Chaotic Time Series Forecasting Approaches Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Review
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Chaotic Systems
1.2. Importance of Chaotic Time Series Forecasting
1.2.1. Chaotic Time Series Forecasting in Power and Energy
1.2.2. Chaotic Time Series Forecasting in Oil and Gas
1.2.3. Chaotic Time Series Forecasting in Hydrological Systems
1.2.4. Chaotic Time Series Forecasting in Other Systems
1.3. Previous and Current Literature Survey
2. Review on Chaotic Time Series Forecasting
3. Neural Network-Based Forecasting Approaches
3.1. ANN-Based Forecasting Approaches
3.2. Fuzzy with ANN-Based Forecasting Approaches
- Real inputs with fuzzy weights;
- Fuzzy inputs with real weights;
- Fuzzy inputs and fuzzy weights.
- Generalized zonary time-variant fuzzy information granule;
- LSTM mechanism with FNN model.
3.3. Optimization Algorithms with ANN-Based Forecasting Approaches
3.4. Wavelet NN-Based Forecasting Approaches
3.5. Other Approaches
4. Forecasting of Chaotic Time Series in Various Applications
4.1. Power and Energy
4.1.1. Wind Farms
- Fractal dimension-Lorenz stenflo-Ensemble EMD;
- GA tuned BPNN model;
4.1.2. Solar and Photovoltaic Systems
4.1.3. Other Power Systems
4.2. Hydrological Systems
4.3. Communication Signals and Systems
4.4. Oil and Gas
4.5. Other Systems
5. Performance Measures
6. Conclusions
6.1. Findings
- The wavelet decomposition method predicted wind speed and power accurately and effectively using improved time series, chaotic time series, and grey models [74,81]. The false nearest neighbor analysis method forecast the chaotic behavior of the wind–wave characteristics, including wave period and height [109].
- The approaches such as the ordinary least square method [28], recurrent predictor neural network [36], hybrid Elman–NARX neural network [78], and embedding theorem-repetitive fuzzy [21] forecast the sunspot number (chaotic time series) effectively. In all these cases, the sunspot data were collected from the world data center for Belgium’s sunspot index.
- The combination of chaos theory and techniques, such as ensemble EMD and CNN-SSA, effectively forecast the PV system’s output power under certain conditions, such as rainy, heavy cloudy, lightly cloudy, and sunny conditions [155,158]. The data were collected from the St Lucia campus PV station, Australia, in all these cases.
- The integration of the BPNN with GA, SA algorithms [115], parallel chaos [118], wavelet decomposition-based methods [120,157] was successfully used to forecast the deregulated power system’s short-term electrical energy demand. These methods help in proper economic power dispatching with an enhanced demand response that assists in efficient spot price-fixing in the deregulated power market.
- The minimum phase space-based EKF method was used to forecast the blind equalization in power line communication systems to overcome channel noise [106].
- The independent component analysis method in [94] adequately estimated the amplitude and frequency of power systems’ highly distorted signals to avoid the ferroresonance effect.
- The Markov chain switching regime model enhanced the precision accuracy and is helpful for wind power forecasting during scheduling and planning [144].
6.2. Future Directions
- Chaotic time series analysis and SVM can estimate short-term wind speeds while considering weather conditions and more complex scenarios of wind farm operations [16].
- To the dispersed power resource system, the wind power generation unit can be connected to the grid of this system through high-quality forecasting of the parameters using the Jacobian matrix estimate method and weather data optimal points using deterministic chaos [104].
- EMD-based forecasting approaches can increase short-term wind power prediction accuracy based on their behavior characteristics. Furthermore, the relationship between different scale subsequences and numerical weather forecasting can improve the accuracy of this short-term wind power forecasting [108].
- The hybrid neuro evolutionary approach, i.e., adaptive variational mode decomposition-AOA-LSTM proposed for wind farms, has employed multiple outlier identification methods with optimization and decomposition procedures to improve forecasting outcomes [175]. This method can also be adaptable to other geographies.
- The independent component analysis method can be extended for real-time monitoring and controlling the power system’s fundamental frequency with an appropriate time delay between observed data frames [94].
- The precision accuracy of the response surface-based Bayesian inference method proposed for the power systems to predict the dynamic parameters has to be improved when there is a substantial outrageous deviation in the boundaries [149].
- The coupled quantity pattern similarity model proposed for the prediction of monthly precipitation can also be applied to the time series with different lead time scales [18].
- The forecasting accuracy of an online vehicle velocity prediction approach proposed using adaptive RBFNN can be enhanced using additional data, such as driving time, climate, gas, and brake pedals [176].
