ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﮐﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻠﻤﯽ -ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﯽ
ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك
ﺟﻠﺪ ﺑﯿﺴﺖ و ﻫﺸﺘﻢ ،ﺷﻤﺎره اول1400 ،
23- 43
http://jwsc.gau.ac.ir
DOI: 10.22069/jwsc.2021.18451.3402
ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي و ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ
2
ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي ،1اﺑﺮاﻫﯿﻢ ﻣﺮادي* ،2ﺳﯿﺪ ﻣﻬﺪي ﺣﺴﯿﻨﯽ 2و ﻋﻠﯽ ﺳﺮدارﺷﻬﺮﮐﯽ
1داﻧﺸﺠﻮي دﮐﺘﺮي ﮔﺮوه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي ،داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن2 ،اﺳﺘﺎدﯾﺎر ﮔﺮوه اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي ،داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن
ﭼﮑﯿﺪه
1
ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ درﯾﺎﻓﺖ 1399/07/19 :؛ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﭘﺬﯾﺮش1399/12/04 :
ﺳﺎﺑﻘﻪ و ﻫﺪف :ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎت ﻣﻄﺮح ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺸﺮ در ﻗﺮن ﺣﺎﺿﺮ دﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب اﺳﺖ .رﺷﺪ روز
اﻓﺰون ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و ﮔﺴﺘﺮش ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ،ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﮐﺸﺎورزي در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺧﺸﮏ و ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺧﺸﮏ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب ﻣﻄﻤﺌﻦ را ﺑﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از
ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎي اﺳﺎﺳﯽ ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﮐﺮده اﺳﺖ .ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب و ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ ﺷﺪن وﺿﻌﯿﺖ آن در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﺷﺮب ،ﮐﺸﺎورزي،
ﺻﻨﻌﺖ و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ را ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﮑﻞ ﺑﺰرﮔﯽ روﺑﻪرو ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ .ﯾﮏ اﺻﻞ اﺳﺎﺳﯽ و ﺿﺮوري ،رﺳﯿﺪن ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻧﺴﺒﯽ
در زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ آب اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﯾﺠﺎد ﻧﻈﺎم ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ آب ﭘﺪﯾﺪار ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد.
ﻣﻮاد و روشﻫﺎ :ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﺎ ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ
و ﺣﺠﻢ آب ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪﻫﺎ در ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1379-1397ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ .ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﺗﺮاز ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪﻫﺎ ،ﮔﺎمﻫﺎي
ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ داده ﺷﺪ و اﺳﺎس ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ در ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﺷﮑﻞﮔﯿﺮي ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ﺟﺮﯾﺎن -ذﺧﯿﺮه ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ .ﺑﺎ
ﺑﻪﮐﺎرﮔﯿﺮي از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار Vensimاﺛﺮ ﻫﺮﮐﺪام از ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ ،ﺑﺮ روي ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه و ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن و ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ
ﻣﺪل ﺑﻪ روشﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ آزﻣﻮنﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮازش ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ.
ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ :ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ آزﻣﻮنﻫﺎ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ واﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺖ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﺪل ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺎ رﻓﺘﺎر ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ در
واﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪاي ﮐﻪ ﻃﺒﻖ آزﻣﻮنﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﺷﺪه و ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه
ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ،0/84ﺧﻄﺎي ﺟﺬر ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ) (RMSEﺑﺮاﺑﺮ 0/25و ﻣﻌﯿﺎر
ﻧﺶ -ﺳﺎﺗﮑﻠﯿﻒ ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ 0/77در ﺳﺎل 1397ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ،ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺮاي ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي
ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ،ﺷﺮب و ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ .ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﻞ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ در ﺳﺎل 1410از
1350/01ﺑﻪ 1515/93ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ وﺟﻮد ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻏﯿﺮﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ.
ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ در ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻫﺎ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﺷﺮب ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد .ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ
ﮐﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري 70درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت آب )ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان (%50ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ
ﺑﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺪل اﺟﺮا ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ.
* ﻣﺴﺌﻮل ﻣﮑﺎﺗﺒﻪebmoradi31@gmail.com :
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ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ ) ،(28ﺷﻤﺎره )1400 (1
ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي :ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري 70درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت آب
)ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان (%50ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺪل اﺟﺮا ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ .ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ
ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد ﮐﻪ ﻫﺮ ﯾﮏ از اﯾﻦ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎ ،ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد وﻟﯽ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ در
ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي اول )راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري 70درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي( ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﮐﻠﯽ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ
ﮐﻪ اداﻣﻪ روﻧﺪ ﻣﺼﺮف ﻓﻌﻠﯽ و ﺑﻪ ﺗﺒﻊ آن اداﻣﻪ ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺑﺎ ﻫﻤﯿﻦ روﻧﺪ ،اﺛﺮات ﺟﺒﺮان ﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮي در ﭘﯽ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ
داﺷﺖ .در اﯾﻦ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي ﻣﺼﺮف ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ،رﻋﺎﯾﺖ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺣﺪي و ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮓﺳﺎزي ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ
ﻋﺪم اﺳﺮاف ﺟﺰو ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪي در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﺤﺮان ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ و ﯾﮑﯽ از اﺳﺎﺳﯽﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭘﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﺼﺮف ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
واژهﻫﺎي ﮐﻠﯿﺪي :ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ،ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ،ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي و ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ،ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آبVensim ،
ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ
در دﻫﻪﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺧﺸﮏ و ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺧﺸﮏ
ﻫﺪف ﮐﻪ داراي ﺗﻌﺪادي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮي اﺳﺖ
ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻗﯿﻮدي اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد .ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي
آب از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ راﻫﺒﺮدي ﺟﻮاﻣﻊ ﺑﺸﺮي و
ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﻃﺮحﻫﺎ و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي
ﻋﻨﺼﺮي ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار در ﺟﻬﺎن ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه
ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .اﯾﻦ ﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ
اﺳﺖ ) .(20ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺸﺮ و ﻋﺎﻣﻞ
ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ و ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻓﺮد ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ ،ﺑﻪ
ﻣﺤﺪودﯾﺖ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﯾﺪار ،وﺟﻮد ﺑﺤﺮان آب ﻧﺎﺷﯽ
ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ رﻓﺘﺎر ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﯽﭘﺮدازﻧﺪ .اﻋﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي
از اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ رﺷﺪ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ
ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي در ﻗﺪرت و ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﯾﯽ آنﻫﺎ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺣﻞ
ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ) 19و .(21ﻗﺴﻤﺘﯽ از ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي
ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ
ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﻣﻬﺎر آبﻫﺎي ﺳﻄﺤﯽ
داراي رواﺑﻂ و ﻗﯿﻮدﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ،در ﺻﻮرﺗﯽﮐﻪ
ﺑﻪوﺳﯿﻠﻪ ﻣﺨﺎزن اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد .وﺟﻮد ﻣﺤﺪودﯾﺖ
ﻣﺘﺪﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي ﺧﯿﻠﯽ ﮐﻢ ﻗﺪرت و ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﯾﯽ
ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺗﺤﺖ ﮐﻨﺘﺮل و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﺪاوم ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻫﺎ ،ﻧﯿﺎز
رﺳﯿﺪﮔﯽ ﺑﻪ آن ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ را دارﻧﺪ ) .(13 ،9ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ
ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ و ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب داراي ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه
ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب دارد .ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪاي ﮐﻪ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﺑﻪ
ﻣﻬﻤﯽ اﺳﺖ و ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﯾﮏ اﺑﺰار ﻻزم و ﺿﺮوري
ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﮔﺮدد ،ﺳﺒﺐ رﻓﻊ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي ﻧﺴﻞ
ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮي در ﻓﺮاﯾﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ).(8
ﻓﻌﻠﯽ و آﯾﻨﺪه ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد .ﻫﺪفﻫﺎي ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن در ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﯿﺎن ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻣﻮﺟﺐ اﯾﺠﺎد ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ از
ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد و ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ در رواﺑﻂ ﺧﻄﯽ
اﯾﻦ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد .ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﯽ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ
و ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ،ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻣﻌﻀﻼت و
ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻤﻨﺪي و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻃﺮحﻫﺎي ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن ﺑﻪ
ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ در ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﺎ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب را ﺳﺨﺖﺗﺮ و ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪهﺗﺮ
ﺟﻬﺖ ﭘﺎﺳﺦﮔﻮﯾﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻫﺎي آب اﺳﺖ
ﻣﯽﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ ) .(4ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪﮔﯽﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ
) .(15ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي راﯾﺞ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮاي
ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب و ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ در
ﻣﺨﺰنﻫﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ ،ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي،
ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻞ و واﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ آن ،ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﻪ ﯾﮏ ﻧﮕﺮش ﺟﺎﻣﻊ و
ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي و ﺗﺮﮐﯿﺐ ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي و ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي اﺳﺖ.
