Options Trading
Options Trading
Options Trading
Introduction
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters
discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on,
the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury
with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a
dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years, Alexis de
Tocqueville from his two-volume study of the American people and their political institutions
called Democracy in America.
The United States has been one of the worlds greatest civilizations for the past 237 years. Weve
surpassed the average by 18%. It would seem, however, that our time is nearly up. China, the
worlds second largest economy and also the banker for the U.S., is soon going to take over the
top spot and be the worlds largest economy.
European debt issues are only getting worse and its only a matter of time before Greece exits the
Eurozone, which will have earth-shattering implications for the 17-member Eurozone nations.
Domestically the New Year brings about a slew of tax increases and regulatory changes that are
going to stifle economic growth in the U.S. Prior to Jan 1, the market will see massive tax selling
as individuals and funds seek to shelter gains from increasing taxes. So in the immediate future
there are definite political and economic events that are going to drive volatility significantly
higher and markets lower. In this type of market, options traders thrive and profit.
Therefore, now is the perfect time to discover how to consistently profit in the face of volatility.
Find out how in this new, up-close-and-personal report The Volatility Kings: How These Three
Pro Traders Consistently Profit in the Face of Volatility.
We asked each trader how they got started trading, why they chose the Equities and Options
market in which to trade, their greatest successes, biggest failures and the lessons they've learned
along the way. Their responses will enlighten you; some may even surprise you. Perhaps they
will even alter the way in which you trade and lead you on a new a faster path to prosperity.
We are pleased to share this informative report with you.
Matthew Buckley
Chief Investment Strategist
www.WealthCreationInvesting.com
Guy Cohen
Gareth Feighery
Chuck Hughes
Interviewer:
Why don't you talk to me a little bit about your background and how you got
started trading?
Guy:
I was always interested in the markets and then I did a finance MBA where I
specialized in options trading. I created my own options trading software, which
then morphed into being stock trading software and then combining the two. That
was really my background, partly academic and partly on the job.
Interviewer:
How novel that you actually got started doing an MBA in options trading.
Guy:
Yes, that's right. And writing my own software of course, that's also fairly unique.
Interviewer:
Guy:
Yes, equities and options. I know this is for the U.S., there are other things they
trade . . .
Interviewer:
Guy:
Equities, options, CFDs and spread bet is basically what I can do.
Interviewer:
Guy:
CFDs and spread betting. Spread betting is basically like CFDs. CFDs
and spread betting is basically highly leveraged stock trading.
Interviewer:
Tell me a little bit about what's unique to each market and why you
like trading them.
Guy:
Well, with options you can do all kinds of different strategies. With equities it's
just plain vanilla. With CFDs you can do plain vanilla but with big leverage and
with spread betting you can do big leverage and in theory trade free of tax as well.
Those are the four main characteristics of each of those.
Interviewer:
Guy:
Yes. In terms of futures, they don't really cover the stocks. Single stock futures
never really took off in a way that was relevant to me. Forex
is a totally different animal which I've never understood.
Interviewer:
Isn't that interesting, how some people have gravitated towards one
market versus another? I would assume if you were a trader that all the markets
would be understandable and intriguing.
Guy:
The thing is, actually, they're very different. I once heard someone say that
they've been supposedly a Forex trader for 30 years and suddenly they said they
were applying the same principles to stock trading and training people on that
level. I just knew that couldn't be true. They are completely different animals and
have completely different types of set-ups.
They exhibit different characteristics, so they have to be traded differently. When
it comes to Forex and stocks, they may as well be on different planets.
Interviewer:
Guy:
Interviewer:
I think you answered my next question, which is what's distinctive of how you
trade.
Guy:
Interviewer:
Guy:
I think it's the fact that we're doing something that is very particular, and we're
very comfortable with not having positions on the market. Our view of the
markets is when the market is looking like a weak prey, and then we'll be the
predator. If the prey doesn't look weak, we won't be the predator. We only go for
things where the planets have lined up really well and that way you can be very
successful.
Interviewer:
Guy:
Global events will affect trading per se, but we do try to avoid specific news
events like earnings seasons when we're trading like this. We avoid that. A
surprise global event, there's not much we can do about that unless it was
telegraphed; unless it was known that it was going to be announced.
They'll affect trading inevitably, but we don't trade global events per se.
Interviewer:
Let's talk a bit about volatility. What do you like about trading volatility?
Guy:
When volatility goes in your direction, obviously that's when you're going to
make money. We like a market that looks like it's going to explode in our favor.
It's our job to make sure that we're only involved when that burst is happening,
and when it's happening in our favor. That's what we
like about it.