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
ACF | Auto correlation function |
ANN | Artificial neural networks |
AOA | Arithmetic optimization algorithm |
APE | Absolute percentage error |
APSK | Amplitude phase shift keying |
AR | Autoregressive |
ARE | Average relative error |
ARIMA | Autoregressive integrated moving average |
ARMA | Autoregressive moving average |
ARMSE | Average root mean square error |
BFA | Bacterial foraging algorithm |
BP | Backpropagation |
BPNN | Backpropagation neural network |
CBAM | Convolutional block attention module |
CBAS | Chaos beetle antennae search algorithm |
CCO | Cluster chaotic optimization |
CGO | Chaos game optimization |
CMSE | Cumulative mean square error |
CVRMSE | Coefficient of variance of the root mean square error |
DCSK | Differential chaos shift keying |
DMI | Delayed mutual information |
EKF | Extended Kalman filter |
EMD | Empirical mode decomposition |
ESN | Echo state network |
FFNN | Feed-forward neural network |
GA | Genetic algorithm |
GPF | Gaussian particle filtering |
GRNN | Generalized regression neural network |
GWO | Grey wolf optimization |
HBO | Honey bee optimization |
HEA | Hybrid evolutionary adaptive |
HFD | Higuchi’s fractal dimension |
IGWO | Improved grey wolf optimizer |
ITSM | Improved time series method |
LLE | Largest Lyapunov exponent |
LLNF | Locally linear neuro-fuzzy |
LS | Least square |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation |
MAE | Mean absolute error |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error |
MARE | Mean absolute relative error |
MCMC | Monte Carlo Markov chain |
MLE | Machine learning ensembles |
MLP | Multilayer perceptron |
MMSE | Minimum mean square error |
MPSV | Minimum phase space volume |
MRE | Mean relative error |
MRFO | Manta ray foraging optimization |
MRPE | Maximal relative percentage error |
MSD | Mean squared deviation |
MSE | Mean squared error |
MSLE | Mean squared logarithmic error |
MSPE | Mean squared prediction error |
NARX | Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model |
NMAE | Normalized mean absolute error |
NMAPE | Normalized mean absolute percentage error |
NMSE | Normalized mean square error |
NRMSE | Normalized root mean square error |
NWP | Numerical weather prediction |
PCR | Principal component regression |
PCS | Polynomial chaos surrogates |
PE | Prediction error |
PE | Percentage error |
PID | Proportional–integral–derivative |
PLS | Partial least square |
PRE | Percentage relative error |
PSO | Particle swarm optimization |
PV | Photovoltaic |
QAM | Quadrature amplitude modulation |
R | Coefficient of correlation |
R | Coefficient of determination |
RBF | Radial basis function |
RBFNN | Radial basis function neural network |
RE | Relative error |
RMSE | Root mean squared error |
RNN | Recurrent neural network |
RR | Ridge regression |
RRMSE | Relative root mean squared error |
SA | Simulated annealing |
SMAPE | Symmetric mean absolute percentage error |
SOM | Self-organizing map |
SSA | Salp swarm algorithm |
SVM | Support vector machine |
TCN | Temporal convolutional network |
TLBO | Teaching–learning-based optimization |
TTLS | Truncated total least squares |
UKF | Unscented Kalman filter |
ULN | Universal learning network |
YCO | Yield-constrained optimization |
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
[25], 1992 | China | IEEE Conference | Complex weighted neural network | Music formula | Arrival direction | – | – | – |
[26], 1996 | South Korea | IEEE Conference | ANN | Power system | Daily peak load | – | MAPE | South Korea electric power corporation |
[27], 1998 | China | IEEE Conference | Embedding phase space using RNN | Mackey-Glass model | Time series | – | MSE | – |
[28], 1998 | Norway | Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena | Ordinary least square method | Sunspot, R-R intervals of human ECG signals | Time series | PCR, PLS, TTLS, RR | NRMSE | – |
[29], 1999 | China | IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks | Temporal difference GA based reinforcement learning neural network | Henon map, Logistic map | External reinforcement signal | – | Prediction error | – |
[30], 2000 | China | IEEE Conference | Novel noise reduction | Chaotic interference | Frequency | – | Residual error | – |
[31], 2001 | Australia | IEEE Conference | Standard Gaussian approximation | Asynchronous DS-CDMA systems | Accuracy | Improved GA | – | – |
[32], 2001 | Spain | IEEE Conference | ANN | Hot wire anemometer | Turbulent flow temporal signals | – | MSE | – |
