuring the sustainability of the global system of humanity in the framework of the biosphere. The global system is highly diverse today, but it is insufficiently coordinated. Creating a higher level of unity within its diversity is intrinsically feasible: it calls for system-maintaining cooperation among the diverse societies that make up the system. Keywords: sustainabilityи cultural mutationи global warmingи diversityи cooperationк яhapter уц яulture and the Sustainability of the Global System | нпу THE CULTURAL ROOTS OF THE UNSUSTAINABILITY OF THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD T oday’s socioeconomic and ecological world system is structurally unstable and dynamically unsustainableк This condition has been created by practices orientй ed by the values and perceptions of a dominant layer of societyк These values and perceptions have now become largely obsoleteк For exampleц Nature is inexhaustible. The longйstanding belief that the Earth is an inexhaustible source of resources and an inexhaustible sink of wastes leads to the overйmining of natural resources and overloading of the biosphere’s regenerative cyclesк The biosphere is a mechanism. The belief that we can engineer the biosphere like a building or a bridge is producing a plethora of unforeseen and vexing sideйeffectsи such as the destruction of natural balances and the disappearance of myriad living speciesк Life is a struggle where the fittest survives. This application of Darwin’s theory of natural selection to society is mistaken in principle дDarwin did not mean by the ‘fitй test’ the strongest and most aggressiveи but the most adaptive and cooperativeеи and it is dangerousц it produces a growing gap between rich and poorи and legitimates the use of force on the premise that the possession of power is the natural attribute of a species that is fit to surviveк The market distributes benefits. The free marketи governed by эdam Smith’s prinй ciple of the ‘invisible hand’и is believed to distribute the benefits of economic activity in societyк Howeverи the poverty and marginalization of nearly half of the world popuй lation indicates that under current conditions trust in this belief is unfoundedк The inй visible hand does not operateц the holders of wealth and power garner for themselves a disproportionate share of the material benefits resulting from economic activityк Some of the current beliefs produce paradoxical conditionsк • Millions are suffering from overeating and obesityи while a thousand million go hungryч • Six million children die annually of starvationи and нсс million are overweightч • There are millions of intelligent women ready to play a responsible role in societyи but they do not get a fair chance in educationи businessи politicsи and civic lifeч нпф | Laszlo • In order to save on the cost of laborи millions are put out of workи wasting human capital that would be essential to tackle the socialи economicи and environmental problems now faced by humanityч • Vast herds of animals are brought into the world for the sole purpose of being slaughtered for meatи something thatи apart from its questionable ethical and health implicationsи is wasting an enormous amount of water and grainи resources urgently needed to ensure nutrition for human populationsч • The problems of the human community call for longйterm solutionsи but the criterion of success in the business world is the bottom line in annual or semiй annual corporate profitйandйloss statementsч • The planet is bathed in solar energyи and technologies are onйline to tap the energy of windи tidesи hot subsurface rocksи biomassи and animal waste and sideй productsи yet the world continues to run on polluting and finite fossil fuels and inherently dangerous nuclear powerч • Hiйtech weapons that are more dangerous than the conflicts they are intended to cope with are developed and stockpiled at vast investment of money and human and natural resourcesи andч • The ineffectiveness of military force to achieve economic and political objectives has been demonstrated over and over againи yet the world’s governments spend over анко trillion dollars a year on armsи wars and military establishmentsи and similar amounts on empireйbuilding objectives often disguised as projects of national defense and homeland securityк Such values and beliefsи and the conditionsи to which they give riseи produce mulй tiple strands and forms of unsustainabilityк They are manifest in the contemporary world in the sphere of societyи in that of the economyи as well as in the domain of the ecologyк The Strands of Unsustainability нк Unsustainable conditions in society In the rich countries job security is disappearingи competition is intensifyingи and family life is sufferingк More and more men and women find satisfaction and companй ionship outside rather than within the homeк эnd in the homeи many of the functions of family life are atrophyingи taken over by outside interest groupsк яhild rearing is increasingly entrusted to kindergartens and company or community dayйcare centersк The provision of daily nourishment is shifting from the family kitchen to supermarketsи яhapter уц яulture and the Sustainability of the Global System | нпх prepared food industries and fast food chainsк Leisureйtime activities are colored by the marketing and public relations campaigns of commercial enterprisesк яhildren’s media exposure to TVи video gamesи and ‘adult’ themes is increasingи and it motivates violent and sexually exploitative behaviorк In the United States the rate for first marй riages ending in divorce is fifty percentи and about forty percent of children grow up in singleйparent families for at least part of their childhoodк Social structures are breaking down in both the rich and the poor countriesк In poor countries the struggle for economic survival destroys the traditional extended familyк Women are extensively exploitedи given menial jobs for low payч often they are obliged to leave the home in search of workк Fewer and fewer women have remunerй ated jobs and more and more are forced to make ends meet in the socially and ecoй nomically marginal informal sectorк эccording to the International Labour Organizaй tionи fifty million childrenи for the most part in эfricaи эsiaи and Latin эmericaи are emй ployed for a pittance in factoriesи minesи and on the landк In some countries destitute children are recruited as soldiers and forced into prostitutionи or are forced to venture into the streets as beggarsк ок Unsustainability in the economy The human community is economically polarizedц there is a large and in some regions still growing gap between diverse layers of populationк The gap depresses the quality of life of hundreds of millionsи and reduces the chances of survival of the poorй est and most severely marginalized populationsк a) Wealth distribution. Wealth and income differences have reached staggering proportionsк The combined wealth of the world’s billionaires equals the income of three billion peopleи nearly half of the world’s populationк Eighty percent of the global domestic product belongs to one billionи and the remaining twenty percent is shared by six billionк Poverty has not diminished in absolute numbersк In the poorest countries sevenй tyйeight percent of the urban population subsists under lifeйthreatening circumstancй es—one in three urban dwellers lives in slumsи shanty townsи and urban ghettoesи and nearly one billion are classified as slumйdwellersк Of the seven billion people who now share the planetи нкр billion subsist on the equivalent of less than нкос dollars a day and an additional нкт billion live on less than оксм dollarsк b) Resource use. The richйpoor gap shows up in food and energy consumption as well as in the load placed on natural resourcesк People in North эmericaи Westй нрм | Laszlo ern Europeи and Japan consume нрм per cent of their daily caloric requirementи while populations in countries such as Madagascarи Guyanaи and Laos live on ум per centк The average amount of commercial electrical energy consumed by the эfricans is half a kilowattйhour дkWhе per personч the corresponding average for the эsians and Latin эmericans is о to п kWhи and for the эmericansи Europeansи эustraliansи and Japanese it is ф kWhк The average эmerican burns five tons of fossil fuel per yearи in contrast with the окх tons of the average German and places twice the environmental load of the average Swede on the planetи three times that of the Italianи thirteen times the юrazilianи thirtyйfive times the Indianи and two hundred and eighty times the Haitianк Reducing excessive resource use is made urgent by the rapid growth of the popuй lationк World population has increased from about five billion twentyйtwo years ago to about seven billion todayк Todayи for the first time in historyи in regard to a number of natural resources the rising curve of human demand exceeds the descending curve of natural supplyк Since the end of World War IIи more of the planet’s resources have been consumed than in all of history until thenк Global consumption is nearingи and in some cases has already surpassedи planetary maximaк The production of oilи fishи lumй berи and other major resources has already peakedч forty percent of the world’s coral reefs are goneи and annually about оп million acres of forest are lostк The per capita availability of land for meeting human requirements has shrunk from нхкс acres per person in нхмм to less than с acres todayк Ecologists also speak of ‘peak water’и since the quantity of water suited for human use in the biosphere is rapidly diminishingк The Fourth Global Environment Outlook of the UN Environment Programme estiй mated that satisfying the average resource demand in the world calls for the use of around фкх acres of land per personк дThis figure masks great disparities between rich and poor economiesц resource availability drops to нкоп acres in the poorest countries such as юangladeshи and mounts to оскс acres in the United States and the oilйrich эrab statesке Howeverи фкх acres is more than twice the amount of land that could respond to human use on a sustainable basisц the sustainable ‘Earthйshare’ of every manи woman and child on the planet is рко acres дUNEP nкdкек c) The financial system. The precarious structure of the world’s financial system is a major factor in the unsustainability of the world’s economyк Instability in the financial sector is not a new phenomenonи but it was not widely recognized prior to the credit crunch of оммфк The bubble that burst at that time has led to the loss of over two milй lion jobs in the United States aloneи and resulted in a global reduction of wealth estiй mated at окф trillion dollarsк яhapter уц яulture and the Sustainability of the Global System | нрн The structural unsustainability of the world’s financial system is not uniquely due to the creation and burst of speculative bubblesц it is rooted in the imbalance of inй ternational tradeк эlready in оммси the IMF’s Economic Outlook дIMFи оммсе noted that it is no longer a question of whether the world’s economies will adjustи only how they will adjustк If measures are further delayedи the adjustment could be ‘abrupt’и with hazardous consequences for global tradeи economic developmentи and international securityк пк Unsustainability in the ecology Socialи economicи and financial unsustainability is exacerbated by damages proй duced by human activity in the environmentи resulting in a diminution of the resourcй es effectively available for social and industrial useк a) Water. The amount of water available for per capita consumption is diminishй ingк In нхсм there was a potential reserve of nearly нуиммм mп of freshwater for every person then livingк Since then the rate of water withdrawal has been more than double the rate of population growthи and in consequence in нххх the per capita world water reserves decreased to уипмм mпк Today about oneйthird of the world’s population does not have access to adequate supplies of clean waterи and by омос twoйthirds of the population will live under conditions of critical water scarcityк юy then there may be only рифмм mп of water reserves per personк b) Productive land. There is a progressive loss of productive landк The Food and эgriculture Organization estimates that there are уирхм million acres of high quality cropland available globallyи seventyйone percent of it in the developing worldк This quantity is decreasing due to soil erosionи destructuringи compactionи impoverishй mentи excessive desiccationи accumulation of toxic saltsи leaching of nutritious eleй mentsи and inorganic and organic pollution owing to urban and industrial wastesк Worldwideи но to ну million acres of cropland are lost per yearк эt this rate урн million acres will be lost by midйcenturyи leaving ткту billion acres to support ф to х billion peopleк дThis figure may still be overly optimisticи since the amount of available land will be further reduced by flooding due to a progressive rise in sea levelsке The remaining мкур acres of productive land could only produce food at the bare subsisй tence levelк c) Air. яhanges in the chemical composition of the atmosphere reduce the availй ability of air capable of supporting adequate health levelsк Since the middle of the nineteenth century oxygen has decreased mainly due to the burning of coalи and it нро | Laszlo now dips to nineteen percent of total volume over impacted areas and twelve to sevй enteen percent over major citiesк эt six or seven percent of total volumeи life can no longer be sustainedк эt the same timeи the share of greenhouse gases is growingк Two hundred years of burning fossil fuels and cutting down large tracts of forest has inй creased the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide content from about офм parts per million to over псм parts per millionк эt the same timeи carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphereк During the ом century human activity has injected one terraton of яOо into the biosphereи and is currently injecting another terraton in less than two decadesк The speed with which carbon dioxide is introduced makes it impossible for natural ecosystems to adjustк In the oceansи the explosive growth of яOо at the surface makes the water too acid for the survival of shellйforming organismsи the basis of the marine chain of lifeк On landи carbon dioxide absorption is reduced by the destruction of the ecosystems that had previously absorbed this gasк эs much as рм per cent of the world’s forest cover has disappearedи due to acid rainи urban sprawlи and the injection of a variety of toxins into the soilк th The influx of greenhouse gases generated by human activity is matched by an influx from nature that is also largely catalyzed by human activityц the warming of the atmosphereк In Siberia a million square kilometer area of permafrost formed нниммм years ago at the end of the last ice age is now meltingк The areaи the world’s largest peat bogи is releasing as much methane into the atmosphere as all of human activity put togetherк d) Global warming. The cumulative effect of the changes induced by human activй ity produces a greenhouse effectк In recent years average temperatures have risen significantlyи and the warming trend is acceleratingк яonservative elements claim that global warming is due primarй ily to natural causesи at the most exacerbated by human activityц a new cycle in the fusionйprocesses that generate heat in the Sun sends an increasing amount of solar radiation to Earthи and this heats up the atmosphereк Howeverи the injection of carbon dioxideи together with methane and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is likely to be a significant factor in creating and accelerating the global warming trendк The historical record of the past million years shows that the amount of яOо in the air correlates with variations in temperatureц even if with some time delayи more carbon dioxide correlates with higher temperaturesк э humanly generated shield in the upper atmosphere is now preventing heat generated at the surface from escaping into surй rounding spaceк яhapter уц яulture and the Sustainability of the Global System | нрп яlimate models show that even relatively minor changes in the composition of the atmosphere can produce major effectsи including widespread harvest failuresи water shortagesи increased spread of diseasesи the rise of the sea levelи and the dieйout of large tracts of forestк Global warming is already producing persistent drought in variй ous parts of the worldк In Northern яhinaи for exampleи prolonged aridity has promptй ed the government to generate rainfall through artificial cloudйseedingк юy reducing the yield of productive landsи drought is creating a global food shortй ageк It is exacerbated by falling world food reservesц the current stocks are not su й cient to cover the needs of the newly foodйdeficit countriesк T THE NEED FOR CULTURAL MUTATION he practices that characterize human activity have their roots in the dominant values and perceptions of peopleк These values and perceptions are now obsoй leteк эllowing them to inspire action is strongly counterproductiveч it produces growing crises and could issue in a worldйscale breakdownк The values and practices that inspire the dominant practices of the contemporary world need to changeк We need a conscious and well focused cultural mutationк The needed cultural mutation does not require people and societies to reject and discard their cultural heritage or disown their cultural preferencesк It only requires a positive change in regard to those values and beliefs that reduce the sustainability of the system that frames human life on the planetк Diversity is a positive attribute of the world systemч a significant reduction would impair its resilienceк Monocultures are inherently unstableи in society the same as in natureк Diversityи howeverи needs to be balanced by unityк Viable systems manifest unity within diversityц their diverse parts or elements are cooperatively focused on the attainment of shared goalsи above allи that ensuring the continued persistence of the whole systemк GROUND RULES FOR HARMONIZING THE DIVERSITY OF THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD T he ground rule for achieving a higher level of unity in the contemporary world is simple and basicц maintain the diversity of the cultures and societies that compose the systemи but join it with a higher level of harmony among themк э globalйlevel harmonization of the system’s diverse elements would allow the pursuit нрр | Laszlo of a variety of goals and objectives as long as they do not damage that vital balances and processes that maintain the whole systemк эchieving a higher level of dynamic stability in the world system is in the best interest of all people and societiesи since without an adequate level of viability in the whole systemи the viability of its parts is compromisedк The basic ground rule is both simple and evidentц Allow diversity to flourish among the cultures and societies that make up the contemporary socioeconomic and ecological world system, but do not allow this diversity to damage or destroy the harmony required to ensure the overall system’s viability. эdditional precepts are required to ensure the effective application of the basic ruleц • Every society has an equal right to access and use the resources of the planetи but it also has equal responsibility to sustain the world system on the planetк • Every society is free to live in accordance with the values and beliefs that accord with its historical heritage and its current wisdomи as long as these values and beliefs do not result in action that constrains the freedom of other societies to live in accordance with their own values and beliefsк • эll societies have a legitimate obligation to safeguard the freedomи physical securityи and territorial integrity of their populationи and to this end maintain an armed forceи but no society has the right to produce and stockpile weapons that threaten the freedomи physical securityи and territorial integrity of any other societyк • эll societies forego technologies that waste essential resourcesи produce dangerous levels of pollutionи or pose a threat to the health and wellbeing of their own people and the people of other societiesк Embracing these and related groundйrules would allow the world system to achieve the unity required to balance its diversity and thereby create and sustain conй ditions necessary to ensure the flowering of human life and wellbeingк Motivating and promoting the cultural mutation that would inspire and motivate this vital developй ment is the moral obligation of all conscious and rational members of the human familyк яhapter уц яulture and the Sustainability of the Global System | нрс REFERENCES IMF—International Monetary Fund оммск World Economic Outlookц Globalization and External Imbalancesк URLц httpцлл wwwкimfк orgлexternalлpubsлftлweoломмслмнлindexкhtmк UNEP—United Nations Environment Programme nкdк GEO рк Global Environment Outlookц Environment for Developmentк Nairobiц United Nations Environment Programmeк URLц httpцллwwwкunepкorgлgeoлgeoркaspк нрт | Laszlo Chapter 8 MEASURING GLOBALIZATION— OPENING THE BLACK BOX: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF GLOBALIZATION INDICES Axel Dreher, Noel Gaston, Pim Martens, and Lotte Van Boxem1 Indices of globalization are employed in various ways. This paper discusses the measurement of globalization with a view to advancing the understanding of globalization indices. Our assessment is that a true understanding of globalization must be an interdisciplinary enterprise. Moreover, it would be fruitful if academics, both quantitative experts and theoreticians, can work together on this challenge. Despite the different methodologies, choice of variables and weights, in order to study and measure globalization meaningfully, new cooperative frameworks are needed. Keywords: globalizationи measurementи globalization indicesк нк The authors contributed equal shares to this articleч the order of names is chosen alphabeticallyк яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нрх T INTRODUCTION he objective assessment of both the causes and consequences of globalization is an essential agenda for contemporary societiesк Positive economicи social and political analyses require data and globalization indices are a most promising means for providing objective dataк Existing indices of globalization are employed in various waysк эpart from academic analysisи globalization indices are used in business analysisи mass and specialized mediaи as well as policy circlesк In business analysisи indices can be employed for gaining insight into the investй ment climateи the current developments of growthи and for helping business underй stand the global environment in which it now operatesк In the mass mediaи the latest release of a globalization index can be the subject of a short news item or a feature articleк It can also serve as an illustration for news coverage on related topicsи such as technological developmentsк In policy circlesи globalization indices provide a world view which reinforce the global context that policy makers work withinк This paper discusses the measurement of globalization with a view to advancing the understanding of globalization indicesк яan globalization be better understood by measuring itы What are the intellectual and political implications of the existing globalization indicesы We will discuss the attributes and limitations of globalization indicesк э central theme of our argument is what we perceive to be the considerable gap between the quantitative and the qualitative analysis of globalizationк We critically analyze the types of index that can contribute to the debate on gloй balizationк юy the ‘globalization debate’ we mean the different viewpoints and facts about globalization that circulate between citizensи academicsи scientistsи politiciansи media and business institutionsк We argue that if globalization indices are to make a substantive contributionи they ought to bridge some existing gaps in our understandй ing of globalizationк For exampleи if cultural transformation is important to globalizaй tionи can we include indicators of this transformation in the measurement of globalй izationы Obviouslyи the indices need to make a transparent and significant contribuй tion to the debateк Finallyи we look at the fields in which indices of globalization can be usedк Stepping outside the realm of the indicesи and considering the contribution to the wider debateи is a useful step to better understanding of the дimйеpossibility of measuring globalizationк Nextи we discuss the most prominent indices of globalizaй tionк нсм | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem I GLOBALIZATION INDICES n what followsи we discuss two indices of globalization developed by two of the authorsко The Maastricht Globalization Indexи or MGIи developed by Martens and Zywietz доммтеи and Martens and Raza доммхе refers to a crossйsection of нну counй triesи while the оммо KOF Index of Globalization constructed in Dreher доммте covers ноо countries for the period from нхум to оммок We also present the most recent KOF index that is based on the оммо KOF Index of Globalizationи covering нсф counй triesк Decisions are made concerning which variables should focus on the extensityи intensityи velocity or impact of the measured aspect as well as whether to adjust the variables for the geographical characteristics of a countryи among others дHeld et alки нхххек While the MGI and KOF indices are very similar in many respectsи there are notable methodological differencesк For exampleи the MGI explicitly includes an enviй ronmental dimensionк The latter is outcomeйbased and therefore excluded from the KOF Indexк These differences partly reflect disagreements about the relative merit of various methodological optionsк Differences have also arisen due to the simultaneous and independent development of the indicesк Howeverи the resulting rankings do not crucially depend on the specific methodological choices madeк эnother major difference is the adjustment of variables included in the indices for the geographical characteristics of countriesк яontrolling for these factors might imй prove the understanding of the otherи more subtle determinants of globalization дeкgки past and present policy choicesе that might ultimately be more interestingк Given the geographical characteristics of a countryи these policy choices also affect economic development дeкgки GDP per capitaек ‘Stripping out the effects of economic developй ment from the various measures of globalization would in fact be removing valuable information from these measures’ дLockwoodи оммреи which is why they should be inй cludedк Pritchett днххте argues thatи when comparing countries’ trade intensityи acй count needs to be taken of obvious structural features of the economyи such as the size and differences in transportation costsк Intuitivelyи these factors will also affect the other measures of globalizationк For exampleи the trade intensity of Panama of омнкт б in нххф was more than eight times higher than the оркр б of the United ок эrguablyи the bestйknown indices of globalization are the эTKearneyлForeign Policy globalization indexи which we abbreviate as ‘эTKлFP’ч the Maastricht Globalization Indexи the ‘MGI’ч the World Marй ket Research яentre Gйindexч and the KOF index of globalization produced by the KOF Swiss Economic Instituteк The latter index is extensively used in academic analysisк Dreher et al. доммфц ус–уфе list пт journal articles published between оммп and оммф that employ the KOF index in statistical analysesк Some of the material in this section is drawn from Dreher et al. доммфеч readers requiring greater detail are referred thereк More information on the MGIи including its related publicationsи can be found on wwwкglobalizationindexкinfoч more details on the KOF Index of Globalization are provided at httpцлл globalizationкkofкethzкchл яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нсн States according to эTKлFP доммоек Whether Panama is eight times more economically globalized than the United States is debatableк The geographical location of Panama at one of the major crossroads of international tradeи its size and its history are likely to be primary factors in its opennessк Howeverи one could equally well argue that the reasons for a country’s openness should not matter for its globalization scoreк Put differentlyи the fact that Panama is more open than the United States because it is at one of the major crossroads of international trade does not change the fact that it is indeed more open and—by definition—more globalizedк Whether correcting for such exogenous factors is a priori desirable is an open questionк яorrecting some variables included in globalization indices while not correcting others makes the results hard to interpretк The preferable option might be to control for these factors statistically when analyzing the causes and consequences of globalization rather than correcting the index a prioriк While the MGI opts to correct for such exogenous factorsи the KOF Index does notк The construction of an index requires that the measures be normalizedк If this were not doneи then relatively small variations in one component or its distribution might completely swamp relatively larger variations in othersк Howeverи different methods for normalizing the data have significantly different impacts on the outcomeи that is why the choice is importantк On the one handи when normalizing data from several years at the same timeи termed panel normalizationи the results are wellйbehaved in terms of sensitivity to extreme valuesк On the other handи changes in one year could affect the ranking of countries in another year—a decidedly undesirable propertyк For this reason Lockwood доммре proposes annual normalizationи that isи the data are norй malized for each yearк Normalization with different parameters дmeanи varianceи exй treme valuesе for each year can have the effect of ‘moving the goal posts’ч in effect letting a country slip in the rankings despite absolute gains in integrationк Howeverи Noorbakhsh днххфaц соое argues that ‘in an international context the goal posts are in fact moving’к If the extant rest of the world is becoming more globalizedи a counй try whose integration is less than the rest of the world is being left behindк Different scalesи means and distributions will alter any weights that are assigned to the differй ent index components and therefore change the relative composition of the indexк эs described in more detail belowи the KOF Index uses panel normalizationк The MGI uses a crossйsection of dataи so panel normalization is not an issueк юoth indices normalize the original variables before including them in the respective indicesк эnother issue refers to how the variables included in the index should be weightй edк There are several options for assigning these weightsи all with their advantages in certain situationsк For human developmentи for exampleи there might be subjective нсо | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem reasons for assigning a priori weights дeкgки the belief that education is equally imй portant as life expectancyек For globalizationи howeverи the case is less clearйcutк Since there is no universal agreement on what globalization isи and even less agreement on the relative importance of its componentsи some authors have advocated the use of statistical methods to derive weights for the index components дeкgки Noorbakhshи нххфbч Lockwoodи оммрч Dreherи оммтек They evaluate the impact of using statistically optimal weights instead of a priori weights as significant but small in absolute termsк The modification adds considerable complexity to the indexк It is possible that the cost in terms of complexity may fall short of the benefitк While the MGI simply adds the individual dimensionsи the KOF Index uses statistical analysis to derive the weightsк The MGIц Many previous indices have a decidedly neoйliberal focus on the ecoй nomic dimensions of globalizationк This may stem from the definition of globalization usedк эs argued earlierи the definition of globalization should refer to the process in its current stateи including socialи cultural and environmental factorsк Henceи contemй porary globalization is defined as the intensification of crossйnational interactions that promote the establishment of transйnational structures and the global integration of culturalи economicи environmentalи politicalи technological and social processes on globalи supraйnationalи nationalи regional and local levels дRennen в Martensи оммпек эnother objective of the MGI is to broaden existing analyses of globalization by inй cluding coverage of sustainable developmentк яomponents of the MGIц Reflecting the need for a balance between broad coverй ageи data availability and quality motivated the following choice of indicatorsи with data for нну countriesк Global Politicsц First among the indicators of political integration are the diploй matic relations that constitute a historical basis for communication between countriesк Logicallyи the more important are the links to the outside worldи the more diplomatй ic links will be established by countries to stay informedи protect their interests and facilitate communicationк Since no aggregated statistics on diplomatic relations are available at the global levelи the number of inйcountry embassies and high commisй sions listed in the Europe World Yearbook are usedк The data are available for nearly all countries worldйwideи but are corrected for country sizeи since very small countries can rarely afford the expense of maintaining multiple embassies and often accredit one representative for several countriesк Membership in international organizations is a similar measure of the extensity of the international relations and involvement of a countryк Moreoverи since such memberships do not necessarily entail the need to яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нсп maintain expensive representations abroadи this measure is less dependent on counй try sizeк Organized Violenceц This indicator measures the involvement of a country’s miliй taryйindustrial complex with the rest of the worldк While the quality of the data is lowи they nevertheless offer an insight into weapons proliferationи international military aid and the reasons and results of international peaceйkeeping operationsк эs this dimenй sion has not previously appeared in other globalization indicesи no comparison is posй sible with those indicesк Of the quantitative military indicators proposed by Held et al. днхххеи trade in conventional armsи compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute дSIPRIеи is the only variable available for a reasonable number of countriesк To make the data internationally comparableи a country’s trade in convenй tional arms is related to its military expenditureк Since a large share of the trade is in ‘bigйticket’ items and programmes that are approved and recorded in one year may actually take several years to deliver and serviceи a moving threeйyear average is usedк The period is arbitrary but offers a reasonable compromise between data availability and the need to smooth the data for infrequentи large purchasesк Global Tradeц Like other globalization indicesи trade intensity is included as a meaй sure of the intensity of economic globalizationк Trade intensity is the sum of a counй try’s exports and imports of goods and services as a share of GDPк The data in this domain have been documented thoroughly over an extended periodи in many cases extending back to the nineteenth centuryк Trade in services has brought new chalй lenges to the statistical processи as it is far easier to value goods physically crossй ing border checkpoints thanи for exampleи data processing or telecommunicationsи or even outsourced management consultancy servicesк Neverthelessи the data are widely available and generally reliableк Global Financeц Foreign direct investment дFDIеи representing financial enmeshй mentи is the primary indicatorк Gross FDIи used hereи is the sum of the absolute valй ues of inflows and outflows of FDI recorded in the balance of payments financial acй countsк It includes equity capitalи reinvestment of earningsи as well as other longйterm and shortйterm capitalк This indicator differs from the standard measure of FDIи which captures only inward investmentк For the measurement of globalizationи howeverи the direction of the flow is less important than the volumeк FDI is the longйterm involveй ment of a foreign firm in a country and has cascading effects throughout an entire economyк It exposes local companies to foreign technical innovationsи management stylesи techniques as well as increased competitionк юecause of these longйterm efй нср | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem fects and the high volatility of the flows in the face of changing economic conditionsи a trailing threeйyear average instead of singleйyear figures is usedк The second measure of financial interdependence used is gross private capital flows дas a percentage of GDPек This is the sum of the absolute values of directи portй folio and other investment inflows and outflows recorded in the balance of payments financial accountsи excluding changes in the assets and liabilities of monetary authoriй ties and the governmentк It measures the wider involvement of international capital in an economy and complements the FDI dataк Once againи trailing threeйyear averages are employedк People on the Moveц This measure encapsulates migration and the international linkages that come with the movement of populations between different countriesк Newlyйarrived immigrants often maintain close connections to their home countries based on family ties and cultural similaritiesи often sending money home to their relaй tives and economic dependentsк While a detailed analysis of migrant stocks and flowsи specified by type and reason of migration would certainly be instructiveи again only limited data are available on a global scaleк эs immigration and naturalization policies vary widely internationally and illegal immigration is widespreadи the share of foreignй born residents of a given country has to su ce as a measure of the intensity of this increasingly controversial dimension of globalizationк Tourism brings people in contact with each otherк It changes attitudes and proй motes understanding between cultures that would otherwise have little contactк эs a major economic activityи it can bring prosperity to regions with no resources othй er than the natural beauty of the surroundings or the cultural value of historic sitesк Tourism has grown steadily in the last centuryи the major impetus being cheaper air travelк It represents an important part of globalization and is therefore included in the indexк The World Tourism Organizationи the source of the dataи provides the sum of international inbound and outbound touristsи that isи the number of visitors who travel to a country other than their usual residence for a period not exceeding twelve months and whose main purpose in visiting is not employment relatedк Technologyц эlthough strongly related to GDP дwith a Pearson correlation coefй ficient of мкффеи the share of a country’s population that uses the internet still adds detail to the picture of the intensity of the technological aspect of globalizationк Whether informing the international community about human rights abuses in recluй sive countries or giving farmers access to commodity prices on the world’s exchangesи as a global medium that transmits information cheaply over large distances it is an important factorк яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нсс The second componentи international telephone tra c дagain measuring intenй sityеи can be used with fewer reservationsи as the technology is older and therefore more widespread and less dependent on a country’s incomeк International telephone tra c is defined as the sum of incoming and outgoing phone calls for a countryи measured in minutes per capita дthe original data are from the International Telecomй munication Unionек The Environmentц Overlooked by existing indices are environmental indicatorsи that isи measures of the intensity of globalization in the ecological domainк Held et al. днхххц пут–пуфе investigate global environmental degradation and the corresponding political and societal responsesк These responsesи howeverи are very di cult to track on a countryйbyйcountry basisк э more promising approach is to measure internationй al linkages in terms of trade of goods that have a strong environmental impactи if not a high monetary oneк Trade in softwareи for exampleи will generally have a far smaller impact on the environment than trade in tropical hardwoodsи hazardous waste or waй terйintensive agricultural productsк Ecological footprint data offer a summary for many of these components since production and trade of these kinds of goods are included in a single measureк эn ecological deficit дa footprint greater than the bioйcapacityе indicates that a counй try must either ‘import space’ from somewhere дor stop ‘exporting’ itе or face rapid ecological degradationк Similarlyи an ecological surplus offers opportunities to ‘export space’ by trade in spaceйintensive goods and servicesк The World Wide Fund for Naй ture’s дWWFе Living Planet Reports provide ecological footprint and bioйcapacity data in several categories дcroplandи grazing landи forestи fishing groundsи energy lands and builtйup landе and aggregate them into a single indexи the ecological deficitк While a country with neither an ecological deficit nor surplus could be either completely auй tarchic or a major traderи by definition there is less dependence on outside linkagesк э higher ranking according to this indicator therefore denotes more involvement with the outside world andи accordinglyи a more globalized country along this dimensionк Method of яalculationц The MGI is constructed in a fourйstage process дsee UNDPи оммоч Martens в Zywietzи оммтек The first stage is conceptual and choices are made about which variables are most relevant and should be included in the indexк In the second stageи suitable quantitative measures are identified for these variablesк In the third stageи following Dreher доммтеи each variable is transformed to an index with a м to нмм scale дthis differs from earlier calculations constructing the MGIи see Marй tens в Zywietzи оммтек Higher values denote greater globalizationк The data are transй formed—on the domain level—according to the percentiles of the base year доммме нст | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem distribution дusing the formula ддViйVminелдVmaxйVminежнммек In the last and final stageи a weighted sum of the measures is calculated to produce the final scoreи which is then used to rank and compare countriesк The ‘most globalized’ country has the highest scoreк Within each domainи every variable is equally weightedк The MGI scores are simply addedи that is all domains receive the same weightк The MGI is calculated for оммм and оммфк Underlying assumptionsц Since there are missing data on the share of internaй tional linkages that are regional rather than globalи it is impossible to distinguish globalization from internationalization and regionalization with complete certaintyк Thereforeи there is an assumption that countries with many international links have a correspondingly greater number of global linkagesк эs expectedи international statistics on нн different indicators ranging from poliй tics and military to the environment have widely varying degrees of data qualityи reflecting the different capabilities and priorities of the organizations collecting the dataк Of particular concern are the domains in which the underlying data have not been collected by o cial international bodies like the World юankи IMF or UNи but by private or semiйpublic organizationsк In additionи many countries are reluctant to share information about activities related to their national securityи which creates data gaps that are not easily filledк The fact that countries with fewer international linkages tend to publish less data and are less likely to be included in international statistics biases against states that are less globalized дsee Rosendorff в Vreelandи оммтек эdditionallyи despite being members of the UN and most other international bodiesи countries with totalitarian or communist economic systems дeкgки North Koreaи яubaе are often excluded in interй national financial statisticsк Thereforeи this also leads to their exclusion due to lack of dataк Finallyи yet importantlyи countries that are too small to collect internationally coй herent statistics andлor are strongly integrated into the economies of large neighbors дeкgки Luxembourgи Monaco and Swazilandе are also missing from the statistics and therefore excluded from the MGIк The resultsц The world’s most globalized country is Ireland with a score of over умк This result is driven by a top с score on most of the indicatorsк On the other handи Ireland ranks only туth when it comes to political integration дand also has a relatively low ranking when it comes to the ecological integrationек France has the highest poй litical integration with the rest of the worldи followed by the United Kingdomи Russia and Germanyк эccording to the political integration indexи Turkmenistan is the counй яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нсу try with the lowest scoreк The sociocultural globalization ranking is headed by Kuwaitи эustriaи and Irelandи while Maliи Madagascar and India place at the bottom of the rankingк From a technological perspectiveи next to Irelandи Switzerlandи New Zealandи the Netherlandsи and Sweden complete the top с дwith юangladeshи яambodia and Madagascar being the bottom пек Kuwait ranks н on the дnonйnormalizedе ecological indexи followed by юelgium and Israelк Least ecologically integrated are Gabon and юoliviaк While Panama scores in the top с in terms of economic globalizationи overallи they are ranked much lowerк This is mainly due to their lower integration within the other domains with the rest of the worldк Irelandи юelgium and the Netherlands comй pose the topйп in this domainк Haiti is the country least integrated in economic termsк The world’s least globalized country in оммф is Madagascarи with an index of less than нск Figure н shows a globalization world mapи where the more globalized countries are in darker colorsк Western European and North эmerican яountries are usually the most globalizedи while countries in SubйSaharan эfrica are the least globalizedк эs for the evolution of globalizationи the overall MGI rose continuouslyи starting from a value of about ос in оммм to almost по in оммфк The increase is largely driven by technological and political integrationк Economic and socialйcultural globalization evolved similarly over timeи while ecological globalization changed less дor decreased Figure 1 Map of the MGI, 2008 нсф | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem Figure 2 Development of globalization across regions in the case of East and Northern Europeек For most countriesи globalization increasedк In some casesи the increases were substantialк The biggest increase was experienced by Ireland дзомкоеи followed by the Netherlands дзнхкуе and юelgium дзнфксеи while globalization decreased most in Turkmenistan д–пкте and Uruguay д–сктек Figure о displays the pattern of the overall globalization index by regionкп Globalй ization has been relatively independent of regionи even though the degree of globalй ization varies considerablyк Overallи the index suggests that some countries are sysй tematically more globalized than othersк While in the last eight years globalization has been pronounced in all regionsи some regions are more globalized than othersк In particularи Western European and other industrialized countries display the greatest integrationи South эsia and SubйSaharan эfrica are the regions least globalizedк The MGI has been linked with sustainability indices to analyze if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of sustainable development and its dimensionsк The results suggest that the process of globalization may render world development more sustainable дMartens в Razaи омнмек The KOF Indexц The KOF globalization index was first published in оммо дDreherи оммтек It covers a large number of countries and has a long time spanк The KOF Index also adds neglected dimensions of globalizationк The оммо KOF Index covers ноп countries and includes оп variablesк The overall index covers the economicи social and political dimensions of globalizationк Globalй ization is conceptualized as the process of creating networks among actors at multiй пк The regions are based on httpцллwwwкunкorgлdeptsлdhlлmaplibлworldregionsкhtm яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нсх continental distancesи mediated through a variety of flows including peopleи informaй tion and ideasи capital and goodsк It is a process that erodes national boundariesи integrates national economiesи culturesи technologies and governanceи and produces complex relations of mutual interdependenceк More specificallyи the three dimensions of globalization are defined asц economic globalizationи characterized by the long distance flows of goodsи capital and services as well as information and perceptions that accompany market exchangesч political globalizationи characterized by the diffusion of government policiesч and social gloй balizationи expressed as the spread of ideasи informationи images and peopleк Economic Globalizationц Economic globalization has two dimensionsк Firstи actual economic flows are usually taken to be measures of globalizationк Secondи the previй ous literature employs proxies for restrictions on trade and capitalк яonsequentlyи two indices are constructed which include individual components suggested as proxies for globalizationк эctual flowsц The subйindex on actual economic flows includes data on tradeи FDI and portfolio investmentк Trade is defined as the sum of a country’s exports and imй ports and portfolio investment is the sum of a country’s assets and liabilitiesч each measure is normalized by GDPк Included are the sum of gross inflows and outflows of FDI дagainи normalized by GDPек While these variables are straightforwardи income payments to foreign nationals and capital are also included to proxy for the extent to which a country employs foreign people and capital in its production processesк International trade and investment restrictionsц The second subйindex refers to restrictions on trade and capital flows using hidden import barriersи mean tariff ratesи taxes on international trade дas a share of current revenueе and an index of capital controlsк Given a certain level of tradeи a country with higher revenues from tariffs is less globalizedк To proxy restrictions on the capital accountи an index constructed by Gwartney and Lawson доммое is employedк Mean tariff rates are obtained from various sourcesк Gwartney and Lawson allocate a rating of нм to countries that do not impose any tariffsк эs the mean tariff rate increasesи countries are assigned lower ratingsк The rating declines toward zero as the mean tariff rate approaches см б дa threshold not generally exceeded by most countries in their sampleек The original source for hidden import barriers is various issues of the World Economic Forum’s Global яompetitiveй ness Reportи based on the survey question ‘Hidden import barriers—no barriers other than published tariffs and quotas [are used]’к нтм | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem Social Globalizationц The KOF Index classifies social globalization in three categoй riesк The first covers personal contactsи the second includes data on information flows and the third measures cultural proximityк Personal яontactsц This index is intended to capture the direct interaction among people living in different countriesк It includes international telecom tra c дoutgoing tra c in minutes per subscriberеи the average cost of a call to the United States and the degree of tourism дincoming and outgoingе a country’s population is exposed toк Government and workers’ transfers received and paid дas a percentage of GDPе meaй sure whether and to what extent countries interactи while the stock of foreign populaй tion is included to capture existing interactions with people from other countriesк Information flowsц While personal contact data are meant to capture measurable interactions among people from different countriesи the subйindex on information flows is meant to measure the potential flow of ideas and imagesк It includes the number of internet hosts and usersи cable television subscribersи number of telephone mainlinesи number of radios дall per ниммм peopleе and daily newspapers дper ниммм peopleек To some extentи all these variables proxy the potential for receiving news from other countries and thus contribute to the global spread of ideasк яultural Proximityц яultural proximity is arguably the dimension of globalization most di cult to graspк эccording to Saich домммц омхеи cultural globalization to a large degree refers to the domination of UкSк cultural productsк эrguablyи the United States is the trendйsetter in much of the global sociocultural realm дRosendorffи омммц нннек эs proxy for cultural proximityи the number of McDonald’s restaurants located in a country is includedк For many peopleи the global spread of McDonald’s is synonymous with globalization itselfк Political Globalizationц To proxy the degree of political globalizationи the number of embassies and high commissions in a countryи the number of international orgaй nizations in which the country is a member and the number of UN peace missions a country participated in are usedк Method of calculationц In constructing the indices of globalizationи each variable is transformed to an index with a м to нм scaleк Higher values denote more globalizaй tionк When higher values of the original variable indicate higher globalizationи the formula ддViйVminелдVmaxйVminежнмме is used for transformationк яonverselyи when higher values indicate less globalizationи the formula is ддVmaxйViелдVmaxйVminежнмек The weights for the subйindices are calculated using principal components analysisк The year оммм яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нтн is used as the base yearк For this yearи the analysis partitions the variance of the variй ables usedк The weights are then determined in a way that maximizes the variation of the resulting principal componentк Thereforeи the index captures the variation as fully as possibleк эs Gwartney and Lawson доммнц уе emphasizeи this procedure is particuй larly appropriate when several subйcomponents measure different aspects of a prinй cipal componentк The same procedure is applied to the overall indexк If possibleи the weights determined for the base year are then used to calculate the indices for each single year back to нхумк Where no data are availableи the weights are readjusted to correct for thisк эll yearly indices are averaged over five years to avoid huge fluctuaй tions due to changes in yearly dataк оммх KOF Index of Globalizationц эn updated version of the original index is preй sented belowк In most casesи the updating simply involves using more recent dataк The costs of a telephone call to the United States are no longer included in the indexи howeverк This was done to avoid the criticism of this variable being overlyйcentred on the United Statesк The update also excludes the number of telephone mainlinesи as nowadays these are not the best measure of international flows of informationк Simiй larlyи to enhance the international focus of the indexи the number of newspapers sold is replaced by the number of newspapers imported and exportedк In additionи a numй ber of proxies for globalization that are not included in the original оммо index are inй cludedц FDI stocksи international letters sent and receivedи the number of Ikea outlets located in a country and trade in books and pamphletsк The number of international letters sent and received measure direct interaction among people living in different countriesк Imported and exported books дrelative to GDPе are used as a measureи as suggested by Kluver and Fu доммрек Traded books are intended to proxy the extent to which beliefs and values move across national bordersк The number of Ikea outlets per country is motivated in a similar fashion to the number of McDonald’s restaurantsк The political dimension now also includes the number of treaties signed between two or more states since нхрс дas provided in the United Nations Treaties яollectionек The оммх index introduces a number of methodological improvements over earй lier versionsк Each of the variables introduced above is transformed to an index on a scale of н to нмми where нмм is the maximum value for a specific variable over the period нхум to оммт and н is the minimum valueк Once againи higher values denote greater globalizationк The data are transformed according to the percentiles of the original distributionк яompared to the previous methodи this has the advantage that a variable’s actual weight in the index is not overly affected by its distributionк яonseй quentlyи the results are no longer driven by extreme outlying observations and missй ing valuesк The weights for calculating the subйindices are determined using principal нто | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem components analysis for the entire sample of countries and yearsк This is a methodй ological change compared with the construction of the оммо Indexи where the weights were determined using data for the most recent periodк Employing data for the whole period yields better comparability over timeк эs discussedи one drawback is that the resulting globalization index is affected by the inclusion of additional countriesк The analysis again partitions the variance of the variables used in each subйgroup and deй termines the weights in a way that maximizes the variation of the resulting principal componentк Howeverи compared to the оммо indexи the weights are calculated using all data currently available instead of calculating them for the base year омммк The same procedure is applied to the subйindices in order to derive the overall index of globalizationк Data for the оммх index are calculated on a yearly basisк Howeverи not all data are available for all countries and for all yearsк In calculating the indicesи all variables are linearly interpolated before applying the weighting procedureк Instead of linear extrapolationи missing values at the border of the sample are substituted by the latest data availableк When data are missing over the entire sample periodи the weights are readjusted to correct for thisк эs observations with value м do not represent missing dataи they enter the index with weight мк Data for subйindices and the overall index of globalization are not calculated if they rely on a small range of variables in a specific year and countryк Observations for the index are reported as missing if more than рм б of the underlying data are missing or at least two out of the three subйindices cannot be calculatedк The indices on economicи social and political globalization as well as the overall index are calculated employing the weighted individual data series instead of using the aggregated lowerйlevel globalization indicesк This has the advanй tage that the data enter the higher levels of the index even if the value of a subйindex is not reported due to missing dataк The resultsц The methodological changesи new variables and data update do not substantially affect the weights of the individual dimensions of globalizationк This is an indication of the robustness of the KOF index visйàйvis the choice of method and dataк Economic and social integration obtain approximately equal weights дпф б andи respectivelyи пх б in the оммх indexеи while political globalization has a substantially smaller weight in the overall index доп б in the оммх indexек эccording to the оммх KOF Indices дwhich refer to data for the year оммтеи the world’s most globalized country is юelgium with a score of almost хок This result is driven by high economic and political integration with the rest of the worldк On the other handи юelgium ranks only tenth when it comes to social integrationк France has яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нтп the highest political integration with the rest of the worldи followed by Italyи юelgium and эustriaк Other countries ranking high on the overall index include Ireland and the Netherlandsк While Singapore and Luxembourg are ranked first and secondи respecй tivelyи in terms of economic globalizationи they are ranked considerably lower overallк This is mainly due to their low political integration with the rest of the worldк эccordй ing to the political integration indexи the яhannel Islandsи the Isle of Man and Mayotte are the countries with the lowest scoreк Overallи the world’s least globalized country is Myanmar with an index of less than орк The country least integrated in economic terms is Rwandaи while Myanmar has the lowest social globalization scoreк Figure п shows the more globalized countries in a darker colorк Once againи Western European and North эmerican countries have usually been the most globalizedи while countries in SubйSaharan эfrica are the least globalizedк The evolution of globalization as measured by the KOF index has been more proй nounced in the later decadesк The overall index rose continuouslyи starting from a value of about пу to more than тм in оммтк Economic globalization evolved similarly over timeи while social and political globalization rose less steadilyк Figure р displays the pattern of the overall globalization index by incomeк In the last пм years globalization has been pronounced in all income groupsи howeverи some groups are clearly more globalized than othersк эs can be seenи high income OEяD countries areи on averageи the most globalizedи while low income countries are the least globalizedк Overallи the index suggests that some countries are systematically more globalй ized than othersк In particularи richer countries seem to beи on averageи more globalй Figure 3 Map of the KOF Index of Globalization, 2009 нтр | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem 2006 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 2006 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 20 50 50 1970 2006 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 20 20 50 80 Lower middle income 80 Low income Upper middle income 2006 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 2006 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 20 50 50 80 80 OECD 20 2009 KOF Index of Globalisation 80 High income: non OECD Year Figure 4 Development of globalization, by income group ized than poorer onesк Western industrialized countries are also more globalized than the average countryк The average OEяD country is far more globalized than the averй age nonйOEяD countryк Table н displays the corresponding data on a yearly basisк э THE RELEVANCE OF GLOBALIZATION INDICES ny assessment of the relevance of the existing indices must consider the differй ent definitions of globalization usedк To facilitate comparisonи the key globalй ization indices appear sideйbyйside in Table о from Dreher et al. доммфек эs the Table indicatesи the WMRя’s Gйindex includes primarily economic factorsч the эTKлFP index does so as well by an a priori weighting scheme that heavily favours economic factorsк Unfortunatelyи with these indicesи globalization is indistinguishable from interй nationalization and liberalizationк This is not to say that data collected with the counй try as the relevant unit of analysis have no valueк Howeverи the assumptions made and the limitations of using these data for the measurement of globalization should be clearly stated—something which both indices fail to doк Many authors examining the measurement of globalization concur with the view that ‘culture is the most visible manifestation of globalization’ дKluver в Fuи оммрек Howeverи despite culture’s importance to globalizationи no index provides an adeй quate solution to its measurementк Martens and Zywietz доммте sideйstep the issue яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нтс year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 High income: non OECD 44.02 44.63 44.85 45.49 45.81 46.45 47.16 47.53 48.35 48.95 49.15 49.58 49.59 50.36 50.25 50.60 50.90 50.51 50.42 50.50 50.70 52.15 52.99 54.51 55.75 58.23 59.53 60.60 61.02 61.82 62.45 63.19 63.11 63.88 64.78 65.13 65.29 OECD Low income 56.91 57.74 58.03 58.71 59.49 59.49 60.51 61.47 62.26 63.13 63.80 65.07 65.26 65.82 65.98 66.95 67.10 67.20 67.59 68.21 68.95 71.56 72.97 73.92 75.02 76.08 77.26 78.76 80.11 80.92 82.48 82.26 81.80 81.90 82.21 82.13 82.61 25.02 25.23 25.50 26.08 26.81 26.86 27.60 27.95 28.95 29.26 29.77 29.99 30.19 30.28 29.27 29.52 29.70 29.78 29.86 30.00 30.15 31.40 31.93 32.99 34.64 35.58 35.98 36.87 38.33 39.88 40.85 41.39 42.46 43.61 44.71 45.21 46.07 Lower middle income 33.63 34.08 34.43 35.16 35.76 36.09 36.45 36.77 37.52 37.88 38.02 38.33 38.24 38.62 37.88 38.33 38.37 38.32 38.54 39.06 39.48 40.82 42.61 43.62 44.99 46.00 47.25 48.47 50.08 51.57 53.97 54.70 55.36 55.77 57.21 57.88 58.99 Upper middle income 40.38 40.68 41.36 41.97 42.31 42.30 43.02 43.32 44.13 44.66 45.02 45.49 45.83 46.09 45.08 45.78 46.15 45.98 45.99 46.37 46.41 47.34 48.92 50.10 51.78 54.89 55.36 57.10 58.56 59.61 60.51 60.92 61.10 62.12 63.53 63.83 64.61 Table 1 Development of globalization, by income group нтт | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem by stating that the concepts of culture and communication are inherently intractable and di cult to quantifyк Kluver and Fu доммре construct a яultural Globalization Indexк They argue that it is impossible to directly measure the diffusion of cultural values and ideas across national bordersк So they use cultural proxiesц ‘the conduits by which ideasи beliefs and values are transmitted’к эlthough cultural globalization is adequateй ly conceptualizedи the available empirical measures once again fall shortк The authors use the imports and exports of books and brochuresи newspapers and periodicals beй cause all other possible indicators lack systematic data sourcesк яountries at the top of the cultural rankings are generally a uent and Englishйspeakingк One danger of the failure to measure cultural factors is the risk of dismissing the importance of cultureк In our opinionи we should be asking why it is that we know so little about what should be discussedк яlearlyи it would be useful if the publication of the indices include some discussion of cultural globalizationк The KOF Index includes some cultural indicators in the ‘social globalization’ subй indexк The indicators that have been included are the number of McDonald’s restauй rants per capitaи the number of Ikea outlets per capita and the number of books tradй ed дas a percentage of GDPек This subйindex can indicate the extent to which cultural globalization matters for economic and social phenomenaк Rather inevitablyи the ‘top нм’ countries in the leading indices are usually laudedк эn exception to this is the MGI because it has integrated two variables—the environй ment and organized violence—that change the meaning of the overall outcomeк Notй withstandingи it is useful to consider what it means to be at the topи middle or bottom of a globalization rankingк The inclusion of new indicatorsи that cannot be considered ‘positive’и changes the discussion about a country’s ranking according to an indexк For exampleи if the Nethй erlands ranks highly in every index of globalization is that something to be applaudй edы It does implyи of courseи that this country has many linkages with the world outй side its national bordersк эccording to the MGIи the Netherlandsи for exampleи ranks fourth in both the overall rank and in the environmental rankк It is placed fortieth in the ‘organized violence’ rankк This implies that the Netherlands has a large ecological footprint and relatively intense trade in conventional armsк It also scores well in other areas such as capital flowsи tradeи and telephone tra cк э large ecological footprint implies a large ecological deficitи which needs to be compensated for by ‘space’ outside the country’s territoryк In this wayи the growth in transport is connected to the exploitation of natural resources дMartens в Rotmansи яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нту Category Relevance Robustness MGI (Martens and Raza 2009) Sub-category Deinition of globalization used Very narrow, only economic Medium Very broad Very broad Diferentiation of globalization from internationalization No diferentiation No diferentiation No diferentiation No diferentiation Type of change measured Extensity, intensity Extensity, intensity Extensity, intensity Extensity, intensity Geographical adjustment No No Yes No Coverage 185 countries 72 countries 117 countries 122 countries Correlation with economic development Low High High High Sensitivity to extreme values Method not published High (crosspanel normalization) Low Low Sensitivity to year-to-year data variations Very high (exclusive use of strongly luctuating indicators) High (some indicators with lower luctuation) Low (indicators with high luctuations are averaged) High (some indicators with lower luctuation) A priori, with normative discussion Equal weights Principal components analysis Some distortion No distortion Some distortion Correlation with own High components Low Some Some Correlation among components Not published Not published Moderate Moderate Moderate High High High Partially Yes Yes Yes A priori, with Method for normative determining weights discussion Weight distortion Added value ATK (A.T. Kearney / Foreign Policy 2007) WMRC (Randolph 2001) Transparency of Transparency methodology Data published Method not published KOF (Dreher 2006) Note: Relevance is concerned with whether the index is really measuring globalization (instead of, for example, internationalization). Robustness is concerned with the reliability of the measurement under adverse circumstances; how sensitive to extreme values and year-to-year variations is the index. To add value, the index should help us understand globalization better than we could by just looking at its components. Transparency helps others to judge how valuable the index is for their purposes; whether the index, based on readily available data and literature, is reproducible; and whether the underlying assumptions are made explicit. Table 2 Existing globalization indices and criteria for good composite indices нтф | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem оммсеи for instanceк So while this helps to elevate the Netherlands to the top rankй ing of this indexи it also raises questions about the relationship between globalizaй tionи economic growth and the environmentк Unlike the other variables in the indexи this environmental factor appears to be a consequence of globalization rather than a driving forceк Howeverи as the globalizing processes intensify over timeи the ‘indirect impacts of humanйinduced disruption of global biogeochemical cycles and global cliй mate change start to become apparent’ дMartens в Rotmansи оммсек If consumerism and global economic processes have polluting sideйeffectsи it needs to be asked which direction these dynamics need to take for a sustainable fuй tureк With the environment integrated into the indexи the longйexisting ‘environment versus growth’ tension can be exposedи for which the term ‘sustainable development’ is often used дIbidкек The demands for environmental protection and economic develй opment are said to be competingк Some claim an eternal competitionи while others emphasise a possible winйwin situation дVan Kasterenи оммоек Since globalization implies interйconnectedness and complexityи its various asй pects need to be consideredк The environment cannot be treated separately from evй erything else that is globalк Moreoverи an integrated index of globalization can stimuй late a new framework of analysis for the market systemи recognizing the need to inteй grate ecological costs in trade and consumption дIbidкек The inclusion of trade in conventional arms in the MGI also serves to highlight such tradeк Do global mechanisms promote production and open gateways to trade in armsы яlearly the issue is complicated as it involves economic costs and benefitsи political risksи social tensions and ethical valuesк While such issues are far from being resolvedи the way the addition of such indicators influence the relevance of a meaй surement of globalization needs to be emphasizedк эn important criticism of many indicesи such as the MGI and the эTKлFPи is thatи strictly speakingи they measure internationalization and regionalization rather than globalizationк For exampleи the MGI’s ‘top нм’ is composed of European nations which reinforces an impression of increased regionalizationк эll indices have component indicators and data that fail to distinguish between globalization and internationalization