Climate Futures Report-online.pdf

Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project TAYANAH O’DONNELL AND JASON ALEXANDRA I Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to acknowledge the following people: the participants who gave their time for both days of the workshop; our government partners and collaborators: Alison Moore and Catherine Keirnan of the Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate, ACT Government; and Melinda Hillary and Storm O’Toole of the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage; Jo Mummery for internal review of the scenarios, facilitator assistance during the workshops, and review of the final draft; Professor Barbara Norman for final review, Alison Foulsham for editorial contributions, and Coco Lui for graphic design. Citation: O’Donnell, T. and Alexandra, J. (2018) Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region (Canberra Urban and Regional Futures, University of Canberra) ISBN: 978-1-74088-473-0 Cover photo: Canberra city centre (Civic), view from the top of Mount Ainslie. Source: source: Stock image II Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project CONTENTS Acknowledgements II Contents III Executive summary V Background V Purpose and approach V Findings and responses to the scenarios V VII Project findings 1 Introduction – innovation, collaboration and climate adaptation 1 1.1 The project 1 1.2 The region 1 1.3 Background to the project 1 1.4 An introduction to using scenarios for adaption planning 2 3 2 Background to project 2.1 Project aims, scope and approach 3 2.2 ACT Climate Change Strategy 4 2.3 Implementation Status Report of the ACT Government’s Climate Change Policy 4 2.4 New South Wales South East Tablelands Regional Plan 4 5 3 Methods and approach 3.1 Overview 5 3.2 The scenarios used to generate dialogue 5 3.3 The rationale and approach to the scenarios 6 3.4 Introducing and using the scenarios at the workshop 6 9 4 Climate adapted futures: scenario responses and findings 4.1 Introduction 9 4.2 Dystopian scenario 9 Box 1 Summary of the dystopian scenario 9 4.3 Utopia 12 Box 2 Scenario 2: Utopian growth and prosperity 12 4.4 Distilling responses from the dystopian and utopian scenarios 15 4.5 Transformational change 17 Box 3 Transformational change scenario - summary 17 4.6 Incremental change 20 Box 4 Incremental change scenario - summary 20 4.7 Evaluation – the follow up survey 21 5 Conclusion 23 6 Bibliography 25 III Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Appendix 1: Project summary briefing note 27 Regulatory Boundaries and Regional Collaboration for Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region 27 Appendix 2: The legal context 29 2.1 Introduction 29 2.2 Specific legal avenues 32 32 Appendix 3: The Scenarios 3.1 Introduction 32 3.2 Summaries of the four scenarios 32 3.3 Detailed scenarios 33 3.3.1 Scenario 1: Dystopia 33 3.3.2 Scenario 2: Utopian growth and prosperity 35 3.3.3 Scenario 3: Transformational change 37 3.3.4 Scenario 4: Incremental change 38 Appendix 4: project methods and workshop agenda 41 Workshop agenda 41 Appendix 5: Post-Workshop Questionnaire 43 Appendix 6: Human Ethics Approval 44 IV Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BACKGROUND Regional scale collaboration on climate change adaptation is an important consideration for governments. This report is based on a project that explored the relationship between legal and policy • dystopia (maladaptation); • utopia (ideal outcomes); • transformational change (radical shift in perceptions of the need for change); and frameworks and cross-border collaboration on climate change adaptation • in the Australian Capital Region (ACR). Canberra Urban and Regional incremental change (business as usual). Futures (CURF) delivered a project that used scenarios to explore The utopian future scenario was used to explore pathways to achieve climate adaptation. A two-day workshop in October 2017 was a pivotal positive outcomes for the region. In contrast, the dystopia scenario part of this mixed methods project. It was held in the emergency services painted a bleak future and was used to explore ways to reduce the ‘war cabinet room’ beside Canberra airport—a sobering place for a likelihood of compounding negative impacts. The project explicitly workshop on climate adaptation that started by exploring a scenario recognised that that the scenarios are approximations, somewhat about dystopian futures. limited by unknown outcomes of how technology will influence future trajectories, or how governments will change law, regulation, and policy. Participants included senior government decision-makers, representatives However, they served their designated purpose of providing participants from non-government organisations (NGOs), and scientific experts. The with a sounding board against which to test ideas about ways to enhance NSW and the ACT Governments, and local councils including Yass Valley regional collaboration on climate adaptation. Council, Snowy—Monaro Regional Council, and Queanbeyan—Palerang Regional Council were represented. Experts from CSIRO, the Australian FINDINGS AND RESPONSES TO THE SCENARIOS National University and the University of Canberra also participated. At the workshop, participants responded to the four scenarios. The project was not focused on revising the climate projections for the ACR CURF delivered the project after facilitating its co-design with the but rather on ways of anticipating, preparing, adapting and responding Office of Environment and Heritage (NSW Government) and the ACT to these future probabilities via our governance and institutionalised Government in order to develop a collaborative and policy relevant capabilities, including through our laws, policies and regulations, and research project for the entire ACR. The project was funded by the ACT arrangements for collaboration. Government’s Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate to support implementation of the ACT Government’s DYSTOPIAN SCENARIO Climate Change Strategy Action Item 9. Several major challenges were identified under the dystopian scenario. In this scenario climate change impacts are substantial, resulting in PURPOSE AND APPROACH significant negative social, economic and environmental impacts across The project aimed to generate research outcomes about the nature and the region. role of policy and legal settings in enhancing collaboration on climate adaptation. The project examined the question of what legal, policy and Participants viewed these challenges as interconnected, expressing regulatory settings enable collaborative approaches to climate adaptation a strong desire to use policy settings to avoid a dystopian future and in the ACR? minimise the negative impacts. In a dystopian future climate change impacts are compounded by: To explore relationships between law, policy and ‘climate adapted futures’ the research team engaged participants in a scenario planning exercise. • Four contrasting scenarios were used as the basis for visualisation, broken community—government relationships leading to poor organisational capacity and miscommunication that limits effective discussion and exploration of different possible futures. These took as governmental responses and escalates the breakdown in order and trust; their starting point climate predictions that indicate the need for policies that anticipate and/or respond to hotter, dryer, and more flood prone conditions in the future. The scenarios explored were: • poor infrastructure, including fragmented public transport; • minimal or un-regulated building and ill-conceived settlement patterns; V Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project • stalled economic activity and minimal productive employment; futures (or help to avoid the dystopian one). These pathways were • declining government cooperation and regional governance in explored under either the transformational and/or incremental scenarios. disarray The former was characterised by an appetite for rapid and fundamental urban and rural communities becoming dysfunctional, ‘ghettos’, or change while in the latter only gradual changes were deemed possible. • suffering other negative social or health impacts; and • inadequate capacity for emergency management and disaster Key findings arising from exploring the transformational change pathways responses. included: • In response to this scenario participants expressed a strong desire to The ACR having the potential to be a leading regional model of transformational adaptation; avoid dystopian futures. They expressed views about the potential risk of • descending into a dystopian future. Perhaps due to the participant pool, A willingness to adopt a range of policy initiatives to drive many considered that building trust in functional governance and policy innovation and economic development, which in turn would drive regimes, including ensuring fair and competent regulation, has a core role employment and growth; • to play in avoiding a dystopian future. Recognition that strategic regional planning provides an important enabling tool for climate adapted futures; UTOPIAN SCENARIO • Adoption of a bold ‘regional vision’ with enabling policies; and The utopian scenario illustrated a favourable future in which the • Implementing robust yet flexible regulatory systems that support the strategic planning objectives. achievement of positive social, economic and environmental outcomes was inter-connected. In this scenario key stakeholders are actively engaged in climate mitigation, adaptation and sustainability initiatives While some participants suggested this scenario could have pushed further leading to positive human and ecosystem outcomes. Workshop in identification of transformative issues, challenges and opportunities, participants highlighted the following key directions as necessary to overall the discussion on transformational change indicated a willingness achieving this future: to drill into the details of change. Participants explored how to achieve substantive and positive change through a range of tangible pathways. • • • • building trust and engagement are critical because communities These can be summarised as a willingness to adopt coherent policy settings need to be engaged and ‘buy into’ a clear vision for their future; that would encourage and enable climate adaptive ‘best practice’ across strategic goals and planning frameworks need to be clearly industry and civic institutions. These would manifest in the changes in both articulated and supported by coherent policy and regulatory the practices and infrastructure of urban and rural land use. Demonstrating frameworks; the integration of best practice models and sponsoring innovation across the maintenance and renewal of physical infrastructure needs a range of policy domains were deemed essential to building capacity for adequate investment in recognition of its central roles in achieving transformational change, including through for example housing, water, preferred futures; and waste, infrastructure and innovation policies. policy that sponsors innovation, like forming innovation hubs and INCREMENTAL CHANGE—DAY 2 research-policy partnerships, should focus on identified areas of need. The final scenario required participants to consider what a climate Participants were enthused about the prospects for working towards adapted future in the ACR would look like under an incremental or a preferred future, discussing options for how economic and strategic ‘business as usual’ approach. planning, physical infrastructure and innovation policies could be integrated for maximum advantage for the ACR. Participants felt that change under this scenario would be centred on gradual adjustment and the promotion of small-scale success stories. TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE By definition ‘business-as-usual’ would not focus on driving major On the second day of the workshop, participants focused on how transformational change in any sector. Participants expressed a clear different pathways of change could support transitions towards preferred sentiment that incremental change was unlikely to be sufficient. However, VI Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project a small number of participants felt that this is what is most likely to occur 4. The project identified an appetite amongst senior decision-makers in the absence of strong policy leadership, especially in areas such as land for consistent regulatory compliance mechanisms that enable and use planning, urban development and standards for settlements and facilitate cross-border monitoring and evaluation of adaptation infrastructure. The need for consistent compliance on land use planning policy. Enhanced cooperative frameworks for monitoring, review and building standards, including monitoring and evaluation frameworks, and compliance may stimulate shared learnings, support innovation was recognised as a significant theme for climate adaptation policy. and create efficiencies, as well as increasing the ability to ensure consistent development, planning and implementation of successful PROJECT FINDINGS climate adaptation strategies. The project demonstrates a strong willingness amongst agencies, policy 5. The establishment, formalisation or expansion of strategic research- professionals and experts to engage in thinking about a climate adapted policy partnerships provides a useful avenue for synthesising and future, and to continue regional collaborations on climate adaptation. innovating around the major regional policy and planning themes. Strong connections were made between workshop participants, with These processes strengthen policy development and achieve many expressing that they had developed networks that would assist synergies by involving multiple agencies, combining institutional them to continue collaboration on climate adaptation. This leads to our capabilities and bringing together diverse perspectives. first finding: 1. There is a need to give attention to scoping and implementing competent strategic planning, based on broad partnerships that build capabilities for the ACR to anticipate and respond appropriately to the risks and hazards of a changing climate. Supporting this first finding, the following findings are emphasised as the basis for further investigations: 2. Regional adaptation planning requires a robust evidence base to inform successful policy development. Incorporating climate adaptation requires sustained processes for in-depth engagement of policy, research and technical personnel. Platforms, like this project, that sponsor collaborations, enable shared understanding and increase confidence in an evidence base for developing, implementing and evaluating policies related to complex change processes including climate adaptation. 3. Through the exploring and responding to the four scenarios participants identified specific policy themes that could benefit from regional and cross boundary collaboration including: • public transport; • building standards; • renewable energy; • a continued leadership role for emergency services, disaster prevention and post-catastrophic recovery; • regulatory cooperation and an alignment to planning, especially for land and housing policy, and compliance mechanisms; and • water supply and waste water. The bush capital – Civic through the trees. Source: Tayanah O’Donnell VII Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project that arise from extreme weather events. Responses to the Canberra 2003 1 INTRODUCTION – INNOVATION, fires offers a pertinent example with changes to emergency management COLLABORATION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION and cross-border collaboration that resulted from an event that started ‘over the ACT border’. These changes demonstrate the importance of institutionalising ways of effectively working together, irrespective of 1.1 THE PROJECT jurisdictional responsibilities or agency responsibilities, as defined by Climate adaptation requires innovation, including legal and policy governmental portfolios or lines on maps effected under legislation. innovation. Several existing mechanisms that have a mandate to enhance regional cooperation include: In an Australian context, the role of law in driving climate mitigation • and adaptation responses is becoming more pronounced, yet there is the ACT—NSW Memorandum of Understanding on Regional Collaboration; limited research into the ways in which legal and policy innovation can be enhanced. This report documents an innovative project that combines legal review and • the establishment of the NSW Cross Border Commissioner; and • the Canberra Region Joint Organisation. These provide a foundation for governments to share information, scenario planning to explore the capacity for climate adaptive futures in the coordinate responses and enable solutions for more effective service Australian Capital Region (ACR). The project used scenario planning to delivery on regional issues. These mechanisms are accompanied explore what, if any, role legal and regulatory frameworks have in creating by a number of sectorial strategies such as water and catchment drivers to, or barriers for climate-adapted futures in the ACR - the region management, natural resource management (NRM), renewable energy including and surrounding the Australian Capital Territory. The project investment, and, increasingly, road and transport planning. accepts the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change definition of adaptation: ‘an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual The Australian Capital Region (ACR) is defined in this paper as the or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits Australian Capital Territory (ACT) jurisdiction, the immediately surrounding beneficial opportunities’ (2007). local councils, and the south-east tablelands region of New South Wales (NSW). Following amalgamations of local governments by the NSW The project is based on the recognition that serious consideration needs Government in 2016/2017 the surrounding local councils of the ACT are: to be given to scoping and implementing processes that will enhance regional capacity to anticipate and respond appropriately to the risks and hazards of a changing climate. Regional collaboration and policy innovation are priorities for ensuring this capacity. 1.2 THE REGION • Goulburn/Mulwaree Council; • Yass Valley Council; • Queanbeyan—Palerang Regional Council; and • Snowy Monaro Regional Council. 