UNIVERSITY SINERGIJA FACULTY OF SECURITY AND PROTECTION BANJA LUKA

Seminar work in english

THEME: Global warming

Mentor:

Student:

Banja Luka, april 2010.

Contents:

1. 2.

Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 3 Global warming .................................................................................................................. 4 2.1. The Greenhouse Effect ................................................................................................ 5 Greenhouse gases ................................................................................................. 6 Carbon dioxide .............................................................................................. 7 Methane......................................................................................................... 8 Nitrous oxide (N2O) ..................................................................................... 9

2.1.1.

2.1.1.1. 2.1.1.2. 2.1.1.3. 2.2. 2.3. 2.4. 3. 4.

Climate models ............................................................................................................ 9 Attributed and expected effects ................................................................................. 11 Responses to global warming .................................................................................... 12

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 15 Literature .......................................................................................................................... 16

1. Introduction
Global warming is when the earth heats up (the temperature rises). It happens when greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, water vapor, nitrous oxide, and methane) trap heat and light from the sun in the earths atmosphere, which increases the temperature. This hurts many people, animals, and plants. Many cannot take the change, so they die. Global warming is affecting many parts of the world. It makes the sea rise, and when the sea rises, the water covers many low land islands. This is a big problem for many of the plants, animals, and people on islands. The water covers the plants and causes some of them to die. When they die, the animals lose a source of food, along with their habitat. Although animals have a better ability to adapt to what happens than plants do, they may die also. When the plants and animals die, people lose two sources of food, plant food and animal food. They may also lose their homes. As a result, they would also have to leave the area or die. This would be called a break in the food chain, or a chain reaction, one thing happening that leads to another and so on.

2. Global warming
Global warming refers to an increase in the Earths average surface air temperature. Global warming and cooling in themselves are not necessarily bad, since the Earth has gone through cycles of temperature change many times in its 4.5 billion years. However, as used today, global warming usually means a fast, unnatural increase that is enough to cause the expected climate conditions to change rapidly and often cataclysmically. Our planet is warmed by radiant energy from the sun that reaches the surface through the atmosphere. As the surface warms, heat energy reects back toward space; meanwhile, gases in the atmosphere absorb some of this energy and reradiate it near the surface. This is often called the greenhouse effect, named for the way heat increases inside a glass enclosure. In the greenhouse effect around Earth, the atmosphere can be visualized as a blanket that is made thicker by the action of a small amount of water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, other gases, and soot; it thus holds in more heat, forcing air temperature higher. The scientic term for this action is, in fact, forcing. On an average day, this effect is caused by water vapor and clouds (75 percent) and carbon dioxide (20 percent), with the rest fthe heating caused by other gases. Relatively small additions of carbon dioxide and methane force more heat, and that heat allows the air to hold more water vapor, creating a feedback loop that magnies the effect. Although water vapor is naturally prevalent in the atmosphere, it does not trap as much heat per molecule as carbon dioxide and methane. Also, water vapor molecules cycle through the atmosphere in only a few days, a brief period compared to the residence time of CO2, which persists for many decades and creates some warming even after as long as three hundred years. Dust and aerosol chemicals in the air cause some cooling (negative forcing); they are also very short lived. Even though the gases are measured only in parts per million (ppm) or billion (ppb), they have been powerfully, and naturally, inuencing the Earths temperature for millions of years. Without them, instead of an average air temperature of about 58F (14.5C), the Earth would be below the freezing point. Life as we know it now would be impossible. Earths temperature is also subject to natural forcing cycles from solar radiation and the movement of the planet around the sun. Scientists think these cycles, which have left a visible signature extending back millions of years, are what led to past ice ages and the warming that ended them. Currently, we are in a period between major ice ages. The last great glaciation, when temperatures were about 10to 12F (6to7C) cooler than today, began fading away about 4

18,000 yearsago. The initial transition out of the ice age was unstable,with many rapid temperature shifts. As temperatures warmed, climate was affected. During most of the more recent past (say, 10 000-11 000 years), the concentration of greenhouse gases remained relatively stable, and so did the Earths temperature and climate. This was the time when humans developed civilizations and learned how to build cities, grow food, and invent machines. It is possible that early farming and forest clearing had a warming effect on the Earth beginning ve thousand to eight thousand years ago. There are also a few examples of natural temperature shifts, such as the Medieval Warm Period, which was followed by the Little Ice Age in the fteenth through eighteenth centuries. These were possibly not global in extent, and there is scientic disagreement over their causes which seem to have included periods of solar radiation increase and decrease and volcanic eruptions.

