PROSPECTS FOR THE PHILIPPINES: THE ROUGH ROAD TO CHANGE BY VICE PRESIDENT JEJOMAR C.

BINAY REMARKS AT THE FOCAP FORUM 19 JANUARY 2012 I

MUST CONFESS TO SOME

MISGIVINGS ABOUT YOUR CHOICE OF GUEST AND

TOPIC FOR

THIS OCCASION.

THE TOPIC YOU HAVE CHOSEN---PROSPECTS FOR THE PHILIPPINES: THE ROUGH ROAD TO CHANGE---IS A FORMIDABLE ONE, AND THE SUBTOPICS YOU WANT HIGHLIGHTED ON THE ECONOMY, NATIONAL SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY MAKE IT EVEN MORE SO. THE MOST PRESIDENT
AUTHORITATIVE OFFICIAL STATEMENT ON THIS SUBJECT CAN ONLY COME FROM THE HIMSELF OR, IN HIS ABSENCE,

THE CABINET. OBVIOUSLY I

AM NEITHER.

SO WHILE I AM PLEASED TO PLACE MYSELF AT YOUR DISPOSAL, I HOPE THE FOREIGN CORRESPONDENTS ASSOCIATION OF THE PHILIPPINES (FOCAP) WILL NOT BE FAULTED FOR CHOOSING SOMEONE WITH LESS THAN PERFECT CREDENTIALS FOR THIS IMPORTANT FORUM. AS VICE PRESIDENT, I SIT IN THE CABINET AS CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT COORDINATING COUNCIL (HUDCC), PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER ON OVERSEAS FILIPINO WORKERS CONCERNS, CHAIRMAN EMERITUS OF THE INTER-AGENCY COMMITTEE AGAINST TRAFFICKING (IACAT), AND HEAD OF THE TASK FORCE AGAINST ILLEGAL RECRUITMENT. IT I
IS A HOPE

24/7 I

JOB THAT LEAVES ME VERY LITTLE TIME FOR ANYTHING ELSE.

HAVE RESPONDED AND CONTINUE TO RESPOND ADEQUATELY TO THE MULTI-FACETED

AND EVER-GROWING DEMANDS OF THE PUBLIC.

BUT

OUTSIDE OF MY SPECIFIC AREAS OF

RESPONSIBILITY, MY VIEWS ON ANYTHING ELSE MUST ADMIT OF VERY SERIOUS LIMITATIONS.

ANY

IDEA OR INSIGHT WHICH

MAY HAVE ON ANY ISSUE NOT GERMANE TO MY OFFICIAL DUTIES OF POLICY AND THE GENERAL

CAN ONLY HAVE A PERSUASIVE EFFECT ON THE CRAFTING CONDUCT OF GOVERNMENT.

WITH WHAT

THAT UNDERSTANDING,

NOW PUT MYSELF IN YOUR HANDS.

ARE THE DECISIONS THAT

WITH TO HARNESS THE UPHEAVALS AROUND

PRESIDENT AQUINO AND HIS ADMINISTRATION MUST GRAPPLE PHILIPPINES POTENTIAL AMID THE POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SECURITY THE WORLD? THIS IS YOUR FIRST BIG QUESTION.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC BREAKDOWN, WHICH BEGAN IN 2008 IN THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE, HAS CAUSED AN IRRESISTIBLE SHIFT OF ECONOMIC POWERSOFT POWER---FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST, FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE ASIA PACIFIC. WE MUST BENEFIT

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FROM THAT SHIFT.

THE

2050, CHINA WILL BECOME THE WORLDS UNDISPUTED ECONOMIC LEADER, SURPASSING THE UNITED STATES. INDIA WILL OVERTAKE JAPAN AND GERMANY, FALLING JUST A LITTLE BEHIND THE UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL RESEARCH DEPARTMENT OF HSBC PREDICTS THAT THE PHILIPPINES WILL LEAPFROG 27 PLACES TO BECOME THE WORLDS 16 LARGEST ECONOMY.
UNCHALLENGED CONSENSUS IS THAT BY THE YEAR
TH

THIS

FORECAST CANNOT POSSIBLY BE BASED ON FUTURE POLICY DECISIONS, WHICH NOBODY

KNOWS TODAY.

IT

CAN ONLY BE BASED ON CERTAIN BASIC COUNTRY STRENGTHS WHICH, IF

SUSTAINED, CAN ONLY BRING ABOUT THE PREDICTED RESULTS.

WHAT
LATER.

MAY THESE BE?

THE

FIRST THINGS THAT INSTANTLY COME TO MIND ARE DEMOGRAPHY

AND DEMOCRACY.

