Search Results (284)

The time and spatial variability of hail events limit the capability of diagnosing the occurrence and stones’ size in thunderstorms using weather radars. The bibliography presents multiple variables and methods with different pros and cons. The studied area, the Lleida Plain, is annually hit by different hailstorms, which have a high impact on the agricultural sector. A rectangular distributed hail pad network in this plain has worked operationally since 2000 to provide information regarding different aspects of hail impact. Since 2002, the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya (SMC) has operated a single-pol C-band weather radar network that volumetrically covers the region of interest. During these years, the SMC staff has been working on improving the capability of detecting hail, adapting some parameters and searching for thresholds that help to identify the occurrence and size of the stones in thunderstorms. The current research analyzes a twenty-year period (2004–2023) to provide a good picture of the hailstorms occurring in the region of interest. The main research result is that VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid) density is a better indicator for hailstone size than VIL, which presents more uncertainty in discriminating different hail categories. Full article

Measurements of downburst outflows using standard meteorological instruments (e.g., anemometers) are rare due to their transient and localized nature. However, video recordings of such events are becoming more frequent. This short communication (Technical Note) study presents a new approach to estimating the kinematics of a downburst event using video footage recordings of the event. The main geometric dimensions of the event, such as downdraft diameter, cloud base height, outflow depth, and the radius of the outflow at a given moment in time, are estimated by sizing them against reference structures of known dimensions that are present in the video footage. From this analysis, and knowing the frame rate of the video recording, one can estimate the characteristic velocities in the downburst event, such as the mean downdraft velocity and the mean velocity of the radial outflow propagation. The proposed method is tested on an August 2015 downburst event that hit Tucson, Arizona, United States. The diameter of the downburst outflow increased with the time from approximately 1.10 km to 3.35 km. This range of values indicates that the event was a microburst. The mean descending velocity of downburst downdraft was 8.9 m s⁻¹ and the horizontal velocity of outflow propagation was 17.7 m s⁻¹. The latter velocity is similar to the measured wind gust at the nearby weather station and Doppler radar. The outflow depth is estimated at 160 m, and the cloud base height was approximately 1.24 km. Estimating the kinematics of downbursts using video footage, while subject to certain limitations, does yield a useful estimation of the main downburst kinematics that contribute to a better quantification of these localized windstorms. Full article

Rwanda, in eastern tropical Africa, is a small, densely populated country where climatic disasters are often the cause of considerable damage and deaths. Landslides are among the most frequent hazards, linked to the country’s peculiar configuration including high relief with steep slopes, humid tropical climate with heavy rainfall, intense deforestation over the past 60 years, and extensive use of the soil for agriculture. The Karongi region, in the west-central part of the country, was affected by an exceptional cluster of more than 700 landslides during a single night (6–7 May 2018) over an area of 100 km². We analyse the causes of this spectacular event based on field geological and geomorphology investigation and CHIRPS and ERA5-Land climate data. We demonstrate that (1) the notably steep slopes favoured soil instability; (2) the layered soil and especially the gravelly, porous C horizon allowed water storage and served as a detachment level for the landslides; (3) relatively low intensity, almost continuous rainfall over the previous two months lead to soil water-logging; and (4) acoustic waves from thunder or mechanical shaking by strong wind destabilized the water-logged soil through thixotropy triggering the landslides. This analysis should serve as a guide for forecasting landslide-triggering conditions in Rwanda. Full article

This paper proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model using a Multi-Stage method to optimize the configuration of an External Lightning Protection System (ELPS) and grounding system. ELPS is a system designed to protect an area from damage caused by lightning strikes. Meanwhile, the grounding system functions to direct excess electric current from lightning strikes into the ground. This study identifies the optimal protection system configuration, reducing the need for excessive components. The ELPS configuration includes the number of protection pole units and the height of the protection poles. In contrast, the grounding system configuration consists of the number of electrode units and the length of the electrodes. This study focuses on the protection system configuration at a Photovoltaic Power Station, where the area is highly vulnerable to lightning strikes. Several aspects need to be considered in determining the appropriate configuration, such as average thunderstorm days per year, ELPS efficiency, total area of photovoltaic module, area to be protected, soil resistivity, electrode spacing factor, and the total required electrode resistance. The proposed multi-stage ANN model consists of three processing stages, each responsible for handling a portion of the overall system tasks. The first stage is responsible for determining the protection pole configuration. In the second stage, the Lightning Protection Level (LPL) classification is performed. Then, in the third stage, the process of determining the grounding configuration is handled. The analysis results show that the Multi-Stage ANN model can effectively determine the configuration with a low error rate: MAE of 0.265, RMSE of 0.314, and MPE of 9.533%. This model can also explain data variation well, as indicated by the high $R^2$ value of 0.961. The comparison results conducted with ATP/EMTP software show that the configuration produced by ANN results in fewer protection pole units but with greater height. Meanwhile, ANN produces a configuration with shorter electrode lengths but fewer units in the grounding system. Full article