[33], 2002 | UK | IEEE Conference | Gaussian processes | Henon map | Time series | SVM | NMSE | Far infrared-laser |
[34], 2004 | Iran | Chaos, Solitons and Fractals | RBFNN | Logistic map, Henon map, Mackey-Glass model | Time series | - | MSE, NMSE | – |
[35], 2004 | Canada | IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering | ANN | Silico model | Onset of state transitions | – | – | – |
[36], 2004 | China | IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing | Recurrent predictor neural network | Sunspot number | Time series | Kalman filter, ULN | RMSE, PE | – |
[37], 2004 | China | Chemical Engineering Science | Chaotic forecasting | Evaporator with two-phase flow | Heat-transfer coefficient | – | ARE | – |
[38], 2004 | China | IEEE Conference | WNN | Electricity | Spot market prices | – | MSE, APE | South china |
[39], 2004 | China | IEEE Conference | KIII-chaotic neural network | IJCNN CATS benchmark test data | Time series | N-based method | MSE | IJCNN’O4 CATS benchmark set |
[40], 2005 | China | IEEE Conference | RNN | Power system | Price | – | Mean and maximum percentage errors | New England electricity market, USA 1 |
[41], 2005 | China | IEEE Conference | SVM | Market price | Exchange rate | ANN | MSE | – |
[42], 2005 | Japan | IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems | Master–slave synchronization scheme | FitzHugh–Nagumo model, Chua’s oscillator | Chaotic behavior | – | Prediction error | – |
[43], 2006 | Italy | Hydrological Sciences | RBFs | Henon map, Lorenz map, Sea-surface temperature | Time series | – | CMSE | Mekong river in Thailand and Laos, Chao phraya river in Thailand |
[44], 2006 | China | IEEE Conference | Sigmoid and wavelet hybrid transfer function | ESN | Memory capacity | ESN predictor | NRMSE | – |
[45], 2006 | Mexico | IEEE Conference | WNN | Lorenz system, Mackey–Glass model | Time series | BPNN | MSE | – |
[46], 2006 | Spain | Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena | Discrete-time recursive update | Lorenz system | On-line parameter | Maybhate’s technique, d’Anjou’s technique | NMAE | – |
[47], 2006 | Iran | IEEE Conference | GA | Mackey-Glass model | Time series | ANN | NMSE | – |
[48], 2006 | Canada | IEEE Conference | Time delay neural network | Solar system | Number of dark spots | Weight elimination FFNN, Dynamical RNN, Hybrid clustering | NMSE | Skylab, Solar influences data analysis center, Belgium 2 |
[49], 2007 | South Korea | IEEE Conference | Terminal sliding mode controller | Duffing, Lorenz systems | Tracking error | Classical sliding mode control | MSE | – |
[50], 2007 | China | IEEE Conference | Self-organizing Takagi and Sugeno-type FNN | Traffic system | Traffic flow | RBFNN | RMSE | Zizhu Bridge in Beijing |
[51], 2007 | Greece | IEEE Conference | BPNN | Diode resonator circuits | Time series | – | RMSE | – |
[52], 2007 | Iran | IEEE Conference | Co-evolutionary | Solar system | Sunspot number time series | AR, Threshold AR model | NMSE | Solar influences data analysis center, Belgium 1 |
[53], 2007 | China | IEEE Conference | Evolving RNN | Lorenz, Logistic, Mackey–Glass, Real-world sun spots series | Time series | LLNF, Bidirectional RNN | NMSE, RMSE | Solar influences data analysis center, Belgium 1 |
[54], 2008 | China | IEEE Conference | Distributed chaotic fuzzy RBFNN | Distribution network | Fault section | BPNN | – | – |
[55], 2008 | China | Expert Systems with Applications | Optimal BPNN | Signal deviation | Time series | Grey model, ARMA, RBFNN | MAD, MAPE, MSE | |
[56], 2008 | China | IEEE Conference | Generalized EKF | Lorenz system | Time series | MLP network | MSE | – |
[57], 2008 | Brazil | Neurocomputing | NARX neural network | Chaotic laser, Real-world video traffic | Time series | Time delay neural network, Elman RNN | NMSE | Chaotic laser, Variable bit rate video traffic time series |
[58], 2008 | China | IEEE Conference | ANN | Unimodal surjective map system | Generating sequences | – | PRE | – |
[59], 2008 | Greece | Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence | Nonlinear time series analysis, BP-MLP | Chaotic diode resonator circuits | Time series | – | NMSE | – |
[60], 2008 | China | IEEE Conference | LS-SVM | Power system | Marginal price | BPNN | APE, MAPE | California electricity market, USA |
[61], 2008 | China | IEEE Conference | Ensemble ANN | Mackey–Glass model | Turning points | Single ANN | – | – |
[62], 2008 | China | IEEE Conference | Chaotic adding-weight dynamic local predict model | Pseudo random number generator | ISN value | – | Scope error, Margin error | – |