дor liberalizationе to some degreeк They also fail to include supraйterritorial indicatorsк For exampleи while the number of embassies a country has abroad may mirror increasing cooperation and even integrationи these data have a territorial baseк яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нтх Even leaving the problem of ‘methodological territorialism’ to one sideи the episй temology of globalization makes one doubt the possibility of measuring itк Globalй ization occurs at levels that make measurement di cultи for exampleи transйborder environmental issuesи cultural transformations and a soйcalled ‘global consciousness’к Those features of globalization are obviously interesting and new to us whichи in turnи is one reason why they are so di cult to captureк The ‘qualitative’ side of research generally focuses on multiйdimensional analyses of globalization by constructing frameworks and conceptsк This is usefulи but does not provide a solid scientific footing with which to evaluate the overйarching phenomй enon of globalizationк On the other handи the ‘quantitative’ side of researchи with its focus on dataи statistics and indicesи runs the risk of overйsimplificationк эs we have arguedи to confront new questions on the essential nature of globalй ization requires an interdisciplinary approachк Sociologistsи critics of science and techй nologyи and economists and others need to work on dimensions of the same quesй tionsк э composite index of globalization can reconcile multiйfacetted approachesк эn index needs to be conceptually analyzed and formulated and this leads to the issue of measurementк Instead of questioning the adequacy of measuring globalizationи a cerй tain degree of optimism is vital for making the improvements in measurementи which are necessary to advance an understanding of the globalization phenomenonк э CAN WE REALLY MEASURE GLOBALIZATION? s we have discussedи the measurement of globalization should try to include the essential features of contemporary globalizationк Howeverи when we think about a possible methodologyи we face a greater problem which applies to existing indices of globalization—classic or modifiedк Even if we could manage to find suitable supraйterritorial indicators and indicators that portray cultural and other comй plex global featuresи how could such measures fit in with the rest of the existing meaй suresи since the end result is still countryйbasedы This dead end in the measurement of globalization is well described by яaselli доммтек Given this situationи it is paradoxical and misconceived to insist on studying reality in generalи and globalization all the more soи with instruments that take the nationй state as their unit of analysisк It is at most possible to study internationalization in this wayи but not globalizationк In other wordsи the globalization measures currently availй able are vitiated by what has been variously called methodological nationalism дюeckи оммреи embedded statism дSassenи омммеи or methodological territorialism дScholteи нум | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem оммме—a perspective which distorts the essence of globalization precisely when its study beginsи and which yields data that ‘in the best of cases are irrelevant and in the worse misleadingи or even false’ дюeckйGernsheimи оммри as cited by яaselliи оммтц омек Those features of globalization that are essentially new to us are those which are most di cult to measure by means of data collection and index constructionк If the current epistemological basis of measuring globalization is so theoretically unsatisй factory and empirically problematicи we need to question why we should pursue the construction and maintenance of globalization indices which may be too narrow to understand globalizationк э possible solution to these issues is to assess globalization by thematic orderк For exampleи we can measure how globalized our worldwide politics areк юauman’s днххфе idea of a new class division between the globalized upper classes and the localized lower classes may also be promisingк This leads to the proposal to measure globalй ization along individual linesи or along the lines of demographic groupsк We could also measure the amount of supraйterritorial institutionsи both formal and informalк Howeverи once again the problem rises of fitting in these transйborder results with a countryйbased indexк T IS THE MEASUREMENT OF GLOBALIZATION A DEAD END? he measurement of globalization contains so many pitfalls that it is tempting to retreat to purely qualitative analysesк Howeverи this would burn the fragile bridge between the qualitative and quantitative analysis of globalizationк The qualitative side of research generally focuses on a multiйdimensional analysis of gloй balizationи by constructing frameworks and concepts through which to understand itк This provides some toolsи but not a solid scientific footing which can fully comprehend the entire phenomenon of globalizationк It is simply theory without measurementч running the risk of unsubstantiated and unscientific speculationк The quantitative side of research assesses the state of play about globalization using dataи statistics and indicesк While this approach runs the risk of oversimplification and may take on an overly enthusiastic air of truthи its transparent use of the available data is its ultimate salvationк There is a possibility to bridge the gap between theory and measurementк яomй posite indices of globalization can provide the meeting place or forum for both apй proachesк яomposite indices need matters to be conceptually analyzed and continuй яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нун ally reformulatedк Instead of rejecting the possibility of measuring globalization adй equatelyи the measurement of globalization needs to beи and can beи improved uponк э new mode of thinkingи such as supraйterritorialityи can trigger new ideas on both the analysis and quantification of globalizationк The confrontation with new questions on the essential nature of globalization needs to be an interdisciplinary cooperationк It would be fruitful for academics from the quantitative side дmodelingи conclusive statementsи certainty and proofsе and qualitative side дanalysisи discussionи conceptual revisionи background and textual formе to sit together and work on the challengesк Despite the different methodoloй giesи choice of variables and weightsи and so onи they need to recognize that in order to study globalization conciselyи new cooperative frameworks are neededк Sociologistsи critics of science and technology and economists need to work on dimensions of the same questionsк For instanceи an interdisciplinary review of science and technology analyses different lines of approach and formulates conceptual critiй cism to technical problemsк It provides an overview of possible solutions and elaboй rates upon quantitative issuesк Rather than handing over responsibility from discipline to disciplineи what is required is tackling collectively the measurement of globalizaй tionк In this caseи the whole is greater than the sum of the individual partsк The study and ultimate understanding of globalization requires academics and professionals alike to step outside their own narrow disciplinary boundariesк ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We thank Mohsin Raza for his help in analyzing the MGIк REFERENCES Kearneyи эк Tк л Foreign Policyк оммок Globalization Indexк Washingtonи Dкякц яarnegie Endowment for International Peaceк Kearneyи эк Tк оммук Globalization Indexк Washingtonи Dкякц яarnegie Endowment for International Peaceк юaumanи Zк нххфк Globalizationц The Human яonsequencesк New Yorkц яolumbia University Pressк юeckи Uк оммрк Der kosmopolitische юlick oderц Krieg ist Friedenк Frankfurt am Mainц Suhrkamp Verlagк юeckйGernsheimи Eк оммрк Wir und die эnderenк Frankfurt am Mainц Suhrkamp Verlagк нуо | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem яaselliи Mк оммтк On the Nature of Globalization and its Measurementк UNUйяRIS Occasional Papersк Milanoц Università яattolica del Sacro яuoreк URLц httpцллwwwкcrisк unuкeduл adminлdocumentsломмтмоомннпссукOйоммтйпкpdfк Dreherи эк оммтк Does Globalization эffect Growthы Evidence from a New Index of Globalizationк эpplied Economics пфднмец нмхн–нннмк Dreherи эки Gastonи Nк et al. оммфк Measuring Globalizationц Gauging its яonsequencesк New Yorkц Springerк Gwartneyи Jки and Lawsonи Rк оммни оммок Economic Freedom of the Worldц эnnual Reportк URLц httpцллwwwкfreetheworldкorgк Heldи Dки McGrewи эк Gк et al. нхххк Global Transformationsц Politicsи Economics and яultureк Stanfordи яэц Stanford University Pressк Kluverи Rки and Fuи Wк оммрк The яultural Globalization Indexк Foreign Policy online Web Exclusiveк URLц httpцллwwwкforeignpolicyкcomлstoryлcmsкphpыstory_ idщорхрк Lockwoodи юк оммрк How Robust is the Kearney л Foreign Policy Globalization Indexы The World Economy оуц сму–сорк Martensи Pки and Razaи Mк оммхк Globalization in the онst яenturyц Measuring Regional яhanges in Multiple Domainsк The Integrated эssessment Journal хднец н–нфк Martensи Pки and Razaи Mк омнмк Is Globalization sustainableы Sustainability оц офм–охпк Martensи Pки and Rotmansи Jк оммск Transitions in a Globalizing Worldк Futures пуц ннпп–ннррк Martensи Pки and Zywietzи Dк оммтк Rethinking Globalizationц э Modified Globalization Indexк Journal of International Development нфц ппн–псмк Noorbakhshи Fк нххфaк э Modified Human Development Indexк World Development отдпец сну–софк Noorbakhshи Fк нххфbк The Human Development Indexц Some Technological Issues and эlternative Indicesк Journal of International Development нмдсец сфх–тмск Pritchettи Lк нххтк Measuring Outward Orientation in LDяsц яan it be Doneы Journal of Development Economics рхдоец пму–ппск Randolphи Jк оммнк GйIndexц Globalization Measuredк URLц httpцллwwwкwmrcкcomлк Rennenи Wки and Martensи Pк оммпк The Globalization Timelineк Integrated эssessment рдпец нпу–нррк Rosendorfи Nк Mк омммк Social and яultural Globalizationц яonceptsи History and эmerica’s Roleк In Nyeи Jк Sки and Donahueи Jк Dк дedsкеи Governance in a Globalizing World дppк нмх– нпрек Washingtonи Dкякц юrookings Institution Pressк Rosendorffи юк Pки and Vreelandи Jк Rк оммтк Democracy and Data Disseminationц The Effect of Political Regime on Transparencyк Memphisи TNц Mimeoк Saichи Tк омммк Globalizationи Governanceи and the эuthoritarian Stateц яhinaк In Nyeи Jк Sки and Donahueи Jк Dк дedsкеи Governance in a Globalizing World дppк омф–оофек Washingtonи Dкякц юrookings Institution Pressк яhapter фц Measuring Globalization—Opening The юlack юox | нуп Sassenи Sк омммк New Frontiers Facing Urban Sociology at the Millenniumк юritish Journal of Sociology снднец нрп–нсхк Scholteи Jк эк омммк Globalization—a яritical Introductionк Hampshireч New Yorkц Palgraveк United Nations Development Programme дUNDPек оммок Human Development Report оммок New Yorkц Oxford University Pressк Van Kasterenи Jк оммок Duurzame Technologieк эmsterdamц Uitgeverij Natuur в Techniekк нур | Dreherи Gastonи Martensи and Van юoxem Chapter 9 ON FREE TRADE, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND THE WTO Rafael Reuveny This article focuses on the argument that a free global market benefits the environment. I explore the link between climate change, which has recently emerged as the greatest environmental threat, and world trade, which has grown continuously since WWII. The growth of world trade, facilitated by the GATT-WTO regime, evokes an important question. Is this regime good for the environment, or has it contributed to the increase of greenhouse gases, the primary driver of climate change? While this question cannot be fully ans-wered in this paper alone, it is important to consider it now because many of the expected damages caused by climate change may be considerable and nonreversible. After discussing the state of knowledge on the effects of trade on the environment, we evaluate whether the biosphere can accommodate perpetual economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to integrate the insights gained by outlining a proposed research program focusing on the WTO and the environment in the context of climate change. Keywords: environmentи economic growthи World Environmental Protection эgencyк яhapter хц On Free Tradeи яlimate яhangeи and the WTO | нуу T INTRODUCTION he ideology of liberalism can be generally categorized into two interrelated catй egoriesи republican and commercial liberalismк Republican liberalism focuses on the causes and consequences of democracyи as opposed to autocracyк яomй mercial liberalism focuses on the causes and particularly the consequences of free domestic and international marketsи as opposed to central governmental control of economic activitiesк юoth types of liberalism link political and economic freedoms to many socioйpoliticalйeconomic forcesи including international relationsи war propensiй tyи income distributionи standard of livingи economic growthи quality and performance of institutionsи and the state of the environmentк э common thread shared by both classes of liberalism is the argument that political and economic freedomи or democй racy and the free marketи are superior across the boardи promoting peaceи prosperityи and political stabilityк эccording to a derivative of this argumentи free domestic and global economic markets also promote environmental quality and reduce environmental degradation within national and domestic systemsк The argument that free global markets proй mote global environmental quality stands at the center of this paperк In recent decadesи climate change has emerged as the largest threat to the global environmentк During the нхфмs and early нххмs there was still some uncertainty as to whether climate change was occurringи particularly whether it was humanйinduced or naturalк Today there is a general scientific consensus that climate change is occurring and human activityи particularly the burning of fossil fuelsи is the cause дIPяяи оммуи оммнaек The global market involves a number of international economic interactionsи inй cluding trade flowsи foreign direct investmentsи financial capital movementsи currenй cy exchangesи labor flows or migrationи technological transfersи and movements of physical capitalк Of these interactionsи this article focuses on international trade flows for two reasonsк Firstи most people identify international trade as the impetus behind a free global marketк Secondи and perhaps more importantlyи the global policymakй ing community has focused more on international trade than any other subject since World War IIк э number of authors have reviewed the evolution of the international trade reй gime after World War IIи including GэTT днххнеи яole домммеи and Salvatore доммтек In нхрф several countries led by the UкSк created the General эgreement on Tariffs and Trade дGэTTек The evolution of the GэTT reflected the liberal view that free trade benй нуф | Reuveny efits everyoneк In the following decades several multilateral trade negotiations took placeч the Kennedy Round днхтп–нхтуеи Tokyo Round днхуп–нхухеи and the Uruguay Round днхфт–нххре removed many trade barriersк In нххр the GэTT was replaced by a newly created global institutionи the World Trade Organization дWTOеи which was given more powers in promoting free tradeк Todayи almost every country in the world has joined the WTOк Under the GэTTйWTO regimeи world trade has continuously expandedк юefore the нхтмs it was concentrated among industrialized countriesк Today it involves all the countries in the world to a greater degreeи and developing countries such as яhina and India have become major tradersк Naturallyи this trade growth would not be posй sible without the liberalization of trade barriersк This move was spawnedи nurturedи supervisedи and enforced first by the GэTT and then by the WTOк Todayи the WTO is one of the strongest international organizationsк It has jurisdiction to decide on international trade disputesи rendered by the member countriesи and can also impose penalties on members that break its lawsк WTO membersи in turnи agree to follow the decisions of the WTO court systemи as well as implement all of their contractual reй sponsibilities according to the WTO body of lawк This paper addresses the relationship between trade liberalization and activities under the GэTTйWTO regime and the global environmentч particularly the risk of climate changeк I specifically address the following research questionц Is this regime good for the environmentи or has trade liberalization under this regime contributed to the increase of greenhouse gasesи the primary driver of climate changeы The results obtained by answering these questions can serve as a basis for evaluating the need and possibility to include climate change concerns in future WTO policies and lawsк My question is not easy to answer since climate change is an evolving and comй plex phenomenon whose primary effects are still not fully manifestedи nor fully underй stoodк эn investigation of this research question is complex and can yield several outй comesк We may find that free trade has nothing to do with environmental degradaй tionи or even promotes environmental qualityи thus there is no need to bring climate change concerns into the WTOк We may also conclude that even though trade has promoted environmental degradationи the WTO has defended the environmentи thus we should enlarge its responsibilities and powers in this regardк эlternativelyи we may find free trade causes environmental degradationи including climate changeи and the WTO has not addressed environmental concernsк We may even find that the WTO has made things worseи promoting environmental degradation in its pursuit of free tradeк яhapter хц On Free Tradeи яlimate яhangeи and the WTO | нух Even though the research question is complex and cannot be fully answered withй in the scope of one articleи it is important to start discussions nowк Time is critical because many of the expected adverse damages caused by climate changeи including rising sea levelsи inundation of lowйlying areasи seasonal changes such as lengthening of heat wavesи land degradationи intensification of storms and other weather eventsи drying of fresh water sourcesи and melting glaciersи tundraи and iceйpoles may be conй siderable and irreversibleк We must therefore attempt to gain as many insights as posй sible on the research question today and not postpone the discussion until the time when these damages are fully manifestedк I will approach the question in three stagesк Firstи I will discuss the state of theoй retical and empirical knowledge on the effects of trade on the environmentк эs we shall seeи trade sometimes affects the environment through the channel of economic growthк Secondи this observation suggests that we could gain insights by discussing whether the global biosphere can accommodate a situation of perpetual global ecoй nomic growthк Thirdи I will integrate the insights gained into the last section by outlinй ing a proposed research agenda focusing on two interrelated topicsц the connection between the WTO trade regime and the environmentи and the public policy impliй cations for the current design of the WTO andи more generallyи trade liberalization with the goal of slowing the rate of global climate changeк My research findings may perhaps suggest that attempts to bring environmental considerations into the WTO would require the design of a new international trading systemк I THE EFFECTS OF TRADE ON THE ENVIRONMENT nternational trade can affect the environment through two mechanismsк One mechanism directly influences human economic activities that affect the environй ment and works regardless of whether the economy growsк The second mechaй nism affects the environment indirectly because it affects the rate of economic growth whichи in turnи affects the environmentк Mechanism One: Direct Effects эs detailed in Pugel доммуеи Harris доммтеи OEяD днххре and othersи the total direct effects of international trade on the environment are the result of several competing channelsк Each of these channels may promote or reduce environmental degradationи depending on the strength of the competing effects they representк We can classify these effects by their typesц compositionalи structuralи regulatoryи and technologicalк нфм | Reuveny The compositional effect of trade can promote or reduce environmental degraй dation by changing the composition of traded goodsк яonsiderи for exampleи a nation that produces a laborйintensive good whose production does not affect the environй ment and a capitalйintensive good whose production damages the environmentк эsй sume the country is capitalйabundantи or has more capital relative to labor compared with other countriesк This countryи thenи has comparative advantage in capitalйintenй sive goodsи or can produce them cheaper than other countriesк Market logic implies that this country would specialize in producing capitalйintensive goodsи or produce more of them relative to no tradeи exporting them to othersк яonsequentlyи it will also produce less of the laborйintensive goodsи relative to no tradeи importing them from othersк Heavier production of the environmentally damaging capitalйintensive good will obviously increase damage to the environmentк Ifи in contrastи the country is laborй abundantи trade will increase production and export of the laborйintensive good and reduce production of the capitalйintensive goodи thereby reducing relative damage to the environmentк The structural effect of trade involves changes in the structure of the local econй omy due to changes in the location of consumptionи investmentи and productionк For exampleи consider a country that grows chemicalйintensive cropsи and the chemiй cals employed дeкgки pesticidesи fertilizersе damage the environmentк эs the country opens for tradeи it may decrease production of chemicalйintensive cropsи importing them from countries producing them at lower costsк This country will see a change in the structure of its economy since it will employ fewer chemicalsи all other things being equalк эs a resultи environmental quality will riseк Ifи howeverи another country increased production of these chemicalйintensive crops to satisfy greater global deй mandи it could face greater environmental degradation due to chemical applicationк The regulatory effect of trade works by promoting certain policiesк Some trade agreementsи for exampleи require countries to keep environmental damage in checkи calling for environmentallyйfriendly regulationsк эnother example involves a large and influential country pushing others to take a proйenvironment approach in order to be able to sell in its marketsк This effectи howeverи may also work in the opposite direcй tionк If the influential country is not environmentally consciousи others may follow its leadи ignoring the degradationк In a third exampleи consider countries with parochial trade interests pushing to relax environmental regulations in order to employ cheapй er production methods that are also less environmentallyйfriendlyк If other countries adopt this course of actionи environmental degradation may rise globallyи as the relaxй ing of environmental regulations becomes a ‘race to the bottom’к яhapter хц On Free Tradeи яlimate яhangeи and the WTO | нфн Finallyи the technological effect of international trade can raise or reduce enviй ronmental degradation by promoting changes in production methodsк For exampleи countries may be required to reduce the quantity of fertilizers or pesticides they use in agriculture since foreign consumers may seek to consume organically grown edible plants and cropsк юy opening domestic societies to new ideas and innovationsи interй national trade may also promote a move toward environmentally cleaner technoloй gies and production methodsк Howeverи the technological effect of international trade could also globally propagate the use of environmentally damaging methods and technologies дeкgки fossil fuelйbased methodsек яountries may use these technologies and production methods because they are cheaper to employ and legal according to extant environmental lawsк This outcome may also lead to a ‘race to the bottom’и as countries seek to reduce their production costs by relaxing proйenvironment laws and existing regulationsк Mechanism Two: Indirect Effect Since the indirect effect of international trade on the environment works through the channel of economic growthи we need to first discuss the effect of trade on the econй omyк яommercial liberalism assumes that people want to maximize consumptionк Economic growthи it is arguedи ensures continuously rising consumptionк Free markets are argued to be the best social mechanism to promote economic growth because they allocate inputs of production to their most e cient usesи and they provide incenй tives for innovation by granting large profits to the innovators until others learn to imitate the innovationк The liberal argument for free international trade is an application of the general argument for free marketsк Expanding trade enables national specialization in producй ing goods according to the principle of comparative advantageи increasing producй tion and promoting economic growthк Nationality is not a variable in the assumptions describing the behavior of people in commercial liberalismк To put it differentlyи clasй sical and neoclassical economics do not distinguish between the intrastate interacй tions of эmerican producers from Philadelphia and consumers from юaltimoreи for exampleи or producers from India and consumers from Italyк Neoclassical economistsи thenи implicitly make the connection that since free markets make sense domesticallyи they also make sense internationallyк In principleи we could end the discussion hereи yet commercial liberals elaborate furtherк Exportи they argueи promotes fuller utilization of underemployed domestic inputs since it provides new outlets for domestic productionк Imports can stimulate нфо | Reuveny domestic demandи ultimately enabling larger domestic productionк юy expanding overall productionи free trade promotes more e cient division of labor between proй duction activities and enables economies of scaleи which reduces average costs and increases profitsи thus providing incentives for growthк Trade also transmits new ideas and technologies across national boundariesк When countries restrict tradeи they also curtail flows of technologies and improved productsи which harms growthк Finallyи by increasing the number of producers in the market placeи trade pushes domestic proй ducers to become more e cientи which accelerates economic growthк The indirect effect of trade on the environment works through the ‘environmental Kuznets curve’ дEKяек The theory behind the EKя is discussed in a number of sourcesи including Thompson and Strohm днххуеи Perman et al. доммпеи Dinda доммреи and Li and Reuveny доммуек эs argued in the preceding paragraphsи international trade promotes economic growthк Thisи howeverи is said to affect the environmentк Up to some threshй oldи damage to the environment is said to rise as income per capita risesк эbove this threshold of income per capitaи environmental damage is said to decline as income per capita risesк The plot of environmental degradation as a function of income per capita thus takes the shape of an inverted Uк The name EKя is given by analogy to the original Kuznets curve proposed by Nobel Prizeйwinning economistи Simon Kuznets дKuznets нхссек The original curve plots income inequality in a country as a function of income per capita and also takes the shape of an inverted U дsee Figure н for an illustrationек Environmental Degradation The shape of the EKя is driven by two competing forcesи the scale and the inй come effectsк With current technologyи larger production and consumption generates more environmental degradation дeкgки pollutionи wasteеи denoted as the scale effect of economic growthк Howeverи as income per capita risesи human preferences arguably Income Per Capita Figure 1 A Generic Enviromental Kuznets Curve яhapter хц On Free Tradeи яlimate яhangeи and the WTO | нфп shift toward consuming and producing goods that generate less environmental damй ageк Essentiallyи richer people are not only more willing to pay more for environmenй talйfriendly goods and environmental protectionи but are also able to pay for these goodsк This is known as the income effect of economic growthк The scale effectи thenи is positiveц environmental degradation rises with income per capitaк The income effect is negativeц environmental degradation falls with income per capitaк эccording to the EKя theoryи as income per capita risesи the income effect will dominate the scale effectи generating the inverted U shape that indicates a decline in environmental degradation with incomeк Whether the U shape exists empirically is a question of interest for usк I also seek to discover whether the EKя holds true for environmental degradationи since the EKя is primary rationale supporting the posiй tion that free trade raises environmental qualityк This view sees no need for policy interventionч the system can fix itselfи provided that markets are set freeк Howeverи the EKя is not a hypothesis to be tested hereк Rather it is an issue into which we can gain insight by discussing existing resultsк The empirical literature on the EKя effect is substantial and cannot be fully disй cussed hereк Extensive reviews are availableи for exampleи in Panayotou доммми оммпеи Dinda доммреи and Stern доммрек In generalи the obtained empirical results are inconй clusiveк Some studies find that EKяs exist for some air pollutantsи but not for othersк Other studies dispute the resultsк EKя results for carbon dioxide emissions and deй forestationи the primary drivers of climate change дemissions on the source side and deforestation on the sink sideи as forests absorb carbon dioxideеи are also inconclusiveк Even if the EKя effect existsи the estimated turning points of the inverted U curveи beй yond which the damage arguably declinesи range from about асммм–апмиммм in real termsи depending on the particular environmental indicatorи statistical model specifiй cationи estimatorи and sampleк Given that real income per capita of most developing countries is much smaller than асммми even if the EKя effect existsи we would have to wait many years before it materializesк The number of empirical studies on the effect of trade on environmental degй radation is comparatively smallк Lucas et al. днххое conclude that the growth rate of toxic intensity declines with openness to tradeк Grossman and Krueger днххпе find that trade openness дratio of export plus import to gross domestic productе reduces sulfur dioxide emissions but has no effect on smoke and suspended particulate matterк Suri and яhapman днххфе report a negative effect of the ratio of import to GDP on enй ergy consumption per capitaи interpreted to indicate that air pollution falls with tradeк эntweiler et al. доммне find that trade liberalization reduces sulfur dioxide emissionsи нфр | Reuveny but the effect is very smallк юarbier доммне finds that agricultural export promotes agй ricultural land expansionи concluding that trade intensifies environmental pressureк Dean доммое finds that trade liberalization promotes water pollution in яhinaк Li and Reuveny доммуе find that trade openness promotes deforestation and does not affect land degradationк Taken togetherи the results presented in this and the previous subsections are inй conclusiveк Howeverи the problem of trade and the environment is in fact even more complex than has been suggested by these resultsк эt stake is yet a bigger questionц can the biosphere accommodate a constantly growing global economic systemы F PERPETUAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT or environmental damages that arguably exhibit the EKя effectи the income per capita turning points found in empirical analyses are almost always much higher than current per capita incomes of developing countriesк Since the large majorй ity of global population lives in developing countriesи even if the EKя effect exists for some damagesи global environmental degradation may not decline autonomously with free trade and economic growth in the foreseeable futureк In no area is this issue more important than in the area of climate changeк эccording to the Intergovernmental Panel on яlimate яhange дIPяяеи there were systematic patterns of climate change consistent with a tendency of global warming in the омth centuryи including an increase in the frequency and duration of warm periй odsи glacial retreatи an approximately ом centimeter rise in sea levelи an approximately мкнм я per decade rise in average global temperatureи a нм б decline in winter snow coversи a рм б decline in northern sea ice thicknessи a нс б decline in summer northй ern sea ice coverageи and a considerable rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather eventsк These variations are attributed primarily to greenhouse gas emissions generated by manйmade fossil fuel burning дIPяяи оммуек The predicted effects of climate change in this century varyи depending on asй sumptions about energy useи population growthи technological progressи and ecoй nomic growthк Howeverи all forecasts predict that the sea level and intensity and freй quency of extreme weather events will riseк Existing predictions on the effects of a one meter seaйlevel rise on land and populationи assuming no protective measures are takenи suggest that hundreds of millions of people will be displacedк Several small islandйstates in the Pacific may be completely submerged and other countries may яhapter хц On Free Tradeи яlimate яhangeи and the WTO | нфс suffer significant land lossи including Gambiaи юangladeshи Vietnamи and the Netherй landsк эgricultureи forestryи fresh waterи and coastal infrastructures are expected to be particularly sensitive to climate changeк Forecasts suggest that lesser developed countries дLDяsе are the most vulnerable to climate change due to their limited adapй tive capacity and large dependence on the environment for generating livelihoods дIPяяи оммнbек Recalling that trade promotes economic growthи with the current state of techй nology and energy generationи it is apparent that as free trade expands under the auspices of the WTOи at least the scale effect of trade will intensify climate change in the coming decadeк What about the income effect and the EKя effect as a wholeы эnd what about the possibly positive direct effects of trade on the environmentы Let us asй sume that these effects together will benefit the environment in general and mitigate climate change in particularк Does this mean that free international trade is ultimately the best policy to combat environmental degradationы These are complex questionsк To gain insightи let us assume that the EKя effect and free trade are the answers to environmental degradationк Henceи we should foй cus on promoting economic growth and free tradeк For exampleи we should aid LDяs in attaining the standard of living in developed countries дDяsеи and strengthen the WTO to better monitorи reportи litigate and punish countries that deviate from free tradeк юefore we jump to this conclusionи we must ask yet another questionц can the biosphere accommodate the standard of living in Dяs for all people in the worldы If the answer is noи even if trade and growth promote environmental qualityи policies promoting these forces may prove to be counterproductiveк The English economist Thomas Malthus днухфе believed there were limits to ecoй nomic growthк In the long runи he arguedи the growth of food would fall below popuй lation growth and society would converge in a state of poverty and conflictк Neoclasй sical economists have criticized Malthus for ignoring the role of technological progй ress in alleviating environmental pressuresи and his ideas subsequently lost favorк If Malthus was wrongи then either there are no limits to growthи or technological progй ress can expand them foreverк One way to approach these issues is to first evaluate whether it is possible for all nations in the world to attain the current United States standard of living with current technologyи then consider the possible effects of techй nological progressк Existing results suggest that the current per capita ecological footprint of the United States дland and water areas required to sustain its actual productionи wasteи нфт | Reuveny and pollutionе is about five times larger than the world’s per capita bioйcapacity дavailй able biologically productive land and water areaек юy mid centuryи the world’s per capй ita bioйcapacity is expected to fall by about fifty percent due to population growth дWackernagel et al., нхххч Reuvenyи оммои оммсч Harrisи оммтек Reviewing studies on the number of people the Earth can carryи яohen днххсе shows that estimates clusй ter around р–нт billionи depending on the standard of living people are expected to maintainк He further shows that studies assuming the current United States standard of living for all nations conclude that our planet could support о–с billion peopleк In sumи it seems that with the current state of technology it is impossible to attain the current United States standard of living for the Earth’s populationк The issue of energy is particularly dauntingк эssuming there will be х–нм billion people by midйcentury and economic growth will continue at the current rateи world energy consumption will doubleк Where will this energy come fromы эs discussed in Trainer днххфеи Palfreman домммеи Hoffert домммеи Reuveny доммоеи and Harris доммтеи there is no magic solutionк Oil stocks will declineк яoal could power the world econй omy for several more centuriesи but would likely speed up climate changeк Even if methods were found that limit greenhouse gases from burning coalи they would not likely eliminate themк Wind and sun sources are irregularly available and require large areasи and the feasibility of a global hydrogen economy is unclearк Relying on biomass to power a global economy would require areas now allocated to agricultureи and the feasibility of nuclear fusion is debatable at bestк Only nuclear energy is a viable option to replace fossil fuels to power a global economyк Howeverи even if we ignore the problems associated with nuclear waste and securityи the known amounts of Uraй niumйопс дa metal used in the generation of nuclear energyе would not sustain the world for long at current consumption rates дHoffertи омммек яan perpetual economic growth be sustained with technological progressы яomй mercial liberals argue that people will find solutions to existing problems as they have done in the pastч there are no limits to economic growthк This argument is supported by using mathematical models assuming that people constantly generate technologiй cal progressи and progress continuously promotes total factor productivityи environй mentally friendly productsи less resource intensive productionи and new materials to replace depleted resourcesк Moreoverи it is assumed that all these new methods of productionи goodsи substitutesи and technologies have no bad side effectsи and social institutions and markets work smoothly and perfectlyк These assumptions lead to the commercial liberal conclusion that economic growth can continue forever almost by definitionи but they may not hold in the real яhapter хц On Free Tradeи яlimate яhangeи and the WTO | нфу worldк For exampleи relying on innovation and markets to deliver the solution assumes that actors know all the costs and benefitsк When property rights are not well develй opedи or when innovations exhibit public good characteristicsи actors become unsure of costs and benefitsк Solving complex global problems requires institutional changesи wealthи and expertiseи which are not readily available in LDяsк Innovation to alleviate climate change exhibits these very problemsк Moreoverи so far many other largeйscope projects have been deemed more important than alleviating relatively slow moving environmental problems such as climate changeи be it building an international space stationи accumulating nuclear weaponsи promoting consumerismи or fighting internaй tional warsк The nature of innovation is yet another issueк яommercial liberals assume that progress is always beneficial and has no boundsк Howeverи in realityи technologies can have adverse impacts and may die outк There can also be cognitive limits to unй derstanding the complex dynamic interactions of global ecologicalи socialи politicalи and economic forcesи leading to limits in technological advancesк For exampleи current energy technoйlogy causes climate changeк Energy e ciency has risen since the midй нхумs in Dяsи but this improvement has slowed downк эfter early successesи the reй sponse of crops to synthetic fertilizers is lesseningи and agricultural yields have fallen in many Green Revolution regionsк Facing these examplesи it seems that the effects of perpetual global economic growth may sooner or later lead to a reliance on wideй scope space colonizationк Howeverи the feasibility of a project of this magnitude in this century is unclearи to say the leastк These examples do not prove that innovation must stop in the future and that solutions will not be found eventuallyк Howeverи they suggest a need for caution when it comes to formulating public policies that assume perpetual and beneficial technological progressк T WTO AND CLIMATE CHANGE: THE ROAD AHEAD he gradual removal of trade barriers since нхрс has played a key role in the phenomenal growth in global tradeк эs long as exports faced significant trade barriersи they remained highly uncompetitive in the importing marketsк Once barriers were gradually removed under the auspices of the GэTTйWTO regimeи naй tional comparative advantages came into effectи pushing countries to specialize in producing what they do most e ciently or least ine cientlyи relative to others and exporting these goodsи while importing other goodsк The growth in trade promoted economic growthи which in turn lead to increased consumption and productionи proй moting more tradeк The effects of these forces on the environmentи as we have seenи are debated theoreticallyк Empiricallyи the period has seen an increased use of fossil нфф | Reuveny fuels to power the economic growth and larger productionи and this has accelerated global warming and climate change дIPяяи оммнaи оммуек яonsidering the role of the GэTTйWTO trade regime in addressing climate changeи many questions come to lightк юeyond its direct effect on trade liberalizationи what will be the effect of the WTO on climate changeы What is the likelihood of conflicts beй tween a Kyoto Protocolйbased climate change regime seeking to guard the environй ment and a GэTTйWTO trade regime seeking to promote free tradeы эnswering these questions is speculative because the bulk of climate change effects are expected in the futureи the Kyoto Protocol has not yet produced any substantial resultsи and the USи so far the chief contributor to climate changeи has failed to ratify the protocolк Neverthelessи analyzing the approach of the GэTTйWTO regime to the tradeйenй vironment nexus in the past can provide us insightsк Is it driven by considerations inй volving the EKя effectы Is it cognizant of the possibility that the direct effects of trade could harm the environmentы Is the WTO aware of studies arguing and demonstratй ing the impossibility of attaining the Dя standard of living for all the people on Earthы Is it cognizant of and condoning a situation in which the planet as a whole produces and consumes beyond its biological capacityи as reflected by its ecological footprintи in effect consuming and producing at the expense of future generationsы Is the WTO cognizant of the links moving from trade to climate change through economic growth and the use of fossil fuelsы Is the WTO approach motivated by the Precautionary Prinй cipleи which calls for avoiding potentially large damages to the environment even if the probability of adverse outcomes is less than нммбы These are all important quesй tions that can and should be addressed in future researchк э related question is whether the WTO slowed or prevented tradeйdriven environй mental degradation in the pastк For exampleи trade in some animals could diminish biodiversityи and trade in some products can damage the environment by intensifying pollution in one place or causing damages in anotherк Trade in fossil fuelsи timber from deforestationи and crops grown in deforested areas may promote climate change by increasing consumption of fossil fuels and by eliminating natural sinks of greenhouse gasesк In factи all trade flows generate greenhouse emissions due to transportation or productionк If the WTO has stood by as tradeйpromoted environmental degradation expandedи or rejected attempts to block itи we would be inclined to conclude that the GэTTйWTO trade regime may accelerate tradeйrelated activities that promote climate changeи or at least would not be useful in slowing them down and is not a good candidate for monitoring and enforcing tradeйrelated activities of a climate change яhapter хц On Free Tradeи яlimate яhangeи and the WTO | нфх regimeк In this caseи we would conclude that we need a new global institution for this purposeи for exampleи a World Environmental Protection эgencyк In contrast with this bleak possibilityи it is also possible that the WTO has been friendly to the environment and has rejected attempts to expand international trade at the expense of reducing environmental qualityк If the WTO has been a guardian of the environmentи including the environment in its policy considerationsи it is possible that they will continue to do so in the futureк In this caseи we may not need to diminish its ability to monitor and enforce a free trade regime framework and we might even seek to strengthen and expand itк This possibility seems particularly attractive since the Kyoto Protocol climate change regime seeks to slow the rate of climate change by instituting an international system for trading carbon emission permits and clean defense mechanismsк We might conclude that trade mechanisms devised to combat climate change be promoted and implemented by the current WTOк эny evaluation of the role of the WTO in environmental degradation must begin with the link between the design principles of the GэTTйWTO trade regime and the environmentк Restating our research questionи is this regime good for the environй mentы эnswering this question would further require conducting a set of systematic case studies focusing on the WTO policies in cases that brought environmental issues into the WTO normal deliberations and decision makingк яandidates for such studй ies include the followingц дне эssessing the actions of the WTO яommittee on Trade and the Environment дяTEеи which was established in нххс with a mandate to assess tradeйenvironment linkagesи and evaluating its effect on WTO policiesч дое эssessing relationships and links between the WTO and Multilateral Environmental эgreements such as those signed by countries to promote biodiversity or reduce the use of certain damaging materialsи some of which employ trade measures in enforcing their effects on the countries that signed themч дпе эssessing the WTO case law and jurisprudence pertaining to international trade disputes brought to the WTO courtи in which dispuй tants disagree on the legality of certain trade actions that arguably damage the enviй ronmentч and дре эssessing the WTO case law and jurisprudence in cases involving use of environmental policy to impose barriers on the entry of traded goods that damage the environment into another countryи which exporters argue reflect protectionismи not environmental policyк The assessment and evaluation of these cases is very important because they could suggest a policy direction for the global communityи pointing out the need for either strengthening and expanding the scope of the WTOи or alternativelyи scaling down the scope of the WTO and giving priority to the global environmentк For examй нхм | Reuveny pleи the global community could decide to create a new World Environmental Protecй tion эgency that would give priority to environmental considerations of trade policyк The potential impossibility of attaining the Dяstandard of living for all people on Earth with the current state of technology suggests that our analysis might conclude that the overall costsи over timeи from the WTO promotion of free international trade outweigh the overall benefitsк Should that be indeed the outcome of the proposed research agendaи it seems that we would need to reconsider the current global adherй ence to the idea of free international tradeи which was brought to the fore by comй mercial liberalismк эssuming that the current state of technology would essentially prevail in the coming decadesи sooner or later the promotion of free international trade would have to play second to the much more pressing need of mitigating cliй mate changeк This global shift in attitudes would bring the era of everйexpanding free international trade volumes and global economic system to a stopи at least until we find a way to completely disentangle the current link between global economic growth and climate changeк REFERENCES эntweilerи Wки яopelandи юк Rки and Taylorи Mк Sк оммнк Is Free Trade Good for the Environmentы эmerican Economic Review хнц фуу–хмфк юarbierи Eк юк оммнк The Economics of Tropical Deforestation and Land Useц an Introduction to the Special Issueк Land Economics ууц нсс–нунк яohenи Jк Eк нххск How Many People can the Earth Supportы New Yorkц Wк Wк Nortonк яoleи Mк эк омммк Trade Liberalizationи Economic Growth and the Environmentк яheltenhamц Edward Elgarк Deanи Jк оммок Does Trade Liberalization Harm the Environmentы э New Testк яanadian Journal of Economics псц фнх–фрок Dindaи Sк оммрк Environmental Kuznets яurve Hypothesisц a Surveyк Ecological Economics рхц рпн–рсск GэTT нххнк The GэTTц What It Isи What It Doesи General эgreement on Trade and Tariffsк Genevaц GэTTк Grossmanи Gки and Kruegerи эк юк нххпк Environmental Impacts of a North эmerican Free Trade эgreementк In Garberи Pк Mк дedкеи The UкSк—Mexico Free Trade эgreement дppк нп–стек яambridgeи Mэц MIT Pressк Harrisи Jк Mк оммтк Environmental Natural Resource Economicsц э яontemporary эpproachк юostonц Houghton Mi inк яhapter хц On Free Tradeи яlimate яhangeи and the WTO | нхн Hoffertи Mк омммк юeyond Fossil Fuelsк What’s Up with the Weatherк UкSкц Public юroadcast Serviceк URLц wwwкpbsкorgлwgbhлwarmingлbeyondк IPяя оммнaк яlimate яhange оммнц Impactsи эdaptationи and Vulnerabilityк Intergovernmental Panel on яlimate яhangeк URLц wwwкipccкchк IPяя оммнbк Special Report on the Regional Impacts of яlimate яhangeц эn эssessment of Vulnerabilityк Intergovernmental Panel on яlimate яhangeк URLц wwwкipccкchк IPяя оммук яlimate яhange оммуц The Scientific юasisк Intergovernmental Panel on яlimate яhangeк URLц wwwкipccкchк Kuznetsи Sк нхсск Economic Growth and Income Inequalityк эmerican Economic Review рсц н–офк Liи Qки and Reuvenyи Rк оммук The Effects of Liberalism on the Terrestrial Environmentк яonflict Management and Peace Science орц онх–опфк Lucasи Rк Eк юки Wheelerи Dки and Hettigeи Hк нххок Economic Developmentи Environmental Regulation and the International Migration of Toxic Industrial Pollutionц нхтм–нхффк In Lowи Pк дedкеи International Trade and the Environment дppк ту–фтек Washingtonи Dкякц World юankк Malthusи Tк нухфк эn Essay on the Principle of Populationк Penguinц New Yorkк OEяD нххрк The Environmental Effects of Tradeк Parisц Organization for Economic Development and яooperationк Palfremanи Jк омммк Frequently эsked Questionsк What’s Up with the Weatherк UкSкц Public юroadcast Serviceк URLц wwwкpbsкorgлwgbhлwarmingлetcлfaqsкhtml Panayotouи Tк омммк Economic Growth and the Environmentк яID Working Paper ст дppк н–ннфек яambrdigeи Mэц яenter for International Development and at Harvard Universityк Panayotouи Tк оммпк Economic Growth and the Environmentк Economic Survey of Europe оц рс–тук Genevaц United Nations Publicationsк Permanи Rки Maи Yки McGilvrayи Jки and яommonи Mк оммпк Natural Resource and Environmental Economicsк Londonц Pearsonч эddison Wesleyк Pugelи Tк эк оммук International Economicsк юostonи Mэц McGrawйHillк Reuvenyи Rк оммок Economic Growthи Environmental Scarcity and яonflictк Global Environmental Politics оц фп–ннмк Reuvenyи Rк оммск International Trade and Public Policyц The юig Pictureк In Robbinsи Dк дedкеи Handbook for Public Economics дppк умс–уроек New Yorkц Marcel Dekkerк Salvatoreи Dк оммтк International Economicsк New Yorkц John Wileyк Sternи Dк оммрк The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets яurveк World Development поц нрнх–нрпхк Suriи Vки and яhapmanи Dк нххфк Economic Growthи Trade and Energyц Implications for the Environmental Kuznets яurveк Ecological Economics осц нхс–омфк нхо | Reuveny Thompsonи Pки and Strohmи Lк эк нххук Trade and Environmental Qualityц э Review of the Evidenceк Journal of Environmental and Development сц птп–пффк Trainerи Tк нххфк Saving the Environmentц What it will Takeк Sydneyц UNSWк Wackernagelи Mки Onistoи Lки юelloи Pки яallejas Linaresи эки Susana Lopez Falfanи Iки Mendez Garciaи Jки Isabel Suarez Guerreroи эки and Guadalupe Suarez Guerreroи Mк нхххк National Natural яapital эccounting with the Ecological Footprint яonceptк Ecological Economics охц пус–пхмк яhapter хц On Free Tradeи яlimate яhangeи and the WTO | нхп Chapter 10 THE E-WASTE STREAM IN THE WORLD-SYSTEM R. Scott Frey Globalization and sustainability are contradictory tendencies in the current world-system. Consider the fact that transnational corporations transfer some of the core’s wastes to the peripheral zones of the world-system. Such exports reduce sustainability and put humans and the environment in recipient countries at substantial risk. The specific case of e-waste exports to Guiyu, China is discussed. The discussion proceeds in several steps. The nature of the e-waste trade is first examined. Political-economic forces that have increased e-waste trafficking to China are outlined. The extent to which this trade has negative health, environmental, and social consequences is outlined and the neo-liberal contention that such exports are economically beneficial to the core and periphery is critically examined. Policies proposed as solutions to the problem are critically reviewed. Keywords: eйwasteи recyclingи hazardous wastesи environmental justiceи sustainabilityи worldйsystems theoryи ecological unequal exchangeи capital accumulationк яhapter нмц The EйWaste Stream in the WorldйSystem | нхс T INTRODUCTION he editors of The Economist доммуц нре magazine made several observations about globalization recently that are worth quoting because they raise imporй tant questions about environmental justice and sustainability in an increasingly globalized worldк Sounding a bit like Marie эntoinetteи the editors wroteц …the best way of recycling waste may well be to sell it, often to emerging markets. That is controversial, because of the suspicion that waste will be dumped, or that workers and the environment will be poorly protected. Yet recycling has economics of scale and the transport can be virtually free-filling up the containers that came to the West full of clothes and electronics and would otherwise return empty to China. What is more, those who are prepared to buy waste are likely to make good use of it. Despite the internal consistency of their market logic and celebration of the curй rent global systemи globalization and environmental justice as well as sustainability can be seen as contradictory tendencies in the current worldйsystemк яonsiderи for instanceи the fact that centrality in the worldйsystem allows some countries to exй port their environmental harms to other countries дFreyи нххфaи нххфbи оммтaи оммтbи омноек Such exports increase environmental injustice and reduce sustainability by putй ting humans and the environment in recipient countries at substantial riskк The speй cific case of eйwaste exports to Guiyuи яhina is discussed in light of the contradictory tendencies mentionedк The discussion proceeds in several stepsк Environmental justice and sustainability in the worldйsystem are first examinedк This is followed by a discussion of the eйwaste trade in the worldйsystemк The extent to which this trade has negative healthи safetyи and environmental consequences in Guiyuи яhina is outlined and the neoйliberal conй tention that such exports are economically beneficial to the core and periphery is critically examinedк Policies proposed as solutions to the problem of eйwaste tra c in Guiyu and the worldйsystem are critically reviewedк The paper concludes with an asй sessment of the likelihood that existing ‘counterйhegemonic’ globalization forces will overcome the tensions between globalization and environmental justice and sustainй abilityк нхт | Frey ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE AND SUSTAINABILITY IN THE WORLD-SYSTEM T he worldйsystem is a global economic system in which goods and services are produced for profit and the process of capital accumulation must be continuй ous if the system is to survive дsee especially Wallersteinи оммр for the origins and nature of the worldйsystem perspective and Harveyи омнми for a recent discussion of continuous capital accumulation under capitalist relationsек Proponents of the perй spective conceptualize the worldйsystem as a threeйtiered systemи consisting of a coreи semiйperipheryи and peripheryк The worldйsystem is an open system that can be understood not only in ‘economй ic’ terms but also in ‘physical or metabolic’ termsц entry of energy and materials and exit of dissipated energy and material waste дFreyи нххфaч Hornborgи омннч Martinezй эlierи оммхч Riceи оммуи оммхек In factи the worldйsystem and globalization itself can be described or understood in terms of a process of ‘ecological unequal exchange’ дeкgки Hornborgи омннч Riceи оммуи оммхч or a process of ‘accumulation by extraction and contamination’ек Frey доммтaе has described the process of ecological unequal exchange in the following termsц • Wealth дin the form of materialsи energyи genetic diversityи and food and fiberе flows from the resource rich countries of the periphery to the industrialized countries of the coreи resulting often in problems of resource depletionлdegradation and pollution in the peripheral zones or the ‘resource extraction frontiers’к • The core displaces antiйwealth дentropy broadly definedе or appropriates carrying capacity or waste assimilation by transporting it to the global sinks or to the sinks of the periphery in the form of hazardous exportsк In other wordsи global sinks and the peripheral zones of the worldйsystem are essentially ‘wasteйdisposal frontiers’к This paper focuses on the transfer of hazards to the peripheral zones of the worldй systemи whether hazardous productsи production processesи or wastesи with a focus on eйwasteк Such hazards damage the environment and adversely affect human health through environmental and occupational exposureк Peripheral countries are particuй larly vulnerable to the risks posed by such hazards for several reasonsц limited public awarenessч a youngи poorly trainedи and unhealthy workforceч politically unresponsive state agenciesч and inadequate risk assessment and management capabilities and inй frastructure дeкgки Freyи оммтaек яhapter нмц The EйWaste Stream in the WorldйSystem | нху The core дconsumersи statesи and capital in various countriesе benefits from the transfer of hazards to the periphery while the periphery bears the costs associated with such exportsк Environmental justice and sustainability are enhanced in the core because environmental harms are displaced to the peripheryи while such export pracй tices increase environmental injustice and reduce sustainability in the peripheryк Risks associated with hazardous exports or environmental harms are distributed in an unй equal fashion within the peripheryц some groups дespecially the state and capitalе are able to capture the benefits while others дthose marginalized by genderи ageи classи raceлethnicityи and geoйspatial locationе bear the costs дsee Freyи оммтaек E-WASTE IN THE WORLD-SYSTEM Nature and Scope of E-Waste Eйwaste consists of discarded computersи cell phonesи televisionsи and other electrical and electronic products дsee Widmer et al. [оммс] for a review of existing definitions of eйwasteек This waste is a byproduct of the information and communication technolй ogyйinfrastructure underlying the world system’s social metabolismк Globalization is dependent дor ‘symbiotic’и to use Pellow’s [оммуц нфс] termе on information and comй munication technologyи most notably the computerк It is the computer in conjunction with the internet дand the global transport systemе that facilitates the transport of wealth to the core and antiйwealth to the peripheryи whether it is the movement of bauxite and iron ore from юrazil by large ocean going vessels дюunker в яiccantellи оммсе or the recyclingи incinerationи andлor disposal of eйwaste in яhinaк Eйwaste is growing more rapidly than other waste streams because the consumpй tion of electronic products is growing at an astonishing paceк Increased consumption of electronic products is due to the constant development of new electronic productsи planned obsolescenceи and falling prices throughout the developed worldк In нхуси for exampleи there was one computer per ниммм population in the USи but in омнм the number was over фмм computers per ниммм population дUnited Nations омнмек эnd it is expected that growth of computers will continue in the core and be overtaken by the developing countries in the next fifteen to twenty years дYu et al., омнмaек эnywhere from пм to см million tons of eйwaste are discarded each year in the worldйsystem дaccording to the юasel эction Network and Silicon Valley Toxics яoй alition [оммо] and the United Nations Environment Programme [оммх]ек Every yearи hundreds of thousands of old computers and mobile phones are dumped in landfills or burned in smeltersк Thousands more are exportedи often illegallyи from Europeи the нхф | Frey USи Japan and other industrialized countriesи to countries in эfrica and эsia дюhutta et al., омнмек Recipient countries include юangladeshи яhinaи Indiaи Malaysiaи Pakistanи the Philippinesи and Vietnam in эsia and Ghana and Nigeria in West эfricaк In factи it is esй timated that upwards of фм per cent of the US’s eйwaste is exported to these countries with хм per cent of the waste going to яhina дGrossmanи оммтц chк уек Eйwaste follows a path of least resistanceц it flows from the highly regulated core countries to low wage countries with limited health and environmental regulationк It is exported to countries for inexpensiveи labor intensive recyclingи incinerationи andл or disposal дюasel эction Network and Silicon Valley Toxics яoalitionи оммоч Nnoromи Osibanjoи в Ogwvegbulи омннч Tsydenova в юengtssonи омннек Valuable materials exй tracted from computers include copperи leadи plasticsи steelи and glassк The state and capital in яhina дand many peripheral countriesе want the ‘recycling’ industry for ecoй nomic reasonsи including the high demand for used parts and the increasing demand for materials to supply the growing manufacturing sectorк Guiyu Township in Guangdong Province is one of the major destinations for much of the eйwaste entering яhina and it the largest eйwaste recycling site in the worldйsystemк дTaizhou city is the second largest site in яhina and it is located south of Shanghaiке Guiyu is нмм miles northwest of Guanghou and has a population of apй proximately оммиммм people in seventeen villages дthe four main villages are Huameiи Longgangи Xianpengи and юeilinе дsee эppendix Figure н for the location of Guiyuек Once a rice producing areaи Guiyu became an eйwaste recycling center in the early нххмsи though its residents have a long history of waste collection stretching back to the early омth century when residents would collect duck feathersи scrap metalи and pig bones for saleк Guiyu is now home to an estimated нсмиммм eйwaste workers дinй cluding childrenи as well as commuters from nearby areasе engaged in eйwaste recyй cling дsee эppendix Figure оек Much of the eйwaste recycling that takes place in Guiyu consists of the dismantling of computers and related accessories imported from the USи Japanи яanadaи South Koreaи Europeи and Taiwan дюasel эction Network and Silicon Valley Toxics яoalitionи оммоч Grossmanи оммтц chк уч Sepulveda et al., омнмек Steps in Dismantling Computers юrokers based in Hong Kong and Taiwan sell the eйwaste to recyclers through eйwaste dealers in яhina who pay anywhere from рмм to смм dollars or more per ton for comй puters дGrossmanи оммтц chк уек The cost depends on the composition of the eйwaste дwhether circuit boardsи monitorsи printersи or the likeе and profit marginsк Several steps are followed once the eйwaste reaches its port of destination in Hong Kong or яhapter нмц The EйWaste Stream in the WorldйSystem | нхх Figure 1 Location of Guiyu, China Shantouи яhina дsee юasel эction Network and Silicon Valley Toxics яoalitionи оммоч Grossmanи оммтц chк уч Tsydenova в юengtssonи омннц сн–ссек • яomputers are trucked in after they are unloaded from container ships in their port of destinationк • яathode ray tubes are broken with hammersи exposing the toxic phosphor dust insideк The copper yokes are removed and sold to metal dealers дsee эppendix Figure пек • яircuit boards are cooked in woks over open charcoal fires to melt the lead solderи releasing toxic lead fumesк The lead solder is collected for metal dealersк омм | Frey Figure 2 Child on e-waste in South China • Large pieces of plastic are melted into thin rods and cut into small granules and sold to factories that make low quality plastic goodsк • Wires are stripped by hand or burned in open piles to melt the plastics to get at the copper and other metals inside дsee эppendix Figure рек • эcid baths are used to extract certain materials from microchips such as goldк Nitric and hydrochloric acids are used to release gold from plastic and other commodities and the acids are dumped into the local environmentк • Plastic casings are burnedи creating dioxins and furans—which are extremely hazardous to human healthк • Unwanted leaded glass and other materials are dumped in ditchesк • эcids and dissolved heavy metals are dumped directly into local waterwaysк юuyers from local factories and outside the area purchase the metals such as copй perи goldи aluminumи steelи and other commodities and sell them locally and nationallyк Health and Environmental Risks Associated with Computer Dismantling The average desktop computer contains valuable recyclable and hazardous materiй alsк эlumnumи copperи goldи steelи and platinumи as well as the more toxic lead are the яhapter нмц The EйWaste Stream in the WorldйSystem | омн Figure 3 Dismantling computers in South China most valuable materials дeкgки Williams et al., оммфц трруи Table нек Hazardous materiй als include heavy metalsи brominated flame retardantsи and many other toxic materiй alsч lead and cadmium and mercury in circuit boardsч lead oxide in яRTsч mercury in switches and flat screen monitorsч cadmium in computer batteriesч and persistent orй ganic pollutants дdioxinsи PVяsи and PэHsе in plastics дNnorom et al., омннч Tsydenova в юengtssonи омннек эs noted aboveи materials are extracted in an unsafe fashionк Recycling practices release toxins from hazadous materials and generate new onesк Open air incineration is used to recover copper in wiring and acid baths are used to extract metals such as copper and goldк Waste is dumped in irrigation canals and other waterwaysи includй ing the nearby Lianjiang River дSepulveda et al., омнмч Tsydenova в юengtssonи омннек омо | Frey Figure 4 Stripping Computer Wires in South China Working conditions are primitive and unsafeи and workers are exposed to toxic mateй rials but little safety equipment is availableк Labor conditions are grave for the workй ersц they work six day work weeks of twelve hours duration per day for limited pay and they have few rightsк яhild labor is quite common дюasel эction Network and Silicon Valley Toxics яoalitionи оммоч Grossmanи оммтц chк уек эvailable research indicates that human health and the environment are under assualt in Guiyu дsee the excellent reviews of the extant literature by Sepulveda et al., омнм and Tsydenova в юengtssonи омннек The airи soilи and water of Guiyu are contamiй nated with a range of toxic materialsи including leadи cadmiumи Pяюsи benzeneи and so on дюi et al., омнмч Tsydenova в юengtssonи омннек э study released in омму дHuo et al., оммуе found that a majority of the children sampled in Guiyu had blood levels of lead and cadmium many times higher than limits set by the US яenters for Disease яontrol and Preventionк э recent study дYang et al., омнне undertaken at the other major eй waste recycling site in яhinaи Taizhouи indicates that air samples from the area contain toxic particulate matter that can induce human DNэ damageк Exposure to these and related materials are extremely hazardous to human health and represent significant risks to other speciesи as well as the larger environment and surrounding human comй munitiesк яhapter нмц The EйWaste Stream in the WorldйSystem | омп э EVALUATING THE COSTS AND BENEFITS re the costs associated with the displacement of eйwaste recycling to Guiyu offй set by the economic and other benefits as proponents of neoliberalism дGrossй man в Kruegerи нххпи нххсе and some ecological modernization theorists дMolи оммне would suggestы эfter allи eйwaste recycling employs at least нсмиммм poor workй ers desperate for jobs in Guiyuк The materials and parts recovered are recycled and used domestically which reduces dependence on outside sourcesи reduces pollution associated with miningи provides needed capital for the economyи and reduces energy use and carbon dioxide emissionsк In additionи import duties on some of the incoming goods provide a revenue stream for government дsee Williams et al., оммфц тррх–трсм for a discussion of the benefits of computer exportsек эnswering the question raised above as noted elsewhere дFreyи оммтaе is problemй atic because it is di cult to identifyи estimateи and value the costs and benefits дespeй cially the costsе associated with hazards in monetary terms дseeи eкgки Freyи Mcяormickи в Rosaи оммуч Williams et al., оммфек Despite suggestions and efforts to the contrary дeкgки Loganи нххнеи there is no widely accepted factual or methodological basis for identifyingи estimatingи and valuing the costs and benefits associated with the flow of core hazards to the peripheryк Even if the consequences of hazardous exports could be meaningfully identified and estimatedи there remains the question of valuing them in monetary termsк Economists typically look to the marketplace for such a valuationи but adverse healthи safetyи environmentalи and socioйeconomic consequences are not traded in the marketplaceк Efforts have been made to deal with this problem by using either expert judgment or public preferencesи but such techniques are deeply flawed дsee Dietzи Freyи в Rosaи оммоч Fosterи оммоaек When he was яhief Economist of the World юankи Lawrence Summers днххне made the argument much like the editors of The Economist mentioned aboveи that displacing environmental harms to peripheral areas makes economic senseк He wrote in a World юank memoц ‘I think the economic logic behind dumping a load of toxic waste in the lowestйwage country is impeccable and we should face up to that’к Enviй ronmental harms should be sent to poor areas because ‘measurements of the costs of health impairing pollution depend on the forgone earnings from increased morbidity and mortalityк From this point of view a given amount of health impairing pollution should be done in the country with the lowest costи which will be the country with the lowest wages’к эs noted elsewhere дFosterи оммоbч Freyи оммтaч Puckettи оммтеи such reasoning undervalues nature and assumes that human life in the periphery is worth much less омр | Frey than in the core because of wage differentialsк эlthough most costs occur in the peй riphery and most benefits are captured by the core and elites located in the peripheryи the costs to the periphery are deemed acceptable because life is defined as worth so littleк In sumи it can be argued convincingly that the costs associated with the transfer of eйwaste to Guiyuи яhina дand elsewhereи for that matterе outweigh the benefitsк What is to be done? And who should Do It? The яhinese government banned imports of toxic eйwaste in оммо and has created additional regulations since then дas recently as January ни омнн [Moxley омнн]ч see also Yu et al. [омнмa] for a comprehensive reviewеи but the eйwaste continues to flow into the country and thousands of яhinese women continue to cook the core’s circuit boards over charcoal burners and the blood lead levels of children remain highк This is a result of lax enforcement of regulations due to bribes and corruptionк In turnи loй cal government o cials are evaluated by the central government in terms of overall economic growth in their areasи so there is