1.3 BACKGROUND TO THE PROJECT After Federation, Canberra was selected as the site for the national This project was developed jointly by Canberra Urban and Regional capital. Growing gradually within a largely agricultural region, Canberra Futures (CURF) researchers and the ACT Government in order to has become not only the national capital but also the cultural and provide an evidence base for ministerial reporting requirements on economic ‘capital’ of the greater capital region known as the Australian Action Item 9 in the ACT Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. This Capital Region (ACR). The ACR has a unique jurisdictional spatial and item specifies: institutional pattern with a national and regional capital surrounded by another jurisdiction (NSW). Effective planning and climate adaptation Actions by 2020: requires cooperation across these spatial and institutional boundaries. Regional collaboration Work with the region to improve awareness of climate Evidence shows that integrating climate change adaptation into regional change impacts to build resilience and adaptive capacity. planning offers an opportunity to foreshadow the challenges and impacts 1 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project CURF facilitated the project design. The research team met and discussed biogeographic contexts (Dore et al 2012; Dittmer 2014; Appaduri 2013). this with key decision-makers in the Office of Environment and Heritage These complex relationships between the actual and the potential can (NSW Government) and the ACT Government in order to co-develop a be revealed through engaging people in stories about the future or collaborative and policy relevant research project for the entire ACR. scenarios (Vervoort et al 2015), including people involved in shaping and implementing policies. Some scenario planning methods are described as It was deemed useful to explore regulatory and policy settings for climate ‘living scenarios’ in which iterations of scenarios evolve through dynamic change adaptation, as well as facilitate regional collaboration between exchanges of participants in forming and reshaping multiple scenarios participants to assist in enabling them to ‘build resilience and adaptive (AAS 2012; Wright et al 2008; Vervoort et al 2015). capacity’ as per Action Item 9. As a method of investigation, scenarios are capable of dealing with the In order to investigate the legal aspects of governance of regional futures, non-linearity of complex, coupled social and ecological systems and can the project focused on the intersection of climate adaptation, policy and be used to emphasise human agency in shaping the future (Walker et al legislation. To explore how senior decision-makers, NGOs, and experts 2002; Rickards et al 2014). Scenarios planning methods are useful given could engage with these issues we developed four future scenarios that the limitations of the prediction and plan paradigms that are challenged illustrate contrasting futures shaped by different policy and governance by non-linearity of change including changing climates. Rather than extrapolating trends or deterministically reducing the future to climate choices (see section 3 and appendix 3). Participants received a project forecasts (Hulme 2011), scenario-planning techniques enable alternative overview (Appendix 1), a legal issues background paper (Appendix 2) futures to be explored (Slaughter 2002) and by doing offer the prospect and the scenarios prior to attending the workshop (Appendix 3). The full of altering both beliefs and practices (Rickards et al 2014; Ison et al 2014). scenarios are also summarised in section 3 of this report. Awareness of assumptions that underpin and frame choices used in The workshop discussions were guided by a set of focal questions that constructing scenarios is important (Rickards et al 2014). The methods elicited responses to each of the scenarios. These questions and the used for stakeholder engagement are critical because these determine participants’ responses are documented in section 4 of this report. the success of participatory strategies (Soste et al 2014). Effective scenarios combine analysis, imagination and engagement, working as The scenarios usefully focused discussions about pathways to preferred devices that articulate options, and empower thinking, planning and futures, with a particular emphasis on how the law, including the policy acting (Rickards et al 2014). This reinforces the notion that preferable and regulatory settings, can contribute to achieving these. Each of the futures are embedded cultural ‘facts’ which people are adept at scenarios incorporates mega trends that are plausible drivers of the articulating when given suitable opportunities (Appaduri 2013). future, including the climate projections for the ACR which consistently point to higher temperatures, reduced cool season rain, increased Scenarios can assist in thinking about the future by helping to identify drought, more extreme fire weather and more intense storms. priorities and drivers that can be linked in ‘future stories’. Such stories and the strategies they engender are a form of enactment, a possible 1.4 AN INTRODUCTION TO USING SCENARIOS FOR foundation for transformative change, by unbridling ideas about better ADAPTION PLANNING futures and pathways for achieving them. Unleashing a playful creativity is The project used scenarios to explore regional adaptation planning. critical to envisaging preferred futures as is empowering actors to engage It takes as its starting point that the social, economic and ecological in shaping institutional negotiations (Appaduri 2013). systems (socio-ecological systems) defined as regions (regional communities or regional economies) are complex and dynamic The structure of the remainder of this report is as follows. Section 2 (Folke et al 2002; Allen 2011). Their trajectories are influenced by provides the background information to the project. Section 3 details governance institutions (Ostrom 1990), by the dominant framings the research methods and includes the rationale for why we were using of discourses and environmental politics (Dryzek 2012) and by the scenarios. Section 4 provides a detailed discussion of key themes and complex interrelationships between beliefs, values, histories, cultural findings arising from the workshop, and section 5 provides conclusions. and policy settings–laws, rules, and social norms within their historic and 2 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Molonglo Valley, ACT. 2014. Source: David Flannery To explore these four factors, we undertook a legal review and developed 2 BACKGROUND TO PROJECT a scenario planning exercise to enable the exploration of the legal and regulatory frameworks and processes for climate change adaptation 2.1 PROJECT AIMS, SCOPE AND APPROACH outcomes (‘climate adapted futures’) across the ACR. What legal, policy and regulatory settings will enable collaborative approaches to climate adaptation in the ACR? This research project The project defined law to mean legal rules, institutions, cases, and sought to examine the key dimensions of this question by: • interpretations of statute, case law, and enabling policies relevant to identifying opportunities and barriers to regional collaboration perceptions of law and of law’s relationship to climate change adaptation, towards climate adapted futures; • as it pertains to cross-jurisdictional boundaries. understanding how the law is understood, interpreted and relied on by key decision-makers, in and for climate change adaptation; • The main variables in driving the four the scenarios were governance exploring ways to catalyse innovative ideas on regulatory and choices, and policy frameworks (and their feedbacks) applied over time, legal options for adaptation and identify options for innovation in within the context of a changing climate. These took as their starting formulating adaptive planning, policy and regulatory settings; and • point the current situation within the ACR and the need for policies and developing and testing methods for exploring the challenges and governance settings that consider, anticipate and/or respond to hotter, opportunities for regional collaboration on climate adaptation. dryer, and more flood prone conditions in the ACR in the decades out to year 2100. The scenarios explored were: With these aims in mind it became clear that the project focuses on the intersection of four factors: (i) increasing climate risk, (ii) existing regulation and policy settings, • dystopia (maladaptation); • utopia (ideal outcome); • transformational change (radical shift in perceptions about desirable rates of change); and (iii) regional collaboration, and • (iv) innovation. 3 incremental change (business as usual). Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project The scenarios were detailed enough to enable consideration of specific ‘Implementation Status Report on ACT Government’s Climate Change thematic issues that are likely to feature significantly in climate change Policy’ (Status Report 2, September 2017). This comprehensive review, futures (with and without effective adaptation)—such as disaster released one month prior to our workshop, provides a framework to enable preparedness and responsiveness, land use planning and sustaining the ACT Government to implement a climate change strategy to year regionally based economic activities. Each scenario adopted a multi- 2050. The Status Report 2 follows from a 2014 Status Report (#1). It looks to scalar approach, spanning specific local details through to broad national incorporate both mitigation and adaptation actions into the 2050 strategy. policies to draw attention to issues related to: Framed by a series of case studies grouped by theme, the report finds that: • building and engineering codes and standards; • land use and strategic planning systems; Urgent, purposeful, and targeted climate change action is both a • disaster relief policies and frameworks; and critical function and core business of sub-national governments. • infrastructure (including transport, water, land use planning). The ACT Government has been a leader and driver of climate The project built on a history of regional collaboration (Mummery et change policy and action in the Australian context. There are al 2017). Key cross boundary and regulatory documents pertaining to further opportunities to leverage this position as a small and agile climate adaptation in the ACR at the time of this workshop included the territory, particularly in the absence of national action (p43). ACT Climate Change Strategy, the Implementation Status Report of the ACT Government’s Climate Change Policy (September 2017), and the Among the key findings of the report is a focus on reducing emissions NSW South East Tablelands Regional Plan. These key documents that resulting from traditional modes of transport (car dependency), a framed the then current policy settings are described briefly below. commitment to social equity, and appropriately funded and well-timed policy is evident. 2.2 ACT CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY The ACT Climate Change Strategy was released in 2016. It emphasises 2.4 NEW SOUTH WALES SOUTH EAST TABLELANDS the importance of a regional approach to adaptation for the Australian REGIONAL PLAN Capital Region. It details key triggers for adaptation, including: a The release of the South East and Tablelands Regional Plan 2036 in July growing and ageing population; regional climatic variability, its effects 2017 forged new pathways on cross-jurisdictional collaboration. It sets the and impacts; and the ACT Government’s approach to adaptation as urban and regional land use and planning agenda for the ACR, centred being an incremental approach, “achieved through an understanding of on the importance of integrated planning. The NSW Government’s community behaviour and careful long term planning by government vision for the South East and Tablelands Region is “a borderless region in consultation with the community” as this “carries reduced risk of in Australia’s most geographically diverse natural environment with the disruption to society from abrupt transformation” (p31). nation’s capital at its heart”. The Strategy is framed by five key sectors: disaster and emergency Importantly, the Plan recognises the artificial jurisdictional boundaries management; community health and wellbeing; settlements and between states and territories are meaningless to climate change infrastructure; water; and natural resources and ecosystems. How key adaptation and natural disasters. It recognises overt linkages between actors across the region were engaging with these sectors in the context the ACT and NSW jurisdictions together with a number of local of adaptation and regional planning was explored in a 2017 CURF councils within the South East and Tablelands area. The plan refers to the research project (Mummery et al 2017). A principal finding of that project economic and social importance of tourism across the region, the region’s was that regional relationships by key decision-makers are critical to leadership in renewable energy initiatives and investment, the centrality ensure the success of climate adaptation across the ACR. of the ACT in providing hospital and employment services across the 2.3 IMPLEMENTATION STATUS REPORT OF THE ACT South East and Tablelands region, and the growing economic activity GOVERNMENT’S CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY spanning the boundaries. Following the launch of the Climate Change Strategy in 2016, the ACT Commissioner for Sustainability and the Environment released its 4 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project used to explore alternative futures (Slaughter 2002; Wright et al 2008; 3 METHODS AND APPROACH Vervoort et al 2015). It is a recognised method of investigation, capable of dealing with the non-linearity of complex systems because it does not 3.1 OVERVIEW rely on extrapolating existing trends (Rickards et al 2014; Ison et al 2014). The two-day interactive workshop was a central event in the project It has been used extensively for corporate strategies (Slaughter 2002), for on which the methods hinged. It was planned as both an opportunity national science planning (ASS 2012), for climate adaptation (Alexandra to catalyse interactive dialogue between jurisdictional, agency and 2012; Rickards et al 2014) and water and natural resource management other attendees, and as a way of generating and testing ideas about (Soste et al 2014; Alexandra, Rae and Nelson 2014). Participatory climate adaptation. Senior decision-makers within the ACT and NSW scenarios or foresighting methods can catalyse constructive dialogues on Governments and the immediately surrounding local councils to the preferred futures (Alexandra, Rae and Nelson 2014). Defined as creative ACT border were invited to participate, along with several researchers ‘world making’ they can work to make assumptions explicit, focusing and NGO representatives. The diverse expertise and jurisdictional attention on the pathways and practices needed to realise preferable representation ensured a broad range of perspectives. futures (Vervoort et al 2015). The use of scenarios helps to make explicit the mental models that shape our conceptualisation of what is likely, Both the scenarios and the legal issues paper were provided as separate desirable or possible, noting that these beliefs are typically constrained by documents prior to the workshop (Appendix 2 and 3). At the workshop, preconceived ways of thinking (Rickards et al 2014). participants were invited to comment, respond to and consider the probabilities and implications of each scenario. In particular, they were Successful social innovations are usually co-produced by broad asked to think about the role of policy and regulation and that of regional partnerships that build constituencies for policy directions. Deliberative collaboration in preparing for and responding to increasing risks driven by and participatory processes combined with heuristic tools like scenario a changing climate. planning can empower people to prepare for the futures (Pahl-Wostl 2002; Walker et al 2002; AAS 2012; Rickards et al 2014). Transformative After some introductions and scene settings the four workshop sessions approaches are often based on rethinking and reordering of fundamental were structured to investigate the following key questions: 1. relationships and imaginatively mapping possibilities (Alexandra and What legal and governance choices could enable the region to Riddington 2006; Vervoort et al 2015). Therefore, an explicit challenge avoid moving towards the dystopian future? 2. for regional planning is engaging people in processes that disrupt and What legal and governance choices could enable the region to challenge notions of possible futures (Vervoort et al 2015). Emphasising move towards the utopian future? 3. the use of participatory scenarios for empowerment is consistent with What are the major policy/adaptation themes emerging from Vervoort et al’s (2015) assertions that we are all world makers, with the consideration of the above scenarios? 4. explicit challenge being to harness creative powers through engaging Working within the policy and institutional constraints of an people in scenarios that help reorder, recombine, contrast, and challenge incremental future (only gradual reforms embraced) how would our notions of present and future worlds. specific adaptation reforms be advanced? 5. Working within the policy and institutional settings of a Our process aimed to focus workshop participants to think and ‘work transformative future (progressive reforms embraced) how would through’ discussions on the nature of these imagined futures. A specific specific adaptation reforms be advanced? objective of this foresighting process was to bring out ideas on the roles of innovation and collaboration in formulating and applying policy 3.2 THE SCENARIOS USED TO GENERATE DIALOGUE and regulatory settings. We were also interested to test thinking about The scenarios were designed as stories about the ‘nature of the future’, legal and governance systems—how policy and regulatory settings used to focus discussion about pathways to preferred futures, with a enable or constrain effective adaptation by steering choices in particular particular emphasis on how the law, policy and regulatory settings, can directions (or not), and to address specific risks and/or enable specific contribute to achieving these. opportunities. These scenarios are stories, but they are not science fiction or fantasies about the future. They are bound by factors like climate The project used a modified version of a method known as foresighting, change forecasts, population projections, and the global supply and which is an established technique within the discipline of future studies 5 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project demand of commodities. Indeed, some feedback received was that some The scenarios were by necessity focused through a lens of what is of our scenarios didn’t push hard enough! known about the region and the way it has been changing. We took into account broader socio-political, economic and environmental drivers, Ultimately, the scenarios served their intended purpose: to start such as Australia’s demographic trends, trade (global materials, energy, discussions at the workshop by inviting the participants to use their food and fibre supply and demand) and climate change impacts, both experience and imaginations as the basis to engage in debates about direct and indirect. Each scenario was developed using a combination of ways to actively use law and policy to shape preferred regional futures drivers or driver types. These included, for example, external drivers such and to gather broad ranging ideas about future directions and priorities. as economic drivers of population change, changing global demands for goods and services and water resources policy and infrastructure. 3.3 THE RATIONALE AND APPROACH TO THE Other drivers included regional factors like infrastructure, natural SCENARIOS resources, markets and industry development policies that affect ACR The four scenarios used to frame the workshop were set in the Australian competiveness, economic productivity and comparative advantages, Capital Region in the year 2030, stretched to 2035–only 13 to 18 including regional reputation (and risks to it), branding and marketing. years from now. In our scenarios, by 2030 governments are seriously modelling and planning for climate change impacts to a series of stage The scenarios were intended to focus the participants’ thinking and points—2050, 2070 and 2100—particularly for long-term infrastructure discussion on the nature, roles and purpose of the planning and like water supply and energy systems. regulatory systems, and the way specific policy settings interact with issues, and address or amplify specific risks and opportunities. They were The scenarios were introduced as occurring in a social setting defined intended to be sufficiently provocative as to generate debate, and yet by widespread acceptance of climate change as an unavoidable reality. sufficiently grounded in plausible trajectories of change as to be credible. There were, however, very different views about what should be done Based on workshop participants’ engagement and feedback they in response, with policy choices, as always, determined by competing achieved this balance. discourse coalitions that attempt to steer debates and shape directions through processes that inevitably involve conflicting priorities, discursive 3.4 INTRODUCING AND USING THE SCENARIOS AT and deliberative processes of politics, and networks of power relations THE WORKSHOP (DeLanda 2006; Hajer 2005; Dryzek 2005). Following general introductions, there was a short presentation on the macro drivers—the big picture issues behind the scenarios. These drivers In each of the scenarios we relied on the same assumed set of climatic included global population growth to 8–9 billion by 2030. To keep conditions and climate risk factors predicted for the ACR (Norman et al within planetary boundaries (Norman 2018) there would be necessary 2014). This was a deliberate decision as we wanted to explore alternative constraints for the ACR. We framed these to include the need to reduce socio-political and institutional scenarios emerging against a background carbon emission, changing climatic conditions, increased competition for of climate change and the changing risks and hazards it induces, water, the end of abundantly available high-grade fossil fuels for energy rather than engage in the details of climate science itself. The climatic needs, increasing demands for agricultural commodities including red conditions in the scenarios included: meat, rising affluence across the globe, increased migration across the globe due to environmental change, a changing legal landscape including • records for heatwaves consistently broken as summer temperatures climb increasing risks of non-compliance and legal liability, and the impacts • more frequent and intense droughts; (could be positive, neutral or negative) of technological advances. • severe water restrictions limiting urban use and agricultural • production; Following this introduction, each of the scenarios was introduced with most decades experiencing a ‘1:100 year’ bushfire that changes a summary of the material distributed prior to the workshop. Table 1 forested catchments with ash and sediment disrupting water quality provides a snapshot of each of the scenarios (the full scenarios are and supply; reproduced in Appendix 3). • more intense rainfall and wind events; and • significant and frequent flash flooding. 