The Big Truth

On a crisp March day in Hyde Park, a group of people, most of whom have never met face to face, are having a reunion. Twenty undergraduate and graduate researchers, administrators, and professors cram into the former servants’ quarters of a converted mansion. Some find seats around a long table, while others spill into the hallway or perch beneath a whiteboard on which is scrawled “Winter 2022. Stated Motives Analysis.”

Mateo Garcia, a student research supervisor, sits at a computer. His screen bears the words “Project Insurrectionists.”

“Today’s the first time I’m seeing a lot of these people in person,” Garcia says. He nods toward a lanky student he’d previously encountered only on video. “He’s much taller than I thought.”

Seated at the end of the table is the crew’s patriarch, Robert Pape, with his frameless glasses, navy blazer, blue shirt and tie, and easy smile. He has a matter-of-fact way of presenting complicated information, which is in keeping with his mission. As the director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, the 62-year-old University of Chicago political science professor is trying to understand and to explain American political violence, largely through the prism of the January 6, 2021, insurrection.

Gathered before him is his investigative team, which combs through every detail of court filings, press clips, social media posts, and virtual detritus seeking clues about people who would resort to violence to overturn an election. What these researchers have discovered so far has engaged and disturbed government officials and others concerned that the storming of the Capitol was not a culminating event but an opening volley. While the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the United States Capitol focused on the top-down planning behind the mob action, Pape and his team have homed in on the foot soldiers being driven to attack. In addition to illuminating who the insurrectionists are and what motivated them that day, they’ve also established that millions of other Americans sympathize with their cause.

Where this work is taking place — the University of Chicago — is both irrelevant and critical. Two years before this gathering, the COVID-19 pandemic rendered CPOST a virtual operation. To Pape, this was the proverbial blessing in disguise. No more researchers taking turns on the computers in CPOST’s small suite of offices atop this mansion. No more navigation of complicated schedules to get everyone in the same place at the same time. Most of this research was being conducted online anyway. “We are 60 percent more productive than we ever were,” Pape boasts. At one point, two of CPOST’s full-time staffers lived in Portugal. One key member is based in New Jersey, another in New Hampshire. “We have a small, smart army of researchers who work for us remotely,” says Pape, who operates out of a converted back bedroom in his south suburban home.

At the same time, he doubts this project could have originated anywhere other than Chicago — the university or the city. The school gave Pape a break from teaching this past year so he could focus on research, and he has been productive. He has authored or coauthored articles in the and the , among other outlets, and CPOST has issued numerous reports since the insurrection. Although Pape has consulted with multiple presidential administrations, he has been particularly in demand of late. He spent two days briefing the Biden administration at the White