ﮐﺎﻣﻞ و آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺮ دارد ،ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪاي ﮐﻪ ﻫﻤﻪ ﺟﻮاﻧﺐ
در ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي ﺑﺮ ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ و ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ ﮐﺮدن ﺗﺎﺑﻊ
ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار و ﺑﺎزﺧﻮردﻫﺎي اﺟﺰا ﺑﺮ ﻫﻤﺪﯾﮕﺮ را ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺑﯽ
24
ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﻣﯽﻧﻤﺎﯾﺪ و در ﻧﻈﺎرت ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ و آﺗﯽ
ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮﺳﺎزي ﻧﺮخ ﺗﺼﻔﯿﻪ ﻓﺎﺿﻼب و ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﺑﻬﺮهوري
در اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج راﻫﺒﺮدي و ﮔﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ اﺛﺮﮔﺬار
ﻣﺠﺪد از آب ﺷﻮد .ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ ،راه اﺳﺎﺳﯽ ﺑﺮاي
ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
اﯾﺠﺎد ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﯿﻦ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺑﻬﺒﻮد
از اﺑﺰارﻫﺎي ﺳﻮدﻣﻨﺪ در ﻧﮕﺮش ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪ در
ﻋﺮﺿﻪ آب ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎي ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ اﺳﺖ ) .(19ﻋﺰﯾﺰي و
ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي و ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽﻫﺎ ،روﺷﯽ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﮕﺮش
ﻫﻤﮑﺎران ) ،(2017ﺑﻪ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اوﻟﯿﻦﺑﺎر ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﺎرﺳﺘﺮ در
ﺳﺪﻫﺎي ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ اروﻣﯿﻪ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ
دﻫﻪ 60ﻣﻄﺮح ﺷﺪ .ﺑﺮﻋﮑﺲ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي رﯾﺎﺿﯽ ،روش
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ .ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﻃﺮحﻫﺎي
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﻪﮐﺎرﮔﯿﺮي در ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي
ﺳﺎزهاي در ﺳﻄﺢ ﺣﻮزه 42درﺻﺪ از ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ورودي
ﻣﺎﮐﺮوﺳﮑﻮﭘﯽ ﭘﻮﯾﺎ و درازﻣﺪت را دارد و ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﯿﺎن
ﺑﻪ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ را ﮐﺎﻫﺶ دادهاﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ از اﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺣﺪود
ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي -اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ،ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ،زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ،
%26ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺑﻬﺮهداري از ﻫﻔﺖ ﺳﺪ اﺻﻠﯽ اﺳﺖ و
ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﺳﯿﻞ و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ آﺳﯿﺐﻫﺎي ﺣﻮادث ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ را ﺑﻪ
%16در ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ
ﺧﻮﺑﯽ ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ ) .(4ﺑﺪﯾﻦﻣﻨﻈﻮر ،اﮐﺜﺮ
ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از ﻧﯿﺎز آﺑﯽ در ﺣﻮزه ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ ).(3
ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮان ﺟﻬﺖ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ و ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي
ﻣﻬﺮآذر و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران ) ،(2017در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪاي ﺑﻪ
ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪهاي ﭼﻮن ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ،از رﻫﯿﺎﻓﺖ ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪ
ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ،ﮐﺸﺎورزي
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﻬﺮه ﻣﯽﺟﻮﯾﻨﺪ.
و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي -اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ دﺷﺖ ﻫﺸﺘﮕﺮد ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد
ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدﻫﺎي روﯾﮑﺮد ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ داﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮏ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪﻫﺎي
دﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮑﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ .ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ
ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن روﺑﻪ ﮔﺴﺘﺮش ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .در ﻃﻮل ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي
ﻣﺪل ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ،ﻧﯿﺎز آب ﺷﺮب ،ﻧﯿﺎز آب
اﺧﯿﺮ ،ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮاﻧﯽ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن در ارﺗﺒﺎط
ﺻﻨﻌﺖ و ارزش اﻓﺰوده ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻣﺪل ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر
ﺑﺎ آب ،اﯾﻦ روﯾﮑﺮد را ﺑﻪﮐﺎر ﺑﺮدهاﻧﺪ :اﻋﻠﻤﯽ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
ﺑﺎزﺳﺎزي رﻓﺘﺎر ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ درون ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﻪ
) ،(2015ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﭘﻮﯾﺎي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺳﺪ و آبﻫﺎي
ﺧﻮﺑﯽ واﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺷﺪه و ﻧﺸﺎندﻫﻨﺪه ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺪل در
زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ آب ﺑﺮاي ﺳﺪ ﮔﻠﮏ
ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب دﺷﺖ ﻫﺸﺘﮕﺮد ﺗﺤﺖ
ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ .ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ آﻧﺴﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺣﺪاث ﺳﺪ
ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ در دورهﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ اﺳﺖ .ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ
ﺗﻐﺬﯾﻪاي ﮔﻠﮏ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﺻﺪدرﺻﺪ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي ﺷﺮب،
اﯾﻦ ﻣﺪل را ﻣﯽﺗﻮان اﺑﺰار ﭘﺸﺘﯿﺒﺎن ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ در ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ
ﺻﻨﻌﺖ و ﮐﺸﺎورزي از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ،
اﺛﺮات ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﻫﺎ و اﻗﺪامﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي
ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺑﯿﻼن ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ را ﺑﻪ 0/57
ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ دﺷﺖ ﻫﺸﺘﮕﺮد در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﺤﺮان آب ﻣﻮﺟﻮد
رﺳﺎﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺗﺰرﯾﻖ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ 2ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن
در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻪﮐﺎر ﺑﺮد ) .(10ﺻﺒﺎﻏﯽ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )،(2018
ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﭘﺨﺶ ﺳﯿﻼب ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ) .(1ﺳﺎن و
ﺑﻪ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي و ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﮑﺎﭘﻮي آب ﺳﺪ
ﻫﻤﮑﺎران ) ،(2017در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪاي ﺑﻪ ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري ﭘﺎﯾﺪار
ﻣﺨﺰﻧﯽ ﺷﻬﯿﺪ ﯾﻌﻘﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ
از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب در ﭼﯿﻦ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1378 -91ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ .ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ
ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ .ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﯾﮏ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ
ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي و ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯽ و
ﭘﺎﯾﺪار ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻧﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺳﺒﺐ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﭘﺎﯾﺪار و
ﻣﺸﻮرت ﺑﺎ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ،ﺑﻪ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ
ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺖ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ زﻣﯿﻦﻫﺎي زراﻋﯽ ﺷﻮد ،ﺑﻠﮑﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ
ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﺳﺪ و ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺗﮑﺎﭘﻮي آب ) (W.D.Pﮐﻪ
25
ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ ) ،(28ﺷﻤﺎره )1400 (1
ﻣﻌﺎدل 0/128ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ ) .(14ﺳﻠﻄﺎﻧﯽ و
ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻻزم داﻧﺴﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ
ﻋﻠﯿﺰاده ) ،(2018ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ آب ﮐﺸﺎورزي در
در ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ،ﮐﺸﺎورزي ،اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي-
اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد.
ﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ) (IWMsimﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ
ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦﮐﻪ ﺗﺎﮐﻨﻮن ﻫﯿﭻ ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﯽ ﺑﺎ
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ .ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﻣﺪل
اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ و ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ
ﻗﺎدر اﺳﺖ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﮐﻠﯿﺪي ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻧﺴﺒﯽ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت
ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري و ﻧﯿﺰ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ
زراﻋﯽ ،ﺗﺮاز آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ و ﺷﻮري آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ را
رواﺑﻂ و ﺑﺎزﺧﻮردﻫﺎي ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺼﺎرف ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن اﻧﺠﺎم
ﺑﺎ دﻗﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﮐﻨﺪ ) .(16ﺳﺎﻧﮓ و
ﻧﮕﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ
ﻫﻤﮑﺎران ) ،(2018ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮد ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﺮاي
ﺑﻌﻨﻮان ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﻬﻢ در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي
ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ در ﻣﻮرد ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ از آب
ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ،در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮي از
در ﺷﻬﺮ Zhangjiakouدر ﮐﺸﻮر ﭼﯿﻦ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ.
روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ اﺛﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺮ
ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ از ﺳﺎل 2013ﺗﺎ
ﺣﺠﻢ آب ﻣﺨﺎزن و ﮐﻤﺒﻮد در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻮرد
،2025اﻫﺪاف ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ از آب ،از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺣﻔﻆ آب و
ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ.
ﮐﻨﺘﺮل ﻣﺤﯿﻂ آب ،ﺑﺎ ﻧﺮخ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎزﻫﺎي
ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪاي اﮐﺴﯿﮋن ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان %12/6و ﻧﺮخ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ
ﻣﻮاد و روشﻫﺎ
ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ %4/3در ﻣﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد.
ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ :درﯾﺎﭼﻪ و رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻓﺼﻠﯽ ﻫﺎﻣﻮن
ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ در اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب اﺣﯿﺎ ﺷﺪه،
و ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ در دﺷﺖ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن ،از اﻫﻤﯿﺖ وﯾﮋهاي
ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از آب-ﻫﺎي زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ و ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي
ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ ،ﺣﻮزه ﻫﺎﻣﻮن ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ،داراي وﺳﻌﺖ
ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﺻﻨﺎﯾﻊ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب ﻧﻘﺶ دارد ).(17
34ﻫﺰار و 273ﮐﯿﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮﻣﺮﺑﻊ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ 74/5درﺻﺪ
اﯾﮑﺴﯿﻨﮓ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران ) ،(2019ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از
ﺳﻄﺢ ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ در ﺳﻄﺢ اﺳﺘﺎن اﺳﺖ .رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﺮاي ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ
ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ و ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ ،ﻣﻨﺒﻊ اﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب دﺷﺖ
ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي -ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ–ﻣﺤﯿﻂ در ﮐﺸﻮر
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و در واﻗﻊ ﺷﺎﻫﺮگ اﺻﻠﯽ و ﺣﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ
ﭼﯿﻦ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ .ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮕﯽ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻣﺪل
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن اﺳﺖ .ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ذﺧﯿﺮه
CCDM1ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮕﯽ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي
ﺑﺨﺸﯽ از آب ﻣﺎزاد رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ و اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﯾﻦ
اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺪﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ و ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺖ در
ذﺧﯿﺮه در ﻓﺼﻮل ﮐﻢ آﺑﯽ و ﺧﺸﮏ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار
ﮐﻮﺗﺎهﻣﺪت ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد را دارد ).(24
ﮔﺮﻓﺖ .ﺗﺮاز ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ درﯾﺎﭼﻪ 492ﻣﺘﺮ و ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖ
ﻃﺒﻖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ،
ﮐﻞ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺨﺎزن 660ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮنﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
در ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ
ﺿﻤﻦ اﯾﻦﮐﻪ ﻇﺮﻓﯿﺖ ﻣﻔﯿﺪ و ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري
ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ-اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺗﻮأم ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ .ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ
در ﺻﻮرﺗﯽﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮر ﺛﻘﻠﯽ آب از آن ﺧﺎرج ﺷﻮد
اﯾﻦ ،درآﻣﺪ ﺑﺴﯿﺎري از ﻣﺮدم ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﺸﺎورزي
340ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮنﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .اﯾﻦ ﻣﺨﺎزن در ﺣﺎل
و داﻣﭙﺮوري ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ ،ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺧﻮد ﺳﺒﺐ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻧﯿﺎز
ﺣﺎﺿﺮ آب ﺷﺮب ﮐﻞ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺷﻬﺮ زاﻫﺪان را
در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد .ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ
ﻧﯿﺰ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ ).(2
1- Coupling Coordination Degree Model
26
ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
ﺷﮑﻞ -1ﻣﻮﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻗﺮارﮔﯿﺮي ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪﻫﺎ در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ).(2
Figure 1. Location of wells in the Helmand catchment.
ﻣﺼﺎرف آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﺷﺮب،
ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪاي )ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺳﻨﺎد ،ﻣﺪارك و آرﺷﯿﻮ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت
ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺖ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺳﻄﺤﯽ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ
ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ و ﺷﺒﮑﻪﻫﺎي آﺑﯿﺎري و
ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد .آب ﺳﻄﺤﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮردﻧﻈﺮ از رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ
زﻫﮑﺸﯽ ،ﻣﻌﺎوﻧﺖ اﻣﻮر آب و آﺑﻔﺎي اﺳﺘﺎن ،ﺷﺮﮐﺖ
ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ اﺳﺖ .در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي اﺧﯿﺮ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و
آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن ،وزارت
اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﮐﺸﺖوﮐﺎر ،ﻣﺼﺎرف در ﺑﺨﺶ ﺷﺮب و
ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﺳﺘﺎن،
ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻂ )ﺗﺎﻻب ﻫﺎﻣﻮن(
آﻣﺎرﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﺳﺘﺎن ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن،
اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ .اﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ
ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺸﺎور آب( ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ
آب ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﺨﺶ ﺷﺮب ،ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺣﺠﻢ آب
ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه و ﺿﺮاﯾﺐ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ در
و
ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﻣﺪل ،در ﺟﺪول 1آورده ﺷﺪه
ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ
ﺑﻪ
ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي
ﮐﺸﺎورزي
اﺳﺖ.
زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده در
اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1379-1397از ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت
27
ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ ) ،(28ﺷﻤﺎره )1400 (1
ﺟﺪول -1ﺟﺰﺋﯿﺎت ﺑﺮﺧﯽ از ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻣﻬﻢ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎ و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده در .HRW – MSM
Table 1. Details of some important values of parameters and historical sources used in HRW – MSM.
ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ
ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ اوﻟﯿﻪ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده
ﻣﻨﺒﻊ
Variables
Initial values used
Source
ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ
ذﺧﯿﺮه
Save
variable
ﮐﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ
) 35000ﻧﻔﺮ(
Total population
Person
دام ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ
) 132344رأس(
Heavy trap
Head
Fixed
Statistics Center of Iran and
Agricultural Jihad Statistics
دام ﺳﺒﮏ
) 890784رأس(
Light trap
Head
ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ درآﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎي ﺷﻬﺮي
) 100328ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن رﯾﺎل(
آﻣﺎرﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي
Per capita income of urban households
Million Rial
Agricultural Jihad Statistics
درآﻣﺪ ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ
) 170794ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن رﯾﺎل(
Rural per capita net household income
Million Rial
ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل
) 8000ﺗﻦ(
Product performance
Ton
ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ 3 ،2 ،1و 4
) 330ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ(
Chah Nimeh reserves 1, 2, 3 and 4
Million Square Meter
ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﻧﯿﺎزي اب ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺷﻬﺮي در ﻫﺮ روز
ﺛﺎﺑﺖ
ﻣﺮﮐﺰ آﻣﺎر اﯾﺮان و آﻣﺎرﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي
ﺷﺮﮐﺖ آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪاي اﺳﺘﺎن
Regional Water Company of the
province
) 0.12ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در روز(
The per capita need for water of the urban
population every day
Cubic meters per day
ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﻧﯿﺎزي اب ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ در ﻫﺮ روز
) 0.12ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در روز(
Per capita need for water of rural population every day
Cubic meters per day
ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﻧﯿﺎزي آب دام ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ در ﻫﺮ روز
) 0.090ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در روز(
Per capita need for heavy livestock water every day
Cubic meters per day
ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﻧﯿﺎزي آب دام ﺳﺒﮏ در ﻫﺮ روز
) 0.01ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در روز(
Per capita need for light livestock water every day
Cubic meters per day
آﻣﺎرﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺟﻬﺎد ﮐﺸﺎورزي
Agricultural Jihad Statistics
اﻣﮑﺎن ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ،ذﺧﯿﺮه ،ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ،ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ و ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي
روش ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ :رﻓﺘﺎر ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ از ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر آنﻫﺎ
ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ داﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮏ را ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ).(28 ،23
ﻧﺸﺄت ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮد .اﯾﻦ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺣﻠﻘﻪﻫﺎي
ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه و ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻤﯽ در ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ ﯾﮏ
ﺑﺎزﺧﻮردي ،ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺣﺎﻟﺖ )اﻧﺒﺎره( و ﻧﺮخ )ﺟﺮﯾﺎن(،
ﺳﺮي از زوج ﻣﻌﺎدﻻت دﯾﻔﺮاﻧﺴﯿﻞ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻪ اول )اﻏﻠﺐ
رﻓﺘﺎرﻫﺎي ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ از ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﯿﺎن ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ و
ﻏﯿﺮﺧﻄﯽ( ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ روشﻫﺎي Runge- Kuttaﯾﺎ Euler
ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮﻫﺎي آنﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺄت ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮد ) 11و .(28در ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ
ﺣﻞ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد ،ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ) .(22ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﺪل از ﮐﻞ
ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﮐﻪ ﯾﮏ اﺑﺰار ﻗﺪرﺗﻤﻨﺪ
ﺑﻪ ﺟﺰ اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ،ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرﺗﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪﻃﻮر ﺗﺪرﯾﺠﯽ
ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ،ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ،اﻧﺠﺎم
ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ و اﺟﺰاء اﺗﺼﺎل ﺷﺪه ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ ﺷﺪه ﺗﺎ اﯾﻦﮐﻪ ﻣﺪل
آزﻣﻮن ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه
ﮐﺎﻣﻞ ﺷﻮد ) .(25 ،7از ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮ در زﻣﺎن ﺳﺎﺧﺖ
ﻧﻈﺎمﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار
ﻣﺪل ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﻪﻃﻮر ﻣﮑﺮر ﻣﺪل را ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮآورد و
Vensimﻧﻮﻋﯽ اﺑﺰار ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺗﺼﻮﯾﺮي اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ
ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻗﺮار دﻫﺪ و ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ را از
ﺑﻪﺻﻮرﺗﯽ ﺳﺎده و اﻧﻌﻄﺎفﭘﺬﯾﺮ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﻫﺎي
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ ﺑﯿﺎورد ) 5و .(18
ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن را ﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﻣﯽﺳﺎزد .اﯾﻦ ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮ
28
ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .ﺑﻪ ﺑﯿﺎن دﯾﮕﺮ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻣﺒﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ آب و
ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺶ رﯾﺎﺿﯽ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ و ﺟﺮﯾﺎن :ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎي اﺳﺘﻔﺎده
ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻧﺸﺎندﻫﻨﺪه ﺟﺮﯾﺎن آب ورودي ﯾﺎ ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ
ﺷﺪه ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه -ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻧﺨﺴﺘﯿﻦ
ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ ).(6
ﺑﺎر ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﺎرﺳﺘﺮ اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪ و از ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻫﯿﺪروﻟﯿﮑﯽ
) Stock (t ) tt Inflow ( s ) Outflow (s ) ds Stock (t 0
0
)(1
ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺣﺎﻟﺖ در واﺣﺪ زﻣﺎن ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ اﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ
ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه و ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ) :(SFDزﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﻣﺪل
ﻧﺮخ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ و ﯾﺎ ﻧﺮخ ورودي و ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ:
)(2
) dt Inflow (t ) Outflow (t
HRW – MSMﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ﺣﻠﻘﻪﻫﺎي
ﻋﻠﯽ و ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻟﯽ آنﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪاﻧﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺳﺒﺐ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻒ
) d (Stock
ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺗﺠﻤﻊ و ﻧﻘﺼﺎن ﺷﺪه و روﻧﺪ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻣﻮاد
در ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ را ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﻨﺪ .ﻧﻤﻮدار دﺧﯿﺮه و ﺟﺮﯾﺎن
ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ
ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ از ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه و
ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ :ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزي ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ
ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ،ﮐﺸﺎورزي ،اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ–
اﻟﻒ( ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ
ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ در ﺷﮑﻞﻫﺎي 2ﺗﺎ 6ﻧﺸﺎن داده
ج( ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﺪل
دام ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ ،دام ﺳﺒﮏ ،ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل ،ﻧﺮخ
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﺑﻪﺻﻮرت ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ ﺳﻪﮔﺎﻧﻪ ذﯾﻞ اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد:
اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ،ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ و ﻧﯿﺎزي آب و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ
ب( ﺷﺮح ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ
ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ،
ﻣﺪل ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ و ﭘﺎﯾﺪاري ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ
ﺧﻮدﮐﻔﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻮادﻏﺬاﯾﯽ ،ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺷﻬﺮي و
آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد ﯾﮑﭙﺎرﭼﻪﺳﺎزي ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎي
ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ذﺧﯿﺮه ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در ﻧﺮخ ورودي ﯾﺎ ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ
:(HRW-MSM)1ﻣﺪل ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ و ﭘﺎﯾﺪاري ﺣﻮزه
روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ و ﺣﺠﻢ ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .اﯾﻦ
ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﻨﺪ.