6 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Table 1: Policy and regulatory settings in each of the scenarios Dystopian settings Utopia settings In the dystopian scenario policy and regulatory settings are focused on: In the utopian scenario policy and regulatory settings contribute to a • Reducing the cost of doing business region’s social and economic advantage through: • Cutting government programs, abdicating responsibilities and • retrofitting and new building designs effective in lowing energy costs legislating to ensure governments can’t be sued for policy failures • • • Ringing dividends out of ageing infrastructure High quality and energy efficient building and housing stock, including • High levels of urban amenity—urban forestry and wetlands generate cooling and ambiance Local government and state agency consolidation (reorganising as an excuse for not doing anything) • Urban transport efficiency—emphasis on walking, light rail and cycling Abolition of any kind of standard or planning scheme that could • Standards and incentive programs deliver productivity and efficiency—optimising energy, water, material and labour costs be used to hold government accountable for disasters or failure and establishing the buyer beware rules for everything, especially • Effective linkages between R&D and entrepreneurship housing, safety etc • Strategies for industry development and global competitive • Climate vulnerability assessment remains a growth industry advantage—innovation clusters combine R&D, management and • Social welfare funding remains a major economic driver in most towns marketing • Promoting community resilience—sometimes referred to as • actives ‘do it yourself liberalism because you can’t expect much from government’ • • • Lobbying, bribery and corruption to snare an Government facilities or events Education and training deliver a highly skilled work force and build professional capacity Placing huge emphasis on winning bids for investment in hard adaptation infrastructure spends—like sea walls and concrete drains New high-tech industries including in pharmaceuticals and new bio- • Science, design and technology innovations • Climate forecasting for disaster prevention • Carbon sequestration policies • Large scale environmental monitoring and modelling and advanced spatial modelling Transformation scenario Incrementalism scenario In a transformation scenarios active policy and regulatory settings drive In an incrementalism scenario, the ACR policy and regulatory settings activities, being focused on: would be focused on: • Enabling transformative technologies and practices • • Targeting policy innovations focused on key elements of the Responding to problems, including increasingly frequent natural disasters transformation plan • Social welfare and local economic stimulus, to attract industry • Sponsoring innovative business and R&D • Reducing costs of regulations and administrative over heads • Sharing regional responsibility via a regional plan • Patching up ageing infrastructure, including roads that have long been • Mobilising communities and business towards agreed policy goals • Replacing ageing built infrastructure with new systems • complemented by living infrastructure, eg. light rail and • underfunded • Formal mechanism for responsibility sharing between local and • Arguing unsuccessfully with the NSW and Commonwealth state government governments as to the needs of the region for more disaster relief Tighter standards and planning scheme used to hold government funds accountable for effecting change • Anticipatory policy settings • Active climate vulnerability assessment • High transaction cost planning disputes about almost every decision whether big or small geothermal heating and cooling • Defending governments against litigation Preparedness to re-conceive how to manage the regional landscape to reduce risks • Promoting 21st century industry clusters • Monitoring policy impacts and measuring successes 7 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project After a short recap on each scenario, small group discussions followed, focused on one or more critical questions. These questions guided participants to focus on the project objectives of identifying enabling policy settings and to ascertain their views about priorities for testing or achieving these. Each scenario, the catalytic questions and the workshop responses are reported in the next section. Morning Aerial view of Canberra, ACT, source: Stock image 8 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project 4 CLIMATE ADAPTED FUTURES: SCENARIO RESPONSES AND FINDINGS 4.1 INTRODUCTION This section reports on the workshop findings. For each scenario a short summary is provided in the box text with the full scenarios in Appendix 3. This is followed by the focal questions and a summary of the workshop responses distilled into a series of themes. 4.2 DYSTOPIAN SCENARIO Box 1 Summary of the dystopian scenario After approximately 50 years of relatively steady expansion of its low rise, car based suburbs the Canberra region is in decline. Commonwealth decentralisation policies and regional relocation of agencies have reduced jobs. Declining employment resulted in declining house prices. A lack of regional industry has makes the region vulnerable to reducing government employment. The only increase in employment has been with the military, which is increasingly called on to respond to natural disasters, floods, fires, cyclones, sea level rise and other climatic security emergencies. Channelisation of Ginninderra Creek was undertaken after urban wetlands and riparian revegetation were blamed for flooding of suburbs after intense storms dumped cyclonic rains on the region. Canberra’s outer suburbs and surrounding towns have started to ghettoise, with some areas recognised as welfare slums. Police and other emergency services are reluctant to enter these areas. Flooding is common because drains are often blocked with debris and refuse. Bush fires are common and many smaller villages and towns have been abandoned. Much public infrastructure has been built to poor standards due to poor contract management and supervision. Private sector building standards are even worse with many substandard buildings struggling to survive the high intensity storms that ravage the region. Heat stress is the highest cause of death each summer when the desert winds drive in from the inland. These winds bring clouds of red dust that cover everything including the linings of peoples’ lungs. Serious respiratory infections are common. Community opposition to government planning hardens partly due to costly failures of previous plans and the cost of getting permits through a chaotic system. The repeated failure of water and wastewater treatment facilities contributes to the poor reputation for environmental standards. A pro-fossil fuel party scrapped solar energy and light rail initiatives. Housing built on low-lying areas that became prone to flooding and those adjoining forests became prone to regular bushfires. The dominant political philosophy has focused on downsizing and reducing the regulatory burden so that business can grow the economy. Neo-liberalism is promoted, branded as resilience. There is willingness to abolish most government interventions leaving most decision to the private sector. There is almost no confidence in government’s ability to get things done. 9 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Dystopian scenario - focal questions How can governance steer away from a worse case future? What is the role of legislation, regulation and policy in steering away from a dystopian future? Please provide specific examples of possible policy or legislative briefs giving emphasis to institutions, governance practices, the role of legislation, regulation and policy. The community and government relationship—emerging theme 1 A theme emerging strongly in response to the dystopian scenario was that of the potential fragility of community—government relationships. Groups concluded that to arrive at this bleak future there must have been a decline in public trust and sentiment. With this breakdown comes a lack Pialligo Estate Smokehouse, Pialligo, Canberra. Source: Tayanah O’Donnell of trust in public institutions, along with a steady shift in public sentiment The workshop identified some options for enhancing cross-border that contributed to the progressive decline over decades. collaborations to ensure regional governance helps prevent a dystopian future, including, for example, adopting a set of common standards Participants expressed that this breakdown would only be caused by a for settlements and infrastructure. In addition, participants stated that lack of responsiveness and capacity to steer away from this trajectory, institutional structures and processes ought to enhance inter-agency to such an extent that it would result in a negative downward spiral. This cooperation, noting that the recent amalgamation of local governments community/government dynamic would be characterised by little or no should see these being better resourced. Participants were also positive faith in governments and a resistance to any visionary change, leading to about opportunities to share investigations and compliance processes resistance to forward thinking policy. across jurisdictions. Infrastructure—emerging theme 2 Emergency management and disaster preparedness—emerging Participants identified the need to look seriously at new engineering and theme 4 design standards for the built environment under climate change. Some There was a view that the ACR needs relevant policy that defines risk participants thought that there would be calls for investment in durable mitigation along the lines of ‘strategic prevention’ because resilience and sustainable infrastructure, but that limited funds from State and terminology has become a less useful catchall. Emergency management Commonwealth Governments would be absorbed in disaster relief funding. and disaster preparation can be taken to mean being more prepared for responding to events, and less focused on prevention via long term The insurance industry policies may have contributed to problems by approaches like land use planning, and fire and water management across ‘like for like’ replacement policies for buildings, roads and bridges. This borders. It was suggested that one way to bridge this gap could be with would be especially the case where long life asset or infrastructure items a case study on heat stress management, which would also serve to were not upgraded to new standards to meet new conditions, or built build community awareness and create community networks. This could to new engineering designs. By way of contrast, participants mentioned investigate specific questions like: what happens when the electricity goes the relatively successful example of the Queensland Reconstruction out in heat waves, and whether passive solar architecture can provide Authority’s interventions in post flood rebuilding to new standards. viable alternatives? Regional governance—emerging theme 3 Dysfunctional/functional communities—emerging theme 5 Participants recognised that there are established patterns of Participants recognised the prospect for urban areas to turn into ‘slums’ relationships between governments in the ACR. For example, NSW is under a dystopian scenario, creating greater social inequity. Discussion on bigger than the ACT but distributes its attention and resources across this aspect included questions such as: Are slum suburbs where the social the entire state, while the ACT has additional urban population and and physical services break down? Or where dysfunctional communities demographic challenges providing hospitals, employment and transport emerge? (ie. are they created top down or bottom up?) services for the entire region. 10 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project There was recognition of the high cost associated with turning around social dysfunction in current/future slums. Participants explored the serious prospect of rural villages and small towns becoming ‘welfare slums’. Some local government officials gave examples of these emerging within their localities, especially in those locales more than 100 kilometres from welfare office (this distance means no mandatory office attendance requirements for social welfare recipients). Summary There was strong emphasis on community—government relations as the central dynamic that would allow the dystopian future to emerge. This scenario engendered a prevailing sense of pessimism that it would be hard to steer away or come back from the dystopian future described, indicated by statements like: ‘Once we are here, very very hard to go back’ and ‘we need governments with guts. With bravery!’ And ‘very hard to bring things back perhaps we’d need benign dictator/ military style government to get things done’. Tidbinbilla Space Station, ACT. Source: Tayanah O’Donnell Table 2: Dystopian emerging themes aligned to guiding questions Q2: What is the role of legislation, regulation and policy in Q2: What is the role of legislation, regulation and policy in steering away from dystopian future? steering away from dystopian future? • Ensuring compliance and enforcement—eg building Dealing with legacy of development in vulnerable locations and regulation compliance • role of insurance, are they honest in measuring and Strategic planning needs to be implemented not just written ACT/NSW Governments being strategic and pricing risk? The sector is critical for the dystopian into policy anticipatory scenario • land tenure is a central issue for some local council In dystopia, the government role in regulation • interaction between planning, negligence, insurance, Q1. How can governance steer away from a worse case future? Need to steer away from dystopian future with: • Strong regional collaborations of NSW/ACT in alignment of legislation (harmonise legislations) • Effective regional economic planning—an economic plan for • • the region is critical, one that takes account of the role of the federal government • together is critical. • Community cohesion mechanisms—including small returns—maybe even socialism! and mapping—is 1/100 AHD enough? Retrospective Need to reform political and civil rights discourse— data is not useful to manage these risks perhaps declare a state of emergency? How to bring the community along? Bringing the community • Need cohesive and strategic planning. • Essential services will be strained, significant cultural change scale initiatives 11 Yass settlement plan is a good example of strategic planning • Community involvement in planning is critical • Understanding locational dynamics re cost of living Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project 4.3 UTOPIA The utopian scenario was introduced outlining the ideas summarised in box 2 below. Box 2 Scenario 2: Utopian growth and prosperity The Commonwealth continues to invest in Canberra and private sector employment also thrives. The ACR attracts capital and talent. The region offers an enviable lifestyle away from Australia’s crowded capital cities, with suburbs clogged with traffic. Canberra’s reputation as a liveable city grows renowned as an exemplar of effective regional planning. The quality of housing improves through high grade building standards suited to the climatic conditions. Property developers compete for market share with climate friendly, eco-friendly housing developments. All work exceeds minimum standards. Independent assessors use objective performance measures for buildings so buyers can determine performance. Regional planning agreements are endorsed with serious commitment to robust institutional arrangements, environmental protection and risk assessment. High quality social and physical infrastructure has resulted in improvements in transport, housing, education and healthcare. Transport planning is integrated around the light rail network. The regional land use and economic planning is neither too restrictive nor too laissez faire. Government interventions reduce risks posed by wild fire. Regional landscape management focuses on both conservation and risk mitigation. Flood minimisation plans have been revised to accommodate higher intensity storms supported by advanced climatic and hydrological modelling. Creeks and rivers are managed to maximise water and biodiversity conservation. Urban wetlands feature prominently in most suburbs that use living infrastructure - urban forests, street trees, urban wetlands and other bio cooling systems. Due to orderly land use planning, housing estates are not located in areas predicted to flood under climate change scenarios. The Canberra region is recognised as one of the leading biophilic cities, winning awards for its integration of biodiversity within and around the urban areas. The region’s 2019 economic diversification strategy supports the emergence of industry clusters that drive demand for professional employment. With many well-paid professionals, the ACR becomes renowned for its lifestyles. The ACR has many internationally recognised teaching and Research and Development (R&D) programs spanning many disciplines and contributing to regional economic development. These support collaboration across faculties and disciplines including engineering and design, geography and environment, business and economics and the natural sciences. The ACR’s primary industries including forestry and agriculture continue to grow in significance, including through a specialty food and fibre industry. The region’s coolish climate becomes an advantage as lower altitude and inland regions swelter under higher summer temperatures. Water supplies are secure and water politics are cool in the region despite some tough droughts. The historic regional Water Accord limits further public outrage and disruptive protests at the damming and modifications of rivers. The strong commitment to environmental flows and riverine ecosystem protection ensures that the Water Accord lasts. The region’s governments are champions of riverine restoration and are leaders in implementing the landcare and catchment protection. Repeated science based assessment of climate risk are undertaken. Innovative programs assess physical risk and social vulnerability and are used as the basis for proactive measures. Damages have been substantially reduced due to anticipatory policy settings. 12 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Focal questions to guide discussion on the utopian scenario it includes options for recycling technology development, including The utopia scenario was guided by the following key questions: energy, is based on best practice design specifications, including increase • How can governance steer towards a best-case future? capacity for growing population, and will be future proofed against • What would be the role of legislation, regulation and policy in floods. The STP also raised issues about the symbolic dimensions of steering towards a utopian future? physical infrastructure, which represent investment in quality of the environment and urban lifestyles. Strategic goals supported by policy instruments—emerging theme 1 Innovation hubs—emerging theme 3 Participants considered that there needed to be a strong strategic Participants were excited in the discussion around ways to sponsor vision for the ACR with community buy-in, appropriate policy support innovation, including the strong potential for establishing innovation and implementation commitments that create positive feedbacks. For hubs. These would use existing research and development infrastructure, example, in the ACT the Government owns land and has an established engaging universities such as UC, ANU and UNSW. Hubs can be tradition of interventions in land use planning. How can this be used as a both a space and an approach to redrawing and rebranding the ACR viable basis for achieving long-term goals? as a climate adaptive region, for example, ‘ACR leading the Southern Hemisphere’. By adopting this approach the ACR would become a Regional collaborations could build on many positive cross-border regional innovation laboratory for adaptation. relationships evidenced by the NSW/ACT MOU, joint investment potential and more formalised rules of engagement between the ACT Policy innovation is needed to support cultural and technical innovations. and NSW, underpinned by the new South East Tablelands Regional Plan. Identified factors that can support innovation by participants included: bi-partisan commitment by governments, common infrastructure across Participants were optimistic and considered that many elements needed jurisdictions (including regulation and compliance measures associated to achieve progress towards a positive (utopian) future already existed with this infrastructure), and positive cultural and material incentives for across the ACR. They relied on relatively high standards of living, good individual/companies and communities to innovate. transport planning within the ACT (though opportunities remain for cross-border collaboration on public transport), best practice/evidence- Participants identified regional issues that need to be the focus of based policy and current land use planning practices that focus on nodal innovation. These focused on addressing practical issues such as waste development. and waste disposal, energy, water, housing and retrofitting buildings. Infrastructure and planning—emerging theme 2 There was strong recognition amongst participants that urban planning requires joint ACT/NSW adoption, as well as the harmonisation of urban regulations and compliance measures. Examples discussed including differing densification policies, , infrastructure standards and stormwater management (for example, the $100 million of Commonwealth money for stormwater improvement in Canberra). There is also recognition by all participants of the strong need for joint public transport—66 per cent of Queanbeyan people work in ACT and in the Yass Valley about 50 per cent. Another example of infrastructure that received quite detailed discussion was the new joint Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) that will service Queanbeyan and Canberra. While it is currently a concept plan Cotter River, ACT. Source: Tayanah O’Donnell 13 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Summary To give effect to strategic policy goals there was strong emphasis on the role of policy, regulation and compliance mechanisms. A range of specific examples of goals were provided with a focus on physical infrastructure (such as water and waste water treatment and planning and settlement patterns), followed by the idea of innovation hubs to support the development and implementation of best practice in evidence based policy. This leads to a final observation of a prevailing sense of optimism in achieving climate adapted futures for the ACR, with statements like: ‘There needs to be a COAG-like organisation that is focussed purely on adaptation monitoring, evaluation and compliance. Maybe that’s something for the cross-border commissioners, and every state then needs to have one [a cross-border commissioner]’ And ‘truth be told, we aren’t all that far away from a utopian scenario!’ Royalla Solar Panel Farm. Source: David Flannery 14 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Table 4: Utopian emerging themes aligned to guiding questions Q1: How can governance steer towards a best-case future? Q2: What will be the role of legislation, regulation and policy in steering towards a utopian future? • Recognise the strength in the diversity of the region—how to facilitate/enhance? • • We need to think regionally. Food, for example, will come from the region (NSW) • It’s a hub and spoke approach in the ACT, the ACT is landlocked so land requirements will demand a regional response so the ACT is a freight hub • Need a policy to keep key people in the region Transport across the region—different rules for buses for example (bikes allowed • Really need the proper design of building and infrastructure compliance codes, regulation on the front in ACT but not NSW). Needs consistent regulation and enforcement across the region—need similar rules and enforcement • Communications is important—change of work culture and breaking down silos • Uniformity on regulations re emergency services needed • Regulatory boundaries will be negligible • The community doesn’t see the border and wants a positive long term future • Build on regional change – eg Cooma is gentrifying—indicated by new coffee shops • Need ‘the nudge’—unpacking the behavioural psychology at play. Could be beneficial for • Support innovation and technological hubs? • Giving people a reason to be linked to Canberra as a hub, eg people having a long-term policy and for political will • We need a joint leaders’ policy to enable adaptation second home/holiday house in the region—not just at the coast—could help to build regional communities • Viability of rental properties will lead to greater demand • The SE plan and ACT plan aligned to each other, linked via economic zones and then adopt an economic plan for the region • Water remains a regional scale challenge • Solar and wind farms not really driven by local government, we need the states to drive it—but these farms can be divisive in communities 4.4 DISTILLING RESPONSES FROM THE DYSTOPIAN 6. incentives and regulations for climate adaptive regions and industries; AND UTOPIAN SCENARIOS 7. regional marketing and branding—remaking the future of the region; and Following the exploration of the dystopian and utopian scenarios, the 8. harmonising standards and investigations across boundaries. facilitators distilled the discussions to eight generic themes to be further development through exploring the transformative and incremental Through group discussion these themes were rationalised to four themes: scenarios. The purpose of doing this was to investigate the policy responses within the context provided by these alternate socio-political 1. contexts of transformative and incremental change. Regional strategic and economic planning: new interventions in the regional race, including hard (transport and ITC) and soft infrastructure and technology for a climate adaptive region; The eight themes that emerged from discussion on the dystopian and 2. utopian scenarios were: 1. 2. industry clusters; regional economic planning—new interventions in the regional race, 3. 4. 5. Legislation, regulation and compliance: evaluation, performance including hard (transport and ITC) and soft infrastructure; measures, policy learning including harmonising incentives, enabling innovation policy and policy innovations—innovation regulations and standards across boundaries; and platforms, innovation hubs and industry clusters; 3. Enabling innovation: innovation platforms, innovation hubs and 4. Equity issues and equitable futures: for example, health, ageing and evaluation, performance measures, policy learning including housing policies and ensuing public confidence in public policy developing best practice legislation, regulation and compliance; agencies. equity issues and equitable futures—health, ageing and housing policies; Three small groups investigated one of the themes 1-3, complemented Innovative system and new technology in sewerage treatment, with theme 4. In other words, each group investigated one of the first water quality and solid waste management; three themes in combination with consideration of equity issues. 15 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Lake Jindabyne and the New South Wales snowy mountains from the air, October 2017. Source: Tayanah O’Donnell 16 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project 4.5 TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE Under this scenario workshop informants considered how to advance policy initiatives under socio-political conditions conducive to high rates of fundamental change. A summary of this scenario is provided in Box 3. Box 3 Transformational change scenario - summary The ACR Strategic Planning Commission is accelerating economic transformation and climate adaptation. It is demonstrating ways to rapidly wean Australia’s regions off fossil fuel dependencies through proactive adaptation policies and practices. All policies and regulations have been revised to establish a regime of elegant and cost effective regulation and to mobilise transformative forces. A new regional plan gazetted by NSW and the ACT has overhauled land use planning. This integrates risk mitigation with economic development, transport and infrastructure development. A multi nodal model for Canberra and nearby towns is adopted. Each node is an employment hub based on specialised industry clusters. Goulbourn is a centre for railway construction and maintenance. Bungendore has a thriving craft and antiquarian book cluster. Solar energy systems’ are Queanbeyan’s speciality with leading R&D on artificial photosynthesis enabling glass and steel solar generators. Entire buildings are coated in solar generation technology built into the roofing, cladding and glazing. Flooding is no longer a problem due to strict land use planning and innovative ‘room for the creeks’ programs. The region is comprehensively modelled for risks including flooding and fire under various climate scenarios. All councils end ‘cookie cutter’ rural subdivisions but population growth is accommodated via cluster settlements around existing farm infrastructure. Each cluster complies with robust standards for landscape health and fire protection. Careful design and construction reduces fire risks along with grazing, clustering of houses near water, use of low flammability vegetation and separation of housing from bushland. Medium scale bioenergy plants have created a market for biomass materials and systematic harvesting is used for fuel reduction. Willows and poplars grown on wastewater irrigation are harvested in short rotation for biomass. All pine plantations are replaced with oak woodlands for biomass, fire reduction, timber and truffles, and pork and cork production. The multicultural landscape is promoted ending the nativists’ ideology being imposed on the region. Intensification of Canberra’s suburbs continues with many medium density developments linked by light rail and cycling tracks. A worldclass program of living infrastructure ensures attractiveness and liveability complementing excellent transport and physical infrastructure. Housing standards are high yet design guidelines are flexible. Solar architecture and construction innovations are actively promoted. Low interest loans are available for energy transformation of old building stock. Design and technology are used to make housing suitable for the climate with earth cooling and heating systems widely adopted. Climate change impacts have been as anticipated and most disasters have been averted through detailed planning and regional mobilisation. Successive revisions of building standards have been required due to the intensity of storms. Heat stress remains a matter of concern, but urban cooling using wetlands and urban forests and misting systems for large scale evaporative cooling have minimised feared health impacts. Wetlands and urban forestry gives tangible expression to the ‘cooler cities initiative,’ reducing extremes and dissipating urban heat islands. Many objective performance measurements for energy, water and materials are used to evaluate the region’s initiatives. The ACR regional plan is based on community mobilisation and engagement. All schools and many local groups are involved in delivering elements of the initiative. The region’s universities are also actively involved in the transformations, and the renewed local focus is seen to have global relevance. UC and ANU receive international recognition for their work on new urbanism, urban system dynamics, urban futures and social engagement in urbanity. 17 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Focal questions – transformative scenario evidence, best models, plans for heat stress and address social equity. The transformative scenario was reviewed in small group discussions This observation leads to our first major finding: that further developed the individual themes. Participants were asked to consider how working in a social and policy environment would There is a need to give attention to scoping and implementing be supportive to major transformative change in order to answer the competent strategic planning based on broad partnerships following questions: How can governance steer towards best-case future? that build capabilities for the ACR to anticipate and respond What is the role of legislation, regulation and policy in steering towards a appropriately to the risks and hazards of a changing climate. transformative future? Investment, employment and industry—emerging theme 2 Reinvigorating strategic regional planning—emerging theme 1 An emerging theme from this discussion was the need for an ACR that is Strategic regional planning was identified as a unifying framework for attractive to investment, employment and industry. Participants queried climate adaptation in the ACR. However, participants identified that how private industry gets involved in regional economic planning, for regional planning requires resources and clear rationales. Representatives what purpose, and what outcome? Others responded that private from local government thought that the regional strategy needed industry needs clarity and certainty in the planning frameworks for “reinvigorating”. According to one group of informants, robust strategic financing and investment decisions. Participants also felt that they (the regional planning needs: private sector and/or developers) need stronger development guidelines. • buy in, commitment, resources, time, money; • professionalism; The workshop identified that there is a need to better understand • a forward planning agenda; underlying demographic shifts. For example, on the south coast retiring • to deal with physical infrastructure, transport and shared services like baby boomers have been driving growth for decades and demand for health and education; services but this may be slowing. Likewise, there is ‘tree changer churn’ • a credible evidence base; and happening—populations are becoming more transient in regional • active participation and partnerships. locations. These kinds of economic planning and demographic changes would need to be taken into account in any future planning processes. The ACT and sub-region strategy from 1998 provided an example of a sound regional planning process. It used cross regional working groups, produced research and development papers for each main theme and involved all tiers of government. Participants suggested a similar process could/should be adequately resourced and repeated. Participants also thought that there is a need to understand if good plans result in good outcomes (or at least, less worse outcomes, reducing the risks of failures of public policy)? This kind of evaluation remains an important topic for research and development. Participants stated that the political nature of key decisions that affect strategic planning need to be overtly recognised. There are political, community, and economic benefits of good strategic regional and regional economic planning. The ACR needs good strategic regional planning regardless of climate change, but that good strategic regional planning should include climate change projections that use best Yass Valley, NSW. Source: David Flannery 18 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Summary The transformative change scenario builds on existing cooperation in • public transport; ACR. The workshop identified the appetite for strengthening regional • building standards; and sub-regional cooperation, through focusing on specific themes that • renewable energy; could benefit from regional and cross boundary collaboration such as: • a continued leadership role for emergency services, disaster prevention and post-catastrophic recovery; • regulatory cooperation and an alignment to planning, • planning and building standards; • transport and renewable energy; and especially for land and housing policy, and compliance • water supply and waste water. mechanisms; and • water supply and waste water. Participants considered that each designated theme ought to have working groups established that commission research studies. Each The idea that adoption of thematic working groups that sponsor greater working group should generate a research and investigation agenda for cross-border collaboration would lead to better outcomes for the ACR, is the ACR that would build confidence in the evidence base. supported by statements such as: These thematic working groups could drive funding, strategy “We need to re-instate the regional state of the environment report!” development and processes, and structures for dealing with common issues. Each theme group could include technical, policy and community “M&E [monitoring and evaluation] easier with NRM [natural resource representatives. Formalising these would provide a platform for working management]—it has a complex framework, national reporting, state on cross-border collaboration. Key to this was an idea that by forming jurisdictions” thematic working groups would lead to greater collaboration, trust and And the avoidance of not-so-good outcomes: development of common understandings and agendas. Participants recognised that this would need appropriate resourcing from the ACT “Sometimes it is policy opportunism; there are also many back room deals.” and NSW Governments, as well as the Federal Government. This discussion leads to the finding that: Regional adaptation planning requires a robust evidence base to inform successful policy development. Integrated regional planning, incorporating climate adaptation requires sustained processes for in-depth engagement of policy, research and technical personal. Platforms, like this project, that sponsor collaborations, enable shared understanding and increase confidence in an evidence base for developing, implementing and evaluating policies related to complex change processes including climate adaptation. And: Through exploring and responding to the four scenarios participants identified specific policy themes that could benefit from regional and cross boundary collaboration including: 19 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project 4.6 INCREMENTAL CHANGE This scenario is based on ‘business as usual’ and focuses on what happens if the ACR just keeps on muddling through. Under the incremental change scenario there is not much appetite for change, the shift in political environment is towards caution and steady survival: “no willingness to focus on problems without solutions being proposed” (Participant, Day 2). The general consensus was that only marginal change is possible under this scenario. Box 4 Incremental change scenario - summary Many new commuter developments were built around towns like Yass and Bungendore during the first decades of the 21st century. Canberra’s advantages of being a small planned city were squandered on uncoordinated sprawl around its margins that resulted in large numbers of long distance commuters. Hobby farms on small lot subdivisions of four to 8 hectares sprawl beyond Braidwood and Cooma and low cost housing in nearby NSW towns has attracted a growing population. For many, affordable houses are offset by high cost commuting on badly maintained roads to casual employment. Many people feel stranded - isolated with poor transport and services. The question of who should pay for regional services and infrastructure like roads remains unresolved. The highways and byways are high risk and the number and costs of road accidents is impacting health care providers. High energy costs for heating and cooling make many suburbs a poverty trap. Housing standards are low with most houses costly to heat and cool. After the pink bats scheme there is no appetite for programs to retrofit ageing housing stock. Electricity demand exceeds supply on hot summer afternoons when millions of air conditioners are on. Blackouts are frequent and electricity charges increasing. Summers are punctuated with health warnings about avoiding heat stress. The health costs of extreme heat are mounting. The model of regional development has been described as rampant incrementalism. Blame shifting between NSW and ACT is legendary. Planners face growing pressures from complex local plans and angry residents frustrated with delays in approval processes. Local governments face costs pressures, constantly patching up failing infrastructure. Competition to get new property developments is intense. Local government lacks the will and resources to push for high standards in planning or in building regulations. Developers and building contractors regularly flaunt standards knowing that there is little enforcement effort. Many ‘blockies’ on hobby farms don’t bother getting permits to build houses and ‘sheds’, however with increasing intensities of storms many of these structures fail. Due to relatively high unemployment and the high cost of conventional housing many backyard bungalows are built for renting. People are building ‘tiny houses’ to avoid mortgages. The debate about Australia’s housing and homelessness crisis predictability continues. Wildfires threaten the region’s towns most summers but extreme tree clearing have not reduced the risks. Many developments built on low-lying areas flood. Local governments have been sued for failing to determine flood and fire risks. Commonwealth disaster relief funds are diverted to other regions along the coast where the majority of voters are. The region’s universities fail to attract fee-paying students after a series of scandals about international students. A number of racist crimes further damaged the reputation. R&D is scattered and lacks focus. Competition for R&D dollars makes academics reluctant to cooperate. Optimism about economic diversification is misguided. New industry projects in the region are tied up in slow and complex regulatory approvals due to community opposition and scandals about shoddy environmental protection and corrupted land use planning. The Commonwealth won’t fund the ACR economic diversification strategies because previous funding failed to result in any significant economic and employment growth. The region’s reputation as being full of ‘fat cats’ on government pay cheques doesn’t help. Constraints limiting growth include: public opposition, confusing policy settings, lack of regulatory coherence, poor coordination, ageing and poorly maintained infrastructure. 