Catalog 1

109 Argument ....................................................................................5

1. The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a
processor of frozen foods................................................................................................................... 5
. The following appeared in a memorandum from the business department of the !pogee Company.
........................................................................................................................................................... "
#. The following appeared in a memorandum issued by a large city$s council on the arts....................."
%. The following appeared in a report presented for discussion at a meeting of the directors of a
company that manufactures parts for hea&y machinery.....................................................................'
5. The following appeared in an announcement issued by the publisher of The (ercury, a weekly
newspaper.......................................................................................................................................... )
". The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine de&oted to regional life..........................*
'. The following appeared in the health section of a magazine on trends and lifestyles......................1+
). The following appeared in the editorial section of a corporate newsletter........................................11
*. The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine...........................................11
1+. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper............................................1%
11. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.............................................1%
1. The following appeared as part of a promotional campaign to sell ad&ertising space in the ,aily
-azette to grocery stores in the (arston area.................................................................................15
1#. The following appeared as part of a campaign to sell ad&ertising time on a local radio station to
local businesses............................................................................................................................... 1"
1%. The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial...............................................................1'
15. The following appeared as a part of an ad&ertisement for !dams, who is seeking reelection as
go&ernor........................................................................................................................................... 1)
1". The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a .aymarsh City
newspaper........................................................................................................................................ 1*
1'. The following appeared in an article in a consumer/products magazine.......................................+
1). The following is an e0cerpt from a memo written by the head of a go&ernmental department......1
1*. The following appeared as part of an article in the tra&el section of a newspaper.........................
+. The following appeared in an article in a health and fitness magazine..........................................#
1. The following appeared as part of an editorial in an industry newsletter........................................5
. The following appeared in the editorial section of a newspaper....................................................."
#. The following appeared in a speech deli&ered by a member of the city council............................'
%. The following appeared in a memo from the customer ser&ice di&ision to the manager of (ammon
1a&ings and 2oan............................................................................................................................. )
5. The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine on lifestyles.......................................*
". The following appeared in a memorandum from a member of a financial management and
consulting firm.................................................................................................................................. #+
'. The following appeared in a newspaper editorial...........................................................................#1
). The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper............................................#
*. The following was e0cerpted from the speech of a spokesperson for 1ynthetic Farm 3roducts, 4nc.
2 Catalog
......................................................................................................................................................... #
#+. The following appeared in a newspaper story gi&ing ad&ice about in&estments............................##
#1. The following appeared as part of the business plan of an in&estment and financial consulting
firm................................................................................................................................................... #%
#. The following appeared in the editorial section of a .est Cambria newspaper.............................#5
##. The following is part of a business plan being discussed at a board meeting of the 3erks
Company.......................................................................................................................................... #"
#%. The following appeared as part of a plan proposed by an e0ecuti&e of the 5asy Credit Company
to the president................................................................................................................................. #'
#5. The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the financial planning office to the
administration of Fern 6alley 7ni&ersity............................................................................................#)
#". The following appeared in an article in a college departmental newsletter....................................#*
#'. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper...........%+
#). The following appeared in the editorial section of a campus newspaper.......................................%1
#*. The following appeared in an !&ia !irlines departmental memorandum........................................%
%+. The following appeared as part of an article in a weekly newsmagazine.......................................%#
%1. The following appeared as part of an article in a trade publication................................................%%
%. The following appeared in the opinion section of a national newsmagazine..................................%%
%#. The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper....................................%5
%%. The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the (egamart grocery
store................................................................................................................................................. %"
%5. The following appeared as part of a column in a popular entertainment magazine.......................%'
%". The following appeared in a memorandum from the directors of a security and safety consulting
ser&ice.............................................................................................................................................. %)
%'. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper...........%*
%). The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper............................................5+
%*. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper............................................5+
5+. The following appeared as part of a business plan recommended by the new manager of a
musical rock group called 8apped.................................................................................................... 51
51. The following appeared in a magazine article on trends and lifestyles..........................................5
5. The following editorial appeared in the 5lm City paper..................................................................5#
5#. The following appeared as part of an editorial in a weekly newsmagazine....................................5%
5%. The following appeared in an 50celsior Company memorandum..................................................55
55. The following appeared as part of an article in a health club trade publication..............................5"
5". The following appeared as part of an article in a popular arts and leisure magazine....................5"
5'. The following is from a campaign by 9ig 9oards, 4nc., to con&ince companies in :i&er City that
their sales will increase if they use 9ig 9oards billboards for ad&ertising their locally manufactured
products............................................................................................................................................ 5'
5). The following appeared as part of an article on go&ernment funding of en&ironmental regulatory
agencies........................................................................................................................................... 5)
Catalog 3
5*. The following appeared as part of an article in a popular science magazine.................................5*
"+. The following appeared as part of a recommendation by one of the directors of the 9eta
Company.......................................................................................................................................... "+
"1. The following appeared in the letters/to/the/editor section of a local newspaper..........................."1
". The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper..........."
"#. The following appeared in a memorandum from the ,irector of ;uman :esources to the
e0ecuti&e officers of Company <...................................................................................................... "#
"%. The following appeared in a memorandum from the &ice president of :oad Food, an international
chain of fast/food restaurants........................................................................................................... "%
"5. The following appeared in the promotional literature for Cerberus dog food................................."%
"". The following appeared in an article in a tra&el magazine............................................................."5
"'. The following appeared in a memorandum to the planning department of an in&estment firm......""
"). The following appeared in a memorandum from a company$s marketing department..................."'
"*. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of a company that makes =
-labrous> shampoo.................................................................................................................. ")
'+. The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department
store................................................................................................................................................. "*
'1. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a regional newspaper.......................................'+
'. The following appeared as part of an editorial in a campus newspaper.........................................'1
'#. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from a go&ernment agency............................'1
'%. The following appeared as part of an article in an entertainment magazine..................................'
'5. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a popular science and technology magazine.. .'#
'". The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper............................................'%
''. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper............................................'5
'). The following appeared in the editorial section of a monthly business newsmagazine.................'"
'*. The following appeared as part of a company memorandum........................................................'"
)+. The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper............................................''
)1. The following appeared in the editorial section of a newspaper in the country of .est Cambria.. ')
). The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the &ice president of ?ostrum, a large
pharmaceutical corporation.............................................................................................................. '*
)#. The following appeared as part of an article on trends in tele&ision...............................................)+
)%. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a daily newspaper...........)1
)5. The following appeared as part of an article in a photography magazine......................................)
)". The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a local newspaper................................)#
)'. The following appeared in an ad for a book titled ;ow to .rite a 1creenplay for a (o&ie............)%
)). The following appeared in a memorandum from the 5lectro.ares company$s marketing
department....................................................................................................................................... )5
)*. The following is taken from an editorial in a local newspaper........................................................)"
*+. The following appeared as part of an article in a local newspaper.................................................)'
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*1. The following appeared in a proposal from the de&elopment office at 3latonic 7ni&ersity.............))
*. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper...........))
*#. The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of @(T6, a tele&ision station........)*
*%. The following appeared as part of an article in a computer magazine...........................................*+
*5. The following was e0cerpted from an article in a farming trade publication...................................*1
*". The following appeared in a letter to prospecti&e students from the admissions office at 3lateau
College............................................................................................................................................. *
*'. The following appeared in a memorandum sent by a &ice/president of the ?adir Company to the
company$s human resources department........................................................................................*#
*). The following appeared as part of an article in a trade magazine for breweries............................*%
**. The following appeared in an editorial from a newspaper ser&ing the town of 1aluda..................*5
1++. The following appeared as part of an article in the book section of a newspaper........................*"
1+1. The following appeared as an editorial in a magazine concerned with educational issues.........*'
1+. The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take ;eart
Fitness Center.................................................................................................................................. *'
1+#. The following appeared in a letter from a staff member in the office of admissions at !rgent
7ni&ersity.......................................................................................................................................... *)
1+%. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite
?ational 9ank................................................................................................................................... **
1+5. The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a local newspaper............................1++
1+". The following appeared in a memo to the 1aluda town council from the town$s business
manager......................................................................................................................................... 1+1
1+'. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the assistant manager of a store that sells
gourmet food items from &arious countries....................................................................................1+
1+). The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of research and de&elopment at
:eady/to/.are, a software engineering firm..................................................................................1+#
1+*. The following appeared in a memorandum from the &ice/president of the ,olci Candy Company.
....................................................................................................................................................... 1+%
Issue 5
109 Argument
1. The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic
oods! a processor of fro"en foods.
#O$er time! the costs of processing go down because as organi"ations learn how
to do things better! they become more efficient. In color film processing! for
e%ample! the cost of a 3&by&5&inch print fell from 5' cents for fi$e&day ser$ice in
1()' to 2' cents for one&day ser$ice in 1(*4. The same principle applies to the
processing of food. +nd since Olympic oods will soon celebrate its twenty&fifth
birthday! we can e%pect that our long e%perience will enable us to minimi"e costs
and thus ma%imi"e profits.,
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to
analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For
example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the
thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the
conclusion. ou can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute
the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound,
and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a downward trend in the
costs of film processing over a 24-year period, the author argues that Olympic Foods will likewise
be able to minimize costs and thus maimize profits in the future! "n support of this conclusion
the author cites the general principle that #as organizations learn how to do things better, they
become more efficient!$ %his principle, coupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 2& years
of eperience in the food processing industry leads to the author's rosy prediction! %his argument
is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws!
First, the author's forecast of minimal costs and maimum profits rests on the gratuitous
assumption that Olympic Foods' #long eperience$ has taught it how to do things better! %here is,
however, no guarantee that this is the case! (or does the author cite any evidence to support this
assumption! )ust as likely, Olympic Foods has learned nothing from its 2& years in the food-
processing business! *acking this assumption, the epectation of increased efficiency is entirely
unfounded!
+econd, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are
applicable to the food processing industry! ,ifferences between the two industries clearly
outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly less than valid! For eample, problems of
spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually
absent in the film-processing industry! -roblems such as these might present insurmountable
obstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future!
.s it stands the author's argument is not compelling! %o strengthen the conclusion that Olympic
Foods will en/oy minimal costs and maimum profits in the future, the author would have to
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provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things better as a result of its 2& years
of eperience! +upporting eamples drawn from industries more similar to the food-processing
industry would further substantiate the author's view!
2. The following appeared in a memorandum from the business department of the
+pogee .ompany.
#/hen the +pogee .ompany had all its operations in one location! it was more
profitable than it is today. Therefore! the +pogee .ompany should close down its
field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. 0uch
centrali"ation would impro$e profitability by cutting costs and helping the
company maintain better super$ision of all employees.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author concludes that the .pogee Company should close down field offices
and conduct all its operations from a single, centralized location because the company had been
more profitable in the past when all its operations were in one location! For a couple of reasons,
this argument is not very convincing!
First, the author assumes that centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and
streamlining supervision of employees! %his assumption is never supported with any data or
pro/ections! 0oreover, the assumption fails to take into account cost increases and inefficiency
that could result from centralization! For instance, company representatives would have to travel
to do business in areas formerly served by a field office, creating travel costs and loss of critical
time! "n short, this assumption must be supported with a thorough cost-benefit analysis of
centralization versus other possible cost-cutting and1or profit-enhancing strategies!
+econd, the only reason offered by the author is the claim that .pogee was more profitable when
it had operated from a single, centralized location! 2ut is centralization the only difference
relevant to greater past profitability3 "t is entirely possible that management has become la
regarding any number of factors that can affect the bottom line such as inferior products,
careless product pricing, inefficient production, poor employee epense account monitoring,
ineffective advertising, sloppy buying policies and other wasteful spending! 4nless the author can
rule out other factors relevant to diminishing profits, this argument commits the fallacy of
assuming that /ust because one event 5decreasing profits6 follows another 5decentralization6, the
second event has been caused by the first!
"n conclusion, this is a weak argument! %o strengthen the conclusion that .pogee should close field
offices and centralize, this author must provide a thorough cost-benefit analysis of available
alternatives and rule out factors other than decentralization that might be affecting current
profits negatively!
3. The following appeared in a memorandum issued by a large city1s council on the
arts.
#In a recent citywide poll! fifteen percent more residents said that they watch
tele$ision programs about the $isual arts than was the case in a poll conducted
Issue )
fi$e years ago. 2uring these past fi$e years! the number of people $isiting our
city1s art museums has increased by a similar percentage. 0ince the corporate
funding that supports public tele$ision! where most of the $isual arts programs
appear! is now being threatened with se$ere cuts! we can e%pect that attendance at
our city1s art museums will also start to decrease. Thus some of the city1s funds
for supporting the arts should be reallocated to public tele$ision.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author concludes that the city should allocate some of its arts funding to
public television! %he conclusion is based on two facts7 586 attendance at the city's art museum has
increased proportionally with the increases in visual-arts program viewing on public television, and
526 public television is being threatened by severe cuts in corporate funding! 9hile this argument
is somewhat convincing, a few concerns need to be addressed!
%o begin with, the argument depends on the assumption that increased eposure to the visual arts
on television, mainly public television, has caused a similar increase in local art-museum attendance!
:owever, /ust because increased art-museum attendance can be statistically correlated with
similar increases in television viewing of visual-arts programs, this does not necessarily mean that
the increased television viewing of arts is the cause of the rise in museum attendance!
0oreover, perhaps there are other factors relevant to increased interest in the local art museum;
for instance, maybe a new director had procured more interesting, eciting ac<uisitions and
ehibits during the period when museum attendance increased, in addition, the author could be
overlooking a common cause of both increases! "t is possible that some larger social or cultural
phenomenon is responsible for greater public interest in both television arts programming and
municipal art museums!
%o be fair, however, we must recognize that the author's assumption is a special case of a more
general one that television viewing affects people's attitudes and behavior! Common sense and
observation tell me that this is indeed the case! .fter all, advertisers spend billions of dollars on
television ad time because they trust this assumption as well!
"n conclusion, " am somewhat persuaded by this author's line of reasoning! %he argument would be
strengthened if the author were to consider and rule out other significant factors that might
have caused the increase in visits to the local art museum!
4. The following appeared in a report presented for discussion at a meeting of the
directors of a company that manufactures parts for hea$y machinery.
#The falling re$enues that the company is e%periencing coincide with delays in
manufacturing. These delays! in turn! are due in large part to poor planning in
purchasing metals. .onsider further that the manager of the department that
handles purchasing of raw materials has an e%cellent background in general
business! psychology! and sociology! but knows little about the properties of
metals. The company should! therefore! mo$e the purchasing manager to the sales
department and bring in a scientist from the research di$ision to be manager of
* Catalog
the purchasing department.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n response to a coincidence between falling revenues and delays in manufacturing, the report
recommends replacing the manager of the purchasing department! %he grounds for this action are
twofold! First, the delays are traced to poor planning in purchasing metals! +econd, the purchasing
manager's lack of knowledge of the properties of metals is thought to be the cause of the poor
planning! "t is further recommended that the position of the purchasing manager be filled by a
scientist from the research division and that the current purchasing manager be reassigned to the
sales department! "n support of this latter recommendation, the report states that the current
purchasing manager's background in general business, psychology, and sociology e<uip him for this
new assignment! %he recommendations advanced in the report are <uestionable for two reasons!
%o begin with, the report fails to establish a causal connection between the falling revenues of
the company and the delays in manufacturing! %he mere fact that falling revenues coincide with
delays in manufacturing is insufficient to conclude that the delays caused the decline in revenue!
9ithout compelling evidence to support the causal connection between these two events, the
report's recommendations are not worthy of consideration!
+econd, a central assumption of the report is that knowledge of the properties of metals is
necessary for planning in purchasing metals! (o evidence is stated in the report to support this
crucial assumption! 0oreover, it is not obvious that such knowledge would be re<uired to perform
this task! +ince planning is essentially a logistical function, it is doubtful that in-depth knowledge
of the properties of metals would be helpful in accomplishing this task!
"n conclusion, this is a weak argument! %o strengthen the recommendation that the manager of
the purchasing department be replaced, the author would have to demonstrate that the falling
revenues were a result of the delays in manufacturing! .dditionally, the author would have to show
that knowledge of the properties of metals is a prere<uisite for planning in purchasing metals!
5. The following appeared in an announcement issued by the publisher of The
3ercury! a weekly newspaper.
#0ince a competing lower&priced newspaper! The 4ugle! was started fi$e years
ago! The 3ercury1s circulation has declined by 1'!''' readers. The best way to
get more people to read The 3ercury is to reduce its price below that of The
4ugle! at least until circulation increases to former le$els. The increased
circulation of The 3ercury will attract more businesses to buy ad$ertising space
in the paper.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
. newspaper publisher is recommending that the price of its paper, %he 0ercury, be reduced
below the price of a competing newspaper, %he 2ugle! %his recommendation responds to a severe
decline in circulation of %he 0ercury during the &-year period following the introduction of %he
2ugle! %he publisher's line of reasoning is that lowering the price of %he 0ercury will increase its
readership, thereby increasing profits because a wider readership attracts more advertisers! %his
Issue (
line of reasoning is problematic in two critical respects!
9hile it is clear that increased circulation would make the paper more attractive to potential
advertisers, it is not obvious that lowering the subscription price is the most effective way to gain
new readers! %he publisher assumes that price is the only factor that caused the decline in
readership! 2ut no evidence is given to support this claim! 0oreover, given that %he 0ercury was
the established local paper, it is unlikely that such a mass eodus of its readers would be
eplained by subscription price alone!
%here are many other factors that might account for a decline in %he 0ercury's popularity! For
instance, readers might be displeased with the etent and accuracy of its news reporting, or the
balance of local to other news coverage! 0oreover, it is possible %he 0ercury has recently
changed editors, giving the paper a locally unpopular political perspective! Or perhaps readers are
unhappy with the paper's format, the timeliness of its feature articles, its comics or advice
columns, the etent and accuracy of its local event calendar, or its rate of errors!
"n conclusion, this argument is weak because it depends on an oversimplified assumption about the
causal connection between the price of the paper and its popularity! %o strengthen the argument,
the author must identify and eplore relevant factors beyond cost before concluding that
lowering subscription prices will increase circulation and, thereby, increase advertising revenues!
-. The following appeared as part of an article in a maga"ine de$oted to regional life.
#.orporations should look to the city of 5elios when seeking new business
opportunities or a new location. 6$en in the recent recession! 5elios1s
unemployment rate was lower than the regional a$erage. It is the industrial center
of the region! and historically it has pro$ided more than its share of the region1s
manufacturing 7obs. In addition! 5elios is attempting to e%pand its economic base
by attracting companies that focus on research and de$elopment of inno$ati$e
technologies.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument corporations are urged to consider the city of :elios when seeking a new location
or new business opportunities! %o support this recommendation, the author points out that :elios
is the industrial center of the region, providing most of the region's manufacturing /obs and
en/oying a lower-than-average unemployment rate! 0oreover, it is argued, efforts are currently
underway to epand the economic base of the city by attracting companies that focus on research
and development of innovative technologies! %his argument is problematic for two reasons!
%o begin with, it is <uestionable whether the available labor pool in :elios could support all types
of corporations! =iven that :elios has attracted mainly industrial and manufacturing companies in
the past, it is unlikely that the local pool of prospective employees would be suitable for
corporations of other types! For eample, the needs of research and development companies would
not be met by a labor force trained in manufacturing skills! For this reason, it's unlikely that
:elios will be successful in its attempt to attract companies that focus or research and
development of innovative technologies!
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.nother problem with the available work force is its size! ,ue to the lower than average
unemployment rate in :elios, corporations that re<uire large numbers of workers would not find
:elios attractive! %he fact that few persons are out of work suggests that new corporations will
have to either attract new workers to :elios or pay the eisting workers higher wages in order to
lure them away from their current /obs! (either of these alternatives seems enticing to
companies seeking to relocate!
"n conclusion, the author has not succeeded in providing compelling reasons for selecting :elios as
the site for a company wishing to relocate! "n fact, the reasons offered function better as
reasons for not relocating to :elios! (or has the author provided compelling reasons for
companies seeking new business opportunities to choose :elios!
). The following appeared in the health section of a maga"ine on trends and lifestyles.
#8eople who use the artificial sweetener aspartame are better off consuming
sugar! since aspartame can actually contribute to weight gain rather than weight
loss. or e%ample! high le$els of aspartame ha$e been shown to trigger a cra$ing
for food by depleting the brain of a chemical that registers satiety! or the sense of
being full. urthermore! studies suggest that sugars! if consumed after at least 45
minutes of continuous e%ercise! actually enhance the body1s ability to burn fat.
.onse9uently! those who drink aspartame&sweetened 7uices after e%ercise will
also lose this calorie&burning benefit. Thus it appears that people consuming
aspartame rather than sugar are unlikely to achie$e their dietary goals.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author concludes that people trying to lose weight are better off consuming
sugar than the artificial sweetener aspartame! %o support this conclusion the author argues that
aspartame can cause weight gain by triggering food cravings, whereas sugar actually enhances the
body's ability to burn fat! (either of these reasons provides sufficient support for the conclusion!
%he first reason that aspartame encourages food cravings is supported by research findings that
high levels of aspartame deplete the brain chemical responsible for registering a sense of being
sated, or full! 2ut the author's generalization based on this research is unreliable! %he research
was based on a sample in which large amounts of aspartame were administered; however, the
author applies the research findings to a target population that includes all aspartame users, many
of whom would probably not consume high levels of the artificial sweetener!
%he second reason that sugar enhances the body's ability to burn fat is based on the studies in
which eperimental groups, whose members consumed sugar after at least 4& minutes of
continuous eercise, showed increased rates of fat burning! %he author's general claim, however,
applies to all dieters who use sugar instead of aspartame, not /ust to those who use sugar after
long periods of eercise! Once again, the author's generalization is unreliable because it is based
on a sample that clearly does not represent all dieters!
%o conclude, each of the studies cited by the author bases its findings on evidence that does not
represent dieters in general; for this reason, neither premise of this argument is a reliable
Issue 11
generalization! Conse<uently, " am not convinced that dieters are better off consuming sugar
instead of aspartame!
*. The following appeared in the editorial section of a corporate newsletter.
#The common notion that workers are generally apathetic about management
issues is false! or at least outdated: a recently published sur$ey indicates that )(
percent of the nearly 1!2'' workers who responded to sur$ey 9uestionnaires
e%pressed a high le$el of interest in the topics of corporate restructuring and
redesign of benefits programs.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
2ased upon a survey among workers that indicates a high level of interest in the topics of
corporate restructuring and redesign of benefits programs, the author concludes that workers
are not apathetic about management issues! +pecifically, it is argued that since >? percent of the
82@@ workers who responded to survey epressed interest in these topics, the notion that
workers are apathetic about management issues is incorrect! %he reasoning in this argument is
problematic in several respects!
First, the statistics cited in the editorial may be misleading because the total number of workers
employed by the corporation is not specified! For eample, if the corporation employs 2@@@
workers, the fact that >? percent of the nearly 82@@ respondents showed interest in these topics
provides strong support for the conclusion! On the other hand, if the corporation employs 2@@,@@@
workers, the conclusion is much weaker!
.nother problem with the argument is that the respondents' views are not necessarily
representative of the views of the work force in general! For eample, because the survey has to
do with apathy, it makes sense that only less apathetic workers would respond to it, thereby
distorting the overall picture of apathy among the work force! 9ithout knowing how the survey
was conducted, it is impossible to assess whether or not this is the case!
. third problem with the argument is that it makes a hasty generalization about the types of
issues workers are interested in! "t accords with common sense that workers would be interested
in corporate restructuring and redesign of benefits programs, since these issues affect workers
very directly! :owever, it is unfair to assume that workers would be similarly interested in other
management issuesAones that do not affect them or affect them less directly!
"n conclusion, this argument is not convincing as it stands! %o strengthen it, the author would have
to show that the respondents account for a significant and representative portion of all workers!
.dditionally, the author must provide evidence of workers' interest other management topicsAnot
/ust those that affect workers directly!
(. The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial maga"ine.
#On a$erage! middle&aged consumers de$ote 3( percent of their retail e%penditure
to department store products and ser$ices! while for younger consumers the
a$erage is only 25 percent. 0ince the number of middle&aged people will increase
12 Catalog
dramatically within the ne%t decade! department stores can e%pect retail sales to
increase significantly during that period. urthermore! to take ad$antage of the
trend! these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to
attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle&aged
consumer.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
Sample essay 1:
%he argument that department retail sales will increase in the net 8@ years and thus department
stores should begin to replace products to attract middle-aged consumers is not entirely logically
convincing, since it omits certain crucial assumptions
First of all, the argument ignores the absolute amount of retail ependiture of middle-aged and
younger consumers devoted to department store products and services! .lthough younger
consumers spend a smaller percentage of their retail ependiture to department store products
than do the middle-aged consumers, they might actually spend more in terms of the absolute
amount!
Bven if middle-aged consumers are spending more than younger ones in department stores, the
argument ignores the possibility that the trend may change within the net decade! Counger
consumers might prefer to shop in department stores than in other types of stores, and middle-
aged consumers might turn to other types of stores, too! %his will lead to a higher ependiture of
younger consumers in department stores than that of middle-aged consumers!
2esides, the argument never addresses the population difference between middle-aged consumers
and younger ones! +uppose there are more younger consumers than the middle-aged ones now, the
total population base of younger consumers will be bigger than that of the middle-aged ones if
both of them grow at the same rate in the net decade! %hus there will be a bigger younger
consumer base!
2ased on the reasons " listed above, the argument is not completely sound! %he evidence in
support of the conclusion does little to prove the conclusion since it does not address the
assumptions " have already raised! 4ltimately, the argument might have been more convincing by
making it clear that the absolute population of middle-aged consumers are higher than that of the
younger consumers and the number will continue to grow in the net decade, and that the middle-
aged consumers will continue to spend more money in department stores than younger consumers
do in the net decade!
Sample essay 2:
%he argument that retailers should replace some of the products intended to attract the younger
consumers with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumers is not entirely logically
convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions!
First, the argument omits the assumption that the business volumes of both the middle-aged
consumers and the younger consumers are the same! "f the business volume of the middle-aged
consumers' D?E is smaller than that of the younger consumers' 2&E, the retail sales will not
Issue 13
increase during the net decade!
+econd, even if the business volumes of both the middle-aged consumers and the younger
consumers were the same in the last decade, the increase of the middle-aged people in the net
decade is not the same as the increase of the retail ependiture, for the retail trade depends
more on such factors as the economic circumstances, people's consuming desire!
Finally, the argument never assumes the increase of the younger consumers within the net
decade! "f the younger consumers increase at the same rate and spend the same amount of money
on the goods and services of department stores, the retailers should never ignore them!
%hus the argument is not completely sound! %he evidence in support of the conclusion that the
growing number of middle-aged people within the net decade does little to prove the conclusionA
that department stores should begin to replace some of their products to attract the middle-aged
consumers since it does not address the assumptions " have already raised! 4ltimately, the
argument might have been strengthened by making it clear that the business volumes of both
types of consumers are the same and comparable, that the increase of a certain type of
consumers are correlated with the increase of the retail sales, and that the growth rate of the
younger consumers are the same as that of the middle-aged consumers!
Sample essay 3:
2ased on an epected increase in the number of middle-aged people during the net decade, the
author predicts that retail sales at department stores will increase significantly over the net ten
years! %o bolster this prediction, the author cites statistics showing that middle-aged people
devote a much higher percentage of their retail ependiture to department-store services and
products than younger consumers do! +ince the number of middle-aged consumers is on the rise
and since they spend more than younger people on department-store goods and services, the
author further recommends that department stores begin to ad/ust their inventories to capitalize
on this trend! +pecifically, it is recommended that department stores increase their inventory of
products aimed at middle-aged consumers and decrease their inventory of products aimed at
younger consumers! %his argument is problematic for two reasons!
First, an increase in the number of middle-aged people does not necessarily portend an overall
increase in department-store sales! "t does so only on the assumption that other population groups
will remain relatively constant! For eample, if the epected increase in the number of middle-
aged people is offset by an e<ually significant decrease in the number of younger people, there will
be little or no net gain in sales!
+econd, in recommending that department stores replace products intended to attract younger
consumers with products more suitable to middle-aged consumers, the author assumes that the
number of younger consumers will not also increase! +ince a sizable increase in the population of
younger consumers could conceivably offset the difference in the retail ependiture patterns of
younger and middle-aged consumers, it would be unwise to make the recommended inventory
ad/ustment lacking evidence to support this assumption!
"n conclusion, this argument is unacceptable! %o strengthen the argument the author would have
to provide evidence that the population of younger consumers will remain relatively constant over
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the net decade!
1'. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
#This past winter! 2'' students from /aymarsh 0tate .ollege tra$eled to the state
capitol building to protest against proposed cuts in funding for $arious state
college programs. The other 12!''' /aymarsh students e$idently weren1t so
concerned about their education: they either stayed on campus or left for winter
break. 0ince the group who did not protest is far more numerous! it is more
representati$e of the state1s college students than are the protesters. Therefore the
state legislature need not heed the appeals of the protesting students.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he conclusion in this argument is that the state legislature need not consider the views of
protesting students! %o support this conclusion, the author points out that only 2@@ of the 82,@@@
students traveled to the state capitol to voice their concerns about proposed cuts in college
programs! +ince the remaining students did not take part in this protest, the author concludes
they are not interested in this issue! %he reasoning in this argument is flawed for two reasons!
First, the author assumes that because only one-tenth of the students took part in the protest,
these students' views are unrepresentative of the entire student body! %his assumption is
unwarranted! "f it turns out, for eample, that the protesting students were randomly selected
from the entire student body, their views would reflect the views of the entire college! 9ithout
information regarding the way in which the protesting students were selected, it is presumptuous
to conclude that their opinions fail to reflect the opinions of their colleagues!
+econd, the author cites the fact that the remaining 82,@@@ students stayed on campus or left
for winter break as evidence that they are not concerned about their education! One obvious
re/oinder to this line of reasoning is that the students who did not participate did so with the
knowledge that their concerns would be epressed by the protesting students! "n any case, the
author has failed to demonstrate a logical connection between the students' alleged lack of
concern and the fact that they either stayed on campus or left for winter break! 9ithout this
connection, the conclusion reached by the author that the remaining 82,@@@ students are not
concerned about their education is unacceptable!
.s it stands, the argument is not well reasoned! %o make it logically acceptable, the author would
have to demonstrate that the protesting students had some characteristic in common that biases
their views, thereby nullifying their protest as representative of the entire college!
11. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
#In the first four years that 3ontoya has ser$ed as mayor of the city of 0an
8erdito! the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased.
