Trump: The First Two Years

MILLER CENTER STUDIES ON THE PRESIDENCY

Marc J. Selverstone, Editor

University of Virginia Press

© 2018 by the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia

Trump’s Second Year © 2019 by the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia

All rights reserved

Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper

Trump’s First Year first published 2018

Trump: The First Two Years first published 2019

ISBN 978-0-8139-4279-7 (paper)

ISBN 978-0-8139-4280-3 (e-book)

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

The Library of Congress has cataloged the original edition, Trump’s First Year, as follows:

Names: Nelson, Michael, 1949–

Title: Trump’s first year / Michael Nelson.

Description: Charlottesville : University of Virginia Press, 2017. | Series: Miller Center Studies on the Presidency | Includes bibliographical references.

Identifiers: LCCN 2017055597 | ISBN 9780813941448 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780813941431 (e-book)

Subjects: LCSH: Trump, Donald, 1946– | United States—Politics and government—2017–

Classification: LCC E912 .N45 2017 | DDC 973.933—dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017055597

Cover art: SOPA Images Limited/Alamy Stock Photo

TO MY BELOVED WIFE, LINDA

CONTENTS

Acknowledgments

Introduction

1Trump Is Elected

2A Cycle of Decreasing Influence and Decreasing Effectiveness

3Forming (and Re-Forming) the Administration

4Executive Action

5Loci of Opposition: The Courts and the States and Cities

6Congress and Domestic Policy

7Communications

8Foreign Policy

9Prospects for Removal

Conclusion

Epilogue: December 1, 2017

Trump’s Second Year

Notes

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Trump: The First Two Years builds on my 2018 book Trump’s First Year with the addition of an extensive new chapter on Donald J. Trump’s second year in office. The entire project is infused with and inspired by the extensive and excellent work of the First Year Project of the University of Virginia’s Miller Center. The ripe fruits of that project may be plucked at its website, firstyear2017.org, as well as in various ebooks that have been published by the University of Virginia Press and a new bound volume edited by me, Stefanie Georgakis Abbott, and Jeffrey L. Chidester. Crucible: The President’s First Year includes project-commissioned essays by renowned scholars and practitioners such as H. W. Brands, Gary Gallagher, William Galston, David Greenberg, Melvyn P. Leffler, Sidney M. Milkis, Jeff Shesol, Stephen Skowronek, Alan Taylor, and Peter Wehner. My work on that book inspired this one. Particular thanks go to William J. Antholis, Director of the Miller Center and founder of the First Year Project; Barbara A. Perry, the Center’s Director of Presidential Studies; and, at the University of Virginia Press, Richard Holway, Senior Executive Editor, History and Social Sciences; copy editor Susan Murray; project editor Morgan Myers; marketing and sales director Jason Coleman; and publicity and social media director Emily Grandstaff. I am also grateful to my friend and colleague Air Force Captain Bradley DeWees of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government for giving the manuscript such a thorough and helpful read, as well as to Stephen Skowronek of Yale University and Bruce Miroff of SUNY Albany, who reviewed it for the Press.

INTRODUCTION

Donald Trump was fortunate to take office when he did. Unlike Abraham Lincoln, he did not have to deal with the secession of seven states during the period between his election and inauguration.¹ Unlike Richard Nixon, he did not inherit a war in which more than a half-million American soldiers were bogged down. Unlike Franklin D. Roosevelt and Barack Obama, he did not take the oath of office in the midst of a massive financial crisis. Although the world had its share of problems when the Trump presidency began on January 20, 2017, they were ongoing, not new or urgent. The domestic economy had been growing, slowly but steadily, for all but one of the previous twenty-three quarters. The annual rate of inflation was about 2 percent, and unemployment had recently dipped below 5 percent. The percentage of Americans who regard themselves as middle- or upper-class had reached 62 percent, a greater share than before the 2008–9 economic meltdown.² The stock market was booming: from a modern low of 6,547 in March 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had nearly tripled to 18,332 by Election Day. Unlike all of his recent Republican predecessors during the past three-fourths of a century, Trump took office as the head of a united party government, with a GOP majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Strong corporate earnings, along with investor confidence that Republican-sponsored tax cuts and deregulatory policies were in the works, helped trigger an additional surge in the stock market, which rose by 1,473 points (8 percent) between the election and inauguration.