20 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Focal questions for the incremental change scenario different regulatory frameworks if required, but that these all “talked to” Small groups worked to further develop individual themes under the and support the vision. incremental scenario—working in a policy environment unsupportive to major change. They focused on their selected themes, and the following More broadly, participants discussed the potential role of natural resource questions. How can governance steer towards a best-case future based management (NRM) as a useful tool for mapping gaps, but recognised on incremental change in policy settings? What is the role of legislation, that legal and regulatory challenges still remained even after the regulation and policy in steering towards collaborative approaches to identification of these gaps. climate adaptation? The project identified an appetite amongst senior decision-makers Summary of responses for consistent regulatory compliance mechanisms that enable and To drive adaptive change under the incrementalist scenario, regional facilitate cross-border monitoring and evaluation of adaptation planning models need to be focussed on positive developments and policy. Enhanced cooperative frameworks for monitoring, review designed to address specific needs. New visions would only be achieved and compliance may stimulate shared learnings, support innovation in incremental steps by conservatively building on established practices. and create efficiencies, as well as increasing the ability to ensure This approach was viewed as a low risk, but potentially high cost consistent development, planning and implementation of successful (especially long-term) option for a climate adapted future for the ACR. climate adaptation strategies. Participants identified change under this scenario as slow and cautious. Under incrementalism, there is likely to be a focus on small-scale success stories. Some specific issues like regional cooperation on water may become a useful catalyst for change. It was considered that the use of specific case studies, for example, exemplars of better practice land development could help ensure wider adoption of policy change. Finally, while change is slow and there is not much appetite for big picture visionary change, there is still a need to value public sector agencies as agents for bringing forth robust evidence and promoting adoption of better practice. Capital Wind Farm, Lake George, NSW. Source: Tayanah O’Donnell Legislation, regulation and compliance—emerging theme 4.6 EVALUATION – THE FOLLOW UP SURVEY The discussion on this emerging theme was centred on the primary Before the close of the workshop participants reflected on the question: to what extent does cross-border collaboration result in experience. The majority expressed strong and positive views on the legislative change? Participants canvassed a range of responses. In terms way in which it provided an opportunity for thinking creatively about of climate change adaptation specifically, participants felt that “we need policy options and for learning and networking. One week after the monitoring and evaluation for adaptation—is it adaptation, or climate workshop participants were emailed a post-workshop questionnaire. We impacts, what are the key hinges that we can monitor and evaluate?” received six completed survey responses, representing 22 per cent of the There was also the observation that “reliance on the market can lead workshop participants. Five of the respondents represented government to inequitable outcomes”, especially in relation to differing building and the sixth was a scientific expert. regulations and compliance mechanisms from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. Another participant (with many others agreeing) highlighted the General feedback from participants was positive on the main aim of importance of a “regional vision” that accommodated both diversity and the workshop, i.e. to facilitate and further enable regional collaboration on climate change adaptation. One survey respondent said that the workshop exposed them to “a broader range of potential collaborators”, and another will “definitely think about a broader range of collaborators in the future”. 21 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Most respondents felt that the ‘business as usual’ scenario could have Overall, survey participants’ feedback included comments such as: “great pushed a bit further in terms of the narrative, but on the whole the scenarios positivity about the workshop—was good to get dystopia out of the way had the right balance between complexity and realism. One participant early on!” and “the workshop in all honesty was much more interesting commented that “…on this occasion I do have some clear concrete tasks than I expected it to be”; “the venue was excellent, easy to find, good to take away with me…and the focus on policy/implementation for me was facilities and good catering”. In addition, “the timing was very good, in very useful because that is directly related to my job”. that we weren’t left stewing over one issue for too long, or rushed from one to the other with no time to really settle into a good discussion”, The conversation on innovation was very well received and and “the scenarios prompted some very broad, innovative thinking, and “enlightening”, as was the discussion on social equity issues. One survey allowed us to see more clearly what the priorities for adaptation are”. participant said, “it was also good to know I was in the same room as many of the other people who would be needed to make some of those The positive feedback received in the workshop and in the survey leads things happen”. to our final direction: On the legal and regulatory focus, survey respondents stated: “I will The establishment, formalisation or expansion of strategic research- definitely think more about the policy and legislative context for adaptation policy partnerships provides a useful avenue for synthesising and in concert with the technical feasibility” and that this broader focus innovating around the major regional policy and planning themes. could ensure “maximum uptake”. Others considered that “many of the These processes strengthen policy development and achieve impediments to good planning outcomes (which directly relates to climate synergies by involving multiple agencies, combining institutional adaptation) are from politics that we can’t control (or often, influence).” capabilities and bringing together diverse perspectives. Light rail construction, Flemington Road, Mitchell, Canberra. Source : David Flannery 22 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project were made between workshop participants, with a majority expressing 5 CONCLUSION that they had developed clear strategies and networks that would assist them to continue collaboration on climate adaptation. The workshop This report has detailed a project undertaken for the ACT Government provided a safe and engaging way to explore the inter-relationships in alignment with the requirements of Action Item 9 in the ACT Climate between law, policy and climate adaptation. However, as this was part of Change Adaptation Strategy. Action Item 9 specifies that by 2020 the a one-off project it leads to our first main finding: ACT will collaboratively ‘work with the region to improve awareness of climate change impacts to build resilience and adaptive capacity’. 1. competent strategic planning based on broad partnerships Following both the ACT Climate Change Strategy 2016 and the that build capabilities for the ACR to anticipate and respond Implementation Status Report 2017 (detailed above at section 2), climate appropriately to the risks and hazards of a changing climate. adaptation requires innovation. This report documents one innovative approach to explore climate adapted futures, in combining legal review The project itself has found regional planning is a useful integrating tool, with scenario planning in order to tease out key themes and findings, but it needs to be better supported by robust evidence and will require from the perspectives of senior decision-makers representing the ACT in-depth engagement with both experts and the community to ensure Government, NSW Government, three +1 local councils, CSIRO, and success. Critically, it was considered that strategic planning ought to be academic experts. supported by specific thematic working groups empowered to develop innovation and collaborations. A diversity of agencies and individuals need Against the backdrop of the effectiveness or otherwise of regulatory to be engaged because there is a wealth of evidence that government boundaries, the focus on the intersection of four factors (increasing climate departments need to work across both internal and external silos to ensure risk, existing regulation and policy settings, regional collaboration, and the efficient and robust exchange of relevant information. Our next two innovation) enabled creative thinking for climate futures set in the not-too- findings reconcile the need for technical depth and broad collaborations: distant future, ie in the lifetimes of most participants and facilitators. 2. The material documented in this report demonstrates that the project incorporating climate adaptation requires sustained processes for in-depth engagement of policy, research and technical personal. identifying the opportunities and barriers to regional collaboration Platforms, like this project, that sponsor collaborations, enable towards climate adapted futures; • shared understanding and increase confidence in an evidence base understanding the various ways in which the law is understood, for developing, implementing and evaluating policies related to interpreted and relied on by key decision-makers, in and for climate complex change processes including climate adaptation. change adaptation; • catalysing innovative ideas on regulatory and legal options for 3. adaptation and identify options for innovation in formulating Through exploring and responding to the four scenarios participants identified specific policy themes that could benefit from regional adaptive planning, policy and regulatory settings; and • Regional adaptation planning requires a robust evidence base to inform successful policy development. Integrated regional planning, met its stated aims of: • There is a need to give attention to scoping and implementing and cross boundary collaboration including: developing and testing methods for exploring the challenges and opportunities for regional collaboration on climate adaptation. The project also facilitated ongoing regional collaboration, demonstrating a willingness amongst agencies, policy professionals and researchers to continue regional collaborations on climate adaptation. Workshop • public transport; • building standards; • renewable energy; • a continued leadership role for emergency services, disaster prevention and post-catastrophic recovery; discussions and the follow-up survey highlighted that strong connections 23 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project • • regulatory cooperation and an alignment to planning, and create efficiencies, as well as increasing the ability to ensure especially for land and housing policy, and compliance consistent development, planning and implementation of successful mechanisms; and climate adaptation strategies. water supply and waste water. Finally, the balance between more ‘red tape’ and a level of oversight on Another significant finding is that there is an appetite amongst senior regional adaptation was recognised. Participants felt that a specific focus decision-makers for consistent regulatory compliance on cross-border on climate change mitigation and adaptation was required, and that this collaboration for climate change adaptation. The ability to ensure could be effectively delivered by Cross Border Commissioners or by consistent policy development, implementation and evaluation of some other kind of multi-agency partnership climate adaptation strategies was identified as crucial for monitoring and 5. evaluation purposes. This leads to the finding that: The establishment, formalisation or expansion of strategic researchpolicy partnerships provides a useful avenue for synthesising and 4. The project identified an appetite amongst senior decision-makers innovating around the major regional policy and planning themes. for consistent regulatory compliance mechanisms that enable and These processes strengthen policy development and achieve facilitate cross-border monitoring and evaluation of adaptation synergies by involving multiple agencies, combining institutional policy. Enhanced cooperative frameworks for monitoring, review capabilities and bringing together diverse perspectives. and compliance may stimulate shared learnings, support innovation National Arboretum and Lake Burley Griffin, ACT, 2013. Source: Tayanah O’Donnell 24 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Elmqvist, T., Gunderson, L., Holling, C. S., 6 BIBLIOGRAPHY Walker, B. 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Rickards L., Ison R., Fünfgeld H., Wiseman J. (2014), Opening and closing the future: climate change, adaptation, and scenario planning, Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy 32(4) 587—602. Slaughter, R. A. (2002), Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst Futures, 34, 3—4 Elsevier. Soste, L., Wang, Q. J., Robertson, D., Chaffe, R., Handley, S. and Wei, Y. (2015), Engendering stakeholder ownership in scenario planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 91, pp.250—263. Summerhayes, G. (2017), ‘Australia’s New Horizon: Climate Change Challenges and Prudential Risk’ available at: http://www.apra.gov.au/ Speeches/Documents/ICA%20Speech%20Geoff%20Summerhayes%20 17%20February%202017.pdf Termeer, C. et al (2011), ‘The Regional Governance of Climate Adaptation: A Framework for Developing Legitimate, Effective, and Resilient Governance Arrangements’ 2 Climate Law 159. 26 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project By law, we mean legal rules, institutions, cases, and interpretations of APPENDIX 1: PROJECT SUMMARY BRIEFING NOTE statute, case law, and enabling policies relevant to perceptions of law and of law’s relationship to climate change adaptation, as it pertains to cross- REGULATORY BOUNDARIES AND REGIONAL jurisdictional boundaries. The main variables in the scenarios will be the COLLABORATION FOR CLIMATE ADAPTED types of governance choices and frameworks, applied over time, within FUTURES IN THE AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL REGION the context of a changing climate. These will take as their starting point the need for policies and governance settings that consider, anticipate Project summary and/or respond to hotter, dryer, and more flood prone conditions in the This research project seeks to provide an evidence base to enhance ACR in the decades out to year 2100. The scenarios will follow a four- regional collaboration on climate change adaptation in the Australian quadrant methodology that explores: Capital Region (ACR). The project contributes to Action Item 9 in the 1. incremental change (business as usual) ACT Climate Change Strategy. Through this project the researchers, 2. transformational change (radical shift in perceptions) Tayanah O’Donnell and Jason Alexandra, will provide a legal and 3. dystopia (maladaptation) regulatory analysis that explores laws, regulations and guidelines relevant 4. utopia (ideal outcome). to the geographical context and the predicted climate impacts in the ACR. The project will use interactive or participatory scenarios that The scenarios will be detailed enough to enable consideration of evolve over time—sometimes referred to as living scenarios—to explore specific thematic issues that are likely to feature significantly in climate options for legal and regulatory reform that enhances adaptive capacity. adaptation, such as disaster preparedness and responses, land use The scenarios will be used in a participatory workshop to investigate the planning and sustaining regionally based economic activities. A planned potential planning, policy and regulatory settings that will enable regional outcome of using the scenarios is to enable improved understanding collaboration and adaptation. Specific themes relevant to adaptation in of the inter-linkages between the selected themes and the legal and the region will be explored against these legal and regulatory frameworks. regulatory frameworks developed and applied around these themes. Initial ideas on these themes are outlined in the scope section below. Initial themes to be explored include: • flood, fire and disaster Aims • settlements and infrastructure The project aims to: • regional productivity. 1. 2. 3. Identify both the opportunities and barriers to regional collaboration towards climate adapted futures as well as options for innovation in The themes will be explored using a multi-scalar approach to examining formulating adaptive planning, policy and regulatory settings. legal and regulatory frameworks that span specific local details through to Understand the various ways in which the law is understood, broad national policies such as: interpreted and relied on by key decision-makers, in and for climate • building codes and standards change adaptation. • land use planning systems Catalyse innovative ideas on regulatory and legal options for • disaster relief policies and frameworks. adaptation. 4. Develop and test methods for exploring the challenges and Outputs opportunities for regional collaboration on climate adaptation. The project has been designed to generate the following outputs: 1. the workshop, including the background paper and follow-up, is Scope and approach intended as contributing to supporting innovation and regional The project will use participatory scenarios for exploring the legal and collaborations 2. regulatory frameworks for climate adaptation working with the ACT, a research report, which will include identification of collaboration opportunities and future R&D needs, and NSW, and local councils in the immediate vicinity of the ACT border 3. (the “+1” local councils). 27 published papers outlining the methods used and results. Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Participants and their role We very much look forward to undertaking this research for the use and The research uses participatory methods as one of the main forms of benefit of key stakeholders in the ACT, in NSW, and +1 local councils. data collection. Participation in this research will involve the following: • Selected stakeholders will participate in a scenario-planning Tayanah O’Donnell and Jason Alexandra workshop. We are aiming for 25—30 participants, with at least one For more information contact: key expert for each theme participating. • The workshop will be held near Canberra airport over two days, for 4—5 hours each day (commencing the afternoon of Day 1, followed Tayanah O’Donnell via email by an optional dinner (funded by CURF, excluding alcohol), and Tayanah.O’Donnell@canberra.edu.au concluding by 1pm of Day 2). The workshop will be run using “Chatham House rules”—participants in the workshops will be identifiable to each other, but all data collected from the workshops will be decoded and reported anonymously. • Concurrent with the above there will be a short (two-page) pre and post workshop survey to be completed anonymously on arrival and before departure. • The tentative dates for the workshops are the Tuesday and Wednesday in the first or second week of September 2017, subject to availability of the venue. The project will be run as a research project through the University of Canberra and will have human ethics approval. The ethics application has been completed and will be considered by the Human Ethics Committee by mid July 2017. Shortly prior to the workshop, participants will be provided with a priming paper authored by O’Donnell and Alexandra setting out the four scenarios, the relevant legal and regulatory boundaries, and climate risks for the ACR, as well as explaining why they are attending. Confidentiality Only the researchers will have access to the individual information provided by the participants. Privacy and confidentiality will be assured at all times. The research outcomes may be presented at conferences and included in publications. In all distributions, the privacy and confidentiality of individuals will be protected. All data will be analysed according to theme. To preserve your anonymity, any interview transcripts will be de-identified. The data from the workshops will also be de-identified. The storage will be on a password protected area of the University of Canberra network and only the researchers will have access to the data which will be stored for five years prior to being destroyed. Both the research paper and following academic publications that arise from this research will have no names or other identifiers within them. 28 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project The importance of law to manage risks, or drive adaptation, remains APPENDIX 2: THE LEGAL CONTEXT critical (Waters et al 2013). Governments can use law to play a 2.1 INTRODUCTION coordinating role, demonstrating leadership and managing ‘whole-of- This section details the context of the background paper provided to society’ risks. For example, governments can prescribe legally enforceable participants in the workshop. It was developed to provide a general planning and development controls to give effect to strategic land use overview of the growing body of ‘climate law’ being neither an exhaustive planning that incorporates climate change adaptation. list nor an analysis of all relevant law related to climate change mitigation Private law is generally concerned to regulate interactions and or adaptation. relationships as between individuals (or entities given legal status, such This project takes a broad definition of law, to include instruments that may as corporations), while