2012
In the 1990s and 2000s, small arms and their proliferation emerged as a major issue in the international as well as in the domestic public policy sphere. The authorities in many countries made efforts to restrain civilian possession and encourage citizens to get rid of their guns, often in the wake of highly mediatized lethal incidents with firearms. At the same time, widespread frustration existed among practitioners and academics at the lack of knowledge about how many small arms existed and the lack of hard data on civilian firearms possession. In order to tackle this problematic state of affairs, in 2007 the Small Arms Survey published a first detailed assessment of the global distribution of factory-made civilian firearms. The Small Arms Survey estimated that worldwide, nearly 79 million of these were known to be registered with the authorities, while the number of firearms owned by civilians was estimated at approximately 650 million. Frustration over a lack of hard data on civilian firearms possession can also be said to apply in the case of Belgium. This is not to say that no estimates exist. The Small Arms Survey itself estimated civilian firearms ownership in Belgium as between 1.500.000 and 2.100.000 arms (of which 870.000 were said to be registered), an average of 17,2 firearms per 100 people. These estimates were based on a press communiqué of the Council of Ministers of Belgium (December 2005) and on articles in the Belgian press. Similar numbers also figured in the explanatory notes attached to the draft of a new Weapons Act which was tabled in the Belgian Federal Parliament in February 2006, and in a note published by the Groupe de Recherche et d’Information sur la Paix et la Sécurité (GRIP) in Brussels in June 2006, in the wake of the introduction of the new Belgian Weapons Act. However, although the estimate of 1.500.000 to 2.000.000 weapons became commonly used and widely quoted4, it is not without its problems. Not least, the source and the method applied to arrive at this estimate remain unclear. Moreover, policy makers, stakeholders and the media do not consistently use this figure of 1.5 to 2 million guns. In some cases the figure is used to indicate the total number of guns (both legal and illegal), while in others it is quoted to refer to the number of illegal guns in circulation. Of course, because of their illegal nature, estimating the number of illegally held guns will always be a complicated exercise. In the course of a major research project undertaken by the Flemish Peace Institute on the trade, possession and use of firearms in Belgium, we were not able to find a satisfactory method, based on the available evidence, to calculate an estimate of the total number of privately owned guns in Belgium (legally plus illegally held firearms, the latter including firearms owned by criminals and guns irregularly held by citizens). The statistical information on which to base an adequate estimate is simply not available. For the moment, the reality is that nobody knows how many firearms are privately owned in Belgium. This observation does not, however, imply that it is completely impossible to provide figures about the incidence of gun ownership in Belgium. In this paper we use two methods to map gun ownership in Belgium. First we turn to registered gun possession. The Belgian ‘Central Weapons Register’ and the databases of provincial weapons administrations make it possible to provide figures relating to the number of registered gun owners, the number of registered guns, the number of guns that have been handed in or regularized during the amnesty and regularization campaigns following the introduction of the new Weapons Act, and the number of stolen and lost guns. Second, we use the results of telephone surveys to gain a view of the profile and historical evolution of gun ownership in Belgium, and to examine Belgian rates of gun ownership in a European perspective. By combining these two methods, we are able not only to offer informed data on rates of gun possession in Belgium, but also to point to indications that private gun ownership in Belgium is declining.