Otherwise what we like is a technical market, a market that is easier to predict is
what we really prefer. Stable markets with trending. Trends may start from an
explosion of volatility, so that can also happen.
Interviewer:
Guy:
The big problem about volatility if you're trading directionally is if you get whipsawed. Again, we do an awful lot to try and minimize our drawdown, and
minimize the chance of a whip-saw.
Interviewer:
Guy:
Interviewer:
Can you talk a little bit more about what a break-out is exactly?
Guy:
Let's say a stock's been going sideways for a few bars or even for a few weeks
even in some cases, where it's formed a range between a high and a low. What we
like to do is trade the break-out of that range, if our indicator, our OVI indicator,
is also pointing in that direction of the break-out. That's what we do.
Sometimes the break-outs are very small, because they're what we call flag
patterns. They only last a few bars. Sometimes they might be quite a lot longer,
they might be months' worth of range-bound action with the stock price and then
it's getting ready to break out, you can see the stock drifting towards, near the
resistance or the support, the OVI indicator is corroborating that, and it can be a
break-out from one of those.
Interviewer:
Guy:
Very strict. For starters, we always set a conservative profit target, first profit
target. What we do is we split the trade into two. We have a first profit target
that's conservative, so we have a target that's very easy for the stock to reach. We
take half our money off the table at that point, we close up the trade with a profit,
and then what we do is we raise our stop for the remainder of the trade to near the
breakeven of where that trade is.
Then as the stock continues to go in our favor, we will then follow that with a
pretty simple trend line. That's how we manage our money, manage our trade in
there.
Interviewer:
Guy:
Well, psychology is important, but not on its own. The key bit to psychology the
way we trade it is that our trading plan takes care of your psychology. I'll give you
an example here.
If you were to trade a stock, you wanted to buy a stock of 50 and it goes
up to 55, you're pretty happy. Then you look the next day and it's down at
53. The typical inexperienced trader will say, "Oh, I'll sell it when it
gets back up to 55." The next day it's at 51. "I'll sell it when it gets up
to 53 or 55."
Then the next day they look and now it's at 49. They go, "Oh, well I'm not
going to sell it until it gets back to my break even." Then the next day they look
and it's at 44. Now they're panicking.
Now, traders will then learn their lesson supposedly. The next time they see a
stock at 50, it goes up to 55, and they sell the lot. They take their profit at 55.
They think, "That's great, I've made 10%, I'm very happy."
Being human beings, you always tend to have a quick look at what happened
afterwards, even though you're out of the trade, that's just our ego and requirement
to be right. What happens is, what happens if he looks the next day and it's now
not 55, but it's 65. He missed out on all that profit.
Our trading plan specifically addresses the need for a human being to have an
immediate result, an immediate reward, for a good trade done, but also the need to
hang in there for part of your trade or at least half of it, so if it continues to go in
your direction, you're on for that ride.
That takes care of both of those very deep seated human needs. The way that we
look at it is that you can't necessarily train everyone to be unemotional about
trading, because it's not an unemotional game. It is an emotional game. What we
have to have is a trading plan that can keep your emotions in check, and to keep
you on the straight and narrow, if you like.
If your trading plan is good and robust and sensible and has an understanding of
human emotions, then you're halfway there. Then if you look at that example,
that's a very similar example to what I've done before. Then it's also a very similar
example to what everyone's done. Everyone's had a situation where they let a
winner turn into a loser, and what we do is we do not let that happen.
We set a modest profit target for the first half of the trade, and then the rest can
ride. That way we very rarely have a situation where a winner turns into a loser,
and that's good psychology from our point of view.
Not everyone is psychologically trainable in the way that you would want them to
be. What you have to do is you have to have a really good trading plan to take
care of that.
Interviewer:
I have two follow-up questions. One of them is, I've heard from other
traders that you need to take the emotion completely out of trading.
Guy:
It's impossible. It's a ridiculous comment when they say that. It doesn't mean
anything. You can't take emotion out of trading, it is an emotional game. When
you have money coming in and money coming out, I defy anyone to say that
doesn't affect them emotionally.
What you have to do is have a trading plan where the real art of it is to be a
predator, only go for the weak prey, i.e. the stocks that are showing absolutely
that they look like they're going to do what they need to do for you. Then you
need to manage that trade in a way that allows you to take a quick reward, doesn't
have you in a situation where your winners turn into losers, but where you can, if
the market goes very right for you, you're on for that ride as well.
It's such a nothing comment. People go "take the emotion out." It doesn't mean
anything. You have to manage those emotions, and everyone's emotions are
different anyway. The only way to deal with that in a practical sense, and this is
coming from a lot of experience, just practical knowledge, is you've got to have
the right trading plan.
