‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﮐﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻠﻤﯽ‪ -‬ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﯽ‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك‬ ‫ﺟﻠﺪ ﺑﯿﺴﺖ و ﻫﺸﺘﻢ‪ ،‬ﺷﻤﺎره اول‪1400 ،‬‬ ‫‪23- 43‬‬ ‫‪http://jwsc.gau.ac.ir‬‬ ‫‪DOI: 10.22069/jwsc.2021.18451.3402‬‬ ‫ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي و ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي‪ ،1‬اﺑﺮاﻫﯿﻢ ﻣﺮادي*‪ ،2‬ﺳﯿﺪ ﻣﻬﺪي ﺣﺴﯿﻨﯽ‪ 2‬و ﻋﻠﯽ ﺳﺮدارﺷﻬﺮﮐﯽ‬ ‫‪1‬داﻧﺸﺠﻮي دﮐﺘﺮي ﮔﺮوه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪ ،‬داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن‪2 ،‬اﺳﺘﺎدﯾﺎر ﮔﺮوه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪ ،‬داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن‬ ‫ﭼﮑﯿﺪه‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ درﯾﺎﻓﺖ‪ 1399/07/19 :‬؛ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﭘﺬﯾﺮش‪1399/12/04 :‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺑﻘﻪ و ﻫﺪف‪ :‬ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎت ﻣﻄﺮح ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺸﺮ در ﻗﺮن ﺣﺎﺿﺮ دﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب اﺳﺖ‪ .‬رﺷﺪ روز‬ ‫اﻓﺰون ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و ﮔﺴﺘﺮش ﺻﻨﻌﺖ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﮐﺸﺎورزي در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺧﺸﮏ و ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺧﺸﮏ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب ﻣﻄﻤﺌﻦ را ﺑﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از‬ ‫ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎي اﺳﺎﺳﯽ ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﮐﺮده اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب و ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ ﺷﺪن وﺿﻌﯿﺖ آن در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﺷﺮب‪ ،‬ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪،‬‬ ‫ﺻﻨﻌﺖ و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ را ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﮑﻞ ﺑﺰرﮔﯽ روﺑﻪرو ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﯾﮏ اﺻﻞ اﺳﺎﺳﯽ و ﺿﺮوري‪ ،‬رﺳﯿﺪن ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻧﺴﺒﯽ‬ ‫در زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ آب اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﯾﺠﺎد ﻧﻈﺎم ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ آب ﭘﺪﯾﺪار ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻮاد و روشﻫﺎ‪ :‬ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﺎ ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‬ ‫و ﺣﺠﻢ آب ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪﻫﺎ در ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي ‪ 1379-1397‬ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﺗﺮاز ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﮔﺎمﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ داده ﺷﺪ و اﺳﺎس ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ در ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﺷﮑﻞﮔﯿﺮي ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ﺟﺮﯾﺎن‪ -‬ذﺧﯿﺮه ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻪﮐﺎرﮔﯿﺮي از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ‪ Vensim‬اﺛﺮ ﻫﺮﮐﺪام از ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮ روي ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه و ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن و ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ‬ ‫ﻣﺪل ﺑﻪ روشﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ آزﻣﻮنﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮازش ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ‪ :‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ آزﻣﻮنﻫﺎ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ واﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺖ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﺪل ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺎ رﻓﺘﺎر ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ در‬ ‫واﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪاي ﮐﻪ ﻃﺒﻖ آزﻣﻮنﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﺷﺪه و ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ‪ ،0/84‬ﺧﻄﺎي ﺟﺬر ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت )‪ (RMSE‬ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ‪ 0/25‬و ﻣﻌﯿﺎر‬ ‫ﻧﺶ‪ -‬ﺳﺎﺗﮑﻠﯿﻒ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ‪ 0/77‬در ﺳﺎل ‪ 1397‬ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺮاي ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪ ،‬ﺷﺮب و ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﻞ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ در ﺳﺎل ‪ 1410‬از‬ ‫‪ 1350/01‬ﺑﻪ ‪ 1515/93‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ وﺟﻮد ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻏﯿﺮﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻫﺎ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﺷﺮب ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد‪ .‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﮐﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري ‪ 70‬درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت آب )ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ‪ (%50‬ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺪل اﺟﺮا ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﻣﺴﺌﻮل ﻣﮑﺎﺗﺒﻪ‪ebmoradi31@gmail.com :‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ )‪ ،(28‬ﺷﻤﺎره )‪1400 (1‬‬ ‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي‪ :‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري ‪ 70‬درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت آب‬ ‫)ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ‪ (%50‬ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺪل اﺟﺮا ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد ﮐﻪ ﻫﺮ ﯾﮏ از اﯾﻦ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد وﻟﯽ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ در‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي اول )راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري ‪ 70‬درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي( ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪ .‬در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﮐﻠﯽ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﮐﻪ اداﻣﻪ روﻧﺪ ﻣﺼﺮف ﻓﻌﻠﯽ و ﺑﻪ ﺗﺒﻊ آن اداﻣﻪ ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺑﺎ ﻫﻤﯿﻦ روﻧﺪ‪ ،‬اﺛﺮات ﺟﺒﺮان ﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮي در ﭘﯽ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ‬ ‫داﺷﺖ‪ .‬در اﯾﻦ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي ﻣﺼﺮف ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‪ ،‬رﻋﺎﯾﺖ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺣﺪي و ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮓﺳﺎزي ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ‬ ‫ﻋﺪم اﺳﺮاف ﺟﺰو ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪي در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﺤﺮان ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ و ﯾﮑﯽ از اﺳﺎﺳﯽﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭘﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﺼﺮف ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫واژهﻫﺎي ﮐﻠﯿﺪي‪ :‬ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ‪ ،‬ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي و ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب‪Vensim ،‬‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‬ ‫در دﻫﻪﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺧﺸﮏ و ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺧﺸﮏ‬ ‫ﻫﺪف ﮐﻪ داراي ﺗﻌﺪادي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮي اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻗﯿﻮدي اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪ .‬ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي‬ ‫آب از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ راﻫﺒﺮدي ﺟﻮاﻣﻊ ﺑﺸﺮي و‬ ‫ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﻃﺮحﻫﺎ و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺮي ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار در ﺟﻬﺎن ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬اﯾﻦ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫اﺳﺖ )‪ .(20‬ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺸﺮ و ﻋﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ و ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻓﺮد ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺪودﯾﺖ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار‪ ،‬وﺟﻮد ﺑﺤﺮان آب ﻧﺎﺷﯽ‬ ‫ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ رﻓﺘﺎر ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﯽﭘﺮدازﻧﺪ‪ .‬اﻋﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي‬ ‫از اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ رﺷﺪ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي در ﻗﺪرت و ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﯾﯽ آنﻫﺎ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺣﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ )‪ 19‬و ‪ .(21‬ﻗﺴﻤﺘﯽ از ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﻣﻬﺎر آبﻫﺎي ﺳﻄﺤﯽ‬ ‫داراي رواﺑﻂ و ﻗﯿﻮدﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ ،‬در ﺻﻮرﺗﯽﮐﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪوﺳﯿﻠﻪ ﻣﺨﺎزن اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪ .‬وﺟﻮد ﻣﺤﺪودﯾﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺪﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي ﺧﯿﻠﯽ ﮐﻢ ﻗﺪرت و ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺗﺤﺖ ﮐﻨﺘﺮل و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﺪاوم ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻧﯿﺎز‬ ‫رﺳﯿﺪﮔﯽ ﺑﻪ آن ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ را دارﻧﺪ )‪ .(13 ،9‬ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ و ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب داراي ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب دارد‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪاي ﮐﻪ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻤﯽ اﺳﺖ و ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﯾﮏ اﺑﺰار ﻻزم و ﺿﺮوري‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﮔﺮدد‪ ،‬ﺳﺒﺐ رﻓﻊ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي ﻧﺴﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮي در ﻓﺮاﯾﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ )‪.(8‬‬ ‫ﻓﻌﻠﯽ و آﯾﻨﺪه ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪ .‬ﻫﺪفﻫﺎي ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن در ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﯿﺎن ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻣﻮﺟﺐ اﯾﺠﺎد ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ از‬ ‫ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد و ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ در رواﺑﻂ ﺧﻄﯽ‬ ‫اﯾﻦ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‪ .‬ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ‬ ‫و ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ‪ ،‬ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﻀﻼت و‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻤﻨﺪي و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻃﺮحﻫﺎي ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ در ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﺎ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب را ﺳﺨﺖﺗﺮ و ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪهﺗﺮ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺖ ﭘﺎﺳﺦﮔﻮﯾﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻫﺎي آب اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﯽﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ )‪ .(4‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪﮔﯽﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ‬ ‫)‪ .(15‬ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي راﯾﺞ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب و ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ در‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺰنﻫﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي‪،‬‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻞ و واﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ آن‪ ،‬ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﻪ ﯾﮏ ﻧﮕﺮش ﺟﺎﻣﻊ و‬ ‫ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي و ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي و ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﮐﺎﻣﻞ و آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺮ دارد‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪاي ﮐﻪ ﻫﻤﻪ ﺟﻮاﻧﺐ‬ ‫در ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي ﺑﺮ ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ و ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ ﮐﺮدن ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار و ﺑﺎزﺧﻮردﻫﺎي اﺟﺰا ﺑﺮ ﻫﻤﺪﯾﮕﺮ را ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺑﯽ‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ ‫ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﻣﯽﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ و در ﻧﻈﺎرت ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ و آﺗﯽ‬ ‫ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮﺳﺎزي ﻧﺮخ ﺗﺼﻔﯿﻪ ﻓﺎﺿﻼب و ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﺑﻬﺮهوري‬ ‫در اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج راﻫﺒﺮدي و ﮔﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ اﺛﺮﮔﺬار‬ ‫ﻣﺠﺪد از آب ﺷﻮد‪ .