[63], 2008 | China | IEEE Conference | Add-weighted one-rank multi-steps prediction | Electricity | Price | Mutual information, False neighbors methods | Maximum percentage error, Average error | – |
[64], 2008 | China | IEEE Conference | Hybrid accelerating GA | River flow model | Roughness parameter | Standard binary-encoded and real-valued accelerating GA | ARE | Yangtse river upstream flow, China |
[65], 2008 | Greece | Chaos, Solitons and Fractals | Nearest neighbor | Single transistor chaotic circuit | Time series cross | – | – | – |
[66], 2008 | China | IEEE Conference | Subtractive clustering based FNN modeling | Traffic system | Traffic flow | BPNN, FNN | MAE, MAPE, MSE, MSPE | – |
[67], 2009 | China | IEEE Conference | Adaptive neural network fuzzy inference system | Hydrological stations | Average monthly flow | AR method | PRE | Guantai hydrological station of zhang river, China |
[68], 2009 | China | IEEE Conference | RBFNN | Shanghai composite index | Economic time series | BPNN | MAPE | Shanghai composite index, China |
[69], 2009 | Iran | Neural Computing and Applications | Fuzzy descriptor singular spectral analysis | Mackey–Glass, Lorenz, Darwin sea level pressure, Disturbance storm models | Time series | MLP, LLNF, RBFNN | NMSE | Darwin sea level pressure in Australia, Solar influences data analysis center, Belgium, US national oceanic and atmospheric administration 1 |
[70], 2009 | Iran | Chaos, Solitons and Fractals | Levenberg–Marquardt learning | Mackey–Glass model | Time series | – | MSE, NMSE | – |
[71], 2009 | China | IEEE Conference | Bee evolution modifying PSO chaotic network | Power system | Load | PSO | RMSE | Daqing oil field company, China |
[72], 2009 | China | IEEE Conference | Adding-weighted LLE | Grid | Load | Adding-weighted one-rank local | Maximum and minimal relative errors, ARE | Grid of New South Wales, Australia |
[19], 2009 | USA | Journal of Hydrology | Regression analysis, ANN, Chaotic nonlinear dynamic models | Hydrological systems | Temperature | – | R, RMSE, MSE | Lake Tahoe basin, California and Nevada, USA |
[73], 2010 | China | IEEE Conference | Gaussian particle filtering | Mackey–Glass model | Time series | EKF, UKF | Prediction error | – |
[74], 2010 | China | Renewable Energy | Wavelet decomposition method, ITSM | Wind farm | Power, Speed | BPNN | MAE, MSE, MAPE | – |
[75], 2010 | China | IEEE Conference | Chaos theory, FNN | Hydraulic pump | Vibration signal | – | APE, MSE | – |
[76], 2010 | China | IEEE Conference | Dynamic recurrent FNN | Power system | Load | FNN | MSE | North china city |
[77], 2010 | China | IEEE Conference | Parallel RBFNN | Lorenz system, Hydraulic pump | Time series | RBFNN | APE | – |
[78], 2010 | China | Neurocomputing | Hybrid Elman–NARX neural network | Mackey–Glass, Lorenz, Real life sunspot models | Time series | AR model, GA, Fuzzy | MSE, RMSE, NMSE | Solar influences data analysis center, Belgium 1 |
[79], 2010 | China | IEEE Conference | Nonlinear AR | Chaotic system | Exchange rate | BPNN, SVM model | APE | FX data of USD |
[16], 2010 | China | IEEE Conference | SVM | Wind farm | Speed | ANN | RRMSE | – |
[80], 2011 | China | IEEE Conference | Rough set neural network | Wind farm | Power | Chaos neural network, Persistence models | NMAE | Wind farm in Beijing area, China |
[81], 2011 | China | Expert Systems with Applications | Chaotic wavelet decomposition–Grey model | Wind farm | Power | Direct prediction method | MAPE, NMAE, NRMSE | Dongtai wind farm, East China |
[82], 2011 | USA | IEEE Conference | Probabilistic collocation | Power system | Sparse grid points | Monte Carlo method | Measurement error | NASA |
[83], 2011 | China | Procedia Engineering | Global prediction method based on BPNN | Gas | Emission rate | First-order weighted local prediction method | MSE, RMSE | Hegang nanshan mine, China |
[84], 2011 | China | IEEE Conference | Chaotic RBFNN | Power system | Load | RBFNN | Absolute error | – |
[85], 2011 | China | IEEE Conference | Improved duffing oscillator-chaotic traffic prediction model | Coal gas | Traffic flow | – | Peak-to-peak error | Coal mine northwest edge router room, China |
[86], 2012 | France | IEEE Conference | Anchor selection based on polynomial chaos expansions | Anchor | Angle-of-arrival | – | RMSE, Median error | – |
[87], 2012 | China | Physics Procedia | Mutative scale chaos optimization | SVM parameters | Chaotic time series | Chaos optimization algorithm | RMSE | – |