2.1.

The Greenhouse Effect

The greenhouse effect is the rise in temperature that the Earth experiences because certain gases in the atmosphere (water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane, for example) trap energy from the sun. Without these gases, heat would escape back into space and Earths average temperature would be about 60F colder. Because of how they warm our world, these gases are referred to as greenhouse gases.

The greenhouse effect is important. Without the greenhouse effect, the Earth would not be warm enough for humans to live. But if the greenhouse effect becomes stronger, it could make the Earth warmer than usual. Even a little extra warming may cause problems for humans, plants, and animals. The "greenhouse effect" is named by analogy to greenhouses but this is a misnomer. The greenhouse effect and a real greenhouse are similar in that they both limit the rate of thermal energy flowing out of the system, but the mechanisms by which heat is retained are different. A greenhouse works primarily by preventing absorbed heat from leaving the structure through convection, i.e. sensible heat transport. The greenhouse effect heats the earth because greenhouse gases absorb outgoing radiative energy and re-emit some of it back towards earth. A greenhouse is built of any material that passes sunlight, usually glass, or plastic. It mainly heats up because the sun warms the ground inside, which then warms the air in the greenhouse. The air continues to heat because it is confined within the greenhouse, unlike the environment outside the greenhouse where warm air near the surface rises and mixes with cooler air aloft. This can be demonstrated by opening a small window near the roof of a greenhouse: the temperature will drop considerably. It has also been demonstrated experimentally (R. W. Wood, 1909) that a "greenhouse" with a cover of rock salt (which is transparent to infra red) heats up an enclosure similarly to one with a glass cover. Thus greenhouses work primarily by preventing convective cooling. In the greenhouse effect, rather than retaining (sensible) heat by physically preventing movement of the air, greenhouse gases act to warm the Earth by re-radiating some of the energy back towards the surface. This process exists in real greenhouses, but is comparatively unimportant there. 2.1.1. Greenhouse gases Greenhouse gases are chemical compounds that contribute to the greenhouse effect. When in the atmosphere a greenhouse gas allow sunlight (solar radiation) to enter the atmosphere where it warms the Earths surface and is reradiated back into the atmosphere as longer-wave energy (heat). Greenhouse gases absorb this heat and trap it in the lower atmosphere.

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of the three main human-made greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide is clear from the data sets for these gases over the last 420,000 years. Since around the time of the Industrial Revolution in Western countries, concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have all risen dramatically. Fossil fuel combustion, increasingly intensive agriculture, and an expanding global human population have been the primary causes for these rapid changes.

2.1.1.1.

Carbon dioxide (chemical formula CO2) is a chemical compound composed of

two oxygen atoms covalently bonded to a single carbon atom. It is a gas at standard temperature and pressure and exists in Earth's atmosphere in this state. CO2 is a trace gas being only 0.038% of the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is used by plants during photosynthesis to make sugars, which may either be consumed in respiration or used as the raw material to produce other organic compounds needed for plant growth and development. It is produced during respiration by plants, and by all animals, fungi and microorganisms that depend either directly or indirectly on plants for food. It is thus a major component of the carbon cycle. Carbon dioxide is generated as a by-product of the combustion of fossil 7