WILL SAY SOMETHING ABOUT DEMOGRAPHY FIRST, AND ABOUT DEMOCRACY

DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY, TO QUOTE AN ONLINE WEBSITE. BY 2050, THERE WILL BE MORE SIXTY-FIVE YEAR OLDS AND ABOVE THAN FIFTEEN YEAR OLDS AND BELOW IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD. THE DEMOGRAPHIC WINTER WILL HAVE BECOME A FULL-BLOWN AND UNDENIABLE REALITY IN ALL OF EUROPE, RUSSIA, JAPAN AND MOST OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD. THE PHILIPPINES, WEST. BUT
THIS OPPORTUNITY NEEDS TO BE NOURISHED AND SUSTAINED BY THE CORRECT POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL POLICIES IN THE NEXT FORTY YEARS. SUSTAINING BEGINS TODAY. WITH

ITS YOUNGER

WORK FORCE AND ITS DYNAMIC AND STILL SELF-

RENEWING POPULATION, EQUIPPED WITH KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNICAL SKILL, WILL HAVE EVERY UNIMPEDED OPPORTUNITY TO FORGE AHEAD, WITHOUT THE DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS OF THE

AND

THIS NOURISHING AND

WE

NEED TO PROTECT AND SAFEGUARD OUR POPULATION AGAINST THE DANGERS

THAT

BROUGHT ABOUT THE IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE OF THE WOMEN; WE NEED TO

WEST. WE

NEED TO

INVEST IN OUR

FAMILIES, IN THE EDUCATION, TRAINING, AND HEALTH CARE BIG COMPETITIVE EDGE IN THE GLOBAL MARKET.

ESPECIALLY OF OUR YOUTH AND

EQUIP THEM WITH SUFFICIENT SKILLS AND WORK HABITS TO GIVE THEM A

WE WE

HAVE THE RESOURCES TO MAKE THE COUNTRY A LEADING CENTER OF INFORMATION MUST EXPLOIT THOSE RESOURCES TO THE FULLEST. ONLY TWO OF THE PRIMARY INDUSTRIES WE

TECHNOLOGY AND KNOWLEDGE, AND A FAVORED DESTINATION FOR INVESTMENTS AND TOURISM.

TOURISM AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ARE

MUST DEVELOP TO SUSTAIN OUR DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH. CREATE ENOUGH NEW AND HIGHLY PAYING JOBS TO KEEP THEIR FAMILIES HERE

BUT

THESE TWO ALONE CAN

OUR BEST MEN AND WOMEN WITH

RATHER THAN ABROAD, AND PUT US HEAD TO HEAD WITH OUR

NEIGHBORS WHO ARE ALREADY FAR AHEAD OF US IN THESE FIELDS. SINGLE-MINDED IN CREATING OUR OWN ADVANTAGE.

WE

ONLY

NEED TO BE

WE

NEED TO SPEND ENOUGH ON THE FUTURE.

IF

WE DO NOT HAVE THE BASIC RESOURCES,

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WE MUST HAVE THE WILL TO CREATE DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH. FOCUS ON OUR PRIORITIES. THOSE RESOURCES THAT WILL ULTIMATELY GENERATE PRIORITY.

THE

HUMAN BEING IS OUR FIRST AND LAST RESOURCE; WE MUST

INVEST IN OUR HUMAN POPULATION, AS A MATTER OF FIRST

WE

MUST LEARN TO

WE THIS
ALL

MUST LEARN NOT ONLY TO START PROJECTS, BUT ABOVE ALL TO FINISH WHAT WE START

AND TO MAINTAIN WHAT WE FINISH, ACCORDING TO THE HIGHEST STANDARDS. ENTAILS NOT ONLY A PLAN OR PROGRAM WITH IMPLEMENTING DETAILS.

IT

ENTAILS ABOVE

A SPECIFIC ETHIC, WITHOUT WHICH NO PLAN OR PROGRAM OR PROJECT COULD HAVE ANY

MEANINGFUL OR LASTING EFFECT.

THE

FORECAST FOR

2050

SHOULD NOT BLIND US TO THE REALITY OF OUR PRESENT EVERYTHING----CLIMATE

SITUATION.

CRISIS

PERSISTS, AND IT IS A GLOBAL CRISIS. IT COVERS

AND THE ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY, PERSISTENT POVERTY, INCREASING INEQUALITY, DEFICIENCIES IN GOVERNANCE AND ACCOUNTABILITY IN A WIDE RANGE OF ORGANIZATIONS AND ACTIVITIES, FROM LOCAL TO INTERNATIONAL.

