Bulan 112106 261181 531550 510039

1 8 27 34 12
2 2 41 26 15
3 6 32 25 5
4 8 36 26 6
5 4 38 35 5
6 1 32 38 8
7 7 36 19 7
8 3 31 27 7
9 4 40 15 5
10 2 35 26 11
11 7 37 29 10
12 2 29 34 9
13 3 34 30 8
14 3 34 33 5
15 4 39 28 6
16 9 35 26 10
17 5 35 28 7
18 2 36 34 10
19 5 47 26 8
20 3 25 28 8
21 5 31 25 5
22 6 44 39 7
23 6 34 27 6
24 4 38 18 6
25 9 36 36 5
26 8 34 35 8
27 3 30 25 5
28 5 45 24 13
29 2 41 29 7
30 8 28 28 8
31 6 32 24 7
32 6 35 25 6
33 7 33 26 8
34 7 37 35 5
35 5 28 25 11
36 8 27 24 12
37 2 32 35 8
38 4 33 32 9
39 3 25 31 10
40 10 34 24 11
41 3 34 33 8
42 10 36 22 7
43 5 30 25 5
44 2 35 33 7
45 5 28 25 12
46 2 29 25 15
47 5 35 23 5
 48 6 33 28 6

Stok Terakhir
Kelompok
Nilai (juta) Posisi
Suku Cadang 18.71 181.23
Alat Bantu 606 14.06
Umum 284 8.71
Material Konstruksi 998 104.91
Bahan Baku 11.91 4.152.526
Total 32.5 4.461.429
 Plot Data

892140 10
5
9
4
3 8
8 7
8 6
4 5
7
4
10
4 3
3 2
5 1
5 0
8 Row 4 Row 7 Row 10 Row 14 Row 18 Row
9
10 50
12 45
11 40
4
35
4
2 30
5 25
5 20
2
15
6
8 10
10 5
5 0
6 Row 4 Row 7 Row 10 Row 14 Row 18 Row
9
5 40
4
35
7
11 30
5
25
4
9 20
5
15
11
4 10
9
5
7
5 0
8 Row 4 Row 7 Row 10 Row 14 Row 18 Row
6
5
3
4
 7

Produk Item Lead time Kode

112106 Besi Siku 50 x 50 x 50 x 600 mm 3 112106
261181 Kawat Las AWS E6013 dia. 3.2 mm 1 261181
531550 Vee Belt SPA 12.5 x 1175 La 3 531550
510039 Bearing 6210 Z NTN 2 510039
892140 Melting Crushible Porcelein, Lap : 30 cc 2 892140
 Column C

Row 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30 Row 34 Row 38 Row 42 Row 46 Row 50

Column D

Row 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30 Row 34 Row 38 Row 42 Row 46 Row 50

Column E

Row 14 Row 18 Row 22 Row 26 Row 30 Row 34 Row 38 Row 42 Row 46 Row 50
Frekuensi Transaksi / Tahun Harga Perolehan (ribu) Stok (unit)
45 52 66
52 7 235
48 20 15
39 58 16
36 26 8
 15

12.5

10

7.5
Column C Column F

2.5

0
Row 4 Row 9 Row 14 Row 20 Row 26 Row 32 Row 38 Row 44 Row 50

12

10

6
Column D Column G

0
Row 4 Row 9 Row 14 Row 19Row 24 Row 29 Row 34Row 39 Row 44 Row 49

Column E
 Column F

Row 50

Column G

Row 49
SES
Forecast Result for 112106

5/8/2009 Actual Forecast byForecast CFE

Month Data SES Error
1 8
2 2 8 -6 -6
3 6 8 -2 -8
4 8 8 0 -8
5 4 8 -4 -12
6 1 8 -7 -19
7 7 8 -1 -20
8 3 8 -5 -25
9 4 8 -4 -29
10 2 8 -6 -35
11 7 8 -1 -36
12 2 8 -6 -42
13 3 8 -5 -47
14 3 8 -5 -52
15 4 8 -4 -56
16 9 8 1 -55
17 5 8 -3 -58
18 2 8 -6 -64
19 5 8 -3 -67
20 3 8 -5 -72
21 5 8 -3 -75
22 6 8 -2 -77
23 6 8 -2 -79
24 4 8 -4 -83
25 9 8 1 -82
26 8 8 0 -82
27 3 8 -5 -87
28 5 8 -3 -90
29 2 8 -6 -96
30 8 8 0 -96
31 6 8 -2 -98
32 6 8 -2 -100
33 7 8 -1 -101
34 7 8 -1 -102
35 5 8 -3 -105
36 8 8 0 -105
37 2 8 -6 -111
38 4 8 -4 -115
39 3 8 -5 -120
40 10 8 2 -118
41 3 8 -5 -123
42 10 8 2 -121
 43 5 8 -3 -124
44 2 8 -6 -130
45 5 8 -3 -133
46 2 8 -6 -139
47 5 8 -3 -142
48 6 8 -2 -144
49 8
50 8
51 8
52 8
53 8
54 8
55 8
56 8
57 8
58 8
59 8
60 8

CFE -144
MAD 3.32
MSE 14.94
MAPE 118.43
Trk.Signal -43.38
R-square
Alpha=0
F(0)=8
 DES
Forecast Result for 112106

MAD MSE MAPE (%) Tracking R-square 5/8/2009

Signal Month
1
6 36 300 -1 2
4 20 166.67 -2 3
2.67 13.33 111.11 -3 4
3 14 108.33 -4 5
3.8 21 226.67 -5 6
3.33 17.67 191.27 -6 7
3.57 18.71 187.76 -7 8
3.63 18.38 176.79 -8 9
3.89 20.33 190.48 -9 10
3.6 18.4 172.86 -10 11
3.82 20 184.42 -11 12
3.92 20.42 182.94 -12 13
4 20.77 181.69 -13 14
4 20.43 175.85 -14 15
3.8 19.13 164.87 -14.47 16
3.75 18.5 158.31 -15.47 17
3.88 19.53 166.65 -16.48 18
3.83 18.94 160.72 -17.48 19
3.89 19.26 161.04 -18.49 20
3.85 18.75 155.98 -19.48 21
3.76 18.05 150.14 -20.47 22
3.68 17.41 144.83 -21.46 23
3.7 17.35 142.88 -22.46 24
3.58 16.67 137.39 -22.88 25
3.44 16 131.9 -23.84 26
3.5 16.35 133.24 -24.86 27
3.48 16.07 130.52 -25.85 28
3.57 16.79 136.58 -26.88 29
3.45 16.21 131.87 -27.84 30
3.4 15.8 128.58 -28.82 31
3.35 15.42 125.51 -29.81 32
3.28 14.97 122.03 -30.78 33
3.21 14.55 118.77 -31.75 34
3.21 14.38 117.04 -32.75 35
3.11 13.97 113.7 -33.72 36
3.19 14.58 118.87 -34.75 37
3.22 14.62 118.36 -35.76 38
3.26 14.89 119.63 -36.77 39
3.23 14.62 117.08 -36.52 40
3.28 14.88 118.32 -37.56 41
3.24 14.61 115.92 -37.3 42
3.24 14.48 114.59 -38.29 43
3.3 14.98 118.9 -39.37 44
3.3 14.84 117.56 -40.36 45
3.36 15.31 121.62 -41.42 46
3.35 15.17 120.28 -42.42 47
3.32 14.94 118.43 -43.38 48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

CFE
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Trk.Signal
R-square
recast Result for 112106

Actual Forecast byForecast CFE MAD MSE MAPE (%)

Data DES Error
8
2 8 -6 -6 6 36 300
6 8 -2 -8 4 20 166.67
8 8 0 -8 2.67 13.33 111.11
4 8 -4 -12 3 14 108.33
1 8 -7 -19 3.8 21 226.67
7 8 -1 -20 3.33 17.67 191.27
3 8 -5 -25 3.57 18.71 187.76
4 8 -4 -29 3.63 18.38 176.79
2 8 -6 -35 3.89 20.33 190.48
7 8 -1 -36 3.6 18.4 172.86
2 8 -6 -42 3.82 20 184.42
3 8 -5 -47 3.92 20.42 182.94
3 8 -5 -52 4 20.77 181.69
4 8 -4 -56 4 20.43 175.85
9 8 1 -55 3.8 19.13 164.87
5 8 -3 -58 3.75 18.5 158.31
2 8 -6 -64 3.88 19.53 166.65
5 8 -3 -67 3.83 18.94 160.72
3 8 -5 -72 3.89 19.26 161.04
5 8 -3 -75 3.85 18.75 155.98
6 8 -2 -77 3.76 18.05 150.14
6 8 -2 -79 3.68 17.41 144.83
4 8 -4 -83 3.7 17.35 142.88
9 8 1 -82 3.58 16.67 137.39
8 8 0 -82 3.44 16 131.9
3 8 -5 -87 3.5 16.35 133.24
5 8 -3 -90 3.48 16.07 130.52
2 8 -6 -96 3.57 16.79 136.58
8 8 0 -96 3.45 16.21 131.87
6 8 -2 -98 3.4 15.8 128.58
6 8 -2 -100 3.35 15.42 125.51
7 8 -1 -101 3.28 14.97 122.03
7 8 -1 -102 3.21 14.55 118.77
5 8 -3 -105 3.21 14.38 117.04
8 8 0 -105 3.11 13.97 113.7
2 8 -6 -111 3.19 14.58 118.87
4 8 -4 -115 3.22 14.62 118.36
3 8 -5 -120 3.26 14.89 119.63
10 8 2 -118 3.23 14.62 117.08
3 8 -5 -123 3.28 14.88 118.32
10 8 2 -121 3.24 14.61 115.92
5 8 -3 -124 3.24 14.48 114.59
2 8 -6 -130 3.3 14.98 118.9
5 8 -3 -133 3.3 14.84 117.56
2 8 -6 -139 3.36 15.31 121.62
5 8 -3 -142 3.35 15.17 120.28
6 8 -2 -144 3.32 14.94 118.43
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8

