Project by: Eli Fullmer, Lindsay Smith and Valeria Moncada.

MODELING UTAH POPULATION

DATA
Math 1010 Intermediate Algebra Group Project
According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, the population of Utah
appears to have increased linearly over the years from 1980 to 2008. The following table shows
the population in 100,000s living in Utah according to year. In this project, you will use the data
in the table to find a linear function f (x) that represents the data, reflecting the change in
population in Utah.

Estimates of Utah Resident Population, in

100,000's
1981 1989 1993 1999 2005
2008
1
9
13
19
25
28

Year
x
Population,
y

15.2

17.1

19

22

25

27.4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

1.

Using the graph paper on the last page to plot the data given in the table as ordered pairs.
Label the x and y axes with words to indicate what the variables represent.

2.

Use a straight edge to draw on your graph what appears to be the line that best fits the
data you plotted. You will only have one line drawn, rather than several pieces of lines.

3.

Estimate the coordinates of two points that fall on your best-fitting line. Write these
points below.

( 13 , 19 ), ( 19 , 22 )
Use the points that you wrote down to find a linear function f(x) for the line. Show your
work!
y=

2219 3 1
= =
1913 6 2

1
y19= (x13)
2
1
13
y19= x
2
2

1
25
y= x +
2
2
1
y= x +12.5
2

f(x) =

4.

1
x+12.5
2

What is the slope of your line?

m=

1
2

It might make sense to write your slope as a decimal. Interpret its meaning using a phrase
like for any one unit increase in x we expect an m unit increase in y. Does it make sense
in the context of this situation? Please use complete sentences to respond to these
questions.

For any two units increased in x we expect a one unit increase in y.

5.

Find the value of f (45) using your function from part 3. Show your work, then write your
result in the blank below.
1
f (45)= (45)+12.5
2
f (45)=22.5=12.5
f (45)=35

f(45) = 35
Write a sentence interpreting the meaning of f (45) in the context of this project. What year does
the 45 represent?

f ( x)

represents the number of years since 1980. f (45) equals the

estimated population of Utah 45 years from 1980 which would be the year
2025. The estimated population in the year 2025 is 3,500,000 people.

6.

Use your function from part 3 to approximate in what year the residential population of
Utah reached 2,000,000. Show your work.
1
f ( x)= x +12.5
2
1
20= x +12.5
2
1
x=2012.5
2
1
x= 7.5
2
x=15

15 years after 1980 would be the year 1995. The approximation of when the
population of Utah reached 2,000,000 is in the year 1995.
7.

Compare your linear function with that of another student or group.

Comparison function:

f(x) =

1
x+12.5
2

Is the comparison function the same as the function you wrote down for part 3?

Yes, it is the same function that we wrote down.

If they are different, explain why.

If they are the same, explain why.

The functions are the same because they chose to use the same points that we
did. Like us, they plugged the points into the point slope form and thus arrived
at the same linear function.
In actuality, using a linear growth model for population is not common. Most models are
exponential models, due to the fact that most populations experience relative growth, i.e. 2%
growth per year (What does this mean? You might have to look this up). Linear models for
nonlinear relationships like population work only within a small time frame valid close to the
time of the data modeled.
8.

Discuss some of the false conclusions you might reach if you use your linear model for
times far from 1980-2008.

A linear function implies a straight and constant line and slope.

Representing population growth with a linear function would thus show
population increasing evenly over time. This is a false conclusion because
population does not always increase consistently. Relative growth would
cause population to rise faster in less time without a linear slope. As time
goes on there is a more dramatic change in population between intervals (in
this case years).
9.

Determining a line of best fit using our method is sufficient for our project but leads to
subjectivity from one student to the next. Thus a more appropriate method is to perform
a linear regression in which every point is taken in to account to find the best line that fits
the given data. This process is algebraically intensive but is performed with ease using
technology. There are many free programs online that will do a linear regression for you
or you can create one in MS Excel. On our CANVAS page you will see a link to step by
step instructions to create a linear regression and produce a nice graphic that can be copy
and pasted into any word document. Here is a link that I found on YouTube that may also
be helpful

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExfknNCvBYg

10.

Reflective Writing: This project is meant to connect our topic with lines to a bigger
picture where linear equations are used in the real world. Please a small paragraph to
discuss the following topics.
a. Did this project change the way you think about application of mathematics?
If so why? If not then how did it support your current beliefs?

This project did change the way the I think about the application of
mathematics. My original beliefs were that math is just a subject needed to
graduate from college and is not often applied in real life situations. Clearly this is
not correct. I can now see that it is used in many professions. Math is used daily is
especially helpful in planning for the future. A city would need to use this linear
regression in order to determine how the population will change over time and thus
they can plan on how to accommodate for a greater population in the future.
b.

Discuss some other possible applications of Linear Regression

A Linear Regression is applicable in many other situations. Linear

Regressions could be used to determine the rate at which a business needs to grow
in order to meet a specific demand. For example, UPS will need to determine the
rate at which population is increasing as well as online purchases so that they can

plan for how many drivers they will need trained to make the increased number of
deliveries. A linear regression can also be used to determine interest rates on an
investment or savings account with a specific rate of return. As the total amount of
money saved increases, there will be a greater amount of money added by the set
interest rate. Putting this into a linear regression would assist in planning for an
individuals retirement. One could calculate the amount of money that would be in
the account when they reached 65 years of age if they continued to put in a
consistent amount each month. From here they could adjust accordingly to meet
potential future needs.
c.

There will be another part of this assignment that I will post on CANVAS

Grading Rubric
1
2
3
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14.
15.

graph dots
Labels
draw line
two points
eqn of line
state slope
Interpret slope
make sense?
find f(45)
Interpret of f(45)
Find year x
calendar year
Different, why?
Discuss faults
Create Regression
Reflective Writing
TOTAL=

5
5
5
2
5
3
10
5
5
10
5
5
5
10
10
10
100

Notes:
This project must be an exposition of your best work. Please show effort and put thought
into your write-up. Be clear, organized and write neatly. You may need to turn in a
second draft and not your first work up.
b. In questions 4 and 5 when an interpretation is asked for use words that you would use if
you were discussing the topic with a friend. Use words that talk about the size of the
population per year or ..
c. Question 8 asks you to compare our linear model with an exponential model. You are
being asked to talk about the false conclusion our model will give not related topics of
sickness, birth rates, industrialization.
a.

This project is due Thursday February 26th