The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police Ross Hendy Submitted for the degree of Master of Strategic Studies (M.S.S.) School of Government Victoria University of Wellington January 2012 (Typos corrected April 2012) 1 2 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy Abstract Recently there have been calls to change the New Zealand Police firearm policy so that police officers are routinely armed at all times. It is believed that an armed police force interacts in society differently from an unarmed police force and little is known about how the change to an armed force will affect the relationship between the police and the public. The purpose of this study is to identify these issues by studying comparable jurisdictions and to predict how they might alter the strategic relationship between New Zealand society and police. The police of England and Wales, Norway and Sweden were compared. Prominent themes emerged from the study. For the police-public relationship to remain functional, the police must maintain a high level of police legitimacy. Legitimacy can be affected by the manner in which the police use firearms. The use of firearms by police officers is influenced by departmental policy and their independent perception of the degree of risk they face. The main conclusions drawn from this research were that it was not likely that a barrier would emerge between the police and public nor was there likely to be a significant impact on the police’s ability to police by consent if the police become routinely armed. However routinely arming the New Zealand police might lead to a reduction in police safety as officers may be more inclined to engage in dangerous situations. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy Acknowledgements I wish to acknowledge support from New Zealand Police and the New Zealand Police Association who have assisted with this project through financial contribution towards the cost of academic fees and provision of study leave. 3 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 4 Table of Contents Abstract......................................................................................................................................2   Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................3   Abbreviations & terminology .................................................................................................6   Figures & Tables .......................................................................................................................7   Chapter 1 – Research Project..................................................................................................8   1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................8   1.2 Building the research question .................................................................................................................9   1.3 Literature search: arguments for and against routine arming ...........................................................10   The New Zealand View........................................................................................................................ 11   Other Key Sources................................................................................................................................. 12   British Literature .................................................................................................................................. 13   Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 14   1.4 Literature search: strategic theory..........................................................................................................15   The relationship between the police and the public............................................................................ 15   Strategic Theory.................................................................................................................................... 17   Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 20   1.5 Emerging Issues ........................................................................................................................................21   Chapter 2 – Research Methods.............................................................................................23   2.1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................23   2.2 Research Strategy......................................................................................................................................23   2.3 Data Collection .........................................................................................................................................25   2.4 Framework for analysis ...........................................................................................................................26   2.5 Limitations and potential problems ......................................................................................................27   Chapter 3 – Research findings: broader theory..................................................................29   3.1. Understanding policing: public and specialist policing roles ...........................................................29   3.2 Contemporary Policing Issues................................................................................................................31   Police Legitimacy & Trust.................................................................................................................... 31   Community Policing............................................................................................................................. 34   3.3 Reflections .................................................................................................................................................35   Chapter 4 – Research Findings: Case Studies.....................................................................36   4.1 Introduction to the case studies .............................................................................................................36   4.2 The Police of England and Wales ..........................................................................................................36   A history of English Policing ................................................................................................................ 36   Characteristics and challenges of modern English Policing ............................................................... 38   Use of firearms & tactical considerations ........................................................................................... 41   Threats to Police Legitimacy ................................................................................................................ 42   Emergent risk factors ............................................................................................................................ 44   4.3 The Norwegian Police – Politi- og lensmannsetaten ...........................................................................44   A brief history ....................................................................................................................................... 44   The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 5 Police Legitimacy & Policing Characteristics...................................................................................... 45   Use of firearms & tactical considerations ........................................................................................... 46   Emergent risk factors ............................................................................................................................ 50   4.4 The Swedish police – Polismyndigheten ................................................................................................50   A brief introduction.............................................................................................................................. 50   Police legitimacy ................................................................................................................................... 51   Use of Firearms & Tactical Considerations ........................................................................................ 54   Comparisons amongst other Nordic countries ................................................................................... 60   Emergent factors ................................................................................................................................... 62   4.5 Emerging Issues ........................................................................................................................................62   Perception of threat – cultural differences .......................................................................................... 62   Chapter 5 – Interpretation & Analysis ................................................................................64   5.1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................64   5.2 Interpretation............................................................................................................................................64   5.3 Threats to police legitimacy ....................................................................................................................66   Discussion ............................................................................................................................................. 66   Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 73   5.4 Threats to police safety ............................................................................................................................74   Discussion ............................................................................................................................................. 74   Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 78   5.5 Threats to public safety............................................................................................................................79   Discussion ............................................................................................................................................. 79   Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 82   Chapter 6 – Conclusions .......................................................................................................83   6.1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................83   6.2 Research objectives, Summary of findings and Conclusions .............................................................83   6.3 Recommendations....................................................................................................................................84   6.4 Reflection...................................................................................................................................................85   References................................................................................................................................86   Appendices ..............................................................................................................................93   A1. Interview Questions ................................................................................................................................93   A2. Pictures for reference ..............................................................................................................................95   The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 6 Abbreviations & terminology ARV Armed Response Vehicle CED Conductive Electronic Device (such as a TASER) CPTED Crime prevention through environmental design IPCA Independent Police Complaints Authority (New Zealand) Met. The Metropolitan Police NZPA New Zealand Police Association OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OPI Office of Police Integrity, Victoria, Australia Pepper spray Oleoresin capsicum spray (OC spray) or other sprays SbC Suicide by Cop The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 7 Figures & Tables Figure 1: Qualitative Analysis Process, source: Biggam ..................................................................................27   Figure 2: Trust in European Police Forces 2004, ranking from 0 (lowest) to 10 (highest), taken from the 2004 Corruption Perception Index published by Transparency International.................................33   Figure 3: Man with machete................................................................................................................................39   Figure 4: Attempt to subdue man.......................................................................................................................40   Figure 5: Multiple officers storm and subdue man ..........................................................................................40   Figure 6: Norwegian Police firearm incidents 1990-2007...............................................................................48   Figure 7: Annual average number of incidents where police officers in service have used firearms for threat or effective fire per million inhabitants, Denmark (1996-2006), Finland (1997-2006), Norway (1996-2006) and Sweden (1996-2004) ....................................................................................60   Figure 8: Annual average number of deaths by police shooting per million inhabitants (1996-2006) ...61   Figure 9: Factors affecting the relationship between the police and the public ...........................................65   Figure 10: Average Annual Homicide Rates 2003-2008 sourced from United Nations data (Norway, New Zealand and England do not have routinely armed police forces). ...........................................71   Figure 11: Swedish Police Officers armed with pistol......................................................................................95   Figure 12: MP5 sub-machine gun worn by an English Police officer outside Parliament, London .........95   Table 1: Summary of risk factors found in the literature search ....................................................................21   Table 2: Interviewee demographics....................................................................................................................26   Table 3: Officers present during effective fire incidents..................................................................................49   Table 4: Sweden - Average Yearly Incidents .....................................................................................................55   Table 5: Skåne Incidents - General factors ........................................................................................................56   Table 6: Skåne Incidents - Environmental factors ...........................................................................................57   Table 7: Skåne Incidents - Officer factors .........................................................................................................57   Table 8: Skåne Incidents - Offender factors ......................................................................................................58   Table 9: Risk factors affecting police legitimacy...............................................................................................65   Table 10: Risk factors affecting police safety.....................................................................................................66   Table 11: Risk factors affecting public safety ....................................................................................................66   Table 12: FBI Data of Police Officers Killed......................................................................................................77   The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 8 Chapter 1 – Research Project 1.1 Introduction New Zealand is one of four OECD countries that has a routinely unarmed police force; officers do not wear a firearm on their hip. While routinely unarmed, the New Zealand Police is an armed police force. All constabulary officers routinely carry restricted weapons, such as pepper spray, on their person. But, with the exception of police stationed at international airports, New Zealand police do not wear firearms as a matter of routine. Instead, they have the ability to draw firearms should the circumstances dictate. The other OECD countries include Britain (including the legal jurisdictions of England and Wales, and Scotland), Ireland and Norway. In 2010, the New Zealand Police Association called for routine arming of police after nine officers were shot at – two fatally – in the preceding two year period.1 Commentators, parliamentarians and the media have responded negatively to the Association’s call, suggesting that such a change would be detrimental to the relationship between the public and police.2 The objective of this research project is to gain an understanding of the likely effect of the transition to a routinely armed police force on the relationship between the public and police. The purpose of the research project is not to discuss the merits of, or need for routinely arming the New Zealand Police. Instead, it has been designed to help identify potential consequences if the police did become routinely armed. The inherent difficulty with the research project is that the majority of the world’s police are routinely armed, so there are few opportunities to observe or measure a transition from a routinely unarmed to routinely armed police force. Consequently, there is a lack of published research on the topic, despite the highly publicised debate or commentary on the matter. As a consequence the debate outlined in the first part of the literature search is mostly opinion and not directly reinforced by criminological, social or strategic study, theory, or evidence. In order to address this gap, the research considers the role of firearms in the police forces of England and Wales,3 Norway, and Sweden. The New Zealand police are not routinely armed but have access to firearms should circumstances require them. The Norwegian police are not routinely armed but carry firearms in patrol vehicles, whereas the 1 New Zealand Police Association, "Police Association Conference Calls for General Arming of Police," Police News November 2010. 2 "Arming Police Not in Public's Interest," The Dominion Post 29 August 2011, Michael Bott, The Police Arms Race (Wellington 2010), John Buttle, "The Case against Arming the Police," Rethinking Crime and Punishment (RECAP) Newsletter 2010, New Zealand Police Association, "Police Minister Collins Tells Conference: This Government Is Right Behind You," Police News December 2010, New Zealand Police Association, "Labour Lead in Hot Pursuit of Strengthening Failing to Stop Laws," Police News December 2010. 3 The policing structure in the United Kingdom is based on legal jurisdictions grouped together as: England and Wales (as one jurisdiction), Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 9 Swedish police are routinely armed. As these two Scandinavian countries are neighbours and share similar cultural backgrounds they provide an opportunity to understand why there are differences in approach in relation to arming police forces. The policing jurisdiction of England and Wales operates on a slightly different model, where only a proportion of officers may use firearms. Together, the jurisdictions of England and Wales, Norway, and Sweden provide insights as to how the relationship between the police and the public can be affected by different approaches to firearms. Information from each jurisdiction has been presented by using data from field research interviews with criminologists and police, and from published sources. This dissertation is presented in six chapters. The remainder of this chapter provides a discussion of the research and the scope of the project. It includes an overview of written sources directly relating to the topic, and arguments for and against the routine arming of police. It also looks at the strategic importance of the police and explores relevant strategic studies theory. Chapter 2 outlines the research methodology including how data was collected and analysed. It also comments on the limitations and potential problems with this research. Chapter 3 discusses the importance of police legitimacy and the public’s sense of trust in the police, and explores relevant criminological theories. This provides the contextual basis for the reader to approach the subsequent analysis. Chapter 4 presents case studies of the police forces of England and Wales, Norway, and Sweden. From here, themes and issues relating to the research question emerge. In Chapter 5, these themes and issues are grouped into risk factors that may be relevant to New Zealand, should the police become routinely armed. Risks are presented in three groups: risks to police legitimacy; risks to police safety; and risks to public safety. They are examined in terms of their effect on the police-public relationship. Chapter 6 concludes the dissertation, with a general discussion, recommendations, and reflections on the research process. 1.2 Building the research question The objective of this research project is to gain an understanding of the potential effect of the transition to a routinely armed police force, and how this might alter the relationship between the public and police in New Zealand. This examination began with two assumptions that (a) that the relationship between police and public matters and is an important part of policing in New Zealand; and (b) that there could be a change in the way that the police and public interact should the police become routinely armed. 10 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy But, what are routinely armed police? For the purpose of this thesis, the terminology is thus defined; routinely armed refers to a police officer that has immediate access to a firearm, such as a pistol in a holster, or wearing a rifle, on their person at all times whilst on duty.4 The New Zealand Police possesses firearms and has authority to provide police officers with firearms on a case-by-case basis; it is therefore an armed organisation. However, the New Zealand Police is not routinely armed: its individual officers do not have immediate access to firearms at all times. As Buttle puts it, New Zealand police officers “have a fine tradition of going amongst the public unarmed”.5 It is important to note that Buttle and some other commentators occasionally refer to arming the police and regard the New Zealand Police as being unarmed. However, the researcher takes these references to mean the routine arming of police, as the New Zealand Police is, strictly speaking, already an armed organisation. Other New Zealand law enforcement agencies, such as New Zealand Customs Service or Serious Fraud Office, do not possess firearms, and therefore are unarmed law enforcement organisations. This highlights the difference between New Zealand Police and other New Zealand law enforcement agencies; New Zealand police officers do have access to firearms but are not routinely armed. So, how this might the relationship between the public and police in New Zealand alter if the New Zealand Police became routinely armed? 1.3 Literature search: arguments for and against routine arming The debate over whether to routinely arm the New Zealand police has increased significantly over the past several years due to a series of shootings of police officers. The New Zealand Police Association is now publicly calling for armament as a response to an increase in violence directed towards police officers.6 While the issue is also being debated in Britain and Norway,7 what sets New Zealand apart is that debate has arisen as a result of a concern for police health and safety: in England and Norway, there has not been the same perceived decrease in officer safety. Debate there has arisen from the issue of capability, most prominently to be able to respond to increasingly violent terrorist incidents and the effects of migration of Eastern-European organised crime.8 4 Johannes Knutsson, "Police Use of Firearms in the Nordic Countries," Police Use of Force : A Global Perspective, eds. Joseph B. Kuhns and Johannes Knutsson (Santa Barbara, Calif. ; Oxford: Praeger, 2010). 5 Buttle, "The Case against Arming the Police." 6 New Zealand Police Association, Towards a Safer New Zealand: Police and Law & Order Policies for the Future (Wellington: New Zealand Police Association,, 2011). 7 Nina Berglund, "Police Don't Want to Bear Arms," Views and News from Norway 13 October 2011. 8 Maurice Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force (Bristol: Policy Press, 2011). The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 11 THE NEW ZEALAND VIEW There has been relatively little research undertaken in New Zealand in response to the 2010 call from the New Zealand Police Association to routinely arm the police. Generally, the public response has been negative.9 There are two recent, unpublished papers that encapsulate the commonly expressed reasons against the routine arming of the New Zealand Police. Auckland criminologist John Buttle and Wellington human rights advocate Michael Bott both present their arguments in response to the 2010 call from the New Zealand Police Association. Buttle raises four arguments against routine arming: it will negatively impact on the police’s ability to ‘police by consent’; it is unnecessary because the police environment is no less safe than other vocations; it would create an increased danger to the public through an increase in the number of unlawful deaths or through police error; and it will lead to a unnecessary increase in the weaponisation of the police.10 Buttle’s paper has not been published as either a journal article or text, however it does draw upon references from the writings of Ingleton, Knutsson, Reiner, and Waddington (some of which are explored later in this chapter).11 The majority of his arguments are drawn from parallels from his previous research into the use of pepper sprays in England.12 He raises a number of concerns, some of which are explored in more detail in this dissertation, such as the concern that an increase in the availability of firearms to police will inevitably lead to an increase of shootings.13 However, one concern appears less sound and is addressed briefly below. Buttle states that if police should be armed, then so should other unsafe professions such as taxi drivers. He argues that, like the police, taxi drivers also deal with intoxicated people and have recently seen a ‘visible’ decrease in workplace safety. But, as we would not contemplate routinely arming taxi drivers we ought not to arm the police. This argument fails to take into account the fact taxi drivers are not employed nor empowered to function as guardians of public safety. It suggests a fundamental lack of knowledge of the role and purpose of policing. The opinions of Bott come from a similar position to that of Buttle and highlight a commonly expressed concern; that arming the police will harm the relationship between the police and the public.14 In total Bott identifies six issues, two of which are consistent with Buttle: arming will negatively affect the police’s ability to ‘police by consent’; and arming will increase the rate of unlawful shootings by police. Other arguments include concerns that arming police will lead to an inevitable arms race with criminals; that police themselves will 9 "Arming Police Not in Public's Interest." Buttle, "The Case against Arming the Police." 11 Roy D. Ingleton, Arming the British Police : The Great Debate (London: Frank Cass, 1997), Robert Reiner, The Politics of the Police, 3rd ed. (New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press, 2000). 12 John Buttle, "The Shift from Defensive to Offensive Policing: Cs Spray and the Use of Force," University of Wales, 2005. 13 Buttle, "The Case against Arming the Police." 