An Analysis of Decline of HMT watches

Using Business Statistics

Group Members (Section B)

Roll Number Email-id
Dhruv Mathur 10DM-044 dhruvmathur67@yahoo.com
Harshni 10DM-061 harshni1108@gmail.com
Ashutosh Agarwal 10HR-010 ashutosh.agarwal@gmail.com
Debanjan Das 10FN-127 debanjan_debu2005@yahoo.com
Ashish Wadhwa 10FN-124
wadhwa1_ashish@yahoo.co.in

1
 SUMMARY
HMT as a brand is popular among the masses as a premium watch making company. It is the
First major watch manufacturer in India and undisputed market leader till the entry of Titan
in 1987. But gradually it started losing the market share and the company has been running in
losses for the last 10 years.

The topic seemed interesting to us because we came across an article :

HMT likely to get revival package by beginning of FY'11(4 Feb 2010 Economic times).

We decided to use statistics to help HMT take a better business decision so that they can
recover from losses. In this project, our main motive is

• To analyse the Decline of HMT watches

• To analyse the success story of Titan and take lessons from them
• To suggest HMT some investment strategy so that they can recover their lost market
share

The statistical tool that we intend to use in this project is primarily Regression Analysis.

We intend to find out the sales figures, the balance sheets of the 2 rival companies, Titan and
HMT and then analyse the investment strategies of the 2 companies. In the coming pages an
attempt has been made to present a comprehensive report in which statistical tool has been
used to take managerial business decisions.

2
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We would like to express our gratitude towards to Ms. Gunjan Malhotra who helped us a lot
in completion of our study.

She was there to support us whenever we needed help at every point of our study. It is
because of her kind assistance that we were able to complete this project successfully.

Dhruv Mathur

Harshni

Ashutosh Agarwal

Debanjan Das

Ashish Wadhwa

3
 CONTENT
Page

INTRODUCTION 5

LITERARY REVIEW 7

OBJECTIVES 10

HYPOTHESIS 11

METHOLOGY AND TOOLS 12

DATA ANALYSIS 13

PLOICY IMPLICATIONS 20

RECOMMENDATION 20

REFERENCES 21

4
 INTRODUCTION
Hindustan Machine Tools is a public sector undertaking of the Government of India. In 1953,
the latter incorporated the machine tool manufacturing company by the name of Hindustan
Machine Tools Limited.
HMT as a brand is popular among the masses as a premium watch making company.
However, since its very inception, HMT Limited is into a lot of other things as well. Over the
years HMT, (as Hindustan Machine Tools is popularly known) has diversified into watches,
tractors , printing machinery, metal forming presses, die casting & plastic processing
machinery, CNC systems and bearings.
HMT has also been successful in absorbing technology in all product groups by collaborating
with recognized manufacturers from all over the world.
Today, HMT has six subsidiary companies under its supervision namely:
• HMT Machine Tools Limited
• HMT Watches Limited
• HMT Chinar Watches Limited
• HMT International Limited
• HMT Bearings Limited

We are going to concentrate on HMT Watches Limited. In 1961, HMT set up India’s first
watch factory at Bangalore in collaboration with Citizen of Japan. HMT is the First major
watch manufacturer in India and undisputed market leader till the entry of Titan. Its Main
quality offered sturdiness and reliability. HMT Limited, the first company to start watch
manufacturing in India; has incorporated "HMT WATCHES LIMITED" as its fully owned
subsidiary on 9th August 1999.
Now let’s concentrate on the turning points of this company and watch industry as a whole
• 1960: Indian Watch Industry came into being. Govt. took the decision to set up the
country’s first watch factory
• 1961: HMT set up India’s first watch factory at Bangalore in collaboration with
Citizen of Japan
• 1981: Hyderabad Allwyn Limited entered the watch industry in collaboration with
Seiko of Japan
• 1984: The beginning of a new era - entry of Titan, the Tata –TIDCO joint sector
company
• 1990: Timex enters the Indian market in partnership with Titan, targeting the lower
price segment
• 1997: Timex breaks away from Titan - increasing the already fierce competition.