a strong incentive for o cials to protect eйwaste activities since they contribute to the economic growth of the areaк эndи of courseи яhina’s growth machine requires large material inputs to sustain it and eй waste recycling is an important source for these materials дGrossmanи оммтч Yu et al., омнмbц ххо–ххри хххек э number of actors have emerged to challenge eйwaste recycling in яhinaк These include яhinese government o cials and яhinese NGOsк Pan Yueи Vice Minister of the Ministry of Environmental Protection дяMEPе of the People’s Republic of яhinaи has been an unwavering supporter of the environment at all levels дюyrnesи оммтек Pan has been very active in promoting partnerships between яMEP and various яhinese enй vironmental NGOsк It is increasingly clear that яhina дand other developing countries such as Indiaе are going to be confronted with drastic increases in eйwaste as domesй tic computer consumption increases in the next several decades which will further compound the eйwaste problem in яhina and elsewhere дsee Yu et al., омнмa for estiй mates of growth in computer consumption by different regions in the worldйsystemек What is being done to challenge eйwaste exports to яhina and elsewhere in the worldйsystemы The юasel яonvention on the яontrol of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal днхфхе is a multilateral agreement that was enacted in нхфх under the auspices of the United Nations Environment Programme дand its subsequent amendment to ban eйwaste export in нххс which has yet to be ratifiedек The яonventionи signed by нум countriesи requires that a country can only ship hazardous wastes if it has received written consent from the recipient countryк яhapter нмц The EйWaste Stream in the WorldйSystem | омс The яonvention has been ineffective in stopping the trade for several interrelated reaй sonsк The USи one of the world’s largest eйwaste exportersи has not signed the bill and thus the effectiveness of the яonvention has been undercutк The яonvention has been ineffective because illegal shipments of wastes are pervasive and a general lack of implementation at the border areas in яhinaк The United Nations Environment Programme доммси оммхе and international NGOsи including Greenpeace International and Greenpeace яhinaи Silicon Valley Toxics яoalitionи the юasel эction Networkи and others have been monitoring and studying export flows and actual conditions in and around the recycling centers in яhina and elsewhere дюasel эction Network and Silicon Valley Toxics яoalitionи оммоек The юasel эction Network has been particularly active in pressuring state authorities in the deй veloped countries to enforce higher standards дsee Puckettи оммтч wwwкbanкorgек The юasel эction Networkи other international organizationsи and analysts have made a number of specific recommendations for dealing with the eйwaste problem дseeи eкgки Grossmanи оммтц chк уч Nnoromи et al. омннч Pellowи оммуц омп–оорч Smithи Sonnenfeldи в Pellowи оммтч United Nations Environment Programmeи оммси оммхч Yu et al., омнмbек э sampling of these recommendations are listed belowц • э fully implemented global regime should be developed to regulate the movement of computer wasteк • The next generation of computers should be constructed to reduce healthи safetyи and environmental impacts at the time of decommissioning and increase capacity to upgrade computers over timeк • Endйofйlife electronics and greener design using fewer toxic materials and increased capacity for upgradesк • Extended Producer Responsibility дEPRе as a new paradigm in waste managementк The European Union’s Directive on Waste from Electrical and Electronic Equipment дWEEEеи along with the RoHs Directiveи were enacted into law in February оммп and came into force in оммрк The Directives require manufacturers and importers in the European Union countries to take back their products from consumers and ensure safe waste disposal or safe recyclingйreuseк Heavy metals дleadи mercuryи cadmiumи and chromiumе and flame retardants дpolybrominated biphenyls and polybrominated biphenyl ethersе were to be replaced with safer materialsк The directives have not been fully implemented дEuropean яommissionи оммоч Geiser в Ticknerи оммтек омт | Frey эfter years of failure to address the issue of eйwaste дsee Stephensonи оммфеи the US has moved forward in several areasк On November нси омнми President Obama issued a presidential proclamation on eйwaste recycling and the creation of an Interй agency Task Force of эgencies within the federal government ‘to prepare a national strategy for responsible electronics stewardshipи including improvements to Federal procedures for managing electronic products’к He indicated he wanted the Federal Government to lead дNevisonи омннек The report of the Task Force was released in July омннк The Task Force identified four major goalsи one of which centers on reducing ‘harm from US exports of eйwaste and improve safe handling of used electronics in developing countries’ through five specific actions дInteragency Task Force …и омннц о–пек • Improve information on trade flows and handling of used electronicsи and share data with Federal and international agenciesи within the limits of existing legal authoritiesк • Provide technical assistance and establish partnerships with developing countries to better manage used electronicsк • Work with exporters to explore how to incentivize and promote the safe handling of remanufacturedи recycledи and used electronics at home and abroadк • Propose regulatory changes to improve compliance with the existing regulation that governs the export of cathode ray tubes from used computer monitors and televisions that are destined for reuse and recyclingк • Support ratification of the юasel яonvention on the яontrol of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposalк Two Democratic Representatives дGene Green of Texas and Mike Thompson of яaliforniaе introduced the Responsible Electronic Recycling эct in the US House of Representatives on June оои омннк The bill would ban the export of certain restricted electronic waste exports to developing countriesк ‘The bill aims to stop UкSк compaй nies from dumping dangerous old electronics on countries where they are broken apart or burned by workers using few safety precautions’и said Texas Representative Gene Greenк It is reported that several computer manufacturers support the bill дMiй clatи омннек The юasel эction Network adopted a certification program in эpril омнм called the eйStewards Standard for Reasonable Recycling and Reuse of Electronic Equipmentк The program referred to as eйStewards яertification was established to facilitate reй sponsible disposal of eйwaste materialsк юasel эction Network announced on July си яhapter нмц The EйWaste Stream in the WorldйSystem | ому омнн that Intercon Solutions дa яhicago Heightsи Illinoisи electronics recyclerе would be the first company denied юэN’s eйStewards certificationи which aims to recognize eй waste recyclers operating responsiblyкн я CONCLUDING REMARKS ounterйhegemonic globalization or ‘globalization from below’ in the form of transnational networks of NGOs remains one of the most viable means for curbing the adverse consequences associated with the transfer of hazardous processes to the periphery дsee Freyи оммтaек Globalization from below may help reй duce or mitigate the worst abuses associated with the displacement of computer reй cycling and other environmental harms to the periphery as suggested by the concrete actions that have occurred in яhinaи the EUи and the US noted above дsee Yu et al., омнмaи омнмb and Williams et al., оммфи for a very insightful discussion of why the existing policies noted above are unlikely to solve the eйwaste problem in яhina and elsewhereек Stopping the core’s appropriation of the periphery’s carrying capacity is another matterи for this process is embedded in the structure of the current worldй systemк In other wordsи the process of ‘ecological unequal exchange’ between the core and periphery is necessary for continued capital accumulation in the coreк эnd it will be some time before environmental justice and sustainability are realized in the peй ripheral zones of the worldйsystem because of the contradictory tendencies between accumulation in the core and the role of the periphery as resource extraction frontier and waste disposal frontierк To put it another wayи the ‘metabolic rift’ дFosterи яlarkи в Yorkи омнме between the core and periphery is made invisible by globalization and the attendant market ideology espoused by proponents of the neoйliberal perspectiveи including the editors of The Economist cited at the beginning of the paperк REFERENCES юasel эction Network and Silicon Valley Toxics яoalition оммок Exporting Harmц The High Tech Trashing of эsiaк Seattleц юasel эction Networkк юasel яonvention on the яontrol of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposalк нхфхк URLц wwwкbaselкintлtextлdocumentsкhtmlк юhuttaи Mк Kк Sки Omarи эки and Yangи Xк омннк Electronic Wasteц э Growing яoncern in Today’s Environmentк Economics Research International омннц н–фк юiи Xки Simoneitи юк Rк Tки Zhenи Wки Wangи Xки Shengи Gки and Fuи Jк омнмк The Major яomponents of Particles Emitted during Recycling of Waste Printed яircuit юoards in a Typical EйWaste Workshop in South яhinaк эtmospheric Environment ррц рррм–рррск нк See wwwкbanкorgч wwwкeйstewardsкorgлcertificationйoverviewк омф | Frey юunkerи Sк Gки and яiccantellи Pк Sк оммск Globalization and the Race for Resourcesк юaltimoreи MDц The Johns Hopkns University Pressк юyrnesи Sк оммтк Person of the Yearц The Man Making яhina Greenк New Statesmanи Decemberи нфк URLц wwwкnewstatesmanкcomк Dietzи Tки Freyи Rк Sки and Rosaи Eк оммок Technologyи Riskи and Societyк In Dunlapи Rки and Michelsonи Wк дedsкеи Handbook of Environmental Sociology дppк пох–птхек Westportи яTц Greenwood Pressк Editors оммук Editorialк The Economistи Juneи хц нрк European яommission оммок Directive оммолхтлEя on Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipmentк URLц wwwкecкeuropaкeuлenvironmentлwasteлweeeлindexк Fosterи Jк юк оммоaк The Ecological Tyranny of the юottom Lineц The Environmental and Social яonsequences of Economic Reductionismк In Fosterи Jк юк дedкеи Ecology эgainst яapitalism дppк от–рпек New Yorkц Monthly Review Pressк оммоbк Let Them Eat Pollutionц яapitalism in the World 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WorldйSystems эnalysisц Theory and Researchк New Yorkц Routledgeк In pressк Freyи Rк Sки Mcяormickи Sки and Rosaи Eк эк оммук The Sociology of Riskк In юryantи як Dки and Peckи Dк дedsкеи The Handbook of the онst яentury Sociologyк Volк II дppк фн–фуек Thousand Oaksи яэц Sageк Geiserи Kки and Ticknerи Jк оммтк International Environmental эgreements and the Information Technology Industryк In Smithи Tки Sonnenfieldи Dк эки and Pellowи Dк Nк дedsкеи яhallenging the яhipц Labor Rights and Environmental Justice in the Global Electronics Industry дppк отм–оуоек Philadelphiaи Pэц Temple University Pressк Grossmanи Eк оммтк High Tech Trashц Digital Devicesи Hidden Topicsи and Human Healthк Washingtonи Dкякц Island Pressк яhapter нмц The EйWaste Stream in the WorldйSystem | омх Grossmanи Gк Mки and Kruegerи эк юк нххпк Environmental Impacts of a North эmerica Free Trade эgreementк In Garberи Pк Mк дedкеи The Mexico—UкSк Free Trade эgreement дppк нп–стек яambridgeи Mэц The MIT Pressк нххск Economic Growth and the Environmentк The Quarterly Journal of Economics ннмц псм–пуук Harveyи Dк омнмк The Enigma of яapital and the яrises of яapitalismк New Yorkц Oxford University Pressк Hornborgи эк омннк Global Ecology and Unequal Exchangeц Fetishism in a ZeroйSum Worldк New Yorkц Routledgeк Huoи Xки Pengи Lки Xuи Xки Zhengи Lки Qiuи юки Qiи Zки Zhangи юки Hanи Dки and Piaoи Zк оммук Elevated юlood Levels of яhildren in Guiyuи an Electronic Waste Recycling Town in яhinaк Environmental Health Perspectives ннси Julyи уц нннп–нннук Interagency Task Force on Electronics Stewardship омннк National Strategy for Eletronics Stewardshipк Washingtonи Dкякц Interagency Task Force on Electronics Stewardshipк Loganи юк Iк нххнк эn эssessment of the Environmental and Economic Implications of Toxicй Waste Disposal in SubйSaharan эfricaк Journal of World Trade осц тн–утк Martinezйэlierи Jк оммхк Social Metabolismи Ecological Distribution яonflictsи and Languages of Valuationк яapitalismи Nature 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эки and Pellowи Dк Nк дedsкеи яhallenging the яhipц Labor Rights and Environmental Justice in the Global Electronics Industry дppк оор–оппек Philadelphiaи Pэц Temple University Pressк Riceи Jк оммук Ecological Unequal Exchangeц International Trade and Uneven Utilization of Environmental Space in the World Systemк Social Forces фсц нптх–нпхок онм | Frey Riceи Jк оммхк The Transnational Organization of Production and Uneven Environmental Degradation and яhange in the World Economyк Journal of яomparative International Sociology смц онс–оптк Sepulvedaи эки Schluepи Mки Renaudи Fк Gки Streicherи Mки Kuehrи Rки Hagelukenи яки and Gereckeи эк як омнмк э Review of the Environmental Fate and Effects of Hazardous Substances Released from Electrical and Electronic Equipments During Recyclingц Examples from яhina and Indiaк Environmental Impact эssessment Review пмц оф–рнк Smithи Tки Sonnenfeldи Dк эки and Pellowи Dк Nк дedsке оммук яhallenging the яhipц Labor Rights and Environmental Justice in the Global Electronics Industryк Philadelphiaи Pэц Temple University Pressк Stephensonи Jк юк оммфк Electronic Wasteц Harmful UкSк Export Flow Virtually Unrestricted юecause of Minimal EPэ Enforcement and Narrow Regulationк Testimony before the Subcommittee on эsiaи the Pacificи and the Global Environmentи яommittee on Foreign эffairsи House of Representativesи Septemberи нук URLц wwwкgaoкgovк Summersи Lк нххнк Selections from a World юank Memoк The Economistи Februaryи фц ттк Tsydenovaи Oки and юengtssonи Mк омннк яhemical Hazards эssociated with Treatment of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipmentк Waste Management пнц рс–сфк United Nations омнмк World Development Indicatorsк URLц httpцллdataкunкorgлDataMartInfoк aspxЯWDIк United Nations Environment Programme оммск EйWasteи the Hidden Side of IT Equipment’s Manufacturing and Useк New Yorkц United Nationsк оммхк Recycling—From Eйwaste to Resourcesк New Yorkц United Statesк Wallersteinи Iк оммрк WorldйSystems эnalysisц эn Introductionк Durhamи Nяц Duke Universityк Widmerи Rки OswaldйKrapfи Hки SinhaйKhetriwalи Dки Schnellmannи Mки and юoniи Hк оммск Global Perspectives on EйWasteк Environmental Impact эssessment Review осц рпт–рсфк Williamsи Eки Kahhatи Rки эllenbyи юки Kavazanjianи Eки Kimи Jки and Yuи Mк оммфк Environmentalи Socialи and Economic Implications of Global Reuse and Recycling of Personal яomputersк Environmental Science and Technology роц тррт–трсрк Yangи Fки Jinи Sки Xuи Yки and Luи Yк омннк яomparisons of ILйфи ROS and pсп Responses in Human Lung Epithelial яells Exposed to Two Extracts of PMокс яollected from an EйWaste Recycling эreaи яhinaк Environmental Research Letters тц н–тк Yuи Jки Williamsи Eки Juи Mки and Shaoи яhк омнмaк Forecasting Global Generation of Obsolete Personal яomputersк Environmental Science and Technology ррц попо–попук Yuи Jки Williamsи Eки Juи Mки and Shaoи яhк омнмbк Managing EйWaste in яhinaц Policiesи Pilot Projects and эlternative эpproachesк Resourcesи яonservation and Recycling срц ххн– хххк яhapter нмц The EйWaste Stream in the WorldйSystem | онн Chapter 11 GREAT POWER POLITICS FOR AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT: AN OVERVIEW ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF THE EU’S AND CHINA’S COOPERATION WITH THE CONTINENT Zinsê Mawunou and Chunmei Zhao After the African countries got independence, the European Union (formerly the EEC) and China had shown a willingness to contribute to the improvement of socioeconomic development of Africa with series of measures for its socio-economic prosperity through a partnership that has evolved for a long time. While the long way of the EU countries position has been challenged by China’s unprecedented implication on the continent, African countries have been taking advantage of this situation to improve their economic situation during recent years. This article analyzes this statement by exposing firstly a background introduction to the EU– Africa diverse agreements and conventions, on the one hand, and the present Chinese strategy of cooperating with Africa, on the other, in order to highlight the opportunities offered to the continent through this cooperation. Secondly, the article presents economic implications of these actors’ involvement in Africa based on the optimistic approach of the EU’s and China’s partnership with Africa. It finally concludes with some suggestions to those actors as well as to African countries emphasizing that even though the EU’s and China’s partnership with Africa does move Africa in the right direction it still has some gaps. Keywords: эfrica’s developmentи cooperationи Sinoйэfricaи EUйэfricaк яhapter ннц Great Power Politics for эfrica’s Development | онп W INTRODUCTION hen эfrican countries got independenceи the ambition of their liberation movement leaders was to ensure the development of their countries in evй ery sectorк Facing with many challenges in the postcolonial eraи this ambiй tion was di cult to achieve due to the scarcity of resourcesк Thereforeи the EU and яhina decided to help эfrican countries and support their emerging economies by making available ways to achieve their goalsк The logic led to the signing of agreeй ments and conventions between the EU and the эяP countriesн and also to various яhinese development programs that are considered to be a good opportunity for эfй rica to raise its economic level and launch sustainable development programsк Thereй foreи what are the approaches from both the EU and яhina to эfrica’s development agendaы Theoreticallyи liberalism appropriate with the logic of the arguments develй oped in this article will be used to understand and get a meaningful explanation to the issues of the articleк Soи the first part is the inventory of the different steps from the EU and яhina towards эfrica’s developmentк This inventory is important in the context of this paper because it highlights different strategies of the EU and яhina for the development of эfrica especially the financial ways made available to increase the opportunity for development of the continentк The second part is a discussion aimed at differentiating the nature of the EU and яhina partnership with эfrica by showing how each of them contributes to the improvement of эfrica’s developmentк Finallyи the article concludes by clearly exposing its position and raises some suggestions to both players for a mutually beneficial economic relation with эfrican countriesк COOPERATION WITH AFRICA: STRATEGIES FROM THE EU AND CHINA ю oth sides are willing to boost эfrica’s economic situation through cooperationк On the EU partи strategies take the form of agreements and conventionsи while яhina also has its own way of dealing with эfricaк Introductory Background of Conventions and Agreements between the EU and Africa The Yaoundé Conventions эfter gaining their independence in the early нхтмsи some эfrican countries negoй tiated with the European яommunity the continuity of their preferential economic relationsи ushering the formula of economic partnership between the EU and эfrica нк эfricaйяaribbeanйPacificк онр | Mawunou в Zhao дGreenidgeи нххуек The European яommunity дthat later became the European Unionе and the group of эfrican countriesи joined later by the яaribbean and Pacific countries decided to establish a framework for economicи cultural and political cooperationк The first agreements between European and эfrican countries took shape in Yaoundéо where two conventions were heldи namely Yaoundé I and IIкп The goals of the assoй ciation were the diversification and industrialization of these countries’ economy to ensure a better stability and strengthen their independenceк The means used were granting financial aid and special customs regimesк In allи there had been Yaoundé I and Yaoundé IIк The Convention of Yaoundé I Under Yaoundé Iи signed in July нхтп дFaber в Orbieи оммуеи only нф эfrican countries were signatoriesк This яonvention planned дprimarily for the benefit of the эMSэер aid for development дthat was called ‘technical and financial assistance’е and trade preferй encesк It is interesting to note that the dispositions of Yaoundé related to trade were based on principles of nonйreciprocityи thus addressing commercial arrangements of the preйindependence periodк To this endи the EDFс of Yaoundé I amounted to упмкр million euro дMorzellecи оммнек There were various bodies forming the associationц the эssociation яouncilи the эssociation яommittee and a Parliamentary яonference дSteen в Danauи оммтек Six years after this conventionи Yaoundé I was followed by Yaoundé IIк ок Name of яameroon capital where these agreements were signedк пк It is important to note here that the Yaoundé яonventions were preceded by what is called the asй sociation regimeк Indeedи countries that signed the Treaty of Rome днхсуе had expressed their solidarity on this occasion with coloniesи countries and overseas territories and undertook to contribute to their prosperityк Thusи the fourth part of this treaty considered the creation of the European Development Fund дEDFе to grant technical and financial assistance to those colonies and overseas territories which had historical links with the European countriesк It was called at that time Regime of эssociationк юut this article does not focus on that Treaty for two reasonsк Firstи at that period it was only a treaty beй tween European countries without participation of any эfrican coloniesч secondи эfrican colonies had not yet attained their sovereigntyи at least the major partи while this paper focuses on the independent эfrican countriesк In this senseи it is unnecessary to develop the association regime hereк рк эfrican and Malagasy States эssociatedк ск EDFц European Development Fundк In generalи the EDF funding are divided as followsц First EDFц нхсх–нхтрч Second EDFц нхтр–нхум дYaoundé I яonventionеч Third EDFц нхум–нхус дYaoundé II яonй ventionеч Fourth EDFц нхус–нхфм дLomé Iеч Fifth EDFц нхфм–нхфс дLomé IIеч Sixth EDFц нхфс–нххм дLomé IIIеч Seventh EDFц нххм–нххс дLomé IVеч Eighth EDFц нххс–оммм дLomé IV bisеч Ninth EDFц оммм–омму дяotonou эgreementеч Tenth EDFц оммф–омнпдяotonou эgreementек See яooperation эяP л European яommissionи Financing Instruments European Development Fundи URLц httpцллwwwкconfedmaliкgovкmlл acpue_fedкphpи accessed ф December омнмк яhapter ннц Great Power Politics for эfrica’s Development | онс The Convention of Yaoundé II The Second Yaoundé яonventionи signed in July нхтхи aimed at increasing the Euй ropean Development Fund дEDFе resources for development projectsи which rose to ффукп million euro дMorzellecи оммнек It is important to note that it was from Yaounйdé II that the signatories of agreements between Europe and эfrica began to increaseи for exampleи it was under Yaoundé II that countries like Kenyaи Tanzania and Uganй da decided to join the эяP group дKaringi et al., оммсек Howeverи the peak enlargeй ment of signatories of the agreements between Europe and эfrican countries and the strengthening of partnership between both partners started from нхус through the various Lomé яonventionsк The Lomé Conventions Since its first agreement signed in нхуси the Lomé яonvention had evolved and the яonvention of нхус was renewed four timesк эfter the expiration of the first convenй tion in нхфми the second яonvention took over until нхфск The third one covered the period of нхфс–нххм and the last oneи the fourth яonventionи covered a whole decadeи from нххм to оммми and has been revised at midйtermк Totallyи the successive Lomé яonventions lasted ос years running from нхус to омммк Important amendments have been introduced in the partnership between the EEя and эfrica after the expiration of Yaoundé яonventions and the introduction of the first Lomé яonvention in February нхуск Since thenи the EEя had experienced its first major enlargement including the entrance of the UK in нхупч thusи the adherence of the United Kingdom to the EEя strongly encouraged some эnglophone countries to undertakeи tooи the privileged partnership with the EEяк The эяP group has since been expanded to рт members with the participationи for the first timeи of the яaribbean and Pacific countriesк The Lomé I Convention The first Lomé яonventionи signed in February нхуси was largely inspired from the Yaoundé II яonventionк It was characterized by its contractual natureи its principles of partnership and its various aspects related to aidи trade and politicsк яoncretelyи the EU granted favorable access conditions to its market for эяP countries productsи which were not obliged to grant similar concessions to European exportersк The main innovation of this яonventionи said Steen and Danau доммте was to introduce a stabiliй zation system of export income for agricultural productsи STэюEXт and the sugar proй tocolк The рth EDF of Lomé Iи which was preceded by that of the эssociation Regime дEDF не and the two EDF дEDF о and пе of the Yaoundé яonventionsи received a foundй тк STэюEXц Stabilization System of Export Earnings from эgricultural Productsк онт | Mawunou в Zhao ing budget of more than EяU п billionку The second Lomé Convention (Lomé II) The second Lomé яonvention signed in нхфм was the logic extension of the first Lomé яonventionк Obviouslyи Lomé II also introduced innovations compared to the previous agreementч the most important being the establishment of SYSMINф for countries that rely heavily on mine products and record export lossesк Lomé II днхфм–нхфсе also foй cused on strengthening infrastructure and its funding increased to EяU ркуос billionк The third Lomé Convention (Lomé III) In нхфс the third Lomé яonvention occurredк It intervened at the time when there were serious questions on the effectiveness of aid to developmentк One can see an emergence of the political dimension and the introduction of other dimensionsк In this conventionи there was also the issue about ‘human dignity’ since a new fund was creй ated and intended to help refugees and the тth EDF got a funding of EяU укр billion дKaringi et al.и оммсе and was directed to development programs especially in the rural sectorк The Lomé IV and Lomé IV bis The last agreement signed in Lomé under the эяPйEU partnership was the Lomé IV яonvention in нххми which was reviewed in нххск For the first timeи the Lomé яonvenй tion took a political aspect and the respect of Human Rights became a fundamental term of эяPйEU cooperationк This яonvention strengthened the political dimension and introduced conditions and sanctionsк Thenи the violation of those principles led to partial or total suspension of development aidк эnother innovation of this convention concerned the structural adjustmentи debtи role of the private sectorи environmentи deй mography and decentralized cooperationк In generalи the уth EDF дunder Lomé IVе got ннксфп billion euro and the фth EDF дunder Lomé IV bisе received нпкнсн billion euroи which was an envelope of оркупр billion euro for Lomé IV projectsк The Cotonou Agreement The signing of the яotonou эgreement happened within a peculiar context that had significant effects on the contentи principles and ideas this agreement containedк ук EяUц European яurrency Unit is the predecessor of the Euroк It was equivalent to п pounds and дin Franceе from нхтм н EяU щ с silver francsк фк SYSMINц System of Stabilization of Export Earnings from Mining Productsк яhapter ннц Great Power Politics for эfrica’s Development | ону Context of the signing of the Cotonou Agreement The яotonou эgreement was signed when important changes had been taking place on the international arenaк The fall of the communist bloc and the end of the яold war introduced major changes in international relationsи because the concept of deй mocracy and market economy suddenly became the dominant ideology and many эfrican countries embraced those conceptsк эnother effect of the fragmentation of the яommunist block was the emergence of new states in Eastern Europe having the ambition to join the EUк This group of new countries faced serious problems during their transition to the market economy and to the democratic systemи so the EU felt the responsibility to assist them during the transitionк It was in this context that aid programs were created to support the development of яentral and Eastern European States дMorzellecи оммнек эt the same timeи globalization was gaining ground and the world was becoming increasingly interdependentк юut эfrican countries in particular appeared to be the big losers in this process with a decline in international tradeи investment and productionк Parallel to these eventsи there was growing a concern on human rightsк The Cotonou Agreement and its innovations On June опи оммм in яotonouх there was signed a new partnership agreement within EUйэяP for a period of ом years to be reviewed each five yearsк It was at яotonou that the free trade agreements called ‘Economic Partnership эgreements’ дEPэе emergedи replacing the existing nonйreciprocal preference systemк It was the end of the asymй metric and joint partnership conventions of Yaoundé and Loméц preferences became reciprocalк The financial protocol of the яotonou эgreement had a total budget of нпкф billion euro for the хth EDF дEU яouncilи омммек Howeverи the real resources for the period оммм–омму amounted to оскн billion euroи due to the consolidation of all EDF дresidues from previous EDFе and some founds of the European Investment юank дEIюе that can be used for investment purposes дGahamanyi et al.и оммрек Finallyи the нмth EDF доммф–омнпе received a funding of оокф billion euro and this was for a fiveй years’ periodкнм Overallи the хth and нмth EDF in the context of яotonou эgreement have mobilized a total funding of пткт billion euro without the leftovers of previous programsк хк Economic capital of юenin Republicк нмк EU яountry в Regional Programming to эяP countriesк URLц httpллцwwwкacpйprogra mmingкeuл wcmлч accessed оо December омнмк онф | Mawunou в Zhao Conventions and Agreements Characteristics Yaoundé I Lomé II яhapter ннц Great Power Politics for эfrica’s Development | онх €887.3 millions I More than 3 billion Ecu II 4.725 billion Ecu III 7.4 billion Ecu IV and IV bis Cotonou €24.734 billion Budget €730.4 millions Terms – massive support from other African countries; – discriminatory – economic non-reciprocal diversiication and trade agreement; industrialization of – non– priority to – political – priority to the the countries; discriminatory agriculture dimension construction of – the introduction – operating with reciprocal trade and rural and respect roads, bridges, SYSMIN; various joint preferences; development; for human hospitals, and – expanded areas bodies; – membership of – issue of rights; schools; of intervention – non-discriminatory three African ‘human – structural – introduction trade preferences countries dignity’ adjustment STABEX; based on recipro– establishment city of the Sugar Protocol; – addition of joint institutions Table 1 Summary of the different conventions and agreements €36.6 billion (9th and 10th EDF) replaced the existing nonreciprocal preference system Chinese Strategy of Cooperation with Africa The cooperation between яhina and эfrica has a long history and evolved through many phasesк The shifts in яhina’s эfrican policy are closely interlinked with domestic development strategies as well as international eventsк эccordingly in modern history яhina’s эfrican policy has passed through roughly three phasesк The Evolution of Sino-African Development Cooperation, 1955–1979 In factи яhina started its aid to эfrica almost at the same time when the Western aid programmes started—in the early нхсмsк To be preciseи яhina’s aid to эfrica and other developing countries started after the юandung яonference of нхсс and was guided by The Five Guiding Principles of яhinese aidи set out by Premier Zhou Enlai during the Indiaйяhina bilateral negotiationsк юut with regard to эfricaи these principles includedц • Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrityч • Mutual nonйaggressionч • Nonйinterference in each other’s internal affairsч • Equality and mutual benefitsч • Peaceful coexistenceк яhina not only supported эfrican liberation movements дTaylorи оммте but also provided a great deal of economic assistance on a grant basis despite the fact that яhina itself was a struggling developing country with a few resourcesк юetween нхуп and нхухи for exampleи aid to эfrica amounted to ткхо per cent of яhina’s GDP annuй allyи and fortyйfour эfrican countries had signed economic and technical cooperation protocols with яhinaк It was during that first phase that яhina constructed the Tanй zania—Zambia railwayк Despite the increasing allocation of aid to эfrica during that periodи яhina avoided the term ‘aid’ in its cooperation with эfricaч instead яhinese o cials preferred to use the language of solidarity and friendship—a situation quite different from the often paternalistic Western aid language of poverty reduction and democratizationк The original Five Guiding Principles were later replaced by яhina’s Eight Principles of Economic and Technical эidи which Premier Zhou Enlai announced on January нси нхтр during his visit to fourteen эfrican countriesк The additional guiding principles emphasized thatц яhinese technical assistance should build local capacitiesи and яhiй nese experts working in эfrica should have the same standard of living as the local оом | Mawunou в Zhao expertsч economic cooperation should promote selfйreliance and not dependencyч and respect for the recipient’s sovereignty should mean imposing no ‘political or ecoй nomic conditions’ on recipient governmentsк эs a result of these diplomatic effortsи the number of эfrican countries recognizing яhina grew to thirtyйseven by the early нхумsк юetween нхум and нхуси some sixteen эfrican heads of states visited яhinaк эt the same timeи яhinese aid to эfrica grew from ароф million in нхтт to nearly анкх bilй lion in нхуук Moreoverи with the death of Mao Zedong and the subsequent policy shift towards economic modernization under the leadership of Deng Xiaopingи яhina entered a new era in world politicsи culminated in the establishment of formal diplomatic relations with the United States in нхухк China-Africa Relations in the Post-1970s Reform Period In the early нхфмs the policy of modernization and economic reform became the centerpiece of яhina’s яommunist Party under Premier Deng дTaylorи оммтек This peй riod saw the announcement of the new Four Principles on Sinoйэfrican Economic and Technical яooperation in нхфп by Premier Zhao Ziyang дDaviesи оммуе based on equalityи mutual benefitи pursuing practical results by adopting a variety of meansи and seeking common developmentк Within the scope of the Eight Principlesи these new adjustments were prompted by the weakening of ideological conditions and increasй ing attention was given to economic relations and the strengthening of humanitarian aid supportк Following these policy adjustmentsи яhina supported more than two hundred inй frastructure projects in эfrican countries in the нхфмsк The overall number of projects in эfrica and West эsia exceeded оитмми amounting to USаскт billionк In factи between нхум and нхути яhina committed USанифнс million aid to эfrica дTaylorи оммтек The Post-1990 Reforms In the нххмsи эfrican countries accelerated the process of multiparty democracy and the liberalization of the economy under the watchful eyes of the IMF and the World юankк With the trend towards liberalization and privatization in full swingи the яhinese government realized that it would no longer be possible to insist on traditional coй operation between governmentsи that development aid should be directed towards яhapter ннц Great Power Politics for эfrica’s Development | оон invigorating private sector development in эfrica and that the new policy should also enroll the participation of яhinese enterprise in эfrican marketsк The new approach then was consistent with яhina’s broad economic trade strategy of exploiting the opй portunities made possible by the process of economic globalization дLinи нххтц пп–птек The second important reform was the decision to grant interestйfree loans and subsidized export credits to эfrican countries in order to promote яhinese trade and investment in эfricaк The results of these reforms are numerousк эccording to Weston et al. домннц уеи яhinese government’s pledges and anй nouncements of bank loans and deals indicate that яhina’s assistance to эfrica is growing rapidlyи especially since the нххмsк эccordinglyи яhina’s эpril омнн Foreign эid White Paper reported that эfrica was the destination for рску per cent of яhinese aid in оммхк The New York University Wagner School дIbidке reported яhinese investй ment projects and aid in эfrica to be анм million in оммои афпф million in оммпи аокп billion in оммри ар billion in оммси ах billion in оммти and анф billion in оммук Deborah юrautigamи a scholar of яhinaйэfrica relationsи reported that ExportйImport юank of яhina pledged аом billion in loans from омму–оммх дcited in Weston et al.и омннц уек She noted thatи commercial deals and loans asideи яhina’s ODэ to эfrica was анкр bilй lion in оммук Since thenи Premier Wen Jiabao has pledged an additional анм billion in lowйinterest loans to эfrican states in оммх–омнок эlsoи some сфс яhinese enterprises received approval by the яhinese authorities to invest in эfrica in оммок South эfrica had хф approvalsи amounting to аннх million in valueк Other important яhinese FDI destinations in эfrica include Tanzaniaи Ghanaи and Senegal дюroadmanи оммуек юy the end of оммми the яhinese had established рхх companies in эfrica with a total contractual investment of аххм millionи of which атфм million was яhinese capital дTaylorи оммтек Impact of the EU’s and China’s Cooperation on Africa The EU’s and яhina’s presence in эfrica is highly admired both as an opportunity that эfrica should grasp to get a place into the international economy and also as a chance to improve its developmentк Some cases are selected to analyze the effects of the EU partnership with эfricaи followed by the яhinese effects on эfricaк The EU Case First of allи one should mention that for the only year of омму дunder the хth EDFеи эfй rica received the funding of октхр billion euro from a total sum of пкр billion дiкeки ухкор ооо | Mawunou в Zhao per centе дsee Figure нек This investment has funded several projects on the continentк This means that эfrica got the bulk of projects to be financially supported by the EUк Of a total of нфр projects for funding consideration by the EUи эfrica had нсм projй ects дDelcoustalи оммфе corresponding to фнксо per cent regionally divided as followsц West эfrica—умч East эfrica—омч яentral эfrica—пуч Southern эfrica—опк One of the considerations of the яotonou эgreement дunder the нмth FEDе is to allow greater regional integration through the formation of trading blocsк Supportй ing the existing subйregional institutionsи the EU has placed special emphasis on strengthening these institutions as a relay and a tool for its policy of assistance to Figure 1 The commitments for 2007, Geographical Distribution Figure 2 Budgetary allocations for regional and national programs for ACP countries яhapter ннц Great Power Politics for эfrica’s Development | ооп эfricaк Indeedи the objectives of strengthening regional blocs are multipleк It could alй low many of these countries to overcome the obstacles posed by their relatively small domestic marketч then at the regional levelи it provides institutional capacity and huй man resources to adjust their technical and administrative insu cienciesк эnd finallyи the regional approach may allow эfrican countries to pursue their interests with more confidence and strengthк Moreoverи the terms and obligations of membership of an ambitious program of reforms within a regional organization also facilitate the task for national leaders to implement politically di cult measuresи such as reducing rates of protection or the establishment of largeйscale reform of regulatory and judicial sysй temsк In additionи monitoring at a regional level a dialogue among partners helps to reduce the risk of slipping to macroeconomic termsк In this perceptiveи these institutions have an ability to negotiate and receive fundй ing for implementation of projects for countries in the regionк This article explores the case of EяOWэS and the effect of agreements on the development of this regionк The Case Study of West Africa Even if EяOWэS is a minor trading partner for the EU дabout о per cent of its tradeеи the EU is a privileged trading area of EяOWэS countriesк эbout half of imports and exports of EяOWэS member countries in fact concern the EUк эgricultural and food products represent a significant proportion of total of EяOWэS exports to the EU доф per centеи and the imports of the EяOWэS from the EU днт per centек эmong the EяOWэS countriesи яôte d’Ivoireи Ghanaи and Nigeria produce фп per cent of food exports from the region to the EUк The following Table о presents the inventory of the EU–EяOWэS trade in оммо and shows that such a scale of trade increases competitivenessи the flow of European direct investmentи intraйregional flows and increased trade volumeк Individually and in some key sectorsи the economy of some West эfrican counй tries has improved through the implementation of the regional agreements within the EU–эfrica partnershipк For exampleи in Senegalи fishing became the first sector of the economy from years of drought and the farm crisis дGahamanyi et al., оммсек Indeedи fishing helps both to reduce the deficit balance of payments and unemployment as well as to supply the population’s needs in proteinк For a total turnover of пмм billion FяFэиннfishing generates an estimated value of нмм billion FяFэи or нн per cent of total GDP and окп per cent of primary total GDPк Moreoverи the authorities pay special atй tention to the fisheries sector to restore the trade balanceи chronically in deficitк Since ннк The яFэ Franc дFяFэе is the currency of several эfrican countries that constitutes the franc zoneк оор | Mawunou в Zhao Category of products Agricultural products Raw materials Manufactured products Total EU exports to ECOWAS ($ million) In % EU imports from the ECOWAS ($ million) In % 1,864 17.0 2,902 31.3 806 7.3 5,231 56.4 8,301 75.7 1,147 12.3 10,971 100.0 9,280 100.0 Table 2 Structure of trade between the EU and ECOWAS in 2002 (in millions US $ and percentage) нхфти the fisheries sector ranks first in exports exceeding peanut products and phosй phates handsets by providing nearly a third of the value of overseas salesк Fishery now generates nearly нммиммм direct jobs for nationals and over хм per cent by artisanal fishingк It also creates many related jobs and occupies nearly нс per cent of the labor force in Senegalи which is about тммиммм peopleк We should note that the whole эfrica has had roughly the same pattern in coopй erating with the EU as in the case of West эfricaк Figures н and о have shown itк The funds allocated to эfrica are spread across the continent according to the level of deй velopment of the economic blocs as stipulated by the яotonou эgreementsк The Chinese Case яhinese presence in эfrica is notable in various areas such as tradeи socialи infrastrucй ture buildingи peacemaking and peace buildingк юut hereи few cases will be selectedи namely tradeи infrastructure building and a new developmental model based on яhiй nese Special Economic Zones experience to illustrate the impact of яhinese involveй ment on эfricaк Chinese Trade with Africa With its status as a ‘latecomer’ in investment in эfricaи яhina does not seem to be handicapped by thisк яontrary to all expectationsи it becomes эfrica’s third largest trading partner after the USэ and France дэlden оммуек Twoйway tradeи which stood at less than USанм billion in оммми surged to over USасм billion by the end of оммт дsee Figure пек Within the same period яhina’s share of эfrica’s exports jumped from окт to over хкп per cent and it has become the leading trading partner for several countries of the continent’s commodityйbased economiesк яhapter ннц Great Power Politics for эfrica’s Development | оос эs shown in Figure пи яhina’s trade with эfrica has been growing from the midй нххмs to оммтк It also shows that for the same period the trading value increased from approximately USаркс billion to USанм billion in оммти meaning the яhinese partnerй ship with эfrica produced good result in the trading sectorк Howeverи this figure is not equally distributed on the continentк In эfricaи there are countries that have deeper trading relations with яhina than others as the following Figure р showsк This clearly shows the proportion of яhinese trading partners in эfrica in оммти эngola being the first and юenin Republic the tenthк эnd this top ten accumulated уф per cent of the whole яhinese trade with эfricaк эccording to Rotberg доммфе anй other group of seven countries дэngolaи Egyptи яongoи Ghanaи South эfricaи Tanzaniaи and Ugandaеи which the яhinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited in the summer of оммти had a combined trade volume of over апф billion with яhinaи or соко per cent of total яhineseйэfrican trade in оммук Infrastructure Building The renovation and extension of infrastructure were sorely neglected throughout the continent during the final decades of the twentieth centuryи when trade and aid to эfrica were dominated by Euroйэmerican partnersк Howeverи яhina has committed to participate in the refurbishmentи the building and extension of the infrastructure netй works throughout the эfrican continentк Figure 3 China’s trade with Africa, 1995–2006 оот | Mawunou в Zhao Figure 4 China’s top ten trade partners in Africa, 2006 In this respectи яhinese дreеdevelopment of roadsи railroadsи portsи and airports are also яhinese priorities by cooperating with эfricaк To take but one exampleи the colonial construction and contemporary яhinese reconstruction of the юenguela rail line in эngolaи which runs from the эngolan coast directly eastwards toward the rich mining zones of the Democratic Republic of the яongo and Zambia illustrates such largeйscale яhinese projects in эfrica дRotbergи оммфек эs part of its massive effort to redevelop эngolan infrastructure that was devastated by the decadesйlong civil warи in оммр яhina extended ао billion in soft loans to эngolaк Special Economic Zones The яhinese Special Economic Zones дSEZsе originated at the Forum on яhina–эfrica яooperation дFOяэяе summit held in юeijing in November оммти which was attended by over forty эfrican heads of stateк юy deciding to export its experience of Special Economic Zones to эfricaи яhina believes these zones will provide the liberalized inй vestment environments focused on strategic industries to attract foreign companiesк The model of special geographical zones where investing companies enjoy preferenй tial economic policies is by no means uniqueк Numerous эfrican governments have established or are establishing such zones in their countries in an attempt to attract foreign direct investment дFDIеи especially in laborйintensive manufacturing industriesк Kenyaи Egyptи and Mauritius are the most proactive on the continent with respect to such an activityк These zones are positioned on the continent in order to become эfrica’s new economic growth nodesк яhineseйinitiated SEZs in эfrica require large amounts of investment in infrastructureи both within the zones and linking them to ports and regional marketsк If completed as plannedи the infrastructural corridors will яhapter ннц Great Power Politics for эfrica’s Development | ооу provide the essential linkages between fragmented эfrican markets and will have a positive impact upon regional economic integrationк The terms of these zones are being negotiated between юeijing and targeted эfй rican governments that are willing to offer the required policy concessions in order to receive committed яhinese investmentк юeijing has strategically selected some key эfrican economies in which it will apply its SEZ modelк These designated countries reflect яhina’s commercial priorities in эfricaи they are geographically dispersed over the continentи and have had longйterm close political relations with the PRяк For a total of fiveи these zones areц Zambian Mining Hubи Indian Ocean Rim Trading Hubч Tanzanian SEZц э Logistics Hubи Nigeria as a Gateway to West эfricaи Manufacturing Hub in Egyptк F CONCLUSION rom the aboveйsaidи it is clear that the interaction between the EU and яhina with эfrica produced satisfactory results on the continentк For proofи эfrica’s trade with the EU and яhina takes unprecedented proportionsи and increases productivity on the continentк So эfrica can be proud of contributing to the internaй tional trading systemи even if its position in the system is still rather modestк эlthough the investments of different actors in эfrica help the continent to revive its economy after decades of stagnationи the global players’ policy with respect to эfrica’s developй ment still has some gapsк Regarding the EUи despite the эfricans’ enthusiasm with respect to the benefits of the EU–эfrica partnershipи many think this partnership could not reverse the economй ic decline of эfricaк Thusи their argumentation is that the cooperation does nothing more than a financial lifeline to эfricaи or worseи a ‘pension’ or automatic allocations to less credible political regimesи without a clear relation with their performanceк So we can say that the EU–эfrica partnership is far from being an opportunity for эfricaк In additionи the Lomé and яotonou яonventions focused on the free access of some European products to the эfrican market and viceйversaк Unfortunatelyи most of the эfrican countries heavily depend on customs revenueк Thusи the application of this principle had serious implications in many эfrican countries’ budgetsк For exampleи яôte d’Ivoire lowered рм per cent of its tariffs in нхфт and this resulted in very sigй nificant layoffs in the chemical industriesи textilesи footwearи and in automotive asй sembly plantsк In Senegal there was a loss of нлп jobs in manufacturing between нхфс and нххми following a reduction of tariffs from тс per cent to хм per cent during the ооф | Mawunou в Zhao same periodк э report of the Institute of International Economicsно stated that the loss of revenue in нххм–нххс from imported duties could range from нкт million euro in Guinea юissau to псо million euro in Nigeriaч the same report indicated that яape Verde could expect a drop in revenue of up to фм per centк On the other handи sometimes critics are also raised about яhina’s efforts to imй prove socioeconomic conditions in эfricaк It would be valuable if яhina issues some rigorous regulations on how to grant aid and any kind of investment to эfrican counй triesи especially clauses and guarantees from эfrican countries on the management of these fundsи because sometimes such invested funds do not reach their destined goalsк яommunities that are located in regions where яhina undertakes its extractiveи industrialи or commercial pursuits often do not see direct benefits from the яhinese presenceк Finallyи the эfrican countries should know not only what they want and how to obtain it but also how to manage their relationships with these partners in order to maximize profitsк It is true that much remains to be done in эfricaи but it is also good to start with good management and progress towards effective takeoff of the эfrican economyк REFERENCES эldenи яhк оммук яhina in эfricaк Londonц Zed юooksк юroadmanи Hк оммук эfrica’s Silk Roadц яhina and India’s New Economic Frontierк Washingtonи Dяц The World юankк яonseil de l’Union Européenneк омммк эccord interne entre les représentants des gouvernements des États membresи réunis au sein du яonseilи relatif au financement et à la gestion des aides de la яommunauté dans le cadre du protocole financier de l’accord de partenariat entre les États d’эfriqueи des яaraïbes et du Pacifique et la яommunauté européenne et ses États membresи signé à яotonou дюéninе le оп juin оммми et à l’affectation des aides financières destinées aux pays et territoires d’outreйmer auxquels s’appliquent les dispositions de la quatrième partie du traité яEк юruxellesк URLц wwwкmciк djлdocumentлaccord_cotonou_frкpdf Daviesи Pк оммук яhinaц The End of Poverty in эfrica—Towards Mutual юenefitы Swedenц Diakoniaк Delcoustalи Vк оммфк Le Fonds européen de développement—La mise en œuvre оммук юruxellesк URLц httpцллwwwкrpfranceкorgлceлdocлpdfмфлFEDоммумфнохмфкPDF нок Institute is situated in Hamburgи Germanyк яhapter ннц Great Power Politics for эfrica’s Development | оох Faberи Gки and Orbieи Jк оммук The EU’s Insistence on Reciprocal Trade with the эяP Groupк Economic Interests in the Driving Seatы Paper prepared for the EUSэ Tenth юiennial International яonference Montrealи яanadaи ну–нх May оммук URLц httpцллaeiкpittк eduлуххнлнлorbieйjймсgкpdfк Gahamanyiи юк Mки Dansokhoи Mки and Dioufи Mк оммск ExpliqueйMoiи L’эccord de Partenariat эяPйяEк Manuel de facilitation à l’intention des acteurs non étatiques de l’эfrique de l’Ouestк Friedrich Ebert et Endaк Greenidgeи як юк нххук Return to яolonialism—The New Orientation of European Development эssistanceк DSэ European Development Policy Study Groupк Karingiи Sки Langи Rки Oulmaneи Nк оммск Effets des accords de partenariat économique entre l’UE et l’эfrique sur l’économie et le bienйêtreк яэPяи Travail en cours Noк оок эddis эbabaц яentre africain pour les politiques commercialesи яommission économique pour l’эfriqueк Linи Tкйяк нххтк юeijing’s Foreign эid Policy in the нххмsц яontinuity and яhangeк Issues and Studies поднец по–стк Morzellecи Jк оммнк Les Pays эяPк In эmiи юки and яhristianи Pк дdirкеи Dictionnaire juridique de l’Union européenneк URLц httpцллwwwк cremocкorgлarticlesлpaysacpкpdfк Rotbergи Iк Rк оммфк яhina into эfricaц Tradeи эidи and Influenceк Washingtonи Dкякц юrookings Institutionк Steenи Dк Vк Dки and Danauи эк оммтк L’эccord de Partenariat Economique дэPEе entre l’эfrique de l’Ouest et l’Union européenneк Quels enjeux pour les exploitations paysannes et familialesы юruxellesц яollectif Stratégies эlimentairesк Taylorи Iк оммтк яhina and эfricaц Engagement and яompromiseк New Yorkц Routledgeк Westonи Jки яampbellи яки and Koleskiи Kк омннк яhina’s Foreign эssistance in Reviewц Implications for the United Statesк Washingtonи Dкякц UкSк—яhina Economic and Security Review яommissionи Staff Research юackgrounderк опм | Mawunou в Zhao Chapter 12 CONNECTING LOGISTICS NETWORKS GLOBALLY VIA THE UN SINGLE WINDOW CONCEPT Michael Linke The UN Single Window concept is a proven approach to facilitate cross border business including transport, customs and other government-related regulations by enabling seamless trade with a central IT platform, in a hub and spoke like system. Several approaches and implementations already exist, although one needs a proper planning for a further penetration worldwide. Enterprise Architecture Management (EAM) as a specialized IT strategy discipline can help to manage this complex challenge of integrating application landscapes into different existing UN integration frameworks. Keywords: logistics networksи дUNе Single Window conceptи cross border businessи transport regulationsи customs regulationsи government regulationsи seamless tradeи EэM дEnterprise эrchitecture Managementеи Information Technology дITе strategyи UN integration frameworksи international tradeк яhapter ноц яonnecting Logistics Networks Globally Via The UN Single Window яoncept | опп In recent decadesи the world has become increasingly globalizedк яountries today are more connected than ever and rely heavily upon international trade of goods and services in order to function in an appropriate mannerк эdvanced communication netй works seem to play an important role in this acceleration дэrdalanи омнмек The results of international trade seem to be more positive than negative and evidence suggests that it has led to economic prosperity in many countriesи subsequently resulting in an improved quality of life for its citizens which is stated also in recent relevant studй ies in that field дSharmin в Rayhanи омннек Nonetheless other voices point out that potentially backsidesи especially with respect to inequality could still exist дюaumannи омннек The United Statesи яhina and the European Union’s оу member states together account for billions of dollars in trade each yearк эccording to the World Trade Orgaй nizationи the EU exported нкф trillion USD worth of merchandise and imported nearly окм trillion USD in омнмк эs trade between countries becomes a more integral part of the world economyи the need for fast and e cient methods of customs and security processes grows ever more crucialк While no one country operates under the exact same processes or poliй ciesи very few have streamlined practices when it comes to trade and customs regulaй tionsк It should be mentioned that globalization seems to have an additional impactи especially in the sovereignty domain of certain countries or economic unionsи which might have derived from thatи also an impact of customs regulations as such дGrininи омноек In factи in many countriesи businesses who wish to involve themselves in interй national trade are required to submit documentation дmanualи automated or a mixе to several regulatory bodies in order to legally conduct tradeк This range of documentaй tionи paperwork and procedures depends on a number of factors including the type of goods or merchandise involvedи their value and destination countryк The result is what many businesses view as an inhibitive and stifling system that is overly complicated and slows the process of tradeк э recent survey conducted by the World яustoms Organization дWяOе яompenй dium revealed that of ст countries who participated in the surveyи customs proceй dures involved on the average нс separate agenciesи with хт б of reporting countries requiring at least с different regulatory bodiesк From these findingsи it is quite clear how the combination of paperwork and customs regulations can slow or even stifle overall economic prosperity at the macro levelк эt a more individual levelи the regulaй tions and documentation surrounding the import and export of goods can prevent companies from participating in international trade on the wholeк опр | Linke Figure 1 Current trade entities in various trading situations Figure 2 Number of government agencies involved in cross border transactions The UN Single Window concept was introduced in order to reduce the aforemenй tioned issues and ine ciencies involved with the importing and exporting of goodsк юacked by a number of international organizations including the United Nations Ecoй nomic яommission for Europe дUNEяEеи the World яustoms Organization дWяOе and the эssociation of Southeast эsian Nations дэSEэNеи it is defined by the UNEяE asц A facility that allows parties involved in trade and transport to lodge standardized information and documents with a single entry point to fulfill all import, export, and transit-related regulatory requirements. If information is electronic then individual data elements should only be submitted once дGFPи омноч эSEэNи оммуч эPEяи оммуек яhapter ноц яonnecting Logistics Networks Globally Via The UN Single Window яoncept | опс эs an organization dedicated to the facilitation of both trade and electronic busiй nessи the UNEяE яentre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic юusiness дUNEяEи омное has been instrumental in researching the Single Window concept in depth as well as creating a set of recommendations for future implementation based on their findй ings дяentre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic юusinessи оммсек Through a careful reй search and examination of existing implementationsи the benefits of adopting a single window are clearк юoth the public and private sectors have much to gain by this methй odized streamlining of customs and trade regulationsк Governments stand to benefit from implementing a single window at a number of different levelsк эny changes put in place would be in an effort to streamline and regulate processes across a number of agencies simultaneouslyк This consolidation and standardization can lead to reduced overheads and a reduction in process errors resulting in reduced riskк In additionи having all customs and trade information flowing through a single window will allow governments to monitor more easily what is comй ing in and out of the countryк This is important not only for economic and statistics agencies who report on such mattersи but also to the nation’s securityк Security agenй cies will be able to access all pertinent information about goods entering the country through the single window instead of being forced to collect information from a numй ber of different departmentsи allowing security to move more swiftly and effectivelyк Overallи the effect of a single window on a government is far reachingк яustoms agenciesи permit departments and trade monitoring agencies can work together unй der a standardized umbrella and works towards making customs procedures fasterи safer and more e cientк These changes will propagate through the economy and alй low business to engage in international trade more easilyк эs to the governmentи the private sector would benefit enormously from the use of a single windowк Many scholars predict that it will eliminate or reduce the existing nonйtariff related barriers to trade дDobsonи омнмеи thus lowering the costs of internaй tional tradeк In additionи due to the standardization of required documentation as a part of the single windowи businesses would no longer be required to expend as much energy and resources submitting and keeping up to date with paperwork from more than one agencyк This process would be made much more e cient and all required documentation would go to one sourceи or windowк The positive effects of a single window propagate even further to shipping and delivery companiesи the banking and accounting industriesи and eventually to consumersк опт | Linke Figure 3 Single window meta concept T TECHNICAL DIMENSIONS OF A SINGLE WINDOW here does not exist single stringent set of specifications which outline the defiй nition and a scope of a Single Windowк Every country has developed its own processes regarding customs and trade and consequentlyи will require different solutions in order to achieve a single windowк The UNляEFэяT has created a number of guidelines for single window created with a view to ‘enhance the e cient exchange of information between trade and government’ дяentre for Trade Facilitation and Elecй tronic юusinessи оммсек In these guidelines there are suggested three models for a sinй gle window—Single эuthorityи Single эutomated System and эutomated Information Transaction Systemк Single Authority In the Single эuthority modelи there is one body or agency that acts as a singular retainer for electronic or paper documentation related to a defined unique business function or serviceк Upon receiving documentationи this single retainer acts as an auй thority and either manually or automatically files necessary paperwork and dissemiй nates the required documentation to the respective agencies or authoritiesк эs a part of its functionalityи this singular authority should only disperse documentation once overviewed and formatted to the recipient’s specificationsк See Figure р for an illusй trated diagram of the Single эuthority modelк яhapter ноц яonnecting Logistics Networks Globally Via The UN Single Window яoncept | опу Single Automated System The Single эutomated System can take three forms—an Integrated System дillustrated belowеи an Interfaced System and a combination of integrated and interfaced systemsк In all three formsи businesses submit all electronic information related to trade with other countries to a singular source which is either a public or private entityи or winй dowк Hereи the electronic information will be collectedи integrated and storedк In the case of an integrated systemи this central window not only receives informationи but processes it as wellк On the other handи an interfaced system will send the formatted data to all the relevant agencies rather than process it itselfк Howeverи it is important to keep in mind that regardless of the type of Single эutomated systemи a user experiй ence from the business or trader perspective does not change as in any scenario all necessary documentation is submitted electronically to one authorityк Automated Information Transaction System The эutomated Information Transaction System is the most complex single winй dow modelи but it also the most advantageous for businessesк In this modelи entiй ties involved in international trade are only required to submit electronic information through a singular applicationк This application contains in its application backend the Figure 4 Single Authority conception опф | Linke Figure 5 Single Automated System conception integration with all concerning agencies and regulatory authoritiesк In many casesи custom feesи tariffs and taxes can also be calculated and integrated within this apй plication allowing businesses not only to submit their informationи but also make the necessary payments for their tradesк эccording to a survey conducted by the WяO яompendiumи in омнн only пп per cent of participating customs administrations operated on a single window modelи while the rest were still in the process of developing oneк э breakdown of the survey results is as follows дяhoiи омннец • р б operate Single Window—Integrated Modelч • у б operate Single Window—Interfaced Modelч • оо б operate Single Window—Hybrid Modelч • нп б operate Oneйstop Serviceч • рр б operate Standйalone systemч • х б operate other systemsк яhapter ноц яonnecting Logistics Networks Globally Via The UN Single Window яoncept | опх Figure 6 Conception Automated Information Transaction System S SINGLE WINDOW CASE STUDIES everal organizations began making strides towards achieving the Single Window concept in the нххмsи while many more started work in the last decadeк Every country faced unique situations and goals which in turn led to various impleй mentations of methodsк It was clear through each case studyи howeverи that there were certain common steps that each organization took in order to achieve their goalsк The first was clearly a preparationк Due to the scale of a single window project encompassing departments that involve customsи imports and exportsи an enormous preparation process was required in order to achieve a proper foundation upon which to build a single windowк The UNEяE emphasizes the importance of choosing a suitй able agency to lead all others in the single window effortк While this agency can be public or privateи it is important to ensure that is has enough legal power and governй ment funding to act as an effective leaderк эfter a leading agency is chosenи it becomes crucial to set the requirementsк It is important to identify early which processesи organization units and crossйorganizaй tional counterparts in related agencies should be integrated into the system’s initial орм | Linke releaseк Each of these bodies should define its own requirements and only after this phase is completed there should begin the feasibility assessment and initial design workк Variations in Single Window Implementation The UNEяE has revealed through study and survey of the countries that have or are in the process of introducing a single windowи that there is a wide range of options in reference to the methods in which these systems are set upк For instanceи while naй tions such as Finland and the United States fund the development of a single window through their governmentи other single window systemsи including the one in Gerй manyи are paid by the private sector дюutterlyи nкdкек The country of Mauritiusи which will be further discussedи received funding from both the public and private sectorsк яountries also vary in the way in which the single window is usedк It is mandaй tory in some countries дFinlandи Senegalи Mauritiusеи while intended to be voluntary in others дGermanyи Swedenек эdditionallyи Germanyи Senegalи Malaysia and a few other nations charge for use of their single window systemк Each nation inevitably runs into challenges when implementing new systemsи though these can vary as wellк The counй tries such as the United States that have a complex and longйexisting infrastructure to handle the tradeи find it di cult to make the transition from older legal systems to a single windowк Other nations find it di cult to get support from all participatй ing agenciesи while others run into problems finding initial funding and development power for the project дюutterlyи nкdкек The UNEяE emphasizes the importanceи but not the necessity of technology in single window developmentк Though it is really adй vantageous to incorporate computerized and automated processes within the single windowи the overall methodology can be executed manually in cases where funds for technology cannot be secured дяentre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic юusinessи оммсек Mauritius Mauritiusи despite having an economy ranked нофth in the world дяIэ омннеи was one of the first countries to have an information transaction systemи proving that existй ing economic wealth is not a prerequisite to implementing a Single Window systemк Through a corporation called Mauritius Network Services Ltdки consisting of public and private sector representatives combined with outsourced technical assistanceи the TradeNet application was developedк яhapter ноц яonnecting Logistics Networks Globally Via The UN Single Window яoncept | орн TradeNet is a completely proprietary electronic data interchange дEDIе applicaй tion designed to receive information from IT applications including content related to customsи importsи exportsи duties and tariffsк Since the launch of the program in нххри businesses are able to submit all their information electronically through TradeNet as well as to make bank payments in the system in order to pay for any necessary dutiesи taxes or tariffsк эccording to UNляEFэяTи ‘it is estimated that TradeNet has decreased the average clearance time of goods from about р hours to around нс minutes for nonйlitigious declarationsи with estimated savings of around н б of GDP’ дяentre for Trade Facilitaй tion and Electronic юusinessи оммсек Thusи it is no surprise thenи that Mauritius is buckй ing the trend in эfrica and has been on the receiving end of consistent economic growth over the last нс yearsк Global investment and exports seem to have increased and the countries could experience therefore a possible healthier distribution of wealthк The success of the single window in Mauritius has attracted attention of other эfrican countries such as Uganda and Rwandaи both of which are in the development stages of a Single Window system дHitimanaи омноч TradeMark East эfricaи омноек Sweden эs a part of an ongoing initiative to provide more government transparency to its citizensи Sweden created a single window system known as the Virtual яustoms O ce дVяOеи which is aimed at electronic processing of customs declaration as well as imй port and export licensesк The single window incorporates a large number of national organizations including the Swedish яustoms эuthorityи Swedish юoard of эgricultureи National юoard of Tradeи The National Inspectorate of Strategic Productsи Swedish Poй lice and The National Tax эdministration and Statistics of Sweden дяentre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic юusinessи оммсек The VяO aims at providing a userйfriendly service to traders in an attempt to make the filling customs declarations and importлexport licenses as simple as possibleк Inй tegrated into the virtual o ce are realйtime updates of taxesи tariff codes and dutiesи which traders can receive either via email or SMSк Fully financed by the Swedish govй ernmentи a survey of VяO users revealed that фм б of traders saved timeи ср б saved money as a direct result of using the systemи уо б believed it provided increased flexй ibilityи and тс б thought the quality and speed of served had improved дIbidкек оро | Linke The Netherlands эir cargo handled through Schiphol эirport in the Netherlands is processed through a single window system headed by the customs departmentк яalled VIPPROGи the Nethй erlands’ single window is integrated with a private documentation system called яarй gonautи which handles cargo manifest paperworkк The government pays яargonaut in order to maintain and have access to relevant records дяentre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic юusinessи оммсек In this situationи the customs department acts as the leading agency in the single window initiative and they process all paperwork in the form of a single automated дintegratedе systemк Here all cargo is given a risk assessment and depending on the resultsи any risk factors are sent to one or more of the corresponding agenciesк The system is designed to integrate with the customs department and ten other agenй cies including immigrationи and various health and agriculture o ces дIbidкек If any of these agencies wish to further inspect the cargoи the customs department arranges an inspection appointmentи where any and all interested agencies can examine the cargo during a certain scheduled timeк This ensures that all goods can be checked at onceи accelerating the time in which cargo is generally processed through the airport while at the same time mitigating risksк The United States of America In the United States of эmericaи there is a large concerted effort to implement and utilize a single window integrated with many of the country’s government agencies in order to improve the trade processк The United States is one of the largest importй ers in the world and exports quite a bit as well with a combined total of three trillion USD worth of merchandise coming in and out of the country in омнн дGFPи омноек эs a resultи the country has set up a group known as the International Trade Data System дITDSеи aimed at establishing a ‘single window through which the data required by government agencies for international trade transactions may be submitted’ дITDSи омноек юy implementing a secure governmentйwide system to collectи storeи integrate and disseminate information related to tradeи the ITDS hopes to reduce public and private sector overheadи comply more easily with a number of government requireй mentsи and improve national security allowing multiple agencies to have access to pertinent information дIbidкек In the United States there seem to be more than a hundred agencies who require access to trade documentation дIbidкек The ITDS has the monumental task of setting яhapter ноц яonnecting Logistics Networks Globally Via The UN Single Window яoncept | орп up a system whereby members of the trade and transportation communities are reй quired to submit relevant documentation through a secure EDI only onceи leaving the single window to take care of the restк Much like VIPPROG in Schiphol эirportи the goal is to have the single window perform a security and risk assessmentи then forй ward on the findings to any government agencies who are qualified to further assess compliance or security riskк Still in the process of developmentи it is hoped that the country will benefit from this new system in a number of waysк Though providing e cient means of transportй ing goods across the country’s boundaries will no doubt reduce overheads for both the government and private businessesи one of the most important goals is to increase government compliance and securityк Storing and handling all data under a central hub or single window will facilitate the sharing of information between government agenciesи allowing them to collaborate on security and compliance effortsк ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE MANAGEMENT (EAM) AS AN IT DISCIPLINE T he more or less new discipline of Enterprise эrchitecture Management дEэMе as partially a discipline of the organization studies and IT can be described on the basis of two partial entitiesи which are already indicated by the combination of wordsк Conceptual and historical dimension of the term EAM эn enterprise is an activity that contains a wellйdefined targetк яurrentlyи this can mean a large number of organizations and subйorganizationsи which pursue a comй mon target or produce a common resultк эn enterprise can thus mean anything— from a big group to a state or public institution—in practiceи also summarized into holdingsи trustsи and other divisionally separated legal formsк Thusи they also have sevй eral Enterprise эrchitecturesк эn enterprise in this context can also be an Extended Enterpriseи which includes all the partnersи suppliersи and clients of the actual busiй ness in its valueйadded or administration chain into its own ITйbased value addedк The business architecture within the framework of Information Technology дITе describes the interaction of the elements of information technology and the business activities within the businessк It distinguishes above all due to the subйelementsи for exampleи the information architecture or the software architecture with a global view on the role of information technology within an organizationк The o cial definition of the term architecture according to the эNSIлIEEE standard нрун–оммм in the IT environment isц орр | Linke An architecture is the fundamental organization of a system, embodied in its components, their relationships to each other and the environment, and the principles governing its design and evolution. The definition usedи howeverи is narrowerц an architecture is a formal description of a systemи a detailed plan of the system and its componentsи the structure of the componentsи their mutual effectsи their principles and guidelinesи which control their draftи their developmentи and their implementationк In larger groupsи several different Enterprise эrchitectures can exist at the same timeк Howeverи in all casesи an Enterprise эrchitecture includes several technical systemsк The enlarged concept of Enterprise эrchitecture dates from the нхфмsк One of the leaders of the architecture movementи John Zachmanи saw the value of the use of an abstract architecture for the integraй tion of systems and their componentsк Zachman developed the analogies in the field of traditional construction architecture and later used concepts from the airplane inй dustry in order to cover the business process aspects in his frameworkк Since thenи a number of frameworks have been publishedи which all aim at describing a business in a structural way дZachmannи оммфек Architecture frameworks as an auxiliary эn эrchitecture Framework divides a complex task of the IT architecture manageй ment into several partial layersи which can be described separately to partially reduce complexityк Each partial layer дLayersе should be specified in the Meta model of the Frameworkк эn approach is the ISO standard нсумри which defines general demands towards the company architectureк In this standardи the architecture is considered as a description of the fundamental structure of the system parts and the links between the individual subsystemsк THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SINGLE WINDOW CONCEPT AND ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE T he goal of a single window system for trade is to consolidate existing processes and simplify existing proceduresк When incorporating technologyи this concept aligns itself well to enterprise architectureи which is defined as ‘the process of translating business vision and strategy into effective enterprise change by creatingи communicating and improving the key requirementsи principles and models that deй scribe the enterprise’s future state and enable its evolution’ дGartnerи омноек яhapter ноц яonnecting Logistics Networks Globally Via The UN Single Window яoncept | орс SWIF and TOGAF ADM In factи the UNEяE has created a framework meant to assist in the creation of a single window called the Single Window Implementation Framework дSWIFек It is based very heavily upon an existing standardized enterprise architecture framework known as The Open Group эrchitecture Framework дTOGэFе and its эrchitecture Development Method дэDMеи which has evolved from initial work performed by the US Departй ment of Defenseк The figure above дZachmannи оммфе illustrates the core entities of the TOGэF modelк Overview of SWIF Methodology SWIF is divided into a preliminary stage and additional eight phasesи each consisting of a defined set of objectivesи activities and outputsлresultsк Designed to be a dynamic and iterative processи these phases together are intended to outline the general steps necessary to establishing and maintaining an Eэйbased Single Window Systemк Figure 7 TOGAF model орт | Linke Phase A: Architecture Vision This is the highestйlevel phaseи where the project can identified through broad defй initionsк The keys in this phase are to identify stakeholdersк эs the Single Window concept pertains to customs and tradeи there are four categories of stakeholders— эuthorityи Supplierи яustomerи and Intermediaryк These refer to relevant government agenciesи exportersи importersи and auxiliary parties such as financial and shipping institutions respectively дvan Stijn et alки омннек Once all the stakeholders are identifiedи the goals of this phase are to create a very broad overview of the requirements of the stakeholdersи and establish key perй formance indicators for the projectк Phase B: Business Architecture Much of the work that goes into streamlining processes occurs in Phase юк In this phaseи existing business processes are examined and weaknesses identifiedк Functions which can be automated or consolidated should also be identifiedк Phase C: Information Systems Architecture This is the first phase which heavily involves ITк One of its main goals is to harmonize dataи which will be a key component to facilitate future modifications and scalabilityк Standardized data allows for increased interoperability between business processesи allowing for more transparency and ease of useк э data model should be designed in this phaseи incorporating all consolidated and streamlined business processes дPhase юеи along with any data which will be utilizedк Phases D–H Phase D deals with obtainingи designing andлor modifying any hardware or software required to implement the new business processesк In the next phaseи a plan should be put in place for ‘implementingи deploying and operating the Single Window’ дvan Stijn et al.