14 Bott, The Police Arms Race. 10 12 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy become victims of shooting by their own firearms; that arming with a pistol will not make police safer as most criminals who use firearms will use a rifle or shotgun; and that arming will reduce police safety by encouraging an increased sense of capability to confront an armed opponent, in contrast to the current tactic of withdraw, cordon and contain for armed specialists to control. Like Buttle’s, Bott’s paper is not published nor are his opinions referenced or linked to relevant theories. Despite this both Bott and Buttle provide a useful starting point for helping to identify the concerns of the public in New Zealand. OTHER KEY SOURCES There are some other key sources that provide an insight into this debate. Australian Criminologist Rick Sarre provides insight to the question of routine arming by reflecting on how armed policing impacts on the community.15 He openly admits that his arguments are personal views and not formed on an evidenced basis, but his paper has more academic rigor that Buttle and Bott. His views are consistent with Buttle and Bott in that he considers that armed police change the manner in which the police and public interact, specifically that this practice ‘alienates’ the public from the police and negatively impacts of the process of community policing. This is a concern shared by some politicians in New Zealand. In 2008, then Green Party MP Keith Locke concluded that routine arming of the New Zealand police would be disadvantageous, because it would inevitably lead to policing styles common in America.16 Sarre’s second point is that having routinely armed police suggests that a weaponsbased response is an effective method of resolving conflict. Third, Sarre considers that arming the police encourages the belief that violence is unpredictable and random, whereas, in his view, it is not. Sarre’s views are consistent with some of the concerns expressed by Bott and Buttle; notably the importance of the relationship with the community and fear of an increase in weaponisation. However, he suggests that the majority of the Australian public and police believe that the greater number of firearms deployed by police increases the effectiveness of the police.17 It is curious to note this, especially in light of his proposition that an armed police officer can alienate the public. Could this mean that despite all the efforts of the police to embrace the community policing mantra, the latter is inconsistent with the community’s view of police effectiveness? 15 Rick Sarre, "The Public, the Police and Australian Gun Policy" Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation, Emoyeni, Johannesburg, South Africa, 9 October 1996, 1996. http://www.csvr.org.za/wits/papers/papsarre.htm. 1 May 2006 16 Keith Locke, Policing Bill - Third Reading, Parliametrary Debate. 28 August 2008. Opponents to routine arming of police forces commonly cite the myth of American policing styles in their arguments. Simon Jenkins suggests that possession of firearms by police encourages “the ‘Hollywood Cop’ police image at the expense of community policing”, see Peter Squires and Peter Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response (Chichester: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010) 106-07. Also see references to “Dirty Harry” in Charles Edwards, Changing Policing Theories for 21st Century Societies, 2nd ed. (Annandale: Federation, 2005) 171-72. 17 Sarre "The Public, the Police and Australian Gun Policy" The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 13 The concerns expressed by Bott, Buttle and Sarre suggest a number of starting points for research. First, it seems that their arguments are based on the supposition that the police exist to serve the community. One could see how this might be construed, given the New Zealand Police’s Strategic Plan. This clearly states the Police vision statement of “Safer Communities Together”18 and mission statement of “To be a world class Police service working in partnership with citizens and communities to prevent crime.”19 Yet the constabulary oath swears allegiance to the sovereign – not the community – as well as to keep the peace, to prevent offences against the peace and perform the duties of the office according to law.20 This is commonplace throughout similar Anglo-Saxon constitutional monarchy jurisdictions, such as England, where much of New Zealand’s constitutional and legal framework originated. It is therefore very important to establish the function of the police and whom they represent. The second point is the presumption that once police become routinely armed with firearms they will then become lethally armed. This is a commonly held belief even among members of parliament as former MP Dail Jones remarked in 2008.21 However it should be noted that the New Zealand Police are already routinely lethally armed; in New Zealand, police are trained in carotid hold lateral vascular neck restraint techniques, and carry expandable batons, which can be lethal if used near the neck or head.22 In addition, pepper spray was introduced into New Zealand in 1997, stab resistant body armour in 2007, and tasers in 2008.23 BRITISH LITERATURE Two recent texts summarise a number of key concerns about police use of firearms in England. Maurice Punch looks at the question of whether a police force should be armed at all.24 He suggests is that it is inevitable that in an unarmed police jurisdiction there will be less criminal violence, less armed violence aimed towards the police, and fewer mistakes made by police with firearms.25 In a routinely armed jurisdiction, there will be more fatal accidents caused by police through friendly fire incidents or the death of innocent bystanders. In New 18 New Zealand Police, Policing with Confidence, the New Zealand Way: Strategic Plan 2010 (Wellington: New Zealand Police,, 2005), 1. 19 Ibid. 20 Policing Act, No 72 (2008) 21 Dail Jones, Parliametrary Debate. 26 October 2008 22 New Zealand Police, Recruit Defensive Tactics Training (Wellington: The Royal New Zealand Police College, 2006). 23 Marita Broadstock, What Is the Safety of "Pepper Spray" Use by Law Enforcement or Mental Health Service Staff? (2002), Jane Archibald, Extension to Roll-out Dates of Stab Resistant Body Armour, 2007, New Zealand Police, Available: https://www.police.govt.nz/news/release/2817.html, 1 August 2011, Patrick Gower, "Broad Confirms Taser Introduction," New Zealand Herald 28 August 2008. 24 Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force. 25 This assumption is based on the authors interpretation of data from Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response., in that Norwegian police officers were in fact safer than their Swedish counterparts. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 14 Zealand, the call for routine arming has arisen to address the safety of police officers – referred to by Squires as the ‘health and safety’ agenda.26 Punch’s claim leads to the conundrum of which of the two costs is likely to be a greater risk: the deaths of unarmed police officers where they might have survived if armed, or deaths of innocent people as a result of police error. Punch also provides an important insight into the perception of fear experienced by police officers. This arises out of a discussion about the practicalities of disarming a routinely armed police force, where he notes that police officers feel safer with a firearm on their belt.27 He also discusses the views of Skolnick when it comes to danger: A central tenet of the police occupational culture everywhere rests on the perception that danger is an inherent part of the police officer’s world; and it is unpredictable where and when an officer may face violence – and from whom.28 On the face of it, this is a compelling reason to provide police officers with any and all forms of protection they might desire to mitigate unforeseen and unpredictable risks. However the quote discusses the perception of risk as opposed to actual risk. This is important; the perception of risk becomes a determinant of any given police response to an incident. Peter Squires and Peter Kennison look at the contemporary British environment.29 Most significantly, they challenge the view that British Police are unarmed. They look at the history of use of firearms by the police in England and Wales including the fatal Stockwell shooting of Jean Charles de Menezes and remind us that the police of England and Wales, despite the nostalgia, are not unarmed – they are semi-armed.30 This is the same for the New Zealand Police. The forces of New Zealand, and England and Wales have steadily become increasingly armed; only a small proportion of British police are firearms trained unlike the New Zealand police where all officers are trained. CONCLUSION The literature search proved a useful starting point for further discussion. It shows that there is not a great deal of research on the risks of routine arming police in New Zealand. While there have been some responses to the New Zealand Police Association’s call for routine arming, they have been largely based on conjecture. Notwithstanding this, there are broad themes or concerns emerging as a result of the debate, including a view that the routine 26 Interviewee 22, Personal Interview. 1 July 2011 Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force 71. 28 Jerome Herbert Skolnick, Justice without Trial: Law Enforcement in Democratic Society (New York, etc.: John Wiley & Sons, 1966)., cited in Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force 71. 29 Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response. 30 Ibid. 27 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 15 arming of police would distance the police and the public from each other. 1.4 Literature search: strategic theory This section focuses on the nature of the relationship between the police and public. The strategic nature of the relationship can be understood in two, equally useful ways; that the role of policing is significantly important within society, and therefore strategically important to the maintenance of modern society; and that as police are authorised to utilise force, their actions can be viewed in terms of a strategic studies context, in particular utilising existing military strategic theory. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE POLICE AND THE PUBLIC There are numerous sources devoted to police theory, highlighting the importance of policing in society. Alan Wright provides a useful set of comparative policing models (civil police, state police, quasi-military police, and martial law)31 which helps to qualify the degree of military involvement in policing. Authors such as David Bayley,32 Robert Reiner,33 and P.A.J. Waddington,34 are particularly instructive sources on police function throughout history and the evolution of police in western societies. Their common view is that relationships between the police and public can vary even in countries with similar constitutional histories. For instance, in 1829 Sir Robert Peel established London’s Metropolitan Police under the guise of the ‘modern police’. This was a significant turning point in policing history; Peel created a specialised civilian police force separate from the military in structure and appearance. Yet, Peel’s police of England and Wales differed from the colonial police forces of Australia, India, Ireland, and New Zealand (the last managed as an extension of the colonial New South Wales police).35 Like European gendarmeries, these colonial police forces had a military function to maintain order over a conquered territory which is clearly at odds with policing in ‘free’ England and Wales. This distinction is still evident today; compare the policing styles of New Zealand with that of Northern Ireland, both descendents of British policing traditions. In Northern Ireland, during 1970-2000, police worked closely with intelligence agencies and the 31 Alan Wright, Policing : An Introduction to Concepts and Practice (Cullompton: Willan, 2002). David H. Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis, Crime, Law, and Deviance Series (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 1985). 33 Robert Reiner, The Politics of the Police, 4th ed. (New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press, 2010). 34 P.A.J. Waddington, Policing Citizens : Authority and Rights (London: UCL Press, 1999). 35 Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis, Reiner, The Politics of the Police, Waddington, Policing Citizens : Authority and Rights. 32 16 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy military to suppress terrorism originating from the republican movement.36 As a consequence, policing in Northern Ireland by the Royal Ulster Constabulary became highly militarised, evidenced in a highly armed police operating in armoured patrol vehicles, tactics still used today by the Police Service of Northern Ireland (the RUC’s successor).37 The New Zealand police, on the other hand, are highly civilianised and do not patrol in armoured vehicles. Thus, while police have power over the public in any state, the amount of power will vary according to individual countries’ national needs, priorities and histories. Regardless of the degree of power the police have, they stand apart from most other branches of government in that police officers are empowered to use force in order to fulfil their mandate. Some other government agencies have limited enforcement powers, such as customs, immigration or correctional officers, but it is the police who are empowered to use force in their day-to-day dealings with the public. Egon Bittner most eloquently outlines this: What the existence of police makes available in society is a unique and powerful capacity to cope with all kinds of emergencies … rushing to the scene of any crisis whatever, judging its needs in accordance with canons of common sense reasoning, and imposing solutions upon it without regard to resistance or opposition. In all this they act largely as individual practitioners of a craft …. The policeman, and the policeman alone, is equipped, entitled and required to deal with every exigency in which force may have to be used to meet it.38 Bittner’s view is extensively referenced in modern texts on police practice and widely accepted as an instructive view of the police function.39 Jones takes Bittner’s view one step further; while Bittner considers force in a physical sense Jones argues that police use of force extends to non-contact force.40 Described as ‘physical constraints policing’ he shows how non-contact tactics such as police cordons, police skirmish lines or even physically moving barriers, are used by police to prevent movement.41 No other agency has the widespread power or mandate to control the public through the use of force as the police do. While Bittner articulates the niceness factor of policing, that the police officer is there to help, to intervene, to ‘save the day’, Waddington reminds us that policing can be viewed as an exercise of state control of the population.42 While those living in free democratic states 36 David John Smith, "New Challenges to Police Legitimacy," Transformations of Policing, eds. David John Smith and Alistair Henry (Aldershot: Ashgate, 2007). 37 Street Wars, Raw Cut TV, 2005. 38 Egon Bittner, "Florence Nightingale in Pursuit of Willie Sutton: A Theory of the Police," Policing Key Readings, ed. Tim Newburn (Devon: Willan Publishing, 1974) 35. 39 Waddington, Policing Citizens : Authority and Rights. 40 Richard Jones, "The Architecture of Policing: Towards a New Theoretical Model of the Role of Constraint-Based Compliance in Policing," Transformations of Policing, eds. David John Smith and Alistair Henry (Aldershot: Ashgate, 2007). 41 Ibid. 42 Waddington, Policing Citizens : Authority and Rights. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 17 may balk at this, consider the writings of Belur. She comments that the size of the population of India requires the state to maintain control to keep order.43 However, while the police have the potential to use force they don’t always exercise their right to use it.44 It is this discretionary characteristic that differentiates police from the rank-and-file subordinated systems of a disciplined military. It is the role of the police, therefore, to balance the conflict between maintaining social order and enforcing the law. On the one hand, the police are deployed, they need to maintain a functional working relationship with the public to keep the peace and maintain social order. On the other hand, they also must exercise authority to enforce the law. This can lead to difficulties. For example, at a neighbourhood ruckus, such as a loud gathering of people socialising at 3am, the role of the police in this case is to appeal to the homeowner to ‘rein in’ the party. The owner agrees based on the manner in which the police have proposed the request or if they have built sufficient rapport. The next day, the police find evidence that the same person is involved in a burglary and arrest him. It is this dichotomy that characterises the difficulty of the relationship between the police and the public. The police, therefore, have very important roles to fill in society, but are they strategically important? Mark Neocleous provides a useful insight, quoting an observation of English rule of India by James Fitzjames Stephens in 1883, that “the English in India are the representatives of peace compelled by force”.45 Neocleous explains, “the peace of civilisation involves the transformation rather than elimination of violence”.46 In other words, the people delegate their ‘use of force’ to the state. This is consistent with social contract theory; the public delegate to the state their right to use violence in the same manner as they delegate other rights to the state to form government.47 Moll discusses this link in an exploration of police ethics and legitimacy.48 STRATEGIC THEORY The use of force is a much-studied topic in the fields of criminological and strategic studies; criminology tends to view the world in terms of police and crime, while the strategic studies discipline focuses on the science of military conflict and war. In terms of criminology, most focus is on police use of force in terms of police legitimacy, excessive force and specialist 43 Jyoti Belur, Permission to Shoot? : Police Use of Deadly Force in Democracies (New York: Springer, 2010), Interviewee 21, Personal Interview. 30 June 2011 44 Waddington, Policing Citizens : Authority and Rights. 45 Mark Neocleous, "The Police of Civilization: The War on Terror as Civilizing Offensive," International Political Sociology 5.2 (2011). 46 Ibid. 47 Monica Moll, Improving American Police Ethics Training: Focusing on Social Contract Theory and Constitutional Principles (Urbana, I.L.: Forum on Public Policy, 2006). 48 Ibid. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 18 tactics. While instructive from a tactical perspective criminologists tend not to address the strategic aspect of use of force. In contrast, the discussion of military use of force provides a conceptual framework to understand the effect of force in competitive environments, such as between two warring parties, or how the coercive potential use of force can prevent the actual use of force (such as the Cold War). Freedman outlines Michael Howard’s discussion of the strategic approach (first published in 1968) in an essay looking at power in the strategic environment. He begins his discussion with Howard’s definition: The strategic approach is … one which takes account of the part played by force, or the threat of force in the international system. It is descriptive in so far as it analyses the extent to which political units have the capacity to use, or to threaten the use of armed force to impose their will on other units; whether to compel them to do some things, to deter them from doing others, or if need be to destroy them as independent communities altogether.49 This definition is instructive, especially in terms of drawing comparisons, or assessing the usefulness of applying strategic studies thinking to the research question. Like Bittner, Howard considers the utility of the use of force, and threat of force.50 Freedman observes that power obviates the need to use force in order for the sub-ordinate actor to yield to the superordinate.51 He also goes on to state that ‘strategic power’ becomes a ‘coercive capacity’, which is the “the capacity to use violence for the protection, enforcement or extension of authority.”52 While there is an obvious link between Bittner and Freedman, the convergence of the military and the police function is a politically charged topic. As previously discussed, most Anglo-Saxon societies have separated the military and police functions to create a civilianised police.53 Nevertheless, policing and military functions are blurring. Greener looks at the blurring of police and military functions in unstable states such as the military ‘peacekeeping roles’ mandated by the United Nations at the end of the 20th Century, and international deployment of one nation’s police force into another, such as the RAMSI deployment in the Solomon Islands: 49 Michael Howard, Causes of Wars : And Other Essays, 2nd ed. (London: Temple Smith Ltd, 1983)., cited in Lawrence Freedman, "Srategic Studies and the Problem of Power," Strategic Studies: A Reader, eds. Thomas G. Mahnken and Joseph A. Maiolo (Oxford: Routledge, 2008) 22. 50 One must remember, however, that a military operation has the potential to result in destruction of an object, as outlined by Howard. This is not the general case in policing; the goal would be removal of the opponent from the environment, except in the direst of circumstances. 51 Freedman, "Srategic Studies and the Problem of Power." 52 Ibid., 24. 53 Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis, Reiner, The Politics of the Police. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 19 …[I]n terms of more conceptual differences, the military are very much agents of the government whilst police are primarily agents of the courts and the law. Thus although the military is an instrument for furthering the external political and strategic goals of the day, police forces are in and of themselves an actual physical and conceptual embodiment of the political and social values of each society.54 Notwithstanding these differences, the police and military both have the ability to legitimately use force within their day-to-day operations. Salt and Smith explore this link and consider how Clausewitzian theory can be applied to policing environment.55 They observe parallels in Clausewitz’s discussion of the utility of coercive force with the views of Bittner. While the degree of utility differs – the military utilises the principle of maximisation of force where the police adopt the principle of the minimisation of force56 – they show a clear link in the thinking that both the military and police can use their coercive potential as a deterrent and a modifier of behaviour. Mawby and Wright refer to this as the “paradox of police governance”57 which is considered here by Alphert and Dunham: There is one profession in the Western society … that has not only retained the right to use physical force against its citizens, but has its members trained and encouraged to do so. The police are prepared to use force on a daily basis and while there may be considerable pressure to limit and restrict the use of force by the police against citizens, no one is calling for them to abandon its use. Indeed it would be unconscionable to make such a demand.58 Despite the level of force used (or threatened to be used) the coercive potential is a shared element of military and police operations. However, the level of force used has to be proportionate to the level of opposition proposed. If the level becomes disproportionate, then the legitimacy can be called into question. This is an issue addressed by Fisher. He observed, in America, an increasingly reliance by police on paramilitarised police units, such as SWAT teams, since the late 1960s.59 This is rooted in the increasing perception of danger in executing drug search warrants, as well as terrorist threats. Fisher’s concern is that this type of policing results in threats to police legitimacy through the display and deployment of excessive force.60 A decline of legitimacy will alter the police-public relationship in a way that would not affect a military encounter.61 54 Beth K. Greener, The New International Policing, Global Issues Series (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009) 104. James Salt and M.L.R. Smith, "Reconciling Policing and Military Objectives: Can Clausewitzian Theory Assist the Police Use of Force in the United Kingdom?," Democracy and Security 4.3 (2008). 56 Ibid. 57 Rob Mawby and Alan Wright, Police Accountability on the United Kingdom (Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative, 2004). 58 Geoffrey P. Alpert and Roger G. Dunham, Understanding Police Use of Force : Officers, Suspects, and Reciprocity (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004). 59 Jim Fisher, Swat Madness and the Militarization of the American Police: A National Dilemma (Santa Barbara: Praeger, 2010). 60 Ibid. 61 Alpert and Dunham, Understanding Police Use of Force : Officers, Suspects, and Reciprocity. 55 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 20 Bittner, Alphert and Dunham consider the coercive potential of police ability to use force in terms of a specific event or incident. However Salt and Smith, like Waddington, take a broader view that the police’s primary concern is the rule of law that governs the affairs of the state62 and therefore the police use of force is to control society: ‘the activity of policing represents the means by which to achieve the political end, and since the police institution is designated by the state for this purpose, the police subsequently constitute the strategic means’.63 Once again, this encourages consideration of the role of the police in society and raises the question of who ‘owns’ the police. Are the police appointed by society, through a social contract, to regulate society64 or do the police regulate society on behalf of the sovereign?65 The birth of Peel’s new police in London of the 19th Century was clearly a delegation of power and became the policing model in other free states such as in New Zealand (after the dissolution of the armed constabulary in 1878).66 The reverse can be seen in the colonial policing of Northern Ireland, India and other colonies, where law was imposed over a conquered populace. Salt and Smith, like Moll, describe the effect of the former as a social contract between the state and the individual: the individual exchanges liberty in exchange for freedom and security67 and provided that the police do not exceed their ambit, the individual consents to be policed. The minimum use of force, and other measures of acceptability, form police legitimacy. CONCLUSION The literature indicates the different roles that the military and police have in society. Both have a legitimate right to use coercive force to achieve their objectives. The relationship between the police and public is of strategic importance; in strong democratic states, the social contract between citizenry and government relies on the consent of the public to be policed. 62 Salt and Smith, "Reconciling Policing and Military Objectives: Can Clausewitzian Theory Assist the Police Use of Force in the United Kingdom?," 227. 63 Ibid. 64 Moll, Improving American Police Ethics Training: Focusing on Social Contract Theory and Constitutional Principles. 65 Waddington, Policing Citizens : Authority and Rights. 66 Dilip K. Das and Michael Palmiotto, Policing in Canada, India, Germany, Australia, Finland, and New Zealand : A Comparative Research Study (Lewiston, N.Y. ; Lampeter: Edwin Mellen Press, 2005). 67 Salt and Smith, "Reconciling Policing and Military Objectives: Can Clausewitzian Theory Assist the Police Use of Force in the United Kingdom?," 226. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 21 1.5 Emerging Issues While the literature is mostly silent on how a transition to a routinely armed police force might effect the police-public relationship, there are a number of strongly expressed concerns that suggest it would have a negative effect. The views of Bott, Buttle and Sarre in particular provide a useful starting point to explore how people think the relationship between the public and police might change. These issues are listed below in Table 1. Table 1: Summary of risk factors found in the literature search ISSUE SOURCE Routine arming will negatively impact on the police’s ability to ‘police by consent’; Buttle, Bott Frustration of process of community policing rather than policing by consent; Sarre The drive for arming has come from the NZ Police Association on the basis that policing has become less safe, but this is not the case, the environment is no less safe than other work environments; Buttle An increased danger to the public through an increased number of unlawful deaths (police mistakes); Buttle, Bott, Punch Arming leads to a unnecessary increase in weaponisation of the police; Buttle Arming leads to an inevitable arms race with those who oppose the police; Bott Police themselves will become victims of shooting by their own weapon; Bott Arming with a pistol will not make police safer as most criminals who use firearms will use a rifle or shotgun; Bott Arming will give the officer an increase sense of capability to confront an armed opponent in contrast to the current NZ; Bott Routinely armed police suggests that weapons-based response is an effective method of resolving conflict; Sarre Arming encourages the belief that violence is unpredictable and random, where in his view, it is not. Sarre Several issues have emerged through the literature that may help to clarify the dynamics of the police-public relationship. The first is to explore the role of the police. While there is a consistent view that the police have a controlling function in society, there is a range of views as to whom the police ultimately act for. The police could exist to serve society by controlling the population for the benefit of society or it could purely control society for the benefit of the state or sovereign. An understanding of police legitimacy and how the public consents to being policed would be useful to this discussion. The second is to further understand the similarities, and differences, between the police and the military. Both institutions rely on force to achieve their objectives yet use force to differing degrees. However, there was been a blurring of roles in over the past 30 years. The military has become increasingly involved in civil policing, through ‘peace-keeping’ missions. The police have become increasingly militarised in civil policing, whether through the increased deployment 22 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy of militarised units such as SWAT teams to respond to violent incidents, or through the increasing number of weapons available to police officers. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 23 Chapter 2 – Research Methods 2.1 Introduction This chapter outlines the research process chosen to address how the police-public relationship might change if the New Zealand police became routinely armed. The previous chapter has established that some commentators predict that arming the police will lead to a different style of policing. There is very little empirical research in New Zealand to test these predictions. This dissertation addresses that research gap by expanding on identifiable factors and testing them through a case study approach outside of New Zealand. Norway and Sweden were selected as they offer the unique potential for comparison between unarmed and armed police (respectively) while sharing a common cultural heritage. Their policing styles are more closely aligned with Anglo-Saxon traditions than those from continental Europe.68 English Law policing (the jurisdiction of England and Wales69) was also selected for a case study; its forces are routinely unarmed and are often seen as the exemplar of unarmed policing and their forces also have a strong influence on the New Zealand Police.70 The remainder of this chapter details how the research data was collected and the theory underpinning the analysis process. It also comments on potential limitations of the research method and how these have been mitigated. 2.2 Research Strategy To address the lack of information available this dissertation sets out to identify factors that might affect the police-public relationship, assess whether they would be applicable in the New Zealand context, and measure the level of long-term risk to the police-public relationship. This approach reflects the researcher’s view that the understanding of social interaction is best explored through an interpretative perspective.71 As such, a case study method has been chosen to identify and test the research findings; to identify ‘risk factors’ and 68 Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis, Derek Lutterbeck, "Between Police and Military: The New Security Agenda and the Rise of Gendarmeries," Cooperation and Conflict 39.1 (2004). 69 The United Kingdom consists of four counties: England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Scotland and Northern Ireland have separate legal systems, and policing traditions, where England and Wales share the same legal system and policing tradition. 70 Bott, The Police Arms Race, Buttle, "The Case against Arming the Police.", Locke, Policing Bill - Third Reading, Parliametrary Debate. 71 Orlikiwski and Baroudi systemised three categories of qualitative research epistemology (in W. J. Orlikowski and J. J. Baroudi, "Studying Information Technology in Organizations: Research Approaches and Assumptions," Information Systems Research 2.1 (1991). cited by John Biggam, Succeeding with Your Master's Dissertation : A Step-by-Step Handbook (Maidenhead: McGrawHill/Open University Press, 2008). These include a positivist view, where the researcher believes that a reality exists objectively, such as an inherent truth, a critical view, where the researcher believes the reality is based on historical events and that people are consciously and unconsciously influenced by social, cultural and political circumstances, and the interpretative view that there is no one objective reality, that the world can be viewed through a variety of viewpoints and experiences. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 24 then test them to determine whether they will lead to a change in the relationship. Bailey suggests that comparative case studies, especially those focusing on cross-national study, have substantial benefits for the study of criminal justice issues.72 The researcher has chosen to define ‘risk factors’ as opinions that may risk a change to the police-public relationship but are not proven to be the case either way. For example, some of the arguments of Buttle and Bott are unsubstantiated opinion but could be indicative of change. ‘Change factors’, on the other hand, are factors that research suggests are likely to cause change. The purpose of the case studies is to explore each country, identify risk factors, and apply theory, derived from a wider literature search on relevant topics and contextualised in findings from interviewees, to determine the change factors. The choice of countries is significant to the likely benefit of the study.73 Eisenhardt recommends, “it makes sense to choose cases such as extreme situations and polar types in which the process of interest is transparently observable”.74 The comparative study Norway and Sweden fits perfectly; the Swedish police are routinely armed yet the Norwegian police are not. Case studies are considered to form part of a qualitative approach; Bell states, “that researchers adopting a qualitative perspective are more concerned to understand individuals’ perception of the world.”75 Although the factors identified by Bott, Buttle and Sarre lack the rigour of critical or evidential-based analysis, they represent the common fears of the community in an attempt to interpret the proposition. They are therefore valid as they are indicative of the public’s perception of the issue. The case study process is an appropriate process to explore these fears as they arise from both an individual’s perspective as well as representing a common viewpoint. It enables actual experience of practitioners and research of criminologists to be applied to test the common fears. The nature of the research strategy is two-fold, first to identify risk factors and second to analyse each factor’s probative value to determine if it qualifies as a change factor. The first phase of the research process included the identification of risk factors using the following: published literature specifically addressing the topic and opinion from commentators; comparative case study of policing in Norway and Sweden; and a case study of English Law policing. The choice not to survey respondents from New Zealand is deliberate. It is the researcher’s view that critical debate on this matter in New Zealand is at its infancy, unlike the case of England or Norway, and the likelihood of insight is slim. The most 72 In particular, comparative case studies allow for: (1) extending knowledge of alternative possibilities; (2); developing more powerful insights into human behaviour; (3) increasingly the likelihood of successful reform; and (4) gaining perspective on ourselves as human beings. Quoted from David H. Bayley, "Policing: The World Stage," Policing across the World : Issues for the Twenty-First Century, ed. Rob I. Mawby (London: UCL Press, 1999) 6. 73 Kathleen M. Eisenhardt, "Building Theories from Case Study Reserach," The Academy of Management Review 14.4 (1989). 74 Ibid., 537. 75 Judith Bell, Doing Your Research Project: A Guide for First-Time Researchers in Education, Health and Social Science (Maidenhead: Open University Press, 2005). The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 25 appropriate method to gain a deeper understanding of the opinions of New Zealander public would be through a quantitative survey process, which sits outside the scope of this paper. The examination and analysis of each risk factor will be presented in Chapter 5. Each risk factor is assessed on its merits to determine whether it is likely to be a change factor relevant in New Zealand and if it will affect the police-public relationship. The exploration of each issue through practical and conceptual approaches therefore brings a greater validity; a common view from both perspectives increases the probability that it is a change factor that will affect the relationship.76 2.3 Data Collection Case studies have been constructed from information gathered from available literature, and interviews with criminologists and policing practitioners in each jurisdiction.77 The value in interviewing criminologists is to gain a theoretical perspective balancing criminological theory with localised policing or crime pressures – for instance why are the Swedish police armed and the Norwegian police unarmed? The inclusion of police practitioners is equally important. Many of the risk factors identified in Chapter 1 are linked to the demeanour or actions of officers in that they may react differently when they are armed. Having a practical understanding of these issues helps to keep balance. It is also important to include practitioners’ views to avoid the study being deemed irrelevant by police. The relationship between criminologists and police is not always functional with the latter considering the former as ‘arm-chair’ critics and also with distrust.78 The case studies omit the survey of the general public for reasons of practicality; to do so would require a different study with greater resources. It is the researcher’s assumption that the survey of practitioners and criminologists will provide the opportunity to gather representative views. The planned sample size was to range from six to nine people across each jurisdiction, resulting in 18-27 participants.79 A total of 41 candidates were approached to participate in the interview process. They were identified through cited authors located during the literature search, and referrals from police unions in each jurisdiction. There was also an intention to identify activists or human rights workers however ultimately candidates from these areas did 76 Eisenhardt, "Building Theories from Case Study Reserach." Eisenhardt suggests that case studies typically consist of data collected from a variety of sources. These can include interviews, observations, questionnaires and archival searches. See ibid., 534. 78 Johannes Knutsson, "Nordic Reflections on the Dialogue of the Deaf," Police Practice and Research 11.2 (2010). 79 Initial research approval and ethics approval was sought to cover 30-45 people across five different jurisdictions. The resultant sample size was smaller due to a refinement of the research strategy, the number of jurisdictions decreased to three resulting in a target sample size of 18-27 participants. 77 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 26 not participate. Ultimately, a total of 25 participants agreed to participate. Table 2 below shows the demographic breakdown of localities and type of interviewee: Table 2: Interviewee demographics JURISDICTION SITE CRIMINOLOGISTS POLICE PRACTITIONERS COMBINED England & Wales Brighton, London, Shropshire, & Wellington (NZ) 6 7 13 Norway Oslo 3 3 6 Sweden Stockholm 1 7 8 10 17 27 The total sample size of 27 reflects that some criminologists had expertise in multiple jurisdictions. The interviews consisted of a structured interview format using a set of consistent questions for all interviewees.80 The questions were aimed at gleaning the interviewee’s personal opinions as well as their perceptions of the wider public opinion. The interview format also allowed time for free discussion, which created opportunities for exploration of related literature not directly addressing the research question. Each interview was conducted in person, in Brighton, London, Oslo, Shropshire, Stockholm, and Wellington (two English ex-patriots). They were electronically recorded to give the interview an intimate setting. Each interview was transcribed and each interviewee given the opportunity to check the transcription for accuracy. The interviews were conducted in confidence.81 Note that for many of the interviewees, English is a second language. Quotes from interviews are verbatim except where marked with square brackets. 2.4 Framework for analysis The method for analysis relied on the assumption that the likelihood of a risk factor emerging as a change factor in New Zealand will be proportionate to the existence of the problem in the test jurisdictions of England and Wales, Norway, and Sweden. It is accepted that there are cultural differences between England and Wales, New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden. However, these countries share similar policing histories which are quite distinct from those of Continental Europe or North America.82 The police of most European countries follow 80 Refer to the Appendix for the ‘proposed set of questions’ used with interviewees. The interview process was approved by the Human Ethics Committee, Victoria University of Wellington. 82 Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis, Lutterbeck, "Between Police and Military: The New Security Agenda and the Rise of Gendarmeries.", P.A.J. Waddington, "Armed and Unarmed Policing," Policing across the World, ed. Rob I. Mawby (London: UCL Press Limited, 1999). 81 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 27 gendarmerie models and are different to the traditions of liberal Anglo-Saxon policing.83 The English and Scandinavian police are similar as they have more civilian characteristics and follow the ‘policing by consent’ approach.84 Given that a number of the risk factors noted by Bott, Buttle and Sarre question the impact of routine arming on policing styles such as ‘policing by consent’, and fears of increasing militarization, it is believed that evaluating risk factors in Norwegian, Swedish and English contexts will provide a close measure of their likelihood to affect New Zealand. The qualitative analysis process used to analyse the case studies is based on the iterative approach of description, analysis and interpretation detailed by Wolcott and Biggam.85 This process suggests that raw data can be grouped into themes or groups to assist with interpretation, as Figure 1 shows below:86 !"#$%&#&%'()*+#$,-%-) ./01(-- 20$$(1&)!"#$%"&" 2034#/()!+5%+6-7 '$()&*!"&+!*$!*,)*#$ !-%)-./ '$0-&*!,)*#$%"&"$!*/+1&/ 8(-1/%9()%"&" 2!3+4$&5*6*/$"-%$ )//+*/ 7*!83!6$"-"19/)/:$ %+&(/4/(&)#5"&$)/$ 5"44*-)-. Figure 1: Qualitative Analysis Process, source: Biggam Once the data from the case studies, interviews and literature was grouped into themes it was considered in the New Zealand context. 2.5 Limitations and potential problems There are some limitations to this research method and process. The collected data is interpretative – it is the subjective views and opinions of a small group of experts. Whilst it is the researcher’s intention to use the collected data to form a representative view of the issues, there are dangers in believing that case studies can lead to the formation of valid 83 Lutterbeck, "Between Police and Military: The New Security Agenda and the Rise of Gendarmeries." Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis, Interviewee 8, Personal Interview. 17 June 2011, Knutsson, "Police Use of Firearms in the Nordic Countries.", Interviewee 3, Personal Interview. 14 June 2011 85 Harry F. Wolcott, Transforming Qualitative Data : Description, Analysis, and Interpretation (Thousand Oaks, Calif. ; London: Sage, 1994)., cited in Biggam, Succeeding with Your Master's Dissertation : A Step-by-Step Handbook, ibid. 86 Biggam, Succeeding with Your Master's Dissertation : A Step-by-Step Handbook. 84 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 28 generalisations.87 Notwithstanding, the case study approach does offer a process which can fit within the scope of this research project. A number of opinions have been collected on the same issue; this ensures that analysis is not dependant on the views only one or two respondents. In addition, there is the possibility that criticism might be levelled that the research data is biased towards police practitioners; Table 2 (p.26) shows that there are almost twice as many practitioners interviewed than criminologists. The numerical disparity is less relevant when the data is considered as a whole. When the existing literature is taken into account together with human sources there is a greater balance. There is a lack of data from human rights orientated organisations (although some criminologists identified themselves as being sympathetic to such causes) and activist groups holding negative views of the police. Seven of the 16 participants who declined to be interviewed were approached because of their affiliation with human rights organisations, such as Amnesty International. One explanation for the unwillingness to participate could be because of the researcher’s position as a serving New Zealand police officer. The case study countries do not have similar relationships with indigenous peoples as New Zealand does. For instance, the New Zealand Police features the commitment to Maori and the Treaty of Waitangi as a core value of the organisation.88 However, despite the fact that the New Zealand Police is founded on Anglo-Saxon traditions, it embraces the same ‘policing by consent’ model which influences the other case study jurisdictions.89 As such, the New Zealand Police has to be sensitive to the needs of all cultures that it polices in order to maintain and build consent. In terms of the research then, it is the researcher’s view that the level and type of ethnic diversity becomes less important than the ability for each police force to interact with the total population. It should also be noted that the field interviews in England, Norway and Sweden occurred before the tragic events in Oslo during July 2011. 87 Ibid., 167. New Zealand Police, Policing with Confidence, the New Zealand Way: Strategic Plan 2010. 89 Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis, Interviewee 8, Personal Interview, Interviewee 3, Personal Interview, Interviewee 20, Personal Interview. 28 June 2011 88 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 29 Chapter 3 – Research findings: broader theory This chapter explores a number of themes identified in the initial literature. The first section provides a background of how policing has evolved: how civilian and military traditions have shaped police characteristics. The second section explores policing in terms of legitimacy, policing by consent, and community policing. It is intended that this will provide insights for analysing the data revealed in the case studies. 3.1. Understanding policing: public and specialist policing roles Bayley understands police to mean “people authorised by a group to regulate interpersonal relations with the group through the application of force”.90 Bittner agrees, but suggests that while force does not have to be actually used or threatened to affect behaviour, it is implicit whenever the members of the police group interact with the non-police group.91 Therefore, the fact that force could be used is the motivating factor for the non-police group to acquiesce.92 The concept of policing has evolved over time, and has developed differently in different parts of the globe. Amongst western countries, the evolution can be mapped in two ways. The first is the transformation into a ‘public’ police system, when the police function becomes authorised, controlled and funded by the state. The second, specialisation, occurs at varying rates, as policing functions outweigh other functions, such as tax collection or a military function. Some of the earliest documented evidence of existence of ‘public’ police can be sourced to the Roman Empire circa 27 B.C.93 In Roman times, policing was first documented during the reign of Octavian; when he took the name Augustus he also became princeps and took charge of the civil administration of Rome from the senate.94 He created the preafectus urbi (urban prefect) and the first ‘chief of police’, the preafectus vigilium, to police Rome, paid directly by the state. After the fall of the Roman Empire, the functions and administration of policing were increasingly delegated away from state control and funding.95 The English created decentralised police officials, including sheriffs, constables and justices of the peace. The ‘sheriff’ was a public police official, created by the Norman kings in the 12th century. It acted on behalf of the sovereign, but was funded indirectly through an appropriation of moneys 90 Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis 7. Bittner, "Florence Nightingale in Pursuit of Willie Sutton: A Theory of the Police." 92 Ibid. 93 Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis. 94 Ibid. 95 Ibid. 91 30 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy collected in the king’s name.96 By 1285, the ‘constable’ had been established under the feudal ‘Frankplegde’ system (where households were collectively responsible for paying a surety to their Lord). The constable acted as an agent of the sheriff and regulated other local functionaries. When the Frankpledge system evaporated in the 15th century, the constable took over the role of the tything-man and became accountable to the parish; elected on an annual basis and accountable to the parish justice of the peace.97 The constable remained the executive agent of law acting on behalf of the king but not funded from the royal purse.98 Policing remained decentralised in this manner until the mid-18th century. A trial was conducted in London during 1735 when several parishes were granted permission to pay the night-watch from local taxes. There are, as well, further examples of parishes and magistrates experimenting with funding systems.99 The parish system continued to evolve until the ‘modernisation’ of English policing by Peel in the 1820s. Bayley observes that the English ‘specialised’ police official was established 700 hundred years before it become ‘public’.100 This long history explains why there are strongly held views about England’s role in the importance and tradition of civilianised policing; the person fulfilling the role focuses solely on policing and is not linked to any militarised structure. This is a defining characteristic of English policing and is a point of differentiation of gendarmerie policing traditions in Continental Europe. When policing is seen as a state function separate from the military, such as in England, one can understand why there is a level of unease about increasing para-militarisation. In Anglo-Saxon countries, important constitutional rules prohibit the use of the state’s military forces in domestic affairs. Police forces do have the ability to co-opt segments of the armed forces during emergencies, most commonly natural disasters, but also for hostage negotiation and rescue.101 But care is needed when deploying military elements especially in countries with a routinely unarmed police force as for many, the firearm is a symbol or fear, control and militarization. In contrast to Anglo-Saxon policing, European policing was public far before it became specialised. For instance, the French sergeant, established around the same time as the English constable, had dual policing and military functions.102 In Scandinavia, Denmark, Norway and Sweden the lensmen was the agent who enforced laws at the local level and 96 William J. Bopp and Donald O. Schultz, A Short History of American Law Enforcement (Springfield, Ill.: Thomas, 1972)., cited in Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis. 97 Metropolitan Police, History of the Metropolitan Police, 2011, Available: http://www.met.police.uk/history/definition.htm, 9/10/2011 2011. 98 Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis. 99 Ibid. 100 Ibid. 101 Fisher, Swat Madness and the Militarization of the American Police: A National Dilemma, P.A.J. Waddington and Martin Wright, "Police Use of Guns in Unarmed Countries: The United Kingdom," Police Use of Force : A Global Perspective, eds. Joseph B. Kuhns and Johannes Knutsson (Santa Barbara: Praeger, 2010). 102 Joseph R. Strayer, On the Medieval Origins of the Modern State, A Princeton Classic Edition, 1st Princeton classic ed. (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2005)., cited in Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 31 collected taxes for the king.103 By the 18th century, European cities established their own royal police, notably with the appointment of ‘police chiefs’ in St. Petersburg in 1718, Berlin in 1742, Vienna in 1751 and Paris in 1760.104 The message is clear: western policing evolved at differing rates throughout England, Europe and Scandinavia, and forces served different functions. The absence, or removal, of the military from the maintenance of domestic order marks an important defining point for police. While the gendarmerie style became more prevalent in Europe the English maintained a civilian specialised police.105 3.2 Contemporary Policing Issues A number of the fears identified in the literature concern the impact of routine arming on police practices such as community policing. There are also suggestions that it can impact on police legitimacy and consent. The purpose of this section is to define these concepts. POLICE LEGITIMACY & TRUST Finnish researcher Juha Kääriäinen provides us with a useful way to understand the policepublic relationship through legitimacy. Kääriäinen suggests that legitimacy is a combination of public trust, and belief in the current policing system.106 Punch suggests that for the English, legitimacy can be expressed through public consent: Consent is based upon the exercise of legitimate authority and if the public doubts that legitimacy it can revoke consent.107 Legitimacy in policing does not fully rely on universal appreciation.108 A large amount of police work involves working with quarrelling parties and the nature of this process sometimes results in a resolution favouring one of the parties. Reiner suggests that legitimacy does not rely on unanimous acceptance of police decisions, but for legitimacy to exist, the majority of society must accept the lawful authority and the right of the police to do ‘what 103 Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis. Donald Eugene Emerson and Clemens Wenzeslaus Nepomuk Lothar von Prince Appendix Metternich-Winneburg, Metternich and the Political Police. Security and Subversion in the Hapsburg Monarchy, 1815-1830 (The Hague: Martinus Nijhoff, 1968), L. Radzinowicz, A History of English Criminal Law and Its Administration from 1750 (London: Stevens & Sons Limited, 1948)., cited in Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis. 105 During the first half of the 19th-Century, states increasingly adopted the gendarmerie style of policing where the military served a dual policing (domestic) and military (external) role. Bayley points to this occurring in the following countries: Prussia in 1812; Piedmont in 1816; Netherlands in 1814; Spain in 1844; and Austria in 1849. 106 Juha Tapio Kääriäinen, "Trust in the Police in 16 European Countries: A Multilevel Analysis," European Journal of Criminology 4.4 (2007), Juha Tapio Kääriäinen, "Why Do the Finns Trust the Police?," Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention 9.2 (2008). 107 Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force 183. 108 Reiner, The Politics of the Police. 