‬ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ‪ ،‬راه اﺳﺎﺳﯽ ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫اﯾﺠﺎد ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﯿﻦ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺑﻬﺒﻮد‬ ‫از اﺑﺰارﻫﺎي ﺳﻮدﻣﻨﺪ در ﻧﮕﺮش ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪ در‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ آب ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎي ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ اﺳﺖ )‪ .(19‬ﻋﺰﯾﺰي و‬ ‫ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي و ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽﻫﺎ‪ ،‬روﺷﯽ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﮕﺮش‬ ‫ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪ ،(2017‬ﺑﻪ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اوﻟﯿﻦﺑﺎر ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﺎرﺳﺘﺮ در‬ ‫ﺳﺪﻫﺎي ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ اروﻣﯿﻪ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫دﻫﻪ ‪ 60‬ﻣﻄﺮح ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﻋﮑﺲ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي رﯾﺎﺿﯽ‪ ،‬روش‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﻃﺮحﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﻪﮐﺎرﮔﯿﺮي در ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺳﺎزهاي در ﺳﻄﺢ ﺣﻮزه ‪ 42‬درﺻﺪ از ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ورودي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﮐﺮوﺳﮑﻮﭘﯽ ﭘﻮﯾﺎ و درازﻣﺪت را دارد و ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﯿﺎن‬ ‫ﺑﻪ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ را ﮐﺎﻫﺶ دادهاﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ از اﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺣﺪود‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي‪ -‬اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب‪ ،‬زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ %26‬ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺑﻬﺮهداري از ﻫﻔﺖ ﺳﺪ اﺻﻠﯽ اﺳﺖ و‬ ‫ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﺳﯿﻞ و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ آﺳﯿﺐﻫﺎي ﺣﻮادث ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ را ﺑﻪ‬ ‫‪ %16‬در ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺑﯽ ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ )‪ .(4‬ﺑﺪﯾﻦﻣﻨﻈﻮر‪ ،‬اﮐﺜﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از ﻧﯿﺎز آﺑﯽ در ﺣﻮزه ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ )‪.(3‬‬ ‫ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮان ﺟﻬﺖ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻣﻬﺮآذر و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪ ،(2017‬در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪاي ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪهاي ﭼﻮن ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب‪ ،‬از رﻫﯿﺎﻓﺖ ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب‪ ،‬ﮐﺸﺎورزي‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﻬﺮه ﻣﯽﺟﻮﯾﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي‪ -‬اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ دﺷﺖ ﻫﺸﺘﮕﺮد ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد‬ ‫ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدﻫﺎي روﯾﮑﺮد ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ داﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮏ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪﻫﺎي‬ ‫دﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮑﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ‬ ‫ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن روﺑﻪ ﮔﺴﺘﺮش ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬در ﻃﻮل ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻣﺪل ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ‪ ،‬ﻧﯿﺎز آب ﺷﺮب‪ ،‬ﻧﯿﺎز آب‬ ‫اﺧﯿﺮ‪ ،‬ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮاﻧﯽ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن در ارﺗﺒﺎط‬ ‫ﺻﻨﻌﺖ و ارزش اﻓﺰوده ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻣﺪل ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر‬ ‫ﺑﺎ آب‪ ،‬اﯾﻦ روﯾﮑﺮد را ﺑﻪﮐﺎر ﺑﺮدهاﻧﺪ‪ :‬اﻋﻠﻤﯽ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ ‫ﺑﺎزﺳﺎزي رﻓﺘﺎر ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ درون ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫)‪ ،(2015‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﭘﻮﯾﺎي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺳﺪ و آبﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺑﯽ واﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺷﺪه و ﻧﺸﺎندﻫﻨﺪه ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺪل در‬ ‫زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ آب ﺑﺮاي ﺳﺪ ﮔﻠﮏ‬ ‫ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب دﺷﺖ ﻫﺸﺘﮕﺮد ﺗﺤﺖ‬ ‫ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ آﻧﺴﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺣﺪاث ﺳﺪ‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ در دورهﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﺬﯾﻪاي ﮔﻠﮏ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﺻﺪدرﺻﺪ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي ﺷﺮب‪،‬‬ ‫اﯾﻦ ﻣﺪل را ﻣﯽﺗﻮان اﺑﺰار ﭘﺸﺘﯿﺒﺎن ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ در ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﻌﺖ و ﮐﺸﺎورزي از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ‪،‬‬ ‫اﺛﺮات ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﻫﺎ و اﻗﺪامﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺑﯿﻼن ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ را ﺑﻪ ‪0/57‬‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ دﺷﺖ ﻫﺸﺘﮕﺮد در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﺤﺮان آب ﻣﻮﺟﻮد‬ ‫رﺳﺎﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺗﺰرﯾﻖ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ‪ 2‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن‬ ‫در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻪﮐﺎر ﺑﺮد )‪ .(10‬ﺻﺒﺎﻏﯽ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪،(2018‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﭘﺨﺶ ﺳﯿﻼب ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ )‪ .(1‬ﺳﺎن و‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي و ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﮑﺎﭘﻮي آب ﺳﺪ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪ ،(2017‬در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪاي ﺑﻪ ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري ﭘﺎﯾﺪار‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺰﻧﯽ ﺷﻬﯿﺪ ﯾﻌﻘﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب در ﭼﯿﻦ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي ‪ 1378 -91‬ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﯾﮏ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي و ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯽ و‬ ‫ﭘﺎﯾﺪار ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻧﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺳﺒﺐ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﭘﺎﯾﺪار و‬ ‫ﻣﺸﻮرت ﺑﺎ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ‬ ‫ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺖ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ زﻣﯿﻦﻫﺎي زراﻋﯽ ﺷﻮد‪ ،‬ﺑﻠﮑﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﺳﺪ و ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﮑﺎﭘﻮي آب )‪ (W.D.P‬ﮐﻪ‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ )‪ ،(28‬ﺷﻤﺎره )‪1400 (1‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎدل ‪ 0/128‬ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ )‪ .(14‬ﺳﻠﻄﺎﻧﯽ و‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻻزم داﻧﺴﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﯿﺰاده )‪ ،(2018‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ آب ﮐﺸﺎورزي در‬ ‫در ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ‪ ،‬ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪ ،‬اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي‪-‬‬ ‫اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ )‪ (IWMsim‬ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦﮐﻪ ﺗﺎﮐﻨﻮن ﻫﯿﭻ ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﯽ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﻣﺪل‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ و ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﻗﺎدر اﺳﺖ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﮐﻠﯿﺪي ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻧﺴﺒﯽ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري و ﻧﯿﺰ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫زراﻋﯽ‪ ،‬ﺗﺮاز آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ و ﺷﻮري آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ را‬ ‫رواﺑﻂ و ﺑﺎزﺧﻮردﻫﺎي ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺼﺎرف ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن اﻧﺠﺎم‬ ‫ﺑﺎ دﻗﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﮐﻨﺪ )‪ .(16‬ﺳﺎﻧﮓ و‬ ‫ﻧﮕﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪ ،(2018‬ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮد ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﺑﻌﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﻬﻢ در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي‬ ‫ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ در ﻣﻮرد ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ از آب‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‪ ،‬در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮي از‬ ‫در ﺷﻬﺮ ‪ Zhangjiakou‬در ﮐﺸﻮر ﭼﯿﻦ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ اﺛﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺮ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ از ﺳﺎل ‪ 2013‬ﺗﺎ‬ ‫ﺣﺠﻢ آب ﻣﺨﺎزن و ﮐﻤﺒﻮد در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫‪ ،2025‬اﻫﺪاف ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ از آب‪ ،‬از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺣﻔﻆ آب و‬ ‫ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﻣﺤﯿﻂ آب‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﻧﺮخ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎزﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪاي اﮐﺴﯿﮋن ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ‪ %12/6‬و ﻧﺮخ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻮاد و روشﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ‪ %4/3‬در ﻣﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ‪ :‬درﯾﺎﭼﻪ و رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻓﺼﻠﯽ ﻫﺎﻣﻮن‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ در اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب اﺣﯿﺎ ﺷﺪه‪،‬‬ ‫و ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ در دﺷﺖ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن‪ ،‬از اﻫﻤﯿﺖ وﯾﮋهاي‬ ‫ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از آب‪-‬ﻫﺎي زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ و ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺣﻮزه ﻫﺎﻣﻮن ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‪ ،‬داراي وﺳﻌﺖ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﺻﻨﺎﯾﻊ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب ﻧﻘﺶ دارد )‪.(17‬‬ ‫‪ 34‬ﻫﺰار و ‪ 273‬ﮐﯿﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮﻣﺮﺑﻊ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ‪ 74/5‬درﺻﺪ‬ ‫اﯾﮑﺴﯿﻨﮓ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪ ،(2019‬ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از‬ ‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ در ﺳﻄﺢ اﺳﺘﺎن اﺳﺖ‪ .‬رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﺮاي ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ‬ ‫ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ و ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺒﻊ اﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب دﺷﺖ‬ ‫ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي‪ -‬ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ–ﻣﺤﯿﻂ در ﮐﺸﻮر‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و در واﻗﻊ ﺷﺎﻫﺮگ اﺻﻠﯽ و ﺣﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﭼﯿﻦ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮕﯽ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻣﺪل‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ذﺧﯿﺮه‬ ‫‪ CCDM1‬ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮕﯽ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي‬ ‫ﺑﺨﺸﯽ از آب ﻣﺎزاد رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ و اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﯾﻦ‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺪﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ و ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺖ در‬ ‫ذﺧﯿﺮه در ﻓﺼﻮل ﮐﻢ آﺑﯽ و ﺧﺸﮏ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار‬ ‫ﮐﻮﺗﺎهﻣﺪت ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد را دارد )‪.