ﺗﺌﻮري دﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮏ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ.
Growth rate of
Population
Total population
Water demand of
rural households
<Rural livestock
>water demand
Urban population
Rural population
Rural population
water demand
Net population
added
Water demand of
urban households
Population
urbanization rate
><Time
Water demand per capita
rural population per day
Per capita urban
water use per day
T
Domestic water
demand
ﺷﮑﻞ -2ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه -ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ.
1
Figure 2. Stock - flow diagram of population subsystem flow.
1- Hirmand River Watershed Management and Sustainability Model
29
1400 (1) ﺷﻤﺎره،(28) ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ
Urban income added
Per capita disposable income of urban
Growth rate of Per capita
disposable income of
urban
The income gap index
between urban and
Growth rate of Per
capita net income of
rural
Per capita net income of rural households
Rural income added
. اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ- ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي- ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه-3 ﺷﮑﻞ
Figure 3. Stock - flow diagram of socio - economic subsystem.
Increase in large
livestock
Large livestock stock
Growth rate of large
livestock
Growth rate of small
livestock
Increase in small
livestock
Per capita large livestock
water use per
<Time>
Per capita small
livestock water use per
Large livestock water
demand
<T>
Small livestock water
demand
Growth rate of
grain yield
Small livestock stock
Efficiency of
Irrigation Pattern0
Area of Garden
Area of Crops
<Time>
Crops Water
Requirement
Grain yield
increase
<Domestic water
demand>
Grain yield
Product revenue
Demand of
agricultural products
Production per
unit area
Tillage Pattern
Recorded
Agriculture Water
Demand
Rural livestock water
demand
Per capita grain
possession
Garden Water
Requirement1
<Grain yield>
Food production
<Total
population>
Food self – sufficiency rate
Product cost
<Agriculture Water
Demand>
Food consumption
<Total
population>
price product
Supply of
agricultural products
Capital
Labor
. ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮐﺸﺎورزي- ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه-4 ﺷﮑﻞ
Figure 4. Stock - flow diagram of agricultural subsystem.
30
<Tillage Pattern
Recorded>
ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
Surface water
evaporation
Min Storage
Sistan Flow
Pariyan Flow
Total Water
Demand
<Domestic water
>demand
<Agriculture Water
>Demand
Water transferred
from outside
<Ecological water
>demand
Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4
Annual mean
self-produced water
Water Shortage
Domestic Shortage
Agricultural Shortage
Domestic Water
Supply
Agricultural water
supply
Hirmand Flow
Surface water
resources
Precipitation
Ground water
resources
Ecological Shortage
Ecological water
supply
Total Water
Supply
ﺷﮑﻞ -5ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه -ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب.
Figure 5. Stock - flow diagram of water supply and supply subsystem.
Ecological water
demand
Environment flow
Monthly Ecological
water demand
ﺷﮑﻞ -6ﻧﻤﻮدار ذﺧﯿﺮه -ﺟﺮﯾﺎن زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ.
Figure 6. Stock - flow diagram of ecosystem subsystem.
در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ،اﺑﺘﺪا ﻣﺪل ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﯽ ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﺷﺪه
ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﻔﯿﺪ ﺑﻮدن ﯾﮏ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺑﺒﯿﻨﯿﻢ آﯾﺎ ﭼﯿﺰﻫﺎﯾﯽ
ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ
ﮐﻪ در واﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ،در ﻣﺪل وﺟﻮد دارﻧﺪ.
ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ 5زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ،ﮐﺸﺎورزي،
ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻧﮑﺘﻪ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ اﻫﯿﻤﺖ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻫﯿﭻ وﻗﺖ
ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب ،اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي -اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و
ﻧﻤﯽﺗﻮان ادﻋﺎ ﮐﺮد ﮐﻪ ﯾﮏ ﻣﺪل ﺑﻄﻮر ﮐﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎ واﻗﻌﯿﺖ
زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﮔﺴﺘﺮش داده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ
ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺖ دارد وﻣﻌﺘﺒﺮ اﺳﺖ .در ﻋﻮض ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺳﻌﯽ ﺷﻮد
ﺑﻪ ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي ﻋﻠﯽ و ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻟﯽ زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ،ﻧﻤﻮدارﻫﺎي
ﮐﻪ در ﺻﻮرت اﻣﮑﺎن ﺑﻪ واﻗﻌﯿﺖ ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
ذﺧﯿﺮه -ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ،
ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روشﻫﺎي رﺳﻤﯽ و
ﻣﻌﺎدﻻت ﺣﺎﮐﻢ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ وارد ﻣﺪل ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه و ﻣﺪل
ﻏﯿﺮرﺳﻤﯽ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮد ) .(15از راﯾﺞﺗﺮﯾﻦ
ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺷﺪ .در آﺧﺮ اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﭼﻮن
آزﻣﻮنﻫﺎي اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ،ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت
راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت آب )ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ
ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪهﺷﺪه )آزﻣﻮن ﺗﮑﺮار رﻓﺘﺎر( و آزﻣﻮن ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ
ﻣﯿﺰان (%50اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪ.
ﺣﺪي ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻧﮑﺘﻪ ﻻزم اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ درﺟﻪ
ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن و ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل :ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺸﯽ از
اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎنﭘﺬﯾﺮي از ﺻﺤﺖ ﻣﺪل ﺑﻪ ﻧﮕﺎه ﻣﺪلﺳﺎز ﻃﺒﻖ ﻣﺪ
ﭘﻮﯾﺎ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﯽ دارد و ﺑﻪ ﻫﺪفﻫﺎي ﻣﺪلﺳﺎز ارﺗﺒﺎط دارد.
واﻗﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎ ﯾﺎ ﺗﺼﻮر و ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﻣﺎ از ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ.
31
ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ ) ،(28ﺷﻤﺎره )1400 (1
ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﻧﺶ -ﺳﺎﺗﮑﻠﯿﻒ ﻧﯿﺰ از راﺑﻄﻪ زﯾﺮ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ
در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از آزﻣﻮن ﺗﮑﺮار رﻓﺘﺎر اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه
اﺳﺖ.
