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Transport

Why is transport important?

Motorised transport on land, sea and air remains dependent on internal combustion engines that generally run on fossil fuels. Transport accounts for more than a third of CO2 emissions from end‐use sectors.

What is the role of transport in clean energy transitions?

Aligning transportation with the IEA's Net Zero Scenario requires implementing a broad set of policies to encourage shifts to the least carbon-intensive travel options and operational and technical energy efficiency measures to reduce the carbon intensity of all transport modes.

Where do we need to go?

The Net Zero Scenario requires transport sector emissions to fall by around a quarter by 2030, even as transport demand continues to grow. Policies need to encourage shifting to less carbon-intensive travel options, such as walking, cycling, and public transport, as well as to more efficient technologies, like electric cars and trucks.

Motorised transport on land, sea and air remains dependent on internal combustion engines that generally run on fossil fuels. Transport accounts for more than a third of CO2 emissions from end‐use sectors.

Aligning transportation with the IEA's Net Zero Scenario requires implementing a broad set of policies to encourage shifts to the least carbon-intensive travel options and operational and technical energy efficiency measures to reduce the carbon intensity of all transport modes.

The Net Zero Scenario requires transport sector emissions to fall by around a quarter by 2030, even as transport demand continues to grow. Policies need to encourage shifting to less carbon-intensive travel options, such as walking, cycling, and public transport, as well as to more efficient technologies, like electric cars and trucks.

Tracking Transport

Not on track

In 2022, the rebound in passenger and cargo transport activity following the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic led to a 3% increase in transport CO2 emissions compared to the previous year. Transport emissions grew at an annual average rate of 1.7% from 1990 to 2022, faster than any other end-use sector except for industry (which also grew at around 1.7%). To get on track with the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 Scenario, CO2 emissions from the transport sector must fall by more than 3% per year to 2030. Strong regulations and fiscal incentives, as well as considerable investment in infrastructure to enable low- and zero-emission vehicle operations, will be needed to achieve these emissions reductions. 

Major economies have adopted important policies to support uptake of electric vehicles and promote transport decarbonisation across multiple modes

CO2 emissions from transport continued to rebound in 2022, nearly returning to their 2019 level

Global CO2 emissions from transport by sub-sector in the Net Zero Scenario, 2000-2030

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In 2022 global CO2 emissions from the transport sector grew by more than 250 Mt CO2 to nearly 8 Gt CO2, 3% more than in 2021. Aviation was responsible for much of the increase, as air travel continued to rebound from pandemic lows to around 70% of 2019 levels. Tempering this increase, EVs continued to gain momentum in 2022, with over 10 million cars sold globally, reaching 14% of all car sales. Emissions are still lower than in 2019, demonstrating the lingering effects of the pandemic on passenger and cargo activity. 

Getting on track with the NZE Scenario would require transport emissions to fall by about 25% to around 6 Gt by 2030, even with an anticipated growth in demand. Achieving this drop will depend on the rapid electrification of road vehicles, operational and technical energy efficiency measures, the commercialisation and scale-up of low-emissions fuels, especially in the maritime and aviation sub-sectors, and policies to encourage modal shift to less carbon-intensive travel. 

Transport continues to rely on oil products for nearly 91% of its final energy, down only 3.5 percentage points from the early 1970s

Energy consumption in transport by fuel in the Net Zero Scenario, 1975-2030

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Motorised transport remains dependent on oil, and more generally, on combustion engines that run on liquids or natural gas. The share of biofuels consumed by such vehicles have increased from less than half a percent in 1990 to about 3.5% in 2022, as a result of decades of policy support, but the implications for GHG emissions on a well-to-wheels basis vary considerably, depending on the feedstock and conversion technologies. 

As with other end-use technologies, the electrification of road vehicles is the most promising pathway to increasing conversion efficiencies and reducing GHG emissions. Lifecycle efficiency and emission reductions compound as the share of renewables in power generation continues to grow. 

The long-tail effects of the pandemic continue to affect transport emissions, and may hold lessons for behavioural change with regards to transport

The need to monitor the impacts of the pandemic on economic activity, as well as the impacts of response measures on mobility, led to an increase in availability of real-time or near real-time indices tracking mobility. Some track the movement of people, others compare trends in the number of weekly commercial passenger aviation flights, and others still track public transport use, or international shipping traffic

The impacts of the pandemic on activity, and hence on energy use and emissions from transport, are complex. They include: 

The pandemic demonstrated the activity reductions that result from an acute public health crisis, but as activity is now rebounding, there may be lessons on how changes in lifestyle and behaviour can both reduce energy use and emissions and lead to healthier and more resilient societies outside of a pandemic context.  

The past year has seen a world first on innovative battery chemistries, but continued emphasis is required on bringing to market and scaling up efficient technologies for vehicles

Continued research and innovation are required in battery technology, from the development of advanced cathode and anode materials through to scalable manufacturing processes for next-generation batteries, to improving and scaling up both end-of-life battery management and recycling. Innovation continues to make progress in improving energy density, reducing cost and improving safety. Priority should be given to reducing the intensity of critical metals in batteries, such as nickel and lithium, where supply challenges already exist.  

The year 2023 saw the first commercially available electric car with a sodium-ion battery, and technological progress (the chemistry was at technology-readiness level (TRL) 4 only a few years ago) has led to projections that this novel battery chemistry will enter the market by 2030, potentially easing some challenges facing road electrification related to cost and critical minerals supply. 