Two businesses ha$e closed for each new business that has opened. ;nder <arro!
who ser$ed as mayor for four years before 3ontoya! the unemployment rate
decreased and the population increased. .learly! the residents of 0an 8erdito
would be best ser$ed if they $oted 3ontoya out of office and reelected <arro.,
Issue 15
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he recommendation endorsed in this argument is that residents of +an -erdito vote current
mayor 0ontoya out of office, and re-elect former mayor Farro! %he reasons cited are that during
0ontoya's four years in office the population has decreased while unemployment has increased,
whereas during Farro's term unemployment declined while the population grew! %his argument
involves the sort of gross oversimplification and emotional appeal typical of political rhetoric; for
this reason it is unconvincing!
First of all, the author assumes that the 0ontoya administration caused the unemployment in +an
-erdito as well as its population loss! %he line of reasoning is that because 0ontoya was elected
before the rise in unemployment and the decline in population, the former event caused the latter!
2ut this is fallacious reasoning unless other possible causal eplanations have been considered and
ruled out! For eample, perhaps a statewide or nationwide recession is the cause of these events!
Or perhaps the current economic downturn is part of a larger picture of economic cycles and
trends, and has nothing to do with who happens to be mayor! Cet another possibility is that Farro
en/oyed a period of economic stability and Farro's own administration set the stage for the
unemployment and the decline in population the city is now eperiencing under 0ontoya!
+econdly, /ob availability and the economic health of one's community are issues that affect
people emotionally! %he argument at hand might have been intentionally oversimplified for the
specific purpose of angering citizens of +an -erdito, and thereby turning them against the
incumbent mayor! .rguments that bypass relevant, comple reasoning in favor of stirring up
emotions do nothing to establish their conclusions; they are also unfair to the parties involved!
"n conclusion, " would not cast my vote for Farro on the basis of this weak argument! %he author
must provide support for the assumption that 0ayor 0ontoya has caused +an -erdito's poor
economy! 0oreover, such support would have to involve eamining and eliminating other possible
causal factors! Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than /ust an
emotional appeal!
12. The following appeared as part of a promotional campaign to sell ad$ertising
space in the 2aily =a"ette to grocery stores in the 3arston area.
#+d$ertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the 2aily =a"ette will
help you increase your sales. .onsider the results of a study conducted last
month. Thirty sale items from a store in downtown 3arston were ad$ertised in
the =a"ette for four days. 6ach time one or more of the 3' items was purchased!
clerks asked whether the shopper had read the ad. Two&thirds of the 2'' shoppers
asked answered in the affirmati$e. urthermore! more than half the customers
who answered in the affirmati$e spent o$er >1'' at the store.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he conclusion of this argument is that advertising the reduced price of selected items in the
,aily =azette will result in increased sales overall! %o support it, the author cites an informal poll
conducted by sales clerks when customers purchased advertised items! Bach time one or more of
1- Catalog
the advertised items was sold, the clerks asked whether the customer had read the ad! "t turned
out that two-thirds of 2@@ shoppers <uestioned said that they had read the ad! "n addition, of
those who reported reading the ad, more than half spent over G8@@ in the store! %his argument is
unconvincing for two reasons!
%o begin with, the author's line of reasoning is that the advertisement was the cause of the
purchase of the sale items! :owever, while the poll establishes a correlation between reading the
ad and purchasing sale items, and also indicates a correlation, though less significantly, between
reading the ad and buying non-sale items, it does not establish a general causal relationship
between these events! %o establish this relationship, other factors that could bring about this
result must be considered and eliminated! For eample, if the four days during which the poll was
conducted preceded %hanksgiving and the advertised items were traditionally associated with this
holiday, then the results of the poll would be etremely biased and unreliable!
0oreover, the author assumes that the poll indicates that advertising certain sale will cause a
general increase in sales! 2ut the poll does not even address the issue of increased overall sales; it
informs us mainly that, of the people who purchased sales items, more had read the ad than not! .
much clearer indicator of the ad's effectiveness would be a comparison of overall sales on days
the ad ran with overall sales on otherwise similar days when the ad did not run!
"n sum, this argument is defective mainly because the poll does not support the conclusion that
sales in general will increase when reduced-price products are advertised in the ,aily =azette! %o
strengthen the argument, the author must, at the very least, provide comparisons of overall sales
reports as described above!
13. The following appeared as part of a campaign to sell ad$ertising time on a local
radio station to local businesses.
#The .um9uat .afe began ad$ertising on our local radio station this year and was
delighted to see its business increase by 1' percent o$er last year1s totals. Their
success shows you how you can use radio ad$ertising to make your business
more profitable.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n an attempt to sell radio advertising time, this ad claims that radio advertising will make
businesses more profitable! %he evidence cited is a ten percent increase in business that the
Cum<uat Cafe has eperienced in the year during which it advertised on the local radio station!
%his argument is unconvincing because two <uestionable assumptions must be made for the stated
evidence to support the author's conclusion!
%he first assumption is that radio advertising alone has caused the increase in business at the
Cum<uat Cafe! %his assumption is <uestionable because it overlooks a number of other factors
that might have contributed to the Cum<uat's success! For eample, the Cum<uat might have
changed owners or chefs; it might have launched a coupon ad campaign in the local print media; or
it might have changed or updated the menu! Cet another possibility is that a local competitor went
out of business! %hese are /ust a few of the factors that could help eplain the Cum<uat's growth!
Issue 1)
2ecause the author fails to eliminate these possibilities, the assumption in <uestion need not be
accepted!
Bven if it is granted that radio advertising is responsible for the Cum<uat's success, another
assumption must be made before we can conclude that radio advertising will result in increased
profits for businesses in general! 9e must also assume that what is true of the Cum<uat will
likewise be true of most other businesses! 2ut there are all kinds of important differences
between cafes and other businesses that could affect how radio audiences react to their
advertising! 9e cannot safely assume that because a small restaurant has benefited from radio
advertising, any and all local businesses will similarly benefit!
"n conclusion, it would be imprudent for a business to invest in radio advertising solely on the basis
of the evidence presented! %o strengthen the conclusion, it must be established that radio
advertising was the principal cause of increased business at the Cum<uat! Once this is shown, it
must be determined that the business in <uestion is sufficiently like the Cum<uat, and so can
epect similar returns from investment in radio ad time!
14. The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial.
#Two years ago ?o$a 5igh 0chool began to use interacti$e computer instruction
in three academic sub7ects. The school dropout rate declined immediately! and
last year1s graduates ha$e reported some impressi$e achie$ements in college. In
future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the a$ailable funds
to buy more computers! and all schools in the district should adopt interacti$e
computer instruction throughout the curriculum.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
Sample essay 1:
%he argument that the school board should buy more computers and adopt interactive computer
instruction is not entirely logically convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions!
First, the argument assumes that the decline of school dropout and the achievements of last
year's graduates' results from the adoption of interactive computer instruction! :owever, there
are several reasons why this might not be true! For eample, achievements could have been made
in other sub/ects than the ones with interactive computer instruction! Or last years' graduates
might not have been given the interactive computer instruction! Or the decline of the rate of
dropout could be attributed to stricter discipline applied last year!
+econd, even supposing the (ova :igh +chool's decline of the dropout and last year's graduates'
achievements benefit directly from the usage of interactive computer instruction, the success of
the instruction in one school may not ensure the success in other schools! "f it does not suit other
schools, the instruction will not work!
Finally, even if the decline of the rate of dropout and the achievements of the last year's
graduates' are the direct results of the interactive computer instruction, we still do not know
whether the school can afford to apply the instruction on all the sub/ects or to all the students!
1* Catalog
"f the school does not have sufficient fund and has to cut budgets on other pro/ects such as the
library, the <uality of the school's education will also compromise!
%hus, the argument is not completely sound! %he evidence in support of the conclusion that the
dropout rate declined and last year's graduates made impressive achievements does little to prove
the conclusion that other schools should use a greater portion of their funds to apply the
instruction since it does not address the assumptions " have already raised! 4ltimately, the
argument might have been strengthened by making it clear that the decline of the dropout rate
and the achievements of the graduates are the direct results of interactive computer instruction,
that the instruction is also applicable to other schools in the district, and that the instruction is
affordable to all the schools in the district!
Sample essay 2:
%he editorial recommends that the school board of (ova :igh spend a greater portion of available
funds on the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction
throughout the curriculum! %wo reasons are offered in support of this recommendation! First, the
introduction of interactive computer instruction in three academic sub/ects was immediately
followed by a decline in the school dropout rate! +econd, last year's graduates eperienced
impressive achievements in college! %his argument is unconvincing for two reasons!
%o begin with, this argument is a classic instance of #after this, therefore because of this$
reasoning! %he mere fact that the introduction of interactive computer instruction preceded the
impressive performance of recent graduates and the decline in the dropout rate is insufficient to
conclude that it was the cause of these events! 0any other factors could bring about these same
results! For eample, the school may have implemented counseling and training programs that
better meet the needs of students who might otherwise leave school to take /obs! "n addition, the
school may have introduced programs to better prepare students for college!
+econdly, the author assumes that the impressive achievements of last year's graduates bear
some relation to the introduction of interactive computer instruction at (ova :igh! :owever, no
evidence is offered to support this assumption! *acking evidence that links the achievements of
the recent graduates to the interactive instruction, it is presumptuous to suggest that the
computer instruction was in some way responsible for the students' impressive performance!
"n conclusion, the recommendation that (ova :igh spend a greater portion of available funds on
the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the
curriculum is ill-founded! %o strengthen this recommendation the author would have to
demonstrate that the decline in the dropout rate and the impressive performance of recent
graduates came about as a result of the use of computer-interactive instruction! .ll that has been
shown so far is a correlation between these events!
15. The following appeared as a part of an ad$ertisement for +dams! who is seeking
reelection as go$ernor.
#@e&elect +dams! and you will be $oting for pro$en leadership in impro$ing the
state1s economy. O$er the past year alone! se$enty percent of the state1s workers
Issue 1(
ha$e had increases in their wages! fi$e thousand new 7obs ha$e been created! and
si% corporations ha$e located their head9uarters here. 3ost of the respondents in
a recent poll said they belie$ed that the economy is likely to continue to impro$e
if +dams is reelected. +dams1s opponent! Aebulon! would lead our state in the
wrong direction! because Aebulon disagrees with many of +dams1s economic
policies.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his political advertisement recommends re-electing =overnor .dams because he has a proven
leadership role in improving the state's economy! "n support of this reason the author cites these
statistics7 in the past year, most state workers' wages have gone up; &,@@@ new /obs have been
created; and si corporations have located in the state! .nother reason offered for re-electing
.dams is a recent poll, which indicates that most respondents believe the state economy would
continue to improve if he were re-elected! Finally, the author claims that rival Hebulon would harm
the state's economy because he disagrees with .dams' fiscal policies! %his argument is fraught
with vague, oversimplified and unwarranted claims!
%o begin with, the statistics are intended to support the main claim that the state is economically
better off with .dams as governor! 2ut these statistics are vague and oversimplified, and thus
may distort the state's overall economic picture! For eample, state workers' pay raises may have
been minuscule and may not have kept up with cost of living or with pay for state workers in other
states! 0oreover, the &,@@@ new /obs may have been too few to bring state unemployment rates
down significantly; at the same time, many /obs may have been lost! Finally, the poll indicates that
si new corporations located in the state, but fails to indicate if any left!
(et, the poll cited by the author is described in the vaguest possible terms! %he ad does not
indicate who conducted the poll, who responded, or how the poll was conducted! 4ntil these
<uestions are answered, the survey results are worthless as evidence for public opinion about
.dams or his economic policies!
Finally, while we have only vague and possibly distorted evidence that the state is better off with
.dams, we have absolutely no evidence that it would be worse off with Hebulon! =iven that the
state economy is good at the moment, none of the author's reasons establishes that .dams is the
cause of this! .nd neither do they establish that the state wouldn't be even better off with
someone else in office!
"n conclusion, this argument is weak! %o strengthen the argument, the author must provide
additional information about the ade<uacy of state workers' pay raises, the effect of the &,@@@
/obs on the state's employment picture, the overall growth of corporations in the state, and other
features of the state economy! .lso, the author must support the claims that .dams' actions have
caused any economic improvement and that in the future .dams will impart more economic benefit
than would Hebulon!
1-. The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a
/aymarsh .ity newspaper.
2' Catalog
#Throughout the last two decades! those who earned graduate degrees found it
$ery difficult to get 7obs teaching their academic specialties at the college le$el.
Those with graduate degrees from /aymarsh ;ni$ersity had an especially hard
time finding such 7obs. 4ut better times are coming in the ne%t decade for all
academic 7ob seekers! including those from /aymarsh. 2emographic trends
indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age o$er the
ne%t ten yearsB conse9uently! we can e%pect that the 7ob market will impro$e
dramatically for people seeking college&le$el teaching positions in their fields.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
,emographic trends that indicate an increase in the number of college-aged people over the net
ten years lead the author to predict an improved /ob market for all people seeking college-level
teaching positions in their academic disciplines! 0oreover, the author argues that since 9aymarsh
4niversity students with advanced degrees had an especially difficult time finding teaching /obs in
the past, these trends portend better times ahead for 9aymarsh graduates! %his argument is
problematic in three important respects!
First, the author assumes that an increase in the number of college-aged people over the net
decade will necessarily result in an increase in the number of people who attend college during this
period! 9hile this is a reasonable assumption, it is by no means a certainty! For eample, a world
war or economic depression in the net decade would certainly nullify this epectation!
+econd, even if we grant the preceding assumption, we must also consider the additional
assumption that increased university enrollments will lead to an increase in teaching positions in all
fields! :owever, it might turn out that some teaching specialties are in greater demand than
others in the future, resulting in a disproportionate number of teaching positions available in
various fields! Conse<uently, persons trained in some fields might find it more difficult, if not
impossible, to find teaching /obs in the future!
Finally, little can be foretold regarding the employability of 9aymarsh graduates in the future
based on the information provided in the argument! *acking information about the reasons why
9aymarsh graduates had an especially difficult time finding teaching /obs, it is difficult to assess
their prospects for the future! "t is probable, however, that since 9aymarsh has had an
especially hard time placing graduates in the past, the mere fact that more /obs are available will
not, by itself, ensure that 9aymarsh graduates will have an easier time finding teaching /obs
during the net decade!
"n conclusion, this argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument, the author must provide
evidence that the only ma/or trend in the net decade will be an increase in the number of people
reaching college age! Iegarding the future prospects for 9aymarsh graduates, the author must
provide evidence that there were no idiosyncratic reasons that prevented them from finding /obs
in the past!
1). The following appeared in an article in a consumer&products maga"ine.
#Two of today1s best&selling brands of full&strength prescription medication for
Issue 21
the relief of e%cess stomach acid! +cid&6ase and 8epticaid! are now a$ailable in
milder nonprescription forms. 2octors ha$e written )- million more prescriptions
for full&strength +cid&6ase than for full&strength 8epticaid. 0o people who need
an effecti$e but milder nonprescription medication for the relief of e%cess
stomach acid should choose +cid&6ase.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his ad recommends non-prescription .cid-Base over non-prescription -epticaid for relief of
ecess stomach acid! %he only reason offered is that doctors have written >J million more
prescriptions for the full-strength prescription form of .cid-Base than for full-strength
-epticaid! 9hile this reason is relevant, and provides some grounds for preferring .cid-Base over
-epticaid, it is insufficient as it stands because it depends on three unwarranted assumptions!
%he first assumption is that the prescription form of .cid-Base is more popular among doctors!
2ut this might not be the case, even though doctors have written >J million more prescriptions for
.cid-Base! .cid-Base may have been available for several more years than -epticaid; and in the
years when both products were available, -epticaid might have actually been prescribed more
often than .cid-Base!
%he second assumption is that doctors prefer the prescription form of .cid-Base for the reason
that it is in fact more effective at relieving ecess stomach acid! :owever, doctors may have
preferred .cid-Base for reasons other than its effectiveness! -erhaps .cid-Base is produced by a
larger, more familiar drug company or by one that distributes more free samples! For that matter,
the medical community may have simply been mistaken in thinking that .cid-Base was more
effective! "n short, the number of prescriptions by itself is not conclusive as to whether one
product is actually better than another!
%he third assumption is that the milder non-prescription forms of .cid-Base and -epticaid will be
analogous to the full-strength prescription forms of each! 2ut this might not be the case! +uppose
for the moment that the greater effectiveness of prescription .cid-Base has been established;
even so, the non-prescription form might not measure up to non-prescription -epticaid! %his fact
must be established independently!
"n conclusion, this ad does not provide enough support for its recommending non-prescription
.cid-Base over non-prescription -epticaid! %o strengthen its argument, the promoter of .cid-Base
would have to show that 586 the comparison between the number of prescriptions is based on the
same time period; 526 its effectiveness is the main reason more doctors have prescribed it, and 5D6
the comparative effectiveness of the two non-prescription forms is analogous to that of the
prescription forms!
1*. The following is an e%cerpt from a memo written by the head of a go$ernmental
department.
#?either stronger ethics regulations nor stronger enforcement mechanisms are
necessary to ensure ethical beha$ior by companies doing business with this
department. /e already ha$e a code of ethics that companies doing business with
22 Catalog
this department are urged to abide by! and $irtually all of these companies ha$e
agreed to follow it. /e also know that the code is rele$ant to the current business
en$ironment because it was appro$ed within the last year! and in direct response
to specific $iolations committed by companies with which we were then working
Cnot in abstract anticipation of potential $iolations! as so many such codes are.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument, the head of a government department concludes that the department does not
need to strengthen either its ethics regulations or its enforcement mechanisms in order to
encourage ethical behavior by companies with which it does business! %he first reason given is
that businesses have agreed to follow the department's eisting code of ethics! %he second reason
is that the eisting code is relevant to the current business environment! %his argument is
unacceptable for several reasons!
%he sole support for the claim that stronger enforcement mechanisms are unnecessary comes
from the assumption that companies will simply keep their promises to follow the eisting code!
2ut, since the department head clearly refers to rules violations by these same businesses within
the past year, his faith in their word is obviously misplaced! 0oreover, it is commonly understood
that effective rules carry with them methods of enforcement and penalties for violations!
%o show that a strengthened code is unnecessary, the department head claims that the eisting
code of ethics is relevant! "n partial clarification of the vague term #relevant,$ we are told that
the eisting code was approved in direct response to violations occurring in the past year! "f the
full significance of being relevant is that the code responds to last year's violations, then the
department head must assume that those violations will be representative of all the kinds of
ethics problems that concern the department! %his is unlikely; in addition, thinking so produces an
oddly short-sighted idea of relevance!
+uch a narrow conception of the relevance of an ethics code points up its weakness! %he strength
of an ethics code lies in its capacity to cover many different instances of the general kinds of
behavior thought to be unethicalAto cover not only last year's specific violations, but those of
previous years and years to come! Cet this author eplicitly re/ects a comprehensive code,
preferring the eisting code because it is #relevant$ and #not in abstract anticipation of potential
violations!$
"n sum, this argument is naive, vague and poorly reasoned! %he department head has not given
careful thought to the connection between rules and their enforcement, to what makes an ethics
code relevant, or to how comprehensiveness strengthens a code! "n the final analysis, he adopts a
backwards view that a history of violations should determine rules of ethics, rather than the
other way around!
1(. The following appeared as part of an article in the tra$el section of a newspaper.
#O$er the past decade! the restaurant industry in the country of 0piessa has
e%perienced unprecedented growth. This surge can be e%pected to continue in the
coming years! fueled by recent social changes: personal incomes are rising! more
Issue 23
leisure time is a$ailable! single&person households are more common! and people
ha$e a greater interest in gourmet food! as e$idenced by a proliferation of
publications on the sub7ect.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
Iecent social changes in the country of +piessa lead the author to predict a continued surge in
growth of that country's restaurant industry! Iising personal incomes, additional leisure time, an
increase in single-person households, and greater interest in gourmet food are cited as the main
reasons for this optimistic outlook! .ll of these factors are indeed relevant to growth in the
restaurant industry; so the prediction appears reasonable on its face! :owever, three <uestionable
assumptions operative in this argument bear close eamination!
%he first dubious assumption is that the supply of restaurants in +piessa will continue to grow at
the same rate as in the recent past! :owever, even in the most favorable conditions and the best
of economic times there are /ust so many restaurants that a given population can accommodate
and sustain! "t is possible that the demand for restaurants has already been met by the
unprecedented growth of the past decade, in which case the recent social changes will have little
impact on the growth of the restaurant industry!
. second assumption is that the economic and social circumstances cited by the author will
actually result in more people eating out at restaurants! %his assumption is unwarranted, however!
For eample, increased leisure time may /ust as likely result in more people spending more time
cooking gourmet meals in their own homes! .lso, single people may actually be more likely than
married people to eat at home than to go out for meals! Finally, people may choose to spend their
additional income in other waysAon epensive cars, travel, or larger homes!
. third poor assumption is that, even assuming people in +piessa will choose to spend more time
and money eating out, no etrinsic factors will stifle this demand! %his assumption is unwarranted!
.ny number of etrinsic factorsAsuch as a downturn in the general economy or significant layoffs
at +piessa's largest businessesAmay stall the current restaurant surge! 0oreover, the argument
fails to specify the #social changes$ that have led to the current economic boom! "f it turns out
these changes are politically driven, then the surge may very well reverse if political power
changes hands!
"n conclusion, this argument unfairly assumes a predictable future course for both supply and
demand! %o strengthen the argument, the author must at the very least show that demand for new
restaurants has not yet been ehausted, that +piessa can accommodate new restaurants well into
the future, and that the people of +piessa actually want to eat out more!
2'. The following appeared in an article in a health and fitness maga"ine.
#Daboratory studies show that 0aluda ?atural 0pring /ater contains se$eral of
the minerals necessary for good health and that it is completely free of bacteria.
@esidents of 0aluda! the small town where the water is bottled! are hospitali"ed
less fre9uently than the national a$erage. 6$en though 0aluda ?atural 0pring
/ater may seem e%pensi$e! drinking it instead of tap water is a wise in$estment
24 Catalog
in good health.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
Sample essay 1:
%he argument that drinking +aluda (atural +pring 9ater instead of tap water is a wise
investment in good health is not entirely logically convincing, since it lacks certain supporting
factors!
Firstly, the argument assumes that +aluda (atural +pring 9ater is the ma/or reason why
residents of +aluda are less fre<uently hospitalized than the national average! :owever, there is
little evidence that this water is the only difference between this place and the rest of the
country! .nd the reason why people in other places are more hospitalized are numerous and varied!
%here are so many other factors that would bring people in other places to hospitals, such as
accidents, food contamination, illnesses, etc!
+econdly, the argument also assumes that the minerals in +aluda (ational +pring 9ater are the
key minerals for the good health of the residents of +aluda! :owever, this may not be true! 9e
need not only minerals to keep good heath but also various vitamins! 2esides, our body needs more
minerals than those contained in +aluda (atural +pring 9ater!
Finally, even if the +aluda water is the ma/or reason why the residents of +aluda are less
hospitalized, the argument still omits the fact that there is more than one way to keep drinking
water free from bacteria! For instance, the most common practice is to boil water up to 8@@
degree Celsius and keep it at that degree for more than & minutes! %herefore drinking +aluda
water to keep good health is not the only alternative!
%hus, the argument is not completely sound! %he evidence in support of the conclusion that the
+aluda residents are less hospitalized does little to prove the conclusion that drinking +aluda
(atural +pring 9ater is a wise investment in good health since it omits the assumptions " have
/ust raised! %he argument might have been strengthened by making it plain that +aluda (atural
+pring 9ater is the ma/or reason why the residents of +aluda are less hospitalized, that the
water contains all the ma/or minerals essential for the human body, and that there is no other way
to keep water from bacteria!
Sample essay 2:
"n this argument the author concludes that drinking +aluda (atural +pring 9ater 5+(+96 is
preferable to drinking tap water! %hree reasons are offered in support of this conclusion7 +(+9
contains several of the minerals necessary for good health, it is completely tree of bacteria, and
residents of +aludaAthe town where it is bottledAare hospitalized less fre<uently than the
national average! %his argument is unconvincing because it relies on a variety of dubious
assumptions!
%he first <uestionable assumption underlying this argument that tap water does not contain the
minerals in <uestion and is not completely free of bacteria! %his assumption is not supported in the
argument! "f tap water is found to contain the same minerals and to be free of bacteria, the
author's conclusion is substantially undermined!
Issue 25
. second assumption of the argument is that the water residents of +aluda drink is the same as
+(+9! *acking evidence to the contrary, it is possible that +aluda is not the source of the
bottled water but is merely the place where +(+9 is bottled! (o evidence is offered in the
argument to dispute this possibility!
Finally, it is assumed without argument that the reason residents are hospitalized less fre<uently
than the national average is that they drink +(+9! .gain, no evidence is offered to support this
assumption! -erhaps the residents are hospitalized less fre<uently because they are younger than
the national average, because they are all vegetarians, or because they eercise daily! %hat is,
there might be other reasons than the one cited to account for this disparity!
"n conclusion, this is an unconvincing argument! %o strengthen the conclusion that +(+9 is more
healthful than tap water, the author must provide evidence that tap water contains harmful
bacteria not found in +(+9! 0oreover, the author must demonstrate that the residents of
+aluda regularly drink the same water as +(+9 and that this is why they are hospitalized less
fre<uently than the national average!
21. The following appeared as part of an editorial in an industry newsletter.
#/hile trucking companies that deli$er goods pay only a portion of highway
maintenance costs and no property ta% on the highways they use! railways spend
billions per year maintaining and upgrading their facilities. The go$ernment
should lower the railroad companies1 property ta%es! since sending goods by rail
is clearly a more appropriate mode of ground transportation than highway
shipping. or one thing! trains consume only a third of the fuel a truck would use
to carry the same load! making them a more cost&effecti$e and en$ironmentally
sound mode of transport. urthermore! since rail lines already e%ist! increases in
rail traffic would not re9uire building new lines at the e%pense of ta%paying
citi"ens.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he conclusion of this editorial is that the government should lower property taes for railroad
companies! %he first reason given is that railroads spend billions per year maintaining and
upgrading their facilities! %he second reason is that shipping goods by rail is cost-effective and
environmentally sound! %his argument is unconvincing for several reasons!
First of all, the argument depends upon a misleading comparison between railroad and truck
company ependitures! .lthough trucking companies do not pay property ta on roads they use,
they do pay such taes on the yards, warehouses and maintenance facilities they own! .nd while
trucking companies pay only a portion of road maintenance costs, this is because they are not sole
users of public roads! Iailroad companies shoulder the entire burden of maintenance and taes on
their own facilities and tracks; but they distribute these costs to other users through usage fees!
"n addition, the author assumes that property taes should be structured to provide incentives
for cost-effective and environmentally beneficial business practices! %his assumption is
<uestionable because property taes are normally structured to reflect the value of property!
2- Catalog
0oreover, the author seems to think that cost-effectiveness and environmental soundness are
e<ually relevant to the <uestion of ta relief! :owever, these are separate considerations! %he
environmental soundness of a practice might be relevant in determining ta structuring, but
society does not compensate a business for its cost-efficiency!
+plitting the issues of cost-efficiency and environmental impact highlights an ambiguity in the
claim that railway shipping is more appropriate! On the one hand, it may be appropriate, or
prudent, for me to ship furniture by rail because it is cost-effective; on the other hand, it might
be appropriate, or socially correct, to encourage more railway shipping because it is
environmentally sound! %he argument thus trades on an e<uivocation between social correctness on
the one hand, and personal or business prudence on the other!
"n sum, this argument is a confusion of weak comparisons, mied issues and e<uivocal claims! "
would not accept the conclusion without first determining7 586 the factors relevant to ta
structure, 526 whether specific ta benefits should accrue to property as well as to income and
capital gains taes, 5D6 whether railway shipping really does provide greater social benefits, and
546 whether it is correct to motivate more railway shipping on this basis!
22. The following appeared in the editorial section of a newspaper.
#+s public concern o$er drug abuse has increased! authorities ha$e become more
$igilant in their efforts to pre$ent illegal drugs from entering the country. 3any
drug traffickers ha$e conse9uently switched from mari7uana! which is bulky! or
heroin! which has a market too small to 7ustify the risk of se$ere punishment! to
cocaine. Thus enforcement efforts ha$e ironically resulted in an obser$ed
increase in the illegal use of cocaine.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he conclusion in this argument is that increased vigilance by drug enforcement authorities has
resulted in an increase in the illegal use of cocaine! %he author reaches this conclusion on the
grounds that drug traffickers have responded to increased enforcement efforts by switching
from bulkier and riskier drugs to cocaine! -resumably, the author's reasoning is that the increased
enforcement efforts inadvertently brought about an increase in the supply of cocaine which, in
turn, brought about the observed increase in the illegal use of cocaine! %his line of reasoning is
problematic in two important respects!
"n the first place, the author has engaged in #after this, therefore because of this$ reasoning!
%he only reason offered for believing that the increased vigilance caused the increase in cocaine
use is the fact that the former preceded the latter! (o additional evidence linking the two events
is offered in the argument, thus leaving open the possibility that the two events are not causally
related but merely correlated! %his in turn leaves open the possibility that factors other than the
one cited are responsible for the increase in cocaine use!
"n the second place, the author assumes that an increase in the supply of cocaine is sufficient to
bring about an increase in its use! 9hile this is a tempting assumption, it is a problematic one! %he
presumption re<uired to substantiate this view is that drug users are not particular about which
Issue 2)
drugs they use, so that if mari/uana and heroin are not available, they will switch to whatever drug
is availableAcocaine in this case! %he assumption does not seem reasonable on its face! 0ari/uana,
heroin, and cocaine are not alike in their effects on users; nor are they alike in the manner in
which they are ingested or in their addictive properties! %he view that drug users' choice of drugs
is simply a function of supply overlooks these important differences!
"n conclusion, the author has failed to establish a causal link between increased enforcement
efforts and the observed increase in illegal cocaine use! 9hile the enforcement activities may
have been a contributing factor, to show a clear causal connection the author must eamine and
rule out various other factors!
23. The following appeared in a speech deli$ered by a member of the city council.
#Twenty years ago! only half of the students who graduated from 6instein 5igh
0chool went on to attend a college or uni$ersity. Today! two thirds of the students
who graduate from 6instein do so. .learly! 6instein has impro$ed its educational
effecti$eness o$er the past two decades. This impro$ement has occurred despite
the fact that the school1s funding! when ad7usted for inflation! is about the same
as it was twenty years ago. Therefore! we do not need to make any substantial
increase in the school1s funding at this time.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his speaker draws the conclusion that there is no need to substantially increase funding for
Binstein :igh +chool! %o support this conclusion, the speaker claims that Binstein has improved its
educational efficiency over the past 2@ years, even though funding levels have remained relatively
constant! :is evidence is that two-thirds of Binstein's graduates now go on to college, whereas 2@
years ago only half of its students did so! %his argument suffers from several critical problems!
