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    Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019
    Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019
    Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019
    Ebook280 pages2 hours

    Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019

    By International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA

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    About this ebook

    IRENA’s latest global cost study shows solar and wind power reaching new price lows. The report highlights cost trends for all major renewable electricity sources.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherIRENA
    Release dateJun 1, 2020
    ISBN9789292602529
    Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019

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      Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019 - International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA

      Copyright © IRENA 2020

      Unless otherwise stated, this publication and material herein are the property of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and are subject to copyright by IRENA.

      Material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that all such material is clearly attributed to IRENA and bears a notation of copyright (© IRENA) with the year of copyright.

      Material contained in this publication attributed to third parties may be subject to third-party copyright and separate terms of use and restrictions, including restrictions in relation to any commercial use.

      ISBN 978-92-9260-244-4

      Citation: IRENA (2020), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019,

      International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.

      About IRENA

      The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge, and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. An intergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org

      Acknowledgements

      IRENA is grateful for the valuable contributions of Dolf Gielen, Francisco Boshell, Ricardo Gorini, Jack Kiruja, Paul Komor, Toshimasa Masuyama and Binu Parthan (IRENA) in the preparation of this study. This report benefited from the reviews and comments of numerous experts, including Oliver Baudson (TSK Flagsol), Volker Berkhout (Fraunhofer-IEE), Jürgen Dersch (DLR), Massimo Falchetta (ENEA), Lena Kitzing (DTU), Elvira Lopez Prados (Acciona), Marta Martinez (Iberdrola), Gaëtan Masson (IEA PVPS), Christoph Richter (SolarPACES), Sune Strøm (Ørsted), Ryan Wiser (LBNL) and Rina Bohle Zeller (Vestas).

      Contributors: Michael Taylor, Pablo Ralon, Harold Anuta and Sonia Al-Zoghoul (IRENA).

      For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.org

      This report is available for download: www.irena.org/publications

      Disclaimer

      This publication and the material herein are provided as-is, for informational purposes.

      All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of all material featured in this publication. Neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other, third-party content providers or licensors provides any warranty, including as to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose or use of such material, or regarding the non-infringement of third-party rights, and they accept no responsibility or liability with regard to the use of this publication and the material therein.

      The material contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA, nor is it an endorsement of any project, product or service provider. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area, or their authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries

      Photographs are from Shutterstock unless otherwise indicated.

      FOREWORD

      The world changed drastically in the opening months of 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic forcing much of the world into lockdown. Now, as we move towards the new, post-COVID normality, renewable power generation must form a key part of global economic stimulus measures.

      Installing new renewables increasingly costs less than the cheapest fossil fuels. With or without the health and economic crisis, dirty coal plants were overdue to be consigned to the past. But the cost data presented in this report – compiled from 17 000 real-word projects – confirms how decisively the tables have turned.

      More than half of the renewable capacity added in 2019 achieved lower electricity costs than new coal, while new solar and wind projects are also undercutting the cheapest and least sustainable of existing coal-fired plants. Auction results show these favourable cost trends accelerating, reinforcing the case to phase-out coal entirely.

      Next year, up to 1 200 gigawatts of existing coal-fired capacity could cost more to operate than new utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) costs to install, the report shows. Replacing the costliest 500 gigawatts of coal capacity with solar and wind would cut annual system costs by as much as USD 23 billion per year and reduce annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by around 1.8 gigatonnes, or 5% of last year’s global total. It would also yield a stimulus worth USD 940 billion, or around 1% of global GDP.

      Generation costs for onshore wind and solar PV have fallen between 3% and 16% yearly since 2010 – far faster than anything in our shopping baskets or household budgets. Renewables have outpaced fossil fuels in new power capacity additions overall since 2012. They are emerging as the default choice for new projects everywhere. Now, crucially, their continued cost decline means the world can afford to be ambitious amid the crisis.

      Post-pandemic stimulus packages would be greatly enhanced by these clean, easily scalable, cost-effective energy solutions. Scaling up renewables can boost struggling economies. It can save money for consumers, pique the appetites of investors and create numerous high-quality new jobs.

      Renewables, meanwhile, align recovery measures with climate resilience, sustainable development and other medium- and long-term policy goals. Cutting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in line with the Paris Agreement remains as crucial as ever in the wake of COVID-19, while also offering tremendous potential to put millions of people back to work.

      The same energy infrastructure needed to meet today’s needs can also pave the way for a far better future. Investment in renewables equates with investing in health, sustainability and inclusive prosperity. Moreover, as the report underscores, the more we deploy these technologies, the more their costs will fall.