Without it, I don't care if you're a robot. You're still going to have big emotions if
things go wrong for you.
Interviewer:
It's more about managing the emotions that exist as supposed to suppressing
them?
Guy:
Yes. I don't believe they can be suppressed. Also you've got to manage your
deeper level of what's going on under the hood. Some people actually go into
trading in order to lose money, believe it or not. Just like some people go to the
casino, they go in with $100 and they go, "I can afford to lose that." They've
already prepared themselves to lose it by saying that. A lot of people do the same
with trading. They go, "I've got $1,000, that's what I can afford to lose."
They're already focusing on that. That's what they've gone into trading to do.
There's some sort of weird psychological requirement for them to burn their
money. I don't know why, but we've all been there. You have to understand. Only
a good trade that just doesn't go my way, that's the only way I'm going to lose.
That's the kind of attitude you've got to have. An awful lot of people actually find
trading like gambling or rather a lot of people gamble rather than trade anyway in
the markets. It just looks like trading because it's in the financial market. People's
subconscious needs aren't always going to be constructive.
Interviewer:
Guy:
Here taking a small amount, I think about $14,000 into about $300,000, $350,000
in a few months. That was pretty fun.
Interviewer:
Guy:
It's very difficult to think about just one lesson, to be honest. There are so many
that end up creating your style. I think it all boils down to once you have a trading
plan that is workable, just stay with it. It'll work out in the medium term.
Interviewer:
That was my other follow-up question. You mentioned the word "robust" when
you were talking about a trading plan. Could you talk a little bit more about that?
What does it mean to have a robust trading plan?
Guy:
For a robust trading plan, it's got to be one that takes care of the fact that you don't
let winners turn into losers, but you also get to ride a trend if a trend materializes
in your favor. It's also got to be a trading plan that cuts losses at an acceptable
point, where you've assessed the potential risk of a trade.
You have to let a trade have some breathing space. You can't just put on a trade
and if it doesn't go your way you're out. Otherwise, you've just been making
hundreds of trades where you lose a dollar here and a dollar there, and that's not
practical.
You have to basically have a trading plan that allows you to assess the risk of any
trade, the likelihood of it going wrong, and if it goes wrong the fact that you can
absorb that. You always have a trading plan where if it does go wrong, it's not
because you put in a bad trade or put in a trading plan that was flawed. It was
obviously trading is not a 100% game, so you have to make sure that your losses
are going to be smaller than your potential winners are. Hopefully over a period
of time you'll get a good shot of winning more than you lose.
Interviewer:
Guy:
It's a number of things, really. It's never just one, because the reason they fail, the
principle reason they fail, actually has contributor reasons. It's like a river. It
doesn't exist on its own. A river has tributaries.
Streams lead into rivers, this is the thing. You could look at greed, you could look
at fear, you could look at indiscipline. Greed leads to indiscipline, doesn't it?
Greed might be another way of them actually having a deeper seated reason to
wanting to lose money. There's a number of reasons, and we could just pick out
one for the sake of being dramatic, but it's complex. Ultimately it comes down to
being undisciplined for whatever emotional reasons.
That indiscipline can also be as a result of actually just not being prepared. Not
actually doing their homework, not actually getting the right training. That's
another reason. Not having an advantage.
Interviewer:
Speaking of not having the education, what made you decide to become an
educator or a mentor?
Guy:
It wasn't a decision, it just sort of happened, to be fair. I was creating software, for
me, and other people saw it and wanted it. Therefore it just happened by accident.
It wasn't something I intended to do. I built the software for me, but it became a
worthwhile endeavor to allow other people to use it and test it and give their
feedback on it. I guess it just happened, it wasn't something that I planned.
Interviewer:
It was just a natural evolution from what you created to then have other people
use it. You needed to teach them how to use it.
That's right. Other people saw me succeed and wanted to use it, and I saw no
reason why they shouldn't. Then what really happened is that they give their
feedback, and really their feedback led to it being improved.
Guy:
Actually, their feedback led to me creating the OVI in the first place. Weirdly
enough.
Interviewer:
Symbiotic relationship?
Guy:
Yes, it's very symbiotic, because it led to the creation of a very unique and very
state-of-the-art tool that no one else in the world has, and it's a phenomenal tool.
That came as a result of one of my students just saying, "How is it that you're able
to read the markets so well?"
I told them that when I looked at options chains, I remembered what was going on
the day before and the day before and the day before. In my head, there was a line
that was bumping up and down. Then as the words came out I thought, well,
maybe that line would be a good thing to actually have. Let's figure out how to
make a line.
We created that line. That line came from a thought, which was an answer to a
question, and then became a reality. That's been unbelievably valuable. Its been a
really good thing, that.