%o begin with, we must establish the meaning of the vague concept #educational efficiency!$ "f the
term is synonymous with the rate of graduation to college, then the statistics cited would strongly
support the argument! 2ut, normally we are interested in something more than /ust the numbers of
students who go on to college from a high school; we also want to know how well the school has
prepared students for a successful college eperienceAthat is, whether the school has provided a
good secondary education! %hus, for the speaker the term #educational efficiency$ must
essentially carry the same meaning as #educational <uality!$
=iven this clarification, one of the speaker's assumptions is that the rate of graduation to college
has increased because Binstein is doing a better /ob of educating its students! :owever, the fact
that more Binstein graduates now go on to college might simply reflect a general trend! .nd the
general trend might have less to do with improved secondary education than with the reality that
a college degree is now the standard of entry into most desirable /obs!
2ut even if the <uality of education at Binstein had improved, would this be a compelling reason to
deny Binstein additional funding3 " don't think so! "t is possible that the school has managed to
deliver better education in spite of meager funding! %eachers may be dipping into their own
pockets for supplies and other resources necessary for doing their /ob well! -erhaps the <uality of
2* Catalog
education at Binstein would improve even more with additional financial support!
"n sum, this argument does not establish the conclusion that additional funding for Binstein is
unnecessary! %o do so, the speaker would have to provide evidence that the <uality of education at
Binstein has improved! %his could be done by eamining student assessment scores or by tracking
students through their college careers to see how many successfully graduate and find /obs! "n
addition, the speaker would also have to show that Binstein is doing a good /ob with ade<uate
financial support, and not merely in spite of insufficient funding!
24. The following appeared in a memo from the customer ser$ice di$ision to the
manager of 3ammon 0a$ings and Doan.
#/e belie$e that impro$ed customer ser$ice is the best way for us to differentiate
oursel$es from competitors and attract new customers. /e can offer our
customers better ser$ice by reducing waiting time in teller lines from an a$erage
of si% minutes to an a$erage of three. 4y opening for business at *:3' instead of
(:''! and by remaining open for an additional hour beyond our current closing
time! we will be better able to accommodate the busy schedules of our customers.
These changes will enhance our bank1s image as the most customer&friendly bank
in town and gi$e us the edge o$er our competition.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he customer-service division of 0ammon +avings and *oan recommends that the best way for the
bank to attract new customers and differentiate itself from its competitors is to improve its
service to customersAspecifically, by reducing waiting time in teller lines, opening for business D@
minutes earlier, and closing an hour later! %hese improvements, it is argued, will give the bank the
edge over its competitors and make it appear more customer-friendly! For the most part this
recommendation is well-reasoned; a few concerns must be addressed, however!
First, the author assumes that 0ammon's competitors are similar to 0ammon in all respects other
than the ones listed! "n fact, 0ammon's competitors may be more conveniently located to
customers, or offer other services or products on more attractive terms than 0ammon! "f so,
0ammon may not gain the edge it seeks merely by enhancing certain services!
+econdly, the author assumes that the proposed improvements will sufficiently distinguish
0ammon from its competitors! %his is not necessarily the case! 0ammon's competitors may
already offer, or may plan to offer, essentially the same customer-service features as those
0ammon proposes for itself! "f so, 0ammon may not gain the edge it seeks merely by enhancing
these services!
%hirdly, the author assumes that 0ammon can offer these improved services without sacrificing
any other current features that attract customers! "n fact, 0ammon may have to cut back other
services or offer accounts on less attractive terms, all to compensate for the additional costs
associated with the proposed improvements! 2y rendering its other features less attractive to
customers, 0ammon may not attain the competitive edge it seeks!
"n conclusion, 0ammon's plan for attracting new customers and differentiating itself from its
Issue 2(
competitors is only modestly convincing! 9hile improvements in customer service generally tend to
enhance competitiveness, it is <uestionable whether the specific improvements advocated in the
recommendation are broad enough to be effective!
25. The following appeared as part of an article in a maga"ine on lifestyles.
#Two years ago! .ity D was listed 14th in an annual sur$ey that ranks cities
according to the 9uality of life that can be en7oyed by those li$ing in them. This
information will enable people who are mo$ing to the state in which .ity D is
located to confidently identify one place! at least! where schools are good!
housing is affordable! people are friendly! the en$ironment is safe! and the arts
flourish.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author concludes that City * has good schools, affordable housing, friendly people, flourishing
arts and a safe environment! %o support this claim the author cites an annual survey that ranks
cities according to <uality of life! %wo years ago City * was listed 84th in this survey! .s it stands
this argument is unconvincing!
First, the author fails to indicate what individual characteristics of cities were used as criteria
for the ranking! %o the etent that the criteria used in the survey were the same as the features
listed by the author in the conclusion, the conclusion would be warranted! On the other hand, if
the survey employed entirely different criteriaAfor eample, outdoor recreational opportunities
or educational achievement levels of adult residentsAthen the author's conclusion would be wholly
unwarranted!
+econdly, the author provides no indication of how each characteristic was weighted in the
ranking! For eample, City * may have far and away the most flourishing arts scene among the
cities surveyed, but it may have poor schools, unfriendly people, and an unsafe environment! %he
etent to which the survey accurately reflects City *'s overall <uality of life in this case would
depend largely on the relative weight placed on the arts as a factor affecting <uality of life!
%hirdly, the author fails to indicate how many cities were included in the survey! %h more cities
included in the survey, the stronger the argumentAand vice versa! For eample, if 2,@@@ cities
were surveyed, then City * would rank in the top one percent in terms of <uality of life! On the
other hand, if only 84 cities were surveyed then City * would rank last!
Finally, the author's conclusion depends on the <uestionable assumption that the conditions listed
by the author have remained unchanged in City * since the survey was conducted two years ago!
.dmittedly, had ten years elapsed the argument would be even weaker! Cet two years is sufficient
time for a significant change in the overall economy, the city's fiscal policies, its financial
condition, or its political climate! .ny of these factors can affect the <uality of schools, the
etent to which art is flourishing, or the cost of housing!
"n conclusion, the author does not ade<uately support the conclusion! %o strengthen the argument,
the author must show that the criteria used in the survey were the same as the features listed in
the conclusion and were weighted in a way that does not distort the picture in City *! %o better
3' Catalog
assess the argument, we would also need more information about the cities included in the survey,
as well as what changes in City * have occurred during the past two years!
2-. The following appeared in a memorandum from a member of a financial
management and consulting firm.
#/e ha$e learned from an employee of /indfall! Dtd.! that its accounting
department! by checking about ten percent of the last month1s purchasing
in$oices for errors and inconsistencies! sa$ed the company some >1'!''' in
o$erpayments. In order to help our clients increase their net gains! we should
ad$ise each of them to institute a policy of checking all purchasing in$oices for
errors. 0uch a recommendation could also help us get the /indfall account by
demonstrating to /indfall the rigorousness of our methods.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
Sample essay 1:
%he argument that checking all purchasing invoices for errors will not only increase the net gains
of the clients but also help the firm get the 9indfall account is not entirely logically convincing,
since it ignores certain crucial assumptions!
First, the argument assumes that instituting a policy of checking all purchasing invoices can help
find out the errors and inconsistencies! %here are a number of reasons why this might not be true!
For eample, the people who check the accounts will probably make mistakes as anyone else,
intentionally or unconsciously! "f they do, checking purchasing invoices will not help avoid errors
and inconsistencies!
+econd, even if the checking can help avoid errors and inconsistencies, it will not necessarily save
money for the company, for it is also likely that the accounting department makes no mistakes! "f
they have no errors, how can the checking save money for the company!
Finally, even supposing the checking does save money for the company, the argument ignores the
fact that the checking itself costs the company money! "f the cost is more than the gains from
the errors, the company will lose money!
%hus, the argument is not completely sound! %he evidence in support of the conclusion that the
checking of last month's invoices has saved the company G8@,@@@ does little prove the conclusion
that checking all purchasing invoices for errors will not only increase the net gains of the clients
but also help the firm get the 9indfall account since it does not address the assumptions " have
already raised! 4ltimately, the argument might have been strengthened by making it plain that
checking all invoices will surely help find out errors, that all the invoices are bound to contain
errors, and that the checking itself will not cost much!
Sample essay 2:
"n this argument a member of a financial management and consulting firm reasons that since
9indfall *td! increased its net gains by checking 8@ percent of its purchasing invoices for errors,
it would be a good idea to advise the firm's clients to institute a policy of checking all purchasing
Issue 31
invoices for errors! %wo potential benefits are foreseen from this recommendation7 it could help
the firm's clients increase their net gains, and it could help the firm land the 9indfall account!
%he member's argument is unconvincing for a couple of reasons!
%he main problem with the argument is that the conclusion is based upon insufficient evidence!
%he fact that some of 9indfall's purchasing invoices contained errors might simply be
attributable to the sloppy accounting practices of 9indfall's suppliers! %hus, rather than
indicating a general problem, the invoice errors might simply be indicative of a problem that is
specific to 9indfall *td! "n other words, the evidence drawn from 9indfall's eperience is
insufficient to support the conclusion that all purchasing invoices are sub/ect to similar errors!
+econdly, the evidence offered in the argument suggests only that companies purchasing from the
same suppliers that 9indfall purchases from are likely to eperience similar problems! "f the
firm's clients do not purchase from 9indfall's suppliers, checking for errors might turn out to be a
monumental waste of time!
"n conclusion, the author's argument fails to provide good grounds for instituting the policy of
routinely checking purchasing invoices for errors! %o strengthen the conclusion the author would
have to provide evidence that this is a widespread problem! +pecifically, what is re<uired are
additional instances of purchasing invoices containing errors that are drawn from various
companies!
2). The following appeared in a newspaper editorial.
#+s $iolence in mo$ies increases! so do crime rates in our cities. To combat this
problem we must establish a board to censor certain mo$ies! or we must limit
admission to persons o$er 21 years of age. +pparently our legislators are not
concerned about this issue since a bill calling for such actions recently failed to
recei$e a ma7ority $ote.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
2ased upon a correlation between increases in movie violence and crime rates in cities, the author
argues that to combat crime in cities we must either censor movies that contain violence or
prohibit people who are under 28 years of age from viewing them! %he author further argues that
because legislators failed to pass a bill calling for these alternatives, they are not concerned with
the problem of crime in our cities! %he author's reasoning is unconvincing, since it suffers from
two critical problems!
%o begin with, the author's solution to the problem rests on the claim that portrayals of violence
in movies are the cause of crime in the cities! :owever, the evidence offered is insufficient to
support this claim! . mere positive correlation between movie violence and city crime rates does
not necessarily prove a causal relationship! "n addition, all other prospective causes of city crime
such as poverty or unemployment must be ruled out! .s it stands, the author's solution to the
problem is based upon an oversimplified analysis of the issue!
.nother problem with the argument is that the author's solution assumes that only persons under
28 years of age are adversely affected by movie violence! 4ltimately, this means that the author
32 Catalog
is committed to the view that, for the most part, the perpetrators of crime in cities are /uveniles
under 28! *acking evidence to support this view, the author's solution cannot be taken seriously!
"n conclusion, the best eplanation of the failure of the bill calling for the actions proposed in this
argument is that most legislators were capable of recognizing the simplistic analysis of the
problem upon which these actions are based! Iather than providing a demonstration of a lack of
concern about this issue, the legislators' votes reveal an understanding of the compleities of this
problem and an unwillingness to accept simple solutions!
2*. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
#.ommuter use of the new subway train is e%ceeding the transit company1s
pro7ections. 5owe$er! commuter use of the shuttle buses that transport people to
the subway stations is below the pro7ected $olume. If the transit company e%pects
commuters to ride the shuttle buses to the subway rather than dri$e there! it must
either reduce the shuttle bus fares or increase the price of parking at the subway
stations.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author concludes that the local transit company must either reduce fares for the shuttle
buses that transport people to their subway stations or increase parking fees at the stations! %he
reasons offered to support this conclusion are that commuter use of the subway train is
eceeding the transit company's epectations, while commuter use of the shuffle buses is below
pro/ected volume! %his argument is unconvincing because the author oversimplifies the problem
and its solutions in a number of ways!
%o begin with, by concluding that the transit company must either reduce shuttle fares or
increase parking fees, the author assumes that these are the only available solutions to the
problem of limited shuttle use! :owever, it is possible that other factorsAsuch as inconvenient
shuttle routing and1or scheduling, safety concerns, or an increase in carpoolsAcontribute to the
problem! "f so, ad/usting fares or parking fees would might not solve the problem!
"n addition, the author assumes that reducing shuttle fees and increasing parking fees are
mutually eclusive alternatives! :owever, the author provides no reason for imposing an either1or
choice! .d/usting both shuttle fares and parking fees might produce better results! 0oreover, if
the author is wrong in the assumption that parking fees and shuttle fees are the only possible
causes of the problem, then the most effective solution might include a comple of policy changes
Afor eample, in shuttle fares, parking fees, rerouting, and rescheduling!
"n conclusion, this argument is weak because the author oversimplifies both the problem and its
possible solutions! %o strengthen the argument the author must eamine all factors that might
account for the shuttle's unpopularity! .dditionally, the author should consider all possible
solutions to determine which combination would bring about the greatest increase in shuttle use!
2(. The following was e%cerpted from the speech of a spokesperson for 0ynthetic
arm 8roducts! Inc.
Issue 33
#3any farmers who in$ested in the e9uipment needed to make the switch from
synthetic to organic fertili"ers and pesticides feel that it would be too e%pensi$e
to resume synthetic farming at this point. 4ut studies of farmers who switched to
organic farming last year indicate that their current crop yields are lower. 5ence
their purchase of organic farming e9uipment! a relati$ely minor in$estment
compared to the losses that would result from continued lower crop yields! cannot
7ustify persisting on an unwise course. +nd the choice to farm organically is
financially unwise! gi$en that it was moti$ated by en$ironmental rather than
economic concerns.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his speaker argues that farmers who invested in organic farming e<uipment should resume
synthetic farming because it is financially unwise to continue organic farming! %he speaker cites
studies showing that farmers who switched to organic farming last year had tower crop yields!
2ased on these studies, the speaker concludes that the relatively inepensive investment in
organic farming e<uipment cannot /ustify continuing to farm organically! %he speaker also claims
that continuing to farm organically is financially unwise because it is motivated by environmental,
not economic, concerns! %he argument suffers from three problems!
One problem with this reasoning involves the vague comparative claim that farmers who switched
to organic farming last year had lower crop yields! 9e are not informed whether the survey
compared last year's organic crop yields with yields from previous years or with those from
synthetic farms! 0oreover, the author provides no evidence about how the survey was conducted!
*acking more information about the survey, we cannot accept the speaker's conclusion!
+econdly, the speaker assumes that the low crop yields for first-time organic farmers last year
are representative of crop yields for organic farmers overall! :owever, more eperienced organic
farmers might have had much better crop yields last year! .lso, the first-time organic farmers
might improve their own crop yields in future years! 0oreover, last year's yield may have been
unusually low due to poor weather or other factors, and thus not indicative of future yields!
Finally, in asserting that organic farming is financially unwise because it is motivated by
environmental instead of economic concerns, the speaker unfairly assumes that a practice cannot
be both environmentally and economically beneficial! "t is possible that, in the long run, practices
that help protect the environment will also result in greater economic benefits! For instance,
organic farming methods may better protect soil from depletion of the elements that contribute
to healthy crops, providing an economic benefit in the long run!
"n conclusion, the speaker's argument is poorly supported and is short-sighted! %o better evaluate
the argument, we would need more information about the how the survey was conducted, especially
about the comparison the survey makes! %o strengthen the argument, the speaker must present
evidence that last years' crop yields from first-time organic farmers are representative of yields
among organic farms in general! %he author must also provide evidence that environmentally sound
practices cannot be economically beneficial as well!
3'. The following appeared in a newspaper story gi$ing ad$ice about in$estments.
34 Catalog
#+s o$erall life e%pectancy continues to rise! the population of our country is
growing increasingly older. or e%ample! o$er twenty percent of the residents of
one of our more populated regions are now at least -5 years old! and occupancy
rates at resort hotels in that region declined significantly during the past si%
months. 4ecause of these two related trends! a prudent in$estor would be well
ad$ised to sell interest in hotels and in$est in hospitals and nursing homes
instead.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument prudent investors are advised to stop investing in hotels and invest instead in
hospitals and nursing homes! %he author cites two related trendsAan aging population and a
decline in hotel occupancyAas grounds for this advice! %o illustrate these trends, the author
refers to another region of the country, where 2@ percent of the population is over J& years old
and where occupancy rates in resort hotels have declined significantly during the past si months!
%his argument is unconvincing in a couple of important respects!
"n the first place, the author provides no evidence to support the claim that the population as a
whole is aging and that the hotel occupancy rate in general is declining! %he eample cited, while
suggestive of these trends, is insufficient to warrant their truth because there is no reason to
believe that data drawn from this unnamed region is representative of the entire country! For
eample, if the region from which the data was gathered was Florida, it would clearly be
unrepresentative! %he reason for this is obvious! Florida is populated by a disproportionate number
of retired people over J& years old and is a very popular vacation destination during the winter
months! 0oreover, resort hotel occupancy in Florida typically declines significantly during the
summer months!
"n the second place, the author has provided no evidence to support the claim that the decline in
hotel occupancy is related to the aging of the population! %he author appears to believe that the
decrease in occupancy rates at resort hotels is somehow caused by the increase in the number of
people over age J&! :owever, the eample cited by the author establishes only that these two
trends are correlated; it does not establish that the decline in hotel occupancy is due to an
increase in the number of people over the age of J&!
"n conclusion, the author's investment advice is not based on sound reasoning! %o strengthen the
conclusion, the author must show that the trends were not restricted to a particular region of the
country! %he author must also show that the cause of the decline in hotel occupancy is the
increase in the number of people over J&!
31. The following appeared as part of the business plan of an in$estment and financial
consulting firm.
#0tudies suggest that an a$erage coffee drinker1s consumption of coffee increases
with age! from age 1' through age -'. 6$en after age -'! coffee consumption
remains high. The a$erage cola drinker1s consumption of cola! howe$er! declines
with increasing age. 4oth of these trends ha$e remained stable for the past 4'
years. =i$en that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the
Issue 35
population ages o$er the ne%t 2' years! it follows that the demand for coffee will
increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. /e should!
therefore! consider transferring our in$estments from .ola Doca to 6arly 4ird
.offee.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument a consulting firm recommends the transfer of investments from Cola *oca to
Barly 2ird Coffee because, during the net 2@ years, coffee demand will increase while cola
demand will decrease! %his prediction is based on the epectation that the number of older adults
will significantly increase over the net 2@ years, together with statistics, reportedly stable for
the past 4@ years, indicating that coffee consumption increases with age while cola consumption
declines with increasing age! For three reasons, this financial advice may not be sound!
First, the argument assumes that relative supply conditions will remain unchanged over the net
twenty years! :owever, the supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as well as other costs of
doing business as a producer of coffee or cola, may fluctuate greatly over a long time period!
%hese factors may affect comparative prices of coffee and cola, which in turn may affect
comparative demand and the value of investments in coffee and cola companies! 9ithout
considering other factors that contribute to the value of a coffee or cola company, the firm
cannot /ustify its recommendation!
+econdly, the argument fails to account for the timing of the increase in coffee consumption!
-erhaps the population will age dramatically during the net five years, then remain relatively flat
over the following 8& years! Or perhaps most of the increase in average age will occur toward the
end of the 2@-year period! .n investor has more opportunity to profit over the short and long
term in the first scenario than in the second, assuming the investor can switch investments along
the way! "f the second scenario reflects the facts, the firm's recommendation would be ill-
founded!
Finally, the firm un/ustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption
with age! %he firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies! 0oreover,
while the phrase #studies suggest$ may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is
vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about
them!
"n conclusion, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola *oca to Barly 2ird Coffee on
the basis of this argument! %o better evaluate the recommendation, we would need more
information about the study upon which it relies! 9e would also need more detailed pro/ections of
population trends during the net 2@ years!
32. The following appeared in the editorial section of a /est .ambria newspaper.
#+ recent re$iew of the /est .ambria $olunteer ambulance ser$ice re$ealed a
longer a$erage response time to accidents than was reported by a commercial
ambulance s9uad located in 6ast .ambria. In order to pro$ide better patient care
for accident $ictims and to raise re$enue for our town by collecting ser$ice fees
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for ambulance use! we should disband our $olunteer ser$ice and hire a
commercial ambulance ser$ice.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author concludes that 9est Cambria can increase revenues and provide
better care to accident victims by disbanding the volunteer ambulance service and hiring a
commercial one! %he author reasons that this change would yield additional revenues because
service fees could be imposed for ambulance use! %he author also reasons that the city would
provide better service to accident victims because a commercial service would respond more
<uickly to accidents than a volunteer service would! %he author's argument is flawed in two
respects!
%o begin with, the author's plan for raising revenue for 9est Cambria is <uestionable! 4nless the
service fees are considerable or the accident rate is etremely high, it is unlikely that significant
revenues will be raised by charging a fee for ambulance use! Conse<uently, revenue generation is
not a good reason to disband the volunteer service and hire a commercial service!
(et, the author's belief that better patient care would be provided by a commercial ambulance
service than by a volunteer service is based on insufficient evidence! %he fact that the
commercial service in Bast Cambria has a lower average response time than the volunteer service
in 9est Cambria is insufficient evidence for the claim that this will be the case for all commercial
services! 0oreover, the author's recommendation depends upon the assumption that response time
to an accident is the only factor that influences patient care! Other pertinent factorsAsuch as
ambulance-crew proficiency and training, and emergency e<uipmentAare not considered!
"n conclusion, this argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument the author would have to
show that substantial revenue for the town could be raised by charging service fees for ambulance
use! .dditionally, the author would have to provide more evidence to support the claim that
commercial ambulance services provide better patient care than volunteer services!
33. The following is part of a business plan being discussed at a board meeting of the
8erks .ompany.
#It is no longer cost&effecti$e for the 8erks .ompany to continue offering its
employees a generous package of benefits and incenti$es year after year. In
periods when national unemployment rates are low! 8erks may need to offer such
a package in order to attract and keep good employees! but since national
unemployment rates are now high! 8erks does not need to offer the same benefits
and incenti$es. The money thus sa$ed could be better used to replace the e%isting
plant machinery with more technologically sophisticated e9uipment! or e$en to
build an additional plant.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author of -erks Company's business plan recommends that funds currently spent on the
employee benefits package be redirected to either upgrade plant machinery or build an additional
plant! %he author reasons that offering employees a generous package of benefits and incentives
Issue 3)
year after year is no longer cost-effective given current high unemployment rates, and that -erks
can attract and keep good employees without such benefits and incentives! 9hile this argument
has some merit, its line of reasoning re<uires close eamination!
%o begin with, the author relies on the reasoning that it is unnecessary to pay relatively high
wages during periods of high unemployment because the market will supply many good employees at
lower rates of pay! 9hile this reasoning may be sound in a general sense, the particular industry
that -erks is involved in may not be representative of unemployment levels generally! "t is possible
that relatively few unemployed people have the type of <ualifications that match /ob openings at
-erks, if this is the case, the claim that it is easier now to attract good employees at lower wages
is ill-founded!
+econdly, the argument relies on the assumption that the cost-effectiveness of a wage policy is
determined solely by whatever wages a market can currently bear! %his assumption overlooks the
peripheral costs of reducing or eliminating benefits! For eample, employee morale is likely to
decline if -erks eliminates benefits; as a result, some employees could become less productive, and
others might <uit! Bven if -erks can readily replace those employees, training costs and lower
productivity associated with high turnover may outweigh any advantages of redirecting funds to
plant construction! 0oreover, because the recommended reduction in benefits is intended to fund
the retrofitting of an entire plant or the building of a new one, the reduction would presumably be
a sizable one; conse<uently, the turnover costs associated with the reduction might be very high
indeed!
"n conclusion, this argument is not convincing, since it unfairly assumes that a broad employment
statistic applies to one specific industry, and since it ignores the disadvantages of implementing
the plan! .ccordingly, " would suspend /udgment about the recommendation until the author shows
that unemployment in -arks' industry is high and until the author produces a thorough cost-benefit
analysis of the proposed plan!
34. The following appeared as part of a plan proposed by an e%ecuti$e of the 6asy
.redit .ompany to the president.
#The 6asy .redit .ompany would gain an ad$antage o$er competing credit card
ser$ices if we were to donate a portion of the proceeds from the use of our cards
to a well&known en$ironmental organi"ation in e%change for the use of its symbol
or logo on our card. 0ince a recent poll shows that a large percentage of the
public is concerned about en$ironmental issues! this policy would attract new
customers! increase use among e%isting customers! and enable us to charge
interest rates that are higher than the lowest ones a$ailable.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author concludes that the Basy Credit Company would gain several
advantages over its competitors by donating a portion of its profits to a well-known environmental
organization in echange for the use of the organization's logo on their credit card! %he author
reaches this conclusion on the basis of a recent poll that shows widespread public concern about
environmental issues! .mong the advantages of this policy, the author foresees an increase in
3* Catalog
credit card use by eisting customers, the ability to charge higher interest rates, and the ability
to attract new customers! 9hile the author's argument has some merit, it suffers from two
critical problems!
%o begin with, the author assumes that the environmental organization whose logo is sought is
concerned with the same environmental issues about which the poll shows widespread concern!
:owever, the author provides no evidence that this is the case! "t is possible that very few
credit-card users are concerned about the issues that are the organization's areas of concern; if
so, then it is unlikely that the organization's logo would attract much business for the Basy Credit
Company!
(et, the author assumes that the public's concern about environmental issues will result in its
taking steps to do something about the problemAin this case, to use the Basy Credit Company
credit card! %his assumption is unsupported and runs contrary to eperience! .lso, it is more
reasonable to assume that people who are concerned about a particular cause will choose a more
direct means of epressing their concern!
"n conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing as it stands! %o strengthen the argument, the
author must show a positive link between the environmental issues about which the public has
epressed concern and the issues with which this particular environmental organization is
concerned! "n addition, the author must provide evidence to support the assumption that concern
about a problem will cause people to do something about the problem!
35. The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the financial planning
office to the administration of ern <alley ;ni$ersity.
#In the past few years! ern <alley ;ni$ersity has suffered from a decline in both
enrollments and admissions applications. The reason can be disco$ered from our
students! who most often cite poor teaching and inade9uate library resources as
their chief sources of dissatisfaction with ern <alley. Therefore! in order to
increase the number of students attending our uni$ersity! and hence to regain our
position as the most prestigious uni$ersity in the greater ern <alley metropolitan
area! it is necessary to initiate a fund&raising campaign among the alumni that will
enable us to e%pand the range of sub7ects we teach and to increase the si"e of our
library facilities.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he financial-planning office at Fern Falley 4niversity concludes that it is necessary to initiate a
fund-raising campaign among alumni that will enable the university to epand the range of sub/ects
it offers and increase the size of its library facilities! "ts argument is based on a five-year
decline in enrollments and admission applications together with the claim that students cite poor
teaching and inade<uate library resources as their chief sources of dissatisfaction with Fern
Falley! %he conclusion of the financial-planning office is not strongly supported by the reasons
given!
%o begin with, this argument depends on the assumption that providing a greater range of
Issue 3(
sub/ects and a larger library will alleviate the students' chief sources of dissatisfaction! :owever,
the students have not complained about inade<uate course offerings or about the size of the
library; their complaint is that the eisting courses are poorly taught and that library resources
are inade<uate! Offering more kinds of classes does not improve teaching <uality, and increasing a
library's size does nothing to enhance its holdings, or resources! .ccordingly, the recommendation
does not bear directly on the problem as stated!
+econdly, the proposal unfairly assumes that the recent enrollment and application decline was
caused by poor teaching and inade<uate library resources! "t is e<ually possible that all colleges,
regardless of teaching <uality and library resources, have eperienced similar declines! %hese
declines may have been due to unrelated factors, such as unfavorable economic conditions, or an
increase in high-paying computer /obs not re<uiring a college education!
%hirdly, the author provides no support for the claim that students are dissatisfied with the
teaching and library resources at Fern Falley! "t is possible that the claim is based on hearsay or
on scant anecdotal evidence! 9ithout more information about the basis of the claim, we cannot be
sure that the financial-planning office is addressing the real problems!
"n conclusion, the advice of the financial planning office is not well supported! %o strengthen the
argument, the planning office must provide evidence that students are dissatisfied with the range
of sub/ects and with the library's size, and that this dissatisfaction is the cause of the recent
decline in enrollment and the number of admission applications! %o better assess the argument as
it stands, we would need to know whether the students' attitudes were measured in a reliable,
scientific manner!
3-. The following appeared in an article in a college departmental newsletter
#8rofessor Taylor of Eones ;ni$ersity is promoting a model of foreign language
instruction in which students recei$e ten weeks of intensi$e training! then go
abroad to li$e with families for ten weeks. The superiority of the model! 8rofessor
Taylor contends! is pro$ed by the results of a study in which foreign language
tests gi$en to students at 25 other colleges show that first&year foreign language
students at Eones speak more fluently after only ten to twenty weeks in the
program than do nine out of ten foreign language ma7ors elsewhere at the time of
their graduation.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his newsletter article claims that -rofessor %aylor's foreign-language program at )ones
4niversity is a model of foreign language instruction! %his conclusion is based on a study in which
foreign language tests were given to students at 2& other universities! %he study shows that
first-year language students at )ones speak more fluently after /ust 8@ to 2@ weeks in the
program than do ?@ percent of foreign-language ma/ors at other colleges at graduation! ,espite
these impressive statistics, " am unconvinced by this argument for two reasons!
%o begin with, the assumption here is that students from -rofessor %aylor's program have learned
more than foreign language students at other universities! :owever, we are not given enough
4' Catalog
information about the study to be sure that this comparison is reliable! For eample, the article
does not tell us whether the foreign language students at )ones were given the tests; it only
reports that the tests in <uestion were #given to students at 2& other colleges!$ "f )ones
students were not tested, then no basis eists for comparing them to students at the other
universities! "n addition, the article does not indicate whether students at all the universities,
including )ones, were given the same tests! "f not, then again no basis eists for the comparison!
