Search Results (2,631)

Accurate forecasting of wind power is crucial for addressing energy demands, promoting sustainable energy practices, and mitigating environmental challenges. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of wind power, a VMD-CNN-BiLSTM hybrid model with physical constraints is proposed in this paper. Initially, the isolation forest algorithm identifies samples that deviate from actual power outputs, and the LightGBM algorithm is used to reconstruct the abnormal samples. Then, leveraging the variational mode decomposition (VMD) approach, the reconstructed data are decomposed into 13 sub-signals. Each sub-signal is trained using a CNN-BiLSTM model, yielding individual prediction results. Finally, the XGBoost algorithm is introduced to add the physical penalty term to the loss function. The predicted value of each sub-signal is taken as the input to get the predicted result of wind power. The hybrid model is applied to the 12 h forecast of a wind farm in Zhangjiakou City, Hebei province. Compared with other hybrid forecasting models, this model has the highest score on five performance indicators and can provide reference for wind farm generation planning, safe grid connection, real-time power dispatching, and practical application of sustainable energy. Full article

Accurate sales forecasting for new products is critical in industries characterized by intense competition, rapid innovation, and short product life cycles, such as the smartphone market. This study proposes a data-driven framework that enhances prediction accuracy by combining homogeneity-based clustering with an ensemble learning approach. Unlike traditional methods that depend on product-specific attributes, our approach utilizes historical sales data from similar products, overcoming attribute dependency. Using K-means clustering, the training data are segmented into homogeneous groups, and tailored ensemble forecasting models are developed for each cluster by combining five machine learning models: Random Forest, Extra Tree, XGBoost, LightGBM, and TabNet. When tested on South Korean smartphone sales data, the framework achieves superior performance, with the optimal ensemble model using four clusters delivering an MAPE of 8.3309% and an RMSPE of 7.8360%, significantly outperforming traditional single-cluster models. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of leveraging data homogeneity and ensemble methods, offering a scalable and adaptable solution for accurate sales forecasting of new products. Full article

Corporate financing decisions, particularly the choice between equity and debt, significantly impact a company’s financial health and value. This study predicts binary corporate debt levels (high or low) using supervised machine learning (ML) models and firms’ characteristics as predictive variables. Key features include companies’ size, tangibility, profitability, liquidity, growth opportunities, risk, and industry. Deterministic models, represented by logistic regression and multilevel logistic regression, and stochastic approaches that incorporate a certain degree of randomness or probability, including decision trees, random forests, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machines, and Artificial Neural Networks, were evaluated using usual metrics. The results indicate that decision trees, random forest, and XGBoost excelled in the training phase but showed higher overfitting when evaluated in the test sample. Deterministic models, in contrast, were less prone to overfitting. Notably, all models delivered statistically similar results in the test sample, emphasizing the need to balance performance, simplicity, and interpretability. These findings provide actionable insights for managers to benchmark their company’s debt level and improve financing strategies. Furthermore, this study contributes to ML applications in corporate finance by comparing deterministic and stochastic models in predicting capital structure, offering a robust tool to enhance managerial decision-making and optimize financial strategies. Full article

Identifying the tectonic setting of rocks is essential for gaining insights into the geological contexts in which these rocks were formed, aiding in tectonic plate reconstruction and enhancing our comprehensive understanding of the Earth’s history. The application of machine learning algorithms helps identify complex patterns and relationships between big data that may be overlooked by binary or ternary tectonomagmatic discrimination diagrams based on basalt compositions. In this study, three machine learning algorithms, i.e., Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), were employed to classify the basalts from seven diverse settings, including intraplate basalts, island arc basalts, ocean island basalts, mid-ocean ridge basalts, back-arc basin basalts, oceanic flood basalts, and continental flood basalts. Specifically, for altered and fresh basalt samples, we utilized 22 immobile elements and 35 major and trace elements, respectively, to construct discrimination models. The results indicate that XGBoost demonstrates the best performance in discriminating basalts into seven tectonic settings, achieving accuracies of 85% and 89% for the altered and fresh basalt samples, respectively. A key innovation of our newly developed tectonic discrimination model is the establishment of tailored models for altered and fresh basalts. Moreover, by omitting isotopic features during model construction, the new models offer broader applicability in predicting a wider range of basalt samples in practical scenarios. The classification models were applied to investigate the Carboniferous to Permian evolution in the Western Tianshan Orogen (WTO), revealing that the subduction of Tianshan Ocean ceased at the end of Carboniferous and the WTO evolved into a post-collisional orogenesis during the Permian. Full article