Interviewer:
This is perfect timing, because now my next question is let's talk about the
proprietary systems that you've developed.
Guy:
I think the one that everyone's talking about now is the OVI, which is a
proprietary indicator that condenses any option chain for a particular stock into a
line that goes up and down. There is nothing else out there that does anything like
that.
The line has to be interpreted, which is very simple, the way we do it. What we
do is we put that line underneath a stock chart. With a stock chart
we're only looking for a couple of patterns, approaches of support and resistance,
bull flags and bear flags. Consolidations.
We're looking for a situation where we're going to break out of either a sideways
pattern or a trend, and we're looking for the OVI to be corroborating that. For
example, when the OVI is in positive territory, between zero and plus one, we
know that the options market for that stock seems to be more bullish than bearish.
That's happening, and we've got approach of resistance coming, either in the form
of a flag or the break-out of a new high, then we can be quite confident in various
Guy:
Yes, it's three steps. The first step is the pattern, the second step is our indicator,
and the third step is our trading plan.
Interviewer:
Also the way that you take the profits and the way you let it ride at
the end?
Guy:
Interviewer:
Guy:
The three parts are the chart pattern, the indicator, and the trading plan. The
trading plan itself is, I guess you could split that into a couple of parts as well. It's
the entry, it's the start, and it's taking the profits and then it's the final exit. Three
and a half parts.
Interviewer:
What are your favorite tools to use and favorite resources? In addition to the ones
that you use, what sort of resources do you consult if any?
Guy:
Very little. Obviously I look at prices and I'm just aware of what's going on in
terms of when earnings are coming for a particular stock. We tend not to want to
trade this way when earnings are coming up.
That's pretty much it. We try to avoid all the noise. The noise is a distraction, so
we try to stay very focused.
Interviewer:
What is one piece of advice would you give to a novice trader just starting out?
Guy:
Learn. Spend your time learning, first. I never give one piece of advice, there's a
collection of advice. Invest the time to learn.
Interviewer:
Guy:
Interviewer:
Guy:
It'd be exactly the same. For an experienced trader, if it's not working, then you
need to change your plan. That'd be the same thing. Make sure you know what
you're doing. You want to gamble, go to the casino.
Interviewer:
What's in your future? What are you looking to do next? What's on the horizon for
you?
Guy:
I think that we've got the software now to a really good state. We're getting it so
we can put it onto iPads and so we can do it that way; look at our charts on iPads.
Interviewer:
Guy:
You can always do it on a laptop but it's not the same. Doing it on your little
iPhone or iPad is really good, because you can be literally anywhere and you can
flick through the charts. That's a really good thing that we're doing.
Interviewer:
Guy:
Yes, that is. Further simplification of our websites as well. We'll keep on making
things as simple as we can. It's an exciting time, because I think the software is
where it needs to be. We have an awful lot of people doing really well with it, and
that's the biggest endorsement, if you like, of what we do.
Interviewer:
What's the greatest feedback you've gotten, or what's some of the great feedback
you've heard?
Guy:
Theres a load. From one end of the spectrum you've got one guy who turned
$10,000 into $140,000 in two years with our stuff. At the other end of the
spectrum, we had people with literally hundreds of pounds who put them into
thousands of pounds, or hundreds of dollars into thousands.
You've had someone going from $10,000 to over $140,000, and then you've had
someone going from literally a few hundred into a few thousand. Again, that's in
less than a year. Those kinds of results are very heartwarming.
Interviewer:
Guy:
No, because we get quite a lot of that now, we get quite a few. Often it depends
on where they are in the world. Obviously different countries will allow different
leverage, but yes, we've got those stories now in the United States, in Europe,
Australia. In every territory where in trading different things, whether it's equities,
whether it's stocks themselves or options, or CFDs or spread bets, we've got big
successes in each of those silos. It's very nice.
What's your background and how did you get started trading?
Gareth:
Interviewer:
You trade equities and options. Tell me a little about what's unique to each market
and why you like trading them.
Gareth:
Sure. Obviously the real attraction to the equity market is the liquidity and the
broad basket of stocks that really can be tailored to any individual preferences. If
you tend to prefer high volatility or low volatility stocks, there's something there
for you. You can choose an industry based on whatever your career profession is,
so if you know an area you can be very confident in.
In terms of the options world, it's much more attractive in many respects than the
equity world, because the leverage is much greater. You can take advantage of
similar stock movement and make a much greater return on risk capital in a much
shorter time frame because of the leverage associated with options.
The other huge benefit of options is that in options, you can take advantage of
item decay. As stocks don't move, you can still be profiting from that. As in with
an option that you sell, simply by the process of selling it, even if the stock goes
nowhere, the option will decay in value and you'll end up profiting.