public law governs relationships as between the be considered as ‘soft’ law, or relating to governance frameworks. Thus, this individual and the state (government(s)). In reality, these public/private section and the workshop focus on both law and on governance, enabling categories can and often do overlap. For example, following the 2011 the examination of a wide range of drivers and mechanisms that influence Queensland floods after which a number of insurance policies were adaptation to climate change, extreme weather events, and extreme found to have competing definitions of flood, government changes to weather related variance. It also draws attention to wide range of key the Insurance Contracts Amendments Act 2012 (Cth) required insurers actors involved in managing risk across the ACR, including local and state to use a standard definition of flood in their contracts. The Australian governments, citizens, and the private sector. Prudential Regulatory Authority announced recently that it now requires that publicly listed companies are required to disclose climate related financial risks in their disclosure documents (Summerhayes 2017). Governance arrangements comprise the formal and informal mechanisms, structures and processes that influence the behaviour of key actors (Termeer et al 2011). Formal mechanisms include law and regulation, While a range of approaches can be used to reduce vulnerability and legislation and case law principles, and governance arrangements that exposure to climate-related risks, legal tools can have a critical role to influence adaptation and regional collaboration at all scales (Mees et al play in shaping behaviours. Of specific importance for the ACR and for 2012) but remain extremely complex (Godden et al 2013). climate change more generally are the following categories: • land use planning law While this section focuses primarily on the formal mechanisms, sufficient • contract law (force majeure) regard must be paid to the informal mechanisms, including the relationships • administrative law (government acting in the public interest) between different actors, institutions, external drivers such as action or • tort law (negligence) inaction by the private sector and other market drivers or constraints, as • corporate law (directors’ duties and disclosure of climate risk). these factors are a significant aspect of the enactment of laws. Each of these categories is discussed below, insofar as they are related to the project. The following section of this paper discusses, in a general form, pertinent legal topics and, where relevant, principles of law as relevant to climate 2.2.1 ADMINISTRATIVE LAW: LAND USE PLANNING change. These topics span private and public law. Land use planning laws focus on setting rules for permissible uses of land 2.2 SPECIFIC LEGAL AVENUES including zoning of land, the provision of statutory planning instruments Underpinning law and legal frameworks are concepts that relate to the including those that specify development type and location, and the formulation of, and responsibility of managing, risks as between parties granting of statutory powers to decision-making authorities to grant or often for some future risk(s). Causation, ie. who causes compensable development consents, specify site specific controls, and determine damage or loss, the assignment of liability, and measures of dispute strategic, longer term planning agendas. The states and territories hold resolution including, as a last resort, litigation are all important pillars of these powers as per their respective Constitutions. the Australian (Western) legal system. Land use planning is set out by a legislative framework, informed by various other regulations and guidelines. In New South Wales, the 29 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project relevant legislation is the Environment and Planning Assessment Act for events deemed outside their control. For insurance products, this is 1979, and for the Australian Capital Territory, it is the Planning and commonly associated with ‘acts of god’ extreme weather events. Development Act 2007. Because of its ability to incorporate an array of collective interests, and require action across various spatial, temporal These ‘unforeseen’ events are said to affect the performance of the and governance scales, planning is viewed by some as well positioned to contract and may nullify or render the contract voidable. Common force facilitate adaptation (Hurlimann and March 2012). majeure events include: lightning, storm, explosion, flood, landslide, bush fire, earthquake, acts of terrorism or epidemics (McDonald 2011). State governments and local governments create land use planning law. The state is usually responsible for the zoning of land including Contract law is increasingly relevant in a climate change context. The overlays (which places rules of permissible or disallowable use over ways in which the insurance sector structures its risk and insurance particular parcels of land). Local government is usually responsible for products, particularly for house and contents during natural disasters and development consent and strategic planning. In the ACT, responsibility extreme weather events, can have consequences for governments in the for development consent lies with the Planning and Land Authority, as following ways: per the Territory Plan 2008. • additional pressure on emergency response services (in the immediate/short term) • Closely related to land use planning laws are environmental laws and controls. additional pressure on social support services (in the disaster recovery phase) Many of these can have federal government involvement, such as via the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1993 (Cth). • reinforces the idea of the ‘government’ as ‘the insurer of last resort’ (Productivity Commission 2014). Planning laws can also interact with the private sector to encourage change. For example, the 2011 Productivity Commission inquiry Barriers to Climate 2.2.3 ADMINISTRATIVE LAW: THE PUBLIC INTEREST Change Adaptation found that the role of the insurance sector was critical Generally, there is no private duty on governments to disclose climate risks. in driving adaptation. Despite insurance being regulated at the national However, under broad administrative law requirements, governments must level in Australia, there remains a role for land use planning in providing act ‘in the public interest’. Acting in the public interest has been taken to protective works (such as the building of dams), the provision of mapping include mandatory considerations of climate change risk in some decision- information (such as NARCLiM), and other building controls. making contexts (see, for example, Walker v Minister for Planning [2008] NSWCA 22). In most jurisdictions, statute provides protection to public Land use planning laws play a significant role for infrastructure and authorities for breach of statutory duties provided they are undertaken in flood planning as they determine (among other things) zoning of land ‘good faith’ and to a reasonable standard (for example, under section 733 of and the type and nature of built infrastructure. Where development is the Local Government Act 1993 (NSW)). ill-conceived in terms of location, structure, and/or materials, it carries a risk to government where such property is damaged or lost in an extreme Courts have in various contexts determined whether disclosure weather event. of information is required ‘for the public interest’. For example, in Queensland, in the case of Hancock Coal Pty Ltd v Kelly & Ors and Additional risks include loss of life where development is placed in Department of Environment and Heritage Protection (2014) 35 QLCR 56, high-risk locations (including from flood, or fire). These risks can place the granting of a water licence may have had impacts on groundwater additional pressures on emergency services and other ‘first responders’, and therefore sustainability under relevant legislation, and so the relevant during an extreme event, and bring with them extensive recovery costs in decision-maker was then required to make the decision to grant the water the aftermath of the event. license ‘in the public interest’. 2.2.2 CONTRACT: FORCE MAJEURE AND THE RELATIONSHIP On the whole, public interest considerations require balancing good BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND THE INSURANCE SECTOR decision-making with risk. This includes the risks associated with future The ‘force majeure’ rule removes responsibility from contracting parties legal challenges. 30 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project 2.2.4 TORT LAW: NEGLIGENCE In February 2017, Geoff Summerhayes, the Chairman of APRA gave the General negligence principles can result in civil action as between opening speech to the Insurance Council of Australia Annual Forum. individuals, between government(s) and individuals, between individuals His observations were that climate related risks are now relevant and and corporate entities, and often a combination of all three. important for all APRA regulated entities (including insurers), that many climate risks are financial in nature, and ‘foreseeable, material and The general law of negligence holds that certain parties hold a duty of actionable now’ (Summerhayes 2017). care towards others to avoid causing them harm. A legal action can result if this duty is breached. In a climate change context, this can mean duties With climate risks now widely agreed as including physical risks (i.e. of care relating to development approvals, protection works, the provision impacts to property or business due to extreme or sudden events), or of information, and the avoidance of negligent misstatements. transition risks (i.e. the effect of law, policy, or litigation, or other market changes, as economies transition to renewable economies), companies Tort law is created by common law principles and by statute, and while like the Commonwealth Bank of Australia are facing litigation brought by there are defenses available under the Civil Liability Acts of NSW and shareholders who allege that they are failing to disclose climate related the ACT, the standard of care differs as between parties. Governments risks. This litigation is now made possible with Australian courts recently are usually held to a higher standard, particularly if the duty relates to increasing the ambit for shareholders to sue (O’Donnell 2017). These operational procedures (Pyrenees Shire Council v Day (1998) 192 CLR 330). actions will put increasing pressure on governments to ensure policy certainty. For the private sector, there is an increasing range and scope of The recent provision of publicly available information, such as site specific relevant material risks resulting from climate change (Barker 2017). data mapping, may give rise to a legal action where that information is relied upon by a person or entity and they suffer causative and 2.2.6 CONCLUSION foreseeable harm as a result of this reliance (L Shaddock & Associates Pty Specific legal contexts for the ACR that can expect to be tested under Ltd v Parramatta City Council (1981) 150 CLR 225). future extreme weather and climate related events and risks include: land use planning systems, disaster relief policies and frameworks, and Liability may arise where decision-makers have expert information potential negligence claims. The threat of claims brought, though not and ignore it. Liability in negligence will always be determined by the reaching full judgment, cannot be understated either; participating facts of a particular case. This may arise in a local government setting (willingly or otherwise) in such litigation is a material risk to both where an engineering department has an expert report advising against reputation and to financial balance sheets (Barker 2017). development in a high risk location due to expected climate change impacts over the lifespan of the asset, but the land use planning While an understanding of legal frameworks can help identify where law department make a decision approving the development. acts as a driver or barrier to climate change adaptation, its effectiveness as a positive tool remains reliant on the influence of different key actors In such circumstances, it would be important to have a clear policy across spatial, temporal and governance scales. Leveraging this can assist framework that manages risk (including that arising from climate change), governments, the private sector and individuals to effectively manage the excellent record keeping, and cross referencing within the government climate risks they may face now, and into the future. authority to ensure that critical information and expert reports are not ignored or omitted from a decision-making process. 2.2.5 CORPORATE LAW: DIRECTOR’S DUTIES AND DISCLOSURE REQUIREMENTS In late 2016, publicly released legal advice from Noel Hutley SC advised that directors to fail to consider the impact of foreseeable climate change risks on their business could be held personally liable for breaching the duty of due diligence and care they owe to the companies under the Corporations Act. 31 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project devoted to protecting low lying coastal regions and suburbs of APPENDIX 3: THE SCENARIOS major cities being swamped by rising sea levels • 3.1 INTRODUCTION anticipatory policy and regulatory settings are not relevant under This section contains the four scenarios in the form and in the order pressing economic conditions. Dominant political philosophy they were explored at the workshop. There is both a summary of the focused on downsizing and reducing the regulatory burden. four scenarios and the full scenarios follow, as distributed prior to the Neo-liberal ideology promotes individual self-reliance branded as workshop where we did not attempt to refine the scenarios but used resilience. Resilience promoted by leading academics. them as devices for exploration. In section 4 (above) we document the 3.2.2 UTOPIAN GROWTH AND PROSPERITY—SCENARIO 2 responses to the scenarios arising from the process used at the workshop. Key elements of utopian growth and prosperity scenario: • 3.2 SUMMARIES OF THE FOUR SCENARIOS Canberra population and economy grows, including high value industry growth 3.2.1 DYSTOPIA (MALADAPTATION)—SCENARIO 1 Key elements of dystopia unlimited scenario are: • Canberra gains a reputation as liveable medium sized city • ACR economy stalls, all infrastructure and prior capital investments • Canberra is seen as an exemplar of regional and urban planning treated as sunk cost, for example, solar energy and light rail • light rail and transport infrastructure are success stories initiatives scraped after party funded by the fossil fuel and car lobby • there are long-term formal collaborations on integrated regional plans comes to power • regional fire risk reduction and planning builds on the lessons of 2003 Australia Civil and Climate Defence Force established. It provides • there is strong regional natural resource management (NRM) with • biodiversity conservation and carbon farming active economic stimulus and increased employment responding to • natural disasters, floods, fires, cyclones, sea level rise • • urban supplies nationally new infrastructure expenditure focuses on climate defence including sea walls, ley banks, increasing hydraulic drainage • there are sustainable and multi-functional agricultural/rural landscapes efficiency of rivers • climate risk is used to drive responses through a revamped Regional Leaders Forum no collaborations on regional planning—suburbs and the towns • ghettoise as welfare slums • there is continued high investment in water infrastructure secures ACR policy and regulatory settings are recognised as contributing to the regions social and economic advantage. low standards in building result in many substandard buildings that struggle to survive the high intensity storms; the courts are choked • • with cases seeking damages for poor construction and planning 3.2.3 TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE—SCENARIO 3 decisions Key elements of a transformative—transformational change scenario are: flooding is common due to intense storms, poor planning and poor • ACR economy grows steadily with strong R&D and innovation culture drainage • ACT, NSW and Commonwealth formalise regional authority to undertake strategic planning and implementation for the ACR bush fires rage most summers with many smaller villages and towns • near forests abandoned. Catastrophic fire conditions are frequent • and lack of preparedness results in big losses and damage bills economic transformation and climate adaptation including strong heat stress is the highest cause of death when desert winds drive in community mobilisation and engagement • from the inland. Red dust covers everything, this results in serious • and sand entering eyes, nose and mouth. • conservation, no carbon farming large scale amalgamations of local government • refugees from the South coast move to the region sustaining systemic regional risk assessment of all major risks, particularly flooding and fire, modelled and mapped under a range of climate scenarios • land use planning integrates risk mitigation with economic development, transport and infrastructure population growth in ‘rural shanty towns and slums’ • formal measurement of regional planning results, with all willingly contributing. no regional Natural Resource Management (NRM), no biodiversity • all policy and regulatory settings are reviewed with the intention of establishing regime of elegant and cost effective regulation respiratory tract infections. Face guards are used to prevent dust • special national project status to accelerate effective regional • Commonwealth disaster relief funds are no longer available after integrated local and regional scale practices for fire risk reduction eg. all pine plantations replaced with oak woodlands primarily for regular fires, droughts and floods. National disaster relief funding 32 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project • • biomass and fire risk reduction also used for speciality timber, pork, 3.3 DETAILED SCENARIOS cork and truffle production 3.3.1 SCENARIO 1: DYSTOPIA cluster settlements around existing farm infrastructure must After approximately 50 years of relatively steady expansion of its low rise, comply with minimum standards for fire protection before new car based suburbs the Canberra region is in a gradual decline. Existing housing is permitted infrastructure, both private and public, is used but it is often treated as a housing standards are high with flexible design and siting guidelines. ‘sunk cost’ to ring a dividend out of whenever possible. Passive and active solar architecture is actively promoted • • intensification of Canberra continues. Many medium density A range of Commonwealth policies have driven dramatic changes developments replace low-rise suburbs, linked by light rail and including decentralisations and regional relocation of agencies. These cycling tracks with living infrastructure—parks, urban forests etc— have significantly reduced the number of jobs in the ACR. With declining ensuring attractiveness and liveability employment came declining house prices, producing double trouble for water supplies are drought-proofed by utilising high storages the former employees and residents of region. in the Snowy and irrigation water rights purchased from the • • Murrumbidgee system A lack of regional industry other than Government has made the region most climate change impacts anticipated and disasters averted particularly vulnerable to reducing government employment. The only through detailed planning and regional mobilisation. Successive increase in employment has been with the military, which is increasingly revisions of building standards required due to increasing intensity called on to respond to natural disasters, floods, fires, cyclones, sea level of storms rise etc. An entirely new arm of military has been established known heat stress remains a concern but a large number of urban cooling as the Australia Civil and Climate Defence Forces (ACCDF)—a new technologies have minimised the feared health impacts. Active training centre has been established on the former site of the failed programs of urban wetlands, urban forestry and street tree renewal pine plantations near the Cotter River. After a succession of wild fires are part of a ‘cooler cities initiative’, reducing heat stress and these plantations were deemed to be both uneconomic and too big a dissipating urban heat island effects. risk to the urban areas of Canberra. The ACCDF is one of the major employers particularly for unemployed university graduates. There is 3.2.4 INCREMENTAL CHANGE—SCENARIO 4 intense lobbying, bribery and corruption to snare an ACCDF facility or Key elements of incremental change and a ‘muddling through’ scenario are: training event, because it provides economic stimulus to local areas. The • ACR population sprawls across region, the economy slows and stalls ACCDF has a major engineering program modelled on the American • competition between councils for urban growth income Corp or Army Engineers. They are involved in building sea wall defences • limited collaborations on regional planning, poor regional and urban and realigning rivers and creeks to reduce flooding in certain priority planning zones. So far none of these works have been commissioned in the • car-based transportation and infrastructure dominates uplands of the ACR, although a trial channelisation of Ginninderra Creek • housing standards slip in efforts to increase affordability; with high and Molonglo River was paid for the ACT after urban wetlands and operating costs and poor energy standards riparian revegetation was blamed for flooding of several suburbs during flood risks intensify and cost increase due to poor planning allowing intense storms that dumped cyclonic rains on the region. • development on floodplains • regional fire risk reduction focused on ‘wall to wall’ clearing didn’t Canberra’s outer suburbs and the towns surrounding Canberra have work. Fires regularly threaten villages, towns and suburbs started to ghettoise, with some areas becoming recognised as welfare competition for water resources results in severe restrictions on slums. Police and other emergency services are reluctant to enter these water supplies after some shocking incidents. Flooding of lower areas is common • agricultural/rural landscapes sustain population growth in ‘rural slums’ because drains are often blocked with debris and refuse. Bush fires are • climate impacts dealt with through reactive catch up policies common most summers and many smaller villages and towns near forests • ACR policy and regulatory settings are recognised as contributing have been abandoned. • to the region’s stalling economy and growing social disadvantage. 