Efficient technologies to reduce the fuel requirements of ships and aircraft are being developed. For ships, options include wind propulsion and assistance, for which many designs can be retrofitted. In aircraft, entirely new airframe and engine designs, such as blended wing-body aircraft or ultra-high-bypass ratio jet engines, can reduce fuel burn by more than 20%.  

Enabling ships and planes to run on alternative fuels will also play a role in reducing emissions. Promising demonstrations have included ships capable of running on hydrogen, ammonia and methanol, while hybrid electric aircraft and aircraft running on hydrogen – including via direct combustion, via onboard fuel cells, or a hybrid of the two – are at various stages of conceptual design and prototyping.  

Governments are increasingly recognising the importance of electrifying cars, but climate leaders must also focus on challenges in reducing emissions from road freight, shipping and aviation

The share of energy covered by fuel economy and/or vehicle efficiency policies has more than doubled over the past two decades, from less than 25% of road transport energy consumption covered in 2000 to more than half in 2022. About 50 countries now have fuel economy and/or vehicle efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles in place, and nearly 40 (including EU member states) have such standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. 

Share of road transport energy covered by fuel economy and/or vehicle efficiency standards in 2000, 2010 and 2022

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Rapid and continuing progress in the electrification of road transport has been one of the bright spots of the clean energy transition. Policy momentum has been instrumental to the progress made to date, and is still building, shifting from an exclusive focus on demand-side subsidies to supply-side mandates, and to incentives and other forms of support to accelerate the scale-up, technological advancement, and resilience and diversification of EV battery value chains. 

Electric trucks have so far been substantially deployed only in China, thanks to strong government support. In the past few years, however, several other countries have announced support for truck electrification, and sustained policy support will be needed to enable rapid deployment. Electric trucks accounted for just over 1% of global truck sales in 2022, a sales share that reaches around one-third by 2030 in the NZE Scenario.  

Subsidies have driven EV deployment to date, but incentive structures must evolve once EVs gain double-digit market shares

Worldwide consumer and government spending on electric cars continued to increase in 2022. Total spending on electric cars increased by 50% over 2021 to reach USD 425 billion. Most of this was spent by private or corporate consumers on electric vehicles. The government share of total spending on electric cars remained at 10%, having steadily declined from more than 20% in 2017. 

The current rate of spending on EVs remains compatible with the year-on-year growth rate required to reach the investment levels of the NZE Scenario. Maintaining strong sales growth will depend on a multiplicity of factors, including deployment of charging infrastructure, the availability of car models, and battery costs. These require continuous government support and private sector investment. 

As the electric car market matures, reliance on direct subsidies must decrease and eventually disappear. Incentives offered by governments are gradually switching focus from consumers to charging infrastructure and battery manufacturing, leading to record investments in new battery manufacturing capacity being announced in 2022. Budget-neutral feebate programmes – which tax inefficient internal combustion engine vehicles to finance subsidies for low-emission vehicle or EV purchases – can be a useful transition policy tool.  

Fuel taxation that reflects the societal and environmental impacts of driving internal combustion engine vehicles, together with stringent vehicle efficiency or CO2 standards, have helped leading markets increase EV adoption, and should be implemented by countries seeking to hasten the transition to electromobility. 

A range of public, private and public–private initiatives have been developed to reduce emissions across road, shipping and aviation

Internationally aligned standards, regulations and targets will be critical to reducing CO2 emissions from international aviation and shipping, particularly as these sectors are outside the scope of all countries’ UNFCCC pledges. As such, agreements on stringent and binding regulations will need to be agreed by the UN agencies that co‑ordinate such actions for these sectors: the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO). An outline of the targets and initiatives of these and other organisations are provided in the aviation and international shipping sectoral topic sites. 

Road sector initiatives, both for light- and heavy-duty vehicles, either focus on both efficiency and promoting zero-emission vehicles, or exclusively on electrification (which in many cases tacitly includes fuel cell electric options). Initiatives focusing on zero-emission vehicles and/or electric vehicles include: 

  • The Accelerating to Zero (A2Z) coalition launched at the Conference of the Parties (COP 27) co-ordinates leading initiatives that work to accelerate the adoption of zero-emissions vehicles. The coalition builds on the Zero Emission Vehicles Declaration which has 223 signatories as of May 2023. 
  • The Electric Vehicle Initiative, under the Clean Energy Ministerial, with 16 member countries and the International Energy Agency as the secretariat. 
  • The EV100 and EV100+ Campaigns, launched in 2018 and 2022, respectively, by the Climate Group. Signatories of the EV100+ campaign commit to transition their fleet of vehicles over 7.5 t to zero emission by 2040 in OECD markets, China and India.  
  • In 2021, the Dutch government and CALSTART’s Drive to Zero Campaign launched the Global Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy Duty Vehicles, through which signatories commit to work together to achieve 100% ZEV bus and truck sales by 2040, with an interim goal of 30% by 2030. In 2022, 11 countries signed the MoU, bringing the total number of countries and territories among the signatories to 27. These account for over 15% of total annual sales of new medium and heavy-duty vehicles worldwide. 

We would like to thank the following external reviewers:

  • Mohamed Hegazi, founder and Director of Transport for Cairo (TfC) L.L.P
  • François Cuenot, UNECE

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