With a stock, you really only end up making money if the stock goes up.
Unless you short it, in which case you make money if it goes down. If it goes
sideways, you don't make anything. With an option, you can capitalize heavily if
it goes up. You can leverage your capital. In so doing, you can also protect
yourself if stocks go down. You can buy the insurance, even after the fire has
started so to speak.
The analogy there is if your house starts to go up on fire, you can't buy insurance
then. If a stock starts to plunge downward, you can still purchase insurance to
protect it in the options market.
Finally, if a stock simply channels between a range, you can employ some
advanced strategy to capitalize on the relative stagnation of the stock.
Interviewer:
Gareth:
I consider myself a positive expectancy trader. While most traders will try and
box themselves in as either a swing trader or a short term, a day trader, or any
number of other characteristics, whether it be a fundamental, a technical, an
economic, a macro trader, I like to think of the market more in terms of risk and
reward. I'm an open opportunist to any approach that is successful, whether that is
a fundamental, technical, sentiment, economic, macro, or an approach that
incorporates all of those, which tends to be my preference.
Regardless of the instrument used, whether it be a stock or an option, I look
towards both reward and risk in managing my portfolio so that it's a positive
expectancy portfolio.
Interviewer:
This may be redundant, but what's distinctive about how you trade and what
makes you successful at it? That's probably part and parcel of the question you
just answered.
Gareth:
Interviewer:
Right and it never does. Every trader I've interviewed says the same thing, it just
doesn't.
Gareth:
Interviewer:
Right and people continue to hope that it's going to come back and they're going
to recoup their loss, and they just don't.
Gareth:
That's right.
Interviewer:
Gareth:
It's until the point of capitulation comes. When capitulation comes is when the
traders ultimately panic and sell, and ironically that's the point at which they
should be looking to get in and buy. That relates to the psychology of the market,
and ultimately it traces back to, there are Nobel Prizes given on the psychology of
this.
It dictates our preferences. What we tend to like to do as humans is we like taking
short-term gains. We don't like taking big losses. Excuse me, we like taking shortterm gains. We also do not like taking multiple losses. If there is a loss to be had,
we would almost prefer to take a big loss.
That's what you tend to see with a lot of traders, that they look to take little gains.
They won't hold on for a big gain, but they will hold for a big loss.
Interviewer:
Isn't that ironic? That's completely the opposite of what they should be doing.
Gareth:
Well, it is the opposite, but if you were to think of an analogy whereby for
example, I'll give you two examples. One, you have a partner who is bringing you
flowers every day. Which makes you feel better? Do you enjoy coming home for
30 days in a row receiving flowers every single day? Does that feel better than
coming home on one particular day and getting the same number of flowers all at
once?
When the enjoyment is spread over time, you tend to feel better. In the stock
market it's the same. People like to take gains all the time that makes them feel
better.
Similarly, if you're looking at losses, for example if you're looking to potentially
pay a bill. If you see that bill hit your statement every single month, it tends to be
painful every single month. Whereas if you have to pay it all at once, you
probably forget about it for the next 11 months.
Interviewer:
Gareth:
Yeah, absolutely. I don't think it would be fair to say anything other than that in
trading. There are always going to be curveballs from both sides hitting you.
Whether that be news media, whether it be a fundamental event hitting a stock, or
whether it be a macro or a global event. All of that ties into very smart
management of a portfolio.
The best way to manage a shock or a surprise in a portfolio is to
anticipate what I call unknowns. It's not foreseeable, it's not something
you can anticipate any given day. In fact if you were to look statistically
at an event like that, it would be very much the tail risk of the curve.
At the same time, these things tend to happen very frequently. It's much
like saying big storms don't occur only maybe once every hundred years on the
East Coast of the United States, and yet over the last couple of years we've had
two storms that could be counted as one in 100 year storms.
These things tend to often happen more frequently than we anticipate, and
as traders we have to account for the fact that statistics won't necessarily play out
in reality, and that the reality is shocking events or surprising events can happen
more frequently than anticipated.
Interviewer:
Did you anticipate the storm? What did you do to protect yourself or your
portfolio?
Gareth:
The storm actually hasn't had a huge impact on the markets. There
are two schools of thought when it comes to storms like this. One is that
they create tremendous economic damage, to the tune, some people thought $20,
$30, $40, $50 billion of damage and economic loss.
Another school of thought is to say that because of all of the damage that
has been created over a short period of time, in the span of three, four,
five, six, seven days, or fewer in the case of the storm actually covering
an area, that it also creates employment for many, many months. Six, 12
months or longer in those areas. That acts as a stimulus to the economy.
