Answer For Past Year
Answer For Past Year
Answer For Past Year
Let D = Default on loan; D' = No default; R = Loan rejected; R = Loan approved Given:
P(D) = 0.2
P(D') = 0.8
P(R | D) = 0.9
P(R' | D') = 0.7
(a) P(R | D') = 1 0.7 = 0.3
P D R
(b)
2. a.
b.
P R D P D
P R D P D P R D P D
0.3 0.8
0.57
0.7 0.5
0.78
0.3 0.5
0.27
0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5
0.8 0.5
0.89
0.8 0.5 0.1 0.5
0.2 0.5
0.18
0.2 0.5 0.9 0.5
Week
Actual
Miles
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
17
21
19
23
18
16
20
18
22
20
15
22
Forecast
(Ft)
17.00
17.00
17.80
18.04
19.03
18.83
18.26
18.61
18.49
19.19
19.35
18.48
Error
+4.00
+1.20
+4.96
1.03
2.83
+1.74
0.61
+3.51
+0.81
4.35
+3.52
RSFE
+4.00
+5.20
+10.16
+9.13
+6.30
+8.04
+7.43
+10.94
+11.75
+7.40
+10.92
Sum of
Absolute
Forecast
Errors
4.00
5.20
10.16
11.19
14.02
15.76
16.37
19.88
20.69
25.04
28.56
MAD
4.00
2.60
3.39
2.80
2.80
2.63
2.34
2.49
2.30
2.50
2.60
Track
Signal
1
2
3
3.3
2.25
3.05
3.17
4.21
5.11
2.96
4.20