EACH

OF THESE GLOBAL PROBLEMS HAS A DOMESTIC DIMENSION, IF NOT ORIGIN.

THUS,

IT

STANDS TO REASON THAT WHILE OUR POLICIES MUST BE ROOTED FIRMLY ON THE LOCAL EARTH, THEY MUST BE FRAMED FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE.

FUTURE

COOPERATION BETWEEN AND AMONG NATIONS WILL BE FORGED, AND FUTURE INTERWILL MOST LIKELY BE FOUGHT OVER THE MOST BASIC

STATE CONFLICTS AND WARS

RESOURCES---BASIC METALS, ENERGY, FOOD AND WATER. OF DOLLARS ARE BEING EXPENDED IN CONSTRUCTION OF LONG PIPELINES TO FROM ONE COUNTRY TO ANOTHER.

AS OF NOW, HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS ASIA, EURASIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST ON THE TRANSPORT OIL, GAS AND PROBABLY EVENTUALLY WATER,

THE

DEBATE ON WHAT ENERGY SOURCE SHOULD DOMINATE THE FUTURE HAS BECOME OPEN-

ENDED.

BUT

THE ATTEMPT OF THE MAJOR PLAYERS TO CONTROL THE SUPPLY OF GAS AND OIL,

NOT TO MENTION NUCLEAR ENERGY, PERSISTS.

OUR

THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT WHAT WE ONCE KNEW AS THE GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR (GWOT) COULD MORPH FULLY INTO A GLOBAL ENERGY WAR. WE CANNOT ESCAPE THIS. WITTINGLY OR UNWITTINGLY, WE SHALL FIND OURSELVES PART OF IT. THIS REQUIRES A COMPREHENSIVE
POLICY PLANNERS MUST BE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM THAT LOOKS TO OUR MINERAL AND ENERGY RESOURCES ON LAND AND OFFSHORE AS THE FOUNDATION OF DEVELOPMENT. OUR STRATEGY FOR NATIONAL DEFENSE AND

TO THIS DEVELOPMENT.

HOW

CAN WE CUSHION THE IMPACT OF THE EURO-ZONE DEBT CRISIS AND THE WEAK

US

ECONOMY ON LOCAL INDUSTRIES AND QUESTION.

OVERSEAS FILIPINO

WORKERS?

THAT

IS YOUR NEXT BIG

WILL NOT WANT TO

USURP THE AUTHORITY OF THE

CENTRAL BANK

GOVERNOR OR OUR

ECONOMIC MANAGERS BY QUESTION.

RESPONDING TO THE MONETARY AND FINANCIAL ASPECT OF THIS

BUT I

AM PREPARED TO LEARN FROM THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE

2010 UN COMMISSION

4 FINANCIAL EXPERTS HEADED BY THE NOBEL PRIZE LAUREATE STIGLITZ, AND TASKED TO PROPOSE REFORMS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMS IN THE WAKE OF THE GLOBAL CRISIS.
OF IN ECONOMICS

JOSEF E.

MONETARY AND FINANCIAL

THE STIGLITZ THE

REPORT TALKS OF THE CAUSES OF THE CRISIS.

IT

COULD SERVE AS A HELPFUL

GUIDE IN AVOIDING THE FULL IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL TURBULENCE. REPORT POINTS OUT THAT BECAUSE POOR COUNTRIES HAVE ALMOST NO SAY IN DESIGNING

THE RULES OF THE GAME, MANY RULES THAT ARE SUPPOSEDLY INTENDED TO BENEFIT THEM EVENTUALLY END UP HARMING THEM INSTEAD.

THE REPORT

ALSO NOTES THAT THE UNREGULATED FINANCIAL SECTOR HAS SYSTEMATICALLY

FAILED TO PERFORM ITS KEY ROLE OF ALLOCATING CAPITAL AND MANAGING RISK AT LOW TRANSACTION COST.

ONE

MAJOR PROBLEM IS THAT ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION HAS OUTPACED THE DEVELOPMENT OF

POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS REQUIRED TO MANAGE IT WELL. NEITHER GLOBALIZATION NOR FINANCIAL MARKETS HAVE

THE REPORTS NET PERFORMED WELL.

VERDICT IS THAT

ONE

APPARENT ADVANTAGE IN OUR FAVOR IS THAT BECAUSE WE HAVE NOT BEEN FULLY

GLOBALIZED, THE GLOBALIZATION OF UNREGULATED MARKETS AND FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS HAS FAILED TO AFFECT US AS MUCH AS IT HAS HARMED OTHERS.