fuels or the burning of vegetable matter, among other chemical processes. Small amounts of carbon dioxide are emitted from volcanoes and other geothermal processes such as hot springs and geysers and by the dissolution of carbonates in crustal rocks. As of March 2009, carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere is at a concentration of 387 ppm by volume. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide fluctuate slightly with the change of the seasons, driven primarily by seasonal plant growth in the Northern Hemisphere. Concentrations of carbon dioxide fall during the northern spring and summer as plants consume the gas, and rise during the northern autumn and winter as plants go dormant, die and decay. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas as it transmits visible light but absorbs strongly in the infrared and near-infrared. Carbon dioxide has no liquid state at pressures below 5.1 atmospheres. At 1 atmosphere (near mean sea level pressure), the gas deposits directly to a solid at temperatures below 78 C (108.4 F; 195.1 K) and the solid sublimes directly to a gas above 78 C. In its solid state, carbon dioxide is commonly called dry ice. CO2 is an acidic oxide: an aqueous solution turns litmus from blue to pink. It is the anhydride of carbonic acid, an acid which is unstable in aqueous solution, from which it cannot be concentrated. However can be produced by irradiating frozen mixtures of water and carbon dioxide in vacuum. In organisms carbonic acid production is catalysed by the enzyme, carbonic anhydrase. 2.1.1.2. Methane is a chemical compound with the chemical formula CH4. It is the degrees. Burning methane in the presence of oxygen produces carbon dioxide and water. The relative abundance of methane makes it an attractive fuel. However, because it is a gas at normal temperature and

simplest alkane, and the principal component of natural gas. Methane's bond angles are 109.5

pressure, methane is difficult to transport from its source. In its natural gas form, it is generally transported in bulk by pipeline or LNG carriers; few countries transport it by truck. 8

Methane was discovered and isolated by Alessandro Volta between 1776 and 1778 when studying marsh gas from Lake Maggiore. Methane is a relatively potent greenhouse gas. Compared with carbon dioxide, it has a high global warming potential of 72 (calculated over a period of 20 years) or 25 (for a time period of 100 years). Methane in the atmosphere is eventually oxidized, producing carbon dioxide and water. As a result, methane in the atmosphere has a half life of seven years. The abundance of methane in the Earth's atmosphere in 1998 was 1745 parts per billion (ppb), up from 700 ppb in 1750. By 2008, however, global methane levels, which had stayed mostly flat since 1998, had risen to 1,800 ppb. By 2010, methane levels, at least in the arctic, were measured at 1850 ppb, a level scientists described as being higher than at any time in the previous 400,000 years. (Historically, methane concentrations in the world's atmosphere have ranged between 300 and 400 ppb during glacial periods commonlly known as ice ages, and between 600 to 700 ppb during the warm interglacial periods). In addition, there is a large, but unknown, amount of methane in methane clathrates in the ocean floors. The Earth's crust contains huge amounts of methane. Large amounts of methane are produced anaerobically by methanogenesis. Other sources include mud volcanoes, which are connected with deep geological faults, landfill and livestock (primarily ruminants) from enteric fermentation. 2.1.1.3. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful greenhouse gas produced both naturally and

by human activities. Its concentration in the Earth's atmosphere has risen by around 15% since the Industrial Revolution. Atmospheric mixing ratios for nitrous oxide now stand at around 315 parts per billion (ppb) compared to a pre-industrial high of 275ppb. Though its concentration the atmosphere is much smaller than that of carbon dioxide, N2O is a much more effective greenhouse gas having a Global Warming Potential of 296 over a 100-year time span. This means that 1kg of N2O released into the atmosphere has a global warming effect equivalent to 296 kg of carbon dioxide over a 100 year period.

2.2.

Climate models

Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). In addition to human-caused emissions, some models also include a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows a positive 9

feedback, though this response is uncertain. Some observational studies also show a positive feedback. Including uncertainties in future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate sensitivity, the IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1 C to 6.4 C (2.0 F to 11.5 F) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 19801999. Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models based on physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer. Although they attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. All modern climate models are in fact combinations of models for different parts of the Earth. These include an atmospheric model for air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; an ocean model that predicts temperature, salt content, and circulation of ocean waters; models for ice cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and moisture transfer from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Some models also include treatments of chemical and biological processes. Warming due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases is not an assumption of the models; rather, it is an end result from the interaction of greenhouse gases with radiative transfer and other physical processes. Although much of the variation in model outcomes depends on the greenhouse gas emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a specific greenhouse gas concentration (climate sensitivity) varies depending on the model used. The representation of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models. The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates. Current climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate. Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. For example, observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted.

