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ConditionalProbabilities Worksheet

The document discusses conditional probabilities and provides an example of the Monty Hall problem. It then presents a homework exercise asking to calculate (a) the probability a man has prostate cancer given a positive screening result and (b) the probability a man has prostate cancer given a negative screening result, given probabilities about the accuracy of the screening test and the likelihood of a man developing prostate cancer.

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Prabhakar Sharma
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
67 views

ConditionalProbabilities Worksheet

The document discusses conditional probabilities and provides an example of the Monty Hall problem. It then presents a homework exercise asking to calculate (a) the probability a man has prostate cancer given a positive screening result and (b) the probability a man has prostate cancer given a negative screening result, given probabilities about the accuracy of the screening test and the likelihood of a man developing prostate cancer.

Uploaded by

Prabhakar Sharma
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Conditional Probabilities

Probabilities we assign to events often depend on prior knowledge about the occurrence or nonoccurrence of one or more other events. The probability that we assign to an event A when we have
prior knowledge that another event B has already occurred is called the conditional probability of A
given B. The conditional probability of A given B is denoted by: P(A|B)

The Monty Hall Problem (the three door probability problem)


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car;
behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors,
opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to switch (pick door
No. 2) or stay with your first choice?"
Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Using Bayes' Formula:

Homework Exercise
The probability that a man between 50 & 70 will develop prostate cancer is approximately 8.54%.
A screening test for prostate cancer will detect the disease 80% of the time for men that have the
disease. For men that don't have the disease, the test is accurate 90% of the time.
(a) If a man gets screened for prostate cancer and receives a positive result, what is the probability
that he has the disease?
(b) If a man gets screened for prostate cancer and receives a negative result, what is the probability
that he does have the disease?

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