Increasing Monsoon unpredictability and erraticism linked with rising Global Warming in the Indian subcontinent with a special reference to June 2013 excessive rainfall in Delhi.  (Essay)

Arpita  Bhagat

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) - Canada UK's Department for International Development (DFID) UK Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA)

Rainfall data are used for a variety of purposes and are required at a range of time scales. Real time rainfall data are required for flood forecasting and hydropower and reservoir operation. Summaries of storm rainfall event data are required for assessment of the severity of events at weekly or monthly time scales. The present study examines the general rainfall pattern of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, using yearly rainfall data for 61 years (1951-2012). The frequency of occurrence of rainfall of various magnitudes is also important in the application of mathematical models for synthesizing hydrological data. Departure analysis in the study area suggested decrease in annual rainfall and increasing drought condition in the study area.

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Proceedings of the Monsoon [+ other] Airs Symposium, convened by Monsoon Assemblages at the University of Westminster 20,21 April 2017. Monsoon Assemblages is a research project funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Unions's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant No. 679873).

Doon valley in Dehradun district is one of the picturesque valley in Asia at the foot hills of the beautiful Himalayan range, whose lofty and young chain present many fascinating and natural scenic formation that have been attracting people of different disciplines and interests. The knowledge of climatic variations of Doon valley is essential as it is an environmentally sensitive area. Doon valley is well known for its pleasant climatic conditions and there seems to be much variability in its climate. The climatic situation has undergone a change as compared to last decade and fluctuations were observed even within 1-5 years gap. The ever changing dynamics with respect to space and time makes it essential to have systematic and updated knowledge. It helps in proper management and regulation of our natural resources. Significance of remote sensing is its ability to provide quick and accurate knowledge of the area. Keeping in view the significance of climate, a study was conducted on...

Enhancing resilience of rural communities to climate change requires a clear understanding of micro-level perceptions and adaptation issues and their integration with the rural developmental framework. We collected household level data to understand grass-root perspectives on climate variability, impacts and barriers to adaptation in two different districts; Moga, Punjab and Mahbubnagar, Telangana. Further the study uses meteorological data to validate farmers perceptions. The results show that change in the quantum and distribution of rainfall, rising temperature, ground water depletion, lower farm income, higher unemployment and rural migration are some of the major impacts of climate change. Moreover, farmers perceptions on climate variability were consistent with the observed climate trend. Against climatic variations farmers were making shift to crop varieties of suitable duration, curtailing expenditure, borrowing and participating in employment guarantee schemes. However, far...

The Himalayas have become synonymous with the hydropower developments for larger electricity demands of India’s energy sector. In the Himachal Himalayas though, there are only three large storage dams with more than 1000 megawatts (hereafter MW) capacity that have very serious environmental issues. However, hundreds of small runoff-river hydropower plants across the Himachal Himalayas are a serious threat to the river regimes and Himalayan biota. There are 965 identified hydropower projects (hereafter HPPs) having a potential capacity of 27,436 MW in the Himachal Pradesh as of December 2019 as per the Directorate of Energy of the state. Out of the 965 identified, 216 are commissioned, including less than 5 MW plants, with an installed capacity of 10,596 MW, and were operational by December 2019. Only 58 projects are under construction among the identified with an installed capacity of 2351 MW, 640 projects are in various stages of clearance and investigation with an installed capaci...

Hydrogeologically, the Indian territories can be divided into three major groups: unconsolidated, semi-unconsolidated and consolidated (or hard rock) formations. Indo-Gangetic plains, dune soil of Thar Desert in the north-west and coastal alluvium of Quaternary to recent ages characterized with the primary porosity form the first group of unconsolidated formations. The Indo-Gangetic plain is traversed by major Himalayan rivers like Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yamuna and their tributaries.

One of the life-changing consequences (of floods and erosion in Assam) is Displacement. This results not only in loss of livelihoods but also has wide-reaching socio-economic and cultural effects. Thus, due to such disasters not only families but communities too are being displaced at large. This compels them to find temporary shelter and begin life from scratch. The role of the state has been highly negligible, with displacement not being perceived as an ‘issue’ to be addressed. A more holistic approach is thus needed to take socio-economic, cultural, political as well as ecological considerations into account.