ﻣﯽآﯾﺪ ﮐﻪ داﻣﻨﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات آن از ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺑﯿﻨﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﺗﺎ 1را
آزﻣﻮن ﺗﮑﺮار رﻓﺘﺎر :ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺪل از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ
ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد .ﻫﺮﭼﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﺑﻪ 1ﻧﺰدﯾﮏﺗﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ
ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل دﻗﯿﻖﺗﺮ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد .ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺑﺰرگﺗﺮ
ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ دادهﻫﺎي ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ دادهﻫﺎي
از 0/5ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻗﺎﺑﻞﻗﺒﻮل ﻣﺪل ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﺷﺪه ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد .در آزﻣﻮن روﻧﺪ
دادهﻫﺎي ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه ﺑﺎ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎ دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه
ﺷﺪه ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺖ داده ﻣﯽﺷﻮد .ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ اﯾﻦﮐﻪ ﻫﺮ ﯾﮏ از
)(2
اﺑﺰارﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري در راﺳﺘﺎي ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ دادهﻫﺎي ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ و
ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪﺷﺪه داراي ﻣﺤﺎﺳﻦ و ﻣﻌﺎﯾﺒﯽ در ﺑﺮرﺳﯽﻫﺎي
اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ،R2ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﻧﺶ -ﺳﺎﺗﮑﻠﯿﻒ و
ﻣﻘﺪار ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺗﯽ و ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪاﺗﯽ
ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
ﺧﻄﺎي ﺟﺬر ﻣﯿﺎﻧﯿﮕﻦ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ) (RMSEﺑﺮاي ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ
ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ ﻣﺪل اﻧﺠﺎم ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ).(4
ﺑﺮاي ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺪل ،ﮐﻞ ﺳﺮي زﻣﺎﻧﯽ
)(3
ﺑﻪ دو ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ داده ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد .ﺑﺨﺶ اول ،ﺷﺎﻣﻞ
دادهﻫﺎي 1379-1389ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺪل ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮهﺳﺎزي
ﻣﻘﺪار
اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ اﺳﺖ .ﺷﺎﺧﺺ RMSEﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان
ﺷﺶ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ذﺧﯿﺮه ﺑﺮاي اﻧﺠﺎم ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن و
دﻗﺖ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ اﺳﺖ .ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻓﻮق در ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ
اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ،ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻞ ،دام ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ ،دام
ﺣﺎﻟﺖ )ﻧﺎ ارﯾﺒﯽ( ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪ اﻣﮑﺎن ﮐﻮﭼﮏ و ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ
ﺳﺒﮏ ،ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ ،ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل ،ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ
ﺑﻪ ﺻﻔﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ ،ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺷﻬﺮي و ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ
دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺧﺎﻧﻮار روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽﺷﻮد.
ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ و ﺑﺤﺚ
ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﻣﯿﺎن
ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن :در ﺟﺪول 2ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ
دو دﺳﺘﻪ داده ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .اﯾﻦ ﺿﺮﯾﺐ در واﻗﻊ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ
ﺑﯿﻦ دادهﻫﺎي ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه و ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﺷﺪه ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ
ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﯽ ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻈﺮ در آﯾﻨﺪه را ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻣﺪل
ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ از 70درﺻﺪ اﺳﺖ و ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ
رﯾﺎﺿﯽ ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﺷﺪه ﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺑﺮ دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺟﻮد
ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ در ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﻧﺶ -ﺳﺎﺗﮑﻠﯿﻒ ) (NSEﻣﻘﺪار آن
اﺳﺖ ،ﺑﯿﺎن ﻣﯽدارد و ﺑﺎ راﺑﻄﻪ زﯾﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد.
ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ از 0/5و ﻫﻢﭼﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار ﺧﻄﺎي ﺟﺬر ﻣﯿﺎﻧﯿﮕﻦ
اﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺻﻔﺮ و ﯾﮏ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﺳﺖ.
)(1
yi
ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽﺷﺪه ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻈﺮ از دادهﻫﺎي
1390-1397ﺑﺮاي اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽﺷﻮد.
0.5
1 n
2
RMSE= y i y i
n i 1
ﮐﻪ در آن y i ،ﻣﻘﺪار اﻧﺪازهﮔﯿﺮي ﺷﺪه و
اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽﺷﻮد و ﯾﮏ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ داده دﯾﮕﺮ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي
2
2
) ( y m ,i y m ,i ) ( y s ,i y s ,i
( y s ,i y s ,i
ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺎﻧﮕﺮ داده ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪاﺗﯽ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ y m ,i .و y s ,i
دادهﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪﺷﺪه ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ ﺷﺪه ،ﺳﭙﺲ ﺗﺴﺖ ﺧﻄﺎ ﺑﺎ
)2
( y m ,i y s ,i
NSE 1
ﮐﻪ در آنﻫﺎ y m ,i ،ﻣﻘﺪار داده ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺗﯽ و y s ,i
آﻣﺎري اﺳﺖ ،در اﯾﻦ آزﻣﻮن اﺑﺘﺪا دادهﻫﺎي ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ و
[ y m ,i y m ,i ( y s ,i y s ,i )]2
)2
ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ) (RMSEﮐﻢﺗﺮ از 0/3اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ
2
ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﺧﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﺮاي اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪل و ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽﻫﺎي
R
ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل اراﺋﻪ ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ.
32
ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
دارد )ﺟﺪول .(2ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ ،ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ )(R2
ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ :اﮐﺜﺮ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻌﯿﺎر
ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ از 0/80ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
ﻧﺶ -ﺳﺎﺗﮑﻠﯿﻒ ) (NSEﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ از 0/5و ﺧﻄﺎي ﺟﺬر
ﻣﯿﺎﻧﯿﮕﻦ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ) (RMSEﻋﺪدي ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻔﺮ
ﺟﺪول -2آزﻣﻮنﻫﺎي ﻣﺪل ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي آﻣﺎري.
Table 2. Statistical parameters model tests.
ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن
Calibration
ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ
Variables
ﺳﺎل
اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ
Validation
NSE
)(RMSE
NSE
)(RMSE
R2
R2
1380
1382
1384
1386
1388
13791390
1391
1393
1395
1397
13911397
Total population
0.97
)(0.28
0.87
)(0.27
0.69
)(0.24
0.99
)(0.28
0.99
)(0.28
0.94
0.96
)(0.28
0.93
)(0.28
0.98
)(0.28
0.94
)(0.27
0.91
Heavy trap
0.69
)(0.24
0.84
)(0.26
0.89
)(0.27
0.96
)(0.14
0.83
)(0.26
0.82
0.96
)(0.28
0.99
)(0.28
0.98
)(0.28
0.97
)(0.28
0.83
0.96
)(0.28
0.90
)(0.27
0.79
)(0.25
0.95
)(0.19
0.99
)(0.28
0.99
0.06
)(0.07
0.96
)(0.28
0.46
)(0.19
0.79
)(0.25
0.92
Product performance
0.96
)(0.28
0.99
)(0.28
0.99
)(0.28
0.99
)(0.28
0.99
)(0.28
0.89
0.69
)(0.24
0.81
)(0.26
0.80
)(0.25
0.84
)(0.26
0.93
Chah Nimeh reserves
0.57
)(0.21
0.97
)(0.28
0.72
)(0.24
0.80
)(0.08
0.93
)(0.27
0.82
0.56
)(0.12
0.88
)(0.27
0.81
)(0.26
0.77
)(0.25
0.84
0.99
)(0.28
0.99
)(0.28
0.97
)(0.28
0.96
)(0.28
0.78
)(0.25
0.96
0.84
)(0.26
0.97
)(0.28
0.97
)(0.28
0.99
)(0.28
0.92
0.97
)(0.28
0.99
)(0.28
0.94
)(0.28
0.92
)(0.28
0.94
)(0.27
0.94
0.97
)(0.28
0.97
)(0.28
0.92
)(0.27
0.99
)(0.28
0.85
Year
ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻞ
دام ﺳﻨﮕﯿﻦ
دام ﺳﺒﮏ
Light trap
ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل
ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ
ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺷﻬﺮي
Urban household per
capita wage
ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺧﺎﻧﻮار روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ
Rural per capita wage
ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﻣﻮرد ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد .ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس،
ﻃﺮاﺣﯽ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ در ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزي ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري
ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮان از راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي ﻗﺎﺑﻞ اﺟﺮا ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف
از ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ در ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ :ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ
ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﺼﺮف ،ﺑﺮاي رﺳﺎﻧﺪن وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﻪ
ﻣﺪل ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ،در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي
ﯾﮏ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﺎﺑﻞﻗﺒﻮل و ﻣﻄﻤﺌﻦ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻧﻤﻮد .ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده
آﺗﯽ ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﻧﯿﺎزي آب از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ
از روﯾﮑﺮد ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ
ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ .ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ورودي ﺑﻪ ﻣﺨﺎزن در
را در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ و اﺛﺮات ﻃﻮﻻﻧﯽﻣﺪت آنﻫﺎ را
اﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ،ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﮐﻤﺒﻮدﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺪت ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮي
ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻗﺮار داد و ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮات
اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ .ﺑﺮ ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه ،ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي
ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ را اﺗﺨﺎذ ﮐﺮد.
آﺑﯽ از ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ در ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي
آﯾﻨﺪه ﻏﯿﺮﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد .در اﯾﻦ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ،
33
ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ ) ،(28ﺷﻤﺎره )1400 (1
در اﯾﻦ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ از ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ،ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ
ﻧﺸﺎندﻫﻨﺪه اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ 11/639درﺻﺪي ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل
در ﻣﺪل ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي
ﭘﺎﯾﻪ اﺳﺖ .ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ 32/162
درﺻﺪي ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل 1379داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ .ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ
ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮان ﺑﺎ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي
ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل و ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ در واﺣﺪ ﺳﻄﺢ روﻧﺪي رو
اﺻﻼح اﻟﮕﻮي ﻣﺼﺮف در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ از ﺗﺸﺪﯾﺪ
ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ را ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ،از ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﺧﻮدﮐﻔﺎﯾﯽ
ﺑﺤﺮان ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮي ﻧﻤﻮد .ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي و ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ
ﻣﻮادﻏﺬاﯾﯽ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﭘﺎﯾﻪ 39/037 ،درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ
ﺣﺎﺻﻞ در اداﻣﻪ ﺗﺸﺮﯾﺢ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.
ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ .اﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻮادﻏﺬاﯾﯽ
ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ :(BAU)1ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﯾﮏ ،اداﻣﻪ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ
ﺑﺎﯾﺪ از ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺼﺮف وارد ﺷﻮد و
ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در ﺣﻮزه رودﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .ﺑﺪﯾﻦ
ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن در آﯾﻨﺪه از ﻧﺎاﻣﻨﯽ ﻏﺬاﯾﯽ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار
ﻣﻌﻨﺎﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ اﮔﺮ ﻫﯿﭻ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ اﻧﺠﺎم ﻧﮕﯿﺮد ،از
ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ .در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ،ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﻮاد ﻏﺬاﯾﯽ
ﻟﺤﺎظ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺘﯽ ،ﮐﺸﺎورزي ،اﻗﺘﺼﺎد و اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ،ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ
از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﻣﺸﮑﻼت ﻧﮕﺮان ﮐﻨﻨﺪه در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺎﻗﯽ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ
و ﻧﯿﺎز آﺑﯽ و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ در آﯾﻨﺪه اﯾﻦ ﺣﻮزه ﭼﻪ
ﻣﺎﻧﺪ.
وﺿﻌﯿﺘﯽ را ﺑﻪدﻧﺒﺎل ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ .ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي
در زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ و ﻧﯿﺎز آب ،ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب ﻧﺴﺒﺖ
ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ آﯾﻨﺪه ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ BAUدر ﺟﺪول 3ﻧﺸﺎن
ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﭘﺎﯾﻪ از 433/562ﺑﻪ 582/527ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن
داده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .در زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ،ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻞ
ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در ﺳﺎل 1410رﺳﯿﺪه .در ﺻﺪ رﺷﺪ
در ﺳﺎل 1410ﺑﻪ 921418ﻧﻔﺮ رﺳﯿﺪه اﺳﺖ و رﺷﺪ
اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ 34/358 ،ﺑﺮاﺑﺮي ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ و از ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﺑﺎ
ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ 116/886درﺻﺪ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ از ﺳﺎل 1379
اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ رﺷﺪ 12/290ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﻧﯿﺎز آب روﺑﻪرو ﺧﻮاﻫﯿﻢ
ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي -اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ در ﺳﺎل 1410
ﺷﺪ .ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ و ﻧﯿﺎز آب در ﺳﺎل 1410ﻧﺴﺒﺖ
درآﻣﺪ ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺷﻬﺮي و روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﻪ 494/57و
ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد 2/011درﺻﺪي رو ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ
449/59ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن رﯾﺎل ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ ،ﮐﻪ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﭘﺎﯾﻪ
ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺧﻮاﻫﯿﻢ ﺷﺪ .در زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺑﺎ
درﺻﺪ رﺷﺪي ﻣﻌﺎدل 302/580و 116/921را دارد.
ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﯿﺎز 59/991ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮنﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ و ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ 5/095
ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺷﮑﺎف درآﻣﺪي ﺑﯿﻦ ﺧﺎﻧﻮار ﺷﻬﺮي و
ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮنﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در ﺳﺎل 1410ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن ﺑﺎ
روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ از 7/11ﺑﻪ 13/195در ﺳﺎل 1410اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ
ﮐﻤﺒﻮدي ﻣﻌﺎدل 8/503درﺻﺪ ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ.
ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ درﺻﺪ رﺷﺪ 85/584ﺑﺮاﺑﺮي از
ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ رﻓﺘﺎر ﻧﯿﺎز ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب در ﺷﮑﻞ ،7
ﺳﺎل 1379ﺑﻪ 1410را داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ .اﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ
ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﺼﺮف آب ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ
ﻧﺸﺎندﻫﻨﺪه اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ روزاﻓﺰون ﺷﮑﺎف درآﻣﺪي ﻣﯿﺎن
و روﻧﺪ ﻧﯿﺎز آب ﺷﺮب و ﻧﯿﺎز آب زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎً
ﺧﺎﻧﻮار روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ و ﺷﻬﺮي و ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻋﻤﺪه دﻻﯾﻞ آن
ﺻﺎف اﺳﺖ.
ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻧﺒﻮد آب ﮐﺎﻓﯽ و ﻋﺪم ﮐﺸﺖ ﺧﺎﻧﻮارﻫﺎي
روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
در زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ،ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ در ﺳﺎل
1410ﺑﻪ 138012ﻫﮑﺘﺎر ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ ،اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار
1- Business as usual
34
ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
.BAU ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﮐﻠﯿﺪي در ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ-3 ﺟﺪول
(%) رﺷﺪ
Growth
1410
Table 3. Simulation values of key variables in the BAU scenario.
واﺣﺪ
ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎ
1404
1400
1379
116.886
921418
793197
717787
424840
116.890
322494
277615
251222
148690
116.888
598920
515577
466561
276143
302.580
494.57
377.72
315.6
122.85
116.921
449.59
387.01
350.2
207.26
unit
Variables
ﻧﻔﺮ
ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻞ
Person
Total population
ﻧﻔﺮ
ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ﺷﻬﺮي
ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ
Urban population
population
ﻧﻔﺮ
ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ
Person
Rural population
ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن رﯾﺎل
ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد ﺷﻬﺮي
Million Rials
Per capita urban wage
ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن رﯾﺎل
ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ دﺳﺘﻤﺰد روﺳﺘﺎﯾﯽ
اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ-اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي
Million Rials
Rural per capita wages
Socio-economic
ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺷﮑﺎف درآﻣﺪي
13.195
11.711
10.813
7.113
%
11.639
138012
138012
138012
123624
ﻫﮑﺘﺎر
ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ
Hectares
Area under cultivation
32.162
127399
120703
116437
96396
ﺗﻦ
ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل
Ton
Product performance
-39.037
8.295
9.130
9.733
13.608
1659.22
1826.17
1946.68
2722.81
18.393
1107.65
1049.43
1012.34
935.57
34.358
582.527
516.491
547.06
433.562
12.390
1515.93
1510.25
1506.9
1350.01
-2.011
-968.83
-993.7
-957.33
-970.33
5.095
5.095
5.095
5.095
0
0.00
59.991
59.991
59.991
59.991
-8.503
-54.896
-54.896
-54.896
-5.991
Subsystem
Person
85.584
-39.062
زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ
%
ﻧﻔﺮ/ﮐﯿﻠﻮﮔﺮم
Income gap index
ﻧﺮخ ﺧﻮدﮐﻔﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﻮاد ﻏﺬاﯾﯽ
Food self-sufficiency
rate
ﮐﺸﺎورزي
Agriculture
ﺳﺮاﻧﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮل
Kg / person
Per capita product
performance
ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ/ﮐﯿﻠﻮﮔﺮم
ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ در واﺣﺪ ﺳﻄﺢ
Kg / area under
cultivation
Production per unit
area
ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ
ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب
Million Square Meter
Water supply
ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ
ﻧﯿﺎز آب
Million Square Meter
Water demand
ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ و ﻧﯿﺎز آب
Water supply and
demand
ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ
ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب
Million Square Meter
water shortage
ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ
ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ
Million Square Meter
Environmental security
ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ
ﻧﯿﺎز زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ
زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ
Million Square Meter
Environmental demand
Environmental
ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ
ﮐﻤﺒﻮد زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ
Million Square Meter
Lack of environmental
. ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﯽﺷﻮد1379 ﺗﺎ ﺳﺎل1410 رﺷﺪ از ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽﺷﺪه در ﺳﺎل:ﺗﻮﺟﻪ
35
ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ ) ،(28ﺷﻤﺎره )1400 (1
WATER USE
200
150
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
100
1
1
50
2 3
384
MCM
MCM
MCM
2 3
2 3
1
2 3
1
3
2 3
1
2
1
2
3
2 3
288
1
2
3
2 3
3
2 3
1
2
3
1
2
3
2 3
2 3
193
HRW - MSM
1
2
2 3
2 3
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
2 3
2
3
2
3
2 3
97
2 3
2 3
2 3
2 3
0
1
Agriculture Water Demand : BAU
Domestic water demand : BAU
Ecological water demand : BAU
ﺷﮑﻞ -7رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي آب ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ .BAU
Figure 7. Variable behavior of water needs under BAU scenario.
اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار 195/96ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ
راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري 70درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي:
ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ و 0/04ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ
راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري را ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ آﺑﯿﺎري ﻣﺪرن )ﺗﺤﺖ
زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﻣﯽﺷﻮد .ﻫﻤﺎنﻃﻮر ﮐﻪ در ﺷﮑﻞ
ﻓﺸﺎر ﻗﻄﺮهاي( در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺑﻪ 70درﺻﺪ
8ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد اﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ اول
در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ داد )وزارت ﻧﯿﺮو.(1397 ،
رﺷﺪ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮي داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ ،ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ راﻧﺪﻣﺎن
ﻃﺒﻖ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه در اﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻣﺪل
آﺑﯿﺎري ﺑﺮ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب اﯾﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ و ﻫﻢﭼﻨﯿﻦ
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ داﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﮏ ) ،(SDMدر زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﮐﺸﺎورزي
ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد در ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﺛﺮﮔﺬار اﺳﺖ .در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ
ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ و ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﮐﺸﺎورزي در
ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﻮﭼﮑﯽ از اراﺿﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن ﺑﻪ
ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1404 ،1400و 1410ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 19596ﻫﮑﺘﺎر
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي آﺑﯿﺎري ﻣﺪرن آﺑﯿﺎري ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد .اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ
و 67824ﻫﺰار ﺗﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و
ﺑﻬﺮهوري ﻣﺼﺮف ﻧﯿﺎزﻣﻨﺪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي و ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري
ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ در واﺣﺪ ﺳﻄﺢ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1404 ،1400و
ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ .اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﺗﺸﻮﯾﻘﯽ و
1410ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺪار 173/71 ،167/56و 183/32ﮐﯿﻠﻮﮔﺮم
ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺘﯽ از ﻃﺮحﻫﺎي ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ ﻣﺼﺮف آب ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ در
در ﻫﮑﺘﺎر اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ.
اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ راﻧﺪﻣﺎن ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار واﻗﻊ ﮔﺮدد.
در زﯾﺮ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ
ﺑﻪ 196ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ ﮐﻪ از
36
ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
Graph for Tillage Pattern Recorded
Graph for Production per unit area
200
40,000
150
30,000
1
100
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
50
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
10,000
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
20,000
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
97
193
Time (Month)
Production per unit area : BAU 1
Production per unit area : scenario2
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
288
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
97
Graph for Total Water Demand
165
600,000
1
95
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
2
60
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
193
Time (Month)
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
288
1
2
2
1
400,000
1
1
2
1
2
384
1
2
1
2
1
ha
ha
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
200,000
2
2
2
1
1
2
Graph for Supply of agricultural products
800,000
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
Tillage Pattern Recorded : BAU 1
Tillage Pattern Recorded : scenario2
200
130
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
kg/ha
kg/ha
1
2
2
2
0
384
1
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
0
1
97
193
Time (Month)
Total Water Demand : BAU
Total Water Demand : scenario2
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
288
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
384
1
2
1
2
193
Time (Month)
Supply of agricultural products : BAU 1
Supply of agricultural products : scenario2
MCM
MCM
1
2
97
1
1
2
1
2
288
1
2
1
2
1
2
384
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
Ton
Ton
Graph for Agriculture Water Demand
Graph for Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4
200
600
500
160
1
400
2
1
300
2
12
2
2 1
1
1
1
2
1
2 1
1
12
1
2
1
2
120
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
12
1
2
1
1
1
80
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
200
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
40
1
97
"Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4" : BAU 1
"Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4" : scenario2
193
Time (Month)
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
288
1
2
1
2
1
2
384
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
MCM
MCM
97
Agriculture Water Demand : BAU
Agriculture Water Demand : scenario2
37
193
Time (Month)
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
288
1
2
1
2
1
2
384
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
MCM
MCM
ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ ) ،(28ﺷﻤﺎره )1400 (1
Graph for Agricultural Shortage
Graph for Water Shortage
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
-50
2
12
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
0
1
2
2 1
2
2
2
1
1
2
-100
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
0
12
1
1
1
2
-50
1
1
-100
-150
-150
-200
384
MCM
MCM
288
1
1
2
1
2
193
)Time (Month
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
97
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
12
-200
1
384
Water Shortage : BAU
Water Shortage : scenario2
288
MCM
MCM
1
1
2
1
193
)Time (Month
1
2
1
2
2
1
12
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
2
97
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
Agricultural Shortage : BAU
Agricultural Shortage : scenario2
Graph for Ecological Shortage
1
2
1
2
0
-1.5
-3
2
1
2
1 2
1 2
2
2
1
2
12
2
-4.5
1
1
1
12
2
2
1
2
1
12
-6
384
MCM
MCM
288
1
1
2
1
2
193
)Time (Month
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
97
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
Ecological Shortage : BAU
Ecological Shortage : scenario2
ﺷﮑﻞ -8رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻧﯿﺎز آب ،ﻧﯿﺎز ﮐﺸﺎورزي ،ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ،ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب ،ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﮐﺸﺎورزي و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ در .scenario 2
Figure 8. Behavior of variables of water requirement, agricultural requirement, semi-well reserves, water
scarcity, agricultural scarcity and environment in scenario 2.
ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب ﮐﻞ در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎ 1404 ،1400و 1410
ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت آب )ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان :(%50اﯾﻦ
ﺑﻪﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ 1/89 ،1/9و 1/9ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ و ﮐﻤﺒﻮد
ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ 50درﺻﺪي ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ از ﻣﯿﺰان اﺗﻼف
آب در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 1/88 ،1/89و 1/9
آب ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮي ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ .ﺑﺎ اﻋﻤﺎل ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان
ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ .ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ
50درﺻﺪ از ﺳﻄﺢ آبﻫﺎي آزاد ﺳﺒﺐ اﺛﺮﮔﺬاري ﺑﺮ
اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ از ﺳﻄﺢ آبﻫﺎي آزاد ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ
ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب ،ذﺧﺎﯾﺮﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ ،ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب و
ﺑﻪ درﺟﻪ ﺣﺮارت ﺑﺎﻻ در ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي
ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﮐﺸﺎورزي در زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي
ﻋﻠﻤﯽ و ﻣﺪرن ﺟﻬﺖ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﺎ درﻧﻈﺮ
ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد ﺑﻪﻃﻮريﮐﻪ در ﻣﯿﺰان ﺣﺠﻢ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ آب در
ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ و ﺳﻄﺢ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ آب ﺑﻪ
ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1404 ،1400و 1410آب ﺑﻪﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ،1/89
ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و اﻣﮑﺎنﺳﻨﺠﯽ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و
1/883و 1/913ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و
ﺗﺎﻻب ﺑﯿﻦاﻟﻤﻠﻠﯽ ﻫﺎﻣﻮن ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽﺷﻮد.
ﻣﯿﺰان ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ 0/27ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ در
ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي ﻣﺬﮐﻮر اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ .از ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﻣﻘﺪار
38
ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
Graph for Total Water Supply
Graph for Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4
200
600
150
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
384
12
1
288
MCM
MCM
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
12
2
97
1
2
1
2
2
2
12
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
MCM
MCM
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
"Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4" : BAU 1
"Reservoirs 1,2,3 and 4" : scenario4
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
-100
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
-50
2
2
1
1
2
0
1
-50
1
2
1
97
1
2
1
0
1
1
2
12
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
-100
-150
-150
-200
384
MCM
MCM
288
1
1
2
1
2
193
)Time (Month
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
97
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
300
Graph for Agricultural Shortage
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
0
384
1
2
1
1
2
12
288
2
2
1
2
193
)Time (Month
Graph for Water Shortage
1
1
1
200
Total Water Supply : BAU 1
Total Water Supply : scenario4
1
1
400
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
50
2
193
)Time (Month
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
100
1
2
1
2
2
500
-200
1
384
Water Shortage : BAU
Water Shortage : scenario4
MCM
MCM
288
1
1
2
1
2
193
)Time (Month
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
97
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
Agricultural Shortage : BAU
Agricultural Shortage : scenario4
ﺷﮑﻞ -9رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب ،ذﺧﺎﯾﺮ ﭼﺎه ﻧﯿﻤﻪ ،ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب و ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﮐﺸﺎورزي در .Scenario 4
Figure 9. Behavior of water supply variables, semi-well reserves, water scarcity and agricultural scarcity in
Scenario 4.
ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮي
در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ،ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ
ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي آﯾﻨﺪه اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ .ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﻞ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ در
ﺳﺎل 1410از 1350/01ﺑﻪ 1515/93ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن
زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎي ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ ،ﮐﺸﺎورزي ،اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و
ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ وﺟﻮد ﮐﺎﻫﺶ
اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ ،ﻋﺮﺿﻪ و ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب و زﯾﺴﺖﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ
ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﻏﯿﺮﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ .ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ
ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ،ﻣﺪﻟﯽ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﭘﻮﯾﺎﯾﯽ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ
در ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻫﺎ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﺷﺮب ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ
ﮔﺴﺘﺮش داده ﺷﺪ .در اﯾﻦ روﯾﮑﺮد ،رواﺑﻂ و ﺑﺎزﺧﻮرد
ﺑﻮد .ﺑﻪﻋﻠﺖ اﻓﺖ ﻗﺎﺑﻞﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﺗﺮاز آب ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪﻫﺎ در
ﻣﯿﺎن ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در زﯾﺮﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻤﻮدار
ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻪﻋﻠﺖ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ ،اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺ
ذﺧﯿﺮه و ﺟﺮﯾﺎن ﺑﯿﺎن ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه ﺷﺪ .ﻣﺪل ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ
در ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از ﻣﺨﺎزن ﭼﺎهﻧﯿﻤﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﯿﺎز ﺷﺮب داده
اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از آزﻣﻮن ﺗﮑﺮار رﻓﺘﺎر ﮐﺎﻟﯿﺒﺮاﺳﯿﻮن و
ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي
ﺻﺤﺖﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺷﺪ .ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه از آزﻣﻮن ﻧﺸﺎن
ﻣﺼﺮفﮐﻨﻨﺪه در ﻃﯽ ﻣﺎهﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪ.