The atmosphere is a complex nonlinear system, with the information of its temperature, water vapor, pressure, and cloud being crucial aspects of remote-sensing data analysis. There exist intricate interactions among these internal components, such as convection, radiation, and humidity exchange. Atmospheric phenomena span multiple spatial and temporal scales, from small-scale thunderstorms to large-scale events like El Niño. The dynamic interactions across different scales, along with external disturbances to the atmospheric system, such as variations in solar radiation and Earth surface conditions, contribute to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, making long-term predictions challenging. Grasping the intrinsic chaotic dynamics is essential for advancing atmospheric analysis, which holds profound implications for enhancing meteorological forecasts, mitigating disaster risks, and safeguarding ecological systems. To validate the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, this paper reviewed the definitions and main features of chaotic systems, elucidated the method of phase space reconstruction centered on Takens’ theorem, and categorized the qualitative and quantitative methods for determining the chaotic nature of time series data. Among quantitative methods, the Wolf method is used to calculate the Largest Lyapunov Exponents, while the G–P method is used to calculate the correlation dimensions. A new method named Improved Saturated Correlation Dimension method was proposed to address the subjectivity and noise sensitivity inherent in the traditional G–P method. Subsequently, the Largest Lyapunov Exponents and saturated correlation dimensions were utilized to conduct a quantitative analysis of FY-4A and Himawari-8 remote-sensing infrared observation data, and ERA5 reanalysis data. For both short-term remote-sensing data and long-term reanalysis data, the results showed that more than 99.91% of the regional points have corresponding sequences with positive Largest Lyapunov exponents and all the regional points have correlation dimensions that tended to saturate at values greater than 1 with increasing embedding dimensions, thereby proving that the atmospheric system exhibits chaotic properties on both short and long temporal scales, with extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. This conclusion provided a theoretical foundation for the short-term prediction of atmospheric infrared radiation field variables and the detection of weak, time-sensitive signals in complex atmospheric environments. Full article

An investigation is undertaken to explore a sudden quasi-linear precipitation and gale event that transpired in the afternoon of 30 May 2024 over Beijing. It was situated at the southwestern periphery of a double-center low-vortex system, where a moisture-rich belt efficiently channeled abundant warm, humid air northward from the south. The interplay between dynamical lifting, convergent airflow-induced uplift, and the amplifying effects of the northern mountainous terrain’s topography creates favorable conditions that support the development and persistence of quasi-linear convective precipitation, accompanied by gale-force winds at the surface. The study also analyzes the impacts of five microphysics schemes (Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Morrison, and WDM6) employed in a weather research and forecasting (WRF) numerical model, with which the simulated rainfall and radar reflectivity are compared against ground-based rain gauge network and weather radar observations, respectively. Simulations with the five microphysics schemes demonstrate commendable skills in replicating the macroscopic quasi-linear pattern of the event. Among the schemes assessed, the WSM6 scheme exhibits its superior agreement with radar observations. The Morrison scheme demonstrates superior performance in predicting cumulative rainfall. Nevertheless, five microphysics schemes exhibit limitations in predicting the rainfall amount, the rainfall duration, and the rainfall area, with a discernible lag of approximately 30 min in predicting precipitation onset, indicating a tendency to forecast peak rainfall events slightly posterior to their true occurrence. Furthermore, substantial disparities emerge in the simulation of the vertical distribution of hydrometeors, underscoring the intricacies of microphysical processes. Full article

Downbursts belong to sudden, local, and strong convection weather, which present significant destruction for structures. At any given time, there are approximately 2000 thunderstorms occurring on the Earth. Many studies have investigated the effects of downbursts on different structures. However, the extensive range of varying wind field parameters and the diverse representations of wind speeds render the study of structural wind effects complex and challenging under downbursts. This study firstly reviews the research of wind field properties of downbursts according to four common approaches, and the major findings, advantages, and disadvantages of which are concluded. Then, failure analysis of transmission line systems under stationary and moving downbursts is explored. The article also reviews the wind pressure on the roof of different kinds of low-rise buildings, and some dominant parameters, namely roof slope, distance of building from downburst center, wind direction angle, and so on, are discussed. Moreover, the wind effects caused by downbursts on high-rise buildings and some specialized structures are also considered because more and more wind hazards are related to downbursts. Finally, the limitations of the current study are pointed out, and recommendations for further research are given for the accurate assessment of the effects of wind on buildings, with a view to providing safer and more economical wind-resistant design solutions for structures. Full article