33 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Much public infrastructure has been built to poor standards due to poor impossible to retrain into private sector jobs. Instead Government contract management and supervision. Private sector building standards assistance is provided to relocate people to other areas of Australia, are even worse with many substandard buildings struggling to survive particularly to work in the booming northern and western mining provinces. the high intensity storms that ravage the region. Governments introduce buyer beware policies, where individuals have to be responsible for their National and international tourists view the Canberra region as a large decisions as there are no more bail outs. Courts are choked with common quaint ‘national and heritage park’ with its museums of democracy. law cases where claimants are seeking damages for poor construction. Tourism remains a small but important part of the economy, using ageing But since building standards have been abolished the lack of standards hotels and other facilities for conferences that can be held at lower costs makes it hard to prove fault. than other cities. Heat stress is the highest cause of death each summer when the desert The ACT’s commitments to solar energy and light rail were scrapped winds drive in from the inland. These winds bring clouds of red dust that after a party funded by the fossil fuel and car lobby came to power. cover everything including lining peoples’ lungs. Serious respiratory tract infections are common. People have taken to wearing face guards to NSW is so broke it tries selling the local government areas around prevent the dust and sand entering eyes, nose and mouth. Canberra to the ACT Government but they don’t want the additional liability. In the end the NSW Government opts for major local The Canberra region’s many advantages are not enough to sustain government amalgamations in an effort to reduce costs. A mega south employment and industry growth due to a range of other constraints to eastern NSW council is formed which amalgamates all councils South economic diversification that prevailed. Constraints include confusing East of Canberra. Bega is the centre of government for the region. and unstable policy settings, regulatory incoherence, expensive logistics Another mega council is formed on the southwest slopes with Wagga as and the non-competitive scale of Canberra’s industries. Capital flight the seat of power. The result is most villages and towns feel distance to from Australian processing and manufacturing continues to erode local government—it is no longer local. confidence and few businesses want to relocate to the Capital region where many costs are high. The decades-long mining boom has resulted in high cost for labour and transport across Australia. These are the major impediments to retaining Community opposition to government planning hardens partly due to industries exposed to global markets and make studying in the ACT costly failures of previous plans and the cost of getting permits through expensive compared to many other countries. Like manufacturing before a chaotic system. Loopholes in the environmental laws resulted in the them, the overseas students have relocated to Asian and South American ACT being used as dumping ground for industrial waste including highly countries where lower costs and generous incentives make them attractive toxic substances like PCBs and other dioxins. The full extent of this was locations for both studying and labour intensive industries. not discovered until a shoddy recycling centre caught fire sending a toxic smoke plume over many Canberra suburbs.1 The international toxic Efforts to establish a “Grown in the Canberra Region” brand are not protest movement called for buyer boycotts on regional products. They successful, supermarkets are flooded with canned fruits and juices from use the Internet to perfection and smeared a ‘smelly’ reputation across Chile and South Africa, tomatoes and sauces from Italy, frozen veggies any Canberra Region branded products. The toxic storage issue and the from New Zealand, and cheeses and milk products from all over the world. Mr Fluffy scandals combine to give Canberra a poor reputation. The These are cleverly marketed as the gourmet benefits of globalisation. repeated failure of water and wastewater treatment facilities contributes to the poor reputation for environmental standards. Many housing developments were built on low-lying areas that became regularly prone to flooding and those adjoining forests became prone The Commonwealth and NSW Governments are no longer prepared to regular bushfires. A series of landmark legal cases resulted in local to fund Canberra region’s proposals for infrastructure and economic governments being sued for failing to use advanced climate modelling diversification after previous attempts failed to result in any significant to determine future flood and fire risks. Most local governments are economic and employment growth. Most former public servants proved basically broke yet they have increased rates to exorbitant levels. 1. http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/toxic-smoke-fears-linger-20110915-1wran.html 34 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Commonwealth disaster relief funds are no longer available to the region over their life so buyers can determine their prospective homes energy after regular fires, droughts and floods because disaster relief funding and other performance. rules have changed with most funds devoted to protecting low lying coastal regions and suburbs of major cities being swamped by rising sea The regional land use and economic planning is just right, neither too levels. The inland regions are simply not a priority for either infrastructure restrictive nor too laissez faire. There is strong acceptance of government or disaster relief, after all the majority of voters are spread along the interventions in the wider landscape to reduce risks posed by wild fire. coastal margins. Regional landscape management is a recognised profession focused on both conservation and risk mitigation. Land use planning for minimising Consideration of reforming policy and regulatory settings is not seen as flood impacts is based on detailed planning regimes that have been relevant under the current economic conditions. The dominant political revised to accommodate higher intensity storms. Advanced climatic philosophy has been focused on downsizing and reducing the regulatory and hydrological modelling support this work. The region’s creeks and burden so that business can get on with growing the economy. A new rivers are managed to maximise water and biodiversity conservation, wave of neo-liberalism ideology is promoted which focuses on self- and urban amenity and to ensure floods impacts are minimised. Urban reliance and ‘do it yourself’ for most issues. This is branded as resilience. wetlands feature prominently in most suburbs and the recreation of As a result, there is willingness to abolish most government interventions floodplain wetlands has been a priority throughout the region. All suburbs and leave most decision to the private sector. There is almost no and towns have living climate strategies based around the use of living confidence in government’s ability to get things done. infrastructure, namely, urban forests, street trees, urban wetlands and other bio cooling systems.2 3.3.2 SCENARIO 2: UTOPIAN GROWTH AND PROSPERITY The Commonwealth Government continues to use Canberra as Canberra region attracts capital and talent to its planned city that enables the primary seat of Government agencies with major employment the region to offer an enviable lifestyle away from Australia’s crowded growth. Private sector employers also thrive. Canberra gains reputation and under planned State capitals, with their middle and outer suburbs as liveable medium sized city with the education and R&D sectors clogged with traffic jams and inner suburban housing that can only be expanding and gaining international reputation. afforded by multi-millionaires. Regional and urban planning is an exemplar, combining Australian The ACT, NSW and Commonwealth Governments have active policies pragmatism with world best practice. Urban design and quality of housing to support relocation and expansion of businesses to the ACR through improves through high grade building standards suited to the climate and a range of incentives and facilitation programs designed to reduce conditions. Transport planning is integrated, with urban transit nodes built congestion in Sydney. around the light rail network. High-speed rail connections and Canberra airport connect ACR to national and international connections frequently The ACR’s competitive advantage over other Australian regions by passing Sydney’s crowded and dysfunctional airports. is due to insightful planning and physical and social infrastructure. Landmark regional planning collaboration agreements endorsed by all Investments in high quality regional scale social and physical infrastructure governments build on the world’s best practice principles in urban and has seen overall improvements in transport, housing, schools and hospitals. regional planning, including serious commitment to robust institutional The adoption of the fourth regional plans sees all the villages and towns arrangements, environmental protection and environmental risk in region being planned together regardless of whether they are in NSW assessments. Population and business growth is a result of the advantages or the ACT and as result property developers are unable to play off local of complementary physical, social and industry infrastructure, with governments to get lower standard projects up. Property developers and training, planning, coordination of marketing and R&D, being co-located builders are actively competing for market share with their climate friendly, in medium scale city. eco-friendly housing developments in either medium density or low rise. All work exceeds the regulated minimum standards. Independent assessors Sustained export growth in a range of industries resulted from the use objective measures and publish the performance criteria of buildings region’s 2019 economic diversification strategy. This supports industry 2. http://www.curf.com.au/news/article/?id=curf-publishes-living-infrastructure-report 35 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project coordination, commercialisation of R&D and the emergence of high carbon farming policies. This provides further incentives to consolidate value-add, industry clusters. These drive demand for professional agriculture in the highest productivity areas. A series of regional wildlife and industrial employment. The region’s industry policies attract corridors including from Kosciusko to the coast and the Great Eastern high tech industries, including biomaterials and bio-manufacturing, Ranges gain international recognition,3 and are part of vibrant regional sensor technology and advanced technology development. The ACR tourism industry that likewise spans from the South Coast to the higher universities develop an international reputation for advanced R&D on a mountains. Walking, mountain biking and wildlife tours are popular. wide range of commercial relevant disciplines. Cultural tourism thrives with the Bundian Way4 an important walking trail for international tourists who tend to visit regional galleries and museums The relatively high cost of road transport did not impede a swarm of as part of their discovery of the region’s rich natural and cultural heritage. new industries relocating to the Canberra region. Industry support The Canberra region is recognised as one of the leading biophilic cities, policies attracted capital and R&D intensive industries, such as software, winning awards for its integration of biodiversity within and around the IT and medical technology companies. The ACR region attracts urban areas. capital-intensive industries from interstate and overseas. Many small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have fled the crowded and expensive The ACR is recognised for education and R&D. The ACR has many conditions in Sydney and Melbourne, choosing the advantages of internationally recognised teaching and R&D programs spanning many another capital to relocate. Capital and expertise ‘migrated’ into Australia disciplines and contributing to regional economic development. These from SE Asia (including Canberra region). Businesses are attracted to support collaboration across many faculties and disciplines including reliable professional staff, including for pharmaceuticals and advanced engineering and design, geography and environment, business and bio-based industries. Advanced industrial systems that rely on a range economics and the natural and computing sciences. UC and ANU of inputs, for example, eco-industrial systems including bio-energy, are cooperate on many initiatives including the successful CURF program, growth business. now in its 23rd year.5 With many well-paid professionals, the ACR becomes renowned The ACR’s primary industries including forestry and agriculture continue for its lifestyles and land values in and around the many thriving to grow in significance, including through a specialty food and fibre villages and towns increase steadily. Due to orderly land use planning, industry. The region’s coolish climate becomes seen as an advantage supported by high quality modelling, housing estates are not as lower altitude and inland regions swelter under higher summer located in areas prone to or predicted to flood under climate change temperatures. scenarios. Areas at risk of occasional flooding are now zoned for Overall there is buoyant demand for Australian agricultural exports intensive and reliable agricultural production. including to China and India. Export markets grow by meeting global Governments globally embrace climate mitigation policy, and a global demand for high value, quality assured products, such as pharmaceuticals, market for agricultural offsets stimulates investment in low emissions herbs, teas, spices, food and fibre. “Grown in the Canberra Region” is a farming and strategies for sequestering carbon in the regions landscapes. recognised brand and there is strong local support for local production, This provides a strong financial incentive to consolidate agriculture best seen at the ACR’s thriving farmers markets. Direct relationships with in intensive, high production areas, and to move away from farming overseas buyers ensure strong ‘chain of custody’ guarantees. Marketing is marginal lands, where reafforestation and carbon farming are tending to used to add to the feel good ‘mystique’ of the “Canberra Region Quality dominate. Regional scale fire risk reduction is practised based on high Naturally” brands of food and wine products. In Beijing, Hong Kong and quality R&D. Tokyo, air quality data is used as evidence of Canberra region pollution free atmosphere with marketing images of the windswept Monaro tablelands, the Australian Alps in the background. A sequence of innovative rural landscapes initiatives built resilience, by harnessing the R&D and innovation capacity of the ACR. The region’s governments work together to actively promote sustainable and multi-functional agricultural/rural landscapes aligning direct action 3. http://www.greateasternranges.org.au/our-partners/ger-regional-partnerships/kosciusko2coast/ 4. http://www.bundianway.com.au 5. http://www.curf.com.au 36 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project Affluent urbanites throughout Asia identify the “Canberra Region towns becomes an employment hub by its successful promotion of Quality Naturally” brand with nature, purity and quality. Food and wine specialised industry clusters. For example, Goulbourn becomes a centre and nature tourism complements exports and creates employment rich for railway construction and maintenance, and Bungendore has a thriving service industries. Many SME provide specialist logistics, marketing and timber craft and antiquarian book cluster of businesses. Solar and wind coordination support adding value to on-farm production. energy systems’ R&D and manufacture is a speciality of Queanbeyan centre around the innovative technology of the company Dyesol or Water supplies are secure and water politics are cool in the region despite Greatcellsolar Pty Ltd6 that is working on artificial photosynthesis, some tough droughts. The historic regional Water Accord limits further enabling glass, steel and concrete that can be solar generators. Entire public outrage and disruptive protests at the damming and modifications office buildings and industrial estates and office building are now coated of rivers. The strong commitment to environmental flows and riverine in solar generation technology built in to the roofing, cladding and glass, ecosystem protection ensures that the Water Accord lasts. The region’s making installation of solar PV redundant. governments are champions of riverine restoration and are leaders in implementing the local landcare, catchment protection and the adoption All councils agree to end ‘cookie cutter’ rural subdivisions but population of International Water Stewardship Standards. growth in rural areas is promoted and accommodated via cluster settlements around existing farm infrastructure. Each cluster must Focus on regional collaboration remains strong. Repeated and science comply with robust minimum standards for fire protection before new based assessment of climate risk are used to drive responses through housing is permitted. Wild fire risk reduction is undertaken via local revamped Regional Leaders Forum. Innovative programs assess physical and regional scale practices, such as strategic fuel reduction grazing, risk and social vulnerability and are used as the basis for proactive clustering of housing stock in well-watered zones, use of low flammability measures. Damage and loss have been substantially reduced due to vegetation like deciduous trees and separation of housing from bushland proactive anticipatory policy settings. Businesses have been engaged in fringes. Careful design and construction is also used to reduce fire risks preparation and recovery planning. to buildings. The systematic harvesting and use of bioenergy stocks is justified on its fuel reduction benefits. A number of medium scale 3.3.3 SCENARIO 3: TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE bioenergy plants can be seen throughout the region and have created The ACT, NSW and Commonwealth agree to form a new regional a strong market for biomass materials grown and harvested specially authority to undertake strategic planning and implementation for the ACR. for the plants. Careful management of wildlife reserves ensures that The new ACR Planning Authority is given special project status with the this done without detriment to flora and fauna. All the pine plantations aim of accelerating effective regional scale economic transformation and are removed and replaced with oak woodlands primarily for biomass, climate adaptation. The ACR is one of seven regional scale initiatives being fire reduction but also used for speciality timber, pork, cork and truffle trialled. The central purpose of the trial is to establish a test case to see how production. Across the wider landscape the strategic planting of exotic rapidly Australian regions can be weaned off their fossil fuels dependencies trees is actively promoted, delivering fire reduction benefits. This ends and adopt proactive climate adaptation practices. several decades of nativists’ ideology being solely imposed on the region. The multicultural landscape is recognised as one of its distinctive All policy and regulatory settings are subject to review and revision features, promoted in the tourist websites. Fast growing willows and