Jiang, Q.; Shi, X. Forecasting the July Precipitation over the Middle-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with a Flexible Statistical Model. Atmosphere2023, 14, 152.
Jiang, Q.; Shi, X. Forecasting the July Precipitation over the Middle-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with a Flexible Statistical Model. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 152.
Jiang, Q.; Shi, X. Forecasting the July Precipitation over the Middle-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with a Flexible Statistical Model. Atmosphere2023, 14, 152.
Jiang, Q.; Shi, X. Forecasting the July Precipitation over the Middle-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with a Flexible Statistical Model. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 152.
Abstract
The multiple regression method is still an important tool for establishing precipitation forecast models with a lead time of one season. This study developed a flexible statistical forecast model for July precipitation over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) based on the prophase winter sea surface temperature (SST). According to the characteristics of observed samples and related theoretical knowledge, some special treatments (i.e., more flexible and better–targeted methods) were introduced in the forecast model. These special treatments include a flexible MLYR domain definition, the extraction of indicative signals from the SST field, artificial samples, and the amplification of abnormal precipitation. Rolling forecast experiments show that the linear correlation between prediction and observation is around 0.5, more than half of the abnormal precipitation years can be successfully predicted, and there is no contradictory prediction of the abnormal years. These results indicate that the flexible statistical forecast model is valuable in real-life applications. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments show that forecast skills without these special treatments are obviously decreased. This suggests that forecast models can benefit from using statistical methods in a more flexible and better-targeted way.
Keywords
statistical methods; flexible treatments; the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River; precipitation forecast
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
