2025 Oscar Predictions: Best Director

In 2010 the academy expanded the Best Picture field from just five nominees and reintroduced the preferential ballot to decide the winner. Over the ensuing 15 years, we’ve seen six splits between the winners of Best Picture and Best Director (which still has just five nominees). Prior to this such splits were fairly rare. Why the change? (Scroll down for our updated 2025 Oscar predictions for Best Director.)

At the Oscars, the winner of Best Picture is determined by a weighted ballot and the outcomes of the other 22 races, including Best Director, are decided by a popular vote.  With two different voting systems, it’s easy to understand why there is often a disconnect between the winners of Best Picture and Best Director.

In 2022, Jane Campion won Best Director for “The Power of the Dog” but “CODA” was named Best Picture. In 2019 Alfonso Cuaron won Best Director for “Roma” only to see his film eclipsed in the top race by “Green Book.” That had happened to Cuaron in 2014 as well when he won for “Gravity” but Best Picture went to “12 Years a Slave.” And while Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“The Revenant”) and Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”) all won the Best Director Oscar, their films lost to “Argo” (2013), “Spotlight” (2016) and “Moonlight” (2017) respectively.

Campion was only the third woman to win Best Director after Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”) and Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”); both of their films won Best Picture. It isn’t looking likely that we’ll even see a woman make the cut in the race this year.

Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our 2025 Oscar Predictions for Best Picture.

UPDATED: October 4, 2024

LEADING CONTENDERS (ordered by odds)
Sean Baker, “Anora” (Neon)
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist” (A24)
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez” (Pathé)
Steve McQueen, “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Edward Berger, “Conclave” (Focus Features)

STRONG CONTENDERS (ordered by odds)
Ridley Scott, “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Pedro Almodóvar, “The Room Next Door” (Warner Bros.)
Greg Kwedar, “Sing Sing” (A24)
Mohammad Rasoulof, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Films Boutique)

POSSIBLE CONTENDERS (alphabetical order)
Clint Eastwood, “Juror #2” (Warner Bros.)
Robert Eggers, “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance” (Mubi)
Alex Garland, “Civil War” (A24)
Luca Guadagnino, “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios/Warner Bros.)
Luca Guadagnino, “Queer” (A24)
Marielle Heller, “Nightbitch” (Searchlight)
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight)
Mike Leigh, “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Malcolm Washington, “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Robert Zemeckis, “Here” (Sony Pictures)

SIGN UP for Gold Derby newsletters and updates