Identifying Optimal Zones for Avocado Cultivation in Iberian Peninsula: A Climate Suitability Analysis

Antonio Domínguez; Abelardo García-Martín; Eduardo Moreno Cuesta; Encarnación González Algarra; Luis Lorenzo Paniagua Simon; Gonzalo Allendes Lagos

doi:10.20944/preprints202407.2166.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 25 July 2024 / Approved: 26 July 2024 / Online: 26 July 2024 (13:24:44 CEST)

In recent decades, the cultivation of avocados has expanded throughout the Iberian Peninsula, with most of the production occurring on the southern Atlantic and Mediterranean coast, as well as in the Canary Islands and the north. This expansion is due to high demand and high prices, which have made the crop very attractive. However, climatic suitability criteria have not always been followed, putting sustainability at risk. Avocados originate from tropical and subtropical areas and have very specific climatic requirements that must be met to ensure good production. This study analyzed key climatic variables, including winter cold damage, pollen viability, and flowering and fruit set temperatures. Using daily climate data from 1975 to 2022, advanced spatial analysis techniques were applied to produce suitability maps. The results indicate that the ex-pansion of the crop is possible in certain areas of southern Andalusia, but not in the rest of the peninsula. Minimum winter and March temperatures are the main limiting factors. This work provides valuable insights into the potential for sustainable agricultural intensification, the sus-tainability of agricultural decision-making, and resilience to climate change.

Geospatial analysis; optimal zones; climate resilience; mediterranean region

Biology and Life Sciences, Agricultural Science and Agronomy

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Identifying Optimal Zones for Avocado Cultivation in Iberian Peninsula: A Climate Suitability Analysis

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