The size distribution of rock fragments significantly influences subsequent operations in geotechnical and mining engineering projects. Thus, accurate prediction of this distribution according to the relevant blasting design parameters is essential. This study employs artificial intelligence methods to predict the fragmentation of open-pit bench blasting. The study employed a dataset comprising 97 blast fragment samples. Random forest and XGBoost models were utilized as base learners. A prediction model was developed using the stacking integrated strategy to enhance predictive performance. The model’s performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R²), the mean square error (MSE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the mean absolute error (MAE). The results indicated that the model achieved the highest prediction accuracy, with an R² of 0.943. In the training set, the model achieved MSE, RMSE, and MAE values of 0.00269, 0.05187, and 0.03320, while in the testing set, these values were 0.00197, 0.04435, and 0.03687, respectively. The model was validated using five sets of actual blasting block data from a northeastern mining area, which yielded more accurate prediction results. These findings demonstrate that the stacking strategy effectively enhances the prediction performance of a single model and offers innovative approaches to predicting blasting block size. Full article

Incomplete environmental datasets pose significant challenges in developing accurate predictive models, particularly in hydrological research. This study addresses data missingness by investigating gap imputation methodologies for datasets with 5–20% data absence, focusing on the Mureș River in Romania. Utilizing a novel approach, we applied various imputation techniques, including the ratio method, Kalman filtering, and machine learning algorithms (XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, Random Forest and CatBoost), while developing an innovative self-assessment metric for evaluating imputation performance without relying on external reference data. Through systematic analysis of hydrological station data from four monitoring points, we artificially introduced data gaps to rigorously test method applicability. The research demonstrates the feasibility of constructing a robust self-evaluation framework for selecting optimal imputation techniques, potentially enhancing data reliability and analytical precision in environmental and geospatial research. Our findings contribute a structured methodology for addressing data incompleteness, offering researchers a quantitative approach to improving dataset integrity and predictive modeling in complex environmental systems. Full article

Pressure transmitters are widely used in the process industry for pressure measurement. The sensing line, a core component of the pressure sensor in the pressure transmitter, significantly impacts the accuracy of the pressure transmitter’s output. The reliability of pressure transmitters is critical in the nuclear power industry. Blockage is recognized as a common failure in pressure sensing lines; therefore, a novel detection method based on Trend Features in Time–Frequency domain characteristics (TFTF) is proposed in this paper. The dataset of pressure transmitters comprises both fault and normal data. This method innovatively integrates multi-scale time series decomposition algorithms with time-domain and frequency-domain feature extraction techniques. Initially, this dataset is decomposed into multi-scale time series to mitigate periodic component interference in diagnosis. Subsequently, via the sliding window algorithm, both the time-domain features and frequency-domain features of the trend components are extracted, and finally, the XGBoost algorithm is used to detect faults. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed TFTF algorithm achieves superior fault detection accuracy for diagnosing sensing line blockage faults compared with traditional machine learning classification algorithms. Full article

Grassland ecosystems provide a range of services in semi-arid and arid regions. However, they have significantly declined due to overgrazing and desertification. In the current study, we employed Landsat time series data (TM, OLI, OLI-2) spanning from 1990 to 2024, combined with vegetation indices such as NDVI and SAVI, along with NDWI and digital elevation models (DEMs), to analyze land cover dynamics in the Ugii Lake watershed area, Mongolia. By integrating multisource remote sensing data into the advanced XGBoost (extreme gradient boosting) machine learning algorithm, we achieved high classification accuracy, with overall accuracies exceeding 94% and Kappa coefficients greater than 0.92. The results revealed a decline in montane grasslands (−6.2%) and an increase in other grassland types, suggesting ecosystem redistribution influenced by climatic and anthropogenic factors. Cropland exhibited resilience, recovering from a significant decline in the 1990s to moderate growth by 2024. Our findings highlight the stability of barren land and underscore pressures from ecological degradation and human activities. This study provides up-to-date statistical data to support decision-making in the conservation and sustainable management of grassland ecosystems in Mongolia under changing climatic conditions. Full article