104 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 32 they do’.109 Society, therefore, consents to being policed. Examples of the acceptance of policing by consent are rife within today’s popular culture: “it’s a fair cop, guv” commonplace within British gangster movies and colloquial slang.110 The ability for the police to maintain legitimacy ultimately rests with each individual police officer deployed operationally.111 Beetham provides us with a schema for understanding legitimate power: “it must conform to established rules; the rules are justified by reference to beliefs shared by both the dominant and the subordinate [parties]; and there is evidence of consent by the subordinate to the particular power relation.”112 Prior to Kääriäinen’s 2008 study of the police-public relationship in Finland, research suggested that police legitimacy could be affected by three factors: a variation in the perceived problem of crime; the visibility and proximity of the police in the community; and the quality of the policing.113 For instance, data from the USA shows that if people experience crime or feel unsafe in their own neighbourhood then there is a decreased level of trust in the police.114 Kääriäinen’s study of the Finnish police challenged this earlier research; he found that victimisation or witnessing a crime did not affect trust in the police.115 More interesting was the examination of proximity and visibility of the police. The American data, and to some extent data from Finland, indicated that this is a factor that can affect legitimacy;116 visibility increased legitimacy.117 Kääriäinen concluded that only two factors had the potential to affect the sense of Finn’s trust in the police: observing delays in police responding to emergencies or dangerous events, and perceived negative experiences or contacts with police officers.118 But Kääriäinen observed the opposite in Denmark, that the visible presence of police creates a sense of unease, that it indicates something dramatic or dangerous has or is about to occur.119 Kääriäinen’s analysis is instructive. It highlights that culture influences theory; differences between North American and Nordic policing experiences show that a theory 109 Ibid. Ibid., 69. 111 Moll, Improving American Police Ethics Training: Focusing on Social Contract Theory and Constitutional Principles. 112 David Beetham, The Legitimation of Power (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1991). cited in Brian Rappert, "Constructions of Legitimate Force. The Case of Cs Sprays," British Journal of Criminology 42.4 (2002): 692. Italicisation of consent is the researcher’s emphasis. 113 Kääriäinen, "Why Do the Finns Trust the Police?." 114 Ronald Weitzer and Steven Tuch, A, "Determinants of Public Satisfaction with the Police," Police Quarterly 8.3 (2005), In Soo Son, Chiu-Wai Tsang, Dennis M. Rome and Mark S. Davis, "Citizens’ Observations of Police Use of Excessive Force and Their Evaluation of Police Performance," Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 20.1 (1997)., cited in Kääriäinen, "Why Do the Finns Trust the Police?.", Son, Tsang, Rome and Davis, "Citizens’ Observations of Police Use of Excessive Force and Their Evaluation of Police Performance." 115 Kääriäinen, "Why Do the Finns Trust the Police?." 116 James E. Hawdon, John Ryan and Sean P. Griffin, "Policing Tactics and Perceptions of Police Legitimacy," Police Quarterly 6.4 (2003)., cited in Kääriäinen, "Why Do the Finns Trust the Police?." 117 Kääriäinen, "Why Do the Finns Trust the Police?." 118 Ibid. 119 Ibid. 110 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 33 developed from one culture is not necessarily applicable to another. It also, indirectly, challenges the broader understanding of the mission and value of community policing. Community policing relies on a cornerstone belief that the interests of the community will be served through an increase of visibility and availability for the public to engage with police officers. The Danish data contradicts this; an increase of police visibility in Denmark increases the sense of community unease. So, the Danish response might then exist in other countries, and therefore counter the value of transferring policing initiatives from one country to another. 409-436 EUC-080720.qxd 21/8/07 11:27 AM Page 419 Police legitimacy and trust can also be seen in terms of the degree of quality and lack Kääriäinen Trust in the police in 16 European countries 419 of corruption of the whole government.120 Kääriäinen draws on research from the 2004 by Eurostat is used that includes the expenditures not only of the police, judi- cial and prison systems but ranks also of thethe fire and rescue services European Social Survey European which police forcesin relation of 16toEuropean countries. the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2003 (Eurostat 2005). This is reproduced in Figure 2 below, ranking the degree of trust in the police from zero to ten Results (being the highest). It is interesting to note that Finland ranks the highest and that the Country-level observations remaining Nordic countries are at the head of the table. It is also interesting to note the low Let us first take a look at how the degree of trust in the police varies between the 16 countries under examination. Figure 1 displays the country-specific ranking of former communist countries suchtheasdegree Czech Republic means of the variable describing of trust (on a scale ofand 0–10).Poland. It shows that the top three countries standing out from the others are all Nordic countries: Finland, Denmark and Norway. Sweden, ranked fourth, belongs to the same group. Next come Central and West European countries such as Finland Denmark Norway Sweden Germany Luxembourg Austria United Kingdom Greece Spain Belgium Estonia Portugal Slovenia Poland Czech Republic 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 Figure 1 Trust in the police in 16 European countries in 2004, mean values by country. Figure 2: Trust in European Police Forces 2004, ranking from 0 (lowest) to 10 (highest), taken from the 2004 Corruption Perception Index published by Transparency International121 Downloaded from euc.sagepub.com at Victoria Univ of Wellington on November 6, 2011 Kääriäinen found a strong link between trust in the police and the level of corruption experienced in government.122 He also found a weaker link with the amount of resources invested in public safety; countries that spent less on public safety had higher levels of trust in 120 Kääriäinen, "Trust in the Police in 16 European Countries: A Multilevel Analysis." Ibid. 122 Ibid. The study utilised data from 2004 Corruption Perception Index published by Transparency International and country gross domestic product (GDB) spending from 2003 collated by Eurostat. 121 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 34 the police than those that spent more on public safety. He observed that countries that spent less on public safety tended to spend more on social or welfare services suggesting that the country’s choice reflected on their individual approach to addressing societal problems.123 Kääriäinen’s research provides several insights. The first is that research into measuring the way in which the public trust the police differs between similar cultural or geographical groups. While it might be a valid presumption that there could be differing views of North American and Nordic jurisdictions, the difference between Denmark and Finland indicates the difficulty of grouping discrete nations into ethnic or geographical groups. Second, that the trust in police is linked to a wider trust or preference for the wider government machine. This can lead to the deduction that a sense of trust or the public’s sense of police legitimacy may not just be a product of an officer-citizen transaction. COMMUNITY POLICING Often, the notions of ‘policing by consent’ and ‘community policing’ become confused. In fact, the definitions of community policing itself are ambiguous and sometimes confusing.124 Most commonly, community policing is viewed as a tool that addresses the perceived shortcomings of centralisation and mobilisation – foot patrols were replaced by vehicle patrols and smaller police stations were closed in favour of larger centralised stations. The result of the modernisation process saw a reduction of preventative foot patrolling as mobile vehicle patrols responded to calls for service.125 Community policing is therefore often associated with reintroduction of foot patrols through local communities and the reemergence of smaller community policing stations. While these changes to police deployment may make the police more visible in the communities, they only account for one part of community policing. The most important feature of community policing is the engagement of communities with police to set the police agenda.126 While this can often include settling minor neighbourhood disputes there are problem-solving techniques employed by community police officers to address broader community problems. Examples of this include ‘crime prevention through environmental design’ (CPTED) a popular technique with urban planners seeking to redesign public places to discourage crime. In essence, the community policing approach is a process for the police to work in partnership with the community to prevent crime from occurring.127 123 Ibid. Rick Sarre, "The State of Community Based Policing in Australia: Some Emerging Themes," Australian Policing : Contemporary Issues, eds. Duncan Chappell and Paul R. Wilson, 2nd ed. (Sydney: Butterworths, 1996). 125 Edwards, Changing Policing Theories for 21st Century Societies. 126 Cynthia Lum, "Community Policing or Zero Tolerance?: Preferences of Police Officers from 22 Countries in Transition," British Journal of Criminology 49.6 (2009). 127 Edwards, Changing Policing Theories for 21st Century Societies. 124 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 35 Lum suggests that successful public engagement in crime control, through community policing, increases the level of accountability and legitimacy of the police.128 Her study examined policing trends in 22 countries from Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and South and Latin America that were transitioning from authoritarian governance to democratic states. She observed a positive empirical link between democratisation and community policing, noting that both share similar values and that community policing provides a support base for democratic police forces.129 The ethos behind community policing is inconsistent with more authoritarian strategies such as zero-tolerance policing and paramilitary-policing. Community policing employs soft approaches – such as problem-solving techniques – whereas zero-tolerance approaches rely on harder techniques such as indiscriminate prosecution or military tactics. The policing environment however requires both the soft and hard approaches. Riotous and large-scale disorder requires a swift and strong response from police to maintain order and regain ‘the peace’. Maintaining a balance of both peace and order is required, and is often achieved through specialised units within a police force. Just as there are specialised public order policing teams, who are trained in crowd control, and crowd dispersal, so are there specialist community-policing officers.130 3.3 Reflections Kääriäinen’s analysis, and the subsequent inference that culture influences theory, raises a question of the merit of comparative case studies across different cultures. This becomes particularly relevant in this research project, in terms of identifying risk factors from the study of one culture, such as Norway, and applying them to another such as New Zealand. However, the selection of England and Wales, and Norway has not been made because of overt cultural similarities, such as language, lineage and heritage apparent in the comparison of England and New Zealand. The merit in the selection lies in the examination of police systems with similar character; highly civilianised forces, robust democracies, routinely unarmed police, and a strong sense of policing by consent (Sweden shares similar qualities but is routinely armed). In a sense, these qualities do indicate similarities of the cultures and philosophies. It is the view of the researcher that these similarities provide the merit of this study. 128 Lum, "Community Policing or Zero Tolerance?: Preferences of Police Officers from 22 Countries in Transition." Ibid. 130 Edwards, Changing Policing Theories for 21st Century Societies. 129 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 36 Chapter 4 – Research Findings: Case Studies 4.1 Introduction to the case studies The purpose of this chapter is to present the data collected from the field research in three case studies. Each case study follows a similar format but there are differences in the types of data presented. This was due to the varying availability of current data and existing empirical research. Nonetheless, the case studies, when viewed individually and comparatively, provide a useful starting point for understanding the subject. Each case study opens with a brief history of the policing tradition. Similarly, each case study comments on pressures relating to crime and legitimacy. Although there are general similarities amongst the forces, some differences emerge. A significant portion of each study addresses the respective police firearms policy and subsequent implications. It is intended that the three studies be addressed consecutively; comparisons emerge towards the end. 4.2 The Police of England and Wales A HISTORY OF ENGLISH POLICING ‘Modern’ policing emerged in England in 1829 due to the prolonged efforts of Sir Robert Peel.131 The question of the modernisation of policing was addressed in parliamentary committees of 1812 although it took a further five attempts before Peel was successful in establishing the Metropolitan Police Act 1829. With the exception of the City, the new police force provided a unified public police force for the greater London area. Often referred to as the new police, Peel’s police force was a policing revolution with central government taking direct responsibility for the policing of society using a specialised public police with a new mandate of crime prevention.132 Support for the new state-run centralised policing was not universal. There was widespread unease amongst the middle and upper classes; Peel eventually overcame these concerns by ensuring that his ‘new police’ were not aligned or under the control of the military and were independent of the parliament; that is his police were seen to be civilian. This was achieved through symbolism; the style and colour of uniform was blue not red, as red was associated with the army, and most importantly the police force was unarmed. Symbolism aside, Peel also realised the need to distance the new police from the image of 131 132 Reiner, The Politics of the Police. Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy invincibility of the policing counterparts in Continental Europe and the Americas.133 Thus emerged the ‘benign-bobby’, Sir Robert’s unarmed arbiters of conflict, relying on their wits instead of the coercive power of the red coats, remaining unarmed to build rapport and to seek compliance through the respect of police authority.134 However the unarmed nature of the new police was not just one of theatrics; Peel had practical concerns about the suitability of his new recruits and their ability to use firearms safely according to policy.135 Peel appointed Charles Rowan and Richard Mayne to run the Metropolitan Police (the ‘Met’) as co-commissioners. They established a set of guiding principals on how the police force should function, including the following statement that notes the importance of crime prevention: It should be understood at the outset that the principal object to be attained is the prevention of crime. To this great and everyday effort of the police is to be directed. The security of person and property, the preservation of the public tranquillity and all other objects of a police establishment will thus be better effected than by detection and punishment of an offender after he has succeeded in committing the crime.136 A key strategy was the use of minimal force. Initially, access to weaponry was limited, although when circumstances permitted officers could arm themselves with pistols or cutlasses.137 There was widespread concern from all classes that the police force was yet another government measure to regulate and control freedom.138 It is interesting to note that ‘new policing’ model did not spread universally through the British Empire and colonies. Colonial policing remained aligned with militarised occupation as seen in the colonies of Australia, India and Ireland.139 Waddington and Wright observe that the difference in the policing model was a product of who was being policed; the free English in Britain were policed by a liberal and lightly armed civilianised force but this was not appropriate for colonised Ireland.140 The new police were preoccupied with the working classes, dealing with drunken disputes and general disorder.141 However by the 1870’s, they had largely won over the working classes and achieved widespread acceptance of the legitimacy of the policing system.142 133 P.A.J. Waddington, Arming an Unarmed Police: Policy and Practice in the Metropolitan Police (London: Police Foundation, 1988), Waddington and Wright, "Police Use of Guns in Unarmed Countries: The United Kingdom." 134 Waddington, Arming an Unarmed Police: Policy and Practice in the Metropolitan Police. 135 Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force. 136 Edwards, Changing Policing Theories for 21st Century Societies 32. 137 Reiner, The Politics of the Police. 138 Ibid. 139 Edwards, Changing Policing Theories for 21st Century Societies. 140 Waddington and Wright, "Police Use of Guns in Unarmed Countries: The United Kingdom." 141 Reiner, The Politics of the Police. 142 Ibid. 37 38 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy CHARACTERISTICS AND CHALLENGES OF MODERN ENGLISH POLICING Today, the myth of the benign-bobby still pervades the British psyche. Police officers are no longer dressed in a shirt, tie and smart blazer with their wooden truncheon discreetly hidden. Minimum-force strategies have steadily eroded as a consequence of the mass disorder of the 1970s, hostage and international terrorism emergencies in the 1980s, the mistaken suicide bomber shooting of Jean Charles de Menezes in 2005, and the re-emergence of riotous disorder in London during 2011.143 English police now wear bright yellow jackets, and stabresistant vests, and are armed with pepper spray, rigid handcuffs, and expandable batons. Public order squads deploy with riot shields. Armed response units are deployed fulltime with officers carrying pistols, MP5 sub-machine guns and other assault rifles, prepared for terrorist or active shooter scenarios. The police engage military units, such as the SAS, to execute terrorists; while armed police now have protocols to execute suspected suicide bombers. The English police are no longer a benign force. Yet, the public, police, and some criminologists, still cling to Peel’s now mythical image of the benign bobby. Squires and Kennison refer to this as the myth of the ‘golden age of policing’.144 Today despite all the contemporary crime pressures placed on police, there is still a yearning for a non-militarised police that retains legitimacy and the trust of the public through its restraint, or as Squires and Kennison describe it, the ‘restraint paradigm’: Trust in the police is also essential since this secures our consent to be policed and a trustworthy police is one that acknowledges our civil rights. Indeed … for 150 years police use of force has been formally based upon notions of restraint, minimal force, the rule of law, not setting out to kill the suspect…. This notion of policing we refer to as the restraint paradigm and we set this against a more militarised paradigm which is characterised by low discretion, … or overwhelming superiority of firepower at close quarters and target incapacitation to eliminate the danger.145 Squires and Kennison conclude that 150 years on from the birth of modern policing, there is still the desire for a civilianised police force that retains the same characteristics of Peel’s new police – to garner cooperation of the public through non-coercive means. This was also evident in senior police management. Consider this from a senior Met commissioned officer: The sole skill of being a police officer ought to be your ability to talk to the public if you want a policing by consent model. If you don’t want a policing by consent model, arm 143 Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force, Reiner, The Politics of the Police, Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response, Waddington, Arming an Unarmed Police: Policy and Practice in the Metropolitan Police. 144 Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response. 145 Ibid., 1. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 39 them, put them in armoured personnel carriers and put them on street corners. If you want them to talk to people you don’t divorce them from the public.146 But how practical is this? Sir Robert Mark, Met Commissioner 1972-1977, famously said, “the real art to policing a free society or a democracy is to win by appearing to lose”.147 For example, special tactics deployed by the mounted police were for horses to feign death on command, not only exposing a vulnerability of the officer riding the horse, but to solicit sympathy of animal loving rioters.148 However, current experience suggests that this approach is no longer appropriate. ‘Vulnerability’ tactics were insufficient to deal with the more violent and aggressive events of the 1980s. In the 1990s, the Police Federation successfully pushed for increased protection for officers – the health and safety agenda – resulting in extra kit for front line officers. The Federation also challenged the unarmed status of the force. In response, the Met devised specialist squads to deal with the most dangerous of situations, including public order teams and armed response teams.149 However, the developments failed to address front-line officers’ inability to deal with serious incidents at the time of first occurrence. An example of this incapability is shown below.150 The series of screen shots have been taken from a video of a man in London wielding a machete. The first picture shows the man surrounded by a group of police officers attempting an arrest (Figure 3). The police have already deployed pepper spray but it has had no effect on the man. Figure 3: Man with machete 146 Interviewee 1, Personal Interview. 9 June 2011 Reiner, The Politics of the Police. 148 Ibid. 149 Waddington, Arming an Unarmed Police: Policy and Practice in the Metropolitan Police. 150 Telegraphtv, Amateur Video of Machete Weilding Man Being Tackled by Police with a Wheelie Bin. 2011 Video. Youtube. Web. 17/11/2011 147 40 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy The second picture shows the next tactical response: one officer distracts the man using a wheelie-bin while a second officer approaches from behind to strike him with an expandable baton (Figure 4). Figure 4: Attempt to subdue man The application of pepper spray and the baton strike have been unsuccessful.151 The inability of the front-line officers to deal with the situation is a product of the difference of utility of the available force applied by an officer and the subject’s ability to resist the force – the result is a force deficit.152 The matter is finally resolved when a large number of police storm the subject with riot shields (Figure 5) effectively eliminating the force deficit. Figure 5: Multiple officers storm and subdue man This example illustrates the vulnerability of the unarmed officer which, now and then will result in incapacity to deal with the incident. Fortunately, in this example the man did not decamp from the street, or attempt to barricade himself inside any of the surrounding buildings. If so, the incident would have increased in severity and would have required more robust tactical options. 151 Ibid. Ross Wolf, Charlie Mesloh, Mark Henych and L. Frank Thompson, "Police Use of Force and the Cumulative Force Factor," Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 32.4 (2009). 152 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 41 The officers initially were unable to adequately deal with incident, underscoring the occasional vulnerabilities of the consent approach – the man with the machete did not consent to being arrested and police were unable to take control. The force deficit created incapacity and was only rectified by the rush of a large group of officers. USE OF FIREARMS & TACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS In the late 1960s the first specialist Firearms Branch of the Met was created. It consisted of volunteers from the regular police who received specialist training and would be deployed when circumstances required.153 The inadequacies of this model, created by deployment delays and highlighted by problems in responding to the Hungerford mass shooting in 1986, resulted in the formation of Armed Response Vehicles (ARV) in 1991.154 ARVs are operated by full-time dedicated firearms trained officers and are deployed to patrol on a 24-hour, seven-day per week basis. In London, ARVs are able to respond to any armed threat within 10 minutes. The ARV model is not resourced to the same degree outside London. While the Metropolitan Police have approximately 20 ARV on patrol at any one time (each crewed with three officers), provincial police forces may only have two ARV squads (crewed with two officers) covering geographical distances greater the London area.155 Discussions with a London-based ARV crew provided some interesting insights. They believed that routine arming of all English police officers in all 43 forces would create logistical and financial pressures: the cost of training, and retraining would cripple operating budgets. There was also the view that there would be a high proportion of officers who would not be suited to using firearms or did not want to work with firearms and would resign. The ‘myth’ of weapon retention was present, with one officer commenting, “Imagine a young female by herself not being able to retain and look after her weapon.”156 This was particularly surprising from the middle-aged male officer of small stature who raised it, and given that weapon retention is clearly not an issue identified in other countries where officers are routinely armed. However, while the comment reflects poorly on the attitude of the officer, it is also perhaps indicative of lack with familiarity of firearms amongst the general British populace, including the police. The crew’s shift inspector did not share the concerns about weapon retention; he commented that if other officers in other countries could retain their weapon, why couldn’t the English police? There were some insights that were of higher value. The crew had no difficulty with the idea of returning to general front-line duties without firearms, as they did not believe that 153 Waddington and Wright, "Police Use of Guns in Unarmed Countries: The United Kingdom." Ibid. 155 Interviewee 20, Personal Interview. 156 Interviewee 19, Personal Interview. 27 June 2011 154 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 42 the environment was that unsafe. They also felt that the English environment had become less violent over the past 20 years and that they were increasingly dealing with people who were ‘mad’ not ‘bad’.157 Similarly, there was not a great concern about the large quantity of illegally owned firearms: [The problem of armed criminals] is less of a problem in the UK [as] it is harder to get firearms. The kind of people who are likely to use firearms against police are chaotic people who are not worried about whether we are armed or not. The kind of people who are less likely to use firearms against police are organised criminals.158 They commented that the tightening of arms control laws has made it difficult to source firearms – legally and illegally – but more importantly, it has resulted in a scarcity of ammunition. THREATS TO POLICE LEGITIMACY The yuck factor Waddington has provided a great deal of research that helps explain English methods in relation to tactical responses and use of force. One of his current research projects looks at public opinion regarding the use of force by police. Using focus groups he explores opinions about how police employ physical restraint, hand-tactics, and handcuffing. He has observed a high degree of discussion and sometimes aversion to the physical nature of policing even though the scenarios that gave rise to this aversion did not include any explicit excessive use of force; the actions of police were proportionate and appropriate to meet the resistance encountered. He has concluded that the public do not like seeing the ‘heavy-handed’ nature of physical restraint, nor the sense of unfairness when multiple officers tackle a single offender. The use of these tactics incurs a type of ‘yuck factor’. He therefore questions the current style of policing technique, characterised by the aversion to deploying physical techniques: So the assumption that the public is prepared to quite easily accept police officers jumping on to somebody, wrestling them unceremoniously on to the ground, usually with two or three officers, with one struggling person putting them in handcuffs, putting them in the van, that this is not controversial? And that the use of the Taser or CS spray is controversial, is fanciful! 