5
Until the mid-1980s the industry was predominantly producing mechanical watches. Its prime
product category (mechanical watches) was in the decline stage of PLC. HMT didn’t embrace
new quartz technology to a great extent & suffered because of their adherence to mechanical
watches.
HMT was the undisputed market leader a few decades back. HMT had the overall market
share of 26% during 1997-98 and it dropped to 14% during 2001-02. Out of this, HMT still
had 70% market share of Mechanical watches during 1997-98, which increased to 94%
during 2001-02. Company performed poorly in Quartz market, it had market share of 8% for
five year during 1998-2002. This shows how the sale of mechanical watches dropped
drastically. The value curve for Mechanical watches kept falling and there was no driving
force from HMT to oppose this.
The installed capacity for manufacture at Bangalore and Ranibagh units was 15 lakh
and 20 lakh watches per annum respectively. The demand for mechanical watches in India
has been showing sharp decline in view of customers’ preference for technologically
improved and reasonably priced quartz watches. The demand came down to 12.59 lakh
watches in 1999-2000 out of which the Company’s share was 70 per cent. This further
declined to 1.30 lakh during 2003-04, almost wholly contributed by sale of HMT watches.
HMT remained into losses for last 10 years. We would be looking into the possible reasons
for the downfall.

6
 LITERARY REVIEW
We came across a lot of articles. A few of them has been given below.

• Source: Report No.4 of 2005 (PSUs) MINISTRY OF HEAVY INDUSTRY

AND PUBLIC ENTERPRISES CHAPTER XI HMT Limited
Mid-term Review on Turnaround Plan

We come to know how the demand came down to 12.59 lakh watches in 1999-2000.
This further declined to 1.30 lakh during 2003-04. So the demand for mechanical
watches indeed decreased.

• Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/23429195/Write-a-research-paper-on-managerial-
effectiveness-as-related-to-organisation-climate-and-leadership-and-effectiveness-in-
india

HMT did not pay much attention to R&D and design, aesthetics and design. While
its competitor titan kept innovating its products with latest technology, features and
design, HMT was still grappling with its basic design models. MT could have hired
some good designers to design new models of the watches. With customer looking for
new varieties of watches after 2000, this could have boosted their market share.

• Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/36060924/hmt

Lack of promotion and marketing strategy was another big mistake. HMT could
have emphasized on Mechanical watches only and could have provided a greater
competition to Titan by selling over the strength of Mechanical watches. Some of
them could have been as follows:

a. Quartz watches are as reliable as mechanical, but you cannot predict the life of the
battery.
b. The parts to replace are easily available for mechanical watches, but for age-old
quartz watches, the battery would have been obsolete.
c. Mechanical watches last longer (provided serviced on time), while quartz watches
have lesser life because of the limited life-span of the electronic circuitry. Mechanical
watches have good resale value.

So, HMT could have made it a point that, if you want quality, class, precision and
historical value, go for Mechanical watches.

• Source: http://www.indianjournals.com/glogift2k6/glogift2k6-1-1/theme_4/Article
%207.htm

GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS OF PUBLIC SECTOR ENTERPRISES OF INDIA

7
 The globalization of the economy brought the best technologies to India. The new technology
inputs brought along with it substitutes of the various products presently being used. HMT
Watches now faces intense competition from the low cost digital watches from China and
Hong Kong.

• Source: http://www.lbhat.com/brands/when-brands-become-obsolete/
Changing consumer or changing categories?

The trick is in figuring out changing consumer trends and preferences and rejuvenate
the brand accordingly. Brand’s become obsolete due to a combination of various
factors. A brand can be defined as a set of images & perceptions that a consumer has.
If those perceptions are not in keeping with the changing consumer, the brand could
be obsolete. HMT watches comes to mind as an example. It appears that HMT failed
to convert its perceived weakness of a mechanical watch into a strength. It also failed
to keep pace with the changing consumer trends by not projecting a modern, attractive
imagery through product innovation, advertising, merchandising etc.
Some brands are closely associated with a category. But due to technolgical changes
the categories disappear and with it, the brand.
• Source: http://www.questionhub.com/YahooAnswers/20090611131736AA65xhK
We find a comprehensive SWOT analysis for HMT watches. This actually helped us
to find out the independent and dependent variables during regression.
• Source: http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2315/stories/20060811003511700.htm

Not spending on advertisement puts a big question mark on the awareness level of
the customers about HMT watches caused by lack of advertisement. This analysis
becomes more critical, when compared with expenditure made by its competitor
Titan. While titan engaged major celebrities like Amir Khan, Kapil Dev etc. for its
advertisement, HMT advertisements went almost missing from print & electronic
media. Underestimating the power of advertisement was one of the key factors for
HMT to lose its market share. Also, HMT could have done some research on various
new ways of advertisement.