This study explores the predictability of monthly asthma notifications using models built from different machine learning techniques in Maceió, a municipality with a tropical climate located in the northeast of Brazil. Two sets of predictors were combined and tested, the first containing meteorological variables and pollutants, called exp1, and the second only meteorological variables, called exp2. For both experiments, tests were also carried out incorporating lagged information from the time series of asthma records. The models were trained on 80% of the data and validated on the remaining 20%. Among the five methods evaluated—random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), support vector machine (SVM), and K-nearest neighbors (KNN)—the RF models showed superior performance, notably those of exp1 when incorporating lagged asthma notifications as an additional predictor. Minimum temperature and sulfur dioxide emerged as key variables, probably due to their associations with respiratory health and pollution levels, emphasizing their role in asthma exacerbation. The autocorrelation of the residuals was assessed due to the inclusion of lagged variables in some experiments. The results highlight the importance of pollutant and meteorological factors in predicting asthma cases, with implications for public health monitoring. Despite the limitations presented and discussed, this study demonstrates that forecast accuracy improves when a wider range of lagged variables are used, and indicates the suitability of RF for health datasets with complex time series. Full article

This study employs multi-source remote sensing information and machine learning methods to comprehensively assess the geological background, structural features, alteration anomalies, and spectral characteristics of the Malkansu Manganese Ore Belt in Xinjiang. Manganese mineralization is predicted, and areas with high mineralization potential are delineated. The results of the feature factor weight analysis indicate that structural density and lithological characteristics contribute most significantly to manganese mineralization. Notably, linear structures are aligned with the direction of the manganese belt, and areas exhibiting high controlling structural density are closely associated with the locations of mineral deposits, suggesting that structure plays a crucial role in manganese production in this region. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) values for the Random Forest (RF), Naïve Bayes (NB), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models were 0.975, 0.983, and 0.916, respectively, indicating that all three models achieved a high level of performance and interpretability. Among these, the NB model demonstrated the highest performance. By algebraically overlaying the predictions from these three machine learning models, a comprehensive mineralization favorability map was generated, identifying 11 prospective mineralization zones. The performance metrics of the machine learning models validate their robustness, while regional tectonics and stratigraphic lithology provide valuable characteristic factors for this approach. This study integrates multi-source remote sensing information with machine learning methods to enhance the effectiveness of manganese prediction, thereby offering new research perspectives for manganese forecasting in the Malkansu Manganese Ore Belt. Full article

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are a significant public health and safety concern, resulting in numerous injuries and fatalities. The growing number of cases referred to traffic accident rooms in courts has underscored the necessity for an automated solution to determine victim indemnifications, particularly given the limited number of specialized judges and the complexity of cases involving multiple victims. This paper introduces RTACompensator, an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven decision support system designed to automate indemnification calculations for road accident victims. The system comprises two main components: a calculation module that determines initial compensation based on factors such as age, salary, and medical assessments, and a machine learning (ML) model that assigns liability based on police accident reports. The model uses Arabic bidirectional encoder representations from transformer (AraBERT) embeddings to generate contextual vectors from the report, which are then processed by extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to determine responsibility. The model was trained on a purpose-built Arabic corpus derived from real-world legal judgments. To expand the dataset, two data augmentation techniques were employed: multilingual bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) and Gemini, developed by Google DeepMind. Experimental results demonstrate the model’s effectiveness, achieving accuracy scores of 97% for the BERT-augmented corpus and 97.3% for the Gemini-augmented corpus. These results underscore the system’s potential to improve decision-making in road accident indemnifications. Additionally, the constructed corpus provides a valuable resource for further research in this domain, laying the groundwork for future advancements in automating and refining the indemnification process. Full article