THE

CHALLENGE TO US NOW IS HOW TO PROTECT OUR ECONOMY NOT ONLY FROM THE

EXTERNAL POLICIES THAT BROUGHT ABOUT THE GLOBAL CRISIS, BUT ALSO FROM THE POLICIES THAT SOME COUNTRIES HAVE ADOPTED OR WILL ADOPT IN ORDER TO GET OUT OF THE CRISIS EASIER AND FASTER.

THESE WHAT THE

COULD INCLUDE POLICIES THAT BREED UNFAIR COMPETITION, AND CREATE UNFAIR

SUBSIDIES AND REGULATIONS THAT ALLOW THEIR EXPORTS TO BEAT ALL COMPETITION. DO WE DO THEN?

EUROPE, THE US, AND ALL WE HAVE TO DO MORE, AND AT A FASTER RATE, OF THE THINGS WE HAVE BEEN DOING WELL, KNOWING THAT THE REST OF THE WORLD WILL NOT BE IN A CRISIS FOREVER. WE HAVE TO HAVE A HOLISTIC APPROACH TO DEVELOPMENT,
GLOBAL CRISIS GIVES US LEAD TIME TO DO BETTER THAN THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN HIT THE HARDEST. WITH THE END IN VIEW OF GIVING THE WORLD A SURPRISE ABOUT WHAT WE CAN DO BEYOND WHAT THE EXPERTS PREDICT.

WE
ITS

NEED TO TRANSFORM OUR NATION IN EVERY WAY---FROM ITS SPIRIT AND SUBSTANCE---AND THIS WE CAN BEGIN TO DO BY

PHYSICAL APPEARANCE TO

GIVING EVERYONE A CHANCE

TO OWN A HOME AND A LIVELIHOOD AND MAKING THEM REAL PART-OWNERS OF THE ECONOMY, AS WE ARE TRYING TO DO AT

HUDCC.

WE WE

MUST PUT EVERYONE

TO WORK, BUILD A STRONG ENTREPRENEURIAL CLASS, AND TURN THE

NATION INTO A NATION OF PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS. HAVE TO CREATE AN EDUCATED, HIGHLY SKILLED, AND DEPENDABLE WORK FORCE, SO

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THAT WHEREVER OUR WORKERS GO, THEY WOULD BE PREPARED TO COMPETE WITH THE BEST

AND MAKE A GENUINE CONTRIBUTION TO THE ECONOMY.

WE

HAVE TO BUILD A COSMOPOLITAN COUNTRY WHERE AGRICULTURE IS NOT PURSUED AT THE INDUSTRY NOR THE COUNTRYSIDE COMPLETELY OBLITERATED BY THE CITY, AND AND WORKERS ARE WELCOME TO PARTICIPATE IN EVERY POSSIBLE CAPITAL

EXPENSE OF FOREIGN

UNDERTAKING EXCEPT PERHAPS THOSE DIRECTLY RELATED TO NATIONAL SECURITY.

WE

HAVE TO TRANSMIT TO THE FUTURE A WORKING CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY THAT HAS CORRUPTION A NEARLY

PERMANENTLY OUTLAWED CORRUPTION NOT ONLY BY GOING AFTER THE CORRUPT BUT ABOVE ALL BY ELIMINATING BAD LAWS AND BAD STRUCTURES THAT HAD GIVEN PERMANENT REFUGE.

AS

IT MUST BUT WE MUST ALL REALIZE IT IS UNDER SERIOUS STRESS TODAY. WRITING IN THE JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2012 ISSUE OF FOREIGN POLICY, ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR UNDER US PRESIDENT JIMMY CARTER AND AUTHOR OF THE FORTHCOMING BOOK, STRATEGIC VISION: AMERICA AND THE CRISIS OF GLOBAL POWER, SAYS THAT WITH THE DECLINE OF AMERICAN POWER, DEMOCRACY EVERYWHERE WILL BE ON TRIAL. A HOBBESIAN WORLD OF ENHANCED NATIONAL SECURITY BASED ON VARYING FUSIONS OF AUTHORITARIANISM, NATIONALISM AND RELIGION COULD ENSUE. WEAKER COUNTRIES WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE ASSERTIVE INFLUENCE OF MAJOR REGIONAL POWERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR REGIONAL CONFLICT IS REAL. GLOBAL REALITY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE SURVIVAL OF THE STRONGEST.
SURVIVE ALL CHALLENGES AND PITFALLS.

A NATION, DEMOCRACY SHOULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ITEM IN OUR RESUME.