• Source: TOI Kolkata. 15th june 2010

Innovation was one important missing factor from HMT’s culture and strategy all
through years. It could have innovated various ways of advertisement (celebrities,
discounts, sponsoring events etc.), marketing (renovating stores, making distribution
channel more efficient etc.), getting customer feedback, adopt the changing market
conditions etc. Attracting the young generation through media was completely
missing. HMT could have collaborated with some of the good retailers of different
brands (with big distribution network and good retails showrooms) to display and sell
some newly launched models.

• Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/HMT-likely-
to-get-revival-package-by-beginning-of-FY11/articleshow/5536141.cms

8
 HMT likely to get revival package by beginning of FY'11 (The Economic Times,
4 Feb, 2010)
○ Public sector enterprise HMT Watches is likely to receive a revival package
from the government by the beginning of the next financial year for plant up
gradation and revamping marketing strategy.
"We have already submitted a revival plan to the government and we expect to
get the package by the beginning of FY'11. We then plan to strongly focus on
marketing and brand-building of our watches," HMT Watches Managing
Director S Paulraj told PTI here without divulging further details.
○ "We want to strengthen our brand in the rural market, where bigger brands
such as Titan are not present (in a big way). We see a huge potential in the
smaller cities. HMT still has a good image and we want to leverage this,"
Paulraj said.

HMT will invest on brand-building this year, including in advertising, he said.

• Source: http://www.hindustantimes.com/HMT-expects-25-pc-growth/Article1-
481466.aspx

HMT expects 25 pc growth (The HT Times, November 30, 2009)

○ During 2009, the company has brought out 54 watch models for both men and
women priced most affordably at Rs.325 to Rs.345 oriented towards rural
market. In line with the current trend, HMT has introduced environment
friendly models of high precision automatic day and date watches in the price
range of Rs 3,000 to Rs 3,500.
○ HMT expects 25% growth next year (interview with S. Paulraj, Managing
Director, HMT Watches Ltd.)

• Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/6153244/Hmt-Watch-Company-Renewl-Plan-
Document

HMT watches a household name in the yester years have come to a stage where no one is
even aware of the brand name itself barring few of our elders. What actually happened? What
made HMT lose its sheen? HMT is known for high quality and reliability. But somewhere
along the line HMT has forgotten to tighten its bolts. Some of the key issues regarding HMT
have been discussed.

OBJECTIVES
• To analyse the Decline of HMT watches

9
 • To suggest HMT some investment strategy so that they can recover their lost market
share
• To check the trend of various performance parameters like Sales, Operating Profit,
Market Share and Average Selling Price with time. For this the data has been
collected for each parameter and compiled into a time series format. Then on
regression is done with the particular parameter being the dependent variable and a
time unit being thee independent variable. The general trend is checked without
considering the accuracy of the regression plot.
• Analysis of the most important parameter of a company, i.e., the Sales. This is done
through regression. The sales variable is taken as the dependent variable and the
regressed against various independent variables like R&D expenses, Selling &
Marketing Expenses. Also the sales by volume are also checked.

HYPOTHESIS
Since the complete project is done using the regression tool, it involves a lot of use of the
concept of hypothesis testing. NULL & ALTERNATE hypothesis used in the analysis is
listed below:

10
Regression of Sales with R&D Expenses, compensation to employees, advertising and
marketing expense:
NULL HYPOTHESIS: The coefficient of R&D Expenses, compensation to employees,
advertising and marketing expense variable is zero. Hence Sales do not depend upon R&D
Expenses, compensation to employees, advertising and marketing expense.
ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS: The coefficient of R&D Expenses, compensation to
employees, advertising and marketing expense variable is not zero. Hence sales depend upon
these factors.

METHOLOGY AND TOOLS

The methodology used by us in this project is to apply regression to the various performance
indicating parameters like sales, profit, market share and average selling price with respect to
independent variables like time, expenses, etc. The regression equation and the line fit plot
are obtained using the MS-EXCEL Regression tool. The regression equation so obtained is

11
analysed to check for the effect of the independent variables on the performance parameters
chosen by us. Both simple and multiple regressions have been applied to the data.

