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Modeling covariance matrices via partial autocorrelations

Published: 01 November 2009 Publication History

Abstract

We study the role of partial autocorrelations in the reparameterization and parsimonious modeling of a covariance matrix. The work is motivated by and tries to mimic the phenomenal success of the partial autocorrelations function (PACF) in model formulation, removing the positive-definiteness constraint on the autocorrelation function of a stationary time series and in reparameterizing the stationarity-invertibility domain of ARMA models. It turns out that once an order is fixed among the variables of a general random vector, then the above properties continue to hold and follow from establishing a one-to-one correspondence between a correlation matrix and its associated matrix of partial autocorrelations. Connections between the latter and the parameters of the modified Cholesky decomposition of a covariance matrix are discussed. Graphical tools similar to partial correlograms for model formulation and various priors based on the partial autocorrelations are proposed. We develop frequentist/Bayesian procedures for modelling correlation matrices, illustrate them using a real dataset, and explore their properties via simulations.

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Academic Press, Inc.

United States

Publication History

Published: 01 November 2009

Author Tags

  1. 62F15
  2. 62H12
  3. 62H20
  4. Autoregressive parameters
  5. Cholesky decomposition
  6. Levinson-Durbin algorithm
  7. Markov chain Monte Carlo
  8. Positive-definiteness constraint
  9. Prediction variances
  10. Uniform and reference priors

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