The outlook for the Trump presidency was considerably less bright by November 8, the anniversary of his election. To be sure, the year was not devoid of accomplishments. Congress passed more than a dozen laws rolling back specific regulations issued late in the Obama administration. Most of them had been opposed by the business community, as were the many more regulations that several of Trump’s cabinet members and agency heads took steps to repeal. Trump was able to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court with another respected conservative jurist, Neil Gorsuch, and his administration moved steadily to fill the more than one hundred vacancies he inherited on the lower federal courts. Trump’s handling of the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma, which battered southern Texas and Louisiana in late August and Florida and neighboring states in early September, was generally applauded.

These successes were far outnumbered by Trump’s first-year failures. In the international arena, both allies and adversaries were bewildered by the president’s erratic policies and pronouncements. North Korea’s rapid advances in weapons technology meant that it was at least close to being able to launch ballistic missiles armed with nuclear weapons at its Asian neighbors and even the United States. The Republican president and Republican Congress failed to enact a single piece of significant legislation until September, when crises as varied as hurricanes and a looming shutdown of the federal government forced their hand. Federal courts struck down various administration actions. Several state and local governments openly defied some of Trump’s policies, especially concerning undocumented immigrants. His White House staff underwent unprecedented turnover, as members fell out with the president, each other, or both. Vacancies in important positions in the executive branch were filled at a glacial pace, slowing the administration’s efforts to direct the activities of the departments and agencies. Leaders in the business community, an important Republican constituency, resigned en masse from two presidential advisory boards. High-ranking military officers openly disputed some of the president’s words and actions. Democrats and even a few Republicans in Congress raised the possibility of removing Trump from office, either through the impeachment process or on grounds of psychological inability. A special counsel investigated possibly illegal actions involving the Russian government and the president, his family members, and close associates. Trump’s public approval rating sank below 40 percent within months of his taking office and remained at historically low levels for an elected first-year president for the remainder of the year.

Trump’s First Year reports and analyzes the president’s conduct during the twelve months (and a few weeks beyond) that followed his election. More than that, it embeds his first year in the larger context of the American political system, whose leading feature is fragmented power. After recounting Trump’s background and election in chapter 1 and laying the theoretical groundwork for assessing his presidency in chapter 2, the book chronicles and analyzes the formation (and ongoing re-formation) of the Trump administration (chapter 3) and his unusually early reliance on unilateral executive action (chapter 4). Subsequent chapters treat the president’s relations with other constitutional actors: the courts and the states and cities (chapter 5) and Congress (chapter 6). Chapter 7 concerns presidential communications under Trump, chapter 8 his foreign policies, and chapter 9 the discussions, unprecedented for a newly elected president, of removing him from office. The book concludes with an overall assessment of the remarkable year that followed Trump’s election, as well as a broader consideration of the contemporary American presidency.

1   TRUMP IS ELECTED

Donald Trump won an astonishing victory in the 2016 presidential election. At each turn of the electoral calendar, from June 16, 2015, when Trump announced he was running, until well into the evening of Election Day—November 8, 2016—political analysts of every stripe were confident that he would not be the forty-fifth president of the United States. Trump’s candidacy would not last long enough even to contest the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, many experts said. The world’s leading political betting firm made him a 100-to-1 long shot on the day of his announcement. The New York Daily News added a red nose and mouth to his photograph on its June 17 front page with the headline, Clown Runs for Prez.¹ The Huffington Post refused for months to report on Trump’s campaign as part of [our] political coverage. Instead we will cover his campaign as part of our entertainment section.² Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who knew Trump from her years representing New York in the Senate and had attended his (third) wedding in 2005, wrote, When Trump declared his candidacy for real in 2015, I thought it was another joke.³ Election-eve forecasts placed his chances of victory at 2 percent (HuffPost), 1 percent (the Princeton Election Consortium), or even 0 percent (the celebrated Democratic strategist David Plouffe).⁴ In a mood of ‘at long last’ and, yes, celebration, New Yorker editor David Remnick wrote an election-night article on the first woman president to be posted on the magazine’s website as soon as Clinton was declared the winner.⁵ One prominent political scientist whose statistical model forecast months before the election that the Republican nominee would win because the economic and political fundamentals were so favorable decided that Trump was such a bad candidate that the model did not apply.⁶