داد ﮐﻪ ﻣﺪل ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪه ،ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ و رﻓﺘﺎر ﻗﺎﺑﻞﻗﺒﻮل ﺑﺎ
ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ
ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪات واﻗﻌﯽ داده اﺳﺖ.
در ﺣﺪود 80درﺻﺪ ﮐﻞ ﮐﻤﺒﻮدﻫﺎ را ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ.
ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ،ﻣﻘﺎدﯾﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺮاي
ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﻣﺮداﻧﯽ و
ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ،ﺷﺮب و ﻣﺤﯿﻂ زﯾﺴﺖ در
ﻣﺎرﯾﻨﻮ ) ،(2009ﮐﻮﯾﯿﻦ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران ) ،(2011داﯾﯽ و
39
ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ ) ،(28ﺷﻤﺎره )1400 (1
ﻫﻤﮑﺎران ) ،(2013ﺣﺴﯿﻨﯽ و ﺑﺎﻗﺮي )،(2014
ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪه ،ﺷﺎﻣﻞ راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري
رﺣﯿﻤﯽﺧﻮب و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران ) ،(2016ﻣﻬﺮآذر و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
70درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت
) ،(2017ﭘﯿﺶﺑﻬﺎر و رﺣﯿﻤﯽ ) ،(2018اﯾﮑﺴﻮ و
آب )ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺒﺨﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان (%50در ﺣﻮزه ﻫﯿﺮﻣﻨﺪ
ﻫﻤﮑﺎران ) ،(2017ﮐﻮﺗﯿﺮ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران ) ،(2017ژاﻧﮓ و
ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ .ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه
ﻫﻤﮑﺎران ) ،(2017ﭘﻠﻮﭼﯿﻨﻮﺗﺎ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )،(2018
ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد ﮐﻪ ﻫﺮ ﯾﮏ از اﯾﻦ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎ ،ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ
ژاﻧﮓ و ﺷﺎﺋﻮ ) (2018و ﺳﻮﻧﮏ و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران )،(2018
ﮐﻤﺒﻮد آب در ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد وﻟﯽ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ
) 26و (27ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري و
در ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي اول )راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري 70درﺻﺪ در ﺑﺨﺶ
ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﺑﻬﺮهوري
ﮐﺸﺎورزي( ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .در ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ اول ،ﻣﻘﺪار
آب ،ﻣﺆﺛﺮﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﺑﺰار ﺑﺮاي ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺖ از ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﺮﯾﻊ
ﮐﻤﺒﻮد ﮐﻠﯽ در ﺳﺎل 1410ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ 196
اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻂزﯾﺴﺖ
ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ .در ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ دوم،
اﺳﺖ .ﺑﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس ،اراﺋﻪ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ در
ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﺎﻫﺶ 1/9ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻣﺘﺮﻣﮑﻌﺐ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ .ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ
راﺳﺘﺎي ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻠﻔﺎت آب در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي و در
اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ راﻧﺪﻣﺎن ﻧﯿﺰ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺧﻮﺑﯽ را در ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﮐﻤﺒﻮدﻫﺎ
ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي آب در اﯾﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ،اﻫﻤﯿﺖ
ﻧﺸﺎن داده اﺳﺖ.
ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮي ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ.
ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ اداﻣﻪ روﻧﺪ ﻣﺼﺮف ﻓﻌﻠﯽ و
ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮ و ﺗﺸﮑﺮ
ﺑﺪﯾﻦوﺳﯿﻠﻪ ﻧﻮﯾﺴﻨﺪﮔﺎن از داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و
اﺛﺮات ﺟﺒﺮانﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮي در ﭘﯽ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ .در
ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﻪ اﻣﮑﺎﻧﺎت ﻻزم ﺑﺮاي اﻧﺠﺎم اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ را
ﺑﻪ ﺗﺒﻊ آن اداﻣﻪ ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﺑﺎ ﻫﻤﯿﻦ روﻧﺪ،
ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﮐﺮد ﮐﻤﺎل ﺗﺸﮑﺮ و ﺳﭙﺎس را دارﻧﺪ.
اﯾﻦ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي ﻣﺼﺮف ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪ در ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎي
ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ،رﻋﺎﯾﺖ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺣﺪي و ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮓﺳﺎزي ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ
دادهﻫﺎ و اﻃﻼﻋﺎت
دادهﻫﺎ و اﻃﻼﻋﺎت اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ از رﺳﺎﻟﻪ دﮐﺘﺮي
ﺑﺮ ﻋﺪم اﺳﺮاف ﺟﺰو ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪي در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﺤﺮان
ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ و ﯾﮑﯽ از اﺳﺎﺳﯽ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﭘﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ
ﻧﻮﯾﺴﻨﺪه اول ﮐﻪ در داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺎن و ﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎن در
ﻣﺼﺮف ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ.
ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1399 -1397اﺟﺮا ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج
ﺑﺮاي روﯾﺎروﯾﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﯽ و ﺑﺎزﻧﮕﺮي در
ﮔﺮدﯾﺪه اﺳﺖ.
ﻣﺼﺎرف ﻣﺨﺎزن ﺑﺎﯾﺪ راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﭘﯿﺪا ﮐﺮد .ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ
رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﺪل ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ ﻧﮕﺮش
ﺗﻌﺎرض ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ
در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺗﻌﺎرض ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻌﯽ وﺟﻮد ﻧﺪارد و اﯾﻦ
ﮐﺎﻣﻠﯽ را از ﻃﺒﯿﻌﺖ ﭘﻮﯾﺎي آن ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ .اﯾﻦ
ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ در دو ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺑﻪ اﻧﺠﺎم رﺳﯿﺪه اﺳﺖ.
ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﺗﺄﯾﯿﺪ ﻫﻤﻪ ﻧﻮﯾﺴﻨﺪﮔﺎن اﺳﺖ.
راﻫﮑﺎرﻫﺎي ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎدي ﺑﺎﯾﺪ ﺿﻤﻦ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ اﺟﺮا ﺑﻮدن،
ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ را ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮﻟﯽ در ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎزﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺳﺎﻧﺪ.
40
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ﻧﺪا ﻋﻠﯽاﺣﻤﺪي و ﻫﻤﮑﺎران
Research Full Paper
J. of Water and Soil Conservation, Vol. 28(1), 2021
http://jwsc.gau.ac.ir
DOI: 10.22069/jwsc.2021.18451.3402
Simulation and Dynamics of Hirmand Basin Water Resources
System under management scenarios
N. Ali Ahmadi1, E. Moradi*2, S.M. Hosseini2 and A. Sardar Shahraki2
1
2
Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan,
Assistant Prof., Dept. of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan
Received: 10.10.2020; Accepted: 02.22.2021
Abstract1
Background and Objectives: One of the most important issues for mankind in the present century
is access to water resources. Increasing population growth and expanding industry have made
agricultural development in arid and semi-arid regions a major challenge. The depletion of water
resources and the critical situation in the drinking, agricultural, industrial and environmental sectors
are a major problem. An essential principle is the relative balance of water supply and demand that
emerges with the creation of a comprehensive water management system.
Materials and Methods: The present study was carried out in Hirmand catchment in Sistan area,
focusing on the issue of Hirmand river flow and the volume of Chah Nimeh. In order to control the
alignment of Chah Nimeh, modeling steps were developed and the basis of the problem was
investigated in the process of forming flow-storage diagrams. Using Vensim software, the effect of
each variable was simulated on the problem and the calibration and model validation were fitted to
different methods such as statistical tests.
Results: The results of the tests show that the model corresponds to reality and the model behavior
is consistent with the behavior of the system in reality. According to the statistical tests performed,
between the observed and simulated values for the well reserves variable, the coefficient of
determination is equal to 0.84, the root mean square error (RSME) is equal to 0.25 and the
Nash-Sutcliffe criterion is equal to It is 0.77 in 2019. According to the findings, the demand for
various agricultural, drinking and environmental needs will increase in the coming years. The total
demand in 1410 will increase from 1350.01 to 1515.93 million cubic meters, which will be
impossible to meet the needs despite the reduction of system resources. The largest increase in
demand will be in the agricultural and drinking sectors.
Conclusion: The results show that the irrigation efficiency policies of 70% in the agricultural sector
and the reduction of water losses (reduction of evaporation by 50%) based on the proposed scenarios
were implemented by the model. Examining the results of these scenarios, it is seen that each of
these solutions will reduce water shortage in the coming years, but the best result has been achieved
in the first scenario (70% irrigation efficiency in the agricultural sector). In general, the findings
show that the continuation of the current consumption trend and, consequently, the continued
withdrawal of water resources with the same trend, will have irreparable effects. In this situation,
modeling optimal consumption in different sectors, observing limit conditions and creating a culture
based on non-extravagance is one of the key issues in crisis management and is one of the most basic
foundations of consumption management.
Keywords: Modeling and Simulation, System Dynamics, Vensim, Water Resources Management,
Watershed
* Corresponding Author; Email: ebmoradi31@gmail.com
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ﻧﺸﺮﯾﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎي ﺣﻔﺎﻇﺖ آب و ﺧﺎك ﺟﻠﺪ ) ،(28ﺷﻤﺎره )1400 (1
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