и омннек Phase F involves the final preparations required to ensure that all the subйsystems in place fulfill the requirements of the original highйlevel planк The last two phases entail the implementation of a monitoring system and identifying ways to improve the systemк Throughout each of the phasesи the management of requirements should be alй ways kept in mindк It is important to ensure that all the work going towards the impleй mentation of the enterprise structure does not ever stray from the business requireй ment established during the preliminary phase and Phase эк яhapter ноц яonnecting Logistics Networks Globally Via The UN Single Window яoncept | ору The trade industry is very dynamic and experiences constant changes in regulaй tionsи duties and tariffs as a result of a various factorsк Thereforeи a single window system must be designed to be alterableи dynamic and growth scalableк The TOGэF эDM and SWIF account for the dynamic nature business in the design of their methй odologyк The previously described phases are intended to work in a cyclical format on several different levelsк The framework is flexible enough to support the cycling of a single phaseи between phases and around the entire эDM itselfи allowing for changesи new initiatives and sub projects to be implemented during the life of the single winй dowк This dynamic capability combined with the properties of enterprise architecture will ensure fewer faults associated with updates to regulations or tariffsи resulting in a more secure trade industry and lower overheadsк Integrating Security into a Single Window System Security is an important factor in international trade and any new system put in place to facilitate the processing of goods across national boundaries should not comproй mise a country’s securityк Due to the structure of SWIFи in which harmonized data and business processes allow for an easier propagation of necessary modifications and alterations throughout the systemи adding security features to a single window more easily executedк Single windows designed through the SWIF benefit from having dataи business processes and documentation in a standardized formatк This clearи hierarchical strucй ture reduces the possibilities of data security issues that can arise from having a group of separate legacy systemsк Furthermoreи the adoption of security standards such as ISO офммм and юS уухх дas recommended by UNEяEе are made easier due to the simй plified architecture created through SWIFк On the userйendи countries which already employ a Single Window system use a number of techniques to secure their applicationдsек эmongst the most common security implementations are a PINлPassword systemи Public Key Infrastructure дPKIеи эuthentication Tokensи юiometrics and Smartcards дяhoiи омннек эdditionallyи in most countries they protect raw data through an additional level of security incorporated during the implementation of the architectureк эs a resultи other government agenй cies are not able to access any raw dataк Insteadи they rely upon the single window to provide them with the processed informationи thus reducing the exposure of raw informationк орф | Linke Of courseи these security features are all additional to the more secure borders created by the single window itselfк The window is responsible for receiving all the data and information associated with customs and tradesи which should provide it will all the tools necessary to assess risk дITDSи яentre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic юusinessек This is in stark opposition to many existing border control methods when several departments are responsible for different pieces of informationи making risk assessments more di cultк T CONCLUSION he Single Window concept as proposed by the UNEяE is beneficial to the world economy and security in a number of waysк Its structureи mainly drawn from an existing approach to enterprise architectureи is aimed at simplifying cusй toms procedures while at the same time improving security techniquesк No doubtи a streamlined method of international trade requires less time to bring imported goods to the marketи which will be very much appreciated by businessк яase studies performed on the countries already benefiting from a single window system have received overwhelmingly positive reviews from the private sectorк The single windows not only decrease the amount of time needed to clear goodsи but also saves business money by reducing overheadsк From a public sector perspectiveи the ability to update duties and tariffs through a single window has been shown in countries such as Mauritius to increase revenue from foreign tradeк Governments are also on the receiving end of steep overhead reductionsи which is typical for organizaй tions converting from legacy to enterprise architecture systemsк яitizensи tooи have much to gain from the single window as the ripple effects of this implementation are widespreadк Mauritius is a prime example of a country which has transformed itself from a localized agricultural economy into a significant member of the world trading communityк The UN Single Window concept could therefore be a next logical step in trade globalizationк It will help facilitate international tradeи enable governments to give businesses an opportunity to reduce their overheads and simplify international shipй ments while at the same time keeping borders secure and documentation updated and in checkк яhapter ноц яonnecting Logistics Networks Globally Via The UN Single Window яoncept | орх Figure 8 UN Single Window Implementation Roadmap REFERENCES эrdalanи Kк омнмк Globalization and Financeц Four Paradigmatic Viewsк Journal of Globalization Studies ндоец рн–тук эPEя—эsiaйPacific Economic яooperation оммук Single Window Strategic Planк URLц httpцлл wwwкapecкorgлэboutйUsлэboutйэPEял~лmediaлDEхноюмрюмэярфсэфмпфопяпоEюфусмяк ashxк эSEэN—эssociation of Southeast эsian Nations омннк Trade and Facilitationк URLц httpцлл wwwкaseansecкorgлFactбомSheetлэEял эEяймнкpdfк юaumanи Zк омннк From эgora to the Marketplaceи and Whereto from Hereы Journal of Globalization Studies однец п–нрк юutterlyи Tк nкdк Single Window Implementation Frameworkк URLц httpцллcssкescwaкorgкlbл edgdлнрутлdоsрйпкpdf яentre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic юusiness оммск Recommendation and Guidelines on Establishing a Single Window to Enhance the E cient Exchange of Information between Trade and эgreementк New Yorkц United Nations яentre for Trade Facilitation and Electronic юusinessк URLц httpцллwwwкuneceкorgл fileadminлDэMлcefactл recommendationsл recпплrecпп_trdпсоeкpdfк яhoiи Jae Young омннк э Survey of Single Window Implementationк URLц httpцллwwwкwcoomdк orgлfilesлнкбомPublicбомfilesлPDFandDocumentsлresearchлну_SW_Surveyбомэnalysis_ яhoi_ENкpdf осм | Linke Dobsonи Wк омнмк Gravity Shiftц How эsia’s New Economic Powerhouses will Shape the онst яenturyк Torontoц University of Toronto Pressк URLц httpцллwwwкlobкdeлcgiйbinлworkл such eоыtitnrщосхртрртпвflagщcitaviк Gartner омнок IT Glossaryц Enterprise эrchitecture дEэек URLц httpцллwwwкgartnerкcomлitй glossaryлenterpriseйarchitectureйeaлк GFP—Global Facilitation Partnership for Transportation and Trade омнок Single Window Environmentк URLц httpцллwwwкgfpttкorgлentitiesлTopicProfileк aspxыnameщsingleйwindowк Hitimanaи юк омнок Ugandaц яlearing Goodsк URLц httpцллallafricaкcomлstoriesломномпоуннфнк htmlк Grininи Lк омнок New Foundations of International System or Why do States Lose Their Sovereignty in the эge of Globalizationы Journal of Globalization Studies пднец п–пфк ITDS—International Trade Data System омнок What is ITDSы URLц httpцллwwwкitdsкgovлxpлitdsл toolboxлbackgroundлbackgroundкxmlк Sharminи Sки and Rayhanи Md Iк омннк Does Globalization эlways Increase Inequalityы эn Econometric эnalysis in юangladesh Perspectiveк Journal of Globalization Studies одоец нтм–нуок UNEяE—United Nations Economic яommission for Europe омнок UNляEFэяTц эbout Usк URLц httpцллwwwкuneceкorgлcefactл aboutкhtmlк TradeMark East эfrica омнок Electronic Single Window Pilot Launchк URLц httpцллwwwк trademarkeaкcomл siteлымммщнвммнщопвммпщnewsвммрщуунк van Stijnи Eки Phuaphanthongи Tки Kerothoи Sки Pikartи Mки Hofmanи Wки and Tanи Yк омннк Single Window Implementation Frameworkц Dскмцрbк URLц httpцллwwwкuneceк orgлfileadminлDэMлcefactл SingleWindowImplementationFrameworkкpdfк Zachmanи Jк оммфк John Zachman’s яoncise Definition of the Zachman Frameworkк URLц httpцллwwwкzachmanкcomлaboutйtheйzachmanйframeworkк яhapter ноц яonnecting Logistics Networks Globally Via The UN Single Window яoncept | осн Chapter 13 THE RECENT GLOBAL CRISIS UNDER THE LIGHT OF THE LONG WAVE THEORY Tessaleno C. Devezas In this paper it is presented the secular unfolding of four economics-related agents, which when considered as a whole allow comprehending what happened in the past in the global economy and shed some light about possible future trajectories. The four agents considered are: world population, its global output (GDP), gold price and the Dow Jones index. The joint action of these actors, in despite of being only a part of the whole, might be seen as a good depiction of the great piece representing the world economic realm. The application of analytical tools such as spectral analysis, moving averages, and logistic curves on time series data about the historical unfolding of these actors allows the demonstration that the recent global crisis seems to be a mix of a self-correction mechanism that brought the global output back to its original learning natural growth pattern, and that it carries also signals of an imminent transition to a new world economic order. Moreover, it is pointed out that fingerprints of Kondratieff long waves are ubiquitous in all observed time-series used in this research and it is demonstrated that the present decade will be probably one of worldwide economic expansion, corresponding to the second half of the expansion phase of the fifth K-wave. Keywords: economicsи long wavesи world GDPи economic recessionsи gold priceи Dow Jones Industrial эverageк яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | осп S 1. INTRODUCTION ince the onset of the present global financial crisis started in the fourth quarter of омму that at least two ‘faqs’ are omnipresent in the technical or amateur disй cussions on the unfolding of world economic affairsц Why was not it foreseenы эnd where are we presently in the framework of the long wave theoryы It became very complex to speak about causation of this crisisч there is no conй sensus about an economic theory that could explain its genesisи and much less about the hypothesis of a timely forecastingк On the other sideи there has been some conй sensus that the crisis has a pure financial and monetary policy nature and is not the consequence of any kind of overproduction as observed in previous economic shocksк Some strange names have been given to this financial turbulenceц subprime crisisи real state crisisи super bubbleи and more recently it was even coined as the Great Recession to differentiate from less severe ‘normal’ recessions of the last фм years and from the Great Depression of the нхпмsк эs usual in times of big economic recession comparisons with previous crises abounded in the technical literatureк Most commonly we have seen the obvious comй parisons with the Great Depression of the нхпмsи but also comparisons with the worldй wide panics of нфуп and of нхму have been pointed outк юut the fact is that none of these comparisons passed the necessary stringent testsк Its general characterи as we will try to demonstrate in this workи seems to be uniqueи carrying in its structure clear symptoms either of a selfйcorrecting mechanism or even an anomaly of the current socioeconomic systemк Strange still economists and financial analysts insist on looking at this crisis with the very narrow lenses of the current economic and financial theories and modelsи neglecting the potential of the overwhelming evolutionary world system approach when trying to understand the unfolding of human affairs on this planetк Economics has taken a far too narrow view not only of its modeling and assumptionsи but on its reliance on definitionsк Models and definitions are maintained even when they are obsolete and no more suitableк This piece does not intend to offer an exhaustive analysis of the causes of the present crisisк Our goal relies mainly in presenting a new vision about the evolution of some economicsйrelated agents during the last century дmore exactly since нфумеи which when considered as a whole allow a better comprehension on what is happenй ing and shed some light about possible future trajectoriesк оср | Devezas E 2. THE FOUR AGENTS conomics is above all the surface manifestation of all human activities related to the exchange of goods and services that as any other system in the universe has to follow some iron rules of natureк Humansи human activitiesи organizaй tionsи Earth’s material resourcesи are all parts of the natural orderк Following this line of thought we have to describe the behavior of large populationsи for which statistiй cal regularities should emergeи just as the law of ideal gases emerge from the inй credibly chaotic motion of individual moleculesи as recently stated by юouchaud in a short paper published in Nature with the suggestive title ‘Economics Needs a Scienй tific Revolution’ дюouchaudи оммфек The present author in a paper written in нххт has already pointed out the same observation дDevezasи нххуек The fact is that during the last twenty years we have witnessed the birth of the new science of Econophysics дa term coined by Gene Stanley in нххс [юouchaudи оммх]е which applies the conceptual framework of physics to economics and has been very successful in explaining the endogenous behavior of financial marketsи demoting accepted axioms and debunking myths of mainstream economics like the rationality of agentsи the invisible handи marй ket e ciencyи etcк We will turn to this point in a later section of this articleк Socioeconomic systems are complex systems and free markets are wild marketsк No framework in classical economics is able to describe wild marketsк Physics’ modern branch of яhaos Theoryи on the other handи has developed models that allow unй derstanding how small perturbations can lead to wild дvery bigе effectsк Devezas and Modelski доммпе have shown that the world system evolution consists in a cascade of multilevelи nestedи and selfйsimilar дfractalе processesи exhibiting power law behaviorи which is also known in physics as selfйorganized criticalityк Wild oscillations are part of the far from equilibrium chaotic behaviorк In a more recent complement of this research Devezas доммхе has demonstrated that the world system is prompt to a very important transition in the near futureк The results described in the present paperи usй ing other sets of data and different mathematical toolsи come to reinforce this resultк It is very important to keep in mind that complex systems is perhaps a misnomerи because their manifestation and their subjacent laws are not really complex—their imperatives are very simple and usually translated in beautiful patterns like that of fractalsи power laws and logistic growth curvesк эll that we need is to choose the suitй able sets of data and apply to them simple mathematical toolsк яonsider that Einstein demonstrated the time dilation phenomenon using only highйschool mathematicsк Let us be simple and call to the stage only four actors дagentsе thatи in despite of being only a part of the wholeи might be seen as a good depiction of the great piece яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | осс representing the world economic realmк Their historical unfolding translated by time series data represents the result of collective actions involving peopleи organizationsи networksи nationsи etcки whose interactions unfold in space and time and manifest some simple patterns that ease us to grasp recent and past economic eventsк The considered agents areц the world populationи the world aggregate output known as Gross Domestic Product дGDPеи the historical leader of all commodities— Goldи and the still most important financial indexи the DJIэ дDow Jones Industrial эverй ageек In this paper we will examine the interplay among these agents using historical time series regarding their quantitative evolutionи as well as the patterns emerging from their secular behavior when subjected to some simple analytical toolsк T 3. NOTES ON THE USED SETS OF DATA he figures for world population and GDP were taken from Maddison’s historical series дMaddisonи оммуbи nкdкеи which are considered to be one of the most reliй able sources for economical and population data for the past оммм yearsк The macroeconomic variable—GDP—is undoubtedly a very good measure of global and regionйwide economic activityи for it works as an aggregator covering the whole economyк In the technical literature there has been a hectic discussion about the validity of GDP statistics as a good measure for living standards and nation’s proй ductivity дsee for instance the recent short comment on this theme by the Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz [оммх]ек юut regarding this controversial point we wish to clarify that the approach followed in the present analysis is one of comparisons between countries andлor regionsи and moreover we compare the historical rates of growthи and not the absolute values of GDP estimatesк эdd to that the fact that Maddison uses in his figures the purchasing power parity дPPPе convertersи which eliminates the interйcountry differences in price levelsи so that differences in the volume of economic activity can be compared across countriesи alй lowing a coherent set of spaceйtime comparisonsк In order to normalize the temporal variations of the used currency Maddison takes constant нххм US dollars converted at international ‘GearyйKhamis’ purchasing power parities дsee for details Maddison оммуbц chк тек Still regarding the GDP data series it is important to point out that Maddison’s figures are not complete along with the entire time span дsince нфуме we want to focus in the present analysisк Maddison’s tables present complete data between нфум and ост | Devezas оммт only for the USэи но Western European countriesи Japanи юrazil and Indonesiaк For India the numbers are complete since нффри for RussiaлUSSR there are numbers for нфуми нфхми нхмми нхнпи and is complete after нхофи and finally for яhina there are numbers for нфуми нфхми нхмми нхох–нхпфи and is complete since нхсмк For all other countries the figures are complete since нхсмк For this reason when designing the graphs for the historical unfolding of the world GDP only a given set of countries was chosen for some given periodsи as will be discussed laterк Data for the most recent years of омму and оммфи as well as the projections for оммх and омнми were taken from a recent report of the International Monetary Fund дIMFи оммхеи converted using Madй dison’s criteriaк The time series for the weekly Gold price since нхмм were taken from Kitco historiй cal charts дKitcoи nкdке and for the Dow Jones index also since нхмм from the webpage of эnalize Indices дэnalize Indices…и nкdкек G 4. SPIKE-LIKE GROWTHS raphed on a timeйline of two millennia both the Earth population as well as its economic output дworld GDPе presents a spikeйlike growthи as depicted in Figй ures н and ок юoth these megaйphenomena began sweeping the planet in the past century conducing nowadays to very serious concerns about materialsлenergy consumptionи carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphereи shortage of waterи and extinction of speciesк These megaйphenomena account for the proliferation of a icй tions swamping mankind at this very onset of the онst centuryк It is not exaggerated to Figure 1 Spike-like growth of the world population in the last two millennia яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | осу Figure 2 Spike-like growth of the GDP in the last two millennia say that humanity is presently in a very World War дor World Revolutionе whose main goal is its own survivingи spending large amounts of its own GDP trying to win this warк There is already a growing planetary consciousness that some extreme measures have to be undertaken immediately if the human race intends to endure as a speciesк On the other handи one can askц Is that really soы Is there a real menace pointing to a possible worldwide catastrophe that could definitively jeopardize human life on Earthы эnother question then naturally emergesц could not Gaia as a resilient system find its own way out of this apparently imminent disasterы эs will be seen in our analyй sis ahead in this paperи this kind of graphs evincing explosive growths is always misй leading and used frequently for apocalyptic propagandaк In order to get the correct conclusions about the real trends we should look for the details hidden behind the considered growth phenomenon and this is usually done expanding the xйaxis and narrowing the focus on its unfolding in shorter time spansк We know that this is a very controversial theme of debates and equally know that there are many scientists voicing against the exaggeration of simple extrapolations of the observed trendsк Our objective in this work is not properly to deliver answers about this scientific puzzleи but the fact is that the approach we are pursuing in last years and the results of our ongoing researchи as well as the results of other recent inй vestigationsи point to this very concrete possibility—the World System is approaching an Era of Transition that will conduce naturally to a new order within which these trouй bles will be overcomeк What we do not know yet is if this transition will be a smooth осф | Devezas one or much on the contraryи a very turbulent one as already happened in the pastк We hope that the present results may help in shedding some light on the road aheadк We have already pointed out that Devezas and Modelski доммпе have demonstratй ed that the World System is prompt to a very important transition and demonstrated that the dominating order has already reached фмб of its millennial learning path дsee Devezas в Modelskiи оммпц Figure хек In another recent work Devezas et al. доммфе have shown that the increasing e ciency of energy systems is following an irreversible path toward the usage of carbon free energy sourcesи a process that will be completed beй fore the end of the present century дsee Devezas et alки оммфц figures нм and ннек Very recently econophysicists Johansen and Dornette доммне have given an imporй tant contribution in this directionк They have shown thatи contrary to common beliefи both the Earth’s human population and its economic output have grown faster than exponential дiкeк in a superйMalthusian modeек These growth rates are compatible with a spontaneous singularity occurring at the same critical time around омсм signaling an abrupt transition to a new regimeк юut the abruptness of this transition might be smoothedи a fact that can be inferred from the fact that the maximum of population growth was already reached in the нхтмsи in other wordsи a roundingйoff of the finiteй time singularity probably due to a combination of wellйknown finiteйsize effects and frictionи suggesting that we have already entered the transition region into a new reй gimeк яlosing this section it is shown in Figure п the spikeйlike growth of the Dow Jones Industrial эverage дDJIэе considered weekly from нхмм until September оммхи and in Figure р the historical growth of gold price for the same time spanи also considered weeklyк In the case of goldи which will be subject of a detailed analysis ahead in this paperи we do not have what can be coined as a spikeйlike growthи but anyway it can be observed a spectacular growth with wild oscillationsи exhibiting two very strong peaks separated by approximately пм yearsк яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | осх Figure 3 Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly price since 1900 until September 2009. Figure 4 Gold weekly price per troy ounce since 1900 until September 2009. L 5. SIGNALS OF SATURATION et us begin looking at the evolution of the two most important agentsи Earth’s population and its aggregate outputи but initially narrowing our observation to their recent unfolding after нхсми a period for which the most reliable data are availableк In the previous section we have already pointed out the fact that human populaй tion growth rate has already reached its maximumи as depicted in Figure ск э peak отм | Devezas of окоб was reached in нхто–нхтпи and after this date has decreased steadily beй ing nowadays of the order of about нкнпбк Looking another way aroundи the annual change in the world population peaked in the late нхфмs when the world population experienced a net addition of about ффИнмт individuals дobviously because the popuй lation in the нхфмs was much bigger than in the нхтмsек These figures were taken from the International Data юase of the UкSк юureau of яensus дnкdкеи whose estimate for the world population in омсм is of about хкпнтИнмх peopleк эn important point to refer about the Figure с is the pronounced dip appearing in нхсф–нхтм that was due to the soйcalled Great Leap Forward that occurred in яhina in this periodи amidst with natural disastersи widespread famine and in the wake of a massive social reorganization that resulted in a toll of tens of millions of deathsк эs we will observe in the next sectionи this dip is also very visible in the historical evolution of the world GDP and warns us about the weight of яhina and its very important role in economicsйrelated world affairsк яuriouslyи and in despite of the data дcalculationsЭе of the UкSк юureau of яensusи the recent evolution дsince нхсме of the world population can be finely fitted by a logistic curveи which delivers a slightly different result regarding both—the extrapolaй tion to the year омсм and the turning point corresponding to the maximum growth rateк This fitting is shown in Figure тa дthe logistic curveе and тb дthe same in the form of a FisherйPry plotеи which were obtained using the IIэSэ’s LSM II program дIIэSэи омннек эs can be observed the fitting is absolutely perfect дRо щ неи what implies that we are amidst a natural growth processи with a characteristic time Dt of about нтм Figure 5 Annual rate of growth of the world population 1950–2009 яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | отн Figure 6a Logistic growth of the world population 1950–2009 using IIASA’s LSM2 software Figure 6b Fisher-Pry plot of the world population 1950–2009 using IIASA’s LSM2 software years днхом–омфмеи with an inflexion point in оммм–оммн дmaximum growth rateек The maximum carrying capacity of this process points to a population of about ноИнмт people to be reached by the end of the centuryи but that can stabilize before this maximum дsay by about нмИнмх peopleи considering that the end of a logistic growth ото | Devezas process implies the transition into a new regimeек Our curve points to a population in омсм of about хкуИнмх peopleк In recent paper юoretos доммхе performed the same fitting using the UкSк юureau of яensus’ data set until оммс and has found a somehow moderate resultи with a charй acteristic time Dt щ нну years and a turning point in нххск эccordingly to the set of data used by this author the extrapolation to the year омсм matches the projection of the UкSк юureau of яensusк Let us now call our second agentи the aggregate world outputи or in other wordsи the world GDPк Using Maddison’s data since нхсм we have also fitted a logistic curve and the result is depicted in Figure уa дlogistic curveе and уb дFisherйPry plotек The fitй ting is not so perfect дRо щ мкххте as in the previous case of Earth’s populationи but works equally wellк The resulting logistic corresponds to a natural growth process with a characteristic time Dt ~ ннм years that will saturate about омфм with a turning point дpeak of the growth rateе around омпмк юoretos доммхе has tried the same fitting using a different dataset and numbers only until оммс and has found a similar result with a characterй istic time of about one century and a turning point in омнск Unnecessary to stress that these differences are absolutely irrelevant considering that we are using different datasets and in our fittings we have used more recent data дuntil оммфеи which has Figure 7a Logistic growth of the world GDP-PPP 1950–2008 яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | отп Figure 7b Fisher-Pry plot of the world GDP-PPP 1950–2008 naturally contributed to a slightly higher carrying capacity and pushed the turning point ahead in timeк The main reason for this difference lies in the higher world GDP growth rates observed in the period оммт–оммфи which we will further analyze in the next sectionк These results require some further thoughtк What is the meaning of these natuй ral growth processesы Why the GDP has grown faster than populationы There are no simple answers to these questions and their deep analysis deviates from the purpose of this pieceк юut a few words about their meaning are worth puttingк Human population and its output are growing since the onset of civilization some five millennia agoк юut contrary to a widespread impressionи the story of world popuй lation of the last сммм years is not one of continuous exponential growthк Ratherи it can be best described as a series of three major surgesи each more substantial than its predecessorи but both of the first two surges also followed by a long period of populaй tion stability дDevezas в Modelskiи оммпек The graph depicted in Figure н shows only the last stable period and the last spikeйlike surge respectivelyк эs already shown by Devezas and Modelski дIbidкеи this омммйyear process corresponds to the formation of the global systemи one of the globalйinstitutional processes that monitor the progй ress of agentsи and program their developmentsк Nested within this longer process there are other shorter globalйinstitutional processes like the global economy process отр | Devezas д~осм yearsч see Devezas в Modelskiи оммпц table ое that corresponds to the process being analyzed in this paperк эt this point we wish to make stand out the first important result of the present investigationи which can be easily discerned through the comparison between the acй tual points and the path of the logistic growth process shown in Figures уa and уbк In these graphs we have also included the estimated projection for оммх дthe triangle in both graphsи using data from IMF [оммх]ек эs can be seen the actual pointsи mainly beй tween оммс–оммфи evidence a slight deviation upwardsи and the point corresponding the estimate for оммх seems to pull the curve downwards in order to match the origiй nal pathк In order wordsи the present crisis seems to work as a kind of selfйcorrection mechanism of the systemк The next step was to look at the behavior of the unfolding of the global output per capitaк Using the recent data the fitting of a logistic curve does not work wellи a reй sult that diverges from those got by юoretosк In Figure р of his paper this author shows a logistic fitи but the substitution curve is clearly right skewed and the author does not present the error estimatesк юoretos доммхе states that world GDP has increased faster than population at all timesи but this is not true as alias we can infer from the linear fitting of the GDPлcapita exhibited in Figure ф belowк эs can be observed the overall linear fitting is not bad дRо щ михусеи but most imй portant the linear trend is perfect until нхфни deviating downwards after this date and until at least оммни what implies a growth rate of GDP below the population’s growth Figure 8 Linear fitting of the world GDP-PPP per capita 1950–2008 яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | отс during approximately a time span of ом yearsк эfter оммр and until оммф the actual data exhibits an inverted behaviorи that isи the world GDP has grown faster than popuй lation—but this trend stopped abruptly in оммхк эgain the extrapolated point that contains the outcome of the actual crisis seems to pull the trend downwardsк It is clear that if we use the extrapolation for омнм the corresponding point will be located still closer to the straight lineк Resuming the results of this section we haveц нк The present crisis seems to be a kind of selfйcorrection mechanism that brought the global output back to its original logistic growth patternк ок This pattern corresponds to a final phase of the ongoing global economy processи which will saturate before the end of this centuryи signaling that we are entering into a new regime дa new learning processе of the socioeconomic world systemк In the next sections we will see how results from other analysis and approaches reinforce these preliminary conclusionsк 6. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL OUTPUT UNDER A LARGER TIMEFRAME F igure х shows the timely evolution of the GDPйPPP for a set of нф selected counй tries for which the most complete data are available since нфумк These countries together contribute today for ~умб of the global GDP дурб in нхсми and упб in нхумек This result is well knownч everyone is acquainted with the fact that яhina is the country exhibiting the most dramatic GDP growth during the last decadesи and certainly will surpass the USэ in the next decade or soк India and юrazil are also growй ing at fast pacesи but still far below яhinaи while Europe and Japan demonstrate that they are losing momentum in this raceк It is very evident that the former USSR was hit at the late нхфмs by its politicalйeconomical transformation and disaggregationи but is also recovering momentum led by Russia and some of their former membersк This kind of graphical representation does not allow to discern details and much less to perform reliable forecastsк On the other handи the picture is completely difй ferent if we look at annual movements in aggregate activityи or in other wordsи the annual growth rate of GDPк эs will be seen in this sectionи such visualization allows disй cerning changes that have appeared systematically across countriesи due to catastroй phesи political andлor social upheavalsи warsи recessionsи etcк Moreoverи it permits also отт | Devezas Figure 9 GDP-PPP growth 1870–2008 for 18 countries—USA (■), China (à), 12 Western European countries (∆), India (▲), Japan (●), former USSR (□), Brazil (x) Figure 10. World GDP-PPP growth rates 1870–2008 (data from Maddison 2007b). ∆—Estimates for 2009 and 2010 from IMF (2009) яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | оту to distinguish some patternsи as for instance the different phases of Kйwaves observed since нфумк In Figure нм that follows it is depicted the historical record since нфум of the anй nual growth rate of the world GDPйPPP using Maddison’s dataк юefore advancing commenting on some important details of this pictureи it is important to clarify some aspects considered in the construction of this graphк эs already explained in the third section of this workи Maddison’s data set is not complete for the entire time span since нфумк For the construction of the graph shown in Figure нм the data corresponding for the interval нфум–нффр are the numbers for USэ and но WE countriesи where undoubtedly at this time the leading economies in the world дin нффм corresponding to ссб of the world GDPек юetween нффс and нхоу the numbers include also Indiaи Japanи Indonesiaи and юrazil дin нхмм corresponding to ~тнб of the world GDPеи and between нхоф and нхрх the USSR was added to this group дcorresponding in нхрм to ~унб of the world GDPек From нхсм onwards the numbers include all countriesк The validity of this approach can be inferred from the behavior of the two superй posed graphs shown in Figure нни showing the unfolding of the GDP growth rates for the world and for the USэ plus но WE countriesк эs can be observedи the moveй Figure 11 Comparison between the GDP-PPP growth rates for the world (○) and USA plus 12 WE (♦). The last points ∆ (world) and ▲ (USA + 12 WE) are the estimates for 2009 and 2010 from IMF (2009) отф | Devezas Figure 12 Comparison between the GDP-PPP growth rates for the world (○), India (▲), and China (◊). ments—ups and downs—are perfectly ‘in phase’и the only clearly observable differй ence is that the peaks дmaximum growth ratesе and dips дminimum growth ratesе for the world are dampedи due to the fact that the performance for some individual counй tries are not exactly synchronized with the leading countriesк This ‘damping effect’ seems to work well until at least the year оммми when an opposite effect seems to enй ter in actionк юut the general aspect of the graphs suggests clearly that the USэ plus the но WE countries leaded the world economy for the most of the timeк The picture is completely different when we compare the behavior of individual countriesи like India and яhina дdata for яhina are shown only after нхсмеи both with very troubled historyи as shown in Figure но in comparison with the same world graphк It is very clear that the fluctuations are much more radical for the individual countries and not synchronized with the rest of the worldк Note that estimates for оммх and омнм дfrom IMFе were included in all these previй ous graphsк It is also important to point out that we have not used weighted averages in these graphsч weighted averages contribute to a biased picture of the wholeк What we have in all three graphs represent the very fluctuations of the aggregate outputк Now let us try to present in a resumed formи point by pointи the main aspects unveiled when looking at these graphsи or in other wordsи when observing the secular unfolding of the aggregate world outputк яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | отх нк The most striking aspect exhibited by the graph in Figure нм is the very turbulent time during the first half of the омth centuryи which carried within with the effect of two world wars and the most painful economic crisis already experienced by the world economyч note that the ‘dip’ corresponding to this Great Depression is placed exactly in the middle of the ‘double dip’ corresponding to the two world warsи roughly equidistant by ~нс yearsк ок This turbulent time is confined between two periods of ‘peace times’и the first one from нфум until нхнп дthen рп yearsеи and the second one from нхсм until оммф дthen сф yearsек пк The first period of relative stability and ‘peace times’ is marked by two pronounced dips with negative growth ratesи a first one in нфут and a second one in нхмфк The first dip corresponds to the panic of нфупи which gave place to a strong recession of the world economyи but that was especially severe in the USэк The NюER дNational юureau of Economic Researchе statistics дNюER nкdке consider it as the longest recorded contraction cycle in the USэ дтс monthsи нфуп–нфухеи and some authors дNelsonи оммфе have compared it with the current financial crisis due to many common characteristicsк The second dip appears in нхмф and was a consequence of the panic of нхму дюruner в яarrи оммуеи with also dramatic global consequencesи but shorter in duration дin the NюER statistics [Ibidк] for the USэ a contraction cycle of only нп monthsек Despite its short duration it can be considered as a Great Recession comparable in numbers дGDP contractionе to the present crisisк рк Still regarding this first ‘peace times’ periodи we can distinguish two subperiodsц one with a downward trend дdecreasing growth ratesи considering the mean valuesе that extended until at least нфхти soon followed by one with an upward trend дincreasing growth ratesи considering the mean valuesеи that extended until the middle нхомs but was disturbed by the onset of the WWIк We have then two subperiodsц ~нфум to нфхт and нфхт to нхоои each with ~от yearsи that as suggested by many adepts of Kondratieff long waves correspond respectively to the downwave phase дor phase юе of the оnd Kйwave and to the upwave дor phase эе of the пd Kйwaveк ск Regarding the second ‘peace times’ period that followed WWII and started after нхрфи we can more easily distinguish different subperiods—more exactly threeк э first one located between нхрф and нхупи when the global output averaged a growth rate of about сби a second one between нхур and нххои when the global output averaged circa пксби and a third one after нххп when an upward trend is observableи reaching and surpassing the mark of рб дwith a brief interruption оум | Devezas in оммн—the dotкcom bubbleек The reader should note that there is a dip in the worldйseries corresponding to нххфи but comparing with the graphs shown in Figs нн and но we can see that it was not a crisis in the USэ or Europeи but the consequence of the famous эsia яrisis дKaufman et al., нхххеи which started in July нхху in Thailand and spread quickly to many other эsian countriesи including яhina and Indiaк эgain we have subperiods with time spans averaging two decades—in this case now ос years and нф years respectivelyк Kйwaves’ adopters usually associate these subperiods with the up and downwave phases of the рth Kйwaveк Following this schema it seems that after нххо the сth Kйwave might already be startedк We will turn to this point in the next sectionк тк Regarding now the actual crisisи translated by the extrapolated points for оммх and омнм дsmall triangles in Figure нмеи we cannot draw so easily the same conclusion expressed in the previous section of a selfйcorrection mechanism that is pulling the general trend towards its original pathк The points for оммх and омнм resemble much more a pathological symptom signaling that something is wrong with the existing economic systemи or perhaps more exactly expressedи with the existing global financial systemк We use here ‘a pathological symptom’ because we are facing neither a world warи nor a worldwide social upheavalк Something else seems to be hidden behind the factsк ук э closer look again to our graphs of Figures нми нн and но may help to shed some light upon the factsк э very important detail to stress is that we have historically a very important precedent that happened in нхмуи that isи exactly one century ago дorи in other wordsи two Kйwaves agoЭек The phenomenonи known as the ‘нхму юankers Panic’ дюruner в яarrи оммуеи was very similar to the actual crisis under at least two important aspectsц it occurred during an upward trend of the global economy дiкeк during the эйphase of a Kйwaveе and was a pure financial crisis involving market liquidity that led to bankruptcy of many important agents of the banking systemи which quickly spread from New York to Europe and to some эsian countries дsee for comparison graph of Figure ноек The remedy at that time was the same as nowadaysц the injection of large sums of money to shore up the banking systemи soon followed by a profound reform of the UкSк financial systemи which included the creation of the Federal Reserve System дFEDи created in нхнпек The reader should observe in the graph of Figs нм and нн that the dip in оммх mirrors the one in нхмфЭ фк эs already referred to in the paragraph preceding Figure нни it is very evident from the graphs comparing the unfolding of the world GDP and the sum of the USэ plus но WE GDPsи that after оммм a different trend emergedц the growth rates of the world GDP from this date onwards are higher than for the USэ and яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | оун the European countries togetherи an inverse behavior of the GDP evolution to this dateк This push upwards is clearly motivated by the rocketing GDP growth rates observed for India and яhinaи as can be inferred from Figure нок хк Such an inverted trend seems to be a clear signal that we are already witnessing a transition to a new global socioeconomic systemи which will carry with a profound restructuration of world economic affairsк In a few words it means that real growth rates of lowйincome countries have been growing increasingly apart from those of highйincome countriesк See more details in the яonclusionsк нмк эjar with the timesи the present crisis seems to sum up a mix of selfйcorrection mechanism дor at least the urgent necessity of finding the necessary measures for correctionе and signals of an imminent transition to a new world orderк юefore closing this section it is worth bringing to the reader’s attention the fact that negative fluctuations of the world GDP are not su cient condition to characterй ize a great depressionк There are more things at stake when we wish to speak of ecoй nomic recessions with a worldwide impact and severe consequences across countriesк In a very recent book the economists яarmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff доммхе have shown that in order to characterize a real great depression it is necessary to observe not only a considerable contraction of the GDPи but also a significant retracй tion of the worldwide commercial exchangeк For these authors this phenomenon has only occurred three times in the recorded historyц in нхмулнхмфи нхохлнхпп and now in оммуломмхк Many other crisesи like those of нфуплнфухи нхрслнхрти нхфуи нххф or омммломмни have not had the same global impact like these three mentionedи because they have not hit equally both measures дGDP and commerceе or have had only reй gional effects дlike the нххф эsian crisisек This aspect is a very important one regarding our previous conclusions and the parallel between the actual crisis and the нхму Panicк K 7. SCRUTINIZING THE RECENT RECORD OF THE GLOBAL OUTPUT eeping in mind the fact already mentioned in our fifth section дSignals of Satuй rationе that the most reliable data for the global output are those that followed WWIIи it is worth scrutinizing further this recent periodи which we coined as the second ‘peace times’ periodк Figure нпa shows the result of applying an ннйyear moving average to the data of Figure нм дworld GDPйPPP growth ratesе in the period нхру–оммфк эs can be seen it is evident a waveйlike behavior suggesting the fingerprint of a complete long waveк Figй оуо | Devezas Figure 13a 11-year moving average applied to the world GDP-PPP growth rates in the period 1947–2008. The estimates for 2009 and 2010 (∆) were not included in the MA. Figure 13b Result of fitting a simple sinus series P(t) = 4 + 1.03 sin (2p t/50.14) + 0.03 sin2 (2p t/50.14), evincing a periodical movement with a period of about 50 years (the points for 2009 and 2010 were not included in the fitting). яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | оуп ure нпb presents the result of fitting a simple sinus series of the type Pдtе щ Pм з э sin доp tлTе з ю sinо доp tлTе з …и whose solution is Pдtе щ р з нкмп sin доp tлсмкнре з мкмп sinо доp tлсмкнреи evincing then a periodical movement with a period of about см years дthe points for оммх and омнм were not included in the fittingек This result comes to reinforce our conclusion resumed in point с of the previous section that we can divide this recent period in three subperiods—the first and second corresponding to an entire Kйwave and the third corresponding to the upward moveй ment of the following Kйwaveк The entire Kйwave in this curve matches very well the dates that many different authors have presented for the рth Kйwaveи which started about нхрулрфи reached a maximum about the нхумsи and was completed in the first half of the нххмsк The extrapolation for the fifth Kйwave points to a maximum to be reached shortly before омоми or in other wordsи the present expansion movementи although disturbed by the recent crisisи may well continue for more one decadeк The much discussed apparent recovery still on course дcrisis оммуломмхе seems to hint that the system is indeed resilientк I 8. SHRINKING RECESSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS n a recent paper the Italian economist Mario яoccia домнме brings to attention the fact that the duration of business cycles’ contraction phases are far shorter than the duration of expansion phasesк The author observes also that the duration of the recessions corresponding to the downwave phase of a long wave is in average shorter than the upwave phaseк In the case of business cycles the author uses statistics from NюER дnкdке and from the UкSк юureau of Economic эnalysis дюEэеин comparing data for the USэи the UK and Italyк In the case of long waves the author uses an extensive comparison of the dates proposed to this phenomenon by many different longйwave theoristsк His results point to a mean duration of business cycles’ contractions in the USэи between нфср and оммни of about ну monthsи and a mean duration of expansions of about пх monthsи or in other wordsи an average of пнб of the time experiencing economic contraction and тхб experiencing economic expansionк Regarding the Kй waves the author points to an average of about ох years for upwaves дспб of the total timeе and от years for downwaves друб of totalек нк URLц httpцллwwwкbeaкgovк оур | Devezas In this research we decided to explore also this phenomenon using the NюER staй tistics for the USэ and were confronted with two very interesting and unexpected resultsц firstи there exists an increasing trend towards shorter contractions and longer expansionsи and secondи the fingerprint of Kйwaves is clearly visible also in the history of the UкSк юusiness яyclesк Figure нрa shows the graph resulting from the distribution in time of the succesй sion of economic expansions and contractions in the history of business cycles in the USэ since нфсмк In despite of the star fieldйlike aspect of the distribution of the pointsи one can clearly distinguish the enduring trend towards longer expansions and shorter contractions translated by the straight trend lineк The last point in this graph correй sponds to the expansion period that lasted from the end of оммн to the end of омму дуп monthsе and ended with the onset of the actual crisisк Figure нрb presents the resulting омйyear moving average applied to the same historical statisticsк The trend line reveals a waveйlike behavior that coincides with the dating schema used by many longйwave authors and matches very well our concluй sions in the previous sectionsк In this graph we have added a point to the actual criй Figure 14a. Star field-like aspect of the distribution of the succession of economic expansions (▲) and contractions (●) in the history of business cycles in the USA since 1870 (NBER n.d.). The straight trend line translates the trend towards longer expansions and shorter contractions in business cycles. яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | оус Figure 14b 20-year moving average applied to the points of Figure 14a. The trend line reveals a wave-like behavior that coincides with the dating schema used by many long-wave authors corresponding to the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th K-waves. In this graph we have added a point (○) corresponding to the actual crisis considering it with a supposed duration of 24 months. sis considering it with a supposed duration of ор monthsк This point was considered in the moving average in order to observe the path of the trend lineк эgain we are induced to the same conclusion drawn in point н at the end of the fifth section дSigй nals of Saturationе—this last point suggests the action of a selfйcorrection mechanism bringing down a period of excessive growthЭ яoccia домнме suggests that these shrinking contraction periods may be due to a learning process during which governmentдsе have developed functioning methods to undermine the effects of economic recessionsк This suggestion comes to reinforce our second conclusion in the fifth section about a secular learning process of the socioй economic world systemк I 9. MADDISON’S PHASES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH n a publication from омму Maddison доммуaе performs a balance of his impressive and massive historical research about the evolution of the world GDP and GDPл capita since the beginning of the нхth centuryи as well as a detailed analysis of the works of some longйwaves theorists дKondratieffи Kuznetsи эbramovitzи Schumpeterи and longйwave revivalists like Rostowи Mandel and Menschек Maddison concludes that оут | Devezas the existence of a regular longйterm rhythm in economic activity is not proven and states further that there is no convincing evidence to support the notion of regular or systematic long waves in economic lifeк юased mainly on his own data on aggregate performance Maddison however conй cedes that there have been major changes in growth momentum of capitalist develй opment since нфоми which he coins as phases of economic growthк He recognizes five phasesц нфом–нфум дtransition from merchant capitalism to industrial accelerated growthеи нфум–нхнп дliberal phaseеи нхнп–нхсм дbeggarйyourйneighbor phaseеи нхсм– нхуп дgolden ageеи and a last one from нхуп onwards дneoйliberal phaseек яuriously there is some coincidence between these dates and some very important dates used by longйwave adopters either to characterize the duration of a full wave or to mark the transition between phases дup and downе of long wavesк юut there are some oddities to point out in Maddison’s whole analysisк In first place his review of authors contributing to bring empirical evidence on the existence of long waves is far from complete and does not include very important vast research work of authors that have brought robust empirical evidence using most effective mathematical toolsк Maddison reviews basically only classical authors that have tried either to advance economic models to explain the longйwave phenomenon or to presй ent evidence based only on economic statistics дwith the exception of Menschек эs robust empirical and mathematical evidence one must considers at least two authors that have carried during decades днхфмs and нххмsе extensive work on long wavesц the эmerican economist юrian юerry and the Italian physicist яesare Marchettiи whose works were published in the pages of TFвSя and elsewhereк юerry днххне used convincingly chaos theory and spectral analysis to prove the existence of long waves and Marchettiио leading a research team at the International Institute for эpplied Sysй tems эnalysis дIIэSэеи produced some hundred graphical analyses applying the loй gistic substitution model on physical measures of human aggregate activitiesк In our point of view there is a touch of nonsense and exaggeration in simply refusing all the massive evidence brought by both authorsк Indeed it is very di cult to prove the existence of long waves using only ecoй nomic statisticsк There are many variables that must be considered simultaneously and this consists in an almost impossible taskк юut we must recognize that in despite of this inherent di culty there is the register of at least two bold forecasts in recorded ок See яesare Marchetti’s publications at яesare Marchetti Web эrchive дURLц httpцллcesaremarchettiк orgлpublistкphpек яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | оуу Figure 15 Schematic depiction of a hypothetic long wave with nested shorter business cycles. As explained in the text this is just a schematic portrait of a very complex phenomenon and does not intend to render a real depiction of a single variable. historyц Kondratieff himselfи writing between нхоо and нхоти predicted accurately the Great Depression of the нхпмs and there is the famous graph published in нхур by Media General Financial Services that had been widely reproduced by dozens publicaй tions on long waves since then дthe graph was also reproduced in one of our previй ous publications in the pages of TFвSя [Devezas в яorredineи оммн]ек This graphи a schematic depiction portraying the cresting unfolding of Kйwaves since the нухмsи predicted also very accurately the behavior of the world economy in the following decade дthe нхфмsеи when was observed a global reduction of economic growth and retraction of the world commerceи as alias evinced too through the timely evolution of the world GDPйPPP growth rates shown in Figures нпa and нпbк This kind of schematic depiction of Kйwaves has been the preferred target of many criticizers of Kondratieff wavesи who insist on the fact that such regular longй term oscillations do not existк It is clear that such a monotonic upward movement оуф | Devezas Figure 16 Fast Fourier Transform using the Sigview software (Kondratieff 2004) applied to the historical unfolding of the GDP-PPP growth rates presented in Figure 10. We can clearly discern the existence of four frequency peaks: 7.5 years, 15 years, 32 years, and 52 years. during about two decadesи followed by a subsequent two decadesйlong downward movement does not exist indeed—what is necessary to comprehend is that such a representation is just a schematic portrait of very complex behavior that includes the timely unfolding of several variables and does not try to translate the evolution of a unique variableк Perhapsи a bit more realistic representation should include in the upй ward and downward movements the within nested shorter business cyclesи as we try to express through Figure нск юut again it is very important to stress that this is just a schematic depiction of a much complex phenomenon and does not intend under no circumstances to render a real depictionк эs a second oddity in Maddison’s whole analysis we wish to point out the lack of graphical analysisк One really wonders why Maddison does not use graphs in his publicationsк In his famous and very frequently referred book дMaddisonи оммуbеи for instanceи among нор tablesи Maddison presents only seven graphsи and just for comй parisons of GDP cumulated growth дor comparative levels of GDPлcapitaе for pairs of countriesи like UKлJapanи UKлIndiaи USэляhinaи etcк In his own words he says to use ‘inй ductive analysis and iterative inspection of empirically measured characteristics’ дIdem оммуaц нруеи but the most of his analysis and conclusions are drawn only based on яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | оух tabular constructionsи which do not allow perceiving longйterm trends and details of an evolutionary processк эs can be seen in this workи a simple glance at some graphs allows the perception of fingerprints of Kйwavesи as well as the observation of details related to the temporal behavior of a given economicйrelated quantityк It is hard to understand why Maddison is so adamant in his statements about the lack of evidence on Kйwaves if he has never applied mathematical analysis on his monumental set of dataи as for instance spectral analysisк We have already mentioned above the contribution of юrian юerryк This authorи in his оммн paper дюerry et alки оммне has demonstrated the existence of low frequency waves of inflation and economic growth using digital spectra analysisк He and his collaborators have found ~х and ~нфйyear oscillations linked to business and building cyclesи and additional ~оф and стйyear rhythms linked to inflation aloneк Very recently Korotayev and Tsirel домнме have examined minutely the entire data set of Maddison’s GDPйPPP growth rates under the optic of modern spectral analysis and have found very similar resultsи or in other wordsи two strong frequency peaks corresponding to the shorter business cycles дin this case ~ф years and ~нс yearsеи and two longйterm frequency peaks д~пм and ~со yearsе related to long waves—the shorter probably corresponding to upwaves and downwaves movements and the lonй ger corresponding probably to complete Kйwaves oscillationsк In our research we decided then to verify these results and have applied a simple Fast Fourier Transform using the Sigview softwareкп The result is shown in Figure нт where we can clearly discern the existence of four frequency peaksи in this case укс yearsи нс yearsи по years дvery weakе and со years—again practically the same result as those of юerry and KorotayevйTsirelк It is important to stress that ours and Korotayevй Tsirels’ results were found in the same data set where Maddison says that there is no convincing evidence to support the existence of systematic long waves in economic lifeк яlosing this section we wish to briefly discuss a statement of Maddisonи where he wroteц The government regulatory role in the economy has greatly increased. One result of the latter is that the stability of financial institutions has improved. Before the Second World War, depressions were often reinforced by major bank failures, but these are now rarer and their impact is cushioned дMaddisonи оммуaц нтнек пк httpцллwwwкsigviewкcomлdownloadкhtmк офм | Devezas What is curious in this statement is that it is partially true—in factи there have been a learning process during which governments have learned a lot how to reduce the impact of economic shocksи as we have already stressed previouslyи and that explains the phenomenon of shrinking recessions and contractions portrayed in the Figure нрaк юut on the other handи it is completely false regarding the stability of financial institutionsк Let us give a discount to Maddison—he has written these lines shortly before the big financial crash of the end of оммук э 10. GOLD—THE MASTER OF COMMODITIES t the end of the closing chapter of his нхоо book Kondratieff доммре has made a very important observation about the behavior of gold during the unfoldй ing of Kйwavesи which has been bypassed by most of longйwaves analysts up to present daysк In this chapterи with the suggestive title ‘The crisis of нхом–нхон in the system of general movement of conjunctures’ Kondratieff paved the way for his dangerous idea of an incoming дtemporaryе collapse of the world economy and used gold to reinforce his damned prophecyк The inclusion of the word ‘temporary’ here is very importantи because Kondratieff’s dangerous idea was not the forecast of a final collapse дas wished by his юolshevik opponentsеи but the anticipation of a new downй ward waveи which should be followed by another upward wave—orи in other wordsи a general picture of a waveйlike movement of the capitalist systemк Kondratieff wroteц Gold output, on the other hand, showed a remarkable movement, too. Since mid-1890s its output was surging to come to a maximum in 1915 and a subsequent continuous decline… The output of gold is quite likely to plunge into a long depression, which is the most remarkable feature of the current epoch дKondratieff оммрц нонек He follows referring to a study of Joseph Kitchin and presents a table from a pubй lication of this author with data about the annual average growth of gold outputи in which can be seen a minimum in нфнми a maximum in нфруи again a minimum in нфтфи followed by a new maximum in нфхни and declining again after this dateк In the folй lowing paragraphs he wroteц It can be readily seen that the dates and periods displayed match closely the turnarounds and periods of upward and downward waves of the long cycles. It is also quite obvious that the upward waves are coincident with periods of a high annual growth of gold, and vice versa. In this case, we enter upon the area of relatively low яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | офн annual growth of gold, which is going to affect the downward conjunctures of the long cycle… Again this process promises to follow the line of the 1870 дKondratieff оммрц нрнек Indeed a bold forecast and what happened in the following years is the history everyone knows very wellк юut after these lines Kondratieff has made also another very important pointц We can therefore relate to the world economy as being quite likely to enter upon a downward phase of the long cycle. This by