-144
3.32
14.94
118.43
-43.38

Alpha=0
F(0)=8
F'(0)=8
 LR (Terbaik)
Forecast Result for 112106

Tracking R-square 5/8/2009 Actual Forecast by Forecast

Signal Month Data LR Error
1 8 4.59 3.41
-1 2 2 4.61 -2.61
-2 3 6 4.62 1.38
-3 4 8 4.64 3.36
-4 5 4 4.66 -0.66
-5 6 1 4.68 -3.68
-6 7 7 4.69 2.31
-7 8 3 4.71 -1.71
-8 9 4 4.73 -0.73
-9 10 2 4.75 -2.75
-10 11 7 4.76 2.24
-11 12 2 4.78 -2.78
-12 13 3 4.8 -1.8
-13 14 3 4.82 -1.82
-14 15 4 4.83 -0.83
-14.47 16 9 4.85 4.15
-15.47 17 5 4.87 0.13
-16.48 18 2 4.89 -2.89
-17.48 19 5 4.9 9.61E-02
-18.49 20 3 4.92 -1.92
-19.48 21 5 4.94 6.12E-02
-20.47 22 6 4.96 1.04
-21.46 23 6 4.97 1.03
-22.46 24 4 4.99 -0.99
-22.88 25 9 5.01 3.99
-23.84 26 8 5.03 2.97
-24.86 27 3 5.04 -2.04
-25.85 28 5 5.06 -0.06
-26.88 29 2 5.08 -3.08
-27.84 30 8 5.1 2.9
-28.82 31 6 5.11 0.89
-29.81 32 6 5.13 0.87
-30.78 33 7 5.15 1.85
-31.75 34 7 5.17 1.83
-32.75 35 5 5.18 -0.18
-33.72 36 8 5.2 2.8
-34.75 37 2 5.22 -3.22
-35.76 38 4 5.24 -1.24
-36.77 39 3 5.25 -2.25
-36.52 40 10 5.27 4.73
-37.56 41 3 5.29 -2.29
-37.3 42 10 5.31 4.69
-38.29 43 5 5.32 -0.32
-39.37 44 2 5.34 -3.34
-40.36 45 5 5.36 -0.36
-41.42 46 2 5.38 -3.38
-42.42 47 5 5.39 -0.39
-43.38 48 6 5.41 0.59
49 5.428 6
50 5.446 6
51 5.463 6
52 5.481 6
53 5.498 6
54 5.516 6
55 5.533 6
56 5.551 6
57 5.568 6
58 5.585 6
59 5.603 6
60 5.620 6
72
CFE 9.06E-06
MAD 1.97
MSE 5.57
MAPE 57.62
Trk.Signal 4.60E-06
R-square 1.04E-02
Y-intercept=4.5718
Slope=0.0175
 Verifikasi Fungsi P
No
1
CFE MAD MSE MAPE (%) Tracking R-square 2
Signal 3
3.41 3.41 11.63 42.63 1 4
0.8 3.01 9.21 86.49 0.27 1.80E-02 5
2.18 2.46 6.77 65.3 0.88 8.49E-02 6
5.54 2.69 7.9 59.47 2.06 0.32 7
4.88 2.28 6.41 50.87 2.14 0.18 8
1.2 2.51 7.59 103.67 0.48 5.49E-03 9
3.51 2.48 7.27 93.57 1.41 3.62E-02 10
1.8 2.39 6.72 89 0.75 7.87E-03 11
1.07 2.2 6.04 81.14 0.48 2.71E-03 12
-1.68 2.26 6.19 86.76 -0.74 5.08E-03 Tot
0.56 2.26 6.08 81.77 0.25 9.33E-04
-2.22 2.3 6.22 86.55 -0.97 6.25E-03
-4.02 2.26 5.99 84.5 -1.78 1.73E-02
-5.84 2.23 5.8 82.79 -2.62 3.26E-02
-6.67 2.14 5.46 78.66 -3.12 3.97E-02
-2.53 2.26 6.19 76.63 -1.12 5.13E-03
-2.39 2.14 5.83 72.28 -1.12 4.71E-03
-5.28 2.18 5.97 76.28 -2.42 1.63E-02
-5.19 2.07 5.65 72.36 -2.51 1.52E-02
-7.11 2.06 5.56 71.95 -3.45 2.55E-02
-7.05 1.97 5.29 68.58 -3.58 0.02
-6 1.92 5.1 66.25 -3.12 1.74E-02
-4.98 1.89 4.92 64.12 -2.64 1.24E-02
-5.97 1.85 4.76 62.48 -3.23 1.64E-02
-1.98 1.93 5.21 61.75 -1.02 4.22E-03
1 1.97 5.35 60.81 0.51 3.43E-03
-1.05 1.98 5.3 61.08 -0.53 0
-1.11 1.91 5.11 58.94 -0.58 4.16E-03
-4.19 1.95 5.26 62.22 -2.15 8.04E-03
-1.28 1.98 5.37 61.35 -0.65 4.55E-03
-0.39 1.94 5.22 59.85 -0.2 4.64E-03
0.47 1.91 5.08 58.43 0.25 5.08E-03
2.33 1.91 5.03 57.46 1.22 6.34E-03
4.16 1.91 4.98 56.54 2.18 8.67E-03
3.98 1.86 4.84 55.03 2.14 8.86E-03
6.78 1.88 4.92 54.48 3.6 1.35E-02
3.56 1.92 5.07 57.35 1.85 8.49E-03
2.32 1.9 4.98 56.66 1.22 7.97E-03
6.73E-02 1.91 4.98 57.13 3.52E-02 7.67E-03
4.8 1.98 5.42 56.88 2.42 9.93E-03
2.51 1.99 5.41 57.36 1.26 8.44E-03
7.2 2.05 5.81 57.11 3.51 1.25E-02
 6.88 2.01 5.67 55.93 3.42 1.25E-02
3.54 2.04 5.8 58.46 1.73 9.43E-03
3.18 2.01 5.67 57.32 1.59 9.78E-03
-0.2 2.04 5.8 59.74 -9.63E-02 9.21E-03
-0.59 2 5.68 58.64 -0.29 9.85E-03
9.06E-06 1.97 5.57 57.62 4.60E-06 1.04E-02
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan
Xt Ft Ft-Xt MR UCL LCL A+
8 4.589 -3.411 - 10.161 -10.16 6.77
2 4.607 2.607 6.017 10.161 -10.16 6.77
6 4.624 -1.376 3.983 10.161 -10.16 6.77
8 4.642 -3.358 1.983 10.161 -10.16 6.77
4 4.659 0.659 4.017 10.161 -10.16 6.77
1 4.677 3.677 3.017 10.161 -10.16 6.77
7 4.694 -2.306 5.983 10.161 -10.16 6.77
3 4.712 1.712 4.017 10.161 -10.16 6.77
4 4.729 0.729 0.983 10.161 -10.16 6.77
2 4.747 2.747 2.017 10.161 -10.16 6.77
7 4.764 -2.236 4.983 10.161 -10.16 6.77
2 4.782 2.782 5.017 10.161 -10.16 6.77
Total MR 42.017

MR 3.820
UCL 10.161
LCL -10.161
Daerah A + 6.774
Daerah A - -6.774
Daerah B + 3.387
Daerah B - -3.387
 12.500
A- B+ B- 10.000
-6.77 3.39 -3.39 7.500
-6.77 3.39 -3.39
5.000
-6.77 3.39 -3.39
2.500
-6.77 3.39 -3.39
-6.77 3.39 -3.39 0.000
-6.77 3.39 -3.39 -2.500
-6.77 3.39 -3.39 -5.000
-6.77 3.39 -3.39 -7.500
-6.77 3.39 -3.39 -10.000
-6.77 3.39 -3.39 -12.500
-6.77 3.39 -3.39 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row
-6.77 3.39 -3.39 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 Column AM
Column AO
Column AP
Column AQ
Column AR
Column AS
Column AT

ow Row Row Row Row Row Row Row

0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
SES
Forecast Result for 261181

5/8/2009 Actual Forecast by Forecast CFE MAD

Month Data SES Error
1 27
2 41 27 14 14 14
3 32 27 5 19 9.5
4 36 27 9 28 9.33
5 38 27 11 39 9.75
6 32 27 5 44 8.8
7 36 27 9 53 8.83
8 31 27 4 57 8.14
9 40 27 13 70 8.75
10 35 27 8 78 8.67
11 37 27 10 88 8.8
12 29 27 2 90 8.18
13 34 27 7 97 8.08
14 34 27 7 104 8
15 39 27 12 116 8.29
16 35 27 8 124 8.27
17 35 27 8 132 8.25
18 36 27 9 141 8.29
19 47 27 20 161 8.94
20 25 27 -2 159 8.58
21 31 27 4 163 8.35
22 44 27 17 180 8.76
23 34 27 7 187 8.68
24 38 27 11 198 8.78
25 36 27 9 207 8.79
26 34 27 7 214 8.72
27 30 27 3 217 8.5
28 45 27 18 235 8.85
29 41 27 14 249 9.04
30 28 27 1 250 8.76
31 32 27 5 255 8.63
32 35 27 8 263 8.61
33 33 27 6 269 8.53
34 37 27 10 279 8.58
35 38 27 11 290 8.65
36 27 27 0 290 8.4
37 32 27 5 295 8.31
38 33 27 6 301 8.24
39 25 27 -2 299 8.08
40 34 27 7 306 8.05
41 34 27 7 313 8.03
42 36 27 9 322 8.05
43 30 27 3 325 7.93
44 35 27 8 333 7.93
 45 28 27 1 334 7.77
46 29 27 2 336 7.64
47 35 27 8 344 7.65
48 33 27 6 350 7.62
49 27
50 27
51 27
52 27
53 27
54 27
55 27
56 27
57 27
58 27
59 27
60 27

CFE 350
MAD 7.62
MSE 77.45
MAPE 20.83
Trk.Signal 45.95
R-square
Alpha=0
F(0)=27
 DES
Forecast Result for 261181

MSE MAPE (%) Tracking R-square 5/8/2009 Actual

Signal Month Data
1 27
196 34.15 1 2 41
110.5 24.89 2 3 32
100.67 24.92 3 4 36
105.75 25.93 4 5 38
89.6 23.87 5 6 32
88.17 24.06 6 7 36
77.86 22.46 7 8 31
89.25 23.72 8 9 40
86.44 23.62 9 10 35
87.8 23.96 10 11 37
80.18 22.41 11 12 29
77.58 22.26 12 13 34
75.38 22.13 13 14 34
80.29 22.75 14 15 39
79.2 22.76 15 16 35
78.25 22.76 16 17 35
78.41 22.89 17 18 36
96.28 23.99 18 19 47
91.42 23.14 18.53 20 25
87.65 22.63 19.52 21 31
97.24 23.39 20.54 22 44
95.05 23.27 21.54 23 34
96.17 23.51 22.54 24 38
95.54 23.58 23.55 25 36
93.68 23.46 24.54 26 34
90.42 22.94 25.53 27 30
99.07 23.57 26.55 28 45
102.54 23.95 27.56 29 41
99.03 23.25 28.54 30 28
96.57 22.99 29.54 31 32
95.52 22.99 30.54 32 35
93.66 22.84 31.53 33 33
93.85 22.96 32.53 34 37
94.65 23.14 33.54 35 38
91.94 22.48 34.52 36 27
90.08 22.29 35.52 37 32
88.62 22.18 36.51 38 33
86.39 21.8 37.01 39 25
85.44 21.77 38.01 40 34
84.53 21.74 39 41 34
84.44 21.82 40.01 42 36
82.64 21.54 40.99 43 30
82.21 21.57 41.99 44 35
80.36 21.16 42.97 45 28
78.67 20.85 43.95 46 29
78.35 20.89 44.95 47 35
77.45 20.83 45.95 48 33
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

CFE
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Trk.Signal
R-square
ult for 261181