When we see that the market sometimes doesn't react negatively to events
like this, it's because often the second philosophy is weighing more
heavily than the first.
Interviewer:
Let's talk a little bit about volatility. What do you like about trading volatility?
Gareth:
What's tricky about trading volatility, and how do you specifically use it to profit?
Gareth:
The challenge about trading volatility is that if you are a conservative investor,
and you employ higher risk strategies, then you'll
very, very quickly find yourself getting whip-sawed in an environment where for
example you might have stop losses that are triggered too quickly.
If you're the type of trader who happens to be a high-risk or risk-seeking
investor, and it turns out that for example a stock moves much more
aggressively than you thought and you were selling premium, then again, the
movement of the stock can be such that the positions have much greater risk than
you might originally have factored in. You can again get whip-sawed out.
Ultimately in both cases it falls back to understanding what your risk
tolerance and reward preferences are and structuring your portfolio around those
two.
Interviewer:
Gareth:
For money management, the way I like to think about it is that the definition of
being 100% bullish or 100% bearish does not mean having 100% bullish positions
or 100% bearish positions. In my mind, if you're 100% bullish, your portfolio
should still be structured with at most an 80/20 bullish to bearish bias.
What that means is that even if a stock doesn't keep going up, or even if
the stock market fails to continue moving higher, and if for example an
event such as you mentioned earlier, a global event, a macro event, a
shock, a surprise, a hurricane, whatever might happen. If it is unexpected,
you've also got protection to the tune of at least 20% of your portfolio
protecting yourself.
Essentially what that does is it manages the volatility, it mitigates the risk to an
extent. Similarly, if you're looking to be bearish on the market, in my view an
appropriate weighting, no more than 80/20, is fair too.
If you've got a bearish outlook on the market and the market is 80%, let's
say you're 80% short, 20% long, then in my view that's a very heavily or
aggressively bearish position. If the market is not moving aggressively to
the downside or the upside, maybe a position that isn't quite as extreme as
80/20. Maybe 70/30 in both cases is more appropriate.
Interviewer:
Gareth: Sure. I would say the two key ingredients to success, which if violated lead to losses,
are patience and discipline. A good example of my failure on that part recently
was I was asked if I would purchase Facebook. In fact, it was somebody in the
Market Tamer community, they asked if they should purchase Facebook. My
answer was that when the smart investors are selling, then you shouldn't be
buying. My example of that was Blackstone Group back in 2007, where they went
public around $30. Five years later they were still down, their stock price had
dropped about 60, 70% about five years later.
It never really reached a higher level than it had on its IPO day, even if
only marginally so and for a very short period. For the most part, it was a
bad investment for the public, but a very smart investment by the insiders,
because they were selling at the top.
Similarly with Facebook, that was my expectation that the market was at a level
which would very much favor the insiders selling their stock, a very poor decision
for outsiders to purchase the stock. However, when the stock went public and hit
$45, I did not buy. When it hit $40, I did not buy. When it hit $35, I also didn't
buy.
It then hit $30, and then it bounced. It came back to $30, and my
expectation at that point was that it would find a bottom right around $30.
Without adhering to the rules of patience and discipline which would have
kept me safe by essentially waiting for the stock to bounce up again,
technically confirm that it was going to move higher, I looked to bottom
fish.
I bottom fished right around the $30 range, and one of the things I did at that point
was even though I bought the stock, I also bought options to insure myself in case
the stock suffered to a greater extent. I limited my risk, which ties into the
philosophy that you should never have a position that is on edge. You should
always have that 70/30, 80/20 edging.
Ultimately, what happened was the stock plummeted from $30 all the way into
the teens. While that on the face of it would seem like a very poor trade, as it
turned out, with the stock dropping all that way the put option made a lot of
money.
Using a technique that we invoke at Market Tamer called the wheel of
profit, it ultimately turned out to be a successful trade. It only turned
out to be successful by understanding how to manage risk. If I had simply
purchased the stock and done nothing else, it would have turned out to be a very
poor trade.
Interviewer:
Gareth:
Those strategies historically have been monster winners for me, in the
order of tens of thousands of dollars in the space of just a few hours as
the option time decay kicks in and they expire.
Interviewer:
Gareth:
The best lesson I've learned, and maybe the smartest lesson, is
that however confident you are in a position you should never take on too
much risk. Because the one moment in time where you get extremely confident is
the moment whereby the market will, in fact, punish you.
Essentially the lesson is to be humble with the market and recognize that
it is the collective output of literally billions of decisions coming from
millions of people, and that it's very unlikely that you are smarter than
all of those people. The market is smarter than you, and once you defer to
it and recognize that you should trade with it and not against it, as in
what you see in front of you or on the screen is what you should trade, not your
opinion, then you end up in a much better place.