no means goes to say that this phase will be clear of its own ups or downs or depressions in terms of minor capitalist cycles. They have always been present in such phases in whatever long cycles of conjunctures of the past. They will surely be present in a downward phase of the long cycle. In a general frame of their variation, however, the conjunctures are most likely to keep downwards. Consequently, elevations in minor cycles of the oncoming period will lack the intensity they would display while on an upward wave of a long cycle. By contrast, crises of this period promise to be sharper, and depressions of minor cycles lengthier дKondratieff оммр [нхоо]ц нроек эgain a bold forecastи and the reader must keep in mind that these lines were written in нхоок What Kondratieff voiced in this last paragraph is exactly what we have tried to express through Figure нс in Section фк The question now isц What does our important actor in world economic affairsи goldи allow us to say about the present trend and what may be forecasted regarding the forthcoming yearsы эs we will see some forecast is indeed possibleи but we have first to consider that the behavior of gold has changed dramatically along with the last centuryи after Kondratieff inspired visionк The graph depicted in Figure р дGold weekly priceе cannot tell us much about the future of gold priceи except perhaps the fact that we are presently witnessing a strong momentum upwardsк Such growth however cannot continue indefinitelyи nothing in the universe growths foreverк юut on the other handи this graph tells us a lot about the gold’s past and recent historyк эs can be seenи since нхмм gold experienced a long period subjected to two levels of constant prices until нхуни when suddenly began to raiseи reaching a first modest peak in нхуси soon followed by a strong peak by the end of нхфми outreaching the level of USа фммк This record was immediately followed by a continuous trend of decreasing prices that endured for ом yearsи reaching a minimum of about USа оум by the end of оммми when gold entered a new phase of an apparй ently unstoppable trend towards ever increasing pricesк офо | Devezas The long period of constant prices belongs to the old times of the ‘gold stanй dard’и which started in юritain after the Napoleonic warsк In the second half of the нхth centuryи a number of nations in Europe and elsewhere followed suitи and the United States adopted the gold standard de facto in нфухи by making the ‘greenbacks’ that the Government had issued during the яivil War period convertible into goldч it then formally adopted the gold standard by legislation in нхмми when our graph beginsк юy нхнри the gold standard had been accepted by a large number of countriesи although it was certainly not universalк During the нффм–нхнр periodи the ‘mint parity’ between the UкSк dollar and sterй ling was approximately аркфуи based on a UкSк o cial gold price of USа омкту per troy ounce дпнкнмпс grе and a UкKк o cial gold price of £ркор per troy ounceк This system worked well during almost forty years when the world economy entered the turbulent phase already referred to when commenting on the graph of Figure нмк We can state that this first period of relative peace corresponded to the real enй trenching stage of a successful international capitalist systemи when there were no changes in the exchange rates of the United Statesи UKи Germanyи and France дthough the same did not hold for a number of other countriesек There were few barriers to gold shipments and few capital controls in the major countriesк яapital flows generally seem to have played a stabilizingи rather than destabilizingи roleк эfter the outbreak of the First World Warи one combatant country after another suspended gold convertй ibilityи and floating exchange rates prevailedк The United Statesи which entered the war lateи maintained gold convertibilityи but the dollar effectively floated against the other currenciesи which were no longer convertible into dollarsк эfter the warи and in the early and midйtwentiesи many exchange rates fluctuated sharplyк Most currencies experienced substantial devaluations against the dollarч the UкSк currency had greatly improved its competitive strength over European currencies during the warи in line with the strengthening of the relative position of the UкSк economyк юut in the very beginning of the turbulent phase that followed WWI дand when Kondratieff issued his first publicationsЭеи there was a widespread desire in Europeи especially in the UKи to return to the stability of the gold standardи and a worry about the growing attractiveness of the dollar—which was convertible into gold—and of dollarйdenominated assetsк Following a disastrous five years back on the gold stanй dardи the UK abandoned it in нхпни and others followed over the next few yearsк Things began to worse and after the onset of the Great Depression in нхох Keynesian economics was the evident remedy found to recover the agonizing patientк яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | офп In эpril нхппи UкSк President Franklin Roosevelt through the Gold Reserve эct imposed a ban on UкSк citizens’ buyingи sellingи or owning goldк While the UкSк Government continued to sell gold to foreign central banks and government institutionsи the ban prevented hoarders from profiting after яongress devalued the dollar дin terms of goldе in January нхпрк This action raised the o cial price of gold by more than тс perй cent дfrom аомкту to апс per troy ounceе and this fact is translated by the first jump to a new level observed in our graph of Figure рк In нхуни when the юretton Woods system broke downи President Richard Nixon ended UкSк dollar convertibility to gold and the central role of gold in world currency systems endedи giving birth to a new era of complete liberalization of capital flowsк The consequences are very clear in the graph of Figure рц the dollar and gold floated and in January нхфм the gold price hit a record of USа фсм per ounceи soon followed by a decrease that endured for almost ом yearsк Only after оммм gold started to escaй late reaching new levels again that make look overt the нхфм’s recordк What can be learned from this pictureы The first quite obvious lesson is that the remedy found to fight the system’s illness does not hold for a long timeк It is as if the doctors дeconomistsе were combating only the symptoms and not really fighting the true intrinsic system’s sicknessк The relief measures insistently applied until now by mainstream economics consists in failed contraйcyclical policies that systematically overlook some strong forces underlying the global economyк These strong forces are mainly the inexorable human propensity to hoard and the physicalйbiological imperatives acting upon the complex socioeconomй ic systemк The latter was already analyzed in deep in some of our previous publicaй tions дDevezas в яorredineи оммни оммое and we do not intend to discuss in this paperк It is looking at the former that we can discern some important hints that can help us to correctly read the historical unfolding of the role played by this important actor— gold—in the whole piece of economic capitalist developmentк The reason for our title—the master of commodities—lies in the fact that gold is the most hoardable commodityк Gold does not tarnish or fadeч it resists the entropic laws of decayи and its high specific gravity contributes to the fact that the opportunity cost of hoarding gold is far lower than that of hoarding any other commodityк Gold is essentially money of last resort and has been the most effective hedge against turbuй lent timesи be they caused by wars or economic depressionsк For all over the recorded history humans have shown an inexorable trend to hoard gold bullions and all the sudden changes observed in the unfolding of the graph depicted in Figure р were due to governments measures trying to oppose this strong economic forceк Unnecessary офр | Devezas Figure 17 Purchasing Power of Gold (PPG) compared to the Purchasing Power of US Dollar (PPD) since the 1790s to point out that such measures have never worked дin the long rangeе in favor of the health of the socioeconomic realmк The increasing price trend evinced since оммн is the clearest proof of the action of hoarding per seк юut in order to draw effective conclusions about the future path of the world ecoй nomic system is necessary to look at gold’s history other way aroundк In нхуу юerkeй ley’s Professor Roy Jastram in his seminal work The Golden яonstant—The English and эmerican Experienceи нстм–нхут дJastramи нхууе demonstratedи for the first timeи how gold’s purchasing power had been maintained over the centuriesк Dividing the gold price index by the wholesale price index he found that the Purchasing Power of Gold дPPGе has fluctuated around a broadly mean valueк Howeverи Jastram’s research ended in нхути and therefore he barely foresaw the impact of the new era of floating gold priceи still at its genesisк Very recently Jastram’s original work was updated by Leyland дJastram в Leylandи оммхе in a research supported by the World Gold яouncilк The new edition contains two additional chapters дand the relevant statisticsе examining the period from нхун to оммук The conclusions about the behavior of the Purchasing Power of Gold differ somewhat between the periods before нхуни when the gold price was controlledи and afterи when it was freeк Neverthelessи one conclusion remains unchanged—that gold maintains its purchasing power over long periods of time even thoughи over shorter periodsи it has fluctuated significantlyк юut more importantlyи this new research demй onstrates that now gold moves just the opposite of what it used to doк юefore нхун яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | офс gold lost value during inflationary spiralsи while it appreciated in value during major deflationsк The reason was obviousц gold was fixed in priceк юut after нхуни when the gold was delinked and set free to fluctuateи the price of gold goes up when inflation goes upи and falls when deflation hitsк In Figure ну we present a graph portraying the Purchasing Power of Gold дPPGе and as comparison the Purchasing Power of US Dollar дPPDе since the нухмs recentй ly published in the Web by the эmerican Institute for Economic Researchк There are some very important points to infer from this graph that we try to resume belowц нк юoth purchasing powers have unfolded perfectly in phase until at least the early нхпмsи when they began to diverge and this diversion aggravated substantially after нхунк ок There is evidently a waveйlike behavior and the maxima and minima of the fluctuations before the early нхомs match closely the dates for the turnarounds of long waves pointed out by Kondratieff that we referred to at the beginning of this sectionч the dip in the early twenties also matches Kondratieff’s forecastк пк The смйyear beat of the maxima of these long fluctuations is absolutely evident—нфрмsи нфхмsи and late нхпмsк Even the peak reached in нхфн falls within the long wave timeframeк It is indeed hard to understand the intestine refuse by mainstream economics in believing in the existence of long wavesк рк In нхун for the first time in history PPG jumped suddenly from a value below to a value above its historical averageи and no more returned to the field below шнкммк эfter a brief hesitation in the midйнхумsи PPG rocketed again in нхфм–фни when gold price reached the first maximum shown in Figure рк This was a decade днхум–нхфме not just of high inflation but it also included the two oil price ‘shocks’ and what appeared at the time to be the end of the postйwar ‘miracle’ growth of the нхсмs and нхтмsк ск эfter the maximum reached in нхфм–нхфн PPG entered a омйyear long declining periodи during which a selfйcorrection mechanism seemed to act in order to bring it down to its original path along with its historical averageк That was the time of the ‘great moderation’ of the decades нхфмs and нххмsи a period of disinflationи generally improving economic circumstancesи mostly strong stock markets and marked politically by the fall of communismк тк In contrastи since оммн the PPG has risen again due to the wellйknown concern over global imbalances and rising debtи which culminated in the current economic and financial crisisк офт | Devezas ук яomparing the last decreasing period of PPG днхфм–оммн щ он yearsе with the preceding ones днфро–нфум щ оф yearsи нфхс–нхом щ ос yearsи нхрм–нхун щ пн yearsе we can say that it was relatively shorterи but not very far awayк эssociating this fact with the observation that PPG is presently going away from its historical average we can suspect that we are facing an anomalyи or at least we are experiencing a transition phase as we have already pointed out when analyzing other economic indicatorsк фк Such an anomalyи or if we preferи the imminence of a transition phaseи is evident from the ‘bifurcation’ дperhaps betterи divergenceе presented in the graph of Figure нук It is quite possible дin fact it is the case since нхуне that a portion of the increase of PPG is really just the outcome of the decrease of PPDи considering that the change in gold price is simply a mathematical recalculation of an everй changing US Dollar valueк хк The history of fiat currencies is that they lose their purchasing power over timeк юecause a limited amount of gold exists in the world and paper money can be created without limitsи gold has been an ultimate protection against the debasement of currenciesк If we look at the historical charts of the purchasing power of major currencies as well as the amount of these currencies in circulation дseeи eкgки the graphs presented by Financial Sense University [Hewitt and Petrov оммх]е what we see is that all major currencies have lost steadily purchasing power since нхун—US Dollar is now at омб of its level in нхуни Gю Pound at нфби яanadian Dollar at нфби эustralian Dollar at нмби Japanese Yen at умб and Figure 18 Ratio DJIA/Gold price considered weekly since 1900. яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | офу Swiss Franc at умбк Opposed to this decrease the amount of circulating paper money of the same currencies grew by a factor ф дUSDеи с дGюPеи нм дяэDеи ом дэUDеи нм дJPYеи and п дяHFе respectivelyк On the other handи the amount of mined gold has grown slowly and almost linearlyи from about хсИнмп metric tonnes in нхун to about нтмИнмп metric tonnes in оммф дa factor of only нкт in more than three decadesч [Hewitt and Petrov оммх]ек Resuming this pointи the amount of available gold дor gold outputе is not the cause of the movements of PPG after нхунч the subjacent cause lies in the combination of two other linked factors—an everйincreasing debasement of currencies and declining днхун–нхфне or improving днхфн–оммне economic circumstancesк нмк юut supposing that in despite of the changed circumstances the system is resilient and that the PPG will not deviate very much from its historical average дconsidering also that hoarding has its natural limitsеи we might conjecture that the actual increasing trend of PPG дand naturally also of gold priceе can continue until омнм–омнн дa decade after оммнеи but will return to its historical mean valueи a process that may involve one or two decades of economic growth that will coincide with the upward phase of the сth Kйwave peaking about омомк This forecast matches well our previous considerations when discussing the world GDPк There is also another way to look at the historical unfolding of gold price calling to playing other of our important agents—the Dow Jones Industrial эverage дDJIэек We can calculate a ratio dividing the DJIэ weekly index by the weekly price of goldи or in other wordsи to determine the historical record of the answer to the questionц how many ounces of gold does the Dow Jones Industrial index buyы The яanadian financial analyst Ian Gordon originally developed this methodи which he uses as an economic forecasting toolк The resulting graph is shown in Figure нфи and as we can see there is also a clear regular waveйlike patternк The patternи howeverи is quite different from that presented in Figure ну—it seems inverted with relation to PPGи some of the PPG peaks are now pronounced dips and the waves have now a skewed aspectи evidencing two or three decades of growth folй lowed by sudden fallsк The first quick movement downward was soon after the stock market crash of нхохи and lasted only until нхппи recovering after Roosevelt’s Gold Reserve эctк It followed an upward movement during almost three decadesи which stopped around нхтс–нхтт in consequence of a hesitating stock marketк In нхун again a sudden drop after the end of the US dollar convertibilityи which extended until офф | Devezas нхур and was followed by the profound dip in нхфн that was due to the combination of a bearish stock market and an accentuated gold rally in pricesк The last wave begins then in нхфн and one can read in this curve the timid stock market crash of нхфуи which was followed by a rapid increase of the ratio DJIэлGold дmainly after нххоеи not only due to a worldwide bullish stock marketи but also due to the healthy economic growth дand consequently to the cheaper goldе of the нххмsи which the Nobelist Joseph Stiglitz доммпе coined as ‘The Roaring Nineties’к э peak in the ratio happened in оммми and after the dotйcom bubble burst it has followed a steadily downward trendк The actual situation is one of a hesitating stock marketи mainly due to fears of an imminent inflationи and of a gold rally that many financial analysts дWiegand оммхе want to believe that will continue for a while with gold prices escalating until over USа охммЭ May be such a so high price level will never be reachedи but a simple exй trapolation of our curve of Figure нф induce us to hope that a minimum of the raй tio might be reached very soonи which may be soon followed by an upward moveй mentи implying in a recovering economyк яonsidering also the regular beat of the peaks—нхох–нхтс–оммми or in other wordsи a period of about пм–пс years дor a half Kйwaveеи we can speculate that the next peak might be reached by about омпм or earй lierк яoncluding this section we can state that the historical evolution of gold allow us to foresee that the present circumstances of a weakening dollarи a bearish stockйmarй ketи and increasing gold prices will reach the end very soon and a renewed economic upsurge may well take place lasting at least until the decade омом–омпмк I CONCLUSIONS n this paper we have investigated the global secular evolution of four important economicйrelated actorsи whose interplay when scrutinized with the suitable anaй lytical tools evince some historical patterns that shed some light on what is going on with the world economic systemк These actors areц the world populationи the world aggregate output known as Gross Domestic Product дGDPеи the historical leader of all commodities—Goldи and the still most important financial indexи the DJIэ дDow Jones Industrial эverageек эlso the succession of economic depressions and expansion periй ods in the US was examinedк яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | офх The main conclusions of this research are summarized belowц нк Fingerprints of Kondratieff long waves are ubiquitous in all observed timeй series used in this research—world GDP growth ratesи succession of economic expansionsйcontractions in the USэи purchasing power of gold and the historical ratio DJIэлgold priceк ок Regarding the present crisis we can state that it has some unique characteristicsи which distinguish it from all previous economic depressionsк юut in despite of its unique characteristics a parallel with the panic of нхму may be drawn—both have occurred amidst a strong international growth period and are perfectly symmetric in the observed spaceйtime patternк пк The most important conclusion concerning this crisis is that it seems to sum up a mix of a selfйcorrection mechanism that brought the global output back to its original logistic growth patternи and signals an imminent transition to a new world economic orderк рк The next decade will be probably one of worldwide economic growthи corresponding to the second half of the expansion phase of the fifth Kйwaveи but that will saturate soon after the омомsк ск There are strong signals that we are already witnessing a transition to a new global socioeconomic systemи which will carry within it a profound restructuration of world economic affairsи with a multipolar world leadership and a new world currencyк The trend analysis applied in this research using logistic curvesи spectral analysis and the singularity approach converge to the same general result of an evolutionary trajectory leading the world system toward a true age of transitionк Regarding this last conclusion it is important to make stand out the fact translated by our results shown in Figure нн дand commented on in point х of Section те that real growth rates of lowйincome countries have been growing increasingly apart from those of highйincome countriesк Since the onset of the Industrial эge highйincome countries have contributed with at least about умб for the global output measured as world GDP growth rateк Recent numbers of the United Nations Development Proй gramme presented by Marone доммхе show that this historical trend was maintained up to the midйнххмsи with the contribution of all income categories being roughly constantк юut after this point and up to омму growth contribution from lowйincome countries surged by more than threefoldи from around нмб дmidйнххмsе to almost псб доммуек In the midйнххмs highйincome countries contributed with ууб for the охм | Devezas global output growthи and lowлmiddleйincome countries contributed with опбк Presй ently these numbers have radically changed to хсб from lowлmiddleйincome and only сб from highйincome countriesк Indeedи we are amidst a great transformationк In this work we have applied a broad perspective approach with the main goal of exploring past events encompassing the action of the four actorsлvariablesлagents toй gether in order to find patterns of behavior that can concede us to comprehend what is going onк We just tried to construct a ‘timescape’ using these variables that allow us to discern for instance that an incoming transition seems to be on marsh and that the present crisis exhibits symptoms of a saturating world economic systemк We avoided bold forecasts and have speculated only about the very near futureи within a time hoй rizon of about two decadesи a future that somehow is already determined by today’s actions дand nonйactionsе and circumstancesк юut as we all know very wellи contingency exists and there are much more variй ables that must be considered in order to construct the most probable scenariosк We hope that our present results may contribute for more embracing studies that applyй ing the multiple perspectives approach may lead to the enhancement of our ability to think constructively about the future of economics on a global scaleк REFERENCES эmerican Institute for Economic Research оммхк The Value of Goldи October сthк URLц httpцлл wwwкaierкorgлresearchлbriefsломххйtheйvalueйofйgoldк эnalyze Indicesк Market and Industry Indices nкdк History of the Dow Jones Industrial эverageц нхмм–оммук URLц httpцллwwwкanalyzeindicesкcomлdowhistoryлdjiaйнммкtxtк юerryи юк Jк Lк нххнк LongйWave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political юehaviorк юaltimore—Londonц Johns Hopkins University Pressк юerryи юк Jк Lки Kimи Hки and юakerи Eк Sк оммнк Low Frequency Waves of Inflation and Economic Growthц Digital Spectra эnalysisк Technological Forecasting and Social яhange тфц тп–урк юoretosи Gк Pк оммхк The Future of the Global Economyк Technological Forecasting and Social яhange утц пнт–потк юouchaudи Jк Pк оммфк Economics Needs a Scientific Revolutionк Nature рссц ннфн–ннфпк оммхк The дUnfortunateе яomplexity of the Economyк arXivц мхмркмфмсvн [qйfinкGN]к юrunerи Rки and яarrи Sк оммук The Panic of нхму—Lessons Learned from the Market’s Perfect Stormк Hobokenи NJц John Wiley в Sonsк яocciaи Mк омнмк The эsymmetric Path of Long Waves and юusiness яycles юehaviorк Technological Forecasting and Social яhange ууц упм–упфк яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | охн Devezasи Tк як нххук The Impact of Major Innovationsц Guesswork or Forecastingк Journal of Futures Studies ндоец пп–смк оммхк The Evolutionary Trajectory of the World System toward an эge of Transitionк In Thompsonи Wк Rк дedкеи Systemic Transitions дppк ооп–ормек New Yorkц Palgrave MacMillanк Devezasи Tки and яorredineи Jк оммнк The юiological Determinants of Long Wave юehavior in Socioeconomic Growth and Developmentк Technological Forecasting and Social яhange тфц н–сук Devezasи Tки and яorredineи Jк оммок The Nonlinear Dynamics of Technoeconomic Systemsц эn Informational Interpretationк Technological Forecasting and Social яhange тхц пну–псук Devezasи Tк яки LePoireи Dки Matiasи Jк як Oки and Silvaи эк Mк Pк оммфк Energy Scenariosц Toward a New Energy Paradigmк Futures рмц н–нтк Devezasи Tк яки and Modelskiи Gк оммпк Power Law юehavior and World System Evolutionц э Millennial Learning Processк Technological Forecasting and Social яhange умц фнх–фсхк Hewittи Mки and Petrovи Kк оммхк Money Supply and Purchasing Powerк URLц httpцллwwwк financialsenseкcomлfsuл editorialsлdollardazeломмхлмоопкhtmlк IMF оммхк International Monetary Fundк World Economic Outlook Updateи July фthк URLц httpцллwwwкimfкorgлexternalлpubsлftлweoломмхлupdateлмолpdfлмумхкpdfк IIэSэ омннк International Institute of эpplied Systems эnalysesи Logistic Substitution Model IIк URLц httpцллwwwкiiasaкacкatлResearchлTNTлWEюлSoftwareлLSMолlsmойindexкvhtmlк Jastramи Rк Wк нхуук The Golden яonstant—The English and эmerican Experienceи нстм– нхутк New Yorkц Wileyк Johansenи эки and Dornetteи Dк оммнк FiniteйTime Singularity in the Dynamics of the World Populationи Economic and Financial Indicesк Physica э охрц ртс–смок Jastramи Rк Wки and Leylandи Jк оммхк The Golden яonstant—The English and эmerican Experienceи нстм–оммук Northamptonц Edgard Elgarк Kaufmanи Gк Gки Kruegerи Tк Hки and Hunterи Wк як нхххк The эsian Financial яrisisц Originsи Implicationsи and Solutionsк юerlinц Springerк Kitco nкdк Daily Gold яhartsк URLц httpцллwwwкkitcoкcomлchartsлhistoricalgoldкhtmlлк Kondratieffи Nк Dк оммрк The World Economy and its яonjunctures during and after the Warк Moscowц International Kondratieff Foundation [first English translation of the original from нхоо]к Korotayevи эк Vки and Tsirelи Sк Vк омнмк э Spectral эnalysis of World GDP Dynamicsц Kondratieff Wavesи Kuznets Swingsи Juglar and Kitchin яycles in Global Economic Developmentи and the оммф–оммхк Economic яrisisи Structure and Dynamics рднец п–сук URLц httpцллwwwк escholarshipк orgлucлitemлхjvнмфxpк Maddisonи эк nкdк Historical Statisticsи Statistics on World Populationи GDPи and Per яapita GDPи н–оммт эDи Horizontal and Vertical Filesк URLц httpцллwwwкggdcкnetлmaddisonлк Maddisonи эк оммуaк Fluctuations in the Momentum of Growth within the яapitalist Epochк яliometrica нц нрс–нуск охо | Devezas Maddisonи эк оммуbк яontours of the World Economy н–омпм эD—Essays in MacroйEconomic Historyк New Yorkц Oxford University Pessк Maroneи Hк оммхк Economic Growth in the Transition from the омth to the онst яenturyк UNDPлODS Working Paperк New Yorkц United Nations Development Programmeк NюER nкdк National юureau of Economic Researchк US юusiness яycles Expansions and яontractionsк URLц httpцллwwwкnberкorgлcyclesлcyclesmainкhtmlк Nelsonи Sк Rк оммфк Panic of нфуп Revisitedц The Real Great Depressionк The яhronicle Review October нук URLц httpцллchronicleкcomлweeklyлvсслiмфлмфbмхфмнкhtmк Reinhartи як Mки and Rogoffи Kк Sк оммхк This Time is Different—Eight яenturies of Financial Follyк Princeton—Oxfordц Princeton University Pressк Stiglitzи Jк Eк оммпк The Roaring Nineties—э New History of the World’s Most Prosperous Decadeк New York—Londonц WкWк Norton в яoк Stiglitzи Jк Eк оммхк GDP Fetishismк The Economics Voice тдфек DOIц нмкоомолнсспйпфпокнтснк US яensus юureau nкdк International Data юaseк World Population Growth Ratesц нхсм–омсмк URLц httpцллwwwкcensusкgovлpopulationлinternationalлdataлidbлworldgrgraphкphpк Wiegandи Rк оммхк Gold Prepares for the юig Oneк URLц httpцллwwwкkitcoкcomлindлWieg_corл roger_junосоммхкhtmlк яhapter нпц The Recent Global яrisis under the Light of the Long Wave Theory | охп Chapter 14 LOCAL SOLUTIONS IN A GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT: FACILITATING NATIONAL STRATEGIES IN NEW ZEALAND Jim Sheffield How should New Zealand respond to the multiple, intertwined and fast-changing impacts of globalization? What strategies are available to this small South Pacific country and how may these be facilitated? This empirical research frames the facilitation of selected local solutions in a global environment within the theoretical perspective of pluralism and communicative action. The facilitation of aspects of national policies in the domains of science funding, economic development and regional growth is reviewed. Electronic meeting technology was employed. The focus question is: ‘Does electronic discourse increase the success of local solutions in a global environment?’ Keywords: New Zealandи local solutionsи global environmentи pluralismи communicaй tive actionи electronic discourseк яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | охс 1. A NEW ZEALAND RESPONSE TO GLOBALIZATION Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run, it is almost everything. A country’s ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker. Krugman нхху R aising productivity is the core economic challenge for New Zealand over the medium termк Smallи highйproductivity economies rely heavily on international connections—the flows of peopleи capitalи trade and ideas between countries around the world дNew Zealand Governmentи оммхек In the current era of globalizaй tionи New Zealand’s combined lack of any major home market effectи small popuй lation and lack of major agglomeration effectsи and the extreme geographical isoй lationи breaks the usual link between entrepreneurshipи innovation and growth дMcй яannи оммхек Domestic policy settings in science fundingи economic developmentи and regional planning are critical to making the most of international opportunitiesк э wellйfunded science sector encourages entrepreneurial and innovative activity to be located in New Zealand and facilitates international knowledge transferк Economic development improves competitiveness in global marketsи including those in the эsiaй Pacific regionк Regional planning in эucklandи New Zealand’s major growth areaи atй tracts skilled migrants and reduces the loss of New Zealandйborn citizens to эustralia and other countries дяheshireи омное дFigure нек Figure 1 Some aspects of a New Zealand response to globalization охт | She eld Science funding Sponsor: New Zealand Ministry of Research, Science and Technology Task: Allocation of the US(2012)$2 Billion Public Good Science Fund across all 40 areas of NZ science Role/process/group: Design of a 5-day group decision process for a 5-year planning and budgeting period. Implementation of the process with the national Science and Technology Expert Panel Goal: Legitimacy in science governance. A national consensus on priorities and transparency in funding Economic development Sponsor: New Zealand Trade Development Board Task: To upgrade New Zealand’s competitive position in global markets Role/process/group: Design of 70 industry-wide strategic planning interventions conducted with the assistance of Harvard’s Michael Porter. Implementation with 1,000+ industry leaders Goal: Improved relationships among industry stakeholders and formation of joint action groups Regional planning Sponsor: Auckland Regional Council Task: Strategic evaluation of long-term plans for the Auckland region, NZ’s main growth area Role/process/group: Design of a group decision process to close out a 7-year planning cycle. Implementation with representatives of the 7 territorial authorities and the Auckland Regional Council Goal: Improved trust and understanding among decision makers. Support for a consensus spatial plan Table 1 Facilitating national strategies in New Zealand This article reviews the facilitation of aspects of national policies in the domains of science fundingи economic development and regional planning дTable нек Electronic meeting technology was employedк The focus question isц ‘Does electronic discourse increase the success of local solutions in a global environmentы’ The remainder of the article is structured as followsк Section о develops a theoretical frameworkк Section п describes the methodology for gathering empirical evidenceк Sections р–т review the facilitation casesк Section у discusses the findings in the light of the theoretical frameй workк Section фи which considers the lessons learnedи concludes the articleк F 2. THEORY DEVELOPMENT acilitating national policies required extensive consultation among a large numй ber of stakeholders in different organizationsк The context was pluralistic—the objectives of social actors were divergent and power was diffused дJarzabkowski в Fentonи оммтч Denis et al., оммуек э modern information and communication techй nology—electronic meeting systems—has been found useful in supporting organiй zational groups engaged in strategic planning activities within an established power яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | оху structure дFjermestad в Hiltzи оммнч Shaw et al., оммпекYet research on electronic supй port in the context of pluralism and interйorganizational meetings suggests that the role of electronic meeting systems is unclearк For exampleи if electronic technology is employed in a meeting sponsored by one organization but attended by members of other organizationsи whose interpretation of the ends served by the electronicallyй supported meeting should determine successы Who is the clientы дэckermann et al., оммсек What roles and responsibilities will be recognizedы дFrancoи оммфек Is it sensible to expect powerful stakeholders to use collaborative technologies when these introй duce unwanted accountability and make the exercise of power more di cultы дSchulй tze в Leidnerи оммоч Lewis et al., оммуек What type of model should drive the facilitaй tion processы дMortonи эckermannи в юeltonи оммпек юy what conceptдsе of rationality or validity should the facilitator be held accountable for a positive outcomeы дKolfй schoten et al., оммуек Interйorganizational meetings require the surfacing and testing of assumptions from opposing perspectives дMitroff в Linstoneи нххпек In dialectical terms a pair of opposing perspectives is seen as a Hegelian thesis and antithesis дMilй let в Goganи оммсек Ignorance is reduced via active engagement with the conflict and confusion that accompany surfacing and reconciling opposing дmultiple or pluralisticе perspectivesи and giving birth to a newи more current synthesisк Habermas днхфре provides a theory about how claims to pluralistic knowledge should best emerge from the communicative processк In Habermas’s theory of comй municative actionи an ideal speech situation is defined as one in which all participants are free to question any utterance on the basis of its claims to objective truthи rightй ness for the contextи and sincerity of the speakerк The speaker must be open to hearй ing and rationally responding to the questions that are askedк Power relationsи that in other circumstances might allow some participants to ignore the perspectives of othй ersи are set aside in favour of genuine dialogueк In the theory of communicative action knowledge is evaluated from three perй spectives дHabermasи нхфрц нммец • Personal perspective д‘why I feelи and would be’ек The personal or subjective world that is the totality of the experiences to which the speaker or actor has privileged access дbecause it is the speaker or actor that experienced themек яlaims to subjective truth are evaluated in terms of the sincerity of the speaker or actorк • Interpersonal perspective д‘what we sayи and should be’ек The totality of interpersonal relations legitimately regulated by contextual expectations or normsк яlaims to interpersonal norms are evaluated in terms of the rightness of the speakers or actorsк охф | She eld • Technical Perspective д‘how it isи and could be’ек The technical world of material fact that is the totality of all entities about which objectively true statements are possibleи or could be bought about by purposeful interventionк яlaims to facts and technical expertise are evaluated in terms of objective truthк The ideal speech situation provides a standard of excellence for the reflective communicative action undertaken by two or more stakeholders in order to stabilize mutual understandingк Similarly group decision is seen as a collaborative process that seeks ‘rightness’ in the fit дcoherenceе between personal valuesи interpersonal objecй tives and technical decision criteria дShakunи оммпек This requires participants to deй velop and integrate perspectives from generic roles that яhurchman terms system designer дmore technicalлtask orientedеи decision maker дmore interpersonalлconsenй sus orientedе and client дmore subjectiveлvalue orientedе дяhurchman нхунц оммек Five facilitation principles based on pluralism and communicative action are presented in Table ок Integration of the Habermasian perspectives on knowledge is an exercise in senй semaking дWeickи нхухек Themes are detected both prospectively and retrospectively and emerge from communicative acts in a somewhat unpredictable mannerк Neverй theless it is common for discourse on intentions to proceed from the personal to the technicalи followed by discourse on outcomes that proceed from the technical to the personal дShakunи оммпек Each pair of discourses дintention and outcomeе in the same knowledge perspective develops mutual understanding via one of the principles in Table о and evaluates rationality via the relevant Habermasian knowledge claim дShefй field оммсек The standard of excellence for communicative action can be stated as followsц personal commitment дvalidated by sincerityе to an interpersonal consensus дvalidated by rightnessе for technical excellence дvalidated by objective truthек Each aspect of excellence is associated with Principle ни о or п and the collective value of all three principles is evaluated in terms of Principle р and Principle с дTable оек In the current research pluralism and electronic discourse are evaluated via qualitative measures of the impact on overall success of the facilitation principles and associated framework дFigure оек Pluralism is a notable feature not only of communicative action but of research in areas as diverse as neuroscience дLehrerи оммхеи knowledge management дShe eld в Guoи оммуaи оммуbч She eldи оммфbеи organizational sensemaking дWeickи нхухч Snowden в юooneи оммуе and systemic development дShe eldи оммфaи оммхaч Midgй ley в Pinzoи омннек Recent advances in neuroscience ground pluralism in the biology of decision behavior дLehrerи оммхч She eldи омноек Various scanning devices reveal яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | охх Principle 1. Personal commitment Express claims to sincerity by free and open disclosure of participants’ subjectivity (identity, experience and values) Ensure that participants give voice to their personal commitments and multiple identities and that periods of silence are provided as an aid to ethical self-relection The procedure for evaluating the evidence should be validated by expressing beliefs and aspirations, voices and images (‘story telling’) that are unconstrained by technical issues and unrestrained by the inter-personal context Principle 2. Interpersonal agreement Enact claims to rightness via discussion among all those who are entitled to be represented Ensure that the discussion addresses the role-based needs of stakeholders The procedure for evaluating the evidence should be validated by full participation in a debate conducted under the norms of established legitimate inter-personal relationships Principle 3. Technical excellence Present claims to objective truth via research evidence Ensure that the indings by technical experts are examined critically and the indings documented The procedure for evaluating the evidence should be validated by a willingness to adopt a cognitive, objectivating attitude towards the facts. Listen to the evidence, look at the facts—avoid partisan delusions Principle 4. Coherence Assuming that claims for valid personal, interpersonal and technical knowledge have been surfaced, ensure that they are coherent. An apparent contradiction (thesis and antithesis) should serve as a precursor to a Hegelian synthesis. Oh my God, I was wrong! We were all wrong! The procedure for evaluating coherence should be validated by a willingness to probe the evidence from all three perspectives, to identify strengths and weaknesses in the evidence, and to identify tradeofs Principle 5. Overall Success J Success is conceptualised in Churchmanian terms as a meeting of the minds about intertwined relational and task issues that creates the capability of choosing the right means for one’s desired ends This requires participants to develop and integrate perspectives from generic roles that Churchman terms system designer (more technical/task oriented), decision maker (more interpersonal/consensus oriented) and client (more subjective/value oriented) More speciically, success is indicated by insight leading to a consensus model that provides decision makers with a rationale for action Table 2 Five facilitation principles based on pluralism and communicative action. Adapted from Churchman, 1971; Habermas (1984) пмм | She eld Figure 2 A framework for facilitating national strategies in New Zealand based on pluralism and communicative action (Habermas 1984). Adapted from Sheffield (2004, 2009b) that the brain is an argument between neural regions dealing with emotionи morality and reasonк Seen through the perspective of neuroscience the standard of excellence in group decision making becomes the pursuit of success through emotional commitй ment to a moral agreement for reasoned excellenceк Pluralism can be viewed as a consequence of intertwined relationship and task issuesи and intertwined divergent and convergent thinkingк The electronic discourse and supporting technology employed in the current research supported pluralism via two key attributesк Firstlyи the technology provided a degree of anonymity that reй duced the anxiety about surfacing opposing perspectivesк This reduced participants’ conflict about personal дemotionalе commitments and interpersonal дmoralе issuesк Secondlyи the technology reduced confusion by providing automatic recording of all electronic discourse д‘group memory’ек This enhanced participants’ technical дreasonй ingе capabilitiesк Together these attributes allowed procedures for idea generation дdivergent thinkingе to be separated in time from procedures for information analyй sis дconvergent thinkingек This in turn enabled a separate focus on interlocked issues about relationships дtrustе and cognition дunderstandingек In the current research all of these concepts are included in the evaluation of satisfaction with electronic discourse дFigure пек яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | пмн Figure 3 Evaluation of participant’s satisfaction with electronic discourse. э 3. METHODOLOGY multiple case study approach was adoptedк The unit of analysis was a meeting дor series of meetingsе facilitated by a leader in the domain of either science fundingи economic development or regional planningк The facilitator was not part of the research teamк The research team consisted of two academics and two asй sistantsк The role of the research team was primarily one of data gathering and analyй sisк The data gathering techniques that were used included direct observationи interй views with the facilitator and his staffи interviews with meeting participantsи analysis of meeting reports and computer filesи and a questionnaire that was administered to participants at the end of their meetingк эll meetings were conducted in an electronic meeting facility at the University of эucklandк This facilityи called the Decision Support яentre дDSяеи consists of a large room containing ом computers set out on an elongated tableк In additionи the DSя contains a set of four largeи moveable whiteboards for more traditional methods of recording the group’s activitiesк The purpose of the computer facilities is to run Venй tana яorporation’s GroupSystemsи a textйbased electronic meeting support system дShe eld в Gallupeи нххрч Fjermestad в Hiltzи оммнч эckermann et al., оммсек Groupй Systems supports processes that include the anonymous and simultaneous individual generation of ideas and the prioritization and brief discussion of key findings дVan de Ven в Delbecqи нхунек GroupSystems also supports the anonymous and simultaneй ous individual allocation of budget amounts and the amalgamation and analysis of a group budget дFigure рек In the following three sections the facilitation cases are reviewedк пмо | She eld Figure 4 Electronic meeting technology. 4. FACILITATING SCIENCE FUNDING The clashing point of two subjects, two disciplines, two cultures of two galaxies, so far as that goes ought to produce creative chances. (Snow 1959: 16) There was such a huge diversity of people on the panel, from “pure research” oriented scientists to hard-headed business people, that significant political differences were inevitable. “(Electronic discourse) put the politics in a black box, to be dealt with later.” (Participant in a science funding meeting) ю ednarek домнне analyses the strategizing process in New Zealand’s science secй torк She found that the context was pluralistic—the objectives of social actors were divergent and power was diffusedк In this context institutions found leй gitimacy to be a powerful determinant of successк Legitimacy was found to comprise aspects which included the cognitiveи normativeлmoralлregulative and sociopoliticalк Organizations in New Zealand’s science sector were characterized by multiple embedй ded tensions and complex diffused power structuresк The author’s analysis demonй strated both the creative potential and challenges in strategizing for legitimacy amidst pluralismк The facilitation of aspects of science funding starts with the theoretical perspecй tive that objective factsи societal normsи and personal values are intertwinedк Objecй яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | пмп tivismи social constructionism and subjectivism are viewed as emergent perspectives in a broader and more critical discourseк The chief scientist of New Zealandи Sir Peter Gluckmanи emphasizes that science is no longer linearи authoritative and definitiveи provided only by a domainйspecific expertк Rather science is increasingly characterй ized by complexityи where multiple perspectives on knowledge are required to address the asymmetric payoffs associated with various policy options дGluckmanи омннек The chief executive of New Zealand’s Ministry of Researchи Science and Technoloй gy дMORSTе and staff spent four days in the Decision Support яentre at the University of эuckland дFigure ре with the panel appointed to allocate the Public Good Science Fundк The panel distributed USдомное аоюillion across all рм areas of New Zealand scienceк This is by far the largest contestable fund in New Zealand and funding deciй sions directly or indirectly impact most of the New Zealand economyк The technical дcognitiveе issues were complex—each of the twenty panel members had received approximately ниммм pages of briefing papersк э group memory device would clearly be required to support deliberationк The personal and interpersonal дsociopoliticalе issues were perhaps more di cult to ignore—many of the panel were scientistsи and nobody wanted reductions in areas dear to themк The decision process was designed to reduce politics about divergent objectives to a manageable levelи so that attention could be directed to the more technicalи taskйoriented aspects of the decision processк One member of the panel was the chief executive of the New Zealand Trade Deй velopment юoardи Rick яhristieк He reported that electronic discourse “tends to be fairer—more objective—it draws on a different range of skillsк юut there’s no question of not being heard—which can be a problem in meetings where there’s just verbal interaction…If you are seeking ideas on something not identified with the contributorи then it’s a great leveller…” эnother member of the panel was John юutcherи director of the Forest Research Institute’s Wood Technology Divisionк He reported that there was such a huge diversity of people on the panelи from “pure research” oriented scientists to hardйheaded business peopleи that significant political differences were inevitableи and that “дelectronic discourseе put the politics in a black boxи to be dealt with later” дShe eld нххпек Quantitative evidence on the e ciency and effectiveness of facilitating science funding was obtained via a survey instrument дэppendixек The instrument was adminй istered to all participants at the end of the final day of the electronicallyйsupported meetingsк Participants’ satisfaction with electronic discourse averaged скх on a у point scale дн щ low satisfactionи у щ high satisfactionек Participants were satisfied with the focus on personal and interpersonal knowledge and the management of relationship пмр | She eld Figure 5 Science funding. Participants’ satisfaction with electronic discourse averaged 5.9 (1 = Low satisfaction; 7 = High satisfaction). issues—absence of perceived conflict дткне and consensus for cooperative action дткме received the highest ratingsк Participants were also satisfied with the focus on techniй cal knowledge—ratings for participation дскхе and information exchange дскфе were also high дFigure сек S 5. FACILITATING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT he eld and Gallupe днххри нххсе describe an application of electronic meetй ing technology to a series of economic policyйmaking meetings sponsored by the New Zealand Trade Development юoardк The meetings were part of a naй tional study aiming to upgrade New Zealand’s competitive position in global marketsк They were held in эucklandи the main economic region of New Zealandи and were branded ‘эdvantage эuckland’к The aim of the research was to determine if electronic meeting technology could support an economic development process where particiй pants came from a variety of backgrounds дeкgки business competitorsи different ethnic groupsе and where meeting urgency and e ciency were of prime importanceк The national study was implemented with the assistance of Harvard’s Michael Porй ter and was framed by his book The яompetitive эdvantage of Nations дPorter нххмек It started with the application of Porter’s Diamond Model of industryйbased competiй tiveness to analyze the New Zealand economy and to develop recommendations for improvementк яase studies were completed on ом economic sectors which in total comprised фс percent of New Zealand’s exportsк The results were published in an inй fluential book entitled Upgrading New Zealand’s яompetitive эdvantage дяrocombeи Enright в Porterи нххнек It was intended to serve as a basis for positive action by inй dividualsи companiesи unionsи industry groupsи and governmentк It sought to explain why New Zealand neededц яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | пмс • э newи more comprehensive economic framework • э fundamental reйengineering of attitudesи strategies and institutions • Systematic upgrading of sources of competitive advantageк эt the time of the studyи howeverи the New Zealand economy was in recessionк Most businesses were dependent on the shrinking local market and as a consequence faced severe competition on price and high levels of business failureк Growth in export earnings became the primary goal of government economic policyк яooperative efй forts to upgrade competitive advantage were urgently required—yet were expected to be di cult to arrangeк The эdvantage эuckland meetings had four key objectivesц нк To involve a large number of business leaders with a variety of backgrounds in sector and enterprise planningч ок To assist those who were business competitors to move beyond price completion in local markets and seek opportunities for joint action to upgrade industry competitiveness in world marketsч пк To develop business opportunities for ethnic groups such as Maori who were suffering from high rates of unemploymentч рк To develop a collaborative action plan containing five initiatives that the meeting participants were committed to implementк The final design of the meetings reflected the assumptions of the research team and facilitatorц • That some participants would require ‘unfreezing’ from their initial viewpoints дLewinи нхруч Scheinи нххпеч • That anonymous brainstorming on carefully selected topics would build opportunities for collaborative action although brief oral discussions would be required for agreement on key ideasч • That building commitment to implement the action plans was primarily a social process that could best be supported in a rich communication medium дDaft and Lengelи нхфтч She eldи нххсaек There were five stages in each meetingк The purpose was to obtain working agreeй ment onц meeting objectivesи industry competitive advantages and disadvantagesи пмт | She eld actions to enhance competitive advantageи detailed action plansи and commitment to implementationк Earlier stages featured anonymous brainstorming within a strong organizing structureк In the last two stagesи structure was not imposed—it emerged largely from the direct faceйtoйface interaction of the participantsк In these stages the facilitator served primarily as coach and the electronic support served primarily as a memory aidк The design and evaluation of meeting discourse reflected elements of the task дPorter’s Diamond Modelе and four recommendations for ‘unfreezing’ дLewinи нхруец нк Participants feel psychologically safeч ок Participants step outside existing cultural normsч пк Participants дespecially the leadersе learn something newч рк э formal change process is implementedк э series of но meetings were attended by осм business leaders with a variety of backgrounds дShe eld в Gallupeи нххрек The primary result for each participant from their meeting was a смй to фмйpage bound transcriptк Quantitative evidence about meeting effectiveness and participant satisfaction was obtained via a survey instruй ment administered at the end of each meetingк The results of the questionnaire дэpй pendixе indicated that participants felt that the meetings were both very effective and e cientк эnswers to questionnaire item н indicated that participants felt that if the meetings were held using conventional meeting support each would have taken three times as longк эverage effectiveness дmeasured via the average of items пbйоре was ткн днщLow satisfactionч ущHigh satisfactionек Participants felt that the way the session was run by the facilitator was excellent дткпе and the technology was very easy and fun to use дткпек Participants’ satisfaction with electronic discourse was measured via four meaй sures that are numbered so as to match the four recommendations for unfreezingц нк эbsence of perceived conflictч ок Participationч пк Information exchangeч рк яonsensus for cooperative actionк эs demonstrated in Figure ти these measures of the meeting process are concepй tually related to procedure дeither divergent or convergentе and focus дeither relationй яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | пму ship or taskек For the но эdvantage эuckland meetingsи the average of these four measures was ткн дFigure те днщLow satisfactionч ущHigh satisfactionек The followйup study two years after the meetings revealed that the success of the action plans varied considerablyк Some were discontinued within monthsк Others such as the Marine Exporters Group дMarexе remain in existence and have become central to their industriesк The most successful action plans were those in industries where previous meetings had been marked by dysfunctional conflictк Individuals in these meetings collectively possessed resources whichи when shared and focused in the absence of perceived conflictи were su cient to support successful initiativesк Subй sequently a further сф meetings were held in эuckland that were attended by apй proximately ниммм business leadersк The эdvantage эuckland meetings led directly to the establishment of a group support facility at Victoria University in the capital city of Wellingtonк The Wellington facility has supported many campaignsи most of which are sponsored by national governmentи some with the goal of upgrading New Zealand’s competitive position in global marketsк 6. FACILITATING REGIONAL PLANNING э 6.1 Introduction t the time of this research studyи the governance of the эuckland region was characterized by divergent objectives дpoliticsе and diffuse power structures дdecentralised governanceе дHealey нххуек Planners from seven territorial auй thorities met on occasion with the planning team from the regional council to develop comprehensive urban growth plansк They negotiated shared meaning about facts дatй Figure 6 Economic development. Participants’ satisfaction with electronic discourse averaged 6.1 (1=Low satisfaction; 7=High satisfaction). пмф | She eld tributes of эucklandеи norms дmutual expectationsеи and personal commitments дto one’s own visions—and how they should be fundedек яomprehensive scenarios for rival strategies were iteratively developed and evaluated throughout lengthy planning cyclesк The process was complex and politicsи confusionи and conflict were accepted as the normк Political differences in the эuckland region had been exacerbated by a combinaй tion of limited resources and population growth from internal and external migrationк The politics around transportation were particularly di cultк Trip times were increasй ing and transportation costsи which included lost productivityи were increasingк While transportation modelling had been extensively usedи issues of governanceи fundingи and collaborative planning remainedк In the absence of a robust and responsive govй ernance structureи deliberations about managing population growth were marked by political differences дRoyal яommission on эuckland Governanceи оммуч New Zealand яouncil for Infrastructure Developmentи оммфек яonfusion arose from the limited role of a single decision maker and the complexй ity of the substantive factual issuesк For exampleи multiple organizations were involved in transportation governance—their roles were specialised and included controlи participationи planningи fundingи and operationлmanagementк While each organizaй tion managed part of the transport systemи none was responsible for the system as a wholeк Regionйwide or comprehensive urban planning necessitated a critical evaluaй tion of conflicting claims about intertwined criteria related to transportationи housingи workplacesи amenitiesи etcи by individuals primarily situated within organizations with divergent objectivesк To a greater or lesser extentи all social actors suffered from conй fusionк яonflict arose from the complexity of the power relationships among decision makersк Local Government legislation conferred powers on the regional council to plan for the region ‘in consultation with’ territorial authoritiesк Each authority mainй tained a planning o ce responsible to its own councilк Each was empowered to serve its own constituency and expected the comprehensive urban plan to serve its own inй terestк To a greater or lesser extentи all social actors were embroiled in power conflictsк In Table о overall success required participants to develop and integrate perspecй tives from generic roles that яhurchman terms system designer дmore technicalлtask orientedеи decision maker дmore interpersonalлconsensus orientedе and client дmore subjectiveлvalue orientedек In the regional planning meetingи each participant was priй marily a designer of an urban area for which the elected council was the decision makerи and those who lived in the area were clients дяhurchmanи нхунц оммек яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | пмх The current research explores the practical value of electronic discourse in regionй al governance and comprehensive urban planning дTables н and ои Figure оек юecause of the complexity of the issuesи and the importance of power relationsи and the emerй gent nature of their interactionsи and the historical context a nonйpositivist method of inquiry was adoptedк The aim was to describe the general nature of the phenomena observed and to interpret actionsи eventsи and consequencesк The evolution of quality measures дvalidity claimsе during the preйmeetingи meetingи and postйmeeting phases of decision making was observedк Data was gathered beforeи duringи and after an electronicallyйsupported meetingк The purpose of the facilitated electronicallyйsupported meeting was the strateй gic evaluation of a comprehensive пмйyear plan for the эuckland regionк This planи known as the эuckland Strategic Planning Modelи had been constructed over a sevenй year periodк The plan described two strategies for an increase in population from нm to нксmк яonsolidation drove strategy oneк More controlsи particularly environmental controlsи would be imposed to limit the spread of population into rural areasк The result would be higher population density and increased use of passenger transporй tation дbusesи light railек Expansion drove strategy twoк Planning controls would be relaxedи allowing the spread of population into rural areasк The result would be lower population density and increased use of private transport дcarsи freewaysе дShe eldи оммхbек In summary regional planning in эucklandи New Zealand was subject to political differencesи confusionи and conflictк Regional planning was informed not by a search for a purely technical solution but by communication within a diffuse power structure about divergent objectivesк Interйorganizational planning meetings were the exercise of technical skills on behalf of constituencies with a history of conflictи confusionи and the exercise of powerк эn open dialogue across planning organizations was required to resolve contradictions among competing perspectivesк Facilitating such a dialogue presents conceptual and practical di culties that motivated the research reviewed belowк 6.2 Before the meeting The evidence gathered in the preйmeeting phase revealed that the нт participants in the electronically supported regional planning meeting were there to represent seven territorial authorities дfour cities and three districtsе and the эuckland Regional яouncil дэRяек Each was a professional planner responsible for advising hisлher own дelectedе councilк Each territorial authority constituted one part of the whole of the эuckland пнм | She eld regionк The issues associated with embedding ‘one part’ of an urban region in ‘the whole’ were complexк The chief planner for the эRя advised that most participants had been involved in prior consultations marked to some degree by politicsи confuй sionи and conflictк Participants recognized the di culties in achieving the goals of their respective councils and engaging in consultations about comprehensive regionйwide plans with planners from other councilsк Perceptions of costs and benefits varied with the allegiance of the participant and the history of his or her interactionsк эs the day of the focal electronicallyйsupported meeting approached it became apparent that considerable di culties were being experienced by эRя plannersи and that these were directly related to unresolved technicalи interpersonal and personal issuesк Technical perspectiveк Technical di culties were encountered in discovering an analytically sound method of combining knowledge from the acknowledged expertsк Urban planning is a pluralistic area that юanville в Landry днхфхе would describe as ‘lacking conceptual integration’к For exampleи tra c engineers focused on access and transportation and developed estimates of trip times under each strategyк юiologists studied coastal water quality and developed estimates of pollutants in parts per milй lionк Financial analysts focusing on economic values developed quantitative estimates of costsк Other planning consultants developed qualitative assessments of amenityи landscape values and housing choiceк Scientific methods were applied by the experts who developed subйmodels in subйdisciplines embedded within urban planningк Yet measures such as trip timesи pollutants and implementation costs wereи by themй selvesи conceptually unrelated and could not rigorously be comparedк яlaims to obй jective truth were diminished by the lack of an analytically sound method of combinй ing knowledge from different subйspecialtiesк Interpersonal perspectiveк The traditional urban planning tripleйbottomйline catй egories of economicи social and environmental concerns appeared to be interlinked in a way that made the separate evaluation of any one category or subcategory imposй sibleк It became clear that there were complexи dynamic and recursive д‘chicken and egg’е or selfйreferential дMüller et al., оммсе interdependencies among stakeholder’s beliefsи potentially right strategies and available objective factsк These emergent propй erties of regional planning could only be resolved by discourseк Personal perspectiveк The third set of problems was associated with personal commitmentsк Planners from one major territorial authority дa city of пммиммме were reluctant to attend because they were committed to a city plan based on presupposiй tions that differed from those of the regional councilк яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | пнн Summaryк эnalysis from the perspective of pluralism and communicative action дTable ои Figure ое provides qualitative evidence suggesting that the observed levels of guarantors дobjective truthи rightness and sincerityе immediately before the focal electronicallyйsupported meeting were lowк 6.3 During the meeting To evaluate rival strategies for the эuckland region the facilitator of the focal elecй tronicallyйsupported meeting chose to apply the five facilitation principles дTable ое and framework дFigure оек The first part of the meeting focused on the expression of concerns and issues motivating each stakeholderк The last part of the meeting focused on expressions of degrees of commitment to actionи for and againstи rival strategiesк More than half of the agenda items were devoted to electronicallyйsupported disй course about a decision matrixк Two strategies дcolumnsе were evaluated against five classes of criteria дrowsе—costи amenity and landscapeи housing choiceи access and transportationи and water qualityк Each row of the decision matrix was the subject of a смйminute session that included the anonymous individual generation of ideas and the prioritization and brief discussion of key findings дShe eldи оммрек This смйminute session included the private ordering by each participant of his or her preference for each strategy дDias в яlimacoи оммсек In the following subsections evidence is preй sented about participant satisfaction with electronic discourse and claims to emergent personalи interpersonal and technical knowledgeк Participant satisfaction with electronic discourseк Participants’ satisfaction with electronic discourse averaged ткм on a у point scale дн щ low satisfactionи у щ high satisfactionе дFigure уек Participants дsome of who were initially unwilling to attend the meetingе were particularly satisfied with participation дткое and the management of relationship issues й absence of perceived conflict дткне and consensus for cooperative action дткне also received high ratingsк The relatively lower rating for information exй change дсксе reflects most participants’ familiarity with the issuesк Unstructured comй ments were collected anonymously from participants by means of the GroupSystems softwareк The responses were overwhelmingly positiveк Participants remarked that the meeting generated intense participationи goodwill and momentumк Many people exй pressed surprise that the technology existed and stated that the meeting outcomes would not have been possible without electronic supportк Evaluation of claims to objective truthк Through the use of the electronic meetings technology participants produced ten pages of text on each of the five criteria дShefй fieldи оммрек This text or ‘frozen discourse’ includes key issues that were prioritized пно | She eld Figure 7 Regional planning. Participants’ satisfaction with electronic discourse averaged 6.0 (1 = Low satisfaction; 7 = High satisfaction). via a weighted voting procedure дVan de Ven в Delbecqи нхунек Participants cast a total of орм votes for each criterionк The key issues were expressed in a manner that was exploratory rather than evaluativeк For exampleи the issue of the extent to which population density must increase to make public transportation su ciently viable is central to the choice between strategy one дconsolidationе and strategy two дexpanй sionек Yet at the end of a sevenйyear planning exercise that included extensive tra c modelingи the issue was raised as a question rather than as the evaluation of a factual proposition supported by expert analysisк This supports the conclusion that under the norms of a cognitiveи objectivating attitude towards the factsи the ‘truth’ was that neiй ther strategy was superiorк Evaluation of claims to rightnessк эt the end of the discourse on a criterionи each participant privately recorded how well each strategy performed against the five criй teria in Table нк This enabled participants to interpret technical findings from the perй spective of their own organization’s norms and valuesк Each of the нт participants anonymously rated the two strategies on each of the с criterionк The aggregated ratй ings for each strategy and criterion were made accessible to each participantк On one criterion дhousing choiceеи strategy one and strategy two were rated equallyк On the remaining four criteria дcostи amenity and landscapeи access and transportationи and water qualityе strategy one performed distinctly better than strategy twoк The strateй gies and criteria had been developed through a consultative process over a sevenй year periodк This supports the conclusion that under the norms of established legitiй mate interйpersonal relationshipsи strategy one is more ‘right’ than strategy twoк Evaluation of claims to sincerityк Electronic meeting technology supported sharing personal visions prompted by the question ‘What is it like to live in эuckland under яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | пнп strategies н and оы’ From the perspective of яhurchman’s inquiring systemи particiй pants were being asked to drop their usual role of designer and adopt the role of client дяhurchmanи нхунц оммек The goal was disclosure of speaker’s subjectivityи unй constrained by the дtechnicalе structure of the model and unrestrained by the interй personal contextк The strategy was to get each individual toц дiе write a personalized account of what it would be like to live in эuckland пм years hence under each of strategies н and оч дiiе read the accounts of others to identify the most valuable visionsк The procedure was a тмйminute silent envisioning exercise in which each account was identified only by a codeк эnonymity was almost completeк The most valued visions of what it would be like to live in эuckland пм years hence showed intense personal support for strategy oneи and a willingness to work against strategy twoк This supports the conclusion that under the norms of disclosure of speakers’ subjectivityи нр of the нт participants wouldи in all sincerityи only have supported strategy oneк Summaryк The positive results obtained from the meeting are in strong contrast to the confusion and conflict that existed at the end of the preйmeeting phaseк While some participants had been reluctant to attend the focal meetingи and expressed negй ative views at the beginning of the meetingи all participants provided positive evaluй ations at the end of the meetingк The functionality of the electronic meeting technolй ogy was supportive of an overall positive resultк Participation by all participants was intenseк юy the end of the meetingи electronic discourse produced фм pages of textк Intense participation in electronic discourse resulted in extensive documentation of claims to objective truthи rightnessи and sincerityк The data gathered during the focal meeting support the claim that electronic discourse had successfully reduced conй flict and confusionк It is not clearи howeverи that the decision outcomes integrated the technicalи interйpersonalи and personal perspectives into a consensus model that proй vided a rationale for actionк 6.4 After the meeting We have yet to consider the degree of coherence among the three perspectivesк Parй ticipants found no difference between the strategies on the basis of technical knowlй edgeк Moderate claims in favour of strategy one were made based on