Forecast byForecast CFE MAD MSE MAPE (%) Tracking

DES Error Signal

27 14 14 14 196 34.15 1
27 5 19 9.5 110.5 24.89 2
27 9 28 9.33 100.67 24.92 3
27 11 39 9.75 105.75 25.93 4
27 5 44 8.8 89.6 23.87 5
27 9 53 8.83 88.17 24.06 6
27 4 57 8.14 77.86 22.46 7
27 13 70 8.75 89.25 23.72 8
27 8 78 8.67 86.44 23.62 9
27 10 88 8.8 87.8 23.96 10
27 2 90 8.18 80.18 22.41 11
27 7 97 8.08 77.58 22.26 12
27 7 104 8 75.38 22.13 13
27 12 116 8.29 80.29 22.75 14
27 8 124 8.27 79.2 22.76 15
27 8 132 8.25 78.25 22.76 16
27 9 141 8.29 78.41 22.89 17
27 20 161 8.94 96.28 23.99 18
27 -2 159 8.58 91.42 23.14 18.53
27 4 163 8.35 87.65 22.63 19.52
27 17 180 8.76 97.24 23.39 20.54
27 7 187 8.68 95.05 23.27 21.54
27 11 198 8.78 96.17 23.51 22.54
27 9 207 8.79 95.54 23.58 23.55
27 7 214 8.72 93.68 23.46 24.54
27 3 217 8.5 90.42 22.94 25.53
27 18 235 8.85 99.07 23.57 26.55
27 14 249 9.04 102.54 23.95 27.56
27 1 250 8.76 99.03 23.25 28.54
27 5 255 8.63 96.57 22.99 29.54
27 8 263 8.61 95.52 22.99 30.54
27 6 269 8.53 93.66 22.84 31.53
27 10 279 8.58 93.85 22.96 32.53
27 11 290 8.65 94.65 23.14 33.54
27 0 290 8.4 91.94 22.48 34.52
27 5 295 8.31 90.08 22.29 35.52
27 6 301 8.24 88.62 22.18 36.51
27 -2 299 8.08 86.39 21.8 37.01
27 7 306 8.05 85.44 21.77 38.01
27 7 313 8.03 84.53 21.74 39
27 9 322 8.05 84.44 21.82 40.01
27 3 325 7.93 82.64 21.54 40.99
27 8 333 7.93 82.21 21.57 41.99
 27 1 334 7.77 80.36 21.16 42.97
27 2 336 7.64 78.67 20.85 43.95
27 8 344 7.65 78.35 20.89 44.95
27 6 350 7.62 77.45 20.83 45.95
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27

350
7.62
77.45
20.83
45.95

Alpha=0
F(0)=27
F'(0)=27
 LR
Forecast Result for 261181

R-square 5/8/2009 Actual Forecast byForecast CFE

Month Data LR Error
1 27 35.93 -8.93 -8.93
2 41 35.86 5.14 -3.79
3 32 35.79 -3.79 -7.59
4 36 35.72 0.28 -7.31
5 38 35.65 2.35 -4.96
6 32 35.58 -3.58 -8.54
7 36 35.51 0.49 -8.06
8 31 35.44 -4.44 -12.5
9 40 35.37 4.63 -7.87
10 35 35.3 -0.3 -8.18
11 37 35.23 1.77 -6.41
12 29 35.16 -6.16 -12.58
13 34 35.09 -1.09 -13.67
14 34 35.02 -1.02 -14.7
15 39 34.95 4.05 -10.65
16 35 34.88 0.12 -10.54
17 35 34.82 0.18 -10.35
18 36 34.75 1.25 -9.1
19 47 34.68 12.32 3.23
20 25 34.61 -9.61 -6.38
21 31 34.54 -3.54 -9.91
22 44 34.47 9.53 -0.38
23 34 34.4 -0.4 -0.78
24 38 34.33 3.67 2.9
25 36 34.26 1.74 4.64
26 34 34.19 -0.19 4.45
27 30 34.12 -4.12 0.34
28 45 34.05 10.95 11.29
29 41 33.98 7.02 18.31
30 28 33.91 -5.91 12.4
31 32 33.84 -1.84 10.57
32 35 33.77 1.23 11.8
33 33 33.7 -0.7 11.1
34 37 33.63 3.37 14.47
35 38 33.56 4.44 18.91
36 27 33.49 -6.49 12.42
37 32 33.42 -1.42 11
38 33 33.35 -0.35 10.65
39 25 33.28 -8.28 2.38
40 34 33.21 0.79 3.17
41 34 33.14 0.86 4.03
42 36 33.07 2.93 6.96
43 30 33 -3 3.95
44 35 32.93 2.07 6.02
 45 28 32.86 -4.86 1.16
46 29 32.79 -3.79 -2.63
47 35 32.72 2.28 -0.35
48 33 32.65 0.35 -2.67E-05
49 32.58 33
50 32.51 33
51 32.44 33
52 32.37 33
53 32.3 33
54 32.23 33
55 32.16 33
56 32.09 33
57 32.02 33
58 31.95 32
59 31.88 32
60 31.81 32
393
CFE -2.67E-05
MAD 3.49
MSE 21.73
MAPE 10.47
Trk.Signal -7.65E-06
R-square 4.13E-02
Y-intercept=36.0018
Slope=-0.0698
 Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan
MAD MSE MAPE (%) Tracking R-square No
Signal 1
8.93 79.78 33.08 -1 2
7.03 53.09 22.81 -0.54 7.35E-02 3
5.95 40.19 19.15 -1.27 0.19 4
4.53 30.16 14.56 -1.61 0.13 5
4.1 25.23 12.88 -1.21 0.04 6
4.01 23.16 12.6 -2.13 9.78E-02 7
3.51 19.89 10.99 -2.3 7.37E-02 8
3.63 19.87 11.41 -3.45 0.14 9
3.74 20.04 11.43 -2.11 4.24E-02 10
3.39 18.05 10.37 -2.41 4.18E-02 11
3.25 16.69 9.86 -1.98 2.46E-02 12
3.49 18.46 10.81 -3.61 6.70E-02 Total MR
3.3 17.14 10.23 -4.14 0.07
3.14 15.99 9.71 -4.68 7.97E-02
3.2 16.01 9.76 -3.33 3.93E-02
3.01 15.01 9.17 -3.5 3.79E-02
2.84 14.13 8.66 -3.64 3.65E-02
2.75 13.43 8.37 -3.3 3.04E-02
3.26 20.72 9.31 0.99 9.02E-03
3.58 24.3 10.77 -1.78 0.01
3.57 23.74 10.8 -2.77 1.73E-02
3.84 26.79 11.29 -9.87E-02 7.59E-03
3.69 25.63 10.85 -0.21 8.69E-03
3.69 25.13 10.8 0.78 1.03E-02
3.62 24.24 10.56 1.28 1.24E-02
3.48 23.31 10.18 1.28 1.36E-02
3.51 23.08 10.31 9.60E-02 1.32E-02
3.77 26.54 10.81 2.99 1.91E-02
3.89 27.32 11.03 4.71 2.93E-02
3.95 27.57 11.36 3.14 2.04E-02
3.88 26.79 11.18 2.72 1.96E-02
3.8 26 10.94 3.1 2.21E-02
3.71 25.23 10.68 2.99 2.28E-02
3.7 24.82 10.63 3.91 2.74E-02
3.72 24.68 10.66 5.09 3.39E-02
3.8 25.16 11.03 3.27 2.63E-02
3.73 24.54 10.85 2.95 0.03
3.64 23.89 10.6 2.93 2.82E-02
3.76 25.04 11.17 0.63 2.44E-02
3.69 24.43 10.95 0.86 0.03
3.62 23.85 10.75 1.11 2.86E-02
3.6 23.49 10.68 1.93 3.14E-02
3.59 23.15 10.67 1.1 3.22E-02
3.55 22.72 10.56 1.7 3.49E-02
3.58 22.74 10.71 0.32 3.50E-02
3.59 22.56 10.76 -0.73 3.65E-02
3.56 22.19 10.67 -9.80E-02 3.88E-02
3.49 21.73 10.47 -7.65E-06 4.13E-02
erifikasi Fungsi Peramalan
Xt Ft Ft-Xt MR UCL LCL A+
27 35.932 8.932 - 16.461 -16.46 10.97
41 35.862 -5.138 14.070 16.461 -16.46 10.97
32 35.792 3.792 8.930 16.461 -16.46 10.97
36 35.723 -0.277 4.070 16.461 -16.46 10.97
38 35.653 -2.347 2.070 16.461 -16.46 10.97
32 35.583 3.583 5.930 16.461 -16.46 10.97
36 35.513 -0.487 4.070 16.461 -16.46 10.97
31 35.443 4.443 4.930 16.461 -16.46 10.97
40 35.374 -4.626 9.070 16.461 -16.46 10.97
35 35.304 0.304 4.930 16.461 -16.46 10.97
37 35.234 -1.766 2.070 16.461 -16.46 10.97
29 35.164 6.164 7.930 16.461 -16.46 10.97
Total MR 68.070

MR 6.188
UCL 16.461
LCL -16.461
Daerah A + 10.974
Daerah A - -10.974
Daerah B + 5.487
Daerah B - -5.487
 A- B+ B- 20.000
-10.97 5.49 -5.49 15.000
-10.97 5.49 -5.49
10.000
-10.97 5.49 -5.49
-10.97 5.49 -5.49 5.000
-10.97 5.49 -5.49 0.000
-10.97 5.49 -5.49 -5.000
-10.97 5.49 -5.49
-10.000
-10.97 5.49 -5.49
-10.97 5.49 -5.49 -15.000
-10.97 5.49 -5.49 -20.000
-10.97 5.49 -5.49 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Ro
-10.97 5.49 -5.49 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
 Column AL
Column AN
Column AO
Column AP
Column AQ
Column AR
Column AS

Row Row Row Row Row Row Row

11 12 13 14 15 16 17
SES
Forecast Result for 531550

5/15/2009 Actual Forecast byForecast CFE

Month Data SES Error
1 34
2 26 34 -8 -8
3 25 34 -9 -17
4 26 34 -8 -25
5 35 34 1 -24
6 38 34 4 -20
7 19 34 -15 -35
8 27 34 -7 -42
9 15 34 -19 -61
10 26 34 -8 -69
11 29 34 -5 -74
12 34 34 0 -74
13 30 34 -4 -78
14 33 34 -1 -79
15 28 34 -6 -85
16 26 34 -8 -93
17 28 34 -6 -99
18 34 34 0 -99
19 26 34 -8 -107
20 28 34 -6 -113
21 25 34 -9 -122
22 39 34 5 -117
23 27 34 -7 -124
24 18 34 -16 -140
25 36 34 2 -138
26 35 34 1 -137
27 25 34 -9 -146
28 24 34 -10 -156
29 29 34 -5 -161
30 28 34 -6 -167
31 24 34 -10 -177
32 25 34 -9 -186
33 26 34 -8 -194
34 35 34 1 -193
35 25 34 -9 -202
36 24 34 -10 -212
37 35 34 1 -211
38 32 34 -2 -213
39 31 34 -3 -216
40 24 34 -10 -226
41 33 34 -1 -227
42 22 34 -12 -239
43 25 34 -9 -248
 44 33 34 -1 -249
45 25 34 -9 -258
46 25 34 -9 -267
47 23 34 -11 -278
48 28 34 -6 -284
49 34
50 34
51 34
52 34
53 34
54 34
55 34
56 34
57 34
58 34
59 34
60 34

CFE -284
MAD 6.68
MSE 62.72
MAPE 27.84
Trk.Signal -42.51
R-square
Alpha=0
F(0)=34
 DES
Forecast Result for 531550