Most damage to buildings across the contiguous United States of America (USA) is caused by gusts in convective events associated with thunderstorms. Design rules for structures to resist these events rely on the integrity of meteorological observations and the methods of assessment. These issues were addressed for the US Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) in six preliminary studies published in 2022 and 2023, allowing this present study to focus on the analysis and reporting of gust events observed between 2000 and 2023 at 642 well-exposed ASOS stations distributed across the contiguous USA. It has been recently recognized that the response of buildings to convective gusts, which are non-stationary transient events, differs in character from the response to the locally stationary atmospheric boundary gusts, requiring gust events to be classified and assessed by type. This study sorts the mixture of all observed gust events exceeding 20 kn, but excluding contributions from hurricanes and tropical storms, into five classes of valid meteorological types and two classes of invalid artefacts. The valid classes are individually fitted to optimal sub-asymptotic models through extreme value analysis. Classes are recombined into a joint mixture model and compared with current design rules. Full article

A strong and fast-moving electrical storm occurred in the Southwest Florida region overnight, from 01:00 UTC on 17 April to 07:00 UTC on 17 April 2023. Video recordings were conducted in the region at Latitude N 26.34° and Longitude W 81.79° for 5 h and 15 min, from 01:45 UTC to 07:00 UTC. The camera captured the flashes transforming from pinkish, violet, blue, and then emerald green in the sky twice: the first colored flash lasted 2.0 s, and the second one lasted 0.5 s. The characteristics of the flashes were analyzed using video images integrated with lightning flash data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). To gain deeper insights into the associated atmospheric conditions, the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) was also used to help understand the spectral anomalies. Both events had similarities: the same pattern of changing luminous colors in the optical images and the trajectory of the lightning discharges, showing clusters and horizontal distributions. Event 1 occurred mainly over the ocean and featured more intense storms, heavier rain, and denser, higher cloud-tops compared to Event 2, which occurred inland and involved dissipating storms. Moreover, the group energy detected in Event 1 was an order of magnitude higher than in Event 2. We attribute the wavelength of the recorded colored luminosity to varying atmospheric molecular concentrations, which ultimately contributed to the unique spectral line. In this study, we explore the correlation between colored flashes and specific atmospheric concentrations. Full article

Most of the lightning appears below the cloud or inside the cloud. Unlike conventional lightning, blue jets and gigantic jets (GJ) produce upward discharge since electric discharge occurs as a form of cloud-to-air leader. We analyzed a gigantic jet recorded in the 2022 Taiwan campaign. For our color photograph recorded in the observation, high spatial resolution (150 m) at a close distance (140 km) resolves the important spatial features of the GJ phenomena. First, the GJ propagated upwardly as the fully developed jet with a maximum height of ~80 km above the cloud top ~17 km. After the fully developed stage, the subsequent leader reached its top height of ~30 km with a width of 0.5–1.0 km. The subsequent leader attempted but failed to develop from leader to fully developed jet. The subsequent leader may be interpreted as a negative stepped leader associated with cloud rebrightening, similar to the subsequent stroke in the multi-stroke lightning. Besides, the relatively higher IC flash rates associated with the rise of cloud tops benefit the required meteorological conditions for developing gigantic jets. Full article

Progress in numerical models and improved computational capabilities have significantly advanced our comprehension of how aerosol particles impact thunderstorm clouds. Yet, much of this research has focused on employing bulk microphysics models to explain the impacts of aerosol particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) on electrical activities in thunderstorm clouds. The bulk thunderstorm models use mean sizes of particles and terminal-fall velocities. This causes calculation deviation in the electrification simulation, which in turn leads to deviations in the simulation of lightning processes. Developing this further, we established a three-dimensional high-resolution cloud–aerosol bin thunderstorm model with electrification and lightning to provide more accurate microphysics and dynamic fields for studying electrical activities. For evaluating the impacts of aerosol particles, specifically CCN, on the properties of continental thunderclouds, aerosols from both clean and polluted continental environments were selected. Cloud simulations indicate that droplets develop a narrower spectrum in polluted continental conditions, and weakened ice crystal growth increases the number of small ice crystals compared to clean conditions. Smaller droplets and ice crystals result in less effective riming and decreased graupel concentration and mass. Consequently, a significant decrease in large ice particles leads to a weakened process of charge separation under conditions of pollution. As a direct result, there is about a 43% reduction in lightning frequency and a delay of approximately 5 min in the lightning process under polluted conditions. Full article