      Francesco La Camera

      Director-General

      International Renewable

      Energy Agency

      CONTENTS

      Figures

      Tables and boxes

      Abbreviations

      Highlights

      Executive Summary

      01 LATEST COST TRENDS

      Renewable power generation cost trends: 2010 to 2019

      Auction and power purchase agreement data: a crystal ball into the near future

      Costs trends by technology: 2010 to 2019

      New solar PV and onshore wind: increasingly cheaper than the marginal costs of existing coal-fired capacity

      Learning curves for solar and wind power technologies

      Investment trends

      Sensitivity to cost of capital

      02 ONSHORE WIND

      Highlights

      Introduction

      Wind turbine characteristics and costs

      Onshore wind total installed costs

      Capacity factors

      Operation and maintenance costs

      Levelised cost of electricity

      03 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS

      Highlights

      Recent market trends

      Total installed costs

      Capacity factors

      Operations and maintenance costs

      Levelised cost of electricity

      04 OFFSHORE WIND

      Highlights

      Offshore wind industry trends

      Total installed costs

      Capacity factors

      Operations and maintenance costs

      Levelised cost of electricity

      05 HYDROPOWER

      Highlights

      Total installed costs

      Capacity factors

      Operation and maintenance costs

      Levelised cost of electricity

      06 GEOTHERMAL

      Highlights

      Introduction

      Total installed costs

      Capacity factor

      Levelised cost of electricity

      07 BIOENERGY

      Highlights

      Biomass feedstocks

      Installed cost trends

      Capacity factors and efficiency

      Operation and maintenance costs

      Levelised cost of electricity

      08 CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER

      Highlights

      Total installed costs

      Capacity factors

      Operation and maintenance costs

      Levelised cost of electricity

      REFERENCES

      ANNEX I. Cost metric methodology

      ANNEX II. The IRENA Renewable Cost Database

      ANNEX III. Regional groupings

      FIGURES

      Figure ES.1 Global weighted average levelised cost of electricity from utility-scale renewable power generation technologies, 2010 and 2019

      Figure ES.2 Global weighted average LCOE and Auction/PPA prices for CSP, onshore and offshore wind, and solar PV, 2010 to 2023

      Figure 1.1 Global LCOE from newly commissioned utility-scale renewable power

      Figure 1.2 Global LCOEs from newly commissioned utility-scale renewable power generation technologies, 2010-2019

      Figure 1.3 The LCOE and PPA/Auction prices by project for solar PV, onshore wind, offshore wind and CSP, 2010-2023

      Figure 1.4 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for solar PV, 2010-2019

      Figure 1.5 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for onshore wind power, 2010-2019

      Figure 1.6 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for offshore wind power, 2010-2019

      Figure 1.7 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for CSP, 2010-2019

      Figure 1.8 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for hydropower, 2010-2019

      Figure 1.9 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for bioenergy power, 2010-2019

      Figure 1.10 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for geothermal power, 2010-2019

      Figure 1.11 The global weighted-average LCOE and Auction/PPA price learning curve trends for solar PV, CSP, onshore and offshore wind, 2010 – 2021/23

      Figure 1.12 Investment value of new renewable capacity added by year, 2010-2019

      Figure 1.13 Investment value and new capacity added by renewable power technology, 2010-2019

      Figure 1.14 Offshore wind project LCOE compared to adjusted Auction/PPA pricing, 2010-2025

      Figure 2.1 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for onshore wind, 2010-2019

      Figure 2.2 Weighted average rotor diameter and name plate capacity evolution, 2010-2018

      Figure 2.3 Wind turbine price indices and price trends, 1997–2019

      Figure 2.4 Total installed costs of onshore wind projects and global weighted average, 1983-2019

      Figure 2.5 Onshore wind weighted average total installed costs in 15 countries, 1984–2019

      Figure 2.6 Historical onshore wind weighted average capacity factors in 15 countries, 1984–2019

      Figure 2.7 Full-service (initial and renewal) O&M pricing indexes and weighted average O&M costs in Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, United States and Norway, 2008–2019

      Figure 2.8 LCOE of onshore wind projects and global weighted average, 1983–2019

      Figure 2.9 The weighted average LCOE of commissioned onshore wind projects in 15 countries, 1984–2019

      Figure 3.1 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for PV, 2010–2019

      Figure 3.2 Average monthly solar PV module prices by technology and manufacturing country sold in Europe, 2010 to 2020 (top) and average yearly module prices by market in 2013 and 2019 (bottom)

