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Modern Time Series Forecasting Techniques For Predictive Analytics and Anomaly Detection: From Classical Foundations to Cutting-Edge Applications Paperback – May 28, 2024

5.0 5.0 out of 5 stars 11 ratings

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Purchase options and add-ons

The eBook edition is available on Teachable.com for $22.50 by clicking https://drdataman.teachable.com. The eBook is a reproduction in a beautiful format for a pleasing reading experience.

The
print edition adopts glossy cover, color print, and the beautiful Springer font and layout for pleasing reading. Its 7.5 x 9.25 inches portal size goes with most of your books in your bookshelf.

WHAT THIS BOOK COVERS
This book organizes time series models and applications into six meticulously crafted parts. Each part equips you with the knowledge and skills to conduct time series forecasting and anomaly detection. The six parts are:

  • Part 1: From Prophet to NeuralProphet
  • Part 2: Getting Probabilistic Forecasts
  • Part 3: Autoregressive-based Time Series Techniques
  • Part 4: Tree-based Time Series Techniques
  • Part 5: Deep into Deep learning-based Time Series Techniques
  • Part 6: Transformer-based Time Series Techniques

WHY READ THIS BOOK?
In this book, you will find a wide coverage of methodologies, algorithms, and applications. Whether you’re a seasoned data scientist seeking to refine your expertise or a novice eager to embark on your analytical odyssey, this book offers a roadmap tailored to cater to diverse skill levels and objectives. You will emerge equipped with the proficiency and confidence to unravel intricate temporal patterns, harness predictive power, and unlock new horizons of insight across a myriad of domains, from finance and economics to healthcare and beyond. The writing style of this book is another selling point. Instead of taking a technique as given, this book first describes intuitions and then dives into detail. This book also gives a landscaping view from one idea to the consequent ideas. With the real-world data cases in this book, you will gain a deeper understanding of how time series techniques are applied in diverse domains.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. Preface
  2. Introduction
  3. Prophet for business forecasting
  4. Tutorial I
  5. Tutorial II
  6. Change Point Detection in Time Series
  7. Monte Carlo Simulation for Probabilistic Forecasting
  8. Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Forecasting
  9. Conformal Predictions for Probabilistic Forecasting
  10. Conformalized Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Forecasting
  11. Automatic ARIMA!
  12. Time Series Data Formats Made Easy
  13. Linear Regression for Multi-period Probabilistic Forecasting
  14. Feature Engineering for Tree-based Time Series Models
  15. Two Primary Strategies for Multi-period Time Series Forecasting
  16. Tree-based XGB, LightGBM, and CatBoost Models for Multi-period Probabilistic Forecasting
  17. The Progression of Time Series Modeling Techniques
  18. Deep Learning-based DeepAR for Probabilistic Forecasting
  19. Application — Probabilistic Predictions for stock prices
  20. From RNN to Transformer-based Time Series Models
  21. Temporal Fusion Transformer for Interpretable Time Series Predictions
  22. Lag-Llama for Time Series Forecasting

WHAT YOU GET IN THE BOOK

  • Learning time series techniques comprehensively in a short period of time
  • A roadmap from the classical techniques to modern time series forecasting
  • Applying forecasting for resource planning and anomaly detection
  • Mastering time series Python libraries
  • Model interpretability
  • Model evaluation metrics
  • Hands-on example code
  • Cheat Sheets

The Amazon Book Review
The Amazon Book Review
Book recommendations, author interviews, editors' picks, and more. Read it now.

From the Publisher

Chris Kuo

Chris_kuo

Chris Kuo

Chris Kuo is a data scientist and an adjunct professor with 23+ years of experience. He led various data science solutions including customer analytics, health data science, fraud detection, and litigation analytics. He is also an inventor of a U.S. patent. He has worked at several For- tune 500 companies in the insurance and retail industries. In addition to teaching at Columbia University, he has taught courses in time series forecasting, mathematical finance, economics, and management at Boston University, University of New Hampshire, and Liberty University. Chris Kuo received his Ph.D. in Economics from SUNY at Stony Brook and his B.S. in Nuclear Engineering from National Tsing-Hua University, Taiwan. He and his wife live in New York, New York.