Interviewer:
What do you think the number one reason is why traders fail?
Gareth:
I think the number one reason is that they fail to manage risk
appropriately. Most traders fail by risking too much on a small number of
positions. As a result the psychological damage of that impacts them to
such a great extent that they no longer can either tolerate the risk or
they don't have the capital left to actually continue trading.
Interviewer:
Gareth:
That's a great question. I came across an individual who, like me, had come from
Ireland when he was young. Just like me he'd left college, he came to the U.S. in
search of greater opportunities. He built his career over 40 years, he became very
successful. He had millions of dollars in retirement funds.
He ultimately retired right around 2000. He put all of his money into the market
and within a couple of years he was virtually penniless. It signified to me the
importance of timing in the market. However, had he, for example, retired in
2002 and enjoyed a big stock market run through 2007, he would have been even
more fabulously wealthy.
He might at that point have considered himself to be a very smart trader.
If he invested in 2000, which he did and lost it all, he might consider
himself a very poor trader. The answer is that luck can play a part in
these things. If you don't really know what you're doing, you can either
consider yourself very lucky or very smart, or you can consider yourself
very dumb.
The reality is that ignorance of how to trade properly, which involves
smart risk management, understanding how to hedge using options instruments,
how to generate cash flow every month, how to protect stocks
every month, is really the key aspect to succeeding in the market. Without
Now let's talk about the proprietary systems that you've developed.
Gareth:
Interviewer:
Gareth:
capitalizing on virtually any and every situation the stock market can throw at
you.
Interviewer:
Gareth:
I would say that for a novice investor, the most important thing is really to not
trade right away with real capital. It's to trade with virtual capital, and that ties in
with the learning comment, that as much as it's fun to dabble in the stock market,
if you don't have the requisite information that has demonstrated with proof in
your portfolio that you can succeed within the market, then it's not a smart
strategy to be investing real capital.
Interviewer:
What about for an experienced trader? What kind of advice would you
give them?
Gareth:
For an experienced trader, my suggestion is, if they've been trading a long period
of time but have not been successful, focus very carefully on risk management.
For an investor who is trading a long time and is successful, I would
suggest they do absolutely nothing but keep doing what they're doing,
because they're already successful.
Interviewer:
Gareth:
Interviewer:
Gareth:
I started out as an Air Force pilot. When I finished my tour in the Air Force, I was
a commercial airline pilot. Commercial pilots typically have 15 days off a month,
and on those days off, I looked into trading to start a second source of income.
The airline industry is notorious for being unstable and you could face layoffs or
bankruptcies or termination of your pension plan at any time.
I wanted a backup source of income, so I started reading books on trading and
going to live seminars. That was my hobby that I did when I was an airline pilot,
because I could do it part time. Then I went on a medical disability with the
airlines as it turns out, and I became a full-time trader at that point.
Interviewer:
You trade equities and options. Tell me a little bit about whats unique to each
market and why you like trading them.
Chuck:
Chuck:
No.
Interviewer:
Why?
Chuck:
Because with Forex and futures, I cant get that edge in picking out stocks of the
best companies using that fundamental analysis. I like to have that edge.
Right now were in a deflationary environment in the world economies and
everythings very slow growth in the U.S. and especially over in Europe. What we
do is we focus on companies that still have consistent growth rates despite the
current global environment. That gives us a real edge.
We pick stocks that are not dependent on the price of oil or commodities; theyre
not affected by the European debt crisis. Theyre able to grow their earnings, very
slow growing, 1% GDP U.S. economy and we just focus on the stocks. That gives
us a real edge.
Interviewer:
Chuck:
Im a trend follower.
Interviewer:
Chuck:
No, not really. My trades are intermediate to longer term, so we take a long-term
perspective. Normally it doesnt really play into our overall long-term objectives.
Daily events may cause a loss that day in the portfolios overall, but for the most
part we dont really pay any attention to the global events, we just simply follow
our strategies and its worked out pretty well for us.
Interviewer:
Chuck:
The main benefit, of course, of volatility is you have higher option premiums. Im
a big seller of option premiums, so the more volatility we have, the more
premiums I get to sell. Thats a big part of all our strategies.
Now, I have three volatility strategies and if you go back to the trade results page
theyre on the inner circle. I have three volatility portfolios. The first one is the put
option portfolio, thats the third one down. That has a $90,000 open trade profit,
average return of 55%.
Right below that is the buy right or covered call portfolio and then below that is
the option spread portfolio. Those are our three volatility strategies and theyve
been working really well. You can see the option spread portfolio has an average
return of 503%.