      Figure 3.3 Total installed PV system cost and weighted averages for utility-scale systems, 2010-2019

      Figure 3.4 Utility-scale solar PV total installed cost trends in selected countries, 2010-2019

      Figure 3.5 Detailed breakdown of utility-scale solar PV total installed costs by country, 2019

      Figure 3.6 Global utility-scale solar PV project levelised cost of electricity and range, 2010-2019

      Figure 3.7 Utility-scale solar PV weighted average cost of electricity in selected countries, 2010-2019

      Figure 4.1 Global weighted average and range of total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for offshore wind, 2010-2019

      Figure 4.2 Average distance from shore and water depth for offshore wind between 2000-2019

      Figure 4.3 Project turbine size and global weighted average turbine size and wind farm capacity for offshore wind, 2000-2019

      Figure 4.4 Project and weighted average total installed costs for offshore wind, 2000-2019

      Figure 4.5 Project and weighted average capacity factors for offshore wind, 2000-2019

      Figure 4.6 Offshore wind project and global weighted average LCOEs and auction/PPA prices, 2000-2023

      Figure B4.1 Floating offshore wind foundation types

      Figure B4.2 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for floating offshore wind, 2010–2022

      Figure 5.1 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for hydropower, 2010–2019

      Figure 5.2 Total installed costs by project and global weighted average for hydropower, 2010-2019

      Figure 5.3 Total installed costs for small and large hydropower projects and the global weighted average, 2010-2019

      Figure 5.4 Distribution of total installed costs of large and small hydropower projects by capacity, 2010-2014 and 2015-2019

      Figure 5.5 Total installed costs ranges and capacity weighted averages for large hydropower projects by country/region, 2010-2019

      Figure 5.6 Total installed costs ranges and capacity weighted averages for small hydropower projects by country/region, 2010-2019

      Figure 5.7 Large hydropower project LCOE and capacity weighted averages by country/region, 2010-2019

      Figure 5.8 Small hydropower project LCOE and capacity weighted averages by country/region, 2010-2019

      Figure 6.1 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for geothermal, 2010-2019

      Figure 6.2 Geothermal power total installed costs by project, technology and capacity, 2007-2021

      Figure 6.3 Capacity factors of geothermal power plants by technology and project size, 2007-2021

      Figure 6.4 LCOE of geothermal power projects by technology and size, 2007-2021

      Figure 7.1 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for bioenergy, 2010-2019

      Figure 7.2 Total installed costs of bioenergy power generation projects by selected feedstocks and country/region, 2000-2019

      Figure 7.3 Total installed costs of bioenergy power generation projects for different capacity ranges by country/region, 2000-2019

      Figure 7.4 Distribution of bioenergy for power total installed costs by technology, 2000-2019

      Figure 7.5 Project capacity factors and weighted averages of selected feedstocks for bioenergy power generation projects by country and region, 2000-2019

      Figure 7.6 LCOE by project and weighted averages of bioenergy power generation projects by feedstock and country/region, 2000-2019

      Figure 7.7 LCOE and capacity factor by project of selected feedstocks for bioenergy power generation projects, 2000-2019

      Figure 8.1 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for CSP, 2010-2019

      Figure 8.2 CSP total installed costs by project size, collector type and amount of storage, 2010-2019

      Figure 8.3 Capacity factor trends for CSP plants, 2010-2019

      Figure 8.4 Capacity factor trends for CSP plants by direct normal irradiance, 2010-2019

      Figure 8.5 The levelised cost of electricity for CSP projects, 2010-2019

      Figure 8.6 Levelised cost of electricity and auction price trends for CSP, 2010-2021

      Figure B8.1 Reconciling the LCOE of a benchmark CSP project to the PPA price for the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, Phase 4

      Figure A2.1 Distribution of projects by technology and country in IRENA’s Renewable Cost Database and Auction and PPA Database

      TABLES

      Table 2.1 Total Installed cost ranges and weighted averages for onshore wind projects by country/region, 2010 and 2019

      Table 2.2 Country-specific average capacity factors for onshore wind, 2010 and 2019

      Table 2.3 Regional weighted average LCOE and ranges for onshore wind, 2010 and 2019

      Table 3.1 Residential and commercial sector solar PV total installed cost by country or state, 2010-2019

      Table 3.2 Global weighted average capacity factors for utility-scale PV systems by year of commissioning, 2010–2019

      Table 3.3 Residential and commercial solar PV levelised cost of electricity by country or state, 2010-2019

      Table 4.1 Regional and country weighted-average total installed costs

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