Hershey Kiss Probability Lesson Plan
Hershey Kiss Probability Lesson Plan
Hershey Kiss Probability Lesson Plan
CONTEXT OF LESSON
Students should have prior knowledge of fractions, being able to
represent a part of a whole. In addition, students should be able to correctly place 0, 1/3, , 2/3, and 1 on
a number line. Students should also have experience with collecting data in a chart. Finally, students
should be familiar with percentages.
CONCEPTS TO BE COVERED Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring. The likelihood of
an event can be quantified by using a value from 0 to 1.
RELATED VIRGINIA STANDARDS OF LEARNING
5.14 The student will make predictions and determine the probability of an outcome by constructing
a sample space.
5.15 The student, given a problem situation, will collect, organize, and interpret data in a variety of
forms.
LESSON OBJECTIVES
1. The students will predict the probability of a Hersheys Kiss landing on its base.
2. The students will participate in an experiment, collect and organize data, and determine the
probability of a Hersheys Kiss landing on its base.
3. The students will quantify the probability of a Hersheys Kiss landing on its base by assigning
values from 0 to 1 and by placing the number on a number line.
ASSESSMENT OF LEARNING
1. To assess objective 1, each student will write a prediction of a Hersheys Kiss landing on its base
at the top of the worksheet provided.
2. To assess objective 2, students will work in groups to fill out a chart with the data they receive
from their experiment with the Hersheys Kisses. The students will collect data for ten trials of
spilling the Hersheys Kisses and counting the number of Kisses that land on their base. The
students will determine the probability of a Kiss landing on its base for each trial. In addition, the
students will use all ten trials to produce a total (Number of Hersheys Kisses landing on their
base/Total number of Hersheys Kisses), which will represent a more accurate probability (Group
Assessment).
3. To assess objective 3, each group will write their total probability on a sticky note and place it
appropriately on a number line that is label from 0 to 1. For individual assessment, students will be
required to fill out an exit slip that asks the students to mark the probability of an event occurring
on a number line.
MATERIALS NEEDED
For each group of students: (5 groups of 3)
10 Hersheys Kisses
16 oz. cup
Sticky note
Hersheys Kiss Data Sheet (attached)
For each student:
Exit slip (attached)
For the teacher:
Quarter
Differently colored sticky note
Calculator
For Challenge Problem:
15 Jelly Bean Probability Worksheets
For Remedial Problem:
15 Flip a Coin Worksheets
15 Coins
PROCEDURES
BEFORE
Student 1: 80%.
Teacher: Why did you decide on 80%?
Student 1: Since the Hersheys Kiss has a skinny round
top and a big flat bottom, I think it has an easier chance
on landing on the base.
Teacher: Did anyone have a different answer?
Student 2: 20%
Teacher: How did you determine that percentage?
Student 2: It has more sides than a base, so it has a less
likely chance to land on the base.
Student 1: 50%.
Teacher: Or? How else could you say that?
Student 2: One-half.
Student 1: Yes.
Teacher: Does anyone think that it will not happen 50%
of the time?
Student 2: I dont. It just seems unlikely.
After groups are formed, show the students the When in groups, students should assign roles: spiller,
worksheet. Tell them that each person in the
counter, and recorder.
group is to write their prediction of a Hersheys
Kiss landing on its base before beginning the
experiment. Explain the first two columns. The
first column will be where they write how
many Kisses landed on their base. The second
column will be where they write the total
number of Kisses (it will be 10 for each trial).
Do the first trial together. Each group should
3
How did you get the numbers you put on your chart?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
REMEDIAL Problem: For students who struggle with the problem, give the following worksheet and
provide them with a coin. Ask them to flip the coin and record their data. Then, scaffold the student to
determine the probability of a coin landing on heads or tails.
Flip a Coin:
Probability is the chance that an event will happen. When flipping a coin, there are equal chances that it
will land heads or tails. Want to prove it? Flip a coin 10 times. Record your outcomes in the chart and
answer the questions below.
Before you flip, try to make a prediction.
Out of 10 flips, how many times do you think it will land on heads?
Out of 10 flips, how many times do you think it will land on tails?
out of 10
out of 10
REFLECTION
A. Based on your plan for assessing learning and the data you collected,
evaluate the success of the lesson. Be thorough in your description. Cite
multiple examples of student behavior and language that document your
conclusions.
Gets it
a.