The presidential election was not the only one whose outcome surprised the experts. Most forecast that the results of the Senate elections, in which the Republicans were forced to defend more than twice as many seats as the Democrats, would turn over control of that chamber from the Republican to the Democratic Party. Wrong again. The Democrats gained just two seats, not the five they needed to secure a majority. Senatorial elections were on thirty-four state ballots in 2016, and for the first time in history, the same party whose presidential nominee carried each state also won its Senate contest. As Trump prevailed in all but twelve of these states, so did the Republican candidates for senator. Predictions for the House elections generally were that the Democrats would add fifteen to twenty seats, bringing them within striking distance of a majority. That didn’t happen either. With a near-record 98 percent of House incumbents reelected, Democrats gained a paltry six seats, leaving the Republicans in charge of a united party government—a newly inaugurated president and a majority of both houses of Congress—for the first time since Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected in 1952. Not many Republicans owed their election to Trump. Eighty-six percent of the party’s victorious House candidates ran ahead of him in their districts, and only 8 percent won by less than 10 percentage points. Even the six successful Senate candidates whom Trump outpolled in their states won landslide victories.⁷

Although surprising in its result, the 2016 election was less remarkable in its magnitude. It was not, as Trump claimed, a massive landslide victory, as you know, in the Electoral College, much less the biggest Electoral College win since Ronald Reagan.⁸ From 1788 to 2012, forty-five of fifty-seven presidential elections were decided by a larger electoral vote majority than Trump’s 306–232 victory over Clinton (304–227 after seven faithless electors voted for different candidates than the ones to whom they were pledged).⁹ In the seven elections that followed Reagan’s landslides in 1980 and 1984, the winning candidate outdid Trump in the Electoral College five times. In only four elections in two and a quarter centuries did the winner fail to secure more votes from the people than his opponent. Yet Trump ran a record 2.9 million votes behind Clinton in the national popular tally, and his postelection claim that between three and five million illegal votes [for Clinton] caused me to lose the popular vote was completely unsubstantiated by evidence.¹⁰

Similarly, although the election gave Trump a united party government, the Republican majority in both congressional chambers was perilously thin. In the House of Representatives, Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 241 to 194, and in the Senate by 52 to 48. In the face of cohesive Democratic opposition, this meant that any legislative proposal opposed by just 10 percent of Republican House members was unlikely to be enacted. Republican leaders would have to keep the party’s extremely conservative, nearly three dozen–strong, and highly unified Freedom Caucus on board in order to prevail, without alienating Tuesday Group moderate conservatives, greater in number but less disciplined.¹¹ In the filibuster-prone Senate, where it takes sixty votes to pass most legislation, the barrier to passage was yet higher. To enact even those few measures that require only a simple majority, all but two Republican senators would need to vote together.