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2.3.

Attributed and expected effects

It is usually impossible to connect specific weather events to global warming. Instead, global warming is expected to cause changes in the overall distribution and intensity of events, such as changes to the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. Broader effects are expected to include glacial retreat, Arctic shrinkage including long-term shrinkage of the Greenland ice sheet, and worldwide sea level rise. Some effects on both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already being attributed to global warming. A Larsen Ice Shelf 2001 report by the IPCC suggests retreat, that ice glacier shelf

disruption such as that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and

increased intensity and frequency weather of extreme are

events

attributable in part to global warming. Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions precipitation in others, and changes in mountain snowpack. Social and economic effects of global warming may be exacerbated by growing population densities in affected areas. It is expected that the health benefits of climate change (e.g., fewer deaths from cold exposure) will be outweighed by negative health effects (e.g., increased levels of malnutrition), especially in developing countries. A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. According to this report, there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature (see Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the quality of records prior to routine satellite and increased

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observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones. Additional expected effects include sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 ft) in 20902100 relative to 19801999, new trade routes resulting from arctic shrinkage, possible thermohaline circulation slowing, increasingly intense, in some locations, (but less frequent) hurricanes and extreme weather events, reductions in the ozone layer, changes in agriculture yields, and ocean oxygen depletion. Increased atmospheric CO2 increases the amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans. CO2 dissolved in the ocean reacts with water to form carbonic acid, resulting in ocean acidification. Ocean surface pH is estimated to have decreased from 8.25 near the beginning of the industrial era to 8.14 by 2004, and is projected to decrease by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs more CO2. Heat and carbon dioxide trapped in the oceans may still take hundreds of years to be re-emitted, even after greenhouse gas emissions are eventually reduced. Since organisms and ecosystems are adapted to a narrow range of pH, this raises extinction concerns and disruptions in food webs. One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections. However, few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change, and one study suggests that projected rates of extinction are uncertain.

2.4.

Responses to global warming

The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase has led some nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement responses. These responses to global warming can be divided into mitigation of the causes and effects of global warming, adaptation to the changing global environment, and geoengineering to reverse global warming. Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate of anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. The world's primary international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the Kyoto Protocol, now covers more than 160 countries and over 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. As of February 2010, only the United States, historically the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to ratify the treaty. The treaty expires in 2012. International talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current one. The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference met in

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Copenhagen in December 2009 to agree on a framework for climate change mitigation. No binding agreement was made. There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve energy efficiency and limited moves towards use of alternative fuels. In January 2005 the European Union introduced its European Union Emission Trading Scheme, through which companies in conjunction with government agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances. Australia announced its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2008. United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce an economy-wide cap and trade scheme. Adaptation: A wide variety of measures have been suggested for adaptation to global warming, including: water conservation, water rationing, adaptive agricultural practices including diversification, construction of flood defenses, changes to medical care, and interventions to protect threatened species. The capacity and potential for human systems to adapt is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations. The economic costs of adaptation are potentially large, but also largely unknown. Across the literature, there is wide agreement that adaptation will be more difficult for larger magnitudes and higher rates of climate change. Geoengineering is the concept of planetary engineering applied to Earth: i.e. the deliberate modification of Earth's natural environment on a large scale to suit human needs. An example is greenhouse gas remediation, which removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, usually through carbon sequestration techniques such as carbon dioxide air capture. Solar radiation management reduces absorbed solar radiation, such as by the addition of stratospheric sulfur aerosols or cool roof techniques. No geoengineering projects of significant scale have been implemented, and detailed study has largely been the work of small numbers of scientists; but various significant institutions such as the Royal Society and ImechE (Institution of Mechanical Engineers) have recently suggested that further study is warranted. Their various externalities and other costs are seen as major issues, and the idea or concern that one country could act unilaterally has also been raised. The government is doing many things to help stop global warming. The government made a law called The Clean Air Act so there is less air pollution. Global warming is making people get very bad illnesses that could make them disabled, very sick, and sometimes even die. The Clean Air Act is making many companies change their products to decrease these 13