MAD MSE MAPE (%) Tracking R-square 5/15/2009

Signal Month
1
8 64 30.77 -1 2
8.5 72.5 33.38 -2 3
8.33 69.67 32.51 -3 4
6.5 52.5 25.1 -3.69 5
6 45.2 22.18 -3.33 0.55 6
7.5 75.17 31.64 -4.67 0.83 7
7.43 71.43 30.83 -5.65 8
8.88 107.63 42.81 -6.87 9
8.78 102.78 41.47 -7.86 10
8.4 95 39.05 -8.81 11
7.64 86.36 35.5 -9.69 12
7.33 80.5 33.65 -10.64 13
6.85 74.38 31.3 -11.54 0.99 14
6.79 71.64 30.59 -12.53 15
6.87 71.13 30.6 -13.54 16
6.81 68.94 30.03 -14.53 17
6.41 64.88 28.26 -15.44 18
6.5 64.83 28.4 -16.46 19
6.47 63.32 28.03 -17.46 20
6.6 64.2 28.43 -18.48 21
6.52 62.33 27.69 -17.93 0.99 22
6.55 61.73 27.61 -18.94 23
6.96 70.17 30.27 -20.13 24
6.75 67.42 29.24 -20.44 0.96 25
6.52 64.76 28.19 -21.01 0.86 26
6.62 65.38 28.49 -22.07 0.93 27
6.74 66.67 28.98 -23.14 28
6.68 65.18 28.56 -24.11 29
6.66 64.17 28.31 -25.09 30
6.77 65.37 28.76 -26.16 31
6.84 65.87 28.99 -27.2 32
6.88 65.81 29.05 -28.22 33
6.7 63.85 28.25 -28.82 34
6.76 64.35 28.48 -29.86 35
6.86 65.37 28.86 -30.92 36
6.69 63.58 28.14 -31.52 37
6.57 61.97 27.54 -32.43 38
6.47 60.58 27.07 -33.37 39
6.56 61.59 27.45 -34.43 40
6.43 60.08 26.84 -35.33 41
6.56 62.12 27.51 -36.43 42
6.62 62.57 27.72 -37.47 43
6.49 61.14 27.14 -38.38 44
6.55 61.59 27.34 -39.42 45
6.6 62.02 27.53 -40.45 46
6.7 63.3 27.98 -41.52 47
6.68 62.72 27.84 -42.51 48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

CFE
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Trk.Signal
R-square
cast Result for 531550

Actual Forecast byForecast CFE MAD MSE MAPE (%)

Data DES Error
34
26 34 -8 -8 8 64 30.77
25 34 -9 -17 8.5 72.5 33.38
26 34 -8 -25 8.33 69.67 32.51
35 34 1 -24 6.5 52.5 25.1
38 34 4 -20 6 45.2 22.18
19 34 -15 -35 7.5 75.17 31.64
27 34 -7 -42 7.43 71.43 30.83
15 34 -19 -61 8.88 107.63 42.81
26 34 -8 -69 8.78 102.78 41.47
29 34 -5 -74 8.4 95 39.05
34 34 0 -74 7.64 86.36 35.5
30 34 -4 -78 7.33 80.5 33.65
33 34 -1 -79 6.85 74.38 31.3
28 34 -6 -85 6.79 71.64 30.59
26 34 -8 -93 6.87 71.13 30.6
28 34 -6 -99 6.81 68.94 30.03
34 34 0 -99 6.41 64.88 28.26
26 34 -8 -107 6.5 64.83 28.4
28 34 -6 -113 6.47 63.32 28.03
25 34 -9 -122 6.6 64.2 28.43
39 34 5 -117 6.52 62.33 27.69
27 34 -7 -124 6.55 61.73 27.61
18 34 -16 -140 6.96 70.17 30.27
36 34 2 -138 6.75 67.42 29.24
35 34 1 -137 6.52 64.76 28.19
25 34 -9 -146 6.62 65.38 28.49
24 34 -10 -156 6.74 66.67 28.98
29 34 -5 -161 6.68 65.18 28.56
28 34 -6 -167 6.66 64.17 28.31
24 34 -10 -177 6.77 65.37 28.76
25 34 -9 -186 6.84 65.87 28.99
26 34 -8 -194 6.88 65.81 29.05
35 34 1 -193 6.7 63.85 28.25
25 34 -9 -202 6.76 64.35 28.48
24 34 -10 -212 6.86 65.37 28.86
35 34 1 -211 6.69 63.58 28.14
32 34 -2 -213 6.57 61.97 27.54
31 34 -3 -216 6.47 60.58 27.07
24 34 -10 -226 6.56 61.59 27.45
33 34 -1 -227 6.43 60.08 26.84
22 34 -12 -239 6.56 62.12 27.51
25 34 -9 -248 6.62 62.57 27.72
33 34 -1 -249 6.49 61.14 27.14
25 34 -9 -258 6.55 61.59 27.34
25 34 -9 -267 6.6 62.02 27.53
23 34 -11 -278 6.7 63.3 27.98
28 34 -6 -284 6.68 62.72 27.84
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34

-284
6.68
62.72
27.84
-42.51

Alpha=0
F(0)=34
F'(0)=34
 LR
Forecast Result for 531550

Tracking R-square 5/15/2009 Actual Forecast byForecast

Signal Month Data LR Error
1 34 28.77 5.23
-1 2 26 28.74 -2.74
-2 3 25 28.71 -3.71
-3 4 26 28.68 -2.68
-3.69 5 35 28.65 6.35
-3.33 0.55 6 38 28.62 9.38
-4.67 0.83 7 19 28.59 -9.59
-5.65 8 27 28.56 -1.56
-6.87 9 15 28.53 -13.53
-7.86 10 26 28.51 -2.51
-8.81 11 29 28.48 0.52
-9.69 12 34 28.45 5.55
-10.64 13 30 28.42 1.58
-11.54 0.99 14 33 28.39 4.61
-12.53 15 28 28.36 -0.36
-13.54 16 26 28.33 -2.33
-14.53 17 28 28.3 -0.3
-15.44 18 34 28.27 5.73
-16.46 19 26 28.24 -2.24
-17.46 20 28 28.21 -0.21
-18.48 21 25 28.19 -3.19
-17.93 0.99 22 39 28.16 10.84
-18.94 23 27 28.13 -1.13
-20.13 24 18 28.1 -10.1
-20.44 0.96 25 36 28.07 7.93
-21.01 0.86 26 35 28.04 6.96
-22.07 0.93 27 25 28.01 -3.01
-23.14 28 24 27.98 -3.98
-24.11 29 29 27.95 1.05
-25.09 30 28 27.92 7.67E-02
-26.16 31 24 27.89 -3.89
-27.2 32 25 27.87 -2.87
-28.22 33 26 27.84 -1.84
-28.82 34 35 27.81 7.19
-29.86 35 25 27.78 -2.78
-30.92 36 24 27.75 -3.75
-31.52 37 35 27.72 7.28
-32.43 38 32 27.69 4.31
-33.37 39 31 27.66 3.34
-34.43 40 24 27.63 -3.63
-35.33 41 33 27.6 5.4
-36.43 42 22 27.57 -5.57
-37.47 43 25 27.55 -2.55
-38.38 44 33 27.52 5.48
-39.42 45 25 27.49 -2.49
-40.45 46 25 27.46 -2.46
-41.52 47 23 27.43 -4.43
-42.51 48 28 27.4 0.6
49 27.37 28
50 27.34 28
51 27.31 28
52 27.28 28
53 27.25 28
54 27.23 28
55 27.2 28
56 27.17 28
57 27.14 28
58 27.11 28
59 27.08 28
60 27.05 28
308
CFE -5.72E-05
MAD 4.14
MSE 26.25
MAPE 15.67
Trk.Signal -1.38E-05
R-square 6.15E-03
Y-intercept=28.7961
Slope=-0.0291
CFE MAD MSE MAPE (%) Tracking R-square
Signal
5.23 5.23 27.38 15.39 1
2.5 3.99 17.44 12.96 0.63 9.73E-02
-1.21 3.89 16.21 13.59 -0.31 0.01
-3.89 3.59 13.95 12.77 -1.08 7.19E-02
2.46 4.14 19.23 13.84 0.59 1.28E-02
11.83 5.01 30.68 15.65 2.36 0.15
2.24 5.67 39.44 20.62 0.4 2.69E-03
0.68 5.16 34.82 18.77 0.13 3.33E-04
-12.86 6.09 51.3 26.71 -2.11 4.11E-02
-15.36 5.73 46.8 25 -2.68 5.27E-02
-14.84 5.26 42.57 22.89 -2.82 0.04
-9.28 5.28 41.59 22.35 -1.76 1.48E-02
-7.7 5 38.59 21.03 -1.54 9.47E-03
-3.09 4.97 37.35 20.53 -0.62 1.68E-03
-3.45 4.66 34.87 19.25 -0.74 1.98E-03
-5.78 4.52 33.03 18.6 -1.28 4.51E-03
-6.08 4.27 31.09 17.57 -1.43 4.79E-03
-0.36 4.35 31.19 17.53 -8.16E-02 7.47E-04
-2.6 4.24 29.81 17.06 -0.61 1.48E-03
-2.81 4.04 28.32 16.25 -0.7 1.70E-03
-6 4 27.46 16.08 -1.5 4.11E-03
4.85 4.31 31.55 16.61 1.13 2.65E-03
3.72 4.17 30.24 16.07 0.89 2.11E-03
-6.38 4.42 33.22 17.74 -1.44 3.35E-03
1.55 4.56 34.41 17.91 0.34 1.40E-03
8.51 4.65 34.95 17.99 1.83 4.49E-03
5.5 4.59 33.99 17.77 1.2 2.75E-03
1.52 4.57 33.34 17.73 0.33 1.75E-03
2.57 4.45 32.23 17.24 0.58 2.09E-03
2.64 4.3 31.16 16.67 0.62 2.29E-03
-1.25 4.29 30.64 16.66 -0.29 2.26E-03
-4.11 4.24 29.94 16.5 -0.97 2.95E-03
-5.95 4.17 29.14 16.21 -1.43 3.73E-03
1.24 4.26 29.8 16.34 0.29 2.78E-03
-1.54 4.22 29.17 16.19 -0.36 3.02E-03
-5.28 4.2 28.75 16.17 -1.26 3.91E-03
2 4.29 29.41 16.3 0.47 3.39E-03
6.31 4.29 29.12 16.22 1.47 4.47E-03
9.64 4.26 28.66 16.08 2.26 5.94E-03
6.01 4.25 28.27 16.06 1.42 4.81E-03
11.41 4.27 28.29 16.07 2.67 7.01E-03
5.83 4.31 28.36 16.29 1.36 5.08E-03
3.29 4.26 27.85 16.15 0.77 4.89E-03
 8.77 4.29 27.9 16.16 2.04 6.36E-03
6.29 4.25 27.42 16.02 1.48 5.93E-03
3.83 4.21 26.95 15.88 0.91 5.79E-03
-0.6 4.22 26.8 15.96 -0.14 5.78E-03
-5.72E-05 4.14 26.25 15.67 -1.38E-05 6.15E-03
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan
No Xt Ft Ft-Xt MR UCL LCL
1 34 28.767 -5.233 - 19.37 -19.37
2 26 28.738 2.738 7.971 19.37 -19.37
3 25 28.709 3.709 0.971 19.37 -19.37
4 26 28.680 2.680 1.029 19.37 -19.37
5 35 28.651 -6.349 9.029 19.37 -19.37
6 38 28.622 -9.378 3.029 19.37 -19.37
7 19 28.592 9.592 18.971 19.37 -19.37
8 27 28.563 1.563 8.029 19.37 -19.37
9 15 28.534 13.534 11.971 19.37 -19.37
10 26 28.505 2.505 11.029 19.37 -19.37
11 29 28.476 -0.524 3.029 19.37 -19.37
12 34 28.447 -5.55 5.029 19.37 -19.37
Total MR 80.087