(24‬‬ ‫ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺗﺮاز ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ ‪ 492‬ﻣﺘﺮ و ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖ‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﮐﻞ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺨﺎزن ‪ 660‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮنﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫در ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺿﻤﻦ اﯾﻦﮐﻪ ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖ ﻣﻔﯿﺪ و ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري‬ ‫ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ‪-‬اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺗﻮأم ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ‬ ‫در ﺻﻮرﺗﯽﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮر ﺛﻘﻠﯽ آب از آن ﺧﺎرج ﺷﻮد‬ ‫اﯾﻦ‪ ،‬درآﻣﺪ ﺑﺴﯿﺎري از ﻣﺮدم ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﺸﺎورزي‬ ‫‪ 340‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮنﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬اﯾﻦ ﻣﺨﺎزن در ﺣﺎل‬ ‫و داﻣﭙﺮوري ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺧﻮد ﺳﺒﺐ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻧﯿﺎز‬ ‫ﺣﺎﺿﺮ آب ﺷﺮب ﮐﻞ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺷﻬﺮ زاﻫﺪان را‬ ‫در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﯿﺰ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ )‪.(2‬‬ ‫‪1- Coupling Coordination Degree Model‬‬ ‫‪26‬‬ ‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ ‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ -1‬ﻣﻮﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻗﺮارﮔﯿﺮي ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪﻫﺎ در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ )‪.(2‬‬ ‫‪Figure 1. Location of wells in the Helmand catchment.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎرف آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﺷﺮب‪،‬‬ ‫ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪاي )ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺳﻨﺎد‪ ،‬ﻣﺪارك و آرﺷﯿﻮ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت‬ ‫ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺖ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺳﻄﺤﯽ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ و ﺷﺒﮑﻪﻫﺎي آﺑﯿﺎري و‬ ‫ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪ .‬آب ﺳﻄﺤﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮردﻧﻈﺮ از رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫زﻫﮑﺸﯽ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎوﻧﺖ اﻣﻮر آب و آﺑﻔﺎي اﺳﺘﺎن‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﮐﺖ‬ ‫ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و‬ ‫آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن‪ ،‬وزارت‬ ‫اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﮐﺸﺖوﮐﺎر‪ ،‬ﻣﺼﺎرف در ﺑﺨﺶ ﺷﺮب و‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﺳﺘﺎن‪،‬‬ ‫ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻂ )ﺗﺎﻻب ﻫﺎﻣﻮن(‬ ‫آﻣﺎرﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﺳﺘﺎن ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن‪،‬‬ ‫اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬اﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺸﺎور آب( ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫آب ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﺨﺶ ﺷﺮب‪ ،‬ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺣﺠﻢ آب‬ ‫ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه و ﺿﺮاﯾﺐ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ در‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﻣﺪل‪ ،‬در ﺟﺪول ‪ 1‬آورده ﺷﺪه‬ ‫ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﮐﺸﺎورزي‬ ‫اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪ .‬دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده در‬ ‫اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي ‪ 1379-1397‬از ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت‬ ‫‪27‬‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ )‪ ،(28‬ﺷﻤﺎره )‪1400 (1‬‬ ‫ﺟﺪول ‪ -1‬ﺟﺰﺋﯿﺎت ﺑﺮﺧﯽ از ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻣﻬﻢ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎ و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده در ‪.HRW – MSM‬‬ ‫‪Table 1. Details of some important values of parameters and historical sources used in HRW – MSM.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ اوﻟﯿﻪ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺒﻊ‬ ‫‪Variables‬‬ ‫‪Initial values used‬‬ ‫‪Source‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬ ‫ذﺧﯿﺮه‬ ‫‪Save‬‬ ‫‪variable‬‬ ‫ﮐﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ‬ ‫‪) 35000‬ﻧﻔﺮ(‬ ‫‪Total population‬‬ ‫‪Person‬‬ ‫دام ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ‬ ‫‪) 132344‬رأس(‬ ‫‪Heavy trap‬‬ ‫‪Head‬‬ ‫‪Fixed‬‬ ‫‪Statistics Center of Iran and‬‬ ‫‪Agricultural Jihad Statistics‬‬ ‫دام ﺳﺒﮏ‬ ‫‪) 890784‬رأس(‬ ‫‪Light trap‬‬ ‫‪Head‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ درآﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮي‬ ‫‪) 100328‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن رﯾﺎل(‬ ‫آﻣﺎرﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي‬ ‫‪Per capita income of urban households‬‬ ‫‪Million Rial‬‬ ‫‪Agricultural Jihad Statistics‬‬ ‫درآﻣﺪ ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫‪) 170794‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن رﯾﺎل(‬ ‫‪Rural per capita net household income‬‬ ‫‪Million Rial‬‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل‬ ‫‪) 8000‬ﺗﻦ(‬ ‫‪Product performance‬‬ ‫‪Ton‬‬ ‫ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ‪ 3 ،2 ،1‬و ‪4‬‬ ‫‪) 330‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ(‬ ‫‪Chah Nimeh reserves 1, 2, 3 and 4‬‬ ‫‪Million Square Meter‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﻧﯿﺎزي اب ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺷﻬﺮي در ﻫﺮ روز‬ ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﮐﺰ آﻣﺎر اﯾﺮان و آﻣﺎرﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي‬ ‫ﺷﺮﮐﺖ آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي اﺳﺘﺎن‬ ‫‪Regional Water Company of the‬‬ ‫‪province‬‬ ‫‪) 0.12‬ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در روز(‬ ‫‪The per capita need for water of the urban‬‬ ‫‪population every day‬‬ ‫‪Cubic meters per day‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﻧﯿﺎزي اب ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ در ﻫﺮ روز‬ ‫‪) 0.12‬ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در روز(‬ ‫‪Per capita need for water of rural population every day‬‬ ‫‪Cubic meters per day‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﻧﯿﺎزي آب دام ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ در ﻫﺮ روز‬ ‫‪) 0.090‬ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در روز(‬ ‫‪Per capita need for heavy livestock water every day‬‬ ‫‪Cubic meters per day‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﻧﯿﺎزي آب دام ﺳﺒﮏ در ﻫﺮ روز‬ ‫‪) 0.01‬ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در روز(‬ ‫‪Per capita need for light livestock water every day‬‬ ‫‪Cubic meters per day‬‬ ‫آﻣﺎرﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي‬ ‫‪Agricultural Jihad Statistics‬‬ ‫اﻣﮑﺎن ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ‪ ،‬ذﺧﯿﺮه‪ ،‬ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي‪ ،‬ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ و ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي‬ ‫روش ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ‪ :‬رﻓﺘﺎر ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ از ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر آنﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ داﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮏ را ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ )‪.(28 ،23‬‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺄت ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮد‪ .‬اﯾﻦ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺣﻠﻘﻪﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه و ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻤﯽ در ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ ﯾﮏ‬ ‫ﺑﺎزﺧﻮردي‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺣﺎﻟﺖ )اﻧﺒﺎره( و ﻧﺮخ )ﺟﺮﯾﺎن(‪،‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮي از زوج ﻣﻌﺎدﻻت دﯾﻔﺮاﻧﺴﯿﻞ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻪ اول )اﻏﻠﺐ‬ ‫رﻓﺘﺎرﻫﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ از ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﯿﺎن ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ و‬ ‫ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ( ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ روشﻫﺎي ‪ Runge- Kutta‬ﯾﺎ ‪Euler‬‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮﻫﺎي آنﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺄت ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮد )‪ 11‬و ‪ .(28‬در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﺣﻞ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪ ،‬ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد )‪ .(22‬ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﺪل از ﮐﻞ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﮐﻪ ﯾﮏ اﺑﺰار ﻗﺪرﺗﻤﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺟﺰ اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرﺗﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪﻃﻮر ﺗﺪرﯾﺠﯽ‬ ‫ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي‪ ،‬ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي‪ ،‬اﻧﺠﺎم‬ ‫ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ و اﺟﺰاء اﺗﺼﺎل ﺷﺪه ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ ﺷﺪه ﺗﺎ اﯾﻦﮐﻪ ﻣﺪل‬ ‫آزﻣﻮن ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه‬ ‫ﮐﺎﻣﻞ ﺷﻮد )‪ .(25 ،7‬از ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮ در زﻣﺎن ﺳﺎﺧﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎمﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار‬ ‫ﻣﺪل ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﻪﻃﻮر ﻣﮑﺮر ﻣﺪل را ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮآورد و‬ ‫‪ Vensim‬ﻧﻮﻋﯽ اﺑﺰار ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺗﺼﻮﯾﺮي اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ‬ ‫ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻗﺮار دﻫﺪ و ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ را از‬ ‫ﺑﻪﺻﻮرﺗﯽ ﺳﺎده و اﻧﻌﻄﺎفﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ ﺑﯿﺎورد )‪ 5‬و ‪.(18‬‬ ‫ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن را ﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﻣﯽﺳﺎزد‪ .‬اﯾﻦ ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮ‬ ‫‪28‬‬ ‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ ‫ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺑﯿﺎن دﯾﮕﺮ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻣﺒﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ آب و‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺶ رﯾﺎﺿﯽ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ و ﺟﺮﯾﺎن‪ :‬ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎي اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻧﺸﺎندﻫﻨﺪه ﺟﺮﯾﺎن آب ورودي ﯾﺎ ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ‬ ‫ﺷﺪه ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه‪ -‬ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻧﺨﺴﺘﯿﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ )‪.