with the intention of establishing a regime of elegant and cost effective poplars are grown on wastewater irrigation and harvested in short regulations. Land use planning is overhauled and a new regional plan rotation for the biomass plants. gazetted. All councils and the ACT contribute to the plans development Housing standards are high yet the design and siting guidelines are and willingly comply. flexible. Passive and active solar architecture is actively promoted The region is comprehensively mapped and modelled for major risks throughout the region and is regarded as one of its speciality skill bases. including flooding and fire under a range of climate scenarios. Land Construction innovation is promoted and low interest loans are available use planning integrates risk mitigation with economic development, for the energy transformation of old housing and building stock. Design transport and infrastructure development. A multi nodal, multi village features and technology innovations are used in combination to make model for Canberra and the nearby towns is adopted. Each of the 6, https://www.dyesol.com or www.greatcellsolar.com. 37 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project the housing suitable for the climate with its extremes of heat and cold. Climate change impacts have been as anticipated and most disasters Deep earth systems for cooling and heating are frequently adopted after have been averted through detailed planning and regional mobilisation. being successfully trialled at the Geosciences Australia building in the Successive revisions of building standards have been required due to the late 1990s. 78 intensity of storms. Heat stress remains a matter of concern, but a large number of urban cooling technologies from wetlands and urban forests The intensification of Canberra’s suburbs continues with many medium through to misting systems for large scale evaporative cooling have density developments replacing the former low-rise suburbs. These minimised the feared health impacts. nodes are linked by light rail and cycling tracks. A world-class program of living infrastructure ensures the attractiveness and liveability of Driving the transformation scenario have been active policy and regulatory the city and complements the transport and physical infrastructure. settings focused on: The program’s design is tracked back to a CURF report on living • enabling transformative technologies and practices 9 • targeting government programs to focus on key elements of the infrastructure published in 2016. transformation plan An active program of urban wetlands and urban forestry and street tree • sponsoring innovative business and R&D renewal is underway as part of the ‘cooler cities initiative’. Testing their • sharing regional responsibility via a structured regional plan effectiveness in reducing summer heat and dissipating urban heat island • mobilising communities and business towards agreed policy goals effects is part of the regional program. This is one of the many objective • replacing ageing built infrastructure with new systems measurements of energy, water and materials used in evaluating the complemented by living infrastructure, eg. light rail and geothermal regional initiatives impacts. heating and cooling The ACR regional plan is not simply imposed by a bunch of technocrats, • formal mechanism for load sharing between local and state government • introduction of tighter standards and planning scheme that could be used to hold government accountable for effecting change community mobilisation and engagement is recognised and critically • important. All schools and many local groups are involved in anticipatory policy settings focused on minimising climate change impacts reconfiguring their local areas and in delivering elements of the initiatives. The region’s universities are also actively involved in undertaking the • active climate vulnerability assessment • preparedness to re-conceive of how to manage the regional landscape to reduce risks R&D needed to support the transformations, and ironically the local focus is seen to have global relevance. Urban system dynamics, urban • some large biomass energy farming futures and social engagement in urbanity are some of the areas that UC • promoting regional industry clusters in 21st century industries, and and ANU receive international recognition and various awards. • monitoring policy impacts and measuring successes. Flooding of suburbs is not a problem due to strict land use planning and 3.3.4 SCENARIO 4: INCREMENTAL CHANGE several innovative ‘room for the creeks’ programs. The region’s water supply This scenario is based on ‘business as usual’ and focuses on what happens has been drought proofed, through utilising high storages in the Snowy if we just keep on muddling through. Scheme and irrigation water rights purchased out of the Murrumbidgee. After a flurry of new commuter developments in and around towns There has been steady move of irrigated cropping out the western areas like Yass and Bungendore during the first decades of the century new into the higher country with its cooler summers and local food and fibre housing demand waxed and waned, aligned to Canberra’s employment production is actively promoted. A number of value-adding industries boom and bust cycles. Hobby farms on small lot subdivisions of four to link local food and wine to the gourmet tourism market—food and wine 8 hectares have sprawled beyond Braidwood and most of the way to tours are a particular focus of Chinese tourists. Cooma. The lower cost of housing in the nearby local government areas has attracted a growing population to surrounding towns. For many 7, http://www.abc.net.au/news/specials/curious-canberra/2017-07-31/curious-canberra- the affordable cost of the houses is offset by the high cost commuting geothermal-heating-energy/8723048 on badly maintained roads to Canberra where most casual jobs are 8. http://www.ga.gov.au/about/facilities/building 9. http://www.curf.com.au/news/article/?id=curf-publishes-living-infrastructure-report 38 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project available. Their high energy costs for heating and cooling make many of priority for either infrastructure or disaster relief, after all the majority of these suburbs a poverty trap. Many people feel stranded and isolated voters are spread along the coastal margins. with poor transport and social services. This problem has worsened by the NSW Government moving public housing out of greater Sydney Housing standards are low and most houses are costly to heat in winter to municipalities around Canberra, in order to take advantage of the and cool in summer. After the failed pink bats scheme there has been no services provided by the ACT Government. appetite for programs focused on retrofitting the ageing housing stock. In summer there are health warnings about how to avoid heat stress and The Canberra advantages of a smallish planned city became squandered health costs of extreme heat are mounting. Electricity demand exceeds on uncoordinated sprawl around its margins with large numbers of supply on hot summer afternoons when millions of air conditioners are people commuting long distances. Early optimism about economic on. Blackouts are frequent and electricity charges are increasing. diversification was not justified with the Commonwealth remaining the dominant economic force. Constraints limiting planned growth included The South East forests remain the centre of intense disputes with NSW growing public opposition to regulation, confusing policy settings, lack of intent on logging most of the coastal and escarpment forests to satisfy regulatory coherence, poor coordination, ageing and poorly maintained world demand for hardwood and to fuel a number of new bioenergy infrastructure. The questions of who should pay for regional roads plants planned along the coast, but the ‘forest protest movement’ remains unresolved, with squabbling backwards and forwards to such an remains avidly opposed to this. extent that the highways and byways are high risk and the number and costs of road accidents is impacting health care providers. The region has had several seasons of severe water restriction, partly because several planned water resources developments were constrained Competition between local governments is intense with all of them by complex regulatory processes and plagued by costs over runs. Water clambering to get new property developments as a way of getting some resources are not shared across borders. Plans for increasing irrigation in local employment. Local government planners typically have less than the uplands of the Murrumbidgee Valley have stalled because the protest two years experience and many quit due to the pressures of complex movement was adept at using the Internet, to give a ‘smelly’ reputation and difficult local plans and angry residents frustrated with delays in to the ACR regional irrigation strategy. This campaign taints the region’s approval processes. Developers and building contractors regularly flaunt reputation and many products are difficult to sell overseas. European standards knowing that is little enforcement effort. Many ‘blockies’ on and Asian tourists tend to avoid the Canberra region because of its poor hobby farms are not even bothering to get permits to build new houses reputation as a destination, deemed too hot and dusty in summer and and sheds, however with increasing intensities of storms a number of cold and uninviting in winter. these structures fail. Due to relatively high unemployment and the high cost of conventional housing many backyard bungalows are built for Wildfires threaten the region’s towns and villages most summers and renting. Throughout the region people are building ‘tiny houses’ in an extreme tree clearing policies around suburbs, towns and villages have effort to avoid mortgages and the debates about Australia’s housing and not reduced the risks. homelessness crisis continue with great predictability. New industry projects in the Canberra region are tied up in slow and Many new developments were built on low-lying areas prone to complex regulatory approvals, due to community opposition and some flooding and adjoining forests prone to bushfires. A series of landmark scandals about shoddy practices in environmental protection and poor legal cases resulted in local governments being sued for failing to use land use planning. advanced climate modelling to determine future flood and fire risks. Commonwealth disaster relief funds are delivered into the region after The Commonwealth Government’s regional industry policy hardened: fires, droughts and floods but increasing demand for disaster relief sees no business receives any direct or indirect handouts. After the tough funding spread thin. Billions of dollars of both NSW and Commonwealth 2018 budget, the Commonwealth became increasingly reluctant to fund funds have gone to try to protect low lying coastal regions badly hit by Canberra region’s economic diversification strategies, partly because freak storms and rising sea level. The inland regions are simply not a previous funding programs had failed to result in significant economic 39 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project and employment growth. The region’s reputation as being full of ‘fat cats’ on government pay cheques didn’t help. The Australian Government remains an avid free-trade advocate despite limited progress in influencing international trade policy. The capital region’s high cost of labour, energy, water and transport became major impediments to attracting investment from increasingly globalised industries. Many industry are relocating to NZ and South America where lower costs, especially salaries and generous tax incentives, make theses more attractive locations for globally focused industries. The region’s universities fail to attract many fee-paying students after a series of scandals about international students. A number of racist crimes further damaged the reputation. The R&D is scattered and lacks focus. Competition for R&D dollars makes academics reluctant to cooperate. The hard line “free market” Government rejected calls for increasing university or industry funding. Efforts to establish a “Grown in the Canberra Region” brand are partially successful, particularly amongst the remaining public servants who have well paid full time employment. Even though the snow tourism has mostly died, many cashed up Sydneysiders travel south occasionally supporting many boutique cottage scale businesses based on art, food and wine tourism. The Australian Alps gain an image as a quaint, historic ‘must see’ location for at least one holiday in the average middle-class Australia’s life, but overall tourism lingers. Local governments are constantly reacting to pressure to act in the interest of their locality, responding to changing voter demands and costs pressures, constantly patching up failing infrastructure. Local government lacks the will and resources to push for high standards in planning or in building regulations, as result the regional development has been described as rampant incrementalism. Blame shifting and feuding between NSW and ACT on many policy matters is legendary. The Kings Highway remains one of Australia’s deadliest roads, partly due to the lack of investment and partly due to the number of Canberra drivers charging down the coast for their weekends away. Proposal for a toll road have been floated but failed to gain traction. 40 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project APPENDIX 4: PROJECT METHODS AND WORKSHOP AGENDA Throughout the two day workshop, the 26 participants were grouped at one of three tables, each with a facilitator. As per our ethics approval, and to encourage frank and fearless discussion, all participants have been de-identified. After each session, we requested participants to move around the room. This ensured that each of the four scenario discussions had a different mixture of participants. The group facilitators were Tayanah O’Donnell, Jason Alexandra and Jo Mummery. At the end of the workshop attendees were invited to reflect on what they learnt at the workshop and whether it would enable them to advance collaborative approaches in their professional roles. They were also given an opportunity to provide feedback via a short survey after the event. Additional methodological steps included: • undertaking a literature review of legal and generic regional issues • the provision of a legal issues summary document prepared (see Appendix 2) • the development and refinement of the four scenarios (see Appendix 3) • the circulation of a workshop briefing pack (project summary, scenarios, legal review) • the analysis of workshop material including notes, transcripts and survey responses • the generation and refinement of this research report. WORKSHOP AGENDA PROPOSED TIME AGENDA ORGANISATION 12.30pm-1.00pm Registrations – informal discussion – evaluation and research ethics forms Researchers 1.00pm-2pm Welcome – Introduction and purpose Facilitators Introductions, welcome, initial sole exercise – reminders re ethics forms Individual reflection re workshop goals Sole followed by Group Icebreaking exercises—personal introductions and identification of critical policy issues discussions Individuals to write up to three ideas on how legal and policy processes can enable adaptation in the ACR Project background and introductions Presentations from Clarification and discussion re the workshop and project researchers Aim to enhance understanding of scenarios in policy processes and the art of workshop communication Provides project background and purpose, ensures common framing Big picture drivers’ presentation 2pm-2.45pm Group discussions Dystopian scenario Introduction to a dystopian future Small group exercise of up Review of a dystopian scenario—small group plus feedback and discussions. Each group to have scribe and rapporteur to 5 or 6 based on numbers How can governance steer away from a worse case future? What is the role of legislation, regulation and policy in steering away from Report back altogether dystopian future? Please provide specific examples of possible policy or legislative briefs? Emphasis is on institutions, governance practices, role of legislation, regulation and policy 41 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project 3pm-3.30pm Afternoon tea 3.30pm-4.30pm Utopian scenario Introduction to a utopian future Small groups of up to 5 or Review of a utopian scenario—small group plus feedback and discussions. Each group to have scribe and raconteur 6 based on numbers How can governance steer towards a best case future? What is the role of legislation, regulation and policy in steering towards a Report back all together utopian future? Please provide specific examples of possible policy or legislative briefs? 4.30pm-5.00pm Plenary discussions Emphasis is on project methods, scenario narratives and influence in opening up thinking re prospects for change in both legal/policy Facilitator/ and collaboration options all together Personal reflections on day 1 Concluding discussions and wrap-up 9.30am-10.20am DAY 2 SESSION 1 Reflections on day 1 General discussions on day 1 Whole group Legal and/or policy themes/briefs Facilitators distil legal and/or policy briefs proposing subjects for development of more detailed investigations into processes to enable Facilitators collaborative action on adaptation. Discussion with group to see if selections cover previous days major themes Discussion in small group exercise Self select into small groups to discuss and review themes to have ready for exposure to larger group—use discussions to sharpen Small group exercise arguments for the why and what is needed to develop policy and legal reforms on this theme One theme/proposals per table for feedback and critiquing 10.30am-10.50am Afternoon tea 10.50am-12.30pm DAY 2 SESSION 2 Small group exercises Incremental change (based on business as usual) Muddling through 10.50 - 11.30 Further develop individual themes under the incremental scenario—working in a policy environment unsupportive to major change. Focusing on the theme, “How can governance steer towards a best case future based on incremental change in policy settings?” What is the role of legislation, regulation and policy in steering towards collaborative approaches to climate adaptation? Transformative scenario – 11.30 - 12.10 Review of transformative scenario—small group plus discussions. Further develop individual themes under the incremental scenario—working in a social and policy environment supportive to major transformative change. Focusing on the theme “How can governance steer towards a best case future?” What is the role of legislation, regulation and policy in steering towards a transformative future? Plenary session – feedback on both scenarios (15-20 minutes) Workshop conclusions 12.10 - 12.40 – whole group Comments on methods and outcomes Personal reflections on impacts Next steps 42 All together Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project APPENDIX 5: POST-WORKSHOP QUESTIONNAIRE The size and format of this survey has been reduced for the purposes of this report. Climate Adapted Futures: 2017 Workshop Post-workshop questionnaire Name: Affiliation – please nominate ACT Government NSW Government Academic Local Government Other, please specify Please provide general feedback on the use of climate adapted futures scenarios for progressing understanding on the role of law, regulation, and policy for adaptation in the ACR: 1. On a scale of 1-5, how did you rank Day 1 ? Please also provide any specific feedback below: Please rank: very useful 1 2 3 4 not very useful 5 Specific Feedback: 2. On a scale of 1-5, how did you rank Day 2? Please also provide any specific feedback below: Please rank: very useful 1 2 3 4 not very useful 5 Specific Feedback: 3. Did the workshop improve your understanding of climate adaptation in the ACR? A great deal Please rank: 4. 1 very little 2 3 4 5 Did the workshop change your personal views on priorities for climate adaptation in the ACR? For this and the following questions, please DELETE the option that does not apply. i.e. if your answer is ‘no’, please delete ‘yes’. • No • Yes (if yes, please specify how and why your views have changed) 5. Did the workshop change your views on opportunities for using laws and regulations for climate adaptation? • No • Yes (if yes, please specify how and why your views have changed) 6. Did the workshop change the way you think about potential collaboration on adaptation in the ACR? • No • Yes (if yes, please specify) 7. Did the workshop change what do you see as the likely priorities for adaptation research? • No • Yes (if yes, please specify) 8. As a result of attending the workshop, are you likely to change the way you work on adaptation in the future? • No • Yes (if yes, please specify) 9. As a result of attending the workshop, are you likely to change the way you work on inter agency and jurisdictional collaboration in the future? • No • Yes (if yes, please specify) 10. Any other feedback? THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION IN THE WORKSHOP 43 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project APPENDIX 6: HUMAN ETHICS APPROVAL 44 Regulatory Boundaries and Climate Adapted Futures in the Australian Capital Region A CURF Research and Development project 45