Thunderstorms are a common natural phenomenon posing significant hazards to power systems, structures, and humans. With technological advancements, protection against lightning is gradually shifting from passive to active measures, which require the prediction of thunderstorm occurrences. Current research on lightning warning relies on various data sources, such as satellite data and atmospheric electric field data. However, these studies have placed greater emphasis on the process of warning implementation, overlooking the correlation between parameters used for lightning warning and lightning phenomena. This study relied on the ERA5 dataset and lightning location dataset from 117.5°E to 119.5°E longitude and 24.5°N to 25.5°N latitude during 2020–2021, utilizing Kriging interpolation to standardize the spatiotemporal precision of different parameters. After that, we conducted preliminary screening of the involved parameters based on the chi-squared test and utilized the Apriori algorithm to identify parameter intervals that were strongly associated with the occurrence of lightning. Subsequently, we extracted strong association rules oriented towards the occurrence of lightning and analyzed those rules with respect to lightning current amplitude, types, and ERA5 parameters. We found that thunderstorm phenomena are more likely to occur under specific ranges of temperature, humidity, and wind speed conditions, and we determined their parameter ranges. After that, we divided the target area into regions with different levels of lightning probability based on the strong association rules. By comparing the actual areas where lightning phenomena occurred with the areas at high risk of lightning based on ERA5 parameters, we validated the credibility of the obtained strong association rules. Full article

Transient Luminous Events (TLEs) are short-lived, upper-atmospheric optical phenomena associated with thunderstorms. Their rapid and random occurrence makes manual classification laborious and time-consuming. This study presents an effective approach to automating the classification of TLEs using state-of-the-art Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and a Vision Transformer (ViT). The ViT architecture and four different CNN architectures, namely, ResNet50, ResNet18, GoogLeNet, and SqueezeNet, are employed and their performance is evaluated based on their accuracy and execution time. The models are trained on a dataset that was augmented using rotation, translation, and flipping techniques to increase its size and diversity. Additionally, the images are preprocessed using bilateral filtering to enhance their quality. The results show high classification accuracy across all models, with ResNet50 achieving the highest accuracy. However, a trade-off is observed between accuracy and execution time, which should be considered based on the specific requirements of the task. This study demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of using transfer learning and pre-trained CNNs for the automated classification of TLEs. Full article

In civil aviation, severe weather conditions such as strong wind shear, crosswinds, and thunderstorms near airport runways often compel pilots to abort landings to ensure flight safety. While aborted landings due to wind shear are not common, they occur under specific environmental and situational circumstances. This research aims to accurately predict aircraft aborted landings using three advanced deep learning techniques: the conventional deep neural network (DNN), the deep and cross network (DCN), and the wide and deep network (WDN). These models are supplemented by various data augmentation methods, including the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE), KMeans-SMOTE, and Borderline-SMOTE, to correct the imbalance in pilot report data. Bayesian optimization was utilized to fine-tune the models for optimal predictive accuracy. The effectiveness of these models was assessed through metrics including sensitivity, precision, F1-score, and the Matthew Correlation Coefficient. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) algorithm was then applied to the most effective models to interpret their results and identify key factors, revealing that the intensity of wind shear, specific runways like 07R, and the vertical distance of wind shear from the runway (within 700 feet above runway level) were significant factors. The results of this research provide valuable insights to civil aviation experts, potentially revolutionizing safety protocols for managing aborted landings under adverse weather conditions, thereby improving overall airport efficiency and safety. Full article

This study aims to reveal the long-term station-based characteristics of precipitation in Istanbul, a mega city located on the continents of Europe and Asia, with complex topography and coastline along the Marmara and Black Seas. Using data from five different stations, three located in the European continent and two in the Asian continent, with measurement periods ranging from 72 to 93 years, wet and dry days have been identified, statistics on precipitation conditions during the warm and cold seasons have been generated, categorization based on precipitation intensities has been performed, and analyses have been conducted using extreme precipitation indices. At stations located in the northern part of the city, higher annual total precipitation has been observed compared to those in the south. A similar situation applies to the number of wet days. While during the cold season, the wet and dry day counts are nearly the same across all stations, this condition exhibits significant differences in favor of dry days during the warm season. Apart from dry conditions, “moderate” precipitation is the most frequently observed type across all stations. However, “extreme” events occur significantly more often (6%) during the warm season compared to the cold season (2%). Long-term anomalies in terms of annual precipitation totals have shown similarity between stations in the north and south, which has also been observed in longitudinally close stations. Despite the longer duration of the cold season and stronger temperature gradients, extreme rainfall events are more frequent during the warm season, primarily due to thunderstorm activity. While trend analyses revealed limited significant trends in precipitation intensity categories and extreme indices, the study highlights the importance of comprehensive examination of extreme rainfall events on both station-based and regional levels, shedding light on potential implications for regional climate change. Lastly, during the cold season, the inter-station correlation in terms of annual total precipitation amounts has been considerably higher compared to the warm season. Full article