problems. Part of the law says that you may not put a certain amount of pollutants in the air. Hairspray and some other products, like foam cups, had this problem. Making and using these products let out too much volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ozone-destroying chemicals (chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and related chemicals (such as CO2) into the air. Now, almost all of these products have a label on them telling people what this product can do to the environment and many people. Almost all of the other chemicals that could be harmful will have this label on them hopefully by this time (2015) as well. The Clean Air Act has also made car companies change some of the things inside of the cars. Cars pollute a lot. While cars make more than half of the worlds smog (visible pollution in the air), many things that cars need to move and heat up make even more pollution. Some things that are inside of cars, buses, trucks, and motorcycles, like gasoline, pollute the air when the fuel is burned. It comes out as a chemical and when mixed in the air, forms smog. Smog is a kind of pollution that you see in the form of a cloud. If you have ever been to California you can see a lot of smog in some places. Sometimes the smog gets so bad that you cannot see at all! Smog forms when car exhaust, pollution from homes, and pollution from factories mixes in the air and has a chemical reaction. The suns heat and light add to the reaction. Cars, buses, and trucks are also responsible for over 50% of dangerous chemicals let into the air. Some of these chemicals can cause cancer, birth defects, trouble breathing, brain and nerve damage, lung injures, and burning eyes. Some of the pollutants are so harmful that they can even cause death. Although adults do many things to help stop global warming, kids can do just as much. Kids cant do hard things like making a law, but they can do easier things like not watching as much TV. You can listen to your parents when they say, turn off your lights or go play outside. Listening to them and actually trying to help can help you, your environment, and the world.

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3. Conclusion
Global warming is basically the earth heating up and increasing in carbon dioxide. When light from the sun reaches the earth 30 percent of it is reflected back into space. The remaining 70 percent of the light is absorbed by land, air, and oceans heating are planets surface and atmosphere. There are some effects on global warming like temperatures, rising sea levels, and sever storms. Global warming will result in more hot days and fewer cold days, more intense heat waves will become more frequent. Rising sea levels will erode coasts and cause more coastal flooding, hurricanes will likely increase in intensity due to warmer ocean surface temperatures and increases in rainfall will come in the form of bigger, wetter storms. There are many people that agree global warming is happening and on the other hand there are many people who believe global warming is a great big lie. Paleoclimate readings deciphered from fossil records and ice cores have shown that these two most greenhouse gases are at their highest levels. The national wildlife federation considers global warming to be the most dangerous threat to the future of wildlife. There are some species being dramatically impacted by global warming like the Adelie Penguins, Caribou, Monarch Butterflies, Migratory Songbirds, Polar Bears, Coral Reefs, and the Arctic Foxes. The cause of global warming is human activity, including fossil fuel combustion associated with industrial development, the burning of forest by farmers in the developing world, biomass combustion, the burning of wood and coal, and heat by the poor. People can do a lot to stop global warming. They can do things like being more careful about leaving things turned on like the television, computer, and the lights. A lot of people are taking time away from the television, and instead, they are spending more time outdoors. This helps our planet out a lot. Now, more people are even riding busses, walking to school, and riding their bikes to lower the amount of greenhouse gases in the air. Planting trees and recycling also helps. If you recycle, less trash goes to the dump, and less trash gets burned. As a result, there are fewer greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere.

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4. Literature
1. 2. 3. 4. http://library.thinkquest.org/CR0215471/global_warming.htm http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/aboutwarm.html http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/kids/greenhouse.html http://unsweducation.wikispaces.com/file/view/greenhouse_effect.png/83618879/green house_effect.png 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane http://www.globalwarming.org/ http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nitrous_oxide http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Airs_methane_2006_2009_359hpa.png

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