[88], 2012 | China | Systems Engineering Procedia | Chaotic local weighted linear forecast algorithm | Electricity | Daily load | Weighted first order local method | ARE | South china city |
[89], 2012 | China | IEEE Conference | Hierarchic ESN | Lorenz, Sunspot, Yellow river annual runoff models | Time series | ESN | RMSE | – |
[90], 2012 | South Korea | IEEE Conference | MLP | DC electric arc furnace | Voltage, Current signals, Arc resistance | RBFNN | Autocorrelation | DC electric arc furnace |
[91], 2012 | China | IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, Cybernetics | H-infinity state estimation | Discrete time chaotic systems | H-infinity state | EKF | Estimation error | – |
[92], 2012 | China | IEEE Conference | Chaos algorithm | Radio wave | Amplitude | Traditional chaotic time series prediction method | RMSE | – |
[93], 2012 | Italy | IEEE Conference | Decentralized polynomial chaos theory | Power system | Voltage sensor validation | Decentralized polynomial chaos theory | Local covariance error | – |
[94], 2013 | Turkey | Electric Power Systems Research | Independent component analysis | Power system | Amplitude, Frequency signals | Zero-crossing, Discrete Fourier transform, Orthogonal filters, Kalman filter | MSE | – |
[95], 2013 | China | IEEE Conference | WNN with phase space reconstruction | Lorenz, Henon models | Time series | WNN without phase space reconstruction | SMAPE | – |
[20], 2013 | China | IEEE Conference | Global prediction of chaos | Generator | Output power | – | PRE | Thermal power plant in Liaoning province, China |
[12], 2013 | China | IEEE Conference | Chaotic RBFNN | Gasoline | Intake flow | RBFNN | MSD, MAE, ARE | – |
[96], 2013 | China | Fluid Phase Equilibria | Self-adaptive PSO based BPNN | Polymers | Gas solubility | BPNN, PSO-BPNN | MSE | – |
[97], 2014 | Taiwan | IEEE Transactions on Cybernetic | Interval type-2 fuzzy cerebellar model articulation controller | Henon system | Time series | FNN, Interval type-2 FNN | MSE | – |
[98], 2014 | China | The Scientific World Journal | Phase space reconstruction-LS-SVM | FM radio | Band occupancy rate | GA-LS-SVM, Monte Carlo-LS-SVM | NMSE, RMSE, MAPE | Fixed radio monitoring station of Xihua university, China |
[99], 2014 | China | IEEE Conference | Chaos elitism estimation of distribution | Chaotic system | Elitism strategy | Estimation of distribution algorithm for large scale global optimization | Standard deviation | – |
[100], 2014 | Egypt | Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society | Adaptive chaos synchronization technique | Hyperchaotic system | System parameters | – | Error dynamics | – |
[101], 2014 | Greece | Simulation Modeling Practice and Theory | ANN | Chaotic dynamical system | Embedding dimension | – | RMSE | – |
[102], 2014 | Hong Kong | Building and Environment | ANN-chaotic PSO | Air quality | Particulate matter concentration | Mulleven Levenberg–Marquardt | R, MSE | – |
[103], 2014 | Mexico | IEEE Conference | SOM tuned neural network | Mackey–Glass, NN5 | Time series | – | RMSE, MAE, SMAPE | – |
[104], 2014 | Japan | IEEE Conference | Jacobian matrix estimation | Wind farm | Speed, Power | ANN, GA | RMSE | Japan meteorological agency, Aomori area, North of Honshu, Japan |
[105], 2014 | China | Mathematical Problems in Engineering | Generalized Liu system | Chaotic secure communication, implementation of electronic circuits, numerical simulations | Global exponential stability | Weighted first order local method | RMSE | – |
[106], 2014 | Canada | IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery | Minimum phase space volume-EKF equalization | Power line communications | Blind equalization | Inverse filter-based MPSV method | MSE | – |
[107], 2015 | China | Journal of Engineering Science and Technology Review | Improved GA | Lorenz model | Time series | GA | Percentage coordinate error | – |
[108], 2015 | China | Applied Energy | Hilbert–Huang transform and Hurst analysis | Wind farm | Power | EMD model, LS-SVM | NMAE, NRMSE | Wind farm of Hebei province, China |
[109], 2015 | Iran | Ocean Engineering | False nearest neighbor | Wind farm | Wave characteristics | – | – | Port and maritime organization, Iran |
[110], 2015 | Iran | Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems | Embedding theorem-repetitive fuzzy | Mackey–Glass, Lorenz, Sunspot number models | Time series | MLP gradient, Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference, AR, Fuzzy | MSE, RMSE, NMSE | Solar influences data analysis center, Belgium 1 |
