Since we opened predictions for the 2025 Screen Actors Guild Awards for film here in our predictions center, the Netflix musical crime drama “Emilia Perez” has taken the lead in the race for best cast. But this wouldn’t be the first time the women of the film won as a team. What might that mean for the Oscars?
“Emilia Perez” is the story of the title character (Karla Sofia Gascon), a former drug kingpin who starts a new life in her true gender with the help of a lawyer (Zoe Saldana). Selena Gomez plays Jessi, Emilia’s wife from before her transition. Adriana Paz is Epifania, a woman who comes into Emilia’s life. At the Cannes Film Festival, where “Perez” had its world premiere this past May, those four were jointly awarded Best Actress. Pedro Almodovar‘s film “Volver” (2006) previously achieved the same feat for its female ensemble, with Penelope Cruz going on to receive a Best Actress nom at the Oscars. However, the last time a Cannes Best Actress champ picked up an Oscar bid was Rooney Mara for “Carol” (2015).
As of this writing five out of the eight Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets are betting on “Emilia Perez” to win the SAG Award. So are four out of nine Gold Derby Editors, 17 of our Top 24 Users, and 19 of our All-Star Top 24. Ranked second in our odds is “Conclave” with support from two Experts, two Editors, and one Top User. And in third place is currently “Sing Sing,” which is backed by one Expert, two Editors, two of our Top Users, and three All-Stars.
You usually need a nomination here to have a chance to win Best Picture at the Oscars, but there are four exceptions. “Braveheart,” “The Shape of Water,” “Green Book,” and “Nomadland” won Best Picture without ensemble noms from SAG. Three of those examples are since 2017, so perhaps this factor is less relevant to the Oscars than it used to be. That said, the last three SAG ensemble champs (“CODA,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and “Oppenheimer”) did win the top Oscar, so if “Emilia Perez” wins here, watch out.