159 It is Waddington’s conclusion that society requires fair and professional police and that use of force must be on an impartial level. The image of grappling with ‘someone in the gutter’ 157 This is common policing parlance for differentiating between the mentally ill, who might act in a dangerous manner, and those who are criminally violent. 158 Interviewee 1, Personal Interview. 159 P.A.J. Waddington, Personal Interview. 2011 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 43 might be proportionate in the hierarchy of force, but it looks bad, and therefore feels unfair, unprofessional and very personal. This was also the view of one of the interviewees: Giving people tools to use force and using force more often is not necessarily a bad thing – such as less lethal [options]. It’s the attitude that goes with it. It is the training and professionalism. Changes [have occurred] from the 70’s and 80’s [when it was about] summary justice – we’ve become much more professional in the use of force.160 In another study, responses were sought from focus groups that watched footage taken of an ARV in action in London. Waddington explains: The Met … were surprised … that [what] the public objected to, was not the fact that there is a car going down the road, they jump out with MP5s, there is a guy on the floor [told to] “open your legs” – “NO” and he is kicked. [The guy] is looking down the business end of an MP5 – it doesn’t get any more serious than this (if it does it is terminal) and the public is worried about somebody kicking somebody’s legs open? 161 Waddington questions the nature of the public’s dislike of the offender being kicked by an armed officer – as if the kick was personal and unfair. However, probably unknown to the lay observer is that the officer must use both hands to hold the MP5; with no free hand there is no other technique available to the armed officer. Waddington’s point is that the public were not opposed to the armed officer training his firearm on the subject, it was the kick that created the ‘yuck factor’. Kratos – Shooting to kill The shooting of Jean Charles de Menezes in July 2005 marks the most troubling turning point in the use of force by the English police. Police shot de Menezes because they believed that he was a suicide bomber intending to deploy a bomb.162 How do you stop a suicide bomber from detonating the bomb? Waddington explains the reasoning behind the Kratos163 policy: The … problem is that suicide bombers, may, clever ones, have a contact on the end of the [their] fingers and a contact in the middle of the palm. One of the last things to desert us when we die is the grasp reflex … as a person dies they would often grasp and that would set a bomb off anyway. There is nothing particularly different or new about that. If you have a hostage being held at gunpoint and the decision is taken for sniper option … the sniper is going to aim for the point around the middle of the brain stem … killing is not 160 Interviewee 1, Personal Interview. Waddington, Personal Interview. 162 Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force, Interviewee 20, Personal Interview. 163 Kratos is the policy for dealing with suspected suicide bombers; essentially it is a ‘shoot-to-kill’ tactic. 161 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 44 enough – it is designed to instantaneously severe all connection between the brain and the body.164 The tragedy of the de Menezes case is that police at the time mistook him for a suicide bomber. Subsequent investigations have found severe deficiencies in all aspects of the operation165 and a severe threat to police legitimacy. Consider Punch: Consent is based upon the exercise of legitimate authority and if the public doubts that legitimacy it can revoke consent.166 The de Menezes incident epitomises the change in the English policing approach from one of restraint using an unarmed police force, policing by consent, the benign bobby, when one had nothing to fear from a policeman167 to the use of lethal force to eliminate danger. The comments of one interviewee provide an insight into the potential impact on the police-public relationship should police of England and Wales become routinely armed: … this would eventually become normalised over time but there would be a change in the attitude of the public towards the police for the first few years – there would be a real increase in the fear of the police. By the time it became normalised, people would have generated internally a natural apprehension, rather than a feeling of security.168 EMERGENT RISK FACTORS Both the ‘yuck factor’ and the de Menezes incident show how the use of force can undermine the sense of police legitimacy. A simple kick can be seen as personal and undermines the public faith in the professionalism of police. 4.3 The Norwegian Police – Politi- og lensmannsetaten A BRIEF HISTORY Norwegian policing shares a common history with Denmark and Sweden. The first public police officer emerged during the Middle Ages; known as the Lensman, the officer was a functionary who enforced local laws and collected taxes on behalf of the King.169 Over time, the role evolved differently throughout the Nordic countries. In Norway, the Lensman served under the monarch’s territorial representative and was directly elected by the peasantry, while 164 Interviewee 20, Personal Interview. Commission Independent Police Complaints, Stockwell One : Investigation into the Shooting of Jean Charles De Menezes at Stockwell Underground Station on 22 July 2005 (London: Independent Police Complaints Commission, 2007). 166 Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force 183. 167 Ibid. 168 Interviewee 1, Personal Interview. 169 Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis. 165 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 45 in Denmark the office became hereditary. Towards the 18th and 19th centuries, Norway became less influenced by police evolution in Europe, and the gendarmerie model, and became more influenced by the developments in England. There are records of Norwegian officials visiting Sir Robert Peel in London during the 1830s.170 However, during the Second World War, policing became more oppressive.171 Norway was occupied by Germany and police collaboration with Nazi occupiers resulted in Jewish deportation.172 At the conclusion of the war, as a result of this, a number of police were prosecuted, and the Norwegian police force had to work very hard to regain legitimacy and the support of the people. POLICE LEGITIMACY & POLICING CHARACTERISTICS The Norwegian police are not routinely armed. The Finnish Police were the first Nordic force to become routinely armed following their civil war in 1918.173 The Danish police became routinely armed in 1965 after four officers were shot at a single incident.174 The Swedish police become routinely armed in 1965 as a result of reorganisation and modernisation. Prior to 1965 Swedish police were armed with sabres, and some regional forces were routinely armed with pistols. As a result of the modernisation, a national police force was established and police were routinely armed with officers wearing a sidearm.175 The explanations of why the Norwegian police remain routinely unarmed are a mixture of history and utility. The Nazi Occupation left a nasty reminder of the perils of state control and absolute power. One interviewee commented: The Norwegian police, after the war, had a lot of problems with their legitimacy and had to start work from scratch to build confidence. This also, I think, has stressed the importance of [a] civilian orientated police, co-operation with the public, [and] policing by consent.176 The observation is curious and instructive. It shows that there was a need to rebuild confidence in the police force after the oppression experienced during the occupation. The interviewee also stressed the perceived need to build a civilianised force, one that was not aligned with the military, through the consent of the public. The other reason for remaining unarmed is one of utility; the Norwegians do not yet perceive the need to be routinely armed. There was a consistent view among the interviewees in Norway that the current level of public trust in the Norwegian Police is high and that there is a strong sense of police 170 Interviewee 8, Personal Interview. Ibid, Interviewee 3, Personal Interview. 172 Interviewee 8, Personal Interview. 173 Knutsson, "Police Use of Firearms in the Nordic Countries." 174 Ibid. 175 Ibid. 176 Interviewee 8, Personal Interview. 171 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 46 legitimacy. They attribute this to the strong post-war democratic traditions and the fact that the police have not been embroiled in conflicts with lower-socio economic groups and unions (such as was experienced by police in England in the 1980s with mine workers). This can also be seen in published literature. Kääriäinen’s 2007 study of trust in European police ranks Norway and the other three major Nordic countries ahead of the continental countries (refer to Figure 2, page 33). As a country, Norway has consistently rated highly by Transparency International. In 2010, it was ranked tenth least corrupt of 178 countries in the 2010 Corruption Perception Index.177 Feedback from interviewees resonates with and reinforces the findings of Kääriäinen’s studies of police legitimacy. All Norwegian interviewees commented on the lack of systemic police (and government) corruption. There were references to isolated cases of misconduct however there was no sense that these events affected the overall level of trust. I would describe [the] relationship as sound and solid. A lot of research shows that the police in Norway are trusted. People have a lot of confidence in the police. … Of course many think that we see police officers too seldom, too few of them.178 Several interviewees commented on how Norwegian society has changed over the past 30 years and how the police have had to accommodate this: If you take the attitude of the Norwegian Police from 1980 and implement that in 2010 the public would react negatively because [the public] see themselves equal of [of] the police. And that’s of course reflected upon the police because they can’t treat the public in a way that would affect negatively on the trust and the confidence of the police.179 Other interviewees equate positive changes in police culture with changes to police education. Training now occurs under a university style degree program that takes three years to complete. Therefore all recruits are university graduates and that has improved the quality of police. There is also a greater diversity including professional backgrounds. I think the Norwegian police officer in general are quite well educated. Also because now a lot of students they have studied at the University - they have other professional backgrounds being actors or dentists or you know, so quite well educated.180 USE OF FIREARMS & TACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS Norway’s police has remained routinely unarmed, but is in fact an armed police force. Officers do not wear firearms on their person as a matter of course, but each patrol vehicle 177 Transparency International, Corruption Perception Index 2010 (Berlin: 2010). Interviewee 8, Personal Interview. 179 Interviewee 4, Personal Interview. 14 June 2011 180 Interviewee 8, Personal Interview. 178 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 47 carries firearms in sealed locked safes.181 As such, all police officers are trained to use firearms if necessary. This is similar to the situation in New Zealand but differs from the English model where only a proportion of police are trained and authorised to use firearms. The Norwegian police also have an Oslo-based specialist-armed unit Beredskapstroppen for armed hostage situations or high-risk operations. There are strict controls in Norway on the deployment of firearms. Except in extreme circumstances, the local chief of police must approve the use and deployment of firearms personally. Police are able to deploy firearms operationally in the following circumstances: • To prevent imminent danger or grievous bodily harm; • To arrest very dangerous persons; • To prevent substantial damage on foreign property (such as embassies); • To prevent objects or institutions of public interest from being seriously harmed (such as parliament or strategic infrastructure). The use of arms is governed under a minimisation of force principle; damage must limited as much as possible.182 The result of this is a high proportion of overt threats of being shot (where an officer presents a firearm and issues a verbal challenges) and firing warning shots to draw attention.183 Figure 6 (below) shows the number of incidents where the Norwegian police have responded to incidents by deploying firearms between 1990 and 2007. The orange line shows where ‘threats’ have been made and the red line indicates actual fire. The graph shows a sharp rise of threats of fire over the period of 1998 to 2000 but the number of shots fired is relatively consistent over the same period. There are two explanations offered by the authors of this study; first two police officers were shot and killed in 1998 and as such officers have heightened their sense of perception of risk, and second, in 2000 the reporting of firearms incidents changed, which may have resulted in a different approach to categorisation.184 181 Johannes Knutsson, "Police Use of Firearms – a Comparison" Stockholm Criminology Symposium, Stockholm, 14-16 June, 2010. Tor-Geir Myhrer and Jon Strype, "Police Use of Guns in a Routinely Unarmed Police Force: Regulations and Practise in Norway," Police Use of Force : A Global Perspective, eds. Joseph B. Kuhns and Johannes Knutsson (Santa Barbara: Praeger, 2010). 183 The use of warning shots is commonplace in Nordic countries and is inconsistent with firearms practice in New Zealand (General Instruction F64 states that “As a general rule, warning shots should never be fired.”) 184 Myhrer and Strype, "Police Use of Guns in a Routinely Unarmed Police Force: Regulations and Practise in Norway." 182 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 48 90 80 70 Number of incidents threats 60 50 40 30 20 10 shot s 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 X Axis Figure 6: Norwegian Police firearm incidents 1990-2007185 All first-response patrol vehicles in Norway carry four firearms: two 9mm pistols and two 9mm MP5 sub-machine guns. If first-response police are directed to a firearms-worthy incident they may request the deployment of firearms. This needs to be authorised personally by the local chief of police (or the nominee). This authorising procedure causes a natural delay – one interviewee commented that authorisation routinely takes 4-5 minutes and permission is not always granted. There was a majority view amongst the interviewees in Norway that the unarmed status and delay incurred by seeking authorisation works in favour of the safety of the police officer. For instance, when an armed incident is dispatched or discovered by a patrol, the delay and armament process results in extra time for officers to prepare. It allows critical time for police to plan their tactical approach to the situation and also allows for additional police to arrive, thereby enhancing tactical options. An interviewee who recently met with Danish counterparts illustrates the utility of this process: We had an interesting experience when we visited our Danish colleagues … they have been armed for many years. Their new strategy … now is to stop and think. And we stop and think when we get our weapons on … we pull [ourselves] back, secure the crime scene, get forces and colleagues with us and it’s better. So if a thief gets off, so what? It’s better than somebody getting hurt – we’ll catch them anyway. In America – “we can’t let him go”, first pull your gun, it’s hard to reverse it.186 185 186 Reproduced from ibid., 102. Interviewee 5, Personal Interview. 15 June 2011 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 49 The process also provides the potential for a greater quantity of staff being present at an incident. The table below shows that on average there are twice as many staff present at firearms incidents in Norway as there are in Sweden: Table 3: Officers present during effective fire incidents187 Jurisdiction Average number of officers present Median number of officers present Norway 7.4 5 Sweden 3.2 2 Another interviewee commented on how his unarmed status has saved his life on more than one occasions. I have been threatened [with] firearms three times, like [at] more than an arm length distance. My reflections after those incidents is that if I’d been armed in those situations I am quite sure I would have been shot, because my action might be that I am taking my weapon and that would cause the reaction from the opposite party.188 While these views reflect the preference of Norwegian police officers to remain unarmed, there is some sense of inevitability amongst interviewees that this will change in the future. Many interviewees observed changes in the level of violence experienced in society, and some observed that criminal influences from some Eastern European and Baltic states, apparent in Sweden, are slowly drifting into Norway. Because we have no borders anymore and we have new people with other cultural background and they come from [places] where the police forces are very very different from Norway.189 Another interviewee commented on the impact of organised crime from these countries: Like the former Yugoslavia, we have the soldiers, very well uneducated soldiers who were soldiers during the Balkan War – used to kill … they are recruited in organised crime organisations because of their experience.190 There was a unanimous feeling amongst the interviewees that the Norwegian police should only become routinely armed if circumstances are justifiable, but that if this was to happen, society would eventually accept it and it would become normalised. For instance: 187 Data sourced from Swedish National Police Board from incidents ranging 1996 to 2004 and Norwegian Police University College from incidents ranging 1996 to 2006. Knutsson "Police Use of Firearms – a Comparison" 188 Interviewee 6, Personal Interview. 15 June 2011 189 Interviewee 5, Personal Interview. 190 Interviewee 6, Personal Interview. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 50 My personal view is that if we were permanently armed I think it will be a matter of time before we get used to it, like in Denmark…. I don’t think that is the biggest issue of being permanently armed or not.191 EMERGENT RISK FACTORS There was a general feeling in Norway that routinely armed police officers were at a higher risk than unarmed officers. Most interviewees observed a distinct sense of pride that Norwegian police were unarmed and were able to deal with most situations through patience, maturity and the importance of valuing life. However, there was also an overall sense, that should the Norwegian police become routinely armed, Norwegian society would soon come to accept it. 4.4 The Swedish police – Polismyndigheten A BRIEF INTRODUCTION The origins of Swedish policing are shared with the other Nordic countries including the medieval traditional Lensman common in Denmark and Norway.192 However, events in the first half of the 20th century played out differently for Sweden. Whereas Norway was occupied during the Second World War, Sweden maintained neutrality. During the war, policing was not centralised or nationalised resulting in 1,621 distinct policing districts.193 As a consequence, each district had different policing policies and armament requirements. Some officers overtly wore sabres and others had a sidearm secured discretely in a pocket. However, in 1965, policing was reorganised reducing the quantity of policing districts, implementing nationwide polices, establishing a national Commissioner, and standardising uniforms and equipment.194 As a consequence, a sidearm was to be worn by all officers on duty. We were armed before 1965, even in 1929, but we were carrying [arms] in a different way. My father was a police officer before 1965 and I know for a fact that they shot a lot at the time – but there were no statistics – because they were shooting after car thieves, running after burglars, they were shooting a lot.195 191 Ibid. Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis. 193 Lars-Erik Plantin, "The Organisation of the Swedish Police," Police and the Social Order : Contemporary Research Perspectives, eds. Johannes Knutsson, Eckart Kühlhorn and Albert J. Reiss (Stockholm: National Swedish Council for Crime Prevention, Research and Development Division, 1979)., cited in Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis. 194 Knutsson, "Police Use of Firearms in the Nordic Countries.", Knutsson "Police Use of Firearms – a Comparison" 195 Interviewee 11, Personal Interview. 23 June 2011 192 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 51 Given that Norway now awaits an appropriate ‘trigger’ to become armed, like Denmark or Finland, it is interesting to consider Sweden’s 1965’s general arming was as a result of modernisation and to achieve national consistency. POLICE LEGITIMACY Like Norway, the Swedish public have a high level of trust in their police.196 Sweden is ranked fourth by Kääriäinen’s study under Norway, Denmark and Finland, but at the same level as Germany and Luxemburg (see Figure 2 on page 33). Factors influencing this might include population (Sweden is almost double that of the other Nordic countries) as well as geographical pressures. Sweden buffers Norway from continental Europe and its major sea border lies across from the United Kingdom. Therefore, Sweden is more likely to be susceptible to wider European crime and criminals than Norway. There was a consistent view among the seven Swedish interviewees that the policepublic relationship was positive but had room for improvement. The specific challenges affecting the relationship that they indentified included a general increase in immigration from Eastern Europe, which had brought new pressures of organised crime, and the aftermath of widespread anti-capitalist rioting in Gothenburg in 1991. For instance: … earlier they were much more keen to keep in their own world. Maybe they killed each other but it used to be nice and polite and they would put them in some water hole or something. Today it’s not like that, they shoot them, kill each other on the pavement in front of other people in the cafés – like you see [in] mafia films. We had it two weeks ago: three people were just machinegun shot down in the centre of town.197 This sense of increasing violence in their society shaped the interviewees’ views on role of the police as protectors of the public. While the Norwegian interviewees commented on the importance and value of human life, the Swedes exhibited a tendency to value the importance of maintaining control. This feeling of being able to stay in control underpinned the importance of being armed: I don’t believe in the thinking that an unarmed police will get kinder criminals. It might be so but [that way] we leave the control to the criminals whether they want to be nice or not. If they are not then we are really in bad trouble if we are unarmed. … I don’t want to hand over the control of the situation to the criminal.198 And another commented: 196 Kääriäinen, "Trust in the Police in 16 European Countries: A Multilevel Analysis." Interviewee 13, Personal Interview. 23 June 2011 198 Interviewee 12, Personal Interview. 23 June 2011 197 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 52 We don’t leave control of the situation to the bad guys. We have a fair chance of taking the command. And I also believe that the public, that if an officer feels safe, then he is also a safer officer for the public. I think a frightened police officer could also be a dangerous one.199 This interviewee’s statement, that a strong and confident police officer has a greater chance of fending off aggression, mirrors the literature.200 Buttle discusses confidence in terms of an officer’s ability to fend off aggressors or take control in situations requiring defensive tactics. Here, though, the interviewee attributes his sense of safety to the fact that he is permanently armed. There are differences of opinion in Sweden as to how the public perceive the armed status of the police. The majority of the interviewees agreed that the fact that they were armed was insignificant in terms of how the public might approach them in times of emergency or for help. This was not the experience of a younger police officer (in age and tenure) who commented on the fears of his girlfriend: Many people are afraid of guns – they wouldn’t even hold a gun – they think it’s too scary. And I know that my girlfriend … and I was an officer in the Swedish military before [being a police officer] so she has been around uniformed people, officers and police officers. But every time she gets stopped on the highway for routine control for alcohol she gets scared. She gets scared of the police officers. Even though we have a nice smile it is the uniform and everything and the gun that makes a distance between the people and police officer.201 Another interviewee believed that the Swedish public were accustomed to their police wearing a sidearm so that the question was a non-issue: I think the public, they don’t look if we carry a gun or not. So I could probably work a year in uniform without a gun and nobody would notice – from the public I mean. … That is one of the reasons we have a pistol instead of a submachine gun – it’s discreet – but it’s the hardest gun to shoot. It is much easier to shoot with a sub-machine gun, you are more accurate with a sub-machine gun, but it looks bad.202 199 Interviewee 13, Personal Interview. Philip Bonifacio, The Psychological Effects of Police Work : A Psychodynamic Approach, Criminal Justice and Public Safety (New York: Plenum Press, 1991)., cited in John Buttle, "A Constructive Critique of the Officer Safety Programme Used in England and Wales," Policing and Society 17.2 (2007). 201 Interviewee 9, Personal Interview. 22 June 2011 202 Interviewee 10, Personal Interview. 23 June 2011 200 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 53 On replying to the question about arming the police with sub-machine guns203 (which is customary in some European police forces and airport police throughout England and Wales): I think the public would think it was too much show of force. … Our sub-machine guns, we have to get permission to get them out of the police station. And that has a certain amount of time before we can get to the scene with sub-machine guns. And when you were [sic] asking the supervisor if you can bring out the sub-machine gun, the real question is, “can I have permission to be more accurate with my gun?” It’s not like it’s a nuclear bazooka, it’s the same ammunition as the pistol but I can be more accurate.204 Their comments provide insights into several areas. First, they illustrate the consistent sensitivity towards the increase in deployment or symbolism of force. While the interviewee believes that the Swedish public are not concerned by the sight of police officers armed with pistols, the fact that the sight of police with sub-machine guns might cause alarm validates the concerns foreseen by others in Norway if Norwegian police were to become routinely armed. Second, it is ironic that the interviewee feels constrained by the inadequacy of the pistol used in service, calling into question its accuracy – perhaps in this instance the police are relying on the symbolism of the pistol as an armed deterrent rather than it’s utility. The interviewees agreed on the importance of image and how this can affect the nature of the police-public relationship: …remember when we changed uniform from the light blue shirt to the more modern [dark shirt]. Immediately after, we get the question we look more aggressive but that was over in half a year or so and the police officers that came after that never had the old uniform. When I asked them they had never heard from the public that “oh you look so aggressive”. … of course there will be people who will hesitate and look a little bit more concerned about approaching the police, but that will disappear very shortly if you continue to be the same police as you used to be.205 The final sentence from this interviewee is instructive as it articulates the question of the increase ‘show’ of force yet also offers a solution; the police-public relationship will endure provided that the police maintain legitimacy and trust of the public. 