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The first Broadway revival of the late Stephen Sondheim’s infamous flop “Merrily We Roll Along” will win the most Tony Awards of any show at the upcoming 77th annual ceremony, according to our official odds in all 26 categories. The original production, which ran for only 16 official performances back in 1981, earned a single nomination for Sondheim’s score, but this time around it will claim six trophies including Best Musical Revival, three performance awards, Best Director and Best Orchestrations.
The blockbuster musical revival will best by two a duo of plays – David Adjmi’s “Stereophonic,” the zeitgeist-grabbing production about the tumultuous recording sessions of a band on the brink of superstardom, and Branden Jacobs-Jenkins‘ “Appropriate” – that will each win four trophies apiece. Shaina Taub’s suffragist musical “Suffs” is right behind with three victories. Nominations leader “Hell’s Kitchen” will score only two wins, while nominations runner-up “The Outsiders” will likely go home empty-handed.
WATCH 37 exclusive interviews with Tony Award nominees from acting, directing, crafts categories and more
These official odds for the Tonys are derived from the predictions from our Experts who write about theatre year-round, our in-house team of Editors, the Top 24 Users who did the best predicting last year’s ceremony, the All-Star Top 24 who have the highest scores when you combine predictions from the last two years, and all our Users who make up the largest and often savviest bloc of predictors.
Below, we break down the predicted winners by show, ranked by the number of Tonys it will win and then alphabetically. Make or edit your own predictions until 6:00pm ET of the evening of the ceremony on Sunday, June 16. The Tonys will air its first round of awards, called “The Tony Awards: Act One,” on Pluto TV on the “ET” channel at 6:30pm ET before the 77th annual Tony Awards commences at 8:00pm ET on CBS and Paramount+. Julianne Hough returns to host “Act One,” this time with co-host Utkarsh Ambudkar; Skylar Astin will host the simulcast of the Tony Awards that be screened in Damrosch Park at Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts; Ariana DeBose also returns to helm the main telecast.
WATCH Tony Awards predictions: Best Musical race remains a toss up
MUSICALS
Merrily We Roll Along
Best Musical Revival — 23/10
Best Actor (Jonathan Groff) — 16/5
Best Featured Actress (Lindsay Mendez) — 5/1
Best Featured Actor (Daniel Radcliffe) — 10/3
Best Director (Maria Friedman) — 31/10
Best Orchestrations — 18/5
Suffs
Best Musical — 71/20
Best Original Score — 17/5
Best Musical Book — 16/5
Illinoise
Best Choreography — 16/5
Best Lighting Design — 17/5
Hell’s Kitchen
Best Actress (Maleah Joi Moon) — 7/2
Best Sound Design — 17/5
Cabaret
Best Costume Design — 69/20
Here Lies Love
Best Scenic Design — 5/1
We predict these nominated musicals and musical revivals will go home empty-handed: “Back to the Future: The Musical,” “Days of Wine and Roses,” “Gutenberg! The Musical!,” “Lempicka,” “Monty Python’s Spamalot,” “The Great Gatsby,” “The Notebook,” “The Outsiders,” “The Who’s Tommy” and “Water for Elephants.”
WATCH Tony Awards predictions: ‘Stereophonic’ and ‘Appropriate’ lead among plays
PLAYS
Appropriate
Best Play Revival — 27/20
Best Actress (Sarah Paulson) — 16/5
Best Featured Actor (Corey Stoll) — 7/2
Best Scenic Design — 17/5
Stereophonic
Best Play — 31/10
Best Director (Daniel Aukin) — 16/5
Best Lighting Design — 69/20
Best Sound Design — 16/5
Purlie Victorious
Best Actor (Leslie Odom Jr.) — 17/5
Best Featured Actress (Kara Young) — 17/5
Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Best Costume Design — 82/25
We predict these nominated plays and play revivals will go home empty-handed: “An Enemy of the People,” “Doubt,” “Grey House,” “Mary Jane,” “Mother Play,” “Patriots,” “Prayer for the French Republic” and “Uncle Vanya.”
PREDICT the 2024 Tony Awards through June 16
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