In the last couple of decades, there have been extensive debates over the existence of global warming, today, the debate is largely over and a consensus has emerged in the global scientific community that Global Climate Change is occurring and that it will have a dramatic and adverse impact on the planet earth’s ecosystem. According to a report for the World Bank, by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) a German government-funded institute: the increase in earth’s temperature could result in a sea-level rise of 0.5 to 1 meter with higher levels also possible, by the year 2100 AD, affecting some of the most densely populated and vulnerable coastal cities and mega polis’s located in Bangladesh, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Philippines, USA, and Vietnam as well as small Island Nations all over the world especially in South Pacific like Fiji, Kiribati., Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Federated States of Nauru, Palau, Samoa and Solomon Islands. With global warming, the glaciers are melting and these once majestic glacial mass which used to stretch to the edge of cities like La Paz and El Alto end up high in the mountains. The Glaciers are melting on all the six continents as well as in the Arctic Circle. If present warming trends continue, all glaciers in the Glacier National Park could be gone by 2030 AD. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate and contribute to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, many of which have already begun. India has been identified as one amongst the 27 countries that are most vulnerable to sea level rise caused by global warming. No one knows how long our planet can sustain and take on this onslaught, what we do know for sure is that climate change especially due to increasing levels of Green House Gases is already harming the fragile ecosystems and humankind all over the world. Its reality can be seen in the melting glaciers, disintegrating polar ice caps, thawing permafrost, changing monsoon patterns, rising sea levels, and fatal heat waves. Scientists are not the only ones talking about El Nino and La Nina which cause global changes in both temperatures and rainfall, it’s also been discussed at length now by Academia, Civil Societies, and Political Leadership, all over the world. ‎ From the apple growers in the orchards of Himachal Pradesh to the farmers in the drought-prone region of Vidharbha and those living on the disappearing islands of Sunder bans Delta a sprawling archipelago, with a core area of 10000 square kilometres straddling between the Indian state of West Bengal and Bangladesh are already struggling with the impacts of climate change. India has been involved in constructive engagements on Climate Change and Sustainable Development since the inception of United Nations Environment Programme in 1972, through Rio Declaration Earth Summit 1992, Kyoto Protocol 1997, Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable Development 2002, Copenhagen and the Paris Accord of 2009 and 2016 respectively within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). India is also a party to five major international conventions like the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN), United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization-World Heritage Committee (UNESCO-WHC) etc.

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The summer (June through September) monsoon 2020 has been very erratic with episodes of heavy and devastating rains, landslides and catastrophic winds over South Asia (India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh), East Asia (China, Korea, and Japan), and Southeast Asia (Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia). The withdrawal of the summer monsoon over India was delayed by two weeks. The monsoon season over East Asia has been the longest. China recorded a Dam burst in the 20th century. Furthermore, the Korean Peninsula has experienced back-to-back severe tropical cyclones. Could the lockdown activities initiate to control the COVID-19 spread a possible cause for these major episodes?The strict enforcement of the lockdown regulations has led to a considerable reduction of air pollutants – dust and aerosols throughout the world. A recent study based on satellites and merged products has documented a statistically significant mean reduction of about 20%, 8% and 50% ...

During boreal summer, the troposphere over southern hemisphere is warming at a faster rate compared to that over northern hemisphere, and the intensity of the general atmospheric as well as the Asian-Indian monsoon circulation shows decreasing trend. Over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific (Niño region), the easterlies are weakening and the SSTs rising, and there is a tendency for occurrence of frequent and intense El Niño than La Niña. Rain-producing weather systems (convergences) are frequent and intense along the western Indian subcontinent, and weaker and infrequent over Indo-Gangetic plains, central India and Bay of Bengal. Consequently, monsoon rainfall is somewhat subdued over Indo-Gangetic plains and central India. The La Niña-El Niño phenomenon provides vital information for extreme rainfall activities across India. To understand effect of the phenomenon on the hydro-ecosystems of the country, difference between La Niña and El Niño years in the parameters of the hyd...