Furthermore, we cannot tell from this article whether the universities in the study, or their
students, are comparable in other ways! For instance, )ones might be a prestigious university that
draws its students from the top echelon of high school graduates, while the other universities are
lower-ranked schools with more lenient admission re<uirements! "n this event, the study wouldn't
tell us much about -rofessor %aylor's program, for the proficiency of his students might be a
function of their superior talent and intelligence!
"n conclusion, the statistics cited in the article offer little support for the claim about %aylor's
program! %o strengthen the argument, the author must show that the universities in the study,
including )ones, were comparable in other ways, that their foreign language students were tested
identically, and that %aylor's program was the only important difference between students tested
at )ones and those tested at the other universities!
3). The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local
newspaper.
#3otorcycle F has been manufactured in the ;nited 0tates for o$er )' years.
+lthough one foreign company has copied the motorcycle and is selling it for
less! the company has failed to attract motorcycle F customersCsome say
because its product lacks the e%ceptionally loud noise made by motorcycle F. 4ut
there must be some other e%planation. +fter all! foreign cars tend to be 9uieter
than similar +merican&made cars! but they sell at least as well. +lso! tele$ision
ad$ertisements for motorcycle F highlight its durability and sleek lines! not its
noisiness! and the ads typically ha$e $oice&o$ers or rock music rather than
engine&roar on the sound track.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author re/ects the claim that the loud engine noise of .merican-made 0otorcycle K appeals
to the manufacturer's customers and eplains why they are not attracted to <uieter, foreign-made
imitations! %he author's re/ection is based on two reasons! First, the author points out that
foreign cars tend to be <uieter than similar .merican-made cars, yet they sell /ust as well!
+econdly, the author claims that ads for 0otorcycle K do not emphasize its engine noise; instead,
the ads highlight its durability and sleek lines, and employ voice-overs of rock music rather than
engine roar! "n my view, these reasons do not establish that the <uieter engines of the foreign
imitations fail to account for their lack of appeal!
%o begin with, the first reason rests on the assumption that what automobile customers find
appealing is analogous to what motorcycle customers find appealing! %his assumption is weak, since
although there are points of comparison between automobiles and motorcycles, there are many
Issue 41
dissimilarities as well! For eample, headroom, smooth ride, and <uiet engines are usually desirable
<ualities in a car! :owever, headroom is not a consideration for motorcycle customers; and many
motorcycle riders specifically want an eciting, challenging ride, not a smooth one! %he same may
be true of engine noise; it is possible that motorcyclists like what loud engine noise adds to the
eperience of motorcycle riding!
%he author's second reason is also problematic! .lthough the engine noise of 0otorcycle K is not
eplicitly touted in advertisements, it does not necessarily follow that engine noise is not an
important selling feature! 2ecause 0otorcycle K has been manufactured in the 4!+! for over >@
years, its reputation for engine noise is probably already well known and need not be advertised!
0oreover, the advertisers might use rock music on 0otorcycle K ad soundtracks for the specific
purpose of suggesting, or even simulating, its loud engine noise!
"n conclusion, this author has not provided convincing reasons for re/ecting the claim that <uieter
engines make foreign-made motorcycles less popular! %he author's analogy involving foreign car
sales is weak, and the claim about 0otorcycle K advertisements misses the purpose of including
rock music in the ads!
3*. The following appeared in the editorial section of a campus newspaper.
#4ecause occupancy rates for campus housing fell during the last academic year!
so did housing re$enues. To sol$e the problem! campus housing officials should
reduce the number of a$ailable housing units! thereby increasing the occupancy
rates. +lso! to keep students from choosing to li$e off&campus! housing officials
should lower the rents! thereby increasing demand.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author of this article argues that, to reverse declining revenues from campus housing rentals,
campus housing officials should decrease the number of available housing units and reduce rent
prices on the units! %he author's line of reasoning is that fewer available units will limit supply
while lower rents will increase demand, thereby improving overall occupancy rates, and that the
resulting increase in occupancy rates will, in turn, boost revenues for the campus! %his reasoning is
unconvincing for several reasons!
%o begin with, the author assumes that boosting occupancy rates will improve revenues! .ll other
factors remaining unchanged, this would be the case! :owever, the author proposes reducing both
the supply of units and their rental prices! 2oth of these actions would tend to reduce revenues!
%he author provides no evidence that the revenue-enhancing effect of a higher occupancy rate
will eceed the revenue-decreasing effect of reduced supply and price! 9ithout such evidence,
the argument is unconvincing!
+econdly, the author assumes that lowering rents will lead to higher revenues by increasing
demand! :owever, it is possible that demand would decrease, depending on the etent of the rent
reduction as well as other factorsAsuch as overall enrollment and the supply and relative cost of
off-campus housing! 0oreover, even if demand increases by lowering rents, revenues will not
necessarily increase as a result! Other factors, such as maintenance and other costs of providing
42 Catalog
campus housing units and the reduced supply of rental units might contribute to a net decrease in
revenue!
%hirdly, in asserting that lowering rental rates will increase demand, the author assumes that
current rental rates are causing low demand! :owever, low demand for student housing could be a
function of other factors! For instance, the student housing units may be old and poorly
maintained! -erhaps students find the campus housing rules oppressive, and therefore prefer to
live off-campus; or perhaps enrollments are down generally, affecting campus housing occupancy!
"n conclusion, the author of this editorial has not argued effectively for a decrease in the number
of available campus housing units and a reduction in rental rates for those units! %o strengthen
the argument, the author must show that a rent reduction will actually increase demand, and that
the revenue-enhancing effect of greater demand will outweigh the revenue-reducing effect of a
smaller supply and of lower rental rates!
3(. The following appeared in an +$ia +irlines departmental memorandum.
#On a$erage! ( out of e$ery 1!''' passengers who tra$eled on +$ia +irlines last
year filed a complaint about our baggage&handling procedures. This means that
although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures!
the o$erwhelming ma7ority were 9uite satisfied with themB thus it would appear
that a re$iew of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or
increasing the number of +$ia1s passengers.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he conclusion in this .via .irlines memorandum is that a review of the airline's baggage-handling
procedures will not further its goal of maintaining or increasing the number of .via passengers!
%he author's line of reasoning is that the great ma/ority of .via passengers are happy with
baggage handling at the airline because only one percent of passengers who traveled on .via last
year filed a complaint about .via's procedures! %his argument is problematic in two important
respects!
First, the argument turns on the assumption that the ?? percent of .via passengers who did not
complain were happy with the airline's baggage-handling procedures! :owever, the author provides
no evidence to support this assumption! %he fact that, on the average, ? out of 8@@@ passengers
took the time and effort to formally complain indicates nothing about the eperiences or
attitudes of the remaining ??8! "t is possible that many passengers were displeased but too busy
to formally complain, while others had no opinion at all! *acking more complete information about
passengers' attitudes, we cannot assume that the great ma/ority of passengers who did not
complain were happy!
+econdly, in the absence of information about the number of passengers per flight and about the
complaint records of competing airlines, the statistics presented in the memorandum might
distort the seriousness of the problem! =iven that most modern aircraft carry as many as D@@ to
&@@ passengers, it is possible that .via received as many as 4 or & complaints per flight! %he
author unfairly trivializes this record! 0oreover, the author fails to compare .via's record with
Issue 43
those of its competitors! "t is possible that a particular competitor received virtually no baggage-
handling complaints last year! "f so, .via's one percent complaint rate might be significant enough
to motivate customers to switch to another airline!
"n conclusion, the author has failed to demonstrate that a review of the baggage-handling
procedures at .via .irlines is not needed to maintain or increase the number of .via's passengers!
%o strengthen the argument, the author must at the very least provide affirmative evidence that
most .via passengers last year were indeed happy with baggage-handling procedures! %o better
evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the numbers of .via passengers per
flight last year and about the baggage-handling records of .via's competitors!
4'. The following appeared as part of an article in a weekly newsmaga"ine.
#The country of 0acchar can best sol$e its current trade deficit problem by
lowering the price of sugar! its primary e%port. 0uch an action would make
0acchar better able to compete for markets with other sugar&e%porting countries.
The sale of 0acchar1s sugar abroad would increase! and this increase would
substantially reduce 0acchar1s trade deficit.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author of this article argues that the country of +acchar can best solve its current trade
deficit problem by lowering the price of its main eport, sugar! %he line of reasoning is that this
action would make +acchar more competitive with other sugar-eporting countries, thereby
increasing sales of +acchar's sugar abroad and, in turn, substantially reducing the trade-deficit!
%his line of reasoning is unconvincing for a couple of reasons!
"n the first place, this argument is based on an oversimplified analysis of the trade deficit
problem +acchar currently faces! . trade-deficit occurs when a country spends more on imports
than it earns from eports! %he author's argument relies on the assumption that earnings from
imports will remain constant! :owever, the author provides no evidence that substantiates this
assumption! "t is possible that revenues from imports will increase dramatically in the near future;
if so, the course of action proposed by the author might be unnecessary to solve +acchar's trade
deficit problem! Conversely, it is possible that revenues from imports are likely to decrease
dramatically in the near future! %o the etent that this is the case, lowering sugar prices may
have a negligible countervailing effect, depending on the demand for +acchar's sugar!
"n the second place, increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yield an increase in
income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income due to the lower
price! %his raises three <uestions the author fails to address! First, will a price decrease in fact
stimulate demand3 +econd, is demand sufficient to meet the increase in supply3 %hird, can
+acchar increase the sugar production sufficiently to overcome the deficit3 "n the absence of
answers to these <uestions, we cannot assess the author's proposal!
"n conclusion, the author provides an incomplete analysis of the problem and, as a result, provides
a <uestionable solution! %o better evaluate the proposal, we would need to know how revenues from
imports are likely to change in the future! %o strengthen the argument, the author must provide
44 Catalog
evidence that demand is sufficient to meet the proposed increase in supply, and that +acchar has
sufficient resources to accommodate the increase!
41. The following appeared as part of an article in a trade publication.
#0tronger laws are needed to protect new kinds of home&security systems from
being copied and sold by imitators. /ith such protection! manufacturers will
naturally in$est in the de$elopment of new home&security products and
production technologies. /ithout stronger laws! therefore! manufacturers will cut
back on in$estment. rom this will follow a corresponding decline not only in
product 9uality and marketability! but also in production efficiency! and thus
ultimately a loss of manufacturing 7obs in the industry.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author of this article warns that stronger laws are needed to protect new kinds of home
security systems from being copied and sold by imitators in order to prevent an eventual loss of
manufacturing /obs within the industry! %his conclusion is based on the following chain of
reasoning7 9ith the protection of stronger laws, manufacturers will naturally invest in the
development of new home security products and production technologies, whereas without such
protection, manufacturers will cut back on investment! "f manufacturers cut back on investment,
then a decline in product <uality and marketability, as well as in production efficiency, will result!
%his, in turn, will cause the predicted loss of industry /obs! %his line of reasoning is unconvincing
for several reasons!
%o begin with, the author assumes that eisting copyright, patent and trade secret laws are
inade<uate to protect home security system design! 2ut the author never eplains why these laws
don't offer sufficient protection, nor does he offer any evidence to show that this is the case!
+econdly, the argument depends on the twin assumptions that stronger legal protection will
encourage manufacturers to invest in home security-system production, while the absence of
strong legal protection will have the opposite effect! %he author fails to provide any evidence or
reasons for accepting these assumptions about cause-and-effect connections between the law and
what happens in the marketplace!
0oreover, both of these assumptions can be challenged! "t is possible that stronger protections
would not greatly affect industry investment or /obs overall, but would instead help to determine
which companies invested heavily and, therefore, provided the /obs! For instance, a less-
restricted market might foster investment and competition among smaller companies, whereas
stronger legal protections might encourage market domination by fewer, larger companies!
"n conclusion, " do not find this argument compelling! %he author must provide evidence that home
security system designs are not being ade<uately protected by current patent, copyright or trade
secret laws! %he author must also provide an argument for the assumptions that stronger laws will
create more industry /obs overall, while the absence of stronger laws will result in fewer industry
/obs!
42. The following appeared in the opinion section of a national newsmaga"ine.
Issue 45
#To re$erse the deterioration of the postal ser$ice! the go$ernment should raise
the price of postage stamps. This solution will no doubt pro$e effecti$e! since the
price increase will generate larger re$enues and will also reduce the $olume of
mail! thereby eliminating the strain on the e%isting system and contributing to
impro$ed morale.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author concludes that a postage-stamp price increase is needed to reduce the deterioration
of the postal service! %he author reasons that raising the price of stamps will accomplish this goal
because it will generate more revenue, thereby eliminating the strain on the system! %he author
further reasons that a price increase will also reduce the volume of mail, thereby improving the
morale of postal workers! %he reasoning in this argument is problematic in three respects!
%he main problem with the argument is the author's mistaken assumption that eliminating strain on
the system and improving employee morale are mutually achievable by way of an increase in stamp
prices! . price increase will generate more revenue only if the volume of mail remains constant or
increases! 2ut, if the volume of mail increases or remains constant, worker morale will not be
improved! On the other hand, if the price increase reduces the volume of mail, revenues may
decrease, and the strain on the system will not be eliminated! Conse<uently, eliminating the strain
on the system and improving the morale of the workers cannot both be achieved by simply raising
the price of postage stamps!
+econdly, the author's conclusion that the proposed price increase is necessary to reduce
deterioration of the postal service relies on the assumption that no other action would achieve the
same result! :owever, the author provides no evidence to substantiate this assumption! "t is
possible, for eample, that careful cost-cutting measures that do not decrease worker morale
might achieve the same goal! "t is also possible that other revenue-enhancing measures that do
not undermine employee morale are available!
%hirdly, the author unfairly assumes that reducing mail volume and increasing revenues will
improve employee morale! %his is not necessarily the case! "t is possible that employee morale is
materially improved only by other means, and that additional revenues will not be used in ways that
improve morale! "t is also possible that a decrease in mail volume will result in a reduction of the
size of the labor force, regardless of revenues, which in turn might undermine morale!
"n conclusion, the author's proposed solution to the problem of the deterioration of the postal
service will not work! Iaising postage-stamp prices cannot bring about both of the outcomes the
author identifies as being necessary to solve the problem! 2efore we can accept the argument, the
author must modify the proposal accordingly and must provide more information about the
relationship between employee morale and mail volume!
43. The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
#There is a common misconception that uni$ersity hospitals are better than
community or pri$ate hospitals. This notion is unfounded! howe$er: the
uni$ersity hospitals in our region employ 15 percent fewer doctors! ha$e a 2'
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percent lower success rate in treating patients! make far less o$erall profit! and
pay their medical staff considerably less than do pri$ate hospitals. urthermore!
many doctors at uni$ersity hospitals typically di$ide their time among teaching!
conducting research! and treating patients. rom this it seems clear that the
9uality of care at uni$ersity hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of
hospitals.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author concludes that university hospitals provide no better care than
private or community hospitals! %he author bases this conclusion on the following claims about
university hospitals7 the ones in this region employ 8& percent fewer doctors; they have a 2@
percent lower success rate in treating patients; they pay their staffs less money; they make less
profit than community hospitals; and they utilize doctors who divide their time between teaching,
research and treating patients! %his argument is unconvincing for several reasons!
%he most egregious reasoning error in the argument is the author's use of evidence pertaining to
university hospitals in this region as the basis for a generalization about all university hospitals!
%he underlying assumption operative in this inference is that university hospitals in this region are
representative of all university hospitals! (o evidence is offered to support this gratuitous
assumption!
+econdly, the only relevant reason offered in support of the claim that the <uality of care is lower
in university hospitals than it is at other hospitals is the fact that university hospitals have a
lower success rate in treating patients! 2ut this reason is not sufficient to reach the conclusion in
<uestion unless it can be shown that the patients treated in both types of hospitals suffered from
similar types of maladies! For eample, if university hospitals routinely treat patients suffering
from rare diseases whereas other hospitals treat only those who suffer from known diseases and
illnesses, the difference in success rates would not be indicative of the <uality of care received!
Finally, the author assumes that the number of doctors a hospital employs, its success rate in
treating patients, the amount it pays its staff, and the profits it earns are all reliable indicators
of the <uality of care it delivers! (o evidence is offered to support this assumption nor is it
obvious that any of these factors is linked to the <uality of care delivered to patients! 0oreover,
the fact that doctors in university hospitals divide their time among many tasks fails to
demonstrate that they do a poorer /ob of treating patients than doctors at other kinds of
hospitals! "n fact, it is highly likely that they do a better /ob because they are more
knowledgeable than other doctors due to their teaching and research!
"n conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument the author would
have to demonstrate that university hospitals in this region are representative of all university
hospitals, as well as establishing a causal link between the various factors cited and the <uality of
care delivered to patients!
44. The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the
3egamart grocery store.
Issue 4)
#Our total sales ha$e increased this year by 2' percent since we added a
pharmacy section to our grocery store. .learly! the customer1s main concern is
the con$enience afforded by one&stop shopping. The surest way to increase our
profits o$er the ne%t couple of years! therefore! is to add a clothing department
along with an automoti$e supplies and repair shop. /e should also plan to
continue adding new departments and ser$ices! such as a restaurant and a garden
shop! in subse9uent years. 4eing the only store in the area that offers such a range
of ser$ices will gi$e us a competiti$e ad$antage o$er other local stores.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he management of the 0egamart grocery store concludes that adding new departments and
services is the surest way to increase profits over the net couple of years! %hey are led to this
conclusion because of a 2@ percent increase in total sates, realized after the addition of a
pharmacy section to the grocery store! On the basis of this eperience, they concluded that the
convenience of one-stop shopping was the main concern of their customers! %he management's
argument is faulty in several respects!
"n the first place, the management assumes that the increase in total sales was due to the
addition of the pharmacy section! :owever, the only evidence offered to support this conclusion is
the fact that the addition of the pharmacy preceded the increase in sales! 2ut the mere fact that
the pharmacy section was added before the increase occurred is insufficient grounds to conclude
that it was responsible for the increase! 0any other factors could bring about this same result!
*acking a detailed analysis of the source of the sales increase, it would be sheer folly to attribute
the increase to the addition of the pharmacy section!
"n the second place, even if it were the case that the increase in total sales was due to the
addition of the pharmacy section, this fact alone is insufficient to support the claim that adding
additional departments will increase sales even further! "t is <uite possible that the addition of
the pharmacy section increased sales simply because there was no other pharmacy in the vicinity!
%he additional proposed departments and services, on the other hand, might be well represented
in the area and their addition might have no impact whatsoever on the profits of the store! "n
other words, there may be relevant differences between the pharmacy section and the additional
proposed sections that preclude them from having a similar effect on the sales of the store!
"n conclusion, the management's argument is not well-reasoned! %o strengthen the conclusion, the
management must provide additional evidence linking the addition of the pharmacy section to the
increase in total sales! "t must also show that there are no eceptional reasons for the sales
increase due to the pharmacy section that would not apply to the other proposed additions!
45. The following appeared as part of a column in a popular entertainment maga"ine.
#The producers of the forthcoming mo$ie 3''3 will be most likely to ma%imi"e
their profits if they are willing to pay @obin =ood se$eral million dollars to star
in itC e$en though that amount is far more than any other person in$ol$ed with
the mo$ie will make. +fter all! @obin has in the past been paid a similar amount
to work in se$eral films that were $ery financially successful.,
4* Catalog
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author concludes that paying Iobin =ood several million dollars to star in the
movie #D@@D$ is the most likely way for the movie's producers to maimize their profits! %he
author's line of reasoning is that because Iobin has been paid similar amounts of money to work in
other films that were financially successful, it is likely that #D@@D$ will also be financially
successful if Iobin stars in it! %his argument is unconvincing in two important respects!
%he main problem with this argument involves the author's assumption that the financial success
of the other films was due entirely to Iobin =ood's participation! "f this were the case, it would
certainly make good sense to pay Iobin handsomely to star in #D@@D!$ :owever, the author offers
no evidence to support this contention!
0oreover, there are many factors that could account for the financial success of the movies in
which Iobin previously appeared, other than the mere fact that Iobin appeared in them! For
eample, their financial success might have been due to the photography, the plot of the story,
the director, or any combination of these! *acking a more detailed analysis of the reasons for the
success of these other movies, it is folly to presume that their financial success was entirely due
to Iobin's participation!
"n conclusion, this is a weak argument! %o strengthen the conclusion that hiring Iobin is the best
way for the producers of #D@@D$ to maimize their profits, the author would have to provide
evidence that the financial success of the movies Iobin previously worked in resulted solely from
the fact that Iobin starred in them!
4-. The following appeared in a memorandum from the directors of a security and
safety consulting ser$ice.
#Our research indicates that o$er the past si% years no incidents of employee theft
ha$e been reported within ten of the companies that ha$e been our clients. In
analy"ing the security practices of these ten companies! we ha$e further learned
that each of them re9uires its employees to wear photo identification badges
while at work. In the future! therefore! we should recommend the use of such
identification badges to all of our clients.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the directors of a security-and safety-consulting service conclude that the use
of photo identification badges should be recommended to all of their clients as a means to prevent
employee theft! %heir conclusion is based on a study revealing that ten of their previous clients
who use photo identification badges have had no incidents of employee theft over the past si-
year period! %he directors' recommendation is problematic in several respects!
"n the first place, the directors' argument is based on the assumption that the reason for the lack
of employee theft in the ten companies was the fact that their employees wear photo
identification badges! :owever, the evidence revealed in their research establishes only a positive
correlation between the lack of theft and the re<uirement to wear badges; it does not establish a
causal connection between them! Other factors, such as the use of surveillance cameras or spot
Issue 4(
checks of employees' briefcases and purses could be responsible for lack of employee theft within
the ten companies analyzed!
"n the second place, the directors assume that employee theft is a problem that is common among
their clients and about which their clients are e<ually concerned! :owever, for some of their
clients this might not be a problem at all! For eample, companies that sell services are much less
likely to be concerned about employee theft than those who sell products! 0oreover, those that
sell small products would be more concerned about theft than those that sell large products!
Conse<uently, even if wearing badges reduces employee theft, it might not be necessary for all of
the firm's clients to follow this practice!
"n conclusion, the director's recommendation is not well supported! %o strengthen the conclusion
they must establish a causal relation between the wearing of identification badges and the
absence of employee theft! %hey also must establish that the firm's clients are sufficiently
similar to all profit from this practice!
4). The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local
newspaper.
#The owners of the .um9uat .afe e$idently made a good business decision in
mo$ing to a new location! as can be seen from the fact that the .afe will soon
celebrate its second anni$ersary there. 3oreo$er! it appears that businesses are
not likely to succeed at the old location: since the .afe1s mo$e! three different
businessesCa tanning salon! an anti9ue emporium! and a petGgrooming shopC
ha$e occupied its former spot.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author concludes that Cum<uat Cafe was correct in its decision to move to a
new location! "n support of this assessment the author points out that while the Cafe has been in
business for two years at its new location, three businesses have failed at its previous location!
%he author's line of reasoning is that the cause of the failure of the three businesses is the fact
that they all occupied the same location! %his argument is problematic in two important respects!
"n the first place, no evidence has been offered to support the assumption that the reason the
three businesses failed was their location! 9hile location is an important contributing factor to a
business' success or failure, it is not the only such factor! 0any other reasonsApoor business
practices, lack of advertising, or poor customer serviceAcould /ust as likely account for their lack
of success! *acking a detailed analysis of the reasons these businesses failed, it would be foolish
to attribute their failure to their location!
"n the second place, while location may have been a factor which contributed to the failure of
these businesses, the reason may not have been the location itself but rather the suitability of
the business to the location! For eample, a pet-grooming shop or a tanning salon located in a
downtown metropolitan business district is unlikely to succeed simply because this type of
business is obviously unsuitable to the location! On the other hand, a bank in the same location
might be etremely successful simply because of its suitability to the location!
5' Catalog
"n conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the conclusion, the author
would have to evaluate other possible causes of the failure of the three businesses, then in each
case eliminate all possible causes ecept location!
4*. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
#The profitability of .roesus .ompany! recently restored to pri$ate ownership! is
a clear indication that businesses fare better under pri$ate ownership than under
public ownership.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
2ased upon the profitability of the Croesus Company and the fact that it was recently converted
from public to private ownership, the author concludes that private ownership is better for
businesses than public ownership! " find this argument unconvincing in two respects!
"n the first place, the evidence the author provides is insufficient to support the conclusion drawn
from it! One eample is rarely sufficient to establish a general conclusion! 4nless it can be shown
that Croesus Company is representative of all companies that have converted from public to
private ownership, the conclusion that all companies would be more profitable under private
ownership is completely unwarranted! "n fact, in the face of such limited evidence it is fallacious
to draw any conclusion at all!
"n the second place, the author assumes that the reason for Croesus' profitability was its
conversion from public to private ownership! %his assumption, however, is not supported in the
argument! "n the absence of evidence to support this assumption many other eplanations for
Croesus Company's profitability are possible! For eample, its success may be due to the fact that
Croesus has few competitors or because the product or service it provides is uni<ue, or because it
has an eceptionally skilled management team!
"n conclusion, this argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the conclusion, additional eamples of
successful companies that converted from public to private ownership are re<uired! .dditionally,
the author would have to show that the reason for the success of these companies was the fact
that they were privately owned!
4(. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
#If the paper from e$ery morning edition of the nation1s largest newspaper were
collected and rendered into paper pulp that the newspaper could reuse! about 5
million trees would be sa$ed each year. This kind of recycling is unnecessary!
howe$er! since the newspaper maintains its own forests to ensure an
uninterrupted supply of paper.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his editorial begins with the impressive statistic that five-million trees could be saved every
year if the morning edition of the nation's largest newspaper were collected and rendered into
pulp that the newspaper could reuse! 2ut then the author goes on to conclude that this kind of
recycling is unnecessary because the newspaper maintains its own forests to ensure an
Issue 51
uninterrupted supply of paper! %his argument is seriously flawed by two unwarranted assumptions!
%he first assumption is that the only reason to recycle the newspaper is to ensure a continuous
supply of paper! %he author reasons that since this need is currently met by the forests that the
newspaper maintains, recycling is unnecessary! %his reasoning is etremely shortsighted! (ot only
does the author fail to see the ecological advantages of preserving the trees, he also fails to see
the obvious economic advantages of doing this! 0oreover, using recycled paper is the best way to
ensure a continuous paper supply because, unlike the forest, paper is a reusable resource!
%he second assumption is that only the newspaper would have an interest in the pulp processed
from its recycled morning edition! %his is probably not the case, however, given the enormous
market for recycled paperAfor books, packaging, other newspapers, and so on! 0oreover, there is
no direct connection between the newspaper that is recycled and those companies that find uses
for the products of recycling! .ccordingly, contrary to the author's assumption, there may be a
great interest, indeed a need, for pulp from recycling the newspaper in <uestion!
"n conclusion, the author's claim that recycling the newspaper is unnecessary is ill-founded! %o
strengthen the argument the author would have to show that there are no other compelling
reasons to recycle the newspaper besides the one cited in the editorial!
5'. The following appeared as part of a business plan recommended by the new
manager of a musical rock group called Aapped.
#To succeed financially! Aapped needs greater name recognition. It should
therefore di$ersify its commercial enterprises. The rock group Aonked plays the
same type of music that Aapped plays! but it is much better known than Aapped
because in addition to its concert tours and four albums! Aonked has a series of
posters! a line of clothing and accessories! and a contract with a ma7or ad$ertising
agency to endorse a number of different products.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he new manager of the rock group Happed believes that name recognition is the key to attaining
financial success for the group! %o increase name recognition the manager recommends that
Happed diversify its commercial enterprises! %he grounds for this recommendation is an analogy
with Honked, a much better-known rock group that plays the same kind of music as Happed!
.ccording to the manager, the main reason Honked is better known than Happed is that Honked
participates in several promotional enterprises in addition to concerts and albums! %he manager's
recommendation is <uestionable for two reasons!
"n the first place, the author assumes that the only relevant difference between Happed and
Honked is that Honked has greater name recognition than Happed! "f this were the case, the
manager's recommendation would be apt! :owever, the fact that the two rock groups play the
same kind of music leaves open the <uestion of whether their performance of this music is
comparable! "f Honked's performance is sufficiently better than Happed's, this could go a long way
toward eplaining why Honked is much better known!
"n the second place, the author assumes that name recognition is all that is re<uired for financial
52 Catalog
success! 9hile name recognition is an important element in determining the success or failure of
any enterprise, it is hardly the only element re<uired! Other factors are e<ually important! "n the
case of rock bands, factors such as musical talent, showmanship, and repertoire play a significant
role in determining the financial success of the group! "f Honked is superior to Happed in these
areas, this difference could account for Honked's financial success!
"n conclusion, the manager's argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument the author
would have to show that Happed and Honked are alike in all relevant ways ecept name recognition!
51. The following appeared in a maga"ine article on trends and lifestyles.
#In general! people are not as concerned as they were a decade ago about
regulating their intake of red meat and fatty cheeses. /alk into the 5eart1s
2elight! a store that started selling organic fruits and $egetables and whole&grain
flours in the 1(-'1s! and you will also find a wide selection of cheeses made with
high butterfat content. ?e%t door! the owners of the =ood 6arth .afH! an old
$egetarian restaurant! are still making a modest li$ing! but the owners of the new
5ouse of 4eef across the street are millionaires.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author of an article about lifestyle trends concludes that, in general, people are not as
concerned as they were a decade ago with regulating their intake of red meat and fatty cheeses!
.s evidence, the author cites the fact that a wide selection of high-fat cheeses is now available at
a long-established grocery store, :eart's ,elight, which specializes in organic fruits and
vegetables and whole grains! %he author further points out that the owners of the vegetarian
restaurant net door, =ood Barth Cafe, now make only a modest living while the owners of the new
:ouse of 2eef across the street are millionaires! %his argument is unconvincing!
%o begin with, the argument relies on the assumption that the dietary habits and attitudes of
customers at these three businesses will reflect those of people generally! 2ut the three
businesses, all located in the same area of a single community, /ust might serve a clientele whose
diets differ greatly from the diets of people in other areas of the community, or in other
communities! %he generalization that the author draws from this biased sample cannot be
considered reliable!
"n addition, trends at these three businesses do not necessarily reflect the dietary habits and
attitudes of their customers in the way the author claims! For eample, we are not informed about
how well the high-fat cheeses at :eart's ,elight are selling relative to low-fat and nonfat
alternatives! +imilarly, it is possible that at :ouse of 2eef menu items other than red meatAsuch
as chicken, fish, or salad barAare /ust as popular as red meat among the restaurant's patrons!
Finally, the author assumes that the financial conditions of the owners of the two restaurants
were caused by a general lack of concern with regulating red meat and fatty-cheese intake!
