Coastal Flooding & Sea-Level Rise: Calculation of Flood Risk Using Tide-Gauge Measurements

Stephen Taylor

doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0006.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 31 May 2022 / Approved: 1 June 2022 / Online: 1 June 2022 (05:58:45 CEST)

AbstractLocal estimates of coastal flood risk are required for coastal planning and development, including the location and design of sea-defences and coastal buildings, such as harbours and associated infrastructure. This paper discusses the use of three parameters associated with estimating such risks; the flood return period, the instantaneous flood probability and the flood design risk, and it describes the mathematical background for their derivation. The discussion is extended to include the effects of sea level rise and how it can be incorporated into the calculations. Flood height can vary quite rapidly with distance along the coast, being affected by coastal topology, which may magnify or diminish the tidal and surge effects. Similarly land heave influences the local effects of sea level rise and can be influenced by water extraction, tectonic movements and melting ice. Tide gauge measurements provide a local historical record from which the various parameters can be retrieved. This paper discusses the algorithms used to derive these measures from tide-gauge records. The figures have been derived for four tide gauges located on the UK east coast.

Sea Level Rise; coastal flooding; JPM; Gumbel; exceedance; extreme value statistics; flood return period; sea-defences

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Oceanography

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Coastal Flooding & Sea-Level Rise: Calculation of Flood Risk Using Tide-Gauge Measurements

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