MR 7.281
UCL 19.367
LCL -19.367
Daerah A + 12.911
Daerah A - -12.911
Daerah B + 6.456
Daerah B - -6.456
 A+ A- B+ B- 20.000
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46 15.000
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46 10.000
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46 5.000
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46
0.000
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46 -5.000
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46
-10.000
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46 -15.000
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46 -20.000
12.91 -12.91 6.46 -6.46 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
 Column AM
Column AO
Column AP
Column AQ
Column AR
Column AS
Column AT

Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
SES
Forecast Result for 510039

5/15/2009 Actual Forecast byForecast CFE

Month Data SES Error
1 12
2 15 12 3 3
3 5 12 -7 -4
4 6 12 -6 -10
5 5 12 -7 -17
6 8 12 -4 -21
7 7 12 -5 -26
8 7 12 -5 -31
9 5 12 -7 -38
10 11 12 -1 -39
11 10 12 -2 -41
12 9 12 -3 -44
13 8 12 -4 -48
14 5 12 -7 -55
15 6 12 -6 -61
16 10 12 -2 -63
17 7 12 -5 -68
18 10 12 -2 -70
19 8 12 -4 -74
20 8 12 -4 -78
21 5 12 -7 -85
22 7 12 -5 -90
23 6 12 -6 -96
24 6 12 -6 -102
25 5 12 -7 -109
26 8 12 -4 -113
27 5 12 -7 -120
28 13 12 1 -119
29 7 12 -5 -124
30 8 12 -4 -128
31 7 12 -5 -133
32 6 12 -6 -139
33 8 12 -4 -143
34 5 12 -7 -150
35 11 12 -1 -151
36 12 12 0 -151
37 8 12 -4 -155
38 9 12 -3 -158
39 10 12 -2 -160
40 11 12 -1 -161
41 8 12 -4 -165
42 7 12 -5 -170
43 5 12 -7 -177
 44 7 12 -5 -182
45 12 12 0 -182
46 15 12 3 -179
47 5 12 -7 -186
48 6 12 -6 -192
49 12
50 12
51 12
52 12
53 12
54 12
55 12
56 12
57 12
58 12
59 12
60 12

CFE -192
MAD 4.38
MSE 23.53
MAPE 69
Trk.Signal -43.81
R-square
Alpha=0
F(0)=12
 DES
Forecast Result for 510039
MAD MSE MAPE (%) Tracking R-square
Signal 5/15/2009
Month
3 9 20 1 1
5 29 80 -0.8 0.16 2
5.33 31.33 86.67 -1.88 0.55 3
5.75 35.75 100 -2.96 4
5.4 31.8 90 -3.89 5
5.33 30.67 86.9 -4.88 6
5.29 29.86 84.69 -5.86 7
5.5 32.25 91.61 -6.91 8
5 28.78 82.44 -7.8 9
4.7 26.3 76.19 -8.72 10
4.55 24.73 72.3 -9.68 11
4.5 24 70.44 -10.67 12
4.69 25.92 75.79 -11.72 13
4.79 26.64 77.52 -12.75 14
4.6 25.13 73.69 -13.7 15
4.63 25.13 73.54 -14.7 16
4.47 23.88 70.39 -15.66 17
4.44 23.44 69.26 -16.65 18
4.42 23.05 68.25 -17.64 19
4.55 24.35 71.84 -18.68 20
4.57 24.38 71.82 -19.69 21
4.64 24.91 73.1 -20.71 22
4.7 25.39 74.27 -21.72 23
4.79 26.38 77.01 -22.75 24
4.76 25.96 75.93 -23.74 25
4.85 26.85 78.39 -24.76 26
4.7 25.89 75.77 -25.3 27
4.71 25.86 75.62 -26.3 28
4.69 25.52 74.73 -27.29 29
4.7 25.5 74.62 -28.3 30
4.74 25.84 75.44 -29.31 31
4.72 25.53 74.65 -30.3 32
4.79 26.24 76.63 -31.33 33
4.68 25.5 74.64 -32.29 34
4.54 24.77 72.51 -33.24 35
4.53 24.53 71.88 -34.23 36
4.49 24.11 70.84 -35.22 37
4.42 23.58 69.5 -36.19 38
4.33 23 67.95 -37.15 39
4.33 22.83 67.51 -38.15 40
4.34 22.88 67.6 -39.16 41
4.4 23.5 69.32 -40.18 42
4.42 23.53 69.37 -41.19 43
4.32 23 67.8 -42.15 44
4.29 22.69 66.73 -41.74 45
4.35 23.26 68.33 -42.78 46
4.38 23.53 69 -43.81 47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

CFE
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Trk.Signal
R-square
cast Result for 510039

Actual Forecast byForecast CFE MAD MSE MAPE (%)

Data DES Error
12
15 12 3 3 3 9 20
5 12 -7 -4 5 29 80
6 12 -6 -10 5.33 31.33 86.67
5 12 -7 -17 5.75 35.75 100
8 12 -4 -21 5.4 31.8 90
7 12 -5 -26 5.33 30.67 86.9
7 12 -5 -31 5.29 29.86 84.69
5 12 -7 -38 5.5 32.25 91.61
11 12 -1 -39 5 28.78 82.44
10 12 -2 -41 4.7 26.3 76.19
9 12 -3 -44 4.55 24.73 72.3
8 12 -4 -48 4.5 24 70.44
5 12 -7 -55 4.69 25.92 75.79
6 12 -6 -61 4.79 26.64 77.52
10 12 -2 -63 4.6 25.13 73.69
7 12 -5 -68 4.63 25.13 73.54
10 12 -2 -70 4.47 23.88 70.39
8 12 -4 -74 4.44 23.44 69.26
8 12 -4 -78 4.42 23.05 68.25
5 12 -7 -85 4.55 24.35 71.84
7 12 -5 -90 4.57 24.38 71.82
6 12 -6 -96 4.64 24.91 73.1
6 12 -6 -102 4.7 25.39 74.27
5 12 -7 -109 4.79 26.38 77.01
8 12 -4 -113 4.76 25.96 75.93
5 12 -7 -120 4.85 26.85 78.39
13 12 1 -119 4.7 25.89 75.77
7 12 -5 -124 4.71 25.86 75.62
8 12 -4 -128 4.69 25.52 74.73
7 12 -5 -133 4.7 25.5 74.62
6 12 -6 -139 4.74 25.84 75.44
8 12 -4 -143 4.72 25.53 74.65
5 12 -7 -150 4.79 26.24 76.63
11 12 -1 -151 4.68 25.5 74.64
12 12 0 -151 4.54 24.77 72.51
8 12 -4 -155 4.53 24.53 71.88
9 12 -3 -158 4.49 24.11 70.84
10 12 -2 -160 4.42 23.58 69.5
11 12 -1 -161 4.33 23 67.95
8 12 -4 -165 4.33 22.83 67.51
7 12 -5 -170 4.34 22.88 67.6
 5 12 -7 -177 4.4 23.5 69.32
7 12 -5 -182 4.42 23.53 69.37
12 12 0 -182 4.32 23 67.8
15 12 3 -179 4.29 22.69 66.73
5 12 -7 -186 4.35 23.26 68.33
6 12 -6 -192 4.38 23.53 69
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12

-192
4.38
23.53
69
-43.81

Alpha=0
F(0)=12
F'(0)=12
 LR
Forecast Result for 510039

Tracking R-square 5/15/2009 Actual Forecast byForecast

Signal Month Data LR Error
1 12 7.74 4.26
1 2 15 7.75 7.25
-0.8 0.16 3 5 7.76 -2.76
-1.88 0.55 4 6 7.78 -1.78
-2.96 5 5 7.79 -2.79
-3.89 6 8 7.8 0.2
-4.88 7 7 7.81 -0.81
-5.86 8 7 7.82 -0.82
-6.91 9 5 7.83 -2.83
-7.8 10 11 7.84 3.16
-8.72 11 10 7.85 2.15
-9.68 12 9 7.86 1.14
-10.67 13 8 7.87 0.13
-11.72 14 5 7.88 -2.88
-12.75 15 6 7.9 -1.9
-13.7 16 10 7.91 2.09
-14.7 17 7 7.92 -0.92
-15.66 18 10 7.93 2.07
-16.65 19 8 7.94 6.03E-02
-17.64 20 8 7.95 4.93E-02
-18.68 21 5 7.96 -2.96
-19.69 22 7 7.97 -0.97
-20.71 23 6 7.98 -1.98
-21.72 24 6 7.99 -1.99
-22.75 25 5 8.01 -3.01
-23.74 26 8 8.02 -1.64E-02
-24.76 27 5 8.03 -3.03
-25.3 28 13 8.04 4.96
-26.3 29 7 8.05 -1.05
-27.29 30 8 8.06 -6.03E-02
-28.3 31 7 8.07 -1.07
-29.31 32 6 8.08 -2.08
-30.3 33 8 8.09 -9.32E-02
-31.33 34 5 8.1 -3.1
-32.29 35 11 8.12 2.88
-33.24 36 12 8.13 3.87
-34.23 37 8 8.14 -0.14
-35.22 38 9 8.15 0.85
-36.19 39 10 8.16 1.84
-37.15 40 11 8.17 2.83
-38.15 41 8 8.18 -0.18
-39.16 42 7 8.19 -1.19
-40.18 43 5 8.2 -3.2
-41.19 44 7 8.21 -1.21
-42.15 45 12 8.22 3.78
-41.74 46 15 8.24 6.76
-42.78 47 5 8.25 -3.25
-43.81 48 6 8.26 -2.26
49 8.27 9
50 8.28 9
51 8.29 9
52 8.3 9
53 8.31 9
54 8.32 9
55 8.33 9
56 8.35 9
57 8.36 9
58 8.37 9
59 8.38 9
60 8.39 9
108
CFE 7.63E-06
MAD 2.1
MSE 7.02
MAPE 27.87
Trk.Signal 3.64E-06
R-square 3.28E-03
Y-intercept=7.7314
Slope=0.0110
CFE MAD MSE MAPE (%) Tracking R-square
Signal
4.26 4.26 18.13 35.48 1
11.5 5.75 35.32 41.9 2
8.74 4.76 26.09 46.36 1.84 0.48
6.96 4.01 20.36 42.17 1.74 0.18
4.18 3.77 17.84 44.88 1.11 4.10E-02
4.38 3.17 14.87 37.82 1.38 3.74E-02
3.57 2.83 12.84 34.07 1.26 2.09E-02
2.75 2.58 11.32 31.27 1.07 1.07E-02
-7.58E-02 2.61 10.95 34.09 -2.91E-02 8.05E-05
3.08 2.66 10.86 33.55 1.16 8.99E-03
5.23 2.62 10.29 32.45 2 2.27E-02
6.37 2.49 9.54 30.8 2.55 3.07E-02
6.49 2.31 8.81 28.55 2.81 0.03
3.61 2.35 8.77 30.63 1.53 7.92E-03
1.71 2.32 8.43 30.7 0.74 1.84E-03
3.81 2.31 8.17 30.09 1.65 7.34E-03
2.89 2.23 7.74 29.09 1.3 4.15E-03
4.96 2.22 7.55 28.62 2.24 1.07E-02
5.02 2.1 7.15 27.16 2.39 1.04E-02
5.07 2 6.8 25.83 2.53 1.02E-02
2.11 2.05 6.89 27.42 1.03 2.13E-03
1.14 2 6.62 26.81 0.57 1.15E-03
-0.85 2 6.5 27.08 -0.42 1.04E-03
-2.84 2 6.4 27.33 -1.42 3.16E-03
-5.85 2.04 6.5 28.65 -2.87 9.66E-03
-5.86 1.96 6.25 27.55 -2.99 9.49E-03
-8.89 2 6.36 28.77 -4.45 1.90E-02
-3.93 2.11 7.01 29.11 -1.87 3.99E-03
-4.98 2.07 6.81 28.62 -2.41 5.67E-03
-5.04 2 6.58 27.69 -2.52 5.76E-03
-6.11 1.97 6.41 27.29 -3.1 7.73E-03
-8.19 1.98 6.34 27.53 -4.15 1.23E-02
-8.29 1.92 6.15 26.73 -4.32 1.24E-02
-11.39 1.95 6.25 27.77 -5.83 0.02
-8.51 1.98 6.31 27.72 -4.3 1.16E-02
-4.63 2.03 6.55 27.85 -2.28 4.55E-03
-4.77 1.98 6.38 27.14 -2.41 4.80E-03
-3.92 1.95 6.23 26.68 -2.01 4.05E-03
-2.08 1.95 6.16 26.47 -1.07 2.94E-03
0.75 1.97 6.2 26.45 0.38 2.63E-03
0.57 1.93 6.05 25.86 0.3 2.80E-03
-0.62 1.91 5.94 25.65 -0.32 3.00E-03
 -3.82 1.94 6.04 26.54 -1.97 4.39E-03
-5.04 1.92 5.94 26.33 -2.62 5.51E-03
-1.26 1.96 6.12 26.45 -0.64 3.43E-03
5.5 2.07 6.98 26.85 2.66 5.03E-03
2.26 2.09 7.06 27.66 1.08 3.44E-03
7.63E-06 2.1 7.02 27.87 3.64E-06 3.28E-03
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan
No Xt Ft Ft-Xt MR UCL LCL
1 12 7.742 -4.258 - 7.02 -7.02
2 15 7.753 -7.247 2.989 7.02 -7.02
3 5 7.764 2.764 10.011 7.02 -7.02
4 6 7.775 1.775 0.989 7.02 -7.02
5 5 7.786 2.786 1.011 7.02 -7.02
6 8 7.797 -0.203 2.989 7.02 -7.02
7 7 7.808 0.808 1.011 7.02 -7.02
8 7 7.819 0.819 0.011 7.02 -7.02
9 5 7.830 2.830 2.011 7.02 -7.02
10 11 7.841 -3.159 5.989 7.02 -7.02
11 10 7.852 -2.148 1.011 7.02 -7.02
12 9 7.863 -1.137 1.011 7.02 -7.02
Total MR 29.033