203 The reference to “sub-machine gun” may be an emotive term and its deployment by police questionable. A sub-machine gun refers to a semi-automatic firearm which fires one round per trigger pull. A machine gun is a generic term to describe a firearm which fires many rounds per trigger pull and the quantity depends on the duration the trigger is activated. The Swedish and Norwegian police use MP5 sub-machine guns – refer to Appendix A2 for a picture. 204 Interviewee 10, Personal Interview. 205 Interviewee 13, Personal Interview. 54 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy USE OF FIREARMS & TACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS All Swedish police officers are routinely armed and must carry a sidearm while on duty unless specifically authorised not to do so.206 The use of firearms is authorised by a governmental decree, which stipulates a ‘lawful authority’ to shoot to arrest, stop from escaping or apprehend escaping offenders for a list of specified offences. Police are also entitled to use firearms in ‘self defence’ where there is apparent danger posed by offenders, either to protect their own lives or the lives of others. They also have the ability to use them in ‘emergency situations’, such as to shoot an aggressive dog.207 A study of firearm incidents involving Swedish police between 1985 and 1998 by Silverudd found that 80% of all shootings were justified for self-defence, 18% with lawful authority and 2% in emergency responses.208 As with other Nordic countries, Swedish police are required to fire warning shots – if possible – before firing at an offender. Of incidents where shots were fired at a person, 54% consisted of just a warning shot, 15% consisted of a warning shot followed by effective fire, and 31% consisted of just effective fire. Shooting is not limited to firing at a person; despite officers not being trained to do so, officers shot at vehicles decamping with offenders, with 90% of incidents occurring without warning shots. The median distance for warning shots was six metres but three metres for effective fire. Swedish officers are trained to limit harm as much as possible and are taught to initially shoot at an offender’s legs. If the situation becomes one of self-defence then they are taught to shoot at an offender’s chest area.209 The Silverudd study indicated that of the offenders hit by a bullet, 14% died. With regard to police officers, 10% of incidents resulted in an officer being physically injured210 and only one incident occurred in which officers were killed. In 1999 the Malexander incident resulted in the deaths of two police officers shot dead by a group of three bank robbers using the officers’ own firearms. Knutsson categorised the Silverudd data into groups of a similar type of threat, highlighting the average distance between police and offender, location, the incidence of effective fire and injuries to police or offender. His table is reproduced below as Table 4 and offers a useful insight into the behaviour of Swedish officers. 206 Knutsson, "Police Use of Firearms in Sweden." Ibid. 208 The study was conducted by former Swedish police superintendant Sven Silverudd using data from 430 incidents as cited in ibid. 209 Ibid. 210 There is no reference to psychological injuries or harm in the Silverudd study. 207 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 55 Table 4: Sweden - Average Yearly Incidents211 Average incidents p.a. Average distance Indoor Effective Fire Injuries to Police Injuries to offender Feared armed (n=82) 5.6 11.6 m 7.7% 20.9% 0% 16% Armed with firearm (n=67) 4.7 19.3 m 13.8% 63.1% 6.1% 36.1% Threatened with knife or sharp object (n=56) 4 6.1 m 23.2% 43.6% 0% 34.5% Assaulted with knife or sharp object (n=59) 4.1 3.3 m 39.7% 73.6% 15.3% 71.4% Assaulted with vehicle (n=68) 4.4 5.1 m 3.3% 91.7% 3% 8.9% Of all the incidents recorded, the highest numbers involved an unarmed offender being perceived to be armed (5.6 incidents p.a.) yet this group of incidents has the lowest number of effective fire results. One explanation of this could be that Swedish officers are experiencing an unnecessarily heightened level of perceived threat given that the offenders are unarmed. The second highest group is where an offender is armed with a firearm. The outcome of two thirds of incidents in this group results in officers shooting effective fire. Sharp object assaults and threats are next and occur at the same rate annually. It is interesting to note the average distance between an officer and offender in an actual assault is half the distance of that of a threatened assault. It could be that offenders are not ‘threatening’ the officer in the first instance, perhaps to reduce the distance between both to entice a fight. Or, offenders are being chased into a building with reduced area. Finally, an offender is most likely to be effectively shot if an actual assault on an officer occurs (shown in the assault with knife and vehicle categories). A snapshot of police shootings – Skåne police district The following data comes from research into police shootings (n=77) between 1985-2004 in the Skåne police district in southern Sweden. The data was collected by a police tactical firearms trainer and provides a unique insight into police incidents. The police officer involved in each incident was interviewed at the completion of procedural and criminal investigations. The Skåne researcher believed that this allowed for a deep level of reflection and self-assessment without the fear of recrimination or sanction. For instance, interview questions included subjective self-assessments relating to ‘mental readiness’ and ‘panic’ shootings; topics that would arguably be omitted from discussions with criminal investigators, departmental or outside interviewers. The first table (Table 5) shows that nearly 60% of shooting incidents involve firstresponders as opposed to specialist squads. This is significant; it suggests that the majority of 211 Knutsson, "Police Use of Firearms in Sweden," 111. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 56 incidents do not initially present as serious firearms incidents which would trigger the deployment of specialists. Equally, it could be that incidents are being discovered by officers and require immediate action. The second insight is that over half of all incidents were limited to the firing of a warning shot and only about one third resulted in shots being fired directly at an offender. The most logical deduction is that a warning shot resolved the incident and enabled police to gain control of the situation (although, as the data is silent on the capture or evasion of an offender, this cannot be assumed to be the case in all incidents). Table 5: Skåne Incidents - General factors General factors Type of shooting Type of patrol Officer Sex Number of officers involved in shooting Percentage Warning shots fired (not at offender) 47% Targeted effective shots fired 35% Warning shots fired at offender 10% Accidental shots 8% First responder unit (patrol, traffic, dog) 59% SWAT units 19% Other 22% Male 94% Female (comprising of 19% staff) 6% One officer 87% Two officers 11% Three or more officers 2% Table 6 below focuses on environmental factors and it is interesting to learn that twothirds of incidents occurred during evening and night shifts. Table 7 (below) illustrates the behaviour of the officer: 82% of incidents were attributed to acting in self-defence, in 63% of incidents officers did not initially have their weapon drawn (it was still holstered), 56% occurred where the officer was not yet mentally prepared to shoot, 42% occurred with a distance of 0-3 metres and 50% occurred between 0-3 seconds of the officer registering a ‘threat’ from the offender. Taken together, these statistics suggest that the majority of incidents occur very quickly requiring immediate reaction from the officer. More interestingly, of the shots fired in self-defence, 53% were fired in a ‘panicked’ state rather than a controlled state. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 57 Table 6: Skåne Incidents - Environmental factors Environmental factors Percentage Location Indoor or outdoor 86% or 14% Outdoor locations Urban or Rural 79% or 21% Use of cover and concealment Yes or no 17% or 83% Lighting conditions Dark 65% Daylight 24% Dusk/dawn 11% Night: (midnight – 8am) 44% Evening: (4pm – midnight) 39% Day: (8am – 4pm) 17% Shift Table 7: Skåne Incidents - Officer factors Officer factors Reason for officer firing Percentage Self defence 82% Other (accidental, shooting of dogs or the like) 12% To affect arrest 5% Self-defence and to affect arrest 1% Weapon: in holster or drawn 37% or 63% Mentally prepared to shoot: yes or no 46% or 56% All shootings – controlled or panicked 63% or 37% Shots in self defence – controlled or panicked 47% or 53% Warning shots – controlled or panicked 72% or 26% 0 – 3 metres 42% 3 – 7 metres 32% 7 – 15 metres 19% More than 15 metres 7% 0 – 3 seconds 50% 4 – 10 seconds 23% 10 – 60 seconds 19% More than 1 minute 8% Movement Officer still or moving 37% or 63% Pistol grip Both hands or one hand 71% or 29% Sights used Shots fired in self defence – sights used or not 43% or 57% All shots – sights used or not 42% or 58% Warning shots – sights used or not 15% or 57% Warning shot followed by actual shot – sights used or not 77% or 23% Preparation Shots fired ‘in control’ or ‘panic’ Distance between officer and offender212 Time scale (between threat and first shot fired 212 Adjusted to exclude a one-off extraordinary event. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 58 Two explanations emerge for this. It could be that the policing environment is so unpredictable that routine incidents can rapidly escalate into armed situations, without warning or without giving cause for police to predict such an outcome. Conversely it could be that an officer’s knowledge of being armed decreases risk-perception by masking risk factors or warnings – a firearm increases the officer’s sense of safety. Squires suggests that providing a firearm to police increases an officer’s ‘presumption of capacity’ to effectively deal with armed incidents. The officer believes that an ability to deliver deadly force enhances his or her safety.213 This in turn leads to an inevitable illusion of safety. But when the final set of data is considered (Table 8), it becomes apparent that the majority of incidents start out at a low level: burglary, disturbance and high-speed vehicle pursuit. These normally would not arouse suspicion that the responding officers would encounter an armed offender. This suggests a remarkable conclusion, that most shooting incidents occur as a result of low-level incidents, not the type of incidents that specialist armed units might be deployed to, such as armed robberies, serious assaults or hostage/siege situations. Table 8: Skåne Incidents - Offender factors Offender factors Original incident type Shooting target Offender movement Offender type of weapon Percentage Burglary 16% Disturbance 15% Pursuit 14% Person 83% Vehicle 12% Other 5% Towards officer 52% Standing still 23% Moving sideways from officer 19% Moving away from officer 6% Believed to be armed but found to be unarmed 25% Sharp-edged weapon 22% Firearm 20% Vehicle 11% Blunt weapon 5% The Skåne data suggests a useful means of understanding the types of shooting incidents occurring within Sweden. It also provides a framework to help build the common scenario encountered by police which would result in an armed incident. Consider the following narrative: 213 Peter Squires, Personal Interview. 2011 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 59 A first response police unit is called to attend a suspected burglary or some other disturbance. The location is in an urban area and the officer(s) have to enter the location premises. The officer is either working an evening shift or night shift and it is dark. As the officer approaches or enters the premises he will have a weapon drawn, as a precaution, holding it with both hands but will not be mentally prepared to shoot (there is no formed intent to shoot). As the officer moves into the building he sees an offender moving towards him. He believes that the offender is armed – he can see some sort of weapon in the offender’s hand – the distance between them will be closing probably about three metres. The officer reacts – most likely in panic – and shoots at the offender, not using firearm sights.214 This hypothetical narrative shows how a common incident, such as attending a suspected burglary can escalate. This type of incident is commonplace in every policing jurisdiction; the difference lies in the perception of threat and the officer’s ability to counter the threat. For instance, it is extremely unlikely that a Norwegian patrol would seek (and receive) permission to draw and carry a firearm for the purpose of safety in attending this ‘routine’ type of incident. The perception of threat, therefore, becomes an important factor in shaping the police response. Tactical observations The Swedish interviewees were consistent in their belief that the armed status of their police force was neither a problem nor a topic of media speculation. Responses to the possibility of disarming the police, and moving to a model similar to the British or Norwegian models, were not positive. There was a view that the policing environment had become dangerous; that disarming the police would result in an increase in injuries or death. A junior officer commented: When [police] meet a group of 10 to 15 quite heavy criminals it has no effect if you pull out your baton or pepper spray. The only way to say them [sic] is to pull the gun, and fire a warning shot or something like that. … I am feeling a little bit safer when I put my gun on because there are more situations that I can handle.215 Clearly, the officer believes that the firearm increases his safety-level as it gives him an added capacity to deal with a large, violent group. The tactics of an unarmed police patrol would most certainly be different; they would most likely choose not to engage with such a large group based on the assessment that their tactical ability would amount to a force deficit. An 214 215 This narrative has been constructed by the researcher. Interviewee 9, Personal Interview. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 60 alternative approach would be to wait for additional staff. In Norway the view is that some police are in favour of arming because they fear the lack of available staff: I think the main thing – I don’t know if there are more police officers want to be armed today – was people feel the need, it’s the lack of police officers because … all the resources have gone to other things, we are fewer police officers in the street today, have to deal with more people.216 This discussion illustrates a potential risk factor in that armed police are more likely to engage in riskier encounters than unarmed staff, either out of feeling an added sense of safety, or an understanding that there might not be sufficient police to deal with a problem. Interviewee 9 commented on the ineffective nature of options such as pepper spray and expandable batons. COMPARISONS AMONGST OTHER NORDIC COUNTRIES Statistics collected on Swedish police shooting incidents varies from other Nordic countries. Unlike the practice in Denmark, Finland and Norway, when police threaten to use, but do not discharge a firearm in Sweden, the incident is not reported to authorities. A comparison of events amongst the four Nordic Countries is shown below in Figure 7.217 The red bars denote the annualised police use of firearms rate per million inhabitants of each country, adjusted for population (Denmark = 2.6; Finland = 2.5; Norway = 0.5; & Sweden = 2.9 incidents per year). The orange bars indicate the quantity of threats made. It is clear that Sweden has a similar number of shooting incidents compared with Denmark and Finland. 50 40 30 20 10 0 Denmark Finland Shots fired Norway Sweden Threatened Figure 7: Annual average number of incidents where police officers in service have used firearms for threat or effective fire per million inhabitants, Denmark (1996-2006), Finland (1997-2006), Norway (1996-2006) and Sweden (1996-2004) 218 216 Interviewee 6, Personal Interview. Knutsson, "Police Use of Firearms in the Nordic Countries." 218 Ibid., 120. 217 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 61 The disparity between the number of the shots fired in Norway and other countries is of particular interest as it suggests a restraining effect created by the Norwegian arming policy. A reasonable conclusion can be made that the restriction placed on Norwegian officers in deploying arms reduces the number of incidents where shots are fired. This is more striking when you consider that Norway has nearly double the incidents of Finland yet proportionately less shots fired. Nonetheless, despite the lack of data on threats, the quantities of shots fired are consistent amongst the routinely armed countries. The data also illustrates the concerns raised by the Danish police – discussed previously in the Norwegian case study – where there was a concern about the high number of firearms incidents. Deaths from police shooting produce a slightly different picture. Figure 8 shows population adjusted annualised shootings amongst the Nordic countries Swedish shootings result in fewer deaths than in Denmark but more than in Finland or Norway. Deaths in England and the USA are also included to act as a benchmark. 1.3 1.24 1.2 1.1 1 annual average deaths 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.184 0.112 0.1 0 Denmark 0.04 0.056 Finland Norway 0.044 Sweden England USA Figure 8: Annual average number of deaths by police shooting per million inhabitants (1996-2006) 219 It is interesting to compare deaths by shooting in England and Finland. The English Police, ostensibly unarmed, cause more deaths than Finland per capita which has an armed police force. Finland, which has a routinely armed police force, has less deaths that the Norway. In the end, this revealing factor disputes the proposition that a routinely armed police force will result in more deaths. The data thus far indicates that deaths relate to police departmental firearms policies and perception of threat, as opposed to availability of firearms. 219 Knutsson "Police Use of Firearms – a Comparison" The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 62 EMERGENT FACTORS In summary, there was a general sense from all interviewees that the armed status of the Swedish police did not negatively impact on the police-public relationship. They acknowledged sensitivity about an increase in an aggressive appearance. When comparing the views of the Swedish interviewees with the Norwegians, there was an overwhelming sense that the Swedish felt an obligation to maintain control of a situation and not cede control to the ‘bad guys’. In comparison, the Norwegians took the view that it was better if no one got hurt, as the ‘bad guys’ would come to police attention again. Also revealing, from the Skåne data, is the high proportion of ‘panic-shooting’ occurring in situations of self-defence in Sweden. 4.5 Emerging Issues PERCEPTION OF THREAT – CULTURAL DIFFERENCES One of the major questions arising from the case studies is the variance in how officers perceive threats. A recent examination of different policing styles and the use of force has found that an officer’s perception of threat is determined by cultural and environmental factors.220 The study was constructed using the following scenario; officers approach a ‘suspicious’ vehicle with tinted windows, the officers detect the smell of cannabis, but then the vehicle drives off, the police engage in a pursuit, stop the vehicle, and passengers decamp with a firearm. The scenario was played out to focus groups of police officers in Australia, Brazil, England, Germany, the Netherlands, and Venezuela. Discussions amongst the focus groups provided a number of useful insights. The most significant was how threat perception differed in each country. Officers from Latin America consistently agreed that their initial approach required weapons to be drawn, as it was more than likely that the occupants of the vehicle would be in possession of firearms (and some even believed that they would be in possession of grenades). This, of course, was not an option for unarmed English officers. Discussions amongst the English officers centred on how and at what point armed response units should be requested or deployed. (The English focus groups included both routine unarmed frontline police and members of an ARV). Dutch police officers, which are routinely armed, agreed that their initial approach would be without firearms drawn. The study concluded that each focus group apportioned risk or threat based on their direct experience of similar real-world circumstances. 220 P.A.J. Waddington, Otto Adang, David Baker, Christopher Birkbeck, Thomas Feltes, Luis Gerardo Gabaldón, Eduardo Paes Machado and Philip Stenning, "Singing the Same Tune? International Continuities and Discontinuities in How Police Talk About Using Force," Crime, Law and Social Change 52.2 (2008). The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 63 This level of diversity, based on the cultural background (not to mention social background and history) of each focus group, undermines somewhat the views that armed police results in the forceful style of American ‘gun-driven’ “dirty harry” policing: it is possible for police to be armed and approach a stopped vehicle without weapons drawn. The diversity is well considered in the conclusion of Waddington et al.; police from Europe and Australia were wary of provoking a confrontation – they believed that their initial behaviour should be low-key so that the incident could be managed without the need for force. The Latin American police, however, showed no such appreciation; they believed that confrontation was inevitable.221 A most curious observation found was in the difference of tactics discussed by the unarmed and armed English police. The unarmed police tended to favour chasing after the occupants of the vehicle once the vehicle had stopped whereas the armed police did not. They seemed more aware of the risks of chasing an armed offender once a sightline has been lost. 221 Ibid. 64 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy Chapter 5 – Interpretation & Analysis 5.1 Introduction Throughout the preceding chapters, risk factors to the police-public relationship have emerged through the study of the literature, field interviews and case studies. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss and evaluate the risk factors identified. It begins with a brief discussion of two main themes that have emerged from the research findings. The risk factors are then considered in terms of how they might affect the police-public relationship through threats to police legitimacy, threats to police safety and threats to public safety. 5.2 Interpretation There are two prominent themes emerging from the research findings that suggest a way to understand potential impacts on the police-public relationship. Firstly, that for the relationship to remain functional, the police must maintain a high level of police legitimacy. This is evident in the work of Kääriäinen, Moll, Punch, Rappert, Reiner, Squires and Kennison, and Waddington.222 Also applicable, in jurisdictions that are based on the English ‘modern policing’ model, is the ‘policing by consent’ approach. All the interviewees consistently referred to this during the field research as an important part of the police-public relationship. Secondly, that the degree of police legitimacy can be affected by the manner in which firearms are used by the police.223 For instance, Punch, and Squires and Kennison, suggest that the de Menezes incident has the potential to permanently damage the legitimacy of the English police.224 In the de Menezes shooting, the Kratos policy dictated how the firearms were to be used, and it was the shooting officer’s belief that de Menezes posed a real threat.225 The data from the case studies has also shown that the link between police policies and fear perception plays a part in the incidence of police shootings. For instance, the nonroutinely armed status of the Norwegian police results in fewer shooting incidents compared to Denmark and Sweden (see Figure 7, p.60) but more deaths than in routinely armed 222 Kääriäinen, "Why Do the Finns Trust the Police?.", Kääriäinen, "Trust in the Police in 16 European Countries: A Multilevel Analysis.", Moll, Improving American Police Ethics Training: Focusing on Social Contract Theory and Constitutional Principles, ibid, Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force, Rappert, "Constructions of Legitimate Force. The Case of Cs Sprays.", Reiner, The Politics of the Police, Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response. 223 Kääriäinen, "Trust in the Police in 16 European Countries: A Multilevel Analysis.", Rappert, "Constructions of Legitimate Force. The Case of Cs Sprays.", Waddington, Adang, Baker, Birkbeck, Feltes, Gerardo Gabaldón, Paes Machado and Stenning, "Singing the Same Tune? International Continuities and Discontinuities in How Police Talk About Using Force." 224 Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force, Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response. 225 Independent Police Complaints, Stockwell One : Investigation into the Shooting of Jean Charles De Menezes at Stockwell Underground Station on 22 July 2005. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 65 Finland. These themes, and the way in which they interact, are shown in a graphical representation in Figure 9. !"#$%&'!()#$%*+&#,-$"./0$! )*+,-,./0120-*.34.5 !"#$%&'()*(+*,-&./#0&*(1&-)$2("&'$234 !"#$%& !'(#$% !1')5#'6("#$%&'4 )*+,-40+4/,5,67-2 '340*80!9479630120)*+,-4 !*+,-40"8!-49 9,3:0)49-4)5,*. !*+,-40 )*+,-2 !"#$%&'3()*!72*$)*,(8&-)$2(732(&"(#'534 Figure 9: Factors affecting the relationship between the police and the public This interpretation is used to guide the analytical process. First, risk factors to the police-public relationship are categorised in relation to the potential ways they may affect police legitimacy (Table 9). Those risk factors not likely to affect police legitimacy are arranged into two subsequent groups: risks to police safety (Table 10) and risks to public safety (Table 11). It is acknowledged that risks to police safety may have an indirect bearing on how police officers perceive risk, however, for the purposes of the analysis they are grouped separately. Table 9: Risk factors affecting police legitimacy Threats to police legitimacy Source 5.3.1 Increase the barrier between the public and police Literature, England, Norway 5.3.2 Frustrate or negatively impact upon the ability to police by consent Literature, England, Norway 5.3.3 Change from unarmed policing styles to use of more force and becoming more Literature, England militarized; Unnecessary increase in police weaponisation and militarization 5.3.4 Increase in unlawful or accidental deaths Literature The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 66 Table 10: Risk factors affecting police safety Threats to police safety Source 5.4.1 Policing is no less safe than other work environments Literature 5.4.2 The illusion of extended capacity and safety England, Norway 5.4.3 Police themselves will become victims of shooting by their own weapon, that not Literature, England, Norway all English officers are suited to using firearms and the cost of training would lead to a financial burden 5.4.4 An increased chance of police officer suicide England, Norway 5.4.5 Arming with a pistol will not make police safer as most criminals who use firearms Literature will use a rifle or shotgun; the arms race Table 11: Risk factors affecting public safety Threats to public safety Source 5.5.1 Increased use of firearms on the mentally ill and ‘suicide-by-cop’ Literature, Norway, Sweden 5.5.2 Increase in police shootings Literature, Norway, Sweden 5.5.3 A decrease in the sense of safety of society Norway 5.3 Threats to police legitimacy Moll suggests that in a democracy, social contract theory explains how society delegates policing functions to an independent, specialised and public body, governed under a legislative framework.226 The literature on policing also shows how the public’s level of satisfaction is linked to the degree of trust it has in the police, as well as the police’s degree of legitimacy.227 The following set of risk factors to the police-public relationship is discussed in terms of their ability to affect police legitimacy. DISCUSSION 5.3.1. Increasing the barrier between the public and police Concern that barriers would be created between the police and the public is one of the most common reasons cited against routinely arming the police. This concern was identified in the literature, and spontaneously emerged as discussion points in the English and Norwegian interviews. Reasons given in support of this concern include a belief that many people are afraid of firearms and ‘the gun’ – this was articulated by Swedish Interviewee 9 (section 4.4). 