An additional complication for President Trump arose from the nature of the election campaign waged by Candidate Trump, which was marked by name-calling and extravagant promises. He branded the leading Democratic contenders, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former secretary of state Clinton as Crazy Bernie and Crooked Hillary, respectively, and led chants of Lock her up! at campaign rallies. He challenged President Barack Obama’s bona fides as a natural-born citizen and, when Obama produced proof that he was born in Hawaii, suggested that the birth certificate is a fraud.¹² Most astonishing, in a video-recorded 2005 conversation with Access Hollywood host Billy Bush that became public one month before the election, Trump bragged that when he saw beautiful women, I just start kissing them. . . . And when you’re a star they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab ’em by the pussy.¹³

Nor did Trump spare Republican rivals Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, whom he dubbed Lyin’ Ted and Liddle Marco (Trump’s spelling).¹⁴ He dismissed Republican senator John McCain of Arizona, an authentic hero of the Vietnam War who endured unending torture as a prisoner of war rather than be released before his fellow captives, as not a war hero. . . . I like people who weren’t captured.¹⁵ Ignoring aides’ advice to apologize, Trump’s first campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, recalled, Donald Trump does what Donald Trump always does, which is he doubles down, calling a press conference to repeat his attack.¹⁶ Neither McCain nor any of the other four living former Republican nominees for president regarded Trump as fit to hold the office. Former president George W. Bush let it be known that he would not vote for Trump, and his father, former president George H. W. Bush, called him a blowhard and voted for Clinton.¹⁷ The party’s 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney, publicly excoriated Trump’s bankruptcies in business as well as his personal qualities, the bullying, the greed, the showing off, the misogyny, the absurd third-grade theatrics.¹⁸ All of the leading conservative publications actively opposed Trump.¹⁹

The release of the Access Hollywood recording raised the level of intraparty opposition to Trump. Senator McCain, the Republican candidate for president in 2008, called on him to withdraw from the election, as did Republican National Committee (RNC) chair Reince Priebus, Senator John Thune of South Dakota, Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, and other party leaders. Trump doubled down once again, dismissing his vile language as locker room banter and attacking former president Bill Clinton as the greatest abuser of women in the history of American politics and Hillary Clinton as an enabler who attacked the women who Bill Clinton mistreated afterward.²⁰ Trump even brought four of President Clinton’s accusers to the second presidential debate. He then threatened to sue (but never did) the more than a dozen women—all of whom he said were horrible, horrible liars—who came forward to accuse him of grabbing their breasts, putting his hand up their skirt, kissing them aggressively, or other sexual misconduct.²¹ One result of Trump’s tawdry campaign was that he took office with almost no support from his party’s elected leadership that was rooted in anything deeper than short-term political expedience, chiefly their fear of alienating his followers.

Trump’s campaign promises stretched far beyond realism. Concerning the economy, he pledged to create 25 million jobs in ten years and to eliminate the $19 trillion national debt two years sooner than that, historically unprecedented targets that somehow would be reached while reducing taxes, increasing defense spending, and sav[ing] Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security without cuts.²² The hourly minimum wage would be raised to at least $10.²³ He would not only build a great, great wall on our southern border, Trump promised, but also have Mexico pay for that wall.²⁴ Of the at least 11 million people that came in this country illegally, he said, they will go out.²⁵ We’re going to win so much, Trump declared, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning, you’re going to come to me and go, ‘Please, please, we can’t win any more.’ ²⁶ Some Democrats were so offended by Trump’s policies and demeanor that they organized a postelection campaign to persuade electors to deny him a majority of electoral votes and throw the election into the House.²⁷

THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

The same freewheeling and aggressive style that alienated Democrats during the election solidified Trump’s support among many Republican voters, who regarded his rhetorical excesses as evidence of authenticity, undiluted by the normal social constraints that Trump dismissed as political correctness. As the political scientists John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck have argued, Trump’s campaign for the Republican nomination became a vehicle for a different kind of identity politics than that centered on groups historically oppressed by race, gender, or sexual orientation. It was instead oriented around white Americans’ feelings of marginalization in an increasingly diverse America.²⁸ Supporters cheered when Trump said that Mexican immigrants were bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime[,] they’re rapists²⁹ and when he called for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.³⁰ They nodded approvingly when Trump claimed that former president George W. Bush lied about weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for the big, fat mistake of waging war against Iraq.³¹ In the global war on terror, Trump declared: Torture works. . . . Waterboarding is fine, but it’s not nearly tough enough.³² We’re gonna be saying ‘Merry Christmas’ at every store, he offered; You can leave ‘Happy Holidays’ at the corner.³³ Trump roared through the Republican primaries, readily disposing of seemingly formidable opponents such as Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, former governor Jeb Bush of Florida, Governor John Kasich of Ohio, and Senators Cruz of Texas and Rubio of Florida. He wrapped up the nomination by handily defeating the last rivals standing, Cruz and Kasich, in the May 3 Indiana primary, five weeks sooner than Clinton was able to defeat Senator Sanders for the Democratic nomination.