(6‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎر ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﺎرﺳﺘﺮ اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪ و از ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻫﯿﺪروﻟﯿﮑﯽ‬ ‫) ‪Stock (t )  tt  Inflow ( s ) Outflow (s ) ds  Stock (t 0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺣﺎﻟﺖ در واﺣﺪ زﻣﺎن ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ اﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه و ﺟﺮﯾﺎن )‪ :(SFD‬زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﺪل‬ ‫ﻧﺮخ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ و ﯾﺎ ﻧﺮخ ورودي و ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ‪:‬‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫) ‪dt  Inflow (t )  Outflow (t‬‬ ‫‪ HRW – MSM‬ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ﺣﻠﻘﻪﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻋﻠﯽ و ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻟﯽ آنﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪاﻧﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺳﺒﺐ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻒ‬ ‫) ‪d (Stock‬‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺗﺠﻤﻊ و ﻧﻘﺼﺎن ﺷﺪه و روﻧﺪ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻣﻮاد‬ ‫در ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ را ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﻤﻮدار دﺧﯿﺮه و ﺟﺮﯾﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ‬ ‫ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ از ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه و‬ ‫ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‪ :‬ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ‪ ،‬ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪ ،‬اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ–‬ ‫اﻟﻒ( ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ در ﺷﮑﻞﻫﺎي ‪ 2‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 6‬ﻧﺸﺎن داده‬ ‫ج( ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﺪل‬ ‫دام ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ‪ ،‬دام ﺳﺒﮏ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل‪ ،‬ﻧﺮخ‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﺑﻪﺻﻮرت ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ ﺳﻪﮔﺎﻧﻪ ذﯾﻞ اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪:‬‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي‪ ،‬ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ و ﻧﯿﺎزي آب و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ‬ ‫ب( ﺷﺮح ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻣﺪل ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ و ﭘﺎﯾﺪاري ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮدﮐﻔﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻮادﻏﺬاﯾﯽ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺷﻬﺮي و‬ ‫آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪﺳﺎزي ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎي‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در ﻧﺮخ ورودي ﯾﺎ ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ‬ ‫‪ :(HRW-MSM)1‬ﻣﺪل ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ و ﭘﺎﯾﺪاري ﺣﻮزه‬ ‫روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ و ﺣﺠﻢ ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬اﯾﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري دﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮏ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫‪Growth rate of‬‬ ‫‪Population‬‬ ‫‪Total population‬‬ ‫‪Water demand of‬‬ ‫‪rural households‬‬ ‫‪<Rural livestock‬‬ ‫>‪water demand‬‬ ‫‪Urban population‬‬ ‫‪Rural population‬‬ ‫‪Rural population‬‬ ‫‪water demand‬‬ ‫‪Net population‬‬ ‫‪added‬‬ ‫‪Water demand of‬‬ ‫‪urban households‬‬ ‫‪Population‬‬ ‫‪urbanization rate‬‬ ‫>‪<Time‬‬ ‫‪Water demand per capita‬‬ ‫‪rural population per day‬‬ ‫‪Per capita urban‬‬ ‫‪water use per day‬‬ ‫‪T‬‬ ‫‪Domestic water‬‬ ‫‪demand‬‬ ‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ -2‬ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه ‪ -‬ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪Figure 2. Stock - flow diagram of population subsystem flow.‬‬ ‫‪1- Hirmand River Watershed Management and Sustainability Model‬‬ ‫‪29‬‬ 1400 (1) ‫ ﺷﻤﺎره‬،(28) ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ‬ Urban income added Per capita disposable income of urban Growth rate of Per capita disposable income of urban The income gap index between urban and Growth rate of Per capita net income of rural Per capita net income of rural households Rural income added .‫ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ‬- ‫ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي‬- ‫ ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه‬-3 ‫ﺷﮑﻞ‬ Figure 3. Stock - flow diagram of socio - economic subsystem. Increase in large livestock Large livestock stock Growth rate of large livestock Growth rate of small livestock Increase in small livestock Per capita large livestock water use per <Time> Per capita small livestock water use per Large livestock water demand <T> Small livestock water demand Growth rate of grain yield Small livestock stock Efficiency of Irrigation Pattern0 Area of Garden Area of Crops <Time> Crops Water Requirement Grain yield increase <Domestic water demand> Grain yield Product revenue Demand of agricultural products Production per unit area Tillage Pattern Recorded Agriculture Water Demand Rural livestock water demand Per capita grain possession Garden Water Requirement1 <Grain yield> Food production <Total population> Food self – sufficiency rate Product cost <Agriculture Water Demand> Food consumption <Total population> price product Supply of agricultural products Capital Labor .‫ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮐﺸﺎورزي‬-‫ ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه‬-4 ‫ﺷﮑﻞ‬ Figure 4. Stock - flow diagram of agricultural subsystem. 30 <Tillage Pattern Recorded> ‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ ‫‪Surface water‬‬ ‫‪evaporation‬‬ ‫‪Min Storage‬‬ ‫‪Sistan Flow‬‬ ‫‪Pariyan Flow‬‬ ‫‪Total Water‬‬ ‫‪Demand‬‬ ‫‪<Domestic water‬‬ ‫>‪demand‬‬ ‫‪<Agriculture Water‬‬ ‫>‪Demand‬‬ ‫‪Water transferred‬‬ ‫‪from outside‬‬ ‫‪<Ecological water‬‬ ‫>‪demand‬‬ ‫‪Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4‬‬ ‫‪Annual mean‬‬ ‫‪self-produced water‬‬ ‫‪Water Shortage‬‬ ‫‪Domestic Shortage‬‬ ‫‪Agricultural Shortage‬‬ ‫‪Domestic Water‬‬ ‫‪Supply‬‬ ‫‪Agricultural water‬‬ ‫‪supply‬‬ ‫‪Hirmand Flow‬‬ ‫‪Surface water‬‬ ‫‪resources‬‬ ‫‪Precipitation‬‬ ‫‪Ground water‬‬ ‫‪resources‬‬ ‫‪Ecological Shortage‬‬ ‫‪Ecological water‬‬ ‫‪supply‬‬ ‫‪Total Water‬‬ ‫‪Supply‬‬ ‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ -5‬ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه ‪ -‬ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب‪.‬‬ ‫‪Figure 5. Stock - flow diagram of water supply and supply subsystem.‬‬ ‫‪Ecological water‬‬ ‫‪demand‬‬ ‫‪Environment flow‬‬ ‫‪Monthly Ecological‬‬ ‫‪water demand‬‬ ‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ -6‬ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه ‪ -‬ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ‪.‬‬ ‫‪Figure 6. Stock - flow diagram of ecosystem subsystem.‬‬ ‫در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ‪ ،‬اﺑﺘﺪا ﻣﺪل ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﯽ ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﺷﺪه‬ ‫ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﻔﯿﺪ ﺑﻮدن ﯾﮏ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺑﺒﯿﻨﯿﻢ آﯾﺎ ﭼﯿﺰﻫﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ‬ ‫ﮐﻪ در واﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‪ ،‬در ﻣﺪل وﺟﻮد دارﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ‪ 5‬زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ‪ ،‬ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪،‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻧﮑﺘﻪ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ اﻫﯿﻤﺖ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻫﯿﭻ وﻗﺖ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب‪ ،‬اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي‪ -‬اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و‬ ‫ﻧﻤﯽﺗﻮان ادﻋﺎ ﮐﺮد ﮐﻪ ﯾﮏ ﻣﺪل ﺑﻄﻮر ﮐﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎ واﻗﻌﯿﺖ‬ ‫زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﮔﺴﺘﺮش داده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺖ دارد وﻣﻌﺘﺒﺮ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬در ﻋﻮض ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺳﻌﯽ ﺷﻮد‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ﻋﻠﯽ و ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻟﯽ زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﮐﻪ در ﺻﻮرت اﻣﮑﺎن ﺑﻪ واﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ذﺧﯿﺮه‪ -‬ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روشﻫﺎي رﺳﻤﯽ و‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎدﻻت ﺣﺎﮐﻢ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ وارد ﻣﺪل ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه و ﻣﺪل‬ ‫ﻏﯿﺮرﺳﻤﯽ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮد )‪ .(15‬از راﯾﺞﺗﺮﯾﻦ‬ ‫ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬در آﺧﺮ اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﭼﻮن‬ ‫آزﻣﻮنﻫﺎي اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت‬ ‫راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت آب )ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪهﺷﺪه )آزﻣﻮن ﺗﮑﺮار رﻓﺘﺎر( و آزﻣﻮن ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ‬ ‫ﻣﯿﺰان ‪ (%50‬اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﺪي ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻧﮑﺘﻪ ﻻزم اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ درﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن و ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل‪ :‬ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺸﯽ از‬ ‫اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎنﭘﺬﯾﺮي از ﺻﺤﺖ ﻣﺪل ﺑﻪ ﻧﮕﺎه ﻣﺪلﺳﺎز ﻃﺒﻖ ﻣﺪ‬ ‫ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﯽ دارد و ﺑﻪ ﻫﺪفﻫﺎي ﻣﺪلﺳﺎز ارﺗﺒﺎط دارد‪.‬‬ ‫واﻗﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎ ﯾﺎ ﺗﺼﻮر و ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﻣﺎ از ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪31‬‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ )‪ ،(28‬ﺷﻤﺎره )‪1400 (1‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﻧﺶ‪ -‬ﺳﺎﺗﮑﻠﯿﻒ ﻧﯿﺰ از راﺑﻄﻪ زﯾﺮ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ‬ ‫در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از آزﻣﻮن ﺗﮑﺮار رﻓﺘﺎر اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه‬ ‫اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﯽآﯾﺪ ﮐﻪ داﻣﻨﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات آن از ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺑﯿﻨﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﺗﺎ ‪ 1‬را‬ ‫آزﻣﻮن ﺗﮑﺮار رﻓﺘﺎر‪ :‬ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺪل از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‪ .‬ﻫﺮﭼﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﺑﻪ ‪ 1‬ﻧﺰدﯾﮏﺗﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل دﻗﯿﻖﺗﺮ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد‪ .‬ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺑﺰرگﺗﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ دادهﻫﺎي ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ دادهﻫﺎي‬ ‫از ‪ 0/5‬ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻗﺎﺑﻞﻗﺒﻮل ﻣﺪل ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﺷﺪه ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‪ .‬در آزﻣﻮن روﻧﺪ‬ ‫دادهﻫﺎي ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه ﺑﺎ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه‬ ‫ﺷﺪه ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺖ داده ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ اﯾﻦﮐﻪ ﻫﺮ ﯾﮏ از‬ ‫)‪(2‬‬ ‫اﺑﺰارﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري در راﺳﺘﺎي ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ دادهﻫﺎي ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ و‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪﺷﺪه داراي ﻣﺤﺎﺳﻦ و ﻣﻌﺎﯾﺒﯽ در ﺑﺮرﺳﯽﻫﺎي‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ‪ ،R2‬ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﻧﺶ‪ -‬ﺳﺎﺗﮑﻠﯿﻒ و‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪار ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺗﯽ و ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪاﺗﯽ‬ ‫ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺎي ﺟﺬر ﻣﯿﺎﻧﯿﮕﻦ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت )‪ (RMSE‬ﺑﺮاي ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ ﻣﺪل اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﺷﻮد )‪.(4‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺪل‪ ،‬ﮐﻞ ﺳﺮي زﻣﺎﻧﯽ‬ ‫)‪(3‬‬ ‫ﺑﻪ دو ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ داده ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪ .‬ﺑﺨﺶ اول‪ ،‬ﺷﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫دادهﻫﺎي ‪ 1379-1389‬ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺪل ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮهﺳﺎزي‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪار‬ ‫اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ‪ RMSE‬ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان‬ ‫ﺷﺶ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ذﺧﯿﺮه ﺑﺮاي اﻧﺠﺎم ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن و‬ ‫دﻗﺖ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻓﻮق در ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ‬ ‫اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ‪ ،‬ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻞ‪ ،‬دام ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ‪ ،‬دام‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺖ )ﻧﺎ ارﯾﺒﯽ( ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪ اﻣﮑﺎن ﮐﻮﭼﮏ و ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ‬ ‫ﺳﺒﮏ‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل‪ ،‬ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺻﻔﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺷﻬﺮي و ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ‬ ‫دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺧﺎﻧﻮار روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ و ﺑﺤﺚ‬ ‫ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻣﯿﺎن‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن‪ :‬در ﺟﺪول ‪ 2‬ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ‬ ‫دو دﺳﺘﻪ داده ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬اﯾﻦ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ در واﻗﻊ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ‬ ‫ﺑﯿﻦ دادهﻫﺎي ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه و ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﺷﺪه ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﯽ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻈﺮ در آﯾﻨﺪه را ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻣﺪل‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ از ‪ 70‬درﺻﺪ اﺳﺖ و ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ‬ ‫رﯾﺎﺿﯽ ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﺷﺪه ﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺑﺮ دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺟﻮد‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ در ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﻧﺶ‪ -‬ﺳﺎﺗﮑﻠﯿﻒ )‪ (NSE‬ﻣﻘﺪار آن‬ ‫اﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﯿﺎن ﻣﯽدارد و ﺑﺎ راﺑﻄﻪ زﯾﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ از ‪ 0/5‬و ﻫﻢﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار ﺧﻄﺎي ﺟﺬر ﻣﯿﺎﻧﯿﮕﻦ‬ ‫اﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺻﻔﺮ و ﯾﮏ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫)‪(1‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪yi‬‬ ‫ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽﺷﺪه ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻈﺮ از دادهﻫﺎي‬ ‫‪ 1390-1397‬ﺑﺮاي اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‪.‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪1 n‬‬ ‫‪ 2‬‬ ‫‪RMSE=    y i  y i  ‬‬ ‫‪ n i 1‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫ﮐﻪ در آن‪ y i ،‬ﻣﻘﺪار اﻧﺪازهﮔﯿﺮي ﺷﺪه و‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽﺷﻮد و ﯾﮏ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ داده دﯾﮕﺮ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫) ‪ ( y m ,i  y m ,i )  ( y s ,i  y s ,i‬‬ ‫‪ ( y s ,i  y s ,i‬‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺎﻧﮕﺮ داده ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪاﺗﯽ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ y m ,i .‬و ‪y s ,i‬‬ ‫دادهﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪﺷﺪه ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ ﺷﺪه‪ ،‬ﺳﭙﺲ ﺗﺴﺖ ﺧﻄﺎ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪)2‬‬ ‫‪ ( y m ,i  y s ,i‬‬ ‫‪NSE  1 ‬‬ ‫ﮐﻪ در آنﻫﺎ‪ y m ,i ،‬ﻣﻘﺪار داده ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺗﯽ و ‪y s ,i‬‬ ‫آﻣﺎري اﺳﺖ‪ ،‬در اﯾﻦ آزﻣﻮن اﺑﺘﺪا دادهﻫﺎي ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ و‬ ‫‪[  y m ,i  y m ,i ( y s ,i  y s ,i )]2‬‬ ‫‪)2‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت )‪ (RMSE‬ﮐﻢﺗﺮ از ‪ 0/3‬اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﺧﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﺮاي اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل و ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽﻫﺎي‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل اراﺋﻪ ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪32‬‬ ‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ ‫دارد )ﺟﺪول ‪ .(2‬ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ‪ ،‬ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ )‪(R2‬‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ‪ :‬اﮐﺜﺮ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻌﯿﺎر‬ ‫ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ از ‪ 0/80‬ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﺶ‪ -‬ﺳﺎﺗﮑﻠﯿﻒ )‪ (NSE‬ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ از ‪ 0/5‬و ﺧﻄﺎي ﺟﺬر‬ ‫ﻣﯿﺎﻧﯿﮕﻦ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت )‪ (RMSE‬ﻋﺪدي ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻔﺮ‬ ‫ﺟﺪول ‪ -2‬آزﻣﻮنﻫﺎي ﻣﺪل ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري‪.‬‬ ‫‪Table 2. Statistical parameters model tests.‬‬ ‫ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن‬ ‫‪Calibration‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫‪Variables‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎل‬ ‫اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ‬ ‫‪Validation‬‬ ‫‪NSE‬‬ ‫)‪(RMSE‬‬ ‫‪NSE‬‬ ‫)‪(RMSE‬‬ ‫‪R2‬‬ ‫‪R2‬‬ ‫‪1380‬‬ ‫‪1382‬‬ ‫‪1384‬‬ ‫‪1386‬‬ ‫‪1388‬‬ ‫‪1379‬‬‫‪1390‬‬ ‫‪1391‬‬ ‫‪1393‬‬ ‫‪1395‬‬ ‫‪1397‬‬ ‫‪1391‬‬‫‪1397‬‬ ‫‪Total population‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.87‬‬ ‫)‪(0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫)‪(0.24‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.98‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫)‪(0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.91‬‬ ‫‪Heavy trap‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫)‪(0.24‬‬ ‫‪0.84‬‬ ‫)‪(0.26‬‬ ‫‪0.89‬‬ ‫)‪(0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫)‪(0.14‬‬ ‫‪0.83‬‬ ‫)‪(0.26‬‬ ‫‪0.82‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.98‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.83‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬ ‫)‪(0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.79‬‬ ‫)‪(0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.95‬‬ ‫)‪(0.19‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫)‪(0.07‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.46‬‬ ‫)‪(0.19‬‬ ‫‪0.79‬‬ ‫)‪(0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.92‬‬ ‫‪Product performance‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.89‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫)‪(0.24‬‬ ‫‪0.81‬‬ ‫)‪(0.26‬‬ ‫‪0.80‬‬ ‫)‪(0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.84‬‬ ‫)‪(0.26‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫‪Chah Nimeh reserves‬‬ ‫‪0.57‬‬ ‫)‪(0.21‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.72‬‬ ‫)‪(0.24‬‬ ‫‪0.80‬‬ ‫)‪(0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫)‪(0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.82‬‬ ‫‪0.56‬‬ ‫)‪(0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.88‬‬ ‫)‪(0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.81‬‬ ‫)‪(0.26‬‬ ‫‪0.77‬‬ ‫)‪(0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.84‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.78‬‬ ‫)‪(0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫‪0.84‬‬ ‫)‪(0.26‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.92‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.92‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫)‪(0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.92‬‬ ‫)‪(0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫)‪(0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.85‬‬ ‫‪Year‬‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻞ‬ ‫دام ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ‬ ‫دام ﺳﺒﮏ‬ ‫‪Light trap‬‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل‬ ‫ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺷﻬﺮي‬ ‫‪Urban household per‬‬ ‫‪capita wage‬‬ ‫ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺧﺎﻧﻮار روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫‪Rural per capita wage‬‬ ‫ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﻣﻮرد ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد‪ .‬ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس‪،‬‬ ‫ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ در ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري‬ ‫ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮان از راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي ﻗﺎﺑﻞ اﺟﺮا ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف‬ ‫از ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ در ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‪ :‬ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﺼﺮف‪ ،‬ﺑﺮاي رﺳﺎﻧﺪن وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺪل ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‪ ،‬در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﯾﮏ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﺎﺑﻞﻗﺒﻮل و ﻣﻄﻤﺌﻦ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻧﻤﻮد‪ .‬ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫آﺗﯽ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻧﯿﺎزي آب از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ‬ ‫از روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‬ ‫ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ورودي ﺑﻪ ﻣﺨﺎزن در‬ ‫را در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ و اﺛﺮات ﻃﻮﻻﻧﯽﻣﺪت آنﻫﺎ را‬ ‫اﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﮐﻤﺒﻮدﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺪت ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻗﺮار داد و ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮات‬ ‫اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه‪ ،‬ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ را اﺗﺨﺎذ ﮐﺮد‪.‬‬ ‫آﺑﯽ از ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ در ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي‬ ‫آﯾﻨﺪه ﻏﯿﺮﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪ .‬در اﯾﻦ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ‪،‬‬ ‫‪33‬‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ )‪ ،(28‬ﺷﻤﺎره )‪1400 (1‬‬ ‫در اﯾﻦ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ از ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ‪ ،‬ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺎندﻫﻨﺪه اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ‪ 11/639‬درﺻﺪي ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل‬ ‫در ﻣﺪل ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي‬ ‫ﭘﺎﯾﻪ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ ‪32/162‬‬ ‫درﺻﺪي ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ‪ 1379‬داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪ .‬در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮان ﺑﺎ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل و ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ در واﺣﺪ ﺳﻄﺢ روﻧﺪي رو‬ ‫اﺻﻼح اﻟﮕﻮي ﻣﺼﺮف در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ از ﺗﺸﺪﯾﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ را ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ‪ ،‬از ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﺧﻮدﮐﻔﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮي ﻧﻤﻮد‪ .‬ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي و ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ‬ ‫ﻣﻮادﻏﺬاﯾﯽ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﭘﺎﯾﻪ‪ 39/037 ،‬درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﺻﻞ در اداﻣﻪ ﺗﺸﺮﯾﺢ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬اﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻮادﻏﺬاﯾﯽ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ‪ :(BAU)1‬ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﯾﮏ‪ ،‬اداﻣﻪ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﯾﺪ از ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺼﺮف وارد ﺷﻮد و‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در ﺣﻮزه رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﯾﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن در آﯾﻨﺪه از ﻧﺎاﻣﻨﯽ ﻏﺬاﯾﯽ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻨﺎﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﮔﺮ ﻫﯿﭻ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ اﻧﺠﺎم ﻧﮕﯿﺮد‪ ،‬از‬ ‫ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﻮاد ﻏﺬاﯾﯽ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺎظ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺘﯽ‪ ،‬ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪ ،‬اﻗﺘﺼﺎد و اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ‪ ،‬ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ‬ ‫از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﻣﺸﮑﻼت ﻧﮕﺮان ﮐﻨﻨﺪه در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺎﻗﯽ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ‬ ‫و ﻧﯿﺎز آﺑﯽ و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ در آﯾﻨﺪه اﯾﻦ ﺣﻮزه ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫وﺿﻌﯿﺘﯽ را ﺑﻪدﻧﺒﺎل ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي‬ ‫در زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ و ﻧﯿﺎز آب‪ ،‬ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب ﻧﺴﺒﺖ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ آﯾﻨﺪه ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ‪ BAU‬در ﺟﺪول ‪ 3‬ﻧﺸﺎن‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﭘﺎﯾﻪ از ‪ 433/562‬ﺑﻪ ‪ 582/527‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن‬ ‫داده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪ .‬در زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ‪ ،‬ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در ﺳﺎل ‪ 1410‬رﺳﯿﺪه ‪ .‬در ﺻﺪ رﺷﺪ‬ ‫در ﺳﺎل ‪ 1410‬ﺑﻪ ‪ 921418‬ﻧﻔﺮ رﺳﯿﺪه اﺳﺖ و رﺷﺪ‬ ‫اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ‪ 34/358 ،‬ﺑﺮاﺑﺮي ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ و از ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ‪ 116/886‬درﺻﺪ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ از ﺳﺎل ‪1379‬‬ ‫اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ رﺷﺪ ‪ 12/290‬ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﻧﯿﺎز آب روﺑﻪرو ﺧﻮاﻫﯿﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي‪ -‬اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ در ﺳﺎل ‪1410‬‬ ‫ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ و ﻧﯿﺎز آب در ﺳﺎل ‪ 1410‬ﻧﺴﺒﺖ‬ ‫درآﻣﺪ ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺷﻬﺮي و روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﻪ ‪ 494/57‬و‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ‪ 2/011‬درﺻﺪي رو ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ‬ ‫‪ 449/59‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن رﯾﺎل ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ‪ ،‬ﮐﻪ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﭘﺎﯾﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺧﻮاﻫﯿﻢ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬در زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫درﺻﺪ رﺷﺪي ﻣﻌﺎدل ‪ 302/580‬و ‪ 116/921‬را دارد‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﯿﺎز ‪ 59/991‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮنﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ و ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ‪5/095‬‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺷﮑﺎف درآﻣﺪي ﺑﯿﻦ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺷﻬﺮي و‬ ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮنﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در ﺳﺎل ‪ 1410‬ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن ﺑﺎ‬ ‫روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ از ‪ 7/11‬ﺑﻪ ‪ 13/195‬در ﺳﺎل ‪ 1410‬اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ‬ ‫ﮐﻤﺒﻮدي ﻣﻌﺎدل ‪ 8/503‬درﺻﺪ ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ درﺻﺪ رﺷﺪ ‪ 85/584‬ﺑﺮاﺑﺮي از‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ رﻓﺘﺎر ﻧﯿﺎز ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب در ﺷﮑﻞ ‪،7‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎل ‪ 1379‬ﺑﻪ ‪ 1410‬را داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬اﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﺼﺮف آب ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺎندﻫﻨﺪه اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ روزاﻓﺰون ﺷﮑﺎف درآﻣﺪي ﻣﯿﺎن‬ ‫و روﻧﺪ ﻧﯿﺎز آب ﺷﺮب و ﻧﯿﺎز آب زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎً‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻧﻮار روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ و ﺷﻬﺮي و ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻋﻤﺪه دﻻﯾﻞ آن‬ ‫ﺻﺎف اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻧﺒﻮد آب ﮐﺎﻓﯽ و ﻋﺪم ﮐﺸﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎي‬ ‫روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫در زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪ ،‬ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ در ﺳﺎل‬ ‫‪ 1410‬ﺑﻪ ‪ 138012‬ﻫﮑﺘﺎر ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ‪ ،‬اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار‬ ‫‪1- Business as usual‬‬ ‫‪34‬‬ ‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ .BAU ‫ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﮐﻠﯿﺪي در ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ‬-3 ‫ﺟﺪول‬ (%) ‫رﺷﺪ‬ Growth 1410 Table 3. Simulation values of key variables in the BAU scenario. ‫واﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ‬ 1404 1400 1379 116.886 921418 793197 717787 424840 116.890 322494 277615 251222 148690 116.888 598920 515577 466561 276143 302.580 494.57 377.72 315.6 122.85 116.921 449.59 387.01 350.2 207.26 unit Variables ‫ﻧﻔﺮ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻞ‬ Person Total population ‫ﻧﻔﺮ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺷﻬﺮي‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ‬ Urban population population ‫ﻧﻔﺮ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ‬ Person Rural population ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن رﯾﺎل‬ ‫ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺷﻬﺮي‬ Million Rials Per capita urban wage ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن رﯾﺎل‬ ‫ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ‬ ‫ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ‬-‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي‬ Million Rials Rural per capita wages Socio-economic ‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺷﮑﺎف درآﻣﺪي‬ 13.195 11.711 10.813 7.113 % 11.639 138012 138012 138012 123624 ‫ﻫﮑﺘﺎر‬ ‫ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ‬ Hectares Area under cultivation 32.162 127399 120703 116437 96396 ‫ﺗﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل‬ Ton Product performance -39.037 8.295 9.130 9.733 13.608 1659.22 1826.17 1946.68 2722.81 18.393 1107.65 1049.43 1012.34 935.57 34.358 582.527 516.491 547.06 433.562 12.390 1515.93 1510.25 1506.9 1350.01 -2.011 -968.83 -993.7 -957.33 -970.33 5.095 5.095 5.095 5.095 0 0.00 59.991 59.991 59.991 59.991 -8.503 -54.896 -54.896 -54.896 -5.991 Subsystem Person 85.584 -39.062 ‫زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ‬ % ‫ﻧﻔﺮ‬/‫ﮐﯿﻠﻮﮔﺮم‬ Income gap index ‫ﻧﺮخ ﺧﻮدﮐﻔﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻮاد ﻏﺬاﯾﯽ‬ Food self-sufficiency rate ‫ﮐﺸﺎورزي‬ Agriculture ‫ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل‬ Kg / person Per capita product performance ‫ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ‬/‫ﮐﯿﻠﻮﮔﺮم‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ در واﺣﺪ ﺳﻄﺢ‬ Kg / area under cultivation Production per unit area ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب‬ Million Square Meter Water supply ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ‬ ‫ﻧﯿﺎز آب‬ Million Square Meter Water demand ‫ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ و ﻧﯿﺎز آب‬ Water supply and demand ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ‬ ‫ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب‬ Million Square Meter water shortage ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ‬ Million Square Meter Environmental security ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ‬ ‫ﻧﯿﺎز زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ‬ ‫زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ‬ Million Square Meter Environmental demand Environmental ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ‬ ‫ﮐﻤﺒﻮد زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ‬ Million Square Meter Lack of environmental .‫ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‬1379 ‫ ﺗﺎ ﺳﺎل‬1410 ‫ رﺷﺪ از ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽﺷﺪه در ﺳﺎل‬:‫ﺗﻮﺟﻪ‬ 35 ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ )‪ ،(28‬ﺷﻤﺎره )‪1400 (1‬‬ ‫‪WATER USE‬‬ ‫‪200‬‬ ‫‪150‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪384‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪288‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪193‬‬ ‫‪HRW - MSM‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪2 3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪Agriculture Water Demand : BAU‬‬ ‫‪Domestic water demand : BAU‬‬ ‫‪Ecological water demand : BAU‬‬ ‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ -7‬رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي آب ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ‪.BAU‬‬ ‫‪Figure 7. Variable behavior of water needs under BAU scenario.‬‬ ‫اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار ‪ 195/96‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ‬ ‫راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري ‪ 70‬درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪:‬‬ ‫ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ و ‪ 0/04‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ‬ ‫راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري را ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ آﺑﯿﺎري ﻣﺪرن )ﺗﺤﺖ‬ ‫زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‪ .‬ﻫﻤﺎنﻃﻮر ﮐﻪ در ﺷﮑﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺸﺎر ﻗﻄﺮهاي( در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺑﻪ ‪ 70‬درﺻﺪ‬ ‫‪ 8‬ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد اﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ اول‬ ‫در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ داد )وزارت ﻧﯿﺮو‪.(1397 ،‬‬ ‫رﺷﺪ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮي داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ راﻧﺪﻣﺎن‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه در اﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻣﺪل‬ ‫آﺑﯿﺎري ﺑﺮ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب اﯾﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ و ﻫﻢﭼﻨﯿﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ داﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮏ )‪ ،(SDM‬در زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮐﺸﺎورزي‬ ‫ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد در ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﺛﺮﮔﺬار اﺳﺖ‪ .‬در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ‬ ‫ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ و ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﮐﺸﺎورزي در‬ ‫ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﻮﭼﮑﯽ از اراﺿﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي ‪ 1404 ،1400‬و ‪1410‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ‪ 19596‬ﻫﮑﺘﺎر‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي آﺑﯿﺎري ﻣﺪرن آﺑﯿﺎري ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد‪ .‬اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ‬ ‫و ‪ 67824‬ﻫﺰار ﺗﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺮهوري ﻣﺼﺮف ﻧﯿﺎزﻣﻨﺪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي و ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ در واﺣﺪ ﺳﻄﺢ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي ‪ 1404 ،1400‬و‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﺸﻮﯾﻘﯽ و‬ ‫‪ 1410‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺪار ‪ 173/71 ،167/56‬و ‪ 183/32‬ﮐﯿﻠﻮﮔﺮم‬ ‫ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺘﯽ از ﻃﺮحﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ ﻣﺼﺮف آب ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ در‬ ‫در ﻫﮑﺘﺎر اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ راﻧﺪﻣﺎن ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار واﻗﻊ ﮔﺮدد‪.