226 Moll, Improving American Police Ethics Training: Focusing on Social Contract Theory and Constitutional Principles. Kääriäinen, "Why Do the Finns Trust the Police?.", Kääriäinen, "Trust in the Police in 16 European Countries: A Multilevel Analysis.", Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force, Reiner, The Politics of the Police. 227 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 67 This concern was considered unfounded by the majority of Swedish interviewees. Police in Sweden have been armed for decades and the Swedish interviewees felt that it did not inhibit their ability to relate cordially or compassionately with the public. Some observed that the Swedish public did not notice firearms worn by officers. Waddington remarks that the current trend of wearing highly-visible jackets, stab resistant vests, expandable batons, pepper spray canisters and rigid handcuffs, makes it virtually impossible for members of the public to observe a holster holding a black pistol.228 Police officer interviewees conceded that police behave differently and that perhaps their demeanour becomes more serious and macho when armed, and that officers may keep their distance to ensure weapon retention. One Swedish officer commented that his demeanour was not affected by the fact that he was armed with a pistol; he considered his behaviour was affected instead by the surroundings or circumstances he found himself in. He stated that he had no qualms approaching and hugging a member of the public, in order to offer support and compassion, and that he did not feel unapproachable. Both Swedish and Norwegian officers agreed, that when they do deploy firearms, they can appear more serious and less approachable but considered this was likely to be due to the situation they were dealing with, as opposed to their armed status. This is a key revelation; people in Norway (and New Zealand) observe different demeanours in armed police officers and attribute this to the fact they are wearing firearms, not because of the incident they are dealing with. There was a consistent view amongst the interviewees that if police in Norway became routinely armed, or in England for that matter, there would be an initial period of public ‘discomfort’ and uncertainty experienced. However it was considered that this would only be a transitional effect; once the public became accustomed to seeing police wearing a pistol, then any discomfort would recede provided that there wasn’t an increase in police aggression that would affect police legitimacy. While Sweden’s police are ranked below Norway’s in the level of police trust (see Figure 2, p.33) the former still ranks in the top group above the rest of Europe. Furthermore, both Finland and Denmark rank first equal with the highest levels of police trust, and both countries have routinely armed police. This shows that there is no direct detrimental link between the armed status of the police and the level of public trust in policing. Taking all these factors into account, this suggests that it is unlikely that the routine arming of the New Zealand Police would necessarily create a long-term distancing in the police-public relationship. 228 Interviewee 20, Personal Interview. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 68 5.3.2. Frustrate or negatively impact upon the ability to police by consent ‘Policing by consent’ is shown in the literature, and Norwegian and English case studies, as a defining feature of Anglo-Saxon policing.229 Bott and Buttle suggest that it is also a defining feature of New Zealand policing.230 Consent can be threatened by several factors, including a break down of police legitimacy or trust, and the emergence of militarisation or authoritarian regimes.231 It has been suggested that police reliance on the ‘threat of the firearm’ may erode police legitimacy because the public no longer explicitly consents to being policed; its members are ‘forced’ to submit to police by their fear of being shot. However, Swedish interviewees believed that they are able to ‘police by consent’ while routinely armed. It was also found that variances in risk perception existed amongst routinely armed police of different countries; this resulted in differing thresholds being required before a firearm was likely to be taken from the officer’s holster in response to different scenarios (refer section 4.5).232 Some commentators, like Buttle, argue that policing by consent means that police should be able to cause the public to comply entirely through acquiescence: In New Zealand we have a style of policing that is termed policing by consent; in that the public trust and respect for the office of constable enables officers to effect arrests without recourse to firearms. Basically this style of policing eschews firearms as a symbolic gesture that the police trust the public with their safety, which in turn facilitates public trust of the police. It is this bond of trust that enables policing to be conducted through the strength of the officers’ personality and their ability to embody and project the perception of authority.233 There appears to be very little support in the literature, or evidence from the case studies, to favour this position. The Swedish officers believed that disarming the Swedish Police would not result in ‘nicer’ criminals, nor lead to a disarmament of criminals. They were largely concerned with the influx of criminals from countries such as the Baltic States or Eastern Europe whom the interviewees considered had different attitudes to firearms to the general Swedish public. The Swedish officers also believed that a disarmed police force would inevitably lose the ability to maintain order and control in the current environment. Bittner 229 Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis, Buttle, "The Case against Arming the Police.", Reiner, The Politics of the Police, Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response. 230 Buttle, "The Case against Arming the Police.", Bott, The Police Arms Race. 231 Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force, Rappert, "Constructions of Legitimate Force. The Case of Cs Sprays.", Reiner, The Politics of the Police, Interviewee 22, Personal Interview, Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response. 232 Waddington, Adang, Baker, Birkbeck, Feltes, Gerardo Gabaldón, Paes Machado and Stenning, "Singing the Same Tune? International Continuities and Discontinuities in How Police Talk About Using Force." 233 Buttle, "The Case against Arming the Police." The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 69 suggests that policing ‘works’ because of the implicit threat to use force. The threat motivates compliance as the subject understands that noncompliance will most likely result in the actual use of force, and that the level of force cannot be overcome.234 The degree of force available to police must therefore be greater than the ability of the subject to resist. If not, police suffer a force deficit and the utility of the threat diminishes. This suggests the threat has to be more than symbolic; the threat must be a real threat of restraint. Reiner observes that ‘policing by consent’ does not require universal acceptance for it to exist or work; but police authority must be at least accepted by the majority.235 This means however, that there will be a minority that refuse to acquiesce, and so the police must have the actual ability to overcome their resistance. This is no different to the current situation; the police have armed options to use force to gain compliance, such as pepper sprays and batons, both of which can be lethal. The firearm serves the same function as the other weapons worn and deployed by police, but to a stronger degree. Waddington’s 2008 study shows that the routine arming of a police force doesn’t necessarily result in routine police officers un-holstering their firearm when approaching a member of the public. In consideration of the New Zealand context, there is no evidence in the data to suggest that New Zealand Police’s ability to ‘police by consent’ will be hindered by becoming routinely armed. New Zealand police officers already have recourse to use weapons, such as firearms or even pepper spray, if the circumstances are justified. A move to routine arming moves the firearms closer to the officer, from the police station or patrol vehicle to the officer’s holster. 5.3.3. Change from unarmed policing styles to those using more force and leading to an increase in weaponisation. It is important to clarify the reasoning for routinely arming a police force. The position posed by the New Zealand Police Association is that the routine arming of the New Zealand police will increase police safety.236 A pistol therefore, will address the force deficit when a police officer is confronted with an armed offender. It is not the expectation that a pistol will be the primary weapon deployed, when dealing with firearms incident-driven events. Current training promotes the use of semi-automatic rifles as the preferred tactical option when dealing with firearm incidents. It is not assumed that police officers in New Zealand will be routinely deployed with rifles, as in some other routinely armed jurisdictions. However, some literature indicates a concern that even the pistol will be increasingly used in circumstances 234 Bittner, "Florence Nightingale in Pursuit of Willie Sutton: A Theory of the Police." Reiner, The Politics of the Police. 236 New Zealand Police Association, "Police Association Conference Calls for General Arming of Police." 235 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 70 which would not warrant it, described by Buttle as ‘mission creep’ and ‘threshold creep’.237 Keith Locke, amongst others, refers to this as the ‘American’ style of policing.238 Buttle established that after the introduction of pepper sprays in England and Wales, officers relaxed the deployment threshold of the spray.239 He argues that a similar ‘threshold creep’ would occur after the introduction of routine armament. American research by Sousa, Ready and Ault, supports this view, indicating that officers equipped with Conducted Energy Devices (CEDs)240 deploy them in preference to other weapons such as pepper spray or batons. The group gathered data through observation of the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department during defensive training scenarios. Officers were split into two groups; both had handcuffs, pepper spray, baton and a pistol, but the test group also had a CED. During a scenario where officers were confronted with a verbally or physically aggressive subject, the majority of the control group deployed pepper spray or baton. The majority of the test group deployed the CED instead.241 However, when confronted with the lethal resistance scenario, the majority of the test group chose the CED instead of a firearm. The study therefore suggests an increased use of force during low-level incidents but lower levels of force than available in lethal scenarios. What is driving police decisions to use an increased level of force? Waddington suggests that lower level tactical responses, such as hand tactics, pepper spray or batons, are less advantageous to the officer, subject and public. The sight of officers grappling with an offender not only looks bad, which runs the risk of negatively affecting police legitimacy, but also increases the chances of injuries to officer and offender.242 It has also been found that police confrontations which require more than one tactical response, such as an attempted handcuffing, then pepper spray, then the baton, can ultimately produce a more aggressive subject.243 With this in mind, the choice of the Las Vegas group to deploy a CED in preference to pepper spray or baton, could well reflect its utility: a quicker rate of compliance; a reduced risk of officer or offender injury; and consequently a higher degree of police legitimacy. Furthermore, the choice to deploy a CED in preference to a firearm suggests that ‘threshold 237 Buttle, "The Case against Arming the Police.", Buttle, "The Shift from Defensive to Offensive Policing: Cs Spray and the Use of Force.", Buttle, "A Constructive Critique of the Officer Safety Programme Used in England and Wales.", William Sousa, Justin Ready and Michael Ault, "The Impact of Tasers on Police Use-of-Force Decisions: Findings from a Randomized Field-Training Experiment," Journal of Experimental Criminology 6.1 (2010). 238 Locke, Policing Bill - Third Reading, Parliametrary Debate.. Opponents to routine arming of police forces commonly cite the myth of American policing styles in their arguments. Simon Jenkins suggests that possession of firearms by police encourages “the ‘Hollywood Cop’ police image at the expense of community policing”, see Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response 106-07. Also see references to “Dirty Harry” in Edwards, Changing Policing Theories for 21st Century Societies 171-72. 239 Buttle, "The Shift from Defensive to Offensive Policing: Cs Spray and the Use of Force." 240 The most common CED is TASER 241 Sousa, Ready and Ault, "The Impact of Tasers on Police Use-of-Force Decisions: Findings from a Randomized Field-Training Experiment." 242 Wolf, Mesloh, Henych and Thompson, "Police Use of Force and the Cumulative Force Factor." 243 Ibid. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 71 creep’ can work in the favour of the offender and does not mean officers will always use all the force available to them. The majority of Norwegian interviewees believed routine arming will inevitably lead to a corresponding increase use of firearms by police. Statistics show that Norway has a lower shooting rate than the other routinely armed Nordic countries, and that the shooting rate of the other Nordic countries is consistent between them (Figure 7, p.60). It is possible that the Norwegian policy results in a restraining effect; the officer’s ability to deploy firearms is limited by a higher authority. Equally, the character of the Norwegian criminal environment could affect the comparative shooting rates: it could be dissimilar to the other countries and therefore be producing a reduced number of ‘firearm-worthy’ events. It is the researcher’s view that there are some differences in the criminal environment; the Norwegian interviewees have remarked that that crime pressures experienced in Sweden over the past two decades have only recently appeared in Norway. Swedish interviewees suggest that they are facing increasing pressures from European migration and movement due to their border proximities and Norway has been shielded from these problems by its geography. One way to measure comparative criminal environments is to look at homicide rates. It is accepted that this is a rather crude measure, however it does provide value in that comparisons give insight into local trends and contexts.244 The homicide rates of the Nordic countries, England, New Zealand, and the United Sates are shown below (Figure 10).245 6 5.57 5.5 5 100,000 population 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.24 2.5 2 1.5 0.99 0.80 1 1.01 1.28 1.48 0.5 0 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden NZ England USA Figure 10: Average Annual Homicide Rates 2003-2008 sourced from United Nations data (Norway, New Zealand and England do not have routinely armed police forces). When comparing the homicide data amongst the Nordic countries, it becomes apparent that crime pressures affecting Denmark, Norway and Sweden are broadly similar, whereas the rates in Finland are significantly higher. So, accepting all other things are equal, it could be concluded that the restraining effect of Norwegian policy probably impacts upon the shooting 244 S. McPhedran, J. Baker and P. Singh, "Firearm Homicide in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand: What Can We Learn from Long-Term International Comparisons?," Journal of Interpersonal Violence 26.2 (2010). 245 Data sourced from United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (http://data.un.org/). The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 72 rate (Figure 7, p.60). The rates of Denmark and Sweden are very close but it is noteworthy that the Finnish rate is more than double the other Nordic countries. (A possible explanation for the high Finnish homicide rate could be due to its large border with Russia and associated crime pressures originating there.) Despite the high homicide rate, Finland had a dramatically lower number of shooting incidents than Denmark.246 Knutsson suggests that the low incident rate in Finland is a result of police not having to fire warning shots. This results in a higher threshold to deploy, threaten and fire, than the other countries, and this reduces the decision-making process resulting in quicker decisions.247 This discussion highlights the high degree of variability in how firearms are being used by routinely armed police forces. Interpretation of the current Norwegian policy suggests a link between the restraining policy and the number of incidents and deaths. Equally, evaluation of the Finnish policy not to fire warning shots suggests that it has a restraining effect on the incidence of shootings. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that in addition to the availability of firearms, specific police firearms policies can have an effective impact on their use. Similarly, both the English and Las Vegas studies discussed in this section suggest that officers will increase or decrease their use of weapons in confrontations according to their perceptions of risk. Consequently, it cannot be deduced that routine armament will result in the use of more force by New Zealand Police. Waddington’s 2008 study found that there were cultural variations as to when officers chose to un-holster their firearm; German and Dutch officers preferred to keep their weapon holstered while police from Latin America chose not to do so.248 Therefore, the concerns expressed by Buttle and Locke, of threshold creep and the inevitability of American style policing, are largely unfounded; they are not necessarily going to occur in New Zealand should the police become routinely armed. 5.3.4. Legitimacy challenged through increase of unlawful deaths or accidental deaths Accidental deaths, or unlawful deaths, can challenge police legitimacy and professionalism.249 There was limited data from Norway and Sweden about unlawful or accidental deaths and how this might affect police legitimacy. Discussions with interviewees generally revolved around excessive use of force, such as cases of deaths caused by ‘sleeper-holds’ or positional 246 The lack of data from Sweden makes a direct comparison more difficult. Knutsson, "Police Use of Firearms in the Nordic Countries." 248 Waddington, Adang, Baker, Birkbeck, Feltes, Gerardo Gabaldón, Paes Machado and Stenning, "Singing the Same Tune? International Continuities and Discontinuities in How Police Talk About Using Force." 249 Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force, Rappert, "Constructions of Legitimate Force. The Case of Cs Sprays.", Reiner, The Politics of the Police, Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response, Waddington, "Armed and Unarmed Policing.", Interviewee 20, Personal Interview. 247 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 73 asphyxia in Norway. However the majority of interviewees were aware of the shooting of Jean Charles de Menezes at the Stockwell Underground Station, London, in July 2005. Punch observed that the shooting of de Menezes was “one of the most serious blunders in British Policing” and identified that such shootings have the potential to destabilise the police-public relationship.250 The de Menezes shooting was a product of police fear perception and police policy: the police feared that he was a suicide bomber and the Kratos policy provided a process for the police to take action. In New Zealand, the death of Halatau Naitoko in 2009 has raised similar concerns about police firearms policy. While de Menezes was shot deliberately, albeit due to mistaken identity, Naitoko was killed accidentally during a police incident. The New Zealand Coroner criticised the police in relation to this event, finding insufficient training of attending police officers.251 In the Skåne data, officers showed a tendency to un-holster their pistol when responding to certain types of incidents that would routinely be responded to by unarmed police forces. The Skåne data also showed a high incidence of panic shootings or shootings made before an officer was mentally prepared to shoot. This shows the pressure of making shooting decisions, in situations where an armed police officer must make decisions very quickly. Knutsson considered the decision making process when he observed the low rate of police shooting in Finland. He concluded that the lack of the requirement to fire a warning shot eased the decision making process and reduced the number of shootings.252 The Skåne data shows that despite the physical preparation of an officer to shoot, by un-holstering the firearm, the decision to shoot can occur extremely quickly and unexpectedly, as evidenced by the high number of panic shots fired. This supports the concern that ‘un-prepared’ shooting may lead to errors, which in turn leads to increased accidental or unlawful deaths. It is interesting to observe that it only takes one case of accidental or unlawful death, such as the de Menezes or Naitoko incidents, to pose a serious threat to police legitimacy or even the public’s sense of trust in the police. Legitimacy of police is intertwined with the sense of public trust in police. If the public lose trust, through police negligence in de Menezes or Naitako type events, then this will lead to police legitimacy being undermined. CONCLUSION This section explored several major threats to police legitimacy. The discussion started with a look at the commonly feared risk that a barrier would emerge between the police and public if the police become routinely armed. This fear was considered to be largely unfounded in 250 Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force p.174. Michael Fox, "Coroner Lashes out at Police," Auckland Now 23 August 2011. 252 Johannes Knutsson, Personal Interview. 2011 251 74 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy Sweden and therefore it is not necessarily believed to be a change factor relevant for the New Zealand environment. A similar conclusion was reached from the discussion of the effect of routine arming on the police’s ability to police by consent. The use of firearms is already available to the police when countering resistance and increased access is unlikely to result in a change to the New Zealand environment. There was a more varied response in the potential for the increased use of force, however an increase or decrease in the level of force used by police depended on the officer’s perceptions of risk. Consequently, it cannot be concluded that routine armament will result in the use of more force by New Zealand Police. However, this final risk factor is likely to be the factor most likely to pose a serious threat to police legitimacy should the New Zealand Police become routinely armed. 5.4 Threats to police safety The New Zealand Police Association reported that assaults on police increased by 32% over the decade ending 2009.253 They have also argued that routinely arming the police will lead to an increase in police safety and a decrease in serious assaults on police officers. However, there is evidence that suggests that routinely arming the police will coincide with an increased risk to officer safety.254 DISCUSSION 5.4.1. Policing is no less safe than other work environments The New Zealand Police Association suggested that routine arming of police would help increase the occupational health and safety of New Zealand police officers.255 However Buttle refutes this, suggesting that other professions, such as taxi-drivers, share similar occupational health and safety issues, and as society wouldn’t respond by arming taxi-drivers, nor should society arm the police. He also observes that workers from manufacturing, forestry, construction and leisure sectors have a higher incidence of injury or death than police.256 More, however, warns of the danger of such comparisons because other professions do not have direct contact with the most dangerous people.257 It is the role of the police officer to deal with the person who assaults or causes harm to the taxi-driver. Bittner gives us the best understanding of the police function: “something-that-ought-not-to-be-happening-and-about253 New Zealand Police Association, Towards a Safer New Zealand: Police and Law & Order Policies for the Future. Knutsson, "Police Use of Firearms in the Nordic Countries.", Knutsson "Police Use of Firearms – a Comparison" 255 New Zealand Police Association, Towards a Safer New Zealand: Police and Law & Order Policies for the Future. 256 Buttle, "The Case against Arming the Police." 257 Harry W. More, Critical Issues in Law Enforcement, Criminal Justice Studies, 4th ed. (Cincinnati, Ohio: Anderson Pub. Co., 1985). 254 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 75 which-someone-had-better-do-something-now!” 258 This description is not applicable to any other profession, except perhaps other emergency services, and certainly raises doubt over the utility of comparing the police work environment with taxi-drivers and forestry workers. Furthermore, interviewees from England and Wales, Norway, and Sweden discuss the impact of mental health deinstitutionalisation on police. Most often, when the mentally ill deteriorate and are required to be brought into custody for compulsory care it is the police, not mental health workers, who take them into custody. One of the most recent Norwegian police officer homicides was as a result of such a procedure.259 The nature of police work is unique. The unique nature requires police to be trained in defensive tactics, and the use of weapons including firearms, in order for the police to adequately fulfil their role.260 While a great deal of police interventions do not require the explicit use of force, the police deal with the most dangerous and volatile members of society, therefore police require a unique set of skills and equipment. 5.4.2. The illusion or extended capacity and safety Squires suggests that giving a firearm to an officer gives the officer an illusion of safety; that carrying a firearm will make the officer feel safer and better equipped to deal with more dangerous situations.261 Knutsson can see this in the analysis of the Norwegian and Swedish data; he concluded that an armed officer is more likely to rush into an armed or dangerous situation than an unarmed officer.262 The Norwegian interviewees who referred to the Danish effort to ‘stop and think’ had reached similar conclusions. Knutsson showed us that the number of officers present during armed incidents in Norway is more than double that in Sweden (see Table 3, p.21).263 The Skåne data showed that a high proportion of shootings were in self-defence and had a large ‘panic’ element to them. The comparison of the Norwegian and Swedish data suggests that Swedish police officers are more inclined to engage, with fewer officers, in dangerous situations than the Norwegians, and then find themselves shooting in self-defence. 258 Bittner, "Florence Nightingale in Pursuit of Willie Sutton: A Theory of the Police," 161. Interviewee 3, Personal Interview. 260 Alpert and Dunham, Understanding Police Use of Force : Officers, Suspects, and Reciprocity, Bayley, Patterns of Policing : A Comparative International Analysis, Bittner, "Florence Nightingale in Pursuit of Willie Sutton: A Theory of the Police.", Buttle, "The Shift from Defensive to Offensive Policing: Cs Spray and the Use of Force.", Moll, Improving American Police Ethics Training: Focusing on Social Contract Theory and Constitutional Principles, More, Critical Issues in Law Enforcement, Punch, Shoot to Kill : Police Accountability, Firearms and Fatal Force, Rappert, "Constructions of Legitimate Force. The Case of Cs Sprays.", Sousa, Ready and Ault, "The Impact of Tasers on Police Use-of-Force Decisions: Findings from a Randomized FieldTraining Experiment.", Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response, Interviewee 20, Personal Interview. 