In addition to his freewheeling views, Trump’s voters also valued his experience as a businessman rather than a politician. Historically, nearly everyone elected or even nominated by a major political party for president has been a current or former senator, governor, vice president, general, or cabinet member. In the quarter century after World War II, senators and vice presidents (most of whom had been senators) dominated presidential elections because Cold War–era voters trusted the federal government and valued their experience dealing with national security issues. Then, in the aftermath of the Vietnam War and the Watergate scandal, the electorate turned to state governors, who were untainted by the incompetence and corruption now associated with a Washington-based political career: Jimmy Carter of Georgia in 1976, Ronald Reagan of California in 1980, Bill Clinton of Arkansas in 1992, and George W. Bush of Texas in 2000.

The ascendant Tea Party movement that helped the Republican Party win control of the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014, however, was not just anti-Washington but antigovernment in all its forms. Seven current or former Republican governors battled Trump for the Republican nomination, including large- or swing-state chief executives Bush, Kasich, Walker, Christie, George Pataki of New York, and Jim Gilmore of Virginia. None of them came close. On the eve of the primary campaign, 58 percent of Republicans said they would prefer someone from outside the existing political establishment to someone with experience in how the political system works.³⁴ As a candidate who had never held public office, Trump appealed to many voters as a complete outsider who would drain the swamp in Washington.³⁵ The problem with politicians, he told a rally: [they’re] all talk and no action. It’s true. All talk, and it’s all bullshit.³⁶ He knew politicians could be bought, Trump claimed, because he had bought some of them himself as a cost of doing business. When I need something from them—two years later, three years later, he said, they are there for me.³⁷

Trump also understood something that his rivals and other party leaders did not: most Republican voters do not share their consistently conservative ideology. For years, Republican leaders had pursued an agenda that favored free trade, reduced spending on Social Security and Medicare, cuts in federal discretionary programs, and a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants. Many rank-and-file Republican voters favored none of these things. In parallel 2014 surveys of Republican voters and elites, for example, 62 percent of voters but only 26 percent of elites said that spending on Social Security should be increased. Seventy-two percent of voters said immigrants and refugees coming to the U.S. pose a critical threat to the country, compared with 22 percent of elites. By vowing to protect Social Security and Medicare, deport illegal immigrants, introduce protectionist trade policies, and ramp up spending on infrastructure programs, Trump simply met many Republican voters where they were, Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck argue, tapping into longstanding but often unappreciated, sentiments.³⁸

THE RISE OF DONALD TRUMP

The seeds for the seventy-year-old Trump’s rise to national prominence were planted decades before his election. After graduating from the New York Military Academy, where he was a star athlete and was promoted to company captain, and the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, Trump joined his father’s Brooklyn- and Queens-centered real estate business. Lifted up the ranks of the highly profitable family concern, Trump moved to Manhattan in 1971, at age twenty-five, aiming to enter the island’s brutally competitive building market. Four years later he bought the run-down Commodore Hotel in a blighted neighborhood near Grand Central Station and, with help from City Hall, transformed the property into the Grand Hyatt. Trump Tower soon followed, instantly becoming a midtown Manhattan landmark. In a futile quest to own a National Football League team, in 1983 Trump bought the New Jersey Generals in the newly formed United States Football League (USFL), pressured his fellow owners to file an antimonopoly lawsuit against the NFL in the hope of forcing it to merge with the USFL, and then watched the league collapse in 1986 when the lawsuit failed.³⁹ A year later Trump published Trump: The Art of the