MR 2.639
UCL 7.021
LCL -7.021
Daerah A + 4.680
Daerah A - -4.680
Daerah B + 2.340
Daerah B - -2.340
 A+ A- B+ B- 8.000
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34
6.000
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34 4.000
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34 2.000
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34 0.000
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34 -2.000
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34
-4.000
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34 -6.000
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34 -8.000
4.68 -4.68 2.34 -2.34 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Ro
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
 Column AM
Column AP
Column AQ
Column AO
Column AR
Column AS
Column AT

Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
SES
Forecast Result for 892140

5/15/2009 Actual Forecast byForecast CFE

Month Data SES Error
1 5
2 4 5 -1 -1
3 3 5 -2 -3
4 8 5 3 0
5 8 5 3 3
6 4 5 -1 2
7 7 5 2 4
8 10 5 5 9
9 4 5 -1 8
10 3 5 -2 6
11 5 5 0 6
12 5 5 0 6
13 8 5 3 9
14 9 5 4 13
15 10 5 5 18
16 12 5 7 25
17 11 5 6 31
18 14 5 9 40
19 4 5 -1 39
20 2 5 -3 36
21 5 5 0 36
22 5 5 0 36
23 2 5 -3 33
24 6 5 1 34
25 8 5 3 37
26 10 5 5 42
27 5 5 0 42
28 6 5 1 43
29 9 5 4 47
30 5 5 0 47
31 4 5 -1 46
32 7 5 2 48
33 11 5 6 54
34 5 5 0 54
35 4 5 -1 53
36 9 5 4 57
37 5 5 0 57
38 11 5 6 63
39 4 5 -1 62
40 9 5 4 66
41 7 5 2 68
42 5 5 0 68
43 8 5 3 71
 44 6 5 1 72
45 5 5 0 72
46 3 5 -2 70
47 4 5 -1 69
48 7 5 2 71
49 5
50 5
51 5
52 5
53 5
54 5
55 5
56 5
57 5
58 5
59 5
60 5

CFE 71
MAD 2.36
MSE 10.19
MAPE 35.44
Trk.Signal 30.06
R-square 0.29
Alpha=0
F(0)=5
 DES
Forecast Result for 892140

MAD MSE MAPE (%) Tracking R-square 5/15/2009

Signal Month
1
1 1 25 -1 2
1.5 2.5 45.83 -2 3
2 4.67 43.06 0 0 4
2.25 5.75 41.67 1.33 0.11 5
2 4.8 38.33 1 3.45E-02 6
2 4.67 36.71 2 0.11 7
2.43 7.57 38.61 3.71 0.28 8
2.25 6.75 36.9 3.56 0.17 9
2.22 6.44 40.21 2.7 7.41E-02 10
2 5.8 36.19 3 6.62E-02 11
1.82 5.27 32.9 3.3 5.98E-02 12
1.92 5.58 33.28 4.7 0.11 13
2.08 6.38 34.14 6.26 0.19 14
2.29 7.71 35.27 7.88 0.27 15
2.6 10.47 36.81 9.62 0.36 16
2.81 12.06 37.92 11.02 0.45 17
3.18 16.12 39.47 12.59 0.52 18
3.06 15.28 38.67 12.76 0.44 19
3.05 14.95 44.53 11.79 0.32 20
2.9 14.2 42.3 12.41 0.3 21
2.76 13.52 40.29 13.03 0.28 22
2.77 13.32 45.27 11.9 0.2 23
2.7 12.78 44.03 12.61 0.21 24
2.71 12.63 43.76 13.66 0.23 25
2.8 13.12 44.01 15 0.27 26
2.69 12.62 42.31 15.6 0.26 27
2.63 12.19 41.36 16.35 0.26 28
2.68 12.32 41.47 17.55 0.3 29
2.59 11.9 40.04 18.17 0.28 30
2.53 11.53 39.54 18.16 0.26 31
2.52 11.29 39.19 19.08 0.27 32
2.63 12.06 39.67 20.57 0.31 33
2.55 11.7 38.47 21.21 0.3 34
2.5 11.38 38.07 21.2 0.27 35
2.54 11.51 38.25 22.42 0.3 36
2.47 11.19 37.19 23.06 0.29 37
2.57 11.86 37.66 24.54 0.32 38
2.53 11.58 37.33 24.54 0.3 39
2.56 11.69 37.51 25.74 0.32 40
2.55 11.5 37.29 26.67 0.34 41
2.49 11.22 36.38 27.33 0.32 42
2.5 11.17 36.4 28.4 0.34 43
2.47 10.93 35.94 29.21 0.35 44
2.41 10.68 35.13 29.89 0.33 45
2.4 10.53 35.83 29.17 0.3 46
2.37 10.33 35.59 29.12 0.28 47
2.36 10.19 35.44 30.06 0.29 48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

CFE
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Trk.Signal
R-square
ecast Result for 892140

Actual Forecast byForecast CFE MAD MSE MAPE (%)

Data DES Error
5
4 5 -1 -1 1 1 25
3 5 -2 -3 1.5 2.5 45.83
8 5 3 0 2 4.67 43.06
8 5 3 3 2.25 5.75 41.67
4 5 -1 2 2 4.8 38.33
7 5 2 4 2 4.67 36.71
10 5 5 9 2.43 7.57 38.61
4 5 -1 8 2.25 6.75 36.9
3 5 -2 6 2.22 6.44 40.21
5 5 0 6 2 5.8 36.19
5 5 0 6 1.82 5.27 32.9
8 5 3 9 1.92 5.58 33.28
9 5 4 13 2.08 6.38 34.14
10 5 5 18 2.29 7.71 35.27
12 5 7 25 2.6 10.47 36.81
11 5 6 31 2.81 12.06 37.92
14 5 9 40 3.18 16.12 39.47
4 5 -1 39 3.06 15.28 38.67
2 5 -3 36 3.05 14.95 44.53
5 5 0 36 2.9 14.2 42.3
5 5 0 36 2.76 13.52 40.29
2 5 -3 33 2.77 13.32 45.27
6 5 1 34 2.7 12.78 44.03
8 5 3 37 2.71 12.63 43.76
10 5 5 42 2.8 13.12 44.01
5 5 0 42 2.69 12.62 42.31
6 5 1 43 2.63 12.19 41.36
9 5 4 47 2.68 12.32 41.47
5 5 0 47 2.59 11.9 40.04
4 5 -1 46 2.53 11.53 39.54
7 5 2 48 2.52 11.29 39.19
11 5 6 54 2.63 12.06 39.67
5 5 0 54 2.55 11.7 38.47
4 5 -1 53 2.5 11.38 38.07
9 5 4 57 2.54 11.51 38.25
5 5 0 57 2.47 11.19 37.19
11 5 6 63 2.57 11.86 37.66
4 5 -1 62 2.53 11.58 37.33
9 5 4 66 2.56 11.69 37.51
7 5 2 68 2.55 11.5 37.29
5 5 0 68 2.49 11.22 36.38
8 5 3 71 2.5 11.17 36.4
6 5 1 72 2.47 10.93 35.94
5 5 0 72 2.41 10.68 35.13
3 5 -2 70 2.4 10.53 35.83
4 5 -1 69 2.37 10.33 35.59
7 5 2 71 2.36 10.19 35.44
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5

71
2.36
10.19
35.44
30.06
0.29
Alpha=0
F(0)=5
F'(0)=5
 LR
Forecast Result for 892140