THIS

OUR FUTURE SECURITY, IN THE FACE OF OUR CHINA AND OUR STILL UNLIQUIDATED NATIONAL INSURGENCIES. THERE IS STILL NO SUBSTITUTE FOR DIPLOMACY IN RESOLVING THESE ISSUES, AND GREATER PATIENCE AND RESOLVE ARE STILL OUR BEST OPTIONS TO ADOPT, AFTER INITIAL PEACE EFFORTS HAVE FAILED TO END THE INSURGENCIES. WE JUST HAVE TO KEEP ON TRYING UNTIL WE SUCCEED.
NECESSARILY RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT TERRITORIAL DISPUTE WITH

BUT

FOR DEMOCRACY TO WORK, WE NEED DEMOCRATS WHO WILL MAKE ITS INSTITUTIONS

WORK.

EVEN

AS WE MEET HERE TODAY,

WHERE THE IMPEACHMENT TRIAL OF

THIS THESIS IS BEING TESTED IN THE SENATE, CHIEF JUSTICE RENATO CORONA IS TAKING PLACE.

THIS IS THE SECOND TIME IN 12 YEARS THAT WE ARE WITNESSING SUCH A PROCESS. IN 2000, THE FIRST SENATE IMPEACHMENT TRIAL WAS HELD AGAINST A SITTING PRESIDENT, JOSEPH EJERCITO ESTRADA. THAT TRIAL, HOWEVER, WAS NOT COMPLETED. THE
PROSECUTION HAD WANTED THE IMPEACHMENT COURT TO ADMIT CERTAIN EVIDENCE VOLUNTEERED BY OUTSIDE PARTIES WITHOUT A COURT SUBPOENA, AND INTENDED TO PROVE A CHARGE WHICH, IN THE JUDGMENT OF THE MAJORITY OF THE THE ORIGINAL

SENATOR-JUDGES, WAS NOT IN ARTICLES OF IMPEACHMENT. WHEN THE IMPEACHMENT COURT REFUSED TO ADMIT THE EVIDENCE, THE PROSECUTORS WALKED OUT, AND THE ISSUE WAS FINALLY DECIDED AGAINST ESTRADA BY THE FIERCELY ANTI-ESTRADA CROWD AT EDSA. MANY OF US WERE EUPHORIC ABOUT THAT DECISION. BUT IT TOOK THE REST OF THE GLORIA MACAPAGAL ARROYO PRESIDENCY TO MAKE EVERYONE REALIZE THAT THE CONSTITUTIONAL SHORTCUT WAS A RUINOUS MISTAKE. IT WAS WRONG TO HAVE ALLOWED ENRAGED PUBLIC

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OPINION, RATHER THAN DUE PROCESS AND THE RULE OF LAW, TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS, AND TO

HAVE ALLOWED

THE IMPEACHMENT TRIAL TO BE

ABORTED BECAUSE OF PRESSURE FROM THE STREETS.

THE FACT THAT FORMER PRESIDENT ESTRADA TODAY APPEARS TO ENJOY WIDER PUBLIC SUPPORT THAN FORMER PRESIDENT ARROYO IS FURTHER CONFIRMATION OF THAT PAINFUL MISTAKE. IT SEEMS, THEREFORE, OBVIOUS THAT IF THERE IS ANYTHING WE COULD LEARN FROM THAT FIRST IMPEACHMENT TRIAL, IT IS THAT WE SHOULD NOT REPEAT ANY OF ITS MISTAKES. OUR
COMMON OBJECTIVE AND DESIRE SHOULD BE TO MAKE SURE THAT DUE PROCESS AND THE RULE OF LAW ARE OBSERVED, THAT JUSTICE IS SERVED AND OUR DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS PRESERVED, AND THAT AT THE END OF THE DAY, OUR PEOPLE STAND UNITED IN SUPPORTING THE JUST OUTCOME OF THE PROCESS, AND IN FORGING AHEAD.

THUS, UNLESS WE SEE A SERIOUS BREACH IN THE PROCEEDINGS, OUR COMMON TASK IS TO LEND TO THE SENATE TRIAL OUR ATTENTIVE AND RESPECTFUL SILENCE. IT IS IN OUR HIGHEST NATIONAL INTEREST THAT WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THIS IMPEACHMENT TRIAL, IT SHOULD SUCCEED AS A FAIR AND JUST CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS. THAT WOULD
DEFINE OUR MATURITY AS A DEMOCRACY AND OUR RIGHT AND FITNESS TO FORGE AHEAD AS AN INDEPENDENT

AND SOVEREIGN

STATE.

THANK

YOU AND GOOD MORNING.