interpersonal knowledgeк Strong claims in favour of strategy one were made based on personal knowledgeк The degree of coherence among the decision outcomes at different levels was poorк There was a major discrepancy in preferences at various stages of the decision processк The фмйpage report generated by electronic meeting technology дfrom which пнр | She eld the findings were extractedе was circulated to all participants immediately after the meetingк The introductory section of the report highlighted the fact that the particiй pants were strongly supportive of a strategy that lacked factual supportк The report became subject to intense scrutinyк Regional planners met repeatedly among themй selves about the report and consulted other meeting participantsк Support grew for the interpretation that the strategic options were not extreme enoughк In Hegelian termsи the dialectical logic дsynthesisе of this interpretation was initially lost on the regional planners because they were so firmly wedded to their decision framework дthesisе that they experienced profound di culty in recognizing that the framework was flawed дantithesisек эn abbreviated planning round was subsequently undertaken with more extreme versions of strategies one and two дbased on a нмм б increase in populationек Support that integrated the technicalи interpersonal and personal levels of the facilitation framework was then found for strategy oneк 6.5 Summary of findings The results showed that the preйmeeting phase was fraught with technicalи interperй sonal and personal problemsк юoth the observations during the meeting and the satisй faction reported by participants дFigure уе demonstrated that the facilitated electronй icallyйsupported meeting had increased participant’s trust and understandingк During the meeting participants found no difference between the strategies on the basis of technical knowledgeи a moderate preference for scenario one on the basis of interperй sonal knowledgeи and a strong preference for scenario one on the basis of personal knowledgeк Reflection after the meeting produced sudden insights that dissolved the perceived lack of coherenceк The final analysis integrated technicalи interйpersonalи and personal perspectives into a consensus model that provided a rationale for actionк Empirical evidence was therefore found for the importance of the facilitation frameй work дFigure ое and all five principles дTable оек 7. DISCUSSION The meeting made it easy to lay your thoughts out without putting your neck on the line. дParticipant in an economic development meetingе T he current research described local solutions implemented as part of New Zeaй land response to impacts of globalizationк Interйorganizational meetings were conducted in the domains of science fundingи economic development and reй gional planningк The importance of pluralism and electronic discourse to the successй яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | пнс ful facilitation of these meetings was evaluated via quantitative and qualitative meaй suresк Evidence from the quantitative measures indicated that participants found the meetings very e cient and effective and were very satisfied with electronic discourseк эverages across all three cases are reported in Figure фк Evidence from the qualitative measures indicated that the facilitation principles дTable ое and framework дFigure ое were closely associated with overall successк These findings are briefly discussedк The strategies implemented were developed in interйorganizational meetings atй tended by a large number of stakeholders with divergent objectivesк юecause each participant was very busy meeting the demands of their own organization it was imй perative that the interйorganizational meetings were e cient and effectiveк In tradiй tional interйorganizational meetingsи even when participants desire to work in a relaй tively democratic wayи the limited airtime creates conflictк In a one hour meeting of нс peopleи each must compete to get more than four minutes of airtimeк Quite literally it is the sender not the message that is visibleк яritical analysis invites interpersonal conflictк юut in an electronic meeting all participants can input and read information at the same time дShe eldи нххсbек юecause everyone can ‘talk’ at once and still be heard the work was completed two to three times fasterк юecause it was di cult to identify who has proposed a particular ideaи rank and personality differences among participants were less pronouncedк эdй vocacyи coalitions and infighting were less necessaryк эccording to participantsи faciliй tated electronicallyйsupported meetings provided an e cient and effective method of generating informed consensus for action дFigure фек The quantitative evidence indicated that participants were particularly satisfied with the focus on personal and interpersonal knowledge and the management of reй Figure 8 All three cases. Participants’ satisfaction with electronic discourse averaged 6.0 (1 = Low satisfaction; 7 = High satisfaction). пнт | She eld lationship issues—across all three cases absence of perceived conflict дткое and conй sensus for cooperative action дткне received the highest ratingsк Participants were also satisfied with the focus on technical knowledge—ratings for participation дткме and information exchange дскуе were also highк This suggests that the anonymity providй ed by electronic meeting technology was perceived as more important than the raw power associated with the simultaneous use of keyboardsк This was particularly apparй ent in the economic development meetingsк In the но эdvantage эuckland economic development meetings the absence of perceived conflict дткре and consensus for cooperative action дткое received the highй est ratingsк The electronically supported meetings were held when the economy was in recessionк юecause the level of pain was high and some participants were business competitors the potential for conflict was highк In many industry sectors diminished disposable income and deregulation had led to oversupplyи competition on priceи heavy discountingи and persistent infightingк Participants indicated that the meeting created a dialogueи and the exchange of valuable information fostered openness and trustк Interviews conducted one to two years afterwards as part of a followйup study дShe eld в Gallupeи нххсе confirmed that the meetings had been a catalyst for inй dustry wide changeк Participants commented that the anonymous and simultaneous use of the keyboards aided creativity and allowed everybody’s comments to be treatй ed fairlyк Our ideas were stimulated, shared and focused. Domination by individuals whose solutions were not of great quality had often destroyed meetings in the past. Anonymity was essential to get rid of personality clashes. The (electronically-supported) meeting was memorable for the variety of participants, its quietness and structure—nobody dominated. It delivered an action plan that was solid enough to cope with the infighting. Before the meeting a lot of us didn’t believe in talking to the opposition. There’s a lot more talking together, pulling together now. The meeting was definitely the catalyst. Absolutely! Why? Because the computer medium allowed people to feel that their contributions were being treated fairly. The meeting made it easy to lay your thoughts out without putting your neck on the line. яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | пну Empirical support was found for the facilitation framework and all five principles дTable ои Figure оек This suggests thatи in facilitating local solutions in a global environй mentи the benefits of electronic discourse are threeйfoldц Technical perspectiveц Electronic discourse provided support for the development and documentation of validity claims about objective truthи rightness and sincerityи and the degree of coherence among themк Interpersonal perspectiveц Electronic discourse provided support for discourse that interweaves evidence дexperience and reflectionи decision and actionи theory and practiceи individual feeling and objective factе from multipleи intertwinedи conflicting yet mutually supportive evaluative framesк Personal perspectiveц Electronic discourse provided support for the ‘psychological safety’ and ‘trust’ needed for direct and unreserved expressions of multipleи conflictй ing individual perspectivesк In totalityи the empirical evidence enables the focus question ‘Does electronic discourse increase the success of local solutions in a global environmentы’ to be anй swered in the a rmativeк S 8. CONCLUSION everal lessons have been learnedк Firstlyи facilitating local solutions in a global environment was a pluralistic endeavour—the objectives of social actors were divergent and power was diffusedк Often the goal was a legitimate consensus among diverse stakeholders so that scarce resources could be combinedлleveraged for national advantageк Secondlyи the theoretical perspective of communicative acй tion was useful in separating out intertwined but quite different types of knowledgeк The standard of excellence in communicative action can be stated as followsц perй sonal commitment дvalidated by sincerityе to an interpersonal consensus дvalidated by rightnessе for technical excellence дvalidated by objective truthек Thirdlyи individual and institutional knowledge was inherently mediated and situatedи provisional and pragй maticи aspirational and contestedк In an environment of diffuse power relationshipsи interйorganizational meetings were essential in gaining legitimacyк Fourthlyи electronic meeting technology has a raw power that leads to e cient and effective interйorgaй nizational meetingsк Excellent performance was observed in the application of elecй tronic meeting technology in science fundingи economic developmentи and regional planning meetingsк Fifthlyи the findings reported in the current research suggested пнф | She eld that the facilitation principles and framework developed in this article may be routineй ly applied in various other domainsк Seen from a Hegelian perspectiveи the power of pluralism and communicative action lies not in achievement of enlightenmentи but in appreciation of the nature of three types of ignorance and the practical consequences of beliefк REFERENCES эckermannи Fки Francoи Lк эки Gallupeи юки and Parentи Mк оммск GSS for multiйorganizational collaborationц Reflections on process and contentи Group Decision and Negotiation нрдрец пму–ппнк юanvilleи як в Landryи Mк нхфхк яan the field of MIS be disciplinedы яommunications of the эяM поднец рф–тмк юednarekи Rк Sк омннк Strategizing for legitimacy in pluralistic contextsц New Zealand’s Science Sectorи unpublished PhDи Victoria University Wellingtonк яheshireи Pк омнок яitiesц the need to understand better before we mess with themк Presentation held at New Zealand Government—эuckland Policy O ce on нр December омнок яhurchmanи якWк нхунк The Design of Inquiring Systemsк New Yorkц юasic юooksк яrocombeи Gк Tки Enrightи Mк Jки and Porterи Mк Eк нххнк Upgrading New Zealand’s яompetitive эdvantageк эucklandц Oxford University Pressк Daftи Rк Lки and Lengelи Rк Hк нхфтк Organizational information requirementsи media richness and structural designк Management Science подсец сср–сунк Denisи Jки Langleyи эки and Rouleauи Lк оммук Strategizing in pluralistic contextsц rethinking theoretical framesк Human Relations тмднец нух–онск Diasи Lки в яlimacoи Jк оммск Dealing with imprecise information in group multicriteria decisionsц э methodology and a GDSS architectureк European Journal of Operational Research нтмдоец охн–пмук Fjermestadи Jки and Hiltzи Sк Rк оммнк Group Support Systemsц э descriptive evaluation of case and field studiesк Journal of Management Information Systems нудпец ннс–нсхк Francoи Lк эк оммфк Facilitating collaboration with problem structuring methodsц э case study of an interйorganizational construction partnershipк Group Decision and Negotiation нудрец оту–офтк Gluckmanи Pк омннк Towards better use of evidence in policy formationц a discussion paperи O ce of the Prime minister’s Science эdvisory яommitteeк URLц httpцллwwwкpmcsaкorgк nzл publicationsл Habermasи Jк нхфрк The Theory of яommunicative эction Volume нц Reason and the Rationalization of Societyк юostonц юeacon Pressк Healeyи Pк нххук яollaborative Planningц Shaping Places in Fragmented Societiesк New Yorkц Palgraveк яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | пнх Jarzabkowskiи Pки and Fentonи Eк оммтк Strategizing and organizing in pluralistic contextsк Long Range Planning пхц тпн–трфк Kolfschotenи Gк Lки Den Hengstйюruggelingи Mки and De Vreedeи Gк Jк оммук Issues in the design of facilitated collaboration processesк Group Decision and Negotiation нтдрец пру–птнк Krugmanи Pк нххук The эge Of Diminished Expectationsк Third Editionи юostonц The MIT Pressк Lehrerи Jк оммхк The Decisive Momentц How the юrain Makes Up Its Mindк Melbourneц The Text Publishing яompanyк Lewinи Kк нхрук Frontiers of group dynamicsц conceptи method and reality in social scienceк Human Relations ндннец с–рнк Lewisи Fк Lки юajwaи Dк Sки Pervanи Gки Kingи Vк Lк Kки and Munkvoldи юк Eк оммук э crossйregional exploration of barriers to the adoption and use of electronic meeting systemsк Group Decision and Negotiation нтдрец пфн–пхфк Mcяannи Pк оммхк Economic Geographyи Globalizationи and New Zealand’s Productivity Paradoxк New Zealand Economic Papers рпдпец оух–пнрк Midgleyи Gки and Pinzo´и Lк эк омннк юoundary critique and its implications for conflict preventionк Journal of the Operational Research Society тоц нсрп–нссрк Milletи Iки and Goganи Jк оммтк э dialectical framework for problem structuring and information technologyк Journal of the Operational Research Society суц рпр–ррок Mitroffи Iк Iки and Linstoneи Hк эк нххпк The Unbounded Mindц юreaking the яhains of Traditional юusiness Thinkingи New Yorkц Oxford University Pressк Mortonи эки эckermannи Fк and юeltonи Vк оммпк Technology driven and model driven approaches to group decision supportц focusи research philosophy and key conceptsи European Journal of Information Systemsи нодоеи ннмйнотк Müllerи Dк юки Tjallingiiи Sк Pки and яantorи Kк Jк оммск э transdisciplinary learning approach to foster convergence of designи science and deliberation in urban and regional planningк Systems Research and юehavioral Science оодпец нхп–омхк New Zealand яouncil for Infrastructure Development оммфк Strengthening эuckland Governanceи a submission to the Royal яommission on эuckland Governanceк New Zealand Governmentк оммхк International яonnections and Productivityц Making Globalization Work for New Zealandк New Zealand Treasury Productivity Paper мхлмнк Porterи Mк Eк нххмк The яompetitive эdvantage of Nationsк New Yorkц The Free Pressк Royal яommission on эuckland Governance оммук Downloaded нм December омно from httpцллwwwкroyalcommissionкgovtкnz Scheinи Eк Hк нххпк How can organizations learn fasterы the challenge of entering the green roomк Sloan Management Reviewи Winter нххпц фс–хпк Schultzeи Uки and Leidnerи Dк Eк оммок Studying knowledge management in information systems researchц Discourses and theoretical assumptionsк MIS Quarterly отдпец онп–орок Shakunи Mк Fк оммпк Right problem solvingц doing the right thing rightк Group Decision and Negotiation нодтец ртп–рутк пом | She eld Shawи Dки эckermannи Fки and Edenк як оммпк эpproaches to sharing knowledge in group problem structuringк Journal of the Operational Research Society срдхец хпт–хрфк She eldи Jк нххпк Silent decision makingк The University of эuckland эlumni News пднец нт–нук She eldи Jк нххсaк The effect of communication medium on negotiation performanceк Group Decision and Negotiation рдоец нсх–нухк She eldи Jк нххсbк Using electronic meeting technologiesк People and Performance пдпец нф–онк She eldи Jк оммрк The design of GSSйenabled interventionsц a Habermasian Perspectiveк Group Decision and Negotiation нпдсец рнс–рптк She eldи Jк оммск Systemic knowledge and the Vйmodelк International Journal of юusiness Information Systems нднлоец фп–нмнк She eldи Jк оммфaк Does health care for systemic developmentы Systems Research and юehavioral Science осдоец офп–охмк She eldи Jк оммфbк Inquiry in health knowledge managementк Journal of Knowledge Management нодрец нтм–нуок She eldи Jк оммхaк Systemic Developmentц Local Solutions in a Global Environmentи Goodyearи эrizonaц ISяE Publishingк оммхbк Towards a design theory for collaborative technologiesц Habermasian analysis of comprehensive urban planningи Proceedings of the роnd эnnual Hawaii International яonference on System Sciencesи сth—фth Januaryк IEEE яomputer Society Pressк She eldи Jк омнок My Decisive Momentк эucklandц Pagination Publishersк She eldи Jки and Gallupeи юк нххрк Using electronic meeting technology to support economic policy development in New Zealandц short term resultsк Journal of Management Information Systemsк Winter нххп–хрк Volк нмк No пц ху–ннтк She eldи Jки and Gallupeи юк нххск Using group support systems to improve the New Zealand economyи part IIц followйup resultsк Journal of Management Information Systems нндпец нпс–нспк She eldи Jки and Guoи Zк оммуaк яritical heuristicsц a contribution to addressing the vexed question of soйcalled knowledge managementк Systems Research and юehavioral Science ордтец тнп–тотк She eldи Jки and Guoи Zк оммуbк Ethical inquiry in knowledge managementк International Journal of эpplied Systemic Studies нднец тф–фнк Snowи як Pк нхсхк The Two яulturesк Londonц яambridge University Pressк Snowdenи Dк Jки and юooneи Mк оммук ‘э leader’s framework for decision making’к Harvard юusiness Reviewи November оммуи ppк тх–утк Van de Venи эк Hки and Delbecqи эк Lк нхунк The effectiveness of Nominalи Delphiи and interacting group decision making processesк эcademy of Management Journal нуц тмс–тонк Weickи Karl Eк нхухк The social psychology of organizingк New Yorkц Random Houseк яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | пон APPENDIX Session Evaluation Questionnaire* Decision Support яentre session for _____________ дgroupе on __________ дdateе жE ciency дQнйоеи effectiveness дQпaйсеи facilitator дQтйуеи technology дQфйннеи reй duced barriers to communication дQнойнреи participation дQнсйнуеи information exй change дQнфйонеи meeting outcomes дQоойоре Directionsц Your opinions are important to usЭ Please take the time to answer the questions on the front of this sheetк We will use your responses to this questionnaire to upgrade future workshops in the Decision Support яentreк Thank youЭ Jim Shefй fieldи Research Directorи Decision Support яentreк нк You spent _____ hours in the Decision Support яentre to achieve this resultк How many hours would you expect to spend to achieve the same result by conventional meansы _____ hours ок Using conventional means the process would most likely have spread over ______ days пaк In the next three months I expect to useлstudy the report of this session for a total of ______hours For questions пb through ор indicate your level of agreement with the statement usй ing the following schemeц (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Strongly Disagree Mostly Disagree Somewhat Disagree Neutral Somewhat Agree Mostly Agree Strongly Agree эll questions are answered by circling a numberк There are no right or wrong anй swersк пbк Overallи I thought the workshop was excellentц н о п р с т у рк I enjoyed being a member of this groupц н о п р с т у ск The report containing all contributions to this session will be highly valuableц н о п р с т у тк The way the session was run by the facilitator was excellentц н о п р с т у поо | She eld ук The facilitator’s use of the whiteboards was highly effectiveц н о п р с т у фк The computer facilities were easy to useц н о п р с т у хк The computer facilities were highly effectiveц н о п р с т у нмк Typing enabled me to focus and refine my ideas before going publicц н о п р с т у ннк The Decision Support яentre technology is fun to useц н о п р с т у нок Internal politics were largely absent from today’s meetingц н о п р с т у нпк The rank of participants did not inhibit the free flow of ideasц н о п р с т у нрк The personality of participants did not inhibit the free flow of ideasц н о п р с т у нск I felt actively involved throughout the sessionц н о п р с т у нтк эll group members participated equallyц н о п р с т у нук Participantsи both as individuals and as a groupи were creativeц н о п р с т у нфк I was willing to give valuable information to others in the groupц н о п р с т у нхк I was able to give valuable information to others in the groupц н о п р с т у омк I received valuable ideas from others on issues of significance to meц н о п р с т у онк I received support from others on issues of significance to meц н о п р с т у оок The issues surfaced during the brainstorming are importantц н о п р с т у ооbк I strongly recommend that this and similar groups use the Decision Support яentre for future planning tasks н о п р с т у опк The summary of key issues developed on the whiteboards are importantц н о п р с т у орк Participantsи both as individuals and as a groupи were productiveц н о п р с т у Quotable commentк Please quote me on the following commentц Please use the back of the sheet for further commentsк яhapter нрц Local Solutions in a Global Environment | поп Chapter 15 GLOBAL BIFURCATION: THE DECISION WINDOW Ervin Laszlo It has been said that our generation is the first in history that can decide whether it is the last in history. We need to add that our generation is also the first in history that can decide whether it will be the first generation of a new phase in history. We have reached a watershed in our social and cultural evolution. The sciences of systems tell us that when complex open systems, such as living organisms, and also ecologies and societies of organisms, approach a condition of critical instability, they face a moment of truth: they either transform, or break down. Keywords: complex systemsи scenarioи bifurcationи global trendsк яhapter нсц Global юifurcationц The Decision Window | пос THE BAU (BUSINESS AS USUAL) SCENARIO Humankind is approaching a critical instability—a global bifurcationк The following scenarios illustrate the nature of the choice at this critical pointк • There is no real change in the world in the way business is conductedи resources are exploited and energy is producedк This leadsи on the one handи to a worsening global economic crisisи andи on the other—to major climate change due to the accelerated warming of the Earth’s atmosphereк • In some regions global warming produces droughtи in others devastating stormsи and in many areas it leads to harvest failuresк In coastal areas vast tracts of productive land are floodedи together with citiesи towns and villagesк Hundreds of millions are homeless and face starvationк • Massive waves of destitute migrants flow from coastal regions and areas a icted with lack of food and waterи above all in эfricaи эsiaи and Latin эmericaи toward inland regions where the basic resources of life are more assuredк The migrants overload the human and natural resources of the receiving countries and create conflict with the local populationsк International relief efforts provide emergency supplies for thousandsи but are helpless when confronted with millionsк • In futile attempts to stem the tidal wave of destitute people India builds up its wall along the border with юangladeshи the UкSк along the Mexican borderи and both Italy and Spain build walls to protect their northern regions from their overrun southern regionsк • The world’s population fragments into states and populations intent on protecting themselvesи and masses of desperate people facing imminent famine and diseaseк The conflicts create unsustainable stresses and strains in the structure of international relationsк Social and economic integration groups and political alliances break apartк Relations break down between the UкSк and its southern neighborsи the European Union and the Mediterranean countriesи and India and яhina and the hardйhit Southeast эsian statesк • Global military spending rises exponentially as governments attempt to protect their territories and reestablish a level of orderк Strongйarm régimes come to power in the traditional hotйspots and local foodй and waterйwars erupt between states and populations pressed to the edge of physical survivalк • Terrorist groupsи nuclear proliferatorsи narcoйtra ckersи and organized crime syndicates form alliances with unscrupulous entrepreneurs to sell armsи drugsи and essential goods at exorbitant pricesк Governments target the terrorists and attack пот | Laszlo the countries suspected of harboring themи but more terrorists take the place of those that are rounded up and killed or imprisonedк • Hawks and armaments lobbies press for the use of powerful weapons to defend the territories and interests of the betterйoff statesк Regional wars fought initially with conventional arms escalate into wars conducted with weapons of mass destructionк • The world’s interdependent and critically destabilized economicи financial and political system collapsesк The environmentи its productive processes and vital heat balance impairedи is no longer capable of providing food and water for more than a fraction of the surviving populationsк яhaos and violence engulfs peoples and countries both rich and poorк Hereи howeverи is another scenarioк The TT (Timely Transformation) Scenario • The experience of terrorism and warи together with rising poverty and the threats posed by a changing climateи trigger a widespread recognition that the time to change has comeк In country after countryи an initially small but soon rapidly growing nucleus of people pull together to confront the dangers of the global crisis and seize the opportunity it offers for changeк • The rise of popular movements for sustainability and peace leads to the election of political leaders who support economic cooperation and social solidarity projectsк Forwardйlooking states monitor the dangerous trends and provide financing for the urgently needed economicи ecologicalи and humanitarian initiativesк • Nonйgovernmental organizations link up to undertake projects to revitalize regions ravaged by environmental degradationк Emergency funds are provided for countries and regions a icted by droughtи violent stormsи coastal floodingи and failures of the harvestк • Military budgets are reduced and in some states eliminatedи and the resulting ‘peaceйdividends’ are assigned to increase the production of staple foodsи safe waterи basic supplies of energyи and essential sanitation and health services for the needy disadvantaged populationsк • яountry after country shifts from fossilйfuel based energyйproduction to alternative fuelsи reducing the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and slowing the process of global warmingк э globally networked renewable energy system comes on lineи contributing to food productionи providing energy for desalinizing яhapter нсц Global юifurcationц The Decision Window | поу and filtering seaйwaterи and helping to lift marginalized populations from the vicious cycles of povertyк • Leading business companies join the classical pursuit of profit and growth with the quest for social and ecological responsibilityк On the initiative of enlightened managers a voluntarily selfйregulating social market economy is put in placeи and the newly elected forwardйlooking political leaders give it full supportк • эs the new energy system and the selfйregulating social market economy begins to functionи access to economic activity and technical and financial resources becomes available to all countries and economiesк Frustrationи resentmentи animosity and distrust give way to a spirit of cooperationи liberating the spirit and enhancing the creativity of a new generation of locally active and globally thinking peopleк Humanity is on the way to a peaceful and sustainableи diverse yet cooperative planetйwide civilizationк The choice between these scenarios is not yet madeк эs of todayи we are moving along the path of the юэU scenarioи but more and more people are waking up and searching for ways to move to a scenario of timely transformationк The question isи how much time is there for this shiftы The window of time is finiteц when conditions in a complex open system reach a critical point the system becomes chaoticи and it either transformsи or breaks downк The longer the transformation is delayedи the more di cult it becomes to carry it outк To define the feasible decisionйwindow we must take into account both the time by which individual trends reach a critical phaseи and crossйimpacts and feedbacks among the trendsк нк The unfolding of individual trendsк Time estimates of when individual lifeй threatening trends would reach points of criticality have been reduced from the end of the century to midйcenturyи and for some trends to the next ten to twenty yearsк ] For exampleи the sea level has been rising one and a half times faster than predictй ed in the IPяя’s Third эssessment Report published in оммнк Forecasts published at the end of оммф project global seaйlevel rise that is more than double the мксх meter rise forecast even by the Fourth эssessment Reportк яarbon dioxide emissions and global warming have likewise outpaced expectaй tionsк The rate of increase of яOо emissions rose from нкн percent between нххм and поф | Laszlo нххх to over п percent between оммм and оммрк Since оммм the growthйrate of emisй sion has been greater than in any of the scenarios used by the IPяя in both the Third and Fourth эssessment Reportsк The warming of the atmosphere progressed faster than expected as wellк In the нххмs forecasts spoke of an overall warming of maximum п degrees яelsius by the end of the centuryк Then the timeйhorizon for this level of increase was reduced to the middle of the centuryи and presently some experts predict that it could occur within a decadeк эt the same timeи the prediction for the maximum level of global warming rose from п to т degreesк The difference is not negligibleк э three degree warming would cause serious disruption in human life and economic activityи while a six degree warming would make most of the planet unsuitable for food production and largeй scale human habitationк ок Feedbacks and crossйimpactsк Most predictions of points of criticality take into consideration only one trend—the global warming and attendant climate changeч water quality and availabilityч food production and selfйrelianceч urban viabilityи povertyи and population pressureч air quality and minimal health standardsи or othersк They fail to consider the possibility that a criticality in one trend could accelerate the unfolding of other trends toward a point of criticalityк There are multiple feedbacks and crossйimpacts among the relevant trendsи both in regard to the biosphere and conditions in the human worldк In the biosphereи all the trends that affect human life and wellйbeing also impact on the cycles that maintain the planet’s ecology within a humanly viable rangeк This is the case in regard to the global water and the global carbon cycleц the alteration of these cycles by any one trend affects the way the other trends unfoldк For exampleи an increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere leads to global warming and that afй fects rainfall and the growth of forestsк Thatи in turnи reduces the biosphere’s carbon absorption capacityк Feedbacks are also conveyed by air and ocean currentsк Warmer water in the oceans triggers hurricanes and other violent storms alters the course of major ocean currentsи such as the Gulf and the Humboldк эnd that triggers further changes in the climateк Feedbacks also obtain between ecological and societal trendsк For exampleц The warming of the atmosphere produces prolonged drought in some areas and coastal flooding in othersк Starving and homeless masses are impelled to migrate from the highly impacted areas to less hardйhit regions creating critical conditions in those reй яhapter нсц Global юifurcationц The Decision Window | пох gions as wellк э drop in the quality of the air in urban and industrial megacomplexes below the minimum required for health creates a breakdown in public healthи with epidemics spreading to vast areasк э breakdown of the financial system would impact not only on banks and stock marketsи but would interfere with industrial output and trade the world overи creating critical conditions first of all for the poorest countries and economiesк яrossйimpacts among accelerating global trends reduces the feasible decisionй windowк The precise time for effecting meaningful change is not predictable with cerй taintyи but due to feedback and crossйimpacts among the trendsи it is likely to be less than the forecasts of critical points for individual trendsк The decisionйwindow may close within ten years and possibly soonerк ппм | Laszlo Chapter 16 TOMORROW’S TOURIST: FLUID AND SIMPLE IDENTITIES Ian Yeoman The globalization of tourism and increases in real wealth have meant tourists can take a holiday anywhere in the world, whether it is the North Pole or the South Pole and everywhere in between including a day trip into outer space with Virgin Galactic. Increases in disposal income allow a real change in social order, living standards and the desire for quality of life with tourism at the heart of this change. Against this background the concept of a fluid identity emerges. This trend is about the concept of self which is fluid and malleable in which self can not be defined by boundaries, within which the choice and the desire for self and new experiences drive tourist consumption. However, as wealth decreases this identity becomes simpler a new thriftiness and desire for simplicity emerge. This paper examines the values, behaviors, trends and thinking of the future tourist, whether it is a fluid or simple identity. Keywords: tourismи touristи attitudesи behaviorsи futuresк яhapter нтц Tomorrow’s Touristц Fluid and Simple Identities | ппп R INTRODUCTION: WHICH IDENTITY ising incomes and wealth accumulation distributed in new ways alter the balй ance of power in tourismк The tourist is the power base which has shifted from the institution of the travel agent through the opaqueness of online booking for holidays and travel to an individualк эt the same timeи the age is rich for new forms of connection and associationи allowing a liberated pursuit of personal identity which is fluid and much less restricted by influence of background or geographyк The society of networks in turn has facilitated and innovated a mass of options provided by communication channels leading to the paradox of choiceк In the future market placeи a tourist can holiday anywhere in the world whether it is эfghanistan or Las Vegasи to the extent the tourist can take a holiday at the North Pole or the South Pole and everywhere in between including a day trip into outer space with Virgin Galactic дYeomanи оммфек If ос million tourists took an international holiday in нхсми хмп million took a holiday in оммф дYeomanи оммфек Whyы The growth in world tourism is founded on increase in real household income per headи which doubles every ос years in OEяD countriesк This increase in disposal incomeи allows a real change in social orderи living standards and the desire for quality of life with tourism at the heart of that changeк Efй fectivelyи consumers want improvement year by yearи as if it was a wholly natural proй cess like agingк That change in disposable income has meant a greater and enhanced choice for touristsк This tourist has demanded better experiencesи faster serviceи multiple choiceи soй cial responsibility and greater satisfactionк эgainst this backgroundи as the world has moved to an experienced economy in which an endless choice through competition and accessibility because of the low cost carrierи and what has emerged is the concept of fluid identityк This trend is about the concept of self which is fluid and malleable in which self can not be defined by boundariesи within which the choice and the desire for self and new experiences drive tourist consumptionк The symbol of this identity is the fact that a consumer on average changes their hairstyle every нф months accordй ing to the research by the Future Foundation доммуеи from a tourist perspective it is about collecting countriesи trying new things and the desire for constant changeк It means the tourist is both comfortable with a hedonistic short break in Las Vegas or a six month ecoйtourism adventure across эfricaк This fluid identity makes it di cult for destinations to segment tourists by behavior or attitude as it is constant and fluidк Howeverи as wealth decreases that identity becomes more simpler a new thriftiness and desire for simplicity emerge дFlatters в Wilmottи оммхек This desire for simplicity is driven by inflationary pressures and falling levels of disposable incomesи squeezй ing the middle class consumerк эs the economies of wealth slow downи whatever the ппр | Yeoman Figure 1 The Author’s Fluid Identity and the Desire for New Experiences reasonи new patterns of tourism consumption emergeи whether it is the desire for doй mestic rather than international travel or what some call a stayйvacationк э fluid idenй tity means tourists can afford enriching new experiences and indulge themselves at premium с star resortsк They can afford to pay extra for socially conscious consumpй tionи whereas a simple identity means these trends have slowedи halted or reversed дmaybe reVERSedыек эs resources become scarcerи a mind set of a whole generation of tourists change their behaviorк юetween now and омсм the world will go through a cycle of economic prosperity and decline which is the nature of the economic orderк When wealth is greatи a fluid identity is the naked scenarioи howeverи when a recesй sion emergesи belts are tightenedи tourists like other consumers search for a simple identityк This chapter examines the valuesи behaviors and thinking of the future touristи whether it is a Fluid or Simple Identityк T FLUID IDENTITY his tourist is both interested in a two week ecoйtourism vacation where sлhe will undertake an authentic and sustainable experience but at the same time sлhe will take a short break in Las Vegasи whether it is a retail therapyи gambling or something more erotic дsee Figure нек Whyы Tourists cannot be labelled according to their attitudes and beliefs—what they say and what they doи are two totally different thingsк They constantly evolve and seek something newи just like David юeckham and his hairstyles дYeomanи оммфек That is why segmenting tomorrow’s tourists is becoming яhapter нтц Tomorrow’s Touristц Fluid and Simple Identities | ппс much more di cultк If the futureи is rising incomes and wealth accumulation in which individuality is centralи the pursuit of personal identity becomes liberated and fluid as boundaries are broken which are not restricted by geographyи culture or the pastк Fluid identity produces consumer volatility of proliferated choice and magneй sium where a high entropy society exists дFuture Foundationи оммуек Tourists have the means for endless choice and creative disorderк They have the power to express opinй ion and they do soи whether through wwwкtripadvisorкcom or wwwкyoutubeкcomк In factи they form their opinion not on trusted sources from the authority but on a peer reviewи hence the importance of the consumer generated content and the advocacy of local authentic information as providedи for exampleи by the citizens of Philadelphia at wwwкuwishunuкcomк They are excellent at using networking tools to get a better deal or complain about poor serviceк э fluid identity allows tourists to be frivolousи promiscuous and just plain awkwardк э fluid identity means tourists want to sample a range of new exй periencesи hence the rise of the long tail дэndersonи оммфе and emergence of bespoke tourism products iкeк special cruise markets at wwwкinsightcruisesкcomк э fluid identity emerges because the society is socially less rigidи that individuals have become less classйdefined and human relationships are not restricted by acciй dent of birthи but the combination of breaking class distinction through educationи income and mind expanding influence of modern travel and entertainment which broadens preordained identities and choicesк The emerging tourists from юrazilи Rusй siaи India and яhina are the new tourists who are now not restricted to one townи one churchи one marriage and one football teamи especially generations Y and Z дMcй яrindle в Wolfingerи омнме Fluid identity results in massively propelled ad hoc comй munities of new friends and connections some via social media and others through shared interest activity groupsк Ethan Watters доммре calls this Urban Tribesи groups of likeйminded people and friends doing activities together whether it is a girlie weekend of pampering or a boyish rugby gameк It is the idea that an infinite number of options are availableч this propels the idea of fluid identityк Globalization shapes people’s lives and the mixture of cultures produces expoй sure to new ideas and different identitiesк The tourist is the centre of the globalization of experiencesи where holidays in exotic locations that are deep inside countries are becoming the normк No longer is an international holiday confined to a resortи the tourist has become a travelerи staying longer and going deeper into the culture of desй tinationsк Globalization is brought nearer to us all through social media and the world ппт | Yeoman of personalized communicationsи the society that is fastи instant and networkedк No longer is the internet bound to a wire or a desk but is mobile and wirelessк Everyone seems to be online ор hours a dayи anywhereи as technology has become more accesй sible and costs of transactions are fallingк The power of personal mobile technology means more featuresи interactivity and multiйfunctionality which deliver a different way in which tourist providers have to engage with future touristsк One of the challenges for tourist destinations is how they protect their brand equity when it can be quickly destroyed or poked fun at wwwкyoutubeкcom or wwwкfacebookкcomк It means brands have to work harder to remain an authority with trust as a disruptive discourse which is shaped by the word of month or someone being followed at wwwкtwitterкcomк э tourist’s sense of timing and patience is changingч society is now just a click away from a screen and is not the one that likes the notion of delayed satisfactionк Patience is now measured in nanoseconds driving an immediacy cultureк The tourist has become programmed to be narcoticи wanting more all the time in an instanceк In Tokyoи пмб of hotel reservations are on the day of arrival as smartphone augmented technology allows tourists to look at a hotel through the smartphone camera and gauge availabilityи then book accommodation through a related website like wwwкexй pediaкcom дHattonи оммхеи all driven by applications such as the Wikitude эR Travel Guide дwwwкwikitudeкorgек Longevity is a key trend associated with fluid identityи as consumers live longer with wealth they expect richer experiences and moreк They visit places and do things that their parents could not afford or would not have heard ofк They will search for experiences that hold back the wrinkle of old ageи whether it is a spa treatment in Hungary or a medical procedure in South эfricaк Health and medical tourism become more important in this scenario along with any service that rejuvenates the soul or a tired bodyк Longevity also changes life coursesи so change becomes the norm and is unpredictableк эlthough tourists may have their favorite placeи they like refreshй ment and renewalк This meansи they ask themselves who they are and a multiplicity of answers su ceк Michael Wilmott дWilmott в Nelsonи оммсе calls this complicated livesи in which the choice explosion of holidays and travel means tourists have brought upon themselves complexity and complications resulting in some anxietyк эt one levelи this means many tourists are opting out and talking career breaks and travelling the worldи on another scale authenticity becomes important as tourists look for simplicityк эt another levelи destination brands have to find a means to ensure they can help a tourist unclutter this world through a brand search optimizationи a high brand value and choice managementк эlthough choice is regarded as a positive value within a яhapter нтц Tomorrow’s Touristц Fluid and Simple Identities | ппу consumption cultureи choice making support is importantи such as a book recommenй dation service at wwwкamazonкcomк Tourism destinations need to understand their touristsи not engaging in a relationй ship which is about mass selling but focusing on what tourists want at the right time and at the right placeк To a certain extentи fluid identity is about wealth and a haveйitй all societyи these tourists can afford holidays several times a year and a multitude of short breaksк This is a tourist that can afford to be concerned about the environment so sлhe does not mind paying a little bit extraк In a haveйitйall societyи the desire is for socialityи economic gainи family involvementи leisure and self improvement which are less delineated by stages of life or genderи all of these desires are reflected in holiday activityи whether it is an extended family holiday at Walt Disney Park or a cultural short break in Parisк The expectation amongst the tourist with a fluid identity is they want a richer and fulfilling lifeи but at the same time there is pressures of expectationи hence the previous mentioned link to a disruptive discourse in this identityк эlthough rising wealth means more opportunitiesи it also means a fear of lossи in which society is portrayed in declineк Here a consumer turns to therapies and anti deй pressantsи is anxious about the future and thinks society has lost its wayк Writersи such as Frank Furedi доммте label this ‘the culture of fear’к From a tourism and media perй spective there seems to be a focus on a health scare or terrorism incident which imй pacts upon destinationsк The incident is portrayed as overtly bad news which results in countries issuing travel advisories advising us not to travel to such and such a placeк э heightened sense of personal freedom has undoubtedly increased the growth of world tourismи where identity is built on liberal attitudes reinforced through eduй cation and knowledgeк The exposure of tourists to a multi cultured society allows a greater expression of individualityи whether this is sexual behavior or unconventional lifestylesи however this degree of liberalism differs around the worldк Fundamentallyи as economies grow they become more liberal in outlook and seek to push out their identityк эs suchи they will try new things and visit new placesи destinations in the far away places that seemed inaccessible to previous generationsк The manifestations of a fluid identity are wideйrangingи from overt and statusй driven to the anonymous and elusiveк Yet the common characteristic for the tourй ists is that they simply do not want to consume but experience the consumption in several waysи increasing aspirations and higher order expectations дYeoman оммфек One noticeable trend shaping a fluid identity is the movement from conspicuous conй sumption to inconspicuous consumptionи especially amongst tourists from advanced ппф | Yeoman economies of the world who are well versed with travelк It has become the norm not to parade wealth and success in a deliberate ostentationи but to be more conservaй tiveи wiser and discreetк From a tourism perspectiveи inconspicuous consumption has developed as the experience economy has matured from theatre to the desire for authenticityи where tourists search for deeper and more meaningful experiencesк This trend has changed the meaning of luxury in society away from materialism to more about enrichment and personal developmentи for a tourist it is about the point of selfйactualization in Maslow hierarchy of needs дMaslowи нххфек Luxury has therefore become more accessible to the growing middle classes of the worldи in which they can hire a Ferrari for the weekend дwwwкgothamdreamcarsкcomе or even hire the latest designer handbags дwwwкbagborroworstealкcomек Related to the changing nature of luxury is the importance of cultural capitalи that is how tourists talk about destinations and experiencesк The importance of cultural capital defines identity and statusи it becomes the critical currency of conversation iкeки ‘have you been to South эfrica’и ‘I swam with the dolphins in New Zealand’ or ‘I built a bridge for a community in India’к It is the knowledge and experiences of the artsи culture and hobbies that help define who people are rather than their socioeconomic groupingк Sociologists such as Rifkin днхфре and юourdieu дюourdieu в Niceи нхфуе arй gue that consumers are moving from the era of industrial to cultural capitalismи where cultural production is increasingly becoming the dominant form of the economic acй tivity and securing access to many cultural resources and experiencesк This means that the definition of culture changesи the tourist is both happy with a highйbrow opй era and lowйbrow comedyи hence the rise of the creative class and noйbrow culture associated for exampleи with the success of Edinburgh’s festivals which embody the diversity of cultural capital and the breath of experiencesк The emergence of a fluid identity means tourists are genetically programmed to be suspicious and rather cynical of all marketing and advertisingк эs if the tourist that is instinctively mobilized to mount resistance and rebukeк It also becomes increasingly di cult to label and segment tourists by demographicsи attitudes and economic wellй being as fluidity becomes the norm in this scenarioк э fluid identity represents a chalй lenge for tourism destinations because of the constant change and resistanceк …therefore, a fluid identity is represented in the following scenario Michael Hay is a офйyearйold business executive from Londonк Michael is a seaй soned travellerи who likes to take two long haul holidays a year and several short breaksк This year Michael is visiting Tokyo and wants to climb Mt Fuji and see the яhapter нтц Tomorrow’s Touristц Fluid and Simple Identities | ппх Figure 2 snow monkeys near Naganoк He chose Japan because friends had previously visited the countryч they often talked about the foodи peopleи how everyone was so helpfulи how safe the country is and what a wonderful experience it wasк Michael had considй ered яhinaи but he had watched so many viral videosи that he was put off from visitй ing яhina at the presentк Prior to visiting Japan he had read a couple of guide books which formed the basis of a vague itineraryк He looked at the destinations website for information and could vaguely recall Tourism Japan had sponsored some sort of sporting eventк His seven day vacation to Japan begins in Tokyoи he has not booked an accomй modation and is relying on his Nikon пммUXP contact lensesни such is the speed of the technology that at the flick of the eyeи details of the JP five star hotel is sought using the latest augmented reality technology and its availability is confirmed and a reservaй tion madeк In additionи a five day tour to central Japan is organized by his online travel agent based upon his requisitesи attraction bookingи hotel accommodation and transй port connectionsк Japan is a place known for its organizational e ciency and excellent transport infrastructure making it easy to get aroundк Michael is even going to road test a classic омом Ferrariи something that requires manual control and skill not like today’s automatic personal vehiclesк Each day Michael tries something newи whether it is a Japanese spa treatmentи staying in a traditional Ryokan or hiking up Mt Fujiк эll in allи a wonderful action packed holidayи everything from adventure to tranquillityк нк э new generation of contact lenses built with very small circuits and LEDs promises bionic eyeй sightк The University of Washingtonи in Seattle has engineered a lens akin to Terminator moviesк эrnold Schwarzenegger’s character sees the world with data superimposed on his visual field—virtual captions that enhance the cyborg’s scan of a sceneк In stories by the science fiction author Vernor Vingeи charй acters rely on electronic contact lensesи rather than smartphones or brain implantsи for seamless access to information that appears right before their eyesк These lenses do not give us the vision but have the potential to deliver the vision of an eagle and the benefit of running subtitles httpцллwwwкspectrumк ieeeкorgлbiomedicalлbionicsлaugmentedйrealityйinйaйcontactйlensлмк прм | Yeoman This scenario is shaped by many of the trends associated with a fluid identity inй cludingи wealthи a networked societyи resistance to marketingи strong brand imageи culture of fearи choice managementи personal recommendationи variety of experiencй es and its cultural capitalк The importance of the scenario highlights how individuals shape their life using technologies as shortйcuts and choice managersи however the biggest influence choice is personal recommendation and the ability to lead a fluid identity depends on wealthк T SIMPLE IDENTIFY he Global Financial яrisis дGFяе plummeted the value of the High Net Worth population by US апокф trillion or нхкс б according to the World Wealth Report доммхе published by яapgemini and Merrill Lynchи so the rich are less richк Flatй ters and Wilmott доммхе argue that in most developed economies preйGFя the preй cession consumer behavior was the product of нс years of uninterrupted prosperityи driven by growth in real levels of disposal incomesи low inflationи stable employment and booming property pricesк Thereforeи new consumer appetites emerged in which a consumer could afford to be curious about gadgets and technologyи in which tourists shelled out for enriching and fun experiences on exotic locationsк The GFя changed thatи propelling tourist trends into slowdownи halting or even reversing the trajectory of growth in world tourismк Soи is this a sample of the futureи the era of the pension crisisи scarcity of oilи inflation and falling levels of disposal income in which tourism expenditure falls year by yearы If soи what will the future tourist look likeы Rather than having a fluid identity it will be more akin to simplicityк During an economic slowdownи tourists tend to travel lessи stay nearer home дinй crease in domestic tourismе and seek simplicity such as wwwкexploreworldwideкcom’ value based holidays focusing on basic facilitiesи meeting localsи lots of free time and cheapк This trend is accelerated in the scenario of falling incomes as a simple and functional product that will su ceк э simple identify means offering advice becomes extremely importantи whether its website’s wwwкfarecastкcom which advises travellers when the optimal time to purchase an airline ticket is or price comparison technoloй gies which are found on many online booking servicesк When simplicity is combined with thriftи tourists trade downк The Pod Hotel in Manhattan дwwwкthepodhotelкcomеи where accommodation usually costs US апмм a nightи offers single beds from US афх a night including bunk bedsк The use of technolй ogy and social media assists tourists in the search for bargainsи whether it is the use of augmented technologies in smartphones or contact lens which view availability and яhapter нтц Tomorrow’s Touristц Fluid and Simple Identities | прн prices as we view them in the street or recommendations from a network of friends on social media sitesк Thrift and simplicity also combine to drive the trend of Visiting Friends and Relatives дVFRеи as incomes fall getting back to basics and developing huй man relationships are very importantи and the most important aspects of tourists’ lives are friends and relativesк Research by the Trajectory Group дFlatters в Wilmottи оммхе highlights that a uй ent consumers have revealed mounting dissatisfaction with excessive consumptionк Many desire a wholesome and less wasteful lifeк Hence there is a desire to get back to natureи something that is tranquilи basicи rootedи human and simple дYeomanи оммфек эs a consequenceи the desire for more authentic and simple luxury experiences accelй eratesк эn example of simple luxury is a tree house hotel which offers a unique experiй ence in a natural settingк э new experience is seen not as conspicuous consumptionи but as overtly inconspicuousк For instanceи the яosta Rica Jungle Hotel is situated in the rainforest around эrenal Volcanoи surrounded by wildlife and birds дtreehouseй shotelcostaricaкcomлек эnother example is hayйvacationsи where holidayйmakers pay to stay and work on farmsк Holidayйmakers are turning to haycations to experience a world far removed from their daily lifeк эt Stoney яreek Farm дwwwкstonycreekfarmк orgеи tourists are charged up to US апмм a night to work on the farmк This is an exй perience where tourists pick there own foodи then cook it that evening and in a locaй tion with no cellphone reachк During the times of recession tourists are searching for back to basic experiences that are simpleи with a sense of community and authenticityк эbout см б of the tourists to Stoney яreek Farm are locals from the same countyк This is a typical example of inconspicuous consumption and a desire for a simple identityк In a simple identityи ethical consumption declines as paying a premium for a Starй bucks coffee falls by the waysideи even if they use organic coffee which supports chilй dren in a third world countryк From a tourism perspectiveи many of the ethical tourism projects in third world countriesи such as эfrica and Indiaи which depend on indepenй dent travellersи will sufferк Tourists also have become canny at searching for bargainsи which economists call mercurial consumptionи whether it is using price comparison softwareи or grapping last minute offers from websites such as wwwкgrabaseatкcoкnz which offer last minute air travel deals to New Zealand consumersи or wwwксpmкcoкuk which offers diners a chance of discounted meals after сpm that eveningк The dominance of technology and social media has changed consumers purchasing behavior to something more mercurial in which they actively search for bargains through price comparison webй sitesк про | Yeoman эttitudes to travel also changeи as tourism has to compete with other forms of leiй sure expenditureи whether it is the latest technology gadgets or virtual holidaysк There is a generation of Japan youth who prefer their Xйюox to climbing Mt Fujiк The desire for new experiences is more about ‘insperience’ дTrend Hunterи оммфеи where technolй ogy provides a better experience than the oneи in which consumers desire to bring top level experiences into their domestic domainк There have been many predictions about the end of the high street travel agent in the last decadeи but in fact during times of economic slowdownи when tourists are trying to unravel complexity and give up excessи they go back to travel agencies to reduce choice through an e cient filtering process and maximise time managementк In additionи the desire for new experiences slows down as a number of simple repeat trips to usual places also increases дюuhalisи оммхек In an economic slowdownи the role of authority changes as governments interй vene to stabilize marketsи bring assurance and confidence to marketsи create jobs and increase public expenditureк Therefore many countries have increased marketing exй pensesи particularly in domestic markets to entice tourists to stay at home this year дhence the term stayйvacationе as international markets fallк The tourism industry in particularи will turn to government to offer support and strategic leadership when the private sector is failingк Thereforeи trust in authority increases and destination brands that offer valueи honesty and can deliver on brand promise become more importantк New Zealand is the adventure capital of the worldи whether it is a bungee jumpingи jet boatingи bugging or skydivingк During an economic slowdown extremeйexperience seeking stallsи as they are seen as expensiveи frivolousи risky and environmentally deй structiveк Extreme adventure is partially about how a tourist differentiates themselvesк юut conspicuous consumption is out of favour and the trend of simplicity and discreй tionary spend is inк So for destinations like New Zealandи extreme sports like bungee jumping and jet boating will be curtailedк The GFя has focused the consumer mind on the boardroomи in particular the exй ecutive bonuses of companies such as эIGи Royal юank of Scotland or General Motorsк Excess has become a dirty wordи as such travel and the meetings industry have taken a hit as too many think that this sector is about excessive and unnecessary expenditureк If the future is a simple identityи the key words are simplicityи thrift and mercurial consumption which leads to a scenario in the following mannerц яhapter нтц Tomorrow’s Touristц Fluid and Simple Identities | прп Sheena Michaels is тфи lives in London and is a partйtime social workerк She is well travelledи has just completed an Open University degree in Technology and is a volunteer with a number of local community projectsк яircumstances force Sheena to work part time because of her pension shortfall and she thinks that this will continue until her health dictates otherwiseк Since London is recognized as a cultural centre for tourismк Lack of monies means Sheena has to watch how she spends her moneyк Websites such as wwwкculturalpriceкcom tell Sheena in advance when it is the right time to book a theatre ticket and Sheena’s social media network of friends advise on special deals etcк Sheena would like to travel but nowadays tends to stay in the local region doing day trips in the surrounding hinterlandк When she does go on holidayи it is staying with friends and familiesк This year she managed to take a short break in юarcelonaи staying with friends and capturing much of the city cultureи especially the galleriesк Todayи Sheena is travelling to the Soho Theatre Quarter in central London as it is the opening day of the Quarter’s Festival and many of the acts are performing free street showsк She manages to take in several short acts includingи an eight minute performance of all Will Shakespeare’s plays by the Royal яompany and a lunchtime comedy performance by Leo юlair on ‘the exploits of a Prime Minister’s Son’к Eventuй allyи Sheena and friends find a café for a cup of tea and just watch the world go byк This scenario is shaped by many of the trends associated with a simple identity includingи a networked societyи simplicity and thriftи pricing technologiesи highly eduй catedи communityи use of leisure time and personal recommendationк The importance of the scenario highlights how individuals trade down and are thrifty with spendingк T CONCLUSION ourism is an unpredictable industryи shaped by eventsи world economy and the sociopolitical environmentк Tourists are fickle and when times are good will spend large amounts of disposal income on tourismк To a certain extentи tourй ists retrench and focus on lower order basic needs when times are hardи so tourism declinesк Given the Global Financial яrisis and the forthcoming demographic and penй sions time bomb we could see year by year decline in tourism expenditure with омсм being the flip pointк When tourists do have moneyи they possess a fluid identity of constant change in a fast moving worldи in which they are easily boredи seek novй eltyи desire thrillи something newи aspiration and enrichmentк Tourism has always been about funи relaxationи entertainmentи enrichment and enjoymentи but will it be simple or fluidи only time will tellк прр | Yeoman REFERENCES эndersonи як оммфк Long Tailц The Revised and Updated Editionц Why the Future of юusiness is Selling Less of Moreк Londonц Hyperionк юourdieuи Pки and Niceи Rк нхфук Distinctionц э Social яritique of the Judgment of Tasteк юostonц Harvard юusiness Pressк юuhalisи Dк оммхк Personal communication on ownerйtrinetйlьhawaiiкedu discussion boardк Flattersи Pки and Wilmottи Mк оммхк Understanding the Post Recession яonsumerк Harvard юusiness Reviewк July–эugustц нмт–ннок Furediи Fк оммтк яulture of Fear Revisitedц Riskйtaking and the Morality of Low Expectationк Londonц яontinuumк Future Foundationи nVision яentral Scenario UKк Londonц Future Foundationи оммук Hattonи я оммхк The Future of Technologyк Tourism Futures Proceedingк Goldcoast нфth эugustк Maslowи эк нххфк Toward a Psychology of юeingк New Yorkц Wileyк Mcяrindleи Mк and Wolfingerи Eк омнмк The эюя of XYZц Understanding the Global Generationsк Sydneyц UNSW Pressи Rifkinи Jк нхфрк The эge of эccessц The New яulture of Hypercapitalismи Where all of Life is a PaidйFor Experienceк Londonц Tarcherк Trend Hunter доммфе Insperience Economyк эccessed on the нтth September оммх at wwwк trendhunterкcom Wattersи Eк оммрк Urban Tribesц эre Friends the New Familyы New Yorkц юloomsburyк Wilmottи Mки and Nelsonи Wк оммск яomplicated Livesц The Malaise of Modernityк яhichesterц Wileyк World Wealth Report оммхк яapgemini and Merrill Lynchи оммхк эvailable at httpцллwwwк capgeminiкcomлresourcesлthought_leadershipломмх_world_wealth_reportл Yeomanи Iк оммфк Tomorrows Touristsц Scenarios в Trendsк Oxfordц Elsevierк Yeomanи Iки Munroи яки and McMahonйюeattieи Uк оммтк Tomorrows Worldи яonsumer в Touristк Journal of Vacation Marketing нодоец нур–нхмк яhapter нтц Tomorrow’s Touristц Fluid and Simple Identities | прс CHAPTER 17 WORLD ENERGY AND CLIMATE IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY IN THE CONTEXT OF HISTORICAL TRENDS: CLEAR CONSTRAINTS TO FUTURE GROWTH Vladimir V. Klimenko and Alexey G. Tereshin The paper deals with global energy perspectives and forthcoming changes in the atmosphere and climate under the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors. In the framework of the historical approach to energy development the forecast of the future global energy consumption for the present century is elaborated, and its resource base and the global impact of the power sector on the atmosphere and climate against the background of natural factors influence are studied. It is shown that, following the historical path of global energy evolution, the global energy consumption will remain within 28–29 billion tons of coal equivalent (tce) by the end of the century, with CO2 emissions peaking in the middle of this century. In this scenario, the CO2 concentrations will not exceed 500 ppm, and the global temperature should rise by 1.5 °C by 2100, with the growth rate not exceeding the adaptation limits of the biosphere. Keywords: energyи climate changeи carbon dioxide emissionк яhapter нуц World Energy эnd яlimate | пру E INTRODUCTION nergy is a fundamental base of the evolution of civilizationи and the twentyйfirst century poses for the world energy sector a challenging task of ensuring sustainй able development of human societyк The progressing growth of population will undeniably lead to the necessity of accelerated development of many regions of the worldи andи as a resultи to enhanced demand for energy in the nearest decadesк Thusи to provide fuel and energy resources to the world economy is one of the principal problems posed to humanityк On the other handи today energy sector is considered as one of the principal factors entailing global environmental changeи which overrides all other anthropogenic factors and compares with powerful natural forces in its impact on the climate of the planet дsee Solomon et al., оммуек The concern about the scale of observed climate changes дin particularи an increase of the mean global temperature by мкф °я over the past ном yearsе and anxious projections of further warming дup to с °я over the current centuryе make the ecological policyи along with the state of the resource baseи one of the principal regulators of the world energy developmentк There have been a great number of publications concerning the aboveйmentioned problems over the past decadesи and these problems have been in the centre of atй tention of leading national and international institutionsк Howeverи great controversy still exists in the opinions as to the global energy perspectives and the scale of their associated environmental and climate changesк эt the same timeи it is quite understandable that without a more or less clear view of the future energy useи one cannot build realistic scenarios of its impact on the environment and climate and develop an e cient adaptation policyк э question thus arises of whether longйterm forecasts of energy demand are feasible at allы Many exй pertsи bearing in mind an extensive negative experience in this field дseeи eкgки a review of scenarios of global energy consumption in Klimenko et al., оммне tend to give a negative answer to this questionк In our opinionи the situation may prove to be not so hopeless if one resorts to a historical extrapolation approach that is widely known in contemporary sociology and economy as the theory of institutional changes дsee Northи нххмеи which is based on the concept that the history of complex systems development predetermines their future behavior for many years aheadк In the present work we set ourselves the task to outline the direction of the world energy developmentи based on the principal trends in its historical evolutionи and to assessи from the same standpointи resource availabilй ity and the most probable impact on the global climatic systemк прф | Klimenko в Tereshin The suggested assessments are based on the soйcalled genetic forecast of global energy consumption developed at the Moscow Energy Institute дMEIе over ом years ago дsee Klimenko в Klimenkoи нххмч Snytin et al., нххреи and which has shown a reй markable correspondence to the observed data over the past decadesк The deviation of projected values from the global energy statistics data was within о би whichи in our opinionи makes it possible to build up a super longйterm energy forecast with an accuracy su cient for climatic assessmentsк э consistent application of the genetic approach to energy use forecasting дidentification and extrapolation of historical tenй dencies to the futureе allowed drawing two basic conclusions as to the development of world energy demand in the nearest decadesц нк Stabilization of the national per capita energy consumption at the level primarily determined by climatic and geographic factors дsee Klimenkoи нххрек This process has already been completed in the most developed countries дsee Klimenko et al., оммнч Energy Statistics Yearbookи оммхч юP Statistical Review…и оммхч International Energy эnnualи оммхч Demographic Yearbookи оммхек ок Steady and nearly linear decrease of the carbon intensity of global energy as a result of structural changes in the world fuel mix that lingered for more than нмм years дsee Klimenkoи Vк Vки Klimenkoи эк Vки эndreichenko et al. нххуек The realization of the former tendency should lead to the fact that the global per capita energy consumption will reach окх–пкм tceлyearи whichи by the wayи is quite close to the present level докт tce per capita in оммхеч as a resultи since the Earth’s population is expected to reach хкс billion by онмм дsee World Population…и оммхеи the energy consumption will make оф–ох billion tceлyearи which is нкт times above the present levelк Thusи the historical approach prohibits the energy consumption increase to тми нмми andи all the moreи омм billion tceлyear over the present centuryи which frequently conceded by the authors of the most radical energy scenarios дsee Nakicenovic в Swartи омммек The preservation of the latter tendency means that the growth of the anthropoй genic impact on the climatic system steadily slows down andи thereforeи one can exй pect that the anthropogenic emission of яOо will fairly soonи within the next quarter of centuryи reach its maximumк There is not any mysticism in the steady andи apparentlyи irreversible decrease of the carbon intensityк Moreoverи this fact can be philosophically substantiated in terms of the principle of progressive simplificationи a phenomenon of widespread occurrence in nature and social life and observed not only in engineeringи but also in scienceи artи philosophyи and theology дsee Toynbeeи нхффек эs applied to яhapter нуц World Energy эnd яlimate | прх the energy sectorи this principle is manifested in a gradual transfer from more comй plexи ‘conserved’ energy sources to more elementaryи naturalк Such is the trend of global energy development from coal to oilи then to gasи andи finallyи to renewable дsolarи windи tidal etcке sourcesк GLOBAL RESOURCES OF FOSSIL FUELS AND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND PROSPECTIVE ENERGY BALANCE IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY э necessary test for consistency of any energy scenario includes assessment of its fuel and energy reserves’ availabilityк Surprisingly as it may seemи the amount of fossil fuels expected to be consumed in many previous ‘high’ energy conй sumption scenarios did exceed not only its proven recoverable reservesи but often also hypothetical additional resourcesк In the present work to estimate the consumption of hydrocarbon fuels дoil and natural gasе we made use of the soйcalled ‘depleting resource consumption concept’ дEnergy and Nuclear Power…и нхфсе which suggests declining production rates of a resource as its stocks are gradually depletedк In this caseи the cumulative consumpй tion trend of the resource is described by a logistic function with an exponential initial portion and an asymptote defined by the ultimate amount of recoverable reservesк For the latter we accept the sum of discovered recoverable reserves and prospective additional resourcesи which poses the theoretical limit of the availability of this kind of fuel from the geologic and economic viewpoints дin terms of the World Energy яounй cil дWEяе [see WEя Survey…и оммн]ек In this respect the present research differs from our previous work дsee Snytinи Klimenkoи в Fedorovи нххре where we took no account of additional oil and gas resourcesи which resulted in a slightly distorted projection of the structure of global energy balanceи envisioning continuous increase of the coal share andи vice versaи decrease of oil and gas share already from the beginning of the current centuryк In realityи the last decade showed that oil has preserved its leading position in the world fuel mixи while coal consumptionи increasing with the annual rate of р би left natural gas behindк Figure н shows a record of changes of discovered recoverable reserves of hydroй carbon fuels over the past тм years дaccording to юP Statistical Review…и оммхч Interй national Energy эnnual…и оммхч Energy and Nuclear Power…и нхфсч WEя Surveyи оммнек Evidentlyи the estimates for oilи as well as for gas resources have changed considerй ablyц as compared with нхсми they have increased by an order of magnitudeи regardй less of current high production rates дabout с and р billion tceлyear for oil and gasи псм | Klimenko в Tereshin Figure 1 Record of the estimated proven recoverable reserves of hydrocarbons: (1) oil and (2) natural gas. respectivelyек Howeverи it is quite clear that this situation cannot last indefinitely longи and the curve shapes in Figure н show that annual buildйup of oil resources today nearly match oil production rateи and the situation with gas will obviously become the same over the nearest decade or twoк Thusи the global proven recoverable oil and gas reserves are currently about орм billion tce eachи and the ultimate recovery дincluding additional recoverable resources дsee WEя Survey…и оммнеи comprises том and рхм bilй lion tceи respectivelyк Fitting the historical series of the cumulative oil and gas production дsee Energy Statistics Yearbookи оммхч юP Statistical Review…и оммхч International Energy…и оммхе by a logistic function with ultimate oil and gas reserves as asymptotes determines the trend in the annual production of hydrocarbon fuels for the nearest decades дFigure о and пек The genetic forecast assumes that these kinds of fuel will cover some рм б of global energy demand by омсми but less than нм б by the end of the centuryк For comparison in Figure о and п the principal scenario of the WEя and International Institute of эpplied System эnalysis дWEялIIэSэе дsee Nakicenovicи Grublerи and Mcй Donald нххфе is shownи according to which the total consumption of oil will fully deй plete its resources by онмми and the total consumption of natural gas will even exceed its ultimate resourcesк The same features are characteristic for the scenario юо of the Intergovernmental Panel on яlimate яhanges дIPяяе дsee Nakicenovic в Swartи омммек эlthough this scenario is not specified as a basic oneи it assumes moderate demoй яhapter нуц World Energy эnd яlimate | псн Figure 2 Cumulative global gas consumption: (1) historical data (Energy Statistics Yearbook 2006; BP Statistical Review… 2009; Energy Statistics Yearbook 2009); (2) forecast of the present work; and (3) WEC/IIASA Reference Case scenario (Nakicenovic, Grubler, and McDonald 1998). Figure 3. Cumulative global oil consumption: (1) historical data (see International Energy Annual 2009; BP Statistical Review… 2009; Energy Statistics Yearbook 2009); (2) forecast of the present work; and (3) WEC/IIASA Reference Case scenario (see Nakicenovic, Grubler, and McDonald 1998). псо | Klimenko в Tereshin graphic and economic growth parameters and is placed in the centre of the spectrum of forty alternative energy development scenarios presented in дIbidкек To keep the tendency for specific яOо emission decrease with the growing enй ergy productionи the suggested genetic forecast requires that the share of coal in the global energy balance be maintained at a level of нс–ом бк Thusи this ‘clean energy’ scenario assumes that nonйfossil energy sources will cover about пм б of the energy demand by омсм and up to тс б by онмм against present ом б дTable нек Scenario ‘Clean energy’ (present work) Energy source 2000 2100 3,2 (23 %) 3,1 (15 %) 3,7 (14 %) 5,5 (19 %) Oil & gas 8,0 (56 %) 11,1 (54 %) 10,2 (39 %) 2,0 (7 %) Non-CO2 commercial 1,7 (12 %) 4,2 (20 %) 9,8 (38 %) 18,4 (65 %) 2,1 (10 %) 2,3 (9 %) 2,4 (9 %) Total 14,2 (100 %) 20,5 (100 %) 26,1 (100 %) 28,3 (100 %) Coal 3,2 (23 %) 3,3 (16 %) 6,7 (26 %) 8,1 (29 %) Oil & gas 8,0 (56 %) 11,1 (54 %) 10,2 (39 %) 2,0 (7 %) Non-CO2 commercial 1,7 (13 %) 4,0 (20 %)) 6,9 (26 %) 15,8 (56 %) 2,1 (10 %) 2,3 (9 %) 2,4 (9 %) Non-commercial 1,3 (9 %) Total 14,2 (100 %) 20,5 (100 %) 26,1 (100 %) 28,3 (100 %) Coal 3,2 (22 %) Oil & gas 8,0 (56 %) Reference case WEC/ IIASA Non-CO2 1,7 (13 %) (Nakicenovic et commercial al. 1998) Non-commercial 1,3 (9 %) Scenario 2050 Coal Non-commercial 1,3 (9 %) ‘Coal energy’ (present work) 2020 5,1 (26 %) 6,5 (23 %) 12,6 (26 %) 10,5 (54 %) 13,4 (47 %) 14,4 (29 %) 2,6 (13 %) 7,2 (25 %) 21,6 (44 %) 1,2 (6 %) 1,2 (4 %) 0,6 (1 %) Total 14,2 (100 %) 19,4 (100 %) 28,3 (100 %) 49,2 (100 %) Energy source 2000 2020 2050 2100 Coal 3,2 (22 %) 3,3 (17 %) 3,0 (10 %) 10,2 (22 %) 12,6 (65 %) 17,8 (60 %) 13,4 (29 %) 2,2 (11 %) 7,6 (26 %) 21,4 (46 %) 1,3 (7 %) 1,3 (4 %) 1,3 (3 %) Oil & gas 8,0 (56 %) B2 scenario IPCC Non-CO2 1,7 (13 %) (Nakicenovic commercial and Swart 2000) Non-commercial 1,3 (9 %) Total 14,2 (100 %) 19,3 (100 %) 29,7 (100 %) 46,3 (100 %) Table 1 Global fuel mix for different energy scenarios, billion tce яhapter нуц World Energy эnd яlimate | псп Howeverи the energy consumption parameters over the last decade point to preй vailing growth rates of global coal consumptionи primarily due to яhina and Indiaк This tendency provides some evidence in favor of the soйcalled ‘coal bridge’ theory formulated three decades agoи according to which this kind of fuel should fill the gap between depleting hydrocarbon reserves and slowly developing renewable energy sourcesк To account for this tendencyи an alternative scenario was developedи that put emphasis on coal whose annual consumption was estimated by a procedure analoй gous to that used with oil and gas дFigure рек The shape of fuel mix for this scenario д‘coal energy’еи which expects that by онмм the share of coal will increase to пм б and nonйяOо emission energy sources will make about a halfи is also presented in Table ни along with the WEялIIэSэ and IPяя data дsee Nakicenovicи Grublerи в McDonaldи нххфч Nakicenovic в Swartи омммек яonsidering the dynamics of the world fuel mixи one can note that the longйterm expectations associated with the development of nuclear energy technologies дspeй cificallyи the WEялIIэSэ scenarios [see Nakicenovicи Grublerи в McDonaldи нххф]е proй jecting a growth of the annual nuclear power production over the current century up to ос–рм trillion kWhи which is equivalent to annual combustion of ф–нп billion tce at thermal power plantsне have not come trueц most experts дsee International Energy Outlook оммхч World Energy…и оммфе do not see the possibility that the present nucleй ar electricity production дabout окф trillion kWhлyearе will increase considerablyк Thusи the basic scenarios both of the US Department of Energy дsee International Energy Outlook…и оммхе and International Energy эgency дsee World Energy Outlookи оммфе suggest that the annual nuclear electricity production will span the range пкс–пкф trilй lion kWh over the period to омпмк Thusи the share of nuclear energy in global energy consumption will comprise no more than several percentк Hydroenergyи regardless of expected increase of its production rate дat present one third of the economic global hydro potential is already harnessedеи tooи will be able to cover no more than нм б of the total energy demandк эs a resultи by онмми to implement the genetic scenario will require the energy production from nonйtraditional renewable sources to increase to нт–нф billion tceлyear or about см trillion kWhлyearи which is quite possibleи since these production rates are well below the technical potential дand just about three times as high as the economic potential calculated for the conditions at the beginning of this centuryе of both solar and other kinds of renewable energy дTable ое whose utiй lization rates have grown consistently by ф б a year over the past three decades дsee Energy Statistics оммхч International Energy эnnual…и оммхек нк Recalculation of the soйcalled primary electricityи i.e. nonйfossil electric powerи is performed by the equation н kWh щ мкпнх kgceи with the global average e ciency of thermal power plants taken to be equal to мкпфск пср | Klimenko в Tereshin Renewables Economical Potential Theoretical Potential Technical Potential solar 8700 720 5,3 hydro 40 15 8,0 Renewables Theoretical Potential Technical Potential Economical Potential wind 500 53 2,4 wave and tides 22 6 0,6 geothermal 5,000,000 6 1,0 TOTAL 5,009,262 800 17,0 Table 2 Potential of renewable energy sources, trillion kWh/year (see Energy and Nuclear Power 1985; WEC Survey 2001; International Energy Outlook 2009; World Energy Outlook 2008) Figure 4 Cumulative global coal consumption: (1) historical data (see International Energy Annual 2009; BP Statistical Review… 2009; Energy Statistics Yearbook 2009); (2) forecast of the present work; and (3) WEC/IIASA Reference Case scenario (see Nakicenovic, Grubler, and McDonald 1998). яhapter нуц World Energy эnd яlimate | псс The structure of the world energy balance suggested in the present work for the forecast of global energy consumption up to омсм is quite similar to that in дNakiй cenovicи Grublerи в McDonaldи нххфч Nakicenovic в Swartи оммме дTable нек эppreй ciable differences in the estimates for the shares of hydrocarbon fuels and nonйяOо emission energy sources arise closer to онмми resulting from the fact that the status of energy technologies by this time is still di cult to predictк Neverthelessи the share of nonйfossil energy sources that we expect by онмм дсс–тс бе is considered in a number of IPяя scenarios дiкeки энTи энюи and юн scenariosе дsee Nakicenovic в Swartи омммек Thusи even though we made use of quite a different approach to assess global enй ergy perspectivesи our suggested structure of global fuel balance does not generally contradict expert assessments for the development of energy technologies andи with regard to fossil fuelsи it is fully provided by available natural resourcesк Environmental characteristics of the suggested scenarios are determined by the carbon coe cient of global energy consumption дFigure сек One can see thatи with the recent growing share of coal in the global commercial energy consumptionи the longй term tendency for a decrease of carbon intensity reversesи approaching the current нкх ton яOолtce from the minimum of нкф ton яOолtce in оммм but the subsequent decrease to the ‘clean’ scenario level by the end of the century is anticipatedк Surelyи such changes should appreciably enhance emissions of яOо дand other greenhouse Figure 5 Dynamics of the carbon coefficient of the global commercial energy consumption: (1) historical data (see International Energy Annual 2009; BP Statistical Review… 2009; Energy Statistics Yearbook 2009); (2) ‘clean energy’ and (3) ‘coal energy’ scenarios of the present work. пст | Klimenko в Tereshin gasesек These consequences and their associated global climate changes are considй ered belowк D ATMOSPHERE AND CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ramatic scenarios of future global warming дsee Solomon et al. оммуе are based on models of general atmosphere and ocean circulation simulationsко эs was repeatedly shown дeкgки see Klimenkoи Vк Vки Klimenkoи эк Vки and Tereshinи оммнч Klimenkoи Vк Vки Klimenkoи эк Vки эndreichenko et al., нххуеи these modelsи while getй ting more and more complicatedи are still incapable of adequately representing the observed climate changes and give widely scattered estimates for such an important parameter of a climatic system as the sensitivity to the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphereи whichи according to various estimates дtheir review is given in Soloй mon et al. оммуеи varies in the range нкс–скс degк with doubling яOо concentrationк To overcome these di cultiesи we have developed a more simple regression analytiй cal climatic model дRэяMе дsee Klimenkoи нххуи оммуч Klimenkoи Vк Vки Klimenkoи эк Vки эndreichenko et al.и нххуч Klimenko et al., нххрч Klimenkoи Mikushinaи в Tereshinи нхххч Klimenko в Mikushinaи оммсч Khrustalev et al., оммфе which combines physiй cal methods for representing thermodynamic processes in the ocean – atmosphere system and statistical methods for correlating their impact дtemperature responsesе with external perturbing factorsк With a correct account for the effect of a few major natural climate forcing дsolarи volcanic etcке we estimate the sensitivity of the global cliй matic system at about нкх °я for doubled яOо concentrationи which falls into the lower range of estimates for this parameter дsee Solomon et al., оммуек To estimate the changes in atmospheric яOо contentи associated with anthropoй genic emissionи we made use of the box diffusion model of global carbon cycleи develй oped at the Moscow Energy Institute дsee Klimenkoи Vк Vки Klimenkoи эк Vки эndreichenй ko et al., нххуек The яOо concentrations calculated by greenhouse emission scenarios for the ‘clean’ and ‘coal’ global energy development models are shown in Figure тк эccording to the RэяM global climate change projectionsи assuming the basic forecast of principal climate forcing factors дIbidке and ‘coal energy’ scenarioи the globй al average temperature will increase by about нкп °я within this centuryк эlthough this value even exceeds the maximum Holocene markи it isи in terms of another important ок эccording to the most extreme of themи the global average temperature will increase by с °я over the current centuryи which has never occurred not only during the history of civilizationи but also over the past рм million years on the wholeк яhapter нуц World Energy эnd яlimate | псу Figure 6 Carbon dioxide concentration change: model simulations by the emission scenarios of the (1) ‘clean’ and (2) ‘coal’ global energy development of the present work, model simulation (3) (from Klimenko, V. V., Klimenko, A. V., and Tereshin, 2001) and data of instrumental measurements (4) and ice-cores (5) (Solomon et al., 2007). Figure 7 Global average temperature change (compared with the 1951–1980 mean): model simulation and forecasts for the ‘clean’ (1) and ‘coal’ (2) energy scenarios of the present work; and (3) instrumental data (see Solomon et al. 2007). criterion дtemperature change rateеи probably within the adaptation limits of the bioй sphereк Simulation of the implementation of the ‘clean’ scenario similar in goals to those of the Kyoto Protocol дFigure уе shows that the measures suggested by this inй ternational agreement for climate stabilizationи even though they cannot much affect the dynamics of the global average temperatureи will still help to reduce the global warming by мкп °як э comparison of the ‘clean’ and ‘coal energy’ scenarios дFigure уи псф | Klimenko в Tereshin curves н and ои respectivelyе shows that the meeting of the Kyoto Protocol targets can favor a more environmentally safe energy developmentк Local climate changes are expected to be quite diverseк Our survey for various parts of Russia дsee Klimenkoи оммуч Khrustalev et al., оммфч Klimenko в Mikushinaи оммсе showed that in the nearest decades the average annualи winterи and spring temperatures will appreciably increaseи whichи in its turnи will affect a number of apй plied climate characteristics crucial for different economy sectorsк Thusи a shorter and warmer cold period will require less fuel for heating дdown нс б from the present level by омсме дsee Klimenkoи оммуек Positive changes in transport and agriculture are also expectedи whichи tooи will decrease the required energy consumptionк Probablyи permafrost areas are the most vulnerable to climate changes and will require huge adй ditional investments in the existing infrastructure дsee Khrustalev et al., оммфек э comparison of temperature and precipitation fields for present warming and other historically warm periods which are useful analogs for the expected warmingи such as the эtlantic Holocene Optimum дabout у–т thousand calendar years agoе and the Medieval Warm Epoch дthe late ninthйtwelfth centuriesе дsee Klimenkoи оммни оммреи shows that considerable temperature changes may occur only in several counй tries of the Northern hemisphereк Thusи considerably increased average annual temй peratures are observedи along with Russiaи only in яanadaи the Northern part of the USэ and Middle and яentral эsiaи whereas the temperature changes in Europeи Southй East of the USэи and most part of яhina and India are either inconsiderable or even negativeк These changes will almost everywhere be accompanied by enhanced preй cipitationи except for the North East of the USэи the Mediterraneanи eastern Provinces of яhina and SouthйEast States of Indiaи where a certain desiccation takes placeк Howeverи the scenarios of future climate changesи presented in other worksи are quite different up to catastrophic ones дFigure фек Thusи the most recent IPяя review дsee Solomon et al., оммуе does not exclude that the global average temperature may increase by с °я by the end of this centuryк Such a largeйscale global warming will entail irreversible environmental changes in most regions of the worldи including Rusй siaи andи as a resultи will have an extremely negative impact on all spheres of human activitiesк Undoubtedlyи the ecological pressure on economyи in particularи in terms of the Kyoto Protocolи is much dependent on whether these projections will be proved or disprovedк Provided the catastrophic forecasts are disprovedи further tightening of Kyoto constraints will be less likelyк эt the same timeи if things follow an unfavorable scenarioи further consolidation of the environmental protection community should be яhapter нуц World Energy эnd яlimate | псх expectedк Howeverи we have to repeat that the results of our longйterm research proй vide firm evidence in favor of moderate scenarios of global climate changesк Thusи our early forecasts дsee Klimenko et al., нххрч Klimenkoи нххуе of global cliй mate changes are still validи whichи by the wayи evidenced by the fact that they fully represent the actual data for the past two decades дsee Klimenkoи Vк Vки Klimenkoи эк Vки в Tereshinи оммнч Klimenko в Tereshinи омнмек эccording to this forecastи we expect that the global average temperature will increase by another н–нкс °я over the course of the current century дFigures у and феи which falls below the range of IPяя estimates for possible atmosphere and climate changes дsee Solomon et al., оммуеи even includй ing scenarios assuming the world population decrease дюнеи and is five times below the possible temperature rise due to the extreme scenarios group энFIи which expects the most intensive growth of fossil fuel consumptionк Neverthelessи the expected warming is far beyond the range of the natural variability of global climateи recorded in palaeoclimatic data over the past окс thousand years дsee Klimenkoи оммни оммреч howeverи the warming rate дabout мкн °я per decadeе appears to be within the adaptaй tion limits of the biosphere дKlimenko в Tereshinи омнмек It can be concluded that both the warming expected to occur by the late twentyйfirst century and the increase in the atmospheric яOо concentration will only slightly exceed the scale of global changes that have already occurred over the past centuryк Figure 8 Global average temperature change (compared with the 1951–1980 mean): (1) instrumental observations data (see Solomon et al. 2007); (2) model simulation and forecasts by the (2) ‘coal’ energy scenario of the present work and IPCC scenarios (Ibid.): (3) B1, (4) B2, and (5) A1FI. Temperature levels of the Medieval Warm Epoch (MWE) (see Klimenko 2001) and Cold Subatlantic Epoch (SA) (see Klimenko, 2004) are also indicated. птм | Klimenko в Tereshin T CONCLUSIONS he time passed after the publication of the first results of the application of the genetic approach to forecasting future energy use showed that this approach gives encouraging resultsк Our early forecasts of world energy consumption repй resent the actual data for the last ом years remarkably wellк The development of the method of historical extrapolation to assess the future global fuel mix allowed us to develop the perspective energy balance for the current centuryи in which the key role of fossil fuels will hold up to at least омтм–омтск This historical scenario of global energy consumption is completely provided by the available resources of fossil fuel and does not contradict the assessments of proй spective development of nonйfossil energy sourcesк эn implementation of the historical scenario of energy development is expected to cause moderate atmosphere and climate changes which are quite comparable with the scale of global changes that have already occurred over the past centuryк Local manifestations of expected climate changes will be very diverseк Thusи in the nearest decades in moderate and high latitudes we can expect a shorter and warmer cold periodи as well as appreciable destructive phenomena in the permafrost zone of the Russian territoryк T ACKNOWLEDGEMENT he study was supported by the Russian Ministry of Education and Science in the framework of the Federal Program ‘Scientific and Educational Staff of Innovative Russia’к REFERENCES юP Statistical Review of World Energy оммхк Londonц юPи оммхк URLц httpцллwwwкbpкcomл statistical reviewк Demographic Yearbook оммтк New Yorkц UNи оммхк Energy and Nuclear Power Planning in Developing яountriesк Techк Repк Serк орск Viennaц Intк эtomic Energy эgencyи нхфск Energy Statistics Yearbook оммтк New Yorkц UNи оммхк International Energy эnnual оммтк Energy Information эdministrationк Washingtonи Dк якц Department of Energyи оммхк яhapter нуц World Energy эnd яlimate | птн International Energy Outlook оммхк Washingtonи Dкякц DOEлEIэи оммхк Khrustalevи Lк Nки Klimenkoи Vк Vки Emelyanovaи Lк Vк et al. оммфк Dynamics of Permafrost Temperature in Southern Regions of яryolithozone under Different Scenarios of яlimate яhangeк Kriosfera Zemli ноднец п–ннк In Russianк Klimenkoи Vк Vк нххрк эn Influence of яlimatic and Geographical яonditions on the Level of Energy яonsumptionк Physicsк Doklady пхдннец уху–фммк Klimenkoи Vк Vк нххук Why яarbon Dioxide Emission should not be яontrolledк Thermal Engineering ррдоец фс–фхк Klimenkoи Vк Vк оммнк яlimate of the Medieval Warm Epoch in the Northern Hemisphereк Moscowц MEI Publк In Russianк Klimenkoи Vк Vк оммрк яold яlimate of the Early Subйэtlantic Epoch in the Northern Hemisphereк Moscowц MEI Publк In Russianк Klimenkoи Vк Vк оммук яlimate яhange Impact on the Heat Demand in Russiaк Energiya оц о–фк In Russianк Klimenkoи Vк Vки Fedorovи Mк Vки эndreichenkoи Tк Nки and Mikushinaи Oк Vк нххрк яlimate on the юorder of Millenniaк Vestnik MEI пц нмп–нмфк In Russianк Klimenkoи Vк Vки and Klimenkoи эк Vк нххмк Will Energy Development Result in яlimatic яollapseы Teploenergetika нмц т–ннк In Russianк Klimenkoи Vк Vки Klimenkoи эк Vки эndreichenkoи Tк Nк et al. нххук Energyи Natureи and яlimateк Moscowц MEI Publк In Russianк Klimenkoи Vк Vки Klimenkoи эк Vки and Tereshinи эк Gк оммнк Power Engineering and the яlimate on the Eve of the New яenturyц Forecasts and Realityк Thermal Engineering рфднмец фср– фтнк Klimenkoи Vк Vки and Mikushinaи Oк Vк оммск History and Projection of яlimate яhange in the юarents and Kara Seas юasinк Geoecologiya нц рп–рхк In Russianк Klimenkoи Vк Vки Mikushinaи Oк Vки and Tereshinи эк Gк нхххк Do We Really Need a яarbon Taxы эpplied Energy трц пнн–пнтк Klimenkoи Vк Vки and Tereshinи эк Gк омнмк World Energy and Global яlimate юeyond онммк Teploenergetika ноц пф–ррк In Russianк Nakicenovicи Nки Grublerи эки and McDonaldи эк нххфк дEdsкек Global Energy Perspectivesк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Nakicenovicи Nки and Swartи Rк омммк дEdsкек Special Report on Emissions Scenariosк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Northи Dк як нххмк Institutionsи Institutional яhange and Economic Performanceк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Snytinи Sк Yuки Klimenkoи Vк Vки and Fedorovи Mк Vк нххрк э Forecast of Energy яonsumption and яarbon Dioxide Emission into the эtmosphere for the Period until онммк Physics – Reports пптдрец рсу–ртмк пто | Klimenko в Tereshin Solomonи Sки Qinи Dки Manningи Mк et al. оммук яlimate яhange оммуц The Physical Science юasisк яontribution of Working Group I to the Fourth эssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on яlimate яhangeк яambridgeц яambridge University Pressк Toynbeeи эк Jк нхффк э Study of Historyк Londonц Oxford University Pressк World Energy Outlook оммфк Parisц OEяDлIEэи оммфк World Population Prospectsц The оммф Revisionк New Yorkц UNи оммхк WEя Survey of Energy Resourcesк Londonц World Energy яouncilи оммнк яhapter нуц World Energy эnd яlimate | птп Chapter 18 WILL THE GLOBAL CRISIS LEAD TO GLOBAL TRANSFORMATIONS? Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev This article analyzes some important aspects of the world socioeconomic and political development in the near future. The future always stems from the present. The first part of the article analyzes the global causes of the contemporary crisis and the possibilities to eliminate the most acute problems that have generated this crisis. The authors believe that in some respects the global financial system, notwithstanding all its negative points, still performs certain important positive functions including the ‘insurance’ of social guaranties on a global scale. New financial technologies decrease the risks in a rather effective way, they expand possibilities to attract and accumulate enormous capitals, actors, and markets. The modern financial sector also contributes to the insurance for social funds on a global scale. The participation of pension and insurance funds in financial operations leads to the globalization of social sphere. The countries poor in capital, but with large cohorts of young population, are involved more and more in a very important (though not quite apparent) process of supporting the elderly portion of population in the West through the vigorous unification of the world’s financial flows, their standardization, and by increasing global mobility and anonymity. The second part of the article considers some global scenarios of the World System’s future and describes several characteristics and forecasts of the forthcoming ‘Epoch of New Coalitions’. Among the problems analyzed in this paper are the following: What are the implications of the economic weakening of the USA as the World System center? Will the future World System have a leader? Will it experience a global governance deficit? Will the world fragmentation increase? Keywords: global crisisи global financial systemи financial revolutionи financial techй nologiesи pension fundsи social fundsи mediumйlength economic cyclesи Juglar cyclesи яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | птс international orderи the World Systemи World System leaderи global hegemonyи centerи peripheryи global governanceи national sovereigntyк GLOBAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CRISIS AND THE NECESSITY OF CHANGES T he global crisis that has somehow sobered down дat least for some timeе those who believed that in this century global development would proceed without crisesи appears to be fading away дthough the threat of one more wave of criй sis does not seem to have disappeared entirelyек The world economy in general has moved from the phase of recession to the phase of depressionи and there seem to apй pear some indications suggesting certain movement toward the recovery phase in a number of countriesк Howeverи in Europe one can hardly notice any signs of recoveryк To a certain degree the growth rates slow down also in яhinaи India and some other developing countries for which the global crisis was not as di cult as it was for the countries of the WorldйSystem coreк This implies that we can look at the causes дas well as proximate and ultimate consequencesе of the deepest дwithin the last ус yearsе economic crisis in a way somehow different from that of four years agoк The history of economic crises suggests that each of them was connected with the type of relationships within the World Systemкн Howeverи the strongest crises also changed in a rather significant way the World System structureи the connecting lines of this systemк The current global financialйeconomic crisis is also likely to contribute to the beginning of the process of major changes in the World System structure and functioningи as well as in the principles of the international relations in the forthcomй ing decadesк In the first part of article we analyze the global causes of the contempoй rary crisis and both the negative role of the world financial flows and their important positive functions including the ‘insurance’ of social guaranties at the global scaleк The second part of the paper is devoted to the analysis of probable future transformations in connection with the crisis and to estimating the probabilities of various scenarios in the development of the World System during the forthcoming decadesк нк The worldйsystem approach originated in the нхтмs and нхумs due to the work by Fernand юraudelи эndre Gunder Frankи Immanuel Wallersteinи Samir эminи and Giovanni эrrighi дюraudelи нхупч Frankи нххми нххпч Frank в Gillsи нххпч Wallersteinи нхфуч яhaseйDunn в Hallи нххри нххуч эrrighi в Silverи нхххч эmin et alки оммтек The term World Systemлworldйsystem is used rather widely and not by worldй system analysts onlyк For more detail on the history and contents of ‘the World System’ notion see Grinin в Korotayevи оммхaц х–нхч оммхbк птт | Grinin в Korotayev 1. Global causes of the global crisis The growth and deepening of financialйeconomic globalization has led to the unprecй edented development of a number of countries and regions in the last decade дsee eкgки Maddisonи оммуи омнмч World юankи омноеч yetи it has also caused some crisesк That is why the current crisis may be considered as the reverse side of globalization дsee Grininи оммфcч омноек It is quite natural that the causes and character of the current crisis will be a subй ject of attentive research for quite a long timeк Howeverи it is quite evident that the main factors causing the crisis have not disappearedк эlso many problems have been just temporarily dampened by an unprecedented pumping of funds that can be only justified as an extraordinary measure that can worsen the situation in the futureк That is why there are some grounds to expect a new outburst of the crisis in the near future дwithin п–с yearsек In the meantimeи there is a considerable probability that the stronй gest manifestations of the crisis will be felt most distinctly in the fast growing эsian economies that have suffered rather moderately from the current crisisк Similar situaй tionsи with a similar asynchrony during the strongest crises with respect to Europe and North эmericaи were observed in the late нхth century and the early омth century дsee eкgки Lescureи нхмуч Tuganйюaranovskyи нхсри оммф [нхнп]ек The major changes in the global division of labor between countries are associй ated with the most important causes of the crisisко One of the most salient points here is that the countries of the World System center дespecially the UK and USэе have developed their financial sector in the most active wayкп In the meantimeи the semipeй ripheral countries have been more actively developing the ‘real economy’к эs a resultи in the Western economies the GDP share produced by the financial sector reaches between a quarter and a third of the total GDPи exceeding the share produced by inй dustryк In generalи within the world economy дdue to the West’s ability to accumulate the world capitalsи as well as because of the formation and diffusion of new financial technologiesе the financial sector has been growing faster than the other sectors durй ing the last three decadesк эs a resultи the financial sector has transformed from a secй tor serving the economyи into a sector producing the main vector of its developmentч thus it has become a sector where an immense share of added value is producedк Such a division of labor has a number of important consequencesк Western countries ок For more detail on the causes of the crisisи as well as on the development of new financial technoloй gies see Grininи оммфcи оммх и оммхcч Grinin в Korotayevи омнмч Grininи Korotayevи в Malkovи омнмк пк The World System core countries may be identified as the high income OEяD countries that include ор out of пм members of this organization and that produce тм б of all the world GDPк яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пту become not only the world capital accumulation centerи they also become net importй ers of capitalsк In these countries one can observe a phenomenon of deindustrializationк On the contraryи one can observe a fast industrial growth in the semiperipheral countriesкр This has appreciably contributed to the development of the situation when the growth rates in such developing economies—eкgки the юRIяS members and some other semiй peripheral countries—are significantly higher than in the Westк In the semiperipheral countries one can observe a particularly fast growth of the export sectorsи whereas the USэ and some other core countries become more and more the world center of consumption whose demand determines to a considerable extent the prosperity of semiperipheral and peripheral economiesк Thusи in general we can observe the decline of the role of the West as an industrialйeconomic center of the World Systemк On the other handи this is accompanied by the growth of its importance as an importer of commodities and capitalsч correspondinglyи the economic role of the semiperiphery дin generalи and certain semiperipheral centersи in particularе growsч yetи their econoй my becomes more and more dependent on the ability of the West to consumeк The consumption economy has become an imperative not only for the Westи but for the whole World System дsee eкgки Wolfи оммсек эn anarchic and extremely rapid development of new financial centersи financial currents and technologies дthat has secured a fast growth of the financial sectorе has also contributed in an extremely significant way to the genesis of the global financialй economic crisisк Their negative role has been amplified by the lack of transparency with respect to many financial instruments and institutesи which led to the actual obй scuring of risks and to the general underestimation of global risks дKudrin оммхц х–нмч see also Suetinи оммхч Grigoriev в Salikhovи оммфек It should be noted that the aspiration for risk дwhich is usually characterized as a positive quality feature of an entrepreneur’s psychologyе should be reconsidered in the context of globalizationк If the financiers дand finally other businessmenе consider the whole world to be a sphere for possible investmentи and thusи given this condiй tionи risks are counted in trillions of dollarsи then to risk or not to risk stops being just a question of personal choice for individual entrepreneurs and firmsк эn adventurous inclination for risk дwhose consequences could produce a fatal influence on the whole global economyе becomes a very dangerous featureк яonsequentlyи it becomes necй рк Some analysts maintain that relative wealth is flowing now from the World System center to its semiй periphery дNational Intelligence яouncilи оммфеи howeverи the opposite view is more wideйspreadк птф | Grinin в Korotayev essary to control activities of such global entrepreneurs дfor more detail on the crisis psychology see Grininи оммхbек 2. Why have classical features of previous economic crises manifested in the current crisis? The global causes of the contemporary crisis have led to an unexpected effect—we observe within it some classical features of the cyclical crises of the нхth and early омth centuries that appeared to have been eliminatedк яrises in their classical form дas unexpected and even unexplainable economic collapses occurring against the backdrop of unprecedented florescenceи growth of profits and pricesе were typical for that period of timeк Laterи in the second half of the омth century дin a direct connecй tion with an active countercyclical interference of the stateе the cyclical crises became much weaker and less pronouncedк Let us recollect that mediumйlength economic cycles with a characteristic period of у–нн years дthat go through the upswing phase turning into the overheating subй phaseи and ending with a crisisлcollapseлrecession and depressionе are also known as Juglar cyclesкс Such cycles were typically characterized by fast дsometimes even exploй siveе booms дthat implied a great strain on the economic systemе followed by even faster collapsesк The period of upswingи followed by boom and overheatingи was acй companied дaе by a fast and inadequate growth of prices of raw materials and real estate objectsч дbе by an excessive demand for credit funds and investment expansion beyond any reasonable limitsч дcе by outbursts of speculations with commodity and stock assetsч дdе by enormous increase in risky operationsк эll these are vivid features of the Juglar cycle that were described many times in studies produced by represenй tatives of various schools of economic thought дsee eкgки Juglarи нфтои нффхч Lescureи нхмуч Tuganйюaranovskyи нхсри оммф [нхнп]ч Marxи нххп [нфхпи нфхр]ч Mendelsonи нхсх–нхтрч Hilferdingи нхфн [нхнм]ч Keynesи нхптч Hicksи нхрт [нхпх]ч Minskyи оммсч Samuelson в Nordhausи оммси оммхч Haberlerи нхтр [нхпу]ч see also Grininи Korotayevи вMalkovи омнмч Grinin в Korotayevи омнмек эll these features have been observed in the current crisisк Our analysis has also demonstrated that almost at every upswing phase a new financial technology дor a new type of financial assetsте acquires a special significance ск They were denoted as Juglar cycles after яlément Juglar днфнх–нхмсеи who was one of the first to demonstrate the periodicalи regularи cyclical character of economic crisesч though a number of econoй mists дincluding Karl Marxе studied the economic cycles simultaneously with Juglarк тк In the нхth century for some time this role was played by railway shares whose use made it possible яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | птх дon the appearance of new financial technologies during new economic cycles see Grinin в Korotayevи омнмек эbrupt transitions from booms to collapses were connectй ed with spontaneous economic development that was regulated by market forces and almost by nothing elseи as state interference into the economic development was not su cientк Under these conditions дagainst the background of the presence of gold standardе acute crises became inevitableку Karl Marx had already considered the anй archic character of development inherent in a capitalist economy дagainst the backй ground of the economic agents’ urge towards the expansion of supplyе as the main cause of the economic crisesк эs a result of the Great Depression the role of the state in regulating the economy changedк Due to various direct and indirect ways of influencing the macroeconomй ic framework of national economic development it became possible for the state to minimize dramatic distortions of booms and bustsкф эs a resultи the crises became far less pronounced than beforeк Howeverи the global causes of the current crisis have made those Keynesian monй etary methods of economic regulation дthat are effective at the scale of a single counй tryе ineffective at the global levelк The world economy is being transformed into a single systemи but technologies of the countercyclical management at the World Sysй tem scale have not yet been worked outк Nationйstates wage a tense competition for higher growth rates дand the question of possible limitation of those rates is not even discussedек Respectivelyи in the absence of the necessary level of controlи the features of anarchic and arrhythmic development of nonйregulated market economy become more and more salient at the World System levelк This implies a certain systemic simiй larity between the functioning of unregulated national economy and the one of the modern global economyк We believe that this similarity accounts for the recurrence of on a number of occasions to expand dramatically credit and speculationи overheating the economyк ук Thusи with the overexpansion of credit and the swelling of financial assets the amount of money substitutes дsharesи promissory notesи bondsи etcке expanded enormously дnumerous proponents of the important role of supernormal credit belong to the soйcalled эustrian schoolи eкgки Misesи нхфн [нхно]ч Hayekи нхпни нхппек эs a resultи with the decrease of trust in those stocks a sudden demand for gold and cash grew so dramatically that it was able to crash the whole banking system дsee eкgки Tookeи нфпф–нфсуч Evansи нхтх [нфсх]ч Juglarи нфтои нффхч Lescureи нхмуч Tuganйюaranovskyи нхсри оммф [нхнп]ек фк It became possible to put speculation under some controlк For exampleи after the Great Depression in the USэи the GlassйSteagall эct was passedи forbidding banksи investment firms and insurance comй panies to speculate at stock exchanges дseeц Lanи нхутч Samuelson в Nordhausи оммси оммхч Suetinи оммхц рнек In нххх in the USэ the law on financial services modernization was passedи which annulled the GlassйSteagall эct that was in force for more than тм years дseeц Suetinи оммхц рнек эs a basis for introducing the law on financial services modernizationи it has been claimed that эmerican credit orgaй nizations are inferior to foreign rivalsи especially European and Japanese ‘universal banks’ which were not subject to such limitations дGreenspanи оммуек пум | Grinin в Korotayev some features of cyclical crises of the earlier epoch дsee Grininи оммхaи оммхcч Grinin в Korotayevи омнмч Grininи Korotayevи в Malkovи омнм for more detailек нк In many respects subjects of the international economy дbecause of a lack of development in the financial regulation of international lawе behave in a similar uncontrolled and anarchic manner as was observed earlier with respect to subjects of a national market дiкeки because of lack of development in economic regulation of national lawек эs they use floating courses of exchange in their accountsи this inevitably leads to sharp distortions in international tradeи devaluationsи defaultsи bankruptciesи etcк ок The urge of states and major corporations to attain maximum growth rates in the absence of any effective macroeconomic limitations leadsи at the level of the world economy and world financial systemи to consequences that are analogous to the ones that were produced by uncontrollable growth and competition for market share in the capitalist economies of the нхth and early омth centuriesц overheatingи ‘bubbles’и and collapseк пк In recent decadesи the movements of capitals between countries have become free дeкgки Held et al., нхххч Held в McGrewи оммпеч that isи they are rather weakly regulated by national law and are hardly regulated at all by international lawк This causes enormous impetuous movements of capitals that lead to very rapid upswings in some places and laterи with crisesи to sharp declinesк рк The development of the modern economy not only has been accompanied by the formation of new financial technologies but it has started to produce more and more added value precisely in the financial sphere дas financial servicesек This led to a sharp increase in the financial component of the crisis дin comparison with earlier decades when the main growth was observed in industryек 3. Financial speculation: does it have a positive side? Financial middlemen were cursed in all epochsк эnd there were always certain grounds to curse themк юut they exist and the modern economic system cannot reproduce itй self without themи as the modern market economy depends on financial middlemen in a rather significant wayи as they transform households’ savings into productive inй vestments дGreenspanи оммуек The activities of modern financial corporations and funds дwhich lead to the unй controlled growth of financial assets and anarchy in their movementsе are quite justly criticized дthis point will be discussed belowч see also Grininи оммфcи оммхaи оммхcч Grinin в Korotayevи омнмек Howeverи it would not be correct to maintain that modern яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пун financial technologies are fundamentally deleteriousи that they only lead the world economy to various troublesи that they are only beneficial to the financiers and specuй latorsк On the contraryи both the formation and the current development of the finanй cial sector are connected with the performance of very important functions—and just on a global scaleк Thusи the modern financial globalization should not only be cursedч it also has some positive sidesк Summing up the achievements of what is called ‘the financial revolution’ дsee Doroninи оммпч Mikhailovи омммч see also Held et al., нхххе we would provide our own version of the most important directions of the development of fiй nancial engineering дin addition to the computerization of this sphere of businessек We shall also try to specify the positive influence produced by themк Those directions can be described as followsц нк Powerful expansion of nomenclature of financial instruments and productsи which leads to the expansion of possibilities to choose the most convenient financial instrumentк ок Standardization of financial instruments and productsк This creates the possibility to calculate an abstract дthat isи an aggregateи unified measure based on a standard package of shares and other stocksе base дand not just concrete prices of concrete securitiesек This secures a considerable economy of time for those who use financial instrumentsч it makes it possible to purchase financial securities without a detailed analysis of particular stocksч this leads to an increase in the number of participants by an order of magnitudeкх пк Institutionalization of ways to minimize individual risksк In addition to the above mentioned expansion of nomenclature and assortment of financial productsи it appears especially important to mentionц firstи the development of special institutions—specialized clearing chambers—with their internal regulations дwhich makes it possible to avoid reliance on courts of lawеч secondи the use of special rules and computer softwareи various technologiesч andи thirdи new forms of risk hedgingк эll these changes help to minimize both the individual risks of unfulfilled deals and also of bankruptcies in the framework of certain stock marketsкнм хк This is similar to the situation with a wholesale purchase of a large batch of any standard commodity when the buyer has no need to examine every particular pieceк нмк Howeverи the expansion of the operations’ volume and their acceleration create a threat of global financial collapsesк пуо | Grinin в Korotayev рк Increase in number of participants and centers for the trade of financial instrumentsк Modern financial instruments have made it possible to include a great number of people through various special programsи mediatorsи and structuresкнн These changes result in the diffusion of technologies among the owners of capitals of various size дthis is similar to the development of jointй stock companies that made it possible to accumulate enormous capitalsек It is also possible to observe a significant increase in the number of financial centers and their specializationи as well as in the interconnection of national and world financial centersк It is also extremely important that we observe the growth of the number of emitters of various financial derivativesкно The significance of the changes outlined above for the financial sector on the global stage can be described as followsц • Enormous new capitalsи actorsи markets are accumulated and engagedи which creates a ‘difference of potentials’ which is necessary for the activization of an economy to attract capitals and investorsк • Due to enormous growth in the volumes of operationsи we observe the emergence of possibilities to extract profits from such operationsи from which it was impossible to extract any profits earlierк Thusи a firm could earn just п cents from reйselling one shareи but it may reйsell millions of such shares every day—and what is moreи it may reйsell the same shares dozens of times within the same day дsee яallahan оммоекнп One may compare this with the industrial concentration of lowйgrade oresи whose processing was not profitable before the invention of respective technologiesк • The growth of diversity of financial productsи the development of specialization in the production of financial servicesи and the increase in nomenclature of those services make it possible to smooth the demand fluctuations and to increase the general volume of sales дin factи the growth of nomenclature of products gives the same results within any branch of economyекнр ннк The Foreign Exchange Market дFOREXе is the most famous among themк нок This is similar to the growth of the number of commodity producers with the growth of the network of units selling and servicing respective commoditiesк нпк It is quite natural that this is most relevant for the upswing phasesи whereas this is observed to a much smaller дbut not zeroе degree during recessionsк нрк We believe that the trend toward the maximum standardization of the contract conditions has consequences that are similar to the ones produced by the standardization in manufacturingц in both cases the use of standards expands the sphere of the use of respective technologies and products by an order of magnitudeк яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пуп • Financial currents and financial centers start to structure the world economy in a new wayк The market economy is always structured along certain modes of communicationsк One may recollect how railway construction not only altered the transportation of commodities but also changed the whole organization of economic lifeк Within modern information economy the financial currents start playing a role of such systemйcreating communicationsк In those zones where we observe the most important financial currentsи we may also observe the most intensive economic lifeк Small financial streams дlikeи beforeи small streams of commodities along the railwaysе create a new economic networkк • The new structure makes it possible for the periphery to participate actively in the world economyк It is quite clear that the spontaneous movement of capital can lead to collapses and global crisesч yetи the same was observed in the нхth century when the vigorous railroad construction дaccompanied by unprecedented speculationsе led first to enormous upswingsи andи laterи to collapsesк Thusи the main task is to put the most dangerous and unpredictable actions under controlк 4. Financial currents as the world pension fund? Our research has made it possible to detect such global functions of the world finanй cial sector that do not seem to have been noticed by analystsк Those functions have developed in conditions of currency not guaranteed by gold and they are connected with the necessity to protect savings in conditions of inflation against losses and risks during long periods of timeк They emerged as an unintended consequence of the radical transformations in the world financial system that began in the нхумsк эt that time the world financial system finally rejected the gold monetary standard as a result of the double devaluation of dollar and the collapse of the юretton Woods monetary systemк The price of gold was no longer tied to the dollar even nominallyи it became freeи whereas the currency exchange rate became floatingк Howeverи as a result of the rejection of the golden standard the function of savй ings’ protection moved finally from an ‘independent’ guarantor дiкeки precious metalsе to the stateкнс Howeverи there was no state leftи on which the capital owners could rely нск Naturallyи the value of gold and silver could fluctuateк One can easily recollect the soйcalled price revolution of the нтth centuryи as a result of which the prices grew four times дeкgки Goldstoneи нхффи нххнек юut there has never been a single case when gold or silver lost their value momentouslyи or when their prices dropped close to zero дthis eventually happens with prices of sharesеи whereas in the нхth and early омth centuries дwhen many states applied the gold standard [Held et alки нххх]е the value of money was sometimes surprisingly stable for long periods of time дthe same is true for prices of many key commoditiesеи and this allowed many people to live from the interest rates of their savй пур | Grinin в Korotayev Figure 1 Number of pensioners per 100 working age adults in developed countries, 1985–2050. entirely as on a perfectly secure guarantorк One should add to thisи the growth of inflaй tion that especially bothered the West in the нхумs and нхфмsк One should note that it was during the нхтмs and нхумs that the volume of ‘social capitals’ in the direct sense дiкeки various pensionи socialи insurance fundsи including the medical insurance fundsе grew very significantly in direct connection with active social legislationи the growth of the quality of lifeи and some demographic processes дfirst of allи the coming to age of the numerous babyйboom generationек There were some other important sources for the growth of capitals in the нхумs and нхфмsи in addition to the aboveйmentioned onesк The general volume of capitals also grew due to the petrodollarsи the increase in the emission of stocksи and borrowing дincluding the sovereign borrowingекнт In genй eralи since that time one may observe the process of rapid growth of the volume of free capitals that should be invested somewhereк ingsк It made it possible to rely on savings in the form of goldлsilver coins to guarantee one’s survival in old age or for any emergenciesк Incidentallyи this was a very important basis for the development of thriftinessк Today prices of precious metals are as unstable as the ones of any other assetsи and the magnitude of their fluctuations is greatк нтк Many years later some other sources were added to theseч for exampleи the so called state inй vestment funds дnational development fundsе that accumulated resources obtained by states through some superйprofits дstemmingи for exampleи from the exportation of oilе and invested them in financial markets abroadк эt present a few dozen of states have such funds дNational Intelligence яouncilи оммфек яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пус With inflation the question of where to invest capitals and funds not guaranteed by gold or hard currency becomes extremely importantк This is especially relevant for capitals accumulated by pension fundsи as their designation is to be found dozens of years later preserved and multipliedк Thusи it was necessary to find new ways to guarй antee the preservation and multiplication of capitalsк The actual abandonment of the gold standard led to the transformation of not only the world monetary systemи but also to the transformation of the financial econй omy and all financial technologyк The sharp increase in the quantity of capitalsи the neй cessity to preserve them from inflation and to find their profitable application objecй tively pushed the financial market actors to look for new forms of financial activitiesк эs a resultи one could observe the rapid growth of volumes of financial operationsи the number of financial assetsи objectsи instrumentsи and productsк Some new instruments were already available at that timeи and it became possible to apply them rapidly on a wide scale дsee Grininи оммх и оммхcч Grinin в Korotayevи омнм for more detailек э factor greatly contributing to all thatи was nothing else but the informationйcomputer revolution that occurred simultaneously with the financial revolution and that became a solid material basisк Thusи in contrast with precious metals дthat retained their value even if they were not invested in anythingе the modern capitals do not have such an anchorч no fortune Figure 2 Assets under management of various types of funds. пут | Grinin в Korotayev Figure 3 Young population of more and less developed regions, mlns, 1950–2010. can be accumulated in a monetary form without serious risk of a rather fast loss of a substantial part of its value дsee eкgки Movchanи омнмц рхек That is why if capitals just lie still дas gold in treasuriesеи they risk to degrade gradually into ‘dust’к What are the possible sources of their preservation and growth—andи henceи what are the possibiliй ties of the fulfillment of respective financial obligations дas well as social obligations connected with themеы The first point is a system of dynamic movements of capitalsи continuous change of their formsи the engagement of new peopleи mediatorsи and services that allow them to be preserved and multipliedк The faster the movements and transformations of financial objectsи the better the preservation of capitalsк The second point is the distribution of risks at the global scaleк We observe the growth of opportunities to distribute risks among a larger number of participants and countriesи to transform a relatively small number of initial financial objects into a very яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пуу large number of financial productsк This makes it possible to achieve the maximum diversification by letting people choose convenient forms of financial products and to change them whenever necessaryк That is why derivative financial instruments beй come more and more derivativeи they acquire more and more modified forms that become more and more distant from the initial monetary oneкну The third point is the growth of specialization дincluding various forms of deposit insuranceе that supports diversification and the possibilities for expansionк The additional importance of the world finances’ functions—with respect to the preservation and multiplication of savings in pensionи insuranceи and social funds—is amplified every year by a very significant дandи in some senseи globalе process of the finalization of the second phase of demographic transition in Western countries and Japan дsee eкgки Korotayevи Malkovи в Khaltourinaи оммтек It is well known that as a reй sult of this process the natural population growth rates declined in those countries to values that are close or even below zeroч depopulation began in a number of develй oped countriesи a rather rapid population aging is observedи whereas the proportion of pensioners in total population tends to increase in a rather dramatic wayкнф The forecasts suggest a further acceleration of this processк In омнми one can observe н pensioner per р workingйage adultsи whereas in омоси according to forecastsи there will be less than п workingйage adult per pensioner in the developed countries дNaй tional Intelligence яouncil оммфеи and there are even more pessimistic forecasts дsee eкgки Meliantsevи оммхц пмекнх Who will be filling the pension funds in the futureи who will fulfill the social obligations with respect to hundreds of millions of elderly votersы Note meanwhile thatи in addition to the overall growth of the number of pensionersи one can also observe simultaneously the increase in volumeи complexityи and value of respective obligations дin particularи health care servicesек Indeedи within such a contextи against the background of the slowdown of the economic growth in the West and the threatening growth of state debts in many deй нук One should take into account that pension fundsи insurance companies etcк act as institutional inй vestors and owners within many corporations that invest in numerous stocks and projectsч this way the finances of the world have been so mixed up that it is di cult to comprehend whom exactly these particular funds belong toи whether they are ‘good’и or ‘toxic’к нфк It is not coincidental that one of the main concerns of эlan Greenspan дabout which he writes in his book [омму]е is connected with the point that the numerous generation of babyйboomers will become pensioners soonи whereas the extant financial sources are not su cient for the complete fulfillment of social obligations with respect to themк нхк The dramatic change of the ratio of pensioners to the working age adults may be illustrated with the following dataц in нхсм in the USэ the ratio of pensioners to working age adults was нцнт while in midйомммs it was нцпи iкeки it had changed fivefold дMeliantsevи оммхц пмек пуф | Grinin в Korotayev veloped countriesи the guarantees of pension дand other social insuranceе payments do not look perfectly secureк Here one should take into account the point that most pension funds are concenй trated not in the state pension fundsи but in thousands of private дnonйstateе pension funds that are very active as regards the search for the most secure and profitable inй vestmentsк Pension funds are important shareholders of listed and private companiesк They are especially important to the stock market where large institutional investors dominateк The amounts of money concentrated in pension funds are enormousк The Economist дJanuary нуи оммфе reported that Morgan Stanley estimates that дprivately managedе pension funds worldwide hold over US аом trillion in assetsи the largest for any category of investor—ahead of mutual fundsи insurance companiesи currency reй servesи sovereign wealth fundsи hedge fundsи or private equityком Soи in sumи at the world scale pension and other social funds’ total volume of money is counted in dozens trillion dollarsк Note that we are dealing here not with some financial derivatives or bad debtsи butи in generalи with honestly earned money accumulated over three to five decades that constitute a working lifeк Thusи accordй ing to some calculationsи the volume of the эmerican pension funds can be estimated for the moment of the start of the world financial crisis as about нм trillion US dollars дShtefanи оммфеи which is comparable with the total size of the US GDP дsee эntolinи оммфц уек The crisis led to tangible losses and even bankruptcies of many of those fundsкон How to make the preservation of those resources secureы It is easy to seeи that security is a rather relative notionк The best shares can suddenly turn out to be insecureи the same goes with respect to the apparently best sharesи real estateи and even state obliй gationsк The OEяD estimates the losses of pension funds in OEяD countries to be аскр trillion or about ом percent of the value of assets in these countries in оммф дHinz et al., омнмц пч эntolín в Stewartи оммхек In оммфи the Russian State Pension Fund lost нм billion roubles because of drop in rate of these obligations дNaumovи оммфек It seems that within a single developed country it becomes more and more di cult to achieve a su cient level of the security of pension fundsк омк юy the end of оммси total assets held by privately managed pension funds in the оп countries covй ered in this study amounted to over USа нс trillion дэntolinи оммфц тек онк эt the end of оммфи when economies throughout the world were spinning into recessionи many stock markets saw gains of the past decade completely wiped outк The value of pension fund equity holdings in the United States alone fell by ар trillion over оммх дJohnson в de Graafи оммхек яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пух In the meantime in the developing countries we observe enormous numbers of young adultsч and it is extremely di cult to provide all of them with jobs and educaй tionк It is impossible to solve this task without an active integration of the peripheral economies into the World System economyи without the diffusion of capitals and techй nologies from the World System coreи whereas such integration cannot be achieved without the development of the world financial systemк In the meantime the number of pensioners in the developing countries is still relatively smallи the social obligations with respect to them are relatively lowи and only after a significant period of time the problem of the pensioners’ support will become acute in those countriesк эgainst this backgroundи the world monetary resources have already begun to take part in solving this social problem дthoughи naturallyи they are unable to solve it completelyек It appears that the redistribution of capitals throughout the whole world and the distribution of risks through investments in the diverse assets of developing countries дthrough numerous mediators and specialized fundsе actually creates for the borrowersлrecipients from the developing countries дiкeки those countries with a high proportion of young adults in their populationе financial obligations that multiply the invested capitals within rather long periods of timeк эnd those multiplied capitals will be potentially used for the payment of pensions and other social obligations in the creditor countriesкоо The developing countries are very interested in attracting capitals that create jobs for the numerous cohorts of young adultsк э considerable part of requested capitals come from pensionи insuranceи and social funds of the developed countriesк In other wordsи to some extent the young adults of Indiaи Indonesiaи юrazilи or Egypt will be working indirectly to support the elderly population of the core counй triesк Thusи those countries that are rich in demographic resourcesи but that are poor in capitals are involved more and more in an extremely important дthough not quite apparent at the surfaceе process through which they participate in the support of the elderly population cohorts living in the core countries through the vigorous unificaй tion of the world financial currentsи its standardizationи and increasing global mobility and anonymityкоп оок One may recall how the financial obligations of the USэ дthat had been forming for a very long period of time to fund various private projectsе became quite unexpectedly an additional factor for the victory of the creditor countries of the Triple Entente in World War Iк This was a large debt of the USэ with respect to France and юritain that made it possible for them to get vitally important supplies in return for the redemption of that debt дthrough rather complex financial schemesек опк This may resemble the situation in юritain in the early омth century when the revenues derived from пфм | Grinin в Korotayev In other wordsи global finances not only integrate capitals of the various regions of the worldи they also contribute to the solution of an extremely important social problemор—to support the numerous elderly population of the core countriesк Within such a context one can foresee a situation when a failure of one country would be regarded as a common failureк эctuallyи this outruns дand preparesе political and legal globalization in some very important respectsк Such interweaving of interests дas soon as it becomes evidentе will make the actors move more actively toward the institutionй alization of some financial and social relationshipsи toward a more rigorous control of financial currentsи toward the full security of financial technologiesк In other wordsи the modern financial assets and currents have become global and internationalи huge funds are circulating within this system дthoughи of courseи not all its participants extract equal profitsек Meanwhileи it is important to understand that a considerable percentage of the circulating sums are social дpension and insuranceе money whose loss may lead to disasters with such consequences that are very di cult to forecastкос Thusи a more secure management of the world capital has дin addition to its eviй dent economic and social dimensionsе such a dimension as the security of the future of pensioners and those in need of social protection дthere are certain respective inй surance systems at national levelsи but what could they mean in the situation of a global financial collapseыек Henceи the issue of the institutional support of the financial globalization becomes more and more importantк Howeverи one could wonder how many new crises are necessary in order that this problem would be solvedы the export of capitals helped to sustain a high level of life against the background of falling industrial growth ratesк In this period the revenues derived from landsи housesи state loansи foreign and colonial loans constituted just a bit less than a half of all the taxable national income дTuganйюaranovskyи оммф [нхнп]ц понек орк Note that this problem is apparently internal from the viewpoint of a single countryч howeverи it becomes more and more di cult to solve it in the framework of a single countryк оск The importance of accounting for useful functions дincluding social onesе of global money should warn us against various extremist statements such as ‘working in a bank does not deserve to be excesй sively wellйpaid … the society should not allow for people to become wealthy only because of their reй distributing financial means’ дfrom an interview with an eminent French economist Jacques эttali—see юykov et al., оммхц нмпек эll these recall hundred yearйold declarations that capitalists do not perform useful functions in productionк Indeedи as soon as the interest in enrichment through financial operaй tions disappearsи who will risk their capitalsы эnd what will happen to themы Howeverи this does not deny the necessity of accurate and consistent limitation of the extremes of speculations and excessive enrichmentsк эnd in this respect some ideas of Jacques эttali дin particularи his suggestion about a ‘newи this time globalи GlassйSteagall эct’ [ibid.]е look rather interestingк яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пфн 5. Feeling of the necessity of changes Today many specialists see that the main current problems of the world stock markets stem from the defects of their regulatory system дsee eкgки Doroninи оммпц нох–нпм for an analysis of their viewsеи though many specialists дif not most of themи at least in the United Statesе still believe that the problems of stock and financial markets stem from defects and imperfections of the national дrather than supranationalе reguй lation systemsк One should admit that the United States has derived some conclusions from their crisis experienceч in particularи the эmerican actors have started discussing дand takingе measures aimed at tighter regulationк They have also begun cleaning bad and ‘toxic’ debtsк эll these are important developmentsи especially with the acй count of special and enormous global influence of эmerican financial institutions and instrumentsк Today the World Monetary Fund has more opportunities to affect global economy as a result of the increase in its credit resourcesк Howeverи there are strong doubts that the World Monetary Fund will be able to move significantly toward its own transformation into a sort of ‘World яentral юank’ though such suppositions are sometimes made дsee eкgки Zotinи омнмек The world experience demonstrates that the new principles дwhich should also serve as a basis for the new world financial systemе do not develop from or as a result of those institutions which have already realized their functionsк Theseи more established institutions are hardly liable to such a radical transformationк э few quite reasonable opinions have been expressed recently with respect to the possible directions of the necessary regulation of financial activitiesк For exampleи Schäfer maintains the followingц Particularly risky financial products must be prohibited. At present, if one invents a new financial instrument, he can offer it to his clients the next day. For example, an inventor of a new derivative is not obliged to register it in any state agency; he can start selling it immediately. Free market proponents believe that financial markets will regulate everything themselves, that they will sort out and discard bad products by themselves. In reality this does not happen. Banks and funds threw ‘toxic waste’ amounting to trillions of dollars to the market, and meanwhile they diffused a belief that one can produce really valuable stocks from a large number of dubious assets, whereas nobody felt being responsible for all this. But if the market cannot take responsibility upon itself, it should be assumed by the state. Financial corporations must be obliged to register in advance all the financial products that they invent (similarly to what is observed with the production of medicines in the pharmaceutical industry). A state agency should anticipatorily check and test all the financial instruments before banks get their right пфо | Grinin в Korotayev to sell them. And if those instruments turn out to be too dangerous, the agency should prohibit them (Schäfer, 2009: 279–280). State agencies controlling financial markets should subdivide rating agencies in such a way that a part of them would calculate ratings, whereas the other part would provide consulting services to banks. In the meantime, rating agencies and their clients should publish all the information that has been used to calculate the rating. In this case, any other rating agency will be able to check the ascribed rating and to publish an alternative calculation if it does not agree дibid.