Tracking R-square 5/15/2009 Actual Forecast byForecast

Signal Month Data LR Error
1 5 6.55 -1.55
-1 2 4 6.55 -2.55
-2 3 3 6.55 -3.55
0 0 4 8 6.54 1.46
1.33 0.11 5 8 6.54 1.46
1 3.45E-02 6 4 6.54 -2.54
2 0.11 7 7 6.54 0.46
3.71 0.28 8 10 6.53 3.47
3.56 0.17 9 4 6.53 -2.53
2.7 7.41E-02 10 3 6.53 -3.53
3 6.62E-02 11 5 6.52 -1.52
3.3 5.98E-02 12 5 6.52 -1.52
4.7 0.11 13 8 6.52 1.48
6.26 0.19 14 9 6.51 2.49
7.88 0.27 15 10 6.51 3.49
9.62 0.36 16 12 6.51 5.49
11.02 0.45 17 11 6.5 4.5
12.59 0.52 18 14 6.5 7.5
12.76 0.44 19 4 6.5 -2.5
11.79 0.32 20 2 6.49 -4.49
12.41 0.3 21 5 6.49 -1.49
13.03 0.28 22 5 6.49 -1.49
11.9 0.2 23 2 6.48 -4.48
12.61 0.21 24 6 6.48 -0.48
13.66 0.23 25 8 6.48 1.52
15 0.27 26 10 6.47 3.53
15.6 0.26 27 5 6.47 -1.47
16.35 0.26 28 6 6.47 -0.47
17.55 0.3 29 9 6.46 2.54
18.17 0.28 30 5 6.46 -1.46
18.16 0.26 31 4 6.46 -2.46
19.08 0.27 32 7 6.46 0.54
20.57 0.31 33 11 6.45 4.55
21.21 0.3 34 5 6.45 -1.45
21.2 0.27 35 4 6.45 -2.45
22.42 0.3 36 9 6.44 2.56
23.06 0.29 37 5 6.44 -1.44
24.54 0.32 38 11 6.44 4.56
24.54 0.3 39 4 6.43 -2.43
25.74 0.32 40 9 6.43 2.57
26.67 0.34 41 7 6.43 0.57
27.33 0.32 42 5 6.42 -1.42
28.4 0.34 43 8 6.42 1.58
29.21 0.35 44 6 6.42 -0.42
29.89 0.33 45 5 6.41 -1.41
29.17 0.3 46 3 6.41 -3.41
29.12 0.28 47 4 6.41 -2.41
30.06 0.29 48 7 6.4 0.6
49 6.4 7
50 6.4 7
51 6.39 7
52 6.39 7
53 6.39 7
54 6.38 7
55 6.38 7
56 6.38 7
57 6.38 7
58 6.37 7
59 6.37 7
60 6.37 7
84
CFE 1.14E-05
MAD 2.37
MSE 7.79
MAPE 46
Trk.Signal 4.83E-06
R-square 2.53E-04
Y-intercept=6.5576
Slope=-3.20E-3
CFE MAD MSE MAPE (%) Tracking R-square
Signal
-1.55 1.55 2.42 31.09 -1
-4.11 2.05 4.46 47.43 -2
-7.65 2.55 7.17 71.05 -3
-6.2 2.28 5.91 57.83 -2.72 0.69
-4.74 2.11 5.15 49.91 -2.24 0.21
-7.28 2.18 5.37 52.17 -3.33 0.38
-6.81 1.94 4.63 45.67 -3.51 0.26
-3.35 2.13 5.56 44.29 -1.57 3.26E-02
-5.87 2.17 5.65 46.4 -2.7 8.18E-02
-9.4 2.31 6.33 53.51 -4.07 0.16
-10.92 2.24 5.96 51.41 -4.88 0.2
-12.44 2.18 5.66 49.66 -5.71 0.23
-10.96 2.12 5.39 47.27 -5.16 0.15
-8.47 2.15 5.45 45.86 -3.94 7.23E-02
-4.98 2.24 5.9 45.13 -2.22 1.92E-02
0.51 2.44 7.42 45.17 0.21 1.69E-04
5.01 2.56 8.17 44.92 1.95 0.01
12.51 2.84 10.84 45.4 4.41 4.70E-02
10.01 2.82 10.6 46.3 3.55 2.71E-02
5.52 2.9 11.08 55.22 1.9 6.98E-03
4.03 2.84 10.66 54.01 1.42 3.51E-03
2.54 2.78 10.27 52.9 0.92 1.35E-03
-1.94 2.85 10.7 60.35 -0.68 7.09E-04
-2.42 2.75 10.26 58.17 -0.88 1.04E-03
-0.9 2.7 9.95 56.6 -0.33 1.84E-04
2.63 2.73 10.04 55.78 0.96 1.08E-03
1.15 2.69 9.75 54.81 0.43 2.52E-04
0.69 2.61 9.41 53.13 0.26 1.35E-04
3.22 2.6 9.31 52.27 1.24 1.41E-03
1.76 2.57 9.07 51.5 0.69 4.66E-04
-0.7 2.56 8.97 51.82 -0.27 1.48E-04
-0.15 2.5 8.7 50.45 -6.12E-02 1.03E-04
4.39 2.56 9.06 50.17 1.72 2.07E-03
2.95 2.53 8.86 49.55 1.16 9.62E-04
0.5 2.53 8.77 49.88 0.2 1.43E-04
3.06 2.53 8.71 49.28 1.21 9.58E-04
1.62 2.5 8.53 48.73 0.65 3.62E-04
6.18 2.55 8.86 48.54 2.42 3.15E-03
3.75 2.55 8.78 48.85 1.47 1.20E-03
6.32 2.55 8.73 48.34 2.48 3.04E-03
6.89 2.5 8.52 47.37 2.76 3.51E-03
5.47 2.48 8.37 46.92 2.21 2.22E-03
7.05 2.46 8.23 46.28 2.87 3.48E-03
 6.63 2.41 8.05 45.39 2.75 3.05E-03
5.22 2.39 7.91 45.01 2.19 1.93E-03
1.81 2.41 7.99 46.5 0.75 4.20E-04
-0.6 2.41 7.95 46.79 -0.25 2.58E-04
1.14E-05 2.37 7.79 46 4.83E-06 2.53E-04
Verifikasi Fungsi Peramalan
No Xt Ft Ft-Xt MR UCL LCL
1 5 6.554 1.554 - 6.29 -6.29
2 4 6.551 2.551 0.997 6.29 -6.29
3 3 6.548 3.548 0.997 6.29 -6.29
4 8 6.545 -1.455 5.003 6.29 -6.29
5 8 6.542 -1.458 0.003 6.29 -6.29
6 4 6.538 2.538 3.997 6.29 -6.29
7 7 6.535 -0.465 3.003 6.29 -6.29
8 10 6.532 -3.468 3.003 6.29 -6.29
9 4 6.529 2.529 5.997 6.29 -6.29
10 3 6.526 3.526 0.997 6.29 -6.29
11 5 6.522 1.522 2.003 6.29 -6.29
12 5 6.519 1.519 0.003 6.29 -6.29
Total MR 26.003

MR 2.364
UCL 6.288
LCL -6.288
Daerah A + 4.192
Daerah A - -4.192
Daerah B + 2.096
Daerah B - -2.096
 A+ A- B+ B- 8.000
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1
6.000
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1 4.000
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1
2.000
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1 0.000
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1 -2.000
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1
-4.000
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1 -6.000
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1
-8.000
4.19 -4.19 2.1 -2.1 Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 Column AM
Column AO
Column AP
Column AQ
Column AR
Column AS
Column AT

w Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
 Hasil Peramalan
14 Produk Total Demand
112106 72
261181 393
531550 308
510039 108
892140 84

Biaya Perawatan Gudang

Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang
Nilai Gudang
Sisa
Depresiasi
Peningkatan
Ongkos Pemesanan
(Pengadaan)/transaksi
Biaya backorder

15 Produk Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun

112106 $53,131,974.69
261181 $53,012,814.69
531550 $53,421,894.69
510039 $53,434,374.69
892140 $52,944,774.69

16 Produk Lead time

112106 3
261181 1
531550 3
510039 2
892140 2

17 Produk Reorder Point (B)

112106 18
261181 33
531550 77
510039 18
892140 14

18 Produk Total Biaya Persediaan

112106 $272,703,873.47
261181 $687,864,446.94
531550 $575,567,852.25
510039 $366,013,548.17
892140 $302,009,773.47
 Harga Barang/Unit Biaya Pembelian/Tahun
$52,000.00 $3,744,000.00
$7,000.00 $2,751,000.00
$20,000.00 $6,160,000.00
$58,000.00 $6,264,000.00
$26,000.00 $2,184,000.00

$2,500,000.00
$48,543,750.00
$93,950,839.00
5%
$1,638,944.69
12%
$300,000.00

$935,350.00

Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) m (Frekuensi Pemesanan)

7 11
17 24
15 21
9 12
8 11

Permintaan/ lead time Stock

24 66
393 235
103 15
54 16
42 8

Safety Stock Rata-rata Persediaan

1 4
1 9
1 8
1 5
1 4

$10,288,850.00
$1,714,808.33
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = demand * harga pembelian
Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Frekuensi Pemesanan = demand * ukuran pemesanan
Ukuran Pemesanan = √ (2CR)/H
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr
Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra
Biaya Simpan/tahun = (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u
Reorder point = demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi

Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun
$3,300,000.00 $161,774.37
$7,200,000.00
$6,300,000.00
$3,600,000.00
$3,300,000.00

Kekurangan Persediaan Biaya Kekurangan

0 $-
158 $147,785,300.00
88 $82,310,800.00
38 $35,543,300.00
34 $31,801,900.00

Biaya Simpan/ tahun 63.6

$265,659,873.47
$530,128,146.94
$480,797,052.25
$320,606,248.17
$264,723,873.47
engadaan/transaksi

aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit

backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode
diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
 Hasil Peramalan
14 Produk Total Demand
112106 72
261181 393
531550 308
510039 108
892140 84

Biaya Perawatan Gudang

Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang
Nilai Gudang
Sisa
Depresiasi
Peningkatan
Ongkos Pemesanan
(Pengadaan)/transaksi
Biaya backorder

15 Produk Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun

112106 54,929,094.69
261181 54,333,294.69
531550 56,378,694.69
510039 56,441,094.69
892140 53,993,094.69

16 Produk Lead time

112106 3
261181 1
531550 3
510039 2
892140 2

17 Produk Reorder Point (B)

112106 18
261181 33
531550 77
510039 18
892140 14

18 Produk Total Biaya Persediaan

112106 $281,689,473.47
261181 $701,069,246.94
531550 $602,179,052.25
510039 $384,053,868.17
892140 $307,251,373.47

Rusdi 95
Josep 126
Jumlah 221
 Harga Barang/Unit Biaya Pembelian/Tahun
52,000.00 $3,744,000.00
7,000.00 $2,751,000.00
20,000.00 $6,160,000.00
58,000.00 $6,264,000.00
26,000.00 $2,184,000.00

2,500,000.00
48,543,750.00
93,950,839.00
5%
1,638,944.69
12%
$300,000.00

$935,350.00

Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) m (Frekuensi Pemesanan)

7 11
17 24
15 21
9 12
8 11

Permintaan/ lead time Stock

24 66
393 235
103 15
54 16
42 8

Safety Stock Rata-rata Persediaan

1 4
1 9
1 8
1 5
1 4

5
9
5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = demand * harga pembelian
Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Frekuensi Pemesanan = demand * ukuran pemesanan
Ukuran Pemesanan = √ (2CR)/H
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr
Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra
Biaya Simpan/tahun = (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u
Reorder point = demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi

Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun
$3,300,000.00
$7,200,000.00
$6,300,000.00
$3,600,000.00
$3,300,000.00

