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Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability of an event A occurring given that another event B has occurred. It is written as P(A|B) and refers to the probability of A under the condition that B is known to have occurred. An example is calculating the probability that one die shows a 3 given that the sum of the dice is 9. The sample space is reduced to only those outcomes where the sum is 9. The probability is then calculated as the number of outcomes where one die is 3 (2 outcomes) divided by the total number of outcomes where the sum is 9 (4 outcomes), which equals 1/2.

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749 views

Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability of an event A occurring given that another event B has occurred. It is written as P(A|B) and refers to the probability of A under the condition that B is known to have occurred. An example is calculating the probability that one die shows a 3 given that the sum of the dice is 9. The sample space is reduced to only those outcomes where the sum is 9. The probability is then calculated as the number of outcomes where one die is 3 (2 outcomes) divided by the total number of outcomes where the sum is 9 (4 outcomes), which equals 1/2.

Uploaded by

shailesh
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Q. 5 What is conditional probability? Explain with an example.

Ans. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY


Conditional probability is the probability of some event A, given the
occurrence of some other event B. Conditional probability is written P(A|B),
and is read "the (conditional) probability of A, given B" or "the probability of
A under the condition B". When in a random experiment the event B is
known to have occurred, the possible outcomes of the experiment are
reduced to B, and hence the probability of the occurrence of A is changed
from the unconditional probability into the conditional probability given B.
Two events A and B are said to be dependent when B can occur only
when A is known to have occurred or vice versa. The probabilities associated
with such event are called conditional probabilities.
The probabilities of the occurrence of the event A when the event B has
already occurred is called the conditional probability of occurrence of A given
that the event B has already occurrence and is denoted by P(A/B).

Example:- A pair of dice is rolled. If the sum of 9 has appeared, find the
probability that one of the dice shows 3.
Solution:- The equiprobable sample space consisting of 36 sample points.
The event A = The sum of the scores is 9 has four sample points (6,3), (5,4),
(4,5), (3,6), and its reduced sample space.
Under the assumption that A has happened, the event B = one of the dice
shows 3 has only two sample points, that is (B∩A) = [(3,6),(6,3)].
∴ P(B/A) = 2/4 = 1/2
Also using the formula derived above, we get P(B/A) = P(A∩B)P(A)
∴PA∩B= n(A∩B)n(S)=236, and PA= n(A)n(S)= 436
=2/364/36=24= 1/2

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