Chris Kuo is a writer on Medium.com, also known as ’Dr. Dataman’ in the field of data science. He has published in several economic and management journals and is the author of the following data science books (by year):

  • 2021 - Modern Time Series Anomaly Detection: With Python and R examples
  • 2022 - The eXplainable A.I.: With Python examples
  • 2022 - Transfer Learning for Image Classification: With Python examples
  • 2023 - The Handbook of Anomaly Detection: Build and modernize your anomaly detectionmodels with examples
  • 2023 - The Handbook of NLP with Gensim: Leverage topic modeling to uncover hiddenpatterns, themes, and valuable insights within textual data
  • 2024 - Modern Time Series Forecasting: For Predictive Analytics and Anomaly Detection

modern_time_series

Modern Time Series Forecasting Techniques For Predictive Analytics and Anomaly Detection

The book is a testament to Kuo’s deep understanding of time series analysis and its applications in predictive analytics and anomaly detection. This book equips readers with the necessary skills to tackle real-world challenges. It is particularly valuable for those seeking a career change into data science. Kuo provides a detailed exploration of both traditional and cutting-edge techniques. Kuo integrates discussions on neural networks and other advanced algorithms, reflecting the latest trends and developments in the field. This ensures that readers are not only learning established methods but are also prepared to engage with the most current and innovative techniques in data science.The book’s clarity and accessibility are enhanced by Kuo’s engaging writing style. He successfully demystifies complex mathematical and statistical concepts, making them approachable without sacrificing rigor.

gensim

The handbook of NLP with Gensim

This book demystifies NLP and equips you with hands-on strategies spanning healthcare, e-commerce, finance, and more to enable you to leverage Gensim in real-world scenarios.

You'll begin by exploring motives and techniques for extracting text information like bag-of-words, TF-IDF, and word embeddings. This book guides you on topic modeling using methods such as Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) for dimensionality reduction and discovering latent semantic relationships in text data, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) for probabilistic topic modeling, and Ensemble LDA to enhance topic modeling stability and accuracy. This book will inspire you to design innovative projects. By the end of this book, you'll have mastered the techniques essential to create applications with Gensim and integrate NLP into your business processes.

xai

The eXplainable A.I.

How AI systems make decisions is not known to most people. Many of the algorithms, though achieving a high level of precision, are not easily understandable for how a recommendation is made. This is especially the case in a deep learning model. As humans, we must be able to fully understand how decisions are made so we can trust the decisions of AI systems. We need ML models to function as expected, to produce transparent explanations, and to be visible in how they work. Explainable AI (XAI) is important research and has been guiding the development of AI. It enables humans to understand the models so as to manage effectively the benefits that AI systems provide, while maintaining a high level of prediction accuracy. Explainable AI answers the following questions to build the trusts of users for the AI systems:

● Why does the model predict that result?

● What are the reasons for a prediction?

● What is the prediction interval?

● How does the model work?

transfer

Transfer Learning for Image Classification: With Python Examples

What you will learn

  • Learn how deep learning models treat image data.
  • Learn what a convolutional neural network (CNN) is.
  • Learn each layer of a CNN by visualizing what it sees in an image layer-by-layer
  • Learn the development of pre-trained image models
  • Learn how to annotate images programmatically and pre-process images for modeling
  • Follow Step 1,2,3 in the book to build deep learning models with Keras
  • Build a repeatable pipeline to apply transfer learning for any image projects

This book is for interested readers who want to learn deep learning and image modeling. Readers who do not have deep learning backgrounds will find this book accessible. It is suitable for data scientists in fields such as business, finance, insurance, engineering, science, or biomedical science. Data science instructors may find this book ideal for a semester-long capstone project.

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ B0D5CPD1J3
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ INNOVATION PRESS, LLC (May 28, 2024)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 291 pages
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 979-8990781009
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.4 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 7.5 x 0.66 x 9.25 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    5.0 5.0 out of 5 stars 11 ratings

About the author

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Chris Kuo
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Chris Kuo is a data scientist and an adjunct professor with over 23 years of experience. He led various data science solutions including customer analytics, health analytics, fraud detection, and litigation. He is also an inventor of a U.S. patent. He has worked at several Fortune 500 companies in the insurance and retail industries.

Chris teaches at Columbia University and has taught at Boston University and other universities. He has published articles in economic and management journals and served as a journal reviewer. He is the author of The Handbook of NLP with Gensim, The Handbook of Anomaly Detection, The eXplainable A.I., Modern Time Series Anomaly Detection, and Transfer Learning for Image Classification. He received his undergraduate degree in Nuclear Engineering from National TsingHua University in Taiwan, and his Ph.D. in Economics from the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He lives in New York City with his wife France.