:owever, it is e<ually possible that the lackluster financial success of =ood Barth was caused by
mismanagement or increasing overhead costs! Furthermore, it is possible that :ouse of 2eef is
generating little business, but its owners were already millionaires before they opened this
Issue 53
restaurant or are making their money in other concurrent business endeavors!
"n conclusion, the author's evidence is too weak to support any conclusion about general dietary
trends! 2efore we can accept the conclusion, the author must provide evidence from a
representative sample of food-service businesses, and must clearly show that sates of red meat
and fatty cheeses are increasing relative to sales of low-fat alternatives! %he author must also
provide evidence that the financial conditions of the owners of the two restaurants were actually
caused by a general waning concern with regulating fat intake!
52. The following editorial appeared in the 6lm .ity paper.
#The construction last year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak .ity was a
mistake. 0ince the mall has opened! a number of local businesses ha$e closed!
and the downtown area suffers from an acute parking shortage! and arrests for
crime and $agrancy ha$e increased in the nearby Oak .ity 8ark. 6lm .ity should
pay attention to the e%ample of the Oak .ity mall and deny the application to
build a shopping mall in 6lm .ity.,!"
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
#The construction of last year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak .ity has done
little for the residents of the community. 0ince the mall has opened! a number of
local businesses ha$e closed! and the downtown area suffers from an acute
parking shortage. In addition! because the mall1s owner li$es in nearby 6lm .ity!
the profits deri$ed from sales at the mall are not being returned to the community.
These problems! coupled with the increase in trash and litter in nearby Oak .ity
park! demonstrate that Oak .ity did not use good 7udgment in allowing the
construction of the mall in the first place.,IJ
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
56"n this editorial the author rebukes Oak City for allowing the construction of a
new downtown shopping mall! Citing a number of problems that have occurred since the building of
the mail, the author concludes that the residents of Oak City have not benefited from the mail
and that Oak City eercised poor /udgment in allowing the mail to be built! .mong the problems
cited by the author are the closure of local businesses, lack of parking in the downtown area, and
increased trash and litter in a city park near the mall! 0oreover, the author argues that profits
derived from sales are not benefiting Oak City because the owner of the mall lives in another city!
%he author's argument is problematic in several respects!
"n the first place, the author assumes that addition of the new mall is the cause of the various
problems cited! %he only evidence offered to support this claim is that the construction of the
mall occurred before these problems manifested themselves! :owever, this evidence is
insufficient to establish the claim in <uestion! . chronological relationship is only one of the
indicators of a causal relationship between two events!
54 Catalog
"n the second place, the author has focused only on negative effects the mall has had on the city!
. more detailed analysis of the situation might reveal that the positive benefits for the city far
outweigh the problems on which the author focuses! For eample, new /obs might have been
created for the residents of Oak City, and ta revenues might have been increased for the city!
*acking a more comprehensive analysis of the impact of the mail on Oak City, it is presumptuous on
the part of the author to conclude that Oak City's decision to allow the mall to be built was
incorrect!
"n conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument the author would
have to demonstrate that the construction of the mall caused the various problems mentioned!
%he author would also have to show that the negative effects of the pro/ect outweighed the
positive effects!
53. The following appeared as part of an editorial in a weekly newsmaga"ine.
#5istorically! most of this country1s engineers ha$e come from our uni$ersitiesB
recently! howe$er! our uni$ersity&age population has begun to shrink! and
decreasing enrollments in our high schools clearly show that this drop in numbers
will continue throughout the remainder of the decade. .onse9uently! our nation
will soon be facing a shortage of trained engineers. If we are to remain
economically competiti$e in the world marketplace! then! we must increase
funding for educationCand 9uickly.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
.n editorial in a weekly news magazine warns that we must <uickly increase funding for education
in order to remain economically competitive in the world marketplace! %he line of reasoning is that
the nation will soon face a shortage of engineers because engineers have come from universities,
and that our university-age population is shrinking! 0oreover, decreasing enrollments in high
schools clearly show that this drop in university-age students will continue throughout the decade!
%he author's argument is not convincing because it is based on several <uestionable assumptions!
First, the author assumes that because our university-age population is shrinking, university
enrollments will likewise shrink! 2ut even if the number of university-age students is dropping, it is
possible that a greater proportion of those students will enter universities! "f this percentage
were sufficiently large, university enrollments could remain relatively stable! 0oreover, even if
overall university enrollments did drop, we must further assume that the number of engineering
students would likewise drop! :owever, decreases in overall enrollments do no necessarily result in
proportional enrollment decreases in each field of study! "f demand for engineers were high, then
a larger percentage of university students might study to become engineers, in which case
engineering enrollments could increase or remain constant, while those in other ma/or fields of
study would drop disproportionately!
.n additional assumption is that economic success in the world marketplace depends on the
number of engineers produced by our universities! %his assumption is simplistic! -rofessionals in
other fieldsAsuch as agriculture, banking, and businessAmay contribute e<ually to our global
success! %he author does not eplain why the predicted shortage of engineers is more critical
Issue 55
than shortages in other fields that might result from shrinking university enrollments! (or does
the author demonstrate that providing more funds for education will correct the predicted
shortage of engineers! Bven if all of the previous assumptions are accepted, no connection
between increased funding and the desired enrollment increase has been established!
"n conclusion, the author has failed to make a convincing case for increased funding for education!
2efore we accept the conclusion, the author must provide evidence that we face a critical
shortage of engineers, and that increased funding will have direct bearing on correcting this
shortage! .s it stands, both these claims rest on unwarranted assumptions!
54. The following appeared in an 6%celsior .ompany memorandum.
#The 6%celsior .ompany plans to introduce its own brand of coffee. 0ince coffee
is an e%pensi$e food item! and since there are already many established brands of
coffee! the best way to gain customers for the 6%celsior brand is to do what
0uperior! the leading coffee company! did when it introduced the newest brand in
its line of coffees: conduct a temporary sales promotion that offers free samples!
price reductions! and discount coupons for the new brand.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his company memorandum recommends that Bcelsior conduct a temporary sales promotion for
its new brand of coffee that includes offering free samples, price reductions, and discount
coupons! %his recommendation is based on the fact that +uperior, the leading coffee company,
used /ust such a promotion to introduce the newest brand in its line of coffees! %his argument is
unconvincing because it relies on three <uestionable assumptions!
First of all, the argument rests on the assumption that a promotional strategy that works for one
company will work for another! :owever, Bcelsior and +uperior may not be sufficiently similar to
warrant this assumption! -romotional techni<ues that work for a leader with established name
recognition for its brand of coffees may be ineffective for a company with no similar name
recognition new to the brand coffee market! .ccordingly, Bcelsior might be better advised to
employ some other strategy, such as a media advertising plan, to first attain broad name
recognition!
%he argument also depends on the assumption that Bcelsior can afford a promotional plan similar
to +uperior's! :owever, free samples, price reductions, and discounts all reduce profits and may
actually result in temporary losses! 9hile a leading company with other profitable products in the
same line can absorb a temporary loss, for a fledgling competitor this strategy might be very risky
and may even result in business failure!
Finally, the argument relies on the assumption that +uperior's promotional campaign for its newest
coffee was successful! :owever, the memo provides no evidence that this was the case! "t is
possible that the promotion was entirely ineffective, and that +uperior remains the leader in its
field despite this small failure! "f so, Bcelsior may be ill-advised to follow +uperior's promotional
strategy!
"n conclusion, the two companies are too dissimilar to /ustify the recommendation that Bcelsior
5- Catalog
model its promotional strategy on +uperior's! %o strengthen the argument, the author of the
memo must establish that Bcelsior has sufficient operating capital to launch the recommended
sales campaign, and that this strategy would be more effective than another strategy, such as
using etensive media advertising!
55. The following appeared as part of an article in a health club trade publication.
#+fter e%periencing a decline in usage by its members! 5ealthy 5eart fitness
center built an indoor pool. 0ince usage did not increase significantly! it appears
that health club managers should adopt another approachClowering membership
fees rather than installing e%pensi$e new features.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
2ecause :ealthy :eart fitness centers eperienced no significant increase in member usage as a
result of building a new indoor pool, the author cautions other health dub managers against
installing new features as a means of increasing member usage, instead, they are advised to lower
membership fees! %his argument is flawed in two critical respects!
First, the conclusion that installing new features at fitness centers will not increase member
usage is based on too small a sample to be reliable! %he only evidence offered in support of this
conclusion is the fact that :ealthy :eart fitness center did not eperience an increase! 4nless it
can be shown that :ealthy :eart is typical of all fitness centers, the fact that it eperienced no
increase in member usage is not grounds for concluding that all fitness centers will eperience
similar results!
+econd, the author fails to consider other possible reasons why building an indoor pool failed to
increase :ealthy :eart's member usage! -erhaps :ealthy :eart's members are primarily
interested in body-building rather than cardiovascular eercise, or perhaps they prefer
rac<uetball; or perhaps they /ust don't like swimming! Ieasons such as these would help to eplain
why the addition of a new indoor pool failed to increase member usage! %he author's failure to
investigate or even consider other possible eplanations for :ealthy :eart's poor results renders
the conclusion based upon them highly suspect!
"n conclusion, the author's argument is not convincing! %o strengthen the argument it would be
necessary to show that :ealthy :eart fitness center is typical of all fitness centers! .dditionally,
the author would have to show that other possible reasons for the lack of increase in member
usage could be eliminated!
5-. The following appeared as part of an article in a popular arts and leisure maga"ine.
#The safety codes go$erning the construction of public buildings are becoming
far too strict. The surest way for architects and builders to pro$e that they ha$e
met the minimum re9uirements established by these codes is to construct
buildings by using the same materials and methods that are currently allowed. 4ut
doing so means that there will be $ery little significant technological inno$ation
within the industry! and hence little e$olution of architectural styles and designC
merely because of the strictness of these safety codes.,
Issue 5)
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he conclusion of this argument is that technological innovation as well as the evolution of
architectural styles and design will be minimized in the future! %he author's line of reasoning is
that the imposition of strict safety codes on public buildings inhibits the evolution of
architectural styles and design, because they discourage technological innovation within the
building industry! Furthermore, the strictness of the codes governing public buildings discourages
technological innovation because the surest way for architects and builders to pass the codes is to
construct buildings that use the same materials and methods that are currently allowed! %his
argument is unconvincing for two reasons!
"n the first place, the author's conclusion goes beyond the evidence presented! %he evidence cited
pertains only to the construction of public buildings, yet the author draws a conclusion about the
building industry as a whole! %echnological innovation and architectural eperimentation in style
and design in the construction of private buildings is not precluded by the reasons cited!
Conse<uently, in the absence of evidence that similar problems beset the construction of privately
owned buildings, the author's conclusion is not warranted!
"n the second place, it is not evident that the strict safety codes governing public buildings will
have the effects predicted by the author! .rchitectural styles and design are not dictated solely
by the materials or the methods employed in construction! Conse<uently, it is premature to
conclude that little evolution in style and design will occur because the materials and methods will
likely remain the same! 0oreover, technological innovation is not restricted to the use of new
materials and methods! +ignificant technological innovation can be achieved by applying eisting
methods to new situations and by finding new uses for familiar materials!
"n conclusion, the author has failed to make the case for the claim that technological innovation as
well as the evolution of architectural styles and design will be minimized in the future! %o
strengthen the argument the author would have to show that similar safety code restrictions
impede the evolution of the design and the innovation of new technologies in the construction of
private buildings! .dditionally, the author must show that materials and methods are the prime
determinants of architectural style and design!
5). The following is from a campaign by 4ig 4oards! Inc.! to con$ince companies in
@i$er .ity that their sales will increase if they use 4ig 4oards billboards for
ad$ertising their locally manufactured products.
#The potential of 4ig 4oards to increase sales of your products can be seen from
an e%periment we conducted last year. /e increased public awareness of the
name of the current national women1s marathon champion by publishing her
picture and her name on billboards in @i$er .ity for a period of three months.
4efore this time! although the champion had 7ust won her title and was recei$ing
e%tensi$e national publicity! only fi$e percent of 15!''' randomly sur$eyed
residents of @i$er .ity could correctly name the champion when shown her
pictureB after the three&month ad$ertising e%periment! 35 percent of respondents
from a second sur$ey could supply her name.,
5* Catalog
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n an advertising eperiment, 2ig 2oard, "nc! displayed the name and picture of a! little-known
athlete on several of its local billboards over a D-month period! 2ecause the eperiment increased
recognition of the athlete's name, 2ig 2oards now argues that local companies will increase their
sales if they advertise their products on 2ig 2oard's billboards! %his argument is unconvincing for
two important reasons!
%he main problem with this argument is that the advertising eperiment with the athlete shows
only that name recognition can be increased by billboard advertising; it does not show that
product sales can be increased by this form of advertising! (ame recognition, while admittedly an
important aspect of a product's selling potential, is not the only reason merchandise sells!
.ffordability, <uality, and desirability are e<ually, if not more, important features a product must
possess in order to sell! %o suggest, as 2ig 2oard's campaign does, that name recognition alone is
sufficient to increase sales is simply ludicrous!
.nother problem with the argument is that while the first surveyAin which only five percent of
8&,@@@ randomly-selected residents could name the athleteAseems reliable, the results of the
second survey are <uestionable on two grounds! First, the argument provides no information
regarding how many residents were polled in the second survey or how they were selected!
+econdly, the argument does not indicate the total number of respondents to the second survey!
"n the absence of this information about the second survey, it is impossible to determine the
significance of its results!
"n conclusion, 2ig 2oard's argument is not convincing! %o strengthen the argument, 2ig 2oard must
provide additional information regarding the manner in which the second survey was conducted! "t
must also provide additional evidence that an increase in name recognition will result in an increase
in sales!
5*. The following appeared as part of an article on go$ernment funding of
en$ironmental regulatory agencies.
#/hen scientists finally learn how to create large amounts of copper from other
chemical elements! the regulation of copper mining will become unnecessary. or
one thing! since the amount of potentially a$ailable copper will no longer be
limited by the 9uantity of actual copper deposits! the problem of o$ermining will
9uickly be eliminated altogether. or another! manufacturers will not need to use
synthetic copper substitutes! the production of which creates pollutants. Thus!
since two problems will be settledCo$ermining and pollutionCit makes good
sense to reduce funding for mining regulation and either sa$e the money or
reallocate it where it is needed more.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author contends that it makes good sense to reduce funding for mining regulation, because
regulatory problems with over-mining and pollution will be solved when scientists learn how to
create large amounts of copper from other chemical elements! One reason the author gives for
Issue 5(
this conclusion is that the problem of over-mining will be <uickly eliminated when the amount of
potentially available copper is no longer limited by the <uantity of actual copper deposits! .nother
reason given is that pollution problems created by production of synthetic copper substitutes will
be eliminated when manufacturers no longer depend on substitutes! %his argument is weak because
the conclusion goes beyond the scope of the premises and because the argument relies on
<uestionable assumptions!
%o begin with, the wording of the conclusion suggests that funding for mining regulation generally
should be reduced, yet the premises are about copper mining only! %here are many mined
resources other than copper; advances in copper synthesis technology will in all likelihood have no
bearing on whether regulation of other kinds of mining should be changed!
Furthermore, the argument depends on the assumption that copper mining will slow down once
copper can be chemically synthesized! :owever, the author provides no evidence to substantiate
this assumption! 0oreover, it is entirely possible that copper mining will remain less epensive
than copper synthesis! "f so, there will be no incentives, outside of regulatory ones, to slow down
copper mining! "n a word, the problem of over-mining will remain!
Finally, the argument relies on the assumption that synthesizing copper will not create the same
kind of pollution problems as those resulting from the synthesis of copper substitutes! :owever,
the author provides no evidence to substantiate this assumption! 9ithout such evidence, we
cannot accept the premise that pollution problems will be eliminated by switching from producing
copper substitutes to producing copper itself!
"n conclusion, " am not convinced on the basis of this argument that the time has come to cut
funding for the regulation of mining in general, or even for the regulation of copper mining in
particular! %o strengthen the argument, the author must restrict the scope of the conclusion to
copper mining rather than to mining in general! %he author must also provide support for the two
assumptions underlying the argument!
5(. The following appeared as part of an article in a popular science maga"ine.
#0cientists must typically work -' to *' hours a week if they hope to further their
careersB conse9uently! good and affordable allday child care must be made
a$ailable to both male and female scientists if they are to ad$ance in their fields.
3oreo$er! re9uirements for career ad$ancement must be made more fle%ible so
that preschool&age children can spend a significant portion of each day with a
parent.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his editorial argues that, since career advancement for scientists typically re<uires J@ to L@
hours of work per week, affordable all-day child care must be made available to scientists of both
genders if they are to advance in their fields! 0oreover, the editorial urges that re<uirements for
career advancement be made more fleible to insure that pre-school children can spend a
significant amount of time each day with a parent! %his argument is problematic in two crucial
respects!
-' Catalog
%he ma/or problem with the view epressed in the article is that inconsistent recommendations
are endorsed in the argument! On the one hand, scientists are urged to put their children in all-
day child-care facilities in order to advance their careers! On the other hand, they are
encouraged to spend a significant amount of time each day with their children! Obviously,
scientists cannot be epected to adhere to both of these recommendations!
.nother problem is that the recommendations are based on the assumption that all, or at least
most, scientists have young or preschool-age children! 2ut the editorial provides no evidence to
support this assumption, nor is this assumption very likely to be true! +ince, childless scientists or
scientists whose children are old enough to take care of themselves will have no need for the
services advocated in this article, it is doubtful that these recommendations will receive much
widespread support!
"n conclusion, this argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen it, the author must show that most
scientists have preschool children and conse<uently are in need of the recommended services!
.dditionally, the author must address and resolve the apparent conflict between the
recommendations!
-'. The following appeared as part of a recommendation by one of the directors of the
4eta .ompany.
#The +lpha .ompany has 7ust reduced its workforce by laying off fifteen percent
of its employees in all di$isions and at all le$els! and it is encouraging early
retirement for other employees. +s you know! the 4eta .ompany manufactures
some products similar to +lpha1s! but our profits ha$e fallen o$er the last few
years. To impro$e 4eta1s competiti$e position! we should try to hire a significant
number of +lpha1s former workers! since these e%perienced workers can pro$ide
$aluable information about +lpha1s successful methods! will re9uire little
training! and will be particularly moti$ated to compete against +lpha.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
. director of 2eta Company suggests that 2eta can improve its competitive position by hiring a
significant number of former .lpha Company employees who have recently retired or been laid off!
%he director's reasoning is that because .lpha manufactures some products similar to 2eta's,
former .lpha employees would be eperienced and need little training, could provide valuable
information about .lpha's successful methods, and would be particularly motivated to compete
against .lpha! %he director's argument is problematic in several respects!
First of all, the argument presupposes that .lpha's methods are successful! %his is not necessarily
the case! %o the contrary, the fact that .lpha has laid off 8& percent of its employees in every
division and at every level suggests that .lpha's methods may have been unsuccessful and that
downsizing was necessary for the company to minimize financial losses!
+econdly, the director assumes that the former .lpha employees hired by 2eta will be well-
trained and valuable! ,uring a typical lay-off, however, the best and most eperienced employees
are typically the last to be laid off! 2y following the director's advice, 2eta would probably be
Issue -1
hiring .lpha's least efficient and least eperienced employeesAthat is, those who would be least
valuable to 2eta!
%hirdly, the author assumes that .lpha and 2eta are sufficiently similar so that former .lpha
employees could provide special value for 2eta! :owever, we are informed only that 2eta
manufactures #some products similar to .lpha's!$ "t is possible that former .lpha employees have
eperience with only a small segment of 2eta's product line, and thus have little inside information
of any value to 2eta!
Finally, the claim that former .lpha employees would be motivated to compete against .lpha is
partially unwarranted! 9hile many of those who were laid off may be so motivated, those who
retired early from .lpha probably departed on good terms with .lpha, and would in any event be
unmotivated to reenter the work force!
"n conclusion, the argument fails to provide key facts needed to assess it! %o better evaluate the
director's suggestion, we would need more information about why .lpha reduced its work force,
what type of workers left .lpha and under what circumstances, and how similar .lpha's range of
products is to 2eta's!
-1. The following appeared in the letters&to&the&editor section of a local newspaper.
#3uscle 3onthly! a fitness maga"ine that regularly features pictures of
bodybuilders using state&of&the&art e%ercise machines! fre9uently sells out!
according to the owner of 0ky$iew ?ewsstand. To help ma%imi"e fitness le$els in
our town1s residents! we should! therefore! e9uip our new community fitness
center with such machines.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author concludes that the new community fitness center should be e<uipped
with the state-of-the-art eercise machines featured in 0uscle 0onthly magazine! "n support of
this recommendation two reasons are offered7 586 0uscle 0onthly contains pictures of
bodybuilders using such machines, and 526 0uscle 0onthly is a popular magazine, as evidenced by
the fact that it fre<uently sells out at the local newsstand! %his argument is <uestionable on two
counts!
First, a ma/or implication of the argument is that the bodybuilders pictured using the machines in
0uscle 0onthly magazine reached their state of fitness as a result of using these machines! %he
only evidence offered to support this contention, however, is the pictures in the magazine! "t is
possible that the bodybuilders pictured use different e<uipment for their workouts and are
merely posing with the machines for advertising purposes!
+econd, the author assumes that machines that are suitable for bodybuilding will also be suitable
to help maimize the fitness levels of the town's residents! %his assumption is highly <uestionable!
0achines designed to increase muscle development are significantly different from those
designed to increase cardiovascular fitness! Conse<uently, it is unlikely that the machines pictured
in the magazine will be of much use to help maimize the fitness levels of the town's residents!
-2 Catalog
"n conclusion, this argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument the author would have to
show that the bodybuilders pictured using the eercise machines actually used the machines to
reach their level of muscle development! .dditionally, the author would have to show that the
machines were suitable for increasing the fitness levels of the persons using them!
-2. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local
newspaper.
#The .um9uat .afe made a mistake in mo$ing to a new location. +fter one year
at the new spot! it is doing about the same $olume of business as before! but the
owners of the @obo/rench plumbing supply wholesale outlet that took o$er its
old location are apparently doing better: @obo/rench is planning to open a store
in a neighboring city.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
.ccording to this newspaper article, the Cum<uat Cafe made a mistake by relocating one year ago!
%he author supports this claim by pointing out that Cum<uat is doing about the same volume of
business as before it moved, while Iobo9rench plumbing supply outlet, which took over Cum<uat's
old location, is apparently #doing better$ because its owners plan to open a new outlet in a nearby
city! %his argument suffers from several critical flaws!
%o begin with, the two businesses are too dissimilar for meaningful comparison! Cum<uat's old
location may simply have been better suited to hardware, plumbing, and home improvement
businesses than to cafes and restaurants! %he article's claim that Cum<uat made a mistake in
moving fails to take this possibility into account!
+econdly, the article's claim that Iobo9rench is #doing better$ since it took over Cum<uat's old
location is too vague to be meaningful! %he author fails to provide a second term of this
comparison! 9e are not informed whether Iobo9rench is doing better than before it moved,
better than other plumbing stores, or better than Cum<uat! %his uninformative comparison is
worthless as evidence from which to /udge the wisdom of Cum<uat's decision to relocate!
%hirdly, the claim that Iobo9rench is doing better is unwarranted by the evidence! %he mere
fact that Iobo9rench plans to open a new store in a nearby city does not by itself establish that
business is good! "t is possible that the purpose of this plan is to compensate for lackluster
business at the current location! Or perhaps the Iobo9rench owners are simply eercising poor
business /udgment!
Finally, the claim that Cum<uat made a mistake in moving may be too hasty, since the conclusion is
based on only one year's business at the new location! 0oreover, given the time it ordinarily takes
for a business to develop a new customer base in a new location, the fact that Cum<uat's volume of
business is about the same as before it moved tends to show that the move was a good decision,
not a mistake!
"n conclusion, the claim that Cum<uat's move was a mistake is ill-founded, since it is based on both
poor and incomplete comparisons as well as on a premature conclusion! %o better assess the
argument, we need to know what the author is comparing Iobo9rench's performance to; we also
Issue -3
need more information about the etent of Iobo9rench's success at this location and why its
owners are opening a new store!
-3. The following appeared in a memorandum from the 2irector of 5uman @esources
to the e%ecuti$e officers of .ompany F.
#Dast year! we sur$eyed our employees on impro$ements needed at .ompany F
by ha$ing them rank! in order of importance! the issues presented in a list of
possible impro$ements. Impro$ed communications between employees and
management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the
employees who responded to the sur$ey. +s you know! we ha$e since instituted
regular communications sessions conducted by high&le$el management! which
the employees can attend on a $oluntary basis. Therefore! it is likely that most
employees at .ompany F now feel that the impro$ement most needed at the
company has been made.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.!!
"#$%&'()*+,-./01234567"
%he ,irector of :uman Iesources concludes that most employees at Company K feel that the
improvement most needed at the company has been satisfactorily addressed! %wo reasons are
offered in support of this conclusion! First, a survey of employees showed that the issue
respondents were most concerned about was employee-management communication! +econd, the
company has since instituted regular voluntary sessions for employees and management designed
to improve communication! %he director's argument is <uestionable for two reasons!
%o begin with, the validity of the survey is doubtful! *acking information about the number of
employees surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the
results! For eample, if 2@@ employees were surveyed but only two responded, the conclusion that
most of the employees ranked employee-management communication as the most pressing issue
would be highly suspect! 2ecause the argument offers no evidence that would rule out
interpretations such as this, the survey results are insufficient to support the author's conclusion!
Furthermore, even if the survey accurately ranks certain issues according to level of employee
concern, the highest-ranked issue in the survey might not be the issue about which employees are
most concerned! 9hy3 %he improvement most needed from the point of view of the employees
might not have appeared as one of the choices on the survey! For eample, if the list of
improvements presented on the survey was created by management rather than by the employees,
then the issues of greatest concern to the employees might not be included on the list! *acking
information about how the survey was prepared, it is impossible to assess its reliability!
Conse<uently, any conclusion based on it is highly <uestionable!
"n conclusion, the director's conclusion is not well-founded! %o strengthen the argument,
additional information regarding the way in which the employee survey was prepared and
conducted is re<uired!
-4 Catalog
-4. The following appeared in a memorandum from the $ice president of @oad ood!
an international chain of fast&food restaurants.
#This past year! we spent almost as much on ad$ertising as did our main
competitor! 0treet 6ats! which has fewer restaurants than we do. +lthough it
appeared at first that our ad$ertising agency had created a campaign along the
lines we suggested! in fact our total profits were lower than those of 0treet 6ats.
In order to moti$ate our ad$ertising agency to perform better! we should start
basing the amount that we pay it on how much total profit we make each year.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.!89:;<=>"
"n this memorandum, the vice president of Ioad Food suggests that the company motivate its
advertising agency to perform better by basing the agency's pay on the Ioad Food's profits! "n
support of this suggestion, the vice president points out that although Ioad Food initially thought
the ad agency was following company recommendations, competitor, +treet Bats earned higher
profits last year! %he vice president also notes that +treet Bats has fewer restaurants than Ioad
Food, and that Ioad Food spent nearly as much money on advertising as +treet Bats did! %his
argument is unconvincing, since it relies on dubious assumptions and comparisons!
First, the vice president assumes that the ad campaign caused the low profits! :owever, the vice
president ignores many other factors that contribute to profitability! "n particular, the fact that
Ioad Food has been spending less advertising money per restaurant than +treet Bats suggests
that its unwillingness to spend more may be the main reason for disappointing profits!
+econd, the author implies that the ad agency failed to implement Ioad Food's guidelines, and that
this failure was the reason for disappointing profits! :owever, it is e<ually possible that the ad
agency faithfully followed all suggestions from Ioad Food, and that those suggestions were the
cause of the disappointing profits! "n this respect, the author unfairly shifts blame from Ioad
Food to the ad agency!
%hird, the author's comparison between Ioad Food and +treet Bats is less relevant than a
comparison between Ioad Food's own profits prior to its latest ad campaign and its profits during
this campaign! Comparing its own profits during these time periods would more accurately reflect
the ad agency's effectiveness than comparing profits of two different companies!
Finally, the author assumes that the ad agency will be more motivated if its fee is based on Ioad
Food profits! :owever, the author does not support this claim! "n fact, given that Ioad Food's
profits have been lower than epected, it is /ust as likely that the ad agency would be less
motivated by the suggested fee structure than by some other fee structure!
"n conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands! %o strengthen it, the vice president must
provide evidence that the ad campaign caused last year's disappointing profits, and must eamine
and rule out other factors that may have contributed to disappointing profits!
-5. The following appeared in the promotional literature for .erberus dog food.
#Obesity is a great problem among pet dogs! 7ust as it is among their human
Issue -5
owners. Obesity in humans is typically caused by consuming more calories than
the body needs. or humans! a proper diet for losing weight is a reduced&calorie
diet that is high in fiber and carbohydrates but low in fat. Therefore! the best way
for dog owners to help their dogs lose weight in a healthy way is to restrict the
dog1s diet to .erberus reduced&calorie dog food! which is high in fiber and
carbohydrates but low in fat.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.!?@ABC"#
$DEFGH#@IJKHLMNO)P>7QRST"
"n this argument the makers of Cerberus dog food recommend their reduced-calorie product as
the best way for dog owners to help their obese dogs lose weight! %heir reasoning in support of
this recommendation is simple! %o begin with, they point out that the best way to treat obesity in
humans is by a reduced-calorie diet that is high in fiber and carbohydrates but low in fat! +econd,
they indicate that reduced-calorie Cerberus dog food is high in fiber and carbohydrates but low in
fat! %he conclusion drawn from this information is that Cerberus dog food is the best way to treat
obesity in dogs! %his argument is unconvincing for a couple of reasons!
"n the first place, the makers of Cerberus dog food assume that the cause of obesity in dogs is
the same as the cause in humans! =iven the vast differences between the eercise patterns and
basic diets of humans and dogs, this assumption is highly dubious! *acking evidence to support this
claim, the argument is unacceptable!
"n the second place, the author assumes that the gastrointestinal systems of dogs and humans are
sufficiently similar to ensure that treatment that is effective on humans will be e<ually effective
on dos! .gain, this is a highly dubious assumption due to the obvious physiological differences
between humans and dogs! +ince no evidence has been offered to support this assumption, it too
can be re/ected!
"n conclusion, this argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument evidence is re<uired to
substantiate the assumption that dogs and humans are sufficiently similar in both their diets and
their physiology to warrant similar treatment!
--. The following appeared in an article in a tra$el maga"ine.