The tool used by us for analysing the performance is the Regression Tool of MS-
EXCEL and SPSS. Regression is a process which is very widely used to test statistical data.
Regression is used to estimate an equation which will give the value of a dependent variable
in terms of some independent variables. The first step in the regression process is to form a
model, i.e, to assume an equation. Thus the dependent variable is assumed to be some linear
combination of the independent variables being tested. The second step is to collect data
(mostly in time series form) of the dependent variable and independent variables. After ample
data has been collected, a best fit line is obtained. The equation of this best fit line would be
our regression equation.

After the regression equation is obtained we need to apply certain statistical tests to it in order
to check its validity or rather the extent of its validity. These tests include the Coefficient of
determination test, t-value tests and F-statistic test. If our regression analysis consists of only
a single independent, then critical t value test is used. In this case we use the concept of Null
hypothesis. The null hypothesis basically states that the value of the coefficient of obtained
for the independent variable equals zero. A t value is obtained and if that t value is greater
than the critical t value obtained from the t table, and then we reject the null hypothesis and
claim that the coefficient is not zero and hence the particular independent variable is
statistically significant. Another test is the coefficient of determination test. It tells us how
much of the variation in the dependent variable is actually explained or due to the variation in
the independent variable. This is calculated in percentage terms. The higher this percentage,
the better and more accurate is our regression line.

If our regression equation contains more than one independent variables then, we use the F-
Statistic test. F-statistic first states the null hypothesis that the coefficients of all independents
are zero and then attempts to reject this null hypothesis. The procedure of checking is exact
same as the t-value test.

Source of Data: CMIE database and internet searches.

The analysis of some parameters has been done yearly and for other parameters its been done
quarter wise based on the availability of relevant data.

DATA ANALYSIS
➢ Product manufactured with respect to time

HMT Product/s manufactured/traded

Watches Ltd. In thousands

2004-2005 419.55

2005-2006 359.06

12
 2006-2007 450.78

2007-2008 205.01

2008-2009 200.12

Analysis: This regression equation is not very significant. It’s been used just to show the
general trend of yearly sales with time over the period 2004-2009. The trend can be clearly
seen to be negative. The yearly sales have increased with time as is shown by the positive
coefficient of t. The graph below clearly reflects this fact:

Market share of HMT and its competitors

Market Shares (in %)

Year Production (in 000 nos) Market Size (in Rs crore) Titan Watches HMT Watches Timex Others

1992 29 55
1993 29401.6 516.3 37 47 3 13

1994 30648.4 465.5 49 30 5 16

1995 20918.6 587.4 45 22 12 21

1996 24726 766 41 23 13 23

1997 36480.7 797.3 45 21 10 24

1998 36717.5 746.3 48 22 10 20

2010 101367.4 2250.2 65 Negligible 21

Graphical Representation

13
Comparison between HMT and TITAN

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Indicator Units Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Watches & clocks

(incl.parts) sales:
Titan Industries Rs.crore 460.95 423.51 417.53 488.08 521.28 598.79 695.14 780.07

Watches & clocks

(incl.parts) sales:
H M T Watches Rs.crore 104.12 69.53 36.05 18.51 18.71 17.69 34.15 13.5

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Indicator Units Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

14
 Watches & clocks
(incl.parts) market
shares: Titan
Industries Per cent 42.93 50.7 49.87 54.56 57.05 55.45 51.73 51.77
Watches & clocks
(incl.parts) market
shares: H M T
Watches Per cent 9.7 8.32 4.31 2.07 2.05 1.64 2.54 0.9
Graphical Representation

Expenditure and sales of HMT

Profit/Lo Total Adverti Marketin Compen R&D

ss(Rs. Cr) Sales(Rs. sing g sation to Expens
PAT Cr) Expend expense( employee es(Rs.
H M T Watches iture(Rs Rs. Cr) s(Rs. Cr) Cr)
Ltd. . Cr)

-59.18 104.1 79.93 5.67

2 4.59 12.59
March 2001
March 2002 -106.29 69.53 2.39 18.01 72.97 3.67

-112.92 36.05 0.99 9.16 74.78 1.34

March 2003
March 2004 -134.81 18.51 0.25 5.92 59.14 0.25

-134.53 18.71 0.27 2.19 59.44 0.25

March 2005

15
March 2006 -96.31 17.69 0.09 1.32 74.15 0.26

-195.81 34.15 0.25 2.07 140.85 0.36

March 2007
March 2008 -146.95 13.5 0.11 0.49 53.87 0.39

March 2009 -164.05 11 0.18 1.5 51.69 0.45

ANALYSIS WITH SPSS AND EXCEL SHEET

At first, we analysed the data using all the 4 variables: -- Advertising Expenditure, Marketing
expense, Compensation to employees, R&D Expenses. But came to the conclusion that R&D
expenditure is insignificant and there were problems of multi collinearity as well. To get rid
of this problem, we drop this variable. We have done multiple regression and the results have
been interpreted below. Please refer to the excel sheet and SPSS file attached in the mail.

INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS
At first, we analysed the data using all the 4 variables. But came to the conclusion that R&D
expenditure is insignificant and there were problems of multi collinearity as well. To get rid
of this problem, we drop this variable.

The regression equation for sales of HMT after dropping R&D variable is

Sales = -1.919 + .697 Marketing expenses+17.49 Advertising expenses+ .216 Compensation

to employees

Interpretation: In absence of marketing, advertisement and compensation, the sales of HMT

watches is statistically insignificant and null. The negative value indicates that there will be
no sales.

1 unit increase in marketing expense will increase .697 units of sales.

16
1 unit increase in advertisement expense will increase sales by 17.69 units.

1 unit increase in compensation will increase sales by .216 units.

R square = .998 and Adjusted R square = .996

The independent variables explain more than 99% variation in sales.

Standard error = 1.896. The value is very low.

DW statistics= 2.217 (between 1.75 and 2.25, there is no problem of auto correlation)

F-Statistics analysis

Significance F = .000. F value is significant.

F-statistic calculated value = 725.098

As F-calculated> F-critical value, we reject the null hypothesis at the 5 % level of

significance that there is no statistical significance between the independent and dependent
variables.
ANALYSIS OF T VALUE OF INDIVIDUAL PARAMETERS

Marketing expenses: t-value 3.932>critical value and P-value is .011 < .05

Sales are significantly affected by marketing expense.

Advertising expenses: t-value 24.596>critical value and P-value is .000 < .05

Sales are significantly affected by advertising expense.

Compensation to employees: t-value 8.645>critical value and P-value is .000 < .05

Sales are significantly affected by compensation to employees.

17
 PLOICY IMPLICATIONS
The Indian watch industry began in the year 1961 with the commissioning of the
watch division of HMT. The first watch model manufactured by HMT was the Janata
model in the year 1962. HMT was the leader in the watch market till the Tatas formed
Titan Watches in association with Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation in
the year 1987. They took a major strategy decision, which later changed the face of
the Indian watch market- to manufacture only quartz watches. Liberalization in 1992
and the removal of quantitative restrictions due to WTO has opened the doors for
many foreign brands in the Indian market viz. Tissot, Swatch, Omega, Rado, TAG
Heuer, Rolex and many others. The import duties on watches are falling which makes
the Indian market look attractive for the global majors like Casio, Swatch and Citizen.
This is one of the major reasons for the downfall of HMT.

RECOMMENDATION
HMT should invert much more on advertising, promotion, compensation.

A few more suggestion includes:-

• Marketing strategy:-HMT could have emphasized on Mechanical watches only and

could have provided a greater competition to Titan by selling over the strength of
Mechanical watches.

• It could have innovated various ways of advertisement (celebrities, discounts,

sponsoring events etc.), sales and promotion, marketing (renovating stores, making
distribution channel more efficient etc.), getting customer feedback, adopt the
changing market conditions etc.

• Faster production of new models of watches for catering to the changing needs of the
customer.

• Visibility:-HMT can sponsor fashion shows in which all latest designs launched are
displayed. This will increase the visibility.

• Majority of the population in India live in rural areas. So, showrooms should be set up
at places nearer to them.

18
 • Introduce cheaper and rough use watches for this segment.

• After sales service has to be improved. That is, the process of servicing and repairing
of watches should be made faster.

REFERENCES
Books and Journals:
Report No.4 of 2005 (PSUs). Mid-term Review on Turnaround Plan
MINISTRY OF HEAVY INDUSTRY AND PUBLIC ENTERPRISES

HMT Machine Tools Catalogue

Web Sites:

• www.hmtmachinetools.com/
• www.hmtindia.com/
• www.titan.co.in/
• www.titanworld.com

Newspaper articles:

HMT likely to get revival package by beginning of FY'11(4 Feb 2010 Economic times)

HMT expects 25 pc growth (November 30, 2009 Hindustan Times)

*List of all websites and references has been attached in a separate folder.

19