‬‬ ‫در زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ‪ 196‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ ﮐﻪ از‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ Graph for Tillage Pattern Recorded Graph for Production per unit area 200 40,000 150 30,000 1 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10,000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20,000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 97 193 Time (Month) Production per unit area : BAU 1 Production per unit area : scenario2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 288 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 97 Graph for Total Water Demand 165 600,000 1 95 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 60 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 193 Time (Month) 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 288 1 2 2 1 400,000 1 1 2 1 2 384 1 2 1 2 1 ha ha 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 200,000 2 2 2 1 1 2 Graph for Supply of agricultural products 800,000 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 Tillage Pattern Recorded : BAU 1 Tillage Pattern Recorded : scenario2 200 130 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 kg/ha kg/ha 1 2 2 2 0 384 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 0 1 97 193 Time (Month) Total Water Demand : BAU Total Water Demand : scenario2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 288 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 384 1 2 1 2 193 Time (Month) Supply of agricultural products : BAU 1 Supply of agricultural products : scenario2 MCM MCM 1 2 97 1 1 2 1 2 288 1 2 1 2 1 2 384 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 Ton Ton Graph for Agriculture Water Demand Graph for Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4 200 600 500 160 1 400 2 1 300 2 12 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 12 1 2 1 2 120 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 12 1 2 1 1 1 80 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 200 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 40 1 97 "Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4" : BAU 1 "Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4" : scenario2 193 Time (Month) 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 288 1 2 1 2 1 2 384 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 MCM MCM 97 Agriculture Water Demand : BAU Agriculture Water Demand : scenario2 37 193 Time (Month) 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 288 1 2 1 2 1 2 384 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 MCM MCM ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ )‪ ،(28‬ﺷﻤﺎره )‪1400 (1‬‬ ‫‪Graph for Agricultural Shortage‬‬ ‫‪Graph for Water Shortage‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪-50‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2 1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪-100‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪-50‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪-100‬‬ ‫‪-150‬‬ ‫‪-150‬‬ ‫‪-200‬‬ ‫‪384‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪288‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪193‬‬ ‫)‪Time (Month‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪-200‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪384‬‬ ‫‪Water Shortage : BAU‬‬ ‫‪Water Shortage : scenario2‬‬ ‫‪288‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪193‬‬ ‫)‪Time (Month‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪Agricultural Shortage : BAU‬‬ ‫‪Agricultural Shortage : scenario2‬‬ ‫‪Graph for Ecological Shortage‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-1.5‬‬ ‫‪-3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1 2‬‬ ‫‪1 2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪-4.5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪-6‬‬ ‫‪384‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪288‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪193‬‬ ‫)‪Time (Month‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪Ecological Shortage : BAU‬‬ ‫‪Ecological Shortage : scenario2‬‬ ‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ -8‬رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻧﯿﺎز آب‪ ،‬ﻧﯿﺎز ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪ ،‬ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ‪ ،‬ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب‪ ،‬ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﮐﺸﺎورزي و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ در ‪.scenario 2‬‬ ‫‪Figure 8. Behavior of variables of water requirement, agricultural requirement, semi-well reserves, water‬‬ ‫‪scarcity, agricultural scarcity and environment in scenario 2.‬‬ ‫ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب ﮐﻞ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎ ‪ 1404 ،1400‬و ‪1410‬‬ ‫ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت آب )ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ‪ :(%50‬اﯾﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﻪﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ‪ 1/89 ،1/9‬و ‪ 1/9‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ و ﮐﻤﺒﻮد‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ‪ 50‬درﺻﺪي ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ از ﻣﯿﺰان اﺗﻼف‬ ‫آب در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ‪ 1/88 ،1/89‬و ‪1/9‬‬ ‫آب ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮي ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ اﻋﻤﺎل ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان‬ ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ‬ ‫‪ 50‬درﺻﺪ از ﺳﻄﺢ آبﻫﺎي آزاد ﺳﺒﺐ اﺛﺮﮔﺬاري ﺑﺮ‬ ‫اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ از ﺳﻄﺢ آبﻫﺎي آزاد ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب‪ ،‬ذﺧﺎﯾﺮﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ‪ ،‬ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب و‬ ‫ﺑﻪ درﺟﻪ ﺣﺮارت ﺑﺎﻻ در ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﮐﺸﺎورزي در زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻤﯽ و ﻣﺪرن ﺟﻬﺖ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﺎ درﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد ﺑﻪﻃﻮريﮐﻪ در ﻣﯿﺰان ﺣﺠﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ آب در‬ ‫ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ و ﺳﻄﺢ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ آب ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي ‪ 1404 ،1400‬و ‪ 1410‬آب ﺑﻪﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ‪،1/89‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و اﻣﮑﺎنﺳﻨﺠﯽ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و‬ ‫‪ 1/883‬و ‪ 1/913‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﻻب ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ ﻫﺎﻣﻮن ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽﺷﻮد‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﯿﺰان ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ ‪ 0/27‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در‬ ‫ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي ﻣﺬﮐﻮر اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬از ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﻣﻘﺪار‬ ‫‪38‬‬ ‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ ‫‪Graph for Total Water Supply‬‬ ‫‪Graph for Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4‬‬ ‫‪200‬‬ ‫‪600‬‬ ‫‪150‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪384‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪288‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪"Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4" : BAU 1‬‬ ‫‪"Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4" : scenario4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪-100‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪-50‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪-50‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪-100‬‬ ‫‪-150‬‬ ‫‪-150‬‬ ‫‪-200‬‬ ‫‪384‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪288‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪193‬‬ ‫)‪Time (Month‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪300‬‬ ‫‪Graph for Agricultural Shortage‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪384‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪288‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪193‬‬ ‫)‪Time (Month‬‬ ‫‪Graph for Water Shortage‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪200‬‬ ‫‪Total Water Supply : BAU 1‬‬ ‫‪Total Water Supply : scenario4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪400‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪193‬‬ ‫)‪Time (Month‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪-200‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪384‬‬ ‫‪Water Shortage : BAU‬‬ ‫‪Water Shortage : scenario4‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪MCM‬‬ ‫‪288‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪193‬‬ ‫)‪Time (Month‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪Agricultural Shortage : BAU‬‬ ‫‪Agricultural Shortage : scenario4‬‬ ‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ -9‬رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب‪ ،‬ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ‪ ،‬ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب و ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﮐﺸﺎورزي در ‪.Scenario 4‬‬ ‫‪Figure 9. Behavior of water supply variables, semi-well reserves, water scarcity and agricultural scarcity in‬‬ ‫‪Scenario 4.‬‬ ‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي‬ ‫در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﻞ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ در‬ ‫ﺳﺎل ‪ 1410‬از ‪ 1350/01‬ﺑﻪ ‪ 1515/93‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن‬ ‫زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ‪ ،‬ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪ ،‬اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ وﺟﻮد ﮐﺎﻫﺶ‬ ‫اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻏﯿﺮﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ‬ ‫ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﻟﯽ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ‬ ‫در ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻫﺎ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﺷﺮب ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﮔﺴﺘﺮش داده ﺷﺪ‪ .‬در اﯾﻦ روﯾﮑﺮد‪ ،‬رواﺑﻂ و ﺑﺎزﺧﻮرد‬ ‫ﺑﻮد‪ .‬ﺑﻪﻋﻠﺖ اﻓﺖ ﻗﺎﺑﻞﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﺗﺮاز آب ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪﻫﺎ در‬ ‫ﻣﯿﺎن ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻤﻮدار‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻪﻋﻠﺖ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‪ ،‬اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺ‬ ‫ذﺧﯿﺮه و ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﺑﯿﺎن ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺪل ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫در ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﯿﺎز ﺷﺮب داده‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از آزﻣﻮن ﺗﮑﺮار رﻓﺘﺎر ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن و‬ ‫ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه از آزﻣﻮن ﻧﺸﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮفﮐﻨﻨﺪه در ﻃﯽ ﻣﺎهﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫داد ﮐﻪ ﻣﺪل ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه‪ ،‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ و رﻓﺘﺎر ﻗﺎﺑﻞﻗﺒﻮل ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪات واﻗﻌﯽ داده اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫در ﺣﺪود ‪ 80‬درﺻﺪ ﮐﻞ ﮐﻤﺒﻮدﻫﺎ را ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﻣﺮداﻧﯽ و‬ ‫ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﮐﺸﺎورزي‪ ،‬ﺷﺮب و ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ در‬ ‫ﻣﺎرﯾﻨﻮ )‪ ،(2009‬ﮐﻮﯾﯿﻦ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪ ،(2011‬داﯾﯽ و‬ ‫‪39‬‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ )‪ ،(28‬ﺷﻤﺎره )‪1400 (1‬‬ ‫ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪ ،(2013‬ﺣﺴﯿﻨﯽ و ﺑﺎﻗﺮي )‪،(2014‬‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪه‪ ،‬ﺷﺎﻣﻞ راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري‬ ‫رﺣﯿﻤﯽﺧﻮب و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪ ،(2016‬ﻣﻬﺮآذر و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ ‫‪ 70‬درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت‬ ‫)‪ ،(2017‬ﭘﯿﺶﺑﻬﺎر و رﺣﯿﻤﯽ )‪ ،(2018‬اﯾﮑﺴﻮ و‬ ‫آب )ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ‪ (%50‬در ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪ ،(2017‬ﮐﻮﺗﯿﺮ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪ ،(2017‬ژاﻧﮓ و‬ ‫ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه‬ ‫ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪ ،(2017‬ﭘﻠﻮﭼﯿﻨﻮﺗﺎ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪،(2018‬‬ ‫ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد ﮐﻪ ﻫﺮ ﯾﮏ از اﯾﻦ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ‬ ‫ژاﻧﮓ و ﺷﺎﺋﻮ )‪ (2018‬و ﺳﻮﻧﮏ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )‪،(2018‬‬ ‫ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد وﻟﯽ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ‬ ‫)‪ 26‬و ‪ (27‬ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري و‬ ‫در ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي اول )راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري ‪ 70‬درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﺑﻬﺮهوري‬ ‫ﮐﺸﺎورزي( ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ‪ .‬در ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ اول‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺪار‬ ‫آب‪ ،‬ﻣﺆﺛﺮﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﺑﺰار ﺑﺮاي ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺖ از ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﺮﯾﻊ‬ ‫ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﮐﻠﯽ در ﺳﺎل ‪ 1410‬ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ‪196‬‬ ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ‪ .