These three strategies, theyre spread strategies and theyve been doing really well
when theres market volatility because these can profit whether a stock goes up or
down. It gives you a real edge in volatile markets.
Interviewer:
Why dont you talk a little bit about how you approach the markets? I was reading
in your bio about being agnostic on a host of issues?
Chuck:
Yes. Rather than try to guess which way a market is going to go, Id rather just
use my indicators and go with the indicators. If you use a simple trend following
system thatll keep you out of trouble if a stock starts to decline. You get a
reversal in the trend, you just simply exit your position.
Interviewer:
Chuck:
Yes. For stocks, we will exit a stock position if the stock drops 10 to 15% below
our entry price. We give a little more leeway with options because theyre more
leveraged. Well simply exit an option position if it drops 25 to 35% below our
entry price.
We also will exit. If we have profitable positions, well exit those in increments.
Maybe a fourth or a third of the position at a time, well simply exit to lock in
profits.
Interviewer:
Chuck:
Its not really that important. My trend following system is very simple and basic.
That makes it easy to follow. If you maintain a discipline and use the money
management, then you can be successful.
Interviewer:
Chuck:
I guess my biggest trade was, I had a Google option spread, and I made about
$110,000 on that one trade.
Interviewer:
Chuck:
Biggest lesson I learned was not to try to predict the short-term price movement of
a market. Its better just to follow your trend following system rather than try to
predict the price trends.
Interviewer:
What do you think the number one reason traders fail is?
Chuck:
In my experience, the biggest factor is people will take trades that the risk is not
limited. Like short puts or go naked with options. They take a naked option
position or if theyre too heavily leveraged with futures or Forex. If youre
leveraged 20 to one on a futures contract, which is pretty typical, if the market
moves against you 5% or more youre wiped out.
If youre leveraged 100 to one with Forex or 200 to one, which is typically, it only
takes a 1% adverse move and youre wiped out. I think most people get into
trouble because they dont stick to limited risk trades. They risk more than the
capital that they have in their account, and if youre a put seller, your put selling
strategy could go along for six, eight, nine months, do really well, but it only takes
that one time when theres an overnight event to wipe out your account.
Ive seen that happen time and time again. In my advisory service and my own
personal trading, I limit everything to limited-risk trades and you cant lose more
than you invest.
Interviewer:
It says here that you won not one but seven live international trading
championships?
Chuck:
Yes.
Interviewer:
If you were such a successful trader, what made you become a mentor and an
educator?
Chuck:
Well, Ive made over $5 million trading, so I dont have to worry about money
anymore. Im happily retired with my six kids. I want to stay active in it and I still
enjoy trading and I still trade, but I like to be a mentor to give back to the
community some of the fortunes that Ive made.
I think I really made a difference in peoples lives, their financial lives, by giving
these live seminars and becoming a mentor with my advisory service.
Interviewer:
Chuck:
Thats the tools I use every day. Before I take an option trade, Ill run the trade
through the calculator and figure out what the profit/loss potential is for that trade
before I take the trade.
Interviewer:
What advice would you give to a novice trader starting out and an experienced
trader not having tremendous success?
Chuck:
The biggest advice I would give is dont over-leverage yourself, and limit your
trading to limited-risk trades. Thats I think the best advice I could give to a
novice or an experienced trader, because Ive seen it so many times when people
are over-leveraged and all of a sudden they panic, and they add their position
before they should be.
Or if theres a big adverse move then, of course, their account gets wiped out.
That would be my advice if youre an option trader.
Interviewer:
Chuck:
Conclusion
Thank you for your interest in Volatility Trading and the opportunity to present you with three
unique points of view on approaching the Equities and Options market.
If you would like more information, on Equities or Options, or any of the other financial
markets, kindly visit our website at www.wealthcreationinvesting.com.
If you have not yet downloaded your free bonuses from each of our three traders, you may
follow the links below.
1. Get 3 reports on stocks and options written by Millionaire Trader and 7-time International
Trading Champion Chuck Hughes. These 3 guides are the gold standard for building wealth in
which you will get all the proven secrets that have made him a millionaire many times over for
FREE. (A $49 Value.) You get:
The Beginners Practical Guide To Options Trading where you will see just how he
made $2,572,413.71 actual documented profits with 94.4% wins trading options.
Your Best Opportunity For Investment Success where you will get a solid, safe
investing program that has made him $4,569,797.98 in actual documented profits.
The Key To Profit In Tough Times where you will see how he made more than $1
million in 26 days when most other investors had their investments crushed.
http://www.tradewins.com/Images_Custom/Hughes_3Report.pdf
2.
http://wealthcreationinvesting.com/volatility-report/feighery-report.pdf
3.
http://download.guycohen.com/files/Introduction_To_The_OVI.pdf