[21], 2015 | Brazil | Neural Computing & Applications | MLP | Flood | River level | Elman-RNN | MAE, RMSE, R | Urban rivers by means of wireless sensor networks |
[111], 2016 | China | Journal of Parallel and Distributed Computing | Maximum velocity criterion, Sinusoidal wave frequency modulation, Chaotic control using fuzzy | Smart grid | Chaos | Raw smart grid | – | – |
[112], 2016 | China | Mathematical Problems in Engineering | Self-constructing recurrent FNN | Logistic, Henon maps | Time series | Self-constructing FNN | RMSE | – |
[113], 2016 | China | IEEE Conference | Chaos RBFNN prediction | Blast furnace | Carbon-monoxide utilization ratio | – | RMSE | – |
[114], 2016 | China | Mathematical Problems in Engineering | Chattering-free sliding mode control | Power system | Disturbances | Nonlinear disturbance observer based sliding mode control | Steady state error | – |
[115], 2016 | Malaysia | Neural Computing & Applications | BPNN, Chaos search GA, Simulated annealing | Smart grid | Electrical energy demand | ANN | MAE, RMSE, MSE, MAPE | Grid of New South Wales, Australian |
[116], 2016 | Russia | IEEE Conference | Guaranteed | One-dimensional chaotic system | Guaranteed state, Parameter | LS method | Measurement errors | – |
[117], 2016 | Iran | Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems | Interactively recurrent fuzzy functions | Lorenz, Noisy Mackey–Glass, Real lung sound signals | Time series | FNN, WNN, ESN, LS | RMSE, PRE | Department of pneumology in Shariati hospital collected by Amirkabir University’s researchers |
[118], 2016 | Italy | Chemical Engineering Transactions | Parallel chaos | Power system | Load | ANN | – | East China power grid enterprise |
[119], 2017 | China | Energy | Ensemble EMD, Full-parameters continued fraction | Wind farm | Power | HEA, MLE, RBF | NRMSE, NMAE | Farm in Xinjiang, China |
[13], 2017 | China | Chaos, Solitons and Fractals | Wavelet transform, Multiple model fusion | Lorenz, Mackey–Glass models | Time series | Improved free search-LS-SVM, Direct superposition without Gauss–Markov fusion | RMSE, MAE, SMAPE | – |
[120], 2017 | China | Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews | Wavelet decomposition, EMD | Electricity | Electricity demand | ANN, SVM | – | – |
[121], 2017 | China | IEEE Conference | RBFNN, Volterra filter | Spacecraft system | Spacecraft telemetry parameter | – | Absolute error, RE | – |
[122], 2017 | China | Chaos, Solitons and Fractals | Recursive Levenberg–Marquardt | Neural networks | Chaotic time series | On-line Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm | MSE | – |
[123], 2017 | South Korea | Sustainability | Inverse model, Chaos time series inverse | Building energy management system | Electric energy consumption | SVM | MAE, CVRMSE | – |
[124], 2017 | China | Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering | Fast initial solution prediction | Sheet metal stamping | Inverse isogeometric analysis | One-step inverse finite element method | – | – |
[17], 2017 | China | International Journal of Mining Science and Technology | Coal mine ventilation systems management technology | Coal mine | Gas concentration | – | MSE | Coal mine in Jining, Shandong, China |
[125], 2017 | Iran | IEEE Conference | Takens embedding theory | Chaotic Henon map | Time series | Pyragas method | Estimation error | – |
[126], 2017 | New Zealand | Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing | Adaptive multiuser transceiver scheme | DS-CDMA System | Bit error rate | Least mean square | MMSE | – |
[127], 2017 | India | IEEE Conference | LLE, HFD, SampEn | Electromyography signals | Chaos, Fractal dimension, Entropy | Grassberger–Procaccia algorithm, Approximate entropy | – | – |
[128], 2018 | China | Neural Computing & Applications | Chaotic BPNN | Power system | Load | BPNN, RBFNN, Elman, PSO-BPNN, RBFNN-Quantile regression | MRPE, MAPE | Electrical load data of a city in china network |
[129], 2018 | China | IEEE Conference | Equivalent circuit model, EKF | Li-ion batteries | State of charge | – | Estimation error | – |
[130], 2018 | Morocco | IEEE Conference | ANN–Discrete wavelet transform | PV system | Power | ANN, ANN–Phase space reconstruction | MSE, MAPE, RMSE | Photovoltaic park, faculty of science and technology, Beni Mellal, Morocco |
[131], 2018 | Russia | IEEE Conference | Deep CNN | Discrete dynamic systems | Lyapunov exponent | – | MAPE, MPE | Russian central bank 1 |
[132], 2018 | China | Sensors | SA | Time series interferometric synthetic aperture radar | Deformation | – | – | Beijing area, china |