‬در ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ دوم‪،‬‬ ‫اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس‪ ،‬اراﺋﻪ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ در‬ ‫ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ‪ 1/9‬ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ‬ ‫راﺳﺘﺎي ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت آب در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و در‬ ‫اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ راﻧﺪﻣﺎن ﻧﯿﺰ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺧﻮﺑﯽ را در ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﮐﻤﺒﻮدﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب در اﯾﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ‪ ،‬اﻫﻤﯿﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺎن داده اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮي ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ اداﻣﻪ روﻧﺪ ﻣﺼﺮف ﻓﻌﻠﯽ و‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮ و ﺗﺸﮑﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﯾﻦوﺳﯿﻠﻪ ﻧﻮﯾﺴﻨﺪﮔﺎن از داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و‬ ‫اﺛﺮات ﺟﺒﺮانﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮي در ﭘﯽ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ‪ .‬در‬ ‫ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﻪ اﻣﮑﺎﻧﺎت ﻻزم ﺑﺮاي اﻧﺠﺎم اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ را‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺗﺒﻊ آن اداﻣﻪ ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺑﺎ ﻫﻤﯿﻦ روﻧﺪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﮐﺮد ﮐﻤﺎل ﺗﺸﮑﺮ و ﺳﭙﺎس را دارﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫اﯾﻦ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي ﻣﺼﺮف ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‪ ،‬رﻋﺎﯾﺖ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺣﺪي و ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮓﺳﺎزي ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ‬ ‫دادهﻫﺎ و اﻃﻼﻋﺎت‬ ‫دادهﻫﺎ و اﻃﻼﻋﺎت اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ از رﺳﺎﻟﻪ دﮐﺘﺮي‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﻋﺪم اﺳﺮاف ﺟﺰو ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪي در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ و ﯾﮑﯽ از اﺳﺎﺳﯽ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭘﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﯾﺴﻨﺪه اول ﮐﻪ در داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن در‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮف ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي ‪ 1399 -1397‬اﺟﺮا ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي روﯾﺎروﯾﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ و ﺑﺎزﻧﮕﺮي در‬ ‫ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎرف ﻣﺨﺎزن ﺑﺎﯾﺪ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﭘﯿﺪا ﮐﺮد‪ .‬ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ‬ ‫رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﺪل ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ ﻧﮕﺮش‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺎرض ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ‬ ‫در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﻌﺎرض ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻌﯽ وﺟﻮد ﻧﺪارد و اﯾﻦ‬ ‫ﮐﺎﻣﻠﯽ را از ﻃﺒﯿﻌﺖ ﭘﻮﯾﺎي آن ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ‪ .‬اﯾﻦ‬ ‫ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ در دو ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﻪ اﻧﺠﺎم رﺳﯿﺪه اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺄﯾﯿﺪ ﻫﻤﻪ ﻧﻮﯾﺴﻨﺪﮔﺎن اﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺿﻤﻦ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ اﺟﺮا ﺑﻮدن‪،‬‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ را ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮﻟﯽ در ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺳﺎﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ 1.Alami, M.T., Aghabalai, B., Ahmadi, M.H., and Farzin, S. 2015. Optimal Allocation of Water Resource Systems Using Dynamic System, Journal of Water Resources Engineering, Seventh Year, Pp: 99-99. 2.Atay Kia, A., Shahbazi, A.R., and Ramesht, M.H. 2017. Geomorphological development of wells, Geographical studies of arid regions, 6: 24. 118-104. 3.Azizi, Q.H., Nazif, S., and Abbasi, F. 2017. Evaluation of Operation Performance of Urmia Catchment Dams Using Systems Dynamics Approach, Geographical Studies of Dry Areas, Volume 7, Number Twenty-Five, pp. 63-48. 4.Chen, Z., and Wei, S. 2014. Application of system dynamics to water security research. Water resources management, 28: 2. 287-300. 5.Elsawah, S., Pierce, S.A., Hamilton, S.H., Delden, H.V., Haase, D., Elmahdi, A., and Jakeman, A.J. 2017. An overview of the system dynamics process for integrated modelling of socio-ecological systems: Lessons on good modelling practice from five case studies, Environmental Modelling & Software, volume 93, July 2017, Pp: 127-145. 6.Forrester, J.W. 1961. Industrial dynamics, 1nd edn, [Cambridge, Mass.] M.I.T. Press, England, 464p. 7.Jalali, M., Sharafi Avarzaman, Z., Rahmandad, H., and Ammerman, A. 2016. Social influence in childhood obesity interventions: a systematic review. Obesity Reviews, 17: 9. 820-832. 8.Loucks, D.P., Stedinger, J.R., and Haith, D.A. 1981. Water resources systems planning and analysis. 1th Ed., Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New York. 9.Loucks, D.P., Beek, E.V., Stedinger, J.R., Dijkaman, J.P.M., and Villars, M.T. 2005. Water resources system planning and management: An Introduction to methods, models and application. 1th Ed., UNESCO, Paris. 10.Mehr Azar, A., Masah Boani, A.R., Mashal, M., and Rahimi-Khob, H. 2017. Integrated Modeling of Water Resources, Agricultural and SocioEconomic Systems of Hashtgerd Plain ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‬ 41 with Dynamic Systems Approach, Water and Irrigation Management, 6: 2. 279-263. 11.Niazi, A.S., Prasher, J., and Adamowski, T. Gleeson. 2014. A System Dynamics Model to Conserve Arid Region Water Resources through Aquifer Storage and Recovery in Conjunction with a Dam. Sirick, Iran, 6: 12. 3957-3959. 12.Rajaian, M.P.M. 2013. Dynamic Systems Simulation with Vensim Software, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Publications, Second Edition, 212p. 13.Read, L., Madani, K., and Inanloo, B. 2014. Optimality versus stability in water resource allocation, Journal of Environmental Management, 133: 343-354. 14.Sabaghi, M., Shahnazari, A., and Ziai, A.N. 2018. Simulation and Evaluation of Water Evaluation Index of Shahid Yaghoubi Reservoir Dam Using System Dynamics Analysis, Journal of Abkhiz Basin Management, Eighth Year, 16: 200-188. 15.Senge, P.M. 1990. The Fifth Discipline, the Art & Practice of the Learning Organization, New York: Currency Doubleday, New York. 16.Sheikh Khozani, Z., Hosseini, Kh., and Rahimian, M. 2011. Modeling Multipurpose Fuel Operation Using System Dynamics, Journal of Modeling in Engineering, Eighth Year, 21: 67-57. 17.Soltani, M., and Alizadeh, H.A. 2018. Integrated Management of Agricultural Water at the Watershed Scale (IWMsim) with System Dynamics Approach, Journal of Water and Soil Conservation, 7: 2. 69-90. 18.Song, C., Yan, J., Sha, J., He, G., Lin, X., and Ma, Y. 2018. Dynamic Modeling Application for Simulating Optimal Policies on Water Conservation in Zhangjiakou City, China, Journal of Cleaner Production. 19.Stave, K. 2010. Participatory system dynamics modeling for sustainable environmental management: Observations from four cases. Sustainability, 2: 9. 2762-2784. 1400 (1) ‫ ﺷﻤﺎره‬،(28) ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ‬ 20.Sun, Y., Liu, N., Shang, J., and Zhang, J. 2016. Sustainable utilization of water resources in China: A system dynamics model, Journal of Cleaner Production, doi: 10.1016/ jjclepro.2016.07.110. 21.United Nations-Water. 2005. A gender perspective on water resources and sanitation. Interagency task force on gender and water. In: The 12th Session of the Commission on Sustainable Development. 22.United Nations-Water. 2008. Status report on integrated water resources management and water efficiency plans. In: The 16th Session of the Commission on Sustainable Development. 23.Ventana Systems, Inc. 2004. Vensim 5 User’s Guide, Ventana Systems. Harvard, MA, USA. 24.Wang, X.J., Zhang, J.Y., Liu, J.F., Wang, G.Q., He, R.M., Elmahdi, A., and Elsawah, S. 2011. Water resources planning and management based on system dynamics: A case study of yulin city. Environ. Dev. Sustain, 29: 13. 331-351. 25.Xing, L., Xue, M., and Hu. 2019. Dynamic simulation and assessment of the coupling coordination degree of the economy- resource- environment system: Case of Wuhan City in China, Journal of Environmental Management. 230: 474-487. 26.Zarghami, S.A., Gunawan, I., and Schultmann, F. 2018. System Dynamics Modelling Process in Water Sector: a Review of Research Literature, Systems research behavioral science, 35: 6. 27.Zhang, F., Liu, X., Zhang, J., Wu, R., Ma, Q., and Chen, Y. 2017. Ecological vulnerability assessment based on multi-sources data andSD model in Yinma River Basin, China, Ecological Modelling, 349: 41-50. 28.Zhang, Y., and Shao, Q. 2018. Uncertainty and its propagation estimation for an integrated water system model: An experiment from water quantity to quality simulations, Journal of Hydrology, 565: 623-635. 29.Zomorodian, M., Lai, S.H., Homayounfar, M., Ilbrahim, S., Fatemi, S.E., and El-Shafie, A. 2018. The stateof-the-art system dynamics application in integrated water resources modeling, Journal of Environmental Management, 227: 294-304. 42 ‫ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران‬ Research Full Paper J. of Water and Soil Conservation, Vol. 28(1), 2021 http://jwsc.gau.ac.ir DOI: 10.22069/jwsc.2021.18451.3402 Simulation and Dynamics of Hirmand Basin Water Resources System under management scenarios N. Ali Ahmadi1, E. Moradi*2, S.M. Hosseini2 and A. Sardar Shahraki2 1 2 Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Assistant Prof., Dept. of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan Received: 10.10.2020; Accepted: 02.22.2021 Abstract1 Background and Objectives: One of the most important issues for mankind in the present century is access to water resources. Increasing population growth and expanding industry have made agricultural development in arid and semi-arid regions a major challenge. The depletion of water resources and the critical situation in the drinking, agricultural, industrial and environmental sectors are a major problem. An essential principle is the relative balance of water supply and demand that emerges with the creation of a comprehensive water management system. Materials and Methods: The present study was carried out in Hirmand catchment in Sistan area, focusing on the issue of Hirmand river flow and the volume of Chah Nimeh. In order to control the alignment of Chah Nimeh, modeling steps were developed and the basis of the problem was investigated in the process of forming flow-storage diagrams. Using Vensim software, the effect of each variable was simulated on the problem and the calibration and model validation were fitted to different methods such as statistical tests. Results: The results of the tests show that the model corresponds to reality and the model behavior is consistent with the behavior of the system in reality. According to the statistical tests performed, between the observed and simulated values for the well reserves variable, the coefficient of determination is equal to 0.84, the root mean square error (RSME) is equal to 0.25 and the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion is equal to It is 0.77 in 2019. According to the findings, the demand for various agricultural, drinking and environmental needs will increase in the coming years. The total demand in 1410 will increase from 1350.01 to 1515.93 million cubic meters, which will be impossible to meet the needs despite the reduction of system resources. The largest increase in demand will be in the agricultural and drinking sectors. Conclusion: The results show that the irrigation efficiency policies of 70% in the agricultural sector and the reduction of water losses (reduction of evaporation by 50%) based on the proposed scenarios were implemented by the model. Examining the results of these scenarios, it is seen that each of these solutions will reduce water shortage in the coming years, but the best result has been achieved in the first scenario (70% irrigation efficiency in the agricultural sector). In general, the findings show that the continuation of the current consumption trend and, consequently, the continued withdrawal of water resources with the same trend, will have irreparable effects. In this situation, modeling optimal consumption in different sectors, observing limit conditions and creating a culture based on non-extravagance is one of the key issues in crisis management and is one of the most basic foundations of consumption management. Keywords: Modeling and Simulation, System Dynamics, Vensim, Water Resources Management, Watershed * Corresponding Author; Email: ebmoradi31@gmail.com 43 ‫ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ )‪ ،(28‬ﺷﻤﺎره )‪1400 (1‬‬ ‫‪44‬‬