Understand
s
Student A
Student B
Student C
Student D
Student E
Student F
the
meaning of
probability.
This was
shown in
her verbal
explanation
of her
prediction
of the
probability
of a Kiss
landing on
its base.
She
predicted
50%
because
she thought
the Kiss
was just as
likely to
land on its
base as it is
on its side.
the meaning
of
probability.
This was
shown in his
verbal
explanation
of his
prediction of
the
probability
of a Kiss
landing on
its base. He
predicted
25%
because he
thought the
Kiss had a
less chance
of landing
on its base
than on its
side but it
was not
impossible.
the
meaning of
probability.
This was
portrayed in
his
prediction,
as he
explained
that he
thought the
Kiss would
land on its
base 40% of
the time
and that it
would less
likely land
on its base
than its
side.
the
meaning of
probability
as the
likelihood
of an
event
occurring.
His
prediction
was that a
Kiss would
land on its
base 40%
of the
time.
When I
asked him
to explain
his
prediction,
he said
that he
chose 40%
because
he thought
it would
land on its
base a
little less
than half
of the
time.
when an event
has the
probability of
50%, it has an
equal chance
to occur or not.
Her prediction
of a Kiss
landing on its
base was 50%.
She explained
that she
thought the
Kiss had an
even chance to
land on its
base and its
side.
I only had
one
student
who did
not get
it.
how to
collect and
organize
data. This
was
exemplified
by the
completion
of the data
sheet,
which led
her to find
the
probability
of a Kiss.
She was in
the group
that only
had two
collecting
and
organizing
data in a
chart. This
was shown
by his
successful
completion
of the data
sheet, which
allowed him
to find the
probability
of a Kiss
landing on
its base.
Additionally,
how to
collect data.
His role in
the
experiment
was the
counter.
Therefore,
he provided
his group
with all the
numbers in
the first
column of
the data
sheet.
Overall, his
job was to
collect the
data. He
then worked
with the
recorder to
how to
collect and
organize
data. This
was shown
through
his
interaction
with
counting
and filling
how to collect
and organize
data. Her job
was the
recorder. She
wrote down the
data that was
collected by
the counter. By
successfully
completing the
data sheet, it is
evident that
she
understands
how to
organize data.
students, so
she took on
much
responsibilit
y in
completing
the table
(as she had
to take on
more than
one role). In
addition,
this
portrays
her ability
to add
multiple
numbers
together, as
she
successfully
found the
totals.
quantifying
probability.
This was
exemplified
by her
successful
completion
of the exit
slip. She
correctly
placed the
five events
on the
probability
number line
that was
labeled 0
(impossible)
to 1
(certain).
probability
in relation
to unlikely
and likely.
This is
exemplified
by her
correct
placement
of events
on a
number line
(exit slip)
this
exemplifies
his ability to
add multiple
(10)
numbers
together to
find a total.
It also shows
his ability to
convert
fractions
into
percentages
.
quantifying
probability.
He correctly
placed
events on
the
probability
number line
provided on
the exit slip.
For example,
he placed c)
It will rain
orange juice
tomorrow on
0 because it
is
impossible.
He also
quantified
probability
in various
forms:
fractions
(Data
Collection
Sheet and
Challenge
Problem)
and
percentages
(Data
Collection
Sheet and
Remedial
Problem).
determine
the
fractions
and
percentages
that were to
be made
from the
data
collected.
probability
in relation
to likely and
unlikely. On
the
Challenge
Problem, he
actually
began to
answer
questions 1
through 3
with likely
and
unlikely
instead of
fractions.
For
instance, he
answered
number 3)
What is the
probability
of picking a
green jelly
bean? with
the word
unlikely.
This shows
that he
knows if
something
occurs 1 out
of 12 times,
it is unlikely
to happen.
probability
can mean an
event is
impossible,
unlikely,
out of data
sheet. He
worked
with his
group to
complete
the chart.
He was in
charge of
writing the
informatio
n down.
Thus, he
understan
ds how to
put
collected
data into
the
organized
format of a
chart.
b.
Confused
about
and through
her answers
to
questions 4
and 5 on
the
Challenge
Problem.
She was
able to
identify that
a white jelly
bean would
be most
likely
picked and
green
would be
the least
likely to be
picked.
equally
likely, likely,
or certain to
occur. This is
shown
through the
correct
placement
of events on
a number
line (exit
slip). Also,
his
knowledge
is
exemplified
by
acknowledgi
ng a white
jelly bean is
more likely
to be picked
and a green
is least likely
(Challenge
Problem).