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Chennai flash floods of year 2015 and Sumerian’s flood story (written at about 5000 years back) are considered for reflections along with the Tsunami of year 2004. People of Tamil Nadu and especially Chennai have direct experience facing the flash floods during 2004 and 2015. The Sumerian flood story is revisited through recent translation works. These flood situations are considered in the historical context reflecting and relating in the context of life-long learning and professional development of practicing civil engineers. We find that certain ancient wisdoms are still valid, particularly locating or selection of residential building sites on high rise lands;this is apart from what we have as advanced technologies in prediction of floods in general. People have been facing floods and managing them through ancient times as recorded in Sumerian flood story. Moreover, in the case of Tsunami during 2004 and flash floods of Chennai in the year 2015, avoidance could be a preferred general rule, particularly while selecting best sites for house construction. The Chennai flash floods of year 2015 raises issues on professional ethics, practice and informing the public on city planning and development for appropriate decision making.

Using information contained in the eighteenth to twentieth century British administrative documents, preserved in the National Archives of India (NAI), we present a 218-year (1729-1947 AD) record of socioeconomic disruptions and human impacts (famines) associated with 'rain failures' that affected the semi-arid regions (SARs) of southern India. By mapping the southern Indian famine record onto long-term spatiotemporal measures of regional rainfall variability, we demonstrate that the SARs of southern India repeatedly experienced famines when annual rainfall reduced by ~ one standard deviation (1 SD), or more, from long-term averages. In other words, 'rain failures' listed in the colonial documents as causes of extreme socioeconomic disruptions, food shortages and human distress (famines) in the southern Indian SARs were fluctuations in precipitation well within the normal range of regional rainfall variability and not extreme rainfall deficits (≥ 3 SD). Our study demonstrates that extreme climate events were not necessary conditions for extreme socioeconomic disruptions and human impacts rendered by the colonial era famines in peninsular India. Based on our findings, we suggest that climate change risk assessement should consider the potential impacts of more frequent low-level anomalies (e.g. 1 SD) in drought prone semi-arid regions.

Indian agriculture is the largest user of rainfall, surface and groundwater resources. Some of the large river systems feedings the canal systems and the groundwater aquifers, like the Indus, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and their several tributaries have their origin in the Himalayas. A large part of the discharge of these river systems is fed through melting of the snow and glaciers. Although there is a lack of adequate scientific evidence on regional scales, a number of recent observational and modelling studies do suggest that the climate is changing. According to IPCC, the most significant consequences of climate change will be its impact on the hydrologic cycle, as already experienced in many parts of the world including India. Changes in precipitation intensity and duration will probably be the main factors altering the hydrologic cycle leading to more floods and droughts. Availability or scarcity of water will vary greatly depending on the region. The impact of climate change...

lack of action orientation is compounded by a general lack of public awareness of the risks associated with climate change (Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, 2005). Additionally, there is a mismatch in terms and scales. While the climate adaptation strategies like flood prevention and management need to take a long‐term view and plan for the metropolitan region as a whole, most planning interventions address short‐term needs and do not take a city‐wide view (Murgida & Natenzon, 2007). “By analyzing who participated in the planning process and in which areas they did so, it becomes evident that the vast majority of interventions were partial, some were very specific, and a few encompass different areas and spheres” (Pírez, 2008). These issues become further complicated for the metropolitan region due to the overlap and aggregation of administrative units that lack a central governing authority. The community of scientists and researchers has taken on an unusual ...

Monsoons are the backbone and important water sources for the farmers of Indian Subcontinent. So onset and withdrawal phases, Break monsoon and associated factors are to be clearly understood and forecasted atleast one season in advance. So that the farmer is physically ready for his agricultural activities. Other wise the yield reduction will be considerable. As per the suggestions of the viewers some latest figures and information and also the impact of climate change on monsoons has been included..

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Increasing Monsoon unpredictability and erraticism linked with rising Global Warming in the Indian subcontinent with a special reference to June 2013 excessive rainfall in Delhi. (Essay)