#+fter the airline industry began re9uiring airlines to report their on&time rates!
0peedee +irlines achie$ed the number one on&time rate! with o$er *( percent of
its flights arri$ing on time each month. +nd now 0peedee is offering more flights
to more destinations than e$er before. .learly! 0peedee is the best choice for
today1s business tra$eler.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
. travel magazine article claims that +peedee .irlines is the best choice for today's business
traveler! %o support this claim, the author points out that +peedee has ranked first in terms of
on-time arrival rate since the airline industry began re<uiring airlines to report their on-time
-- Catalog
rates! %he claim is also based on the assertion that #+peedee new offers more flights to more
destination than ever before!$ %his argument suffers from several critical flaws!
First of all, the claim relies on a couple of unwarranted assumptions! One assumption is that on-
time rates, number of flights, and destination choices are the only features of airlines service
that determine how a particular airline would rank overall for a business traveler! :owever, the
author of this article ignores other factors such as fare prices and discounts, safety record,
baggage-handing, and in-flight amenities! .nother assumption is that +peedee's overall on-time
record affects business and no-business travelers e<ually! :owever, this is not necessarily the
case! +peedee may have a poorer record for commuter flights, which are popular among business
travelers, than for other flights! "f so, the conclusion that +peedee is the best choice for the
business traveler would be seriously undermined!
+econdly, the author's claim that #+peedee now offers more flights to more destinations than
ever before$ is too vague to be meaningful! 9e are not informed how many flights or how many
destinations were previously offered or how many are offered now! 0oreover, the article makes
no comparison with other airlines regarding these features! 9ithout these comparisons, the claim
is worthless as a reason for choosing +peedee over another airline!
%hirdly, the article fails to indicate how long ago the industry began re<uiring airlines to report
on-time rates! "f the re<uirement was imposed recently, then the brief reporting period may be
insufficient to show that the airlines' relative on-time performance will continue in the future!
0oreover, the article fails to provide evidence that all airlines, regardless of on-time record,
actually reported, or that the reports are accurate!
"n conclusion, the article's claim that +peedee is the best choice for the business traveler is
unsubstantiated and may be too hasty! %o better evaluate the article's claim, we need more
information about +peedee;s other features that contribute to its overall appeal, about its on-
time record for commuter flights specifically, and about the integrity and length of the reporting
upon which the ranking was based!
-). The following appeared in a memorandum to the planning department of an
in$estment firm.
#.osts ha$e begun dropping for se$eral types of e9uipment currently used to
con$ert solar energy into electricity. 3oreo$er! some e%citing new technologies
for con$erting solar energy are now being researched and de$eloped. 5ence we
can e%pect that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attracti$e
than coal or oil as a source of electrical power. /e should! therefore! encourage
in$estment in 0olario! a new manufacturer of solar&powered products. +fter all!
0olario1s chief e%ecuti$e was once on the financial planning team for @eady&to&
/are! a software engineering firm that has shown remarkable growth since its
recent incorporation.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the planning department of investment firm reaches the conclusion that the firm
Issue -)
should encourage investment in +olarioAa new manufacturer of solar-powered products! %he basis
for this recommendation is the epectation that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient
and attractive than other forms of energy! %his epectation is based on recent declines in the
cost of e<uipment used to convert solar energy into electricity and on new technologies that are
being developed for this purpose! .n additional reason give in support of this recommendation is
that +olario's chief eecutive was a member of the financial planning team for a company that has
shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation! 9hile this argument has some merit,
there are a few assumptions that deserve attention!
"n the first place, the author assumes that the previous business eperience of +olario's chief
eecutive will be an asset in the development of the new company! 9hile this may be the case, the
fact that the two companies deal in vastly different products is cause for some concern! %he
eecutive's epertise in the software-engineering business will not necessarily be applicable to the
solar-powered products business!
"n the second place, the author assumes that the ma/or impediment to the use of solar-powered
products is the cost of solar energy and that, given a choice, consumers would prefer products
powered by solar energy over those powered by energy derived from coal or oil! On the face of it,
this assumption seems acceptable; but it may be that there are other factors besides cost that
make solar energy less desirable than other forms of energy!
"n conclusion, this argument is convincing! %o strengthen the argument additional evidence
indicating consumer preference for solar-powered products over products powered by
conventional forms of energy would be desirable!
-*. The following appeared in a memorandum from a company1s marketing
department.
#0ince our company started manufacturing and marketing a delu%e air filter si%
months ago! sales of our economy filterCand company profitsCha$e decreased
significantly. The delu%e air filter sells for 5' percent more than the economy
filter! but the economy filter lasts for only one month while the delu%e filter can
be used for two months before it must be replaced. To increase repeat sales of our
economy filter and ma%imi"e profits! we should discontinue the delu%e air filter
and concentrate all our ad$ertising efforts on the economy filter.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.!UAV#$% W"
%he company's marketing department recommends discontinuing a delue air filter and
concentrating advertising efforts on an economy filter, which re<uires replacement more often
than the delue model! %his recommendation is based on reports showing that sales of economy
filters, and company profits, have dropped significantly since the company began manufacturing
and marketing the delue filter si months ago! %he marketing department's argument is specious
in three important respects!
First, the marketing department assumes that if the company discontinues the new delue air
-* Catalog
filter, customers will resume buying its economy filter! %his assumption may not be correct!
Customers who prefer the delue model may do so because it re<uires replacement less often!
%hus, instead of buying the company's economy filters again, these customers may /ust as likely
turn to a competitor for a product similar to the delue model! "n this event, the result would be
lower profits!
+econdly, the marketing department fails to recognize alternative strategies that might enhance
profits more than discontinuing the delue filter would! "t is possible that lowering the price of
the economy model, raising the price of the delue model, or both, may actually maimize profits!
. lower-priced economy filter might lure customers from competing products and retain current
customers! .t the same time, buyers of the delue model may place a premium value on its
convenience and may be willing to pay an even higher price for the filter!
%hirdly, the marketing department unfairly assumes that the availability of its delue filter is the
cause of decreasing profits! "t is e<ually possible that other factors, such as increased
competition or supply prices, or decreased demand for these kinds of filters generally, are
responsible for the decrease in profits! "f so, discontinuing the delue filter may not serve to
maimize, or even enhance, the company's profits!
"n conclusion, the department's argument for discontinuing the delue filter is weak because the
department has not considered the possible adverse conse<uences of doing so, or the alternatives
to doing so! 0oreover, the department has failed to establish a clear causal connection between
the availability of the delue filter and decreasing profits! %o strengthen its argument, the
department must consider and rule out pricing ad/ustments as a better strategy to maimize
profits, and must provide better evidence that the delue filter is the cause of the decrease in
profits!
-(. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of a company that
makes I=labrousJ shampoo.
#+ widely publici"ed study claims that 5@2! a chemical compound in our
shampoo! can contribute to hair loss after prolonged use. This study! howe$er!
in$ol$ed only 5'' sub7ects. urthermore! we ha$e recei$ed no complaints from
our customers during the past year! and some of our competitors actually use
more 5@2 per bottle of shampoo than we do. Therefore! we do not need to
consider replacing the 5@2 in our shampoo with a more e%pensi$e alternati$e.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he president of the company that produces =labrous +hampoo argues against removing the
ingredient :I2 from the shampoo even though a scientific study claims that prolonged use of :I2
can contribute to hair loss! %hree reasons are cited as the basis for this decision! First, it is
argued that since the scientific study involved only &@@ sub/ects, it can be disregarded! +econd,
none of =labrous' customers have complained of problems during the past year! .nd, finally,
=labrous' competitors use more :I2 per bottle than =labrous! %he president's decision is
problematic in several respects!
Issue -(
%o begin with, the fact that the scientific study on :I2 involved only &@@ sub/ects is insufficient
grounds to dismiss the results of that study! "f the sub/ects for the study were randomly chosen
and represent a diverse cross section of the population of shampoo users, the results will be
reliable regardless of the number of participants!
(et, the scientific study determined that prolonged use could contribute to hair loss! 9hile
#prolonged use$ was not defined in the memorandum, the fact that none of =labrous' customers
have complained of problems during the past year is not a reliable reason to believe that problems
will not arise in the future!
Finally, the fact that =labrous' competitors use more :I2 in their products than =labrous uses is
irrelevant to the <uestion of whether =labrous should remove :I2 from its product! 0oreover,
rather than providing a reason for not removing the compound, this fact serves better as a reason
for doing so! 2y removing :I2 from its product =labrous could gain an edge over its competitors!
"n conclusion, the reasoning in this argument is not convincing! %o strengthen the argument the
author would have to show that the study was biased or was based on too small a sample to yield
reliable results!
)'. The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager
of a department store.
#Docal clothing stores reported that their profits decreased! on a$erage! for the
three&month period between +ugust 1 and October 31. 0tores that sell products
for the home reported that! on a$erage! their profits increased during this same
period. .learly! consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead
of clothing. To take ad$antage of this trend! we should reduce the si"e of our
clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products
departments.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
2ased upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in profits for stores
that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing stores, the business
manager of a department store concludes that consumers are choosing to purchase home
furnishings rather than clothing! On the basis of this conclusion, the manager recommends a
reduction in the size of the clothing department and an increase in the size of the home-
furnishings department! %his recommendation is problematic in two critical respects!
"n the first place, the author's conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy products for their
homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample! ,ata gathered from a three-month
period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn from it! "t is <uite possible that the three-
month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not representative of entire year's sales! "f so, reducing
the size of the clothing departments and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a
costly mistake!
"n the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be biased! %he fact
that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern! "t is possible that the sales trend
)' Catalog
in a particular location is not representative of sales in other regions! For eample, sales of
clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to be <uite different from sales of clothing
in .laska during the same period!
"n conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands! . more convincing argument must
provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year and at different locations,
that substantiates the trend in <uestion!
)1. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a regional newspaper.
#In response to petitions from the many farmers and rural landowners throughout
our region! the legislature has spent $aluable time and effort enacting se$ere laws
to deter motorists from picking fruit off the trees! trampling through the fields!
and stealing samples of foliage. 4ut how can our local lawmakers occupy
themsel$es with such petty $andalism when crime and $iolence plague the
nation1s citiesK The fate of apples and lea$es is simply too tri$ial to merit their
attention.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author of this editorial asserts that trespassing, vandalism, and theft associated with
stealing fruit from farms is a trivial problem and, as a result, enacting laws to protect farm- and
land-owners from these crimes is a waste of lawmakers' time! "n support of this claim, the author
points out only that the nation's cities are plagued by far more serious problems of violence and
crime! %o the etent that this author has provided any argument at all, it is a poor one!
First of all, the author unfairly assumes that if lawmakers are taking rural crime issues seriously,
then they cannot be taking urban crime issues seriously! %he author is presenting a false dilemma
by imposing an either-or choice between two courses of action that need not be mutually
eclusive! "t is e<ually possible that legislators can address both areas of concern concurrently!
+econdly, the argument relies on the assumption that the legislators in <uestion have the
opportunity to address urban crime problems! :owever, we are not told whether this legislature's
/urisdiction encompasses both rural and urban areas! "f it encompasses only rural areas, then the
author's implicit conclusion that the legislators in this region should instead be addressing urban
crime problems would be completely undermined!
Finally, the author unfairly trivializes the severity of rural crime by simply comparing it with urban
crime! 9hile trespassing, vandalism, and fruit-stealing may seem minor peccadilloes, especially
compared to violent urban crimes, these rural crimes might nevertheless result in serious financial
damage to farm owners, depending on the fre<uency and etent of the violations! %he author fails
to provide evidence for the claim that these rural crimes are trivial! "nstead, the author attempts
to call attention to a more dramatic but potentially irrelevant problem!
"n conclusion, the argument is weak! "t potentially distorts the alternatives available to legislators
in the region, as well as deflecting attention from the problem at hand! %o better evaluate it, we
would need more information about the geographical scope of this legislature's /urisdiction and
about the etent of the fruit-stealing problem in the region!
Issue )1
)2. The following appeared as part of an editorial in a campus newspaper.
#/ith an increasing demand for highly skilled workers! this nation will soon face
a serious labor shortage. ?ew positions in technical and professional occupations
are increasing rapidly! while at the same time the total labor force is growing
slowly. 3oreo$er! the go$ernment is proposing to cut funds for aid to education
in the near future.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author predicts a nationwide labor shortage in the near future! %he basis for
this prediction is an increasing demand for highly skilled workers, especially in technical and
professional fields, coupled with a slow-growing labor force and a government proposal to cut
funds for aid to education! .t first glance, the author's argument appears to be somewhat
convincing7 but further reflection reveals that it is based on some dubious assumptions!
"n the first place the author assumes that the present labor force is immobile and that the
demand #for highly skilled workers will have to be met by workers who are entering the labor
market for the first time! Iecent .merican history, however, shows that this assumption is
entirely unfounded! .t the beginning of the "ndustrial Ievolution most .mericans were farm
workers, but by the end of that revolution most had become factory workers! %hus, even though
the labor pool remained relatively constant during this period, the number of farm workers
decreased and the number of factory workers increased! %his eample clearly demonstrates the
mobility of the labor force!
"n the second place, the author assumes that the government proposal to cut funds for aid to
education will have a significant negative impact on the ability to train workers in technical and
professional fields! %he fact is, however, that the percentage of students who rely on government
aid for their education is relatively small, so the effect of such cuts would be negligible!
"n conclusion, this argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument the author would have to
show that the present work force was relatively static and that the proposed cut in educational
aid would have a deleterious effect on the numbers of high skilled workers available to enter the
work force in the future!
)3. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from a go$ernment agency.
#=i$en the limited funding a$ailable for the building and repair of roads and
bridges! the go$ernment should not spend any money this year on fi%ing the
bridge that crosses the 0ty% @i$er. This bridge is located near a city with a
weakening economy! so it is not as important as other bridgesB moreo$er! the city
population is small and thus unlikely to contribute a significant enough ta%
re$enue to 7ustify the effort of fi%ing the bridge.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author of this government agency memorandum argues that the government should not spend
any money this year fiing the bridge that crosses the +ty Iiver, given the limited resources
available for building and repair of roads and bridges! %he author reasons that this bridge is less
)2 Catalog
important than others because it is located near a city with a weakening economy, and because the
city's small population is unlikely to contribute enough ta revenue to )ustify fiing their bridge!
%his argument is unconvincing for four reasons!
First of all, the author unfairly assumes that the importance of a bridge is determined solely by
the economic condition of nearby cities! %his assumption overlooks other criteria for determining
a bridge's importanceAsuch as the number of commuters using the bridge, the role of the bridge
in local emergencies and disasters, and the impact that bridge closure would have on the
economies of nearby cities! 9ithout accounting for these other potential factors, the author fails
to provide a convincing argument that the +ty Iiver 2ridge is unimportant!
+econdly, the author fails to provide any evidence that other bridges are more important than the
+ty Iiver 2ridge! 9ithout such evidence, we cannot accept the author's conclusion that no
government funds should be directed toward maintaining the +ty Iiver 2ridge!
%hirdly, the fact that the nearby city has a weakening economy does not prove that the city will
not contribute significantly to ta revenues! -erhaps ta revenues are based on property taes,
which are not related directly to economic conditions! "f so, and if property values and taes are
high in this nearby city, then the city would contribute significantly to ta revenues, and the
bridge would be important to maintain those property values and the revenues they generate!
Finally, the author assumes that a city should receive government services commensurate with the
ta dollars it contributes! +ubstantiating this assumption re<uires eamining the proper duty of
government! :owever, the author provides no such eamination! .ccordingly, this assumption is
simply an unproven claim!
"n conclusion, this editorial fails to substantiate its claim that the +ty Iiver 2ridge is not
important enough for the government to spend ta dollars to maintain and repair it! %o strengthen
the argument, the author must account for other factors that also determine a bridge's
importance, and must compare the importance of this bridge relative to other bridges!
)4. The following appeared as part of an article in an entertainment maga"ine.
#+ series of books based on the characters from a popular mo$ie are consistently
bestsellers in local bookstores. 0eeking to capitali"e on the books1 success! <ista
0tudios is planning to produce a mo$ie se9uel based on the books. 2ue to the
success of the books and the original mo$ie! the se9uel will undoubtedly be
profitable.,IXYZ[\AB]?@AB]^_`aIbestseller NO/
profitableJJ
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author reasons that a se<uel to a popular movie will be profitable because
the original movie was profitable and because books based on the characters of the movie are
consistently bestsellers! %his argument is unconvincing for several reasons!
"n the first place, a great deal of empirical evidences shows that se<uels are often not as
Issue )3
profitable as the original movie! For eample, none of the #+uperman$ movie se<uels even
approached the success of the original movie! .ccordingly, the mere fact that the first movie was
successful does not guarantee that movies based upon it will also be profitable!
"n the second place, a movie's financial success is a function of many elements in addition to well-
liked characters! .dmittedly, the fact that the books based on the characters of the original film
are bestsellers bodes well for the movie's commercial prospects! :owever, unless the original cast
and production team are involved in making the se<uel, there is a good chance it will not be
financially successful!
Finally, another important element in creating a successful movie is the script! %he transformation
of a popular book into a popular movie script is a difficult process! Bamples of best-selling books
that were not made into successful movies are commonplace! Obviously, the success of the se<uel
that Fista is planning will depend in great part on the screenwriter's ability to capture the
elements of the story that make the books popular! +ince the difficulties inherent in this process
make it hard to predict whether the result will be a success or a failure, the conclusion that the
se<uel will be profitable is presumptuous!
"n conclusion this is an unconvincing argument! %o strengthen the argument, it would be necessary
to provide assurances that the original cast and production team will be involved in the pro/ect and
that the script will capture and develop the particular elements responsible for the books'
popularity!
)5. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a popular science and
technology maga"ine.
#It is a popular myth that consumers are really benefiting from ad$ances in
agricultural technology. =rantedCconsumers are! on the a$erage! spending a
decreasing proportion of their income on food. 4ut consider that the demand for
food does not rise in proportion with real income. +s real income rises! therefore!
consumers can be e%pected to spend a decreasing proportion of their income on
food. Let agricultural technology is credited with ha$ing made our li$es better.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he conclusion of this letter is that consumers are not truly benefiting from advances in
agricultural technology! %he author concedes that, on the average, consumers are spending a
decreasing proportion of their income on food! 2ut the author contends that this would happen
without advances in agricultural technology! %he author reasons that demand for food does not
rise in proportion with real income, so as real income rises, consumers will spend a decreasing
portion of their income on food! %his argument turns on a number of dubious assumptions!
First of all, while asserting that real incomes are rising, the author provides no evidence to
support this assertion; moreover, it might be false! Bven if salaries and wages go up, this fact may
not indicate that real income has increased proportionally! Ieal income takes into account any
effect inflation might have on the relative value of the dollar! "t is possible that, when salaries
and wages are ad/usted for inflation, what appear to be increases in real income are actually
)4 Catalog
decreases!
"n addition, the author assumes that increases in real income eplain why, on the average,
consumers are now spending a decreasing proportion of their income on food! 2ut no evidence is
provided to show that this eplanation is correct! 0oreover, the author fails to consider and rule
out other factors that might account for proportional decreases in spending on food!
Finally, the entire argument turns on the assumption that benefits to consumers from advances in
agricultural technology are all economic onesAspecifically, ones reflected in food prices! %he
author ignores other likely benefits of agricultural technology that affect food prices only
indirectly or not at all! +uch likely benefits include increased <uality of food as it reaches the
market and greater availability of basic food items! 0oreover, the author cannot ade<uately
assess the benefits of agricultural technology solely on the basis of current food prices because
those prices are a function of more than /ust the technology that brings the food to market!
"n conclusion, this letter has provided little support for the claim that consumers are not really
benefiting from advances in agricultural technology! . stronger argument would account for the
benefits of technology other than the current price of food, and would account for other factors
that affect food prices! %o better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about
whether real incomes are actually rising and whether this alone eplains why consumers now spend
a proportionately smaller amount of income on food!
)-. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
#This city should be able to impro$e e%isting ser$ices and pro$ide new ones
without periodically raising the ta%es of the residents. Instead! the city should
re9uire that the costs of ser$ices be paid for by de$elopers who seek appro$al for
their large new building pro7ects. +fter all! these pro7ects can be highly profitable
to the de$elopers! but they can also raise a city1s e%penses and increase the
demand for its ser$ices.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.!bcd(eT"
"n this editorial the author argues that improvements to eisting city services as well as new
services should be paid for by developers rather than by tapayers! "n support of this opinion the
author points out that developers can make large profits from building pro/ects and that these
pro/ects increase the demand for city services and raise the city's epenses, " disagree with the
author's opinion for two reasons!
First, the fact that developers stand to make profits from their pro/ects is not a good reason to
re<uire them to pay more than their fair share of the costs of services! "n fact, to re<uire them
to do this in order to win approval of their pro/ects is tantamount to robbery! City officials would
find it difficult to /ustify a policy that endorsed this practice! 0oreover, the adoption of such a
practice would discourage the development of new buildings in the city!
+econd, the increase in demand for city services as well as the increase in the city's epenses will
be most likely offset by the ta revenues these pro/ects generate! Conse<uently, unless the
Issue )5
author can demonstrate that the city will incur epenses that are not covered by the increased
revenues from these pro/ects, the author's concern about these issues is unfounded!
"n conclusion, " find the author's reasoning on this issue unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument
the author would have to show that the city would be harmed financially by approving new building
pro/ects!
)). The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
#In order to a$oid the serious health threats associated with many landfills! our
municipality should build a plant for burning trash. +n incinerator could offer
economic as well as ecological ad$antages o$er the typical old&fashioned type of
landfill: incinerators can be adapted to generate moderate amounts of electricity!
and ash residue from some types of trash can be used to condition garden soil.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his newspaper editorial concludes that our city should build a plant for burning trash in order to
avoid the serious health threats associated with many landfills! %he author adds that an
incinerator could offer economic benefits as well, since incinerators can be adapted to generate
small amounts of electricity for other uses, and since ash residue from some kinds of trash can be
used as a soil conditioner! Bven if these claims are true, the author's argument is unconvincing in
three important respects!
%o begin with, the author fails to consider health threats posed by incinerating trash! "t is
possible, for eample, that respiratory problems resulting from the air pollution caused by burning
trash might be so etensive that they would outweigh the health risks associated with landfills! "f
so, the author's conclusion that switching to incineration would be more salutary for public health
would be seriously undermined!
+econdly, the author assumes that discontinuing landfill operations would abate the heath threats
they now pose! :owever, this is not necessarily the case! "t is possible that irreversible
environmental damage to subterranean water supplies, for eample, has already occurred! "n this
event, changing from landfills to incinerators might not avoid or abate serious public health
problems!
%hirdly, the author's implicit claim that incinerators are economically advantageous to landfills is
poorly supported! Only two small economic benefits of incineration are mentioned, while the costs
associated with either burning trash or switching refuse disposal systems are ignored! "n all
likelihood, such costs would be significant, and may very well outweigh the economic benefits!
"n conclusion, the author's argument provides inade<uate /ustification for switching from one
disposal system to the other! .s it stands, the argument takes into account only a limited number
of benefits from the change, while addressing none of its costs! %o better evaluate the argument,
we must first eamine all the health risks posed by each refuse disposal system and conduct a
thorough cost-benefit analysis of each system, taking account of the cost of the new system, the
cost of the changeover itself, and the epected costs to the community of health problems
resulting from each system!
)- Catalog
)*. The following appeared in the editorial section of a monthly business
newsmaga"ine.
#3ost companies would agree that as the risk of physical in7ury occurring on the
7ob increases! the wages paid to employees should also increase. 5ence it makes
financial sense for employers to make the workplace safer: they could thus reduce
their payroll e%penses and sa$e money.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this editorial, the author argues that it makes financial sense for employers to make the
workplace safer, in support of this claim the author reasons that since wages paid to employees
should increase as the risk of physical in/ury increases, the converse should be true as well!
:ence, by decreasing the risk of in/ury, employers could decrease the wages paid to workers and
thereby save money! %his argument is unconvincing for two reasons!
%o begin with the author assumes that because companies would agree that as risk of in/ury
increases wages should also increase, they would also agree that as risk decreases wages should
also decrease accordingly! %his is tantamount to the assumption that risk of in/ury is the primary
factor that determines workers' wages! "t is obvious that few employers, and even fewer
employees, would agree that this is the case! %o adopt this position one would have to disregard
education, eperience, and skill as e<ually important factors in determining the wages paid to
workers!
+econdly, the author's reasoning suggests that the only benefit of a safer workplace is the savings
employers could realize from lower wages! %his is obviously not true! %he costs associated with
accidents on the /ob could far outweigh any savings that could be realized by paying workers lower
wages!
"n conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing! Iisk of in/ury is an important factor to
consider in determining the wages paid to workers but is not the only such factor! Furthermore,
there are far better reasons for employers to make the workplace safer than the one presented
by the author!
)(. The following appeared as part of a company memorandum.
#+dopting an official code of ethics regarding business practices may in the long
run do our company more harm than good in the public eye. /hen one of our
competitors recei$ed unfa$orable publicity for $iolating its own code of ethics! it
got more attention from the media than it would ha$e if it had had no such code.
@ather than adopt an official code of ethics! therefore! we should instead conduct
a publicity campaign that stresses the importance of protecting the en$ironment
and assisting charitable organi"ations.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his company memorandum suggests that, in lieu of adopting an official code of ethics, the
company should conduct a publicity campaign that stresses the importance of promoting certain
societal interests! %he reason for the suggestion is that an official code of ethics might harm the
Issue ))
company in the public eye because a competing company received unfavorable publicity for
violating its own ethics code! %his argument is unconvincing, since it depends on several
unwarranted assumptions as well as arguing against its own conclusion!
First of all, the author unfairly assumes that the two companies are sufficiently similar to ensure
the same conse<uences of adopting an ethics code for this company as for its competitor! %he
competitor may have adopted an entirely different code from the one this company might adoptA
perhaps with unrealistic standards not embraced by any other companies! -erhaps the
competitor's violation was etremely egregious, amounting to an aberration among businesses of
its type; or perhaps one notorious eecutive is solely responsible for the competitor's violation!
.ny of these scenarios, if true, would show that the two companies are dissimilar in ways relevant
to the likelihood that this company will eperience similar violations and similar publicity if it
adopts any ethics code!
+econdly, the author unfairly assumes that the competitor was damaged by its code violation and
the resulting publicity more than it would have been had it not violated its code! )ust as likely,
however, the violation was necessary to ensure a certain level of profitability or to protect other
important interests! 9ithout knowing the etent and nature of the damage resulting from the bad
publicity or the reason for the violation, we cannot accept the author's conclusion!
%hirdly, the author's proposal is inconsistent with the author's conclusion about the conse<uences
of adopting an ethics code! %he author suggests that, instead of adopting an ethics code, this
company should stress #the importance of protecting the environment and assisting charitable
organizations!$ %his proposal is tantamount to adopting an ethics code! "n this sense, the author
suggests going against his own advice that the company should not adopt such a code!
"n conclusion, differences between this company and its competitor may undermine the author's
conclusion that this company should not adopt an ethics code! %o better evaluate the argument, we
need more information about the nature of the competitor's ethics code and about the nature and
etent of the violation! %o strengthen the argument, the author must accord his advice with his
conclusion that the company should not adopt an ethics code!
*'. The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper.
#+lthough forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls measure
current $oter preference! many $oters keep changing their minds about whom
they prefer until the last few days before the balloting. 0ome do not e$en make a
final decision until they enter the $oting booth. orecasts based on opinion polls
are therefore little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess
would be.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this editorial the author asserts that opinion polls are little better than random guesses to
predicting outcomes of presidential elections! %he author's basis for this assertion is that opinion
polls measure only the preferences of voters at the time of the poll and that many voters change
their preferences several time before votingAsome remaining undecided until the moment they
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cast their vote! %he author's reasoning is unconvincing in two critical respects!
First of all the predictions based on random guessing are such that the greater the number of
candidates, the less likely the prediction will be correct! %he reason for this is obvious7 random
guessing re<uires that no outside information be allowed to influence the guess! -redictions based
on opinion polls, on the other hand, will differ considerably from those based on random guesses
simply because outside information will influence the result! For eample, in a four-person race,
random guessing would yield the correct prediction 2& percent of the time, whereas the
percentage of correct predictions based on opinion polls would be much higher! %he reason for this
disparity is simple! Opinion polls enable us to narrow the choices! %hat is, opinion polls serve to
reduce the number of viable candidates in the voter's mind and thereby increase the likelihood
that the prediction based on them will be correct!
"n addition, while it is true that many voters change their minds several times before voting, and
that some remain undecided until entering the voting booth, this is not true of everyone!
0oreover, people who do change their minds fre<uently or wait until the last moment to decide
have typically narrowed their choice to a few candidates!
"n conclusion, the author is mistaken in believing that random guessing would be as reliable as
opinion polls in predicting the outcomes of presidential elections!
*1. The following appeared in the editorial section of a newspaper in the country of
/est .ambria.
#The practice of officially changing speed limits on the highwaysCwhether by
increasing or decreasing themCis a dangerous one. .onsider what happened o$er
the past decade whene$er neighboring 6ast .ambria changed its speed limits: an
a$erage of 3 percent more automobile accidents occurred during the week
following the change than had occurred during the week preceding itCe$en when
the speed limit was lowered. This statistic shows that the change in speed limit
ad$ersely affected the alertness of dri$ers.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his editorial asserts that 9est Cambria should not change its highway speed limits because such
changes adversely affect driver alertness and are therefore dangerous! %o support this claim, the
editorial cites statistics indicating that whenever Bast Cambria changed its speed limits, an
average of D percent more automobile accidents occurred during the week after the change than
during the week preceding it, even when the speed limit was lowered! .s it stands, this argument
suffers from three critical flaws!
First, it is unlikely that the brief one-week periods under comparison are representative of longer
time periods! . difference of only D percent during one particular week can easily be accounted
for by other factors, such as heavy holiday traffic or bad weather, or by problems with reporting
or sampling! :ad the editorial indicated that several speed-limit changes in Bast Cambria
contributed to the statistic, the argument would be more convincing; but for all we know, the
statistic is based on only one such change! "n any event, a one-week period is too brief to be
Issue )(
representative because it is likely that accidents will occur more fre<uently immediately following
the change, while people ad/ust to the new limit, than over the longer term when drivers have
become accustomed to the change!
+econdly, the editorial fails to acknowledge possible differences in the types of accidents
occurring before and after the change! "t is possible that the accidents during the week before
the change all involved fatalities, while those during the week after the change were minor
fender-benders! "f so, even though D percent more accidents occurred after the change, the
author's argument that changing the speed limit increases danger for drivers would be seriously
weakened!