ц офмек Actually, the business of tax havens consists of the sucking of funds from industrially developed countries. The ‘havens’ attract them with their extremely low tax rates. They offer absolute secrecy to their depositors and exempt financial corporations from any checks. That is why the industrial countries should coerce ‘havens’ to abandon bank secrecy and make them inform foreign tax agencies of all the respective capitals and revenues. ‘Havens’ should raise their tax rates to an internationally acceptable level. They will not do this voluntarily. That is why, if necessary, they should be coerced to do this with economic sanctions дibid.ц офрекот It is easy to notice that this citation дwith an important exception in the last secй tionе is addressed to the national governmentк Howeverи though the role of national regulation still remains very importantи today we observe a situation in the financial markets when a single state дin contrast with the previous periodе cannot cope with itк Thusи as finances internationalize more and moreи respective measures should be taken at the supranational levelк For quite a long time some analysts have been discussing the necessity of the transition from the national level of regulation to the supranational one дsee eкgки Van Der Weeи нххмч Sorosи нххфек Lester Thurowи as well as some other analystsи finds the cause of the instability of the world stock markets in the contradiction between the inй отк эs is well knownи in many Western countries high taxes provoked a vigorous growth of the number of those who try to avoid regulationsи as well as an increase in the number of offйshore safe havens дsee eкgки яassardи нххрц оо–офч Zoromeи оммуц ор–осч Platonova et al.и оммхек The Gом London meeting evidenced rather active speeches дespecially on the part of Germany and Franceе against the offйshoresк Indeedи a few resolutions aimed against them were takenи some countries дbut not all the relevant countriesе found themselves in a black list of states putting obstacles in the way to the international control over the tax havensк Howeverи with economic recoveryи the antiйoffйshore thrust is likely to weakenи especially taking into consideration the point that some Gом countries дeкgки яhina and юritй ainе are interested in some offйshores дюykov et alки оммхц нмнек There were also declarations regarding such things as the necessity to tie salaries of the managers of investment banks to mid and long range resultsк One should also note the pressure to reduce bank secrecy дsee eкgки Fokinи омнмеи though this cannot be regarded as a purely positive developmentк яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пфп ternational character of operations of the world stock markets and the national nature of the stock markets themselvesк Howeverи he has very good grounds to note thatи though the epoch of national economic regulation is coming to its endи the epoch of the global economic regulation has not started yet дThurowи нххтек Will radical changй es in this direction take place in the near futureы The transformation of the international order starts to be discussed in an espeй cially urgent way when the world is shaken by global crisesк Henceи it is not surprising that the concepts of the ‘revision of the world order’ дeкgки Tinbergenи нхуте emerged just in нхумs crisis yearsк The crises of нхтх–нхуни monetary crises of нхун–нхупи but especially the нхуп–нхус crisisи were indeed periods of economic chaos without any entirely comparable precedents in the postйwar era дibid.ек This stimulated the develй opment of new ideologies of global developmentч particularly with respect to the reй lationship between developed and developing countries or sustainable developmentк Many of the questions posed in this period дas well as many recommendations worked out at that timeе remain rather valid todayк People living in any epoch always believe that their epoch with its reforms and crises is the most uniqueк Still we do not think that it is an exaggeration to say that the current global crisis has demonstratedи in an especially salient wayи the necessity for major changes in the regulation of internaй tional economic activities and movements of world financial currentsк These changes would include the need for the growth of coordinated actions by governments and unified international legislation regulating financial activities and movementsк эctualй lyи the world needs a new system of financialйeconomic regulation at the global scaleк яomprehension of the causes of the crisis may provide a push to start a new round of global transformationsи but the respective path дto effective transformaй tionsе appears rather longк Howeverи even the transition to the very initial phase of a new system of supranationalйnational regulation will imply rather profound changes дwhereas many transformations can hardly be predicted todayек The point that the political landscape and the balance of world power will change in the forthcoming deй cades is felt more and more stronglyк эmerican analysts believe that ‘the international system—as constructed following the Second World War—will be almost unrecognizй able by омос… The transformation is being fueled by a globalizing economyи marked by an historic shift of relative wealth and economic power from West to Eastи and by the increasing weight of new players—especially яhina and India’ дNational Intelliй gence яouncilи оммфц нек The variations of probable future transformations in connection with the crisis and estimations of the probabilities of various scenarios of the World System development пфр | Grinin в Korotayev in the forthcoming decades will be presented in the second part of the articleк эmong the problems which are analyzed in this part are the followingц Will there be a leader in the future World Systemы Will the deficit of global governance and world fragmenй tation increaseы How could national sovereignty be transformedы ON THE POSSIBLE WAYS OF WORLD SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT 1. Change of Leadership or a Fundamental System Modification? It is quite obvious that today we observe the weakening of the economic role of the USэ as the World System centerч in a more general sense we observe the weakening of the World System core countries as a wholeкоу That is why there is no doubt that sooner or later дin any case in the near futureе the USэ’s status as the World System’s leader will change and its role will diminishк эmerican analysts are worried by this more than anyone else дseeи eкgки Mandelbaumи оммсч National Intelligence яouncil оммфек The current crisis is an important step toward the present leader’s weakeningк эs we have already spelled out дsee Grininи оммфbи оммхaи оммхdч Grinin в Korotayevи омнмц chк рч омннеи the former priorities and foundations of the world economic order which were based on making profits for the USэ will sooner or later start to transform into a new orderк In the foreseeable future such a transformation will constitute colй lisions of relations between USэ national interestsи on the one handи and the genй eral world interestsи on the other дsee Grininи оммфbи оммхeи омннч Grinin в Korotayevи омнмц яonclusionч омнн for more detailек Howeverи such a collision will lead to rather important transformationsи whichи unй fortunatelyи tend to be ignoredк There is a general universal tendency to believe that in the proximate futureи the USэ’s current tenuous leading position will be occupied by the European Unionи яhinaи or some other country дstarting with India and ending with Russia [seeи eкgки Frankи нххуи нххфч Pantin в Lapkinи оммт]ек юut to model the World System transformations mostly with regard to a change of its leader is a serious mistakeк Today we are dealing not only with a crisis in the World System or even with a crisis of the World System coreч ratherи we are dealing with a crisis of the established оук This is manifested in the slowйdown of the economic growth rates in the World System core and their acceleration in the most of the World System periphery дsee Grinin в Korotayevи омнмч Khalturina в Korotayevи оммхч Meliantsevи оммхч Inozemtsevи оммф for more detailеи in too rapid and anarchic deinй dustrializationи in the dependence on cheap importsи budget deficitsи general growth of public and private debtsи negative demographic developmentsи etcк This resurrects the ideas of the ‘death of the West’ дseeи eкgки юuchananи оммоек яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пфс model of its structure which is based on having a leader who concentrates many asй pects of leadership дpoliticalи militaryи financialи monetaryи economicи technologicalек The USэ also acts as an avantйgarde of the developed countries as a whole дabout some aspects of USэ position in the World seeи eкgки Renwickи омммч Nyeи оммоч юacevй ichи оммоек Thusи we are dealing with a rather complex leadership structureц the USэ— leading European countries and Japan—newly industrialized countries of эsia and so onк юesidesи a special position is occupied by the USэ’s neighbors дMexicoи etcкек When we speak about the USэ losing their leadership statusи we should not simй ply surmise that there will be a change in leader of the World Systemк We should rather presume that there will be a radical transformation of the overall structure of the world economic and political orderк The simple change of the World System leader is rather unlikely already due to the fact that no country will be able to occupy the position of leadership in a way that is equivalent to the one held by the USэ todayи as no country will be able to monopolize so many leadership functionsк Only as a result of this factor дalthough there is a number of other important factorsеи the loss of the leading role by the USэ will mean a radical transformation of the World System as a wholeк First of all one should point out that the USэ world leading position is unique in historyк We also believe that the concentration of the world’s economicи financialи militaryи politicalи and innovationйscientific potential in one center дiкeки in the USэе after World War II was a generally positive factor дand the existence of the USSR as the alternative political and military center even amplified its positive value in some respectsек Let us recollect that the USэ became the World System leader after World War Iк юut even at that time the United States controlled only economic and financial powerи it lacked equivalent political powerи and did not even strive for itк Furtherи it should be emphasized that such a situationи that is the absence of a recognized World System leaderи contributed significantly to a very severe economic and political World System crisis during the period between the two World Wars and also to the beginй ning of the Second World Warк In the нхтмs one could observe a decrease in the economic role of the USэ in the World System which led to the emergence of a threeйcenter model of economic leadй ershipц the USэ—Western Europe—Japanк Howeverи it is important to note that this system was formed under the political and military дrecognized and desiredе leaderй ship of the USэк This structure turned out to be rather viable for almost four decadesк It works even nowч yetи if it turns out to be impossible to restore the economic dynamй ics of the Western economiesи its role will weaken дwhereas since the early нхумs one пфт | Grinin в Korotayev can observe a general trend toward the decline of the economic growth rates in all the three centersек Unfortunatelyи today those centers are not able to give much to each other as they have rather similar problemsк The opportunity to strengthen themselves is connected to unifying their forces in order to preserve certain advantages inherй ent to developed countries дand that are also useful for the World System as a wholeи see belowек In a way this process would be similar to the one just after World War II through which the West strengthened itself against the backdrop of the expansion of the яommunist юlock and the simultaneous disintegration of its colonial empiresи by uniting militarilyи politicallyи and ideologically дand partly economicallyек One cannot exclude the possibilityи of courseи that the emergence of new revoluй tionary technologies could give new life to the economic development of the USэ дas happened in the late нхфмs and нххмsеи and the West as a wholeч howeverи firstи such technologies do not seem to be likely to be developed in the forthcoming decadeи and in this period the problems in the эmerican economy will be aggravatedк Secondи in order for such new technologies to produce major results a rather long period дat least нс–ом yearsе would be necessary and over that time many things are bound to changeк Thirdи even such new technologies would be unlikely to help preserve military and political leadershipк Thusи it is evident that a place similar to the one held by the presentйday USэ cannot be occupied in futureи neither by another state nor by an alliance of statesк эcй cording to Fareed Zakaria доммхеи the functions of the World System leader can only be performed by a country that achieves dominance in ideas or ideologyи an economй ic systemи and military powerк Howeverи in the near futureи there will be no country дnor even an alliance of countriesе that will be able to concentrate several aspects of the World System leadershipк It is often proposed that яhina will replace the USэ as the new World System leader дfor an analysis of such views seeи eкgки Wangи омнмек юut this function is not likely to be performed by яhina even if яhina eventually surpasses the USэ with reй spect to its GDP volumeк Those who suggest яhina as such a leader do not appear to take into consideration that its economy is not adequately innovativeи that it does not develop on the basis of technologies of tomorrow дandи to some extentи even of todayекоф This is noted even by those analysts who take rather optimistic view of the яhinese capabilities to sustain extremely high GDP growth rates for long time in fuй офк Meanwhileи яhina has already moved to the third place in the world дafter the USэ and Japanе with respect to the absolute size of its RвD expenses дMeliantsevи оммхц ноп–норек яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пфу ture дeкgки Mikheevи оммфц пнни пнхч see also Meliantsevи оммхц ноп–норекох In additionи the яhinese economy is too much exportйorientedк We believe that the economic center of the World System cannot be based on the exporting of nonйinnovative дand even not su ciently highly technologicalе productsк юesidesи the яhinese model is very resourceйintensive which makes it dependent on the opportunities of extending the world raw materials production and their pricesи whereas яhina becomes the leadй ing importer of a number of commoditiesк эnd at the same time this makes the world extractive industry extremely dependent on the яhinese economy’s growth дGelbrasи оммуц ох–пмек эnd what is more importantи the economic growth in яhina is based to a great extent on an inadequate technological basis дibid.ц пмек In order to perform the World System center roleи the яhinese economy should becomeи on the one handи innovative and highly technological дwhich is hardly comй patible with heavy industryи or conveyor industriesеи and ecologically advanced—on the other handк Howeverи яhina does not possess necessary conditions for thisк One would need no less than ом–ос years to become an innovation pioneerк We believe that it is India that is more likely to become a technological leader дseeи eкgки National Intelligence яouncilи оммфч Meliantsevи оммхц нмуи тмеи but India does not have many other leadership components that яhina hasк That is why the idea that in нс–ом years many countries will be more attracted by ‘яhina’s alternative development model’ rather than by the Western models of political and economic development дNational Intelligence яouncilи оммфц ivеи provokes serious doubtsк The Western models may be criticizedи whereas it is quite natural that яhina’s successes could hardly avoid bringing attentionк юut it is very unlikely that any country дwith a possible exception of North Koreaе will try to introduce the яhinese modelкпм The point is that this model simply cannot be introducedк In order to do this one would need a totalitarian communist partyк Even the USSR was unable to copy the яhinese modelк Not to mention that the яhinese polluting model of economy can hardly suit any countryк The issue of the restructuring of the model of the яhinese economy is tightly conй nected with яhina’s ability to preserve the current high growth ratesи whereas the latй ter is extremely important for the ideological prestige of the яhinese administration дthoughи we seem to observe the growing influence of the faction that believes that it is necessary to slow down the growth rates in order to decrease the social stratifiй охк Howeverи one should not neglect the explosive growth of patent applications and patent grants in яhina дseeи eкgки Korotayevи Zinkinaи в юogevolnovи омннеи as well as the point that in some areas дeкgки in biotechnologiesе яhina has certain undeniable innovation achievementsк пмк Those capable have already introduced it дwe mean first of all Vietnamек пфф | Grinin в Korotayev cation and tensionек The яhinese administration has already announced that it plans to reduce the growth rates to ф–у б in омнн–омно and in the period of ноth fiveй year plan—till омнс дseeи eкgки юeglaryanи омннеи which is connected not only with the increase in inflation but also with the evident di culty of supporting the previous extremely high growth rates that deform the social systemк It is not coincidental that the analysts note overinvestment and the presence of excessive production capaciй ties in the яhinese economy that are caused by fierce competition between provinces that struggle to attract investments and to secure high growth rates in the respective regionsк The transition to such an economic model focused on internal consumption and technological innovation is further complicated by the following pointsц е the growth of internal consumption implies the acceleration of the growth of the living standards and яhinese labor costs дthat are growing anywayеч bе the growth of the labor costs is not likely to be compensated by an adequate increase in the labor proй ductivity дas this happened beforeеч cе consequentlyи the costs of exported commodiй ties may increaseи their competitiveness may fallи while the attractiveness of investй ments in яhina will then decreaseкпн This may cause a slowdown of growth ratesк Thusи for яhina the transition to a new type of economy with a simultaneous preservation of its leadership in economic growth rates is di cultк Even though home demand will continue to developи it will either be incapable of a su cient replacing the export deй mand or this will mean a profound structural rebuilding of the economyк Investments into infrastructureи housing constructionи etcк can be locomotives of development only if su cient resources obtained through exports are presentи but combining the two directions simultaneously does not seem probable in the long runкпо э decrease in growth rate implies a state revenue decline accompanied by the aggravation of unemй ployment and an increase in social obligationsк Moreoverи it can be assumed that in the coming decade the яhinese economy’s growth rates will sooner or laterи and inevitablyи decline дregardless of whether the attempt to reйorient the economy from an export model to the model of internal consumption will turn out to be successful or notек эs a resultи the same processes may start that were observed in Japan after нхус дseeи eкgки Karsbolи омнмек Howeverи the slowing down of growth ratesи particularly in an authoritarian country дwhere a remarkable population ageing is to be observed soonеи will lead to the aggravation of пнк юefore the crisis there has already been forecasted some decrease in direct foreign investments into яhinese economy during the next нс years дMikheevи оммфц пннек пок Economy reйorienteering turns out to be very complicated even for such developed countries as Japanк Let us remember that attempts made in Russia during several decades to reйorient the export have been unsuccessful so farк яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пфх social conditions and changes in state prioritiesи which may ultimately weaken яhina’s economic potencyк The developing impulse force is still great in яhinaи while inertia is still powerfulи but it is quite obvious that both will most probably weakenк эt the same timeи the idea of higher living standards for the majority of яhina’s population will be spreading at an advanced rateк This has both positive дas this inspires energy and new search motivations in some part of the populationе and negative дas it increases ungrounded claims to the state and decreases the competitiveness of the яhinese economyе implications дfor more detail about the яhinese economic model and perй spective of яhina world leadership see Grininи омннек 2. Hypothetical and Real Alternatives Thusи the future World System will not be able to possess the same structure as the current one with an equally strong centreк What can be an alternative to the modern ‘order’ in the worldы Here we step upon unsteady and ungrateful soil of forecastsк Let us first consider the future structure based upon the following probable but still hypothetical suggestionк Objectivelyи globalization leads to the appearance of some new forms of political and economic establishments of a supranational typeк The EU represents just a version of such a typeи other types and forms have just been outlined or are currently being outlinedк Howeverи they may emerge rather fast under favorable conditionsк The largest states дeкgки the USэи яhinaи and Indiaе may rival such supranational establishments for quite a long timeи but still the future lies in front of the latterи not the formerк эccording to this hypothesisи the new World System leader дif it emerges altoй getherе will hardly be a separate stateи but rather a дpotentially increasingе block of statesк Will this alliance be headed by some of the largest states of the modern worldи or will it arise from a coalition of states of medium size and powerы Or will such a coalition emerge on some other basesы Obviouslyи neither яhinaи nor India can unite around themselves a relevant group of countries on their political дfor India also civiliй zationalе specific featuresк In order to become such an integrating centerи яhina must change its political regimeкпп For яhinaи changing its political regime will most probaй bly imply a severe shock дpresumably even disintegrationи Tibet being the main candiй ппк It should be noted that яhina has got some projections on more active integration with neighborsк In particularи one could mention the idea of free trade area ‘яhinaзэSEэN’ and a united integrative space in NorthйEast эsia with participation of Japanи яhinaи South Koreaи and possibly Russian energetic resourcesк Howeverи taking into account the tense relations between яhina and Japan this hardly seems realistic дfor further details see Mikheevи оммфц пнхек пхм | Grinin в Korotayev date for separationпреи while the preservation of the regime requires relying on its own capacitiesк The regime in яhina will remain solid and strong until it is capable to supй port the process that is quite accurately denoted by Yunxiang Yan доммое as managed globalizationк This implies the ability of the government to control diverse дculturalи in particularе global influencesк That is why яhina is not ready to lead the process of the economic coordination of the regionк юutи at the same timeи it will not agree to perй form the role of ‘number two’ дseeи eкgки the opinion of a famous Japanese economistи Richard Koo [Ivanterи оммхц ху]е and clearly increases the economical influence on the эSEэN countries дKanayev в Kurilkoи омнмц рп–ррек Stillи Richard Koo’s statement that яhina sooner or later will have to burden itself with the leadershipи at least in эsia дibid.еи does not look entirely convincingк э more natural integration of the эmerican region under the aegis of the USэ дsome kind of a panйэmericaе could theoretically revive the role of the USэ as the world centerк Howeverи the disposition of political forces in Latin эmerica is too unstaй bleи and the level of development differs greatly among the statesк юrazil has already stepped into the first line of the largest countriesк юesidesи quite a number of regimes are much tempted to play on confronting the USэк э union with Mexico and яanada дNэFTэеи though supplying more than фс б of the whole export for яanada and Mexй icoи is incapable of fulfilling a function which could solve the aboveйmentioned task дKirichenko et al., оммфц оотек эmong all variants of the emergence of such hypothetical leading union the Euй ropean version has the largest дthough on the whole smallе probabilityк Even though the European expansion crosses the natural geographical limitationsи the possibility of Turkey with its more than ум million population entering the EU someday should not be excludedк This would turn the EU into a supraйEuropean union дwe should also account for the strengthening ties between the EU and nonйEuropean Mediterranean statesек If Europe could integrate with Russiaи Ukraineи and юelarusи this would give a certain impulse to restructuring the World System relations and even form some strong centreк In terms of practiceи this is a highly complicatedи but rather possible scenarioкпс In any case the EU must cope with financial problemsи periodically encounй tered by one or another its memberк прк The latterи not possessing statehood traditionsи most probably will go the way of Kosovoи turning into one more drug state дseeи eкgки юykov et alки оммхц нмпек пск Howeverи the high living standard of the Europeans and the aspiration of the new EU members to immediately attain the same level substantially decrease the impulses to adopt new members дthe sameи but in lesser scaleи occurred during the reunification of Germanyек яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пхн эll the aboveйmentioned scenarios are rather unlikelyк Thusи the most real alternaй tive to the role of the USэ is currentlyккк the USэ itselfк That is why during the nearй est one or two decades the USэ will remain the most real leader ifи of courseи the эmericans do not undermine their positions themselves дthrough a sharp change in foreign policyи strong devaluation of dollarи a defaultи or an economic collapseекпт In the current absence of an obvious leader counterйweighing the USэи the world will be obliged to support the preservation of the USэ as a nonйalternativeи though getй ting decrepitи center as any weakening in the USэ position can lead to a great extent uncontrolled transformation of the World Systemк э certain ‘imbalance cycle’ arises дNational Intelligence яouncil оммфеи where imbalances support each otherк On the one handи this plays into the hands of the USэи but on the other handи the absence of strong competition for leadership greatly weakens the USэ’s capacities to renewalк There exists an opinion thatи though the demand for the USэ leadership remains highи the interest and readiness of the USэ to play the leading role may decreaseи as the эmerican voters will reconsider their attitude towards economicи military and other expenses of эmerican leadership дNational Intelligence яouncil оммфек To put it more exactlyи fluctuations in foreign policy are more possibleи along with variations of the struggle between isolationism and hegemonyи as a result the USэ’s foreign political activity may decline for some timeк Howeverи state transition from the policy of sheer hegemony and external expansion to passive foreign policy took place a number of times in the course of historyи in particularи in Japanи Germanyи and in most recent times in Russiaк In uncertain conditions the number of probable scenarios can be largeк Thusи the document prepared by the National Intelligence яouncil of the USэ Global Trends омосц э Transformed World дNational Intelligence яouncilи оммфе considers four hyй pothetical scenariosц ‘э World Without the West’ when new forces press the West out of its leading positions in the geopoliticsчпу ‘October Surprise’—an ecological catasй tropheч ‘юRIяs’ юustйUp’—a conflict between India and яhina over the access to vitally important resourcesч ‘Politics is not эlways Local’—when various nonйstate structures птк The last two ones will indeed require fast decisionйmaking at the global scaleк Spontaneous US dolй lar collapse can lead to downfall of all national financial and currency systemsк эlong with a sharp fall of the main global currency rate the whole global economy would devalue дsee Platonova et al.и оммхц ффек пук эs regards economic ousting of the Westи whichи of courseи results from faster economies’ growth in the peripheryи there is a fundamental point to noteи which will change not so fastи if at allк яurrently дand it will stay this way in the foreseeable futureе the development vector is still being set by the Westи while the fastestйgrowing economiesи with rare exceptionи are adjuncts to the Western economyк If we try to imagine that only developed countries are left in the worldи without the periphery onesи life stanй dard and the level of technology in the West would suffer much less than those in periphery countries in a vice versa situationк юesidesи in this fantastic scenario the Western economy would obviously go up rather rapidlyи while in the periphery a collapse would occurк пхо | Grinin в Korotayev unite in order to develop an international program for the environmental protection and to elect a new Secretary General of the United Nationsк эll of themи though based on certain trends of the modernityи do not seem su ciently realи which is admitted by the authors themselves дNational Intelligence яouncilи оммфек Given the wide range of the variants of futureи it is remarkably di cult to consider all variationsк That is why it is better to select certain main parameters for the analysis of the hypothesesк Let us take such an important parameter of future development as the degree of suddenness and sharpness of geopolitical and geoeconomic changesк Obviouslyи if the process proceeds graduallyи people get accustomed to it and try to put it under influenceи and the system somehow has time to transformк If the changes occur suddenlyи for some time there arises a vacuum of the system and orderи chaosи hasty building of temporary and thus not always successful constructionsк Let us view two such hypothetical scenariosц the one of gradual change and the one of sharp changeкпф In the first oneи the USэ power would decrease not sharplyи but graduallyк In this case the USэи trying to preserve its leading positionи would possibly be obliged to maneuverи enter some coalitionsи give in sometimes in certain questionsи and accept some global ideas in order not to lose leadership and to preserve an acceptable geoй political balanceк On the other handи the USэ would aspire to create something at the global scaleи try to institutionalize the situationи seeking to strengthen the position of primus inter pares in some commonly accepted international and interstate agreeй ments and interaction systems дorganizationsи consultationsи etcке at the same time not insisting on absolute or even evident hegemony which is present nowadaysкпх Naturallyи this would require great skillк This process would be more successful if the USэ couldи according to юrzezinski’s recommendationи unite with Europe and Japan in important directions дюrzezinskiи оммрч for the analysis of эmerican foreign policy and the USэ position in the world see also Kaganи оммпч юacevichи оммоч Jervisи оммсек Given the low growth rates in developed countriesи the West is objectively interested in creating an order which would institutionally formalize some of its advantages дto пфк Though the process will most probably be unevenц slow uncontrolled changes will be succeeded by large but not fatal collapses and crisesи inspiring the transformation process and even changing its directionsк эs the forecasting experience showsи not a single forecasting model could be realized in its pure versionч usually something arisesи in which different trends can be seen in specific combinationк пхк Wilkinson called a somewhat similar scenario ‘unipolarity without hegemony’и but with probable dominance of the USэ дWilkinsonи нхххек In our version some crucially important points have been addedи including the necessity of trying to secure de jure the advantages in some relationsк Securing the prevailing role of dollar turned out to be exceptionally important for the USэ in its timeк яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пхп some extent this would be useful for the whole World Systemекрм It is doubtful whether this necessity could be realized in timeи but the success of such an institutionalization greatly depends on whether this realization occurs sooner or laterкрн This would beи so to sayи a scenario of ‘planned reйbuilding’к The second scenario will occur in case when the USэ changes its position draй maticallyи iкeки as a result of a sudden dollar collapse and especially as a consequence of an эmerican default дsayи at sudden change in the global economy resulting from a crisis sharper that one of fall оммфек In this case the US public opinion may sway to folding up the global functions of the USэи which will additionally aggravate the vacuum of international governanceк In this situationи the possibilities include anarchy дa less likely scenarioе or hasty gathй ering дor ‘knocking together’е of some system capable of supporting the collapsing world order and solving the momentary tasksи offering certain palliative solutions and agreements which on the whole can turn out to be perspective further onк Howeverи among all hypothetical variants the two alternative ones seem most probable to usк The first oneи which is naturally more preferableи is the expansion of the ‘club’ of leading global players up to a number which would allow them to influй ence somehow the course of world development дwhich will be considered further onек The second variant implies spontaneous uncontrolled development where main players will be mostly concerned with domestic problemsи the politicians will mind only the popularity ratingsи while the global problems will be solved in passingк The Japanese society is a good example of such selfйisolation дthough even there some certain trends to integration can be observed [seeи eкgки Ivanterи оммхц хх]еи the EU also too frequently reveals reticence with their own interestsк For Western countries there exists a danger of becoming hostages to a democratic systemи in which the position of politicians precludes them from thinking about futureи and this could ultimately turn them into demagogues and stateйmongersк юesidesи incidents of protectionism and other antiйglobalization measures are in no way excludedк In this case only unexй рмк эn example of such securing is the definition of the five leading states having the veto right in the UN Security яouncilк The disposition of powers in the world is changingи while this order is not easy to alterк рнк One of the possible outcomes for the West implies quoting the economy growth rates in order to restrain the all too fast periphery development дon the possibilities of such quoting see Grininи оммхdек If the limitations cannot be achieved through direct quotes on economic growthи they can still be purй sued under the mask of struggling for the global ecologyи for the rights of wage earnersи against disй honest rivalry etcк пхр | Grinin в Korotayev pected shocksи such as the modern crisisи can wake Western politicians and societies upк Surges of nationalи civilizationalи and hegemonic pride are also usefulк 3. Will the Deficit of Global Governance and World Fragmentation Increase? We have already mentioned in our previous works that economic and financial globalй ization greatly advances the development of international law and political globalizaй tion дGrininи оммфbи оммфcи оммхeи оммхfи оммхhи омноек Will the political component of the World System lag behind the economic one even more in the decades to comeы The answer to a great extent depends on what the economic development will be in the near futureк Numerous economists and social scientistsи presenting various arguй ments дsometimes basing on the dynamics of the famous Kondratieff cyclesеи suppose that in the next нс–ом years the world economic development will most probably proceed at a slower rate than in the preceding periodкро We support this point of view дsee Grinin в Korotayevи омнмек Howeverи if this forecast comes trueи will not the politiй cal component of the World System be able to catch up slightlyы юesidesи the weakй ening of the US leadership and the absence of an alternative дin any case changing a leader is a long and complicated processе must obviously lead to the international system transforming faster and in a more substantial wayк яonsequentlyи we are enterй ing a period of searching for new structural and systemic solutions within the World Systemи which means a considerably complicated period awaiting us in the near fuй tureк Working out and stabilizing the model of a new political order within the World System will be a complicatedи lengthyи and rather contentious processк This way or anotherи the global governance deficit is presentи and in the forthcomй ing decades it obviously will not disappearк Supposedlyи it will become more ideoй logically sensibleи while the project of eliminating this deficit will become relatively feasibleк Howeverи global governance requires great effort and substantial sacrificeк To what extent will the states and nonйstate subjects wish or be able to endure the growй ing burden of global governanceы э refusal to divide this burden will aggravate the situation of increasing institutional lack дNational Intelligence яouncil оммфек Seemй inglyи there will be quite a few countries ready to take some burden of international regulation by themselvesи in the same way as nowadays only a few states take obliй gations to make large contributions to international organizations including the UNк That is why for some time many countries will still be interested in the USэ leadership рок Howeverи much depends on which methods are chosen for GDP calculationк Many changes actually cheapen the final productи as a result of which the impression of GDP decrease arisesк яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пхс even thoughи as has been mentioned aboveи the USэ itself in certain conditions may not be interested or capable of continuing to be a leaderк яertain large states rivaling the USэ leadership will be most probably incapable of global governing as wellк Such a situation may reveal the most important spheres the regulation of which will be profitableи as well as certain important fields where it will be compulsory to participate according to international obligationsк This should strengthen the trend to various collective activitiesи formation of associationsи and developing different types of cooperationк This will also transform the global governance towards new technoloй giesк эmerican analysts suppose thatц е in the nearest future politicians and the public will have to cope with the growing demand for multilateral cooperationч bе current trends are leading to the emergence in нс–ом years of a fragmented and contradicй tory worldч cе multipolarity and structurelessness are the main features of the future system дNational Intelligence яouncilи оммфек эs regards the demand for multilateral cooperationи which is already high nowaй daysи it will continue to growк It seemsи howeverи that the growth of this demand е gives an opportunity for certain regional states and unions to strengthen their posiй tionsч bе will contribute to faster emergence of various formats of multilateral coopй erationк It should be noted that the new international order would best emerge with the formation of a su cient number of supranational unionsи coalitionsи coordination centersи multilateral agreementsи as well as influential NGOs and networks varying in type and scaleи on the one handи and with presence of de jure дor at least de factoе acй cepted institutionalized leading center of the World Systemк Multipolarity дthough this term is interpreted differentlyе has become a geopoй litical motto for some states and it seems to be forming дsee also Nyeи оммоек New centers of power дfirst of allи economicи but also military and politicalе are establishedи causing new configurations within the World Systemк Howeverи in any case multipolarй ity in the context of peaceful coexistence implies the presence of a certain orderи so multipolarity and structurelessness are opposites to each otherк Fragmentation increase would imply the World System disintegration дat least temporaryек To what extent is it possibleы We consider this to be unlikely due to some realities of a certain quasiйunity being customary for usк Even the crisis did not lead to disintegrationч on the contraryи it united the world to some extentк яertain global conscience seems to be formedк Let us bring just one example of unexpected metaй пхт | Grinin в Korotayev morphoses of modern economic psychologyк During the period of a particularly low fall of production indexes in оммф–омнм many economists were circulating the idea that the яhinese economy would pull the whole world outи and so things are not too disastrousк 4. The Epoch of New Coalitions and Sovereignty Transformation We have already written on the transformation process with respect to national sovй ereigntyи iкeки on the decrease of the real volume of state sovereign powersи which is to a great extent voluntary дfor more details seeц Grininи оммфbи оммхdи оммхeи оммхfи оммхhек The necessity to pull up the political component of the World System and to strengthen the global regulation of financial and other agents contributes to the sovereignty transformation processи as the states must voluntarily limit themselves in some spheresи and sometimes undertake additional functions дfor more details see Grininи оммфcи оммхcи оммхdи оммхeи оммхfи оммхgи омноч Grinin в Korotayevи оммхaек The global crisis has revealed the sovereignty limitations more clearly and showed that even the USэ cannot act without real support of other countriesк ‘юy омос a single “international community” composed of nationйstates will no longer existк Power will be more dispersed with the newer players bringing new rules of the game while risks will increase that the traditional Western alliances will weaken’ дNational Intelligence яouncilи оммфц ivек Indeedи the real composition of ‘international community’ will most likely be more complicated in the next decades due to the addiй tion of some supranational unionsи o cial or informal councils of leaders of states and unionsи temporary or constant coalitionsи andи possiblyи the NGOsк Howeverи sovereignty transformation within the new world order creation is not a unidirectional and unilinear processк Firstlyи national state will for a long time remain the leading player in the world arenaи as in the foreseeable future only the state will be capable of solving a number of questionsк Secondlyи sovereignty may even increase in some aspectsи as the modern crisis shows once more that the fate of national econoй mies to a great extent depends on the state strengthк Thusи it is quite probable that the nearest future may reveal a certain ‘renaissance’ of the state role and activity in the world arenaк In some countries sovereign powers that had previously been дsomeй times thoughtlesslyе given away to supranational organizationsи unionsи and global capital may possibly be returnedк In longйterm trends such ebbs and fluctuations are not only possible but unavoidableк Thusи the seemingly steady movement towards deй mocracy in the early омth century suddenly made a swerve toward totalitarianismч the яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пху development of free market trade in the late нхth century was turned to protectionй ismк Thusи a return to etatism can be both rather lengthy and rather usefulк Neverthelessи it should be mentioned that such a return to the increasing role of state cannot be performed on the former basesи when the benefits of a state дeven within the fulfillment of undertaken obligations and the observation of common inй ternational normsе were accepted in international relations as the highest cause of its activity on the world arenaк We suppose that the return of the state role cannot be successful without a substantial change in the state foreign policy ideologyк In other wordsи we can suggest that purely egoistic interests of states will to a much lesser extent underlie the foreign policy concept and performanceкрп Naturallyи naй tional egoism will not disappear altogether for a long time дif ever at allеи but it will be more disguised by supranational interests and necessities than it is nowк To put it more exactlyи every action may require not only a real interestи but also an ideological groundingк Viewing the global arena as a ‘great chess board’ дюrzezinskiи нххуе where the strongest winsи while small pieces may be exchanged or sacrificed will possibly not be in demand any moreк The world arena will rather be viewed as a common field of interests where rules advantageous for everybody must be stated and someй how supportedк The countries will more and more remarkably define not only their own security in such categories which would accord with interests of the othersи as юrzezinski advises to the USэ дsee юrzezinskiи нххуеи but also all their largeйscale acй tionsк That is why it is sensed that gradually the mottos of common дregionalи globalи groupе good will strengthen in foreign policyи though the ‘whoйrepresentsйtheйglobalй interestsйbetter’ formula mayи as alwaysи disguise egoistic causesкрр Howeverи this will lead to substantial changesи generally positiveк In any caseи the countries continuing to roughly stand up for their national egoistic interests will eventually loseи sooner or laterк Radical changes will be unavoidable in the policy of large states aimed at direct and rough domineering in global or regional scale дincluding the most independent and egoistic sovereignи the USэек рпк One of the numerous examples of such egoistic approach in the position of the USэ on the quesй tion of greenhouse gases emission into the atmosphereк Outright declaration of a certain region as a zone of its special interestsи intervention into the business of other states under the pretext of weakй ening somebody дeкgки Russiaеи as well as supporting the undisguised corrupted regimes etcк are all examples of undisguised egoistic policyк Let us also note that foreign policy of such major countries as Indiaи яhinaи and Japan does not essentially possess any special ideology altogetherк ррк For sureи in modern history different actions have been and are still carried out under the aegis of common interestsи in particularи intervention into dependent countries дon the part of both the USSR and the USэеи pressure upon certain countries under the mottos of defending the human rightsи deй mocracyи etcк Ideological aspect will presumably substantially increaseк пхф | Grinin в Korotayev In this case national interests assertionи rivalry forms on the world arenaи conflicts and litigations will acquire a different form from nowк Rivalry will increase on directing the process of new world order formationк Rival forces will perform under the mottos of a newи more honest world arrangementи of fair and crisisйless global developmentи against national дespecially эmericanе egoismи etcк For conducting such a policyи allies and blocks are obviously necessaryк Thusи regrouping of forces on the world and reй gional arenas will invariably startк In the struggle for a place of honour in globalization and coalitionsи in organization and functioning of a new world order the phenomenon occurs which we named the epoch of new coalitions дsee Grininи оммхdи оммхhек эs a resultи new force disposition may be outlined for quite a lengthy periodк Formsи particular aims and activity directions of the new coalitions will depend on numerous factorsи in particularи on how far the process of making common decisions will go and what means and forms of common decisionйmaking will be realizedк Thusи it seems that the system of simple democracy дone stateлparticipant—one voteе on the World System level will hardly be viableкрс яhina and India cannot be equaled to Lesotho дless than о,ммм,ммм inhabitantsе or all the more Tuvalu with the population less than нс,мммк Probablyи for some time the mobility of partnerships within the World System will increaseи the arising coalitions may turn out to be chimericalи ephemeralи or fantasticк In the course of search for most stableи advantageousи and adequate organizational supranational forms various and even rapidly changing intermediary forms may ocй curи where the players of the world and regional political arenas will be searching for most advantageous and convenient blocks and agreementsк For exampleи if populaй tion number and other parameters will be taken into account at decisionйmaking дand quota distributionеирт countries and participants may block with each other basing on the relative advantages of everyone in order to accept a decision advantageous to them дsimilar to political partiesек Howeverи some of the new unions and associations may eventually turn from temporary into constant ones and accept specific supranaй tional formsк Some new imperatives of global law will start being worked out in the same proй cessк This idea is quite supported by the events connected with the modern global criй sisи in particular the Gйом meetingsк Direction towards such supranational regulation рск The EU experience shows that this substantially restrains the development processи while such rules in the global representations will simply block it upк ртк There exists an index of national power measurement which integrates GDP measurementsи deй fense expensesи population and the state of technologyк Some indexes may serve as a basis for instituй tion at the counting of quotes and votesк яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | пхх forms is obviousи though it is unclear whether namely Gйом will become a constant organи as ом is possibly too great a numberк Howeverи as it has been stated aboveи another variant of leading players’ club expansion is possibleк юringing the number of ‘G club’ members up to at least нни iкeки у plus юRIя countries could already make this organ more influential than it is todayк Howeverи presidential meetings once a year or even more rarelyи and even ministerial meetings do not su ceк Such meetings bear more of a ritual than practical characterк In order to make such an organ not just influй entialи but a real global oneи at least de factoи it is necessary to arrange the formats of negotiationsи consultationsи private agreements etcк on various levels and in different combinationsк One more formи much less likely butи in our opinionи much more desirableи would be the form of certain union representationк It would be reasonable to create a cerй tain organ representing нм–нс leading establishments of the world дEUи OэSи LэSи яISи etcкек Its sessions could allow representing the whole world through a limited number of representativesи while within the frames of representatives’ powers the unions and coalitions would have an opportunity for better understanding of their common interй estsк Even such a dialogue in itself could be usefulк The stability of new geopolitical and geoeconomic forms will depend on numerй ous factorsк Howeverи historical experience shows the most stable ones to be those with not only particular advantages and objective necessityи but also with certain nonй political bases for uniting дiкeки geographicalи culturalи economicи ideological etcкек эs regards the particular reasons for the convergence of certain societiesи it should be taken into account that in the condition of a certain bifurcation which the world is currently going throughи new lines and vectors contributing to the countries uniting into supranational establishmentsи unionsи groupsи blocs and clusters depend on a variety of reasonsи among which a certain feature of proximity may turn out to be criticalк юeside geographical proximityи economic relations and common political дgeopoliticalе interestsи the proximity of culture and mentality дiкeки civilizational a nity and similarityе can be the strongest in many casesк These politicalи culturalи and reliй gious specific features may lead to the creation of some special regional or even interй regional supranational approximation modelsк For exampleи яhilean political scientist Talavera asks whether there is a special Latin way of action in the globalized worldы He states there is such a way and quite particular indicators exist which confirm thisк Furй ther onи he points at the formation of a development variant implying the coexistence of socioeconomic order based on openness and free market relations дiкeки a purely рмм | Grinin в Korotayev Western phenomenon—Lк Gки эк Kкеи with conservative socioreligious regime дTalavй eraи оммоеки iкeки let us addи a cultural form typical for a part of the old Europeк Naturallyи the movement towards the new world order will proceed at different levelsк The regional level is very importantк Regional leaders gather power very quickй lyч consequentlyи they will probably play a more significant role than nowкру юesidesи some regional states will start playing the key role in the whole geopolitical dispoй sition in huge territoriesк Nowadaysи according to some opinionsи Iran is starting to play such a key role дseeи eкgки юykov et al., оммхц нмн–нмоек The eminent role of reй gional states will be revealed not only in geopolitical and geoeconomic aspectsи but alsoи so to sayи in geocultural aspectи which would be in no way less important than the first twoкрф It is not improbable thatи responding to the probable deficit of global governanceи nonйgovernmental actors will form networks concentrated on particular problemsкрх Howeverи neither the role of NGOs nor networks should be exaggeratedк The main part in the formation of a new world order will most probably be played by statesи while supranational unions of all formats and forms will be gathering strengthк э coordination centre is desperately neededи without it the net world will become an uncontrolled conglomerateк юesidesи there is a prevailing stereotype on the necesй sity of some global institutionsи so they will be aspired toи more or less successfullyк Thusи the question of the coordinating political center of the World System remains exceedingly importantк If some collective political дcoordinationе center дwith limited rightsе could be createdи the coexistence of other functional centers could become more possible and systemicи interactiveксм Namely states and especially supranational рук We have already mentioned in our previous works that the level of economy and economic relaй tions development in certain peripheral countries most probably belongs to industrial type than to postindustrial oneк эccordinglyи the level of nationalism is higher thereи in large regional states it is just suitable for playing the hegemonic role in their regions дGrininи оммфaек In some эsian and Latin эmerican states which are economically rising and ideologically consolidatingи ‘nationalism’ frequently emerges as a state ideology shared by the populationк эlong with thatи an aspiration arises to support one’s own sovereign rightsи including the right for nuclear weapons etcк дIt is also a convenient way of attracting the attention of international community to the country for a long time likeи eкgки Iran has been doingке Thusи a successful nuclear test became a subject of national pride for the Indiansи though it caused strong anxiety in the USэ and Western countries дSrinivasи оммоц хрек рфк In юernstein’s дюernsteinи оммоц орсе opinionи countries lying beyond the West and su ciently powй erful in economyи such as Japan дon the penetration of the Japanese mass culture into эsian countries see эokiи оммоеи or in cultureи such as Indiaи are capable of influencing the global cultureк рхк One could mention as examples of such networks the Financial Stability Forumи the яarbon Seй questration Leadership Forumи and the International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy дNational Intelligence яouncilи оммфц фсек смк Such a centre could rally the separate centers of the World Systems differing in their innovativityи industrialityи financial capabilitiesи etcк Even though the rivalry between them would not disappearи it would become more productiveк яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | рмн unions are most likely to be capable of moving towards the creation of such a centerк Search for global responses to major challenges will lead to various types of soluй tions at the highest political levelи from the ones aimed at forming an order capable of functioning for decades дhuge experience of the омth century proves this to be quite possibleе to a mass of nonйsystemicи pragmaticи and palliative onesк Howeverи even impulsive decisions allow starting the formation of a new system of decisions and inй stitutionsи coalitions and unionsк On the other handи the success of certain institutions will allow creating some projections on world restructuringк Thusи we regard a wide range of decisionsи institutionally and juristically formalй izedи aimed at systemic building of a new worldч globalи but for narrow problemsи whichи along with important but less global decisions will gradually create the outlines of a new world orderк In нс–ос years our world will be both similar to the present and already substantially different from itк Global changes are forthcomingи but not all of them will take a distinct shapeк яontrary to thatи new contents may be covered by old outdated surfaces дas in the Late Middle эges the emerging centralized state was not quite distinctly seen behind the traditional system of relationships between the crownи major seniorsи and citiesек One may say that these will be such changes that could prepare the world to the transition to a new phase of globalization дit will be very fortunate if there are grounds to call it the phase of sustainable globalizationе whose contours are not clear yetк Finallyи the future epoch will be an epoch of not only new coalitionsи but also the one of new global institutionsи and new international technologies of multilateral дdipй lomaticи socialи and culturalе cooperationи on which much will dependк For exampleи the format of international congresses and multilateral agreements that originated after the Napoleonic Wars and reached its apogee in the омth century is likely to be pressed by other formats which most probably will be based on modern commuй nication technologiesк Thusи some standing commission that work not at a bargainй ing tableи but through the video conference format could become a convenient and rather lowйcost organ which could work permanently on solving certain problemsк эs яharles 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юerkeleyи яэц University of яalifornia Pressк Frankи эк Gки and Gillsи юк Kк д dsке нххпк The World Systemц Five Hundred Years of Five Thousandы Londonц Routledgeк Gelbrasи Vк Gк оммук The яosta of яhina`s Economic Successк Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya хц от–прк In Russian д и к к к к хц от–прек Goldstoneи Jк нхффк East and West in the Seventeenth яenturyц political crises in Stuart Englandи Ottoman Turkey and Ming яhinaк яomparative Studies in Society and History пмц нмп–нрок Goldstoneи Jк нххнк Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern Worldк юerkeleyи яэц University of яalifornia Pressк Greenspanи эк оммук The эge of Turbulenceц эdventures in a New Worldк Londonц Penguinк Grigorievи Lки and Salikhovи Mк оммфк Financial яrisis—оммфц Entering the World Recessionк Voprosy ekonomiki ноц оу–рск In Russian д и ки и к оммфк —оммфц к ноц оу–рсек рмр | Grinin в Korotayev Grininи Lк Eк оммфaк Globalization and the Models of Transformation of Sovereignty in Western and NonйWestern яountriesк In Kulpinи Eк Sк дedкеи Person and Natureц ‘яhallenge and Response’ дppк ст–ффек Moscowц IэTsйEnergiyaк In Russian д и к к к ц« »л к к к и к ст–ффк кц й ек Grininи Lк Eк оммфbк Globalization and Sovereigntyц Why do States эbandon their Sovereign Prerogativesы эge of Globalization нц оо–пок Grininи Lк Eк оммф к Unwanted яhild of Globalizationк The Remarks on the яrisisк Vek globalizatsii оц рт–спк In Russian д и к к к к оц рт–спек Grininи Lк Eк оммх к The Global яrisis as a яrisis of Overproduction of Moneyк Filosofia i obschestvo нц с–пок In Russian д и к к к нц с–поек Grininи Lк Eк оммхbк The Psychology of Economic яrisesк Istoricheskaya psikhologia i sotsiologia istorii оц ус–ххк In Russian д и к к к оц ус–ххек Grininи Lк Eк оммхcк Modern яrisisц New Lines and яlassics of Genreк Istoriya i sovremennost нц п–пок In Russian д и к к ц к нц п–поек Grininи Lк Eк оммхdк State and Historical Processк The Political яut of Historical Processк оnd edк oscowц URSSк In Russian д и к к к к ой к ц ек Grininи Lк Eк оммхeк Globalization and the Transformation of National Sovereigntyк эucklandк In She eldи Jк дedsкеи Systemic Developmentц Local Solutions in a Global Environment дppк ру–спек ISяE Publishingц Goodyearк Grininи Lк Eк оммхfк Transformation of Sovereignty and Globalizationк In Grininи Lк Eки юeliaevи Dк Dки and Korotayevи эк Vк дedsкеи Hierarchy and Power in the History of яivilizationsц Political эspects of Modernity дppк нхн–оорек Moscowц LibrocomлURSSк Grininи Lк Eк оммхgк Understanding the яrisisк Global яrisis as the яrisis of Overproduction of Moneyк Filosophiya i obschestvo нц с–пок in Russian д и к к к нц с–поек Grininи Lк Eк оммхhк The State in the Past and in the Futureк Herald of the Russian эcademy of Sciences ухдсец рфм–рфтк Grininи Lк Eк омннк яhinese Joker in the World Packк Journal of Globalization Studies одоец у–орк Grininи Lк Eк омнок Macrohistory and Globalizationк Volgogradц Uchitelк Grininи Lк Eки and Korotayevи эк Vк оммхaк Social Macroevolutionц The Genesis and Transformation of the World Systemк Moscowц LIюROяOMк In Russian д ки и к к ц к кц ек и к й яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | рмс Grininи Lк Eки and Korotayevи эк Vк оммхbк Social Macroevolutionц Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitionsк World Futures тслуц руу–смтк Grininи Lк Eки and Korotayevи эк Vк омнмк Global яrisis in Retrospectц э юrief History of Rises and яrisesч From Lycurgus to эlan Greenspanк Moscowц LIюROяOMк In Russian д и к ки и к к ц ц к кц ек Grininи Lк Eки and Korotayevи эк Vк омннк The coming epoch of new coalitionsц possible Global scenarios World Futures тудфец спн–стпк Grininи Lк Eки Korotayevи эк Vки and Malkovи Sк Yuк омнмк э Mathematical Model of Juglar яycles and the яurrent Global яrisisк In Grininи Lки Korotayevи экиand Tauschи эк дedsкеи History в Mathematicsц Processes and Models дppк нпф–нфуек Volgogradц Uchitelк Haberlerи Gк нхтр [нхпу]к Prosperity and Depressionк Theoretical эnalysis of яyclical Movementsк яambridgeи Mэц Harvard University Pressк Hayekи Fк эк von нхпнк Prices and Productionк Londonц Routledgeк Hayekи Fк эк von нхппк Monetary Theory and the Trade яycleк Londonц Jonathan яapeк Heldи Dки and McGrewи эк дedsке оммпк The Global Transformation Readerц эn Introduction to the Globalization Debateк оnd edк яambridgeи UKц Polity Pressк Heldи Dки McGrewи эки Goldblattи Dки and Perratonи Jк нхххк Global Transformationsк Politicsи Economics and яultureк Stanfordи яэц Stanford University Pressк Hicksи Jк Rк нхрт [нхпх]к Value and яapitalц эn Inquiry into Some Fundamental Principles of Economic Theoryк Oxfordц яlarendon Pressк Hilferdingи Rк нхфн [нхнм]к Finance яapitalк э Study of the Latest Phase of яapitalist Developmentк Londonц Routledgeк Hinz Rки Heinz Pк Rudolphи Pablo эntolínи and Juan Yermoк омнмк Evaluating the Financial Performance of Pension Fundsк Washingtonи Dяц The International юank for Reconstruction and Development л The World юankк Inozemtsevи Vк оммфк Postйэmerican World—Dilettantes’ Dream and a яomplex Realityк Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya пц п–нск In Russian д к« »ц к пц п–нсек и Ivanterи эк оммхк Why do Everybody эvoid Loans like the Plagueы Expertк The юest эrticlesк The эnatomy of Recessionц ху–ххк In Russian д и к к к к ц ху–ххек Jervisи Rк оммск эmerican Foreign Policy in a New Eraк New Yorkи NYц Routledgeк Johnsonи Kк Lки and de Graafи Fк Jк оммх Modernizing Pension Fund Legal Standards for the онst яenturyк Network for Sustainable Financial Marketsц яonsultation Paper Noк ок URLц httpцллwwwкoecdкorgлdataoecdлофлтолротумуоскpdf Juglarи як нфток Des яrises яommerciales et de leur retour périodique en Franceи en эngleterre et aux ÉtatsйUnisк Parisц Guillauminк рмт | Grinin в Korotayev Juglarи як нффхк Des яrises яommerciales et de leur retour périodique en Franceи en эngleterre et aux ÉtatsйUnisк оnd edк Parisц эlcanк Kaganи Rк оммпк Of Paradise and Powerк эmerica and Europe in the New World Orderк New Yorkи NYц Knopf Publishersк Kanayevи Yeки and Kurilkoи эк омнмк SouthйEastern эsia in the яonditions of World Financialй Economical яrisisк Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya оц пф–ртк In Russian д и ки и к й й к оц пф–ртек Karsbolи Dк омнмк I have a ‘юear’ View on яhinaк RюKк Final Issue нц нмм–нмпк In Russian д и к « » к к нц нмм–нмпек Keynesи Jк Mк нхптк The General Theory of Employmentи Interestи and Moneyк Londonц Macmillanк Khalturinaи Dк эки and Korotayevи эк Vк оммхк System monitoring of global and regional developmentк In Khalturinaи Dк эки and Korotayevи эк Vк дedsкеи System monitoringц global and regional development дppк нн–нффек Moscowц LibrokomлURSSк In Russian д и к ки и к к к ц л к к к и к к и к нн–нффк кц лURSSек Kirichenkoи Eк Vки Martsinkevichи Vк Iки Vasilevskyи Eк Kки Zapadinskayaи Lк Iки Lebedevaи Yeк эки Nikolskayaи Gк Kки and Perovaи Mк Kк оммфк The United States of эmericaк In Dynkin оммфц нфс–опмк In Russian д и к ки и к ки и к ки и к и и к ки и к ки и к к к ц омом л к к к и к нфс–опмк кц ек Korotayevи эки Malkovи эки and Khaltourinaи Dк оммтк Introduction to Social Macrodynamicsц яompact Macromodels of the World System Growthк Moscowц URSSк Korotayevи эки Zinkinaи Jки and юogevolnovи Jк омннк Kondratieff waves in global invention activity днхмм–оммфек Technological Forecasting and Social яhange уфц смп–снмк Kudrinи эк оммхк The World Financial яrisis and its Impact on Russiaк Voprosy ekonomiki нц х–нмк In Russian д и к к нц х–нмек Lanи Vк Iк нхутк The USэц From World War I to World War IIк Moscowц Naukaк In Russian д к к ц к кц ек и Lescureи Jк нхмук Des яrises Générales et Périodiques de Surproductionк Parisц Lк Larose et Forcelк Maddisonи эк оммук яontours of the World Economyи н–омпмк Oxfordц Oxford University Pressк Maddisonи эк омнмк World Populationи GDP and Per яapita GDPи экDк н–оммпк URLц wwwкggdcк netлmaddison яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | рму Mandelbaumи Mк оммск The яase for Goliathц How эmerica эcts as the World’s Government in the TwentyйFirst яenturyк New Yorkи NYц Public эffairsк Marxи Kк нххп [нфхпи нфхр]к яapitalк Volк I–II л Translк by Dк Fernbachк Harmondsworthц Penguin Groupк Meliantsevи Vк эк оммхк Developed and Developing яountries in the эge of Transformationsк Moscowц ID ‘Klyuchйя’к In Russian д и к к к кц « й »ек Mendelsonи Lк эк нхсх–нхтрк Theory and History of Economic яrises and яyclesк Volsк н–пк Moscowц Izdatelstvo sotsialnoйeconomicheskoi literaturyк In Russian д и к к к к н–пк кц й ек Mikhailovи Dк Mк омммк The World Financial Marketsк Trends and Toolsк Moscowц Ekzamenк In Russian д и к к к к ц ек Mikheevи Vк Vк оммфк яhinaк In Dynkin оммфц пмп–похк In Russian д оммфц пмп–похек и к к к ц Minskyи Hк Pк оммск Induced Investment and юusiness яyclesк яheltenhamц Elgarк Misesи Lк von нхфн [нхно]к The Theory of Money and яreditк Indianapolisи INц Liberty Fundк Movchanи эк омнмк The Gold Rushк Forbes дRussian Editionе Januaryц рхк In Russian д к к Forbes ц рхек National Intelligence яouncil оммфк Global Trends омосц э Transformed Worldк Washingtonи Dкякц National Intelligence яouncilк Naumovи Iк оммфк The Pension яapital Fund of Russia дPFRе in the яurrent Year Sustained нм billion roubles of Losses from the Investment of Funds in the State Securitiesк Nezavisimaya gazeta нхкнок URLц httpцллwwwкngкruлeconomicsломмфйнойнхлр_pensiaк htmlк In Russian д и к [ ] нм к к нхкнок URLц httpцллwwwкngкruлeconomicsломмфйнойнхлр_ pensiaкhtmlек Nyeи Jк Sк Jrк оммок The Paradox of эmerican Powerк Why the World’s Only Superpower яan’t Go It эloneк New Yorkи NYц Oxford University Pressк Pantinи Vк Iки and Lapkinи Vк Vк оммтк Philosophy of Historical Forecastingц Rhythms of History and the Perspectives of the World Development in the First Half of the онst яenturyк Dubnaц Feniks зк In Russian д и к ки и к к оммтк ц XXI к ц зек Platonovaи Iк Nки Nagovitsinи эк Gки and Korotchenyaи Vк Mк оммхк Rearrangement of the World Monetary System and the Position of Russiaк Moscowц LIюROяOMлURSSк In Russian д и к ки и к ки и к к к кц лURSSек рмф | Grinin в Korotayev и Renwickи Nк омммк эmerica’s World Identityк The Politics of Exclusionк юasingstokeц Macmillan Pressк Samuelsonи Pк эки and Nordhausи Wк Dк оммск Economicsк нфth edк New Yorkи NYц McGrawйHillк Samuelsonи Pк эки and Nordhausи Wк Dк оммхк Macroeconomicsк нхth edк New Yorkи NYц McGrawйHillк Schäferи Uк оммхк Der яrash des Kapitalismusк Frankfurtц яampus Verlagк Shtefanи Yeк оммфк эmerican Pension яapital Funds have lost о trillion dollarsк Novyi region ок мфкнмк URLц httpцллwwwкnrокruлeconomyлнххфпмкhtmlк In Russian д и к к ок мфкнмк й ц httpцллwwwкnrокruлeconomyлнххфпмкhtmlек Sorosи Gк нххфк The яrisis of Global яapitalismк Open Society Endangeredк Londonц Public эffairsк Srinivasи Tк оммок ‘a Tryst with Destiny’к The Indian яase of яultural Globalizationк In юerger and Huntington оммоц фх–ннук Suetinи эк оммхк On the яauses of яurrent Financial яrisisк Voprosy ekonomiki нц рм–снк In Russian д и к к нц рм–снек Talaveraи эк Fк оммок Trends toward Globalization in яhileк In юerger and Huntington оммоц осм–охск Thurowи Lк як нххтк The Future of яapitalismц how today’s economic forces shape tomorrow’s worldк New Yorkи NYц Morrowк Tinbergenи Jк нхутк Reshaping the international orderц э report to the яlub of Romeк New Yorkи NYц Duttonк Tookeи Tк эк нфпф–нфсук э History of Prices and the State of the яirculationк Londonц Longmanк Tuganйюaranovskyи Mк Iк нхсрк Periodic Industrial яrisesк эnnals of the Ukranian эcademy of эrts and Sciences in the United States плпц урс–фмок Tuganйюaranovskyи Mк Iк оммф [нхнп]к The Periodical Industrial яrisesк Moscowц Directmedia Publishingк In Russian д й и к к оммф [нхнп]к к кц ек Van Der Weeи Hк нххмк Histoire economique mondiale нхрс–нххмк Parisц эcademia Duculotк Wallersteinи Iк нхфук WorldйSystems эnalysisк Social Theory Today дppк пмх–порек яambridgeи UKц Polity Pressк Wangи Hк Hк омнмк Myth of яhina as a Superpowerк URLц httpцллhelenhwangкnetломнмлмрл mythйofйchinaйasйaйsuperpowerл Wilkinsonи Dк нхххк Unipolarity without Hegemonyк International Studies Review ндоец нрн– нуок Wolfи Mк оммск The Paradox of Thriftц Excess Savings are Storing up Trouble for the World Economyк Financial Times нпкмтк яhapter нфц Will The Global яrisis Lead To Global Transformationsы | рмх World юank омнок World Development Indicators Onlineк Washingtonи Dкякц World юankк URLц httpцллwebкworldbankкorgлWюSITEлEXTERNэLлDэTэSTэTISTIяSлмииcontentMDKц омпхфхфт~pagePKцтрнппнсм~piPKцтрнппнус~theSitePKцопхрнхиммкhtml Yanи Yunxiang оммок Managed Globalizationк State Power and яultural Transition in яhinaк In юerger and Huntington оммоц нх–рук Zakariaи Fк оммхк The Postйэmerican Worldк New Yorkи NYц Nortonк Zoromeи эк оммук яoncept of Offshore Financial яentersц In Search of an Operational Definitionк Washingtonи Dяц IMFк Zotinи эк омнмк The World яentral юankк эs a Result of the яrisis the IMF can become a Global Financial Regulatorк Who Makes Profit of itы RюKк The Final Issue нц рт–рхк In Russian д й и к к к ы к № нц рт–рхек рнм | Grinin в Korotayev