[133], 2018 | Indonesia | IEEE Conference | SOM extreme learning mechanism-RBFNN | Lorenz system | Multi-step ahead time series | AR, ARIMA models | Multiple correlation coefficient | – |
[134], 2018 | China | IEEE Conference | Generalized regression neural network of k-fold cross validation | Sunspot | Time series | RBFNN | Least generalization error, Normalized error | Solar influences data analysis center, Belgium 2 |
[135], 2018 | China | IEEE Conference | GA-LS-SVM | Fractional order systems | Nonlinear function | LS-SVM | MSE | – |
[136], 2019 | Indonesia | IEEE Conference | Roberts edge detection | Weather | Tornadoes | – | – | – |
[18], 2019 | China | Journal of Hydrology | Coupled quantity–pattern similarity | Hydrological application | Monthly precipitation | Local approximation prediction, Autoregressive models | R, RMSE, MARE, MSE | Danjiangkou reservoir basin, China |
[137], 2019 | Mexico | IEEE Conference | Superimposed chaos sequence | Quadratic base band, Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing-based cognitive radio Channel | Frequency | Pilot design method, Wavelet pilot design | – | – |
[138], 2019 | USA | IEEE Conference | Polynomial chaos expansion–Langevin MCMC | Power system | Inertia, Exciter gains, Damping ratio, Droop | Metropolis–Hastings algorithm | – | – |
[139], 2019 | China | IEEE Conference | Principal component analysis–chaotic immune PSO-GRNN | Cooling water | Corrosion | PSO-GRNN algorithm | ARE | Petrochemical enterprises |
[140], 2019 | UK | Electric Power Systems Research | Harmonic robust grid synchronization | Grid | Voltage signal | Second-order generalized integrator-frequency locked loop technique | Phase estimation error | – |
[141], 2019 | China | Applied Soft Computing | Fuzzy information granules, LSTM-FNN | Zurich monthly sunspot numbers, Mackey–Glass model, Daily maximum temperatures in Melbourne | Time series, Granules | AR, Nonlinear AR neural network | RMSE, MAPE, MAE | – |
[142], 2019 | Switzerland | IEEE Conference | Chaos–Rivest shamir adleman, Chaos–Random number generator | Crypto system | Security vulnerabilities | – | – | – |
[143], 2019 | China | IEEE Conference | Correlation matrix augmentation | Bistatic co-prime MIMO array | Directions of departure and arrival | ESPRIT-Root MUSIC and RD-Root MUSIC | RMSE | – |
[144], 2019 | China | Renewable Energy | Markov chain switching regime | Wind farm | Speed, direction | Neural network, SVM | MAE, RMSE, MAPE | Bonneville power administration, Washington, USA |
[145], 2019 | USA | IEEE Conference | True random number generator | Chaotic jerk system | Sampling period | Pseudo random number generator | – | – |
[146], 2019 | USA | IEEE Signal Processing Letters | Kalman filter | Synchronous generator | Computing time | EKF | RMSE | – |
[147], 2019 | China | IEEE Access | Chaotic optimized-PSO | Mobile | Location | Chan, Taylor, PSO | RMSE, MSE | – |
[148], 2019 | China | Journal of Power Sources | Fractional-order | Li-ion battery and ultra-capacitor hybrid power source system | Load current, power | – | MAE, RMSE, MRE | – |
[149], 2019 | USA | IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid | Response surface-based Bayesian inference | Power system | Inertia, Exciter gains, damping ratio, droop | Traditional Bayesian inference | PE | North American electric reliability corporation, Atlanta, USA |
[150], 2019 | China | Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications | Electric field detector-Chaos SVM | Aircrafts | Accidents | SVM, Chaos SVM | NMAE, NRMSE, NMAPE | National transportation safety board, USA |
[151], 2020 | USA | IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics | Multifidelity-surrogate-based Bayesian inference via adaptive importance sampling | Synchronous generator | Inertia, Exciter gains, Damping ratio, Droop | Importance sampling-based, polynomial chaos expansion-based-Bayesian inference models | NRMSE | Generator in New England test system, USA |
[152], 2020 | China | IEEE Access | Fractal dimension-Lorenz stenflo-Ensemble EMD, GA-BPNN | Wind farm | Speed | Ensemble EMD-GA-BPNN, LS-Ensemble EMD-GA-BPNN | RMSE, MAE, MAPE | Wind farm in Abbotsford, Canada |
[153], 2020 | China | IEEE Communications Letters | Amplitude phase shift keying based M-Ary-DCSK | Chaos shift Keying modulation system | SER, BER, PAPR | QAM based M-DCSK system | – | – |
[154], 2020 | Canada | IEEE Access | ML-PSV | Blind system | Frequency | MPSV technique | MSE | – |