%hirdly, the editorial fails to take into account possible differences between Bast and 9est
Cambria that are relevant to how drivers react to speed-limit changes! Factors such as the
condition of roads, average age and typical driving habits of residents, and weather patterns,
would probably affect how well or how <uickly drivers adapt to speed-limit changes! %hus, changing
speed limits in Bast Cambria might be more dangerous than changing them in 9est Cambria!
"n conclusion, the statistical evidence cited to support the argument is insignificant and probably
unrepresentative! %o better evaluate the argument, we need to know how many speed-limit
changes contributed to the statistic and when the speed-limit changes were made! Finally, to
strengthen the argument the author should show that Bast and 9est Cambria would be similarly
affected by speed-limit changes!
*2. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the $ice president of
?ostrum! a large pharmaceutical corporation.
#The proposal to increase the health and retirement benefits that our employees
recei$e should not be implemented at this time. +n increase in these benefits is
not only financially un7ustified! since our last year1s profits were lower than those
of the preceding year! but also unnecessary! since our chief competitor! 8anacea!
offers its employees lower health and retirement benefits than we currently offer.
/e can assume that our employees are reasonably satisfied with the health and
retirement benefits that they now ha$e since a recent sur$ey indicated that two&
thirds of the respondents $iewed them fa$orably.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he vice president of (ostrum argues that implementing an increase in health and retirement
benefits for employees is not a good idea at this time! :is main line of reasoning is that an
increase in benefits is both financially un/ustified and unnecessaryAfinancially un/ustified
because last year's profits were lower than the preceding year's, and unnecessary because
(ostrum's chief competitor offers lower benefits to its employees and because a recent (ostrum
employee survey indicates that two-thirds of the respondents viewed the current benefits
package favorably! 9hile the argument has some merit, it is not completely convincing!
.dmittedly the vice president's reasoning linking employee benefits with company profits seems
reasonable on its face! Companies that are not profitable are ill-advised to take on additional
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costs such as increased employee benefits! :owever, the fact that (ostrum's profits last year
were lower than the preceding year does not imply that (ostrum is eperiencing financial
difficulties that preclude it from increasing employee benefits at this time! -erhaps the previous
year's profits were etremely large; whereas last year's profits, albeit lower, were sufficient to
fund an increase in the benefits package without threatening the company's bottom line!
.lso, the fact that (ostrum's chief competitor provides lower benefits to its employees is not a
good reason for (ostrum to deny an increase to its employees! Bmployee loyalty is an important
asset to any company, and providing good pay and good benefits are among the best ways to
ac<uire it! (ostrum would be well advised to assure that its employees have little reason to seek
employment elsewhere, and especially from its chief competitor!
Finally, one can infer from the survey's results that a full one-third of the respondents may have
viewed the current benefits package unfavorably! "f so, such widespread satisfaction would
weaken the vice president's argument! *acking more specific information about how these other
employees responded, it is impossible to assess the reliability of the survey's results or to make an
informed recommendation!
"n conclusion the vice president's argument against implementing a benefits increase is
unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument, he must provide evidence that the increase in benefits
would have a negative impact on the company's overall profitability! .dditionally, he must provide
more information about the manner in which the survey was conducted before we can determine
the degree of employee satisfaction of the current benefits
*3. The following appeared as part of an article on trends in tele$ision.
#+ recent study of $iewers1 attitudes toward prime&time tele$ision programs
shows that many of the programs that were 7udged by their $iewers to be of high
9uality appeared on InoncommercialJ tele$ision networks! and that! on
commercial tele$ision! the most popular shows are typically sponsored by the
best&selling products. Thus! it follows that businesses who use commercial
tele$ision to promote their products will achie$e the greatest ad$ertising success
by sponsoring only highly&rated programsCand! ideally! programs resembling
the highly&rated noncommercial programs on public channels as much as
possible.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his article concludes that businesses using commercial television to promote their products will
achieve the greatest advertising success by sponsoring only highly-rated programsApreferably,
programs resembling the highly-rated non-commercial programs on public channels! +upporting this
claim is a recent study indicating that many programs /udged by viewers to be high in <uality
appeared on noncommercial networks, and that the most popular shows on commercial television
are typically sponsored by the best-selling products! %his argument is weak because it depends on
three <uestionable assumptions!
%he first of these assumptions is that noncommercial public television programs /udged by viewers
Issue *1
to be high in <uality are also popular! :owever, the study cited by the author concerns viewer
attitudes about the #high <uality$ of programs on noncommercial public television, not about their
popularity! . program might rate highly as to <uality but not in terms of popularity! %hus, the
author unfairly assumes that highly-rated public television programs are necessarily widely viewed,
or popular!
%he argument also assumes that programs resembling popular non-commercial programs will also be
popular on commercial television! :owever, the audiences for the two types of programs differ
significantly in their tastes! For eample, a symphony series may be popular on public television
but not as a prime-time network show, because public-television viewers tend to be more
interested than commercial-television viewers in the arts and higher culture! %hus, a popular
program in one venue may be decidedly unpopular in the other!
. third assumption is that products become best-sellers as a result of their being advertised on
popular programs! 9hile this may be true in some cases, it is e<ually possible that only companies
with products that are already best-sellers can afford the higher ad rates that popular shows
demand! .ccordingly, a lesser-known product from a company on a smaller budget might be better
off running repeatedAbut less epensiveAads on less popular shows than by running /ust one or
two costly ads on a top-rated show!
"n conclusion, the results of the cited study do not support the author's conclusion! %o better
evaluate the argument, we need to know the intended meaning of the phrase #highly-rated!$ %o
strengthen the argument, the author must limit his conclusion by acknowledging that popularity in
public television might not translate to popularity in commercial television, and that the best
advertising strategy for companies with best-selling products may not be feasible for other
businesses!
*4. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a daily
newspaper.
#.ompany + has a large share of the international market in $ideo&game
hardware and software. .ompany 4! the pioneer in these products! was once a
>12 billion&a&year giant but collapsed when children became bored with its line of
products. Thus .ompany + can also be e%pected to fail! especially gi$en the fact
that its games are now in so many +merican homes that the demand for them is
nearly e%hausted.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
"n this argument the author reasons that the failure of Company 2 portends a similar fate for
Company .! %he grounds for this prediction are similarities that eist between the two companies!
%he line of reasoning is that since both companies produce video-game hardware and software and
both en/oy a large share of the market for these products, the failure of one is a reliable
predictor of the failure of the other! %his argument is unconvincing!
%he ma/or problem with the argument is that the stated similarities between Company . and 2 are
insufficient to support the conclusion that Company . will suffer a fate similar to Company 2's! "n
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fact, the similarities stated are irrelevant to that conclusion! Company 2 did not fail because of
its market share or because of the general type of product it produced; it failed because children
became bored with its particular line of products! Conse<uently, the mere fact that Company .
holds a large share of the video-game hardware and software market does not support the claim
that Company . will also fail!
.n additional problem with the argument is that there might be relevant differences between
Company . and Company 2, which further undermine the conclusion! For eample, Company .'s line
of products may differ from Company 2's in that children do not become bored with them!
.nother possible difference is that Company 2's share of the market may have been entirely
domestic whereas Company . has a large share of the international market!
"n conclusion this is a weak argument! %o strengthen the conclusion the author would have to show
that there are sufficient relevant similarities between Company . and Company 2 as well as no
relevant differences between them!
*5. The following appeared as part of an article in a photography maga"ine.
#/hen choosing whether to work in color or in black&and&white! the
photographer who wishes to be successful should keep in mind that because color
photographs are more true&to&life! maga"ines use more color photographs than
black&and&white ones! and many newspapers are also starting to use color
photographs. The realism of color also accounts for the fact that most portrait
studios use more color film than black&and&white film. urthermore! there are
more types of color film than black&and&white film a$ailable today. .learly!
photographers who work in color ha$e an ad$antage o$er those who work in
black&and&white.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he author concludes that photographers who work in color hold a competitive advantage over
those who work in black-and-white! %o support this conclusion, the author claims that the greater
realism of color accounts for its predominant use in magazines and portraits! %he author also
points out that newspapers now use color photographs, and that there are more types of color film
than black-and-white film available today! %his argument is problematic in several important
respects!
First, the argument unfairly assumes that working in color is necessary in order to gain an
advantage! %he author identifies only two areasAmagazine and portrait photographyAwhere color
predominates! "t is possible that the overall demand for black-and-white photography remains
high! 0oreover, the author provides no evidence that the realism of color photography is the
reason for its predominance! %he predominant use of color may be due to other factorsAsuch as
consumer preferences or relative costs of filmAwhich might change at any time!
+econd, the argument unfairly assumes that a photographer must make an either1or choice
between the two types of photography! %his assumption presents a false dilemma, since the two
media are not necessarily mutually eclusive alternatives! Common sense tells us that a
Issue *3
photographer can succeed by working in both media!
%hird, the fact that more kinds of color film are available than black-and-white film accomplishes
little to support the argument! %he difference in number might be insignificant, and the
distinctions among the types of color film might be negligible! "n fact, by implying that more
choices in film type affords a photographer a competitive advantage, the author actually
undermines his larger argument that working solely in color is the best way to succeed in the field
of photography!
Finally, the argument ignores other factorsAsuch as initiative, creativity, technical skills, and
business /udgmentAthat may be more important than choice of medium in determining success in
photography! . poorly skilled photographer may actually be disadvantaged by working in color
insofar as color work re<uires greater skill, and insofar as color photographers face keener
competition for assignments!
"n conclusion, this argument oversimplifies the conditions for gaining an advantage in the field of
photography! %o better evaluate the argument, we need more precise information as to how large
a portion of all photography work today is accounted for by color work! %o strengthen the
argument, the author must convince us that a photographer must choose one medium or the other
rather than working in both!
*-. The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a local newspaper.
#It makes no sense that in most places fifteen year olds are not eligible for their
dri$er1s license while people who are far older can retain all of their dri$ing
pri$ileges by simply renewing their license. If older dri$ers can get these
renewals! often without ha$ing to pass another dri$ing test! then fifteen year olds
should be eligible to get a license. ifteen year olds typically ha$e much better
eyesight! especially at nightB much better hand&eye coordinationB and much
9uicker refle%es. They are also less likely to feel confused by une%pected
de$elopments or disoriented in unfamiliar surroundings! and they reco$er from
in7uries more 9uickly.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%he conclusion of this argument is that 8&-year-olds should be eligible to obtain a driver's license!
%he author employs two lines of reasoning to reach this conclusion! "n the first the author reasons
that since older drivers can retain their driving privileges by simply renewing their licenses, 8&-
year-olds should be eligible to obtain a license! "n the second, the author reasons that 8&-year-
olds are physically more capable than older drivers of performing the various skills associated
with driving a vehicle and thus should be eligible to get a license! %his argument is unconvincing for
a couple of reasons!
"n the first place, the author assumes that there are no relevant differences between 8&-year-
olds and older drivers that would /ustify treating them differently! %his assumption is dearly
mistaken! %he ma/or difference between the two groups, and the ma/or reason 8&-year-olds are
denied driving privileges, is their relative lack of emotional maturity and social responsibility! %his
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difference is sufficient to /ustify the policy of allowing older drivers to renew their driving
privileges while at the same time denying these privileges to 8&-year-olds!
"n the second place, even if it is granted that fifteen year olds possess better night vision,
reflees, hand-eye coordination, and are less disoriented in unfamiliar surroundings than older
drivers, these abilities do not <ualify them to obtain a driver's license! %he author assumes that
physical capabilities are the only attributes necessary to operate a motor vehicle! 2ut this
assumption is clearly mistaken! "n addition to these abilities, drivers must be able to eercise
good /udgment in all types of driving situations and conditions and must be cognizant of the
conse<uences of their decisions and actions when driving! "t is because 8&-year-olds typically lack
these latter abilities that they are denied driving privileges!
"n sum, the author's argument fails to take into consideration important differences between
older drivers and 8&-year-olds that /ustify denying driving privileges to the younger group while at
the same time allowing older drivers to retain their privileges by simply renewing their license!
*). The following appeared in an ad for a book titled 5ow to /rite a 0creenplay for a
3o$ie.
#/riters who want to succeed should try to write film screenplays rather than
books! since the a$erage film tends to make greater profits than does e$en a best&
selling book. It is true that some books are also made into films. 5owe$er! our
nation1s film producers are more likely to produce mo$ies based on original
screenplays than to produce films based on books! because in recent years the
films that ha$e sold the most tickets ha$e usually been based on original
screenplays.,
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
%his advertisement for #:ow to 9rite a +creenplay!!!$ concludes that a writer is more likely to be
successful by writing original screenplays than by writing books! %he ad's reasoning is based on two
claims7 586 the average film tends to be more profitable than even best-selling books, and 526 film
producers are more likely to make movies based on original screenplays than on books because in
recent years the films that have sold the most tickets have usually been based on original
screenplays! " find the ad unconvincing, on three grounds!
First, the mere fact that ticket sales in recent years for screenplay-based movies have eceeded
those for book-based movies is insufficient evidence to conclude that writing screenplays now
provides greater financial opportunity for writers! %icket-sale statistics from only a few recent
years are not necessarily a good indicator of future trends! "t is possible that fees paid by movie
studios for screenplays might decrease in the future relative to those for book rights! 0oreover,
the argument is based on number of ticket sales, not on movie-studio profits or writer's fees! "t is
possible that studio profits and writer fees have actually been greater recently for book-based
movies than for those based on original screenplays!
.nother problem with the ad is that it assumes a writer must make an either-or choice from the
outset between writing books and writing screenplays! %he argument fails to rule out the
Issue *5
possibility that a writer engage in both types of writing as well as other types! "n fact a writer
may be more successful by doing so! 9riting in various genres might improve one's effectiveness in
each of them! .lso, writing a book may be an effective first step to producing a screenplay! "n any
event, the ad provides no /ustification for the mutually eclusive choice it imposes on the writer!
. third problem with the ad is its ambiguous use of the word #successful!$ %he argument simply
e<uates success with movie ticket sales! :owever, many writers may define writing success in
other terms, such as intellectual or artistic fulfillment! %he ad's advice that writing screenplays is
the best way to achieve writing success ignores other definitions of success!
"n conclusion, this <uick pitch for a book is based on simplistic assumptions about ticket sales and
writer fees, and on an overly narrow definition of success in writing! %o better evaluate this
argument, at the very least we would need to know the number of years the cited statistic was
based on, and the etent to which ticket sales reflect movie studio profits and writer fees!
**. The following appeared in a memorandum from the 6lectro/ares company1s
marketing department.
#0ince our company started manufacturing and marketing a delu%e light bulb si%
months ago! sales of our economy light bulbCand company profitsCha$e
decreased significantly. +lthough the delu%e light bulb sells for 5' percent more
than the economy bulb! it lasts twice as long. Therefore! to increase repeat sales
and ma%imi"e profits! we should discontinue the delu%e light bulb.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this memorandum Blectro9are's marketing department reasons that manufacturing and
marketing of the company's delue light bulb should be discontinued! %he primary factors that
influence their decision are a significant decrease in sales of the company's economy light bulb as
well as declining company profits in the si month period following the introduction of the delue
bulb! -resumably, their line of reasoning is that the introduction of the delue bulb is responsible
for both of these undesirable outcomes! 4nfortunately, the marketing department's rationale is
problematic for several reasons!
"n the first place, the marketing department has engaged in #after this, therefore because of
this$ reasoning! %he only reason offered for the belief that the introduction of the delue bulb is
responsible for both the decline in sales of the economy bulb and the decline in company profits is
the fact that the former preceded the latter! (o additional evidence linking these events is
provided, thus leaving open the possibility that the event are not causally related but merely
correlated! %his in turn leaves open the possibility that factors other than the one cited are
responsible for the decline in sales of the economy bulb and the decline in company profits!
"n the second place, it is not clear in the memorandum eactly how the decline in sales of the
economy bulb is related to the decline in company profits! One possibility is that the decline in
profits is a direct conse<uence of the decline in sales of the economy bulb! .nother is that some
other factor such as ineffective marketing of the delue bulb or the start-up costs associated
with the introduction of the delue bulb is responsible for the decline in company profits! 4ntil
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the relationship between the events in <uestion is fully understood it would be folly to act upon
the marketing department's recommendation!
"n conclusion, the marketing department has failed to articulate reasons that are sufficient to
/ustify its recommendation! +pecifically, the department has failed to establish a causal link
between the introduction of the delue bulb and the declines in sales of the economy bulb and
company profits! 9hile the introduction of the delue bulb may have been a contributing factor in
these declines, to strengthen the marketing department's position various other factors must be
eamined and ruled out as possible causes of the company's misfortune!
*(. The following is taken from an editorial in a local newspaper.
#O$er the past decade! the price per pound of citrus fruit has increased
substantially. 6le$en years ago! 3egamart charged 5 cents apiece for lemons! but
today it commonly charges o$er 3' cents apiece. In only one of these last ele$en
years was the weather unfa$orable for growing citrus crops. 6$idently! then!
citrus growers ha$e been responsible for the e%cessi$e increase in the price of
citrus fruit! and strict pricing regulations are needed to pre$ent them from
continuing to inflate prices.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this editorial the author argues for the imposition of strict pricing regulations in order to
prevent citrus growers from continued inflation of prices of citrus fruit! %he need for such
regulation is supported by the author's contention that citrus growers have been unnecessarily
raising prices of citrus fruit in the past! %he evidence for this allegation is the fact that the price
of lemons at 0egamart has increased from 8& cents per pound to over a dollar a pound during the
preceding 88-year period! %he author maintains that this increase is un/ustifiable because weather
conditions have been favorable to citrus production in all but one of those years! %his argument is
flawed for several reasons!
First and foremost, the author assumes that the only factor that influences the price of citrus
fruit is the weather! Other factors such as monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor
costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions are completely ignored as possible sources
for the increase! %he charge that citrus growers have unnecessarily raised prices can be sustained
only if these and other possible factors can be completely ruled out as contributing to the price
increases! +ince the author fails to address these factors, the recommendation calling for strict
pricing regulations can be dismissed out of hand as frivolous!
+econd, the author assumes that the only way to combat increased prices is through government
intervention! "n a free enterprise system many other means of affecting the pricing of goods are
available! For eample, boycotting a product and thereby influencing supply and demand conditions
of the commodity is an effective means of influencing the price of the product! "n a free market
economy the call for price regulation by the government should occur only when all other means to
rectify the problem have been ehausted!
"n conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument it would be
Issue *)
necessary to show that the only factor influencing the price increases is the growers' desire for
increased profits!
('. The following appeared as part of an article in a local newspaper.
#O$er the past three years the tartfish industry has changed markedly: fishing
technology has impro$ed significantly! and the demand for tartfish has grown in
both domestic and foreign markets. +s this trend continues! the tartfish industry
on 0hrimp Island can e%pect to e%perience the same o$er&fishing problems that
are already occurring with mainland fishing industries: without restrictions on
fishing! fishers see no reason to limit their indi$idual catches. +s the catches get
bigger! the tartfish population will be dangerously depleted while the surplus of
tartfish will de$alue the catch for fishers. =o$ernment regulation is the only
answer: tartfish&fishing should be allowed only during the three&month summer
season! when tartfish reproduce and thus are most numerous! rather than
throughout the year.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this argument the author concludes that government regulation of the tartfish industry is the
only way to prevent the problems associated with over-fishing that plague other fishing industries!
%he author's line of reasoning is that without restrictions fishers see no reason to limit their
catches and that this will deplete the tartfish population as well as devalue the catch! %his line of
reasoning is problematic for several reasons!
First, while government regulation may be one way to address the problem, it is by no means the
only way! 0any industries recognize that it is in their self-interest to carefully manage the natural
resources on which the industry depends! For eample, the oil industry routinely limits production
of oil-related products in order to prevent surpluses and lower prices! (o evidence has been
presented to establish that the tartfish industry is incapable of addressing and solving the
problem of over-fishing without government intervention!
+econd, the author's line of reasoning defies common sense! %he author's underling assumption is
that fishers are motivated only by greed and that they will increase their catches to maimize
their profits without regard to the effects over-fishing will have on their livelihood and lifestyle
in the future! %his assumption is not supported in the argument! 0oreover, as a generalization, on
its face it appears to be false! 9hile some fishers may be driven only by immediate economic
gratification and conse<uently see no reason to limit their catches, no doubt others will see the
threat over-fishing presents to their way of life and will voluntarily limit their catches!
Finally, the author offers no evidence that limiting the season for catching tartfish to three
months in the summer will solve the over-fishing problem! 0oreover, this proposal is highly
<uestionable since this period coincides with the reproductive period of the tartfish!
"n conclusion, the author has not made a convincing case for government regulation of the tartfish
industry! %o strengthen the conclusion the author must provide evidence for the assertion that
government regulation is the only way to solve the problem! Furthermore, the author must provide
** Catalog
evidence to support the assumption that immediate economic gratification is the only motive that
fishers have in pursuing their livelihood!
(1. The following appeared in a proposal from the de$elopment office at 8latonic
;ni$ersity.
#4ecause 8latonic ;ni$ersity has had difficulty in meeting its e%penses o$er the
past three years! we need to find new ways to increase re$enues. /e should
consider following the e%ample of =reene ;ni$ersity! which recently renamed
itself after a donor who ga$e it >1'' million. If 8latonic ;ni$ersity were to
ad$ertise to its alumni and other wealthy people that it will rename either
indi$idual buildings or the entire uni$ersity itself after the donors who gi$e the
most money! the amount of donations would undoubtedly increase.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this argument an analogy is drawn between -latonic 4niversity and =reene 4niversity! %he
author argues that to solve its economic problems, -latonic 4niversity should follow the eample
of =reene 4niversity, which was recently named after a wealthy donor, and offer to rename
individual buildings or the university itself in echange for donations! %he author believes that
since this tactic worked for =reene it would undoubtedly work for -latonic, and thus provide the
much-needed revenue! %his argument is <uestionable for several reasons!
"n the first place, the argument rests upon the assumption that a revenue-producing strategy
that works for one university will work for another as well! :owever, =reene and -latonic may not
be sufficiently similar to warrant this assumption! For eample, a small, rural university is less
likely to have alumni who could afford to make significant donations than a large, urban university!
*acking specific information about the makeup of the universities, and their alumni, it is impossible
to assess the likelihood that the strategy employed by =reene will work for 5fghi6
(2. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local
newspaper.
#5ippocrene 8lumbing 0upply recently opened a wholesale outlet in the location
once occupied by the .um9uat .afe. 5ippocrene has apparently been 9uite
successful there because it is planning to open a large outlet in a nearby city. 4ut
the .um9uat .afe! one year after mo$ing to its new location! has seen its $olume
of business drop somewhat from the pre$ious year1s. .learly! the former site is a
better business location! and the .um9uat .afe has made a mistake in mo$ing to
its new address.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
5fghi62usiness is obviously unsuitable to the location! On the other hand, a bank in the same
location might be etremely successful simply because of its suitability to the location!
"n the third place, the author's claim that :ippocrene has been successful at Cum<uat's previous
location is unwarranted! %he fact that :ippocrene intends to open a new outlet is insufficient to
Issue *(
establish this claim! "t is possible that the plan to open a new outlet was prompted by a lack of
business at the Cum<uat location!
Finally, the author unfairly assumes that one year's time at the new location is ade<uate to
conclude whether Cum<uat made a mistake in moving to that location! "ts is entirely possible that
given more time, perhaps another year or so, Cum<uat will become profitable at the location!
Common sense informs me that this is a distinct possibility, since it often takes more than one
year for a restaurant to establish a customer base at a given location!
"n conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the conclusion the author
would have to evaluate other possible causes of the performance of the businesses and eliminate
all ecept location as the cause in each case! .dditionally, it would be necessary to show that
location rather than suitability to a location was the cause of the success of :ippocrene and the
failure of Cum<uat!
(3. The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of M3T<! a
tele$ision station.
#+pplications for ad$ertising spots on M3T<! our local cable tele$ision channel!
decreased last year. 3eanwhile a neighboring town1s local channel! MOO8!
changed its focus to farming issues and reported an increase in ad$ertising
applications for the year. To increase applications for ad$ertising spots! M3T<
should focus its programming on farming issues as well.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this editorial M0%F, a local cable television channel is urged to change its programming focus to
farming issues in order to increase advertising revenues! %he author's line of reasoning is that
MOO-'s change in focus was the cause of its increase in advertising and that since this tactic
worked for MOO- it will work for M0%F as well! %his line of reasoning is flawed in three important
respects!
%o begin with, the belief that the change in focus to farming issues was the cause of MOO-'s
increase in advertising applications is unfounded! %he only evidence offered to support this belief
is that the change in focus preceded the increase in applications! 4nfortunately, this evidence is
insufficient to establish the causal claim in <uestion! Conse<uently, it is possible that MOO-'s
change in focus may not have been related to its increase in revenue in the manner re<uired by the
author's argument!
"n addition, the author assumes that the towns that M0%F and MOO- serve are sufficiently
similar to warrant a conclusion based on an analogy between them! Bven if we accept the view that
MOO-'s change in programming focus to farming issues was responsible for its increase in
advertising applications, differences between the towns could drastically alter the outcome for
M0%F! For eample, if M0%F serves a metropolitan area with little interest in agriculture,
changing its programming focus to farming issues would most likely be disastrous! *acking
information about the towns MOO- and M0%F serve it is difficult to assess the author's
recommendation!
(' Catalog
Finally, the author assumes that M0%F's decrease in applications for advertising was due to its
programming! :owever, since the author provides no evidence to support this assumption, it may
be that the decrease was caused by other factors, such as recession in the local economy or
transmission problems at the station! 9ithout ruling out these and other possible causes the
author cannot confidently conclude that M0%F's programming was responsible for the decrease in
advertising applications at hat station!
"n conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument the author would
have to provide additional evidence for the claim that MOO-'s change in focus was responsible for
its increase in advertising applications and that M0%F's decrease in applications was due to its
programming! Furthermore, it would be necessary to show that the towns that MOO- and M0%F
serve are sufficiently similar to /ustify the analogy between them!
(4. The following appeared as part of an article in a computer maga"ine.
#+ year ago +pe% 3anufacturing bought its managers computers for their homes
and paid for telephone connections so that they could access +pe% computers and
data files from home after normal business hours. 0ince last year! producti$ity at
+pe% has increased by 15 percent. Other companies can learn from the success at
+pe%: gi$en home computers and access to company resources! employees will
work additional hours at home and thereby increase company profits.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this article the author attributes .pe 0anufacturing's 8& percent increase in productivity
over the past year to its decision to e<uip its manager with computers and paid telephone
connections for their homes so that they would access company computers and files from home
after normal business hours! On the basis of .pe's eperience the author recommends that
other companies follow .pe's eample and provide computers and access to company resources to
their employees! %he author believes that such a policy would increase productivity and profits for
other companies, /ust as it did for .pe! %he author's line of reasoning is <uestionable for several
reasons!
First, the author assumes that .pe's increase in productivity is due to its e<uipping its managers
with home computers and access to company resources! :owever, the only evidence offered in
support of this claim is the fact that .pe's increase in productivity occurred after the home
computers and after-hours access was provided! 4nfortunately, this evidence is insufficient to
establish the causal claim in <uestion! 9hile temporal precedence is one of the conditions re<uired
to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition!
Conse<uently, it is possible that .pe's increase in productivity is not related to its decision to
e<uip its managers with computers and after-hours access in the fashion re<uired by the author's
argument!
+econd, the author assumes that .pe and other companies are sufficiently similar to warrant a
conclusion based on an analogy between them! Bven if we accept the view that .pe's increase in
productivity was brought about by its policy of enabling its managers to work from home,
differences between .pe and other companies could nullify this result! *acking detailed
Issue (1
information about .pe and the other companies in <uestion it is difficult to assess the author's
conclusion!
"n conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the argument the author would
have to provide additional evidence for the claim that .pe's decision to provide its managers with
home computers and access to company resources was responsible for its increase in productivity!
Furthermore, it would be necessary to show that .pe and other companies are sufficiently
similar to /ustify the analogy between them!
(5. The following was e%cerpted from an article in a farming trade publication.
#armers who switched from synthetic to organic farming last year ha$e seen
their crop yields decline. 3any of these farmers feel that it would be too
e%pensi$e to resume synthetic farming at this point! gi$en the money that they
in$ested in organic farming supplies and e9uipment. 4ut their in$estments will be
relati$ely minor compared to the losses from continued lower crop yields.
Organic farmers should switch to synthetic farming rather than persist in an
unwise course. +nd the choice to farm organically is financially unwise! gi$en
that it was moti$ated by en$ironmental rather than economic concerns.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this article the author recommends that farmers who switched from synthetic to organic
farming last year should switch back to synthetic farming as soon as possible! Citing a decline in
crop yields as the primary reason for the recommendation to reverse course, the author predicts
that crop yields for organic farmers will continue to be lower unless synthetic farming is resumed!
0oreover, the author argues that organic farming is not a financially viable choice for farmers in
any case because it is motivated by environmental, not economic, concerns! %he author's position is
unconvincing for several reasons!
First, there is no evidence that the first-year yields of farmers who switched to organic farming
are representative of their future yields! Common sense would lead one to epect that first-year
yields would be lower simple due to the ineperience of farmers accustomed to synthetic farming
methods! 0oreover, other factors such as weather or infertile seed stock could be responsible
for the lower yields! +ince the author does not address these or other factors that could account
for the lower yields, his prediction that yields will continue to be lower unless a switch is made
back to synthetic farming is not well founded!
+econd, the author assumes that economic and environmental concerns are mutually eclusive and
that only enterprises motivated by economic concerns are financially rewarding! %hese
assumptions are not supported in the argument! 0oreover, there are good reasons to suspect they
may be false in the case at hand! For eample, while it may be true that synthetic farming
methods produce significantly higher yields in the short term, it may also be the case that they
fail to sustain this yield in the long term, whereas the opposite is true for organic methods! "f
this were the case, the financial advantage of synthetic over organic method would be illusory!
"n conclusion, the author's prediction that yields will continue to lower for farmers who adopt
(2 Catalog
organic farming methods is not well reasoned! %o strengthen this forecast it would be necessary
to eamine and eliminate other possible factors that could account for the lower yields
eperienced! *acking a full eamination of these factors, it is difficult to accept the author's
position! Finally, the author's view that organic farming is financially unwise is completely
unsupported!
(-. The following appeared in a letter to prospecti$e students from the admissions
office at 8lateau .ollege.