Kekurangan Persediaan Biaya Kekurangan

0 $-
158 $147,785,300.00
88 $82,310,800.00
38 $35,543,300.00
34 $31,801,900.00

Biaya Simpan/ tahun

$274,645,473.47
$543,332,946.94
$507,408,252.25
$338,646,568.17
$269,965,473.47
engadaan/transaksi

aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit

backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode
diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
 Hasil Peramalan
14 Produk Total Demand
112106 72
261181 393
531550 308
510039 108
892140 84

Biaya Perawatan Gudang

Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang
Nilai Gudang
Sisa
Depresiasi
Peningkatan
Ongkos Pemesanan
(Pengadaan)/transaksi
Biaya backorder

15 Produk Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun

112106 $56,726,214.69
261181 $55,653,774.69
531550 $59,335,494.69
510039 $59,447,814.69
892140 $55,041,414.69

16 Produk Lead time

112106 3
261181 1
531550 3
510039 2
892140 2

17 Produk Reorder Point (B)

112106 18
261181 33
531550 77
510039 18
892140 14

18 Produk Total Biaya Persediaan

112106 $290,675,073.47
261181 $714,274,046.94
531550 $628,790,252.25
510039 $402,094,188.17
892140 $312,492,973.47

Rusdi 95
Josep 126
Jumlah 221
 Harga Barang/Unit Biaya Pembelian/Tahun
52,000.00 $3,744,000.00
7,000.00 $2,751,000.00
20,000.00 $6,160,000.00
58,000.00 $6,264,000.00
26,000.00 $2,184,000.00

$2,500,000.00
$48,543,750.00
$93,950,839.00
5%
$1,638,944.69
12%
$300,000.00

$935,350.00

Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) m (Frekuensi Pemesanan)

7 11
17 24
15 21
9 12
8 11

Permintaan/ lead time Stock

24 66
393 235
103 15
54 16
42 8

Safety Stock Rata-rata Persediaan

1 4
1 9
1 8
1 5
1 4

5
9
5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = demand * harga pembelian
Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Frekuensi Pemesanan = demand * ukuran pemesanan
Ukuran Pemesanan = √ (2CR)/H
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr
Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra
Biaya Simpan/tahun = (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u
Reorder point = demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi

Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun
$3,300,000.00
$7,200,000.00
$6,300,000.00
$3,600,000.00
$3,300,000.00

Kekurangan Persediaan Biaya Kekurangan

0 $-
158 $147,785,300.00
88 $82,310,800.00
38 $35,543,300.00
34 $31,801,900.00

Biaya Simpan/ tahun

$283,631,073.47
$556,537,746.94
$534,019,452.25
$356,686,888.17
$275,207,073.47
engadaan/transaksi

aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit

backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode
diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
 Hasil Peramalan
14 Produk Total Demand
112106 72
261181 393
531550 308
510039 108
892140 84

Biaya Perawatan Gudang

Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang
Nilai Gudang
Sisa
Depresiasi
Peningkatan
Ongkos Pemesanan
(Pengadaan)/transaksi
Biaya backorder

15 Produk Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun

112106 $54,929,094.69
261181 $54,333,294.69
531550 $56,378,694.69
510039 $56,441,094.69
892140 $53,993,094.69

16 Produk Lead time

112106 3
261181 1
531550 3
510039 2
892140 2

17 Produk Reorder Point (B)

112106 18
261181 33
531550 77
510039 18
892140 14

18 Produk Total Biaya Persediaan

112106 $505,605,852.25
261181 $1,253,702,193.89
531550 $1,118,287,304.50
510039 $671,659,341.64
892140 $581,416,846.94

Rusdi 95
Josep 126
Jumlah 221
 Harga Barang/Unit Biaya Pembelian/Tahun
52,000.00 $3,744,000.00
7,000.00 $2,751,000.00
20,000.00 $6,160,000.00
58,000.00 $6,264,000.00
26,000.00 $2,184,000.00

$2,500,000.00
$48,543,750.00
$93,950,839.00
5%
$1,638,944.69
12%
$1,500,000.00

$935,350.00

Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) m (Frekuensi Pemesanan)

16 5
36 11
32 10
19 6
17 5

Permintaan/ lead time Stock

24 66
393 235
103 15
54 16
42 8

Safety Stock Rata-rata Persediaan

1 8
2 18
2 16
1 10
1 9

5
9
5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = demand * harga pembelian
Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Frekuensi Pemesanan = demand * ukuran pemesanan
Ukuran Pemesanan = √ (2CR)/H
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr
Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra
Biaya Simpan/tahun = (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u
Reorder point = demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi

Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun
$7,500,000.00
$16,500,000.00
$15,000,000.00
$9,000,000.00
$7,500,000.00

Kekurangan Persediaan Biaya Kekurangan

0 $-
158 $147,785,300.00
88 $82,310,800.00
38 $35,543,300.00
34 $31,801,900.00

Biaya Simpan/ tahun

$494,361,852.25
$1,086,665,893.89
$1,014,816,504.50
$620,852,041.64
$539,930,946.94
engadaan/transaksi

aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit

backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode
diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
 Hasil Peramalan
14 Produk Total Demand
112106 72
261181 393
531550 308
510039 108
892140 84

Biaya Perawatan Gudang

Biaya Tenaga Kerja Gudang
Nilai Gudang
Sisa
Depresiasi
Peningkatan
Ongkos Pemesanan
(Pengadaan)/transaksi
Biaya backorder

15 Produk Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun

112106 $56,726,214.69
261181 $55,653,774.69
531550 $59,335,494.69
510039 $59,447,814.69
892140 $55,041,414.69

16 Produk Lead time

112106 3
261181 1
531550 3
510039 2
892140 2

17 Produk Reorder Point (B)

112106 18
261181 33
531550 77
510039 18
892140 14

18 Produk Total Biaya Persediaan

112106 $521,779,932.25
261181 $1,280,111,793.89
531550 $1,171,509,704.50
510039 $704,733,261.64
892140 $591,900,046.94

Rusdi 95
Josep 126
Jumlah 221
 Harga Barang/Unit Biaya Pembelian/Tahun
52,000.00 $3,744,000.00
7,000.00 $2,751,000.00
20,000.00 $6,160,000.00
58,000.00 $6,264,000.00
26,000.00 $2,184,000.00

$2,500,000.00
$48,543,750.00
$93,950,839.00
5%
$1,638,944.69
12%
$1,500,000.00

$935,350.00

Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) m (Frekuensi Pemesanan)

16 5
36 11
32 10
19 6
17 5

Permintaan/ lead time Stock

24 66
393 235
103 15
54 16
42 8

Safety Stock Rata-rata Persediaan

1 8
2 18
2 16
1 10
1 9

5
9
5
Biaya Pembelian/tahun = demand * harga pembelian
Biaya Pengadaan/tahun = frekuensi pemesanan * biaya pengadaan/transaksi
Frekuensi Pemesanan = demand * ukuran pemesanan
Ukuran Pemesanan = √ (2CR)/H
Biaya Simpan/unit/tahun = biaya tenaga kerja gudang + biaya perawatan + depr
Biaya Kekurangan Persediaan/tahun = (frekuensi pemesanan * biaya backorder/unit )/rata-ra
Biaya Simpan/tahun = (Safety stock + rata-rata persediaan) * biaya simpan/u
Reorder point = demand * biaya pengadaan/transaksi

Biaya Pengadaan/Tahun
$7,500,000.00
$16,500,000.00
$15,000,000.00
$9,000,000.00
$7,500,000.00

Kekurangan Persediaan Biaya Kekurangan

0 $-
158 $147,785,300.00
88 $82,310,800.00
38 $35,543,300.00
34 $31,801,900.00

Biaya Simpan/ tahun

$510,535,932.25
$1,113,075,493.89
$1,068,038,904.50
$653,925,961.64
$550,414,146.94
engadaan/transaksi

aya perawatan + depresiasi gudang + harga barang/unit

backorder/unit )/rata-rata backorder/periode
diaan) * biaya simpan/unit/tahun
 Data Pemakaian Tahun 2008 dan 2009
Kode
Bulan
112106 261181 531550
1 6 34 20
2 6 34 22
3 4 35 22
4 6 32 29
5 4 35 19
6 7 31 17
7 4 33 38
8 5 31 26
9 3 32 22
10 2 25 25
11 7 38 26
12 7 39 18
Σ 61 399 284

Data Penyimpangan
Penyimpangan
Periode
112106 261181 531550
1 0.000% 2.941% 40.000%
2 0.000% 2.941% 27.273%
3 50.000% 5.714% 27.273%
4 0.000% 3.125% 3.448%
5 50.000% 5.714% 47.368%
6 14.286% 6.452% 64.706%
7 50.000% 0.000% 26.316%
8 20.000% 6.452% 7.692%
9 100.000% 3.125% 27.273%
10 200.000% 28.000% 12.000%
11 14.286% 15.789% 7.692%
12 14.286% 17.949% 55.556%
Rata-rata 42.738% 8.184% 28.883%

Perhitungan EOQ
Kode Q* (Ukuran Pemesanan) QR*
112106 7 7
261181 17 17
531550 15 14
510039 9 8
892140 8 8

Analisis
1.Hasil Forecaseting=Tidak Valid Kenapa??
2.Q* dan QR*=Valid

Penilaian Tugas
1.Lengkap
2.Informatif (diawali oleh tabel/data)

laporan dalam bentuk PDF

1.Contreng Tidak bisa di print
2.Contreng Tidak diedit
dan 2009 Hasil Peramalan
Kode
Periode
510039 892140 112106 261181
7 9 1 6 33
7 9 2 6 33
11 3 3 6 33
7 7 4 6 33
12 11 5 6 33
9 7 6 6 33
6 5 7 6 33
6 3 8 6 33
7 13 9 6 33
7 8 10 6 32
8 7 11 6 32
5 9 12 6 32
92 91 Σ 72 393

% Validasi 20%
Validitas
ngan Validasi
Periode
510039 892140 112106 261181
28.571% 22.222% 1 Valid Valid
28.571% 22.222% 2 Valid Valid
18.182% 133.333% 3 Tidak Valid Valid
28.571% 0.000% 4 Valid Valid
25.000% 36.364% 5 Tidak Valid Valid
0.000% 0.000% 6 Valid Valid
50.000% 40.000% 7 Tidak Valid Valid
50.000% 133.333% 8 Valid Valid
28.571% 46.154% 9 Tidak Valid Valid
28.571% 12.500% 10 Tidak Valid Tidak Valid
12.500% 0.000% 11 Valid Valid
80.000% 22.222% 12 Valid Valid
31.545% 39.029%

Penyimpangan EOQ dan validasi

Kode Penyimpangan Validasi
112106 0.000% Valid
261181 0.000% Valid
531550 6.667% Valid
510039 11.111% Valid
892140 0.000% Valid
Hasil Peramalan
Kode
531550 510039 892140
28 9 7
28 9 7
28 9 7
28 9 7
28 9 7
28 9 7
28 9 7
28 9 7
28 9 7
28 9 7
28 9 7
28 9 7
336 108 84

Validasi
531550 510039 892140
Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid
Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid
Tidak Valid Valid Tidak Valid
Valid Tidak Valid Valid
Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid
Tidak Valid Valid Valid
Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid
Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid
Tidak Valid Tidak Valid Tidak Valid
Valid Tidak Valid Valid
Valid Valid Valid
Valid Valid Valid