[155], 2020 | China | IET Renewable Power Generation | Chaos theory, Ensemble EMD | PV System | Output power | Chaos-GA-BPNN, Ensemble EMD-GA-BPNN, NWP-GA-BPNN | MAPE, RMSE, MAE | St Lucia campus PV station, Australia 1 |
[156], 2020 | China | Complexity | Variational mode decomposition-Maximum relevance minimum redundancy-BPNN-LS-SVM | Power system | Load | EMD, Ensemble EMD | MAE, RMSE, MAPE | Xi’an power grid corporation, China |
[157], 2020 | Malaysia | Chaos, Solitons and Fractals | RNN-based LSTM | COVID-19 | Mutation rate | – | RMSE | NCBI GenBank 1 |
[158], 2020 | Taiwan | Energies | CNN-SSA | PV system | Power | SVM-SSA, LSTM-Neural network-SSA | MAPE, MRE | – |
[159], 2020 | Belgium | IEEE Conference | General polynomial chaos | Distribution systems | Power | Monte Carlo | RMSE | European test feeder |
[160], 2020 | South Korea | IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement | UKF | EEG dynamic model | Optimal parameters | Particle filter, EKF | RMSE | Intracranial EEG data set 2 |
[161], 2020 | China | IEEE Access | Novel hybrid Jaya–Powell | Lorenz system | Relative error of the stopping criterion, fitness value | Jaya, Powell, TLBO, PSO, GA, CCO | RMSE | – |
[162], 2020 | China | Neural Processing Letters | Deep CNN | Flight | Training set loss value, Gradient value | CNN | Weight gradient, Hidden layer errors | – |
[163], 2020 | USA | IEEE Transactions on Power Systems | Hybrid MCMC | Power system | Inertia, Exciter gains, Damping ratio, Droop | Langevin MCMC algorithm | NRMSE | North American electric reliability corporation, Atlanta, USA |
[164], 2021 | Germany | Applied Energy | Non-intrusive load monitoring algorithm | Commercial buildings, Industries | Power | – | RMSE, MAE, MSLE, MAPE | – |
[165], 2021 | USA | Renewable Energy | Empirical dynamical modeling | Wind farm | Speed | Benchmark model | RMSE, MAE | Department of natural resources, Missouri |
[166], 2021 | China | IEEE Conference | BFA tuned double-reservoir ESN | Wind farm | Load | ESN | MAE, MSE, RMSE, MAPE | – |
[167], 2021 | China | Journal of Ambient Intelligence and Humanized Computing | Hybrid prediction | Wind farm | Power | – | Maximum value, Minimum value, Mean value, standard deviation | Wind farm of Hebei province, China 1 |
[168], 2021 | China | Optics Express | LSTM neural network | Optics | Amplitude | ACF, DMI, CNN | Signal-to-noise ratio | – |
[169], 2021 | Mexico | Neural Processing Letters | Gate recurrent unit-Deep RNN | Lorenz, Rabinovich–Fabrikant, Rossler systems | Time series | LSTM-Deep RNN | – | 2 |
[170], 2021 | China | Chaos, Solitons and Fractals | TCN-CBAM | Chen, Lorenz, sunspot systems | Time series | LSTM, Hybrid CNN-LSTM, TCN | RMSE, MAE, R | Solar influences data analysis center, Belgium 3 |
[171], 2021 | China | IEEE Sensors | CBAS-Elman neural network | Polyvinyl chloride polymerization | Temperature | CBAS-BPNN, CBAS-SVM | RMSE, MAE | – |
[172], 2021 | Egypt | IEEE Access | CGO | Three diode PV model | Voltage, Current, Power | IGWO, MRFO, HBO, AOA | RMSE, IAE, APE | – |
[173], 2021 | China | Nonlinear Dynamics | ESN-GWO | Mackey–Glass, Lorenz systems | Time series | ESN, PSO-ESN, GWO-ESN | RMSE | – |
[174], 2021 | China | IEEE Access | YCO-PCS | Microwave filters | Yield | YCO | RMSE | – |
[175], 2021 | Australia | Energy | Adaptive variational mode decomposition-AOA-LSTM | Wind turbine | Power | Polynomial neural networks, FFNN, LSTM | MSE, RMSE, MAE, R | – |
[176], 2021 | China | IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology | Adaptive RBFNN | Online vehicle | Velocity | LSTM-Neural network, NARX-Neural network, Deep neural network | RMSE, ARMSE | Dongfeng Fengon Car |
[177], 2021 | India | International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science | FFNN | Fractional-order Chaotic Oscillators | System states | RNN | R, MSE | – |
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Ramadevi, B.; Bingi, K. Chaotic Time Series Forecasting Approaches Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Review. Symmetry 2022, 14, 955. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym14050955
Ramadevi B, Bingi K. Chaotic Time Series Forecasting Approaches Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Review. Symmetry. 2022; 14(5):955. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym14050955
Chicago/Turabian StyleRamadevi, Bhukya, and Kishore Bingi. 2022. "Chaotic Time Series Forecasting Approaches Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Review" Symmetry 14, no. 5: 955. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym14050955