261 Squires and Kennison, Shooting to Kill? : Policing, Firearms and Armed Response. 262 Knutsson, Personal Interview. 263 Knutsson "Police Use of Firearms – a Comparison" 259 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 76 In the New Zealand policing environment, there is a similar delay to that of Norway, where officers must equip themselves with firearms, either by returning to the nearest police station, or waiting for a field supervisor to arrive with firearms. The routine armament of the New Zealand police will remove this delay, and therefore they could succumb to the same pressures as the Swedish police. 5.4.3. Police themselves will become victims of shooting by their own weapon, not all English police officers are suited to using firearms and the training cost would create a financial burden The concern that police will become victims of their own weapons was raised by Bott in the literature.264 It was also raised by a number of interviewees in England, who were concerned that not all English police are suited to using firearms and may become victims themselves, as a result of their failure to retain their firearms.265 In support of this concern, Swedish and Norwegian interviewees reflected upon an incident in Sweden where two patrol officers were executed using their service weapons. The statistics on the likelihood of this occurring suggests the risk is relatively low. Data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation show that 39 officers were killed by an offender using their own pistol between 2000-2009 in the United States, one was killed using a rifle and one with a baton.266 After adjustment for the New Zealand context, this would amount to a fractional rate of 0.039 officers in New Zealand per year, or one officer in New Zealand dying by their own weapon every 25 years.267 An earlier FBI study in 1992 looked at the behavioural characteristics of police officers most likely to be killed in duty. These characteristics are listed in the table below:268 264 Bott, The Police Arms Race. See section 4.2 266 Federal Bureau of Investigation, Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted, 2009 (2010). 267 This is formulated on the total number of US Law Enforcement Officers being 883,600 at 2008 (US Department of Labour http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos160.htm#projections_data) and 8840 sworn constabulary staff of the New Zealand Police, 2011. 268 Federal Bureau of Investigation, Killed in the Line of Duty: A Study of Selected Felonious Killings of Law Enforcement Officers (Washington: National Institute of Justice, 1992), 32. 265 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 77 Table 12: FBI Data of Police Officers Killed BEHAVIOURAL DESCRIPTORS OF VICTIM POLICE OFFICERS A friendly personality with all people Well liked by the community Uses less force than other officers would in similar circumstances Hard working Is service orientated and tends to perceive self as more public relations than law enforcement Uses force only as the last resort – peers would claim that they would use force at earlier point in similar circumstances Doesn’t follow procedures in regard to arrest, confrontations, traffic stops, doesn’t wait for backup Feels the ability to read others and situations and would likely drop guard as a result Tends to look for the good in others Laid back and easy going. There was a consistent view held by a number of interviewees in England that not all English police are suited to using firearms. Unlike Norway and New Zealand, only a small proportion of English police are trained and certified to use firearms. If the English forces were to transition to routine armament then officers would have to be assessed for their suitability for firearms use. Interviewees in the other jurisdictions did not hold this view. In Sweden, although there was a clear demand for an increase in training, all officers are trained to use firearms. Officers in New Zealand and Norway are similarly trained to use firearms. Some English interviewees also expressed concern about the cost of arming, initial training and ongoing training of officers, and the financial burden that would be placed on police budgets. All officers in New Zealand currently receive basic firearms training as a police recruit and six-monthly recertification training. The likelihood that some New Zealand officers would be unsuitable to deploy firearms is negligible – unsuitable recruits would be identified during initial training. In terms of officers becoming a victim of their own weapon, and the issues of weapon retention, the risk is real but negligible in New Zealand. 5.4.4. An increased chance of police officer suicide It was suggested by one English and one Norwegian interviewee that routine arming would result in an increase of police suicide through the increased availability of firearms. Others did not raise this, but there are several published articles on the matter comparing police officer suicide rates with other occupations.269 A 1999 study of federal and state police officers in 269 Peter M. Marzuk, Matthew Nock, K, Andrew Leon, C, Laura Pertera and Kenneth Tardiff, "Suicide among New York City Police Officers, 1977-1996," American Journal of Psychiatry 159.12 (2002), John M. Violanti, John E. Vena and James R. Marshall, "Suicides, Homicides, and Accidental Death: A Comparative Risk Assessment of Police Officers and Municipal Workers," American Journal of Industrial Medicine 30.1 (1996), J. M. Violanti, J. E. Vena, J. R. Marshall and S. Petralia, "A Comparative 78 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy Germany found that police officers had a high rate of suicide compared to other occupations, and found that the most common method was by firearm, although it did not specify if the firearm was police issue or private.270 It is difficult to draw any conclusions from the available data. But, if routine arming is linked to an increase in police suicide rates on the basis that officers had a greater access to firearms, then risks can be mitigated. For instance, Swedish police forces do not carry their weapons when they are off-duty; they are stored securely at police stations. The call to routinely arm the New Zealand police is silent on whether firearms would be personally issued and whether officers should be armed while they are off duty. 5.4.5 Arming police with a pistol will not make police safer as most criminals who use firearms will use a rifle or shotgun Bott suggested that routinely arming the police would result in a corresponding increase in criminal armament and that arming with pistols is an inadequate match for a rifle or shotgun.271 There was no corroboration in the data to support this view. Swedish interviewees commented that the degree of weapons used by the public had changed over the past 30 years. While knives were commonplace 30 years ago, firearms are predominant now. Similarly, Swedish interviewees commented that the level of violence within Sweden has not changed, but this violence was occurring in more public contexts. There is, however, no discernable link to this being an increase as a result of routine arming of police. Bott’s logic is correct in that a pistol is not a match for more powerful firearms such as rifles or shotguns. However, it is unlikely that police officers would choose to deploy with just a pistol against overwhelming opposition.272 Also, police firearms are not only being used in situations with an offender armed with a firearm. The Skåne data (Table 8, p.65) shows that in 27% of incidents, police are responding with firearms against offenders who are armed with sharp and blunt instruments. The lack of data on this topic makes it difficult to assess the extent to which it may be a risk factor in terms of the New Zealand context. CONCLUSION The most serious issue raised in this section, the illusion of safety, requires consideration if New Zealand police officers were to become routinely armed. As Knutsson suggests, routinely arming police may lead to a reduction in police safety if it makes officers more inclined to engage in dangerous situations. This calls into question the reasons for routinely arming the Evaluation of Police Suicide Rate Validity," Suicide Life Threat Behav 26.1 (1996), A. Schmidtke, S. Fricke and D. Lester, "Suicide among German Federal and State Police Officers," Psychological Reports 84.1 (1999). 270 Schmidtke, Fricke and Lester, "Suicide among German Federal and State Police Officers." 271 Bott, The Police Arms Race. 272 Interviewee 22, Personal Interview, Interviewee 20, Personal Interview. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 79 police, not for the reasons suggested by Buttle or Bott, but because the solid data collected suggests that police may be less safe. Routinely armed police also must be encouraged to understand the utility of the pistol and that it has the potential to mask perceptions of threat. Other risks to police safety are considered to be largely unfounded. The literature does not support Buttle’s view that policing is no less safe than other work environments. While there is a chance that officers can become victim of their own weapon, reported statistics suggests that the chances of this occurring in New Zealand are slim. 5.5 Threats to public safety The accidental shooting of New Zealander Halatau Naitoko highlights the inherent danger to the public when police use lethal force. Similarly, the shooting of de Menezes in England, highlights the fragility of the public’s trust in the police. These issues of accidental and unlawful shootings have been addressed in the previous section. However, this section looks at other potential threats to public safety associated with a routinely armed police force. DISCUSSION 5.5.1. Increased use of firearms on the mentally ill and ‘suicide-by-cop’ The trend to deinstitutionalise mentally ill persons can be seen in many western societies, and its impact on police, was evident in the three case studies when interviewees described changes in the policing environment. The Office of Police Integrity (OPI) of the Australian state of Victoria found that 53% of fatal police shootings during the period of 1990-2004 involved individuals suffering from a mental illness or disorder.273 The OPI also observed that this was due to a police culture of reliance on firearms most likely because of a lack of training to deal with and controlling situations involving the mentally ill.274 New Zealand shares a similar history and pathway of deinstitutionalisation275 and the New Zealand Police have already experienced several incidents including the mentally ill that resulted in fatalities, so parallels can be drawn from the Australian, English, Norwegian, and Swedish experiences. A number of previous New Zealand examples have shown how fatalities can lead to allegations of excessive use of force, such as the shooting incident in 2000 at Waitara involving Steven Wallace.276 In this case, the parents of Wallace brought a private murder case against 273 G. E. Brouwer, Review of Fatal Shootings by Victoria Police (Melbourne: Office of Police Integrity, 2005). Ibid. 275 Alun E. Joseph and Robin A. Kearns, "Deinstitutionalization Meets Restructuring: The Closure of a Psychiatric Hospital in New Zealand," Health & Place 2.3 (1996). 276 Independent Police Conduct Authority, Report on the Shooting of Steven Wallace (Wellington: Independent Police Conduct Authority, 2009). 274 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 80 the officer who shot their son. Likewise, criticism was levelled at police after the shooting of Stephen Bellingham in 2007.277 Neither Wallace nor Bellingham was armed with a firearm – Wallace was armed with a baseball bat and Bellingham armed with a hammer – but both cases are indicative of the difficulty police face when engaging with armed, volatile and violent offenders. Although neither the Wallace nor Bellingham cases were believed to be a case of ‘suicide by cop’ (SbC), the IPCA report into the 2009 shooting of Shayne Sime278 considers the part that suicide may have played leading up to Sime’s death. SbC is the phenomenon where “incidents in which individuals, bent on self-destruction, engage in life-threatening and criminal behaviour in order to force the police to kill them.”279 Lord and Sloop suggest that SbC differs from self-inflicted suicides in that SbC incidents usually commence with the commission of an armed criminal act and culminate in the failure to surrender a weapon to police.280 In the current New Zealand context, the initial armed criminal act would trigger an armed response from police including hostage negotiation. So, unless the initial act was directed at police, it is unlikely that the armed status of the police could be attributed to an increase in SbC. This topic was not identified as a priority risk factor during English, Norwegian or Swedish interviews but this maybe due to the low reported incidence. The experiences of the Victorian police indicate potential risk factors facing the New Zealand police. Both countries have experienced deinstitutionalisation which has resulted in an increase in the mentally ill living in the community. The risk of an increase of interaction with police was supported by the observations of all interviewees. The manner in which the police react in these situations is a result of the training provided to officers and therefore is a question of police policy. New Zealand officers currently interact with deinstitutionalised mentally ill and have statutory obligations to assist medical officers under the Mental Health (Compulsory Assessment and Treatment) Act 1992.281 Further training would be needed to ensure that appropriate tactical responses are used should the New Zealand Police become routinely armed. 5.5.2. An increase in police shootings It has been suggested that routine armament would result in an increase in police shootings. Norwegian and English interviewees supported this view. Knutsson has observed that Swedish 277 Independent Police Conduct Authority, Report on the Shooting of Stephen Jon Bellingham (Wellington: Independent Police Conduct Authority, 2009). 278 Independent Police Conduct Authority, Public Report into Police Shooting of Shayne Richard Sime (Wellington: Independent Police Conduct Authority, 2010). 279 V.J Gerbeth, "Suicide by Cop," Law and Order (1993)., cited by Vivian B. Lord and Michael W. Sloop, "Suicide by Cop: Police Shooting as a Method of Self-Harming," Journal of Criminal Justice 38.5 (2010). 280 Lord and Sloop, "Suicide by Cop: Police Shooting as a Method of Self-Harming." 281 Mental Health (Compulsory Assessment and Treatment) Act, No 46 (1992) The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 81 officers fire their firearms five times more often than Norwegians.282 The Skåne data shows that Swedish officers have a high proportion of ‘panic-shooting’ for self defence. Fears of American ‘nightmare’ scenarios are often raised, where police routinely have their firearm out and pointed at the person they are dealing with.283 These are valid concerns; one study of shootings by the Chicago police found that of 523 civilians shot by police over a four-year period in the 1970s, 14% were unintentional.284 However, there was a common feeling among all interviewees, albeit a pragmatic one, that accidents will happen; police officers make mistakes. One interviewee helps give perspective to the debate, drawing a parallel between arming police and the risks associated with having medical vaccinations. He notes that patients, or patient’s caregivers, routinely authorise the injection of a potentially hazardous substances on the basis that the risk is far outweighed by the benefit. So, will the public be willing to risk a similar risk in arming its police?285 Ultimately, though, the risk relies on the balance of being unarmed with that of the need for public safety. The machete example shown in the English case study illustrates this. In that instance, the police were fortunate that the offender did not decamp; as the initial responding police were unable to contain him they would have been unable to stop him from causing further harm. If he did, before the police with riot shields arrived, criticism would have been levelled against the police for failing to ensure public safety. When discussing public safety amongst the interviewees, one Swede commented that the current literature and research is problematic because it doesn’t take into account of the fact that people would be injured or killed if the police weren’t armed. This is a valid point. Ultimately, however, if the police use of firearms undermines public safety then it will call into question the degree of public trust in the police and the sense of police legitimacy. 5.5.3. A decrease in sense of public safety in society The Norwegian interviewees commented that the transition to a routinely armed police force would lead to a decreased sense of public safety. Because the image of firearms on police is not routine, as it is in Sweden, the sight of weapons on police indicates danger: the police must be armed because there is something dangerous occurring. This is similar to one of the findings in relation to police legitimacy; the Danish were less likely to feel safe as a result in the increase of police presence. Waddington, however, suggests that the ‘weapons effect’ – the visual prominence of firearms – is somewhat diminished now due to the amount of 282 Knutsson, Personal Interview. Locke, Policing Bill - Third Reading, Parliametrary Debate. 284 More, Critical Issues in Law Enforcement p.109. 285 Interviewee 20, Personal Interview. 283 82 The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy equipment currently being worn by police officers of today. Even some of the Swedish police officers interviewed believed that it would be likely that the public would not notice if police stopped wearing pistols. Nonetheless, the Norwegian interviewees consistently agreed that any decrease in the public’s sense of safety, due to seeing their police armed, would eventually diminish. Society would eventually get used to it. A similar response could be likely in New Zealand but it would depend on the visibility of firearms worn by police. It would also depend on the cultural variance in the link between police visibility and sense of safety (as discussed by Kääriäinen in section 3.2). CONCLUSION Routinely arming the police does pose genuine risks to public safety. The potential risk for injuries and deaths to the mentally ill appears to be the most likely risk, given the experiences in Victoria. Training, and deployment of appropriate tactical responses, can mitigate the extent of this risk. It is also likely that routine arming will result in an increase of shootings, with a real risk of unintentional harm or accidental shootings to the public. This has the potential to undermine the police-public relationship. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 83 Chapter 6 – Conclusions 6.1 Introduction The purpose of this chapter is to summarise the research findings and address issues that have emerged from the research analysis. Several recommendations are also made, particularly in relation to the role of policy in mitigating the effect of change should the New Zealand Police become routinely armed. 6.2 Research objectives, Summary of findings and Conclusions New Zealand is one of four OECD countries that has a routinely unarmed police force. Between 2008 and 2010, nine police officers were shot in New Zealand, two fatally. The New Zealand Police Association has now called for the police to be routinely armed in order to preserve police health and safety. What potential consequences would result if the New Zealand Police did become routinely armed? There are a number of commonly expressed fears at the prospect of routine arming, but a lack of evidence as to whether these fears are justified. This research project aims to contribute to the debate by exploring the role of firearms and the impact they have on the relationship between the police and the public. Policing is strategically important to the maintenance of modern society. It is one of the few branches of government that is empowered to use force in order to fulfil its mandate. In democratic societies the public effectively delegates their use of force to the state to allow the state to maintain social order. Yet, while police have the potential to use force, they don’t always exercise their right to use it. Force is used with discretion. The level of force used by police must be seen by the public to be appropriate and proportionate to the level of threat if police are to maintain public trust and therefore legitimacy. Should the police become routinely armed, would the level of force (or perceived level of force) appear disproportionate to the threat presented? Police legitimacy requires the majority of society to accept the lawful authority and right of the police to do ‘what they do’. The police do what they do by ‘public consent’. In New Zealand, police take this one step further and actively engage the public in taking responsibility for reducing crime. Would this relationship be affected by routine arming? Could police legitimacy, the public trust and belief in the current policing system be negatively affected? The police systems in England and Wales, Norway, and Sweden, have potential to contribute to the debate and to enhance understanding of the possible impact The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 84 routine arming may have in New Zealand. Like the New Zealand Police, police forces in these jurisdictions are highly civilianised, serve robust democracies, and police ‘by consent’. The first stage of analysis focused on factors that had the potential to destabilise police legitimacy. The common fear that a barrier would emerge between the police and public if the police become routinely armed is not consistent with the findings of the research. Similarly, it was found that routine armament is unlikely to impact significantly on the police’s ability to police by consent. There was a more varied response in the potential for routine armament to result in an increased use of force and this would depend on the officer’s perceptions of risk. The strongest risk to the police-public relationship could emerge through unlawful or accidental deaths. Another notable finding was the realisation that the Norwegian public observed different demeanours of police officers when they were armed as a result of an incident. It is believed that they attributed this to the fact that the police were wearing firearms, not because of the nature of the incident the police were dealing with. It is likely that this would be a similar case in New Zealand. The effect of routine armament on police officer safety was also examined. The key finding was that routinely arming police might lead to a reduction in police safety as officers may be more inclined to engage in dangerous situations. Evidence suggests this risk can be mitigated by training and policy. The risk that police would become victim of their own weapons was real but statistically low in the New Zealand context. Claims that policing was no less safe than other work environments were also found to be unsubstantiated. Threats to public safety were also evaluated. The potential risk for injuries and deaths to the mentally ill appears to be most likely, yet this can be mitigated by training, and deployment of appropriate tactical responses. It is also likely that routine arming will result in an increase of shootings. 6.3 Recommendations It has been suggested that police policies and the level of threat perception held by police affect the use of firearms by police. Routinely armed police should understand the utility and limitations of the firearm, and that being routinely armed has potential to mask perceptions of threat. Should the New Zealand Police become routinely armed, additional training would be required to educate officers on the psychological impacts of this. Similarly, police training must attempt to mitigate the occurrence of panic shooting and promote best practice when responding to incidents involving the mentally ill. This research project has been designed not to deliberate on the merits or need of routinely arming the New Zealand Police. Instead, it is hoped that the case studies, analysis The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 85 and conclusions will help inform the decision makers of the potential consequences of such a decision. The research findings, and subsequent analysis, need to be taken with caution. They are largely based upon the opinions of criminologists and police practitioners as well as a selection of published theory. Further research and analysis is recommended, particularly to investigate the views of the public. 6.4 Reflection The Anglo-Saxon tradition of policing by consent requires positive and functional relationships with the majority of the public being policed. This means that the police-public relationship is vitally important. While some commentators celebrate the tradition and character of New Zealand policing, and Squires and Kennison observe a similar tradition in England, the mythical benign-bobby and the golden age of policing are now remnants of history. The shooting of nine police officers, two resulting in death, attests to this. The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 86 References "Arming Police Not in Public's Interest." Editorial. The Dominion Post 29 August 2011. Print. 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It is envisaged that some participants will be qualified to speak about more than one jurisdiction. Questions for all interviewees Thinking about your territory, state or country: • How would you describe the relationship between your police and public? • How would you describe the public’s perception of corruption? • What changes have you observed of your police force’s use of force over the past decade? Your personal views (not attributed to your national police force): • Do you agree with the armed status of your police force? • Would you like to see it changed? • Is your sense of personal safety affected by the armed status of your police? Thinking about changes in the police “customer base” over the past 25 years: • Has the criminal fraternity become more violent? • Have the police before more violent? Thinking about Police use of force: • Does routinely arming the police make officers safer and less prone to physical attack? Jurisdictional specific questions Specific questions about Norway: • What do you think that about the change in arming policy of the Norwegian Police? Has this increased or decreased police officer safety? • How have the Norwegian public responded to the police’s greater access to firearms? • Why do you think that the Norwegian police haven’t become routinely armed? • Has the arming policy made the Norwegian Police less approachable? Specific questions about Sweden: The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy 94 • Do you think that Sweden routinely armed their police for the right reasons? • Has routine arming increased or decreased police officer safety in Sweden? • Has there been an increase in police shootings since Sweden routinely armed the police? • Why did Norway not follow Sweden when they routinely armed the police? Thinking about England & Wales: • Is the British arming model (routinely unarmed with specialist squads) the best? • How would the British public perceive a routinely armed police force? • How similar are Scandinavian and British police forces? Do they share similar approaches or policy to policing? Thinking about New Zealand: • Do you agree with the view that routine arming the NZ Police will make them less approachable and if so, then why? • Do you think that routine arming the NZ Police will increase safety? The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy A2. Pictures for reference Swedish Police Officers armed with sidearms Figure 11: Swedish Police Officers armed with pistol286 MP5 sub-machine gun Figure 12: MP5 sub-machine gun worn by an English Police officer outside Parliament, London287 286 287 Stockholm County Police, Stockholm County Police (Stockholm: Stockholm County Police, 2006). Photograph Source: Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Police.gun.1.london.arp.jpg 95 96 View publication stats The Strategic Impact of routine arming the New Zealand Police | Dissertation © 2012 Ross Hendy