On the data
sheet, she
wrote that
1/10 equals
1%.
However,
the rest of
her
conversions
were
correct,
such as
4/10 equals
40%.
N/A
the
probability
of a coin
landing on
tails. She
predicted
that a coin
will land on
heads 50%
of the time,
but she also
predicted
that a coin
will land on
tails 70% of
the time.
However,
when she
quantifying
probability.
On the exit
slip, he
struggled to
place some
of the
events
correctly on
the number
line. For
example, he
placed A)
Snow will
fall in
August
around
(or 75%),
which
indicates
the event is
likely to
happen.
10
probability
as a
fraction.
On the
Challenge
Problem,
he
answered
number 1
with the
fraction
4/12.
However,
the correct
answer is
5/12. This
may be a
counting
error;
therefore,
he may
understan
d
probability
as a
fraction.
Clarificatio
n of his
answer is
necessary
to
determine
probability as a
fraction. On
the Challenge
Problem,
numbers 3 and
4 are answered
incorrectly. She
said the
probability of
picking a pink
jelly bean was
3 . The
correct answer
is 3/12 or . I
do not know
where she got
the from.
Also, she
answered
number 3)
What is the
probability of
picking a green
jelly bean?
with 1/10.
There are 12
jelly beans in
all, so the right
answer would
be 1/12.
answered
the
question,
What is
the
probability
that a coin
will land on
heads or
tails?, she
wrote 50%.
c.
Questions
to ask to
clarify what
I know
Since you
know that
4/10 equals
40%, what
percentage
would 1/10
equal? Do
the
calculation
by division
if
necessary.
Does a coin
have a
better
chance of
landing on
this
accusation
(see
Questions
to Ask).
quantifying
probability
and
determinin
g
probability
as being
likely or
unlikely.
Like
student C,
he
incorrectly
placed an
event on
the
number
line. He
marked
event E) A
dog will
speak
English
around
60%,
which
means
that the
event
would be
likely to
occur.
Tell me why
the white
jelly bean is
more likely
to be pulled
out of the
bag. Why is
the green
jelly bean
least likely
to be
picked?
Is it
impossible,
unlikely, an
even
chance,
likely, or
certain that
it will snow
in August?
If an event
occurs 75%
of the time,
is it unlikely
or likely to
happen?
11
Can you
look at the
jelly bean
problem
again and
tell me
what is the
probability
of picking
a white
jelly bean?
Is it really
likely that
a dog will
speak
English?
quantifying
probability and
determining
probability as
being likely or
unlikely. Her
answer for
event B) I will
speak at least
one word
today as
having a 50%
chance of
occurring may
be acceptable
as she is a very
shy student.
However, she
placed event
D) A new baby
will be a boy
around 40%.
She did not
take into
consideration
that there are
only two
outcomes (a
boy or girl), so
the correct
answer would
be 50%.
Could you
explain to me
your answer
for number 2
on the
Challenge
Problem?
Where did you
get the
from?
How many jelly
beans are
there in all?
How many of
the jelly beans
are green?
What would be
tails than it
does on
heads? Why
or why not?
d. Ideas to
work on
next
Explanation
of the
fraction to
percentage
conversion
may be
useful.
Because of
the
confusion
with the
coin
probability,
give her
more
experiences
with
probability
by
completing
a spinner
activity.
the probability
of picking that
one jelly bean?
Since he
portrays
great
understandi
ng of
probability,
his
knowledge
could be
furthered by
displaying
the data on
probability
of a Kiss in a
line graph.
More
practice on
quantifying
probability,
deepening
his
understandi
ng of
probability
being
represented
by a
number 0-1.
Making a
connection
between
probability
and
unlikely
and likely.
Reviewing
fractions and
parts of a
whole would be
beneficial for
this student
before
continuing with
probability.
Connect his
knowledge
of fractions
to
probability.
B. How did your actual lesson differ from your plans? Describe the changes you
made and explain why you made them. Be thorough and specific in your
description.
First of all, a couple of students were missing. Therefore, the grouping that
had been originally planned had to be altered. One group only had two people
rather than three. This was okay, however, because the two students were more
involved with the experiment because they had more responsibility. A major issue
during implementation of this lesson was time. The activity took much less time
than expected. The groups finished around the same time, so this was not an issue.