Classifying imbalanced data is a well-known challenge in machine learning. One of the fields inherently affected by imbalanced data is credit datasets in finance. In this study, to address this challenge, we employed one of the most recent methods developed for classifying imbalanced data, CorrOV-CSEn. In addition to the original CorrOV-CSEn approach, which uses AdaBoost as its base learning method, we also applied Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), random forest, gradient boosted trees, XGBoost, and CatBoost. Our dataset, sourced from the Iran capital market from 2015 to 2022, utilizes the more general and accurate term business failure instead of default. Model performance was evaluated using sensitivity, precision, and F1 score, while their overall performance was compared using the Friedman–Nemenyi test. The results indicate the high effectiveness of all models in identifying failing businesses (sensitivity), with CatBoost achieving a sensitivity of 0.909 on the test data. However, all models exhibited relatively low precision. Full article

Leaf area index (LAI) serves as a crucial indicator for characterizing the growth and development process of maize. However, the LAI inversion of maize based on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is highly susceptible to various factors such as weather conditions, light intensity, and sensor performance. In contrast to satellites, the spectral stability of UAV-based data is relatively inferior, and the phenomenon of “spectral fragmentation” is prone to occur during large-scale monitoring. This study was designed to solve the problem that maize LAI inversion based on UAVs is difficult to achieve both high spatial resolution and spectral consistency. A two-stage remote sensing data fusion method integrating coarse and fine fusion was proposed. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) model was introduced to investigate the contributions of 20 features in 7 categories to LAI inversion of maize, and canopy temperature extracted from thermal infrared images was one of them. Additionally, the most suitable feature sampling window was determined through multi-scale sampling experiments. The grid search method was used to optimize the hyperparameters of models such as Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, and Random Forest, and their accuracy was compared. The results showed that, by utilizing a 3 × 3 feature sampling window and 9 features with the highest contributions, the LAI inversion accuracy of the whole growth stage based on Random Forest could reach R² = 0.90 and RMSE = 0.38 m²/m². Compared with the single UAV data source mode, the inversion accuracy was enhanced by nearly 25%. The R² in the jointing, tasseling, and filling stages were 0.87, 0.86, and 0.62, respectively. Moreover, this study verified the significant role of thermal infrared data in LAI inversion, providing a new method for fine LAI inversion of maize. Full article

Heart rate variability (HRV) is a non-invasive health and fitness indicator, and machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for analysing large HRV datasets. This study aims to identify athletic characteristics using the HRV test and ML algorithms. Two models were developed: Model 1 (M1) classified athletes and non-athletes using 856 observations from high-performance athletes and 494 from non-athletes. Model 2 (M2) identified an individual soccer player within a team based on 105 observations from the player and 514 from other team members. Three ML algorithms were applied —Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Support Vector Machine (SVM)— and SHAP values were used to interpret the results. In M1, the SVM algorithm achieved the highest performance (accuracy = 0.84, ROC AUC = 0.91), while in M2 Random Forest performed best (accuracy = 0.92, ROC AUC = 0.94). Based on these results, we propose an athleticism index and a soccer identification index derived from HRV data. The findings suggest that ML algorithms, such as SVM and RF, can effectively generate indices based on HRV for identifying individuals with athletic characteristics or distinguishing athletes with specific sports profiles. These insights underscore the importance of integrating HRV assessments systematically into training regimens for enhanced athletic evaluation. Full article

The rapid advancement of technology has increased the complexity of cyber fraud, presenting a growing challenge for the banking sector to efficiently detect fraudulent credit card transactions. Conventional detection approaches face challenges in adapting to the continuously evolving tactics of fraudsters. This study addresses these limitations by proposing an innovative hybrid model that integrates Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) techniques through a stacking ensemble and resampling strategies. The hybrid model leverages ML techniques including Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), and Logistic Regression (LR) alongside DL techniques such as Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network (BiLSTM) with attention mechanisms. By utilising the stacking ensemble method, the model consolidates predictions from multiple base models, resulting in improved predictive accuracy compared to individual models. The methodology incorporates robust data pre-processing techniques. Experimental evaluations demonstrate the superior performance of the hybrid ML+DL model, particularly in handling class imbalances and achieving a high F1 score, achieving an F1 score of 94.63%. This result underscores the effectiveness of the proposed model in delivering reliable cyber fraud detection, highlighting its potential to enhance financial transaction security. Full article