#6$ery person who earned an ad$anced degree in science or engineering from
Olympus ;ni$ersity last year recei$ed numerous offers of e%cellent 7obs.
Typically! many of the 8lateau .ollege graduates who want to pursue an
ad$anced degree ha$e gone on to Olympus. Therefore! enrolling as an
undergraduate at 8lateau .ollege is a wise choice for students who wish to ensure
success in their careers.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this letter the -lateau College admissions office advises students wishing to ensure success in
their careers to enroll at -lateau! "n support of this advice the admissions office argues that
many -lateau graduates have pursued advanced degrees at Olympus 4niversity, and that all
students who earned advanced degrees in science or engineering from Olympus received numerous
offers of ecellent /obs! %his argument is unconvincing for several reasons!
%o begin with, the argument depends upon the assumption that the -lateau graduates who have
pursued advanced degrees at Olympus 4niversity did so in science or engineering! =iven this it is
reasonable to conclude that for these students enrolling at -lateau was a wise choice! :owever,
for students ma/oring in disciplines other than science or engineering it is inconclusive whether
enrolling at -lateau is a good idea or not! For eample, it may be the case that for students
ma/oring in philosophy, Bnglish, or history, -lateau is a poor choice because it has a mediocre
program in these areas or because few of its graduates in these disciplines are admitted to
Olympus!
(et, the author has failed to indicate how many -lateau graduates who pursued advanced
degrees at Olympus actually received them! %his information is critical to determining whether
-lateau is a wise choice for students planning to attend Olympus! For eample, if it turns out that
only a small fraction of -lateau graduates who attend Olympus earn advanced degrees, the advice
to attend -lateau would be highly dubious!
Finally, the fact that all students who earned advanced degrees in science or engineering from
Olympus 4niversity last year received numerous offers of ecellent /obs is insufficient to warrant
the claim that this pattern will continue in the future! *acking evidence to the contrary, it may be
the case that this phenomenon was uni<ue, and was the result of factors other than the fact that
these students attended Olympus; for eample perhaps a ma/or employer moved into the area or
the overall economy was unusually healthy!
"n sum, the reasons for enrolling at -lateau offered by the admissions office are inconclusive! %o
Issue (3
strengthen the argument it would be necessary to show that -lateau graduates in fields other
than science and engineering might also benefit from attending Olympus! Furthermore, to properly
evaluate the argument, information regarding the percentage of -lateau graduates who received
advanced degrees from Olympus would be re<uired!
(). The following appeared in a memorandum sent by a $ice&president of the ?adir
.ompany to the company1s human resources department.
#?adir does not need to adopt the costly Nfamily&friendly1 programs that ha$e
been proposed! such as part&time work! work at home! and 7ob&sharing. /hen
these programs were made a$ailable at the 0ummit .ompany! the leader in its
industry! only a small percentage of employees participated in them. @ather than
ad$ersely affecting our profitability by offering these programs! we should
concentrate on offering e%tensi$e training that will enable employees to increase
their producti$ity.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this memorandum the vice president of (adir Company recommends against the adoption of
#family-friendly$ program! %he author's line of reasoning is that family-friendly programs such as
part-time work, work-at-home and /ob-sharing need not be adopted because (adir's employees will
not widely participate in them! %he vice president's recommendation is unconvincing for several
reasons!
"n the first place, the fact that only a small percentage of +ummit Company's employees
participated in these programs when they were offered is scant evidence that (adir's employees
will do likewise! %o warrant this inference the author must assume that +ummit is representative
of other companies such as (adir! 4nfortunately, the author has failed to provide evidence for
this crucial assumption! For eample, if +ummit is an emerging high-tech company whose
employees are young and unmarried whereas (adir is an established low-tech company whose
employees are middle-aged and married we can epect that the percentage of employees who
desire to participate in family-friendly programs would be considerably different! *acking specific
information about the companies in <uestion it is difficult to give much credence to the vice
president's position!
"n the second place, the vice president has failed to make a case for the contention that the
adoption of family-friendly programs will adversely affect (adir's profitability! On the face of it
none of the programs mentioned re<uire capital outlay for new e<uipment or additional office
space! 4nless the vice president assumes that employees who participate in such programs are less
productive than their full-time counterparts it is difficult to comprehend the line of reasoning
that leads to this view!
Finally, the vice president assumes that #family-friendly$ programs will not increase (adir's
productivity! *acking evidence to the contrary, there is little motivation to accept this assumption
as true! "n fact, common sense suggests that part-time workers and /ob-sharers would be as
productive as, or perhaps more productive than, full-time workers!
(4 Catalog
"n conclusion, the vice president's recommendation against adopting family-friendly programs is
not convincing! %o strengthen the conclusion it must be shown that +ummit is representative of
other companies such as (adir! .dditionally, evidence would have to be provided for the
assumption that employees who participate in family-friendly programs are less productive than
other employees!
(*. The following appeared as part of an article in a trade maga"ine for breweries.
#3agic 5at 4rewery recently released the results of a sur$ey of $isitors to its
tasting room last year. 3agic 5at reports that the ma7ority of $isitors asked to
taste its low&calorie beers. To boost sales! other small breweries should brew low&
calorie beers as well.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this article small breweries are urged to brew low-calorie beers in order to boost sales! "n
support of this recommendation the author cites a survey conducted at 0agic :at 2rewery
revealing that a ma/ority of visitors to its tasting room asked to taste its low-calorie beers!
-resumably, the author's line of reasoning is that since the survey conducted at 0agic :at shows a
high level of interest in low-calorie beers, other breweries would be wise to brew low-calorie
beers as well! %he author's argument is problematic for several reasons!
%o begin with, the validity of the survey conducted at 0agic :at 2rewery is doubtful! *acking
information about the number of visitors surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible
to assess the results! For eample, if 8@@ visitors were surveyed but only 2@ responded, the
ma/ority who asked to taste low-calorie beers could be as few as 88 of the 8@@ visitors! Obviously,
such result would provide little evidence for the author's recommendation! 2ecause the author
offers no evidence that would rule out interpretations such as this, the survey results as stated
are insufficient to support the recommendation!
(et, even if the results of the survey accurately reflect a high level of interest in low-calorie
beers among 0agic :at's visitors, this may not be true for other breweries! 9hile the survey is
suggestive of a widespread interest in low-calorie beers, it is insufficient to establish this general
claim because there is no reason to believe that 0agic :at 2rewery is representative of other
small breweries! For eample, if 0agic :at specialized in low-calorie beers, the results of the
survey would be highly <uestionable when applied to small breweries in general! Once again,
because the author offers no evidence that would rule out interpretations such as this, the survey
results as stated are insufficient to support the recommendation!
Finally, since the author's recommendation is aimed at boosting breweries' sales, it must be shown
that visitor interest in tasting low-calorie beers resulted in sales of these beers! (o evidence is
offered in the argument to support this crucial connection! %hus the author's recommendation
cannot be taken seriously!
"n conclusion, the survey conducted at 0agic :at 2rewery offers little support for the author's
recommendation! %o strengthen the conclusion the author would have to provide detailed
information about the survey that demonstrates its validity! 0oreover, it would be necessary to
Issue (5
show that 0agic :at 2rewery was representative of other small breweries and that visitor
interest in tasting low-calorie beers resulted in sales of these beers!
((. The following appeared in an editorial from a newspaper ser$ing the town of
0aluda.
#The 0aluda .onsolidated 5igh 0chool offers o$er 2'' different courses from
which its students can choose. + much smaller pri$ate school down the street
offers a basic curriculum of only *' different courses! but it consistently sends a
higher proportion of its graduating seniors on to college than .onsolidated does.
4y eliminating at least half of the courses offered there and focusing on a basic
curriculum! we could impro$e student performance at .onsolidated and also sa$e
many ta% dollars.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this editorial the author recommends that +aluda's Consolidated :igh +chool eliminate half of
its 2@@ courses and focus primarily on basic curriculum in order to improve student performance
and save ta revenues! %he author's recommendation is problematic for several reasons!
%o begin with, the author assumes that the only relevant difference between Consolidated and the
private school is the number of courses offered by each! :owever, other relevant differences
between the schools might account for the difference in the proportion of their graduates who go
on to college! For eample, the private school's students might be selected from a pool of gifted
or eceptional students, or might have to meet rigorous admission standards whereas
Consolidated's students might be drawn from the community at large with little or no <ualification
for admission!
(et, the author assumes that the proportion of students who go on to college is an overall
measure of student performance! 9hile this is a tempting assumption, its truth is by no means
obvious! "f student ecellence is narrowly defined in terms of the student's ability to gain access
to college, this assumption is somewhat reasonable! :owever, given a broader conception of
student ecellence that takes into account student's ability to learn and apply their knowledge to
new situations, its is not obvious that college admission is reliable indicator of performance! For
eample, students in non-academic disciplines could conceivably perform at high levels within
these disciplines but nevertheless be unable to meet college admission standards!
Finally, the author assumes that savings in ta revenues will result from the reduced costs of
funding the paired-down curriculum! %his is not necessarily true! For eample, it could turn out
that both programs serve the same number of students and re<uire the same number of
classrooms and teacher!
"n conclusion, the author has not made a convincing case for the recommendation to eliminate
courses at Consolidated and focus on a basic curriculum! %o strengthen the conclusion the author
would have to provide evidence that Consolidated and the private school were sufficiently similar
to warrant the analogy between them! 0oreover, the relationship between student performance
and college admission and the mechanism whereby savings in ta revenues would be accomplished
(- Catalog
would have to be clarified!
1''. The following appeared as part of an article in the book section of a newspaper.
#.urrently more and more books are becoming a$ailable in electronic form C
either free&of&charge on the Internet or for a $ery low price&per&book on compact
disc O. Thus literary classics are likely to be read more widely than e$er before.
8eople who couldn1t ha$e purchased these works at bookstore prices will now be
able to read them for little or no moneyB similarly! people who find it
incon$enient to $isit libraries and wait for books to be returned by other patrons
will now ha$e access to whate$er classic they choose from their home or work
computers. This increase in access to literary classics will radically affect the
public taste in reading! creating a far more sophisticated and learned reading
audience than has e$er e%isted before.,
&' (compact disc) is a small portable disc capable of storing relatively large
amounts of data that can be read by a computer.
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this article the author concludes that literary classics are likely to be read more widely than
ever before! %he author's line of reasoning is that the availability of books in electronic form and
access of books via the "nternet has removed the two ma/or impediments that prevented people
from reading literary classics, namely price and convenient access! +ince books can be accessed
from home or work via computers at little or no cost, the author believes that significant changes
in the society will occur! +pecifically, the author maintains that access to literary classics will
affect the public's taste in reading and will result in a more learned and cultured reading audience!
%he author's argument is unconvincing for several reasons!
First, the author assumes that price and convenient access are the primary reasons people fail to
read literary classics! 9hile this is a tempting assumption, it is not obviously true! For eample,
other reasons, such as lack of interest in these books or awareness of them on the part of the
reading public could e<ually account for the failure to read them! Conse<uently, it may turn out
that, contrary to the author's epectation, the number of people who read literary classics is
unaffected by their increased availability and lower cost!
+econd, while it may be the case that access to books at affordable prices has increased as a
result of new technology, the author provides no evidence for the assumption that access to
literary classics at affordable prices has increased as well! On the face of it, this assumption
seems innocuous; however there may be reasons that prevent literary classics from being
marketed in the fashion described by the author! For eample, the inability to secure the
re<uisite permissions to reproduce these books in electronic form, or the lack of commercial
interest in marketing them via the "nternet could undermine the author's assumption!
"n conclusion, this argument is not convincing! %o strengthen the argument the author would have
to provide evidence for the assumption that price and accessibility are the main reasons people
fail to read literary classics! .dditionally, evidence would be re<uired for the assumption that
Issue ()
access to literary classics will be increased!
1'1. The following appeared as an editorial in a maga"ine concerned with educational
issues.
#In our country! the real earnings of men who ha$e only a high&school degree
ha$e decreased significantly o$er the past fifteen years! but those of male college
graduates ha$e remained about the same. Therefore! the key to impro$ing the
earnings of the ne%t generation of workers is to send all students to college. Our
country1s most important educational goal! then! should be to establish enough
colleges and uni$ersities to accommodate all high school graduates.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
%his editorial advocates universal college education as a means of improving the earnings of all the
net generation of workers! "n support of this recommendation the author points out that the real
earnings of male high-school graduates have decreased over the past fifteen years whereas the
earnings of male college graduates have remained stable over the same period! Furthermore, the
author argues that a sufficient number of colleges and universities should be built to accomplish
this goal! %he author's position is implausible for a number of reasons!
"n the first place, the evidence cited by the author pertains only to male high-school and college
graduates! (o comparable comparison of the earnings of female workers is made, yet the author
recommends sending all students to college! "f it turns out that no discrepancy between the real
earnings of female high-school graduates and female college graduates eists during this same
period, the author's conclusion would be significantly weakened!
"n the second place, the author assumes that the primary factor that influences the earnings of
workers is their level of education! 9hile this is a reasonable assumption, it is by no means a
certainty! For eample, in countries undergoing political turmoil and reform, the educated class of
citizens is often discriminated against and cannot find work! "n such cases, lack of education
might turn out to be a distinct economic advantage!
Finally, a comparison of workers' earnings during a 8&-year period is insufficient evidence to
warrant the author's recommendation! Other factors besides worker's level of education could
account for the discrepancy in earnings during the period cited by the author! For eample, the
demand for college-educated workers may have outpaced the demand for high-school educated
workers during the period in <uestion and as a result increased their earnings disproportionately!
"n conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing! %o strengthen the conclusion the author
would have to provide information about the earnings of female workers that showed a trend
comparable to the one cited for male workers! .dditionally, evidence would be re<uired for the
assumption that level of education is the primary factor that influences worker's earnings!
1'2. The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of
the Take 5eart itness .enter.
#+fter opening the new swimming pool early last summer! Take 5eart saw a 12
(* Catalog
percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore! in order to
increase the number of our members and thus our re$enues! which depend on
membership fees! we should continue to add new recreational facilities in
subse9uent years: for e%ample! a multipurpose game room! a tennis court! and a
miniature golf course. 4eing the only center in the area offering this range of
acti$ities would gi$e us a competiti$e ad$antage in the health and recreation
market.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
2ecause %ake :eart Fitness Center eperienced a 82 percent increase in member usage as a result
of opening a new swimming pool last summer, the author recommends the addition of new
recreational facilities in subse<uent years as a means of increasing membership in %ake :eart!
%he author's recommendation is problematic for several reasons!
First, and foremost, the author assumes that an increase in member usage portends an increase in
membership! %his assumption may hold true in some cases! :owever, it is unlikely to hold true in
the case at hand, because it is reasonable to epect that members would visit the fitness center
to inspect and try out the new swimming pool! %his would account for the increase in usage!
:owever, since the author provides no evidence that this new rate of usage was sustained, the
abrupt increase in usage provides little evidence that the addition of facilities such as the pool will
attract new members!
+econd, the author assumes that the addition of the swimming pool was responsible for the
increase in member usage! :owever, the only evidence for this claim is insufficient to establish
the causal claim in <uestion! 9hile temporal precedence is one of the conditions re<uired to
establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition!
Conse<uently, it is possible that the addition of the pool was unrelated to the increase in usage in
the manner re<uired by the author's argument!
Finally, the author has provided no evidence to support the contention that %ake :eart will be the
only center in the area to offer a wide range of activities to its members and thus have a
competitive advantage in the fitness market!
"n conclusion, the author's belief that adding additional recreational facilities will increase %ake
:eart's membership is ill-founded! %o strengthen the argument the author would have to provide
evidence that member usage is reliable indicator of new membership! .dditionally, it would be
necessary to show that the cause of the increase in usage was the opening of the new pool!
1'3. The following appeared in a letter from a staff member in the office of
admissions at +rgent ;ni$ersity.
#The most recent nationwide sur$eys show that undergraduates choose their
ma7or field primarily based on their perception of 7ob prospects in that field. +t
our uni$ersity! economics is now the most popular ma7or! so students must
percei$e this field as ha$ing the best 7ob prospects. Therefore! we can increase
our enrollment if we focus our ad$ertising and recruiting on publici"ing the
Issue ((
accomplishments of our best&known economics professors and the success of our
economics graduates in finding employment.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
.s a means of increasing enrollment at .rgent 4niversity, the office of admissions recommends
publicizing the accomplishments of its Bconomics professors and the success of its Bconomics
graduates in finding /obs! %his recommendation is <uestionable for a number of reasons!
First, the author assumes that students will continue to perceive Bconomics favorably as a source
of employment! %his assumption, however, is not supported in the argument! %he fact that
Bconomics is currently the most popular ma/or at .rgent establishes only that Bconomics was
perceived by current students as the occupation having the best /ob prospects when they
enrolled; it does not establish that incoming students will perceive this field in the same way!
+econd, since the argument relies entirely upon nationwide surveys that establish a relation
between student perception of /ob prospects and choice of ma/or, information about the manner
in which these surveys were conducted would be necessary to properly evaluate the conclusion!
+pecifically, it would be necessary to show that the students who participated in the surveys were
representative of students in general and that a sufficient number were included in the surveys to
warrant the claim that choice of ma/or is dictated by student perception of prospective
employment! 9ithout knowing how the surveys were conducted, it is impossible to determine
whether they are reliable, and conse<uently whether the conclusion based on them is sound!
Finally, even if we accept the survey results it might be the case that Bconomics is the most
popular ma/or at .rgent for reasons other than students' perception of /ob prospects! For
eample, perhaps Bconomics is favored because it receives more funding and can offer a wider
range of courses than other ma/ors, or because more scholarships are available to Bconomics
ma/ors than to others!
"n sum, the plan to increase enrollment at .rgent is seriously flawed! %o strengthen the proposal
it would be necessary to show that Bconomics is currently viewed by students as having the best
/ob prospects! .dditionally, information validating the reliability of the survey as well as evidence
that .rgent's students chose Bconomics because of the /ob prospects would be re<uired!
1'4. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of
the rostbite ?ational 4ank.
#/e should not appro$e the business loan application of the local group that
wants to open a franchise outlet for the Mool Mone chain of ice cream parlors.
rostbite is known for its cold winters! and cold weather can mean slow ice cream
sales. or e%ample! e$en though rostbite is a town of 1'!''' people! it has only
one ice cream spot C the rigid .ow. 2espite the lack of competition! the rigid
.ow1s net re$enues fell by 1' percent last winter.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this memorandum the loan department of Frostbite (ational 2ank recommends against approval
of a business loan to a local group that wants to open an ice cream parlor! "n support of this
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decision the loan department points out that Frostbite has a reputation for cold winters and sales
of ice cream decrease in cold weather! %his latter point is buttressed by the fact that Frostbite's
only ice cream parlor suffered a 8@ percent decline in net revenues the previous winter! %he loan
department's decision is <uestionable for the following reasons!
%o begin with, since it is reasonable to epect a decline in ice cream sales during winter months, it
is difficult to assess the relevance of the fact that Frostbite has cold winters to the potential
success of the Mool Mone franchise! Common sense suggests that this fact would be significant
only if it turned out that Frostbite's winter season lasted ? or 8@ months as it does in arctic
regions! "n that case slow sales could be epected for most of the year and the loan department's
opposition to the loan would be readily understandable! "f, on the other hand, Frostbite's winter
season lasts only a few months and the remainder of the year is warm or hot, it is difficult to
comprehend the loan department's reasoning!
(et, the loan department assumes that the Frigid Cow's decline in net revenue last winter was a
result of slow sales occasioned by cold weather! 9hile this is a possible reason for the decline, it
is not the only factor that could account for it! For eample, other factors such as poor business
practices or lack of inventory could be responsible for the Frigid Cow's loss of revenue! %he loan
department's failure to investigate or even consider these and other possible eplanations for the
Frigid Cow's decline in revenue renders their decision highly suspect!
"n conclusion, the loan department's decision is ill-founded! %o better evaluate the decision, we
would need to know more about the length and severity of Frostbite's winter season! 0oreover,
evidence would have to be provided to support the assumption that the Frigid Cow's loss of
revenue last winter was a direct result of the cold weather!
1'5. The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a local newspaper.
#4ay$iew 5igh 0chool is considering whether to re9uire all of its students to
wear uniforms while at school. 0tudents attending +corn <alley +cademy! a
pri$ate school in town! earn higher grades on a$erage than 4ay$iew students and
are more likely to go on to college. 3oreo$er! +corn <alley reports few instances
of tardiness! absenteeism! or discipline problems. 0ince +corn <alley re9uires its
students to wear uniforms! 4ay$iew 5igh 0chool would do well to follow suit
and re9uire its students to wear uniforms as well.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this letter to the editor the author argues that 2ayview :igh +chool should follow the eample
of .corn Falley .cademy and re<uire its students to wear uniforms to school! "n support of this
recommendation the author points to .corn's low rate of absenteeism and tardiness as well as its
lack of discipline problems and superior student performance! %he author's recommendation is
<uestionable for a number of reasons!
%o begin with, the author assumes that all of the stated benefits are a result of .corn's
re<uirement that its students wear uniforms! On the face of it this appears to be simplistic
assumption! "t defies common sense to believe, as the author must, that the primary reason
Issue 1'1
.corn's students receive higher grades on average and are more likely to go on to college is that
they are re<uired to wear uniforms to school! +imilarly, the author's belief that .corn's low rate
of tardiness, absenteeism, and discipline problems can be attributed directly to its dress code is
not in accord with common sense!
(et, the author assumes that the only relevant difference between 2ayview and .corn is the
wearing of school uniforms! %his assumption is not supported in the argument! 0oreover, if it
turns out that .corn's students are gifted and highly motivated to learn whereas 2ayview's are
uneceptional and lack motivation to learn, common sense indicates that .corn's students would be
more likely to perform better and cause fewer problems than 2ayview's!
Finally, it is unclear whether 2ayview suffers from any of the problems the author wishes to
correct by mandating its students to wear uniforms! For eample, the author states that .corn's
students earn higher grades on average and are more likely to go on to college, but it is unclear
whether this is a comparison to 2ayview's students or to some other group! *acking assurance that
2ayview is deficient in the categories mentioned in the letter, it is difficult to accept the author's
recommendation!
"n conclusion, the author has failed to provide compelling reasons for the recommendation that
2ayview's students be re<uired to wear uniforms! %o strengthen the argument the author would
have to provide evidence for the assumption that .corn's re<uirement that students wear uniform
is responsible for the various benefits mentioned! .dditionally, it would have to be established
that 2ayview is similar in relevant respects to .corn and suffers from the problems that the
author's remedy is intended to correct!
1'-. The following appeared in a memo to the 0aluda town council from the town1s
business manager.
#@esearch indicates that those who e%ercise regularly are hospitali"ed less than
half as often as those who don1t e%ercise. 4y pro$iding a well&e9uipped gym for
0aluda1s municipal employees! we should be able to reduce the cost of our group
health insurance co$erage by appro%imately 5'P and thereby achie$e a balanced
town budget.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this memo +aluda's business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its
employees as a means of balancing the town's budget! %he manager reasons that since studies
show that people who eercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who
don't eercise, +aluda could save approimately &@E on the cost of its group health insurance
coverage by providing its employees with a well-e<uipped gym! %he savings on insurance would
balance the town's budget! %he manager's argument is unconvincing because it rests on several
unsupported and dubious assumptions!
First, the manager assumes that +aluda's employees will eercise regularly if a well-e<uipped
facility is provided for them! %his assumption is <uestionable since the mere fact that a gym is
made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let
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alone on a regular basis!
+econd, the manager assumes that +aluda's employees do not eercise regularly! Once again, the
manager offers no support for this crucial assumption! Obviously, if all of +auda's employees
already engage in daily eercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by e<uipping an
eercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance!
%hird, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for
employees and the cost of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization
rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cost of insurance! 9hile this may turn out to be
true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim!
Finally, the manager assumes that the cost of building a well-e<uipped eercise facility will not
negate the savings realized on the group health insurance! 4ntil evidence has been provided to
show that this is not the case, the manager's plan is unacceptable!
"n conclusion, the business manager's proposal to provide an eercise facility as a means of
balancing +aluda's budget is not convincing! %o strengthen the argument, evidence would have to
be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis!
1'). The following appeared in a memorandum written by the assistant manager of a
store that sells gourmet food items from $arious countries.
#+ local wine store made an interesting disco$ery last month: it sold more rench
than Italian wine on days when it played recordings of rench accordion music!
but it sold more Italian than rench wine on days when Italian songs were played.
Therefore! I recommend that we put food specialties from one particular country
on sale for a week at a time and play only music from that country while the sale
is going on. 4y this means we will increase our profits in the same way that the
wine store did! and we will be able to predict more precisely what items we
should stock at any gi$en time.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
.s a means of increasing profits and more accurately predicting what items should be stocked, the
assistant manager of a gourmet food store proposes that only music from a particular country be
played during the period food items from that country are on sale! %he basis for this proposal is
the discovery by a wine store that sales of wine from a country increased when music from that
country was played! %he manager's proposal is <uestionable for several reasons!
First, the manager assumes that the se<uence of sales eperienced by the wine store reflects a
general causal pattern! :owever, there is little evidence to support this assumption! 9hile perhaps
indicative of such a pattern, the wine store sales merely demonstrate a correlation between sales
of wine from a country and the playing of music from that country! %o establish a causal
connection between these events it would be necessary to eamine and eliminate other possible
factors that might account for this phenomenon! "n any case, it is highly <uestionable whether
evidence gathered over a one-month period is sufficient to establish the general claim in <uestion!
Issue 1'3
+econd, the manager assumes that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate
music! :owever, this is not necessarily the case! "t is consistent with the statement that the wine
store sold more French than "talian wine on days when French music was played and vice versa
when "talian music was played that no net increase in sales, and thus profit, was realized by this
method! For eample, it is possible that on days when French music was played seven bottles of
French wine were sold and three bottles of "talian 5were sold6 whereas the reverse was the case
when "talian music was played, and that in both instances only 8@ bottles were sold!
"n conclusion, the manager's recommendation is based on two dubious assumptions! %o strengthen
the argument it would be necessary to provide additional evidence to support the claim that sales
of an item are influenced by the type of music played! .dditionally, the manager would have to
provide evidence that the wine store increased its profits by playing the appropriate music!
1'*. The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of research and
de$elopment at @eady&to&/are! a software engineering firm.
#The package of benefits and incenti$es that @eady&to&/are offers to professional
staff is too costly. Our 9uarterly profits ha$e declined since the package was
introduced two years ago! at the time of our incorporation. 3oreo$er! the package
had little positi$e effect! as we ha$e had only marginal success in recruiting and
training high&9uality professional staff. To become more profitable again! @eady&
to&/are should! therefore! offer the reduced benefits package that was in place
two years ago and use the sa$ings to fund our current research and de$elopment
initiati$es.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this memorandum the director of research and development of Ieady-to-9are recommends
reducing the benefits package offered to employees as a means of increasing profits and funding
current research and development initiatives! %he director's line of reasoning is that <uarterly
profits have declined because of the current benefits package and can be increased by reducing
it! 0oreover, the director argues that the benefits package had little effect in recruiting and
training high-<uality employees! %he director's argument is <uestionable for several reasons!
%o begin with, the director's reasoning is a classic instance of #after this, therefore because of
this$ reasoning! %he only evidence put forward to support the claim that the introduction of the
benefits package is responsible for the decline in <uarterly profits is that the profits declined
after the package was introduced! :owever, this evidence is insufficient to establish the causal
claim in <uestion! 0any other factors could bring about the same result! For eample, the company
may have failed to keep pace with competitors in introducing new products or may have failed to
satisfy its customers by providing ade<uate support services! 4ntil these and other possible
factors are ruled out, it is premature to conclude that the introduction of the benefits package
was the cause of the decline in profits!
(et, the director assumes that the benefits package currently offered is responsible for the
marginal success Ieady-to-9are has eperienced in recruiting and training new high-<uality
professionals! :owever, no evidence is offered to support this allegation! Other reasons for
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Ieady-to-9are's failure to attract high-<uality professionals are not considered! For eample,
perhaps Ieady-to-9are is not a cutting edge company or is not regarded as a leader in its field!
4ntil these and other possible eplanations of the company's marginal success at recruiting and
training employees are eamined and eliminated it is folly to conclude that the benefits package
provided to the professional staff is responsible!
"n conclusion, the director has failed to provide convincing reasons for reducing the benefits
package Ieady-to-9are currently offers its professional staff! %o further support the
recommendation the director would have to eamine and eliminate other possible reasons for the
decline in Ieady-to-9are's <uarterly profits and for its lack of success in attracting high-<uality
professionals!
1'(. The following appeared in a memorandum from the $ice&president of the 2olci
.andy .ompany.
#=i$en the success of our premium and most e%pensi$e line of chocolate candies
in a recent taste test and the subse9uent increase in sales! we should shift our
business focus to producing additional lines of premium candy rather than our
lesser&priced! ordinary candies. /hen the current economic boom ends and
consumers can no longer buy ma7or lu%ury items! such as cars! they will still want
to indulge in small lu%uries! such as e%pensi$e candies.,
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
"n this memorandum the vice president of ,olci recommends changing the company's focus to the
production of premium high-priced candy products! "n support of this proposal the vice president
points to the success of ,olci's epensive line of chocolate candies in recent taste test and the
increase in sales following the test! .n additional rationale for the change in focus stems from the
speculation that consumers will continue to purchase epensive candies when they can no longer
afford ma/or luury items! %he vice president's proposal lacks cogency for three reasons!
First, the fact that the premium line of chocolates met with success in a recent taste test is
scant evidence of the claim that this line of candies will continue to be successful in the future!
%o warrant this inference the vice president must assume that the taste test was representative
of consumers' candy preferences in general! 4nfortunately, the vice president has failed to
provide evidence for this crucial assumption!
+econd, the vice president assumes that the increase in sales eperienced after the taste test
was brought about by sales of the premium candies! :owever, the only indication that this was the
case is the fact that the increase in sales followed the taste test! 4nfortunately, this evidence is
insufficient to establish the causal claim in <uestion! 9hile temporal precedence is one of the
conditions re<uired to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a
sufficient condition!
Finally, while the vice president's speculation about future sales of premium candies may turn out
to be correct, no evidence has been provided to support this prediction!
"n conclusion, the vice president has not made a convincing case for the recommendation to shift
Issue 1'5
to ,olci's business focus! %o further support this proposal the vice president would have to
provide evidence that the taste test was a reliable indicator of consumer's candy preferences!
0oreover, supporting evidence would be re<uired for the prediction that consumers will continue
to buy premium candies in the event of an economic downturn!