However, the class as a whole finished the lesson about ten minutes earlier than the
time that had been allotted. Luckily, I had a challenge problem prepared. Each
student worked on this problem individually. They finished this activity in five
minutes. Therefore, there was still time left in the math period. The students were
then given the remedial problem. Originally, I had planned to use this problem for
students who were struggling with the Hersheys Kiss experiment. However, all
students seemed to understand the Hersheys Kiss experiment; thus, this problem
was not needed for that purpose. It was needed for the purpose of filling in extra
time. Since the students seemed to not have trouble with the concept of probability,
I let them work in groups to complete the remedial problem of determining the
probability of a coin landing on heads or tails. Their job was to flip a coin, record
data, and determine the probability. Some groups finished this activity very quickly,
so I asked them to continue flipping the coin to gain more data (the worksheet only
12
required 10 trials). I reminded them that more data leads to a more accurate
experiment.
C. Based on this experience, what changes would you make if you were to present this activity again?
Why? Cite at least one way you could incorporate developmentally appropriate practice in a better or
more thorough way.
If I were to present this activity again, I would have a better explanation of
why 30/100 equals 30%. Some students did not understand this concept. Because
most of the chart required them to change 3/10 into a percentage, which would be
30% (adding a zero to 3), students automatically assumed they would add a zero to
30/100. They thought the percentage of 30/100 was 300%. I tried to explain that
percent means per 100, so 30/100 would be 30 per 100 which is 30%. However,
this did not click with them. Also, if I were to teach this lesson again I would find a
way to dive deeper into the concept of probability because the lesson as is does not
occupy enough time for an entire math lesson. Perhaps, it is too basic for fifth grade.
Even though it is fun for the students, it would probably be a more effective lesson
for third or forth graders. Finally, I would change the Flip a Coin problem. Most
students did not get 50% by conducting only 10 trials. Therefore, they became
confused because they know the probability of a coin landing on heads or tails is
50%, but the experiment did not show that it was true. Therefore, I would add more
trials because more data gives a more accurate answer.
D. What did you learn from this experience about children, teaching, and yourself?
Children
As a result of planning and conducting this activity, I learned that children love
hands-on activitiesand candy! These two characteristics really engaged the
students in the lesson. In addition, I learned that students learn best when they can
relate math to real life experiences. By teaching probability with candy, it made
probability more meaningful rather than an abstract mathematical concept. Finally, I
learned that providing students roles gives them authority over their education.
Teaching
Planning and conducting this lesson taught me to always be prepared. You never
know what could go wrong with a lesson, so you must have back up plans. For
example, this lesson was completed quickly; therefore, I am glad I had back up
problems for the students to solve. I also learned that you should have thorough
explanations of concepts you expect the students to already know. Through
planning, I had anticipated some student questions. Therefore, I was able to
successfully explain their questions. However, I did make assumptions on student
knowledge of mathematical concepts (30/100 equaling 30%). Overall, I learned not
to make assumptions and be prepared to explain each mathematical concept that is
presented in your lesson.
Myself
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As a result of planning and conducting this lesson, I was reassured that I love
teaching. Seeing the students become excited about math and seeing them
understand the concepts presented before them put a smile on my face. I know this
is a profession in which I am passionate and in which I thoroughly enjoy. Also, I
learned that I could be adaptable in the midst of a lesson. I can think of things on
the top of my head and implement them. This is mainly due to preparation, which is
something I work hard on prior to the lesson to ensure the best learning
environment for students.
References
Education.com. (2010, May 21). Flip a coin: Learning probability. Retrieved from
http://www.education.com/worksheet/article/flip-coin-learning-probability/
Education.com. (2011, April 19). Spring math: Jelly bean probability. Retrieved from
http://www.education.com/worksheet/article/spring-math-probability/
Haller, S. K., & Richardson, M. G. (2004). Comparing kisses. Mathematics Teaching in the Middle
School, 10(4), 190-193. Retrieved from http://www.mrpshomepage.com/MATH%20PLUS
%20TEAM%20ASSIGNMENTS/Comparing%20Kisses.pdf
Richardson, M., & Haller, S. (2002). What is the probability of a kiss? (Its not what you think). Journal
of Statistics Education, 10(3). Retrieved from
http://www.amstat.org/publications/jse/v10n3/haller.html
Wallace, A. (May 2007). Anticipating Student Responses to Improve Problem Solving. Mathematics
Teaching in the Middle School, 12(9), 504-511.
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