Customer reviews

5 out of 5 stars
5 out of 5
11 global ratings
Great Book for Mastering Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
5 Stars
Great Book for Mastering Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
This book is an invaluable resource for anyone interested in mastering time series analysis and forecasting. It offers a comprehensive and meticulously organized exploration of time series models and applications, making complex concepts accessible. Each part of the book is thoughtfully crafted, guiding readers from foundational techniques like Prophet and NeuralProphet to advanced methodologies including deep learning and transformer-based approaches. A MUST-READ for anyone looking to excel in the field of time series forecasting and anomaly detection.
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Top reviews from the United States

Reviewed in the United States on June 5, 2024
"Modern Time Series Forecasting Techniques" is an insightful and comprehensive guide that stands out as a valuable resource for anyone involved in predictive analytics and data science. The book is meticulously structured, beginning with fundamental concepts and progressively advancing to more sophisticated topics, making it accessible to both beginners and experienced practitioners.

One of the standout features of this book is its comprehensive coverage of Python libraries relevant to time series forecasting. In addition, the book's deep dive into modern techniques, such as Prophet and NeuralProphet, is particularly valuable. It not only explains the mechanics behind these models but also provides detailed guidance on data preparation, modeling, and hyper-parameter tuning. This practical approach ensures that readers can effectively apply these techniques to their own data sets.

Furthermore, the sections on probabilistic forecasting (Part II) and tree-based time series techniques (Part IV) are comprehensive and well-explained. The discussions on Monte Carlo Simulation, quantile regression, and conformal prediction (Chapters 6-9) are thorough and provide a solid foundation for understanding these advanced methods.

The book also excels in its treatment of autoregressive-based techniques (Part III) and deep learning-based methods (Part V). The progression from classical models to deep learning techniques, including LSTM and RNN, is well-structured and informative.

In summary, "Modern Time Series Forecasting Techniques" is a well-rounded and informative book that serves as an excellent reference for both novice and experienced data scientists. Its practical case studies, comprehensive coverage of modern techniques, and detailed explanations make it an indispensable guide in the field of time series forecasting.
Reviewed in the United States on June 21, 2024
I love the style of this book! It is self-contained, with concepts articulated clearly through vivid examples and metaphors. Often you can easily read through it without needing to refer to external sources.

What sets this book apart is not just its simplicity but its balanced depth and understandability. Even as an experienced machine learning engineer, I found myself learning new things. For instance, the book clarified the univariate and multivariate definitions of time series, concepts often assumed to be understood in research papers. Additionally, the explanation of ARIMA, a time series model with different terms capturing different features of data, was particularly clear and easy to grasp.

The book also goes beyond traditional models to cover trendy ones like Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and LagLLama. I first encountered TFT on a Google Research blog, but found it challenging to understand. This book, however, made the model more comprehensible. Applying foundation models to time-series data is still emerging in the industry, and the book's introduction to LagLLama provided valuable insights into using LLMs for time-series data.

Overall, I had an excellent experience with this book. It enriched my understanding of time-series modeling and provided practical knowledge. I highly recommend it to machine learning practitioners and anyone interested in time-series data modeling.
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Reviewed in the United States on June 25, 2024
As a data engineer who helps bring data science models to life, Modern Time Series Forecasting Techniques For Predictive Analytics and Anomaly Detection proves invaluable in helping me understand the intricacies of the models on which I work each day.

The book provides a clear and concise explanation of various model types, including Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), and tree-based models.

What I appreciated most was the author’s ability to break down complex concepts into practical examples. The book covers the theoretical foundations, but it also dives into hands-on implementation using Python libraries like scikit-learn and XGBoost.

The chapters on feature engineering, hyperparameter tuning, and model evaluation were particularly enlightening. I now have a better understanding of when to choose a GLM over a tree-based model, and how GBM differs from other ensemble methods.

Whether you’re a data engineer, analyst, or aspiring data scientist, Modern Time Series Forecasting Techniques For Predictive Analytics and Anomaly Detection is a must-read. It bridges the gap between theory and practice, making it an essential addition to any data science library.
Reviewed in the United States on June 27, 2024
This book is an excellent resource for both professionals and students. Covering a wide range of techniques, from classic methods to advanced deep learning and transformer models, it offers clear explanations and practical examples that make complex concepts accessible. The book is structured to provide a comprehensive understanding, starting from intuitive explanations and progressing to detailed applications, ensuring that readers of all levels can grasp the material.

As a professional in financial industry itself, this book is invaluable for its practical applications, where time series forecasting and anomaly detection are crucial. It equips readers with the tools and confidence to apply these techniques in real-world scenarios. Students will also find it beneficial as it bridges the gap between theory and practice, offering hands-on examples and cheat sheets that reinforce learning. Whether you're looking to refine your expertise or start your journey in predictive analytics, this book is a must-have for mastering time series techniques.
Reviewed in the United States on June 28, 2024
Chris is an extremely intelligent person who is able to communicate and share these dense and complex ideas in a straightforward and easy to understand way. It allows for both the expert and novice to pickup and gain insights and knowledge from page 1 through the end. Excellent read.